Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Why Bitcoin Goes Parabolic EVERY TIME It Dies! | Beyond Bitcoin

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Why Bitcoin Goes Parabolic EVERY TIME It Dies! | Beyond Bitcoin · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  You think losing 47% hurts? In 2011 Bitcoin crashed 94%.
• 0:07
  Everyone said it was dead. In 2013 it crashed 87%.
• 0:11
  Mount Gox took everybody's money and everyone said it was dead.
• 0:15
  In 2018 it dropped 84%. The SEC said it was coming for
• 0:19
  blood. Everybody said it was dead.
• 0:21
  In 2022, Luna blew up, FTX blew up, it dropped 77% and everybody
• 0:27
  thought it was dead. Every single time the Perma
• 0:29
  bears celebrated and every single time they were wrong
• 0:32
  emotions. This is beyond Bitcoin.
• 0:34
  Let me tell you about Crash 477. According to the Bitcoin
• 0:43
  Obituaries website, and yes this is a real website, Bitcoin has
• 0:47
  been declared dead 477 times since 2010. 477 separate
• 0:54
  articles, op eds and TV segments formally announcing that Bitcoin
• 0:58
  was over, dead, gone, never coming back. 477 times.
• 1:03
  The skeptics were confident enough to write the obituary 477
• 1:08
  times. They were wrong.
• 1:10
  And right now we're sitting at 47% off the all time high of
• 1:13
  126,000 and the cycle bears are back at their desks typing
• 1:17
  furiously. So let me give you some
• 1:19
  historical context because the history here is genuinely
• 1:22
  interesting. I mean, if you're interested in
• 1:24
  this kind of thing, first we're going to walk through the
• 1:27
  pattern, why every Bitcoin crash looks identical to the people
• 1:31
  living through it, and why the ending is always the same.
• 1:33
  Second, we're going through every major crash 1 by 1, 2011,
• 1:38
  2013, 2018, 2022. What caused each one, what
• 1:42
  people said and what actually happened?
• 1:44
  Like a phoenix rising from the ashes.
• 1:46
  And 3rd, where we are right now. By every historical metric,
• 1:50
  we're sitting exactly where the prior 4 cycles all agreed on.
• 1:54
  And if you know what happened to the people who bought at this
• 1:56
  point in those cycles, this episode might change how you
• 1:58
  think about this dip. And if I knew, well, I probably
• 2:02
  wouldn't be making these episodes now would I?
• 2:04
  You ready? Let's go.
• 2:05
  Every Bitcoin crash follows the same script.
• 2:09
  Every single one. Step one Bitcoin runs up
• 2:11
  parabolic. The charts look vertical.
• 2:13
  Mainstream media writes about it.
• 2:15
  First time buyers pile in. Uber drivers are suddenly very
• 2:18
  talkative about it. Step 2.
• 2:19
  Something breaks. A hack, A regulatory
• 2:22
  announcement, A macro shock, an orgy in a penthouse.
• 2:25
  This causes a massive collapse. The specific trigger changes
• 2:28
  every cycle. The pattern doesn't.
• 2:30
  Step three. Bitcoin drops fast and ugly. 50
• 2:33
  sixty, 7080%. The same people calling for 500K
• 2:37
  Bitcoin are now calling for zero.
• 2:40
  Step 4, The obituaries. Forbes runs the piece.
• 2:43
  Bloomberg runs the piece. Your uncle texts you.
• 2:46
  The regulators Get serious. Peter Schiff goes on CNBC and
• 2:49
  says he was right all along. Step 5.
• 2:52
  Bitcoin still doesn't care. The network keeps running.
• 2:55
  Blocks keep getting mined, developers keep building.
• 2:58
  Well, probably mostly in clawed at this point.
• 3:00
  And the wallets that were quietly accumulating at the
• 3:02
  bottom, Those people come out generationally wealthy.
• 3:06
  Now the media, they live in step four.
• 3:07
  They are professionally incentivized to write about Step
• 3:10
  4, which is the obituaries, because panic drives clicks.
• 3:13
  But what they never cover and what doesn't fit in their
• 3:15
  narrative is step five. Let me show you Step 5.
• 3:17
  Five times in a row in June 2011, Bitcoin had just run from
• 3:21
  under a dollar to 3150, its first big parabolic run.
