Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 346 - 9/4/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 346 - 9/4/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:18
  Hello, and welcome to episode 346 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Thirsty Thursday, but. More importantly, happy NFL
• 0:40
  opening night. That's right, The long wait is
• 0:42
  over. The offseason is over.
• 0:44
  The NFL preseason is done with. It's finally here.
• 0:48
  Guys. The best time of year, the best
• 0:50
  sport to sweat. Man, It is great to have
• 0:52
  football back. And of course, we do have the
• 0:54
  Cowboys and the Eagles tonight kicking off the NFL season.
• 0:58
  And I got a best bet on this one.
• 1:00
  So get ready to put on the hazmat suit.
• 1:01
  This is a gross one. But I got to play for Cowboys
• 1:04
  and Eagles tonight and we got a three pack overall.
• 1:06
  Not just the Thursday Night Football match up here tonight,
• 1:09
  week one season opener, but also I got two Major League Baseball
• 1:13
  plays. And then also I got to play in
• 1:15
  college football. There's a game tomorrow that I
• 1:17
  kind of hinted at toward the the end of yesterday's pod and I was
• 1:21
  waiting for a hook and I found it.
• 1:23
  So do have a play for tomorrow's one of tomorrow's game.
• 1:26
  So stay tuned for that. Want to get hopefully out ahead
• 1:28
  of that one. I also have an NFL futures bet
• 1:30
  for you one team to win their division.
• 1:33
  So I do want to kind of get all my futures, just, you know, kind
• 1:36
  of. All tidied up.
• 1:37
  Here in terms of win totals, I am on Patriots over 7 1/2
• 1:41
  already and Saints under 5 1/2. Don't worry, I'll update you
• 1:44
  guys. Probably on tomorrow's pod.
• 1:46
  The full list here, but I wanted to add some futures.
• 1:49
  I did get Bo Nicks over what was it, 22 1/2 passing T DS.
• 1:53
  I think it was ESPN bet it was -150 So I'll give you the full
• 1:56
  breakdown tomorrow. But again, I, I really like
• 1:58
  having futures because they give you something to root for
• 2:01
  throughout the year. And then hopefully, you know,
• 2:03
  even though you got to have some patience and liquidity, if you
• 2:05
  cash something, you know, in December, January, it cashes and
• 2:09
  feels just as good as if you cash right now.
• 2:11
  So a lot to get to on today's podcast.
• 2:14
  I also have a big announcement because I have a new partnership
• 2:17
  here. I'm going to tell you all about
• 2:18
  it in one second. But I did just want to mention
• 2:20
  again, with NFL season starting, you can join the NFL survivor
• 2:25
  pool that I have with Splash Sports.
• 2:27
  So you can check out the the links from the my Twitter
• 2:30
  account at Josh under score Insights.
• 2:32
  I'm also going to put all this information within the body of
• 2:35
  the podcast if you're listening iTunes.
• 2:37
  Spotify just. Get the breakdown of the pod.
• 2:40
  It'll list all these links, but also I want to remind everyone
• 2:43
  tonight we have our Thursday rhythm report, myself and Kate
• 2:46
  Harper. So we'll be breaking down rhythm
• 2:48
  and talking about tonight's game obviously, as well as some other
• 2:50
  games this weekend catching our eye.
• 2:53
  I want to mention as well, you know, if you want to do what I
• 2:55
  do, I mention it every pod, but there are two big resources you
• 2:58
  need, especially with the NFL starting.
• 3:00
  One is your live odds page being able.
• 3:02
  To track the market. Look what aligned open at where
• 3:05
  it move identify steam get the best price.
• 3:07
  So of course, give Odds Logic a shot and use this promo code
• 3:11
  oddslogic.com 123 or sorry, odds logic.com Josh 123.
• 3:18
  That will give you 50% off your first month in a 7 day free
• 3:22
  trial. And then also the betting
• 3:23
  splits. I always mention the splits.
• 3:26
  People always ask me where do you get them from?
• 3:27
  Well, I'm also a sports betting analyst at VSON.
• 3:30
  If you want to become a Visen Pro member, you can go to
• 3:32
  visen.com/splits and you'll get those DraftKings and Circa
• 3:36
  splits that we're going to reference all year long.
• 3:38
  They're really important for football because DraftKings is
• 3:40
  going to tell you where the public is and of course the
• 3:43
  sharps where they're at out at Circa.
• 3:45
  Before we dive into our NFL play for tonight, first one of the
• 3:49
  year or we had some preseason ones was the first official 1:00
• 3:51
  and then of course talk futures in MLBI wanted to make an
• 3:55
  announcement. So for all those of you out
• 3:58
  there, you may have seen on my Twitter at Josh under score and
• 4:00
  Sky at Josh under score insights, I should say, but I
• 4:03
  have a new partnership I am partnering with.
