Latest / Pod Save America / Supreme Court Refuses to Exonerate Trump for Jan. 6th
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Welcome to Pod Save America, I'm Jon Favreau I'm John Lovett.
- 0:22Speaker 2: I'm Tommy Vitor.
- 0:23Speaker 1: On today's show, Nikki Haley wins the D.C. primary and
- 0:26Speaker 1: won't commit to endorsing Trump.
- 0:28Speaker 3: She did it.
- 0:28Speaker 2: Great work, Nikki.
- 0:29Speaker 1: Joe Biden gets another batch of fun polls and gives
- 0:32Speaker 1: a long interview about his thinking on 2024. The Super
- 0:35Speaker 1: Tuesday contests include a big Senate primary right here in California.
- 0:38Speaker 1: And later, Congressman Ro Khanna talks to Tommy about Gaza,
- 0:42Speaker 1: the Democratic Party in 2024. Is that about right? Is
- 0:44Speaker 1: that what you covered?
- 0:45Speaker 4: Sure. Sure.
- 0:46Speaker 1: Talk crypto, too.
- 0:47Speaker 2: Talk about the California Senate primary a little bit, too.
- 0:49Speaker 1: That's cool.
- 0:50Speaker 2: I like him a lot.
- 0:51Speaker 5: All right.
- 0:52Speaker 1: But first, the Supreme Court issued a unanimous decision that
- 0:55Speaker 1: Donald Trump cannot be kicked off the ballot in Colorado
- 0:58Speaker 1: or any other state. All nine justices agreed that Section
- 1:01Speaker 1: 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bans insurrectionists from holding office,
- 1:05Speaker 1: cannot be enforced by individual states, which is what Colorado
- 1:09Speaker 1: tried to do after a federal court found that Trump
- 1:11Speaker 1: did engage in insurrection. But five justices went further, saying
- 1:15Speaker 1: that only Congress can disqualify a candidate for insurrection, which
- 1:18Speaker 1: Amy Coney Barrett and the court's three liberals disagreed with.
- 1:21Speaker 1: Trump responded with remarks at Mar-a-Lago, where he celebrated the
- 1:24Speaker 1: ruling and said he should be immune from prosecution for
- 1:26Speaker 1: trying to overturn the election.
- 1:28Speaker 6: I don't want to be prosecuted.
- 1:29Speaker 4: In that case, it worked out very well.
- 1:31Speaker 6: There will be some things that perhaps don't work out
- 1:35Speaker 6: so well, but I don't want to be prosecuted because
- 1:38Speaker 6: I decided to do something that is very much for
- 1:42Speaker 6: the good of the country and actually for the good
- 1:44Speaker 6: of the world.
- 1:44Speaker 1: It's for the good of the world. For the good
- 1:46Speaker 1: of the world.
- 1:48Speaker 2: Usually they don't prosecute you if you don't want to
- 1:50Speaker 2: be prosecuted.
- 1:51Speaker 1: And also if you've done something, if overturning the election
- 1:54Speaker 1: just happened to benefit the country and the world.
- 1:55Speaker 3: I feel like he was trying to combine things there
- 1:57Speaker 3: because I think what he's also saying there is, He's
- 1:59Speaker 3: referring to his farm policy and he's saying, I wouldn't want,
- 2:02Speaker 3: I mean, he's saying that, he's saying that his efforts
- 2:04Speaker 3: to overturn ISIS went well, but if it went poorly.
- 2:07Speaker 1: He could be prosecuted. Yeah, but the reason he's talking
- 2:08Speaker 1: about it is because.
- 2:09Speaker 2: No, of course, of course.
- 2:10Speaker 3: But that's just, yeah.
- 2:11Speaker 1: What do you guys think about the ruling and the
- 2:14Speaker 1: different opinions?
- 2:15Speaker 2: Anyone take the LSAT at this table? Did you, John?
- 2:17Speaker 2: I didn't.
- 2:18Speaker 1: Someone wants to go back and talk about his, relitigate
- 2:21Speaker 1: his debate with Larry Tribe.
- 2:23Speaker 3: All I'm just saying is, you know, Larry Tribe and I,
- 2:25Speaker 3: just difference of opinion, and nine Supreme Court justices agreed
- 2:28Speaker 3: with me unanimously, and only zero agreed with him. And
- 2:31Speaker 3: that's just how it works in the legal world. There's
- 2:32Speaker 3: just two legal scholars hashing it out. That's the beauty
- 2:35Speaker 3: of it. Socratic method. What was that paper chase? All right.
- 2:42Speaker 3: So here's what I thought the most interesting thing about
- 2:45Speaker 3: this is, they they decided unanimously except it had the
- 2:52Speaker 3: vibe of a group of people that hate each other
- 2:56Speaker 3: trying to keep it together at.
- 2:57Speaker 1: A restaurant well certainly you got that from amy coney barrett.
- 2:59Speaker 3: Well that's the best part so you have so so
- 3:01Speaker 3: basically you know you have this unanimous opinion and then
- 3:05Speaker 3: you have the three liberal justices saying you you guys
- 3:07Speaker 3: went way further than you need to It's done in
- 3:09Speaker 3: this very, like, kind of cheeky way where they're referring to, like,
- 3:12Speaker 3: they quote Dobbs back at Roberts. Dobbs' concurrence back at Roberts.
- 3:16Speaker 3: They quote Bush v.
- 3:17Speaker 2: Gore.
- 3:18Speaker 3: And then Amy Coney Barrett is like, I think the
- 3:20Speaker 3: most important thing is that we mostly agree. And I
- 3:22Speaker 3: don't think we need the tone, which is a new,
- 3:25Speaker 3: which is, I think, a new and fun role for her.
- 3:27Speaker 1: What do you think, Tommy?
- 3:29Speaker 2: Well, I mean, just so I think I understand it.
- 3:32Speaker 2: All the justices say that states can't unilaterally disqualify a
- 3:35Speaker 2: presidential candidate because that would lead to chaos. Kind of
- 3:38Speaker 2: makes sense. But then the liberals are frustrated the conservative
- 3:41Speaker 2: majority went too far by saying that Congress alone through
- 3:43Speaker 2: legislation may enforce Section 3, the bar on insurrectionists holding office.
- 3:48Speaker 2: But that doesn't make sense to everybody because the rest
- 3:50Speaker 2: of the 14th Amendment is supposed to be self-executing, meaning
- 3:52Speaker 2: you don't need congressional action for it to be law.
- 3:56Speaker 2: But all of a sudden, there's this special provision that
- 3:59Speaker 2: applies to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
- 4:03Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 4:03Speaker 1: Basically, the five justices were saying, okay, if we're going
- 4:09Speaker 1: to prevent someone from running because they engage in insurrection,
- 4:12Speaker 1: Congress has to pass a law, right? And the four
- 4:16Speaker 1: justices were like, we want to leave open the possibility
- 4:20Speaker 1: that someone can be disqualified by other federal action, federal courts, right?
- 4:26Speaker 1: Or something else. And they didn't understand why. And I
- 4:29Speaker 1: don't really understand why either. You would have Congress pass
- 4:32Speaker 1: a law when also in the provision, it says, someone
- 4:36Speaker 1: can be undisqualified from being an insurrectionist if Congress votes
- 4:40Speaker 1: by two-thirds to have them undisqualified. Requalified? Undisqualified? I don't
- 4:45Speaker 1: know how you say that.
- 4:46Speaker 2: The liberals think they did Trump a favor, basically.
- 4:48Speaker 3: Well, it just seems like what they've done, like, obviously,
- 4:51Speaker 3: this Congress is not passing any law to bar Donald
- 4:53Speaker 3: Trump and his fellow insurrectionists.
- 4:54Speaker 1: Even though Jamie Raskin said he's reviving that law, he's like,
- 4:57Speaker 1: the question is, will Mike Johnson put it on the floor?
- 4:59Speaker 1: The answer is no.
- 5:00Speaker 3: Yeah, it's like, okay, I mean, you know, you could
- 5:01Speaker 3: also just sort of, I don't know, go for a
- 5:03Speaker 3: walk or something.
- 5:04Speaker 2: But no, but I'm supportive. Do it. Do it.
- 5:06Speaker 3: Get it on the record.
- 5:07Speaker 2: Get it on the record.
- 5:08Speaker 3: But yeah, no, just there's just no because there's no law.
- 5:12Speaker 3: They're just basically saying we don't want to deal with
- 5:13Speaker 3: this again. We're all set for a while.
- 5:14Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 5:15Speaker 1: And again, you know, imagine the Alabama Supreme Court, the
- 5:20Speaker 1: same one that gave us the IVF ruling, decide that
- 5:23Speaker 1: some wacko court in Alabama that disqualified Joe Biden because
- 5:28Speaker 1: they think he's an insurrectionist. And now they're going to
- 5:30Speaker 1: keep him off the ballot. And I mean, like, you
- 5:31Speaker 1: just can't. It is, I get it. I get why
- 5:35Speaker 1: one state can't do that.
- 5:36Speaker 3: Yeah, like that part of it to me, look, I
- 5:38Speaker 3: was always sort of really skeptical about how this would
- 5:40Speaker 3: work in practice and the kind of chaos it would unleash.
- 5:42Speaker 3: And it was just sort of like, yeah, like this
- 5:43Speaker 3: would be like, no, you can't, there's sort of a
- 5:45Speaker 3: tone in the thing.
- 5:46Speaker 1: It was like, no, this is insane.
- 5:47Speaker 2: Like, what are you crazy? Which I was always like, but.
- 5:50Speaker 3: The second part, yeah, it's like the whole like John
- 5:52Speaker 3: Roberts is an institutionalist and he cares about the kind
- 5:56Speaker 3: of the reputation and dignity and prestige of the court.
- 6:01Speaker 3: You feel like, I don't know, you just feel in
- 6:03Speaker 3: this document, like this place where nine of them agree
- 6:06Speaker 3: on the top line issue, like, oh, this place is
- 6:08Speaker 3: a snake pit. These people fucking hate each other.
- 6:11Speaker 2: It doesn't seem fun.
- 6:12Speaker 1: I think the majority, I think, was worried about what
- 6:17Speaker 1: happens if Trump is convicted before the election, and then
- 6:23Speaker 1: suddenly they're like, okay, well, it's not the Colorado court anymore.
- 6:26Speaker 1: He was convicted in a federal court of election subversion,
- 6:30Speaker 1: and now can he be barred from actually serving even
- 6:33Speaker 1: though he won the election. And they didn't want that
- 6:35Speaker 1: to happen.
- 6:35Speaker 3: And now, so, and then somebody, somehow it comes before them.
- 6:38Speaker 3: It's after the election, Donald Trump has won.
- 6:40Speaker 1: I think the other thing to keep in mind here,
- 6:43Speaker 1: they pointedly declined to absolve Trump of having engaged in insurrection.
- 6:48Speaker 1: They didn't say a word about the Colorado court's finding,
- 6:51Speaker 1: which Trump had wanted them to. And so- They didn't
- 6:55Speaker 1: touch it. They didn't touch it. And it's like, look,
- 6:57Speaker 1: that would have been obviously a sticky wicket. But they
- 7:01Speaker 1: could have, if the fix was really in, all of
- 7:04Speaker 1: the conservatives on the court could have said, okay, we're
- 7:06Speaker 1: also going to overturn the Colorado finding that he engaged
- 7:09Speaker 1: in insurrection. They could have done it.
- 7:10Speaker 2: The question that you guys are all wondering right now is,
- 7:13Speaker 2: will strict scrutiny record an episode on this?
- 7:15Speaker 3: And I want to let you know they already have.
- 7:17Speaker 1: You've probably already listened to it.
- 7:18Speaker 2: You're going to get something a lot better than what
- 7:20Speaker 2: you just heard. Don't you worry.
- 7:21Speaker 3: Hey, hey, hey, different, different.
- 7:23Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 7:24Speaker 2: More fact-based.
- 7:25Speaker 1: Go check it out. Trump also won the Missouri, Michigan,
- 7:28Speaker 1: and Idaho Republican caucuses over the weekend, sweeping all 125
- 7:31Speaker 1: delegates at stake. He then gave a speech at a
- 7:33Speaker 1: rally in Virginia, one of the Super Tuesday states, where
- 7:36Speaker 1: he bragged about purging the Republican Party of moderates and
- 7:39Speaker 1: once again demonstrated his mental fitness for office.
