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Third Crime's The Charm · Pod Save America

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: On today's pod, Ron DeSantis' reset isn't off to a
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: great start. Republican candidates are climbing the polls in New Hampshire.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden's campaign fires its first shots. And later, Mueller
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: investigation prosecutor Andrew Weissman joins to break down our top story.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Third time's a charm, Dan. Donald Trump is likely to
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: be indicted again at any moment by a grand jury
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: in Washington, D.C. for his most serious crime yet. a
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: plot to overturn the results of the 2020 election that
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: ended in a deadly insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Trump
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: truthed the news that he received a letter from special
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: counsel Jack Smith on Sunday night, informing him that he's
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: a target of the January 6th investigation and has four
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: days to decide whether he wants to testify before the
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: grand jury, which Trump accurately said, quote, almost always means
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: an arrest and indictment. The letter has been confirmed by
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: multiple news outlets and reportedly mentions three federal statutes, quote,
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: a conspiracy to commit offense or to defraud the United States,
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: deprivation of rights under color of law, and tampering with
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: a witness, victim, or an informant. We also got a
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: big hint about what's to come thanks to some trenchant
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: analysis of Jack Smith's lunch break from our friends at CNN.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Let's listen.
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: Jack Smith going to Subway today is a message to
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump. Donald Trump tries to intimidate people. He tries
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: to bully people. He tries to scare you away. That
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: was Jack Smith with no words and a simple $ 5
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: sub in his hand saying, I'm here, I'm not going anywhere.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, the imagery was intentional and spoke volumes.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: He did go with the tuna, which was an odd choice,
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: which makes us think that perhaps he's going to file
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: a superseding indictment if he had gone with just a
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: plain Italian sub. Maybe there would have been other charges
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: that we haven't considered.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: Was it really the tuna? Have you confirmed that? Because
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: if it was the tuna, you know what that tells me?
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: He's about to reel in a big fish.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Oh, Dan. You ruined everything. Here's the thing. John King
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: and Dana Bash are two of the best political analysts
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: on CNN and on cable television, which just goes to
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: show you that It's cable news. Being on cable news
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: for 24 hours a day, you just end up saying
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: crazy shit like that.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Well, there's not 24 hours of news, even when the
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: former president of the United States is about to be
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: indicted for the third time in five months.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you put me on cable news all day,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: I'd probably start talking about Subway sandwiches too. All right,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: let's move quickly since Jack Smith is waiting for us
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: to finish the pod before announcing the indictment, as he
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: did last time and all the times before that.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: What does your calendar look like after this? Did you
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: block it out?
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: It is very open. I will tell you that. Yeah.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I will be prepping for offline tomorrow, but it is
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a big block that just says, here comes the indictment news.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Because the last time this happened, I was getting in
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: my car to drive to a meeting and I turned
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: right around. So this afternoon is free and clear.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, good. All right. So we're going to hear from
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: a real lawyer shortly, but What else do we know
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: about these potential charges that didn't just come from a
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: guy's subway order?
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: Well, a lot of this is very familiar because two
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: of the three charges, the obstruction of an official proceeding
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: and the conspiracy to defraud, are the two that were
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: recommended by the January 6th committee. The use of this
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: civil rights charge that has gotten a lot of attention
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: from a lot of very real legal experts as this
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: novel legal theory, this law from the post-Reconstruction period, was
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: not in the January 6th thing. And I learned this
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: from reading tweets, but also from talking to Andrew Weissman,
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: you heard it was. That's a very normal charge. There
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: is nothing unusual about that. It very much is completely
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: in line with what Donald Trump did. And we should not,
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: as Weissman says to me, his friends in the legal
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: community are overthinking this dramatically. And it is a very
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: There's nothing unusual about it. It makes complete sense. It's
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: perfectly in line with the evidence that we have seen
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: for this thing. So I think people are overreacting that
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: they should not.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: A few other things. We also know that in March
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: of 22, federal judge found that both Trump and lawyer
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: John Eastman had likely committed felonies that included obstructing the
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: work of Congress and conspiring to defraud the United States.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So we have had a judge weigh in on what
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: some of these charges may be already. And it does
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: seem that the fake electors scheme is at the heart
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: of what the charges may be, also pressuring Mike Pence
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: to overturn the election, which are both connected, of course, right?
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: So if you try to get a bunch of people
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: to sign documents that say that they're the rightful electors
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: for the presidential election, even though they are not, and
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: then you submit those to Congress, and then you tell
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: your vice president to obstruct the proceeding of what Congress
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: was trying to do on January 6th, you can't do that.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: That's against the law. We've already had one judge say that.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: And we also have now testimony we know from reports
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: from Mike Pence, Mark Meadows, who knows quite a bit,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: and Trump has been reportedly worried about, has flipped, Giuliani.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: Jack Smith has been calling secretaries of state and governors
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: in the fake elector states, the states that submitted fake electors.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: So It doesn't look too good.
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, the fake electors thing is wild. We just
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: kind of keep saying, we've been saying it for two
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: years now. It's just fake electors. He had fake electors.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: And it's sort of been lost for obvious reasons compared
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: to the images of people storming the Capitol. And those
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: are the prosecutions we've seen about the people who stormed
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: the Capitol and committed violence. But the fact that we
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: have a political process in this country where electors are
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: chosen and the Republicans didn't like who they were going
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: to vote for because of what the popular vote says.
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: So they just went and got a bunch of people
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: to pretend to be electors and then tried to submit
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: that to the state legislature is a wild cockamamie, complete
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: bananas scheme. I mean, it's insane. And this was engineered
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: based on what we know from January 6th committee from
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: the white house, from the president and his advisors. It's insane.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: And we don't, this is one of those things that
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: we just don't focus enough on because it's so fucking crazy.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: I think we don't focus enough on it because, um,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: you know, Mike Pence ultimately refused, but if Mike Pence
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: did have the courage to do the right thing in
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's words, um, it basically that Mike Pence would
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: have sat there and said, Hey, uh, I know that
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: the votes came in and there are electors for Joe
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Biden because he won and all the lawsuits failed and
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff. But you know what? We
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: have a bunch of States that actually say Donald Trump
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: won based on absolutely nothing. and here are the electors,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: and we're just going to swear in Donald Trump instead.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: That's what would have happened. And there was no judge
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: in the country that said that that was correct. I mean,
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: of course that's wrong. But I also think the insurrection
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: at the Capitol may have overshadowed that.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I understand why that is, but because
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: of that fact, I think we've just been sleeping on
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: This other insane crime that actually came closer to succeeding
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: than the violence itself.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and I also think it's interesting that the one
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: law that was not mentioned is like incitement to insurrection.
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Some people, and that was one charge that the January
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: 6th committee, I believe, recommended and some legal analysts thought
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: that Jack Smith might, but he did not. Well, at
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: least if the letter is correct and there's no surprises,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: if it ends up that Jack Smith does not charge
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: him with incitement to insurrection- I wonder if it's just
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: because that is a more difficult charge to prove than
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: this fake elector scheme, which does seem like a much
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: easier charge to prove.
• 8:13
  Speaker 2: Our friend Norm– I understand why– we obviously want every
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: book in the library thrown at Trump because he deserves
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: it and that's how we feel. But our old friend
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: Norm Eisen, the legal analyst who worked up in Congress
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: for some of these– for one of the Trump impeachments,
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: did this Twitter thread where he went through what Trump
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: could be sentenced to if he was convicted under the
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: charges in the letter. And he will spend the rest
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: of his life in jail. It is a long time.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: And so whether we get all the charges we want
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: or all the ones that have been talked about on
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: legal Twitter or not, what matters is the charges that
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: Jack Smith can prove and convict Trump of.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So Trump's first televised response to the news came during
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a withering line of hard-hitting questions from Sean Hannity during
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: a Fox News town hall in Iowa Tuesday night. Let's listen.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: You look well. You look healthy. Feel good.
• 8:57
  Speaker 4: Feel good.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: Let me ask you just a basic fundamental question. You
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: have all of these never-ending attacks. And you released on
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: Truth Social earlier today that they now, that you are
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: a target of this January 6 grand jury. My first
• 9:18
  Speaker 5: question to you is, It doesn't seem to bother you
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: like I think it would bother so many other people.
• 9:25
  Speaker 5: What is it about you that it doesn't?
• 9:27
  Speaker 6: No, it bothers me. It bothers me for everybody in
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: this incredible sold-out audience. And it bothers you. I got
• 9:35
  Speaker 6: the letter on Sunday night. Think of it. I don't
• 9:38
  Speaker 6: think they've ever sent a letter on Sunday night. And
• 9:40
  Speaker 6: they're in a rush because they want interference with the election.
• 9:44
  Speaker 6: It's election interference. Never been done like this in the
• 9:47
  Speaker 6: history of of our country, and it's a disgrace. What's
• 9:50
  Speaker 6: happening to our country, whether it's the borders or the
• 9:53
  Speaker 6: elections or kinds of things like this, where the DOJ
• 9:57
  Speaker 6: has become a weapon for the Democrats, an absolute weapon.