• 3:25
  The Internet was starting to take notice.
• 3:27
  Then someone hacked Mount Gox, the exchange handling 70% of all
• 3:32
  the Bitcoin trades at the time, and dumped hundreds of thousands
• 3:35
  of coins. Price flash crashed to a penny,
• 3:38
  literally 1 cent, which, by the way, doesn't exist anymore.
• 3:42
  It recovered to $2.00. And then it kept falling.
• 3:45
  By November 2011, Bitcoin was at $2.01, down 94% from its peak.
• 3:50
  The Guardian called it a failed experiment.
• 3:52
  Forbes said it was imploding. The New York Times could decide
• 3:55
  whether they wanted to write an obituary or a retrospective, but
• 3:59
  they did both. So what happened next?
• 4:01
  Bitcoin ran from $2.00 to $11163 by November 2013.
• 4:07
  That's a 57,000% recovery from the bottom.
• 4:11
  And if you held through that 94% down, you made 570 times your
• 4:16
  money on the other side, 570 times.
• 4:20
  Does that sound familiar? Now the 2013 crash.
• 4:23
  And here's where it gets wild, because 2013 had two crashes.
• 4:27
  First, Bitcoin hit $265 in April of 2013.
• 4:31
  Mount Gox couldn't handle the volume ADDOS attack.
• 4:35
  And believe me, I had to look that up.
• 4:37
  Took the exchange down and they suspended trading.
• 4:40
  Bitcoin fell to $54, down 79%, but then it recovered.
• 4:45
  It ran all the way back up to $11163 by November 2013.
• 4:50
  Then China banned financial institutions from handling
• 4:53
  Bitcoin, and it came out that Mount Gox had been quietly
• 4:56
  insolvent for years. They had 850,000 Bitcoin that
• 5:00
  had been stolen and undetected from 2011 to 2013.
• 5:05
  When they finally filed for bankruptcy in February of 2014,
• 5:08
  the headline was everywhere. Take a look.
• 5:11
  What was once one of the world's biggest Bitcoin exchanges, Mount
• 5:14
  Gox, has filed for bankruptcy protection in Japan.
• 5:17
  The unregulated exchange admitted to losing 850,000
• 5:21
  bitcoins worth more than $450 million due to some weakness in
• 5:25
  the system, said chief executive Mark Carpellis. 750,000 of those
• 5:30
  lost bitcoins belong to customers, while 100,000 were
• 5:33
  the companies. The announcement of the hacking
• 5:35
  comes after a tumultuous few weeks from Mountain Gox, which
• 5:38
  has remained silent after halting trades of the digital
• 5:41
  currency. Carpalis bowed an apology during
• 5:44
  a news conference at the Tokyo District Court, but said the
• 5:46
  overall Bitcoin industry is healthy and will keep growing.
• 5:50
  The Times reports that Bitcoin prices on the Coin Dex Index
• 5:53
  we're down Friday morning. Mark Carpalis, the CEO of Mount
• 5:56
  Gox, which was the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the world at
• 5:59
  the time, told the world that he lost 850,000 Bitcoin.
• 6:04
  Bitcoin fell from $11163 to $152 like that, down 87%.
• 6:10
  The longest Bitcoin bear market in history. 48 months.
• 6:14
  Bitcoin fell from $11163 to $152, down 87%.
• 6:19
  That was the longest Bitcoin bear market in history.
• 6:22
  It was 48 months. That was a cold winter.
• 6:24
  What happened next? Bitcoin hit $20,000 in December
• 6:27
  of 2017 from $152. That's a 13,000% recovery,
• 6:33
  13,000% Now real quick, because we're talking about history
• 6:37
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• 6:42
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• 7:00
  connectedthatssat123.com promo code simply now. 2017 is what
• 7:06
  brought most people into Bitcoin, myself included.
• 7:09
  Everyone has a story from this cycle.
• 7:11
  Bitcoin ran from $900 in January to $20,000 by December.
• 7:15
  That's a 2100% increase in one calendar year.
• 7:19
  Icos were raising hundreds of millions of dollars for
• 7:23
  technical shit. Your neighbor was a crypto
• 7:25
  expert and CNBC was doing daily segments.
