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Instant Reaction: US Job Growth Falls Short, Sets Up Fed Pivot · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: This is breaking new loose from Bloomberg. Last month was
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: one hundred and fourteen thousand. It is revised under one
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand, eighty nine thousand positive eighty nine thousand, So
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I've got one hundred and forty two thousand is the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: jobs report and the two month revision is eighty six.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: So Paul, do the math with me. Six takeaway one
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: who is thirteen eight is fifty one thousand, yep, I
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: think fifty six thousand, excuse me, fifty six thousand positive
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: is the summation with the revision. We job on along here, folks,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: to give Neil Dutta time to look at these statistics.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: Neil, what does this signal for Chairman Powell?
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: Get going? That's what it says, go fifty with a
• 0:50
  Speaker 3: promise to do as much as necessary to stabilize labor
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: market conditions.
• 0:55
  Speaker 4: So again, Neil, I mean, and you think about these
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: numbers and the revisions as to almost just summarizing here
• 1:03
  Speaker 4: the labor market, I guess it kind of falls into
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: what we were just saying many minutes ago, not nearly
• 1:08
  Speaker 4: as strong as people think it is.
• 1:11
  Speaker 5: No, I mean, the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 3: Three month trend on non farm private pails is running
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: below one hundred thousand. I mean, that's not a good number.
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: You know, that's barely break even, and I think it's
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: arguably actually worse than that because one of the reasons
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: why the number even looked as good as it did
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: is because we saw an uptake in construction employment among
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: I think civil engineer contractors. And so that's not going
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: to last because everything we know about construction right now
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: is that units under construction are under constructure collapsing. So
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: why are we hiring all these people to build one
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: exactly that That implies a margin squeeze for builders, which
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: I don't think they can tolerate right now. So I
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: think it's the goods producing side. I mean Tom mentioned benfacturing.
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: I think that's notable because a lot of people were
• 2:03
  Speaker 3: thinking maybe you'd see some uptaking manufacturing because of the
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: unwind of the retooling.
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: It just didn't happen.
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Right on the good side of the economy's week, cyclically
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: sensitive industries are sluggish, and you know, this is all
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: about the FED trying to create a handoff from income
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: lead growth to credit led growth. That's what this is about.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: So they need to keep cutting until the credits active
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: area of the economy turn.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Joining us worldwide.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Neil dotta, we are commercial free to the nine o'clock hour.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Claudia sam Mark Zandi will join in a moment. Ben
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: Ladler will join us on the equity market reaction in
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: the view forward here Later in these twenty minutes, futures
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: at negative seventeen, the vixers A twenty two level comes
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: in nicely twenty point seven six. Major bond market adjustments
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: make it eight basis points. Two year yield three point
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: sixty six thirty year bond well under four percent, three
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: point nine eight percent, ten year yield three points sixty
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: seven percent. Neil, I want you to frame out for
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: us what inflation will do given a depressed GDP in
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: the job market, moving the second derivative here is moving
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: to a worser space. What does inflation then do further disinflation.
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: I mean absolently, I think so. I mean if you
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: look at core goods, not housing services, and housing rents,
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: I mean those are those are the three ways to
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: slice the inflation data. The entire shortfall relative to the
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: FEDS target is in housing rents, which we know will
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: continue to normalize given the lagged You know sort of
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: nature of that indicator relative to market based rents. Everything
• 3:44
  Speaker 3: else is basically normalized. So you know again, I mean,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: what's the upside risk for inflation if growth is running
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: below potential and the momentum under the unemployment rate is higher.
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: I mean that's kind of it's kind of I mean,
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: unit labor costs are running basically flat for the last year,
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: so there's no more of an inflationary impulse coming out
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: of the job market. That story is completely over, and
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: the FED continues to run a very very restricted policy stance.
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: Well, Paul, get one more in here, and Neil, and
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: you know, the unemployment rate, just for those that are
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: gonna be watching the headlines, stay steady at four point
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: two percent here, right in line with expectations. What does
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: the FED think about an unemployment rate of four point
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: two percent? Do you think?
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: I don't think they should think about an unemployment rate
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: of four point two percent. I think they should think
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: about what's gone on over the last six months.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: Here you going, what's gone out?
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: That's absolutely Neildudda, I know you got a publish, will
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: feature that out on Twitter.
