Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - ALL The Election Indicators Favor Democrats + Media Consolidation, Private Equity & Shadow Banking

Transcript

Full Episode - ALL The Election Indicators Favor Democrats + Media Consolidation, Private Equity & Shadow Banking · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: is somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere. And you're
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: skeptical of that, as you should be. I get it.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a federal lawsuit going on right now
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: over exactly this. Companies that branded themselves as unbiased while
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: allegedly pointing people toward whatever would pay them the most
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: as some sort of broker. So if your default is
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Medicare advisors whose entire model is that their advisors are
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: not paid to push any one plan. They're just trying
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: to help. Yes, there's compensation that goes with it. but
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's across the board is what they're trying to do.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, they're advocating for you.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: They're not the insurance companies themselves. They're an actual person
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: who actually goes through your doctors, your prescriptions, your needs,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: and then compares them to every single plan available to
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: find the best one that will work for you and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: hopefully save you a couple dollars too. And here's the
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: part that sets chapter apart. They don't disappear once you've
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: been in They will keep advocating for you. They're kind
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: of like almost like a concierge service. You're just there.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I need help. You're like customer service. You know, the plan,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: you know, help me navigate this again. So you ever
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: get hit with a wrongful medical bill, they'll help you
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: fight it. They want to stay an advocate for you
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: even after you've done this. So look, I get it.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I think there's all sorts of space. You see a
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: lot of people are throwing themselves in this healthcare space.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: What I like about these chapter folks, I've spent time
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: with them. This is a very transparent organization. It is
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Medicare and all of its affiliated stuff can be very confusing.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: The whole point of this is to make this easier
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: and less confusing. OK, so look, take the skepticism you
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: already have in all of this, point it at your
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: own plan for 20 minutes. It's free. There's no pressure.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: And then call chapter today at 980-734-4200. three, nine, eight, five.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Hello there. Happy Thursday and welcome to the long weekend
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: episode of the Chuck Todd cast. Something that I assume
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: will be up for three days, three or four days
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: while you guys get a chance to take a listen
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: to it. I'm coming to you from the Island of
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Manhattan here in lovely New York city. As some of
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: you Podcast listeners know I am going to be part
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: of the next Predict conference. It is both Thursday and Friday.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I'll be hosting some panels and helping to emcee the
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: event at times. But it's about trying to deal with
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: the prediction markets as a budding industry, not talk about
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: individual ones, but sort of What is the good, the bad,
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: the ugly? What should be done? What kind of regulation
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: is necessary? What are some best use cases? And it
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: really is trying to get all the proper folks in
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: the room so that we can– just to sort of
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: see the variety of ways that prediction markets work. have
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: the chance to be useful in different ways. So to
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: say that I'm going to be overwhelmed with numbers is
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: an understatement and it kind of is a bit of
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: a tease for this because I have spent the last
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: 24 hours consumed with data. We have a brand new
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: New York Times-Santa that I spent a couple hours in
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: the crosstabs. I've got a lot that I want to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: share with you because I think there are a lot
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: of tea leaves worth reading in this one to set
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: up where things are with about 10 days to go
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: before election day. Needless to say, there is no counter
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: evidence that the wave is somehow cresting. This sucker appears
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: to still be building and It's getting bigger. The question
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: is how big. Right. You've now got Republicans nervous about
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Mississippi Senate. You know, now they want to put some
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: money in. First, Democrats are trying to expand the battlefield.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: And now there may be something happening here. But as
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: my friend Buffalo Springfield likes to say, what it is
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: ain't exactly clear. And that is for those of you
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: that know me well, know that I beat up that election.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: song lyric quite a bit when I like to talk
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: about the end game of a campaign season, because that's what.
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: We all are.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: You know, we can see enough of the tea leaves
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: to know something's happening here, but we're at the point
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: of the campaign if what it is ain't exactly clear.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: That's why you got to stop. Hey, listen, what's that sound?
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Never mind. You don't want to hear me sing. That
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: is not why you tune in or download that. If anything,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I fear if I start singing, you may unsubscribe. Um,
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: but I've got a whole bunch of data to share.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I've got, I had an interesting briefing of, uh, from
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: a super PAC spending a lot of money in Senate
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: races that I think there's some interesting, uh, things to
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: share there. We've got an update on, on, um, this, uh, Ramaswamy, um, disaster, um,
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: this horrendous, pretty much the lowest we are. I think
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: this is the lowest point in campaign politics in a
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: long time. Um, and I'll be honest, I'm going to
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: spend a little few more minutes on it. If, If
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: this tactic works, we're gonna regret this collectively as a society,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: as campaign, you know, I know you think, geez, can
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: it get any lower in politics? Well, the answer is
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: apparently yes, it can. And at some point we need
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: to stop digging. And if we can't stop digging on
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: exploiting childhood trauma, then I understand why people want to
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: give up on campaigns and democracy and stop. I mean,
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: the low quality candidates that are being allowed into the system, look,
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: anybody can run. It is our job as voters to
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: make sure the scumbags don't get power. And when you're
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: exploiting childhood trauma to win an election, That is the
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: low of lows. You are unworthy of a lot of things.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Elective office is just one of the things that you're
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: unworthy of. But certainly to be a representative of any
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: group of people, I got to think there's, I certainly
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: hope enough people feel shame that what Ramaswamy is doing
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: is punished. Because if it's not, they're, you know, I
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: know we keep saying this, boy, you know, they keep
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: moving the sucker, right? The famous Bill Hurt line and network,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: you know, where's the line? This crosses the line. He says, wow,
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: they keep moving the sucker. And I know Donald Trump
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: has introduced a whole nother level of garbage into our
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: political ecosystem, into the rhetoric. Yes, social media is unfiltered.
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: The garbage that Elon Musk has created and allowed to happen, right?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: There's no doubt there are plenty of bad actors out here.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: But to think that these people, Ramaswamy's campaign focus group this,
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: message tested it, knowing full well what the real story was,
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: that Amy Acton was sexually abused as a 10, 11,
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: and 12-year-old. And they choose to exploit the issue and
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: then be dishonest about it with one of the people
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: who put her through this trauma. Yes, it happens to
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: be her birth mother. But what mother allows this to
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: happen to their own child? And what campaign thinks it's
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: worth using and exploiting? So needless to say, I got
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit more to say on that. And then finally,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: I got four things. I'm gonna leave you with four
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: things that I believe if I knew the answer to
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: it right now, I'd be much more sure of exactly
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: where I think the selection cycle is headed on that front.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: My guest, William Cohen. He is a financial journalist. Those
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: of you that subscribe to Puck are familiar with the
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: name he does. He basically covers the business side of
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Puck mergers and acquisitions. And we spend a lot of
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: time talking about the impact of the Skydance merger What's
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: going to happen to big legacy media companies that are
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: owned by these big publicly traded companies? Are they gonna
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: be sold off piece by piece? Is there a future here?
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Is there gonna be a new big three? And is
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: private equity aware of how unpopular they are in America
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: and how unpopular they are with everyday people and how
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: those two words, private equity itself is used as a
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: political boogeyman these days. And so, You may think this
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: is a business interview, but it really is as much
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: an interview about the politics of the economy, the politics
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: of corporate America. And I like Bill a lot. Didn't
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: know him very well. I think you're going to enjoy
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: this conversation. Frankly, somebody I hope to have as a
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: more frequent guest. I found it to be that interesting,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: that helpful. And then it's hard to top last week
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: in college football. But since, you know, the team that
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: I have dragged all of you into caring about on
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: this podcast, my beloved University of Miami Hurricanes. They're now
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: number one. And just remember, just like this podcast, you
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: were here when, right? Before anybody thought it was cool
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: to see if Miami could come back. Before anybody thought
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: it was cool to get into this podcast space. And,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: you know, you're helping us become one of the top rated,
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: if not top rated political analysis podcasts that exists. And
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: you've gotten to follow me while we've watched the Miami
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Hurricanes rise to the place that I used to think
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: was their proper place in the polls, sitting up there
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: at number one with the rest of the country being
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: and moaning about Miami, whether it's their schedule, their conference,
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: their whatever. All I know is that come on the field,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: some of these teams that complain usually have a hard
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: time dealing with them. But I am also.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Self-aware that Miami backed into that number one ranking. And
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: I certainly am not interested in seeing Miami sitting up
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: in the number one spot until after they've won something,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: not before. But let's get to the topic for why
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: you come here more often than not. I know some
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: of you come here for the football, but most of
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: you are coming in here for the politics. And try
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: to do our best to make sense of what we're
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: all seeing. As you know, there are certain polls that
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I think are garbage. You know, you're never going to see,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: by the way, this podcast was never going to quote
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: whatever the hell that polling firm was, because I don't
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: quote anonymous polling firms that I never hear of that
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: suddenly pop up somewhere. You know, I still won't, you know,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: cite a Trafalgar poll. I think it's kind of their
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: methodology is kind of sketchy to me. So I didn't
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: you know, I was never sharing whatever this Westfield or Westerfield.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: But I'll tell you something about this fake polling. You know,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: I'd like to see them investigated. I don't know if
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: they committed a crime, if they technically committed a crime.
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: It is not a crime to lie. It is not
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: a crime to do those things. But the manipulative I
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: certainly would like to see. a little bit more information
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: about what motivated these folks to say that I don't
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: take their press release at face value, which was, oh,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: we were just conducting an experiment. Something's fishier there. So
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: I think there needs to be a real investigation. I
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: think a local law enforcement agency has every right, right?
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: They have admitted they intentionally defrauded the public. Um, I'm
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: not sure, right? I'm not, you know, the first amendment's
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty strong thing here, but you know what? I
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: want to make them go, go to court to try
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: to prevent us from finding out what was happening and
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: what was motivating. So I, I, I'm so offended by
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: what they did that I'd like to see some sort of, uh,
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: some sort of either consumer investigation opened up by a
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: consumer arm, perhaps a state attorney general's office. Cause this is,
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: this is defrauding the customer defrauding consumers. And in the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: case of Maybe Molly McMorrow, who believes that her Super
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: PAC fundraising dried up based on this fake poll that
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: they released in Michigan, perhaps she can engage in some
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: civil litigation simply so that we can get some depositions, right?
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Simply to basically get discovery. There's something fishier about this
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: company than them just conducting an experiment. I don't buy it.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: It's more than just conducting an experiment. They had a motivation.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: They had an agenda. And it wasn't just to see
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: if they could infiltrate the public square with fake poll numbers.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: They were manipulating a result and trying to manipulate something here.
