Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 6/4/26: Pratt Slips In LA Mayors Race, Lebanon Ceasefire Falls Apart, US Oil Reserves 22 Year Low

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6/4/26: Pratt Slips In LA Mayors Race, Lebanon Ceasefire Falls Apart, US Oil Reserves 22 Year Low · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

0:00
Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. I have an
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Speaker 3: amazing show for everybody today when we have Crystal.
0:37
Speaker 2: Indeed we do, so we're going to give you a
0:39
Speaker 2: little quick update on what is going on in California
0:42
Speaker 2: as ballots continue to roll in and apparently will for
0:44
Speaker 2: several weeks. I don't know in any case, so tell
0:47
Speaker 2: you what we know there, which is honestly not a lot.
0:49
Speaker 2: Trump has been asked if the ceasefire is still on
0:52
Speaker 2: given that we've had increased hostilities. Will show you his answer.
0:56
Speaker 2: Warpowers resolution passes in the House for the first time
0:59
Speaker 2: in a significant rebuke of the direction the President has
1:02
Speaker 2: taken the country in Scott Bessant was on Capitol Hill yesterday,
1:06
Speaker 2: Meige full of himself, trying to defend what has been
1:08
Speaker 2: done to this country in the world economically because of
1:10
Speaker 2: the Iran War. Trump actually taking a number of el's
1:14
Speaker 2: recently that we want to take a look on things
1:15
Speaker 2: like his ballroom backing off on some things on immigration.
1:18
Speaker 2: Kind of interesting, so we'll dig into that and see
1:21
Speaker 2: if we can tell what is happening there. There are
1:23
Speaker 2: mass protests in Albania over this very sketchy Jared Navanka
1:29
Speaker 2: deal they have acquired apparently, or at least they are
1:32
Speaker 2: trying to acquire their dream private island. How nice for them,
1:35
Speaker 2: but the people of Albania not super psyched about it.
1:38
Speaker 2: And Ken Clippenstein is going to join us to talk
1:40
Speaker 2: about the dear intocracy. Ted lu did a very effective
1:44
Speaker 2: job grolling Mark Ruby about Trump falling asleep all the time.
1:46
Speaker 2: But we also wanted to dig into this case of
1:48
Speaker 2: Tom Keen. He's a Republican congressman from New Jersey who
1:52
Speaker 2: has been missing in action for over three months now.
1:56
Speaker 2: He just got renominated, that he had his primary this week.
1:59
Speaker 2: Congradually to him wherever he is and what he is
2:02
Speaker 2: whatever he is doing. Zero transparency about this so very
2:05
Speaker 2: weird case going on there.
2:06
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he's been missing for literally like weeks. As
2:09
Speaker 3: you said, nobody knows where he is. What is staffer
2:12
Speaker 3: say where Tom is? There's no camera? Yeah, I'm like, bro,
2:15
Speaker 3: what are you dead? Mike Johnson?
2:16
Speaker 1: Are you a lie?
2:17
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson? History was like, he's working remotely. Yeah, that's
2:21
Speaker 2: not actually a thing when you're in Congress. You have
2:22
Speaker 2: to be in.
2:23
Speaker 3: Literally the only thing you can't do when you're in Congress,
2:27
Speaker 3: you can't work or vote remote.
2:29
Speaker 1: They even tried during COVID and they wouldn't do that.
2:31
Speaker 1: So yeah, sure that's where we are. Thank you.
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Speaker 3: people find the show. But let's get with a little
3:02
Speaker 3: bit of California update.
3:04
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I just wanted to quickly update you guys
3:06
Speaker 2: on whether the numbers stand this morning and how things
3:08
Speaker 2: are looking. We can put a one up on the
3:10
Speaker 2: screen so you all remember, California has this jungle primary system,
3:14
Speaker 2: so this was the primary, but everybody Democrat, Republican runs
3:18
Speaker 2: in the primary and then the top two go on
3:21
Speaker 2: to the general election. So here is where things stand
3:24
Speaker 2: as of now. It continues to be Steve Hilton the
3:26
Speaker 2: Republican in first place with twenty seven point six percent,
3:30
Speaker 2: jaby Or Bessara in second place with twenty five point
3:32
Speaker 2: six percent, and Tom Steyer in third place at nineteen
3:36
Speaker 2: point eight percent. However, as more and more ballots have
3:41
Speaker 2: come in, Stier has been closing the gap. Besarah has
3:45
Speaker 2: been surging into the lead. It looks very much Besarah
3:48
Speaker 2: has already been declared. You know he's going to be
3:50
Speaker 2: able to go on to the general election. He is
3:53
Speaker 2: likely to be first, obviously second right now, but the
3:56
Speaker 2: ballot trends show that it is almost impossible for Steve
3:59
Speaker 2: Hilton to maintain that first place that he stands in
4:02
Speaker 2: right now. And so as these ballots have continued to
4:05
Speaker 2: be counted, Steyer has been closing the gap. Now I'll
4:09
Speaker 2: show you some of the math in a moment. It's
4:11
Speaker 2: still going to be tough for him to be able
4:13
Speaker 2: to fully close that gap and not Kilton out of
4:15
Speaker 2: that second place and have two Dems going into the
4:18
Speaker 2: general election. But the later ballots have favored him significantly,
4:23
Speaker 2: and they have found in California there are a lot
4:28
Speaker 2: more ballots outstanding than were initially estimated and anticipated. Let
4:33
Speaker 2: me go ahead and put a two up on the screen.
4:35
Speaker 2: Very similar dynamic here in the Ala mayoral race. Karen
4:40
Speaker 2: Bass has secured the top spot. She again has already
4:43
Speaker 2: ap and whoever has declared okay, she will advance. And
4:47
Speaker 2: then the question is the number two spot. So as
4:49
Speaker 2: of right now, Spencer Pratt is in second place thirty percent.
4:53
Speaker 2: Nthia Rahman, who's the left wing. She's not actually back
4:56
Speaker 2: by DSA, but she is sort of like DSA ish anyway,
4:59
Speaker 2: she has twenty three percent, and like in the California
5:02
Speaker 2: governor's race, as the ballots are counted, these later ballots
5:06
Speaker 2: that are being counted favor her, so she too is
5:10
Speaker 2: closing the gap with Spencer Pratt. The dynamic is very
5:14
Speaker 2: similar in terms of expectation of who was going to
5:16
Speaker 2: make it into the top two. Predictably, Republicans Ron DeSantis
5:21
Speaker 2: and Trump and others have been, you know, finding this
5:24
Speaker 2: very suspicious. We can put a three up on the
5:26
Speaker 2: screen to Santus implying that this is fraudulent. This is
5:30
Speaker 2: not the case people were predicting ahead of time. Basically,
5:33
Speaker 2: the dynamic here, Sager, is that Republicans knew who their
5:36
Speaker 2: candidates were, Like, if you were a Republican, you knew
5:38
Speaker 2: you were voting for Spencer pratte in La. Whereas Democrats
5:41
Speaker 2: had a whole bunch of candidates. A lot of people
5:43
Speaker 2: were kind of waiting to see what was going to
5:46
Speaker 2: shake out in the race, if they needed to strategically
5:48
Speaker 2: vote for one candidate or another if someone surged late.
5:51
Speaker 2: So the Democratic ballots came in later and were more
5:55
Speaker 2: likely to happen in either the late mail or on
5:58
Speaker 2: election day. Very similar dynamic for governor. Steve Hilton was
6:02
Speaker 2: very clearly the leading Republican candidate. He was backed by Trump,
6:06
Speaker 2: and so Republicans have known for a long time there
6:08
Speaker 2: is another Republican in the race, but he fell off
6:10
Speaker 2: a while ago, so it was clear like Steve Hilton
6:13
Speaker 2: was the guy you were going to vote for. And
6:14
Speaker 2: so very similarly, and it also seems that Tom Steyers
6:17
Speaker 2: are searched at the end even visa VI Javier Bisera,
6:20
Speaker 2: so very similar dynamic here, analysts were predicting this. There
6:23
Speaker 2: is nothing sketchy about this. Yes, it sucks that California
6:26
Speaker 2: has the system that takes weeks and weeks. That's another
6:29
Speaker 2: conversation for another day. But we all knew that going
6:31
Speaker 2: in and that is how California always does things. In fact,
6:34
Speaker 2: they have changed some of the rules to make it
6:36
Speaker 2: so that it hopefully goes a little bit faster, but
6:38
Speaker 2: still unconscionable that it's going to be probably at least
6:42
Speaker 2: another week before we really know who is going to
6:44
Speaker 2: move on.
