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Transcript

Post Election · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Professional Ag Marketing Podcast.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_01: If you want a deep dive into the ag markets and risk management strategies, your search is over.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_01: Come here after every Friday to get your weekly commodity recap.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: This is your host, Mike Minor.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: Let's get started.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Today is November 8th.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: I've got Lucas Peters with us today.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_01: How's it going, Lucas?
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it's going very well on a beautiful Friday in November, Mike.
• 0:31
  SPEAKER_01: What a week.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: I'll tell you what, this is the post-election podcast, Lucas.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_01: We are going to talk mainly about the election and its impact towards agriculture specifically.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_01: So I'm going to talk a little bit about what happened, uh talk about the quick market reaction, talk about a market outlook, kind of what's going on in the future with uh what we've seen now with this election.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: And then I'm going to turn it over to you.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: You're going to talk about short-term ag policy and then people in focus after this election.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Hey, that sounds like a good plan.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: It only comes around once every four years.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: We better make it a good podcast, Mike.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: True.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: We better get this one right.
• 1:08
  SPEAKER_01: So let's start with what happened.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, uh this is very important.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: It's not just who won and how and uh what they won in, but it's important how they won.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_01: Because the last two elections, there's been turmoil following the election.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_01: You know, last one Trump didn't think he l he lost.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_01: So there that brought tensions.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_01: Um you had to wait to find out who won.
• 1:34
  SPEAKER_01: Uh the one before that, I mean, the other side, you know, it it wasn't a unanimous right away.
• 1:39
  SPEAKER_01: We thought new Trump won.
• 1:41
  SPEAKER_01: Yep.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_01: This time around was different based upon the fact the moment that Trump hit 270 electoral votes, soybeans basically dropped immediately in price.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_01: And in fact, it was so unanimous that uh Harris didn't outperform Biden in like a single county in the entire US.
• 2:00
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yep.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: That was a big surprise, and you know, a lot of the speculation and people talking, pundits talking of was she really the right choice, or should have they just left Biden in there because of that.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Um and it was interesting, I think was it last last week when we did the podcast, we didn't think we'd know the results of the election till maybe a week from now.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um and that's just that's crazy exactly what you said of all of a sudden it became very clear on how the election was won.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: Uh very clear, very quickly.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: That was probably the biggest surprise of the whole day.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_01: And Trump won every swing state.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it was pretty clear.
• 2:44
  SPEAKER_01: It wasn't like, all right, well, did he win the state or not?
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_01: And if he didn't, then it, you know, then he's not president.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_01: And that was really important because it gave the markets a very clear indication of, all right, money goes to this place because of this result.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: It was very cut, clean, clear, and that makes a big difference for them.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: So from a what happened perspective, it was very clear that Trump had dominated the election, America had spoken, he even won the popular vote for crying out loud.
• 3:13
  SPEAKER_01: Now, this is this matters to you guys in agriculture, especially in rural America from a market perspective and consumer demand, because in rural America, we're going into the holidays, and the election I've always felt like is particularly placed right where it is for a good reason as well, right before the holidays.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: People go out, they spend a lot of money.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now you got your president elected, you're feeling good, you're confident in your economy again.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna go spend that money and buy my kids gifts, and we're gonna eat out, and that helps consumer demand.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: And I think in America now going forward, uh we're gonna see a nice boost in consumer demand and not as many worries about the economy from that aspect.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_01: So that's a good thing for protein demand when you have choice cut out at a very high level, for example.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_01: Okay.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_01: The next thing, I guess, with what's happened is uh we've started quick.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, when you look at it, this isn't his first go round.
• 4:12
  SPEAKER_01: He's already done this, he knew what he did last time, he got thrown in, didn't think he was gonna be there, didn't know what to do right away, even said on the Joe Rogan podcast the other day, he's like, Oh, well, what do I do now?