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: So I think we need more information. I just think
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: it's worthy of real investigation on this front. And I think, again,
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: people were defrauded. And like I said, the person that
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: may have the best case to file a lawsuit against
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: this entity, whoever and whatever they are, is probably Mallory McMorrow,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the former Senate candidate there in Michigan. OK, so where
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: are we? We're two weeks away. We're less than two
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: weeks away from Election Day. As I said, we've got
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: that big Times-Siena poll. And I think we are getting
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: more and more evidence today. I told you the other day,
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: my three scenarios, blue mirage, blue wave, blue tsunami, that
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: blue mirage is really no longer the case here. I
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: think what we're looking at here is the blue wave
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: is forming. And the question is, is the bottom going
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: to fall out? When you look at this Times poll
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: and you get into the numbers, they have the generic ballot.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: At the Democrats up plus 11. It's a big number. Now,
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: is it pot? And if it was that much, this
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: would be bigger than what 2006 was. And we'd be
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: approaching something closer to 1994 than anything else. That's a
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: big deal. All right, let's dig into the Times-Siena poll.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to be looking, I've got, I did
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of notes and screenshots on a separate
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: device here. So I may be looking off camera every
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: once in a while as I read my notes here.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: But let me first do which party has the advantage
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: on which issue here. Because what was amazing is that
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: the Democrats basically have a clean sweep right now when
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: it comes to asking voters which party do they trust
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: to do a better job handling the following issue. So
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: on healthcare, Democrats had a 20-point advantage, 57-37. Cost of living,
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: 15-point advantage, 55-40. I'm going in order of the Democratic
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: advantages now. So their biggest advantage was on the issue
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: of healthcare. And as I've told you, the healthcare issue
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: now is no longer about access. The primary concern about
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: healthcare is cost and affordability. So Healthcare is also an
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: affordability issue, but it is number one by 20 points
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: for Democrats handling that. Cost of living, Democrats up by
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: 15 points on that. Gas prices, Democrats up by 14 points.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: So you can say first three issues are affordability issues, right? Healthcare,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: cost of living, gas prices. Fourth biggest advantage, the Times
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: put it as Foreign wars. Obviously, that's Iran and Ukraine.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Ten point advantage for the Democrats. Generic economy. Who do
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: you which party do you trust? Democrats by eight points
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: on this one. Here's one. How about immigration? Democrats up
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: by four points on immigration. And this goes to the
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: pattern we've been seeing for the last two years, which
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: was Republicans started with an advantage on immigration. For the
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: longest time, it was the only issue that Donald Trump
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: was right side up on. But the enforcement has the
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: aggressive enforcement has turned off a whole bunch of folks.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: Never mind the labor problems that it's created in the
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: agricultural community, which has upset quite a few people, particularly
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: in the Midwest and the Plain States. And now you've
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: got the Democrats with a narrow. It's a four point advantage,
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: but it's a narrow advantage. Corruption. Democrats up by 11
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: points who can deal with corruption better. Democrats by 11 points.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: And on artificial intelligence, it's Democrats by 11 points. So
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: there is not a single issue that voters are concerned
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: about where they view the Republican Party as the more
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: viable party to handle that, that that party can handle
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: it better than the Democratic Party. What this is really
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: about is that this is Donald Trump, right? And this
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: is ultimately the real problem Republican candidates have all across
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: the country is that most voters, when they're asked this question,
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: are thinking about, well, do I trust Donald Trump with this?
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: And if the answer is no, then they pick the Democrats.
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: Think about it this way, right? Imagine if you were answering,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: asking the question, do you trust Donald Trump to handle healthcare?
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: And the no would probably be at 57% and the
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: yes would be at 37%, right? That is essentially the base.
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: If you ask, do you trust Donald Trump to be
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: able to handle cost of living? And I told you
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: it was 40, 55. You'd probably say, oh, that's a
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: little high. That's more people than I would have expected.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: But you see the point here, right, which is Donald
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: Trump's because he took charge. You know, he created this
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: cost of living issues with his tariffs, the war in Iran,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: the aggressive immigration enforcement.
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: This is this is not they're punishing the Republican Party.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: But it's really. about punishing Trump because it's on all
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: of these issues that it's really about Donald Trump, right?
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: The corruption issue. This is Donald Trump's Washington. This episode
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to you by CalSheet.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: It's an exchange where you can trade on what you
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: actually think is going to happen. Sports, politics, culture, whatever's
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: on your mind. And guess what? What do we do here?
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: We do politics. And I give you a lot of
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: information and a lot of you already have an idea
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: of what you think is going to happen. Well, how
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: confident are you? Well, let's look at the race for
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: control of the Senate. And there's some interesting ways you
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: can trade the battle for the Senate. How many seats
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: will Democrats hold after the midterms? The market is pretty
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: bullish on Team Blue. Above 52 is trading at 37
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: cents on the dollar. 52 right on the nose is
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: trading at 23 cents, 51 at 11 cents and 50
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: at 14 cents. Everything below 50 is trading essentially under
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: a dime on this one. And I have to say,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: I'll just be honest. I think it's way too bullish.
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: I think 52 is the ceiling. Here's what, let me
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: give you a path to 52. And then I want
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: you to ask yourself the realistic. So how do you
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: get to 52, right? So they're sitting at 47. So
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: North Carolina is 48. Ohio would be 49. Texas would
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: be 50. Alaska would be 51. Now you've got Maine
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: and Michigan. Now, Michigan, if they lose, then it's subtract one, right?
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: It's already at, Michigan's part of the 47. They lose Michigan,
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: then you're down to 50. You win Maine, you're back
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: to 51. So then how do you get to 52? Okay,
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: if you win both Maine and Michigan, you get to 52.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: Now you're saying, is it Iowa, Kansas? It's interesting that
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: the market is much more bullish on Democrats netting six
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: seats or more than the market itself. Bottom line is
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of different ways you can trade the Senate market.
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: So take a look. So here's what you need to
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: know about Calshi. You're going up against other traders directly.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: There is no house setting the odds. I basically gave
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: you some odds, but that's me, right? There's no house
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: setting the odds. This is the market speaking. This is
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: people putting their opinions on the line. You can trade
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: $ 25 yourself using the code Chuck Todd, all one word,
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: and they'll throw in another 25 bucks instantly. So please
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: remember to trade responsibly. Donald Trump's Washington has become more
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: pay to play than ever. I mean, this latest story
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: about the Venezuelan banker hiring Helena, Helena Haba, who I
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: think has now just got married to some Turkish billionaire.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: some exorbitant legal fees of some $ 50 million over four
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: or five years and was all so this guy could
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: secure a pardon. Somehow she claims, well, it wasn't about,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: you know, she didn't get paid to secure a pardon.
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Did she just get paid because she had a nice
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: lawyer face or was her connection to Donald Trump and
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: his legal team an important part of that? Point is,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: is that If that was the first example we had
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: seen of somebody hiring somebody close to the president in
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: order to secure a pardon, you'd say, oh, maybe it's
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: a one-off. These are weekly stories. I mean, we know this.
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, there is, there almost is a, my guess
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: is it's kind of like a takeout menu.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: Do you want a commutation? Do you want a full pardon?
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: Or what are you looking for here? Do you want
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: to just get out early? You know, here's the price.
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: You know, here's the price list. And you do this, this,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: and this. It's certainly a whole bunch of people in
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Trump's orbit want people to believe that if you pay them,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: they can get you in with the president or they
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: can somehow get you that pardon. But it's just they're
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: doing it in plain sight. And it's not as if
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: this stuff's been hard to track down. And in some ways,
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: Trump's so brazen about it, he advertises in some ways
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: that he's doing this. I mean, look at him on
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: the trail. If you vote for Roger Marshall in this election,
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: I'll be sure and do this subsidy that bails people out.
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: But if you don't, I'm not going to do it.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: So he advertises the idea that he's for sale, that
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: everything he wants is a transaction. If he's trying to
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: make the voting aspect of transaction, like the result, if
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: I get the right result, I'll reward everybody. But if
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: I get the wrong result, I will punish everybody. It's
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: amazing that he's doing this and people out there are
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: just clapping away. Sure, that's a great idea. Keep punishing
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: us if you don't like the results of an election.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: It's one of these things you're saying, I can't believe
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: that the American president continues to behave this way. It's
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: just astonishing. Anyway, all right, I want to spend a
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: few minutes. As I said, that was the top lines.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: That was on the issues, and you can see it's there.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Now I want to get into a little bit more
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: of the poll itself and the things that I highlighted
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: that was interesting. So later in this podcast, I'm going
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: to talk about four things that if I knew the
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: answer to, I'd have a better idea of just how
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: good or bad this night is for Democrats. Turnout among
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: voters under 30. The New York Times-Santa poll only has 10%
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: of the electorate under 30. If the under 30 vote
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: is 10% of the electorate, Democrats are gonna have a
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: disastrous night. Now, in the last four cycles, since 2018,
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: it's been 13%, 15 percent, 12 percent. I think it
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: was 13 percent in in 2024. If it gets 13,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: 14 or 15 percent of the electorate is voters under 30,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Democrats are going to have a huge night. And the
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: person who probably needs more voters under 30 than anybody else,
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: because voters under 30 are supporting Democrats in some of
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: the largest spreads we've seen among any age group. But
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: when you ask the question of how likely are you
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: to vote, voters under 30 are the least certain that
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: they're going to vote in these midterms. In fact, when you,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: when you see it by age group, right, overall in
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the New York times, Santa pole, half, um, of all
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: likely voters said they were all, they were almost certain
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: they were going to vote. And another 30% said they
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: were very likely, right? So you had 80% calling. So
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: very likely. And then, um, Another five called themselves somewhat likely, 2%
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: said not very likely, and 2% said not at all.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: And 10% claimed they voted already. But among voters under 30,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: only 37% said they were almost certain to vote. Among millennials,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: 30 to 45, 45% called themselves almost certain. Among voters,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: my generation, Gen X, 45 to 64, that was the
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: most certain. That was the age group that was the
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: most certain to vote, 54%. This is the age group
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: that is the most supportive of Donald Trump and Republicans,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: and they're the most certain to vote. 65 plus on
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: the almost certain side was 51%. So that was, if
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: I were to actually point out like what was the
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: best piece of news in this time, Sienna poll, I
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: think I gave it to you, which was, well, at
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: least the age cohort that is normally the most supportive
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: of Donald Trump and the Republican Party namely Gen X,
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: the Gen X generation, well, they're more certain to vote
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: than anybody else. But it's kind of a, I'm not
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: sure I would hang my hat on that one. Now,
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Time Santa does a couple things with the generic ballot.
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: They actually did a generic governor ballot, they did a
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: generic Senate ballot, and they did a generic House ballot.
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: But here's what they did when they asked the question.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: is they would name the candidates on the ballot for
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: every congressional district, every Senate race, and every Gov race.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: So while they reported the number as sort of generic,
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Democrat and Republican, these were named candidates. And there'll be
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: many people in the polling community believe, particularly this late
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: in the cycle, that the name gives you a more,
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: when you name the candidate for the voter, and this
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: is not, these days, you know exactly who you're calling,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: what district they're in, and all of this stuff. it
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: gives you probably a more accurate picture. So this is
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: why the Democrats have an 11-point advantage on this Times-Siena poll.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Remember what I told you about what Nate Cohn, who
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: runs the New York Times-Siena poll, is doing? He's trying
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: very hard to make sure he's not missing the hard-to-get
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Trump voters. This is as much a forecast survey as
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: it is a snapshot in time, right? He tripled... checks
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: and puts all these little checks in there to try
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: to keep, he does not want to see this times
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: poll look way off based on the actual results. So
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: that's why I have a lot of confidence in here.