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: And you know what?
• 10:02
  Speaker 6: Until I got indicted, until I got indicted, I had
• 10:06
  Speaker 6: such respect for the office of the president.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it showed. I just can't believe they would do
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: that on a Sunday night when everyone knows that Donald
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Trump spends Sunday in church and then after he leaves church,
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: He spends the rest of the day in thoughtful prayer
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: because it is the Lord's Day. And to interrupt that
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: with a letter saying that he's the target of investigation,
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: it's just beyond the pale.
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's never happened before for a good reason because
• 10:32
  Speaker 2: we have norms in this society. Right at the Sunday scaries.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: That's a real Sunday scaries for Donald Trump. I will
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: give him that. I just love Sean Hannity like, You've
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: been charged with a bunch of crimes, including trying to
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: steal an election and overthrow the government. How are you feeling?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: You okay? How are you doing?
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: I haven't gone back and researched this, but you and
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: I have been doing this podcast together for so long
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: that we've done... I mean, we've podcasted about Trump handing
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: you town halls probably like 10 times.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, probably.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: And I'm pretty sure the first question's almost always the same.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: How do you do it?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Isn't that.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Why are you so awesome? How are you so strong?
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: Is it distracting to look in the mirror and see
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: someone so handsome?
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Which, by the way, too many clips to play here,
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if you saw the Megyn Kelly
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: thing from this week where she said that she ran
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: into Trump after the Turning Points USA conference and they
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: made up because, of course, they had a little tiff
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: after the first debate when Donald Trump started yelling at
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: her and accusing her of being on her period. A
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: thing that happened that we have erased for a memory.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: A thing that happened, a thing that is common with
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: presidential candidates on stage engaging with the moderator. That's usually
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: an accusation that's thrown around. And Megyn Kelly was like,
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: you know what? I saw him. We decided it was
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: water under the bridge. And he looks great. He eats
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: cheeseburgers and fries and he just looks so great. I
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: want those genes. I want to know what he's doing.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: I want those genes. Like, you are so fucking gross.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: This man demeaned you on national television and now you're like, God,
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: he looks good. I'm on the Trump train again. I
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: am there. It is like... So per usual... Trump gets
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a big round of applause for his crimes on the
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Hannity Town Hall. Hannity and the rest of the right-wing media,
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Megyn Kelly, all of them, they've been sticking with their
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: talking points about, you know, two-tiered system of justice. Same
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: with the Republicans in Congress. Kevin McCarthy was out there,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: you know, saying this is horrible. I can't believe this.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: This only happened because Donald Trump's poll numbers are up
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: and he's beaten Joe Biden. And this is why this happened.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: This is the same Kevin McCarthy that after January 6th
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: said that what Trump did was un-American, right? He's now
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: changed his tune, of course. I don't think we need
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: yet another conversation about how this third indictment will probably
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: strengthen Trump's political standing with his biggest fans. But do
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: you think it could be more politically damaging than the
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: last two indictments with the rest of the electorate, or same?
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: I think when it comes to Trump, everything is only
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: operating on the margins. Like, are there some potential... small
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: handful of swingish voters who are going to be disturbed
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: by the fact that the president is facing criminal charges
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: for trying to violently overturn the election?
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: Sure.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: I want to live in a world where that is
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: the case. But we just sort of know that everything
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: operates in this very narrow band. Where I think this
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: indictment is more problematic, it's not necessarily for Trump himself.
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: It's not good for him. I just want to stipulate
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: it is not good for him.
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: And it is not going to be helpful. What a take.
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: But I think it's for the rest of the Republican Party.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: How Trump handles his documents is not really going to
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: affect other Republicans. What Trump did with Stormy Daniels eight
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: years ago is not really going to affect other Republicans.
• 14:10
  Speaker 2: January 6th and the big lie we know from 2022
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: is an anvil around the Republican Party's neck. There was
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: a study– we've talked about this before, but there was
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: a study from some researchers at Stanford that showed that
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: candidates in 2022 who believed in the big lie and
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: pushed the big lie did– just about three points worse
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: than other Republicans. And that's the difference. And so if
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump, if let's say that Donald Trump is indicted,
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: this trial either starts or is sort of running up
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: to starting and it's dominating the news. And Donald Trump
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: was once again centering January 6th, the 2020 election. He's
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: forced to say that he's continuing to push the big lie.
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: That's going to hurt all Republicans. That's actually more damaging.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: And so I think and it'll be probably incumbent upon
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: all of us as we head into next year. And
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: we're talking about this is to hold all Republicans accountable
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: to this, not just Donald Trump.
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Well, and that, that might be easier. Um, thanks to, uh,
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump and Kevin McCarthy. I don't know if you
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: saw the news this morning that, um.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: Did I see the news in playbook? Come on now,
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: you know, my morning routine.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: I was, I guess I was speaking to the audience.
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: We know they're not everyone. Yeah. We read playbooks so
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: they don't have to. Um, No, so this is what happened.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: You remember a couple weeks ago we talked about Trump
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: was pretty angry when Kevin McCarthy went on a television
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: show and said that he didn't know if Trump was
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: the strongest candidate. And then Trump demanded an endorsement from McCarthy.
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: McCarthy said, I'll give you the endorsement at some point,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: but not now. Trump said, that's not good enough. So
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: Kevin said, OK, well, what I'll do is I'll promise
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: you that I will hold a vote before the August
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: recess in the House. to try to expunge both of
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: your impeachments from the record, which is not really a
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: thing you can do. He was already impeached. It's like
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: in the congressional record it's happening. But anyway, but that's
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: what Donald Trump wanted. So now Kevin is faced with
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: a bit of a conundrum because he has told Donald
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: Trump that he will bring this vote to the floor,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: but all the Republican House members sitting in Biden districts
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: do not want to be sitting there voting to expunge
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's impeachment over January 6th Right at the time
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: when Donald Trump is being charged with a conspiracy to
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: defraud the United States over his behavior on January 6th.
• 16:28
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: And leading up to it.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: There's probably not a majority of Republicans who would vote
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: for that. So he would fail.
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: So he would fail and then it would damage Republicans,
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: just like you're saying. Yes.
• 16:37
  Speaker 7: Yes.
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: I will say there is a line that the Vin
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Diesel character, Dom Toretto, in the Fast and Furious movie says,
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: which is, I live my life a quarter mile at
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: a time. And that's how Kevin McCarthy operates. That's a
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: great line of movie. It's a terrible approach for a
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: house speaker. It's just like, how can I get out
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: of this conversation? I'm not going to think for one
• 16:56
  Speaker 2: second about what happens after that. Obviously, if Kevin McCarthy
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: had paused while Donald Trump was yelling at him and
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: thought about it, he would have known that would be
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: an abject fucking disaster. But that's just not how he thinks.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: It's just like, wake up the next day and deal
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: with it then. And so he'll have yet another crisis
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: that is going to make his life even harder.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I'll say one more thing, which is, you know, I
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: think in 2022, big lie candidates didn't do well in
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: large part because the Democrats made it an issue from
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden on down, paid advertising, all the rest. I
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: also think the January 6th committee did a fantastic job.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: And we all had questions at the beginning, having seen
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: two impeachment hearings and the political effects of those hearings,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: which were minimal, whether the January 6th hearings would have
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: any effect. And I don't think they sort of like
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: changed public opinion in a huge way. But I do
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: think you could say that the hearings worked. You know,
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: in June of 2022, according to Quinnipiac, 46% of Americans
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: believe that Trump had committed a crime over the 2020 election,
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: 47% disagreed. In July, after the hearings, 48% thought he
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: committed a crime, 44% didn't. So again, not a huge shift,
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: but a meaningful shift on the margins when the margins
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: matter a lot. So I do think that if we
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: are hearing news all about January 6th for the next
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: several months through the election, it could damage him on
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: the margins. Any other takeaways from the Hannity Town Hall?
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Sort of a mess. I know that you weren't able
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: to join the Discord, but we had a great time
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: on the Discord. Crooked.com slash friends. Everyone subscribe, but it
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: was really fun.
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I am sad I missed it. I had to
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: watch the town hall later on YouTube at 1.5 speed.
