Latest / Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds / Recapping Jeff Lebby & Ms State's Path to 6 Wins ‖ Dave Bartoo

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Recapping Jeff Lebby & Ms State's Path to 6 Wins ‖ Dave Bartoo · Out of Bounds with Bo Bounds

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  Speaker 1: The Out of Bound Show ESPN one oh five nine.
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  Speaker 1: Bolonne Tequila Bo Bounds Stay Bar two with your ESPN
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  Speaker 1: one oh five nine The Zone. All Right, we're gonna
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  Speaker 1: go total wins through a few teams. Here's start with
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  Speaker 1: the Ole miss Rebels or Mississippi State, Mississippi State. All right,
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  Speaker 1: we're gonna go total wins. Let's talk a little sports betting.
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  Speaker 1: It's not a Better Day or Afternoon of college Football
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  Speaker 1: or NFL Vegas style sports book inside the Golden Moon,
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  Speaker 1: the Timeout Sports Lounge on the property of Pearl River Resort.
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  Speaker 1: All right, let's go through MSU.
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  Speaker 2: Okay, and just to let everybody know is when I'm
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  Speaker 2: projecting these I'm using coach effect, Okay, what they have
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  Speaker 2: done relative to their talent as a head coach over
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  Speaker 2: their career. Okay, and that is relative to the guys
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  Speaker 2: that they're facing as well. So we'll you know, like
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  Speaker 2: a Pete Golding has no coach effect, so we're not
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  Speaker 2: going to be able to profile or yes, maybe exactly
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  Speaker 2: the same sense. But the guys he's playing, like when
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  Speaker 2: he plays in the Egg Bowl, he's going to be
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  Speaker 2: playing Jeff Levy who has a minus two point five
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  Speaker 2: to seven game coach effect on his career. Okay, So
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  Speaker 2: but on with with Mississippi State. So right now, the
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  Speaker 2: line I have, the market line I have is four
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  Speaker 2: and a half four and a half wins, Okay, And
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  Speaker 2: the numbers say average coaching from twenty twenty five, this
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  Speaker 2: is a five point four win season for Misissippi State.
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  Speaker 2: Say so, So everybody listening, keep that in mind. Average
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  Speaker 2: head coaching should be at five and a half wins.
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  Speaker 2: So if if we get to six and six here
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  Speaker 2: at stay eight, that is above average coaching wins at
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  Speaker 2: six and six. But because he is a negative coach
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  Speaker 2: effect for his career, the projected the mathematical projection for
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  Speaker 2: him is four point six wins. So the most likely
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  Speaker 2: outcome for Mississippi State right now in the numbers, based
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  Speaker 2: on the schedule, the coaches they're facing, and Jeff's first
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  Speaker 2: two years, most likely twenty seven percent four and eight,
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  Speaker 2: twenty six percent five and seven. And we talked about
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  Speaker 2: five and seven this year is better than five and
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  Speaker 2: seven last year.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, but we really I got him over the four
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  Speaker 1: point six. Okay, I got him going five and seven.
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  Speaker 2: You gotta go. Okay.
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  Speaker 1: And there is a clear path to six and six
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  Speaker 1: with the schedule that you pull.
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  Speaker 2: There there is, and that is the third most likely
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  Speaker 2: outcome for him at seventeen percent is six and six. Okay, Okay.
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  Speaker 2: So you look at this kind of like a triangle.
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  Speaker 2: Your top two projections are four and eight and five
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  Speaker 2: and seven, and in that six and six, look in
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  Speaker 2: that six and six. There has got to be there,
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  Speaker 2: probably has to be a signature winning there somewhere his
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  Speaker 2: first big win.
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  Speaker 1: Well, he hasn't won an SEC home game, and he
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  Speaker 1: has Vanderbilt, yep, well first Missouri, but he has Missouri.
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  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt and Auburn at home. Right, None of those teams
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  Speaker 1: are that good.
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  Speaker 2: No, Vanderbilt lost their their best quarterback, right, the best
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  Speaker 2: player of their probably existence, right, you know, And and
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  Speaker 2: Auburn new offensive coordador, new staff at home, and the
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  Speaker 2: Missouri right, and the Missouri which is not a which
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  Speaker 2: is you know, top twenty five recruiter, you know, I mean.
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  Speaker 1: But they're not top ten.
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  Speaker 2: No, No, it's a bottom half of the pack of
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  Speaker 2: the SEC. They're all at home, right, you got to
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  Speaker 2: take advantage of the home schedule when when you're playing
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  Speaker 2: teams like that. So yeah, in terms of the market line,
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  Speaker 2: I'm not betting Mississippi State. You say you take the
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  Speaker 2: over four and a half, that means four and eight,
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  Speaker 2: beach you. If I'm betting this, I'm willing I'll take
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  Speaker 2: five and seven. Right, I've bet one hundred on that. Yeah, okay, cool, now,
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  Speaker 2: one one little nugget.
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  Speaker 1: Then I can't believe I just said I'd bet on
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Levy.
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  Speaker 2: Now, well anyway, right, and whether it's Jeff, maybe.
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  Speaker 1: I do need to go get a Tito's bloody Mary.
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  Speaker 2: I don't like betting on minus coaches.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah no, you said that, and you've stayed you said
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  Speaker 1: that for years.
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  Speaker 2: Right, don't bet on negative coaches because well they are negative,
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  Speaker 2: right they they they they've let you down. So even
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  Speaker 2: if he hits five and seven and six and six,
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  Speaker 2: I don't see it as a good bet. Now, I
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  Speaker 2: will say, if you could buy it down, if you
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  Speaker 2: can get over under four. And this is something I
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  Speaker 2: want to talk to everybody about right now that's listening.