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: So I want to tell you about, so the generic
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: ballot being Dems leading by 11 points. This is, right,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: we've been at eight. Now this is higher than we've
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: seen in other polls, but we're going to start to
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: see more likely voter models. This is a likely voter poll.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: This is, I said, named candidates, 11 points. If you're
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: at D plus 11, Democrats are picking up 25 to
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: 35 House seats. They're going to be at somewhere 235
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: total House seats to 245 if we're looking at a
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: D plus 11. And they could get really close to
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: 250 House seats if we're really sitting in a D,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: a generic ballot with D plus 11. Now, let me
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: tell you about their generic Senate ballot. Same thing. In
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: the 35 states holding Senate races, they named the candidates.
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: So the Democrats got 47 percent Democratic Senate candidates and
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Republican Senate candidates were at 43 percent. Now you think
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Democrats only had a four point advantage in these Senate races. Well, remember,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: the Senate map is very Republican leaning. The 35 states
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: are right. There's no California Senate race this year. There's
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: no New York Senate race this year. For example, so
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I did some I did my own math here and
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: the 35 states with Senate races in the presidential in 2024.
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Trump won the 35 states that are holding Senate races
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: this midterm. He won it by seven points, 53-54. So
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Trump plus seven for the 35 states collectively, and it's
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: now Democrats plus four. Now you might say to yourself, hmm,
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: plus seven, plus four, wait a minute, that's 11. Oh,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: what was the generic ballot? 11. You gotta feel pretty
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: good if you're Nate Cohen, that your generic congressional ballot
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: and your generic Senate ballot essentially matched at 11 point.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: There's an 11 point swing from Trump plus seven in
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: these 35 Senate seats to now D plus four. Now,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: if you take those numbers at heart, what it probably
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: means is that Democrats come up short in Kansas, short
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: in Mississippi, short in South Carolina, but at a 11-point swing,
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: that's Ohio, that's Texas, that's Maine, that's North Carolina, that's
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: potentially Alaska, which sits in the 13 range, and it
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: potentially is Iowa. And what did we see today? We
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: saw some new Senate polls out of the Cook Report
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: in Ohio, Texas, and Iowa that, to me, provided good
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: news for Democrats in two of the states. And On paper,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: it was good news in Iowa, but I'd be a
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: little nervous. And why do I say that? One thing
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: to keep track of in these good Senate polls, right?
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: And there's only a handful that I buy. Cook Report
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: is one of them. AARP is one. You'll see sometimes, Sienna,
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: as I told you, the Fox News Senate polls are
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: very good. I would trust those as well. Start to
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: look at what the Democratic candidate is getting in the poll.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: Because in many of these red states, The number they're
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: gonna get, they're only gonna probably get anywhere from 20%
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: or fewer of the undecideds. Because most of the undecideds
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: in these red states are Republicans. Now, they could end
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: up not voting. They could end up holding their nose
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: and going with the Republicans. They could vote third party, right?
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: We don't quite sure. And maybe some of them will
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: swing over. Well, in these Cook numbers, which I think
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: was important to note, in these Cook numbers, Sherrod Brown
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: got to 49%. Tallarico got to 49. And it really,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: you know, you saw in my ratings yesterday, my confidence
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: level that both of those states are moving in the Democrats' direction.
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: It's only going up. And frankly, the whole Ramaswamy disaster,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: I think, only cements what's happening in Ohio. I think
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: now Ohio, the question now is, does what Ramaswamy did
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: create an even bigger sort of State based blue wave
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: that trickles down the ballot has legislative. I mean, I
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: think the damage he's doing here is that bad in
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: the state of Ohio. But we'll we'll get to there.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: But in Iowa, Turk was sitting at 46. And while
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: that that allowed him to lead in this poll against Hinson, boy,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: that registration advantage that Republicans have in Iowa. You know,
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: do I think he would get another two points from
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: 46 to 48 if taking the Cook Report poll at
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: face value? I do. I don't know if 48 is
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: a winning number, right? That's going to be the real question.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: I think it's true of Nebraska. It's true of Kansas.
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: It's probably true of Mississippi. It's true of Iowa. I
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: think if Democrats can make 48 or 49 a winning number,
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: they can win some of those states. Uh, they have
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: to get to 50. I don't see it. Um, what
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: they really need is some of these third party candidates
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: to sort of become the safe haven for Republicans who
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: want to send a message without voting for a Democrat. Um, but, um,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: I think it's certainly what you're seeing in this Time
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Siena poll, what we saw in this Cook Report polls,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: it's you're seeing these polls match a little bit. Another
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: thing that caught my eye in the Time Siena poll
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: was their party ID question. And I'm fascinated by this
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: because of what we're watching. As many of you know, I,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: you know, I think we need to sort of bust
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: up the two parties here. I think they're sort of
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: too big. The duopoly sort of, I think, certainly is
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: something that a growing number of voters would prefer not
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: to be a member of either party, right? We're up
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: to 45%, according to Gallup, of Americans who choose not
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: to register in either party and want to call themselves
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: independent or be in no party. Well, I wanted to
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: share with you sort of the party I.D., breakdowns by
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: age group and by ethnicity, because how people describe their
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: party at the moment will give you a clue of
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: probably where they're leaning and where they're voting, right? So
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: for instance, among voters under 30, the self-ID, the number
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: of voters under 30 that consider themselves Republican is just 15%.
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: Let me repeat, 15%. 44% of voters under 30 call
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: themselves Democrats. 33% of voters under 30 call themselves independents.
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: And right now we know independents, that Democrats are winning
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: independents by double digits, close to 20 points, depending on
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: the poll you read. But only 15% of voters under
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: 30 call themselves Republicans. So we do know that if
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: there is a huge turnout, if turnout surges among voters
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: under 30, That's how this goes from wave to tsunami. Now,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: just for comparative sakes, among millennials, Republicans are also in
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: third place among millennials. This is where I think that,
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: you know, this is a part of, I think, a
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: long-term problem the Republican Party has is Donald Trump has
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: really alienated the Republican Party from voters under the age
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: of 50. Because let me read you these numbers of millennials,
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: which in this age group is age 30 to 44.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: 36 percent of millennials call themselves Democrats. 34 percent of
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: millennials call themselves independent. And only 24 percent of millennials
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: call themselves Republican. So you can see it's been this
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: sort of, you know, and millennials, that's your that, you know,
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: their first their first adult president is Obama. So maybe
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: you can chalk that up to Obama a little bit.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: But with Gen Z, their first adult president is Trump.
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: And all it's done is turn them off of the
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Republican Party. How the Republican Party treated Obama, I think,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: has turned off a chunk of millennials. But those are
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: not figures that a major party wants to see among
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: younger voters. And because, you know, you lose them when
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: they're young. And, you know, it is funny about when
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: people pick a party, they rarely leave it right away.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: It takes a while before you can get somebody to
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: leave their party once they've made a choice in their
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: 20s and 30s, for what it's worth. Among Gen X,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: my generation, 45 to 64, the Republican Party is the
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: number one party. 37% of Gen X identifies as Republican. 30%
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: identify as independent. And 29% identify as Democrat. That's how
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: bad the brand problem has gotten. The Democrats brand problem
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: is with obviously younger voters who would prefer to be independent,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: but also older voters who have decided it isn't the
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party of their youth. And you really see this
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: in the in the Gen X section. Now, among 65
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: plus Democrats bounce back 37 percent. Republicans are still the
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: number one party among 65 plus 37 percent. Democrats right
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: behind them at 36 percent. And among voters over 65,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: just 23 percent call themselves independent. But the fact that
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: older voters are dead even and the only advantage that
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: Republicans have right now in the age groups is among
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: Gen X. It's the smallest of the four generations. So
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: and the advantage isn't so big that it's enough to
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: be decisive. So you can see. And that's why I
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: thought this age group breakdown here by party was yet
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: another tea leaf worth reading. This episode of the Chuck
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: Todd cast is brought to you by Quince. You know,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: the best pieces in your closet are the ones you
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: can count on, whether you're heading to work, going out
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: or keeping things a bit casual. And this time of year,
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: Quince makes finding something great for everyone else just as easy.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: The holiday season is coming. That's right. It's we're under
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: 90 days, folks. It's where I'm shopping for myself and
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: everyone else on my list because I know Quince delivers.
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: Nobody's ever disappointed in stuff they get from Quince.
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: Why?
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: Quince focuses on high-quality staples made with premium materials like 100%
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Mongolian cashmere, 14-karat gold, and Italian leather. Their cashmere sweaters
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: start at just $ 60. And the lineup doesn't stop there.
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: They have premium down jackets, wool outerwear, cashmere accessories, everything
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: you and your loved ones need to stay warm and
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: look put together all season long without breaking the bank.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: Everything at Quince is priced 50% to 80% less than
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: similar brands. How do they do this? Well, they work
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: directly with factories. And not just any factories, ethical factories.
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: They cut out the middleman or the middle person. And
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: so you can kind of get in your sort of
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: luxury quality pieces without paying that luxury price tag. You know,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: it sounds like ad copy. But Quince is responsible for
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: sort of the stuff I just grab and go. The
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: stuff that I know I can just throw on that
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: works well. I get these two pairs of shorts from Quince. And,
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: you know, the shorts are both warm. They're kind of khaki,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: but they're kind of not. They're just easy to wear.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: I'm wearing... a pair of those shorts right now as
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: I'm taping this podcast. So when it comes to gifting,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Quince is a lot more than clothing too. By the way,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: they've got fine jewelry, leather bags, hotel quality bedding, chef
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: grade cookware. People love a nice piece of, you know,
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: equipment to play with in the kitchen these days. five-star luggage,
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: plenty of ways to find something special for everyone on
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: your list. So give the gift of quality this holiday season.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: Download the Quince app for app-exclusive offers or go to quince.com.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: You get free shipping on your order, 365-day returns, now
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: available in Canada and the UK too. And when Quince
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: asks where you heard about them, please let them know
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: it was the Chuck Todd cast. It's the best way
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: to support the show and the best way to make
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: sure you're getting every discount. Republicans also have a Latino
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: problem and they have an Asian American problem. Among Hispanics, 48%
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: call themselves Democrats, 25% call themselves independents, and only 22%
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: call themselves Republicans. And among Asian Americans, it's a small subsample,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: but 41% call themselves Democrats, 38% call themselves independents, and
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: only 17% call themselves Republican. That is such a disaster,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: particularly on the Asian front, because in the 90s, the
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: second wave of Asians coming into the electorate, particularly in California,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of the sort of second generation Asian candidates
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: were on the Republican side of the aisle. Republicans did
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: really well. with basically first gen Asian immigrants and their families.
