Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 205 - 1/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 205 - 1/24/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 205 of the All Systems Go Sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. Happy Friday, everyone.
• 0:36
  What's going on? Big day here on the pod as we
• 0:39
  wrap up the work week because we are now less than two days away,
• 0:43
  or I guess technically two days away from one of the best
• 0:46
  betting days of the year. That's right, conference
• 0:48
  championship Sunday. Commanders, Eagles, Buffalo
• 0:52
  Bills, Kansas City Chiefs. Are the refs going to continue
• 0:55
  to help out Kansas City? Well, I kind of hope they do
• 0:58
  because I'm going to give you my 2 plays here for this weekend.
• 1:01
  One officially unveiled the other day on the pod.
• 1:03
  Second one I just pulled the trigger on as well.
• 1:06
  So I'll give you both of my best bets for Sunday's big AFC and
• 1:09
  NFC championship games and then of course, going to get right
• 1:12
  back to college hoops. Got a three pack for you
• 1:14
  tonight. I know it's a smaller than usual
• 1:16
  slate, only 13 games overall, but a couple good line moves,
• 1:19
  good system matches. Hopefully we can get a winner or
• 1:22
  two on the college hardwood here for tonight.
• 1:25
  Now before we dive in our sweats and recap last night, just want
• 1:28
  to invite everyone and let you know if you don't know, well, if
• 1:31
  you don't know now you know. We are doing myself and James
• 1:33
  Santor a special Friday edition, not the Sunday rhythm sweats,
• 1:37
  but the Friday sweats. So once this pod drops, just go
• 1:41
  over to Twitter and we're going to do the live stream.
• 1:43
  James and myself breaking down the conference championship
• 1:46
  weekend from a rhythm and data-driven perspective.
• 1:49
  We got best bets, we got player props.
• 1:52
  Very much looking forward to this.
• 1:53
  Should be a lot of fun and maybe we'll hit on some some college
• 1:55
  hoops or maybe some other sports if we have some time.
• 1:58
  But again, 3:30 to 4:30 should be about an hour long.
• 2:01
  We're going to do it here today. Get you excited for a big
• 2:04
  betting weekend. Now looking back toward last
• 2:07
  night guys, the struggle continues. 2 and 3 -, 1.59
• 2:11
  units. We did have a couple good wins
• 2:13
  with Campbell. Campbell rolled to start the
• 2:15
  night, so it was good to get a winner.
• 2:17
  Calgary Flames also came through in the NHL, but the frustrating
• 2:20
  ones. Saint Thomas came up short on
• 2:23
  the road against Omaha. Cal Baptist had a big lead.
• 2:26
  I think they're up by like 10 at halftime.
• 2:28
  Look like we're in line for a win there.
• 2:30
  And they totally imploded down the stretch, which was rough to
• 2:33
  see. And then the frustrating one was
• 2:35
  the last game, the night the Celtics over because we got a
• 2:38
  really good number over 218 1/2. Ended up getting as high as like
• 2:42
  220 closed around two 19219 1/2. But right after we bet the game,
• 2:48
  there was news that both Porzingis Andrew Holiday would
• 2:51
  play. So you saw the line creep up to
• 2:53
  the Celtics at the time of the pot.
• 2:55
  I think they're -5 got up to 6 1/2.
• 2:57
  That total ticked up. So we did our part, anticipated
• 3:00
  the market got some closing line value.
• 3:03
  They're right on pace at halftime, actually above or well
• 3:06
  on their way to cash in this over third quarter.
• 3:08
  They combined for 36 points and they end up coming.
• 3:11
  I think it was like 6 points short of cashing that over.
• 3:13
  But man, Celtics just completely late in Egg.
• 3:16
  I probably should have just taken the points there with the
• 3:18
  Lakers, but unfortunately, 2 and 3 -. 1.59 units.
• 3:22
  But let's see if we can finish off our week, hopefully with a
• 3:25
  winning day as we steam into conference championship weekend.
• 3:29
  So without further ado, let's get right back to college
• 3:32
  basketball. I got 3 plays here for you today
• 3:35
  guys, and of course you got 3 bets.
• 3:38
  The goal isn't to go 3 and O is to go 2 and one.
• 3:41
  Have realistic expectations. Know that it's volatile out
• 3:44
  there in the betting market for college hoops.
• 3:46
  Let's see if we can just rob a bank and get away with it and
• 3:49
  hopefully have some winners here for tonight.
• 3:51
  So first one on the board for me, 6:00 Eastern Time, Toledo
• 3:55
  and Bowling Green. So a little bit of an early
• 3:57
  start here. If you want to play this one,
• 3:59
  make sure you get it in not a 7:00 A 6:00 PM Eastern Time.
• 4:02
  But going into it. We have Toledo 10 and eight on
• 4:04
  the year. They just dropped two of their
• 4:06
  last three. However, just got crushed by
• 4:08
  Kent State 83 to 64 lost outright as a one point home
• 4:12
  favorite. Similarly, Bowling Green 7:00
• 4:15
  and 11:00 on the year. They've lost three of their last
• 4:17
  four just came up short against Miami OH 84 to 76.