- 7:41Speaker 8: And they say, always trying to demean, well, MAGA really
- 7:45Speaker 8: represents 48% of the Republican Party. No, it represents 96%
- 7:49Speaker 8: and maybe 100%. We're getting rid of the Romneys of
- 7:53Speaker 8: the world. We want to get Romneys and those out.
- 7:58Speaker 8: And Putin, you know, has so little respect for Obama
- 8:01Speaker 8: that he's starting to throw around the nuclear word today.
- 8:03Speaker 4: You heard that, nuclear.
- 8:05Speaker 6: He's starting to talk nuclear.
- 8:07Speaker 8: You have to see the chart.
- 8:08Speaker 4: They're like this.
- 8:10Speaker 3: And we're like, ding, boom, this is me.
- 8:13Speaker 4: I hear, bing.
- 8:15Speaker 3: I got to put that chart up for people.
- 8:18Speaker 8: Heard that Saudi Arabia and Russia will repeat your.
- 8:26Speaker 1: I watched that last clip so many times. It's so
- 8:29Speaker 1: funny when he just.
- 8:31Speaker 2: What happened to it? Did it just glitch out?
- 8:33Speaker 1: I don't know. I have gotten a little, okay, we
- 8:37Speaker 1: get it. Every time Trump says one wrong word now,
- 8:39Speaker 1: we're all like, see, he's senile. It's a little much.
- 8:42Speaker 1: That one, he definitely... That was a good one. That
- 8:45Speaker 1: was wild. So the Obama flub got more attention, but
- 8:49Speaker 1: I feel like the comments about Republicans could be more
- 8:52Speaker 1: damaging in the long run.
- 8:53Speaker 2: I don't know.
- 8:53Speaker 1: What do you guys think?
- 8:54Speaker 2: I mean, traditionally in a campaign, you want to grow
- 8:57Speaker 2: your coalition, not shrink it, and... Telling Mitt Romney that
- 9:01Speaker 2: he's not allowed to be a Republican anymore is not
- 9:03Speaker 2: the best way forward. I mean, also, there's a lot
- 9:05Speaker 2: of data suggesting there are Republicans who are not going
- 9:07Speaker 2: to vote for Trump. The AP VoteCast survey of the
- 9:10Speaker 2: Republican primary and caucuses found two in 10 Iowa voters
- 9:13Speaker 2: say they won't vote for Trump in the general election.
- 9:15Speaker 2: Thirty three percent of New Hampshire voters, 25 percent of
- 9:18Speaker 2: South Carolina voters, one in 10 Republicans. early state voters
- 9:22Speaker 2: who voted for Trump in the 2020 general election said
- 9:24Speaker 2: they wouldn't do so again. So this is a political
- 9:27Speaker 2: risk for him, and he's just leaning right into it.
- 9:29Speaker 1: Also, in most of these exit polls in these primaries,
- 9:32Speaker 1: at least somewhere around half of the Republican primary voters
- 9:36Speaker 1: or the people who participated in the Republican primary said
- 9:38Speaker 1: that they didn't think of themselves as MAGA.
- 9:40Speaker 3: Yeah, this is the Times poll that just came out.
- 9:42Speaker 3: Among likely voters, 23% of Trump's vote is coming from moderates.
- 9:45Speaker 3: 15% of people voting third party identify as Republicans, far
- 9:48Speaker 3: more than Democrats are voting for third party.
- 9:51Speaker 1: I'd certainly like to show that clip to as many
- 9:54Speaker 1: Haley voters as possible. For sure. I didn't include this clip,
- 9:58Speaker 1: but you heard about the vaccine comments too?
- 9:59Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 10:00Speaker 1: When he was in Virginia?
- 10:01Speaker 2: What did he say?
- 10:01Speaker 1: He said, I will yank federal funding from any school
- 10:06Speaker 1: that has any vaccine mandates.
- 10:10Speaker 3: Well, that's all of them.
- 10:11Speaker 1: And he said, you know, of course he said, then
- 10:13Speaker 1: he said, and mask mandates too. So he might have
- 10:15Speaker 1: been referring to COVID, but the way he said it,
- 10:18Speaker 1: And so far they haven't walked it back was just
- 10:20Speaker 1: any vaccine mandates at any school cut federal funding.
- 10:23Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I want my kid to get the
- 10:25Speaker 2: polio vaccine and I want his friends to get that too.
- 10:28Speaker 1: We're seeing fucking measles outbreaks again. Thanks to the anti-vax
- 10:32Speaker 1: movement in the Republican Party that gained steam under COVID.
- 10:35Speaker 3: Trump's going to do better in Marin County.
- 10:38Speaker 2: That's true.
- 10:38Speaker 1: Those sort of, those freaks.
- 10:40Speaker 3: Dan.
- 10:41Speaker 4: Yeah, poor Dan.
- 10:45Speaker 1: So Trump wasn't the only Republican winner over the weekend.
- 10:47Speaker 1: Nikki Haley won her first primary in Washington, D.C. on Saturday,
- 10:51Speaker 1: sweeping all 19 delegates with 63 percent of the vote.
- 10:55Speaker 1: And a whopping turnout of 2,000 voters.
- 10:59Speaker 2: What?
- 10:59Speaker 1: 2,000 voters. 2,000 voters. There was something like, I know,
- 11:03Speaker 1: it's DC.
- 11:04Speaker 2: I didn't know it was that few. It's DC.
- 11:07Speaker 1: It's small. It's not a very Republican town.
- 11:08Speaker 2: No, it's not.
- 11:09Speaker 1: But I think there's like 11,000 registered Republicans in DC.
- 11:11Speaker 2: It's a high school football game. A small one.
- 11:13Speaker 1: 2,000 is not.
- 11:14Speaker 2: Not in Texas.
- 11:15Speaker 3: That's a PSA show.
- 11:18Speaker 1: Like 2017. Trump's campaign graciously congratulated her on being named
- 11:24Speaker 1: Queen of the Swamp. And their attempts to woo Haley
- 11:27Speaker 1: and her voters are clearly working like a charm. Here's
- 11:29Speaker 1: what Haley said to Kristen Welker about Trump on Meet
- 11:32Speaker 1: the Press.
- 11:33Speaker 9: You did sign a pledge, an RNC pledge to support
- 11:37Speaker 9: the eventual nominee. Do you still feel bound by that pledge?
- 11:41Speaker 7: I have always said that I have serious concerns about
- 11:44Speaker 7: Donald Trump. I have even more concerns about Joe Biden.
- 11:47Speaker 9: So is that a no? Are you bound by the
- 11:49Speaker 9: RNC pledge?
- 11:50Speaker 7: The RNC pledge, I mean, at the time of the debate,
- 11:53Speaker 7: we had to take it to where would you support
- 11:55Speaker 7: the nominee? And you had to, in order to get
- 11:57Speaker 7: on that debate stage, you said yes. The RNC is
- 12:00Speaker 7: now not the same RNC. Now it's Trump's daughter-in-law.
- 12:02Speaker 9: So you're no longer bound by that pledge?
- 12:04Speaker 7: No, I think I'll make what decision I wanna make,
- 12:07Speaker 7: but that's not something I'm thinking about.
- 12:09Speaker 9: Do you think Donald Trump would follow the Constitution if
- 12:13Speaker 9: he were elected to a second term?
- 12:17Speaker 7: I don't know. I don't know. I mean, you always
- 12:22Speaker 7: want to think someone will, but I don't know.
- 12:25Speaker 1: You do always want to think someone will follow the Constitution.
- 12:28Speaker 1: That's something that you want to think.
- 12:29Speaker 3: Yeah, you want to believe in the best in people.
- 12:31Speaker 1: Is it happening? What's happening? It seems like it'd be
- 12:36Speaker 1: tough to endorse a guy after Super Tuesday, if she
- 12:39Speaker 1: drops out after Super Tuesday, who she just said that
- 12:42Speaker 1: about a couple days earlier.
- 12:44Speaker 4: But I don't know.
- 12:45Speaker 3: I don't know either. I watched this whole thing. First
- 12:48Speaker 3: of all, it's just like Nikki Haley was like the
- 12:50Speaker 3: best alternative and she's still terrible. But the thing that's
- 12:54Speaker 3: interesting about it is the way Welker pushes back right there,
- 12:58Speaker 3: she actually is walking through the rationale she would use
- 13:01Speaker 3: for endorsing Trump, right? She says, I have concerns about Trump.
- 13:04Speaker 3: I have even greater concerns about Biden.
- 13:06Speaker 1: Yeah, which she's been saying the last couple of weeks.
- 13:07Speaker 3: Which is what you say when you're... So what is
- 13:11Speaker 3: not clear to me in watching her interview is, is
- 13:13Speaker 3: this somebody... Because she goes after Chris Christie at some
- 13:15Speaker 3: point about the difference between her and Chris Christie. And
- 13:17Speaker 3: she says Christie was running to stop Trump. I'm not
- 13:20Speaker 3: just running to stop Trump. I'm running for the future
- 13:22Speaker 3: of the public party, blah, blah, blah. And I can
- 13:24Speaker 3: tell in watching her, is this someone who is leaving
- 13:27Speaker 3: the space open to endorse Trump, even though she's being
- 13:30Speaker 3: incredibly critical? Or is this just somebody who is not
- 13:34Speaker 3: planning to endorse Trump, but is trying to bring in
- 13:37Speaker 3: as many people that she is seeing in the polls?
- 13:40Speaker 3: that are not anti-Trump but still want an alternative. She
- 13:43Speaker 3: doesn't want to be seen as a never-Trump person.
- 13:45Speaker 2: Queen of the Swamp's pretty good.
- 13:47Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 13:47Speaker 2: I like that.
- 13:48Speaker 1: I was waiting for that.
- 13:48Speaker 2: Shout out to them.
- 13:49Speaker 1: I'm a little disappointed that Trump himself didn't go out
- 13:51Speaker 1: there and say that. Yeah, he could do a fun
- 13:52Speaker 1: graphic maybe. Yeah.
- 13:54Speaker 2: I also like that she's like, look, I would have lied.
- 13:56Speaker 2: I would have said any lie to get it on
- 13:58Speaker 2: the debate stage.
- 13:59Speaker 3: By the way, last week her message was, I'm a
- 14:00Speaker 3: woman of my word. Now she's like, no, obviously I
- 14:04Speaker 3: lied because it was good for me in that moment.
- 14:07Speaker 2: So duplicitous.
- 14:08Speaker 1: They all were like, yeah, I'll take your stupid pledge.
- 14:10Speaker 1: And Chris Christie was more direct about that when they
- 14:12Speaker 1: asked him a long time ago. He was like, yeah,
- 14:13Speaker 1: I signed the pledge. Who cares? It doesn't matter.
- 14:17Speaker 2: If you guys said, all right, we're all betting today.
- 14:19Speaker 2: Will she endorse or not? My money's on endorsing. I mean,
- 14:22Speaker 2: in 2016- She said Trump's everything a governor doesn't want
- 14:25Speaker 2: in a president. She said, I will not stop until
- 14:27Speaker 2: we fight a man that chooses not to disavow the KKK.
- 14:30Speaker 2: That is not a part of our party. That's not
- 14:32Speaker 2: who we are. Nobody said meaner stuff about Trump than
- 14:35Speaker 2: Lindsey Graham. He signed up. So I don't know. I
- 14:37Speaker 2: have no faith in these people not eventually kissing the ring, unfortunately.
- 14:41Speaker 1: She's definitely pulling her punches, right? She's not going all
- 14:44Speaker 1: the way in. And I do think one reason is
- 14:48Speaker 1: that she'll endorse him. I can't. Imagine the other reason
- 14:52Speaker 1: is that she's trying to win over voters now. She's
- 14:56Speaker 1: got to know she cannot win.
- 14:57Speaker 3: No, but it's not about winning. I don't know what
- 14:59Speaker 3: it's about. But if you watch that interview, there is
- 15:02Speaker 3: a carefulness and a precision that she is still using
- 15:05Speaker 3: that is somehow around trying to bring in as many
- 15:10Speaker 3: people as possible, even though she can't win.