6:44
Speaker 3: It's not to yeah, exactly, And you know, look, I'm
6:47
Speaker 3: pro mail invalid. I know that it's not popular with
6:49
Speaker 3: a lot of conservative people. Yeah, but it's because I
6:52
Speaker 3: like voter participation. But the problem with California is I
6:55
Speaker 3: didn't realize all these convoluted ass rules that they have
6:59
Speaker 3: around on balloting, where they have to signature, verify, they
7:02
Speaker 3: have to match, they have to give the ability of
7:05
Speaker 3: the voter to have a response. And then the way
7:07
Speaker 3: that even with the postmark the previous system was nuts
7:10
Speaker 3: where you had to what is a postmark ballot as
7:12
Speaker 3: of election day that comes in. I know things changed
7:14
Speaker 3: because of the Supreme Court ruling, but they didn't update
7:17
Speaker 3: their election infrastructure. Now currently, I will say, as you
7:20
Speaker 3: just said, David Dahan had flagged earlier that a lot
7:23
Speaker 3: of Democrats held their ballots until very very late. It
7:26
Speaker 3: is you know, we should say, let's put a five
7:28
Speaker 3: up there on the screen. It's not a lock for
7:30
Speaker 3: Tom Steyer necessarily. So he points out here, based on
7:34
Speaker 3: our this is Zachary Danini, based on our current Turtle
7:37
Speaker 3: turnout estimate, roughly fifty two point seven percent of the
7:39
Speaker 3: vote was early, forty seven percent will be late counted ballots.
7:42
Speaker 3: Hilton carried the early vote by eight point two which
7:45
Speaker 3: means Steyer needs to run about seventeen point two points
7:48
Speaker 3: better than Hilton statewide to overtake him. However, because if
7:51
Speaker 3: Democratic leaning counties are expected to make up a larger
7:54
Speaker 3: share of the outstanding vote, our county adjusted estimate is
7:57
Speaker 3: that Steyer needs to improve by about fifteen point five
8:00
Speaker 3: five points within each county. So far, he has improved
8:03
Speaker 3: by a weighted average of ten point five short of
8:05
Speaker 3: the pace he likely needs, but still a strong shift
8:07
Speaker 3: in that direction. Only about four percent of the late
8:10
Speaker 3: mail and balance even came in that was yesterday that
8:12
Speaker 3: he's poted, says, so the picture could change substantially larger
8:15
Speaker 3: batches tomorrow, So that's something to keep in mind. A
8:17
Speaker 3: six also for Nittzchet Ramen, I was reading a little
8:21
Speaker 3: bit about this.
8:22
Speaker 1: This is razor tight, so she says.
8:24
Speaker 3: He says, after tonight's votes remaining in La County, vote
8:27
Speaker 3: Hub has upped expected turnout to eight hundred and fifty
8:30
Speaker 3: thousand votes. This would leave three hundred and thirty three
8:32
Speaker 3: thousand votes remaining from La City, meaning Ramen would have
8:35
Speaker 3: to win them by pratt over eleven point two percent.
8:38
Speaker 3: Ramen had one today's drop that was yesterday's drop by
8:41
Speaker 3: about ten point four so if that is expected, it
8:44
Speaker 3: would basically mean it would bring her within around twenty
8:47
Speaker 3: seven hundred votes or a point three percent margin. So
8:50
Speaker 3: absolutely razor tight in terms of what all of that
8:53
Speaker 3: means for the LA election. Look, yeah, and I just
8:57
Speaker 3: want to reiterate what you said. I think it's nuts.
8:59
Speaker 3: It also does leave a significant amount. I mean, look,
9:03
Speaker 3: you know it's easy to imply with when that things
9:05
Speaker 3: are being cheated on when it literally takes weeks in
9:07
Speaker 3: order to count ballots, like we have got to change.
9:09
Speaker 3: This isn't New York the same way, I believe, Well,
9:12
Speaker 3: there's a rank choice. It was a little bit different,
9:14
Speaker 3: but it took it took a while, if I remember
9:16
Speaker 3: with the Democratic primary. But you know, it looks Brazil, India,
9:20
Speaker 3: I mean maybe the third world countries literally they're able
9:22
Speaker 3: to count ballots.
9:23
Speaker 1: And and put it out, you know, very very very quickly.
9:25
Speaker 3: India, you know the month, It actually take a month,
9:27
Speaker 3: and they still have the election day, like yeah, it
9:30
Speaker 3: takes forever. And it was the largest democracy and the
9:32
Speaker 3: large number of people who vote in the whole world,
9:34
Speaker 3: and they're still able to count ballots and there's there's
9:36
Speaker 3: not a lot of questions over there, like oh we
9:38
Speaker 3: were stolen or whatever.
9:39
Speaker 1: I get it.
9:40
Speaker 3: We live in a federalist system. You know, different states
9:42
Speaker 3: get to regulate how they will. But California, for our
9:44
Speaker 3: own sake, like, why would you want to run things
9:46
Speaker 3: this way? I just think it's totally nuts And.
9:47
Speaker 2: I get it.
9:48
Speaker 3: Mail in ballots that try to Oregon is the same way,
9:51
Speaker 3: which where they have all you know, mail in balloting.
9:53
Speaker 3: It's the smaller states, so they're able to do it
9:55
Speaker 3: a little bit easier. But please, you know, for our
9:57
Speaker 3: own sake, So especially if California or whatever become remotely competitive,
10:00
Speaker 3: can you imagine the level of the nuts, you know,
10:02
Speaker 3: madness that would happen something like that.
10:05
Speaker 1: It would be horrible.
10:06
Speaker 2: I mean, if Hilton and Pratt both end up after
10:08
Speaker 2: all of this getting knocked out or either of them,
10:10
Speaker 2: there's going to be a whole melt out over it.
10:12
Speaker 2: I mean, I get it. In California, they really err
10:15
Speaker 2: on the side of giving people every opportunity to vote
10:18
Speaker 2: up until the last minute. Actually, the Supreme Court just said,
10:20
Speaker 2: because they previously held that if you mail in your
10:23
Speaker 2: ballot before election day, then that counted. Now the Supreme
10:27
Speaker 2: Court says it has to be received by election day.
10:30
Speaker 2: So that should actually shorten the window. I don't know
10:32
Speaker 2: if that's you know, positive or not. It's you know,
10:35
Speaker 2: it's going to disenfranchise some number of voters. But in case,
10:37
Speaker 2: that should shorten the window. But they just air very
10:40
Speaker 2: strongly in the side of we'll give you every opportunity
10:42
Speaker 2: to vote. It seems like there should be some sort
10:43
Speaker 2: of happy medium here where the elections are counted in
10:46
Speaker 2: a reasonable time period, but also people.
10:48
Speaker 1: Can what I mean, I think two days, like I
10:50
Speaker 1: think two days and.
10:51
Speaker 2: Look it's the risonable amaze, you know why.
10:53
Speaker 1: It's the richest state.
10:54
Speaker 3: It literally in the country like a G seven nation
10:58
Speaker 3: for their economy. Spend the month, you know, Look it's
11:00
Speaker 3: a democratic state. They don't care about appropriating funds like
11:03
Speaker 3: whatever cost, just make it cost whatever it needs to
11:06
Speaker 3: so that we don't have to live this way.
11:08
Speaker 1: I think it's crazy, and it really, I genuinely.
11:10
Speaker 3: Think it does undermine a lot of people's faith because
11:13
Speaker 3: for a lot of people, like you said, if Pratt
11:14
Speaker 3: and Hilton end up losing after these like very very
11:16
Speaker 3: late things, people can accept losses on election day, but yeah,
11:20
Speaker 3: being declared losers or winners like a week later means
11:23
Speaker 3: of assent. Highly recommend the book about how Johnson stole
11:26
Speaker 3: the election in Texas. Happened just went on day six
11:29
Speaker 3: after a dump. So look, it's not like it's unprecedented
11:33
Speaker 3: in American history.
11:33
Speaker 2: Yeah, but just to be clear, there's no sign of this,
11:36
Speaker 2: and I know you're not saying that, but I just
11:37
Speaker 2: want to be really clear about that, because you do
11:39
Speaker 2: have the president who, not only in this election, but
11:41
Speaker 2: any election that doesn't go the way that he wants to,
11:43
Speaker 2: always claims that it's rigged, including in his own election
11:46
Speaker 2: twenty twenty. But eight seven up on the screen, already
11:48
Speaker 2: out there claiming that this is rigged. There's big cheating
11:52
Speaker 2: by the Democrats in California. Votes are all tied up,
11:55
Speaker 2: may not be in for weeks under investigation by the
11:58
Speaker 2: US Attorney's Office in elect Why the vote counting delay? Again,
12:02
Speaker 2: we all know why. This is not a mystery. It
12:05
Speaker 2: was not unexpected. This is the way that California conducts business.
12:09
Speaker 2: The last thing that I will say here with some
12:12
Speaker 2: shame in my voice, because I hate to cite these
12:14
Speaker 2: sorts of things, but just as an indicator of where
12:17
Speaker 2: the betting markets, oh our thinging that things are going.
12:20
Speaker 2: In the governor's race, they have Hilton at a seventy
12:25
Speaker 2: percent chance to move on. So they still have Styre
12:31
Speaker 2: at a thirty percent chance to be able to overcome
12:35
Speaker 2: Hilton and be in the top two, but the betting
12:37
Speaker 2: markets at least at this point are favoring Hilton hanging
12:40
Speaker 2: on to that number two slot. However, in the LA
12:44
Speaker 2: Mayor's race, and this really surged overnight, it's the reverse.
12:49
Speaker 2: They have Nithia Rahman favored at sixty nine percent to
12:54
Speaker 2: knock Spencer Pratt out of the top two and go
12:58
Speaker 2: on and move on to the general election. Spencer Pratt
13:01
Speaker 2: has a They have him at a Oh I'm sorry,
13:04
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the No, No, I'm right, I'm right,
13:06
Speaker 2: I'm right. It just surged in the last like overnight,
13:09
Speaker 2: and Pratt is at thirty three points six percent to
13:12
Speaker 2: be able to move on. So they're however, the vetters
13:15
Speaker 2: are looking at the odds. They're they're anticipating that Ramen
13:18
Speaker 2: is going to be over able to overtake prep.