• 4:22
  But they did cover that game as a nine and a half point Rd. dog.
• 4:25
  So what we've seen across the market here, well, pretty
• 4:27
  consistent movement in favor of Toledo.
• 4:30
  Toledo Open This game listed around A2 Point Rd. favorite and
• 4:34
  we've seen Toledo get jacked up here to -2 1/2 and a lot of
• 4:38
  these two and a half juiced up. Even some books touch three.
• 4:41
  So Toledo open as a short favorite has become more of a
• 4:44
  short favorite and we're seeing some pretty good splits on
• 4:47
  Toledo at DraftKings. Toledo is getting 55% of spread
• 4:50
  bets but 61% of spread dollars. So that tells me that it's
• 4:54
  almost a 5050 line move. Again, public is basically split
• 4:58
  maybe very slightly toward Toledo because they have a
• 5:01
  slightly better record. However, it's not just the
• 5:03
  public, it's smart money moving that number in favor of the
• 5:06
  Rockets as well. Now, Ken Palm has Toledo winning
• 5:09
  by one point. He also has Toledo, however,
• 5:12
  ranked much higher, 211 in the country versus 286 for Bowling
• 5:16
  Green. So you guys know the drill.
• 5:18
  We got a sharp line move toward Toledo, but what if Ken Palm is
• 5:21
  right and they win by one point? We want to win our bet, not lose
• 5:24
  our bet if we're laying 2 or 2 1/2 now at this point.
• 5:27
  So I'm money line Toledo, I got them at -145 on the money line.
• 5:30
  And if you look at the bet splits, they look really good on
• 5:33
  the money line here, which is further evidence to me that wise
• 5:36
  guys, again, are protecting themselves, mitigating risk by
• 5:39
  going Toledo money line, not laying the points.
• 5:42
  So at DraftKings, 69% of bets over 80% of dollars are going
• 5:48
  with Toledo here, which really, you know, coincides and jives
• 5:51
  with the line move in their favor.
• 5:53
  Here's a system match though that cashed on Campbell last
• 5:56
  night. And here's one thing about
• 5:57
  sports betting. I think it's important, you
• 5:59
  know, if you're losing, you try to recreate and try to figure
• 6:02
  out like what's going on, did I get it right?
• 6:04
  Did I get it wrong? Or sometimes when you win a bet,
• 6:07
  you're like, oh, how can I find games that similar situation.
• 6:10
  So it got me thinking about Campbell, Campbell last night in
• 6:14
  terms of a short favorite against the really bad team.
• 6:18
  So when I qualified that and I dialed it up in my database, I
• 6:21
  was looking at short Rd. favorites that are -5 or less
• 6:25
  playing a bad team. And I qualified a bad team by if
• 6:28
  you have a win percentage of 35% or less.
• 6:30
  So if you're a 350 team or less, if you play those teams straight
• 6:34
  up on the year, they are 80 and 4067 percent, 10% ROI.
• 6:39
  So basically that Campbell spot from last night.
• 6:42
  Similar here. System match here on Toledo.
• 6:45
  Toledo. I'm also going to bank on a few
• 6:47
  things. Better offensive efficiency.
• 6:49
  They ranked 98th in the country versus 274 for Bowling Green.
• 6:54
  They take much better care of the ball, 15th in the country in
• 6:57
  terms of the fewest turnovers or turnover percentage.
• 7:01
  Bowling Green, meanwhile, ranks 143.
• 7:04
  So Toledo takes much better care of the ball, better offense.
• 7:07
  We got the line move, we got the bet splits.
• 7:09
  We got Ken Palm saying yes, they'll win, but only by 1,
• 7:12
  which is why we're going money line.
• 7:13
  And then also conference play. How do you play against your
• 7:16
  peers, your competition? Toledo's four and two in
• 7:18
  conference play. Bowling Green is 2 and four.
• 7:21
  Rhythm, Even though Ken Palm has Toledo winning by one, we have
• 7:25
  rhythm predicting Toledo -2.3. So again, similar spot is
• 7:30
  Campbell last night. Good team or kind of a fate of a
• 7:34
  bad team on a short Rd. favorite.
• 7:36
  I'm going with my first play tonight, hopefully starter night
• 7:38
  off. Night off with the winner,
• 7:40
  Toledo, the Rockets, Let's go. Toledo on the money line -145
• 7:46
  next one for you, Kent State and Ohio.
• 7:49
  So Kent State comes into this one.
• 7:51
  This is 7:00 game. The Golden Flashes are 12:00 and
• 7:54
  6:00. They just snapped A2 game losing
• 7:56
  streak with that 8364 blowout win over Toledo, easily winning
• 8:00
  outright as a one point Rd. dog. On the flip side, Ohio 10:00 and
• 8:05
  8:00, but they've lost two in a row.