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: Neil Dudda with Ron Mack will publish.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: We thank him for careful market economic analysis. So now
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: bring you Claudia S'm chief economists New Century Advisors, and
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: doctor Mark Zandi, chief economists at Moody's. We had them
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: on here, oh thirty or sixty days ago, can't remember.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: It was just lights out, great, great analysis, Claudia. I
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: want to get this out of the way so we
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: can move on to the real Claudia, Sam, I'm sick
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: of the palm recession. Pinata, Can you just give us
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: an update without tire and feathering your reputation? Are we
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: close to a recession? Doctor somem?
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: So they increase the unemployment rate is in a range
• 5:21
  Speaker 5: where we have historically been in recessions, right, But that's
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: a history, that's a past.
• 5:25
  Speaker 6: We're not in a recession right now.
• 5:27
  Speaker 5: But we do have a weakening labor market, right, So
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: that's the important takeaway.
• 5:31
  Speaker 6: But like, not a recession right now, but a risk
• 5:33
  Speaker 6: as risk.
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: And what I remember from two thousand and eight is
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: a Zandy rule.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: There's a Psam rule, but there's also the Zandy rule,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: which is to be optimistic about America, Mark Zandy, if
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: we get the deck of cards, I hear from Neil
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: and others in you frankly at Moodies as well. Can
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: corporations adjust and sustain off of a lower nominal GDP
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: decent revenue and decent earnings or do you just suggest
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: everything goes.
• 6:01
  Speaker 7: Down, Tom, I think they're doing just fine. I mean,
• 6:06
  Speaker 7: looking at corporate earnings, they feel pretty good. I mean,
• 6:09
  Speaker 7: through Q two of twenty twenty four, double digit ear
• 6:13
  Speaker 7: or ear growth, and you know, expectations of analysts always
• 6:16
  Speaker 7: are on the high side, but they're still pretty good
• 6:18
  Speaker 7: as well. So I think the economy is doing fine
• 6:22
  Speaker 7: and producing enough enough revenue growth to keep profitability going strong.
• 6:27
  Speaker 7: So yeah, I'm not worried about that. And you know,
• 6:30
  Speaker 7: just broadly, yeh, you know, I'm all on board with
• 6:34
  Speaker 7: the view that the BET should be cutting rates and
• 6:37
  Speaker 7: normalizing them very quickly. But today's report I thought pretty
• 6:41
  Speaker 7: much down the strike zone. I mean, you know, the
• 6:43
  Speaker 7: kind of right underlying job growth is one hundred and
• 6:46
  Speaker 7: one hundred and fifty k that's kind of where you
• 6:48
  Speaker 7: want it. Four point two percent unemployment, that's kind of
• 6:51
  Speaker 7: where you want it. You saw a tick up an
• 6:53
  Speaker 7: hour's work per week, that's, you know, feels pretty good.
• 6:56
  Speaker 7: Wage growth is almost exactly where you want it. I mean, yeah,
• 7:00
  Speaker 7: you can just put hairs. Come on, what are we
• 7:03
  Speaker 7: going to say this? This is a good report, this
• 7:05
  Speaker 7: was this felt like a really good report to me.
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: Is it to the point there marked where the FED
• 7:10
  Speaker 4: can stay at twenty five basis points or is this
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: something that some are suggesting may push them to a
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: fifty basis point cut in September.
• 7:17
  Speaker 7: Yeah, I think it's twenty five. I mean, I would
• 7:21
  Speaker 7: expect the FED to cut fifty only in emergency if
• 7:24
  Speaker 7: you know, markets are really evaporating or there really was
• 7:27
  Speaker 7: some serious deterioration in the economy, job market. But I
• 7:31
  Speaker 7: don't see any of that. So I think it's a
• 7:33
  Speaker 7: core point, and there's you know, I think there's good
• 7:36
  Speaker 7: arguments to cut and cut in a consistent way, but
• 7:40
  Speaker 7: I don't think we need to dramatically cut all at once,
• 7:44
  Speaker 7: because there's a lot of uncertainty as to reasonable uncertainty
• 7:47
  Speaker 7: as to you know, where the FED should be going here.
• 7:50
  Speaker 7: What is the so called equilibrium federal funds rate? What's
• 7:53
  Speaker 7: the rate where policies either supporting or restraining growth? That
• 7:56
  Speaker 7: is very uncertain, And I think given that, I go
• 8:00
  Speaker 7: obiously unless push to do otherwise, And in this report.