13:21
Speaker 4: Yeah.
13:21
Speaker 3: Well I have some shame as well by even citing it,
13:23
Speaker 3: but yeah, I mean, yeah, there's been in the game, right, Yeah,
13:26
Speaker 3: who knows is getting the game, et cetera.
13:29
Speaker 2: For what we intentionally didn't make it in an element.
13:31
Speaker 1: Yes, that's right, we will.
13:32
Speaker 3: Not be giving that free advertising to these scumbags.
13:37
Speaker 1: Look, I don't know.
13:38
Speaker 3: I will say if both Hilton and Pratt are knocked out,
13:41
Speaker 3: that's a huge blow to California GOP. David Dayan was explaining,
13:46
Speaker 3: I didn't really realize, look, because I was like, why
13:48
Speaker 3: do they even care because it's not like they're going
13:50
Speaker 3: to win. Well, I mean maybe p I don't know,
13:52
Speaker 3: but at least with Hilton, like he's not going to win.
13:54
Speaker 3: What he explained is that they need a candidate on
13:57
Speaker 3: a statewide ballot because there's all these like propositions that
14:02
Speaker 3: are on the battle the bonaire billionaire attacks, but there's
14:04
Speaker 3: all kinds of other stuffy thought that they're like no, no, no, no,
14:07
Speaker 3: this actually we would have a chance potentially of winning.
14:10
Speaker 1: So we really need Pratt.
14:12
Speaker 3: You know, a candidate like Pratt which would potentially bring
14:15
Speaker 3: out not just Republicans in La County, but all of
14:17
Speaker 3: these like non voters, non traditional type social media, etc.
14:21
Speaker 3: Try and recreate some of the twenty twenty four stuff
14:24
Speaker 3: on top of all these I mean, look, I checked
14:26
Speaker 3: the data, thirty percent of LA voted for Trump, Like
14:29
Speaker 3: it's a decent amount.
14:30
Speaker 2: This is no yeah, this is Spencer Pratt discourse is
14:33
Speaker 2: kind of driven me crazy because I'm like, yeah, well
14:36
Speaker 2: the reason you're pointing out there's oh my god, it
14:38
Speaker 2: is like doing so well and it's like he never
14:41
Speaker 2: Paul even if he gets thirty percent. Yeah, that's just
14:43
Speaker 2: what Trump got in LA. Like, there are Republicans in LA.
14:47
Speaker 2: This is not some crazy unknown phenomena. So anyway, I
14:51
Speaker 2: feel like that has been missing. Also the fact that
14:53
Speaker 2: you need to want to get into a general election
14:56
Speaker 2: versus either Karen Bass or Nathia Rahman. You are going
14:59
Speaker 2: to get to because LA is overwhelmingly democratic and Republicans
15:03
Speaker 2: are losing in places like Texas and Ohio. You think
15:07
Speaker 2: you're going to win in LA in this year, Like
15:09
Speaker 2: it's not happening.
15:09
Speaker 3: So LA for US is like Texas for the Democrats,
15:12
Speaker 3: or maybe even more it's it's one of those where
15:14
Speaker 3: like we idealize it. It's like it's Los Angeles, the greatest,
15:17
Speaker 3: most beautiful city, and you're like, why do these people
15:19
Speaker 3: want to live in a failed state? We have a
15:21
Speaker 3: different system, But what we don't what we fail to
15:23
Speaker 3: realize is that many of us, and I'm telling you
15:25
Speaker 3: this as a Larry Elder guy, as a guy who
15:27
Speaker 3: fell for Larry.
15:29
Speaker 1: I really believed. I believed Larry Elder would win. Therefore,
15:32
Speaker 1: and then when.
15:34
Speaker 3: Gavin got sixty percent of it, I was like, Okay,
15:36
Speaker 3: I don't understand what's going on in California.
15:38
Speaker 1: You know what, I don't live there.
15:39
Speaker 3: So it's one of those where sometimes part of my
15:42
Speaker 3: general frustration with a lot of these races is that
15:44
Speaker 3: we have people who live in like Rochester, New York,
15:47
Speaker 3: who are like die Hard Spencer Praft, which is fine,
15:50
Speaker 3: I understand it, but at the end of the guys,
15:52
Speaker 3: we don't live there. If they want to live in
15:54
Speaker 3: their own filth, that's their own business at the end
15:57
Speaker 3: of the day. And you know, they probably hate the
15:58
Speaker 3: way that we live or the other places, so be it.
16:02
Speaker 1: That's that's the country.
16:04
Speaker 2: One last mentioned here, friend of the show, Rocanna, congressman
16:10
Speaker 2: of the show, who's most his friend just because he's
16:12
Speaker 2: the most willing to come on. He was challenged in
16:16
Speaker 2: the primary by this billionaire backed candidate Ethan Agarwall and
16:22
Speaker 2: you know, they put a bunch of money in or
16:24
Speaker 2: I don't remember who was posting about. He was boasting about,
16:27
Speaker 2: Oh he's going to defeat Rocanna, blah blah blah, and
16:30
Speaker 2: there was all this, you know, online chatter about this
16:32
Speaker 2: from the billionaire class. Right now, Agar Wall stands at
16:36
Speaker 2: six point.
16:36
Speaker 3: Two Indian Indian name maybe maybe he's a Christian.
16:43
Speaker 2: Maybe anyway, So that's that's how the billionaires did. And
16:48
Speaker 2: this is the this is their district, This is Silicon
16:51
Speaker 2: Valley that Rocanna represents. I mean, we never thought maybe
16:54
Speaker 2: they're going to be able to take.
16:55
Speaker 3: On understanding place because Schwycott, we had him here on
16:58
Speaker 3: the show. The guy spent what ten million dollars.
17:00
Speaker 2: Well, let me say something about that out he genuinely
17:04
Speaker 2: and this is per someone with knowledge of the campaign.
17:07
Speaker 2: As they say, the AOC thing fucked him over hardcore.
17:12
Speaker 2: They had polling leading up to that, and I think
17:13
Speaker 2: the Pelosi endorsement of Chan also, but they had polling
17:18
Speaker 2: that had him pretty much even with Scott Wiener and
17:21
Speaker 2: leading Connie Chan by quite a lot. And then once
17:24
Speaker 2: AOC wouldn't endorse him, and then sort of like you know,
17:28
Speaker 2: was low key throwing shade at him. They used that
17:31
Speaker 2: they put millions behind pumping that into the district. And
17:34
Speaker 2: you can understand why it would be impactful because he
17:37
Speaker 2: was really running on like I was AOC's chief of
17:39
Speaker 2: staff and that's my political identity, and I'm the progressive
17:42
Speaker 2: in the race. So it really really did damage him.
17:46
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean take from that what you will.
17:49
Speaker 2: And I also say, we'll say with Tom Steyer clearly, like,
17:52
Speaker 2: but Sarah is the corporate of all corporate candidates, like
17:55
Speaker 2: getting money from every industry you can possibly think of, right,
17:59
Speaker 2: was in the Biden administration, was one of the worst
18:01
Speaker 2: cabinet members in the entire Biden administration, which is pretty impressive.
18:05
Speaker 2: And Bernie and AOC neither one of them back Styre
18:09
Speaker 2: and if he narrowly loses out of the top two,
18:13
Speaker 2: you know, I think you point to them. You can also,
18:15
Speaker 2: of course, point to like Katie Porter staying in the
18:17
Speaker 2: race for no reason with no expectation that she's going
18:20
Speaker 2: to win and getting like her six percent or whatever.
18:22
Speaker 1: Yeah, there are a lot of Dems in Distroy stories
18:24
Speaker 1: out of California. Yeah, eactly.
18:26
Speaker 3: You know that district where none of the Dems would consolidate,
18:28
Speaker 3: and now the Republican and the independent are.
18:30
Speaker 2: It looks like it looks like a DEM is as
18:32
Speaker 2: the ballots are being counted going to end up in
18:34
Speaker 2: the top two. But there was a genuine principle they
18:37
Speaker 2: would get shut down in this very blue district because
18:41
Speaker 2: you had like eighty Democratic candidates and no one could
18:43
Speaker 2: like put their ego aside and consolidate. So yeah, it's
18:47
Speaker 2: yeah one partner.
18:47
Speaker 3: States are bad, guys, They really are bad. From Texas
18:51
Speaker 3: to California. There's it's just like, I don't know, there's
18:54
Speaker 3: something about it where this machine bread I saw like
18:57
Speaker 3: Madaglasis been like, oh, I really appreciate Sarah in a
19:00
Speaker 3: well run political machine.
19:01
Speaker 1: I'm like, guys, no, this is horrible.
19:03
Speaker 3: I'm like, he's literally the most anti charismatic politician.
19:06
Speaker 1: We played that clip with David Dan Yeah.
19:09
Speaker 2: One, I'm like, what the fuck? Yeah, where he's like,
19:13
Speaker 2: while no difficult questions, it's like, you're running for office.
19:17
Speaker 1: What is you want to be governor?
19:19
Speaker 2: Is unbelievable.
