Latest / CattleUSA Daily / 305: Drought Expansion, Spotty Rain Chances, and a Critical Spring Outlook with Gary Lezak

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305: Drought Expansion, Spotty Rain Chances, and a Critical Spring Outlook with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

• 0:00
  Once again, we are welcoming back to Gary Lezak on to the
• 0:03
  Cattle USA Daily podcast. Gary is here to give us the
• 0:06
  breakdown on everything we're seeing in the weather right now.
• 0:10
  He is going over what the LRC is showing right now and we have a
• 0:14
  big emphasis today on droughts. What is going on in the Midwest,
• 0:19
  in cattle country, across the West, across the Southern Plains
• 0:22
  right now with droughts, are they expanding?
• 0:24
  Are they shrinking? Are we going to get the
• 0:26
  moisture? I know so many of you are
• 0:28
  praying for across model country right now.
• 0:31
  Before we hop into today's episode with Gary where we talk
• 0:33
  about all of those things. If you are watching on YouTube,
• 0:36
  make sure you take a second to hit that subscribe button and
• 0:38
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• 0:41
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• 0:43
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• 0:45
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• 0:51
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  all of those things. It just helps us continue to
• 1:01
  reach more people within the cattle industry and make a wider
• 1:04
  impact across cattle men and cattle women throughout the
• 1:07
  entire United States. Thank you so much for being
• 1:09
  here. And without further ado, let's
• 1:11
  go ahead and hear from Gary Lezak.
• 1:17
  Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
• 1:20
  the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
• 1:23
  updates shaping agriculture today.
• 1:25
  I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
• 1:28
  agriculture, here to keep you informed and connected.
• 1:31
  Now let's dive into today's episode.
• 1:38
  Gary, welcome back to the podcast once again.
• 1:42
  How are you doing this lovely morning?
• 1:45
  Lauren, I'm doing fantastic. And when did you get back from
• 1:49
  Brazil? I got back like 5 days ago I.
• 1:54
  Think 6. Days ago something like.
• 1:56
  That was it nice to get back home or what was it like it?
• 1:59
  Was it was very nice to get back home.
• 2:02
  It was one of those trips that it was the perfect length of
• 2:05
  time. All in all, we were there for
• 2:07
  about 12 days and that was that was perfect.
• 2:11
  I was, I got home that last day and I was very happy to be home.
• 2:15
  But I was still had enough energy those final few days of
• 2:19
  the trip to still be able to enjoy it because, you know,
• 2:21
  sometimes times you take longer trips and you're like, those
• 2:23
  last few days, you're like, I don't even remember anything we
• 2:25
  did because I was just ready to be home the whole time.
• 2:27
  But I, I luckily it was the perfect amount of time.
• 2:30
  It was so much fun. I was telling you off camera, I
• 2:33
  was like, I feel like it was almost a fever dream.
• 2:35
  Like, did it even happen? It's doesn't even seem quite
• 2:38
  real that we were there and got to experience all of those
• 2:42
  things. But it was such a wonderful
• 2:44
  trip. That's awesome.
• 2:45
  Did it rain on your trip there? It did not.
• 2:48
  It was actually supposed to rain the entire time that we were
• 2:52
  there. And so I was stressing out
• 2:54
  because I had not planned for rain outfits the whole time we
• 2:58
  were in Brazil. And the weather in Brazil is
• 3:01
  very much like it is here in Kansas.
• 3:02
  If they're like it, it's all over the place.
• 3:05
  There's no predicting the weather here.
• 3:06
  It's it's going to be crazy. And especially when we're
• 3:09
  getting close to the Amazon rainforest, they're like, it
• 3:11
  could rain in the morning for a little bit, but then it'll be
• 3:13
  nice and 70° or 80° in the. Afternoon and you should have
• 3:18
  looked at the global predictor. I should have, Gary.
• 3:21
  I really should have because I shouldn't have packed my rain
• 3:24
  jacket. But I told everyone I was like,
• 3:26
  if we didn't pack our rain jackets, it would have dumped on
• 3:28
  us. Yeah.