• 8:03
  Speaker 7: I don't see any reason to feel like they have
• 8:07
  Speaker 7: to move very quickly.
• 8:08
  Speaker 6: Here, Claudia.
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: Over the weekend, you'll be at some fancy cocktail party
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: and somebody's can come up to you and say, hey, Claudia,
• 8:13
  Speaker 4: how's the US labor market. What's your response?
• 8:18
  Speaker 6: It's not headed in the right direction. This is the
• 8:22
  Speaker 6: thing I am most concerned about. Again.
• 8:24
  Speaker 5: Just you know the numbers, like the numbers themselves. Okay, fine,
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: It's just things have been slowing and we can and
• 8:31
  Speaker 5: not because I am you know, hair on fire, that
• 8:34
  Speaker 5: are recessions around the corner. I'm really concerned that we're
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: losing a slipping away of a.
• 8:40
  Speaker 6: Really good labor market.
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: And we need this as good as it gets and
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: there should be nothing weaker than what it takes the
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: get inflation down. And we are like the train is
• 8:50
  Speaker 5: still moving and is not in the right direction.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: I mean to both of you, and then, folks, we've
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: got huge academic caliber here. Mark, I'm going to go
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: to you first, and then Claudia. Is the same question
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: the ECB is trying to teach us about being non measured.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Are we slaves? Mark Sandy to a green spanny and
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: measured approach, careful, careful, careful. Why can't we go X
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: beeps or why beeps or Z beeps and see what happens?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Why can't we do that?
• 9:18
  Speaker 7: Mark Sandy, Well, I don't know Tom that you need to.
• 9:23
  Speaker 7: I mean, if the you know, the labor market was
• 9:25
  Speaker 7: falling apart, yeah, absolutely, If you know financial system was
• 9:28
  Speaker 7: in turmoil, yeah, i'd move quit more quickly. But you know,
• 9:34
  Speaker 7: the economies, it's throttling back. But that's exactly what you'd
• 9:38
  Speaker 7: want to see, to throttle back it, for it to
• 9:41
  Speaker 7: throttle back here it's been growing too strongly and it's
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: kind of coming right into where you want it, and
• 9:48
  Speaker 7: no reason to to move quickly otherwise. And again I
• 9:52
  Speaker 7: keep going back to I don't think anyone knows reasonably
• 9:56
  Speaker 7: so where we're headed here. You know, it feels like
• 9:59
  Speaker 7: I feel like the equilibrium rate is higher than it
• 10:02
  Speaker 7: has been typically. Uh, and it's moving, so you know,
• 10:06
  Speaker 7: why not go cautiously and you know, if things start
• 10:09
  Speaker 7: to really deteriorate, if you know, we do start to
• 10:12
  Speaker 7: see really significant job loss or or even very weak
• 10:16
  Speaker 7: job growth. Hey, one other quick point I wanted to make, please,
• 10:21
  Speaker 7: you know the August data is always weak. You know,
• 10:24
  Speaker 7: we get very low response rates, initial response rates in
• 10:27
  Speaker 7: the month of August, I think for obvious reasons, people
• 10:29
  Speaker 7: are on vacation, and we always get an initial print
• 10:32
  Speaker 7: that's on the sauce side. And almost invariably, if you
• 10:36
  Speaker 7: cast me back a year from now, we're going to
• 10:38
  Speaker 7: be talking about upward efficients to the data. So you know,
• 10:42
  Speaker 7: you just have to take that into consideration.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: Claudia, I got a scree month moving average of one
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: hundred and sixteen thousand, three hundred and thirty three one
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: one six three three three. I'm sorry, but that's way
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: below anything I've seen as a normal rate of unemployment
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: if you take the screen month moving average Jason Firm
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: and I'll help out on this at Harvard. I'm sorry, Claudia,
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: is measured in place or is this a fed that's
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: got to go and hoc forward?
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: Well, I think again, it's like looking at how the
• 11:12
  Speaker 5: variables are changing. The unemployment rate has been rising. Yes,
• 11:15
  Speaker 5: it is still relatively low historically.
• 11:17
  Speaker 6: We also have an older workforce.