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: And the real vibe.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: That was better.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: The real vibe that a Hannity Trump interview gives off
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: is someone interviewing their boss. He seems just very worried
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: about getting fired. at any minute there.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: You know, I was watching and I'm like, because I
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: don't watch a ton of Fox, I watch the clips
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: that we talk about on the show. But you watch
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: that and you're like, oh, yeah, this is why Republican
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: voters who only consume right wing media haven't turned on Trump. Like,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: it's just stuff. It's just a feel good, safe space
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: for Donald Trump and Republicans. And, you know, you get
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: the you get Hannity's town hall and you get the
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: commercial break and you get a few You got ads
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: for prostate medication, a couple of MyPillow ads, a couple
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: other ads for old people, some gold. And it is
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: just conspiracy after conspiracy. The other thing I would say
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: is like you really, it was the kind of town
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: hall where you had to have a PhD in MAGA
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: to understand all of the various conspiracies and references. And
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: it made me think that Trump was actually, I thought
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Trump was more on his game in terms of like
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: message discipline during the CNN town hall than he was
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: with Hannity, because when he's come in and one of
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: the subscribers in the discord made this point that when
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: he's combative with an interviewer, he can sometimes like go
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: to and you could tell because that was like his
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: first big event after his launch, his first televised event
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: or first televised sit down interview. that his handlers were
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: all like, okay, you got to be on message, bring
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: it back to issues and stuff like that. And this
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: one with Hannity, he's talking about like Peter Strzok and
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Lisa Page and the lovers and Hunter and Burisma. And
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: he's just doing all the MAGA conspiracies. And I don't
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: think he, like, I think if a general electorate had
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: watched the Hannity town hall, it would not be very
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: good for Trump.
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Fox has become.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Really since they had their collapse after the 2020 election,
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: it has become more dangerous in terms of radicalizing its
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: current viewers. And I think somewhat less potent at infecting
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: the larger conversation because they became so nervous about losing
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: fans that it's become fan service.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Yeah. We're not trying to bring anyone new in. The
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: town hall was Trump fan service. That's exactly right. Yeah.
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: So Trump isn't the only one to get in trouble
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: for his attempted coup this week. Michigan's attorney general charged
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: 16 fake electors with signing fraudulent certificates that claim Trump
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: won the state in 2020. The group includes an RNC member,
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: a mayor, a former co-chair of the Michigan Republican Party,
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: all of whom face eight felony counts, each related to
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: forgery and election fraud. What do you make of these charges?
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: Big deal? Do we think other states with Democratic AGs
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: or non-MAGA AGs where there were fake electors will follow?
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: They should.
• 21:32
  Speaker 7: They should.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: The history here is a little interesting, which is originally
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: Dana Nessel, who's the Attorney General of Michigan, decided that
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: she was not going to investigate this. She ended her
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: investigation because she thought it was more of a matter
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: for the federal government. But then the federal government didn't investigate,
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: so she opened it up again. But when she announced
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: she was stopping the investigation, sort of handing it to
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: the feds, she said, these people have to be held
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: accountable because if they are not, this is going to
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: happen again. It's basically an open invitation for a similar scheme.
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: And so this is right. This is why what the
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: indictment we're all waiting for on Trump matters. It's why
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: what's happening in Michigan matters is there has to be mentioned.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: This is an, as we said earlier, this is an
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: insane thing people tried to do. It is the, I
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: know we joke about norms, but they try to steal
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: an election. They try to do it brazenly and openly.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: They try to do it through loopholes and procedures. They
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: try to do it through fraud. They try to do
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: it through violence and people have to be held accountable
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: because if they're not, we're just gonna do this again
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: and again and again. And sort of the things that
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: hold our society together in, in, especially when all of
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: our elections are incredibly close, are going to fall apart
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: in a way. We sort of have one shot to
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: walk back from the brink, and this is it.
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: And, you know, the excuse from some of these electors
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: and other Republicans is like, now you're criminalizing free speech.
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: These are just people who thought the election went a
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: different way and wanted to lodge a protest. And it's like,
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: that's not what happened. And then there was somebody who's like,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: I just signed a sheet in a meeting. I thought
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: it was an attendance sheet. It's like, no, no, no, no.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: There's all these texts that they have where they were like,
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: we got to keep quiet about this, where the law
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: says that we're supposed to show up in the Michigan
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: state capitol, but we're going to show up in the
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Republican state headquarters instead. But don't tell anyone. And all
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: these texts being like, keep quiet about this. They all
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: knew what they were fucking doing. Yeah.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: No one's criminalizing. You know who criminalizes things? The people
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: who wrote the laws you broke.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: And there were a couple of fake electors who didn't
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: show up who decided not to participate because they knew
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: it was against the law. I guess that there's obviously
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: there's an investigation in Georgia over this that we know.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: And there's also now an investigation in Arizona now that
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: there's a new attorney general there. So I think those
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: two states, the way the law is written in those
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: two states, you could see similar charges in those two
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: states as well. I think for some reason in Pennsylvania,
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I don't think they went as far as they did
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: in Michigan. They're fake electors and some of the other states.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: But I think Arizona and Georgia are the next ones
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: to watch out for. And these are all on state level.
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: We also know that Jack Smith, And the special counsel's
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: office has been talking to the people involved in fake
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: elector schemes and others in some of these states, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: So it could be wrapped up into the federal case
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: as well.
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: And likely to be part of whatever charges, of the
• 24:11
  Speaker 2: charges Trump is going to face. This will probably be
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: a piece of supporting evidence for that, his.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: Role in that. Yeah, which is why these are so important.
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: So there's apparently a Republican presidential primary still happening, though
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: the candidates are once again finding it impossible to break
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: through with anything other than whatever they're saying about the
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: frontrunner's third indictment. And they can't seem to find anything
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: to say about that. The guy that's beating them has
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: been indicted three times, facing just dozens of felony charges.
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: And they are just, their tongues are tied. Ron DeSantis
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: certainly learned that lesson after CNN cut away from his
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: first big boy interview with Jake Tapper. After he answered
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: a question about Trump, let's listen.
• 25:02
  Speaker 8: If Jack Smith has evidence of criminality, should Donald Trump
• 25:07
  Speaker 8: be held accountable?
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: So here's the problem.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: This country is going down the road of criminalizing political differences.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: And I think that's wrong.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Criminalizing political differences. He does later say in that clip
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: that he wants to be focused on the future. And
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: that's also part of the problem here. He wants to
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: be focused on the future. And his first reaction to
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: the Trump target letter A couple of days ago, he
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: was at some event and a reporter asked him. He said, well,
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: he could have done more on that day to sort
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: of stop what was going on on January 6th, but
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: it wasn't criminal. It wasn't criminal. What do you think
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: about that? It's really taking advantage of his opponent's imminent arrest, huh?
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: He just has no idea what he's doing. Look, to
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: be fair, I'm not going to do this often, but
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: to be fair, all these Republicans are in a terrible situation,
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: which is the voters they need love Trump, They don't
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: think he did anything wrong. The only way to get
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: attention is to talk about Trump. And so you can
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: either amplify his message and help Trump or to say
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: something negative about him, which would be the morally correct
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: thing to do, but then we'll just make the voters
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: like you less. So you would have to be a
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: very nimble, very talented communicator to navigate those straits. And
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: that's not how my boy Tiny T is doing here.
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Well, on that note, in a clip that CNN aired
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Much later in Jake's show, because they had to cut
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: in with all the indictment news and the Michigan fake
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: elector news, DeSantis was asked why his campaign sucks so badly.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: Here's what he said.
• 26:35
  Speaker 8: Some of your supporters are disappointed that your campaign has
• 26:38
  Speaker 8: yet to catch fire the way they would want in
• 26:40
  Speaker 8: terms of polling. One Republican pollster, one who is sympathetic
• 26:44
  Speaker 8: to you, I was asking her about your campaign, and
• 26:46
  Speaker 8: she said she thought the issue was you bumped up
• 26:49
  Speaker 8: at the beginning because voters, Republican voters, saw you as
• 26:52
  Speaker 8: a more electable conservative like Trump, like.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Trump without the baggage.
• 26:56
  Speaker 8: But then they say, as you go further and further
• 26:58
  Speaker 8: to the right on some of these divisive social issues
• 27:01
  Speaker 8: that could alienate moderates, suburban moms, etc., Republican voters see
• 27:05
  Speaker 8: you as less and less electable. What do you say
• 27:08
  Speaker 8: to that analysis?
• 27:09
  Speaker 7: Well, I don't think it's true.
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, the proof is in the pudding. Quick question.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: If your opponent recently ran an ad about your penchant
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: for eating pudding with your fingers, might you try to
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: avoid that word in an answer about why your campaign
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: is failing?
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I just think that this is sort of the example
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: of why Ron DeSantis is not excelling, which is a
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: truly talented politician would take a weakness and make it
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: into a strength. Lean into the pudding thing. Do for
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: pudding what Mitt Romney has done for hot dogs. Americans
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: love pudding. It's a popular thing. Be a normal American
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: who loves pudding. Just go with it.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Hang a lantern on your problems.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: Just say you're going to serve free pudding in the
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: White House. They're going to be your jelly beans. Just
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: make it a thing.
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: I just want to know, what do we think happened here?
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: Do we think Someone that online didn't know about the
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: pudding finger stuff. Is it possible that like his staff
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: was too afraid to tell him, hey, there's an ad
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: about pudding and in your fingers and pudding, and maybe
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: you should stay away from, hey, just reminder before you
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: go on to do this interview, this series of interviews,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: no pudding mentions. You don't want to, you want to
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: stay away from the pudding stuff.
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: I think you're overcomplicating this. I think it's pretty simple.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: He's hungry. He loves pudding. He's hungry. What are you
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: going to do?