- 15:11Speaker 1: No, I was going to say, I think it's possible
- 15:14Speaker 1: that she's looking to 2028. And if Trump loses and
- 15:18Speaker 1: she gets to say, oh, I told you all this
- 15:19Speaker 1: was going to happen. She doesn't want to go quite
- 15:21Speaker 1: as far as Chris Christie because she knows Chris Christie
- 15:23Speaker 1: has no place in the Republican Party ever again. And
- 15:25Speaker 1: she might think that if she still is like Trump
- 15:29Speaker 1: was bad, but he's not too bad. No, I think
- 15:32Speaker 1: that's wrong. I don't think that's going to help her.
- 15:35Speaker 2: When you talk to Christie, his view on why she's
- 15:37Speaker 2: saying she's running in 2028, right? Like he was like
- 15:39Speaker 2: definitive about it. That might be the case. But what
- 15:42Speaker 2: she's really doing is making the base of the party
- 15:44Speaker 2: hate her guts. Well, that's not the best strategy.
- 15:46Speaker 3: The nuances are so strange because she's also saying like
- 15:49Speaker 3: he's unfit and either one of them should be. She's
- 15:51Speaker 3: going in certain places. She goes much like there's places
- 15:54Speaker 3: where she's careful that don't don't seem to reflect the
- 15:56Speaker 3: way she's not as cautious elsewhere. I will say, like,
- 16:00Speaker 3: put it in the time capsule. The very end of
- 16:02Speaker 3: that interview where where Welker asks, like, do you think
- 16:06Speaker 3: Trump would uphold the Constitution? the way she pauses before answering,
- 16:11Speaker 3: it's a different version of her. And there was a
- 16:15Speaker 3: seriousness to the way she answered that question that was
- 16:17Speaker 3: different than any other part of that.
- 16:19Speaker 1: I was going to say, there is another option. Which
- 16:21Speaker 1: is that everything she said she genuinely believes right now.
- 16:25Speaker 3: Maybe so.
- 16:25Speaker 1: Which is like she doesn't really know if he's going
- 16:27Speaker 1: to follow the Constitution. I mean, she could be a
- 16:29Speaker 1: conflicted person because she did work in his administration, right?
- 16:32Speaker 1: She likes Trump. She likes his policy. She probably likes
- 16:35Speaker 1: a lot of things about him. She's not as anti-Trump
- 16:37Speaker 1: as Chris Christie. Could be true, you know? And she
- 16:41Speaker 1: might be wrestling with the decision still whether she's going
- 16:43Speaker 1: to endorse him or not. She might not have made
- 16:44Speaker 1: up her mind yet.
- 16:46Speaker 3: Another undecided voter.
- 17:01Speaker 1: We got four high-quality national polls over the weekend. They
- 17:04Speaker 1: all sucked. New York Times' Sienna has the two-way race
- 17:06Speaker 1: at 48-43 Trump. CBS News has it at 52-48 Trump.
- 17:08Speaker 1: Fox News is 49-47 Trump. And the Wall Street Journal
- 17:10Speaker 1: is 47-45 Trump. The overall national polling average has Trump
- 17:19Speaker 1: up by around two points in line with most of
- 17:21Speaker 1: those polls and his margins a little more in most
- 17:25Speaker 1: swing states. Joe Biden and his campaign say they aren't worried.
- 17:28Speaker 1: The president and his team talked to the New Yorkers,
- 17:30Speaker 1: Evan Osnos, for a 14,000 word piece. Could that have
- 17:34Speaker 1: been like 5,000 words?
- 17:35Speaker 3: Yeah, give me a give me a give me a
- 17:37Speaker 3: give me a dock. I'll control control shift E and
- 17:40Speaker 3: fucking make some cuts. Let's turn some red. Let's get
- 17:43Speaker 3: some red fucking cuts on this thing. Read that thing
- 17:45Speaker 3: for like two hours this morning. I got to the end.
- 17:47Speaker 3: It's like, he is old.
- 17:49Speaker 1: These people in New York, do they know the kids
- 17:51Speaker 1: are on TikTok now? Yeah, Jesus Christ.
- 17:52Speaker 2: No one's got attention screen for.
- 17:54Speaker 1: More than 30 seconds? Anyway, it was a great piece.
- 17:56Speaker 3: Get ready with me while I read the Evan Osnos piece.
- 18:01Speaker 2: It's a good piece.
- 18:02Speaker 1: It's a good piece. So in the piece, Biden was
- 18:05Speaker 1: described as giving off a, quote, conviction that borders on serenity.
- 18:09Speaker 1: Senior aides say they doubt He's behind by as much
- 18:12Speaker 1: as the polls suggest because according to one of them, quote,
- 18:14Speaker 1: polling is broken. And senior advisor Mike Donilon predicted that
- 18:18Speaker 1: by November, quote, the focus will become overwhelming on democracy
- 18:22Speaker 1: and that, quote, the biggest images in people's minds are
- 18:25Speaker 1: going to be of January 6th. All right, so we'll
- 18:28Speaker 1: get to the piece in a bit, but as we
- 18:30Speaker 1: all know, campaigns use polling not to predict what will happen,
- 18:35Speaker 1: but to get a sense of where voters are right
- 18:37Speaker 1: now and how to win them over. With that in mind,
- 18:40Speaker 1: Was there anything in these polls that stood out to
- 18:42Speaker 1: you guys?
- 18:43Speaker 2: Yes. I mean, so I'll take the Wall Street Journal poll.
- 18:46Speaker 2: That survey made me very sympathetic to the White House's
- 18:49Speaker 2: frustration about Biden's political standing and the challenges they're having
- 18:53Speaker 2: of improving it. For example, 43% of voters think the
- 18:56Speaker 2: economy has gotten better over the last two years. That's
- 18:59Speaker 2: up 10 points from December. 43% said their personal finances
- 19:03Speaker 2: are headed in the right direction, up nine points from
- 19:05Speaker 2: last year. But Biden's overall approval on the economy is
- 19:08Speaker 2: only at 40%. which is only up 4% from December.
- 19:12Speaker 2: So that could be a lagging indicator. It might take
- 19:15Speaker 2: some time for your economic sentiment to filter into your
- 19:20Speaker 2: feelings about Biden. Maybe your feelings about Biden are being
- 19:22Speaker 2: driven by concerns about inflation that's still pretty high in
- 19:25Speaker 2: this journal poll. Maybe it's age or other issues. But
- 19:27Speaker 2: you can see their frustration where all the economic indicators
- 19:31Speaker 2: are getting better. People's feelings about the economy are getting better,
- 19:34Speaker 2: but Biden isn't getting credit for it. That drives you
- 19:36Speaker 2: crazy in the White House.
- 19:38Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 19:38Speaker 1: Yeah.
- 19:38Speaker 2: I feel like the I.
- 19:40Speaker 3: Feel like the question on what does the polling look
- 19:42Speaker 3: like on age is sort of asked and answered. And
- 19:44Speaker 3: so I was looking at the economic numbers in the
- 19:46Speaker 3: Times poll. The Times poll is, I think, a little
- 19:48Speaker 3: less sanguine. Two-thirds of the country feel the nation's head
- 19:51Speaker 3: in the wrong direction. Trump is winning two-thirds of them, right?
- 19:54Speaker 3: And then you dig into those numbers. 40% say Trump's
- 19:58Speaker 3: policies help them personally compared to only 18% for Biden.
- 20:03Speaker 3: And you run through the numbers. It's like, you know,
- 20:05Speaker 3: women who favored Biden are now split.
- 20:09Speaker 4: Right.
- 20:09Speaker 3: Like he's losing among all these groups. If you go
- 20:12Speaker 3: into the like whose policies have helped you personally, it's
- 20:15Speaker 3: not there's no contingency right now where Biden is doing better.
- 20:18Speaker 2: Right.
- 20:18Speaker 3: That Trump's policies 40 to 18 have helped. But that's
- 20:23Speaker 3: true for men. That's true for women. That's true for
- 20:26Speaker 3: white voters. It's true for black voters. It's true for
- 20:28Speaker 3: Hispanic voters. It's true by age. And I do think
- 20:31Speaker 3: that there's like this vicious circle, which is people worry
- 20:35Speaker 3: that Biden's age make him ineffective. They are unaware that.
- 20:38Speaker 3: of the actual policies that Joe Biden has put in place.
- 20:41Speaker 3: And so when they look back in the last four years,
- 20:43Speaker 3: they see rising prices as a signal of ineffectiveness. They
- 20:47Speaker 3: are unaware of his achievements. And then they put those
- 20:49Speaker 3: in the basket of age. And it does, if you
- 20:51Speaker 3: look at this poll, kind of blur your eyes, you say,
- 20:53Speaker 3: all right, there is a lot of work that needs
- 20:55Speaker 3: to be done to let people know how much Biden
- 20:58Speaker 3: was able to get done and the actual choice between
- 21:00Speaker 3: Trump and Biden on the economy going forward. And it
- 21:04Speaker 3: might be the case that you don't actually address questions
- 21:07Speaker 3: of Biden's age and ineffectiveness directly. You actually help people
- 21:11Speaker 3: understand the choice and what he's actually gotten done. And
- 21:14Speaker 3: then all of a sudden you see people, you see
- 21:16Speaker 3: a way of addressing age and ineffectiveness by actually talking
- 21:19Speaker 3: about the economy.
- 21:20Speaker 8: Yeah.
- 21:21Speaker 1: No, I think that's right because there's only so much,
- 21:22Speaker 1: there's only so much that the Biden and the White
- 21:25Speaker 1: House can do about the age question. We've talked it
- 21:27Speaker 1: to death. Like there's just, it's there, it's an issue,
- 21:30Speaker 1: but there's only so much you can do about it.
- 21:31Speaker 1: You've got to focus on what you can control. And
- 21:34Speaker 1: that's why I also think it's worthwhile sort of looking
- 21:36Speaker 1: at these polls. I don't think it's worth overanalyzing subgroup
- 21:40Speaker 1: crosstabs in a single poll. I don't think it's worth
- 21:44Speaker 1: overanalyzing a single poll. I think it's worth analyzing the
- 21:48Speaker 1: polling averages, overall trends, and then themes that keep coming up.
- 21:53Speaker 1: I think when you think about it that way, you
- 21:56Speaker 1: get the sense that voters, first of all, they sort
- 21:59Speaker 1: of forget the Trump presidency. And they basically have better
- 22:03Speaker 1: feelings than we'd like them to about the Trump presidency,
- 22:07Speaker 1: particularly around the economy. They tend to think that 2020
- 22:09Speaker 1: was awful. but that COVID was, you know, act of God.
- 22:13Speaker 1: It happened everywhere. And so they don't blame Trump as
- 22:16Speaker 1: much for COVID.
- 22:17Speaker 2: In the journal, his approval is at 43%, but his
- 22:19Speaker 2: approval of the job he did in the White House
- 22:21Speaker 2: is at 48%. So he's got like plus five on,
- 22:24Speaker 2: you know, people looking back at that period of time
- 22:26Speaker 2: when he was in office.
- 22:27Speaker 4: Yes.
- 22:27Speaker 1: And that, and then what Lovett mentioned about the policies,
- 22:30Speaker 1: and that's why people look back and more people say
- 22:32Speaker 1: that Trump's policies helped them personally than people are saying
- 22:35Speaker 1: that Biden's policies helped them personally as well. So, and
- 22:39Speaker 1: the other big difference is Trump's popularity hasn't really changed
- 22:42Speaker 1: in four years. It is the same. He is very unpopular.
- 22:45Speaker 2: Rock solid.
- 22:45Speaker 1: What's changed is Biden's popularity, which has taken quite a tumble.
- 22:48Speaker 1: So you can do two things about that. One is
- 22:50Speaker 1: you've got to make Biden more popular and you've got
- 22:53Speaker 1: to make people believe that his policies would actually improve
- 22:56Speaker 1: their lives. And also that he's been fighting for policies
- 23:00Speaker 1: that will improve their lives. So I think that it's, again,
- 23:02Speaker 1: it's not just enough to do To let people know
- 23:04Speaker 1: what the accomplishments are, you've got to say, and this
- 23:07Speaker 1: is what I intend to do if you give me
- 23:08Speaker 1: another four years. And then I think there's a bunch
- 23:11Speaker 1: of people who don't like Trump, but don't necessarily think
- 23:14Speaker 1: he is as dangerous as those of us who are
- 23:16Speaker 1: paying close attention. And so I think that you've got
- 23:18Speaker 1: a bunch of people who are like, I don't like Biden,
- 23:20Speaker 1: I don't like Trump, but I don't know, the Trump
- 23:22Speaker 1: economy seemed a little bit better, so I might be
- 23:24Speaker 1: leaning towards Trump. And I think we've, so you've got
- 23:26Speaker 1: to raise the salience of how dangerous it is for
- 23:29Speaker 1: Donald Trump. To win again. And by, and that's why
- 23:32Speaker 1: you have to talk about what he's going to do
- 23:34Speaker 1: and like the policies he's going to pass that are
- 23:35Speaker 1: going to affect people's lives.