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: And whether it was Obama in a positive way, winning
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: over the Southeast Asian vote in particular, his living in
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Indonesia gave him this Asian Pacific identity of sorts growing
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: up in Hawaii, living in Indonesia. So he did organize
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: the Asian community And all the different subcategories within the
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Asian community that I think it certainly got stickier for
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Democrats in general. But this is, you know, when you
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: think about the faster growing population demographics in our country,
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: whether by age or by ethnicity, the Republicans are in
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: third place behind Democrats and independents here. And I do
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: think that that's telling, at least with this midterm election. Oh,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: one other point about this time, Sienna-Pole, just to give
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: you a sense of how different this electorate is. And again,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: I told you how hard Nate Cohn works to try
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: to get an idea. His projection is that this will
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: be an electorate that would have that would have been, uh,
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: that if, if this were the electorate in 2024, Kamala
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: Harris would have won by three points. So that's how
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: much more democratic this electorate appears to become to be. Yes. We're,
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: you know, and that is indicative of this D plus
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: 11 congressional ballot. That's indicative of the 11 point swing.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: We went from on the Senate states were Trump plus
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: seven and now D plus four. So, um, It is
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: worth noting that that is a pretty interesting development on
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: that front. A few other things that I want to
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: get to. On the question of the state of the
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: nation's economy, how would you rate economic conditions today? You
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: got four choices in this poll. Excellent, good, only fair, poor. Well, 51%
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: of likely voters call the economic conditions in America today poor.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: So I was curious to see which groups were over 51%
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: in poor? Well, among 18 to 29 year olds, 68%
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: called economic conditions poor. Among millennials, 59% called economic conditions poor.
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: Among African-Americans, 80% called economic conditions poor. Among Hispanics, 61%
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: called economic conditions poor. What's interesting is white voters who
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: went to college, 50% think this economy's poor. Non-white voters
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: who went to college, 62% think these economic conditions are poor.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: And non-white, non-college educated voters, 67% think this economy's poor.
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: The only group of voters who were not over 50%
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: in rating these economic conditions as poor were white non-college.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: So basically Trump's base Forty two percent, you know, wasn't
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: exactly a great number, but it was the only category
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: of note that was under 50 percent. You saw those
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: groups that I'm talking again. If this is the motivator
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: to vote, these aren't swing voters for this midterm. They
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: already know which way they're going to vote on this front.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: I was telling you about the differences between the two parties. Well,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: they also did Trump's job rating on various issues. And
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: just to run through it real quick, on the economy, approve, disapprove, 35% approve, 64% disapprove.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: On immigration, 42% approve, 57% disapprove. So his disapproval rating
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: on immigration is higher than the advantage Democrats have on
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: the issue itself. So that just tells you how disappointed
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: voters are with Trump. On tariffs, 61% disapprove of his tariff.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Handling of tariffs, 36% approve. Cost of living, under 30, 29%
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: approve of his handling of the cost of living, 69% disapprove.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: On the war in Iran, it's 33% approve, 65% disapprove.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Gas prices, 24% approve, 73% disapprove. I mean, this is
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: why you look at this poll, you look at, the
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: potential for the bottom to fall out. And it may
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: be falling out as we speak. As I said, they're
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: having to send money to Mississippi. They, the national Republicans,
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: put some money in the open House seat in Wyoming.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: Let me repeat, the national Republican Party put money into
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: the open seat in Wyoming. Cynthia Lummis is going to
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: be the next senator from Wyoming. But that's how concerned
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: they are. Now, are Democrats going to win the Wyoming
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: at-large seat? No, they're not going to win the... But
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: the fact is, my guess is all these polls sit here,
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: especially in an open seat, where you can get concerned
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: that the undecided vote is more willing to give the
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: other party a chance when they really don't know anything
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: about the Republican nominee on their side. But just... And
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: these you can see these polls are just devastating. So
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: it is. There was not other than certainty to vote.
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: It is about the only good news I could find
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: in here at all. I'll give you one other piece
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: of good news if you're on the Republican side of things.
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: In general, would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: with the Democratic Party? 28% called themselves satisfied. 70% called
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: themselves dissatisfied. Now, ask the same question of the Republican Party. 36%
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: called themselves satisfied. 63% dissatisfied. So you could say that
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Democrats are more unpopular. The Democratic Party is more unpopular
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: than the Republican Party. But what's interesting here on this
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: dissatisfaction scale is part of the problem for Democrats is
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: millennials and Gen Z are among the most negative about
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. And they're the ones that are going
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: to vote in the biggest numbers for the Democrats compared
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: to the Republicans. So they're not big fans. They're even more,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not popular, but the Republicans are less
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: likely to say they're dissatisfied with the Republican Party. Democrats
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: are not afraid to say they're dissatisfied with their own
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: party at this front. So the point is, is you can't,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: as I said here, it is hard to find, uh,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: It is hard to find a poll number in here
• 48:21
  Speaker 1: that is somehow putting him in a good race. Now,
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: I wanted to give you one other tea leaf to
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: consume here. So Trump's job approval rating in this poll
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: was 34% overall. To put that in context, they did
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: a very helpful chart of job approval ratings going back
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: to Harry Truman. If Donald Trump's 34% would put him,
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: if this is what his election day job rating is
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: come the midterms, this would make him the second most
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: unpopular president going into a midterm since World War II.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: The most was Harry Truman in 1946. His job approval rating,
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: you know, back then we just had Gallup, was at 33%.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: So Donald Trump is right there at 34%. Guess who's
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: right comes next after Trump? George W. Bush. And that
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: 2006 midterm where Democrats won both the House and the Senate,
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: he was sitting at 37 on election day. So the
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: three lowest presidential job approval ratings going into a midterm
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: since World War II, Harry Truman, 33%, Donald Trump's second term, 34%,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: George W. Bush's second term, 37%. Harry Truman in 1950
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: was the only other president below 40%. at 39%. By
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: the way, in case you're wondering, the best job rating
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: any president has had going into a midterm since World
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: War II was Bill Clinton, 66% in the impeachment midterm
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: of 1998. Reagan in 86 was sitting at 63%, and
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: his side still lost the Senate, but they didn't lose
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: too many House seats on there. George W. Bush had 62%
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: in the 2002 Midterms, Dwight Eisenhower, his first midterm was
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: sitting at 61 percent. JFK, his first midterm at 61 percent. Now,
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: those those were the midterms where the presidential party did
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: better than expected. But the point is, is that when
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: you look at every single marker when it comes to
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: assessing a midterm election, presidential job approval, you know, that
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: has to be at or near a record low for
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: a president for the out party to catch a wave. Well,
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: he's in wave territory, right? The generic ballot wave territory. Um, the, uh, the, the, the,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: the differences between the two parties wave territory, right? There
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: is nothing in here and there's, look, I'm not going
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: to lie to you. There's a part of me going,
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: wait a minute. If everything's pointing in one direction, what
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: are we missing? What are we missing? Um, you know, I,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I am open-minded to a counterfactual here.
• 51:00
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: I know it's harder to get Republicans in these polls.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: but I also know a lot more of the good
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: pollsters are doing better at figuring that out, doing better
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: at waiting up. I think the possibility that we're overrating
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: Republican chances is as good. The assumption is that the
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: polling error is only going to go in the direction
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: that benefits the Republicans. But we've now had 10 years
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: of fear in the polling community that the error is
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: going to be in that direction. And so there's been
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: nothing but work done by a lot of academics and
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of smart pollsters trying to fix that. Is
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: it possible? You know, there's always a point where you've
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: overdone it, where you've overcorrected. And I think it's as likely,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say more likely, I think it's
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: as likely that we've overcorrected as it is that there's
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: going to be a significant look. The Senate races are
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: in some pretty red states. So Democrats could have a
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: big night and still come up short in your Mississippis,
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: in your Kansas, in your South Carolinas. But at this point,
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: if this is the electorate that we're staring at, the
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: time CNN is done, the Democrats are going to win
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: the House and the Senate. It's not just going to
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: be a, it's not going to be a mirage. If
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: this is the electorate, they're gonna win both, pure and simple.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: Let's dig into the Senate a little bit. I think,
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: like I said, those Cook Report numbers indicate to me
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: they've got Tallarico with a five-point lead. Look, it's pretty
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: clear Republicans had decided to bail on Paxton and they
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: got away with it because Elon Musk was willing to
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: write a single check to sort of backstop and the
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: Republicans can work on other ones. Tallarico is polling at 49%.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Paxton was only sitting at 44. You know, I, I,
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: you know, if this is actually the spread, if he's
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: opening up a lead, Tallarico really is opening up a lead,
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: you know, can you imagine if we're able to call
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: Tallarico before 10 o'clock at night? You know, it's something,
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: one of the warnings I want to tie, and I'm
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: going to get deeper into this in a couple of podcasts,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: you know, as we get closer to election day, but, um,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: I think it's very likely on the East Coast between
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: eight and 11. We don't have many races called. Because remember,
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: the Democratic vote is in a lot of urban areas.
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: Urban areas take longer to count. There's more ballots, there's
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: more voters. It's just gonna take longer. If Democrats are
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: winning these red states, you're not gonna be able to
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: know that these are callable races until you're getting to
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: 80 or 90% on that front. But the big news
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: is that the... the Democrats have decided to send a
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: little bit of money to Mississippi. And we've seen other
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: individual campaigns send money to Mississippi. Kamala Harris has been
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: campaigning there. Look, Mississippi is what we call in the
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: campaign business a cheap date. And so a million, you know,
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: throwing in a couple million dollars in Mississippi can actually
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: go a long way. If you just threw an extra
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: $ 2 million in Texas, you wouldn't notice it, right? Or
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: even through the two million dollars if you wanted to,
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: you know, throw a Hail Mary in Florida or something
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: like that. So the Mississippi development is interesting because now
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: you've got Republicans truly are nervous about it. And when
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: you look at the two Senate candidates, it's like the
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: Kansas situation. Kansas is two Republican senators, Jerry Moran, Roger Marshall,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Jerry Moran. has been in Kansas politics a long time,
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: is known to have great constituency service, is really well-liked
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: among his colleagues, is just not somebody that's gonna get
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: caught napping. Roger Marshall, on the other hand, still kind
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: of new to politics, kind of went from one career,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: jumped in. I have told you before, he strikes me,
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: Not really liking people all the time, which makes me wonder,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: why did he get into the politics business? And it
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: does look like he got caught napping a little bit. Well,
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: the Mississippi Senate pairs are similar. Roger Wicker, man, he's
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: been in Mississippi politics a long time. He was in
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: the Congress and then, you know, he's sort of in
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: he's well known for having great constituency service in that state.
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: He's well-respected by his colleagues. He's been pretty much more
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: aggressive at pushing back on bad decisions by Hegseth, pushing
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: back on this idea that Putin is somehow anything other
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: than a tyrant and a thug. But Sidney Hyde-Smith is
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: just not a huge presence there. People forget in her
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: first race, it wasn't a blowout. She didn't win by
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: double digits. There's always been a high floor for Democrats
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: in Mississippi. It's why I think it's a state that
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Democrats have missed out on organizing, probably should have organized
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: a lot sooner. But it has a low ceiling, right?
