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Scholars Corner: STOCK MARKET & INVESTING INSIGHT · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
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  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
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  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
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  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
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  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Right here, I have some slides that I want to
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: go through and pretty much go through and take and
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: allow you guys to see. So when you take a
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: look at you know market economies and this is going
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  Speaker 3: to kind of give you guys an idea of some
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  Speaker 3: of the things that I look at really from a
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  Speaker 3: standpoint of really taking a look over asset allocation.
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  Speaker 4: So I want to talk about asset allocation tonight. This
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  Speaker 4: is first is.
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  Speaker 3: Conservative and I'm going to break each one of these down. So,
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  Speaker 3: if you've been conservative with your asset allocation, you've seen
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  Speaker 3: an annualized return of about six point one percent six
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  Speaker 3: point one percent the growth of one hundred thousand over
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  Speaker 3: the past twenty years. Have you been conservative and this
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  Speaker 3: is just an average. This isn't necessarily just the highest amount,
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  Speaker 3: but on the average you've grown. That's about three hundred
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  Speaker 3: and seventeen thousand for every hundred thousand dollars that you
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  Speaker 3: would have invested. Obviously, people have been investing in heavy
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  Speaker 3: you guys get through returns multimillion dollar type returns literally
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  Speaker 3: by just having invested at minimum of three hundred thousand
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  Speaker 3: dollars over a.
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  Speaker 4: Twenty year period. Now that's being conservative.
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  Speaker 3: You'll see that a lot of this was combination of
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  Speaker 3: fixed income and also equity. So fixed income and equity.
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  Speaker 3: If we take it down to you know, really aggressive
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  Speaker 3: or modernly aggressive, you see that this pie chart gets
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  Speaker 3: a little bit bigger, and you see that a lot
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  Speaker 3: of that is due obviously to aggressiveness in actually holding equities.
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  Speaker 3: So I want everyone to kind of start paying attention
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  Speaker 3: and really looking at your risk tolerance.
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  Speaker 4: If you're someone.
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  Speaker 3: Who's not really not really comfortable with like major drawbacks
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  Speaker 3: in the market, and you know, seeing probably major pullbacks,
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  Speaker 3: this aggressive type portfolio would probably be someone who has
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  Speaker 3: a lot of growth stocks. So obviously, when the markets
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  Speaker 3: are increasing a lot more higher, a lot of times
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  Speaker 3: those growth stocks do generate higher returns. Now, people with
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  Speaker 3: conservative or modern moderately conservative portfolios are kind of split
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  Speaker 3: to where they have a little bit of their money
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  Speaker 3: in stocks. It also may have their money and other things,
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  Speaker 3: and we talk about fixed income, we can even talk
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  Speaker 3: about things like real estate, multi family properties, et cetera.
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  Speaker 3: So I want everyone to kind of really start to
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  Speaker 3: rationalize a factor in where do you want to really
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  Speaker 3: belong what category?
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  Speaker 4: And everyone has different risk tolerance.
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  Speaker 3: Obviously, a lot of times they recommend a lot of
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  Speaker 3: younger people could be more comfortable being here in this
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  Speaker 3: aggressive because they have more time.
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  Speaker 4: Obviously, people a little bit.
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  Speaker 3: Older, you might want to be moderate or a little
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  Speaker 3: bit moderate conservative or even fully conservative, because you're really
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  Speaker 3: trying to protect as much downside as possible, because you're
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  Speaker 3: nearing ages where you potentially want to retire early all
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  Speaker 3: of those different things, and you need things that are
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  Speaker 3: kind of more stable and not that extra volatile. So
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  Speaker 3: this kind of gives you an idea of moderate. It's
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  Speaker 3: kind of in the middle where you have some cash.
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  Speaker 3: And notice that you know this dark spot right here
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  Speaker 3: is the amount of cash. So this is good where
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  Speaker 3: I always talk about cash as a position. It's always
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  Speaker 3: good to have cash on the side. You don't want
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  Speaker 3: to have all your money invested and you don't want
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  Speaker 3: to have all your money tied up, so make sure
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  Speaker 3: that you have cash on the side. What I want
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  Speaker 3: to show you guys, is that asset class versus performance.
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  Speaker 3: So a lot of times when you take a look here,
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  Speaker 3: we have here higher volatility on this side of our graph,
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  Speaker 3: and then we have higher return on this side of
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  Speaker 3: our graph. Usually a lot of times usually you see
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  Speaker 3: the higher volatility, typically sometimes the lower type returns where
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  Speaker 3: sometimes you see a little bit of a slower volatility.
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  Speaker 4: It's usually where you start to see a little bit
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  Speaker 4: of the better returns from a percentage standpoint.
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  Speaker 3: Obviously, in times when people are more aggressively looking at stocks,
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  Speaker 3: you see that sometimes the volatility can lead to a
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  Speaker 3: higher return. But during this time, when people are a
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  Speaker 3: lot more conservative, those higher volatility plays get dropped off.
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  Speaker 4: How many people buy yes and.
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  Speaker 3: The chat have seen their growth stocks probably decline fifty
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  Speaker 3: to sixty percent in the past, you know, three to
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  Speaker 3: six months, but you've probably seen something like an Apple
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  Speaker 3: or Microsoft, probably not even sneeze ten percent.
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  Speaker 4: Yep, all right, so this is another way.
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  Speaker 3: So I have here this asset class first risk performance.