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: You think he had a pudding cup after the interview?
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: You think they would say, they say, good job on
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: your first big boy interview with a real journalist. You
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: get a pudding cup. No, no spoons, no spoons. Just
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: how you like it.
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: I think that there is a eager, slightly fascistic Ron
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: DeSantis staffer who waits outside the door with a pudding cup.
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: That's all I could think about was just to get
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: his pudding. Can we just make one point about this
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: pollster who talked to Jake Tapper? That is nonsense. That
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: is a non, that is, there is, that is just
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: absolute nonsense political argument. Do you think these people who all,
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: who love Donald, 70% of them love Donald Trump, 70%
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: of them who want to cannot like Donald Trump are like, well,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: I was for Ron to say, and his, but he's
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: become too extreme on abortion. Yeah, no, that's, that is,
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: that is bad. That is DC pundit brain analysis.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: It's certainly what happened with him in the general electorate.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: He's got like very high name ID now among all
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: voters and, and is seen as almost as extreme as
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Trump among all voters. So that certainly hurt him with
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: the general electorate. But you're right. In the Republican primary,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: there's zero evidence that it hurt him with Republican voters.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: What happened in the Republican primary or what's happening in
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: the Republican primary is people liked the idea of a
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: potential Trump alternative who was Trump without the baggage. Instead,
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: they got DeSantis. And there was a great line for
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Helen Lewis in The Atlantic. He promised to run as
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Trump without the baggage. Instead, he's running as Trump minus jokes.
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Which I mean, it was interesting because I thought he
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: would pick a fight with Jake. He didn't pick a
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: fight with Jake because I thought that, you know, he
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: would like Get the base riled up by picking a
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: fight and then say, I took on the fake news
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: media and my enemies are your enemies. And that's sort
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: of like what he does best. Use that word loosely.
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: But he was pretty he was boring and bullshitty at
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: the same time during that interview. And like you could
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: tell that he's actually somewhat smart in the sense that
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: he was smart enough not to say anything in that
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: interview that might like piss off any Republican voter. And
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: so he just danced around every answer and just used
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: it was a lot of word salad. But it was
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: just it came off as so boring. It seemed like
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the kind of interview you do when like a bunch
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: of rich Republican donors who aren't super MAGA, who do
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: like watch a lot of news and probably don't just
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: watch Fox, but also watch CNN was like, oh, you know,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: he's got to seem more electable again. He's got to
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: seem more normal. Let's put him. You got to put
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: him on CNN. You got to. do some real interviews
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: where he can show off his policy chops and show
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: that he's a steadier than Donald Trump. And it seems
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: like it was like that kind of idea, but it's,
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: if it were Trump and Trump was in this position,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: Trump would have picked a fight with Jake. And then
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: Trump would have gone out and said, I picked a
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: fight with the fake news media and he would have
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: made it a whole thing. And he would have got
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the base revved up. And Ron DeSantis, it totally seems
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: like a rich donor, which is the only kind of
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: donor Ron DeSantis has. If you look at the FEC reports,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: a rich donor kind of strategy.
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: And, He did an interview on the Third Place Network,
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: which has a fraction of their smaller audience, involves Republicans
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: with no plan. I actually never thought he was going
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: to pick a fight with Jake. Ron DeSantis is a coward,
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: and there's not a chance. He only fights when he
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: already owns the power dynamic, like from the podium to
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: yell at a reporter. There's no chance he's sitting across
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: from Jake Tapper and going after him. Maybe they had
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: that idea, but he was never going to pull that
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: off or even try. He was too scared.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I think he's a coward. I just thought maybe he
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: would be desperate enough at this point because he's doing
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: so poorly. I feel like you're ready to try anything.
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: I guess we're not in the I'll try anything stage
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: of the Ron DeSantis campaign, but I'm guessing we'll get there.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: He should be there. He just doesn't know that yet.
• 32:08
  Speaker 6: Right.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: All right, so... We got a debate qualifying poll out
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: of New Hampshire this week from UNH. Trump is in
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: the lead at 37%, which is down five points from
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: their April poll. DeSantis has gained one point. He's at 23%.
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: Tim Scott has gained two points. He's at 8%. Chris
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: Christie has gained five points. He's at 6%. My boy
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Doug Burgum's at 5%. Vivek Ramaswamy's at 5%. Nikki Haley's
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: at 5%. And Mike Pence, finishing up a big week
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: with one whole percent. from Mike Pence, former vice president
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: of the United States. Plenty to talk about with this poll.
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: What do you make of the overall trend, which has
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: Trump down and a few other candidates up?
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: It kind of speaks to exactly how Trump is going
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: to win this, which is it's too big a field
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: without a singular compelling alternative. So Trump goes down five
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: points and that five points gets distributed pretty equally among
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: five candidates. And that's just not a formula. There is
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: not anyone there who as of yet has demonstrated the
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: ability to be the vessel for some form of anti-Trump vote,
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: which is if that were to go to one person,
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: there is theoretically in the math enough people to win.
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: But right now, this is 2016 all over again with
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: an even lesser group of candidates.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: How? How did it happen that we are reliving 2016 again?
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: I think I've actually been thinking about this because one
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: of the numbers in those polls is basically that almost
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: all of Trump's voters have fully committed and they're not
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: going to change their mind.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: And I think we're- Like 75% of the voters in
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: that poll have said that their minds are made up.
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: They're definitely voting for Trump, which gives him around a
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: base of 30%.
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: Which is, that's a number he's going to win with
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: in a field this size easily. I think we've been
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: thinking about that, or maybe I have been thinking about
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: this wrong. Let's say Donald Trump, let's say this is
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: 2019 and all these people challenge Donald Trump. We would
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: see him as the overwhelming, almost certain favorite. He is
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: not just a regular presidential candidate. He is the incumbent
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: Republican president running in a primary. And so like that
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: is just like we would just think about it different.
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: I think we have to alter our minds that for
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: these voters, he is their president. And to move away
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: from their president for some other Republican is going to
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: take something really, really compelling either about the other person
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: or something devastating about Trump. And it's hard to imagine
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: other things happening.
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: Like what? Like he incited an insurrection?
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: Well, it's got to be devastating to them, right? That's
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: not devastating to.
• 34:36
  Speaker 7: Them, right? Yeah.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: I mean, we are so close to the, I could
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: shoot someone on Fifth Avenue.
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: Oh, we're so far past that. You know what's worse
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: than shooting someone on Fifth Avenue? Everything he's done. I mean,
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: it's not even close.
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: I know. I don't know. You know, I had a
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: little hope at the beginning of this process. Like, maybe
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: one of these jokers is charismatic enough to knock him out.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't see it. I don't see it.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I don't see it. I'd love to be wrong. I'd
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: love to be wrong, but I do not see it
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: at this point.
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Look, we should just stipulate that anything can happen. Like,
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: Trump could legitimately go to jail.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: He could drop dead. Either way.
• 35:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he could go to jail. And that might have
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: a moderate impact on the race. But we have put
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: the world, especially Republicans, have put their hopes into Ron
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: DeSantis as this person. And I wrote about this in
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: Message Box today. But if you kind of look at it,
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis is probably toast. It's probably over already.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: It's just.
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: He doesn't have it. You don't need a lot of it,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: but whatever it is, he doesn't have it.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: He does not have. He does not have.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: There have been candidates who have started with a ton
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: of buzz. They've sparked in the polls. The big money
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: donors love them. They have a great fundraising quarter, and
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: they fall flat on their face as soon as voters
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: see them. Every once in a while, one of those
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: candidates comes back. I sort of did in my message
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: box post today. I sort of looked at this. The
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: examples of the people who come back are– particularly talented communicators.
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: Because once you fall flat in the polls, people stop
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: giving you money. People stop giving you money. The only
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: way you can communicate is in the free media, either
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: on social, cable interviews, speeches. John McCain's the example. John
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: McCain's campaign collapsed. He ran out of money. He had
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: to fire all the staff. And he bounced back because
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: John McCain is a historically great communicator. Ron DeSantis, just
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: look at that Jake Tapper interview. There's nothing there that
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: would say, without a gazillion dollars in ads to tell
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: his story, he's going to be able to do it
• 36:32
  Speaker 2: on his own. I mean, Like I said, is a
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: comeback in the possible range of outcomes for Ron DeSantis?
• 36:38
  Speaker 7: Sure.
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: But it's so much less likely than anyone is talking about.
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: If you just look at the history of candidates and
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis' performance to date.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: And I really think the field and the number of
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: candidates in the field is an even bigger deal than
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: each one of their abilities individually right now. Because if
• 36:59
  Speaker 1: you got to Iowa and New Hampshire and there were
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: only two or three people in the field Donald Trump,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: I could see a scenario where Trump gets taken down.