• 4:06
  You know who it is Novig. Have you guys ever heard of
• 4:10
  Novig? Well, Novig is America's number
• 4:14
  one sports prediction market. It's available in over 35
• 4:18
  states. The only state said it's not
• 4:20
  available, Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Louisiana,
• 4:25
  Michigan, Montana, Jersey, Nevada, Tennessee and
• 4:28
  Washington. So there are few, it's not
• 4:30
  available yet, but hopefully it will be.
• 4:32
  But the whole point of Novig, you can think about the name
• 4:36
  Novig. What's the vig?
• 4:37
  The vig is the vigorous, vigorous the juice.
• 4:40
  So the big thing here is that you're getting better prices on
• 4:43
  games. And Novig isn't a sports book,
• 4:46
  it's what we call a betting exchange.
• 4:48
  So the whole point is that instead of competing against the
• 4:52
  house where anytime you make a bet, either you're going to win
• 4:54
  money or the house is going to take your money instead, with a
• 4:57
  betting exchange that kind of risen in popularity recently,
• 5:00
  they were pretty widely available in Europe.
• 5:03
  Across the pond, but. Kind of come to America in
• 5:06
  recent years, there's some legality about a lot of this
• 5:08
  stuff and now it's of course legal and you can bet on it in
• 5:11
  America. But the really interesting thing
• 5:14
  is that instead of betting against the house, you're
• 5:16
  betting against. Other sports better?
• 5:18
  So you're betting against your peers.
• 5:20
  So basically instead of, you know, losing to the house, you
• 5:23
  would either win or. Lose to a fellow.
• 5:25
  Better and if you ask me, I'd rather lose to someone else
• 5:28
  who's trying to grind out a profit like me versus the house
• 5:31
  who just, you know, Rakes my winnings.
• 5:33
  But anyway, the point here is that what's interesting about a
• 5:36
  betting exchanges, when you place a bet, you need someone
• 5:40
  else to be on the. Other side of that bet.
• 5:42
  And it kind of sounds complicated, but basically if
• 5:44
  you want to bet, you know, 100 bucks on, you know, I don't
• 5:48
  know, the Cleveland Browns this weekend, you know, plus 5 1/2,
• 5:51
  you log into Novig. And if they're as long as
• 5:54
  there's an opportunity for someone else betting the other
• 5:56
  side, like you find someone betting Cincinnati at -5 1/2,
• 6:00
  you then kind of peer-to-peer bet against each other.
• 6:03
  Now, you're not going to know who these people are, but the
• 6:05
  whole point being, and you log into Novig, it's going to give
• 6:08
  you the breakdown. So the odds are going to look a
• 6:09
  little bit different from a sports book.
• 6:11
  But remember, you are getting better odds.
• 6:13
  You're actually up to 10 times more likely to win based upon
• 6:17
  getting better numbers because remember this isn't the house
• 6:19
  taking 10% on every play. So getting better odds.
• 6:23
  You can also create your own odds.
• 6:24
  So there's a take versus make. You just have to create it.
• 6:27
  And then you got to have someone else bet the other side.
• 6:29
  If they don't, obviously it's no bet, but you can pretty much
• 6:32
  easily find anyone else betting the other side of a bet.
• 6:36
  And then when in Novig, when you log in, you can go bet that team
• 6:40
  or those odds and it'll give you the amount you can bet up to.
• 6:43
  So basically you have to find someone else willing to I bet
• 6:46
  the other side at the amount that you're betting at.
• 6:48
  And what's really interesting too about Novig is that they
• 6:51
  don't limit or outright refuse sharp or profitable betters.
• 6:55
  So you guys all know if you bet at a certain sports book, I'm
• 6:58
  not naming names, but you start winning or you don't even have
• 7:01
  to win. You just have to start beating
• 7:02
  the closing line and making sharp bets.
• 7:04
  Well, they will. They'll limit you.
• 7:06
  Maybe you're betting 100 bucks a game.
• 7:07
  Now you can only bet 8 bucks a game or they're just going to
• 7:10
  outright refuse your action. So I'm really interested in
• 7:13
  these betting exchanges. To me, in the end, my number one
• 7:16
  goal is to help Betters win. And if there is a.
• 7:19
  Different platform that we can bet on that's legal.
• 7:23
  That gives us better odds. And we can make more money and
• 7:26
  become more profitable then hey, I'm all for that.
• 7:29
  So that being said, I did just tweet it out.
• 7:31
  You can go to my Twitter at Josh under score Insights.
• 7:33
  There's a link there that you can click.
• 7:36
  But also, if you just wanted to type in the promo code Josh 123,
• 7:41
  that's going to give you 100% deposit match up to 25 bucks.
• 7:45
  So you basically fund your Novig account like you would a sports
• 7:48
  book. You can put in however much you
• 7:50
  want, but if you just put in 25 bucks using Josh 123, you're
• 7:54
  going to get 25 more bucks 100% match so.
