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Jamie Mackay: The Country host on the projected dairy prices for 2025/2026 · The SME Stream

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: The Rural Report on Hither Duper see Allen Drive, Jamie
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: McKay's with Us host of the Country, Jamie, Good Evening,
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Good day, Ryan. So is a nine dollars milk price
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: on the cards for twenty five twenty six? What do
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: we think? Well, it's not what I think or you really, Ryan,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: it's probably what the experts think. And having just read
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: and reviewed the Rabobank Q four Global Dairy Quarterly Report,
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: a one sentence hit me right between the eyes. This
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: was authored, by the way, by Emma Higgins, who's their
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: senior ag analyst. She wrote, there is elevated risk that
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: the farm gate milk price moves lower across the course
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: of the season, which would mean that the final season
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: payout lands around the nine dollars per kilogram of milk
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: solid mark. So that's not a great number when we
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: started the season with a ten dollar fore cast. Of course,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: Fonterra has since trimmed that to nine dollars fifty. But
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: if it gets down to nine dollars, well, you know,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: the margins are getting a bit skinnier there. Because yesterday
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Dairy and Z came out with their Econ tracker, which
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: is their tool for working out how much it costs
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  Speaker 1: to produce milk, and they're saying the break even price
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  Speaker 1: is eight fifty. So you know, look, ten dollars is great,
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Nine dollars fifty is okay. Nine dollars jury's out a
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: wee bit on that one. We've still got a long
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: way to go. But the reason all this has happened, Ryan,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: and this is in the Global Dairy quarterly report as well,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: is because of stunning that's the word they've used, stunning
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: global milk production growth across the second half of twenty
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: twenty five. Right around the world, the EU and e
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: K and UK should I say, have posted their strongest
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: growth since twenty seventeen. For the month of October, US
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: milk flows posted their fifth consecutive month of growth rates
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: over three percent. Here in New Zealand, we're tacking along
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: at about three point four percent ahead of where we
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  Speaker 1: were last year. The Big seven, that's the EU, the US, US, Australia, Brazil,
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Argentina and Uruguay forecast to finish twenty twenty five up
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: two point two percent year on here. So the guts
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  Speaker 1: of it all, Ryan, is, you know, the milk price
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: has gone up. People around the world, especially in places
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  Speaker 1: like the States where grain prices are low, have just
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  Speaker 1: moved their production from feeding stuff to feeding other stuff,
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  Speaker 1: basically dairy cows, and therein lies the problem and then
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: all the milk comes on tap. Now our national lamcrop
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: for this season is up a bit on the previous Yeah,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: this is sort of a this is a really good
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: news story, to be honest, Ryan, if you remember back
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: and you're far too young to remember back to the
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: nineteen eighties, but when Rob Muldoon was in power and
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: we had farming subsidies on a national sheep flock peaked
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: at about over seventy million. Now we've got about twenty
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: three million, twenty three or twenty four million, so we're
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: well more than half. But the national lamb crop is
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: going to be nineteen point six six million according to
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: the Beef and Lamb New Zealand latest lamb crop Report.
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  Speaker 1: That's up about two hundred thousand lambs on last season.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: But the good news part of the story is a
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: the lambing percentage has improved a whole lot one hundred
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: and thirty one point one percent average across the country.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: That's amazing when you consider some of the land that
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: they're farming on with these sheep sheep farms, and that's
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: off the back of one point nine percent reduction and
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  Speaker 1: breeding you numbers. So the number of lambs processed is
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  Speaker 1: probably going to be in line with last year, which
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: was down a million on the year before. And part
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  Speaker 1: of the reason for that is even though we've got
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: more lambs, we're only going to process about the same amount.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: That's because some of those lambs born are going to
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: be retained as you lambs to rebuild the breeding flock.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Global lamb supply remains constrained, supported by an expected five
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: point eight percent reduction in Australian lamb export availability and
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  Speaker 1: continued low New Zealand supply. The guts of all this
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  Speaker 1: is that farm gate prices are at historically high levels
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  Speaker 1: and probably will remain there at least for this season.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Here's the final number for you, Ryan, lamb is now
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: eleven dollars a kilo. Milk or milk price could be
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: as low as nine dollars a kilo. It's not often
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: that lamb exceeds, deary, it's a while since we've seen that,
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So watch this space certainly will Jamie. Thank you for that.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Jamie McKay, host of the Country Here on news Talk
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: SeeDB For more from Heather Duplessy Allen Drave, Listen live
• 4:42
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• 4:45
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