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: Because I do think there are enough Republicans in the electorate,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: in the Republican electorate, who they all like Trump, but
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: are willing to consider an alternative, right? So it's there.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: And I think we'll see Trump come down in some
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: of these polls. We'll see some of these candidates rise,
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: just like we did in 2016. And we'll see all that.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Someone will have a surge and all that stuff. But
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: at the end of the day, if you've got this
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: base of 30% that are with you ride or die
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: like Trump does, and you have a big field, they're
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: just going to split the vote. That's the only– the
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: math is the math.
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: And there's one other element to that I think it's worth.
• 37:46
  Speaker 2: It's not just that he has 30% ride or die.
• 37:48
  Speaker 2: It's that 80% of all of the voters still like him.
• 37:53
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: So it's easy to, if you're not, if you like
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump, but you have some concerns, it's easy to
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: fall right back to the person you voted for in 2020.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: If there's not something, some incredibly compelling reason to walk
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: away and no one's offering that compelling reason to walk
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: away and there's no obvious vessel for that.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: You know who might be that vessel? Doug. Because Doug Burgum.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: He is headed to the debate stage. He has bought
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: his way onto the debate stage.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: Did he qualify on the donor thing?
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: He announced on Hugh Hewitt's show that he qualified. So
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: it's not official yet, but he thinks he qualified.
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: Did you tune in specifically for Doug or was it
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: part of your regular listening to Hugh Hewitt?
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: No.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: As you know, Tommy and Ben are the big Hugh
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: Hewitt fans, so I just got the news from them. Okay, good. So, yeah, no,
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: he just bought his way there. He handed out $ 20
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: gift cards to everyone in exchange for a $ 1 donation
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: to get him on the stage, and now we're going
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: to get Doug, and now he's at 5%. So he's
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: spending a lot of money, and that's where the 5%
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: comes from. Mike Pence... Let's just talk about Mike Pence
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: for a second. Mike Pence has not had a week
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: this bad since... The first week of January in 2021.
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: At least people cared about him back then. Now he
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: can walk down the street in New Hampshire and no
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: one even wave at him. No one cares.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: He's at 1%. He has not qualified for the debate
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: stage yet. He may not.
• 39:20
  Speaker 5: Imagine that.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: The former vice president of the United States may not
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: qualify for the debate stage. Maybe he'll get there at
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: the end, but so far he hasn't. Like, I don't know.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: What do you do if you're Mike Pence? I think
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: he could be like the one of the first to
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: drop out. Because usually the first to drop out is
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: not some like no name no one cares about because
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: they have nothing to lose and they're just sort of
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: in it for fun. But like Mike Pence is the
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: type of candidate where the name ID is high enough
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and his position was high enough that like, If you're
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: not gaining steam by the fall and you're at 1%
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: and he raised $ 1. 5 million less, what are you doing?
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: Well, that would suggest a capacity for self-awareness and shame,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: which someone who took the job does not have. I'm
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: not saying Ron DeSantis is going to drop out, but
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: he is the sort of candidate who does because they
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: have a future, theoretically, in their own minds where it's like,
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: I'm going to stop embarrassing myself. I'm going to get out.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: I'm going to endorse Trump now. and I'm going to
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: live to fight again in 2028 or whatever. But Mike Pence,
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: what does he have?
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: Nothing. He's just sitting there. He was at Dunkin' Donuts
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: this morning or yesterday. There's a video on Twitter of
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: him getting interviewed by his local Boston channel at Dunkin' Donuts.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: He's like, one look at me and you can tell
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: I'm a fan of Dunkin' Donuts. It's not just the coffee. Yeah, man,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: you look like a fan of Dunkin' Donuts. Yeah, that's
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: First of all, people don't call it Dunkin' Donuts anymore.
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Second of all, this is your second time there. He
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: is wild.
• 40:53
  Speaker 7: It's sad.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: It is sad. It's sad. Poor Mike Pence of Hang
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: Mike Pence fame. Let's talk about Tim Scott. Tim Scott
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: is now in third in New Hampshire. Just as the
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: New York Times reported that he's got a super PAC
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: reserving $ 40 million in advertising across New Hampshire, Iowa, and
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: South Carolina. The DeSantis campaign's leaked strategy memo from last week.
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: mentions Tim Scott as a potential threat. Do we owe
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: an apology to Cricket's biggest Tim Scott fan, John Lovett?
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: We could. We could.
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: Every time I, ever since 2016, every time I take
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: a particularly strong position on something, I just mentally prepare
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: myself for having it rubbed in my face for the
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: next seven to 10 years. And I had that thought
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: after you and I were talking to Tim Miller and
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: I just heckled all of you, but particularly Lovett for
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: the Tim Scott thing. So I think the most likely
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: scenario is he is a nominee and next president of
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: the United States.
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I think this money and just his candidacy in general,
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: like he'll have enough staying power to, you know, help
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: throw the nomination to Donald Trump as the rest of
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: them are and, you know, hope he gets VP. And
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: I think that's like a, that's a possibility. Trump has
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: said nice things about him. He hasn't attacked him. Now
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: he keeps going up in the polls and starts nipping
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: at Trump's heels. Maybe Trump will, you know, turn on
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: him like he does everyone else. But you could see
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: him as a VP pick. I could see that. You know,
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: DeSantis wanted to be Trump without the baggage. And I
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: think Tim Scott is DeSantis without the douchebaggery. That's Tim Scott.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: People like him. You know, people like him. They think
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: he's charismatic. He's got a good story. But like, he
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: is not what the Republican Party wants. He is not
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: what the Republican electorate wants. A small sliver of the
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: Republican electorate that is like, probably college educated again, some
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: rich donors who aren't too MAGA. That's why he has
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: all the money. They want to believe in a Tim
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Scott candidacy because they want to believe that they still
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: exist in the Republican party of 2008 or 2012. And
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: that is not the Republican party anymore. And so I
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: could see Tim Scott taking some of the DeSantis vote.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: I could see him taking some of the other non-Trump vote,
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: maybe even a few Trump voters, but he's not, he's
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: just not going to get the nomination.
• 42:57
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: No, I, Even arguing that anyone other than Donald Trump
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: has more than a 4% chance of getting the nomination
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: is an absurd proposition at this point. Is there a
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: world in which he could win? It seems hard to imagine,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: but sure, $ 40 million is a lot.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: And I would say the other thing- It could be
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: the world where Trump does go to jail or drop dead.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: I guess that is the- It.
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: Would take an extreme change in circumstance. If it is
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: not Donald Trump, who is it going to be? And
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: once you get to that part of the question, Tim
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: Scott is not a crazy answer. Like, Ron DeSantis doesn't
• 43:34
  Speaker 2: seem that awesome. Look at the rest. Like, what is
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Nikki Haley offering? Once you get to that second part,
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: almost anything is possible. There are a few things that
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: are not possible, but Tim Scott is at least, I think,
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: a possibility in a world where Donald Trump is not
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: the nominee.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I just don't know if he's Trumpy enough for
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: the base. They just want, you know, they love the
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: fighting and Tim Scott's not a fighter.
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: We're having, and it's an absurd hypothetical because we're getting
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: to the point where something has happened to Donald Trump
• 44:02
  Speaker 2: in some way, shape or form where he's not the nominee.
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: And so who knows, that would obviously change the entire
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: political environment, right?
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Right, because then your favorite Glenn Youngkin gets in.
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. Well, that's the other point is that
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: this is all in a world. There are three parts
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: to this. Donald Trump's a nominee. Glenn Youngkin decides not
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: to run. And then maybe it's Tim Scott. But yeah.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I will say our friend Peter Hamby at Puck wrote
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: a piece about called like the Tim Scott fantasy about
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: like why the Tim Scott thing's not going to happen.
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: He sent it to me. He's like, wrote this one
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: for Tim Scott fan Dan Pfeiffer. And I was like,
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: did you not? It's love it.
• 44:36
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: Hamby had you pegged for the Tim Scott fan. It's
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: a great piece. You should all read it. But yeah, no,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: it's a tough one to see happening. But I do
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: think he'll continue. I think he'll have staying power and
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: I think he'll continue to like rise in the polls
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: and like have his surge. I just, you know, like
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: we've talked.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: He's one of those candidates who will be able to,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: he will have money to run ads, but he will
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: also be able to get free media and communicate without
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: just ads.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Yeah, because he's a good communicator. Finally, one group of
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: people happily watching this week's Republican shit show unfold are
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: the folks on Joe Biden's campaign. They took their first
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: official shot at Donald Trump with a statement from the
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: campaign that they gave to Politico about his, quote, softball
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: town hall with Hannity and his failure to create manufacturing
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: jobs in Wisconsin, where the RNC will be held a
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: year from now. They also responded to Ron DeSantis' CNN
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: interview with a statement mocking him for admitting that not
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: everyone really knows what wokeness is. And Joe Biden himself
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: tweeted out a video made by the DNC of Marjorie
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: Taylor Greene making a pretty great case for re-electing the president.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: Let's listen.