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: Four point three percent is not that far from and
• 11:22
  Speaker 5: experienced and esteemed right, and so there's no magic number
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: with the unemployment rate. It's watching the dynamics. It's watching
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: the change and knowing that once that changes in place.
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: The FED has been trying for two years to cool
• 11:38
  Speaker 5: off the labor market. That's why the funds rate is
• 11:41
  Speaker 5: at five percent and other types of demand. Right, so, yes,
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: things are cooling off, and now it's like, okay, now
• 11:47
  Speaker 5: we need to slow.
• 11:48
  Speaker 6: We need to turn that around. We don't need that slowing.
• 11:52
  Speaker 6: So I think that changes everything.
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: Wonderful, Zamon Sandy with us right now. They move the
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: market higher.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Futures negative thirty now negative twelve, deterior in the Sweeney
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: yield two year yield from negative seven basis points down
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: to negative nine. Those levels three sixty five, two year,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: three sixty eight, ten year, thirty.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: Year bond hut or four percent. Paul you home shopping
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: this weekend.
• 12:12
  Speaker 4: I might be absolutely red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal.
• 12:16
  Speaker 4: Traders pricing fifty percent chance of half point FED cut
• 12:20
  Speaker 4: this month, crossing the Bloomberg terminal, Mark Sandy. Given the
• 12:24
  Speaker 4: labor outlook here in some of the data we got today,
• 12:27
  Speaker 4: as it relates to total payrolls and wages, what's your
• 12:30
  Speaker 4: view of the US consumer here? How healthy or how
• 12:34
  Speaker 4: at risk is the US consumer, I.
• 12:37
  Speaker 7: Think and aggregate, you know, looking across all Americans, they're
• 12:40
  Speaker 7: continue to do their part. They're hanging tough. I mean,
• 12:43
  Speaker 7: the train is being driven by folks in the top
• 12:45
  Speaker 7: part of the income distribution. And you know, I don't know,
• 12:47
  Speaker 7: I don't think it's hyperperctly, but their financial situation is
• 12:50
  Speaker 7: probably as good as it's ever been. You know, got
• 12:52
  Speaker 7: a job, strong, real wage gains, They own stocks, stocks
• 12:56
  Speaker 7: or near record high zone home home vows or near
• 12:59
  Speaker 7: record highs. If they've got any debt at all, it's
• 13:01
  Speaker 7: a thirty or fifteen year or fixed rate mortgage locked
• 13:04
  Speaker 7: in And seems like everyone I talked to us mortgage
• 13:06
  Speaker 7: is at two and a half or three percent kind
• 13:08
  Speaker 7: of locked in. So I again, and in my by
• 13:11
  Speaker 7: my calculation, they still have some excess cash that they
• 13:14
  Speaker 7: build up during the pandemic when they couldn't spend that
• 13:17
  Speaker 7: they're spending down now. So I think they're fine. I
• 13:21
  Speaker 7: do think the soft spot obviously is lower income households.
• 13:24
  Speaker 7: They clearly are struggling. You know, they got nailed by
• 13:28
  Speaker 7: the high inflation. They took on a lot of debt
• 13:30
  Speaker 7: to supplement their income, to maintain their purchasing power. And
• 13:34
  Speaker 7: it's one thing when rates are low, but when rates
• 13:35
  Speaker 7: are really high. They mean, the credit card rate is
• 13:38
  Speaker 7: twenty two percent, a record high. That's very painful. They
• 13:41
  Speaker 7: don't own stocks, they don't own a home. They rent, so,
• 13:45
  Speaker 7: you know, very different kind of perspectives. But you know,
• 13:47
  Speaker 7: at the end of the day, it's the folks in
• 13:49
  Speaker 7: the top middle parts of the distribution that here we
• 13:51
  Speaker 7: are critical here.
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: I mean, I mean, I can't keep up.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I tried to get John Williams on the show, Claudius,
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Mark Sandy, John.
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: Williams, that would have been good.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: New York Fed President John Williams says, now appropriate to
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: lower FED funds rate, Claudia, when you were studying this
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: in Michigan, this this this ex post lag Is this
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: unusual the way our FED is acting.