• 3:30
  The pattern down in the Southern Hemisphere is actually going
• 3:33
  through. It's the beginning of the new
• 3:34
  LRC down there. So the pattern they're going to
• 3:37
  experience for the year ahead just set up like in the Northern
• 3:41
  Hemisphere, it sets up in October and November.
• 3:43
  In the Southern Hemisphere, in Brazil, it sets up in March and
• 3:48
  April, same thing. So they have a different LRC see
• 3:51
  down there. And So what had been a very wet
• 3:54
  pattern is evolving into whatever it's going to be this
• 3:57
  year. And we're identifying what that
• 3:59
  is. But it's amazing you went to the
• 4:00
  Amazon rainforest and didn't see rain.
• 4:03
  I know we all were flabbergasted ourselves, like we could not
• 4:07
  believe it. It was very humid.
• 4:10
  We did feel the moisture in the air, that's for darn sure.
• 4:13
  But it is. We were on the southern part of
• 4:15
  the Amazon rainforest, so we weren't like way up in it by any
• 4:19
  means or anything like that, but we were definitely still in it.
• 4:23
  And even the people and operations that we were
• 4:25
  visiting, they were like, it's kind of abnormal to have two
• 4:27
  days in a row where we don't have rain.
• 4:29
  So there were some parts. It was crazy.
• 4:32
  There were some parts that we visited that they get more rain
• 4:34
  in a day. Then we get the entire year in
• 4:37
  some parts of Kansas. So it was really fascinating to
• 4:41
  learn about Brazilian agriculture and Brazilian
• 4:43
  culture and everything else that kind of came along with.
• 4:47
  It was such a wonderful trip. Awesome.
• 4:49
  Welcome back. I am happy to be back back and
• 4:51
  I, I'm happy to have. It's crazy.
• 4:53
  You leave the country and it's a simple little things in life
• 4:56
  that you're grateful to have when you come back to America.
• 4:59
  Like I went and got an iced coffee when I landed in Dallas
• 5:03
  and I drank a crisp Diet Coke. I really enjoyed my bed for the
• 5:09
  first couple nights and I, yeah, it's just crazy the little
• 5:13
  things. Also, in Brazil you can't flush
• 5:14
  toilet paper, so I enjoyed flushing toilet paper when I
• 5:18
  came back to the States. Are you serious?
• 5:21
  You can't flush toilet paper. You cannot flush.
• 5:23
  Toilet. Is it a wall plumbing?
• 5:24
  Systems, Yeah. It's like their plumbing systems
• 5:27
  aren't built for toilet paper like you're supposed to.
• 5:30
  They have trash cans next to every bathroom, and you are to
• 5:34
  use the toilet paper and throw it in the trash can, which is so
• 5:37
  gross. It is.
• 5:37
  It was so gross. I did not enjoy it, but I did
• 5:41
  enjoy coming back to the States. And it's the little things in
• 5:44
  life, like being able to flush toilet paper, that I was like,
• 5:47
  I'm proud to be an American. That is an amazing right that
• 5:52
  you have here. Yes, it really is.
• 5:55
  Everyone better be grateful for it.
• 5:58
  I'm probably going to be thinking about that every time I
• 6:00
  go to the bathroom now. Yep, exactly, exactly.
• 6:04
  Be be grateful you can blush your toilet paper, ladies and
• 6:07
  gentlemen. That's all I've got to say.
• 6:08
  It's the little thing to like. That's crazy.
• 6:13
  Yes, it's been great. It's been great.
• 6:15
  How's life in Colorado been over the past few weeks, Gary?
• 6:18
  Colorado is continuing to be impacted by the drought.
• 6:22
  It's a serious D4 drought, which is the highest level of drought
• 6:27
  over an expanding area of Colorado.
• 6:29
  The ski areas are closing right and left.
• 6:32
  I think Vale already closed. Usually they're they're going to
• 6:35
  be open into May, but not this year.
• 6:37
  There's almost no snow left. The record Ridge I think is
• 6:40
  closing and possibly in the next day or two.
• 6:42
  I'm driving up there today. But the drought doesn't just
• 6:45
  extend across there. The drought picture, the
• 6:48
  footprint of the drought is increasing.
• 6:51
  So more than half of the nation is now dealing with dryness, 75%
• 6:57
  of the nation really and half the nation's in drought.