- 23:36Speaker 2: And some of the ones that were very unpopular in
- 23:38Speaker 2: the journal that are worth mentioning, 51% oppose repealing the ACA, Obamacare.
- 23:43Speaker 2: So not going to like that. A majority opposed pardoning
- 23:46Speaker 2: the January 6th insurrectionists. And this is my favorite. 82%
- 23:51Speaker 2: opposed encouraging Russia to invade NATO allies that don't spend
- 23:54Speaker 2: 2% on defense. So you can see why the White
- 23:56Speaker 2: House has been hitting.
- 23:57Speaker 4: This one hard.
- 23:57Speaker 1: I laughed at that because I took that note, too,
- 23:59Speaker 1: and I was like, oh, yeah, it's good to know
- 24:00Speaker 1: that that many people don't want Russia to invade Europe.
- 24:03Speaker 2: Well, actually, they were split on whether the U.S. should
- 24:05Speaker 2: uphold Article 5 commitments under NATO if these countries don't
- 24:09Speaker 2: meet their spending targets.
- 24:10Speaker 1: No one likes sending U.S. troops places, which Trump knows
- 24:14Speaker 1: very well.
- 24:15Speaker 3: Yeah, the other... Yeah, just like the way in which
- 24:19Speaker 3: Trump has become a kind of gauzy memory. Roughly like
- 24:23Speaker 3: a fifth of Trump's vote in these polls are coming
- 24:26Speaker 3: from people who believe he committed serious federal crimes. And
- 24:29Speaker 3: that's like been repeated across all these polls. And there
- 24:32Speaker 3: is just this fundamental problem right now, which is we
- 24:34Speaker 3: have the real and extant Joe Biden going up against
- 24:37Speaker 3: the kind of soft memory and potential future that Donald
- 24:40Speaker 3: Trump represents. And, you know, the point that the Biden
- 24:43Speaker 3: people make in that in that New Yorker piece is
- 24:46Speaker 3: Once people are reminded, once Trump is back in their face,
- 24:50Speaker 3: voters will come home. Voters want normal, not crazy. They
- 24:55Speaker 3: don't want Trump. But, you know, we see these polls
- 24:58Speaker 3: and these polls are not good. And we have data
- 25:02Speaker 3: on one hand and we have a theory on the other.
- 25:03Speaker 3: And at some point we need to see the data
- 25:05Speaker 3: start reflecting the theory.
- 25:07Speaker 1: There's a few other numbers from the CBS poll that
- 25:09Speaker 1: I think would sort of give us guidance on message
- 25:11Speaker 1: going forward.
- 25:12Speaker 2: Vision.
- 25:14Speaker 1: Who has a vision for the country. For Biden, it's 50-50.
- 25:16Speaker 1: And for Trump, it's 63-37. So it's a dark vision,
- 25:20Speaker 1: but you can see why people believe Trump has a
- 25:23Speaker 1: vision for the country. And I do think that starting
- 25:26Speaker 1: on Thursday with the State of the Union, Biden will
- 25:27Speaker 1: be able to start outlining his vision. And that's what
- 25:31Speaker 1: paid media is for. That's what a campaign is for. Abortion,
- 25:34Speaker 1: and you see this in a bunch of polls, only
- 25:36Speaker 1: 33% blame Trump for Roe v. Wade being overturned. That's
- 25:41Speaker 1: a real problem. 48% say he doesn't deserve blame or
- 25:44Speaker 1: credit for it. Now, that's another, like, that's exactly what
- 25:47Speaker 1: paid media is for. That's what a campaign is for.
- 25:48Speaker 2: That's what I thought, too.
- 25:49Speaker 3: Like, the same, you know, you see, like, the split that, like,
- 25:54Speaker 3: Joe Biden is no longer winning among women in this poll.
- 25:56Speaker 3: It's like, all right, that, let's call that, that better
- 25:58Speaker 3: be fucking soft. And let's assume that those are people
- 26:00Speaker 3: that can be brought back once they understand the stakes.
- 26:03Speaker 1: And I continue to think that that is... It's not
- 26:06Speaker 1: just relitigating or reminding people, oh, well, he put the
- 26:10Speaker 1: justices on the court and then they overturned. It's national
- 26:13Speaker 1: abortion ban is coming.
- 26:14Speaker 4: Yep.
- 26:15Speaker 1: Reduced access to contraception is coming. Reduced access to IVF
- 26:18Speaker 1: is coming if Trump wins. What was your take on
- 26:21Speaker 1: how Biden and Donilon and the rest of the team
- 26:22Speaker 1: are thinking about the race?
- 26:24Speaker 2: I mean, it's an interesting story, the New Yorker piece. Look,
- 26:28Speaker 2: the challenge with a long magazine profile like this is
- 26:31Speaker 2: like we don't have a transcript of the conversation. We
- 26:33Speaker 2: just have what the reporter ended up running with. And
- 26:36Speaker 2: there was a lot of confidence from Biden, from his team,
- 26:39Speaker 2: that he will win. He's the only guy who's beaten Trump.
- 26:42Speaker 2: He can do it again. There wasn't a lot of
- 26:44Speaker 2: that vision for what a second term will look like,
- 26:47Speaker 2: which is what you're trying to sell to the American people. Now,
- 26:49Speaker 2: I don't know if that's because they didn't talk about it.
- 26:51Speaker 2: I don't know if it just wasn't the appropriate time
- 26:53Speaker 2: to lay that all out. I'm sure we'll hear about
- 26:55Speaker 2: more in the State of the Union. But I do
- 26:58Speaker 2: think that piece is missing. What are you running on?
- 27:00Speaker 2: What are you fighting for? What's coming next? And again,
- 27:02Speaker 2: it's early. I'm not criticizing the Biden White House, but
- 27:05Speaker 2: you know, just in terms of takeaways.
- 27:08Speaker 1: Biden says in the piece that democracy is the central
- 27:10Speaker 1: cause of his presidency. I read that Donilon quote about
- 27:14Speaker 1: he thinks that January 6th will be on people's minds
- 27:16Speaker 1: by the fall. I am inclined to agree with Biden
- 27:20Speaker 1: and Donilon on making democracy the central theme of the
- 27:24Speaker 1: campaign for a Biden clearly believes it and is animated
- 27:29Speaker 1: by it. It is real. It is not a poll thing.
- 27:31Speaker 1: It is just like something that he gets up every morning.
- 27:34Speaker 1: I think it's why he's running at 81 years old. Again,
- 27:37Speaker 1: because he thinks he's best positioned and he thinks that
- 27:39Speaker 1: so much is at stake. I also think it's Trump's
- 27:41Speaker 1: biggest weakness. And it's the greatest. It also happens to
- 27:45Speaker 1: be the greatest danger of his reelection, right? There's a
- 27:47Speaker 1: lot of awful things that could happen, but ending democracy
- 27:50Speaker 1: is the big one. That's the tail risk. Yeah, for sure. Now,
- 27:53Speaker 1: the caveat here is that they talked about the freedom agenda.
- 27:57Speaker 1: And if you're going to go with the freedom agenda,
- 27:59Speaker 1: as Donald suggests, it's easy to fit abortion into that frame.
- 28:02Speaker 1: And they've already done that. They did that in the midterms.
- 28:04Speaker 1: But I think you really have to make room for
- 28:07Speaker 1: an economic message, too, if you are going to go
- 28:09Speaker 1: all in on democracy, which it sounds like they're going to.
- 28:12Speaker 1: And so it's not just, you know, freedom to vote
- 28:14Speaker 1: and have those votes counted, freedom to see a doctor,
- 28:16Speaker 1: freedom to know when to start a family. But it's like.
- 28:18Speaker 1: you know, freedom to be able to make a living,
- 28:20Speaker 1: freedom to send your kids to college, right? Like you've
- 28:22Speaker 1: got to, you've got to have some kind of economic
- 28:23Speaker 1: message in there and show that Biden's fighting for working
- 28:27Speaker 1: people because it's, it's, it's going to take some work
- 28:30Speaker 1: to make the democracy message tangible for people. I don't
- 28:34Speaker 1: think that's a reason to run away from it, but
- 28:36Speaker 1: it does take some work to actually make it feel
- 28:38Speaker 1: real to people.
- 28:40Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 28:40Speaker 3: I mean, that was sort of like, you know, it
- 28:43Speaker 3: was sort of reading the piece after reading about all
- 28:46Speaker 3: these polls and you just, you know, you step back
- 28:50Speaker 3: from all of this polling and you just really get
- 28:51Speaker 3: a sense that Biden as a messenger, that the age
- 28:55Speaker 3: question has so kind of clouded people's ability to see
- 28:59Speaker 3: and hear everything else that he's saying. And that in
- 29:02Speaker 3: these polling, you see that like, oh, people have no
- 29:04Speaker 3: idea what he's done. They have absolutely no idea of this,
- 29:08Speaker 3: like of this record of a president that did more
- 29:11Speaker 3: and got more done in four years than anybody predicted.
- 29:16Speaker 3: played his hand better than anyone could have predicted that
- 29:18Speaker 3: you really can't point certainly not domestically you can't point
- 29:21Speaker 3: to a single place where you would say oh the
- 29:23Speaker 3: reason that he didn't get this done is because he's
- 29:25Speaker 3: older or the reason he didn't get this done is
- 29:26Speaker 3: because he's lost his step right you cannot even find
- 29:29Speaker 3: those moments domestic policy wise like I really do believe
- 29:32Speaker 3: like this isn't he has an incredible record of achievement
- 29:34Speaker 3: that people simply have no idea about and so I
- 29:38Speaker 3: read the piece and I feel like, okay, I'm with you.
- 29:41Speaker 3: All right, let's make the argument about freedom. Let's tell
- 29:43Speaker 3: that story. But to me, it's less about this sort
- 29:45Speaker 3: of high level question about the rhetoric about democracy. It's like,
- 29:49Speaker 3: how are we going to get this in front of people?
- 29:50Speaker 3: We've got a 14,000 word piece By Evan Osnos, he
- 29:53Speaker 3: skipped the Super Bowl. And I'm just sort of like,
- 29:56Speaker 3: when is it? Where is it?
- 29:58Speaker 2: I think I agree with you on the record of achievement.
- 29:59Speaker 2: I just think like we're sort of judging that from
- 30:02Speaker 2: like an analysis of what's possible or what expectations were
- 30:07Speaker 2: for what you could get done in Washington in 2022
- 30:10Speaker 2: or three or four.
- 30:11Speaker 1: Right.
- 30:11Speaker 2: Which is like a divided Senate and actually getting something
- 30:14Speaker 2: done in a bipartisan basis. I think the challenge on
- 30:16Speaker 2: running on the record is going to be really getting
- 30:18Speaker 2: people to feel like, okay, the infrastructure bill or the
- 30:20Speaker 2: CHIPS Act or the IRA really helped me in.
- 30:22Speaker 3: Some material way. Or capping infrastructure or canceling as much
- 30:25Speaker 3: student debt as possible.
- 30:26Speaker 2: Yeah, there's discrete pieces like capping the price of insulin.
- 30:29Speaker 2: Those are the kinds of things you can really lift
- 30:30Speaker 2: up and focus on. But that's where I do think
- 30:32Speaker 2: you're missing that prospective economic piece, like give me another chance,
- 30:36Speaker 2: give me another term. This is what I'll do. This
- 30:37Speaker 2: is what I'm fighting for.
- 30:38Speaker 1: And you do need an overall argument that you can
- 30:42Speaker 1: say in a couple sentences because I do think- when
- 30:45Speaker 1: Democrats have gotten into trouble losing campaigns, it tends to be,
- 30:48Speaker 1: here's the top 10 issues that poll really well. And
- 30:50Speaker 1: so we're going to talk about these and that's it.