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: Yes, particularly in the way monetary policy is quote unquote
• 14:22
  Speaker 5: supposed to be done like in the theories, right, but
• 14:25
  Speaker 5: that's a very clean, not realistic state. I understand why
• 14:29
  Speaker 5: the FED when tools start breaking down and data don't
• 14:33
  Speaker 5: make as much sense, then you kind of you, you know,
• 14:36
  Speaker 5: crawl your way along and you want evidence. I think
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: this FED did lean into a very FED like tendency
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: of being super super cautious, and they have been kind
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: of greedy in terms of how much data they wanted
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: on inflation. And if I had to hear so many times.
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: We have the luxury of time because the labor market
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: is so strong, it's like, well, well guess what it
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: actually wasn't as strong, and so there's a cost. Like
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: they took time to get comfortable with inflation, but that
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: probably means they do not have time to get right.
• 15:06
  Speaker 6: Is the lever market really weakening?
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: Like they may need to recalibrate some and get going
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: I think would be the appropriate But.
• 15:12
  Speaker 6: This, this is really outside of their playbook. So I
• 15:14
  Speaker 6: understand why this is a hard case to make.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: Doctor Xandy, your opiniata for the Gloom Crew, I mean
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: seven eight oh nine, you said, everybody shut up, We're
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: going to fix this Zandy pandemic. Everybody shut up, We're
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: going to fix this. Give us an optimistic touch here
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: on how America will clear these traumas post pandemic, Shinas
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: slowing down, Claudia Sam's cats are miserable. Mark Zandy, just
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: as directly as you can give us.
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: I need some.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Xandy optimism now, or I can't get through the weekend.
• 15:49
  Speaker 7: Really, I've got that reputation. I didn't know that I'm
• 15:51
  Speaker 7: that optimistic. Well look, uh just look at the numbers.
• 15:56
  Speaker 7: I mean, top four point two percent on employment. I mean, okay,
• 16:00
  Speaker 7: be nicer if it were four I'm I'm on board
• 16:03
  Speaker 7: with that. I mean, it's maybe on the soft side
• 16:05
  Speaker 7: of one point four point two percent unemployment. We're creating
• 16:09
  Speaker 7: a lot of jobs across lots of different industries and
• 16:11
  Speaker 7: have been for you know, quite some time. Inflation that's
• 16:16
  Speaker 7: back in the bottle almost no matter how you measure it.
• 16:20
  Speaker 7: So you know, we're growing at a potential. And by
• 16:23
  Speaker 7: the way, here's the thing that's really you know, makes
• 16:26
  Speaker 7: me encouraged. The economy's potential is very strong. I mean,
• 16:30
  Speaker 7: we're seeing a lot of labor force growth. Well that's
• 16:32
  Speaker 7: one of the that's the key reason why unemployment is
• 16:34
  Speaker 7: not tired here over the past year. That goes to immigration,
• 16:38
  Speaker 7: and you know there's a lot of costs there, but
• 16:39
  Speaker 7: the benefit obviously is the strong liver force growth. And
• 16:42
  Speaker 7: look at those productivity growth numbers, and you know, I
• 16:45
  Speaker 7: mean it's hard to argue that whether it's sustainable or not,
• 16:49
  Speaker 7: but it feels like there's a lot of good things
• 16:50
  Speaker 7: happening underneath all the business formation we beginning since the
• 16:53
  Speaker 7: pandemic hit. It's probably reaping benefit. And this is all
• 16:56
  Speaker 7: before AI kind of kicks in. So you add of
• 16:58
  Speaker 7: all the productivity gains, yeah, in the labor force growth,
• 17:01
  Speaker 7: and that's a strong growing economy and the FED. The
• 17:05
  Speaker 7: trick for the FED here is, you know, let the
• 17:08
  Speaker 7: take the foot off the brakes sufficiently to allow the
• 17:10
  Speaker 7: economy to grow at its higher potential. That's a very
• 17:13
  Speaker 7: different issue or problem. Demand we're evaporating. That's not what's
• 17:16
  Speaker 7: going on here. So you know, objectively, take a step
• 17:20
  Speaker 7: back and take a look around. This economy is good.
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: Paul, one quick question to Claudia sim because futures just
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: went green, which is a signal. Go Ben Ladler, so
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: quickly here Paul, go to Claudia. And then we got
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: to drag Ben Laidler in here.
• 17:34
  Speaker 4: Claudia, Sam, I mean again, how do you just when
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: you sit back, you've had a few minutes of the
• 17:37
  Speaker 4: digestis how's it fed? How do you think they're going
• 17:40
  Speaker 4: to digest these numbers today?