• 8:06
  They just filled the Eastern Michigan 94 to 87, lost outright
• 8:10
  as an 8 1/2 point Rd. favorite. So what we seen across the
• 8:13
  market here, well, pretty drastic sharp line move in favor
• 8:17
  of Kent State. This game opened actually with
• 8:20
  Ohio favorite, Ohio around a 2 1/2 point home favorite.
• 8:23
  And we've seen this line flip all the way to Kent State -1
• 8:27
  some books even up to Kent State -1 1/2.
• 8:30
  So it's been pretty consistent here in favor of dog to fave
• 8:34
  line move in terms of Kent State opening a dog and now flipping
• 8:38
  to a favorite. Now if we look at the bet splits
• 8:41
  for Kent State, they look pretty good as well.
• 8:43
  Currently at DraftKings, Kent State is only taking in 41% of
• 8:48
  spread bets, but 59% of spread dollars.
• 8:51
  Then you look at circa 67% of spread bets, yet 89% of spread
• 8:56
  dollars. So both books, the National
• 8:58
  DraftKings public book and the Vegas Sharp book there with
• 9:01
  circa low bets, higher dollars coinciding with the line move
• 9:06
  toward Kent State. Now, once again, this is a money
• 9:08
  line play for me. We're looking at Kent State -1
• 9:11
  -, 1 1/2. You know the drill.
• 9:13
  They win by one. We got to win our bet.
• 9:15
  And it's really not a very expensive money line price
• 9:17
  either. You might be able to even shop
• 9:19
  around and find Kent State like -110 -. 115 is probably your
• 9:23
  more available number. But if you look at the bet
• 9:25
  splits, they look great in terms of the money line as well.
• 9:27
  Only 39% of money line bets, but 73% of money line dollars at
• 9:32
  DraftKings and then at circa 67% money line bets, 97% of money
• 9:38
  line dollars. So whether it's the spread or
• 9:40
  the money line, both really good low bets, higher dollars split
• 9:43
  in favor of Kent State along with that dog to fave line move
• 9:47
  which we love. Now, if you look at a couple
• 9:50
  things here, Ohio is missing a couple of very good players.
• 9:54
  So this is partly why I think you're seeing this big line move
• 9:57
  toward Kent State because the Ohio Bobcats are going to be
• 10:01
  without. AJ Clayton averages 15.5 points
• 10:04
  per game and Aiden Hadaway averages 10.4 points per game.
• 10:08
  And actually Clayton is their leading scorer.
• 10:10
  So sometimes, again, it's semantics, like did sharps hit
• 10:13
  Kent State? Did the line move go toward Kent
• 10:16
  State because of the injuries? Maybe a little bit of
• 10:18
  combination of both. Maybe sharps found out those
• 10:20
  injuries in steam Kent State. Maybe the book saw and move the
• 10:23
  line. But either way, with those guys
• 10:25
  being out tells you how how valuable they are to the line
• 10:28
  and where that smart money is leaning.
• 10:30
  Kent State in addition to again fate here of Ohio with their 2
• 10:34
  two of their best players being injured, much better defensive
• 10:37
  efficiency. They ranked 61 in the country
• 10:40
  versus 223 for for Ohio. And the Golden Flashes also have
• 10:46
  been really good on the road. Knock on wood, but they're five
• 10:48
  and two on the road. They're actually the best Rd.
• 10:51
  team in the Mac. There's no other team that's
• 10:53
  three games, about 500 on the road.
• 10:55
  So hopefully they're not, you know, starstruck or antsy going
• 10:58
  on the road. Hopefully they feel good as a,
• 11:00
  you know, US against the world road warrior mentality.
• 11:04
  So I'm gonna play Kent State here again.
• 11:07
  Got a very short money line, as low as -110 and our friends,
• 11:10
  friends at Rhythm have Kent State -0.8 points.
• 11:14
  And again, this is in addition to the factor of these injuries
• 11:17
  for Ohio. If you look at Ken Palm, Ken
• 11:19
  Palm actually has Ohio winning by two points.
• 11:22
  But I believe that projection was basically set before the
• 11:26
  news of these star players being out.
• 11:28
  So if Ken Palm were to adjust it with the players being out, you
• 11:31
  know, you'd probably guessed that he would then make Kent
• 11:33
  State a short favorite. But either way, guys, we got a
• 11:36
  dog to fave line move, two injuries to fade on Ohio.
• 11:39
  We got a road warrior team on the road Once again.
• 11:41
  I'm going Kent State to win this game.
• 11:43
  Hopefully got him on the money line at -110 last bit of the
• 11:48
  night. 9:00 game here. Penn State and Iowa the most
• 11:51
  heavily bet game of the night. Hopefully we can get a winner
• 11:54
  here with the Hawkeyes. 9:00 Eastern Time.
• 11:57
  Penn State comes in 13 and 6. They just snapped A4 game losing
• 12:01
  streak with an 80 to 72 win over Rutgers covered as a 7 point
• 12:06
  home favorite. Meanwhile, Iowa 12 and seven,
• 12:09
  they've lost three in a row, just fell to Minnesota, 72 to
• 12:12
  67. They're an 8 1/2 point home
• 12:14
  favorite in that one. So if we have bounced back spot
• 12:16
  toward Iowa, now, why do I like Iowa?
