Latest / Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast / Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part One | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets

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Big 12 Betting Bonanza - Part One | Win Totals, Futures & Best Bets · Targeting Winners: A College Football Betting Podcast

0:03
Hello people, welcome to Targeting Winners.
0:06
This is our Part 1 of the Big 12 preview heading into the 2026
0:11
season. America's dumpster fire.
0:13
I'm here. Warren and Pete are you fellas.
0:17
Not too bad, man, not too bad. It's my last last full day in
0:20
mission in Mexico and I fly back to the States tomorrow, so
0:24
that's not great, but that's how that everything's good.
0:26
That's all right. Get your last shots of tequila
0:28
in before you head out. The good stuff anyway.
0:32
It's it's actually like 79° here today, so you'll probably be
0:37
looking at something similar when you get back.
0:39
Well, Traverse City is flooding tremendously at the moment,
0:42
which is going to be a problem. And one of the breweries burned
0:44
down, so that's bad too. Oh, that's terrible.
0:47
Wouldn't even go back. Yep, it's an outrageous.
0:51
Well, other good news, we're looking ahead for the Big 12 for
0:54
this year, but let's look ahead this Saturday, Darren, how about
0:57
those Philadelphia Flyers? They made the playoffs.
0:59
I'm not downstairs with my autograph Lindros jersey behind
1:02
me. But yeah, I never thought we'd
1:07
seen them in the playoffs again in our lifetime.
1:09
But yeah. And they get the Penguins.
1:12
So obviously if you're a Flyers, you don't like the Penguins.
1:16
In the Boo F the Penguins. They're underdogs, but yay Dan
1:20
Bladar. Your.
1:22
Career in Phillies. He is a wall.
1:24
Here we go, apparently. We'll see.
1:27
They'll probably get swept, but you know, hey, at least they're
1:29
there. So good for that.
1:30
That's right. Yeah.
1:32
So, well, let's jump into it. We got the Big 12 last year.
1:35
This was my favorite conference to bet on.
1:37
I think I had about 40 bets going into the season.
1:41
We creatively call this America's dumpster fire.
1:45
Darren, what are your initial thoughts on the conference in
1:48
general? We're going to do the first six.
1:49
I, I, you know what? This conference is a lot of fun
1:53
because we've talked about at our bankroll management show.
1:56
You know, if you're new to college football and you're
1:58
looking for a place to start and you don't live near an FBS
2:03
football campus, this is a great conference to start in because
2:07
nobody knows what the Hell's going on in this conference from
2:10
here to here anyway. So you're not really any farther
2:12
behind than anybody else. So the good thing about it is it
2:17
always seems like you can count on some kind of surprise.
2:20
I mean, if you've listened to us since the beginning, you know
2:24
what 2023 Oklahoma State did to me mentally and emotionally.
2:28
But they weren't expected to do anything.
2:30
They made the conference final. 2024 Arizona State pick the
2:33
finish dead last, not only won this conference, got to the
2:37
playoff, took Texas to double overtime before losing.
2:40
And then even last year after BYU lost Rett's laugh, yeah,
2:44
they weren't projected to finish any higher than like eighth.
2:47
They got to the conference final game.
2:49
And not even like it doesn't even mean conference final game.
2:52
Like Arizona was projected to win like 4 1/2 games and they
2:55
had a nine win season. So there's just something about
2:59
this conference, I don't know what it is.
3:01
I don't know if everybody's really good, everybody's really
3:04
bad. But one thing you can count on,
3:05
if you're a futures better, there is a chance that you can
3:09
make some money here 'cause we we've got one huge favorite
3:12
which we're not covering today, but somebody at 7:00 to 1:00 or
3:16
better is going to be playing in this game regardless.
3:19
And if you're lucky, 2 teams with Renee Assad will be playing
3:22
finals. So I love it from a betting
3:24
standpoint. Still, 2023 Oklahoma State
3:29
probably drank 12 bottles of Pepto throughout the season.
3:32
So yeah, I, I have no conference bets here because I can't do
3:37
that again. But I love it for a future
3:40
standpoint. Pete, what about you?
3:43
Yeah, I think, I think you said a lot there.
3:45
I mean, it's an interesting conference in that from the
3:49
betting perspective, there are so many interesting storylines
3:52
in this conference. You look at some of these teams,
3:55
you look at the players they brought in, you just look at the
3:57
volatility in this conference and how each year it's a
4:00
different team stepping up of late.
4:02
From that perspective, I mean, it's a wide open field unless
4:05
you're heavily on the favorite. Outside of that, it is a pretty
4:09
wide open field. So it is very interesting
4:12
looking at some of these teams like Arizona State, Baylor, BYUI
4:16
mean we're talking about a few of them today.
4:18
And I think we'll have some pretty interesting discussions
4:19
on those teams because, yeah, it's it's a difficult conference
4:25
to assess because there's so many teams that could be in
4:28
play, which is fun, right? But that's what makes this fun.
4:31
Is a better, especially with futures that makes futures
4:34
really fun. So all right.
4:38
And well, as you can tell, if you're watching on YouTube,
4:40
thank you, Please be sure to like and subscribe.
4:43
But we are so close to 100 subscribers, guys.
4:46
We've we've run a lot in the past couple of months.
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So please do us a favor and like on that and be one of the
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subscribers. Get us over to hump here.
4:54
Get us in the triple digits. This is only Part 1 because in
4:56
true college football fashion, the Big 12 has about 30 teams.
5:00
So we're going to do a half the conference now, half later.
5:03
Let's dive right in. Darren, let's start with you.
5:06
We're going to look at Arizona Wildcats plus 2250 to win the
5:09
conference and the Over Under is at 7 1/2 wins.
5:14
Yeah, this was, I was talking a little bit before we started
5:16
recording. I, I, I had a lean or at least a
5:20
pretty solid thought on seven of these eight teams.