- 30:52Speaker 1: Like that doesn't tend to usually work. So I do
- 30:55Speaker 1: think it's important to have a theme. I also think
- 30:57Speaker 1: that the media environment, the information environment is just so
- 31:01Speaker 1: different than it even was in 2020. And part of
- 31:05Speaker 1: what that means is all of us have to be
- 31:08Speaker 1: messengers too, because it's like, how are you going to
- 31:09Speaker 1: get this in front of people? The Biden campaign will
- 31:12Speaker 1: spend a lot of money and they will run a
- 31:14Speaker 1: huge campaign on this, but all of us have agency too.
- 31:18Speaker 1: And I think that's precisely why we should be looking
- 31:22Speaker 1: at the polls and knowing where the electorate is, because
- 31:24Speaker 1: I think that helps us figure out what's the best,
- 31:26Speaker 1: most effective message to persuade voters. And so there is
- 31:29Speaker 1: this thing every time these polls come out where people
- 31:30Speaker 1: are like, well, it's just, it's doom and it's prediction,
- 31:33Speaker 1: but forget about the top line stuff. That tells you
- 31:36Speaker 1: where the race is right now. And it's probably not
- 31:39Speaker 1: exactly accurate, but it's in the ballpark usually. But the
- 31:42Speaker 1: important thing is like under the hood and like finding
- 31:44Speaker 1: out where voters are in these issues, because then you
- 31:46Speaker 1: find out what the best arguments are, what the most
- 31:48Speaker 1: effective arguments are when you're talking to your friends, neighbors, colleagues,
- 31:52Speaker 1: whoever about the election.
- 31:53Speaker 3: Yeah. And by the way, like when I say like, like,
- 31:55Speaker 3: where is it? How do we get in front of people?
- 31:57Speaker 3: Like I'm not it's like I think sometimes it's like
- 32:00Speaker 3: you we now lay at the feet of presidential campaigns,
- 32:04Speaker 3: like the challenges and like and sins of modernity. It's
- 32:07Speaker 3: like part of this. Yes, this is on the Biden
- 32:09Speaker 3: campaign to do the best they can to get this
- 32:11Speaker 3: message to people. But it also just a grim reality
- 32:14Speaker 3: that it is very hard to inform people now. And like, yes,
- 32:19Speaker 3: the fact that Donald Trump is in striking distance of
- 32:21Speaker 3: the Oval Office, if not more likely to win than
- 32:24Speaker 3: not right now today, is that because Biden is older?
- 32:27Speaker 2: Yes.
- 32:27Speaker 3: Is that because, you know, there are criticisms of the campaign?
- 32:30Speaker 4: Sure.
- 32:30Speaker 3: But it is also because we have a fucking broken
- 32:33Speaker 3: media environment and we have a right wing propaganda machine
- 32:38Speaker 3: that makes it very, very difficult to to break through
- 32:42Speaker 3: all of this noise. And there are places where we
- 32:45Speaker 3: should be putting pressure on Joe Biden, but then there
- 32:46Speaker 3: are also places where we should remember that it's kind
- 32:48Speaker 3: of incumbent on all of us to do what John's saying.
- 32:51Speaker 1: And if you want to just dig deeper into the
- 32:53Speaker 1: cross paths.
- 32:54Speaker 8: I do.
- 32:54Speaker 1: Which is exactly what I told people not to do.
- 32:56Speaker 1: But if you want to do it.
- 32:57Speaker 2: With a smart person?
- 32:57Speaker 1: Like me. If you want to be like a real junkie.
- 33:00Speaker 2: Get in there.
- 33:00Speaker 1: The best junkie there is. Dan Pfeiffer.
- 33:02Speaker 7: Yeah.
- 33:03Speaker 1: Is going to be breaking all these poles down on
- 33:04Speaker 1: Polar Coaster.
- 33:05Speaker 7: Yes.
- 33:06Speaker 3: He's got a trench coat. He's outside of school. And
- 33:07Speaker 3: you're going to love what he's got to offer.
- 33:10Speaker 4: Like drugs.
- 33:10Speaker 1: Jesus Christ.
- 33:11Speaker 3: You said dealer.
- 33:12Speaker 1: Okay. Okay.
- 33:13Speaker 4: Didn't he? Did I think it?
- 33:14Speaker 1: Dan in a trench coat. Anyway. Leave it in. It's
- 33:16Speaker 1: called Polar Coaster. You're going to want to sign. You
- 33:18Speaker 1: have to sign up. It's subscription only. Be a friend
- 33:20Speaker 1: of the pod, crooked.com slash friends. You get to listen
- 33:22Speaker 1: to Dan. You get to listen to Terminally Online. You
- 33:25Speaker 1: get all kinds of other fun content. It's great.
- 33:28Speaker 2: All right.
- 33:28Speaker 1: Finally, biggest Super Tuesday state is California, where we aren't
- 33:31Speaker 1: just voting for a presidential nominee, but a nominee to
- 33:33Speaker 1: succeed Dianne Feinstein in the Senate. We have a system
- 33:37Speaker 1: here where candidates from all parties run in the same primary,
- 33:40Speaker 1: and the top two finishers go on to compete against
- 33:41Speaker 1: each other in November. Haven't filled out my ballot yet.
- 33:44Speaker 3: I haven't filled out my ballot either.
- 33:45Speaker 1: Well, by the time you hear this, I should have.
- 33:47Speaker 1: I'm going to do it after we record. I'm going
- 33:49Speaker 1: to do it after we record, too. Can I copy
- 33:51Speaker 1: off yours?
- 33:52Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.
- 33:53Speaker 3: But I've got to copy off somebody else's.
- 33:56Speaker 4: All right.
- 33:56Speaker 1: Polling average has Adam Schiff at 25%, Republican Steve Garvey
- 34:01Speaker 1: at 20%, Katie Porter at 18%, and Barbara Lee at 9%.
- 34:06Speaker 1: Garvey's late rise in the polls coincides with Adam Schiff
- 34:09Speaker 1: running ads. that attacked the Republican, but have also had
- 34:12Speaker 1: the effect of boosting his name ID, which seems to
- 34:14Speaker 1: be the point.
- 34:15Speaker 5: No.
- 34:16Speaker 1: Here's Katie Porter on that strategy.
- 34:18Speaker 10: See from Representative Schiff is that his positive messaging isn't
- 34:23Speaker 10: moving the needle. And make no mistake, having Steve Darby
- 34:26Speaker 10: on the ballot is a boon to Republicans, if not
- 34:31Speaker 10: in the Senate race, certainly down ballot. They want to
- 34:35Speaker 10: be able to trot out Steve Darby. He can sign
- 34:38Speaker 10: a few baseballs. Um, and say he doesn't know what
- 34:41Speaker 10: he thinks about any policy position or what he'll do
- 34:43Speaker 10: about any problem. Um, and that's a, that's a boost
- 34:46Speaker 10: for the Republican party. That's not what Adam Schiff or
- 34:49Speaker 10: any Democrat who wants to represent the state of California
- 34:52Speaker 10: with our values should be doing at this point.
- 34:55Speaker 1: Uh, what do you guys make of Katie Porter's argument there?
- 34:57Speaker 3: I feel like she's basically, you know, she's, she's delicately
- 35:00Speaker 3: walking up to, to saying, Hey, if we have two
- 35:03Speaker 3: Democrats running for the Senate in November, That is going
- 35:05Speaker 3: to drive, hopefully drive turnout and help us win some
- 35:09Speaker 3: of these close house races in California. If we have
- 35:11Speaker 3: a Schiff versus goofy Republican race, that might turn out
- 35:15Speaker 3: some Republicans, and it's a seat we're going to win
- 35:18Speaker 3: either way. And while it might mean we don't have
- 35:20Speaker 3: to spend as much money on a Senate race in California,
- 35:22Speaker 3: it does mean that we're going to have to work
- 35:24Speaker 3: that much harder to turn out the vote. So for
- 35:26Speaker 3: Democrats in California, would you rather a choice in November
- 35:29Speaker 3: between two Democrats you really, really like or one Democrat
- 35:32Speaker 3: you like and one Republican baseball goof?
- 35:34Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 35:35Speaker 2: Republican baseball goof.
- 35:37Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 35:38Speaker 2: No, I asked, um, I asked Rokhan about this and
- 35:40Speaker 2: he was kind of like, yeah, I don't like the
- 35:41Speaker 2: strategy either, but like it's politics stuff happens all the time. And,
- 35:44Speaker 2: you know, he's endorsed Barbara Lee. So he's, you know,
- 35:47Speaker 2: self-interested party here. I don't, I can't tell how impactful
- 35:51Speaker 2: these ads are or aren't like Steve Garvey was, I
- 35:55Speaker 2: think a 10 time all-star. He played for the Dodgers
- 35:59Speaker 2: and the Padres, two California teams. So like that was smart. Politically. Yeah.
- 36:04Speaker 1: Well, he set himself up well for later for the center.
- 36:06Speaker 1: They've been trying to get him to run for a
- 36:07Speaker 1: long time.
- 36:08Speaker 2: Yes.
- 36:08Speaker 1: He's like a pretty.
- 36:09Speaker 2: Famous guy is all I'm saying. He's a very famous
- 36:11Speaker 2: baseball player. He won a World Series.
- 36:14Speaker 3: So like maybe these ads helped and, you know, drove
- 36:18Speaker 3: some folks his way.
- 36:19Speaker 2: Maybe they're just late deciders. I don't know. I think
- 36:21Speaker 2: shifts calculus that it'll be a hell of a lot
- 36:23Speaker 2: easier for him to beat Steve Garvey than Katie Porter and,
- 36:27Speaker 2: you know. Maybe it will be.
- 36:28Speaker 1: Probably will.
- 36:29Speaker 3: Correct. I think it would be.
- 36:30Speaker 1: It's got a point. Look, Adam Schiff has more money
- 36:33Speaker 1: than God in the Senate race and knows that if
- 36:36Speaker 1: it's Garvey and him, he wins.
- 36:38Speaker 2: And he's the next senator.
- 36:39Speaker 1: Gas prices hit God hard. So he... Obviously, he's going
- 36:43Speaker 1: to do that. But I do think that Katie makes
- 36:45Speaker 1: a good argument, especially around the... Like, look, if we
- 36:48Speaker 1: win the House races, we need to win in California.
- 36:50Speaker 1: They're very competitive. We could flip the House just based
- 36:54Speaker 1: on California.
- 36:54Speaker 2: Law, right?
- 36:55Speaker 1: And so... And you do want... High Democratic turnout. And
- 37:00Speaker 1: if not every Republican wants to come out to vote
- 37:02Speaker 1: between Katie Porter and Adam Schiff, eh. That's too bad.
- 37:05Speaker 1: That's too bad. I think everyone should vote all the time.
- 37:07Speaker 3: Everybody should, of course, vote. But I'd rather them put
- 37:10Speaker 3: on a baseball jersey and head out than just stay
- 37:12Speaker 3: home and be like, I don't care which one of
- 37:13Speaker 3: those freaks wins. That's the Republican speaking.
- 37:16Speaker 1: And for Katie Porter, she knows that if it's Porter
- 37:19Speaker 1: and Schiff, she has a very good chance of winning.
- 37:21Speaker 1: And it's probably a toss-up. Because a couple of these
- 37:24Speaker 1: polls have just polled if it was a Schiff-Porter race,
- 37:26Speaker 1: and it's almost hot.
- 37:27Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 37:28Speaker 2: It'll be interesting to see what it does or does
- 37:29Speaker 2: not do to turn out. I mean, at the end
- 37:30Speaker 2: of the day, it is an election year. MAGA people
- 37:33Speaker 2: are pretty fired up. They'll probably want to vote for
- 37:35Speaker 2: Trump no matter what, but you know, Garvey might turn
- 37:37Speaker 2: out some of those kind of softer Republicans who, you know,
- 37:40Speaker 2: Romney Republicans were no longer welcome in the party who
- 37:42Speaker 2: might stay on.
- 37:43Speaker 3: I also just think like, what, you know, Hey, Democrats,
- 37:46Speaker 3: we're all going to be voting in the fall. Would
- 37:48Speaker 3: you rather, would you rather.
- 37:49Speaker 1: For Democrats, it's, it's, it's much better to have Porter.
- 37:52Speaker 5: Right.
- 37:52Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely.