• 12:19
  Because not only is it by low play, but it's a very sharp line
• 12:22
  move. Iowa open this game as low as a
• 12:25
  2 or 2 1/2 point home favorite and we've seen Iowa now get
• 12:28
  steamed up to -3 1/2. So that is a big, you know, one
• 12:33
  1 1/2 point line move in their favor.
• 12:35
  If you look at DraftKings, Hawkeyes are taking in 68% of
• 12:39
  spread bets, 79% of spread dollars.
• 12:42
  So again, slight majority of public betters, but also heavy
• 12:45
  smart money, a pro and Joe split in favor of Iowa, which goes
• 12:49
  with that line move. And once again, money line play.
• 12:52
  I was able to find Iowa money line, I believe as low as -160
• 12:55
  at FanDuel. Some books are a little bit
• 12:57
  higher, closer to -175 but of course, shop around.
• 13:00
  Get that best number at Circa. Iowa's only getting 33% of money
• 13:05
  line bets, but 62% of money line dollars.
• 13:08
  So only 1/3 of tickets, but nearly 2/3 of the money tells me
• 13:11
  that those wagers on Iowa money line are big.
• 13:14
  They're from Sharp betters coming in there on the Hawk
• 13:17
  guys. And this is especially important
• 13:19
  because Ken Palm has IO winning by three.
• 13:22
  So again, if you lay 3 1/2, yes, you're saving the juice, which
• 13:25
  is great if you win. But let's say they win by three
• 13:27
  or one or two and you lose your 3 1/2.
• 13:30
  So that's why I'm going money line here with that -160 from
• 13:33
  FanDuel, friends at Rhythm have Iowa -2.3.
• 13:38
  So again, has a winning but not covering that number, which is
• 13:41
  why to me money line is the the safer bet.
• 13:44
  Now. Iowa has the better offensive
• 13:46
  efficiency. They ranked 19th in the country
• 13:48
  versus 41st for Penn State. Better effective field goal
• 13:52
  percentage, 59% versus 55%, better three-point shooting, 39%
• 13:57
  versus 35% and they take better care of the ball.
• 14:00
  They ranked 13th in the fewest turnovers per game versus 98th
• 14:05
  for Penn State. In addition to that buy low in
• 14:07
  terms of favorite on a losing skid against a sell high dog off
• 14:10
  a win, you also have some home Rd. splits that favor Iowa.
• 14:14
  Here we have Iowa 10 and two at home, Penn State just one and
• 14:17
  three on the road. So we've got a good sharp line
• 14:20
  move, good splits, buy low opportunity.
• 14:23
  Let's see if Iowa can win this game in the cornfields for us.
• 14:26
  I got Iowa money line again, got that as low as -160 earlier
• 14:30
  today. Now looking toward the weekend
• 14:32
  and again, reminder you can TuneIn right after this pot is
• 14:35
  dropped to the live stream for Rhythm Sunday.
• 14:38
  Not Sunday sweats, but Friday sweats, myself and James Santor.
• 14:41
  But let me give you officially my two best bets for this Sunday
• 14:45
  as we got 2 huge games on tap and we'll find out who will play
• 14:48
  and face off in the Super Bowl. Now, I may have told you before,
• 14:52
  but if you don't know now you know I'm going to Washington
• 14:55
  Commanders plus 6 1/2. Now, the key here is to get the
• 14:59
  hook. You got to get the hook if you
• 15:01
  if your book is not offering the 6 1/2 wait between now and
• 15:04
  Sunday, maybe it'll get back up to 6 1/2.
• 15:08
  I thought it was definitely going there at one point cuz
• 15:10
  Philly was -6 -, 115. Now it's evened out a bit -6 -,
• 15:15
  110. Some books are creeping up to
• 15:17
  115 again, so you might want to wait it out if you're on
• 15:20
  Washington and I've really and again where I got the six and
• 15:24
  half, it's still available +6 and half -120 at FanDuel.
• 15:27
  So that's in pocket. That's our I've already bet
• 15:29
  that, but it a couple days ago now.
• 15:31
  I tried to explain this yesterday, but just let me give
• 15:33
  you just a quick, you know, Cliffs notes recap here at a few
• 15:36
  people say to me, hey, why are you going commanders?
• 15:39
  Aren't they a trendy dog? Isn't Philly the sharp play?
• 15:42
  Partly my answers to those questions are yes and yes.
• 15:46
  Philly is sharp. Philly open -4 1/2 -, 5.
• 15:50
  Now they're 5 1/2. Now they're six.
• 15:52
  So we've definitely seen this line move toward Philadelphia.
• 15:55
  If you look at the bet splits, yes, Washington is a little
• 15:58
  trendy. They're getting 61% of spread
• 16:00
  bets at DraftKings, and they're getting 59% of bets at Circa.
