Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 48 - 5/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 48 - 5/21/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello and welcome to EPISODE. 48 of the all.
• 0:24
  Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
• 0:33
  Happy Tuesday another. Day here in the arena, guys.
• 0:36
  We got a lot. To talk about on today's.
• 0:38
  Podcast including the start. Of the NBA conference.
• 0:42
  Finals we have Pacer. Celtics game one tonight and I
• 0:45
  have a bet for you on Pacer Celtics.
• 0:47
  Will be the spread. Will be the total.
• 0:49
  Stay tuned, but we do have a market move.
• 0:50
  And our friends at rhythm who do a great.
• 0:53
  Job of powering this pod. And in providing game prop, prop
• 0:57
  bets and game picks. Projections from their AI backed
• 0:59
  models. They are right there with.
• 1:01
  This market movement, so stay. Tuned for that.
• 1:03
  Play here for Celtics Pacers. Game one maps Timberwolves.
• 1:06
  By the way, kick off for tomorrow, so.
• 1:09
  Might have a play on tomorrow's game as well, but then?
• 1:11
  Right back to the diamond with Major League Baseball.
• 1:14
  A Big 5 pack of sweats for you. Including a bunch of very short
• 1:17
  money line. Favorites as well as a.
• 1:19
  Dog that hopefully can bark with a really big.
• 1:20
  Rest first tired advantage, so hopefully that'll come to play
• 1:23
  and give us a winner here on The Diamond SO 6.
• 1:26
  Pack overall 5. MLB One NBA.
• 1:29
  Now. Looking back to our last night
• 1:31
  A. Frustrating night in major.
• 1:32
  League Baseball. Now the Guardians came through,
• 1:34
  which was nice. Reyes did not come through.
• 1:37
  They got rolled at home by the Red Sox, was never close.
• 1:39
  Rafael Devers hit another. Bomb but.
• 1:41
  This is a perfect example. Of how you walk the razor's
• 1:44
  edge. When it comes to betting.
• 1:46
  Baseball and how the difference? Between A1 and three night
• 1:49
  losing night difference between a three.
• 1:51
  And one night, a winning night How can be?
• 1:52
  So close. Because I'm looking at in.
• 1:54
  Two teams in particular. That I'm mad.
• 1:56
  At today Pissed off at. The Yankees.
• 1:59
  And the Brewers? The Yankees, if you didn't
• 2:01
  notice. Had a good sharp line move last.
• 2:03
  Night played the Bronx Bombers. They had a. 4:00 to 1:00.
• 2:05
  Lead going into the top. Of the ninth.
• 2:07
  They bring on Clay Holmes. Guy's been unhittable.
• 2:09
  He's got an ERA of like, one. What does Clay Holmes do?
• 2:12
  He gives up 4. Runs.
• 2:14
  In the top of the. 9th of. Course Yankees do nothing.
• 2:16
  In the bottom of the ninth. Yankees lose 5 to 4.
• 2:19
  After having a four one lead going.
• 2:21
  To the 9th again with no. Scrub on the bump.
• 2:23
  This is one of the best closers. In baseball.
• 2:25
  So where's Mariano Rivera when you need them?
• 2:28
  Then, of course, the Milwaukee. Brewers.
• 2:29
  Same thing they had. A2 to 1 lead.
• 2:31
  Going into the bottom of the ninth, they come on and cough up
• 2:34
  the lead, give up the one run. Tied two to, two go to.
• 2:37
  Extras do nothing in the top of the 10th, then they give up a
• 2:40
  run in the bottom of the. 10th So Yankees and Brewers
• 2:43
  completely collapsed for us, which was pathetic.
• 2:45
  Disgusting. Made me puke in my mouth.
• 2:48
  Had they come through three in? One night winning night, they
• 2:50
  both blow it. One and three losing nights, So
• 2:52
  one. And three. -2.2 units.
• 2:54
  Overall, I think it's just a great test case where with
• 2:57
  baseball. Got a thick skin?
• 2:59
  It's a very long season. They're going to be games.
• 3:01
  Where we have 4:00 to. 1-2 to 1. Leads in the 9th and.
• 3:04
  Cough it up and lose, but they're also going to be times
• 3:06
  where. We're down 4 to 1, down 2 to
• 3:08
  one, come back and win, so try not to get.
• 3:10
  Too high or too low? Long season, lots of games.
• 3:13
  Just unfortunately, last night. The luck was not on our side so.
• 3:16
  Let's see if we can bounce back today.
• 3:18
  With a big. Day in the arena and as I
• 3:19
  mentioned. A6 Pack 5.
• 3:21
  MLB and one big NBA game here for tonight.
• 3:24
  So usually we start off the pod talking baseball.
• 3:26
  I want to start off talking NBA because I'm excited.
• 3:29
  To watch this. Game.
• 3:30
  Yes, I'm a Celtics fan, but I have a play on this game, and
• 3:33
  the play here basically coincides with a.
• 3:35
  Great rhythm edge who does a great job of.
• 3:38
  Powering this pod as well. As.
• 3:40
  Kind of the market. Movement, so to me.
• 3:42
  As a data-driven better, I'm really trying to track the
• 3:44
  market. Leave my bias at the.
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  Door my favoritism. I'm not going to bet what I
• 3:48
  think or want or hope will happen.