5:23
And unfortunately, we're starting with the one team I
5:26
couldn't figure out to save my life.
5:28
So the one thing I love know if a feed it back for a fourth
5:32
year, like you're don't see that at all.
5:36
Who knows if you ever will. So that gives them a huge edge
5:40
in this conference, at least at that position.
5:44
You know, I took a look at this sketch.
5:46
But first of all, the defense, their defense really did get a
5:49
lot better as the year went on. Those first four conference
5:53
games, they were giving up like almost 30 points a game.
5:56
The last five, they were down to 17 points a game.
5:59
So this defense definitely took a big step in the right
6:01
direction. Now, the drawback to that is
6:03
they only have three returning starters.
6:06
I only like to see the returning starters on a defense if your
6:09
defense was really, really bad. So I think this team is going to
6:13
roll depending on how quickly that defense comes together, if
6:17
indeed it does. You know, you have that schedule
6:19
up there early on at BYU is not ideal.
6:23
And the only reason I didn't have a lean either way those
6:26
last five games from Halloween on, that is a tough stretch.
6:31
I mean, we're we're not breaking down four of those teams today.
6:35
But obviously, yeah, we all took a look at them because a lot of
6:38
these are on the schedules of the eight that we're covering
6:40
today. But that could be a potentially
6:43
brutal stretch there at Texas Tech.
6:47
I mean, TCU and Utah at least are home games at Kansas State.
6:51
I think Kansas State might actually be sneaky good this
6:54
year. And the Arizona State game is
6:56
the big rivalry. So if they can steal one, maybe
7:01
two of those, Yeah, I think that over is in play.
7:05
But even that at West Virginia game is kind of tough.
7:08
I mean, I, you know, we're not talking about them, but I kind
7:11
of like what they got going on too.
7:12
So tough schedule, though. They definitely have an edge at
7:16
quarterback and unfortunately first of 138 teams we're going
7:20
over I, I have no pet, no lean. So yeah, I'll turn it over to
7:25
Pete. Yeah, I mean, that's a, that's a
7:29
really good assessment. I mean, the offense, why do we
7:33
have a the offense? Having a fourth year starter in
7:37
college football these days is very unusual.
7:39
So that is a big deal. This offense has been good.
7:42
I expect it to remain consistent.
7:46
So I think the offense will be good.
7:47
The defense has improved, as you mentioned, which is which is
7:50
also good. So I think the team is going to
7:52
be serviceably good, especially on the offensive side of the
7:55
ball. The concern and you mentioned is
7:57
this schedule. This schedule is the later games
8:00
are really tough. That West Virginia game I think
8:03
is tougher than it looks. You know, So when you look at
8:06
that 7 1/2 wins, I mean, if I was leaning anywhere, it'd be
8:09
the under 'cause I'm trying to find, I'm trying to find even
8:12
like eight wins. Where am I finding eight wins
8:14
here? I don't think I'm finding eight
8:15
wins here. So I don't see that happening.
8:17
So I think the likelihood it's going to be under that 7 1/2,
8:20
because I don't see them, excuse me, going to BYU and winning.
8:24
Arizona State's a toss up. West Virginia at West Virginia's
8:27
going to be tough. Utah's going to be tough.
8:29
Regardless. Texas Tech at Texas Tech is
8:31
going to be a problem. I mean it, it's really hard for
8:35
me to find eight wins here. I didn't bet this, but I do
8:38
think that I'm, you know that my lean is definitely under that 7
8:42
1/2. It's just because of the
8:43
schedule. I think the team will be
8:44
competitive and good, but the schedule is a problem,
8:47
especially later in the year all.
8:50
Right. One team, one argument.
8:51
So I'm looking at the quarterback.
8:54
They got Fafida. So, you know, the 7 1/2 they
8:58
were, they won I think 9 games last year.
9:01
They got forfeeta coming back. They did make some additions at
9:05
the offensive line get a little bit better.
9:07
They got some depth coming in from the transfer portal, a lot
9:10
of action on the transfer portal.
9:12
But I like the quarterback for coming back for, you know, his
9:15
eighth and 9th year, whatever it is.
9:17
But yeah, I'm just on that alone.
9:20
I'm looking at the schedule I down the stretch.
9:23
It is tough. They got Texas Tech, you know,
9:25
at Texas Tech is going to be tough.
9:26
They got Utah, but they got Utah at home, TCU at home.
9:31
I think those are winnable games.
9:32
The quarterback gives them a better chance.
9:34
A Fafita. Fafita chance, anyone?
9:38
No. Very nice.
9:39
Very nicely. Oh, come on.
9:42
Anyway, actually because of the shut up, OK?
9:55
It's not that. Because of the.
9:56
Yeah, I know it's no longer funny because of the the odds.
10:01
I was going to bet them for a long shot for the conference.
10:04
Just got to think they might be able to even get to the game.
10:07
I did go 2 units on a bet here. I have them winning over 7 1/2
10:12
wins with two units on this one. I'm going with the quarterback.
10:15
Most important position. He's been there the longest,
10:17
most familiar. I think he can get up to speed
10:19
with the new receivers coming in.
10:22
They got some good players, some better schools coming in from
10:25
the transfer portal, even though my team has not been well, doing
10:30
well with the transport over the last couple years.
10:32
But I'm going to roll with Arizona.
10:33
I think they can. I think they can get to 8 wins.
10:36
I think they'll be very close to last year.
10:37
So if they can get to 8, that's more than 7 1/2.
10:40
So I'm going 2 units, 7 1/2 Arizona.
10:44
Wow, 2 units look at you. Yeah, I'm going 2 units less
10:47
bets, higher units. So last year this this
10:52
conference isn't burning me too much.
10:54
Last year I think I had like 9 bets on on the future.
10:57
So it's. A bit much.