• 16:05
  But what I tried to explain in terms of why I'm taking
• 16:08
  Washington plus 6 1/2 is 1. Even though Washington is
• 16:13
  getting majority bets 6159%, that's not 70 or 80%.
• 16:18
  So it's not that overwhelmingly public.
• 16:20
  But then also it's about the number.
• 16:22
  I tried to make this case yesterday, but to me, Washington
• 16:25
  with the hook and Jayden Daniels is the value play.
• 16:27
  It's not the sharp play because Philly has a good low bets,
• 16:30
  higher dollar split the line move toward Philly.
• 16:32
  But when you're betting NFL key numbers, 37106 is a big one,
• 16:38
  obviously because you know, we moved in the extra point a few
• 16:40
  years ago and you're seeing more games laying on 6 than in
• 16:42
  previous years. You know, 2 field goals is 6.
• 16:45
  So that's important. But anyway, Philly, let's just
• 16:49
  say they win by 6 points. The early sharps that bet Philly
• 16:53
  -4 1/2 -, 5 - 5 1/2, they win the bet.
• 16:56
  If you lay a late 6 or a 6 1/2 with Philly, you push or lose.
• 17:00
  So I don't, I don't have to, you know, refresh your memory too
• 17:02
  much. Remember the Rams Philly game
• 17:04
  over this past weekend? You almost saw the carbon copy,
• 17:07
  same exact Deja Vu line move where Philly opened 4 1/2 -. 5
• 17:12
  got bet up all the way to -7 the early sharps won.
• 17:15
  Those of us who took the points there with the Rams were able to
• 17:18
  cash and cover because Philly won by 6.
• 17:20
  Therefore the again early bird got the worm.
• 17:23
  I mentioned this yesterday and try to, you know, mention as
• 17:25
  much as I can. Bet favorites early, dogs late.
• 17:28
  Those who bet Philly early covered.
• 17:30
  Those who bet Philly late lost. Those who bet Washington late
• 17:33
  won. So it's a value play to me.
• 17:36
  It's also a really good rhythm edge.
• 17:38
  Rhythm is predicting Washington plus 3.7.
• 17:41
  So I love that. I love that the AI sharps over
• 17:45
  at Rhythm are saying this is closer to a field goal 4 point
• 17:48
  game. We're getting 6 1/2.
• 17:49
  Good value. Also give you these systems here
• 17:52
  that I mentioned yesterday. But if you look at dogs this
• 17:54
  postseason, 7 and three against the spread, they're 61% ATS
• 17:58
  since 2017. If you're a playoff dog who
• 18:01
  missed the postseason the previous year, like Washington,
• 18:04
  66% ATS since 2017. And then of course mention this
• 18:08
  as well, but it's a divisional game again.
• 18:11
  These teams have already played each other twice.
• 18:13
  They've split the season series. I know when Washington 1 you had
• 18:16
  Jalen Hurts get hurt in that one, but when you have two teams
• 18:19
  in the same division, I automatically lean dog because
• 18:22
  of the built in familiarity. Knowing your opponent.
• 18:24
  When you know your opponent, it's def.
• 18:27
  It's historically a benefit to the defense because you kind of
• 18:29
  know how to match up and how the other team might attack you.
• 18:33
  So it leads to, again, tighter games.
• 18:35
  So I'm not going to argue with anyone who says Philly Sharp.
• 18:37
  I'm not going to argue with you. If you like Philly, I would just
• 18:40
  say, you know, if you're laying six 6 1/2, now you're getting
• 18:42
  the worst of the number. So to me, the value play is to
• 18:45
  go divisional log with the inflated line betting system
• 18:50
  match and take the points there. So I am on Commanders Plus 6 1/2
• 18:56
  and officially I put in my bet for Buffalo KC you probably knew
• 18:59
  where I was leaning. I'd mention it on the pot a few
• 19:01
  times this week, but I put it in pocket.
• 19:04
  I made the play today and I am now officially on Chiefs money
• 19:08
  line. Now this one I feel pretty good
• 19:11
  about because this is just a classic fade the trendy dog
• 19:14
  sharp reverse line move betting system match.
• 19:16
  I got everything lining up on Kansas City.
• 19:18
  Now why do I like KC? Well First off the lines moving
• 19:21
  in their favor. But unlike that Philly game, it
• 19:24
  hasn't moved too much to where I would.
• 19:27
  I would kind of argue that the value is still there, especially
• 19:30
  on the money line. Kansas City open this game -1 -,
• 19:33
  1 1/2. They've now been bet up to 1 1/2
• 19:35
  across the board. Some shops even too.
• 19:38
  So what's notable to me is not only that the line is moving
• 19:41
  toward Kansas City, but that this is a reverse line move.
• 19:43
  The public is on the bills, I think partly, and I'll give you
• 19:47
  the stats here, 63% of spread bets are on the Bills at
• 19:50
  DraftKings. 64% of bets are on the Bills at Circa.
• 19:54
  So the bills are even more trendy.