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: Joe Biden had the largest public investment in social infrastructure
• 45:44
  Speaker 4: and environmental programs that is actually finishing what FDR started,
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: that LBJ expanded on, and Joe Biden is attempting to
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: complete programs to address education, medical care, urban problems, rural poverty, transportation, Medicare, Medicaid,
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: labor unions, and he still is working on it.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: That was not AI. That was not a deepfake. That
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: was Marjorie Taylor Greene just giving the Biden campaign content
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: for one of the better ads that I've heard. The
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: music behind it was just that that was the cherry
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: on top. Good job, DNC, on that. That was very,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: very good. What do you make of the campaign strategy,
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: the messages that they've chosen so far, and the timing
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: of both the campaign putting out statements about Trump and DeSantis,
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: and then, of course, the Biden retweeting the MTG ad?
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: I think.
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: Let's have some fun here. Let's get punchy, get aggressive.
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: It's all good. It'll fire up our people. It just
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: made me cringe as a former.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: Political operative. When you said the safe took their first
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: shot at Donald Trump by issuing a statement to Politico,
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: like almost threw up in my mouth.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: And honestly, I should, I, I, I just committed some
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: plagiarism there. That was, that was from the Politico story.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: I should have said that. I don't talk like that.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: That was a line from the Politico story.
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: That also, that also, that's the, that stuff is, I think.
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: like downstream from the larger strategy of what Joe Biden
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: should exactly be doing, which is using all the absurdities
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: of the Republican party to make his broader case against
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: mega extremism, regardless of who the nominee is, Donald Trump,
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, et cetera. I think the video
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: was worth focusing on because it is the, essentially the
• 47:28
  Speaker 2: platonic ideal of what digital communication should be, where you are,
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: it is very, very, there's always this huge tension between
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: the things you want to tell voters and In the
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: things that can actually break through in this media environment, right?
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: It's why it's so hard for Joe Biden to tell
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: voters about all the things he did to make the
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: economy better because no one ever covers that. They don't
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: tweet about it. They don't write about it. It doesn't
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: go viral. And so you can go viral by doing
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: a bunch of things, but those things are usually at
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: least– They're not counter to your strategy, but they're adjacent
• 48:00
  Speaker 2: to it. It's sort of a reality for reality's sake.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: So if you can find a moment where you can
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: get a video to go viral or a piece of
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: content to go viral that has your exact message you
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: want to tell voters, that's what you want. And so
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: they should hang that up. They should show that on
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: the first day of press secretary school at the Democratic Party.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: That is how you do it.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: I think it had 40 million views as of last
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: night when I checked. Probably has more now. Do you
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: think it's worth putting money behind that, making it an ad?
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: Not really.
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: Maybe.
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, it sort of depends on what you want
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: to do with it. Are you going to put it
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: on actual television? Most people will look at that and
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: not know who Marjorie Taylor Greene is.
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: I was wondering what her name ID is nationally.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: It's not just name ID. To be able to get it,
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: to fully get the impact of that, you have to...
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: kind of recognize her, because the idea that you don't
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: know the ad's coming if you're just watching TV, so
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: you may not see her name written there. So now
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: you just hear a blonde woman talking about Joe Biden.
• 49:03
  Speaker 2: It's kind of a tricky ad to do, as currently constructed,
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: but you could boost it on YouTube or on some
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: other social platforms. This is why it's perfect. You don't
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: have to, because everyone is sharing it on their own,
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: so it's free.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: That's true. I might take out an ad buy in
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: Georgia and get another news cycle out of it. Yeah,
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you wanted to. Or just run it
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: in her district. Just her district.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, there would be some small ad buys
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: for the purposes of free press and additional virality you
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: could do. But in terms of like as a pure...
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: Probably not where I would spend millions of dollars on it.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: The long campaign tradition since we were kids of putting
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: out statements, issuing statements from the campaign, I don't think
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: that's going to get you very far. But I was
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: interested in sort of the substance of both statements because
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: I think it speaks to everything done in a campaign
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: or a lot of things like that done intentionally in
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: a campaign or strategic. And it was interesting they chose Wisconsin.
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Interesting that they chose an economic message about Donald Trump's
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: broken promises to Wisconsin, said he was going to create
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: a bunch of manufacturing jobs, did not, hasn't gone to Wisconsin,
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: was part of the statement about Donald Trump. This all
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: happens when, you know, we saw a poll, a good,
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: decent poll out of Wisconsin the other week that has
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: Biden leading Trump in Wisconsin. And it just speaks to
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: what I think is, you know, they're going to, one
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: of the messages that they are going to deploy against
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump is that um, you know, he, he promised
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: you a great economy and he ended up screwing you. Um, and,
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: and Joe Biden is working hard to make your life better,
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: which I think is interesting. And then they hit on
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: DeSantis is they're going to, they're not going to be
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: afraid of calling out the extreme culture warship, which I
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: think is interesting. And of course, left unsaid during both
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: in both of those statements was anything about the indictment,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: which he, you know, Joe Biden's not commenting on and
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: he can't. Yeah, there was a New York Times story
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: about it today.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they cannot.
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: Oh, really?
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there was a New York Times story that says,
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: Like Biden will poke fun at MAGA Republicans, but never
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: mission documents. Like no shit. Of course he cannot do it.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: He will not do it. He cannot do it. It
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: would be just, could you just imagine the amount of
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: pearl clutching that would happen in Washington DC? If like
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: the deputy press secretary in the Biden Oklahoma office tweeted
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: about it, like people would freak the fuck out about it.
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: Well, I guess, well, we should all be ready because
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: some field organizer somewhere is going to do it. Or
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: someone who like once sat, once has sat in a
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: meeting at the DNC is going to do it and
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: calls themselves like a, a Biden delegate for something that's good.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a Biden, you know, a Biden, somebody who put
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: Biden advisor in their threads profile or something.
• 51:40
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: Or just like a fake bot is going to do it.
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: Who's like, like it's going to happen, but you know,
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: it doesn't come from Joe Biden. Then that's that. But yeah,
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: you can't, you can't do that.
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: One thing that I think is interesting is I have
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: seen some research for that was done by some pretty
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: smart democratic folks about the power of the broken promise message.
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: and that it actually does matter, that Trump promised all
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: these specific things for specific communities and then did not deliver,
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: and that there are some. So it is, I take
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: real note of the fact that that is showing up
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: in Biden communications this stage.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Two interesting pieces of data from this week. We got
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: a Monmouth poll showing Biden's approval creeping up to 44%.
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: Quinnipiac poll showing him beating Trump 49 to 44%. Just noise,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: or do you think there are potential reasons the president's
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: prospects may be improving?
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: It's not noise in the sense that it's just random
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: statistical fluctuation, but any movement in the polls at this
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: point is noise. Like if Biden could go up two
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: this month, four months later, he could be up seven,
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: two months after that, he could be back to up two.
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: It doesn't really matter. What I think is notable, and
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: you mentioned this in the Tuesday pod, is that how
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: people are feeling about the economy is changing. Consumer confidence
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: is at its highest level in a couple of years.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: That usually... is a leading indicator of where the polling
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: is going to go. It front runs the economic approval
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: in the polling, in the political polling. And so I
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: think it's very possible that Biden's maybe getting a little
• 53:10
  Speaker 2: bit of a boost because people are feeling better about
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: the economy. And that kind of makes sense because he's
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: had some low hanging fruit with Democrats to get back
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: in some of these polls.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's right. And I also think we're
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: seeing a couple of these polls, Trump has his like
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: lowest approval recorded in some of these polls. And so
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: It's possible that these indictments are not helping him with
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: the general electorate and that the more people see of
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: Trump and are reminded of Trump because now he's in
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: their faces a lot more, they're remembering why they did
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: not like him very much in the first place. So
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: that's something to watch. Okay, before we head to break,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: a few housekeeping notes. If you're in the L.A. area,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: Tommy will be joining Lydia Kiesling, the author of Crooked's
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: first novel, Mobility, for a special launch at Dynasty Typewriter
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: on July 27th. It's free. and you can learn more
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: at cricket.com slash events. Mobility is a coming-of-age novel about
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: navigating a world of corporate greed that's both laugh-out-loud funny
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: and politically insightful. If you listen to this pod, this
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: book is in your wheelhouse. Mobility will be released August 1st.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: Pre-order now wherever books are sold. Also, for a quick
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: and punchy take on the state of our world, look
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: no further than Cricket Media's What A Day podcast. In
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: just a few minutes, you'll be up to speed on
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: the day's top news stories, as well as stories that
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: may have gone under your radar. New episodes are out
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: every weekday. Subscribe to What A Day Now wherever you
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: get your podcasts. When we come back, Dan talks to
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Andrew Weissman.
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: Well, everyone on Twitter is once again pretending to be
• 54:51
  Speaker 2: a legal expert. We brought on an actual one to
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: join us on today's pod. Joining us now is MSNBC
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: legal analyst and a former member of Robert Mueller's team
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: that investigated Donald Trump, Andrew Weissman. Andrew also co-hosts the
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: MSNBC podcast, Prosecuting Donald Trump, where he and veteran prosecutor
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: Mary McCord discuss the cases against Donald Trump. Andrew, welcome
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: back to the pod. Nice to be here.