10:59
Yeah, it is a bit much. It's such a tempting conference.
11:01
So it is. It is.
11:03
There's a lot of interesting storylines.
11:05
So we'll move on. We're going to go well, Arizona
11:08
State a little bit higher to win, plus 25 to win the
11:12
conference over under 6 1/2 wins, big drop off from last
11:15
year. I mean, you lost.
11:16
I mean, everybody going one of them is going to your boy down
11:21
there in Louisiana. So we'll start with Pete,
11:23
Arizona State. What are your thoughts?
11:25
Well, you mentioned one big thing, right, Sam Levitt going
11:28
South, and that's a big problem for this team, I think.
11:31
And when I look at this team, I mean, you've got coaching
11:33
continuity, which is good, but you have a lot of young players.
11:37
What? There's eight and a half, 6 1/2
11:39
win total there. That's reasonable, I think, for
11:43
this team. I think this is a team that's
11:45
built to win some games. I just don't know how they're
11:47
built to win this conference. I don't think they are bill to
11:49
win this conference at the moment.
11:50
They're playing Baylor early. Do you have the schedule here?
11:53
Yeah, I got it right here. Excellent.
11:56
They're playing Baylor relatively early, which is going
11:59
to be a really good measuring stick for this team.
12:01
We'll talk about Baylor in a little bit, obviously.
12:03
But you know, I think, you know, I think I like the coaching
12:06
staff. You know, it's just a challenge
12:08
replacing a quarterback like Sam with a cutter.
12:11
Bully seems to be an emerging name here.
12:13
That's that's coming forth with them.
12:14
So we'll see what happens there, but we don't know much about
12:18
that at this point. But yeah, I think the schedule's
12:21
a little challenging for them, especially with Baylor early and
12:24
Texas A and am was game two. I was at Michigan State, not
12:27
that it matters, but early on as well.
12:28
I mean, that's, you know, the schedule's tough.
12:31
So I think it's it's an issue for them. 6 1/2 Can I can I find
12:35
6 1/2 here maybe? So I think if I do anything or
12:39
leaning anywhere maybe over that 6 1/2.
12:41
But I just don't think this team will contend for for the
12:44
conference. I think that quarterback
12:45
situation is going to be a problem and their schedule is a
12:49
is a bit challenging. So those are my thoughts,
12:54
Darren. Yeah, I agree with the I did
12:56
have in my notes here Eileen to the over as well.
13:00
Pete had mentioned Cutter Bowley.
13:02
I do like that quarterback room because they do have Mikey Keene
13:06
in there as well. I don't believe he took a snap
13:08
at Michigan last year, Pete. He didn't.
13:10
He was on the team, not played at all.
13:12
But still, he's got that experience with his time at
13:15
Fresno State. So if the bowling experiment
13:18
doesn't work out, at least you've got an experience back up
13:20
there. So I think that helps them.
13:21
Again, you had mentioned they lost a ton.
13:25
I'm curious to see how they performed in that first game
13:28
against Kansas. That's a team they should win.
13:30
But those overseas games, I believe that's in London.
13:35
Yeah, some of these teams that go over there especially it
13:37
seems like if you lose that game, like your, your season
13:41
just seems to be cursed or whatever.
13:42
But that kind of travel can mess with a team for for like 3 or 4
13:46
weeks after you get back. So looking at that schedule,
13:50
those, those 3 Rd. games, Texas Tech, A&M and BYU, those are
13:54
probably losses right there. So much like Pete, I look back,
13:57
I was like, OK, well, can they go nine and two or I'm sorry,
14:00
not nine and two, seven and two and whatever they have left.
14:05
And I think they can. I mean, if you're making this
14:07
bet on the over, you're betting on Kenny Dillingham.
14:10
You're remembering what he did in 2024.
14:12
I looked it up with only had nine returning starters, you
14:16
know, and he took him to a conference title.
14:18
But, you know, I also agree that I don't think they're going to
14:20
be competing for that conference title.
14:23
But if I had to bet on Kenny Dillingham to win seven games
14:27
with his team, I would bet that. But I'm not going to because
14:33
they did lose a ton. Only four returning starters
14:36
combined on both sides of the ball.
14:38
So I I agree with the lean on the over.
14:42
So agree. I don't believe this team is is
14:45
sniffing the conference title game.
14:48
All right, all right, let's move on.
14:50
We talked mentioned Baylor earlier, now here they are here
14:53
at +2250 to win the conference over under his 6 1/2 wins.
14:58
Darren, we can start with you this time.
15:00
How we doing? Yeah, Pete and I were talking
15:02
about this before we get before we got going.
15:05
He's he's kind of high on the Manhattan.
15:07
I'm really not. And I'll just keep my stuff
15:09
short because Pete does have a bet here.
15:11
So I want him to to have the time.
15:13
This just comes down to can I trust two people?
15:17
One, can I trust DJ Lagway so far in his two years?
15:22
I can't. Some of it is health, some of it
15:25
is probably playing in SEC. We all grew up around horse
15:27
racing, so to use an analogy from there, maybe he's dropping
15:32
in class, playing in the Big 12. Maybe that will revive his
15:35
career. I hope for his sake it does.
15:38
But you know, in his two years, he's thrown fewer touchdown
15:41
passes than the guy he's replacing at Baylor threw last
15:45
year. So I mean, he's got to be
15:47
healthy. If he is, he's working with a
15:50
whole new group of skill players.
15:53
There's only one returning starter on that side of the
15:55
ball. So 1.
15:57
Can I trust Lagway right now? I can't.
16:00
The other person I can't trust is Dave Miranda.
16:03
And Tim, I was talking to you before we started.
16:05
This team smells a lot like 2025 Oklahoma State.
16:09
And and when I say that, I go back sadly to 2023 Oklahoma
16:13
State had a great year. 2024, they are riding high.
16:17
They had a terrible season in between.