- 37:53Speaker 1: You know, it's just, uh, the only, the only people that, um,
- 37:56Speaker 1: But some people are trying to make the argument that, well,
- 37:59Speaker 1: then it's just going to be so much money spent
- 38:01Speaker 1: on this California Senate race between Katie Porter and Adam
- 38:03Speaker 1: Schiff when the money could be going to Ohio and Montana.
- 38:06Speaker 1: It's like, then just don't spend money on it. I'm
- 38:09Speaker 1: not donating.
- 38:09Speaker 2: Yeah, don't give any money.
- 38:11Speaker 1: I'm sending my money to Ohio, Montana, Nevada. It's sort
- 38:14Speaker 1: of an opposite.
- 38:14Speaker 3: It's an alien v. predator, but opposite. You know, whoever wins,
- 38:17Speaker 3: we win. So don't have to give them any money.
- 38:19Speaker 3: Send the money to the states where we need to
- 38:22Speaker 3: hold the Senate.
- 38:22Speaker 1: Or some of these House races in California if you
- 38:24Speaker 1: want to donate locally.
- 38:25Speaker 2: For sure. Who's the predator? No, there's no.
- 38:27Speaker 3: It's a good one. They're good.
- 38:29Speaker 1: It's good.
- 38:29Speaker 3: It's because the line from Alien v. Predator was whoever wins,
- 38:32Speaker 3: we lose.
- 38:33Speaker 2: So it's like Superman v.
- 38:34Speaker 4: Batman.
- 38:35Speaker 1: Sure.
- 38:36Speaker 4: Fine.
- 38:36Speaker 2: All right.
- 38:36Speaker 1: Let's get out of this before it gets fine. Two
- 38:39Speaker 1: quick things before we go to break. We're only four
- 38:40Speaker 1: months away from the release of our upcoming book, Democracy
- 38:43Speaker 1: or Else, How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps.
- 38:45Speaker 1: It's the perfect guide to get you through 2024. And
- 38:47Speaker 1: Cricket is donating the profits to support Vote Save America
- 38:50Speaker 1: and other groups organizing for 2024. And if a book
- 38:53Speaker 1: with a reasonable page count loaded with illustrations isn't your thing,
- 38:57Speaker 1: we've got you covered. That's right. We also recorded Democracy
- 38:59Speaker 1: or Else as an audiobook. Head to crooked.com slash books
- 39:02Speaker 1: and preorder a copy for you and your friends now. Also,
- 39:07Speaker 1: the Crooked store has some brand new t-shirts.
- 39:08Speaker 2: Yeah, it does.
- 39:09Speaker 1: You want to talk about it?
- 39:10Speaker 3: No, you got this.
- 39:11Speaker 1: Okay. The No Trespassing Collection features four different designs, each
- 39:15Speaker 1: inspired by a different state where abortion rights are under attack.
- 39:18Speaker 4: Read them.
- 39:19Speaker 1: There's Stay Out of My Swamp for Florida. That's right.
- 39:22Speaker 1: Stay out of my hole for Arizona.
- 39:23Speaker 3: Because of the Grand Canyon.
- 39:24Speaker 1: Yes. It's always good when you have to explain it.
- 39:26Speaker 1: Stay out of my prickly pear for Texas.
- 39:28Speaker 3: Because that's a kind of catchphrase. got down there.
- 39:30Speaker 1: And stay out of my strip for Nevada.
- 39:33Speaker 3: They're all metaphors for abortion.
- 39:35Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 39:35Speaker 7: Okay.
- 39:36Speaker 1: A portion of proceeds will go to Vote Save America's
- 39:38Speaker 1: Fuck Bans Fund, which currently is supporting abortion rights organizations
- 39:41Speaker 1: across key states. Head to cricket.com slash store to shop.
- 39:44Speaker 1: When we come back, Ro Khanna talks to Tommy about
- 39:47Speaker 1: all kinds of fun stuff.
- 40:01Speaker 2: Congressman Roe Connor represents California's 17th congressional district. And far
- 40:06Speaker 2: more importantly, he was very kind to my daughter and
- 40:08Speaker 2: my mom when I ran into him recently walking my
- 40:10Speaker 2: dog in my neighborhood, like two blocks from my house. Congressman,
- 40:13Speaker 2: great to see you again.
- 40:14Speaker 4: Great to see you.
- 40:15Speaker 5: I feel like after eight years, I finally made it.
- 40:17Speaker 5: Eight years in Congress, I'm on pod seven mark. And
- 40:19Speaker 5: now I knew the key is to meet your mom
- 40:21Speaker 5: and your daughter to get an invite.
- 40:23Speaker 2: My mom was like, I love that guy. I get
- 40:24Speaker 2: that guy on the show. Like, all right, man, you know,
- 40:26Speaker 2: you say jump, I say how high. Well, we're very
- 40:29Speaker 2: excited to have you on. Let's start with Gaza, because
- 40:33Speaker 2: I know you were recently in Michigan. You were meeting
- 40:36Speaker 2: with members of the Arab American and Muslim American community
- 40:40Speaker 2: who are frustrated about President Biden's Gaza policy. We've talked
- 40:43Speaker 2: a lot on this show about the uncommitted movement and
- 40:47Speaker 2: the potential political problems, but I thought it would be
- 40:50Speaker 2: useful if you and I could talk about what the
- 40:53Speaker 2: United States should be doing differently to actually solve the
- 40:55Speaker 2: underlying problem. So, Let's start with this sort of acute
- 40:59Speaker 2: need to get to a ceasefire, to get more aid
- 41:02Speaker 2: into Gaza, to get the hostages back. What do you
- 41:05Speaker 2: think the United States should be doing different policy-wise?
- 41:09Speaker 5: Well, first of all, Tommy, I appreciate us starting there
- 41:11Speaker 5: because if you talk to people in Dearborn, they will
- 41:15Speaker 5: tell you this is a humanitarian issue. They'll talk about
- 41:19Speaker 5: family members who've been killed, friends of theirs who've had
- 41:23Speaker 5: generations killed. They're really not thinking about this politically. The
- 41:27Speaker 5: first thing we need to do is call very clearly
- 41:31Speaker 5: for a permanent ceasefire and a release of all hostages.
- 41:35Speaker 5: And that's very different than just calling for a six-week ceasefire.
- 41:40Speaker 5: As you know, Hamas has said they want a four
- 41:44Speaker 5: and a half month ceasefire at the very least. We've
- 41:47Speaker 5: managed to get Israel to six weeks. We need to
- 41:50Speaker 5: say that the ceasefire needs to be permanent so we
- 41:52Speaker 5: can have some room for negotiation and getting deal because
- 41:56Speaker 5: the time length of the ceasefire is one of the
- 41:59Speaker 5: key issues that's preventing the deal. The second thing we
- 42:04Speaker 5: should do is make it clear to Netanyahu that we're
- 42:07Speaker 5: no longer going to be protecting him at the United Nations.
- 42:11Speaker 5: If we're not going to be voting for the ceasefires
- 42:15Speaker 5: at the United Nations, then at the very least we
- 42:17Speaker 5: should abstain from doing that, and that would add pressure.
- 42:20Speaker 5: The third thing we should do to is make it
- 42:22Speaker 5: clear to Netanyahu that no more transfer of weapons bypassing
- 42:26Speaker 5: Congress until there is a permanent ceasefire, conditional, of course,
- 42:31Speaker 5: I mean, the release of all the hostages, which I
- 42:34Speaker 5: do believe.
- 42:35Speaker 4: That we can get.
- 42:36Speaker 5: And we should make it clear to Hamas that they
- 42:38Speaker 5: need to live up to the release of all hostages
- 42:41Speaker 5: and what they're proposing. Those would be a few places
- 42:44Speaker 5: that I think could get us some movement.
- 42:48Speaker 2: It seems like the Biden theory of the case has
- 42:50Speaker 2: been to try to get this six-week ceasefire because they
- 42:53Speaker 2: think once that happens, it will be very difficult for
- 42:55Speaker 2: the Israeli military to restart up the military conflict, at
- 43:00Speaker 2: least at the same level after that six weeks period.
- 43:03Speaker 2: Are you saying that you don't necessarily agree with that
- 43:05Speaker 2: theory of the case and that we should be reaching
- 43:07Speaker 2: for a longer, more durable, more permanent ceasefire right now?
- 43:11Speaker 5: I think there's something to be said for the case
- 43:13Speaker 5: in terms of, obviously, if we can get at least
- 43:15Speaker 5: six weeks before Ramadan, that's a step. And I agree
- 43:19Speaker 5: with your view, having talked to folks in the administration,
- 43:22Speaker 5: that they're hoping once we get a ceasefire, it can
- 43:25Speaker 5: continue to be extended. I don't have enough faith in
- 43:28Speaker 5: Netanyahu that that's what's going to happen. I think after
- 43:32Speaker 5: six weeks, he's going to start again to have operations,
- 43:35Speaker 5: partly because his own political survival depends on continuing the war. Partly,
- 43:40Speaker 5: I don't trust his motives. I don't think he wants
- 43:42Speaker 5: the president reelected. I think he prefers Donald Trump, and
- 43:46Speaker 5: it's in his interest to continue the conflict. But the
- 43:49Speaker 5: second point is the six weeks is hard to get
- 43:52Speaker 5: precisely because Hamas wants a longer duration. So at the
- 43:56Speaker 5: very least, we need to be pushing for a longer
- 43:59Speaker 5: duration to get a deal. And we would have probably
- 44:02Speaker 5: gotten a deal weeks ago if we weren't stuck on
- 44:05Speaker 5: just the six week framework.
- 44:08Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 44:08Speaker 2: So bigger picture. I mean, it has felt for a
- 44:11Speaker 2: while like things were going in the wrong direction in
- 44:14Speaker 2: terms of resolving the underlying conflict. But U.S. policy doesn't
- 44:18Speaker 2: seem to adjust, right? I mean, the negotiations over two-state
- 44:21Speaker 2: solution have been dead for years. The Palestinian Authority is
- 44:25Speaker 2: corrupt and, frankly, distrusted by most Palestinians. The Israeli government,
- 44:30Speaker 2: on the other hand, keeps getting more right-wing. It keeps
- 44:32Speaker 2: getting more extremist and more nationalist. And the U.S. position
- 44:36Speaker 2: is basically, let's urge both sides to negotiate. But there's
- 44:40Speaker 2: never consequences if one side or the other does something
- 44:43Speaker 2: to set back those talks, for example, settlement construction in
- 44:47Speaker 2: the West Bank by the Israeli government. The Trump administration
- 44:51Speaker 2: and now the Biden team, they seem to think that
- 44:54Speaker 2: normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is the skeleton
- 44:59Speaker 2: key to sort of unlocking the broader Palestinian issue and
- 45:02Speaker 2: getting to a Palestinian state. Do you agree with that approach?
- 45:06Speaker 2: And if not, what generally do you think we could
- 45:09Speaker 2: do to shake things up and kind of break out
- 45:11Speaker 2: of these U.S. government positions and talking points from, you know, frankly,
- 45:15Speaker 2: the 80s? Well, at least when I was in the
- 45:17Speaker 2: Obama administration.
- 45:18Speaker 5: Well, the president, I thought President Obama tried with the
- 45:21Speaker 5: new beginning speech in Cairo. So I try to give
- 45:24Speaker 5: him some credit for that. But look, I don't I'm
- 45:28Speaker 5: a supporter of the Abraham Accords. But I don't think
- 45:31Speaker 5: that that is going to get you a Palestinian state
- 45:35Speaker 5: or a two-state solution, even if you have the normalization
- 45:39Speaker 5: between the Saudis and Israel. And that doesn't just come
- 45:43Speaker 5: from my own view. If you talk to Ambassador Rima,
- 45:46Speaker 5: she would tell you the same thing, that she is
- 45:50Speaker 5: committed and Saudi Arabia is committed, as is UAE, to
- 45:53Speaker 5: helping see a Palestinian state. They don't like Hamas. I mean,
- 45:56Speaker 5: they recognize Hamas is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood. But
- 46:00Speaker 5: they need for us to do a few things for
- 46:03Speaker 5: that to be possible. What are those things? First, they
- 46:07Speaker 5: need us to at least recognize the Palestinian state. I mean,
- 46:11Speaker 5: we as the United States, we don't recognize them. Under
- 46:14Speaker 5: the Obama administration, Palestine at least had observer status at
- 46:18Speaker 5: the UN, though the US voted against it even then.