• 19:56
  They're getting more public support than Washington, But
• 19:59
  unlike Washington where the line moved against them created a buy
• 20:02
  low opportunity, Buffalo is seeing this line go against them
• 20:07
  to where it kind of lets you know, hey, fade the trendy dog
• 20:10
  sharp reverse line move. Let's fade Buffalo and play
• 20:13
  Kansas City here. Now I wanted to mention too in
• 20:16
  terms of the the public support. I think part of it, and again,
• 20:20
  it's really important to kind of like, I don't watch a ton of
• 20:23
  SportsCenter, I don't watch a ton of the like I'm a big Boston
• 20:26
  talk radio guy. I always have like if you are
• 20:28
  from New England, Felger and Naz on the background, they're the
• 20:30
  biggest Boston sports talk radio show.
• 20:34
  But if you look at the national media, there's so much talk
• 20:37
  about the Chiefs and the penalties.
• 20:39
  And I get it. It does seem like they get a lot
• 20:41
  of calls and basically there are some deep dives where it's true
• 20:46
  their opponents get way more penalties than they do.
• 20:49
  But I feel like the media is hammering this story so much to
• 20:52
  a point where like the the bias of the public is saying, yeah,
• 20:56
  let's let's the Chiefs should lose.
• 20:58
  They deserve to lose. They're getting all these calls.
• 21:00
  Let's bet against them and beat them and win and get to get our
• 21:03
  revenge. I think there's partly that
• 21:05
  narrative forming of an anti Kansas City play pro Buffalo
• 21:09
  Buffalo's had a great year, no doubt about it, but a bias, you
• 21:12
  know, against Kansas City to want to want to beat them to
• 21:15
  kind of prove them wrong get their get their comeuppance with
• 21:18
  all these good with all these calls in their favor.
• 21:20
  So I think that is partly at play as well.
• 21:23
  But aside from the the line move, you love the bet splits on
• 21:27
  Kansas City at at circa. They're only getting 36% bets,
• 21:30
  59% dollars. And then I'll mention some more
• 21:34
  stats with you and then I'll I'll finish off with not really
• 21:36
  a stat related edge, but something that you know, I can't
• 21:39
  help but but mention. But in terms of some stats here
• 21:43
  in favors of in favor of the chiefs, Patrick Mahomes as a
• 21:45
  home favorite, 82% straight up in his career, 11 and two
• 21:49
  straight up in the postseason. I also like the fact that the
• 21:52
  chiefs have a one day rest advantage.
• 21:54
  They last played on Saturday the 18th.
• 21:57
  The Bills played Sunday the 19th.
• 21:59
  They also also the Chiefs had the early game on Saturday.
• 22:02
  The Bills had the late game on Sunday.
• 22:04
  You also look at rest first tired, not just in terms of
• 22:06
  their last game, but how these teams handled the end of the
• 22:09
  season. The Bills played every game.
• 22:11
  They've already played two playoff games.
• 22:13
  They had to play the Ravens. They won, but against the
• 22:15
  physical team. Whereas Kansas City sat there
• 22:18
  guys Week 18, they had a bye and then they looked pretty good
• 22:21
  last week in their first playoff game.
• 22:23
  So I think there is a rest first tired involved in favor of
• 22:26
  Kansas City. And then if you look at the
• 22:28
  conference championship, like if you like Philly, I would tease
• 22:31
  them down to a pick. I'm not a parlay guy, but hey,
• 22:34
  you could you could tie that up with Kansas City money line if
• 22:37
  you if that's the way you want to go.
• 22:39
  But here's something that would benefit Philly and Kansas City
• 22:41
  just winning this game. If you look at conference
• 22:44
  championship chalk, you get to the AFC or NFC championship
• 22:48
  game. The last 20 years, excuse me,
• 22:51
  favorites are 29 and 13, straight up, 69%.
• 22:54
  If you're a home favorite, you're 26 and 1072% straight up.
• 22:59
  So basically when you get to this, this, you know, this
• 23:02
  level, the AFC Championship, NFC Championship weekend, home
• 23:06
  favorites are winning three out of four games.
• 23:08
  Now there's only two games, but you know, think of it in terms
• 23:10
  of, you know, 75% almost are winning, which does bode well
• 23:15
  with Kansas City. Now my friends at Rhythm, they
• 23:18
  have Kansas City like -0.2 -, 0.5.
• 23:22
  So that is some respect for Buffalo.
• 23:24
  I would just mention if you like Buffalo, how can you not want to
• 23:27
  tease them 1 1/2 up to 7 1/2. You could, you know, tease down
• 23:31
  Philly, tease up Buffalo. I'm not going to argue with you
• 23:33
  there. But this will play for me where
• 23:36
  the data is moving toward the Chiefs, Publix, Buffalo, but
• 23:38
  Lions going to Kansas City. We got great bet splits.
• 23:41
  My home stats rest first tired. And then here's the final little
• 23:45
  angle that I'll give you with Kansas City Chiefs.
• 23:47
  Now I remember I told the story I think earlier in the week few
• 23:51
  years ago, Chiefs, Eagles, Super Bowl.