• 55:13
  Speaker 7: Okay.
• 55:14
  Speaker 2: We've done this a couple of times now with Donald
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: Trump's various indictments. On the last one, his second indictment.
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: The indictment came only a few days after Trump received
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: his target letter. According to the former president, he received
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: that target letter on Sunday night. What's your best guess
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: on if and when we will find out about an
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: indictment on Trump?
• 55:37
  Speaker 7: Sure. I think that the biggest thing that I'm looking
• 55:40
  Speaker 7: for is some reporting, some indication that his defense team
• 55:47
  Speaker 7: has gone into the Department of Justice to be heard
• 55:51
  Speaker 7: as to why he should not be charged. We had
• 55:54
  Speaker 7: that reporting in the Alvin Bragg Manhattan criminal case. We
• 55:58
  Speaker 7: had that reporting in the Mar-a-Lago documents case. In fact,
• 56:03
  Speaker 7: we saw the defense team go out, leave the Department
• 56:07
  Speaker 7: of Justice, if you remember those images. And we don't
• 56:10
  Speaker 7: have any reporting of that having happened here. It is
• 56:15
  Speaker 7: really standard practice for the department to give the defense
• 56:19
  Speaker 7: an opportunity to be heard. I don't think they'll probably
• 56:22
  Speaker 7: say anything that the prosecutors haven't thought of already, but
• 56:27
  Speaker 7: you never know. And you also, just a matter of politeness,
• 56:30
  Speaker 7: you give them that opportunity because there may be something
• 56:33
  Speaker 7: that they say that causes you to rethink something. So
• 56:37
  Speaker 7: we don't have that yet. And to me, that is
• 56:41
  Speaker 7: the piece that I'm waiting for. Other than that, if
• 56:44
  Speaker 7: that were not the case, then all signs are that
• 56:49
  Speaker 7: this could happen anytime after today, because the former president
• 56:54
  Speaker 7: had said he was given till today to decide whether
• 56:56
  Speaker 7: to go into the grand jury essentially or not. Obviously,
• 56:58
  Speaker 7: he's not going to go into the grand jury. He
• 57:01
  Speaker 7: didn't testify to the E. Jean Carroll case. He didn't
• 57:03
  Speaker 7: come in and talk to us in the Mueller investigation.
• 57:06
  Speaker 7: there's no way that he is going to go into
• 57:08
  Speaker 7: the grand jury and testify. And it would be malpractice
• 57:11
  Speaker 7: for his defense counsel to not throw their bodies in
• 57:13
  Speaker 7: front of that if he wanted to.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: In the classified documents case, did the meeting with Trump's
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: attorneys happen before the target letter was sent?
• 57:22
  Speaker 7: You know, we don't, I think the answer to that
• 57:26
  Speaker 7: is no. I think it happened afterwards. And I also
• 57:31
  Speaker 7: think that there was a pretty significant gap between what
• 57:37
  Speaker 7: we understand to be the time of the target letter
• 57:40
  Speaker 7: and the time of the charges. I think by significant,
• 57:43
  Speaker 7: I mean, it was more than a few days. I
• 57:45
  Speaker 7: think it was a couple of weeks where there was
• 57:48
  Speaker 7: that gap. I'm not saying that that, I'm not sure
• 57:50
  Speaker 7: that's a data point to say that will happen here.
• 57:53
  Speaker 7: You know, Jack Smith is obviously feeling the time clock
• 57:56
  Speaker 7: pressure given the upcoming election.
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: Et cetera.
• 58:00
  Speaker 7: So, you know, he very well could say, look, if
• 58:04
  Speaker 7: you want to be heard on appeal, you need to
• 58:07
  Speaker 7: come in by X date. In other words, not leaving
• 58:10
  Speaker 7: it open-ended. So keeping this on a very short leash.
• 58:15
  Speaker 7: So again, it won't happen today, but absent that reporting,
• 58:21
  Speaker 7: I just don't think it's going to happen imminently because
• 58:25
  Speaker 7: I do think we're going to hear that they made
• 58:28
  Speaker 7: some sort of appeal to main justice.
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: Reportedly, the target letter to Trump mentioned several statutes the
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: former president may have violated. What do those statutes tell
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: you about the sort of case that Jack Smith is
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: putting together? Were you surprised by any of them?
• 58:44
  Speaker 7: So the answer is no, I wasn't surprised by them.
• 58:48
  Speaker 7: I do think this is one where my colleagues in
• 58:52
  Speaker 7: the sort of legal analyst Twittersphere, I think are kind
• 58:57
  Speaker 7: of overthinking this. When I'm a prosecutor, when I was
• 59:02
  Speaker 7: doing this, I sort of thought about what are the
• 59:04
  Speaker 7: facts that I have? What can I prove beyond a
• 59:06
  Speaker 7: reasonable doubt? And then you just think about all the
• 59:09
  Speaker 7: different types of crimes. that that triggers. Here, there's so
• 59:13
  Speaker 7: many different types of crimes from obstruction of justice to
• 59:16
  Speaker 7: civil rights violations to seditious conspiracy to false statements to
• 59:21
  Speaker 7: the government. All of those could be applying here. And
• 59:24
  Speaker 7: I think there's just a lot of overthinking. I mean,
• 59:27
  Speaker 7: for instance, the civil rights issue. case, people are sort
• 59:31
  Speaker 7: of really overthinking this. Here's a really simple way to
• 59:34
  Speaker 7: understand that. This was an effort to disenfranchise everyone who
• 59:39
  Speaker 7: had voted for the current president by overturning the election.
• 59:44
  Speaker 7: That is a civil rights violation. And just in the
• 59:47
  Speaker 7: same way that the statutes were created to prevent the
• 59:51
  Speaker 7: disenfranchisement of Black and Brown communities. So I just think there's...
• 59:58
  Speaker 7: That's not what I'm sort of focusing on. I'm kind of,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 7: I am confident that Jack will bring this case. It
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 7: will come in DC. It will be, I think, a
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 7: broad case and that it's going to charge the conduct
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 7: that we all saw and that the January 6th committee
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 7: laid out in terms of all of the different aspects
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 7: of the conspiracy, whether it's pressuring states, whether it's pressuring
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 7: Mike Pence, pressuring the Department of Justice, All of that,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 7: I think, is going to be part of the charge,
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 7: because if you're going to bring a case like this
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 7: against a former president, it's going to encompass what he did.
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 7: I don't think we're going to find ourselves thinking, gee,
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 7: why didn't he charge a bigger case? I think we
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 7: probably will find that the thing that is unusual is
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 7: that just like the documents case, we learn a lot
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 7: of new facts that fill in gaps in terms of
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 7: just how much the president was up to. So that's
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 7: sort of how I see it going forward.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: That's interesting about the evidence because obviously in the classified
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: documents case, we learned a ton when the indictment came out.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: But what's different in this case is we had the
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: January 6th committee hearings a couple years ago. that laid
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: out in great detail and made a referral to the
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: Justice Department. Obviously, there could be additional evidence. There's likely
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: to be additional evidence. But based on the evidence we
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: saw there, how strong a case do you think this
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: is against the president, given the charges that are likely
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: to be brought?
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 7: I think this is going to be as devastating as
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 7: the documents case. I mean, look, this is one where
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 7: if you put politics aside and you're just looking at
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 7: this objectively in terms of what we know from the
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 7: January 6th Committee, I don't think there's anyone who could
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 7: look at what the January 6th Committee turned up and say, gee,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 7: I wonder if he did it. There's just so much
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 7: proof from so many different angles as to what was
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 7: going on. And there will be, I think, a lot
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 7: of insiders, meaning people who were Trump loyalists who will
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 7: be witnesses. I think they're going to be people in
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 7: the White House Counsel's Office who are going to be witnesses. Remember,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 7: they don't represent Donald Trump personally. They represent the office
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 7: of the presidency. And just like the Mar-a-Lago case, I
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 7: think lawyers are actually going to play a pretty key
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 7: role in helping establish his criminal intent. In other words,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 7: that he was told what he could and could not do.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 7: So I think it's going to probably be very strong,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 7: but I do think that even with the January 6th committee,
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 7: and you're right to point out that we know more
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 7: here than we knew with respect to the Dawkins case.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 7: But just remember the Dawkins case, because we had information
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 7: about the search warrant, we still knew a fair amount.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 7: I think there's a lot that the January 6th committee did,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 7: but I think there's a lot that they couldn't do
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 7: because remember, they didn't have grand jury subpoena power. They
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 7: couldn't get people to testify about specific conversations with the president.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 7: But you can be sure that Pat Cipollone, for instance,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 7: who refused to give that information was in the grand
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 7: jury telling the grand jury exactly what he recalls about
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 7: his conversations with the president as one example.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, we sort of understand– non-lawyers, like myself– understand
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: broadly this seems like a big crime trying to overturn
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: an election. And there's so much happened– January 6th has
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: become this very big term that means the sort of
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: the efforts to overturn the election starting after the election,
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: the fake electors scam, the call to Brad Raffensperger and
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 2: the similar call we now know about in Arizona– the
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: efforts to encourage people, the use of the 25th Amendment,
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: the use of the vice president to try to have
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: people march on the Capitol. What specifically do you think,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 2: what elements of that are part of a case they're
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: going to bring?