19:20
Speaker 3: You want to be governor of the most populous state
19:22
Speaker 3: in the Union with the G seven economy, and you
19:25
Speaker 3: don't want to answer a tough question. You want to
19:28
Speaker 3: be the governor of the entire state. I feel like
19:31
Speaker 3: I'm taking crazy pills. Like how many people live in
19:33
Speaker 3: California forty million? It's great anyway, all right, So now
19:37
Speaker 3: I'm turning one of those people who doesn't live in
19:38
Speaker 3: California and has too many opinions.
19:40
Speaker 2: It's an important state.
19:42
Speaker 1: We have topped. I love California.
19:44
Speaker 3: We have a big audience out in California. California.
19:47
Speaker 1: I'm always rooting for you, even if you're not rooting
19:49
Speaker 1: for yourself. Okay, let's get to BB.
19:53
Speaker 3: Turning down to BB and Donald Trump's with the latest
19:57
Speaker 3: updates on the cease fire. He was asked about yesterday
20:00
Speaker 3: in the Oval Office and definitely described what ceasefire means
20:04
Speaker 3: in the Middle Eastern context.
20:06
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
20:07
Speaker 2: This latest attack on Kuwait is the ceasfire with iron
20:10
Speaker 2: still on.
20:12
Speaker 5: Well, you know, there's a reason for everything. And we
20:15
Speaker 5: hit them pretty hard the night before and actually last night.
20:20
Speaker 5: And what always explained to me, I said, all right,
20:23
Speaker 5: so we'll do that.
20:24
Speaker 2: But we've been.
20:24
Speaker 5: Hitting them pretty hard pretty much the way it is.
20:29
Speaker 5: It's a different part of the world, you know, I'm
20:31
Speaker 5: saying that part of the world ceasefire is when you're
20:33
Speaker 5: shooting in a more moderate manner.
20:36
Speaker 3: Well, if you define it that way, yeah, I mean,
20:38
Speaker 3: technically true, it's the Israeli definition of seasfire, where you
20:43
Speaker 3: cease and they fire, right. It's just I guess though
20:45
Speaker 3: in this case the Iranians also get to continue firing.
20:48
Speaker 3: And you know, I mean, look, I laugh, it's not funny.
20:52
Speaker 3: A person was killed in that Kuwait International Airport attack.
20:55
Speaker 1: It's not a joke.
20:56
Speaker 3: I mean, people, you've got ships in the Straits of
20:59
Speaker 3: Hormuz which are being hit. You know, we didn't have
21:01
Speaker 3: this in the show, but I was reading about it
21:03
Speaker 3: this morning. Marco Rubio literally when he testified before Congress,
21:06
Speaker 3: I think they might have covered it.
21:07
Speaker 1: Yesterday he testified that a.
21:08
Speaker 3: Large portion of the straight up romos has been mined,
21:10
Speaker 3: and then Trump was asked about it, He's like, oh,
21:12
Speaker 3: there's no minds. I'm like, well, your Secretary of State
21:14
Speaker 3: just said that there were As we all know, demining
21:16
Speaker 3: the strait will take literally months because even if Ron
21:19
Speaker 3: knows where they are, not that easy to go and
21:21
Speaker 3: get us mind sweepers, not that simple to go and
21:24
Speaker 3: to get them out. So I'm just highlighting here where
21:26
Speaker 3: you know, we're stuck totally in stasis. There's a New
21:29
Speaker 3: Wall Street Journal story again out very very late last
21:32
Speaker 3: night where Alex Ward reported that Trump's, you know, current
21:36
Speaker 3: positioning is that unless an American soldier dies, that there
21:39
Speaker 3: will not be a resumption of full on war. Well,
21:43
Speaker 3: I mean that's not exactly like, that's not comforting in
21:46
Speaker 3: the sense where there's no pressure for a deal necessarily
21:49
Speaker 3: other than oil prices.
21:50
Speaker 1: They don't seem to care where it is all right now.
21:53
Speaker 3: And then at the same time, you have Trump basically
21:57
Speaker 3: desperate to maintain this current status quo without having to
22:00
Speaker 3: admit a complete failure in the war itself. And that's
22:03
Speaker 3: why you have him brushing off. I mean, it would
22:06
Speaker 3: be unthinkable to live in a world's Trump has become
22:09
Speaker 3: the archetype of what I remember all the neo cons.
22:11
Speaker 3: I'm ashamed to say I was even part of this
22:13
Speaker 3: crowd back in the day where you know Obama, you know,
22:17
Speaker 3: remember the Iranians like kidnapped all those sailors that drifted
22:20
Speaker 3: into water.
22:21
Speaker 1: It was like an international humiliation.
22:23
Speaker 3: John McCain and all these people were like, oh, we're
22:25
Speaker 3: the laughing stock of the world. Have you're on here
22:27
Speaker 3: firing ballistic missiles at KUWAITI at Kuwaitis at US air bases.
22:32
Speaker 3: Shooting in the straight up removes the entire straight of
22:34
Speaker 3: horn moves is closed. And he sits there and he's like, oh,
22:36
Speaker 3: it's not that big of a deal. The negotiations are
22:38
Speaker 3: proceeding carefully. I'm like, dude, like you, you know, Obama
22:42
Speaker 3: didn't even allow this level of humiliation, especially now after
22:46
Speaker 3: a war where you sought to destroy the entire regime.
22:49
Speaker 1: It's it's I mean, it's just such a disaster.
22:51
Speaker 3: I know, and I'm sorry it's repetitive, but it really is,
22:54
Speaker 3: like you just you have to marvel at it. Where
22:55
Speaker 3: the American president is like, yep, that just means we're
22:57
Speaker 3: shooting in a more moderate manner. It's like, wow, this
23:00
Speaker 3: is really bad for the continuation of this entire conflict.
23:03
Speaker 2: The JCPO is, in my opinion, the best thing that
23:05
Speaker 2: Obama accomplished in office, and Trump immediately ripped it up,
23:09
Speaker 2: and it's been you know, he's been a catastrophe on
23:12
Speaker 2: Iran policy ever since, and especially obviously with this all
23:16
Speaker 2: out war. But yeah, I mean, I guess I'm glad
23:19
Speaker 2: that he at least has this line of someone an
23:22
Speaker 2: American service member has to get killed before I go
23:24
Speaker 2: back to all out war. Although you know, what Iran
23:28
Speaker 2: is saying is they're not going to just tolerate this
23:31
Speaker 2: status quo where the US can you know, send a
23:34
Speaker 2: health fire missile at a cargo ship, an oil tanker
23:38
Speaker 2: and or you know, attack on Keshum Island or do
23:41
Speaker 2: whatever they want to do, and Iran is just going
23:43
Speaker 2: to escalate in kind. They're saying, no, if you hit us,
23:47
Speaker 2: we are going to hit back quite a lot harder.
23:49
Speaker 2: And so of course there's significant risk for American service
23:52
Speaker 2: members is very easy to imagine. In fact, it's rather
23:55
Speaker 2: miraculous that wore American service members have not been killed
23:58
Speaker 2: that we know of in you know, this war since
24:01
Speaker 2: it's beginning so hardly a comforting statement there from Trump,
24:04
Speaker 2: and it just shows you how much of a knife's
24:06
Speaker 2: edge this whole thing hangs on and how unsustainable the
24:09
Speaker 2: current status quo is, which is a good setup for
24:12
Speaker 2: Netanyahuo's call with Trump when you're saying about.
24:15
Speaker 3: It, Andyah, who was asked yesterday by CNBC, is it
24:19
Speaker 3: true that Trump cursed you out so I saved you
24:21
Speaker 3: from jail, that you everybody hates Israel and said, what
24:25
Speaker 3: the fuck do you think you're doing? He basically confirms it.
24:27
Speaker 3: Let's take a listen.
24:28
Speaker 6: Let's talk about the call that you had with him
24:30
Speaker 6: this week, which is getting a lot of attention. The
24:33
Speaker 6: President confirmed that, he said, you're effing crazy. How did
24:37
Speaker 6: you react to that? What really happened in that call?
24:40
Speaker 4: Well, I'm not going to get into details of our conversations.
24:42
Speaker 4: We've had thousands as well, a lot a lot of them,
24:45
Speaker 4: and if you think this is a crisis, you should
24:47
Speaker 4: be in some other conversations. But we've always found a way.
24:50
Speaker 4: We have so many agreements. We agree on the main things.
24:54
Speaker 4: We want to get Iran, the nuclear program in Iran finished.
24:57
Speaker 4: We want to make sure that Iran doesn't pose a
24:59
Speaker 4: thread to Israel, to the Middle East, to America, that
25:02
Speaker 4: it doesn't develop nuclear weapons and the means to deliver
25:05
Speaker 4: them not only to Israel and to every capital in Europe,
25:08
Speaker 4: but to every city in the United States.
25:10
Speaker 7: That's our common goal. That's what we set out to do,
25:13
Speaker 7: and to expand the circle of peace, as to the
25:15
Speaker 7: President and I did in the abram Ac courts together.
25:18
Speaker 7: So we have common goals. Sometimes we have as in
25:21
Speaker 7: the best of families, you have these tactical disagreements, we
25:24
Speaker 7: always find a way to work them out, and we
25:27
Speaker 7: do so as great friends. We can disagree in the
25:31
Speaker 7: morning and by the afternoon we have a common action.