• 7:02
  So, and remember all I always say, if you've been listening to
• 7:05
  Cattle USA, do you like the way that rant?
• 7:08
  Listen to what I always say. If you listen to cattle, the
• 7:11
  drought is either expanding or it is shrinking.
• 7:15
  Last year it was shrinking steadily and we were able to
• 7:19
  make the right forecast. And have you plan for it looks
• 7:23
  like it's going to be a decent season ahead for corn and
• 7:26
  soybeans and for the cattle ranchers out there and out we
• 7:29
  out West in the weed areas, you need a good drink of water right
• 7:33
  now and there's is is been a struggle.
• 7:35
  It doesn't take much. So just the big picture, the
• 7:39
  drought footprint is increasing. The big core areas that are
• 7:42
  under pressure are very important for the cattle
• 7:44
  ranchers because the southern Plains, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas
• 7:48
  are the most impacted right now. The Central Plains into parts of
• 7:51
  the Midwest as well have some problems, especially Nebraska.
• 7:55
  So the warm winter is driving this with warmer air you have
• 7:59
  more evapotranspiration as you some of you probably know about
• 8:03
  wind plus the evaporation rates and the storm tracks is still
• 8:09
  missing some key area. So it's is a growing drought.
• 8:12
  That's my concern. So for for the cattle country,
• 8:16
  again, worsening conditions right now over parts of Kansas,
• 8:19
  but there is rain in the forecast in the next 10 days.
• 8:22
  So we're going to test it out. It only takes about 1/2 inch of
• 8:26
  water for the for the wheat. And I drove across Kansas a
• 8:31
  couple weeks ago and the wheat looked like it was starting to
• 8:33
  do well. So it needs a good drink of
• 8:35
  water, not too much, but there's no major freezes showing up.
• 8:39
  So that's good news as we go to the end of the season.
• 8:42
  But the snow drought also leads to big risk for fires in the
• 8:47
  mountains of the Rockies in Colorado having a big problem.
• 8:50
  And and then areas out West in California, they have the Kern
• 8:56
  River that comes down is the snow has also been lost, but
• 9:01
  they're going to get hit by some storm systems out West.
• 9:03
  So in the next 10 days. So maybe it'll add a little bit
• 9:06
  to the snowpack and help out with that region.
• 9:08
  So that's my drought update. Yes, I know there's so many
• 9:13
  people across the Midwest, across cattle country right now
• 9:15
  that are praying for rain. I was in western Kansas
• 9:20
  yesterday and we desperately need rain here in the state, all
• 9:24
  across the state. We need it here in the Flint
• 9:26
  Hills. We need it here in western
• 9:27
  Kansas. We need it everywhere right now.
• 9:29
  And I think especially as we saw over 1,000,000 acres of of
• 9:34
  cattle country burned over the past couple months too.
• 9:36
  We're looking at a lot of places right now.
• 9:38
  Like we've got a lot of grass ground that needs to be made-up
• 9:41
  with some moisture right now. And I know it's a really big
• 9:44
  concern for a lot of ranchers as we go into the next few months
• 9:47
  and the next few months are so vital for summer grass.
• 9:51
  And just kind of your thoughts, Gary, on that expanding drought
• 9:54
  areas, the shrinking drought areas as we look at Nebraska,
• 9:58
  Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Colorado, those areas, what are
• 10:01
  we kind of seeing? I know you're because one of the
• 10:04
  key things you always say is droughts are either growing or
• 10:07
  they're shrinking. And So what are we kind of
• 10:09
  seeing across the predictions for there?
• 10:12
  Yeah. The there's decision windows for
• 10:14
  ranchers, so you have stalking decisions and feed planning and
• 10:18
  grazing time and stuff like that.
• 10:19
  I'm learning more and more and more about you guys.
• 10:21
  If rain misses you, conditions can deteriorate fast.
• 10:25
  If rain hits you buy time and flexibility.
• 10:28
  So the next 10-15 days are important because I'm seeing
• 10:30
  rain chances over a good part of Kansas, eastern Kansas, western
• 10:35
  Missouri, a much better chance of two 3-4 inches of rain.
• 10:40
  And then back to the West West of Salina Haze, you know, out
• 10:44
  West, less of a chance. So we'll just have to see.