• 3:50
  I want to bet where the sharp money is moving, but I also want
• 3:53
  to lean on, you know? Some respected data models, one
• 3:57
  of which of course is rhythm, who does a great job.
• 3:59
  As I mentioned powering this podcast, so game one Boston
• 4:02
  against Indiana. Just a little background.
• 4:04
  Celtics here are a. -900 favorite.
• 4:07
  To win the series that is a 90. Percent pride implied
• 4:09
  probability. Pacers have been they.
• 4:11
  Can shock the Celts. They're plus. 600 I have seen.
• 4:14
  Some people looking at series. Spread numbers.
• 4:16
  I didn't really have a play there.
• 4:18
  I think you can make a. Case for a couple different
• 4:20
  different ways to bet that. But I'm going to kind of push
• 4:22
  that. To the side.
• 4:23
  But I'm going to focus on. One bet here for tonight.
• 4:25
  Now. Couple things going on with.
• 4:27
  This game #1. We did have the line go to.
• 4:29
  Boston a little bit This game open around Celtics -9 -, 9 1/2.
• 4:33
  They got up to 10 1/2 some looks came back down a little bit, 10
• 4:37
  1/2 down to 10. Celtics do have 57%.
• 4:40
  Bets 87%. Dollars So.
• 4:43
  I got to admit the. Market does seem to be leaning
• 4:45
  a. Little bit Celtics here, but
• 4:46
  also Pacers are an inflated line contrarian, You get the.
• 4:49
  Hook 10 1/2 I think you can make.
• 4:51
  Respected cases for maybe both sides here, so I don't want to
• 4:54
  touch the side Celtics, I can just tell you from.
• 4:56
  Being a Celtics fan and watching them, you know my.
• 4:59
  Entire life, especially the last few years, they could win.
• 5:02
  By 40 tonight, they could lose. Straight up, you know this,
• 5:04
  this. Is a team.
• 5:05
  That's. Very hard to predict.
• 5:06
  Obviously the market. 'S moving in their favor.
• 5:08
  But there's a contrarian. Opportunity to go Pacers.
• 5:11
  So I'm not going to touch the spread I'm going to.
• 5:12
  Focus on the total now. One thing I like about this
• 5:14
  total. Hint, hint.
• 5:16
  Spoiler alert. I'm going over.
• 5:18
  I'm going over 221 1/2. Now seems like kind of a high.
• 5:21
  Number you know, regular. Season.
• 5:23
  That's kind of a standard total. Regular season we saw totals
• 5:26
  23240. Play offs, we've obviously seen
• 5:29
  totals get adjusted. Downward Quite a bit.
• 5:30
  Low two hundreds. I think this one is set high for
• 5:33
  a reason. Now the first thing I like about
• 5:35
  this. Over.
• 5:36
  Is starting with the market. Movement this total open around
• 5:39
  2:20. Now it's been that up to 221
• 5:41
  1/2. There are some.
• 5:42
  Books at 2:22, so it may not seem like a big deal, but.
• 5:45
  Definitely shop around. Have those multiple outs.
• 5:47
  Make sure you get. Over 2. 21 1/2.
• 5:49
  You'd hate to land 222 and you you push your 2/22.
• 5:53
  Whereas. You shop around and get that 221
• 5:56
  1/2 new cash. So get the 221 1/2.
• 5:58
  It's pretty widely available. But I'm seeing.
• 6:00
  This line tick up. Tells me smart.
• 6:02
  Money hit the over. 'Cause that line to rise.
• 6:04
  Now bet percentages around 70% of bets.
• 6:06
  But 80% of money? Is on the over so.
• 6:09
  Yes, it would be quote. UN quote a public.
• 6:10
  Play to the over. Which I don't like, but
• 6:13
  respected money, low bets, higher dollar bet.
• 6:15
  Split and the line is. Rising.
• 6:16
  So it tells us that it's not just public, but respected.
• 6:18
  Money pushing that total up. Now a little.
• 6:21
  Advantage here would be looking at the.
• 6:23
  Referees we don't have the. Extender you know you can't.
• 6:26
  Extend a game. One series but.
• 6:27
  No Scott Foster here for tonight, but Tyler Ford, Tony
• 6:30
  Brothers and. David Guthrie, They are all.
• 6:32
  Pretty good over referees especially.
• 6:35
  Tony Brothers Rest in peace. Tommy Hindson He always hated
• 6:38
  Tony. Tony Brothers does it again.
• 6:39
  Like he. Couldn't stand the guy.
• 6:41
  But anyway, they call a lot of fouls, lot of ticky tack, stop
• 6:45
  the clock, get to the free throw line, make.
• 6:46
  Your free throw so. Historically these. 3 referees
• 6:50
  are around. 51 to 53. Percent to the over.
• 6:53
  So again, nothing. I'm not going to bet a game.
• 6:54
  Only because. Of refs or officials.
• 6:57
  But it's a cherry on top that. Hopefully aligns with the
• 6:59
  direction you're leaning anyway. We have over refs.
• 7:02
  We have low bets, higher dollars over, we have the total.
• 7:04
  Ticking up but. I'm going to put a lot of stock.
• 7:06
  Into the style of play and the head to head performance between
• 7:09
  these two teams. So what do I What do I mean by
• 7:11
  that? First off, these are the top two
• 7:13
  offensive. Efficiency teams in the NBA.
• 7:16
  Celtics were #1. Pacers were #2.