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: It is definitely they need I think 48 or 49
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: percent has to be a winning number. But, you know,
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: African-Americans are really upset about the gutting of the Voting
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: Rights Act. We have seen turnout among African-Americans during the
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: primaries was through the roof. You get a higher than
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: expected turnout among African-Americans in Mississippi and you get an
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: average to below average turnout among white Republicans. That's the recipe, folks.
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: That's the recipe for Mississippi being in play. It's also
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: the recipe for South Carolina. But Donald Trump is making
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: a couple of stops in South Carolina. I don't think
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: they've decided to do that just yet. All right, now
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: I want to go to day two, I guess, of
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: the fallout of this. And, you know, I've had a
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: few people going, oh, you really got angry about this
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: Ramaswami ad. Look, I hope I've made something clear that
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: I love politics. I love this democracy. I love our Constitution.
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying that just to sound like I'm a hokey,
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: you know, wannabe government teacher. You know, first of all,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: I'd love to be. I enjoy teaching and I adored
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: my government teacher when I was in high school. And
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: I genuinely do love our Constitution. I genuinely do love
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: politics and I love public service. I think that I
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: think there's some nobility to it. Do I think there
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: are massive egos in politics? I do. Do I think
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: negative campaigns work? They've been, you know. Alexander Hamilton created
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: the New York Post to be a negative campaigner.
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: So as long as we've had democracy, we've had negative campaigns.
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: I'm not naive. But I want more good people to
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: run for office. I think that we have we have
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: locked people out of politics by making it disgusting and awful,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: by deciding that if you choose to run, we're going
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: to make you defend anybody vaguely bad decision or bad
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: thing that's happened to you, whether you did it or
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: somebody did it to you. And we're going to make
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: sure we litigate it all. And you're basically going to,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: it's the, you know, one of the infamous dreams that,
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: you know, therapists will say that people have is that,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: you know, you have this dream where you're literally naked
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: and you're like, what? I can't, where are my clothes?
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've, I've had the, and it's the, you know,
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: therapists all say, you know, when you, when you worry
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: about it. You have this fear that somehow you've been–
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: it's fear of being exposed or whatever you want to–
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: however you want to read that. I'm sure a professional
• 58:52
  Speaker 1: therapist will give me the official take on this in
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: one of my Ask Chuck questions. But the way politics
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: works now, it's almost as if you're saying, okay, I'm
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: just going to, you know, I'm going to bear it all,
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: warts and all, you know, here it is. And If
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: that's the way we conduct politics, then only the shameless
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: are going to run for office. Only the wannabe celebrities,
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: the shitty influencers who just think politics is a way
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: to make a buck.
• 59:29
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: That I'm getting into politics to either become famous or
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: make money. And Donald Trump has shown that you can
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: basically be a failed celebrity in any other walk of life,
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: but find success in politics. He also has shown that,
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: you know, you can make money by shoot. I mean,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: you know, a lot of people get rich without even
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: winning an election in politics. Can I introduce you to
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: somebody like Alan Keyes? You can Google him or chat
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: to find out what it is. But this is a
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: guy who is basically a professional candidate. for a long time,
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: ran for president multiple times, was the fill-in Senate candidate
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: in Illinois against Barack Obama, I guess most infamously in 2004.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: And for a brief period of time, had a show
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: on MSNBC called Alan Keyes is Making Sense. I never
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: did appear on it, for what it's worth. point is
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: is that if we don't want politics to just simply
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: be taken up by the grifters and the assholes then
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: we've really got to condemn tactics like this one all
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: right because it's not just the advertisement itself right it's
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: the calculation behind this ad and then you're watching how
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: jd vance is responding to it what's amazing is that
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: the ramaswamy campaign They message tested this ad. My friends
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: at the hotline, one of their reporters got a hold
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: of the screenshot. Basically, a polling firm on behalf of
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: the Ramaswami campaign contacted people and saying, hey, do you
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: mind taking a survey? And as part of the survey
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: was to watch this ad with Amy Acton's estranged mother,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: the mother who stayed married to the man who sexually
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: assaulted Amy Acton when she was 12 years old. Just remember,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: all of these facts were known by the Ramaswami campaign
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: and they aired this ad anyway. Then they put $ 4
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: million behind it. So they message tested it. Now they
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: want to put more money behind it. Now the acting
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: campaign is out with a response ad. It features her
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: brother who noted that it's just, it's painful that they
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: had to do the ad, but you know what's, Look,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: Acton's been running a very smart campaign from the beginning.
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: The fact that they knew that Ramaswamy was capable of
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: doing this and they were sort of had a plan
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: ready to go. I mean, it tells you they were
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: being smart and it tells you they knew exactly who
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Ramaswamy was. By the way, Nikki Haley, she's not laughing
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: at this. She's just reminding people. I tried to tell
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: you this guy was a bad guy, that this was
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: a bad guy. He's a... This is.
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: What really bothers me is that this isn't his decision alone.
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: There's a whole bunch of people he's paying who hope
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: to have a future in campaign politics after this failed
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: campaign ends in disaster on the launch pad. And I'll
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 1: tell you this, you have Ramaswamy on your resume, you're
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: gonna have a hard time getting a job. This is
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: the single, I think most embarrassing, most disgusting and despicable
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: decision a major campaign has done. Again, they exploited the
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: trauma of somebody's childhood trauma. That's what they did. And
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: it wasn't just any trauma. It's sexual assault. I thought
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: this was the party that cared a lot about what
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein did, was worried about the trafficking of young
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: people and all of these things. I'm old enough to
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: remember when J.D. Vance cared about these things. Now, what
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: does J.D. Vance do?
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: J.D.
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 1: Vance didn't simply decline to criticize the ad. He went
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: after other Republicans who were criticizing it. By the way,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: John Husted was asked about it. And he was asked
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: about it after Vance goes to the state and basically
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: embraces this strategy by Ramaswamy. And Husted simply said, I
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: wouldn't have done this ad. Of course, anything more and
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: he starts a fight. I mean, I sort of, at
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: this point, I'm sorry he's not speaking out more about it,
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: but politically, I understand the vice grip he feels like
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: he's in. But Vance criticized Republicans who decided to criticize.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: So if a Republican thought that they were disgusted by
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: this decision, Vance thinks that was weak. Vance said he
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: was disgusted by Republicans who were complaining about the ad
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: rather than focusing on winning the election. Winning isn't everything.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: It's the only thing to J.D. Vance. Now, his message was, well,
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: politics is a tough business. Republicans should stop whining and
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: go win. All right.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: All right, Mr.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: Vice President. What's interesting here is Vance is not, in
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: his own bizarre way, he's not defending the factual merits
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: of the act. He's not explaining why Acton's mother's account
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: should be believed over Acton's. or why this particular family
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: dispute is relevant to who should govern Ohio. He's defending
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: the willingness to use the tactic. And he's suggesting that
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Republicans who object to it are somehow insufficiently committed to winning.
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: This is the Republican party that Donald Trump and JD
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: Vance believe exists. This is insulting to other Republicans. If
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: you've got a moral compass, J.D. Vance doesn't want you
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 1: as a member of the Republican Party. That's the message
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: he just sent. Because once winning becomes the answer to
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: every single objection, what exactly is left that a candidate
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: shouldn't do? What's out of bounds? If this is not
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: out of bounds, then what is out of bounds? I mean, look,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: I don't believe this is good politics. I think this
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: is going this is taking a bad situation of Republicans
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: and making it worse. And they are creating I'm not
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: I think the backlash from this is going to go
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: way down the ballot. And maybe in some ways, this
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: is it was a moment like this that people needed
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: to realize, oh, my God, what the hell have we
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: greenlit with the Trump era? For years, we've watched Republican
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: politicians defend conduct they would have condemned had it come
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: from a Democrat. And it's usually on the grounds of, well,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: the alternative would be worse. And now we're applying that
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: same logic to campaign tactics. Vance is not making the
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: case that this is appropriate or fair. He's just saying, well,
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 1: everything is fair if it's about winning. So I look,
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: I guess Vance is making the case that he wants
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: to be Trump's heir apparent. He's like, no, no, no, no.
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: I'll go as low and as disgusting as Trump will
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: in order to win over the MAGA constituency. But think
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: about what he think about the contempt Vance has for
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: his own supporters. He thinks they think this is a
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: good thing. The author of Hillbilly Elegy. I'm curious what
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: the author, J.D. Vance, the guy who wrote Hillbilly Elegy,
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: I'm curious what he would think of Amy Acton's story.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: The guy I met in 2016 who was the author
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: of Hillbilly Elegy, I think would have a lot of
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: empathy for Amy Acton. The guy who's become Donald Trump's
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: vice president and who suddenly wants the job himself has
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: decided all's fair. And we wonder why we have no
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: moral compass when it comes to our foreign policy.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: Everything is transactional. No moral compass when it comes to
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: what we're doing with AI. But look, I think Ohio
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: is giving us a preview of a fight Republicans are
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: going to end up having after this election. If Ramaswamy loses,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: I think this, look, it's clear he didn't think he
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: could win any other way. So he decided to throw
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: this Hail Mary. So I hope if he loses, Republicans
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: conclude that it went too far and that the tactics
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: backfired and that voters were looking for something that weren't
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: going to reward this. But what if Vance's answer is, no,
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: we just weren't aggressive enough. Republicans needed to fight harder.
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: And the problem was the party's unwillingness to fully embrace
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: the approach Vance is defending. We know that's going to
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: be Trump's excuse. He's going to say that Republicans are
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: too weak. They didn't get behind Paxton. Again, Trump and
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Vance are basically criticizing any Republican who has a moral
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: compass or an ethical bone in their body. Because this
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: is immoral and it's unethical. Bottom line. It's why I
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: think this, look, I don't know whether I would lump
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: this in with the corruption message per se, right? But
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: it's corruption, it's character, right? Look, we know What's driving
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: this election is the fact that Trump's policies have made
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: life harder on anybody who doesn't have money in the
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: stock market.
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: That's a fact. That's the big driver of this election.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: But the difference between Democrats having a good night and
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: winning a tsunami is going to be this character and
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: corruption stuff. Be it this disgusting, horrendous thing Ramaswamy did. Look,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: I think this is disqualifying, period. Disqualifying from doing business.
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't do business with a guy. And again, I
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: can't believe there hasn't been resignations from his campaign. There
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: are going to be people, if you stick with that campaign,
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: you put that on your resume, you're not getting hired
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: by any mainstream Republican if he loses as badly as
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: I think he's going to lose on this. It's something
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: folks need to keep in mind. And what's interesting is
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: the timing of this, right? We're getting a few more
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: corruption stories. We're seeing corruption. Again, as I reminded you
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: the other day, the corruption in 06, corruption was this
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: cherry on top, as Chris and I were discussing on
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesday for the Democratic wave. This character assassination that
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: that Ramaswamy is attempting on Amy Acton, coupled with a
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: more pay to play schemes. and what we've seen with
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: Putin and Zelensky and Elon Musk. And it's just been,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: it's not that voters are voting on Putin or foreign policy,
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: but they're voting on the idea that it's unelected, corrupt
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: billionaire friends of the president get to make these decisions
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: and not you and I and everyday people. All right,
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: before we get to my interview with Bill Cohen, and again,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: a fascinating sort of journey through the world of private equity,
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: these media conglomerates and where things are going. I want
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: to get it, what I wrote in my sub stack
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: this week, which is for those of you also, you
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: get it on Newsphere. But anyway, so I wrote a
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: column this week about four pieces of information that I'd
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: most like to have before election day, right? And the
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: premise is pretty simple. Rather than, I didn't want to
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: spend another column trying to predict what's going to happen
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: on November 3rd. But instead, I wanted to focus on
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: here's what I don't know yet. And if we knew
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: the answer, I'd be able to give you a better projection.