• 23:54
  I played the Eagles and I I forget the number that it was
• 23:58
  there, but anyway, things like maybe it was like 2, two and a
• 24:00
  half. Anyway, right before the game
• 24:03
  started, I had relatives visiting my mother-in-law,
• 24:05
  father-in-law, my my father-in-law, great guy Jerry.
• 24:09
  He was like, oh, who you got? Josh?
• 24:10
  He he always asks like who I got, which I respect and enjoy,
• 24:14
  But I said, Hey, I got eagles and he looked at me kind of
• 24:17
  inquisitively and he said, really, you're betting against
• 24:19
  Mahomes. And the second he said that, I'm
• 24:22
  like, oh, what am I doing? Of course, Eagles had the lead.
• 24:25
  They should probably should have won the game then up losing
• 24:27
  Kansas City wins. But I vowed after that day to
• 24:30
  never bet against Mahomes as a dog and never bet against the
• 24:34
  Chiefs, You know, short number in a big playoff game.
• 24:38
  I basically took that, that, you know, that oath into last year's
• 24:43
  Super Bowl and DraftKings and Beeson sent me out to Vegas,
• 24:46
  spent a week in Vegas, everyone's telling me San
• 24:48
  Francisco. And I said, hey, Mahomes is a
• 24:50
  dog. Mahomes in this spot.
• 24:52
  I'm living or dying with the Chiefs.
• 24:53
  They rewarded me. They they beat the beat the
• 24:56
  49ers epic fashion in last year's Super Bowl.
• 24:59
  So ever since I made the the vow to never bet against Mahomes
• 25:03
  again in a big game, I've been undefeated.
• 25:06
  So I'm taking that into this game.
• 25:07
  That's not the that's not the main reason I'm betting this
• 25:09
  game, but it is partly the reason why I'm taking Kansas
• 25:12
  City. Again, the main reason is the
• 25:14
  line move public Buffalo line going to Kansas City.
• 25:17
  They just look sharp on their own.
• 25:19
  But I can't help but but stay true to that vow that I made and
• 25:23
  again haven't proven wrong yet. Maybe I will be this weekend.
• 25:25
  Maybe Buffalo will win. I know their other fan base is
• 25:28
  loving their team and hoping that that'll happen, but I'm
• 25:31
  going to go with the market and go with my my oath to stick with
• 25:35
  Patrick Mahomes in big games. So I'm on Kansas City money
• 25:38
  line. Shop around.
• 25:40
  I believe I got them at -125 that's pretty much widely
• 25:43
  available. So I got Commanders plus 6 1/2.
• 25:46
  Make sure you get the hook. Wait it out or bet it at FanDuel
• 25:49
  right now and Kansas City Money line.
• 25:52
  So that about does it for episode 205 of the All systems
• 25:55
  Go sports betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 25:58
  I got to get this posted and get ready for our live stream here,
• 26:00
  which is about to take place. But this is part of the pod
• 26:03
  where we wrap things up. And I start first by saying
• 26:06
  thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 26:07
  out of your busy lives. I know you guys got a lot going
• 26:10
  on. The fact that you listen to this
• 26:11
  pod each day and we've built this data-driven community from
• 26:15
  scratch, it means a ton to me. Obviously not a great week with
• 26:18
  our plays, but hey, I feel like we're making good plays and just
• 26:21
  not getting a single break or even beating closing lines and
• 26:23
  still losing some plays. So we just got got to keep
• 26:25
  sticking with it. But hopefully you value the
• 26:27
  insights. You enjoy the pod.
• 26:29
  Hopefully it's become a part of your sports betting routine.
• 26:32
  Maybe you play every bet that I make.
• 26:34
  By the way, if I, if I mention a play, I personally have bet
• 26:36
  myself, you know, maybe you pick and choose, maybe just sit back
• 26:40
  and listen. Maybe you fade them.
• 26:42
  Whatever you want to do is OK with me, but hopefully you value
• 26:45
  the insights. And if that is the case, could
• 26:47
  you please do me a solid and give this podcast a five star
• 26:50
  review on Spotify or iTunes would really mean a lot to me.
• 26:53
  If you want to recommend it to a friend, that'll be great.
• 26:56
  And if there's an option to follow the pod, click follow,
• 26:59
  although you get alerted as soon as it drops each day.
• 27:01
  Next, if you enjoy the style of betting breakdown, you're
• 27:04
  intrigued by data-driven betting.
• 27:06
  You're kind of interested in, you know, finding how the market
• 27:08
  and tracking the market, seeing how it moves, looking at bet
• 27:12
  splits, trying to, you know, piece together the puzzle of
• 27:14
  where's the smart money? How can I bet against the
• 27:16
  public? How can I take a contrarian
• 27:18
  approach and layer in sharp betting systems?
• 27:20
  If that's the case and you want to learn more about data-driven
• 27:23
  betting, you know what you should do?
• 27:24
  You should buy my book for yourself or for a friend, that
• 27:28
  person in your life that parlays everything.