• 7:18
  So we have two really good offenses, which is a good
• 7:21
  recipe. For an over then if you look at.
• 7:23
  Defensively Indiana #24. So bad.
• 7:26
  Defensive efficiency and Indiana is. #2 in terms of.
• 7:29
  Pace, so, Pacers. Even if you.
• 7:31
  Take out the Celtics are. Really good.
• 7:33
  Fast pace, Score A. Lot give up a lot.
• 7:35
  Team Celtics, obviously. Are also very rested.
• 7:38
  Here, the Celtics haven't played since the 15th of May.
• 7:41
  So if we. Have your legs and your.
• 7:42
  Offensive game here. But I'm not kind of harken back
• 7:45
  to what? We've seen from these teams
• 7:46
  throughout the regular season. Now I know it's.
• 7:48
  The playoffs, obviously, there's.
• 7:49
  You know much more on the line here.
• 7:51
  But let me just read to you the. Scores of the season series in
• 7:55
  which Boston only LED 3:00 to 2:00.
• 7:57
  I mean, I think. A lot of people think sweep
• 7:59
  here. Boston I could see maybe the
• 8:00
  Pacers giving them a. Little bit of trouble.
• 8:02
  But here are the box scores of the five.
• 8:04
  Games these teams have played. Game one Celtics 155 to One O 4.
• 8:09
  Game 2 Pacers 122 to 112. Game three Celtics 118 to one O
• 8:15
  1 game. 4 Pacers 1. 33 to 131 Game 5 Celtics 129 to 124.
• 8:23
  So if you do a little. Bit of math, I know.
• 8:26
  This is you know. Cautionary tale 'cause it's you
• 8:28
  can't just recreate the box scores, you know, there's
• 8:29
  different factors at play. But the point being?
• 8:32
  Is that in the five? Games these teams have played
• 8:34
  each other this regular season. They've averaged. 246.6.
• 8:39
  So if we're getting over. 221 1/2.
• 8:42
  You know, they're into the mid two 40s, high two 40s.
• 8:45
  To me it's a value. Play as well as not just a.
• 8:48
  By low value play, but the market's moving in our direction
• 8:50
  as well, so we're starting to check off boxes here.
• 8:53
  The total is ticked up. Good bet.
• 8:55
  Split over refs. Great offences, not great.
• 8:58
  Defense, Indiana. Fast.
• 8:59
  Pace and when these teams go off.
• 9:01
  You know, head to head. They typically score a lot, so
• 9:04
  putting that all. Together, that's making me say.
• 9:06
  Hey, let's take this over. 221 1/2.
• 9:08
  Then, to put a little bit of a cherry on top, I pop open my
• 9:11
  rhythm. App and rhythm again providing.
• 9:15
  These AI data. Driven back picks and props.
• 9:18
  My model for this game. Is projecting A2. 23.5.
• 9:22
  S 223.5, maybe you could round it up.
• 9:25
  Even if you round it down to 223, that caches.
• 9:27
  Your over 221 and a. Half round up to. 2/24.
• 9:30
  Again, you're cashing. Your over 221 1/2.
• 9:33
  So if we have market movement over refs, good offense box
• 9:37
  scores are screaming over and we have a rhythm projected
• 9:40
  projection. Here of 223.
• 9:42
  And a half that's a case that is.
• 9:44
  Strong enough for me to. Take a shot on this over.
• 9:47
  It's not the over if you're in Boston.
• 9:48
  It's the over. Yeah, let's sweat the over
• 9:50
  tonight, but I'm going based on the data.
• 9:53
  And the rhythm. Projection Celtics, Pacers, Game
• 9:55
  1 / 221 1/2. Also mention if.
• 9:59
  You haven't done it yet. Make sure you go sign up for the
• 10:02
  rhythm. App which is free 7.
• 10:04
  Day free trial you can. Create your own models.
• 10:06
  Follow the AI backed models. Game game bets.
• 10:09
  Pics and props Golf is huge now with rhythm.
• 10:11
  As well as WNBA and you can sign up.
• 10:14
  Through the the bio link. In in the podcast.
• 10:17
  As well as on my Twitter page at Josh under Score Insights.
• 10:20
  The pin tweet the custom link, make sure you use that and sign
• 10:23
  up. Also I will mention Juice Reel
• 10:26
  does another great job of. Powering This podcast.
• 10:28
  Juice Reel is. One of my favorite.
• 10:30
  Apps here. Providing you the opportunity
• 10:32
  to. Sync your bets, track your.
• 10:34
  Performance they have suggested best.
• 10:36
  Bets each day from Robo Jackson. The AI bot as well as arbitrage
• 10:41
  opportunities and sharp mush plays.
• 10:43
  Juice Reel has a game pick on this game, so I'm not going to
• 10:46
  tell you what it. Is.
• 10:47
  But if you want that game, best bet you can.
• 10:49
  Sign up for Juice Reel. Again through the custom link.
• 10:52
  Within the Twitter bio on my Twitter page or as well.
• 10:55
  In the bio description of this podcast so.
• 10:58
  Let's get an OVA. I'm rooting for points.
• 11:00
  Celts, Pacers over 2. 21 1/2 Now let's move over to.
• 11:03
  Major League Baseball 'cause, even though we were sharp as
• 11:06
  attacked last night, we had some.
• 11:07
  Bad luck. SO again.
• 11:08
  Sometimes the luck goes your way, sometimes it doesn't.