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well, this guy knows what's up, he's been here before, just have that guy help you.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_01: Now he really can kind of piece together who he wants in his administration.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: You've got experience, and like you said, the the first time around there was a lot of battles and fights about, you know, somebody win the popular vote and the electoral college, and there was a lot of confusion for the first month before you can even figure out to start getting his plan and people together.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: The fact that this was so decisive and so fast really puts him off on a good first step.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: Beyond the fact that you look at the other elections in the Senate and the House, which I'm sure you'll get into uh helping him along uh as well, it kind of eliminates any worry there of not getting somebody approved for a position that he wants them in, um, really sets itself up.
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, for this can't for for President Trump now, but like uh for you think back in history, when was the last time we had this where it just kind of all set up fast?
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: Um that could lead to some pretty interesting things here.
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: So I I'll let you get back into the market reaction and and what it's gonna mean.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_01: So from a market reaction standpoint, it all right away, since it had a very clear indication of what had happened, the markets reacted in a very executed pattern.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, it it happened the way it should have.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_01: Uh crude oil traded lower that night, soybeans traded 20 cents lower, the US dollar was up, um, the stock market rallied.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_01: Like if if you would have asked me before what was going to happen and what did the markets do, that would have been exactly what I would have expected the night of and kind of the next day.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the next day was very interesting because you got what you thought you'd get right away out of it.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_01: And you think, oh boy, soybeans, here we go again.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_01: We've been through the trade war, we know what's up with this.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_01: We're at a pretty high level historically yet.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_01: I know prices aren't that fantastic, but we're still in the mid-tens and during the trade war from 18 to 2020, we never traded Nova beans above 10 bucks.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_01: Correct.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_01: So uh right away it was what we thought, and then the next day, even that next day's close on soybeans, we rallied back in close green, and it's like, huh, that was interesting.
• 6:39
  SPEAKER_01: I wonder what happened there.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: And then yesterday, it really started to show its hand, and um the market reaction had quickly started talking about soybeans in the soybean oil complex.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_01: Because if you look, soybeans have tracked most of their strength back in by the byproduct uh soy oil.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_01: And soy oil, we set a four-month new high on Friday on expectations that Trump is gonna impose tariffs on the biofuel feed stocks and uh on spillover uh support from like the palm oil rally.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_01: So this idea that, sure, we, you know, we could or likely will put tariffs on Chinese products and they're gonna retaliate by not buying our soybeans, well, that kind of means that we're probably not gonna buy used cooking oil from China as well.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_01: So that helped uh kind of fuel the rally yesterday.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_01: And it was kind of clear the uh soybean oil market was up two bucks yesterday and it had been running really hard.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_01: Meal was unchanged on the day, so that didn't have any support, and then soybeans were up twenty.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_01: So a very interesting trade, not exactly expecting a 20 cent trading day higher after two days after you elected Donald Trump president, you know, just from uh a fundamental aspect.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_01: So we had very interesting market reactions right after the report.
• 7:54
  SPEAKER_01: Now, the outlook looking forward is I don't think it's over yet.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_01: We've been seeing some boosted um demand here, probably some front loading on buying from both China and some soybeans lately.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, they've picked up a little bit.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_01: Chinese demand's looking a little bit better.
• 8:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, we'll probably see some action ahead of January, is what I'm assuming, from them and Mexico, who's been front loading on corn imports as well.
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: So from an outlook, I uh nothing's changed in his idea of, you know, tariffs, um, drill baby drill on the crude oil side, push that lower.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: Um a lot of the same rhetoric that he had in that capacity as the last administration.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_01: Now, if you look outside of agriculture, um he's gonna grow the deficit quite aggressively.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, he's gonna have tax cuts that uh cut away revenue from the government, and he's gonna try to offset some of that with lower expenses, pulling on Musk to do what he did at Twitter, but uh we'll see how all that goes, right?
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_01: So when it comes to a lot of that, um, you know, that's down the road.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: We'll we'll see what he does with government spending and tax uh programs, things like that.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_01: But for the time being, uh, those are some of the quick hitters on market reaction.