- 46:22Speaker 4: But they're there.
- 46:23Speaker 5: But we should come out and recognize clearly a Palestinian
- 46:27Speaker 5: state and recognize a Palestinian state at the UN. The
- 46:31Speaker 5: second thing is, let's take the Gulf states up on
- 46:35Speaker 5: their offer to have a summit in the Middle East,
- 46:40Speaker 5: have Saudi there, have Egypt there, have UAE there, have
- 46:43Speaker 5: Israel there, have folks from the Palestinian civil authority there.
- 46:49Speaker 5: I mean, civic leaders, municipal leaders. Ben Rhodes has written
- 46:53Speaker 5: extensively about this. I cite him only because he's met
- 46:57Speaker 5: some of these leaders. and then have the Saudis and
- 47:02Speaker 5: UAE put a tremendous amount of pressure, which they will, saying, look,
- 47:06Speaker 5: we were willing to develop Gaza. We're willing to fund it,
- 47:10Speaker 5: but we need to have a new generation of leadership.
- 47:12Speaker 5: But we can't get there. People keep saying, let's not
- 47:15Speaker 5: have Hamas. What is the strategy to get a new
- 47:18Speaker 5: generation there? We can't do it without the Gulf allies.
- 47:21Speaker 5: And Hamas ultimately... as Fareed Zakaria wrote, is an idea.
- 47:25Speaker 5: It's an idea that armed resistance is the only way
- 47:28Speaker 5: to end occupation. We need to provide an alternative. So
- 47:30Speaker 5: it's going to require real U.S.
- 47:32Speaker 4: Leadership.
- 47:33Speaker 2: Yeah. And the other challenge that's happened regionally since October
- 47:36Speaker 2: 7th is there have been this drastic uptick in attacks
- 47:39Speaker 2: by Iranian-linked proxy forces in the Gulf. And there's been
- 47:43Speaker 2: a response by the U.S. government and in some cases,
- 47:45Speaker 2: a coalition of countries against the Houthis in Yemen. You
- 47:49Speaker 2: have criticized presidents of both parties for taking military action
- 47:52Speaker 2: without congressional approval. Most recently, that was in the form
- 47:55Speaker 2: of a letter to President Biden arguing he needs congressional
- 47:58Speaker 2: approval to target the Houthis in Yemen. So, look, I
- 48:01Speaker 2: come to this conversation with some humility because the Obama
- 48:04Speaker 2: administration stretched the congressional authorization for the use of force
- 48:08Speaker 2: against al-Qaeda beyond all recognition to justify a lot of
- 48:12Speaker 2: counterterrorism activities. But can you describe to listeners how you
- 48:16Speaker 2: think the process should work? And then also just, you know,
- 48:20Speaker 2: kind of reflecting that answer, the reality that There's a
- 48:23Speaker 2: lot of people in Congress that are deeply unserious, and
- 48:26Speaker 2: that doesn't mean they don't have the same role in
- 48:28Speaker 2: the Constitution, but it creates a challenge, right? I mean,
- 48:32Speaker 2: we have Marjorie Taylor Greene with essentially a veto in
- 48:34Speaker 2: the House of Representatives.
- 48:36Speaker 5: It does create a challenge, but, you know, Matt, as
- 48:38Speaker 5: I said, enlightened statesmen aren't always going to be.
- 48:40Speaker 4: At the helm.
- 48:41Speaker 5: The process is supposed to protect against that, precisely because
- 48:46Speaker 5: we may have people who are not well-informed in Congress
- 48:49Speaker 5: or in the executive branch, and That's why you have
- 48:52Speaker 5: checks and balances.
- 48:53Speaker 4: But look, here's my view.
- 48:54Speaker 5: If one of our Navy ships is struck and we're
- 48:59Speaker 5: taking totally defensive action because we don't want another Navy
- 49:04Speaker 5: ship to be struck or even a commercial vehicle, commercial
- 49:09Speaker 5: ship to be struck, I think the United States has
- 49:12Speaker 5: the right, the president has the right to take that
- 49:15Speaker 5: defensive action. And that's what people cite the Pirates case
- 49:20Speaker 5: with Thomas Jefferson, that Thomas Jefferson took some of the
- 49:23Speaker 5: action to defend the ships back in the early 1800s.
- 49:26Speaker 5: What they often don't cite is the second half of
- 49:28Speaker 5: that story where Jefferson then comes to the United States
- 49:32Speaker 5: Congress and he says, okay, I've taken this defensive action,
- 49:36Speaker 5: but now I want to take more offensive action against
- 49:39Speaker 5: the pirates. and I need Congress's authorization. And so when
- 49:43Speaker 5: it becomes not just that we're protecting our ships, but
- 49:46Speaker 5: we want to take offensive action against the Houthis or
- 49:50Speaker 5: some other force, then they need to come to Congress.
- 49:52Speaker 5: And the reality is, in most cases, they would get
- 49:56Speaker 5: the authorization, especially if they asked for an authorization that
- 50:01Speaker 5: was limited in scope and time. But the process of
- 50:04Speaker 5: coming to Congress would actually have a debate about the issues.
- 50:08Speaker 5: And And I it's it's really unfortunate that that has
- 50:12Speaker 5: been bypassed.
- 50:13Speaker 2: I mean, I'm with you on the principle and I'm
- 50:16Speaker 2: with you in theory, though, you know, the sort of
- 50:18Speaker 2: infamous case of Obama not enforcing the red line happened
- 50:22Speaker 2: in part because he decided that he wanted to go
- 50:25Speaker 2: to Congress and get a vote on it. And it
- 50:28Speaker 2: seemed like Congress was thrilled to not actually have to
- 50:31Speaker 2: put their fingerprints on a very tough political issue and
- 50:34Speaker 2: kind of walked away from the process. Is that is
- 50:36Speaker 2: that wrong?
- 50:37Speaker 5: No, but I'm not saying I don't think that that
- 50:39Speaker 5: was a mistake that the President Obama made. I give
- 50:42Speaker 5: him a lot of credit for doing that. Look, Assad
- 50:45Speaker 5: obviously gassed his own people. He used capital weapons. He's
- 50:48Speaker 5: a brutal dictator. Does that mean that the United States
- 50:52Speaker 5: should have been engaged in another Middle East war? Probably
- 50:56Speaker 5: there was a lot of hesitation of that. And the
- 50:59Speaker 5: president obviously had those considerations.
- 51:01Speaker 4: But so did Congress.
- 51:01Speaker 5: Congress said, look, we've just been in Iraq. We don't
- 51:04Speaker 5: want to have some massive troop deployment.
- 51:07Speaker 4: Into Syria.
- 51:09Speaker 5: That didn't mean that President Obama wasn't very clear eyed
- 51:12Speaker 5: in condemning Assad and understanding the awful things.
- 51:15Speaker 4: That Assad had done.
- 51:17Speaker 5: But he was prudent in not getting us into another
- 51:20Speaker 5: Middle East war. And I think Congress helped inform that prudence.
- 51:24Speaker 5: So in my view, that was actually an example of
- 51:27Speaker 5: the president following the process.
- 51:30Speaker 6: Yeah.
- 51:30Speaker 2: And in fact, within a few weeks after that process,
- 51:33Speaker 2: there was a bunch of diplomatic efforts with the Russians
- 51:35Speaker 2: that got all the chemical weapons Syria, at least a
- 51:37Speaker 2: lot of the chemical weapons stockpiles out of Syria, but
- 51:40Speaker 2: a story for another day that gets lost in the
- 51:42Speaker 2: very simplistic version of the red line story. Stepping back
- 51:45Speaker 2: a bit, over the past few years, you've been part
- 51:47Speaker 2: of this group that worked hard to build bridges between
- 51:50Speaker 2: the Biden White House and the progressive community. Those efforts were,
- 51:54Speaker 2: I think, surprisingly effective in the first few years. They
- 51:58Speaker 2: seem to have unraveled a bit more recently, especially as
- 52:01Speaker 2: things have gotten worse in Gaza. Why did you end
- 52:04Speaker 2: up taking on that role? And what do you think
- 52:07Speaker 2: it will take to reconsolidate the Democratic Party voters who say,
- 52:12Speaker 2: you know, they're not planning to vote or they're frustrated
- 52:14Speaker 2: with politics or the Democratic Party at the moment?
- 52:18Speaker 5: Well, I give the president credit for allowing some of
- 52:23Speaker 5: us to play that role. I mean, the president, when
- 52:25Speaker 5: he won, recognized that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and
- 52:30Speaker 5: progressives had a big say in the party. And one
- 52:33Speaker 5: of the president's great talents has been to find where
- 52:37Speaker 5: the median of the Democratic Party is. Another one of
- 52:41Speaker 5: the president's great talents is to reach out with humility
- 52:45Speaker 5: to lawmakers. So he made an effort and his team
- 52:48Speaker 5: to build relationships, not just with me, but with Pramila,
- 52:52Speaker 5: with AOC, with a number of key progressives in the Congress.
- 52:58Speaker 5: And he took our idea seriously. It wasn't just lip service.
- 53:01Speaker 5: The the American Rescue Plan. And that had massive increase
- 53:07Speaker 5: in the child tax credit, in K through 12 school funding,
- 53:12Speaker 5: in checks to people. One of the side notes, things
- 53:15Speaker 5: that drives me crazy is when I talk to young
- 53:17Speaker 5: voters of color and they say, well, Trump gave us checks.
- 53:20Speaker 5: I said, you know, President Biden did too. I mean,
- 53:22Speaker 5: those checks were the American Rescue Plan. And a lot
- 53:25Speaker 5: of the idea for checks came from House Democrats. But
- 53:28Speaker 5: the President did that. He listened to us on ideas
- 53:32Speaker 5: on climate and made IRA all about climate. He listened
- 53:36Speaker 5: about issues of the chips and science and bringing manufacturing back.
- 53:41Speaker 5: So the alliance and coalition was based on his outreach
- 53:47Speaker 5: and his willingness to embrace progressive goals. In some cases,
- 53:51Speaker 5: he pushed for things that Manchin and Sinema didn't let through,
- 53:55Speaker 5: like the $ 15 wage and expanding Medicare to dental and vision. Now,
- 54:01Speaker 5: the progressives said, maybe, Mr. President, you should have fought
- 54:03Speaker 5: harder for it. And there was always some disagreement. But
- 54:08Speaker 5: by and large, we were all rowing in a similar direction.
- 54:11Speaker 5: And there was a view that the president really understood
- 54:14Speaker 5: on domestic.
- 54:15Speaker 4: Politics where we were going.
- 54:17Speaker 5: And then most of us thought he did a masterful job,
- 54:19Speaker 5: as did Tony Blinken, in standing up to Putin and
- 54:23Speaker 5: in organizing a coalition with Ukraine. And there was a
- 54:27Speaker 5: lot of support for the president on that issue. It's
- 54:31Speaker 5: really been on Gaza that you see the first major
- 54:38Speaker 5: disagreement with the progressive caucus. I mean, there were issues
- 54:43Speaker 5: with student loans, but this is probably one of the
- 54:46Speaker 5: big disagreements. And it goes to, I think, a view
- 54:49Speaker 5: of America's role in the world and justice for people
- 54:55Speaker 5: of all backgrounds, but this is one of the first
- 54:57Speaker 5: times where you've had a very difficult issue.
- 55:00Speaker 2: Yeah. So you sound hopeful, though, that we can get
- 55:03Speaker 2: that coalition back together in time for the election.
- 55:06Speaker 5: Look, I think everyone understands that we need the president
- 55:10Speaker 5: to win. What I would say is that the president's
- 55:15Speaker 5: team needs to appreciate how important the Obama's victories, even
- 55:24Speaker 5: in 2012, how important it was in 2020. And right now,
- 55:28Speaker 5: he has a lot of young folks, a lot of
- 55:31Speaker 5: voters of color, a lot of progressive voters, Arab and
- 55:34Speaker 5: Muslim American voters whose.
- 55:36Speaker 4: Trust he needs to build. But it's not just Gaza.
- 55:39Speaker 5: It's also that he needs to offer some inspiring vision
- 55:42Speaker 5: about the future, where he's going to take the country,
- 55:45Speaker 5: their role in that country.
- 55:47Speaker 4: And, you know, I think we have work to do
- 55:49Speaker 4: on that front.