• 11:11
  Let's see if we can. Have the luck.
• 11:12
  Break our way for Today. So first, but on the board for
• 11:15
  me, this is what I call an ain't broke.
• 11:17
  Don't fix it. Play.
• 11:18
  Mets Cleveland Guardians I'm going with the Guardians.
• 11:22
  Let's go, Cleveland. Cleveland had a good line move.
• 11:24
  Cleveland opened. This game after they had a good
• 11:26
  winner for us last night, 3:00 to 1:00.
• 11:28
  They open this game as low as some books, -115 -, 120.
• 11:31
  We've now seen Cleveland gets steamed up.
• 11:33
  To -130 even -135 S Good movement in favor of the
• 11:38
  Cleveland Guardians now pitching match.
• 11:40
  Up here for tonight, Adrian Hauser is going for the Mets.
• 11:43
  He's O and three 7. .44. ERA he'll be opposed by.
• 11:47
  The ageless. Wonder righty veteran Carlos
• 11:49
  Carrasco, 2 and four 5.16 ERAI think the advantage here is
• 11:54
  Carrasco. Obviously Hauser's got some bad
• 11:56
  numbers, but if you look at Hauser Home Rd.
• 11:59
  Man, it is a big, big. Drop off here at.
• 12:01
  Home 5.4 O not very good but on the road 11. .45.
• 12:06
  So hopefully he gets lit. Up here on the road tonight.
• 12:08
  And look at Carlos Carrasco 5.16 ERA, But he's actually pitched
• 12:12
  pretty well. In the month of May and month.
• 12:14
  Of May, he's made three starts. He has an ERA of three and he's
• 12:17
  better at home than on the road. Four point O2 ERA.
• 12:19
  Versus 5.7. Six on the road now.
• 12:22
  I have a lot of systems here on. Cleveland, obviously the line
• 12:25
  move is the biggest one for me, the fact that we have, you know,
• 12:27
  10. $0.15 of steam in. Favor of Cleveland.
• 12:30
  But if you look. At a favorite with.
• 12:32
  Steam $0.10 or more. Playing a team who missed.
• 12:34
  The playoffs the previous year, so you're expected to win.
• 12:37
  You get the market movement and you're playing quote UN quote a
• 12:39
  not. Very good.
• 12:40
  Team that system is 70. 7 and 44. 64.
• 12:43
  Percent. Leave 3% ROI also.
• 12:46
  Interleague. Favorite lack of familiarity
• 12:49
  benefiting. The better team, in particular
• 12:51
  home interleague favorites. Off a win at home?
• 12:53
  Last at bat? Got the crowd in your favor,
• 12:56
  interleague? Lack of familiarity?
• 12:58
  Favorite. Expected to win off.
• 12:59
  A win. You have momentum.
• 13:00
  That system is 30. 6 and 2163% with a 7%.
• 13:04
  ROI and in particular. Mentioned this on yesterday's.
• 13:07
  Pod and it came through, but we have the Guardians as one of the
• 13:10
  best. Chalk teams when they're
• 13:11
  favored. They tend to.
• 13:13
  Win. Hopefully that continues
• 13:14
  tonight. But they are 20 and 8.
• 13:16
  As a favorite this season. Also a little bit of home Rd.
• 13:19
  Cleveland is 16 and. Six at home, that is, I now
• 13:22
  believe. I think it is now the best with
• 13:24
  the Yankees losing yesterday. Best home team in baseball?
• 13:26
  They're seven and one their last eight.
• 13:28
  They have a great bullpen. Two point. 4-5 ERA versus. 3.21
• 13:32
  for the Mets. Mets are only 11 and 12 on the
• 13:34
  road, and the Mets are minus. 15 and run.
• 13:37
  Differential. The Guardians are plus 61.
• 13:39
  So if you add it all up here guys, good sharp line move.
• 13:42
  Good team. Laying kind of a short.
• 13:43
  Price at home. A lot of system matches here.
• 13:46
  I'm going Guardians shop. Around I got Cleveland at -130.
• 13:51
  Next up, I'm looking for some revenge tonight.
• 13:53
  Let's go back down to the trop. Red Sox and Tampa Bay.
• 13:58
  And I'm going to go back right to the well.
• 13:59
  With the Tampa Bay. Rays.
• 14:01
  So last night, obviously. Tampa Bay got.
• 14:02
  Blanked. Remember?
• 14:03
  That was a pick. Em to a favorite Couldn't come
• 14:05
  through. Red Sox got the winner there.
• 14:07
  But I'm going to go with the rays tonight.
• 14:09
  Rays had a good sharp line move. They open.
• 14:10
  Around -125 -, 130, they're not up to as high as -135 minus.
• 14:15
  1:40 So good sharp. Steam move in their favor.
• 14:18
  Now what I like about this one is it's a. 5050 bets but.
• 14:21
  Publix down the middle. 50% money line.
• 14:23
  Bets, Red Sox. 50% Tampa Bay. Now remember, I always try to
• 14:26
  mention this but in a vacuum. If the tickets are split. 5050.
• 14:30
  The line really shouldn't move at all.
• 14:31
  There's no reason for the odds makers to adjust the number
• 14:34
  because. Theoretically, their action is
• 14:35
  balanced. There's no reason, no.
• 14:37
  Liability to adjust it. However, remember there's a.
• 14:39
  Difference between tickets and. Dollars.