• 9:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and you're definitely, I think you're gonna see, and not that this is any different than normal, I suppose, but as different people get announced or thought about for different positions in his cabinet or decision makers uh as countries come in and and voice their uh potential reaction if the action uh gets put in place.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, that's gonna have a big effect on markets uh day to day, even though we're quite a few months away from anything real happening.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Um you bring up a good thing about uh Musk, and you know the big headline is he's gonna come in and try to cut what two trillion dollars.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Two trillion dollars.
• 9:46
  SPEAKER_01: We spend six trillion dollars a year in the government, and he wants he thinks he can cut two out of it.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that's uh that's that's a an aggressive plan.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um and we'll see how that goes.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: But that is gonna be of course.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_01: You could say that's crazy, but then you look what he did at Twitter, and it's like, I guess the only thing it's important to remember, Twitter is a business, the government isn't a business.
• 10:09
  SPEAKER_00: And you and I know we like to talk about running the government like a business.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: The problem is there's the government's not a business, right?
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: And there's some things that governments need to do that sometimes don't make a lot of business sense that you gotta do, but hey, I I'm not saying there isn't plenty of room to cut and find some waste in the government, because but we all know there is some of that to be cut.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_01: So well, even the other day on Rogan's podcast, he was talking about like from the president himself, there's 10,000 appointed people below him after that decision.
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_01: You know, he hires somebody and then they hire 100 people or whatever, but yeah, that's a lot.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: There is a lot.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of people there uh working for the government.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: Um all right, so good stuff, Mike.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: Let's you let's transition a little bit into short-term e policy.
• 10:56
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so and these are I'll preface it, these are just Lucas's thoughts.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_01: Okay, so I should have really said that before you you let me talk that whole time, and I did not say that.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_01: How dare you?
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: All right, so uh just kind of reading a few different people that I trust in the industry and then uh kind of putting a few of my own thoughts on it.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: But first thing here, uh I think you're gonna see a push to try to get the farm bill done in the lame duck session that we're in.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_00: Um and you might wonder why is that important?
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: Well, if you wait until uh after the new Congress starts, you probably almost have to start all over again, right?
• 11:38
  SPEAKER_00: Because you got new people in new positions, a new Secretary of Agg, you got you know, Musk trying to cut two trillion dollars.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: There's gonna be a lot of new headwinds they're gonna have to face.
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um versus you know, they got a uh a house version now, they got a Senate version.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: Um if they can try to push something through, uh particularly if it was the house version, um the boy, I I think that is something they're gonna try to do.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: I don't necessarily think they're gonna get it done, but I think that's gonna be from an ag side something to watch from here through uh through January of see if they can get that done.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: If they can't get it done, fully expect them to extend uh the previous one another uh year um and then go back to the drawing board with a new Congress and see see what happens for that.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_01: Uh one thing So that's the farm bill.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: That's the farm bill, okay?
• 12:36
  SPEAKER_01: And that farm bill will control things like what?
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: So the farm bill is uh it is our uh commodity programs like ARC, plc, uh conservation, CRP payments, things like that.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: It also includes all the uh food programs and um and SNAP and the kind of food assistance uh programs in the country.
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: So there's it's a lot more than farm.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_00: Um and that's why I would think you're gonna have a push to get it done.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_01: Gotcha, because it's 87% food stamps, food assistance stuff like that.
• 13:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yep, yep.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: And and we can get in our in a discussion of well, should it include that or not?
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: You kind of need it to assume because otherwise you're not gonna have anybody that cares about a bill that helps a few farmers in in the country.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_00: So uh I think you're gonna see a push to get that done before the uh everybody knew starts.
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_00: Uh switching to the Farm Act, which we talked a little bit about last week, uh proposed um you know, a proposed revenue payment program from uh a representative of Mississippi.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I think you'll see a push to try to get that through, especially if the farm bill moves.
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: Um of course it would more likely to be subject to cuts.
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: Again, if you go back to this overarching theme of that seems to be at least what you're hearing out of the Trump camp, like we're gonna cut, right?
• 14:07
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna find waste and we're gonna cut it.