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: All right, now I just want to give you a brief,
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: quick little rundown of the column I wrote this week.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: I hope you will take a look at the whole thing.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I hope you subscribe either to my work on Newsphere.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of great contributors. It is worth the
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: price every month there. Obviously, my sub stack is also free.
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: You can get that there as well. But either way,
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 1: please take a I hope you get a chance to
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: read the whole thing. But basically what I wrote is
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: a column about four pieces of information that if I
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: had it now, I'd have a better idea of what
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: was going to happen on Election Day.
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I look I don't need to continue to paint the
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: picture of just how much that this landscape is deteriorating
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: for the Republicans. But it's the but let me give
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 1: you some specifics here of what I most would like
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: to know at the moment. First question happens to be
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: about those. are about voters who somewhat disapprove of Donald
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: Trump's job as president. The somewhat job approvers. It's somewhere depending,
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: you know, the four part. We learned this quite well
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: during the 2022 midterms. The four part job approval question
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: with president is a really good one. You know, do
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove? We
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: know with Trump, the strongly disapprove is over 50 percent.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: But for his disapproval, the 60s is another anywhere from
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: about 10 to 14 percent, depending on the poll, of
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: the electorate who only somewhat disapproves of Trump. And who
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: are these people? These are, you know, this is a
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: group that the somewhat job disapprovers of Joe Biden ended
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: up still voting narrowly, voting for more Democratic candidates in 2022, right?
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: Among the generic ballot, among those that somewhat disapproved of
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: the job Joe Biden was doing, Democrats won those voters
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: 49-45 in 2022. Well, according to polling right now, among
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: the somewhat job disapprovers, Republicans are still winning those voters
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: by 20 points. Now, in 2018, you know, Trump got
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: walloped among all disapprovers. But right now, those that are
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: calling themselves somewhat disapprovers of Trump's job, They're pretty rank
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: and file Republicans. And right now they're still sticking with
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: the Republican candidate. Republicans are winning this group of voters
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: by 15 to 20 points. If you see this get
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: to only a single digit lead for Republicans among those,
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: this will tell you that you actually have Republicans that
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: are leaving Trump and voting Democrat. Democratic, right? In bigger
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: numbers than just two, three, or four points. So, you know,
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: what percentage of those that somewhat disapprove of Trump's job
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: are not going to vote Republican, right? You tell me
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: that answer, I'll tell you how big this wave is.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: The second unknown, it's something I touched on earlier in
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: this broadcast, it's younger voters. What will be the percentage
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: of this electorate will be voters under the age of 30?
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: In 2018, It was 13% of the electorate. In 2022,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: it was 12%. Obviously, Democrats did better in 18 than
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: they did in 22. Well, the percentage of the electorate
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: among young voters was slightly higher. 2020, the percentage of
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 1: the electorate was 17% of voters under 30. 2024, it
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: was 14%. Democrats win a presidential election when 17% of
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 1: the electorate is under the age of 30. They lose
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: a presidential electorate when 14% of the electorate is under
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: the age of 30. Not saying that that is the
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: only reason they went from winning to losing in 20
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: to 24, but you get my point. Anything that sits at, frankly,
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: 14 or above, and you're looking at a pretty, as
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: we know, a pretty big night on that front. So
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: how's Gen Z going to vote? The third unknown is
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: Latino voters. How decisive will Latino voters be for Democrats?
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: it was one of the biggest stories in 2024 was
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: Trump's improvement with Latino voters, many of whom were frustrated
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: with inflation, the cost of living, and frankly, I think,
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: thought the Democrats culturally were moving too far to the left.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: But now we're seeing those voters come back towards the Democrats.
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: Almost all of it has to do with the economy,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: but another part of it has to do with immigration enforcement.
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: Because there's a difference between many Latino voters supported stronger
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: border security, but they didn't support tactics that this administration
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: is employing in communities around the country that seem to
• 1:16:26
  Speaker 1: target people simply how they look or whether their last
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: name ends in C. And how big is that shift?
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: It's one thing for that shift to be big on
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: the congressional level. But if this shift is decisive up
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: and down the ballot, well, then that's when you know
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: Texas or Florida governor comes into play, right? If Democrats
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: win Florida and or Texas governor, it'll be because there
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: was a massive shift of Latino voters from the Republicans
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: to the Democrats. Right now, we see more of that
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: shift in Senate races than we are seeing. And, you know,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: believe it or not, Chalarico has been doing better with
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: Latino voters than the Latino nominee, Latina nominee for governor.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: I think that number is going to grow. I think
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: Now that more Latinos believe she can win, you'll start
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: to see that number. You know, we had a little
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: bit of that with Barack Obama early. Black voters weren't all,
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: didn't jump quickly on board. Obama was just, well, can
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: he win? And then when it looked like he could
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: win and he was going to get support from the
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: white community, then all of a sudden his support among
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: African-Americans grew exponentially. I think that possibility for Gina Hinojosa
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: is there. And then the fourth unknown is whether the
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: Democratic brand is going to be a problem that prevents
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: certain Democrats from getting across the finish line. I think, look,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: I think if Gina Hinojosa comes up short, if David
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: Jolly comes up short, I think we'll say it's a
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: brand issue more than anything else. I think if Annie Andrews,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: you know, Darlene Graham is very vulnerable, but the Democratic
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: brand is just in tatters in a place like South Carolina.
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: the Democratic brand were slightly better. I think we'd be
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: talking about South Carolina the way we're talking about Kansas
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: and Iowa when it comes to that. Now, she could
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: still win because many of these Democrats have gone out
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: of their way to basically distance themselves from the stereotype
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: of the National Party. Annie Andrews is a great example.
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: She went candidate to camera wearing her white coat, she's
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: a medical doctor, to say, I have never done any
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: gender transition surgeries and nor would I ever do something
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: like that. And I believe in fairness in women's sports.
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: And she was direct on that issue. Josh Turek went
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: direct to camera, on that issue. You've seen Talarico do this.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: You've seen Gina Inouye say, we are not relitigating some
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: of the culture wars in the legislature if she gets elected.
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: You've seen Adam Hamilton say similar things. So it's possible
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: that the candidates overcome the brand because they've gone out
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: of their way to say, hey, I have my own brand.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to be defined by the National Democratic Party.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: So those are the ingredients there. This is what goes
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: from wave to tsunami, right? Do Latino voters move, shift
• 1:19:26
  Speaker 1: Democratic up and down the ballot? Do young voters turn
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: out in a substantial way that's greater than what we
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: saw in 18 or 22?
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: Do the.
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: People who somewhat disapprove of Trump's job, which are more
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: likely to be the Republican and independent Republican leaning independents.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: Do they punish Republicans for their disappointment in Trump and
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: essentially abandon their party for a cycle?
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: That those are this is why it is hard to
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: forecast something bigger than just sort of a generic sort
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: of check on the party in power type of election.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 1: So if I knew those four things, I think I'd
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: have a better off feeling comfortable saying one way, being
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 1: more definitive, feeling, yes, this is an 06 wave or yes,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: this is a 1994 like tsunami. All right, with that,
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: let's sneak in a break. And when we come back,
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: my conversation about the world of private equity, media conglomerates,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: mergers and acquisition. But I promise we do our best
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: to try to speak American in this. You do not.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 1: need to be a CNBC junkie to understand this conversation
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: with William Cohen of Puck. And with that, let's get
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: the break. I'll see you on the other.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: Side.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: Well, as many of you know, I am knee deep
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: in trying to figure out where the media business is going,
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: where the news media business is going. And my next
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: guest is someone who understands the world of business and
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: journalism and that turned financial journalist, founding partner of Puck.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: I have become addicted to his newsletter. And he's author
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: of several terrific books about Wall Street and the personalities
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 1: that dominate it. His latest is called Money to Burn,
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: The Unvarnished Truth. about Leon Black, Apollo, and the rise
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: of a new Wall Street. I'm going to talk with
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: Bill about his book. Don't get me wrong. But there's
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: something else I want to spend some time with, and
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: that's just sort of where's the media business going? Are
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 1: we going to continue to have publicly traded companies even
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: want to own news networks anymore? My thesis is, you
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: guys have heard me say this, I don't think they do.
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: But we're going to find out. Bill, welcome to the podcast.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 2: It's great to be here, Chuck. Thank you. Thanks for
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 2: having me. You got it.
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: So let's look, I want to get into, look, there's
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: a ton of questions I have about Leon Black and
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: I got obsessed about Mark Walters and the whole how
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: private credit works and sort of how Leon Black sort
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: of invented this whole thing. I could do an hour
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: just on that, but I do want to concentrate on
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: sort of where big media is going. Because I'll tell
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 1: you my theory, and I'm curious to get your reaction
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: and then get your expertise, which is, I think all
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: of the major publicly traded media companies are going to
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: try to get rid of their news divisions. whether it
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 1: seems like ABC to Nextar seems like a likely thing.
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: I assume when Trump leaves office, some combo platter of
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: CNN and CBS gets offloaded to pay down debt. And
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: certainly Comcast is already talking about spinning off NBC Universal.
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: So it feels like that's where that's headed. Maybe it's
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: five years, maybe it's sooner than that. But it's certainly
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: a world, that's the world I'm expecting over the next
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: five years um fair.
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: I mean i think um you can't go wrong with
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 2: that thesis um there are a couple of complicating factors
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 2: you're right your old network uh nbc the comcast has
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: taken it further than anyone ironically they spun off their
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: cable channels you know msnbc and cnbc and others so
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 2: they they did that that's versant that's already out there
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: trading And not trading particularly well, frankly.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: I own quite a bit of it, as you might imagine.
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: Some things you just sort of hold. That feels like
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: a hold.
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a hold. Something comes along to scoop it up.
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 2: Maybe this Jeff Schell's first acquisition, you can pull off
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: what he's trying to do. So there's a clear example, right?