• 14:41
  So even though the. Tickets are split.
• 14:43
  The fact that this line is shot. Up toward Tampa Bay tells us
• 14:45
  smart money is going with Tampa to hopefully even up this
• 14:48
  series. Now pitching match up for.
• 14:50
  Tonight is Cooper Criswell. He's going for Boston.
• 14:52
  Two and one 2.76 ERA against Zach Littell.
• 14:57
  For Tampa. Bay two and two. 3.44.
• 14:59
  ERA now Lattelle. 'S been good in May.
• 15:02
  The Tampa Bay Rays are. Three and O and his three May
• 15:04
  starts, and his last time out, I remember we bet.
• 15:07
  This game win Tampa Bay and they came through but.
• 15:10
  It was Lattelle against Criswell.
• 15:12
  And Criswell only went 3.2 innings, gave up three earned
• 15:14
  runs and Lattelle got the win. In that game, Tampa won seven to
• 15:17
  five. So also we have a bunch of
• 15:19
  system matches on Tampa Bay. Favorite off a loss versus?
• 15:22
  Opponent off a win. 152 and 95. 62 percent, 6%.
• 15:27
  ROIA winning team who's? Favored off a loss.
• 15:30
  So you have a above. 500 record. You're favored.
• 15:33
  You're coming off a loss. That's 92 and 5363.
• 15:36
  Percent 6% ROI generate just a very generic favorites off a
• 15:41
  loss 59% this year 2%. ROI and Tampa against the Red
• 15:44
  Sox. Are there 14 and four since the
• 15:47
  start of last year? So looking for some revenge?
• 15:49
  Looking for Tampa here? To A to get a.
• 15:51
  Winner. With a good steam move.
• 15:53
  In their favor, I'm on Tampa shop round.
• 15:55
  I got the raise at -130. Five keep on cruising.
• 16:00
  Another revenge play. Going right back to the well.
• 16:03
  With Milwaukee. Brew Crew obviously blew up for
• 16:05
  us last night with a 2 to one lead.
• 16:06
  Where's Josh Hater when you need them?
• 16:08
  But I'm digging a. Good spot here, hopefully for.
• 16:12
  A revenge play on Milwaukee now? Milwaukee Brew Crew.
• 16:16
  After losing last night, coming out today.
• 16:18
  Good move in their favor, the Milwaukee Brewers.
• 16:20
  Open as low as a -, 125. -130 Rd. favorite.
• 16:25
  We've seen now, Milwaukee. Get all the way up.
• 16:27
  To -140 -, 140. Five.
• 16:30
  So good steam in their favor now.
• 16:32
  If you look at the. Bet split here. 88% bets, 96%
• 16:36
  money is on Milwaukee, so a. Lot of obviously public support,
• 16:39
  but remember, there's not a lot of public sweating, baseball
• 16:42
  everyday work. Kind of the grinders, the
• 16:44
  masses. You know, don't have the, I
• 16:45
  don't know the patience and the the.
• 16:47
  Dedication to sweat it every day.
• 16:48
  On like NFL, which is just once a week the most public sport.
• 16:51
  On Earth but 96. Percent money tells us that we
• 16:54
  got big money here in favor of the Milwaukee Brewers with that
• 16:56
  line move. Now I really like this.
• 16:58
  Pitching match up in favor of Milwaukee?
• 17:00
  This, kids. I've never heard.
• 17:01
  Of them until the other day, Robert.
• 17:03
  Gasser. Great name for a stud lefty
• 17:06
  pitcher throwing some gas. Two and O. 0.82 ERA He'll be
• 17:10
  opposed by the lefty. Trevor Rogers.
• 17:12
  One and six 5.79 ERA for Miami. So big move in favor of
• 17:17
  Milwaukee if you look at. A bunch of system matches here
• 17:20
  on Milwaukee. The one that I really like.
• 17:21
  Is a good. Favorite off a loss?
• 17:23
  Versus a bad team. So you are a above. 500 team
• 17:26
  favored. Expected to win the game.
• 17:28
  Off a loss looking rebound against a sub 500.
• 17:30
  Team that system is 62 and 3365% this year with a 17.
• 17:36
  Percent ROI. That's the best one I have.
• 17:38
  System match for Milwaukee. But they also match with.
• 17:41
  Favorite off a loss? Opponent off a win.
• 17:43
  Winning team. Favorite off a loss?
• 17:44
  Favorite off a loss? Rd.
• 17:46
  Favorites Rd. fave off a loss. They're kind of.
• 17:48
  Variations of the same system, but they're all lighting up here
• 17:51
  on Milwaukee. Now the Brew Crew have the
• 17:53
  better bats. Hopefully.
• 17:54
  They come to life tonight. 250. Five hitting, 59 homers, 237
• 17:59
  runs. Scored Marlins are only hitting.
• 18:00
  2:30. One with 41 homers and 187 runs
• 18:04
  scored. Now if you look at correlative
• 18:08
  betting favorite, low total. This total is 8.
• 18:10
  Some books are down to 7 1/2. So we've we've seen good
• 18:14
  opportunity here to. Look for a lower scoring game
• 18:17
  where the majority of the runs theoretically would come from.
• 18:20
  The Better Team Brewers are 15. And 11 on the road.
• 18:23
  Marlins are just 9 and 18 at home and Gasser.
• 18:26
  This guy's only given up A1 earned run in 11 innings.