16:19
After that season, there was talk of Gundy being fired.
16:22
They're trying to get him to rework his deal.
16:23
He wasn't having it. They worked out whatever they
16:26
worked out third game of the year.
16:27
He lost at home to Tulsa and he's gone.
16:30
So now I look at Aranda, who in 2021, I believe won this
16:34
conference, but in the last four years since then, he hasn't even
16:36
really like sniffed that level of success.
16:40
So I have I, I right now I, and isn't he supposed to be like a
16:43
kind of a defensive guy to start with?
16:46
I, I mean, their defense has not been good.
16:48
Now, granted, they're not bringing back a lot as far as
16:51
stars going that side of the ball.
16:52
So I look at that as positive because it probably can't get
16:55
much worse, but just keep an eye on how they start.
16:59
They got back-to-back. They play Colorado, who not a
17:03
lot is expected of and I believe they go to Arizona State and
17:06
then there's a bye week. All I'm saying if we're going to
17:10
see a coaching change and Baylor's not off to the start
17:12
that they want to be off to, we saw a lot of in season coaching
17:17
changes on that Sunday leading into a bye week.
17:20
So, you know, the Auburn game will be tough.
17:23
That's basically a road game, even though it's it's
17:25
technically neutral site. But I mean, is 3 and two before
17:31
that bot, is that good enough for Baylor?
17:33
I don't know. I owe for his sake.
17:35
It is. He seems like he's a nice guy,
17:37
but he's always on hot seat rankings.
17:38
Mark from coachsasi.com, ever since we found his work.
17:42
Yeah, Iran is always up there. So for me, it just comes to
17:45
those two guys right now. They've showed me nothing
17:47
recently that tells me I can trust them to hit this win
17:49
total. I didn't touch it, but I do have
17:52
a small lean to the under here and Pete tell me why.
17:58
Yeah. This is, this is an interesting
18:00
one, right? Because, yeah, there's just #1
18:03
Dave Aranda has not done much in the last four years.
18:06
That's been an issue with this team.
18:07
Now, this conference is difficult, as we just talked
18:10
about. There's, you know, it seems to
18:12
be a cycle. Every year it's another team
18:13
stepping up and everybody else seems to fall back.
18:15
So there is a little bit of that Big 12 thing going on, whatever
18:20
that is not letting him off the hook, but that that is certainly
18:24
in the backdrop here. DJ Lagway, right.
18:27
So no, I do not believe that the upside of this team is winning
18:31
this conference, right? I, I don't see the elite ceiling
18:34
with this team. I don't think that's going to
18:36
happen. You know, you know, the schedule
18:38
we'll talk about in a second, but I just don't see it now.
18:42
Could could I do I think that Lagway will make a difference in
18:45
this offense? I actually do, as you mentioned,
18:48
I like the analogy you said with, you know, kind of going
18:50
down in class. This is a step down in class.
18:53
It's taking a spotlight off a guy that in a place he was
18:56
before gets on a spotlight. It's a different situation.
19:01
You know, Baylor's a team that plays differently than Florida
19:04
does. This is just different.
19:06
So I kind of like that. That 6 1/2 is interesting to me,
19:10
right? So the the bet I'm making is on
19:12
the over and looking through this schedule right here, do I
19:15
see seven wins? I think I can see 1/2.
19:20
I I could see 4-5 pretty clearly.
19:23
So where do the other two come from?
19:26
Yeah, I mean, they're going to have to step up and do
19:27
something. They're not going to win a
19:28
BIPYU. So November 14th is out.
19:31
Texas Tech at home, Who knows? Maybe if they're hot, they could
19:34
do something. Who knows?
19:36
You know, UCF quite possibly. Prairie Review, sure.
19:41
Louisiana Tech, sure. Colorado, yes, Arizona State's
19:45
going to be tough. So I don't know.
19:46
I mean, I'm, it's a little bit of a flier to me.
19:49
I think they're going to be right around that 6-7 win mark.
19:53
I'm just, I'm just thinking that as the team starts to gel a
19:57
little bit because they do have a couple of early games that I
20:00
think they can win. Period.
20:02
As they start to gel a little bit later in the year, I do
20:04
think they could be dangerous if Lagway does what he could do.
20:08
So I'm really betting on I'm betting on Lagway stepping up,
20:11
being better in this situation and and finding that, you know,
20:15
7. So I am betting 1 unit on the
20:18
over here just because I think that will happen now I'll bet.
20:21
I think it's her or whatever, forget it, right?
20:23
So who knows, but at least from that perspective, I think he
20:26
will be refreshed being in a place with a spotlight off of
20:30
him and I think that will help. So that's that's my thoughts on
20:33
this team. OK, that's interesting.
20:37
But two arguments and or two at least disagreements in three
20:40
teams, that ain't bad for us. I don't think so, not.
20:44
Bad at all? Last year's darlings for me, we
20:49
got the BYU plus 7:50 to win the conference over under 8 1/2
20:52
wins. They one of my winning bets for
20:55
last year for the win total, not so much for the conference.
20:59
Peter, let's start with you. We're looking at BYU.
21:02
Yeah, this is also a bet here for me to win this conference.
21:07
I think BYU is going to be quite, quite good this year.
21:10
They have been quite good. So this is not coming out of
21:13
nowhere by any means. They're they're a good team.
21:16
I especially like their early schedule.
21:19
I think their early schedule, they can gain some momentum with
21:21
some of these teams because they should be winning, you know,
21:24
probably all four of those first games.
21:27
It would be my thought and starting to get some momentum
21:29
there. So I do think that will serve
21:31
them well. You know, I I don't see anything
21:35
that scares the hell out of me on the schedule, honestly.
21:38
So they go to Utah, That's always interesting, right.
21:41
Outside of that, they have Notre Dame, sure, but that's not
21:43
that's not a conference game. So don't really care.