• 7:56
  You're going to start with. 50 bucks and then again, you can
• 7:59
  bet 2 bucks a game, you can do whatever you want, but it is an
• 8:02
  opportunity for us to we're not going to give up on all of our
• 8:05
  sports books, but this might be a way that you guys kind of, I
• 8:09
  don't know, abandoned the sports books and and kind of bet
• 8:11
  through an exchange, which hopefully will benefit you and
• 8:15
  you can make more money and hopefully profit more.
• 8:17
  So that's the announcement. I am now a partner with Novig
• 8:21
  again, check my Twitter account at Josh under score insights.
• 8:24
  I'm going to put these links in the bio description of the pod,
• 8:26
  but just remember you can click that affiliate link or you can
• 8:29
  just type in Josh 123 and you get that deposit match 100% up
• 8:34
  to 25 bucks. So welcome to Novig, our first
• 8:37
  betting exchange. Now we go back to her.
• 8:40
  Last night, 1 and 2 -, 1.37 units.
• 8:42
  We got the Blue Jays, another wild one in Cincinnati.
• 8:45
  They won 13 and 9, but the red. Sox got their faces.
• 8:49
  Ripped off Jordan Hicks, complete bum.
• 8:51
  They lost 8 to 1 and then the Padres got swept by the Orioles.
• 8:55
  Huge steam in their favor. Nestor Cortez got lit up.
• 8:58
  So Jordan Hicks and Nestor Cortez, thanks for nothing.
• 9:01
  They end up losing 7 to 5 S 1 and 2 -, 1.37 unit night in
• 9:05
  baseball. But of course, coming off A1 and
• 9:08
  O Monday, a three and O Tuesday, sometimes you're going to take a
• 9:10
  little bit of a step back. Now, with all that being said,
• 9:13
  let's waste no more time because we got NFL football to talk
• 9:16
  about. So the season opener.
• 9:18
  I've been waiting all day for Thursday night Cowboys at the
• 9:21
  Eagles. Let's set the stage talk line
• 9:24
  movement that split system matches.
• 9:26
  I don't know if you can hear my my dog, she's below me and she's
• 9:30
  sleeping and dreaming. So maybe hear some some noises
• 9:33
  from her. But anyway, Cowboys come in 7:00
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  and 10:00. Last year they missed the
• 9:38
  playoffs. Odds makers are expecting
• 9:40
  basically a similar type team this year.
• 9:42
  Their win total is 7 1/2, but the under is juice -120 at
• 9:45
  DraftKings. Meanwhile, the Eagles, 14 and
• 9:48
  three last year won the Super Bowl, crushed the Chiefs 40 to
• 9:52
  22. Don't remind me.
• 9:53
  I had the Chiefs there. Philly is +700 to repeat as
• 9:56
  champions. They have the third best odds
• 9:59
  behind the Bills and the Ravens, both at +600.
• 10:03
  The Eagles, meanwhile, are -145 favorites to win the NFCS
• 10:07
  division and their plus 350 favorites to win the NFC
• 10:11
  conference. And by the way, odds makers have
• 10:14
  set the Eagles win total this year at 11 1/2.
• 10:16
  Just a little under -125 Now, what are we seeing across the
• 10:20
  market with this one? Will this game opened with the
• 10:23
  line? Listed here.
• 10:25
  Philadelphia. Around A7 point home favorite
• 10:28
  and the public is saying Eagles all day.
• 10:31
  They're going to easily win, easily cover defending champs.
• 10:34
  Cowboys traded away Micah Parsons, they're a dumpster
• 10:36
  fire. Lay with the Eagles.
• 10:38
  They're going to roll here. However, even though you're
• 10:41
  getting nearly 2/3 of spread bets at DraftKings, or actually,
• 10:44
  I should say 2/3 of spread bets at DraftKings, we have seen this
• 10:47
  line move toward the eagles -7 all the way up to -8 1/2.
• 10:52
  But here's where it gets interesting.
• 10:53
  Once we got to 8 1/2, I've been wondering to myself what happens
• 10:57
  next. We get up to 9.
• 10:58
  Do we see it come back down to 8?
• 11:00
  It's pretty clear here. A big line movement toward the
• 11:02
  Eagles. I would argue it's not just the
• 11:04
  public. But obviously, the Cowboys.
• 11:05
  Trading away Micah Parsons now we've gotten 8 1/2, though it
• 11:09
  looks like that might be the high watermark because the
• 11:11
  Cowboys plus 8 1/2 is now juiced up to -115 -, 120 and a lot of
• 11:17
  books have actually gotten back down to 8.
• 11:20
  So think of it this way. If everyone's betting the Eagles
• 11:23
  and the lines move pretty big in their favor, a full point and a
• 11:25
  half, you know, do we get it to 9 and just it keeps going up and
• 11:28
  up and up just steam with no buyback.
• 11:30
  We all know that's very important.
• 11:32
  No, there has been buyback. It looks like the Cowboys plus 8
• 11:35
  1/2 is when this buyback is occurring because they're
• 11:38
  juicing up the Cowboys side -115 + 8 1/2 and again, some books
• 11:42
  getting back down to 8. So that's notable to me.