• 18:28
  Pitched in his first two career starts.
• 18:31
  Rogers. Meanwhile, 10.13 ERA in the
• 18:33
  month of May, he's given up twelve runs in 10.2 innings.
• 18:36
  So, hopefully, Milwaukee. Bounces back tonight.
• 18:39
  Gasser over Rogers? With some good, good numbers
• 18:42
  here. Keep on cruising.
• 18:44
  Let's see. Yeah.
• 18:45
  And I got Milwaukee. What did I say, -1. 35 -, 140.
• 18:49
  Next one up. The one dog that I'm hoping will
• 18:51
  bark. For us tonight.
• 18:52
  Atlanta Braves at the Chicago Cubs and I'm.
• 18:54
  Going with the cubbies, baby? Good.
• 18:56
  Sharp move here toward the Cubs as well as a.
• 18:58
  Huge. Rest first tired match system
• 19:01
  system. Advantage, I should say.
• 19:03
  Anyway, Atlanta comes into this one opening as around a -, 125
• 19:07
  -, 130. Road favorite?
• 19:09
  Now Atlanta's down to -120 -, 115.
• 19:12
  So lines going away from. Atlanta Toward.
• 19:14
  Chicago Chicago went from getting.
• 19:16
  Plus 115 now to like plus one O 5.
• 19:18
  You know, basically this game is inching down toward a pick em
• 19:22
  and that's. Notable because 60.
• 19:23
  Percent of bets are going Atlanta.
• 19:24
  Majority of the public bets here on the Braves better record.
• 19:27
  You know, World Series favorite. So if everyone's laying the
• 19:30
  short chalk with. Atlanta, why is line falling?
• 19:33
  Away from Atlanta toward. Chicago Well, we can deduce
• 19:36
  based on the percentages. And line movement that it's
• 19:38
  because respected money wiseguy money came in on the cubbies
• 19:42
  causing that line to fall in. Favor of Chicago now, good
• 19:46
  correlative betting here. Dog load total.
• 19:48
  We just talked about a favorite low total correlative now.
• 19:51
  Dog high total. So Cubs are a dog.
• 19:54
  The total is. 11 Anytime you see an. 11 at Wrigley Field you.
• 19:58
  Automatically know it's because winds blowing out that's the one
• 20:01
  stadium in particular where if. Winds blowing in, you'll see.
• 20:04
  A total of like 7. If it's blowing out, you know
• 20:06
  they get as high as like 11, but it's.
• 20:08
  Going to be 80° wind. Blowing out like 20 miles.
• 20:10
  Per hour now a tough one for me is it open 10, 1/2 up to 11 and
• 20:14
  they get to. 11 1/2 it is juiced up over, but more expected run
• 20:18
  scored. Basically leads to more
• 20:20
  variance. And more upset opportunities.
• 20:22
  But in particular I don't. Know if I mentioned the pitching
• 20:25
  match up, but Charlie Morton Three and one 3.52 ERA for.
• 20:28
  Atlanta against Javier Assad. Four and O 1.49 ERA.
• 20:33
  Assad in particular, this guy's been lights.
• 20:35
  Out hope I don't jinx him, but Assad has a. 0.55 ERA.
• 20:39
  In the month of May, he's only given up one run.
• 20:42
  Over 16.1 innings. Pitched his last start out.
• 20:46
  He went against the Braves. It was a 7 to one win by the.
• 20:49
  Cubs, he gave up zero. Runs in six innings.
• 20:52
  That same same start. Morton got lit up.
• 20:54
  For three runs and only three innings.
• 20:56
  Be at all up here guys. Publix on.
• 20:57
  Atlanta yet? The lines falling.
• 20:59
  Away from Atlanta toward Chicago.
• 21:01
  With a. Hot pitcher on the.
• 21:02
  Bump I'm going cubbies. Hopefully eke out a win here as
• 21:05
  a dog. Bark.
• 21:06
  Bark. Plus one O 5.
• 21:07
  Let's go Cubs last. MLB Bet of the Night.
• 21:11
  Baltimore Orioles, Saint Louis Cardinals.
• 21:14
  Now I didn't mention. This on the pod yesterday.
• 21:16
  I know my guy, Devin. Fernandez Cash was Saint Louis,
• 21:18
  but Saint Louis was pretty sharp last night.
• 21:21
  That was like a. Pick em game, they got all the
• 21:22
  way up to -120, they end up winning 6.
• 21:24
  To three, you know, So I should have just.
• 21:26
  Blindly, you know, followed that sharp.
• 21:27
  Movement with Saint Louis. I.
• 21:29
  Bet Saint Louis So many. Times it hadn't come through for
• 21:31
  me and Baltimore's. Got one of the best records as a
• 21:34
  dog, so I didn't play it. But my guy?
• 21:35
  Devin. Fernandez, who played Saint
• 21:37
  Louis. He DDM me earlier in the day.
• 21:40
  And said Hey St. Louis Sharp is a tack.
• 21:42
  And I'm like, Yup, they are. But Baltimore is a dog's really
• 21:44
  good too. So.
• 21:45
  Shout out to anyone who did. Cash with Saint Louis last?
• 21:47
  Night if you had the balls to take that one.
• 21:49
  But anyway, rematch. Tonight we have Baltimore.
• 21:53
  St. Louis.
• 21:53
  Kyle Bradish going for Baltimore.