• 14:09
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not saying this is waste, but it might appear that way.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: And it's it'd be uh very easy to say no, we're not gonna send out payments.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: So if you get it pushed through at the end of the year, boy, that's good.
• 14:22
  SPEAKER_00: It would be a great thing for farmers.
• 14:24
  SPEAKER_01: Can they actually push it through that fast?
• 14:26
  SPEAKER_01: Like what's gotta happen here?
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I don't think it's gonna happen myself, but I think you're gonna see a momentum to try to do it because they're gonna let uh lean on the fact that farm income has dropped 40% over the last two years.
• 14:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um, rural America has been Trump supporters.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go out and support that group and get it pushed through.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_01: Uh or I guess if they get it 90% of the way, they might just feel complied to push it through anyway.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: So last 10 seconds.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: There's also the thought of maybe we should try to get one through, farm act or farm bill, and see which one's the easiest.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: Uh farm bill, I'm assuming.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: Well, farm act might be easier because it's only one thing.
• 15:08
  SPEAKER_00: Farm bill is a very it's a large bill.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: So again, when you're trying to talk about lame duck session bills getting passed, the likelihood of a lot of this getting done is probably minimal.
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: But those are a couple things I'm watching.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: Of course, uh, you talked about tariffs and the impacts that's having or could have on the markets and what we saw, you're like soybeans, right, on election night.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: Um so I just did a little little look back at that last time you was in and and when the tariffs went in place.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh of course, soybean price went down uh because China stopped buying a lot of soybeans and it led to the uh the the phase one China agreement and things and kind of built out of it.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_01: A massive thing for recent agricultural history, in my opinion.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_00: But what it did immediately was create something we called the MFP payments, right?
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: And those were the payments farmers got because of the trade war that was happening due to government policy.
• 16:07
  SPEAKER_01: And these were the big ones, like these were big amounts of money that got pushed to farmers.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I I would say, and especially it was kind of the start of all of the payments for the next, well, really, we're still going on the five years.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I just got one the other day, right?
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: So if you look at the first year that was put in place, uh there was five and a half billion dollars paid out uh to farmers through MFP.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 16:32
  SPEAKER_00: That sounds like a big number in the grand scheme of things, not that big a number.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the estimates are if similar policies were to take place and China reacted similarly this time around, it'd cost the farmer in drop of market price, particularly of beans, between four and six billion dollars.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: Well, kind of the exact same amount.
• 16:55
  SPEAKER_00: So you would think if that's the case, there's probably an MFP three or four or five or six coming.
• 17:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, if that's the the route they go with with the tariffs.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_01: Um is that all set up so they can just click the green button and say, all right, let's go.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_00: It definitely is easier since they have precedent.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, right.
• 17:15
  SPEAKER_00: Um again though, it kind of goes against all the hey, we got to cut two trillion dollars and and things like that.
• 17:23
  SPEAKER_00: So it it's not gonna be an easy hit the button and send money out.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: The nice thing about uh sending money to farmers though is what do farmers do with it?
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: They spend it.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we we're good at that.
• 17:33
  SPEAKER_00: And so they it support the economy, so it's a good group to to send money to.
• 17:38
  SPEAKER_00: One interesting point as you think about though, Mike, is China's buying a lot less soybeans from us than they were back then.
• 17:46
  SPEAKER_01: So the impact of it might not be as big as a and the renewable diesel space is somewhat new as well, with the impact that has with them importing cooking oil into the US as well.
• 17:58
  SPEAKER_00: Correct.
• 17:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so those are just a few things uh policy-wise to watch here for the next uh month and a half, two months.
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um transitioning a little bit more into the people as we look at you know, finding a Secretary of Agg and who are gonna be the influer influencers uh in the Trump community.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_01: I think this is gonna be a popular topic for the next few weeks.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, we've already started to see some.
• 18:23
  SPEAKER_01: The move today was uh I feel like a big one.
• 18:26
  SPEAKER_00: This this is the funnest part of getting a new person in office, right?