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  Speaker 4: Now a couple more. I got a lot of slides
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  Speaker 4: here tonight, so a lot of inform erners.
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  Speaker 2: What's up?
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• 6:56
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fine nearly
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: border and families will be protected.
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Department of Homeland Security.
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: Patient for you, guys, So I get these slides pretty
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: much lot of times weekly.
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  Speaker 4: So I'd like to give you guys an example.
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: This is the for a lot of people to ask,
• 8:05
  Speaker 3: you know, Lawrence, where you you know, really looking and
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: getting your economic data. You know, I'm taking you guys
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: through this process here but also taking a look back
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: history of US bull market and bear market cycles, so
• 8:17
  Speaker 3: you guys can kind of get a kind of process
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  Speaker 3: of seeing that.
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  Speaker 4: To be quite.
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  Speaker 3: Honest with you, this highlighted here, this bear market is
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  Speaker 3: really small. If we're really being honest and we're taking
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  Speaker 3: you I'm taking you guys all the way back to
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  Speaker 3: pretty much nineteen thirty two, and so you see that
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  Speaker 3: obviously here during the Great Depression, we had a thirty
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  Speaker 3: three month period where the markets went down eighty six percent.
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  Speaker 3: Obviously during the Great Depression, for those that don't know
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  Speaker 3: what was the cause of the Great Depression, it was
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  Speaker 3: actually the complete opposite of what we're dealing with now.
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  Speaker 3: It was deflation. So deflation is where you start to
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  Speaker 3: have you start you can have the same amount of money,
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  Speaker 3: but instead maybe you took took that one hundred dollars
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  Speaker 3: and that one hundred dollars by.
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  Speaker 4: You what used to buy you?
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  Speaker 3: Now what used to buy and cost about one hundred
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  Speaker 3: and fifty dollars.
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  Speaker 4: You can take one hundred dollars and be able to
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  Speaker 4: buy that.
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  Speaker 3: So we saw decreasing prices of goodness and services of
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  Speaker 3: like thirty three thirty four percent in that time period,
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  Speaker 3: and we were in a thirty three month down trend.
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  Speaker 4: Obviously World War two as well too.
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  Speaker 3: Also here we were in a sixty one month so
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  Speaker 3: five year down trend negative sixty percent. But you notice
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: as time has really went along, some of the length
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: of these down trends have really been minimum and small.
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  Speaker 3: You saw here nineteen fifty thirty seven months, saw here
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  Speaker 3: in nineteen sixty two, and nineteen sixty three, fourteen months
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  Speaker 3: down twenty two percent. So really, when we define a
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: bear market, I'm glad they said this. Bear markets are
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: a normal part of stock investing. While they have varied
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: in lengths, the stock market has historic, historically recovered from
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: each bear market, and we've seen that. But if we
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: start to look at the in between months, think about it.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: You had sixty months of three hundred and twenty three
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  Speaker 3: percent return, and think about that.
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  Speaker 4: That's just on the actual indusses overall induicies.
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: We're not even factoring in the fact of outside of
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: just looking at the indusses, if we factor in as
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: well the stocks that grew during this time period too.
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: If we go here to the eighties and we take
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: a look after Black Monday and he saw that in
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: the mid eighties. If you studied history of the markets
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: and you start take a look at what happened during
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: Black Monday, you see this twenty seven percent drop, thirty
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: four percent drop. You saw a three month drop in
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: nineteen ninety five. Of think about that, that's only three months.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: So three months and then boom, three months down trend
• 10:36
  Speaker 3: sets you up really for a major uptrend, major uptren
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: Then you came down again two thousand and seven financial crisis,
• 10:43
  Speaker 3: and then boom, we saw a nice uptrend again fifty
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: nine months. So if we really think about it, for
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: the most part, you've at least seen for the most
• 10:51
  Speaker 3: part a lot of times the markets are moving up
• 10:53
  Speaker 3: at least a minimum of fifty to sixty months. At
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: minimum we've seen more, but at least fifty to sixty
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: months in and so this is why you really want
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: to be invested in the markets, and investing in the
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: markets when there's a drought and where you start to
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: see that you know prices are collapsing and caving in,
• 11:11
  Speaker 3: and understanding that some of the companies that you're probably
• 11:13
  Speaker 3: looking to acquire, some of the ETFs, some of the
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: longer term investments. The best time to buy is not
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: when something is going to the heavens.
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: That's the best time to buy.
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: So the best time to buy the question that I
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: always get when's the best time to buy is when
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: something's not going to the heavens anymore. And the thing
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: is is that right now a lot of people are
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: probably going to get discouraged. A lot of people are like,
• 11:32
  Speaker 3: oh boom, Like it's not happening right now. It's not
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: supposed to always happen all the time. And that's kind
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: of what I want people to really start to think about,
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: is that.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: Think about it.
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: If the market was always going to all time high,
• 11:45
  Speaker 3: when would you ever be able to get in?
• 11:46
  Speaker 4: I want people to really sit back and really think
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: about that.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: If the market was always making new all time highs,
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: when would you ever be able to get a position in?
• 11:54
  Speaker 4: I will tell people that.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: And so this kind of puts things into a perspective
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: for you to really see it laid out.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: accused of murdering a Texas man of Venezuelan charged with
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy Noman, the United States
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned, and deported. You will
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: never return. But if you register using our CBP home
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: border and families.
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: Will be protected.
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: Sponsored by the United States Partment of Homeland Security,