21:47
But yeah, I mean, I think if you look at the schedule, you look
21:50
at the quality of this team, at the way this team has performed
21:53
for a number of years now. And I really and and really the
21:58
transfers and the newcomers coming in will add some, I
22:01
think, depth to this team. You know, I do think that this
22:04
is a really interesting opportunity to for them to win
22:08
this conference, right? So they have a high ceiling and
22:12
we're going to find out in this chaotic conference what they can
22:14
do. But I, I think their schedule
22:16
leans into them doing quite well and being in play, right?
22:20
They're, they're certainly going to be in play because I don't
22:22
see a lot of losses in the schedule.
22:24
So that's going to serve them well.
22:25
So from that perspective, I think their schedule leans in,
22:29
you know, the player continuity, the players that are there and
22:32
the the newcomers they brought in will will help them quite a
22:35
bit. So I do really think this team
22:38
will be quite good this year. So I do have a one unit bet on
22:42
them to win this conference. Those are my thoughts.
22:46
Darren. Darren.
22:48
Yeah, I'm going to keep it short.
22:50
I kind of got in depth about BYU month ago on the national
22:52
championship show. I have 1/2 unit on them to win
22:57
the whole damn thing at 125 to 1.
23:00
Tim, if you don't mind, put that schedule back up there.
23:04
I mean, I've been trying to find 3 losses on here.
23:07
For me was was difficult. They do struggle at TCU.
23:12
So I mean, maybe keep an eye on that one.
23:14
But I mean, outside of Notre Dame in Utah, I mean, what other
23:18
games could you look at and say, well, they, they have a less
23:20
than 50% chance of winning that game.
23:22
I I just don't see it. The quarterback is back.
23:25
The running back is back. More importantly, the head coach
23:27
is back. He said no thanks to Penn State.
23:29
I think that does something to those guys currently on that
23:32
team say, hey, you know what? He didn't ditch us for Penn
23:34
State. He's staying right here.
23:36
One of the few teams in this conference with a lot of
23:38
defensive starters coming back. I mean, I love this team.
23:43
I got 5 futures bats already. Two of them involved the the
23:45
fighting Mormon. So yeah, I I've got over 8 1/2
23:48
here, 1 unit. I did not do half unit one unit
23:52
over 8 1/2 one O 8, which is still available at FanDuel as
23:55
we're sitting here. So I, I just, yeah, I, I mean, I
24:00
love this team this year, man. I I think 8 1/2 is is more than
24:05
doable here. Yeah, yeah, we got to have #47
24:09
up there on the graphic. So there I went.
24:12
I went last year. Schedule.
24:13
No Houston, no Texas Tech. I'm not even super high on Utah.
24:18
I took a quick peek at them before and I.
24:21
Yeah, it's to be new next week. Yeah, definitely.
24:24
Like over there it. Wouldn't surprise as much as
24:27
this conference is messed up, it would not really surprise me if
24:30
we had the same conference title game as we had last year, yeah.
24:34
Right. We're going to move on to
24:37
Cincinnati. Here they are plus 7500 to win a
24:40
conference over under his five and a half wins.
24:44
Peter, let's start with you for the Bearcats.
24:47
Yeah, if you look at those numbers, I mean, to me, this,
24:49
this is a A-Team that's probably priced right at the moment.
24:52
I, I, I don't, I don't see a tremendous amount of upside off
24:56
of that. You know, I think you've got a,
24:57
you've got a young QB room here. You know, their schedule early
25:00
is, is, is relatively favorable for them.
25:03
So I think that's positive. But that their mid season
25:07
stretch is tough. If you look at that middle that
25:10
that's, that's pretty challenging for them.
25:13
So I, I don't know. I mean, for me, they'll be
25:15
competitive. You know, I just think they're
25:19
A-Team. They're a team that I think is
25:20
in danger if, if one of the young QBs don't step up, this is
25:23
a team that's in quickly in danger of falling to the bottom
25:26
half of this conference, right? That's, that's what concerns me
25:29
about them is I just don't see the upside.
25:32
I see them at best being serviceable, maybe dangerous in
25:36
the right situation, but I really, really don't think they
25:41
can play with the better teams in this conference.
25:44
So from a conference championship perspective, no.
25:46
And from the wins perspective, I think they're priced where they
25:49
should be. So to me it's a no bet.
25:51
So that's where I am on them. It's the opposite of Arizona
25:54
with the quarterback, their quarterback left.
25:56
Yeah. Yeah, some new transfer coming
25:58
in. Darren, what do you think about
25:59
Cincinnati? Yeah, not high on the Bearcats
26:03
either. I mean, the best guess is the
26:06
Georgia Southern kid French wins the job and again to use another
26:11
horse racing now he's stepping up in class to A to a powerful
26:14
conference. He's he's going to see some
26:15
stuff he hasn't seen before this schedule.
26:19
Also, I mean, you look in there, you got the road game against
26:22
Arizona and I am going to mention West Virginia in here
26:24
because I think they're going to be a a tough out for anybody.
26:27
You got what Houston's on there, BYU's on there.
26:31
You got to host Texas Tech in Utah and again, the defense
26:35
coordinator is brand new. He runs something that
26:37
Cincinnati does not normally run or had run in the past.
26:40
That's going to take some time. I I this was one of the last
26:45
bets I'd I'd crossed off, but I do have a lean here to the under
26:49
5 1/2 FanDuel. It's minus one O 8.
26:52
You're actually getting a decent price on that so.
26:55
I was. I was going to bet the under.
26:57
I wouldn't play myself. Mike, don't do it.
26:59
Don't do it. One bet, one bet.
27:01
Don't go crazy. But yeah, I was living the under
27:03
here nice analogy with the horse race and he's going from maiden
27:07
special weight to maybe a grade 3.