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_00: Especially someone like Donald Trump.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_00: Is to speculate who's gonna come in.
• 18:34
  SPEAKER_00: And and so you you saw it, well, he talked about it on the Joe Rogan podcast, and you saw it kind of starting in August.
• 18:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh RFK uh supporting Trump and and kind of getting promised or a handshake deal of uh he'll be part of the Trump camp.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: Now, whether that's an actual position or an advisor, I think is a long way to be to figure out.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: You look at RFK's history, environmental lawyer, um, probably not a a person that you would think is favorable to agriculture, at least the agriculture business that we've become accustomed to in in uh the part of the world where we're at.
• 19:16
  SPEAKER_01: His stance against big egg is quite vocal.
• 19:18
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: Doesn't he in previous interviews uh doesn't like big egg, doesn't like big animal, doesn't like chemical, doesn't like the seed companies, doesn't like seed oils.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: Um one of the terms I know he's used before, he wants to reverse 80 years of bad farm policy.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: Uh those things get a little scary from uh from my chair, maybe, uh, but in reality, it's it's hard to change all that.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: Um and recently, uh was specifically with RFK, is he's trying to transition out of ag policy into health policy, right?
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that was uh uh the message I know Trump had put forth on uh on a few different uh interviews is uh let him loosen health and let him do whatever he wants.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I did like how he has been told to stay away from oil.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, don't touch my liquid gold bottle.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_01: Don't touch the liquid gold.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_01: But have fun with the rest of the stuff.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_00: And so since it is more health focused, of course, egg is still be affected and policy could affect egg, but he seems to be targeting the processed food additives and additives.
• 20:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh so that part it's really hard to argue against, right?
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: I don't think any of us from a moral perspective.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_00: None of us are out here promoting that we should eat more processed food.
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_00: At least I don't think so.
• 20:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but the that's a a a unique battle because processed foods fit a need, right?
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 20:48
  SPEAKER_00: Generally they're more readily available, they're a lower cost, and they're fast, right?
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, and Mike, I know you got three kids and a wife at home in business.
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_00: We eat way too many chicken nuggets.
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's because that's what you do when you're in a hurry.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so there will be some pushback there.
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the other person that has kind of uh risen and gotten so some news this week is uh uh Representative Tom Massey out of Kentucky.
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: Um had came out and said that he would be willing to serve any president uh in the Secretary of AG field or position.
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_00: Um he has been a Trump critic in the past.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_00: He did come out and endorse him in 24.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_00: Uh and I don't and I know you know about this guy.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_00: He's a pretty interesting cat.
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_00: Like he's he's very smart, he's like a certified genius, right?
• 21:38
  SPEAKER_00: He went to MIT, he's an engineer, he lives on a fall small farm in Kentucky, off the grid, solar panels, a few chickens, a few cows, a few goats.
• 21:49
  SPEAKER_00: Um kind of a a unique individual to have in congreg Congress.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_00: Uh also somebody unique to be He was the only person that like
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_01: voted against uh foreign aid to Israel, for example.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_01: So he's not afraid to go against the grain at all.
• 22:05
  SPEAKER_00: Not afraid to go against the grain.
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_00: And so Secretary Ag is probably an idea where he can come in and have some influence.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: Again though, you kind of follow a little bit of the RFK model and this discussion of hey let's take this support smaller farmers, get food closer to the source, a lot of um farm to fork type policy or ideas, I should say.
• 22:34
  SPEAKER_00: And both RFK and Massey, if you read some of their stuff, are pro-conservation, pro-soil health.
• 22:41
  SPEAKER_00: It's really hard for me to see any support for new chemicals or new biotechnology, payments for large producers, things like that.
• 22:51
  SPEAKER_00: That seems to be against what these two guys in particular stand for.
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_00: On one positive note I'd say uh they they both seem pretty friendly biofuels on things I've read.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_00: Of course maybe they've came out and said something different.
• 23:07
  SPEAKER_01: I know RFK doesn't like carbon sequestration.