• 7:28
  Then 2018 happened. The SEC announced it was coming
• 7:31
  for Icos. Exchange hacks happened in
• 7:33
  north-south Korea and Japan, and the froth drained out fast.
• 7:38
  Bitcoin fell from $20,000 to $3200 over the course of the
• 7:42
  year, down 84%. South Korea's intelligence
• 7:46
  agency says it has evidence showing North Korea was behind 2
• 7:51
  hack attacks on the country's cryptocurrency exchanges earlier
• 7:54
  this year. The National Intelligence
• 7:57
  Service says North Korea is suspected of stealing the
• 8:00
  personal information of some 30,000 people registered with
• 8:05
  Bitsum in June and robbing virtual money from Coinys in
• 8:10
  September. It says malicious code used by
• 8:13
  the North Korean group behind the 2000, 1014 Sony Pictures
• 8:16
  hack was discovered in both cases.
• 8:19
  Respective economist Nouriel Roubini testified before the
• 8:22
  United States Senate that Bitcoin was the mother of all
• 8:25
  bubbles. Forbes.
• 8:26
  Bloomberg. The same headlines, the same
• 8:28
  certainty, the same track record of being wrong.
• 8:31
  What happened next? Three years later, Bitcoin hit
• 8:34
  $69,000 from 3200. That's a 2000% recovery. 2022.
• 8:40
  This one hurts because the causes were institutional.
• 8:42
  In May, Terra Luna USD lost its peg.
• 8:46
  The whole algorithmic stable coin system collapsed in 72
• 8:50
  hours, 45 billion in value gone. Luna went from $119 to
• 8:55
  effectively 0. Following a day in which
• 8:58
  teetering stable coin Terra USD bounced around $0.90, it resumed
• 9:03
  its freefall overnight to approach $0.30, before
• 9:05
  recovering partly to $0.43 this morning and $0.64 this
• 9:10
  afternoon. However, this performance could
• 9:12
  be considered downright bullish when compared to Luna, the token
• 9:16
  designed to maintain its $1.00 peg, which has now fallen below
• 9:19
  $2.00. Luna is down a staggering 98% in
• 9:23
  the past five days, which has seen its market capitalization
• 9:27
  lose $25 billion this week. A lot of people got wiped out in
• 9:30
  this time. The contagion spread like a
• 9:32
  virus. 3 Arrows Capital went bankrupt, then Celsius, then
• 9:35
  Voyager, and then in November, FTX, the second largest crypto
• 9:41
  exchange in the world, imploded. Sam Bankman Freed had been
• 9:45
  secretly using customer funds for trading $8 billion missing.
• 9:49
  So we got arrested. What do we know about how Sam
• 9:53
  Bankman Freed effed up in his words?
• 9:55
  Yeah, he did tell investors that and he would be extremely
• 9:58
  grateful. He asked investors if they would
• 10:00
  step in and help fill this hole. It's an $8 billion hole in FT XS
• 10:05
  balance sheet that is bigger than the size of Robin Hood's
• 10:08
  entire market value. And remember, last year alone,
• 10:11
  they raised $2 billion in six months from investors from a
• 10:16
  Sequoia who had marked down the value of of its entire stake and
• 10:19
  had doubled down on its bet. Skybridge was in many levels of
• 10:23
  series rounds here. The Paul Tudor Jones family was
• 10:27
  in other rounds as well. There's investors really around
• 10:31
  the globe that were exposed to this.
• 10:32
  And so listen, going back to investors is very difficult.
• 10:35
  He'll need about $4 billion, according to our reporting.
• 10:39
  And whether he can get that or not, he would likely have to
• 10:42
  file for bankruptcy protection if he can't get that money.
• 10:45
  There's a lot of question about the ramifications here for more
• 10:48
  FTX in the industry at large. I think Jim Bianco put it well
• 10:51
  in a call we had yesterday that there's a real risk here that
• 10:54
  dozens of firms will fail on the back of this, given that they
• 10:57
  had their accounts with FTX. So you have consumers both on
• 11:00
  the institutional side, potential miners, brokerages
• 11:03
  that may not be able to get their money back, as well as
• 11:06
  customers who have lost billions of dollars here.