27:09
So yeah, that's a big, that's a big step up in class there for
27:12
the. Court but not call the big 12A
27:13
graded. OK, starter off an. 8080
27:18
thousand dollar allowance. Maybe at best.
27:22
At best. Well, I figured SEC Big 10
27:25
that's your Grade 1. I figured maybe, maybe the ACC,
27:29
maybe grade two or three, I don't know.
27:31
But, well, it's not Maiden, Maiden claiming 5000 at
27:37
Charlestown or something. Oh, come on.
27:41
Speaking of a huge 5000 claiming, here we go.
27:45
Yeah, Colorado plus 10,000 to win the conference over under 4
27:48
1/2 wins. I feel bad for Coach Prime.
27:51
I hope he turns it around. Not touching this one at all.
27:56
Darren, let's start with you with Coach Prime and the
27:58
Buffaloes. If you could find an alternate
28:01
win total of 3 1/2 and get some plus money on the under, I would
28:05
take that in a minute. The the finest 170 at FanDuel to
28:10
go under 4 1/2 is way too high and that tells you that a 3 1/2
28:15
might not be far off on the horizon.
28:18
I think this is Dion's last year.
28:20
I mean, his health is is a concern.
28:24
You know, all of his kids are gone.
28:27
He did great in the portal. He always does great in the
28:29
portal. But the problem is what they've
28:31
had 18 conference games in the last two years.
28:33
He's lost 16 of them. I think either way, whether he
28:38
gets let go or whether he quits at the end of the year, and I
28:40
think they'll probably let him leave on his own terms.
28:43
This team does not look good this year.
28:45
I mean, Julian Lewis could be something he got a little bit of
28:48
of playing time last year. But other than that, what I
28:52
mean, what does this team have? I mean, the defense is bad.
28:54
They don't have any starters coming back, so maybe that
28:57
helps. It can't get worse.
29:00
Right subtraction. So yeah, for for defense, I I
29:03
totally believe in that. But you've only got 1 returning
29:06
starter on the offensive line so Lewis could spend half season
29:09
running for his life. Who knows?
29:12
You know, new coordinators on both sides of the ball do not
29:15
like this team at all. Under 4 1/2 I don't want I don't
29:18
want to use lock, but damn, you can find 3 1/2 and and get an
29:22
alternate or get a get a nice plus number on that.
29:26
I would do that. This team, I'm predicting this
29:28
team last in the conference. It does not look promising.
29:32
All right. Peter, man, it's hard to argue
29:34
any of that. I mean, are we, are we kind of
29:37
determining here that Dion really can't coach very well?
29:40
I mean, if we come to that conclusion, because it's easy to
29:43
coach when you have a couple superstars in your team that are
29:46
both, you know, potential Heisman Trophy candidate, you
29:50
know, candidates when you don't have that and you have a normal
29:53
team and this team has been not good.
29:56
And and I agree, I think this team is going to be abysmally
29:59
bad this year. I mean, I, I don't I don't know
30:02
what they're doing with this. I don't like their roster.
30:05
Sorry, Tim. I don't like their coach as a
30:07
coach. He can.
30:08
Draft. He cannot coach.
30:11
I don't know what he's going to do here.
30:12
I don't know what's going to happen with the QB position.
30:15
That defence is garbage. Their schedule is brutal pretty
30:19
early. I mean, this is an interesting
30:22
team from the betting perspective week to week cause
30:25
could they beat somebody at some point?
30:28
Perhaps, right? If you can find the right slot
30:32
it, it might work right somewhere on the schedule.
30:34
But like a, a full season bet on them.
30:38
I, I, I don't, I think they're just going to be bad.
30:41
So I don't really know what the bet on.
30:42
So from that perspective, I, I'm, I'm out.
30:45
I, I just, I think Dion will be gone by the end of this year.
30:48
I think he'll take himself out or they'll have a discussion
30:51
with him to take him to health out.
30:52
But I think he's gonna be. Gone.
30:53
I think it's like health reasons and, you know, let him know.
30:56
Or incompetence, you know, But both, maybe.
30:58
Well, yeah, but you know, figure, I mean, he did have a
31:00
couple, you know, years there where he got everybody excited
31:03
and everything for whatever reason.
31:04
So and it. They retired his son's number so
31:07
well. It was his son.
31:08
It was his son and you know. What else is telling?
31:12
Did you hear some some of these guys that transferred out of
31:15
Colorado and went to other schools saying that like now,
31:20
like Jordan Seton, offensive lineman who went to LSU, he's
31:23
saying this is like a totally different atmosphere.
31:26
You know, we're we're getting coached, but you know, we're
31:28
actually accomplishing things in practice.
31:32
I mean, and he's not the only ex Buffalo to say that.
31:36
So I mean, I mean, if you're Dionne, you got all the money in
31:40
the world. Focus on yourself.
31:43
Just. Go do something else man, watch
31:45
your. I always wondered about their
31:46
coaching staff, 'cause I think if Warren Sapp is coaching the
31:49
line, Marshall Faulk coaching the running backs, and you just
31:52
wonder, maybe they were just too good.
31:53
It's like, you know, say why can't you just bowl over these
31:56
people say, well, we're not you Coach SAP.
31:59
You know, why can't you just run over, run around everybody and
32:02
do three 60s and everything? Well, we're not you, Coach
32:04
Faulk. That's why we can't do this.
32:06
And maybe they're they're really great players.
32:08
Sometimes don't make the best coaches.
32:10
It's always, you know, yeah, a great it's always the backup,
32:13
the backup quarterback and stuff like that that makes the the
32:15
good coaches. But we'll see what happens And,
32:17
you know, hopefully, you know, Butcham gets better and you can
32:21
concentrate on his health there. Let's move over to Houston +1750
32:25
to win the conference over under 7 1/2 wins and oh crap, Darren,
32:31
we'll start with you. I just deleted my notes, so
32:33
we'll start with you, Darren. Yeah, this is this is
32:35
everybody's hot trendy pick to be in the conference title game.