• 11:45
  Now the Cowboys, obviously when we're getting to a prime time
• 11:49
  game, football's coming back. Football's one of the best
• 11:51
  sports, NFL to bet against the public.
• 11:53
  It's the most heavily bet sport, most public action, therefore
• 11:56
  the most public bias that you want to go against.
• 11:59
  So not only is an NFL game, but it's a prime time game, heavily
• 12:02
  bet, nationally televised, and the public is on the Eagles
• 12:06
  again, getting roughly 66% of spread bets.
• 12:09
  Flip it the other way. Cowboys are the bet against the
• 12:12
  public. Play all the drunk guys at the
• 12:14
  bar saying lay the points with the Eagles.
• 12:16
  They're going to fly. Eagles fly, they're going to
• 12:18
  roll here. They're going to win by double
• 12:19
  digits. This spot, though, I want to bet
• 12:22
  against. Obviously, the majority of the.
• 12:24
  Public, which is on the Eagles, so Dallas is offering only
• 12:27
  getting a third of bets in the nationally televised game.
• 12:30
  Some pretty good bet splits. If you look.
• 12:32
  At the Cowboys, they're only getting 34% of spread bets, but
• 12:36
  43% of spread dollars. At DraftKings at Circa, 38% of
• 12:41
  spread bets, 47% of dollars. So both DraftKings and Circa are
• 12:45
  in a. Low bets, higher dollar sharp.
• 12:47
  Split and also the Cowboys. I'm not going.
• 12:49
  To call the Cowboys sharp. Like, yes, there's been sharp
• 12:51
  buyback plus 8 1/2 kind of juicing it up, bring it back the
• 12:54
  other way. But to me, this is a value play,
• 12:57
  contrarian play and a system match play in terms of the
• 13:00
  systems look at listen to all these systems that the Cowboys
• 13:02
  match here. Week one Dogs 78 and 62 against
• 13:08
  the spread 56 percent 8% ROI since 2016 week.
• 13:12
  One Rd. Dogs 52 and 36 ATS 59 percent,
• 13:17
  14% ROI since 2016. Week 1 Divisional Dogs 31 and 16
• 13:23
  ATS 66%. Twenty, 6% ROI since 2016, Week
• 13:28
  1 big dogs plus 6 1/2 or more, 25 and 12 ATS 68 percent, 31%
• 13:35
  ROI. And then lastly, inflated dogs
• 13:38
  when the public is hammering the favorite and the line moves
• 13:40
  further toward the favorite. And week 1, if you buy low on
• 13:43
  those inflated dogs, getting at least one point off the opener.
• 13:47
  In this case, you're getting a point and a half member open at
• 13:49
  7:00. Those teams are 36 and 21
• 13:52
  against the spread 63% with a 21% ROI since 2016.
• 13:57
  So all those systems are lighting.
• 13:58
  Up on the Cowboys, you. Look at the quarterbacks.
• 14:01
  Jalen Hurts, obviously he's awesome, but he's only 6 and 11
• 14:04
  against the. Spread 35%.
• 14:07
  As a favorite of -7 or more than you flip it to.
• 14:10
  DAC usually doesn't win these games, but he covers when DAC is
• 14:14
  getting a dog of seven or more. He is 4 and one against the
• 14:17
  spread, 80% in his career. Little cherry on top, nothing
• 14:21
  crazy, but Sean Smith, the lead ref, he is 54% ATS historically
• 14:25
  to the road team. Now if you tell me like the
• 14:28
  Eagles, not going to argue. You know the vast majority of
• 14:30
  the public likes the Eagles too. I'm only playing them.
• 14:33
  I'm I'm not playing them personally.
• 14:34
  But what I'm saying is if you're playing them, I think you
• 14:37
  probably want to tease them -8 1/2 down to -2 1/2.
• 14:40
  That would be a Wong teaser. Going through multiple key
• 14:43
  numbers, the three and the seven, in terms of the total, we
• 14:46
  have seen this thing tick up 46 1/2 to. 47 1/2.
• 14:49
  When I wrote the sharp. Report I'm now.
• 14:51
  Seeing it's up to 4848 1/2. 64. Percent bets 71% dollars on the.
• 14:56
  Over over 60%. Of bets and dollars on the over
• 15:00
  both Circa and DraftKings. I'm not playing the under, but
• 15:04
  to me it's. Kind of.
• 15:05
  Primetime unders or nothing I did notice.
• 15:07
  When the total is 40. 7F or more primetime unders are 70. 4 and
• 15:11
  51 59. Percent 14% ROI since 2019 and
• 15:17
  the you know the the weather is not a.
• 15:18
  Huge play tonight, low 70s but there are 7 to 10 mile per hour
• 15:22
  winds. Gusts up to 25 miles an hour.
• 15:24
  And you might get some rain as well, Lincoln Financial Field.
• 15:28
  So I'm putting on the hazmat suit guys.