25:34
Speaker 3: No there, you are just just like a family that
25:36
Speaker 3: argues sometimes. Trump also, by the way, just confirmed it
25:40
Speaker 3: outright when asked by the New York Post.
25:42
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen, did you speak team in US?
25:45
Speaker 5: I did? I wish angry. I was a little bit
25:48
Speaker 5: perturbed at his constantly fighting with Lebanon. You know, at
25:55
Speaker 5: some point I should be be we get a stept
25:59
Speaker 5: a step. But I have a very good relationship. We've
26:02
Speaker 5: done well, done well together. He always says we could
26:06
Speaker 5: never have done it, but everybody knows that we could
26:09
Speaker 5: have never done it with that the United States. But
26:11
Speaker 5: we've we've I've worked very well together. I like Baby
26:14
Speaker 5: a lot, and I've worked very well with him. We
26:16
Speaker 5: had a you know where I'm a wartime president, he's
26:20
Speaker 5: a wartime prime minister, very important part of the world,
26:24
Speaker 5: and I think we've done, you know, very well. We've
26:27
Speaker 5: We've got alone, very well together.
26:30
Speaker 1: It's like, yeah, I'm getting a little frustrated. With Lebanon
26:33
Speaker 1: and es I talked to him a little bit like that.
26:35
Speaker 3: The only question this is where the Biden stuff starts
26:38
Speaker 3: to become too clear.
26:40
Speaker 1: Where Oh Biden, you know, cursed.
26:42
Speaker 3: Him out behind the scenes, but the bear hug strategy
26:45
Speaker 3: hung up on him. Call me when we hold the
26:47
Speaker 3: weapons to Lady Israel, call me, all right, call me
26:50
Speaker 3: when something like that actually happens. Until then, it's very
26:53
Speaker 3: like the weapons flows continue. The Israel lobby remains incredibly
26:57
Speaker 3: powerful here in the US. You know, you found the
27:00
Speaker 3: story which I really found shocking. Let's put b three
27:02
Speaker 3: up there on the screen. This is from Haretz, from
27:04
Speaker 3: Israeli media, which aggregated actually Lebanese sources, and they say
27:08
Speaker 3: Israel has evaded six or seven ceasefire proposals that have
27:13
Speaker 3: been put forth in their talks between the US, Israel,
27:16
Speaker 3: and the government of Lebanon. The three size party to
27:19
Speaker 3: talks discussed their views regarding the end of the United
27:21
Speaker 3: Nations Interim Force in Lebanon's peacekeeping operations. But they say specifically,
27:25
Speaker 3: negotiators avoided committing to a comprehensive and immediate ceaspire after
27:29
Speaker 3: six or seven proposals were put together during Tuesday's US
27:33
Speaker 3: mediated talks that was as of yesterday. Now this does
27:37
Speaker 3: come on the heels of a new report actually out
27:41
Speaker 3: from the Lebanese government where they are claiming that a
27:45
Speaker 3: c spire has been reached between Hesbol, between Hesbola and Israel.
27:50
Speaker 1: But the details, you know, are very very sketchy.
27:53
Speaker 3: Look for example, they say that Hesbola has agreed not
27:55
Speaker 3: to attack Israel and also not to attack Israeli forces
27:58
Speaker 3: south of the Tawny River. You're effectively saying there that
28:02
Speaker 3: they're acquiescing to the de facto occupation of half of
28:05
Speaker 3: their country and a significant portion of their territory. If true,
28:09
Speaker 3: I don't really know how Hesbo could ever be a
28:11
Speaker 3: credible fighting force in the future if you were to
28:14
Speaker 3: agree to that diplomatically.
28:15
Speaker 2: Well, and Harretz this morning saying that the Hasibiala chief
28:19
Speaker 2: has rejected the ceasefire and Lebanon and a letter that
28:22
Speaker 2: was sent out to their followers, So yeah, you know,
28:26
Speaker 2: whatever negotiations have happened, I mean, and this is where
28:29
Speaker 2: to go back to this alleged phone call on whatever
28:31
Speaker 2: was said between Trump and Metnyahu, which really doesn't matter
28:34
Speaker 2: if there aren't corresponding actions like we have been in
28:37
Speaker 2: this place before, where Trump told Israel and posted on
28:42
Speaker 2: true social that you must stop now, you must stop
28:45
Speaker 2: attacking in Lebanon, and that'll hold for a couple of days,
28:49
Speaker 2: and then Israel go, oh, well they're attacking, we have
28:52
Speaker 2: to respond, and then they just escalate and escalate. So
28:56
Speaker 2: you know, until you see, okay, there's an actual ceasefire
28:59
Speaker 2: that's agreed to when actually holding, and Trump is willing
29:02
Speaker 2: to commit to putting the pressure on, applying the pressure
29:05
Speaker 2: that is required and keeping its focus on to continue
29:08
Speaker 2: to stop Israel attacking and Lebanon. You until we see that,
29:12
Speaker 2: I think everyone should be very very skeptical.
29:14
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree.
29:16
Speaker 3: Continuing here with what happened, let's put B four up
29:19
Speaker 3: there on the screen. Not a lot of the Western
29:21
Speaker 3: press paid attention, but Arachi, the Foreign Minister of Iran,
29:25
Speaker 3: sat for a long interview with Al Rba English that
29:29
Speaker 3: came out yesterday. I'm going to read some of the
29:31
Speaker 3: details here, which were released in English by the state
29:34
Speaker 3: Iran media.
29:35
Speaker 1: Our country's foreign minister.
29:36
Speaker 3: If Israeli aggression against Bairut continues, our armed forces are
29:39
Speaker 3: fully prepared to resume the war and target targets inside
29:42
Speaker 3: of Israel.
29:43
Speaker 1: So that's big news.
29:43
Speaker 3: They're basically saying, if they bomb Beyrout, then we're going
29:45
Speaker 3: to bomb Israel. Second, communication with the Americans has not
29:48
Speaker 3: been cut off. Messages continuing to be exchanged regarding the
29:51
Speaker 3: need to stop the aggression against Beyrout. But no tangible
29:55
Speaker 3: progress has been made in the negotiations process. I mean,
29:58
Speaker 3: that's a huge headline, which again the West press is
30:00
Speaker 3: really ignoring. If the Foreign Minister is saying, quote, no
30:03
Speaker 3: tangible progress has been made despite all of these protestations
30:06
Speaker 3: by Donald Trump, including this morning in reaction to a
30:08
Speaker 3: war powers vote where he said that we're actually near
30:11
Speaker 3: the finish line. Then return to the negotiating table is
30:14
Speaker 3: conditional on securing the rights of the Iranian people and
30:16
Speaker 3: end to the war in Lebanon and end to tensions
30:19
Speaker 3: in the region. And then finally, in the last forty days,
30:21
Speaker 3: the Americans have clearly seen Iran's power and capability in
30:24
Speaker 3: this war. So no tangible progress is by far the
30:27
Speaker 3: most important part of that. We do have this War
30:33
Speaker 3: Powers resolution passage. Let's put B nine up there on
30:36
Speaker 3: the screen. Trump reacting to the House of Representatives passing
30:39
Speaker 3: the War Powers Resolution.
30:41
Speaker 1: What he says is yesterday, in a meaningless.
30:43
Speaker 3: Vote, the House voted for bad Republicans and all Democrats
30:47
Speaker 3: to limit my war powers right in the middle of
30:49
Speaker 3: my final negotiations to end the war with the Islamic
30:51
Speaker 3: Republic of Iran. Who would do such an unpatriotic thing.
30:54
Speaker 3: They know where the negotiations stand. The Democrats are what
30:58
Speaker 3: is this whatever he keeps spelling in differently are field
31:01
Speaker 3: by Trump arrangement syndrome. They would rather have our country
31:03
Speaker 3: fail than give me another of my many victories. The
31:05
Speaker 3: four Republicans, that's a whole other story. They're grand standards.
31:08
Speaker 3: They should be ashamed of themselves. Maga President DJT. And
31:13
Speaker 3: this came, as I said, P eight up there, just
31:15
Speaker 3: to show you the first time that Congress actually just
31:18
Speaker 3: voted to circumvent Trump and to end the Iran war
31:21
Speaker 3: in the process. It would create conditions for a big
31:23
Speaker 3: legal battle if the Senate Democrats actually were to pass
31:26
Speaker 3: it along with some of the Republicans also to move
31:28
Speaker 3: it past the filibuster. As David says, it really is
31:31
Speaker 3: a big deal if we could actually get somebody in
31:33
Speaker 3: the Senate to vote for it. But thanks to John Fetterman,
31:36
Speaker 3: who previously had a chance earlier didn't pass, So there
31:40
Speaker 3: you go.
31:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you do have a number of Republican senators
31:43
Speaker 2: who either like Tom Tillis is going to be out
31:46
Speaker 2: of there, Susan Collins under a lot of pressure in Maine,
31:49
Speaker 2: so you know, and you've got a Rand Paul who's
31:51
Speaker 2: sort of skeptical of these things to begin with. So
31:54
Speaker 2: there are a number of them. What Cassidy who lost
31:58
Speaker 2: down in Louisiana, and I think he is probably a
32:00
Speaker 2: New yorkhon and ideologically aligned.
32:02
Speaker 1: With this, but voted for it.