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 7: I would add to that also the pressure on the
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 7: Department of Justice, where the acting attorney general said, we
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 7: are not opening a fraud case so that you can
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 7: then tout this as a reason not to count the votes.
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 7: And then there was discussion in that Donald Trump had
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 7: about removing the acting attorney general and putting in an
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 7: amanuensis to do his bidding to just like he did
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 7: with or tried to do with Zelensky to say, look,
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 7: just say that you're doing this investigation because that will
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 7: be enough for me to use that. I think everything
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 7: that you said is what I think will be in
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 7: this indictment. It is all part of a conspiracy. And
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 7: I do think there's an unfortunate misnomer is that we
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 7: call it the January 6th case. But that's just the culmination.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 7: I really thought that the gift of the January 6th
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 7: committee was broadening that out to say that this really
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 7: was a plan that actually hatched even before the election
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 7: as sort of plan B. If I lose, this is
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 7: what I'm going to do, and then continued up through
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 7: January 6th. So I think it's going to include all
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 7: of that. I think that Jack is a very thorough person. prosecutor,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 7: I think that the documents case shows that. And I
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 7: think that he's going to include all of that. I
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 7: think that to me, the big piece that I'm thinking
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 7: about is what judge in DC gets this, because that's
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 7: going to be hugely important in the same way that
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 7: we're all very focused on Aileen Cannon and what she's
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 7: going to do with the trial date. And also, is
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 7: there going to be another defendant in the way that
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 7: there was Walt Nauda in the documents case? Are there
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 7: going to be other people charged, such as John Eastman, Chiasbro,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 7: even up to and including Meadows, Giuliani. But will there
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 7: be those people? I think those are, to me, those
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 7: are the issues where I don't know the answer to that,
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 7: but that's the thing that's most interesting to me.
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I wanted to ask you about that because obviously
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump did not do this on his own. I mean,
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: the man can barely put his pants on on his own.
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: And according to the reporting, and it's just reporting, The
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: people who engaged with him in this effort, Eastman, Giuliani,
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 2: others have not received target letters from Jack Smith. Is
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: the sequencing surprising there? Does it tell you anything?
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: You know, it does.
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 7: Because I have to say, I never in my entire career,
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 7: 21 years in the department, ever issued a target letter.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 7: It's not required. They used to be called heart attack letters. because,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 7: you know, you get it and, you know, it's not
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 7: something you wake up in the morning and go, I
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 7: can't wait to open the mail and find out I
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 7: got this. And, you know, and I've been a defense
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 7: lawyer also, you know, getting a target letter, not a
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 7: good day. So, but there's no requirement in the justice
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 7: manual that you do it. I do think in this case,
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 7: one of the reasons for it is so that everything
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 7: is extremely clear and there's a documented notice to the
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 7: former president, so there can't be any questions that they
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 7: followed every procedure and gave due process. So I do
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 7: think that if it is true that they gave it
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 7: to one but not others, that would, I'd say, tend
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 7: to support the idea that at least this indictment will
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 7: be just against one person. Absent, of course, are not
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 7: knowing about another person receiving a target letter because it's
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 7: hard to sort of canvas everyone. And it is conceivable
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 7: that people such as Rudy Giuliani don't really need a
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 7: target letter because there's been so many communications with him
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 7: and his counsel. So I wouldn't take that totally to
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 7: the bank. It's just if in a case where you've
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 7: issued one, it would seem a little unusual not to
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 7: file that procedure with respect to every proposed defendant.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: Any thoughts on what the timing in this case may be? Obviously,
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: we're waiting for Judge Cannon's ruling on delaying the case.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: There's been a general view that the classified documents case
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: could take after election, despite her ruling just because of
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: the complicated logistics of a case dealing with highly classified information.
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: Is there a shot this could kick off before the election,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: or are we looking for afterwards.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 6: Do you think?
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 7: So are you talking about just the– upcoming indictment?
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: Just the January 6th case.
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 6: Yes.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: Presuming this indictment happens. If not, we've got bigger problems
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: as a country.
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 7: So just so people don't worry, this indictment is happening.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 7: I mean, look, this is one where a lot of
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 7: people give me lots of credit for your predictions. This
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 7: is not one where it takes a real... It doesn't
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 7: take a legal eagle to know that there's an indictment
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 7: coming on the January 6th case. You don't have to know,
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 7: Jack Smith. You just have to have looked at the evidence.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 7: It's going to happen. and it will be in D.C.,
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 7: the sort of issues that there were before about where
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 7: things would happen with the documents case. That was brought
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 7: in the district where it happened. The January 6th case
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 7: is going to be brought in D.C. where it happens.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 7: When the January 6th case gets tried is going to
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 7: be a real function of the judge that they get.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 7: I think that there are a number of judges who
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 7: will feel if they can bring this case to fruition
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 7: before the election, that it is It is something that
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 7: the voters are entitled to know one way or the other.
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 7: It's not it's meaning whether there's there. Remember, it only
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 7: takes one person to have a hung jury. And that
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 7: would be a very good thing for Donald Trump. He
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 7: would tout that as a huge victory. So I think
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 7: that there will be a lot of judges who this
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 7: could end up in front of who will really feel
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 7: like they. if they can do it consistent with due
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 7: process to the defendant, which is, you know, that is
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 7: the number one thing in this country is the rule
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 7: of law is requires that defendant given adequate opportunity to prepare.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 7: But I do think that if it is, if this
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 7: case is brought in the next couple of weeks, it
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 7: is possible to bring the case, but it will be tight.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 7: You know, it is just not unusual for a case
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 7: to take a year to come to fruition. I'll give
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 7: you one example. I did the Paul Manafort case. case,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 7: which had a lot of evidence in it, had overseas evidence.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 7: There was a substantial amount of electronic evidence. And that
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 7: took 11 months to go from indictment to the start
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 7: of the trial date in DC. And that was a
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 7: relatively fast schedule. Because again, I just want people to understand,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 7: defendants are entitled to have an opportunity to make sure
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 7: they can review all of the discovery, make motions, And
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 7: that delay, while it's frustrating, is actually part of what
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 7: it means to be a country that abides by the
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 7: rule of law. So that is going to be a
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 7: tight timeframe. I think Jack Smith cannot be faulted at
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 7: all for that delay. I think there's a very good
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 7: argument that Merrick Garland can be in terms of the
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 7: situation that we're in. But Jack Smith, by all accounts,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 7: has really acted quickly. Having been in that situation in
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 7: various high profile matters, I actually think it's kind of
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 7: remarkable how much he has done and how quickly.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: Last question for you. If you were the one prosecuting
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 2: this case, what's the one thing that would keep you
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: up at night?
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 7: Jury nullification. I think what I have experienced is the
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 7: problem in a high profile case of jurors who want
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 7: to get on the jury is and who are less
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 7: than candid, which is a nice way of saying lie,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 7: in jury questionnaires and in going through the voir dire
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 7: process with the judge. Usually, most jurors don't want to
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 7: be on a jury. But in high-profile matters, you have
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 7: that problem of somebody really trying to sneak on who
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 7: is not intending to adhere to their oath of office
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 7: as a juror. And again, remember, it only takes one
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 7: juror to have a hung jury. There has to be
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 7: a unanimous jury either to convict or to acquit. And
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 7: so if you have 11 to 1, that's the kind
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 7: of thing that Donald Trump will claim that is a
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 7: huge victory, even if it's 11 to 1 for conviction.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 7: So that would be the thing that would worry me
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 7: the most. The evidence seems incredibly strong. So that's the
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 7: biggest thing that I would worry about.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: Andrew Weissman, thank you so much for joining us. And
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 2: I'm sure we'll talk again as even more indictments may
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: come for this former president.
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 7: Thanks so much. Nice to be here.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: Thank you to Andrew Weissman for joining us. Dan, this
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: is like your last pod for a couple of weeks, right?
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: You're going on vacation.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 7: Where are you going?
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: You're going camping?
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: Two weeks, a couple of family trips, one with my family,
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: one with Hallie's family. We're very excited.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: Well, enjoy your time off. We will miss you. I'm
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: sure there'll be a couple more indictments for you to
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: talk about.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 7: I know.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: I'm really hoping this indictment comes today or tomorrow because
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a real pain in my butt
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: when it happens Monday when I'm on an airplane with
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: no Wi-Fi.
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: It's going to be tough. It's going to be tough.
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: All right, everyone. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: you soon. Bye, everyone. Pod Save America is a Crooked
• 1:13:05
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• 1:13:10
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• 1:13:14
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• 1:13:17
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• 1:13:21
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• 1:13:24
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