• 15:30
  I'm taking the Cowboys. I know it sounds disgusting,
• 15:33
  you're probably puking in your mouth, but this is what we call
• 15:35
  a hazmat play, a play that looks terrible on paper.
• 15:37
  No chance Philly's going to blow him out.
• 15:40
  But there's some buyback at 8 1/2.
• 15:42
  They're an inflated dog off the opener.
• 15:44
  They're contrarian and a heavily back game.
• 15:45
  We got a lot of system matches on Dallas.
• 15:48
  And then also, of course, referencing our friends here at
• 15:52
  at Rhythm. I popped open the Rhythm app and
• 15:55
  I have a recommended Green Star Rhythm play on Cowboys plus 8
• 15:59
  1/2. And Rhythm is saying this line
• 16:00
  should be plus 7.6. So even if you round the 7.6 up
• 16:05
  to 8, you're still covering there with the 8 1/2.
• 16:09
  So I know it's disgusting, but you kind of learn to like these
• 16:12
  girls plays when you when you bet on the NFL.
• 16:15
  I'm taking a shot with the boys. I got the Cowboys plus. 8 1/2 -
• 16:20
  1 I think it was -110 Actually, I bet it last night if you sign
• 16:24
  up to get those best bets from the Juicer Lab.
• 16:27
  But I'm going to play the Cowboys here first.
• 16:29
  Play of the Year. Plus 8 1/2 -, 110.
• 16:33
  I do have a futures. Bet obviously I'm hoping the
• 16:36
  Cowboys cover this number, but I did play the Eagles to win the
• 16:40
  NFC East. I got them at -145 at FanDuel.
• 16:44
  Other books are as high as -150 -, 160.
• 16:47
  I will bank on, obviously their continuity, their experience.
• 16:50
  Their biggest competitors are the commanders.
• 16:52
  They're plus 2:20. And then obviously you got
• 16:54
  Dallas and the Giants. Well beyond that.
• 16:57
  To me it's Eagles are commanders and obviously the commanders you
• 17:01
  know their win totals a little bit less than last year, maybe a
• 17:04
  step back. Jay and Daniels I love, but this
• 17:07
  is spot for me to get a decent price on a good Eagles team.
• 17:10
  So I did play them. I got the Cowboys +8 and half
• 17:13
  tonight, but I did play eagles -145 to win the division
• 17:17
  actually put I think it was a 2 units on it.
• 17:20
  So that is my play here as a futures bet.
• 17:24
  Now I wanted to mention a college football game for
• 17:28
  tomorrow that caught my eye. Now this is a Friday night game,
• 17:32
  James Madison and Louisville. I'm taking the points with James
• 17:36
  Madison. 7:00 Tomorrow we open this game Louisville at home.
• 17:40
  As high as a. 15 or even a 16 point home favorite and the
• 17:44
  public is saying Louisville is going to roll here.
• 17:47
  Currently you are getting at DraftKings 63% of spread bets
• 17:51
  laying the points of Louisville. However, the line hasn't.
• 17:54
  Gone further up to Louisville. -17 -, 18 It's come down.
• 17:58
  We've seen this line get down to Louisville -14 some shops even
• 18:03
  got down as low as 13 1/2 or 13 yesterday.
• 18:06
  So yesterday I was kind of mentioning how James Madison had
• 18:09
  a sharp move, but I was saying, hey, do we see buy back?
• 18:12
  Sometimes you'll see. This you got to kind of get
• 18:14
  ready for it. It might frustrate.
• 18:16
  You quite a bit, but you'll see a big.
• 18:18
  Move toward a dog and then later, a couple days throughout
• 18:20
  the week, it'll creep back up. When you're around a key number.
• 18:23
  You want to have a number in your head that you're trying to
• 18:25
  get and then just wait for it. So I was saying, man, James
• 18:28
  Madison's pretty sharp here, but I really want to get the hook on
• 18:31
  the 14 1/2. So I did wait and I did see
• 18:34
  today that ESPN bet is offering James Madison plus 14 1/2 at
• 18:39
  -115 I jumped on that. I took the the Dukes here.
• 18:43
  Plus 14 1/2 -, 115. They're contrarian in a heavily
• 18:46
  back game. They're only getting 37% of
• 18:49
  spread bets, but they are getting 51.
• 18:51
  Percent of spread dollars. You also have a relatively low
• 18:55
  total 55 with a dog here getting around 2 touchdowns.
• 18:59
  The hook is important to me. Some books are at 13 1/2 or 14,
• 19:02
  but again, ESPN bet is 14 1/2. If you only have a 14, I'd wait
• 19:06
  see if you can get that hook there.
• 19:08
  But my last angle here with James Madison, remember they
• 19:11
  were I think their division two and then came up to Division
• 19:13
  One. They dominated Division 2.
• 19:15
  But they've been a. Really good program and the last
• 19:18
  little cherry on top when it comes to James Madison for me.