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, the Comcast guys are smart. When I was
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 2: a banker, I worked on the Comcast acquisition of AT &
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 2: T Broadband, which was a big cable business. That was
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: a $ 72 billion deal back in 2001. That was the
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 2: biggest deal of all time up to that date. So
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: that was, I mean, those guys are smart. You know,
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: Mike Cavanaugh is smart. Brian Robert is smart. They know
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: what they're doing. And if they're saying we're spinning these
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 2: businesses off, you know, good luck. We don't want them
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 2: part of Comcast anymore. I think what they're saying is
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: these are You know, linear TV assets, they have nice
• 1:24:42
  Speaker 2: cash flow, but they're declining in the long run. So
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: we don't want them. Okay, then you look at Skydance,
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: the newly created Skydance. Now, obviously, they own both CBS
• 1:24:58
  Speaker 2: and CNN now, and there's been a lot of talk
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 2: about whether those two would be combined, you know, putting
• 1:25:04
  Speaker 2: fear into the hearts of people at CNN. The difference
• 1:25:09
  Speaker 2: there as opposed to Comcast is Skydance has $ 80 billion
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 2: of debt. So they need this cash flow. CNN has, what,
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: $ 750 million of EBITDA?
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: So the cash that comes in, I've always heard this
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: about CNN, that the cash, particularly internationally, that that cash
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: flow is actually quite helpful. So you think they want
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 1: to keep CNN for a while because of the cash flow?
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: They need it. They need it. They got to pay
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 2: down this $ 80 billion of debt. And that's a lot
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: of debt.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: So flipping it as a package, CBS News and CNN
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: as one thing, that's not what you would expect them
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 1: to pay down debt with.
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: I feel certain they're going to. do something to quote unquote,
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: combine CBS and CNN, whether that's just like a back
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: office kind of thing. You know, I've, I've been plenty
• 1:26:01
  Speaker 2: of times on both. So you go to CBS and
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 2: which is, I believe, you know, union organization. And there's like,
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: five people putting my earpiece in, five people doing my makeup,
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 2: five people putting my microphone on, and 20 people leading
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 2: me to the set, okay? You go to CNN, there's nobody.
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 2: There's one, like, intern, a young intern saying, why are
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 2: you so late? We're waiting for you on set. Okay, so...
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 2: I apologize.
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: We didn't have makeup for you, hair and makeup for
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: you on this one here at the world headquarters of
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: the Toddcast.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: Hair and makeup constantly. So... There's clearly some costs that
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 2: can be taken out. And I know at the highest
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 2: levels of Skydance, they are definitely thinking about that. Now,
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: whether they actually... take it even further and put the
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: two news organizations together and call it something, I don't know,
• 1:26:52
  Speaker 2: CNN or CBS or CBS-CNN, I don't know. That might
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: be a bridge too far, at least in the early days.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: But I don't see them spinning this off. I don't
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 2: think CBS News, anyway, is making a lot of money
• 1:27:03
  Speaker 2: these days. But I think they need that cash flow.
• 1:27:08
  Speaker 2: Even though they're declining, these linear TV assets are declining
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 2: in terms of EBITDA, they need it to pay down.
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: I compare linear TV right now to radio in the 90s.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: It was a declining business, but good cash, which is
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: why you saw some consolidation. Is that a fair comparison?
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 2: It is, except I think it's a better business than
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 2: radio is. I mean, because of streaming, music streaming, I mean,
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 2: who even, no offense to anybody, but I don't know
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 2: many people who listen to the radio anymore. Even when
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: they're driving, they're listening to a book. They're listening to
• 1:27:48
  Speaker 2: their Apple Music or their Alexa or whatever, asking people. Clearly,
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: there are big radio station groups, and they're hanging in there.
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: But I think that people still... watching TV, right? I mean,
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 2: even though they're streaming, they're still watching linear TV, especially
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 2: live sports. I mean, as we know, 98 of the
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 2: top 100 shows on TV are NFL football games. So
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: people are still watching live sports, and that is an
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 2: incredibly valuable asset, especially for the NFL. And they'll continue
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 2: to monetize that. So Comcast is sort of taking it
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: one way. I think the Skydance people have got to
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: stick with this until they pay down this debt or
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 2: until Larry decides to put more equity in. And then
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 2: there's Disney, AV. which they've talked about. I mean, Iger
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: talked about spinning that off at Sun Valley, you know,
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: whatever it was two or three years ago. And nothing
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: ever came of it. Keeps talking about spinning off ESPN and.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: The rumor I keep hearing is that when the Tegna
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: merger finishes, Nexstar-Tegna merger, that it's Nexstar that wants, that
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 1: there's some sort of handshake deal for ABC.
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: Well, the question is if that happens during the Trump administration. Right.
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: If out of spite, they nix it because Trump doesn't
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: like Disney. Right.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 1: Well, the other idea was that if Nexstar was the purchaser,
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: this administration would accelerate approval of something like that.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: Yes, but then they'd be helping out Disney, which they
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 2: don't want to do because they don't like Iger and
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 2: they don't like the new regime either.
• 1:29:36
  Speaker 1: Let me ask you about the Comcast question. And I
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 1: say this, frankly, I'm still a big shareholder because they
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: had an incredible– they had an incredible employee stock plan
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: that I remember Steve Burke one time saying to me,
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: I think I'm going to make it an IQ test.
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: Cause if you don't do it, you're an idiot. And it,
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: you know, it was, it was, it was a good,
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: good plan for a while. Why did they get caught?
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: They were always a fish that was too big to swallow.
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: And then also a fish that was not big enough
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 1: to swallow others, right? Like, is it Fox deal that should,
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 1: that could have happened that didn't, what was the, What
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: could have allowed Comcast to become Skydance?
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: Oh, well, well, let's be clear. I mean, Skydance is
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 2: only Skydance because of Larry Ellison.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: Right. And so the massive without.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: Larry Ellison, you know, putting in this money and, you know,
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 2: for his son and and and and signing on for
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 2: his son's dream year, and maybe it's an Ellison family legacy.
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: We wouldn't be talking about Skydance. We wouldn't be talking
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 2: about Paramount Global. I mean, so that is all an anomaly, okay? Now,
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 2: Comcast doesn't have– Brian Roberts is plenty wealthy, but he's
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: not Larry Ellison wealthy. So, I mean, he was tapped out.
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, for many years, he was a deal machine, right?
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: I mean– And.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: Honestly, I thought it was inevitable that Comcast was going
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: to be able to just, in the Brian Roberts way, essentially,
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 1: I think he had a vision. I think he thought
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: it would be orderly and logical. And then came the Ellisons, right?
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: Is that really the answer?
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 2: And look, also, you know, as a guy who wrote
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 2: a book about the rise and fall of GE, too,
• 1:31:25
  Speaker 2: before this latest book about Leon, look, I would have
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 2: never thought that GE would come apart at the seams. Right.
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, who could have ever imagined? And they owned
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 2: NBC and did a stupid deal and sold it to
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 2: Comcast for pennies. I mean, basically, I mean, that was
• 1:31:42
  Speaker 2: one of the greatest. Again, that was another example of
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: Brian Roberts at his at his best and Steve Burke
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: at their best scooping up, you know, NBCU from GE
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 2: when they were desperate and they didn't even run an
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: auction for it. They just sold it to Comcast. Brian
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 2: handled that beautifully. And at one point, you know, pre. pre-pandemic,
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: it was worth $ 100 billion, and then they paid $ 30 billion.
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 2: But again, then it sort of succumbed to the linear
• 1:32:10
  Speaker 2: TV decline, number one. And I think a general feeling
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 2: that the cable companies don't need to own the content,
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: and these things become faddish. And if the investors turn
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: on you, it's hard to get it back unless you
• 1:32:28
  Speaker 2: give them what they want. And Zazz gave investors what
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 2: they wanted by announcing the split up of Warner Brothers Discovery.
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 2: What he, I think, didn't count on necessarily was that
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 2: that would put Warner Brothers Discovery in play. And along
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 2: would come, you know, Larry Ellison to scoop it up
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: at $ 31 a share, which is like a legendary purchase
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: price that he couldn't possibly say no to. But Comcast
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: couldn't play in that. That was way too rich for
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: their blood. They couldn't compete with Netflix. I mean, so
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, and then just look at, say, Netflix, what's
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: happened in the wake of Netflix trying to buy Warner
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 2: Brothers Discovery. They've been they've been trashed and now they're
• 1:33:12
  Speaker 2: firing everybody. So, you know, these things happen, you know,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 2: sort of like Hemingway said about falling in love.
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: And then all at once.
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: Uh so he said it about falling in love we
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: use it for bankruptcy we use it for you know
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: that metaphor we love that one hemingway and churchill right
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 1: we just over quote them uh forever because they're they're
• 1:33:38
  Speaker 1: very wise men um in 10 years is the big
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: three going to be youtube netflix and amazon.
• 1:33:45
  Speaker 2: Well youtube is a juggernaut as we know although i
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: personally don't understand it um I think it's.
• 1:33:53
  Speaker 1: Become too big to organize. And I don't, I say
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: this as some, I mean, I'm fascinated. I'm trying to
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: get my arms around whether fast channels are going to
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: be something. Is this going to replace cable? My guess
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 1: is it might for older people, but I, it almost,
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 1: I keep waiting for somebody to just organize YouTube. It
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: needs to be curated and organized. That feels like.
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: Well, of course my kids, you know, or at least
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: one of my kids, loves, you know, loves it and doesn't,
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 2: that doesn't have cable. My kids don't have cable. I
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: have cable.
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 1: Same with my kids.
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 2: And I would, and I can't even imagine giving it up,
• 1:34:32
  Speaker 2: but at some point I'm not going to be around
• 1:34:34
  Speaker 2: and they will be, and they won't have cable. And I,
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: and I, and I'll be, I'll be gone and my
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 2: cable subscription will go with me. So, I mean, yeah,
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 2: it's like anything at some point, the baby boomers will
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: be gone from politics and, and we'll see what we're
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 2: left with. I, I saw, I, but I mean, there's
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 2: no question that YouTube and that those individual channels and
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: the way people interact with that is something that that
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: generation quite, quite likes. I think, you know, HBO still
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: seems to me to be very powerful entity. And if
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 2: it's combined with paramount plus and rebranded for the 20,000th time, uh,
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the content creators there are very good. Um,
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 2: you know, Apple could swoop in at any time.
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's still a hobby for Apple,
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: isn't it?
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it doesn't have to be. Yeah. I mean,
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 2: that they, I mean, and then, you know what? They've created,
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: I think they've created a lot of great shows.
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: Oh, I, it, but it does feel, it feels like, frankly,
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 1: it feels like HBO in the early aughts, right? Like they, they,
• 1:35:43
  Speaker 1: they just always find a winner and you're like, I
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 1: didn't know I'd like that. How about that? Right.
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: I know. And it's very thoughtful and, and but they
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 2: could i mean they've got so much cash they've got
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: such a huge market cap i mean they could easily
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: absorb any of these people and not you know and
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: still have it be a sideshow why not pick up
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 2: uh uh skydance when it goes into bankruptcy under the
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: 80 billion of debt.