32:41
So naturally I want to try and find a reason to to go against
32:45
that. There's not many reasons to go
32:49
against that. I mean, I don't have a bet here.
32:52
I do like the over 7 1/2, but at -150 that's a little too much
32:57
juice for me to lay here. Anytime you got the quarterback
33:00
coming back, in this case Connor Wegman, that's a good thing.
33:03
The one interesting pick up, Makai Hughes, the running back
33:06
from Oregon, who did not do barely anything with the Ducks
33:10
last year. But remember, he played for
33:12
Tulane with Willie Fritz a couple years ago and he was
33:15
incredibly productive. So now he's back with Willie
33:17
Fritz here at Houston. So I expect offensively this
33:21
team to click right out of the gate.
33:24
The only concerns on defense their their guy who led the team
33:27
with 7 sacks is gone. Their top 2 tacklers are gone,
33:30
but they did OK in the portal. You know they've still got 6
33:32
returning starters on defense. I I don't see too many holes
33:37
with this team. Man, if if I can get a little
33:39
bit better number than -150 on that over, I would probably I
33:45
don't feel comfortable enough going alternate 8 1/2 here
33:47
because they do have Rd. games at Texas Tech and Utah and
33:51
there's a couple other tricky Rd. game there, Kansas State and
33:54
and our darling West Virginia. So yeah, that those two games
34:00
could be tricky there. But I I almost had them to to
34:04
win the conference, but I had like 7 leans after breaking down
34:09
these eight teams. I had to kind of I didn't want
34:11
to be Tim and have like 11 half a conference in.
34:16
I did not need, you know, double digit futures bets already, but
34:21
I do like Houston here with that with that over the win total,
34:25
but I I held off no bet for me. Peter.
34:32
Yeah, Darren, you said, you said a lot of it already.
34:34
I mean, this is a, this is a good team.
34:36
There's continuity here. So I do like that.
34:40
I, I, it's clear why people are picking them as a team that
34:43
could do something. Absolutely.
34:45
I mean, the Big 12 is well, a mess anyway, or just interesting
34:49
or whatever you want to call it, whatever verb you want to use.
34:52
But if it turns into chaos, this is a team that really could take
34:55
advantage of that, right? This is a team that's good
34:58
enough, could be in position to take advantage of that has the
35:01
right coaching staff to do it. I mean, this is a team that
35:03
could make noise and do something and end up right in
35:07
the conference championship game.
35:08
I would not be surprised here if they did.
35:10
So certainly possible. I think the the other schedule
35:12
here, Tim, I think this early schedule a little bit little bit
35:17
challenging going to Texas Tech at least a little bit there.
35:20
But I mean, really, if you look at this for the over as Darren
35:24
was talking about, I mean, there's there's I could pick up
35:26
quite a few wins here. I mean, going to West Virginia
35:29
could be challenging, especially later in the year.
35:31
We would expect that team to keep getting better, you know,
35:35
Orient sedate, you know, but but you know, southern Georgia
35:38
Southern too, UCF and there's some, there is definitely some
35:43
opportunity for them to hit that over here and for sure to to to
35:48
to make a run at the conference if it turns into chaos, which it
35:52
could, right. And that's what's going to be
35:54
interesting about the Big 12 overall, right?
35:56
There's one clear favorite, which we're talking about next
35:59
week. Well, next, next show.
36:02
But outside of that, there's a bunch of teams that are just
36:05
like right there that could do something.
36:08
This is one of those teams, right?
36:10
That's how I'd view them. So I think if it's interesting,
36:12
they could certainly do something.
36:13
So we'll have to see how the first few weeks play out in this
36:15
conference. But this is a quality team.
36:18
So, but I do not have a bet here.
36:19
So those are my thoughts. And we see the other money kick
36:22
in. I just want to say one other
36:25
thing and one of the reasons I did not go with a conference bet
36:27
here. You look at that schedule, you
36:29
see those, those Rd. games, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Utah
36:34
losses there that that could affect the tiebreaker scenario.
36:37
If you go to head to head and Houston has lost a couple of
36:41
those. You know, if they're, you know,
36:43
if they're sitting seven and two in the conference with one of
36:46
those other teams and one of their two losses is to any of
36:48
those teams who also might happen to be 7 and two, you
36:52
know, they they could be out, you know, because of a tie
36:54
breaker. I'd feel better if they had, you
36:56
know, one of those teams like at home.
36:58
It seems like all the good teams on their schedule, they have to
37:01
go there. So that, that, that kind of
37:03
dissuaded me a little bit, but. Yeah, that, that could be a
37:10
factor for sure. I mean, this, this whole, this
37:14
whole conference, it's like we said, it's, it's nuts.
37:18
They could win all three of those and I could have no idea.
37:23
They're capable of doing that. They are.
37:25
They really are. And finally, for this show, we
37:30
got Iowa State plus 7500 to win the conference over under 5 1/2
37:34
wins. I was leaning heavily under for
37:37
the win total this year. I mean, quarterback's gone,
37:40
coach left for Penn State. I believe 2 most important
37:44
things you can have. And they're they're doing a
37:47
total revamp there heavily on a transfer portal.
37:50
We started with Darren, I believe last time.
37:52
So, Pete, let's start with you with Iowa State.
37:55
Yeah, this is a team. I mean, yeah.
37:56
So clearly some of the major things like head coach turnover,
38:02
you know, UV and all that are not right.
38:05
It would suggest as a team that's going to have some
38:08
growing pains and struggle and evolve and all that stuff going
38:12
on for sure. So I think trying even this team
38:15
is not a conference winner. Bet no over 5 1/2.
38:22
It depends. I mean, I think it depends.