• 11:08
  So unless the industry came in and bailed them out, again,
• 11:12
  remember, This is why JP Morgan thinks that there's going to be
• 11:14
  more risk here at play and more margin calls.
• 11:17
  There's a real risk here that there is nobody to save the day
• 11:20
  for FTX, meaning others will feel pressure from this.
• 11:24
  Bitcoin fell from $69,000 to $15,000, down 77%.
• 11:29
  This time the obituaries had actual ammunition, not just
• 11:33
  Bitcoin is volatile. Actual fraud, actual criminal
• 11:36
  charges, actual victims. The Bitcoin is dead count hit
• 11:40
  new records. What happened next After that,
• 11:43
  though, 16 months later, driven by the first spot Bitcoin ETF
• 11:47
  approvals, Bitcoin broke $69,000 and kept going.
• 11:50
  It hit $109,000 in early 2025, from $15,000 to $109,000.
• 11:57
  That's a 604% recovery in 16 months.
• 12:01
  Now let's pause here for a second, because if you're new to
• 12:03
  Bitcoin and this crash is freaking you out, I want you to
• 12:06
  hear this part. Every single crash that I just
• 12:08
  described, the people who got hurt the worst were the ones who
• 12:11
  left their Bitcoin on an exchange that they didn't
• 12:14
  control. Mount G, Ox, FTX, Voyager,
• 12:18
  etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. All of them were exchange
• 12:21
  failures, not Bitcoin failing exchanges failing.
• 12:24
  Our partners at the Bitcoin Way exist for this exact reason.
• 12:27
  They'll walk you through self custody simply, safely, wherever
• 12:31
  you're starting from. Go to thebitcoinway.com right
• 12:34
  now. You can book a free 30 minute
• 12:35
  consultation at the bitcoinway.com/beyond Bitcoin.
• 12:40
  There's no pitch, there's no pressure, just real people
• 12:43
  trying to help you out. They've been through this
• 12:45
  before. That's the bitcoinway.com/beyond
• 12:48
  Bitcoin. Here's what the bears keep
• 12:50
  saying this cycle, the four year cycle is broken.
• 12:52
  Institutional money changes the dynamics.
• 12:54
  It's too correlated to risk assets now.
• 12:58
  What's going on right now? Do you feel that this four year
• 13:00
  cycle is? Still, still resonant.
• 13:03
  I think we still have a four year cycle, but it's starting to
• 13:06
  become somewhat disjointed and it's reflective of the sheer
• 13:10
  amount of institutional flow that we've seen come in.
• 13:14
  So what that's done is it's created a natural liquidity pool
• 13:18
  and, and, and a base to stop, you know, what would have been
• 13:22
  traditional retail flow bringing Bitcoin down.
• 13:27
  And so, you know, yes, price has been volatile, but it's nowhere
• 13:31
  near as volatile as it was. OK, here's what hasn't changed.
• 13:35
  A 21 million hard cap. Nobody's printing more.
• 13:38
  No FED can change that. No tariff touches it.
• 13:41
  It's fixed. It's absolute.
• 13:43
  It's forever. The network is stronger than any
• 13:45
  previous cycle. More hash rate, more nodes, more
• 13:48
  wallets, more developers. Every bear market burns the weak
• 13:51
  projects and leaves bitcoins infrastructure cleaner.
• 13:54
  Institutional adoption is higher than any previous cycle.
• 13:57
  BlackRock is running a spot ETF. Fidelity Strategy holds 3.4% of
• 14:02
  all the Bitcoin that will ever exist.
• 14:04
  This infrastructure didn't exist at any previous bottom.
• 14:07
  The floor is higher. Here's Sailor this month.
• 14:10
  The critics are saying his thesis is breaking, but listen
• 14:12
  to what he says. Well, most people don't
• 14:14
  understand how the Internet works, but they obviously use it
• 14:17
  every day. They don't understand how their
• 14:18
  iPhone is put together, but they use it.
• 14:20
  And it is like that video you mentioned of you holding the
• 14:23
  iPhone saying everybody's going to want this.