• 27:30
  All you got to do is go to Amazon.com and type in the
• 27:32
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 27:35
  And again, it's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 27:38
  How lines are set, how they move, how to read line movement,
• 27:40
  how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or
• 27:43
  online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up a bankroll
• 27:45
  management plan, chapters on all the major sports, how to go
• 27:49
  contrarian, all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
• 27:52
  Betting. So pick one up, bring it to the
• 27:53
  book, I'll sign it for you, and I'll buy you a beer next.
• 27:57
  Have you taken advantage of a 7-8 free trial of juice, Reel or
• 28:00
  Rhythm yet? Well, if you haven't, now's the
• 28:02
  time to do it, especially with huge AFC NFC Championship games
• 28:05
  coming up. But Rhythm.
• 28:07
  Fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for game
• 28:10
  bets, spread money line in total as well as player props.
• 28:14
  Also Juicereel fantastic app to download so you can go both to
• 28:19
  the iTunes for Apple people or the Droid store whatever it's
• 28:24
  called. What is it?
• 28:25
  Google something Google Play algorithm and juice reel go just
• 28:29
  search them. You can download them get going
• 28:31
  here. But juice reel you can find and
• 28:33
  support the all systems go pod by following the best bets on
• 28:37
  juice reel. Just go to the social tab search
• 28:39
  ASG under score podcast. It's $4.99 a week.
• 28:44
  Not an arm and a leg cup of coffee basically, and consider
• 28:48
  it a tip jar. If you enjoy the pod.
• 28:49
  Also get good numbers. Hopefully when I bet these plays
• 28:52
  and put them in a little bit earlier than when the pod
• 28:54
  starts. But also you can tell Robo
• 28:56
  Jackson the best bet picks from the hardest work in AI bot,
• 28:59
  sharp mush indicators, arbitrage plays.
• 29:02
  Shop for the best line, all included when you download juice
• 29:05
  reel. So get rhythm, get juice reel.
• 29:07
  It'll be off and running, making sharp bets, hopefully increasing
• 29:11
  your winnings. That about does it for today's
• 29:14
  pod. As always, I'm gonna leave you
• 29:16
  with two things. One, whether I see you at the
• 29:18
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 29:21
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
• 29:23
  Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
• 29:26
  Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
• 29:29
  Massachusetts or out in the desert where the true grinders
• 29:32
  get down. Where Billy Walters sends his
• 29:34
  number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 29:36
  Point. Or Sweat and sharp contrarian
• 29:38
  plays, jumping in the stadium swim pool.
• 29:40
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, whoever it may, maybe
• 29:43
  you're going to walk up to me, you're going to show me a
• 29:47
  Campbell ticket, a Calgary Flames ticket, whatever you do.
• 29:50
  Saint Thomas Cal Baptist salts over, man, couldn't get one of
• 29:54
  those and have a winning night. It's rough out there lately,
• 29:56
  guys. We got to keep grinding, not get
• 29:58
  down on ourselves and just keep sticking to the model in the
• 30:02
  blueprint. And really, that's the key.
• 30:04
  I'll leave you with this. Winning, losing, hot, cold,
• 30:08
  scratching, clawing slightly up, slightly down shouldn't change
• 30:12
  the approach. I know inside, emotionally,
• 30:15
  obviously it's going to change the way you look at it.
• 30:18
  We're all human. Can't help but have feelings
• 30:20
  when you when you win or lose. But try to just stay as even
• 30:23
  keel as possible. If we can do that, if we can bet
• 30:26
  with our head and not our heart and approach each day with an
• 30:28
  open mind. Not saying I want to bet them or
• 30:31
  bet against them or this or that, but let the market talk to
• 30:34
  us. Tell us where the smart money is
• 30:35
  going long term, we're going to be successful sports better.
• 30:38
  So if we can find that sweet spot against the public with the
• 30:41
  house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get that closing
• 30:44
  line value. If we can do that long term, and
• 30:46
  I'm confident that we can, we're going to be successful sports
• 30:49
  betters. So have a fantastic weekend
• 30:52
  everyone. Enjoy your Friday night.
• 30:54
  Hope to see you on the rhythm live stream here, which will get
• 30:57
  started at 3:30 PM Eastern Time today.
• 30:59
  You can catch it live on Twitter.
• 31:01
  You can follow me at Josh under score insights.
• 31:04
  You can also check out the sharp report.
• 31:05
  I will write a sharp report for the big college hoop slate for
• 31:08
  tomorrow. Again, you can find that from my
• 31:10
  Twitter account around noon tomorrow, maybe even a little
• 31:13
  bit earlier. And then of course, go Chiefs,
• 31:16
  go Commanders on Sunday. But as always, guys, appreciate
• 31:20
  you guys tuning in. See if we can get two out of
• 31:22
  three tonight, finish the week off on a high note.
• 31:25
  And as always, we'll continue to grind.
• 31:27
  So that being said, have a great Friday, have an even better
• 31:30
  weekend, guys. I will see you back on Monday.
• 31:33
  That'll be episode 206 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 31:36
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 31:40
  great weekend.