38:25
I wouldn't bet it right now because I think it's a bit of a
38:27
challenge. I don't know where that's going
38:28
at this point, but you know, could, you know, could they
38:32
become dangerous game by game later in the year, potentially,
38:38
potentially they could. But you know, for what we're
38:40
doing here, right, this is a, this is not a, you know, weekly
38:43
let's bet them. So who knows I could end up
38:45
betting them in you know, week 9 or something.
38:46
But at the moment, you know, for, for the conference, for
38:49
total wins. I, I don't I don't know, there's
38:52
too many unknowns here with them.
38:54
I really don't know what to expect New head coach.
38:56
It's hard to get a grip on what's going to happen there.
39:00
So yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't know.
39:01
I said no bet for me. I just don't think they're going
39:03
to be all that good. So that's my thoughts.
39:06
Darren. Yeah, I, I feel bad for for the
39:10
fan bases that, yeah, when they have a coach leave for whatever
39:14
the reason is and like half the coaching staff, half the team,
39:19
they all bolt at the same time and usually end up at the same
39:21
school. Like Marshall a couple years ago
39:23
when they got rid of Charles Hough, everybody went to
39:27
Southern Miss and they couldn't even play in their bowl game.
39:29
I'm like, you know, I felt bad for the for the fans of the
39:32
Thundering Herd. I kind of feel the same here for
39:36
for Iowa State. I mean, this is a team that, you
39:38
know, doesn't really spend the money on the football program.
39:43
They're not very active in the transfer portal.
39:47
So shout out to to Matt Campbell for getting all those wins when
39:51
he did there. And again, it's probably part of
39:53
the reason I'm kind of high on Penn State because, you know, he
39:55
is a really good coach. That being said, I do like the
39:59
Jimmy Rogers higher. Washington State was a pretty
40:02
good football team. I love that he brought his
40:04
defense coordinator with him. You know, a lot of people
40:06
probably don't know this because their kickoffs are, you know,
40:09
10:30 Eastern. They had a pretty solid defense
40:12
there last year, so it also brought a handful of defensive
40:16
players with him. So I like what they could look
40:18
like defensively. I'm not against getting Jalen
40:22
Rayner from Arkansas State to be the quarterback.
40:25
So I mean, there's there is some promise there.
40:28
He's got to cut down on the picks though.
40:30
He had double digit picks last year.
40:32
I got a feeling he's going to be doing a lot of throwing in some
40:35
of these games. But you know this team.
40:37
Let's see. Last lowest returning production
40:41
in the Big 12. Only three Power Four teams
40:43
actually have less than them. Second to last ranked portal
40:47
class in the Big 12. No returning starters on either
40:50
side of the ball and a win total of 5 1/2.
40:53
So you're telling me this completely revamped team is
40:56
going to make a bowl game? That's a huge ask, regardless of
41:02
who your coach is. I just don't think the personnel
41:05
is there. You know, you got that non
41:07
conference game, you go to Iowa, that's probably not going to go
41:10
well. And then you got Utah, West
41:13
Virginia, you go to BYU, you go to Arizona, you got Oklahoma
41:16
State and their offense should improve by leaps and bounds.
41:19
Rd. game at Baylor at, I mean then at Kansas State.
41:23
This is just kind of a tough schedule for a team that is
41:27
basically rebuilding. Next year I will probably be all
41:31
over this team because I like some of the pieces that they've
41:34
brought in. But considering everything
41:36
they've lost, how little they got back, you know, and the
41:40
quality of what they got back in the portal.
41:44
I mean, if this team makes a bowl game, dude, Jimmy Rogers
41:46
should be considered coach of the year.
41:48
It's just it's just a lot to overcome, especially in a
41:52
powerful conference. So unfortunately, I am kind of
41:56
down on them this year. I think 2027 is more likely
42:00
going to be there a year to do something, but that schedule's
42:05
tough. I mean, those conference games
42:06
are teams that are either improving or are already halfway
42:10
decent. But there's just so many holes
42:13
that that needed to be filled here.
42:14
And, you know, it just comes down to can this team make a
42:18
bowl game? Because that's what that's what
42:20
you're betting on if you're if you're doing anything with this
42:22
wind total. I just don't see it,
42:24
unfortunately. So yeah, I I do have one unit on
42:29
the under 5 1/2 -115 and MGM is the best number.
42:33
It's like -134 at FanDuel. So if you've got MGM, go there
42:38
for a little bit less juice. But yeah, probably all over this
42:42
team. Next year I am going to watch
42:44
that Iowa State, Iowa game because Iowa is one of the three
42:46
teams that actually has lower returning production than I.
42:52
For whatever reason, Iowa always seems to come up with a defense
42:56
no matter what. So.
42:58
Pre answer for that game. Yeah, it's, it's, it's just too
43:03
much to overcome basically. So I'm rolling with the under
43:06
here. All right, let's wrap this up.
43:11
We're getting done here. Let's do a recap.
43:13
Our bets. I have a 2 unit bet on Arizona
43:17
over 7 1/2 wins. Pete, what you got?
43:20
I've got Baylor over 6 1/2 wins one unit and I've got the raging
43:24
Mormons BYU to win the conference with one unit as
43:27
well. And to continue mine and Pete's
43:31
run on the three letter colleges, you know, we're both
43:34
on LSU winning the national championship.
43:37
I'm also on BYU here except I'm going over that 8 1/2 win total
43:41
and Iowa State I'm going under air win total.
43:44
If not so does that mean ACCFSU? Yeah, No, probably not.
43:54
This wasn't that strong. I don't think so.
43:59
You got to get the good weed down there in Mexico.
44:00
So all right guys, everyone, thank you for listening.
44:05
Please help us out like and subscribe on YouTube and on
44:08
Spotify. We'll be back with the other
44:10
half of this conference for our next show.
44:13
Until then, thank you all for listening.
44:15
We'll see you next time.