• 21:56
  Kyle Bradish had a great year last.
• 21:57
  Year he was injured to start the year he's.
• 21:59
  O&O but a 2.63 ERA to start the year Cardinals are going with.
• 22:03
  Lance Lynn One and Two 4.17 ERA. We've seen a lot of steam on the
• 22:09
  O's Baby, Show Me Your O. Face I'm going Baltimore.
• 22:12
  Give me the O's. I got the.
• 22:14
  O's at -1. 50 now Baltimore. Opened some shops as low as -130
• 22:19
  -, 135, -, 140. Now you're all the way up to -1.
• 22:22
  50. So pretty good one way Steam in.
• 22:24
  Favor of Baltimore. Now the Orioles are getting. 86%
• 22:27
  of bets, 96% of money. So good.
• 22:30
  Low bets, higher dollars bet split in addition.
• 22:33
  To the big steam move. On Baltimore, really going to
• 22:35
  bank on the bats and obviously you had Sunny.
• 22:37
  Gray kind of limit Baltimore. Last night.
• 22:40
  But if you look at Baltimore's offense, they're hitting two.
• 22:42
  44. 69 homers nice 224 runs. Scored St.
• 22:47
  Louis hitting 232. 39 homers, 181 runs scored.
• 22:51
  So, hopefully the bats of Baltimore.
• 22:52
  Get to Lynn here for. Tonight a.
• 22:54
  Lot of system matches on Baltimore, very similar to kind
• 22:58
  of the Milwaukee system matches, but favorite off a loss.
• 23:02
  Winning team favorite off A. Loss.
• 23:04
  Pave off. A loss?
• 23:04
  Opponent off a win. Road favorites the.
• 23:07
  Big one here that I. Like, is that good favorite?
• 23:09
  Off a loss versus. Bad team 65% Seventeen percent
• 23:13
  ROI this year, but in particular the Orioles when they play a bad
• 23:16
  team. When they play.
• 23:18
  A team that missed the post season the previous year.
• 23:20
  Since the start of last. Year they're 63 and. 2671% With
• 23:25
  a 17%. ROI.
• 23:27
  Also, you look at Bradish, he's only made three.
• 23:29
  Starts this year. X Who's injured to start the
• 23:32
  year? But Baltimore's three and O in
• 23:33
  those? Games he's only given up. 4
• 23:35
  earned runs and 13.2 innings pitched.
• 23:37
  Meanwhile, Lance Lynn, 7. .36. ERA and three May starts.
• 23:41
  He's given up 12. Runs in 14 innings pitched.
• 23:44
  So you got it all up, guys. Good sharp.
• 23:46
  Steam to Baltimore, A. Lot of system matches.
• 23:48
  I'm going to go the OS here. Give me Baltimore.
• 23:50
  Shop around. I got Baltimore at -150, so 5.
• 23:55
  Pack here. Can we get three or more?
• 23:57
  Cleveland. Milwaukee.
• 23:58
  The Rays. The Cubs.
• 24:00
  And the Orioles? Now I will mention.
• 24:02
  Because obviously. As we're doing the pod, things
• 24:04
  can change. Things can happen.
• 24:05
  I just noticed I just. Got an alert that Carlos?
• 24:08
  Carrasco, I believe has been. Scratched for this game here
• 24:11
  tonight. Neck injury, he'll be.
• 24:12
  Going to the injury. List looks like Xavion Curry
• 24:15
  will start for the Guardians. Xavion Curry.
• 24:18
  Let's see he is. 25 years. Old he is.
• 24:21
  Let's see, he's only started one game.
• 24:24
  I'm looking at stats right now. He's in the area.
• 24:26
  Of 0.0. So if his game log and we pull
• 24:29
  that up, he went five innings, no runs against the Red Sox back
• 24:32
  in April. I'm looking at the line really
• 24:34
  hasn't moved at all. I'm still seeing Cleveland
• 24:36
  around -135. So I'm going to stick with
• 24:39
  Cleveland here, even though we have the pitching change.
• 24:40
  But. If you bet listed pitcher.
• 24:42
  And you're wondering. Why your Beck got voided.
• 24:45
  Looks like there's a late scratch of that, Guardians.
• 24:46
  Game, but I'm sticking with. Cleveland I'm sticking with
• 24:49
  Cleveland around -130 now some books -135 but.
• 24:53
  That about does it. For episode 48 of the All.
• 24:55
  Systems Go Sports Betting Podcast Powered by Rhythm.
• 24:58
  Now reminder, if you enjoy this podcast #1 thank you for tuning
• 25:03
  in. Thank you for listening.
• 25:04
  I've obviously I'm lucky enough to.
• 25:06
  Be the host of this. Pod and I always.
• 25:08
  Feel like, hey, I'm just, you know, chilling with my buds.
• 25:10
  Sitting around a virtual bar having a beer.
• 25:12
  Talking sharp line moves, but this pod is nothing without you
• 25:15
  guys listening in I. Love the community that we've
• 25:17
  created approaching games from a data.
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  Driven perspective, but if you could help me.
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  Please do one thing for me. Could you please?
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  Help me grow this podcast. Organically, I don't want to.
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  Pay for for ads. I don't want to, you know.
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  But really, one thing I'll. Ask of you, can you?
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  But it really mean a lot to. Grow this podcast.
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  Secondly. If you enjoy this pod.
• 26:00
  You've been introduced maybe? To a different style of.