• 14:25
  And Stretch seems to be that product that addresses the main
• 14:29
  market need of not wanting volatility but wanting a stable
• 14:32
  cash dividend. You have a 2 plus year runway
• 14:35
  for it with cash. MSTR is still trading at a
• 14:38
  premium. You guys still are buying
• 14:40
  Bitcoin, but yet every time I see you on these news programs,
• 14:43
  it seems like they're expecting Bitcoin to go to zero.
• 14:47
  And you've gone from hero to Oh my gosh, what's happening?
• 14:51
  Bitcoins dying. Do you ever feel like they're
• 14:54
  rooting for you to fail? And how do you deal with like
• 14:56
  that swing in in sentiment? The struggle is real.
• 15:03
  The struggle is real, but you know, to be more serious, when
• 15:07
  Bitcoin is hitting all times high, all time highs, there's a
• 15:10
  sense of exuberance and, and all of the media terms positive and
• 15:15
  it's glowing and people are doing high fives.
• 15:18
  And when it draws down, there's a gloominess to it.
• 15:22
  And then and then people over forecast to the negative.
• 15:27
  I think that that it's the volatility that drives the
• 15:31
  engagement and the interest and the speculation and, and there's
• 15:36
  something to talk about and they're talking about us.
• 15:41
  You know, what they're not talking about is they're not
• 15:44
  talking about, you know, real estate on the Upper East Side of
• 15:48
  Manhattan. They're not talking about timber
• 15:51
  rights. They're not, you know, like
• 15:54
  people people they, they talk about all these non volatile
• 15:57
  assets. Well, non volatile assets means
• 16:00
  there's no news. And if there's no news, there's
• 16:02
  no interest. He's been through this before,
• 16:05
  multiple times, and every single time the thesis was called
• 16:08
  broken, so he bought more. That's not stubbornness, that's
• 16:11
  a conviction built on 16 years of the same pattern.
• 16:15
  Here's a clip of Sailor back in 2012 clearly explaining the
• 16:18
  issue. There's not an 8 year old on the
• 16:20
  planet that doesn't want an iPhone 5, right?
• 16:23
  Who wants to wait 42 seconds to watch something download instead
• 16:27
  of 2 seconds? Nobody, right?
• 16:30
  You don't have to be a genius to run Apple Computer.
• 16:32
  You just have to, every year, make the product a bit lighter,
• 16:35
  a bit more elegant, make it a better radio, make it a better
• 16:38
  battery. And then I sat with, you know,
• 16:42
  one of the 10 richest guys in the world for dinner three
• 16:46
  nights ago, five nights ago, and we had dinner for four hours and
• 16:49
  he didn't have to talk, you know, I didn't have to talking
• 16:52
  and at once. And he's much more successful
• 16:54
  than I am. I understand that, by the way.
• 16:57
  As I said, it's like it's you don't sometimes you got to do
• 17:00
  other things than just have opinions to make money, right?
• 17:03
  There's a lot of execution involved the rest, but I have
• 17:05
  opinions. So so he said to me, you know,
• 17:11
  Apple computer, can these guys hold their prices?
• 17:14
  You know, aren't you know, aren't they going to follow the
• 17:16
  model of the PC industry? Aren't their prices are going to
• 17:18
  taper down their 40% margin become 30 and 35 and 20.
• 17:22
  And it's another example. People just know enough to hurt
• 17:24
  themselves, right. If you go to France and this is
• 17:27
  the benefit of seeing enough you go to France you see Bernardo no
• 17:30
  runs a company LVMH they're selling handbags for 4000
• 17:35
  dollars 3000 dollars, $2500 each.
• 17:38
  This is a device that women view as fashion and it's 10,000 years
• 17:42
  old and for 10,000 years no, the prices are not lower after
• 17:46
  10,000 years if you actually. Things that are genuinely
• 17:50
  valuable don't follow skeptics, predictions, great brands, hard
• 17:54
  assets, things with real properties that the market keeps
• 17:58
  rediscovering. Bitcoin's been around for 16
• 18:00
  years now, priced in any currency.
• 18:02
  It's not lower than when it started.
• 18:04
  It has died 477 times. The price is up roughly 10
• 18:07
  million percent from its first transaction.
• 18:10
  That's not luck. That's the pattern.
• 18:11
  So here are the recovery timelines.
• 18:13
  Crash by crash 2011. Crash 20 months to the new all
• 18:17
  time high 2013. Crash 48 months to the new all
• 18:20
  time high. That's the longest 2018.