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  Speaker 2: Is that half way half point that four and a
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  Speaker 2: half to four. Think about it. Four and eight beat
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  Speaker 2: you at over four and a half. If you're at four,
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  Speaker 2: maybe you're at minus one fifty instead of minus one ten.
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  Speaker 2: But now he's got to go three and nine to
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  Speaker 2: beat you. That's a big difference. Betwe three nine to
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  Speaker 2: four and eight, no question. Right. So, so if you're
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  Speaker 2: looking at these things, if you have the opportunity, especially
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  Speaker 2: like on a draft Kings or a fan duel, even
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  Speaker 2: maybe the timeout lounge is see if you can if
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  Speaker 2: there's moving numbers that you can pay more for in
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  Speaker 2: the juice in order to get a better number to
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  Speaker 2: cover your ease. Right, Okay, one final nugget on Jeff
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  Speaker 2: the play caller.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, Jeff the play caller.
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  Speaker 2: And so I've asked the system to tell me what
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  Speaker 2: are some tendencies of these guys.
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  Speaker 1: Okay.
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  Speaker 2: So Jeff is very very run heavy in certain situations, Okay,
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  Speaker 2: And specifically, when he's at the goal line less than
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  Speaker 2: five yards any down distance is first, second, third, or
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  Speaker 2: fourth and goal less than five, he runs at seventy
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  Speaker 2: seven percent of the time, so third and short seventy
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  Speaker 2: five percent of the time. Red zone first downs he
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  Speaker 2: runs it seventy six percent of the time. So he
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  Speaker 2: is very, very run heavy in short yarded situations. In
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  Speaker 2: one score game though it flips third and long, third
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  Speaker 2: and seven, he ran it only nineteen percent of the time.
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  Speaker 2: Converted none of them.
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  Speaker 1: Oh wow, zero conversions.
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  Speaker 2: He ran it twenty four percent of the time, and
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  Speaker 2: on third and long over ten yards converted none of them.
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  Speaker 2: So the rushing game outside of third and six totally
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  Speaker 2: fell apart. Didn't work. Okay, but the past game and
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  Speaker 2: this is why I say, I'm not sure how good
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  Speaker 2: bike was Blake shaping our listeners right third and seven.
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  Speaker 2: Blake'scott third and seven to third and ten. He converted
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  Speaker 2: that throwing the ball only thirty four percent of the.
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  Speaker 1: Time, good lord, And when thirty four percent.
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  Speaker 2: Right and when you got him into third and long
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  Speaker 2: in a close game, so third and eleven or more
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  Speaker 2: shape and only converted eight percent of those throws. You
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  Speaker 2: ain't weight You want to know why you go one
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  Speaker 2: and fifteen? Try going eight percent on third and long
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  Speaker 2: in the sec in a tight ball game, right, so
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  Speaker 2: I think with Jeff though, is from a predictability standpoint,
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  Speaker 2: you want to in those in those short runs, those
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  Speaker 2: short downs first, second, and third down, loaded the box
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  Speaker 2: on them and try to force the pass. At least
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  Speaker 2: that's based on twenty four and twenty five numbers.
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  Speaker 1: Wow, did you hear Jackson?
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  Speaker 2: All right?
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  Speaker 1: Dave bar two on the Out of Bounds show, he
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  Speaker 1: loved the wood fired pizza. On a positive note as well,
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  Speaker 1: he loved the wood fired pizza.
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  Speaker 2: And on fourth down, fourth and three or more, he
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  Speaker 2: is one hundred percent pass fourth and one or two.
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  Speaker 2: He only passed at one time last year. So his
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  Speaker 2: line in the sand when it's fourth down, fourth and three,
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  Speaker 2: pin your ears back. You know you play the past
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  Speaker 2: fourth and one, fourth and two load the box. Only
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  Speaker 2: passed that one time last year. Okay, and maybe because
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  Speaker 2: he didn't trust his quarterback.
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  Speaker 1: Jeff Levy's numbers. Next coming up next, Oh miss win
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  Speaker 1: All right, I'm ready here we go, out of bounds,
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  Speaker 1: the win total for Mississippi State. The highest percentage came
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  Speaker 1: in at over under four point six wins. I took
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  Speaker 1: the over I know in that crazy, not by much.
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  Speaker 1: I mean I got them going five and seven, six
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  Speaker 1: and six. There's a clear, clear path. If they've done
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  Speaker 1: what they needed to do this offseason, that should not
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  Speaker 1: be too too difficult with home games against Vanderbilt, Missouri,
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  Speaker 1: home conference games against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Auburn and Tennessee
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  Speaker 1: Tech and Lo Monroe. I mean that's five home. I
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  Speaker 1: mean that's for what we are today, and you're gonna
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  Speaker 1: draw a tough schedule, regardless of who you are in
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  Speaker 1: the league, for what the SEC is today. If you
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  Speaker 1: have Linmanroe, Tennessee Tech, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Auburn at home
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  Speaker 1: and two road games against teams that are not that
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  Speaker 1: good and both of them may beat you, but at
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  Speaker 1: Minnesota and at South Carolina, the path to six and
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  Speaker 1: six should just not be. It shouldn't be dawning. It
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  Speaker 1: may be a little challenging, but it shouldn't be. I mean,
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  Speaker 1: that's going three and six in the league. That's going
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  Speaker 1: three and six in the league. We're not asking them
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  Speaker 1: to go four and five, and we're not asking them
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  Speaker 1: to go five and four, which is a way different
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  Speaker 1: to you. One game in football is okay, six and six.
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  Speaker 1: The path is there. Now we're gonna go Ale miss
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  Speaker 1: So Dave bar two Matrix Analytical on the out of
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