• 26:02
  Betting. Not betting with your heart.
• 26:04
  Not betting with what you want or.
• 26:05
  Think or hope will happen, not betting based on your favoritism
• 26:09
  and your bias, but. Learning to read the market.
• 26:11
  Grinding again, it's ain't easy. Sports betting isn't easy and.
• 26:14
  It never, never has been. Never will be, but if we can
• 26:18
  continue to. Bet with.
• 26:19
  Our head and not our heart and act like Wall Street traders.
• 26:21
  Looking for smart money in the. Stock market.
• 26:24
  We're going to be OK long term. So if you've.
• 26:26
  Learned a thing or two about the pot.
• 26:27
  If you enjoy listening to the pot, if you want to become.
• 26:29
  A sharper data-driven better. And guess what?
• 26:32
  I wrote a book. It's called The Everything Guide
• 26:34
  to Sports Betting. Just go to Amazon.com.
• 26:36
  Type in the. Everything Guide to sports
• 26:38
  betting. Pick up a copy.
• 26:39
  For you or for a friend? It would mean a lot to me, guys.
• 26:41
  It's got everything I've learned.
• 26:42
  In the industry. How lines are set?
• 26:44
  How and why they? Move How to read line movement?
• 26:46
  How to locate? Sharp action How to place?
• 26:48
  A bet in person or online How to How to create a a bankroll
• 26:53
  management. Profile It's all included again
• 26:55
  as well as all chapters. On the major sports.
• 26:58
  So pick up a copy. It's only like. 1617 maybe 20
• 27:01
  bucks with shipping. And Jeff Bezos will will drop
• 27:04
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  Drop it on your front. Step the.
• 27:07
  Everything guide to sports betting, but pick one up for you
• 27:10
  or for a friend and. When I see at the book.
• 27:12
  I'm going to sign it for you. I'm.
• 27:13
  Going to buy you a beer? Or maybe I'll buy a ginger ale
• 27:16
  if you don't drink either way. But lastly, of course, have you
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• 27:30
  Josh. Under Score Insights, Remember
• 27:31
  Juice Reel? Does have a bet?
• 27:32
  On at Celtics and and Pacers side, we'll be sweating that
• 27:37
  over 2/22/21 and 1/2. But give it a shot.
• 27:41
  I think you're going to enjoy it.
• 27:42
  And I'm really, I'm really careful with who I kind of
• 27:45
  partner with and I only do it with, you know, basically apps
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  or. Companies that I believe in that
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  their goal is to. Help you win, not to take money
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  from you. But to help you make money,
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  which is what? Rhythm and Juice Reel really
• 27:55
  specialize in but anyway. Guys, that about does it.
• 27:58
  Another episode here in the books episode. 48 Whether I see
• 28:01
  you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin.
• 28:04
  River in Rhode Island. The brook in New Hampshire.
• 28:06
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut.
• 28:08
  At the encore in Boston. Or Plainridge Park.
• 28:10
  Casino R.E.M. Jim Springfield.
• 28:12
  In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts are out in the.
• 28:14
  Desert where the true grinders get down.
• 28:16
  Where Billy? Walters sends his number
• 28:18
  runners. Where the lowest use possible is
• 28:20
  found at the South. Point or sweating sharp
• 28:22
  contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool in Las Vegas
• 28:25
  at circa. Wherever it may be, you're going
• 28:27
  to walk up to me. You're going to show me a nice
• 28:29
  Guardians ticket from last night?
• 28:31
  But Yankees, Brewers. Come on.
• 28:32
  Man 4 to 1 lead in the 9th, 2:00 to 1:00 lead in the ninth.
• 28:35
  You blow it and lose both. Man, baseball, baseball.
• 28:39
  Been very. Very good to me.
• 28:40
  Baseball been rough to me. Sometimes I cannot get over the
• 28:43
  Yankees blowing a four to one lead at home in the 9th.
• 28:45
  But what are you going? To do nothing we can.
• 28:47
  Do to make it up now. We're just going to see we have
• 28:49
  a winning night tonight. And claw our way back.
• 28:51
  I wish you the best of luck. Everyone.
• 28:53
  Have a fantastic Tuesday. As always, stay sharp, stay
• 28:56
  contrarian. Bet against the.
• 28:58
  Public place. Yourself on the side.
• 28:59
  Of the house. Always be with.
• 29:00
  The smart money, never against it, will smart.
• 29:02
  Money won every time. Of course not.
• 29:04
  We beat some. Closing lines last night.
• 29:06
  Bullpens imploded for us. But here's the thing.
• 29:08
  Luck will come and go. But if we can consistently.
• 29:11
  Bet games based on our model and our blueprint, of course, is
• 29:14
  against the. Public with the House with the
• 29:16
  pros. Flat bet.
• 29:17
  Avoid. Parlays and get some closing.
• 29:19
  Line value if we can do that. We're going to be successful
• 29:21
  sports bettors, so enjoy the sweats here for tonight guys.
• 29:24
  Start of the Eastern. Conference finals, Celtics,
• 29:27
  Pacers. I don't care who wins and
• 29:28
  covers, but can you give? Me the over.
• 29:30
  And we'll be back at it tomorrow for episode 49.
• 29:33
  Of the all systems go. Sports Betting Podcast.
• 29:35
  Powered by Rhythm. Have a great night, everybody.
• 29:38
  Good luck.