• 19:21
  I popped open my rhythm app and I had two recommended plays on
• 19:24
  James Madison, one where they should be plus 12.7, another
• 19:28
  they should be 11.7. So rounded up to 12 or 13
• 19:32
  points, you're getting 14 1/2. You're against the public in a
• 19:35
  primetime game. It's the most heavily back game
• 19:37
  tomorrow and the line is moving toward James Madison, so I took
• 19:41
  a shot on you got to think of presidents on parade. 2nd grade.
• 19:45
  Number one was George Washington when #2 was John Adams #3 Thomas
• 19:50
  Jefferson for James Madison. 5 was James Monroe, number six
• 19:55
  Quincy Adams #7 Andrew Jackson #8 Van Buren and 9 Henry
• 20:00
  Harrison, 10 John Tyler and 11 James Polk. 12 was Zachary
• 20:03
  Taylor. You see in 13 Millard Fillmore,
• 20:07
  14 Franklin Pierce, 15. James Buchanan, 16.
• 20:09
  Abraham Lincoln. So JMU 4th president.
• 20:13
  Isn't it funny when you're like, I don't know, seven years old?
• 20:15
  I remember that song and never forgot it.
• 20:17
  Anyway, give me the Dukes plus 14 1/2.
• 20:21
  That is an early bet for me that I put in today for tomorrow's
• 20:23
  action. Now looking towards some
• 20:26
  baseball for tonight as we wrap up the pod.
• 20:29
  I got 2 plays for you in Major League.
• 20:32
  Baseball first one for. Me to call my eye.
• 20:34
  Let's go down to Tampa Bay, where the Tampa Bay Rays don't
• 20:38
  look now, but they've been a little bit hot here.
• 20:41
  They've won now 123456 in a row. They swept the Nationals, swept
• 20:46
  the Mariners. Now they're at home against the
• 20:48
  Guardians tonight. It's a 7:35 PM Eastern Time,
• 20:51
  First pitch. I stay at home.
• 20:52
  It's Steinbrenner Field where they're playing this year in
• 20:55
  Tampa, although probably better play outside than in that
• 20:57
  disgusting trop Dome. They got rolled by the
• 21:00
  hurricane. But anyway.
• 21:03
  The pitch match of tonight, Guardians at Rays.
• 21:05
  We have Logan Allen, the lefty going for Cleveland.
• 21:08
  He's 7 and 10 with a 4.42. ERA.
• 21:10
  He'll be opposed by Ryan Pepeo. He's 10 and ten 3.7 O ERA.
• 21:16
  What do we see across the market here?
• 21:17
  Well, we got some movement toward Tampa Bay.
• 21:20
  Tampa Bay open this game around a -, 150 home favorite.
• 21:23
  We've now seen the Rays get bet up to around -165 S buddy's 15
• 21:28
  cent steam move in favor of Tampa.
• 21:30
  I jumped on Tampa -162 at FanDuel, but here's a couple
• 21:34
  things I like about Tampa $0.15. The move in their favor market
• 21:37
  moved in their direction tells me pros like Tampa.
• 21:41
  Bet splits at Circa really jumped out to me.
• 21:43
  Only 44% of bets but 69% of dollars on the money line are
• 21:48
  going with the raise. So with the splits always
• 21:50
  important, low bets, higher dollars with a line move.
• 21:54
  Then you look at some system matches here.
• 21:56
  Both off the win or both off a win.
• 21:59
  Take the home team, that system is 158 this year, 63 percent 17%
• 22:06
  ROI. You also look at home favorite
• 22:08
  with Big Steam $0.10 or more 69 in the opening of a new series
• 22:13
  69 and 3368. Percent. 4% ROI Tampa would also
• 22:17
  have that non division favorite value, so lack of familiarity
• 22:21
  benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
• 22:24
  You also get some other angles here, the two pitchers, Logan
• 22:27
  Allen has a 4.42 ERA on the year, but in the month of August
• 22:31
  he made 5 starts, has an ERA of 5.9 six, 4.97 ERA on the road
• 22:37
  versus 4 point O 5 at home. So he's been pretty bad.
• 22:40
  Hope that continues tonight in the month of August and worse on
• 22:43
  the road than at home. He's on the road tonight.
• 22:45
  Meanwhile, Ryan Pepeo, 3.7 O ERA on the year, but he's pitched
• 22:49
  pretty good in August. 5 starts, 3.25 ERA.
• 22:53
  He's got a 3.25 ERA at home versus 4.2 O on the road.
• 22:57
  He's at home here. I'm going to bank on the bats of
• 23:00
  the Rays hopefully getting to Allen.
• 23:02
  They're hitting 253 on the year, 157 homers, 636 runs scored.
• 23:08
  Cleveland hitting 224 on the year, 143 homers, 538 runs
• 23:12
  scored. Lastly, you look home Rd.
• 23:15
  nothing crazy, but Tampa 37 and 33 at home Cleveland 34 and 36
• 23:20
  on the road and the Rays, who again they've kind of been up
• 23:24
  and down this year, but they're now a game above 500.