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: I think the payroll numbers are going to be the
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: concern and frankly, the piece of it that I found
• 17:48
  Speaker 5: most is concerning you are the July revision, the earlier revisions, right,
• 17:53
  Speaker 5: that's the hiring rate has gotten too low of a place,
• 17:57
  Speaker 5: and we're seeing it in the job gains.
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: And then to it.
• 18:01
  Speaker 5: You know, July was actually even a little worse than
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: we thought on the jobs number, and so that I
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: think that takes some pause.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: She said, So I'm supposed to have dinner with Claudia
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: and Jackson Hole. You know what they served.
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Elk and the health's food was venison. I mean there's
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: no fish or nothing, Claudia, some we got to go.
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Thank you so much, Claudia, Sam just nailing these revisions.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: I want to want to mention Anna Wong as well
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: at Bloomberg and Mark Zandy, thank you so much for
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: being where us really appreciate from Moody's his optimism on
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: the American economic experiment. He is the bull strategist who
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: has nailed the trip from twenty eighteen.
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: From Christmas Eve of twenty eighteen.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Ben Laidler joins us. Right now in this market, Ben Ladler,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: are you going to cash?
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: No, I'm just busted.
• 18:54
  Speaker 8: My shops just killed my keyboard head. No, I think
• 19:00
  Speaker 8: this is a I think we're at the early innings
• 19:02
  Speaker 8: of the bull market. I think the FED cut, which
• 19:04
  Speaker 8: is just around the corner and which we're all sort
• 19:07
  Speaker 8: of naval gazing over, I think is the trigger for
• 19:09
  Speaker 8: this bull market to broaden, both by sector and by
• 19:13
  Speaker 8: and by geography. I think the data today probably a
• 19:16
  Speaker 8: little bit weaker than you know, bulls like I would
• 19:18
  Speaker 8: have liked, and it's probably a recipe for a little
• 19:20
  Speaker 8: bit more uncertainty. But bottom line, I don't think it
• 19:23
  Speaker 8: really changes the trajectory. I mean, this is an economy
• 19:26
  Speaker 8: that is slowing. We want it to slow to pull
• 19:29
  Speaker 8: forward those rate cuts. FED has a lot of room
• 19:32
  Speaker 8: to uh to cut here. I think that will stabilize
• 19:35
  Speaker 8: the US economy, and I think that would be very,
• 19:37
  Speaker 8: very bullish for the rest of the world.
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: He's from the United Kingdom.
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: We should properly introduce some Ben Ladler Bridesco PBI with
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: us right now, Paul Ben.
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: So again, Yeah, the same the same question I asked
• 19:49
  Speaker 4: Claudia some Ben is, how do you think the Federal
• 19:51
  Speaker 4: Reserve will digest this labor data today?
• 19:56
  Speaker 8: Yeah, so it's probably a little bit weaker than you
• 19:58
  Speaker 8: know I would have liked probably that they would have
• 20:01
  Speaker 8: liked me. I guess we'd all be looking for that
• 20:02
  Speaker 8: sort of goldilocks number that last month was was an aberration.
• 20:06
  Speaker 8: Last month probably wasn't an aberration, even though you know,
• 20:11
  Speaker 8: the numbers were revised down a little bit. Today, I
• 20:14
  Speaker 8: think they're probably leaning a little bit more towards fifty.
• 20:17
  Speaker 8: But I think, bottom line, you know, they're going to
• 20:19
  Speaker 8: get started. Inflation break evens are at two percent. They've
• 20:23
  Speaker 8: a lot of room to cut here if they feel
• 20:25
  Speaker 8: that they need. I would like to see them get started,
• 20:29
  Speaker 8: and I think the chances a fifty basis point cut
• 20:31
  Speaker 8: probably increased a little bit. But you know, I'm not
• 20:33
  Speaker 8: sweating the pace I think too much. I think, you know,
• 20:36
  Speaker 8: there's a lot of moving parts here. I think overall,
• 20:38
  Speaker 8: this is an economy which is which is slowing. But
• 20:41
  Speaker 8: you know, let's not lose some perspective here. I mean,
• 20:43
  Speaker 8: this is an economy that we just had a three
• 20:45
  Speaker 8: percent inflation GDP print last you know, last quarter, that's
• 20:49
  Speaker 8: nearly double potential GDP unemployment just over four percent. I mean,
• 20:55
  Speaker 8: we're coming from the start point is a very good.