- 55:50Speaker 2: Yeah, and some time. I want to ask you about
- 55:52Speaker 2: your district. You represent Silicon Valley. You know a lot
- 55:56Speaker 2: of the bold-faced names in tech. I was wondering if
- 55:58Speaker 2: you could help us understand them a little bit. Because take,
- 56:02Speaker 2: for example, someone like Marc Andreessen, who I think you know.
- 56:05Speaker 2: He is the co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz, one of the
- 56:08Speaker 2: biggest and most successful venture capital funds in the country.
- 56:11Speaker 2: He's got to be worth a couple billion dollars. Not
- 56:14Speaker 2: that long ago, Marc Andreessen was kind of like a
- 56:16Speaker 2: center-left guy. He was buddies with Al Gore. He supported
- 56:19Speaker 2: Obama in 2008. I think he decided Obama's rhetoric was
- 56:23Speaker 2: too mean to big business and then endorsed Romney in 2012.
- 56:27Speaker 2: But today he's part of this kind of crew of
- 56:31Speaker 2: reactionary tech leaders that are super online, that seemingly were
- 56:36Speaker 2: like radicalized by, I don't know, COVID restrictions or feeling
- 56:40Speaker 2: like cancel culture was targeting them. I don't know what
- 56:43Speaker 2: it is. I was wondering if you could help us
- 56:44Speaker 2: understand how there are so many of these leaders in
- 56:47Speaker 2: Silicon Valley who rich, powerful people like Marc Andreessen or
- 56:50Speaker 2: Elon Musk who feel like they're victims or act like
- 56:54Speaker 2: they're victims despite having power that most people could only
- 56:57Speaker 2: dream of?
- 57:00Speaker 4: Well, you're right.
- 57:01Speaker 5: I mean, look, as you know, I supported Bernie Sanders
- 57:03Speaker 5: and I represent Silicon Valley. So the voters are different
- 57:07Speaker 5: than some of the most high-profile tech leaders. But Marc Andreessen,
- 57:14Speaker 5: someone who has supported me, has gone on and off.
- 57:17Speaker 5: I think he supported me. Then I supported Bernie. He
- 57:19Speaker 5: stopped supporting me. Then he started supporting me. And, you know,
- 57:24Speaker 5: there are places where he may be open to a
- 57:28Speaker 5: vision of Democrats, which is he thinks we need to
- 57:30Speaker 5: build things in America again. We need to have some
- 57:34Speaker 5: kind of policy with government and the private sector on industrialization.
- 57:38Speaker 5: So what Obama did, I mean, Elon Musk may not
- 57:41Speaker 5: acknowledge it, but there would not be Tesla if there
- 57:44Speaker 5: was not President Obama. That was the Treasury loan that
- 57:47Speaker 5: took place. And Andreessen understands that you need government collaboration
- 57:52Speaker 5: with the private sector to spawn Silicon Valley. It was
- 57:56Speaker 5: going to the moon that led to the semiconductor industry
- 57:59Speaker 5: because NASA had to buy a lot of semiconductors.
- 58:02Speaker 4: That's what spawned Silicon Valley.
- 58:05Speaker 5: And that on times of let's build things, they're there.
- 58:08Speaker 5: But the problem is that they have come to this
- 58:11Speaker 5: view of libertarianism, that The obstacle isn't a lack of
- 58:17Speaker 5: government financing or government investment and workforce. The obstacle is
- 58:21Speaker 5: just bureaucracy and government regulation and, in its worst case,
- 58:28Speaker 5: DEI programs.
- 58:29Speaker 4: And that if.
- 58:30Speaker 5: Somehow the government just championed the entrepreneur, that America would
- 58:37Speaker 5: be more a manufacturing superpower, an economic superpower. And I
- 58:43Speaker 5: think that's a misread of history. I also disagree with
- 58:46Speaker 5: it from a values perspective. But that is one strand
- 58:51Speaker 5: of thinking in the valley.
- 58:55Speaker 2: I hope these guys log off and find whatever they
- 58:57Speaker 2: need to fill that void in their souls. Speaking of
- 59:01Speaker 2: Mark Andreessen and going to the moon, I want to
- 59:02Speaker 2: ask you about cryptocurrency, because at the end of 2021,
- 59:06Speaker 2: crypto was collapsing. Now it's surging again. I'm no expert.
- 59:10Speaker 2: on the industry, but it seems like a lot of
- 59:12Speaker 2: this increase is coming on the back of the SEC
- 59:14Speaker 2: approving Bitcoin ETFs. Those are basically financial instruments that make
- 59:18Speaker 2: it easier for people like you and me to buy
- 59:21Speaker 2: little bits of cryptocurrency on the stock exchange and make
- 59:25Speaker 2: it easier for retail investors to get involved. But a
- 59:29Speaker 2: couple of years ago, these crypto companies were imploding left
- 59:33Speaker 2: and right. There was FTX, Three Arrows Capital, which is
- 59:36Speaker 2: a hedge fund, Celsius. There was a stable coin called
- 59:39Speaker 2: Terra that imploded. If folks don't know all the specifics here,
- 59:42Speaker 2: just know that these companies failed and a lot of
- 59:45Speaker 2: regular people got hurt. Now, again, like I was saying,
- 59:49Speaker 2: Bitcoin's back up to $ 60, 000 a coin. The casino is
- 59:52Speaker 2: back open, right? Can you help us understand what, if any,
- 59:56Speaker 2: steps are being taken to regulate these guys? Because I
- 59:59Speaker 2: know that even the SEC was not happy about its
- 1:00:02Speaker 2: own decision to approve Bitcoin ETFs in the first place.
- 1:00:06Speaker 2: And I just worry we might repeat what happened at
- 1:00:09Speaker 2: the end of 2021 and see retail investors get hurt.
- 1:00:13Speaker 4: Well, we need more regulation.
- 1:00:14Speaker 5: I mean, the one basic regulation is we need stable
- 1:00:17Speaker 5: coins to be capitalized. And without going into all the details,
- 1:00:23Speaker 5: just think of it as we have capital requirements on
- 1:00:25Speaker 5: banks and Stablecoin allows for monetary transactions overseas, and a
- 1:00:30Speaker 5: lot of them are undercapitalized. So you could have capitalization
- 1:00:34Speaker 5: requirements for them. There should be clear distinctions between cryptocurrencies
- 1:00:41Speaker 5: that are speculative and that should be regulated by the
- 1:00:45Speaker 5: SEC with investor disclosures and understanding the risk. And then
- 1:00:49Speaker 5: in some cases, Bitcoin, which is ubiquitous, being more of
- 1:00:53Speaker 5: a commodity. Now, A lot of blockchain and crypto still
- 1:00:58Speaker 5: has a use case to be made. I mean, what
- 1:01:00Speaker 5: is it going to solve? I mean, some people say, well,
- 1:01:02Speaker 5: is it going to make monetary transactions faster and cheaper?
- 1:01:06Speaker 4: That's a debatable issue.
- 1:01:08Speaker 2: I'm waiting on that one.
- 1:01:09Speaker 5: Yeah, even if it's digital gold, maybe it's just a
- 1:01:11Speaker 5: collector's item. But here's, I think, Tommy, what we're missing.
- 1:01:16Speaker 5: A lot of folks, younger folks, have gotten crypto and blockchain.
- 1:01:21Speaker 5: Many people of color. And to me, it's almost... a
- 1:01:25Speaker 5: sad commentary that this is the closest they're going to
- 1:01:28Speaker 5: get to having a part in modern economic wealth generation.
- 1:01:33Speaker 5: I sit on a district that has $ 10 trillion of value, Apple, Google, Intel, Tesla. Yes,
- 1:01:39Speaker 5: kids in my district, are they optimistic about America? 90%
- 1:01:43Speaker 5: of hands go up in most parts of the district,
- 1:01:45Speaker 5: not all, but most parts of the district. And that's
- 1:01:47Speaker 5: the almost inverse in many other parts of this country.
- 1:01:51Speaker 5: So the only way that we have really provided some
- 1:01:55Speaker 5: people the opportunity to participate in modern wealth generation is
- 1:02:01Speaker 5: blockchain and crypto. And it's a sad commentary. I mean,
- 1:02:03Speaker 5: what are we doing to expand the opportunities of the
- 1:02:07Speaker 5: digital economy and modern economic life across this country? That
- 1:02:11Speaker 5: should be, in my view, the question that we're trying
- 1:02:14Speaker 5: to answer.
- 1:02:16Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good question. Final question for you from me.
- 1:02:19Speaker 2: So we're recording this on March 4th. The interview will
- 1:02:21Speaker 2: come out March 5th, the day of the California primary.
- 1:02:24Speaker 2: We have a big, important Senate race happening here. I
- 1:02:27Speaker 2: know you've endorsed Barbara Lee. Congressman Adam Schiff and Katie
- 1:02:30Speaker 2: Porter are the other main candidates in the race. Congressman
- 1:02:33Speaker 2: Schiff is running ads that boost a guy named Steve Garvey,
- 1:02:38Speaker 2: a Republican. The idea being, or strategy seeming to be,
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: that the campaign thinks it will be easier for Schiff
- 1:02:44Speaker 2: to beat Garvey in a runoff. than to beat Katie
- 1:02:48Speaker 2: Porter or Barbara Lee or other Democrats. Congresswoman Porter is
- 1:02:52Speaker 2: not happy about this strategy. She's concerned that even having
- 1:02:56Speaker 2: Garvey on the ballot in a runoff would help down
- 1:02:59Speaker 2: ballot Republicans turn out voters. Do you agree with that criticism?
- 1:03:03Speaker 2: Are you concerned about this elevation of Steve Garvey?
- 1:03:07Speaker 5: I don't like this strategy, but look, it's politics. It's
- 1:03:11Speaker 5: happened before in California races. It's not a surprise. I
- 1:03:16Speaker 5: don't think it's going to have a effect on down
- 1:03:19Speaker 5: ballot races. I think we still have a great chance
- 1:03:21Speaker 5: with Trump as the nominee to win.
- 1:03:24Speaker 4: Four House races.
- 1:03:25Speaker 5: But I agree with Katie Porter that it's sort of
- 1:03:29Speaker 5: a manipulation of a system. I mean, it's completely legal.
- 1:03:34Speaker 5: Adam Schiff isn't doing anything that's illegal, but I don't
- 1:03:39Speaker 5: love the tactic.
- 1:03:41Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, we'll leave it there. Congressman Conner, thank you
- 1:03:43Speaker 2: so much for joining the show. Appreciate it.
- 1:03:45Speaker 4: Thank you. Thank you, Tommy.
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: Thanks to Rokana for joining us. And we will have
- 1:03:55Speaker 1: another episode for you on Wednesday after Super Tuesday. It's
- 1:03:58Speaker 1: going to be all four of us. Dan's flying down.
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: We got Dan.
- 1:04:01Speaker 3: We got Dan.
- 1:04:02Speaker 2: Gun to your head. You got to wear one of
- 1:04:04Speaker 2: those four shirts we just talked about to a family dinner.
- 1:04:08Speaker 2: Which one are you going with?
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: Prickly pear. I think I'm going to prickly pear. Yeah, 100%.
- 1:04:12Speaker 1: I'm not wearing a shirt that says stay out of
- 1:04:14Speaker 1: my hole at a family function.
- 1:04:15Speaker 2: Why? It's about the Grand Canyon.
- 1:04:18Speaker 3: I'm wearing one. My dad wears worse.
- 1:04:21Speaker 2: Some of his hats.
- 1:04:21Speaker 3: I don't know where those hats come from.
- 1:04:23Speaker 1: Are we selling onesies for babies about this one?
- 1:04:25Speaker 3: No, we are going to sell. I checked with new
- 1:04:28Speaker 3: moms about this one. We are going to sell a
- 1:04:30Speaker 3: onesie and the onesie is going to say the onesie
- 1:04:32Speaker 3: is going to say I hope you sort out this
- 1:04:35Speaker 3: whole abortion thing by the time I need one. Which
- 1:04:38Speaker 3: is fucking good.
- 1:04:41Speaker 2: Onesies coming to a Jesse Waters piece near you.
- 1:04:44Speaker 3: Great great no such thing as that that's good get
- 1:04:47Speaker 3: it on Fox News.
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: Bye everyone if you want to get ad free episodes
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- 1:05:12Speaker 1: Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: produced by Olivia Martinez and David Toledo. Our associate producers
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