• 10:48
  So it'll be more hit and miss, but if you get hit, you get an
• 10:51
  inch of rain out West too, and that would be significant.
• 10:54
  So something to monitor in the next 10-15 days.
• 10:57
  We do have this potential. We're going into the rainy
• 11:00
  season anyway. Late April and May are the going
• 11:03
  to be the wetter months for Kansas and Nebraska.
• 11:06
  Just remember the weather pattern is cycling regularly and
• 11:09
  it's cycling this year about 10:50 weeks, the same pattern we
• 11:14
  had last fall, this winter and now this spring, it's the still
• 11:18
  the same pattern. And so a lot of the same things
• 11:22
  keep happening. Areas get missed, areas get hit.
• 11:26
  So the ones that are beginning missed have consistently had
• 11:30
  missed. That's what's been happening.
• 11:32
  So the pattern is on schedule. This next chance of rain is
• 11:36
  right on schedule. And then May and June are going
• 11:39
  to be interesting. And then we're still very
• 11:41
  concerned about August major heat wave, but the first half of
• 11:46
  June, could it heat up and then have significant severe weather.
• 11:50
  So we're going to have the volatility continuing.
• 11:53
  So just know drought is expanding right now.
• 11:56
  The southern plays are under the most stress right now.
• 11:59
  The western areas have the snowpack problem and rain is
• 12:04
  coming, but not for everyone. I wish it was for everyone,
• 12:07
  Lauren. Don't we all?
• 12:08
  Don't we all? You kind of mentioned severe
• 12:10
  weather outlooks as well. What are your thoughts as we
• 12:13
  continue to look out in the next few months as far as severe
• 12:17
  weather goes? What are we kind of need to be
• 12:19
  keeping our eye on as far as all of that is concerned?
• 12:22
  Yeah, at the Storm Chaser Summit in Denver, Co, I made a really
• 12:27
  bold prediction in front of everyone predicting a
• 12:30
  significant severe weather episode that would happen around
• 12:34
  mid to late March into early April.
• 12:36
  And it happened in early April. And we had a tornado in Oklahoma
• 12:40
  City. It was not a large tornado
• 12:43
  because it was targeting Moore. OK, so when I saw that you guys,
• 12:49
  Moore has had some big tornadoes, but it was a real
• 12:51
  small tornado, thank goodness. Still some minor damage, no
• 12:53
  fatalities. That is good news, but that was
• 12:57
  part of the pattern. We have about four to five other
• 13:00
  parts of the pattern that are going to produce significant
• 13:02
  severe weather. So we may still end up with some
• 13:05
  significant severe weather in the Plains.
• 13:07
  One of those risks, in fact, two of those risks are due within
• 13:11
  the next 10 days. So next week is a week we have
• 13:15
  to watch very closely late this weekend and the next week for
• 13:19
  the potential for some significant severe weather.
• 13:21
  And with the severe weather, that means there's a hail risk,
• 13:24
  OK. And so some young plants, if
• 13:27
  there's hail could damage them significantly.
• 13:29
  So as you start your planting season, we'll be monitoring
• 13:33
  that. But there's definitely are some
• 13:34
  risks showing up here in the next 10 days.
• 13:36
  Yeah. Definitely something we want to
• 13:38
  continue to keep our eyes on as we go into the rest of spring
• 13:44
  and finish out March Madness because boy oh boy, March was a
• 13:49
  little mad. I tell you what.
• 13:51
  We came into April and things have calmed down significantly
• 13:56
  here across the plains, but it's still so high and low.
• 14:00
  I was talking to people the other day and I was like, what
• 14:03
  I'm praying for right now is just a true spring.
• 14:05
  Like I would like just a couple weeks of 60-70 degrees, 50 to
• 14:11
  like 70°. We don't need any crazy heat
• 14:13
  waves yet. We don't need any crazy low lows
• 14:16
  like but highs in the 60s and 70s just for a couple of weeks
• 14:20
  because it feels like we're going straight from winter to
• 14:24
  summer back and forth. Lauren, we already had summer.
• 14:27
  It was in the 90s and March. So March was March was wild, but
• 14:34
  we're going to have spring. We're having spring.