• 23:27
  They do have you know an opportunity to make the wild
• 23:30
  card right now Tampa Bay is just 2 1/2 games back of the final
• 23:35
  wild card spots. Maybe some some motivation here.
• 23:38
  I mean, obviously Cleveland, they're motivated to to make the
• 23:40
  post season, but the Rays are playing really well.
• 23:42
  They won six straight. They got steam today and
• 23:45
  hopefully Pepeo greater than Allen.
• 23:47
  I got down on Tampa at -162 at FanDuel.
• 23:52
  Next one for you, 7:40 PM Eastern Time, first pitch.
• 23:55
  It's a gross one. Hold your nose.
• 23:57
  White Sox at the Minnesota Twinkies now.
• 24:00
  White Sox come in 52 and 88. Twins 62 and 77.
• 24:05
  The White Sox, believe it or not, have taken the first three
• 24:07
  games of this four-game set and pouring out anyone who had the
• 24:12
  Twins last night because the Twins are up were they up 3 to
• 24:16
  one in the ninth and blew it and lost 4 to 3?
• 24:20
  So tough one there, but I do like tonight the Twins to get
• 24:24
  back on track and avoid the sweep and get a win here.
• 24:27
  Now pitching matchup. We got Frazier Ellard Ellard
• 24:31
  lefty never heard of him. O and two 4.82 ERAI do know Taj
• 24:35
  Bradley. He was picked up in a deal from
• 24:38
  the the Rays. He's six and seven, 4.82 ERA.
• 24:42
  But to me, this is just a data-driven play.
• 24:44
  The line is moved toward Minnesota.
• 24:46
  They open as low as -140 they now bet up to around -155 I got
• 24:51
  the Twins at -154 at FanDuel. You look at the splits really
• 24:56
  jump out to me at circa 43% bets, 87% dollars on Minnesota.
• 25:02
  So low bets, higher dollars of the line move, going to bank on
• 25:05
  the offense of Minnesota hopefully getting to Ellard or
• 25:08
  Allard Hitting 238 on the year, 163 homers, 584 runs scored.
• 25:14
  White Sox hitting two 34143 homers, 558 runs scored.
• 25:20
  Now Minnesota's dead even at home. 35 and 35.
• 25:23
  I know the White Sox have taken the first three games here on
• 25:25
  the road, but they are one of the worst Rd. teams in baseball.
• 25:27
  22 and 46. And I know Bradley as well as
• 25:31
  numbers don't look. Great.
• 25:33
  But he did pitch pretty well here.
• 25:35
  He's made two starts since joining the Twinkies, and his
• 25:38
  last start out pitch really well against the Padres.
• 25:41
  Now they lost 12 to 3. But it wasn't his fault.
• 25:44
  He went five innings, only gave up one run at home.
• 25:47
  So hey, another home start here. Hopefully can pitch well.
• 25:51
  But I'm going to bank on Minnesota.
• 25:52
  To avoid the sweep, hopefully. Get a win here tonight.
• 25:55
  I got Minnesota on the money line -154 So Tampa in Minnesota
• 26:00
  on the money line in baseball and dear God, Cowboys don't get
• 26:04
  blown out. Lose by 8 or less Cowboys plus 8
• 26:07
  1/2 tonight in the NFL. So that about does it for
• 26:10
  episode 346 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 26:14
  powered by Rhythm. As always guys, this is the part
• 26:16
  of the pottery wrap things up. And I start first by saying
• 26:19
  thank you. Thank you for tuning in,
• 26:21
  listening. Obviously it's busy time of
• 26:23
  year, football's back, but the fact you make time.
• 26:28
  Out of your busy. Lives to you know, devote 2530
• 26:30
  minutes, listen to the breakdowns and get the insights.
• 26:33
  I really really appreciate it means a lot to me.
• 26:35
  Now if you do enjoy the pod and you want to give it a five star
• 26:38
  review on Spotify or iTunes or leave a comment or click the
• 26:42
  follow button to recommend the pod to a friend, that would also
• 26:45
  make my day. Next, if you haven't done it yet
• 26:48
  and you want to support the team and learn more about data-driven
• 26:51
  betting and get prepared for the NFL season again, it's crunch
• 26:55
  time right now, but I'd love for you guys to buy one or both of
• 26:58
  my books. You can someone DM me and say I
• 27:02
  don't really like to read. Do you have an audio book?
• 27:04
  I'm like, Yep, Yep, I do. So we got audio books, We got
• 27:08
  paperback copy, we got the Kindle, all available here to
• 27:13
  check out my new book. It's called the NFL Sharp
• 27:15
  Betting Playbook. Please continue to tweet me
• 27:17
  photos of you holding the book. I love it.
• 27:19
  I'll give it a retweet if you want to give the NFL Sharp
• 27:22
  Betting Playbook 5 stars and a nice comment and review on
• 27:25
  Amazon, I would love that. I also wrote a book called the
• 27:27
  Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 27:29
  You can check that out. Great for new betters, but
• 27:32
  especially the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook still #1 new release in
• 27:35
  the sports gambling category on Amazon.