32:04
Speaker 2: Anyway, there one of the risks of Trump's strategy of
32:07
Speaker 2: taking out some of the incumbent Republicans is then you
32:10
Speaker 2: have these lame duck Republicans who have nothing to lose,
32:12
Speaker 2: who are hanging out in there. And now there are
32:14
Speaker 2: a few of them. So it's not crazy to imagine
32:18
Speaker 2: you could have enough Republicans cross over the Senate too
32:20
Speaker 2: to make up for the fact that John Fetterman is,
32:23
Speaker 2: you know, constantly hoarding for war apparently. So in any case,
32:28
Speaker 2: the fact that it even got through the House is
32:29
Speaker 2: the significant message. And if it were to pass through
32:33
Speaker 2: the Senate, then Trump this is not something that Trump
32:37
Speaker 2: can veto. This is because of the way the War
32:40
Speaker 2: Powers Act is structured. They just have to pass it
32:43
Speaker 2: through the House and the Senate. And what David Serota
32:46
Speaker 2: there at the lever is pointing to is the fact
32:48
Speaker 2: that that would then set up this gigantic legal battle
32:50
Speaker 2: because the process for this has never really been fully
32:54
Speaker 2: litigated through the courts, and certainly it would be challenged
32:58
Speaker 2: and then you know whether or not the and that
33:00
Speaker 2: will take forever. And we all know that in the
33:03
Speaker 2: meantime Trump will just continue to go and do whatever
33:05
Speaker 2: he wants to do so but in any case, it's
33:08
Speaker 2: more important as sort of a political message and a
33:10
Speaker 2: sign of the discomfort, increasing discomfort even of Republicans who
33:14
Speaker 2: see the gas prices and see the upset and see
33:17
Speaker 2: their own polls tanking, that this was able to pass
33:20
Speaker 2: the House and have a shot in the Senate.
33:22
Speaker 1: No question.
33:22
Speaker 3: And last thing, let's put B seven up here just
33:25
Speaker 3: as a final reminder. Look, everybody knows this, but I
33:28
Speaker 3: read this with great interest. Wargames and warnings on the
33:31
Speaker 3: Strait of Hormuves when unheeded by Trump, so one of
33:33
Speaker 3: the long held talking points by the administration was that
33:37
Speaker 3: they were fully prepared for what was going to happen.
33:39
Speaker 3: Everybody knows that that's not true, but it very clearly
33:43
Speaker 3: says in here that the war games that were conducted
33:46
Speaker 3: routinely by the Pentagon had always predicted the straight of
33:50
Speaker 3: Horm Moves would be closed by Iran. They concluded they
33:53
Speaker 3: would respond to a major American attack by closing the
33:55
Speaker 3: Straight of Horm Moves. They flagged it for the top
33:58
Speaker 3: leadership over at the Everybody knew it. It was definitely
34:02
Speaker 3: told to to Trump before the war happened, and they
34:06
Speaker 3: just thought it wouldn't happen. A quote A look back
34:08
Speaker 3: makes clear Trump underestimated Iran's ability to shut down the
34:11
Speaker 3: Strait and overestimated America's ability to reopen it if necessary.
34:15
Speaker 3: While the White House is not disclosed the details of
34:17
Speaker 3: its planning, experts and former officials say they publicly available
34:20
Speaker 3: evidence suggests several likely culprits. I would say number one
34:23
Speaker 3: is just their general lack of in their general lack
34:27
Speaker 3: of faith that the Iranians could mount any real military defense.
34:30
Speaker 3: But two is just drones. I think drones changed everything.
34:33
Speaker 3: And what is so unforgivable about the drone that what
34:38
Speaker 3: happened with the drones is that we literally all watch
34:42
Speaker 3: this every day on the battlefield in Ukraine, every single day.
34:46
Speaker 3: I log onto telegram every day. But you know why
34:48
Speaker 3: to say a breast of exactly things like this, I mean,
34:50
Speaker 3: these new drone killers that the Russians, it's craziness. Drones
34:54
Speaker 3: wine on the sky Russian guys, but you know, some
34:56
Speaker 3: sort of anti drone killer which shoots up and I
34:59
Speaker 3: mean it's like science fiction which is out there. Just
35:01
Speaker 3: see what happened in Saint Petersburg yesterday. The Ukrainians bombed
35:05
Speaker 3: I mean literally Saint Petersburg, like one of the crown
35:07
Speaker 3: jewel cities of Russia and a major oil refinery, you know,
35:11
Speaker 3: totally on fire.
35:12
Speaker 1: So first of all, that's nuts, you know, just from a.
35:16
Speaker 3: Right exactly when you're attacking a nuclear arm power. But two,
35:19
Speaker 3: I mean, Josh, look like Russia not exactly like a
35:23
Speaker 3: third rate military power. Uh, you know, clearly like a
35:26
Speaker 3: second world country at best, a decent amount of investment.
35:30
Speaker 1: Now five years to think about drones.
35:32
Speaker 3: They can't protect their flagship cities from Ukrainian drones. So
35:36
Speaker 3: this is very obvious and it's one of the reasons
35:39
Speaker 3: why our forces have to stay so far away from
35:41
Speaker 3: Iran has all these logistical problems as part of the
35:43
Speaker 3: reason that the bases have all been under attack. The
35:46
Speaker 3: Kuwaiti International Airport, we have a video of that. Actually,
35:49
Speaker 3: can we put B five here on the screen just
35:51
Speaker 3: to show you again, like this is really scary. We
35:54
Speaker 3: have the vo This is the Kuwaiti Airport which was damaged.
35:58
Speaker 3: All of this is drones. To be clear, the Iranians
36:01
Speaker 3: are saying that it was a misfired Patriot interceptor that
36:05
Speaker 3: caused this damage.
36:06
Speaker 1: Syncom says, that's not true.
36:08
Speaker 3: You believe who you want, but I mean regardless, you know,
36:11
Speaker 3: you look inside of this. This is an international airport terminal,
36:13
Speaker 3: so fires, people are as, somebody died and several people
36:17
Speaker 3: were injured. Eight people were injured in Flights were suspended
36:19
Speaker 3: I think for about twenty four hours or so, just
36:22
Speaker 3: to show you again the drone threat.
36:23
Speaker 1: But I mean, that is what terrifies me more than anything.
36:26
Speaker 3: Watching the battlefield in Ukraine is just the amount and
36:29
Speaker 3: then even these f the FPB footage that Ryan and
36:32
Speaker 3: Emily played from Hesbola.
36:34
Speaker 1: You know, I don't want to see that. I really
36:36
Speaker 1: don't think about from the old.
36:37
Speaker 2: Guys, fiber optic cables, you know, drones that are in
36:40
Speaker 2: that way they can't be jammed, and it's this little,
36:43
Speaker 2: you know, tiny wire that they're connected to. And then
36:46
Speaker 2: you've got a drone operator who's able to you know,
36:49
Speaker 2: just they're like one way attack drones. And Hesbel has
36:52
Speaker 2: been able to mess Israel up pretty good in terms
36:55
Speaker 2: of this fight, and obviously Israel is one of the
36:57
Speaker 2: top militaries. We give them everything that we have, et cetera,
37:00
Speaker 2: or almost everything that we have, and it's been really
37:04
Speaker 2: quite deadly and damaging for them. They're sort of bogged down.
37:07
Speaker 3: Okay, let's get to Econ. Turning now to the economy,
37:12
Speaker 3: the Treasure. Treasury Secretary Scott Beston testified before Congress yesterday,
37:17
Speaker 3: assuring Americans that inflation is just a slight blip.
37:20
Speaker 1: He was also asked.
37:21
Speaker 3: About Trump's infamous comments about how he doesn't care about
37:24
Speaker 3: American's financial situation.
37:25
Speaker 8: Let's take a listen, Secretary Beston. In May, the President
37:28
Speaker 8: said that he does not think about americans financial situations.
37:34
Speaker 8: Do you think about the financial situation of the American people?
37:37
Speaker 9: I do, And as the ranking member distorted my statement,
37:40
Speaker 9: as he often does. I had prefaced my statement with
37:45
Speaker 9: we understand that these are challenging times for the American people,
37:49
Speaker 9: that we will get over this, and that at present,
37:52
Speaker 9: the average household has paid about two hundred dollars more
37:55
Speaker 9: in gasoline.
37:56
Speaker 10: Well, let's wait, we think about this every day.
37:59
Speaker 8: Well, I'm glad that you do. Do you think your
38:01
Speaker 8: boss should too?
38:03
Speaker 10: I believe his was take remarks were taken out of context.
38:08
Speaker 8: No, look, but here's what he said. He said, quote,
38:10
Speaker 8: I don't think about American's financial situation. I don't think
38:14
Speaker 8: about anybody. So I'm asking you, that's the direct quote.
38:18
Speaker 8: Do you think about how the American people are paying
38:20
Speaker 8: more for gas, groceries, and utilities? Since the President clearly
38:24
Speaker 8: said he didn't, and you speak with the President regularly,
38:28
Speaker 8: are you trying to tell him the truth about how
38:30
Speaker 8: much costs have increased for the American people?
38:33
Speaker 9: Well, Senator, I'm going to have to disagree with you
38:35
Speaker 9: on some of that, because I have groceries are going down,
38:38
Speaker 9: and to be clear, since President Trump took office, food
38:41
Speaker 9: price food prices, or as many people like to call them,
38:45
Speaker 9: groceries food at home.