• 14:36
  In fact, it snowed just yesterday in southern Iowa, in
• 14:41
  northern Missouri. I mean, there was a Kirksville
• 14:44
  had snow. Omaha had one to two inches of
• 14:46
  snow. So don't give me this.
• 14:47
  We're going straight to summer. It just snow.
• 14:50
  It's actually, but then it's going to be 90° the next.
• 14:53
  I know it's the the, the winter winter has been battling, you
• 14:58
  know, boom, boom, boom, like, right jabs on spring and almost
• 15:03
  knocked spring out. And then and then spring went
• 15:06
  boom boom boom. And summer said, hey, watch me,
• 15:08
  I'm going to get into this fight too.
• 15:10
  So spring and winter do battle. Summer almost won, but summer's
• 15:14
  now going to take a backseat for a while, OK?
• 15:17
  That's great to hear. I love to hear that.
• 15:19
  I'm trying to trying to enjoy the weather while we've got it
• 15:22
  and all of the things as far as that concern is concerned.
• 15:25
  But Gary, any other like key indicators or things that we
• 15:27
  need to like look at as far as the next few months of weather
• 15:31
  are concerned or just as we continue to go into summer?
• 15:33
  I know one of our major things we're watching is that summer
• 15:36
  heat wave that's going to be coming around.
• 15:37
  But anything else that you're kind of keeping your finger on
• 15:41
  the pulse on right now? Well, next week we'll get the
• 15:43
  timing on that heat wave again. I'm going to do some a big
• 15:45
  analysis of that something that's going to be a concern for
• 15:49
  the heat stress on the cattle and other issues that come with
• 15:53
  a heat problem. But just just know that I'll be
• 15:56
  I'll be working on that. I want to thank everyone out in
• 15:59
  cattle USA country. Want to thank everyone out
• 16:02
  there. A lot of you've been getting our
• 16:05
  our tool and it's it's a, you know, our weather 2020 vision
• 16:10
  dashboard where you can actually look a whole year ahead.
• 16:13
  It's accurate through September, but it'll be fun to look at
• 16:16
  October to January, February. Oh, Nino, the warming of the
• 16:20
  tropical Pacific Ocean is coming.
• 16:23
  That'll be discussed in our weather reports.
• 16:25
  The next one will be coming up this Saturday.
• 16:27
  So that's on our Weather 2020 Intelligence Report.
• 16:31
  But thank you for following for the past year because I think a
• 16:35
  lot of you are realizing we have something special that we're
• 16:38
  sharing with you. You were in on a secret.
• 16:41
  The weather pattern is cycling and our tool predicts what's
• 16:43
  going to happen and it allows you to prepare time to prepare.
• 16:47
  Yeah, it absolutely does. And I think if the last year has
• 16:50
  proved anything to all of us, it's the Gary most of the time
• 16:54
  knows what he's talking about. I'm not going to say all the
• 16:58
  time, Gary. Because. 99.9% of the time Gary
• 17:04
  knows what the hell he sounds. Like 70%.
• 17:07
  But no, exactly like you go back to our podcast a year ago, Gary,
• 17:10
  and we were talking about things months in advance to when they
• 17:14
  were happening. And it's just really fun to be
• 17:17
  in on the secret, I tell you what.
• 17:19
  Yeah, we predicted last year's lack of a drought and this year
• 17:22
  there's a concern. So what is our prediction?
• 17:25
  Well, you all have to pay attention to these reports.
• 17:26
  We'll talk about it next week. Yeah, for sure.
• 17:29
  Well, Gary, as always, thank you for your time today.
• 17:31
  Thank you for your knowledge, for giving us some insight on
• 17:34
  the best cap secret in the world right now, which is weather
• 17:39
  2020. But to to all of our listeners,
• 17:42
  if you are interested in anything Gary talked about today
• 17:45
  or you just want to follow along with Gary and what he is doing
• 17:48
  in the world, make sure you check out the show notes down
• 17:50
  below. And I've got everything linked
• 17:52
  down below for you guys, as always.
• 17:54
  And Gary, thank you once again for your time.
• 17:56
  To all of you listeners. We will see you all next time on
• 17:58
  another episode of the Cattle USA Daily Podcast.
• 18:00
  Have a good one y'all.