• 18:22
  Crash 36 months to the new all time high 2022.
• 18:25
  Crash 16 months to the new all time high.
• 18:28
  The fastest yet. The recoveries are getting
• 18:30
  faster, not slower. And every cycle the
• 18:32
  institutional infrastructure gets deeper, the floor gets
• 18:35
  higher, the recovery accelerates.
• 18:37
  As I mentioned in my previous video, here's the fear and greed
• 18:39
  index right now. We hit extreme fear single
• 18:42
  digits earlier this cycle. That is where every prior
• 18:44
  recovery started. Every Bitcoin cycle has its
• 18:47
  moment, a point where, looking back, it was obvious where the
• 18:51
  fear was maximum. The headlines were screaming,
• 18:53
  and the person who didn't panic, or better, the person who
• 18:57
  bought, quietly changed the financial trajectory of their
• 19:01
  family. 2011 buyers made 570 X 2015 buyers made 130 X 2018
• 19:09
  buyers made 20 X 2022 buyers. They made 7X.
• 19:13
  We are here sitting at 47% off the $126,000 high.
• 19:18
  The obituary writers are actively firing up their chatty
• 19:21
  PTS, The four year cycle bears are loud running their AI agents
• 19:26
  and the Fear and Greed Index is reading extreme fear.
• 19:30
  But it's all a hallucination. Someone is about to be a 2026
• 19:34
  buyer. Is it you?
• 19:35
  Someone is going to tell their kids about this moment.
• 19:38
  You see where this is going right before we close, If you
• 19:41
  want to connect with people who have actually lived through
• 19:43
  every one of these crashes and kept holding, we're on the club
• 19:45
  orange.org app, formerly known as the Orange Pill app, Same
• 19:49
  community, new name. You can find me there.
• 19:52
  I'm at Oceans OSHINS, I'm on the app, Just my name.
• 19:56
  I read every message. So if this crash has got you a
• 19:59
  little rattled and if you want to hear from some people who are
• 20:02
  buying at $2.00 or $152 or $3200 or $15,000.
• 20:07
  Most people are right there. Club orange.org.
• 20:10
  My handle is Oceans. Again at oceans.
• 20:12
  So here's where we are right now.
• 20:14
  Bitcoin is down 47% from the all time high.
• 20:17
  That puts this draw down exactly in the middle of every previous
• 20:20
  crash. Smaller than 2011, smaller than
• 20:23
  2013, comparable to 2022. The obituary account is at 477.
• 20:29
  This crash will probably add a few more.
• 20:30
  The network is still running. Blocks are still being mined.
• 20:33
  Sailor is still buying. Institutional infrastructure has
• 20:35
  never been deeper. This is crash 477, and I'm sure
• 20:38
  it won't be the last. So the question was never if
• 20:41
  Bitcoin recovers. Every single piece of historical
• 20:43
  evidence says it does. The question is whether you're
• 20:45
  positioned for it when it does. 477 times someone was confident
• 20:49
  enough to write that Bitcoin was dead, and 477 times they were
• 20:53
  wrong. Not because they were stupid,
• 20:55
  Well, maybe, but because they were looking at the short term.
• 20:58
  They were looking at the chart, at the thing that just broke.
• 21:00
  They were looking at the fear, not the fundamentals.
• 21:03
  Bitcoin doesn't care about the short term.
• 21:05
  It's a fixed supply monetary network built to outlast every
• 21:08
  crash, every government, every central bank, and every economic
• 21:12
  cycle. The people who understood that
• 21:14
  clearly enough to hold or buy when the obituaries were being
• 21:18
  written, those people are fine. But the people writing the
• 21:20
  obituaries, they'll be writing in the next one too, I'm sure.
• 21:24
  So make sure you get out there and you study Bitcoin.
• 21:27
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• 21:29
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• 21:30
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• 21:35
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• 21:37
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• 21:40
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• 21:42
  If you like it, you don't like it, whatever you want.
• 21:44
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• 21:47
  Dance Bitcoin. That's RUNDANCE Bitcoin because
• 21:52
  I used to run and dance and I like Bitcoin.
• 21:55
  Anyway, until next time.