38:46
Speaker 10: In the statistical data ends up two point five.
38:49
Speaker 8: When's the last time you were in a grocery store?
38:51
Speaker 8: Is my husband and I were just in one.
38:53
Speaker 1: And look the average grantede.
38:54
Speaker 8: Stater, the average granted stater is paid. Let me be clear,
38:59
Speaker 8: the average Granite state has paid three thousand dollars more
39:02
Speaker 8: since Donald Trump took office for basic goods and services.
39:06
Speaker 1: Meanwhile, the country you.
39:07
Speaker 8: Lost one hundred thousand manufacturing jobs in twenty twenty five.
39:12
Speaker 8: So do you tell the president this information or not?
39:15
Speaker 9: Again, Senator, they except for inflation, which is I believe
39:18
Speaker 9: going to be a short term blip, the economic data
39:21
Speaker 9: is very strong.
39:23
Speaker 2: Except for inflation, the data is very economic data, very strong.
39:27
Speaker 1: I believe that's Maggie Hassen right.
39:29
Speaker 3: Grantited state is New Hampshire, so they don't even have
39:31
Speaker 3: sales tax, so those people are actually doing even better
39:33
Speaker 3: than the rest of us.
39:34
Speaker 1: But yeah, man, this is I just don't know how.
39:37
Speaker 3: They can possibly think they could get away with this
39:40
Speaker 3: talking point.
39:41
Speaker 1: Except for inflation. Imagine if Biden said that, they.
39:44
Speaker 3: Would destroy that absolutely, I mean, and it's like they've
39:47
Speaker 3: recreated all of the problems of Bidenomics, except this time
39:51
Speaker 3: it's genuinely entirely their fault whenever it comes to the
39:54
Speaker 3: Iran war, and they won't acknowledge it. They're like, nope,
39:57
Speaker 3: everything is perfectly okay on the oil front.
40:00
Speaker 2: And the numbers are worse too, just to be clear,
40:02
Speaker 2: I mean, because we have the inflation, but also during
40:04
Speaker 2: the Biden partly, you know, we're coming out of the
40:06
Speaker 2: COVID recovery and there was a lot of simula spending,
40:08
Speaker 2: but job growth was going bananas, you know, I mean
40:11
Speaker 2: this is now we have this wagesnemic, anemic job growth. Yeah,
40:15
Speaker 2: wages are now back behind inflation whereout you know, we
40:18
Speaker 2: turned that corner during the Biden administration. And to your point,
40:22
Speaker 2: it's all because of Trump's own economic decision making, which
40:27
Speaker 2: which by the way, he's got a new tariff scheme
40:30
Speaker 2: that he's implement implementing as well at this same time,
40:33
Speaker 2: because that's based on you know, human rights and protecting
40:36
Speaker 2: against forced labor, which we all know is something he
40:38
Speaker 2: really deeply hears about.
40:39
Speaker 1: Well very fordmitted too.
40:40
Speaker 3: It's only because forced labor is one of those provisions
40:43
Speaker 3: in the law which they passed, which is they're able
40:45
Speaker 3: to implement tariffs. My wife actually used to work exclusively
40:48
Speaker 3: on this, and I was asking her about this, She's like, yeah,
40:50
Speaker 3: this is insane. We can put C seven up there
40:53
Speaker 3: on the screen. Trump to impose tariffs on dozens of
40:56
Speaker 3: nations citing claims of forced label a labor. A total
40:59
Speaker 3: of sixty trade partners, including the EU, China, Japan, and.
41:02
Speaker 1: Britain would be affected.
41:05
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm sure they have a lot of forced
41:07
Speaker 3: labor in Japan or in Britain. But you know what,
41:10
Speaker 3: do I know clearly it's just a single assimple workaround.
41:13
Speaker 3: It's going to it will almost certainly not survive significant
41:17
Speaker 3: court challenge. But the one thing I really wanted to
41:20
Speaker 3: flag was oil because you know, we've been a broken record.
41:23
Speaker 1: I'm sure on oil.
41:24
Speaker 3: Some people are like, oh, a lot of these prognostications
41:26
Speaker 3: haven't worked out. The reasons for that are actually fascinating.
41:28
Speaker 3: I'll get to in a second, but let's put C
41:31
Speaker 3: three please up on the screen. Yesterday, the Iran war
41:35
Speaker 3: has now drained US oil stocks to the lowest level
41:39
Speaker 3: since two thousand and four. Total stocks of crude and
41:42
Speaker 3: petroleum products fell by ten point six million barrels last
41:46
Speaker 3: week to one point five to seven billion barrels that
41:49
Speaker 3: is the lowest level since two thousand and four. The
41:51
Speaker 3: sharp fall has triggered new warnings from industry analysts that
41:54
Speaker 3: oil prices are poised to move sharply higher again within weeks.
41:58
Speaker 3: The US oil price rose two point six percent in
42:01
Speaker 3: afternoon trading on Wednesday to some ninety.
42:03
Speaker 1: Six dollars per barrel. Now.
42:05
Speaker 3: Bob McNally, he's the president of a Rapainan Group, former
42:07
Speaker 3: White House advisor, said the prices will reach two hundred
42:10
Speaker 3: dollars a barrel this summer unless the straight of horn
42:13
Speaker 3: Moves was reopened to tanker traffic. Quote, you start to
42:16
Speaker 3: raise the spill risk of spillover into other sectors. And
42:19
Speaker 3: what they're pointing to is that the petroleum inventory has
42:22
Speaker 3: hit a twenty two year low. But you also have
42:24
Speaker 3: the US strategic Petroleum Reserve, which I believe is at
42:27
Speaker 3: the lowest level since the nineteen eighties. And obviously, even
42:30
Speaker 3: if we had to rfill, it would be a bit
42:32
Speaker 3: of a problem.
42:33
Speaker 1: The combination of.
42:34
Speaker 3: Low oil inventory and a low amount of reserve in
42:37
Speaker 3: the strategic petroleum reserve basically just means there's no more
42:40
Speaker 3: like slush like extra oil to fulfill demand. Now, the
42:45
Speaker 3: reason why this has not actually happened earlier. And this
42:49
Speaker 3: is so interesting I've been spending a lot of time
42:51
Speaker 3: reading about it. Is that China as of this morning,
42:54
Speaker 3: has now plunged their oil imports by forty percent compared
42:59
Speaker 3: to twenty twenty one, and nobody knows why. The Chinese
43:02
Speaker 3: government has not issued any explanation, and so I can
43:05
Speaker 3: come up with only three three answers. Number one, it's
43:08
Speaker 3: a way to basically get a significant amount of soft power,
43:13
Speaker 3: which a pan in South Korea and be like, listen,
43:14
Speaker 3: you guys are heavily relying on LG SO as a
43:18
Speaker 3: gift to you, and perhaps for some future deals, we
43:21
Speaker 3: are going to import.
43:22
Speaker 1: Way less oil.
43:23
Speaker 3: They have a massive strategic patrol and reserve, and so
43:25
Speaker 3: we're going to draw that down. We're going to ban
43:27
Speaker 3: our jet fuel and other exports, and we're just going
43:30
Speaker 3: to use what we have here.
43:31
Speaker 1: So that's one that's bad for the US.
43:33
Speaker 3: Number two is that they did it at the behest
43:36
Speaker 3: of the US, which basically means Trump perhaps in some
43:39
Speaker 3: sort of deal which she said, look, man, you guys,
43:42
Speaker 3: drive down your spr and you buy me a lot
43:44
Speaker 3: more time in Iran, so that I don't have to
43:47
Speaker 3: face a significant crisis because the current analysis is that
43:50
Speaker 3: if China is just importing at normal levels, that it
43:53
Speaker 3: would put the price around.
43:54
Speaker 1: One hundred and thirty hundred and forty.
43:56
Speaker 3: So that's a very different landscape here in the US,
43:58
Speaker 3: where maybe what's six dollars out five fifty something like
44:01
Speaker 3: that the historic price right much more so than normal.
44:05
Speaker 3: The third answer is, basically they're just showing it as
44:08
Speaker 3: a flex to say we're massively energy and dependent.
44:12
Speaker 1: We can do whatever we want.
44:13
Speaker 3: We filled up our spr when the price of oil
44:16
Speaker 3: was very, very low, might as well use it. We'll
44:18
Speaker 3: let the rest of you suckers pay the premium at
44:20
Speaker 3: one hundred dollars a barrel. All three I think are
44:24
Speaker 3: signs of weakness, And you know, you could criticize me
44:26
Speaker 3: for saying that, But like if China's using as a
44:28
Speaker 3: soft power gift to the critical US allies of Japan,
44:31
Speaker 3: South Korea and the rest of Southeast Asia, that dramatically undermined,
44:34
Speaker 3: so they're helping, we're hurting. Number two, the idea that
44:37
Speaker 3: we have to do it at the best of the
44:38
Speaker 3: US basically means what it means that we have to
44:42
Speaker 3: go to them hat in hand and please bail us
44:44
Speaker 3: out of this problem. Number three is a flex just
44:47
Speaker 3: to say, huh, you're a joke. Your inventory is down
44:50
Speaker 3: to two thousand and four levels, your price of oil
44:53
Speaker 3: is very, very high. You're exporting all your oil to
44:55
Speaker 3: the rest of the world, which is great for Chevron
44:57
Speaker 3: Chinese consumers. They're doing okay, a lot better than the
45:01
Speaker 3: rest of you. All of them, I think, undermine our image.