• 23:10
  SPEAKER_01: I know that.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: Yep but you know when you're in California like RFK you know they they've been a big proponent of biofuels and I think that if you're not going to use seed oil in food well you can use seed oil to burn you know in your car or your truck I think that is uh maybe a little bit of a positive light out of these two guys is the the biofuels type um industry sees some support.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: However both of these guys have also followed the the message of like Elon of coming out and saying hey we want to cut and and get rid of wasteful spending and things like that.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: So uh I the biggest thing I have with these two Massey and RFK and just some of the rumors going around and the interviews they've done is they're both new to the egg sphere right yeah and anytime you have an unknown coming into a uh a program that traditionally has been filled by a pretty similar profile it's a little scary.
• 24:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah and and so that's uh something to watch out for not watch out for just keeping an ear out um if that comes true and neither one is uh that I've seen yet has like officially been named in a position so by this week next or this time next week both of them could be out and not even have to worry about it.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: But uh those are a couple names I'm watching.
• 24:38
  SPEAKER_00: If you want to go and just wrapping up here kind of who else is out there Kip Tom has done some interviews here recently and his name is floating to the top of Ag Secretary is a farmer from Indiana.
• 24:54
  SPEAKER_00: He's uh served in an advisory role for Trump in the first time around and still serves kind of on a trade group you know he'd be a more traditional choice grain farmer from the Midwest.
• 25:05
  SPEAKER_00: Mike Conway uh name was floated out there uh from Texas has has helped pass a lot of farm bills in his time in Congress he's you know working as a lobbyist now but um would be a really safe choice for kind of traditional egg I would say uh Ted McKinney uh also from Indiana I believe Sid Miller is from Texas again all of these are a little more safe a little less vocal a little bit a less not like Trump less like hey I want to change things uh reverse policy over the last 80 years right and and so I think uh but I think the overarching theme you're gonna see is there's gonna be a continued push of promoting conservation and uh I just I think that message will stick through it started in this last administration I think you'll see it stick through uh the Trump administration as well for ag policy um and I kind of interested to see this health aspect and how that affects uh ag but overall um it'll be interesting and uh yeah I think uh I I kind of personally believe the RFK the Masseys are good headlines and that's probably why you're seeing them right now but at the end of the day by the time somebody gets picked I think it's gonna be a more traditional name and all this kind of goes back to the way it was.
• 26:30
  SPEAKER_01: I got someone for people in focus here who seemingly impacted the soybean market directly today uh 11 minutes after the WASD airport came out showed a drop in yield on corn and soybeans uh we started to rally that market pretty good news dropped that uh Trump asked protectionist Leitheiser Robert Leightheiser to be the U.S.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: trade chief so it looked like that maybe hit the market here this morning in a negative manner that uh could have directly impacted soybean futures anyway.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_01: So we all know that game he uh was kind of ahead of the uh worked on the old Japan situation in the 80s and then he was also involved in the last trade war we had here so uh no new story when it comes to uh Trump and Leitheiser and trade I guess we know that is not necessarily bullish soybeans by any means is it oh and this is what's gonna happen over the next two months right that a name's gonna float out and until they're actually signed on the dotted line we don't know if it's true or not.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of volatility.
• 27:31
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of volatility in the market until we actually get this thing moved from the unknown to the known right Mike?
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 27:37
  SPEAKER_01: What a week.
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_01: I mean you had the election on Tuesday you had the interest rate cut yesterday and then you had WAS day today so a lot of things really going on a lot of new names floating uh markets have seen quite a bit of volatility here so it's been a a lot of fun to watch and research and get some new news in this market after a quick harvest and any final thoughts Lucas?
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're all probably looking forward to next week with a little less breaking news hopefully but I would guarantee the volatility will still be there.
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_01: Market movement means market opportunity.
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_01: Very good we'll talk to you later.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_01: And thank you to all our listeners please reach out to us at professionaleggmarketing.com check out our other podcast as well Professional Egg Marketing that's released every Friday.
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_01: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 28:30
  SPEAKER_01: See you next time