• 27:38
  So I'm very honored by that. You can buy one or both of my
• 27:41
  books, bring them to the sports book, I'll sign them for you,
• 27:43
  buy your beer or ginger ale and we'll take a shot and sweat the
• 27:46
  boys to your tonight next. Have you downloaded rhythm and
• 27:50
  juice Real yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 27:52
  apps. Remember Rhythm the show
• 27:54
  tonight, the Rhythm report 6:00 PM Eastern Time stream live on
• 27:58
  Twitter. Rhythm is great for their AI
• 28:00
  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 28:03
  When we're betting NFL this year guys, I'm always going to
• 28:05
  reference what is the line at Rhythm because it just gives us
• 28:07
  another good reference point. Like again, for example, the
• 28:10
  Cowboys Rhythms got them +7. What did I say earlier?
• 28:14
  Plus 7.6. Again, we're getting 8 1/2, so
• 28:17
  ideally we're getting an edge based on the rhythm prediction.
• 28:20
  They're great with player. Props as well.
• 28:21
  They just launched a new contest.
• 28:23
  They have power trends. I got to go download Rhythm and
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  you can use start 25 to get 25% off and then also Juice reel.
• 28:31
  This pod is free if you want to support the pod, learn more
• 28:33
  about data-driven bedding and you want to get the plays as
• 28:37
  soon as I make them again, I'm I'll be firing off bats at any
• 28:41
  time at this point. Like I bet last night that 8 and
• 28:43
  half of the boys cuz I found a -110 but you can support the pod
• 28:47
  by getting those best bet picks from Juice reel.
• 28:49
  It costs $4.99 a week, basically a cup of coffee to get all the
• 28:54
  plays and support the pod. And to me it's tipping your
• 28:57
  podcast host. So please sign up and get those
• 28:59
  if you're interested. You also get the robo Jackson
• 29:02
  best bet picks the sharp mush indicators, the arbitrage plays.
• 29:05
  Shop for the best line futures go download rhythm go download
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  juice reel give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 29:12
  Next you have a live odds page I mentioned earlier you got to
• 29:14
  have. Odds logic best live.
• 29:16
  Odds page around you got to be able to track the market.
• 29:18
  What did the line open at? How is it moved?
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  Where is it now? Where did buy back?
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  Take place pull. Up the line history, Identify
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  Steam, Get the best price, the best number, live scoring, live
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  in game wagering. All available with odds logic,
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  so give it a shot. 7 day free trial. 50% off your first month
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  just go to. Odds logic dot.
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  Com slash Josh 123 of course I mentioned earlier, join the NFL
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  survivor man, we got a lot going on.
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  NFL survivor with Splash Sports $25 entry you can win 11K and as
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  I mentioned earlier, I'm now a novig partner here.
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  So join the betting exchange, but against your peers, not the
• 29:55
  book. You can use Josh 123 as your
• 30:00
  promo code or click the link that I tweeted out earlier at
• 30:02
  Josh under score Insights. So that about dozen guys as
• 30:06
  always, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 30:09
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 30:11
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in
• 30:14
  Boston, Plain Ridge Park Casino MGM Springfield, the Nash in my
• 30:17
  neck of the woods or out in the desert where the true grinders
• 30:20
  get down. Or Billy Walters sends his
• 30:21
  number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 30:24
  Point. Or sweating sharp contrarian
• 30:26
  plays jumping in the stadium swimming pool when he cashed a
• 30:29
  big ticket at Circa. You're going to walk up to me.
• 30:31
  Show me a Jays ticket. Nice to see them come through.
• 30:34
  But the Red Sox and the Padres, pathetic Cortez and and Hicks,
• 30:38
  man, you guys were just just putrid last night.
• 30:42
  But anyway, guys, first one's on me.
• 30:43
  Next one's on you will sweat some baseball in the NFL, which
• 30:46
  is back here tonight So as always, guys 1 and 2 two and
• 30:50
  one, O and three, three and O hot, cold somewhere in the
• 30:53
  middle. You just got to keep grinding.
• 30:54
  Never get too high or too low. Don't get arrogant and cocky
• 30:58
  when things are going well. Don't get depressed and down on
• 31:00
  yourself when things are not going well.
• 31:03
  Just got to stick to the model. Stick to the blueprint, which at
• 31:05
  this point you might know by now it goes something like this
• 31:08
  against the public with the. House with the pros.
• 31:10
  Flat bet, avoid parlays. Get that CLV, if you can do that
• 31:15
  and we can do that together, then guess what, we're going to
• 31:17
  have a successful sports here, so enjoy the sweats.
• 31:19
  Everybody go boys and. I'll see you tomorrow for
• 31:22
  episode of 347 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting
• 31:25
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody and have a
• 31:29
  great Thursday night.