45:04
Speaker 3: And really it also just demonstrates where this talking point
45:07
Speaker 3: about net oil exporter has come back to bide us
45:09
Speaker 3: in the ass, because who cares if you're exporting a
45:12
Speaker 3: ton of oil if the price is still damn high.
45:14
Speaker 3: It only matters in their context, where they just banned
45:16
Speaker 3: a bunch of exports and are basically keeping the price
45:19
Speaker 3: generally low for Chinese consumers relative to Japan, to South
45:23
Speaker 3: Korea and the rest of Southeast Well.
45:24
Speaker 2: The other thing is China has invested massively in renewable energy.
45:28
Speaker 2: They're the global leader in renewable energy, and by the way,
45:32
Speaker 2: their exports of solar panels have skylrocketed as not just China,
45:37
Speaker 2: but other countries around the world seek to replace some
45:40
Speaker 2: of their fossil fuel infrastructure and fossil fuel energy generation
45:43
Speaker 2: with renewable energy, because yeah, I mean, that is the
45:46
Speaker 2: real lesson of all of this is it doesn't matter
45:48
Speaker 2: if you're a net energy exporter, if you're participating in
45:52
Speaker 2: the global oil markets, you are also going to be
45:54
Speaker 2: subject your consumers are also going to be subject to
45:56
Speaker 2: those price bend pressures. The only real energy independence is
46:00
Speaker 2: from renewable energy. That is quite the opposite though, of
46:04
Speaker 2: what the message has been coming from from Energy Secretary
46:08
Speaker 2: Chris Wright, who is saying that actually the high energy
46:12
Speaker 2: prices are not because of the Iran war at all. No, no, no,
46:15
Speaker 2: they're somehow because Democrats wanted green energy. Let's go ahead
46:20
Speaker 2: and take a listen to that.
46:21
Speaker 11: We're in the middle of solving a forty seven year
46:25
Speaker 11: old problem, that's a growing problem about a nuclear armed Iran.
46:29
Speaker 11: I've never met anyone, not even a Democrat, who's comfortable.
46:32
Speaker 1: With a nuclear armed Iran.
46:34
Speaker 11: But the bigger problem, the even bigger problem with gasoline prices,
46:38
Speaker 11: electricity prices, heating prices, is Democrat green policies. They've done
46:43
Speaker 11: everything they can for twenty years to drive energy prices up,
46:47
Speaker 11: and now they're upset about high energy prices.
46:51
Speaker 1: I'm glad.
46:51
Speaker 11: I hope they keep that attitude going forward, and it'll
46:54
Speaker 11: work with us to drive energy prices back down.
46:57
Speaker 12: So you get unders I'm so you can to understand
47:01
Speaker 12: how an explanation of that would be necessary. The President
47:04
Speaker 12: told Miranda Divine that prices will come down to the
47:07
Speaker 12: not too distant future. He's referred to that recently. They'll
47:11
Speaker 12: come down when the conflict ends. Average gas today is
47:14
Speaker 12: four twenty six. A week ago it was four forty five.
47:17
Speaker 12: So it's come down.
47:18
Speaker 1: In a week.
47:18
Speaker 12: But here, here's from a New York Times piece. Now,
47:22
Speaker 12: they went out and talked to Trump voters in the
47:24
Speaker 12: state of Michigan, state of Maine, and here's how they
47:27
Speaker 12: feel about high gas prices. Here we go. Now, last
47:29
Speaker 12: time I filled up, I was like, oh, this hurts.
47:32
Speaker 12: It's affecting me in a lot of ways. It's been
47:34
Speaker 12: rough for the last couple of months. Those are the
47:37
Speaker 12: quotes to them. You say, what, mister secretary, Oh, we.
47:42
Speaker 11: Feel your pain. We absolutely want to drive energy prices down.
47:47
Speaker 2: We feel their pain. I mean, this is just the
47:49
Speaker 2: polar opposite of reality. In fact, if there had been
47:52
Speaker 2: more investment in renewables and he had more Americans driving evs,
47:55
Speaker 2: he and more renewables who were fueling the electricity grid,
47:59
Speaker 2: we would be in a better position than we are
48:01
Speaker 2: right now. And the American Prospect did a good piece
48:04
Speaker 2: on exactly what we've been talking about, all of the
48:06
Speaker 2: reasons why the gas price crisis has not been even
48:11
Speaker 2: worse than it is right now. It can put C
48:13
Speaker 2: five up on the screen here, something is going to snap.
48:16
Speaker 2: So far, the closure of the straight of Home News
48:18
Speaker 2: has not led to a major economic disaster, but that
48:21
Speaker 2: won't last forever. And the factors that he identifies Ryan
48:25
Speaker 2: Cooper here, who's the journalists behind this piece, Asager was saying,
48:29
Speaker 2: the fact that you have a lot of nations who
48:31
Speaker 2: are dragged down on their strategic petroleum reserves, so you
48:35
Speaker 2: have levels in those reserves reaching the proverbial bottom of
48:40
Speaker 2: the barrel. So that is not something that can be
48:42
Speaker 2: kept up indefinitely. Another factor that he does identify is
48:46
Speaker 2: the incomplete but significant transition to green energy, which has
48:52
Speaker 2: helped to serve as a buffer. Chinese exports y rights
48:54
Speaker 2: of solar and evs are soaring, even very poor countries
48:57
Speaker 2: buying in bulk. For a nation like Egypt, whose oil
48:59
Speaker 2: imports been a crushing burden on struggling economy. Renewable energy
49:03
Speaker 2: is not about hippie dippy environmentalism. It's a matter of
49:05
Speaker 2: life and death. Same thing happening in Cuba, by the way,
49:07
Speaker 2: right now because of our blocking of oil imports there.
49:11
Speaker 2: And then the other thing that he points to is
49:13
Speaker 2: the fact that you have had a lot of countries,
49:16
Speaker 2: in particular in Asia, multiple like several dozen countries around
49:19
Speaker 2: the world that have cut back their consumption already through
49:22
Speaker 2: rationing and other controls. So they already can see the
49:25
Speaker 2: writing on the wall. They're already implementing these restrictions so
49:29
Speaker 2: that you can, you know, help to stave off the
49:33
Speaker 2: worst of the price hikes. Obviously here in the US,
49:36
Speaker 2: we haven't taken any such measures. We're just relying on
49:39
Speaker 2: the market prices getting so high that demand destruction, as
49:43
Speaker 2: it calls, happens naturally.
49:44
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, even you know, it's pretty dark.
49:47
Speaker 3: Built four twenty four gallon about five ninety seven in California,
49:51
Speaker 3: which means something six bucks or so in the major
49:54
Speaker 3: metropolitan areas. It really is just so bad for so
49:57
Speaker 3: many Let's put C six up there on this screen.
50:00
Speaker 1: This is actually quite interesting.
50:02
Speaker 3: The OECD just released a new report saying even if
50:06
Speaker 3: oil price is peaked soon, the global economy will stall
50:09
Speaker 3: this year. The conflict is significantly disrupting the world's supply
50:13
Speaker 3: of energy and critical modities, slow economic growth and raise inflation.
50:16
Speaker 3: Through twenty twenty seven, global economic growth will slow to
50:20
Speaker 3: two point eight percent this year from three point four
50:22
Speaker 3: before recovering to three point one next year. Projections assume
50:26
Speaker 3: energy prices have peaked and then will gradually fall. So
50:28
Speaker 3: this is the assumption that you will have a slowing
50:31
Speaker 3: of economic growth worldwide even if oil prices have peaked
50:35
Speaker 3: right now, which is in no way a guarantee. As
50:37
Speaker 3: we said earlier, I just want to confirm your point
50:39
Speaker 3: about Hazbola. They have officially come out and said absolutely not.
50:42
Speaker 3: We're not doing those ceasefire terms, which means if those
50:45
Speaker 3: these fire terms are not locked in, that means that
50:48
Speaker 3: no cespire terms with Iran can be locked in either.
50:51
Speaker 3: I always found it hard to believe, how could you
50:53
Speaker 3: sign on to a c spire. We said, yeah, half
50:54
Speaker 3: of our country will be occupied effectively in perpetuity. That
50:58
Speaker 3: would be nuts well, and.
50:59
Speaker 2: A lot of times seems to be having to be
51:00
Speaker 2: curious to hear Jeremy's reporting on all of this is
51:03
Speaker 2: like the US and Israel will talk to the official
51:07
Speaker 2: government of Lebanon and then as well, we'll be like,
51:11
Speaker 2: we didn't agree to this, you know, No, we're not withdrawing,
51:13
Speaker 2: and the IDF can stay in southern Lebanon. That's not happening.
51:17
Speaker 2: So certainly appears something of that nature occurred.
51:20
Speaker 3: Actually literally is surprising sirens sounding in northern Israel amid
51:23
Speaker 3: a Hezbola rocket and drawn attack. So oh boy, okay,
51:26
Speaker 3: all right, so price of oil, I wouldn't I wouldn't
51:29
Speaker 3: hold my breath any times.
51:29
Speaker 1: Then let's get to Trump