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: Place, given that backdrop, ben given effect that we've got
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: Rachs likely coming down, got through a pretty solid earnings
• 21:04
  Speaker 4: period in Q two. What are the sectors at screenwall
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: for you guys.
• 21:09
  Speaker 8: I think the biggest call right now is not necessarily
• 21:12
  Speaker 8: the direction of the market, which I think is pretty
• 21:15
  Speaker 8: well set and you know, up and to the right.
• 21:17
  Speaker 8: I think it's more about the sectors you own and
• 21:20
  Speaker 8: which parts of the world you own. I think this
• 21:22
  Speaker 8: is a broadening ball market. I think Tech's being a
• 21:25
  Speaker 8: great place to be. It's nothing wrong with Tech, but
• 21:27
  Speaker 8: I think you know the bits of the world and
• 21:30
  Speaker 8: the sectors that are much more sensitive to these interest
• 21:34
  Speaker 8: rate cuts which are coming. It's not the US and
• 21:36
  Speaker 8: it's not Tech, it's basically everybody else. All there's are
• 21:38
  Speaker 8: the bits of the market that we've forgotten about for
• 21:41
  Speaker 8: the last ten years. That's I think where you know
• 21:43
  Speaker 8: you should be kicking the ties on right now.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Ben, I don't have Apple in front of me, but
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: you are way out front.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: Twenty eighteen, twenty two, twenty three.
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: In all I'm here in Paul, you earn a lot
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: of death of big tech. I am Ben Ladler, the
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Mag seven, the Mag eight, including Berkshire.
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: You still got to own them, right, Yeah.
• 22:02
  Speaker 8: I think so. You know, the earning numbers are decelerating,
• 22:06
  Speaker 8: but that's still you know, no one else comes even close.
• 22:09
  Speaker 8: You've got these fortress balance sheets, You've got these huge
• 22:11
  Speaker 8: profit margins. You know, with all that, I can more
• 22:14
  Speaker 8: than justify you know, the valuations. You know, but we
• 22:18
  Speaker 8: all know that they're posting strong growth. You know, the
• 22:20
  Speaker 8: valuations are you know, already a premium numbers. That's not
• 22:24
  Speaker 8: I don't think where the surprise is going to come.
• 22:26
  Speaker 8: That's not where the sensitivity to low interest rates is
• 22:28
  Speaker 8: coming from. It's everybody else that has those shrivel profit
• 22:32
  Speaker 8: margins that has those you know, depressed earnings expectations, who've
• 22:37
  Speaker 8: just come out of an earnings recession where valuations are
• 22:40
  Speaker 8: forty to fifty percent lower. That's where I think you're
• 22:42
  Speaker 8: going to get the bank of your buck in this
• 22:44
  Speaker 8: sort of broadening ball market and potential changing leadership.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: To sort of visit, we got to get Ben Laylor
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: on again. Next time Tottenham wins will get Ben Leablor on.
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: Ben Laylor.
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: Thank you so much with Bradesco this morning. Paul.
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: Your observation here, Yeah, I think, as you know, Claudia,
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: Sam Mark Zandi kind of highlighted here. It's still a strong,
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: fairly strong labor market, but slowing. I think Neil Duddo
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: is more embarrassing. Hey, the underlying weakness, I think Claudia
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: Slam is there as well. The underlying weakness is probably
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: the more pronounced aspect of the labor market that the
• 23:19
  Speaker 4: recent trends have been weakening, and those recent trends argue
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: for the FED to step up here. And whether it's
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: twenty five or fifty basis points, the market right now,
• 23:29
  Speaker 4: as our Bloomberg News is reporting, is pricing in a
• 23:32
  Speaker 4: fifty basis point rate cut.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: In September, Paulo out on YouTube, we are listening to witty,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: smart not young people.
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: Okay this morning. We're not young, all right, except.
• 23:45
  Speaker 7: At least is young.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: I'm not young.
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: Second morning to all of you New to the Jobs
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Day ninety two nine FM Boston from Millanocket down to
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: Black Island, which means you play Jay.
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: Giles for Joan Jet. Good morning
• 24:02
  Speaker 8: Shown, Love Steaks, Loves, Loves, Loves Takes