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 3: And uh And, you know, are you saying that facetiously
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 3: or you think that's not really, I mean, I mean,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 3: I'm not, I'm not rooting for it obviously, but 80
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 3: billion of debt is a lot of debt.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: 12 billion, they have 12 billion of cashflow and 80
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 2: billion of debt. And they promised 6 billion of quote
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 2: unquote synergies. You know, right now we're talking about seven
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: times leverage. We're talking about junk. The junk bonds are
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 2: trading like junk bonds already. And the debt was just issued,
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 2: you know, two weeks ago. So, I mean, And the
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 2: market is clearly expecting Larry. I mean, they've said they're
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 2: going to get this leverage down to three times by 2029.
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 2: And the market is expecting Larry to put more equity in.
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 2: But Larry's people, they're saying, absolutely not. We don't need to.
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 2: So there's already a tension there. I'm not sure why
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 2: they structured it this way. It's basically a publicly traded
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 2: leveraged buyout, one of the biggest that there's ever been.
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 1: Is there any comparison from the past that you look
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: at that and say, hey, this could blow up?
• 1:37:29
  Speaker 2: Look what happened to RJR Nabisco, which became a legendary deal.
• 1:37:34
  Speaker 2: KKR made no money from that deal. Again, I don't
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 2: wish this upon them, but The Skydance stock is already
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 2: down like 25% since the closing on October 6th. So
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 2: all those Larry Ellison investors, Redbird Capital, the Mideast Sovereign
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 2: Wealth Funds, the Korean billion-dollar player, Mrs. Jobs, Lorraine Powell
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: Jobs invested 250 million in this and sits on the board,
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 2: which is a real head scratcher. They're all, I mean, Mrs.
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 2: Jobs has already lost $ 100 million of her $ 250 million investment.
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: What do you think of what Redbird is up to?
• 1:38:27
  Speaker 1: I sit there and I certainly know plenty of people.
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: A couple of them have been my boss over the years,
• 1:38:36
  Speaker 1: whether it's Mr. Shell, Mr. Zucker, or various folks that
• 1:38:39
  Speaker 1: have been in that orbit. They seem to be building
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 1: something like grabbing new niche media, things like this, as
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: You think that's a smart play? Well, I know they're,
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 1: and I know, I know they're investors.
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, let's do it.
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: I'm hopeful myself. I get to have to make a
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 1: disclosure myself. So do your disclosure.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 2: The owner of the talk, which is of course my company,
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 2: part of my, so, and I'm an equity holder in it.
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 2: And so I know, Jerry Cardinale very well at this
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 2: point and have a lot of respect for him. He's
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 2: a great collector of talent, and I'm not just saying
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 2: that because he's got Puck in the stable now, but
• 1:39:28
  Speaker 2: you know, Jeff Zucker is an immense talent. In fact,
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 2: I'm waiting, and I've written this many times, why the
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 2: heck is he at Redbird IMI acting like an investor
• 1:39:42
  Speaker 2: when he's really an operator of media. He should be
• 1:39:49
  Speaker 2: making over his head of CNN and CBS. It's so
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 2: obvious to me. I don't know why that hasn't happened.
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 2: Maybe they're waiting for Trump to get out of office
• 1:39:58
  Speaker 2: or after the midterms or something when he's less powerful.
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: Then you've got to bring Jeff Zucker back to this
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: combined organization. He's the adult in the room. He's already
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: in the stable. Just bring him over. It makes so
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 2: much sense. But Jerry, you know, he owns soccer teams.
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 2: He's doing, you know, he worked with, you know, created that,
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 2: you know, actors equity and sold that to what Apple
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: or something. I mean, you know, you know, he's he's
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 2: a smart guy. You know, he certainly put a nice
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 2: valuation on pot, which were. certainly appreciative. Now we've got.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 1: To go live up to it, right?
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 2: Now we've got to go live up to it. So
• 1:40:45
  Speaker 2: I got to keep working. But I think, you know,
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: he's got, he's put $ 6 billion into the Skydance deal.
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: $ 2 billion in the first round of Paramount Skydance, and
• 1:40:58
  Speaker 2: now another $ 4 billion in Skydance. So, I mean, that's
• 1:41:02
  Speaker 2: a $ 6 billion. That's not nothing.
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: I know, you know, I joke these days that, that
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: I think people are numb to these valuations. They're numb
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 1: to some of these dollar figures, which actually moves me.
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 1: I want to get to the world of sports a
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 1: little bit. I dabble in that. I, um, was helped
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 1: found a sports business publication back in the day. And, um,
• 1:41:29
  Speaker 1: I'm a skeptic that these valuations are what they say
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: they are on some of these things. And, um, Meaning,
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 1: you know, I get, okay, hey, I sold 15% at
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 1: a valuation of, you know, $ 4 billion, whatever sports franchise acts.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 1: You know, it could be a private equity deal, could
• 1:41:47
  Speaker 1: be a new investor, and we get these valuations. And
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 1: I got really, you know, when the whole Mark Walters
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 1: thing sort of became front page, I went down plenty
• 1:42:01
  Speaker 1: of rabbit holes. And you start to ask yourself, how
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: real are these valuations in particularly with these sports franchises?
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 1: And it made me a skeptic of the value of
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: the that this a lot of this stuff is maybe
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 1: more inflated than we think. How would that show itself
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 1: if that's true?
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not sure I agree with you that they're inflated.
• 1:42:25
  Speaker 2: In other words, I think that please push back. I mean,
• 1:42:28
  Speaker 2: the numbers that you hear are basically real. I mean, obviously.
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: If you're selling a minority stake at 10 percent, you're
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 2: not selling the whole company at that huge valuation. So
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 2: that it's probably easier to ratchet up a valuation on
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 2: a minority stake. But but take take, for instance, the Lakers, OK,
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: which was sold over a weekend to Bob Iger.
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 1: Come on that had to be we've never seen a
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: sports transaction like that really even Balmer took longer to
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 1: get the Clippers.
• 1:43:07
  Speaker 2: Exactly I mean I've never seen anything this pricey that
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 2: was a private company as opposed to a public company
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: sometimes public deals do get done over the weekend because
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 2: they're public companies and so more information is known about
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: them but But this is a private company. I understand
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: the need for speed here because the Walter Empire is listing.
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 2: But where did Bob Iger and Josh Kushner get the
• 1:43:37
  Speaker 2: money for $ 12. 5 billion to pay for this? I know
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 2: Bob Iger is rich, but maybe a billionaire. And Kushner,
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 2: I know, has a fund and he's made a lot
• 1:43:46
  Speaker 2: of money investing in some of these early tech companies.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 2: But I mean, I think private equity guys are limited
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 2: to how much they can put in a sports company.
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 2: I think there are limitations, whatever it is, 30% or whatever.
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: The leagues keep raising it because all the owners want
• 1:44:02
  Speaker 1: more capital.
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 2: By the way, those limits, those are going to come
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 2: off because, I mean, if you buy the Lakers for
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 2: $ 12. 5 billion, like the Celtics were bought for 2006, wasn't it?
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: Or 6.6 or something like that?
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: Before that, but the deal that was done in 2002
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: was like 300 million say, okay. And they just sold
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 2: it for like 7 billion. So that's like 20 times,
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 2: you know, your money kind of thing.
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: How do you get 20 times your money? If you've
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 2: paid 12 and a half billion dollars for the Lakers,
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 2: is somebody going to pay, you know, 120 billion, 240
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: billion for the Lakers 20 years from now?
• 1:44:45
  Speaker 1: Maybe inflation goes that nuts, huh?
• 1:44:47
  Speaker 2: No, it's not going to happen. That's why, that's why
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: it's a ridiculous amount to pay. Okay. And I don't
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 2: know where they got the money.
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 1: I'm a believer that sport, look, these sports franchises are trophies, right?
• 1:45:00
  Speaker 1: They're artwork, right? I mean, so they're meaning there, there's
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 1: a lot of vanity involved in these purchases, right? More
• 1:45:08
  Speaker 1: than there are people that concentrate on how good of
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 1: a business they are. Is that fair?
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: Well, look, this is oceanfront property. Like, they're not making
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: any more of it, right? So, you know, occasionally you'll
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: get like a team in Las Vegas or whatever, and
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: people pay up for that. So, yes, they are trophy assets.
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: They do not trade on a P & L basis.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 2: In other words, they're not income statement driven. They're not
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 2: EBITDA driven. They're not cash flow driven because they're not
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 2: really making a lot of money, but they're rare, right?
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: Josh Harris, one of the people in my Apollo book,
• 1:45:47
  Speaker 2: bought the Sixers for $ 250 million or whatever it was,
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 2: and now it's worth $ 4 or $ 5 billion. They haven't
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 2: won a championship since 1983 or whatever. Then he just
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: bought the Commanders for $ 6 billion. These are smart guys
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 2: who are doing it because they are rare assets and
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: they rarely go down in value. You know, it's interesting.
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: Can't you plot the value? I feel like we get
• 1:46:19
  Speaker 1: these jumps in sports valuations about every, and they almost
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: always go when there is a new media technology creating
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: a frenzy, right? And so, I mean, everybody who bought
• 1:46:31
  Speaker 1: into the NBA in the early teens or the late aughts, just,
• 1:46:35
  Speaker 1: they all hit the lottery with streaming, right? They all
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: hit the lottery with streaming. And I guess it sounds
• 1:46:43
  Speaker 1: like what you're saying is we won't see another jump
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: in sports valuations until probably there's a new media frenzy,
• 1:46:50
  Speaker 1: almost a new way people want to experience this stuff
• 1:46:53
  Speaker 1: where suddenly the value, you know, you've got more pieces
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: of your IP that's valuable to people.
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 2: I mean, even with that, I don't see how you
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 2: get to... $ 240 billion for the Lakers. But maybe if
• 1:47:10
  Speaker 2: we all have chips in our brains and you just say, okay,
• 1:47:14
  Speaker 2: I want to watch the Lakers game now, whichever Lakers
• 1:47:17
  Speaker 2: game I want, it just starts appearing in your brain.
• 1:47:23
  Speaker 1: So let me ask you this about Mark Walters. Did
• 1:47:26
  Speaker 1: he buy the Dodgers or did little old ladies and
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: their life insurance annuities buy the Dodgers?
• 1:47:32
  Speaker 2: Well, I'm not an expert on, you know, I know Guggenheim,
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 2: his company bought bought the Lakers and the Dodgers, right?
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:47:44
  Speaker 2: And they have a network of insurance companies and they
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: generate a lot of free cash flow and they have
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 2: to figure out what to do with that. And so
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: it looks like they decided wisely, I might add. So,
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, no, I don't think it's little old ladies
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: in Dubuque. I think it's, you know, whoever owns those
• 1:48:09
  Speaker 2: insurance companies. But I don't claim to be an expert
• 1:48:14
  Speaker 2: on that. It's clear that people have been wondering about
• 1:48:20
  Speaker 2: how he's done that for a long time. He also
• 1:48:23
  Speaker 2: owns Guggenheim Partners. There's an investment bank run by the
• 1:48:29
  Speaker 2: former CEO of Bear Stearns, Alan Schwartz, that they own too.
• 1:48:34
  Speaker 2: So they got their fingers in a lot of pies.
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: You know, he paid 10 billion for the Lakers and
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 2: sold it for 12 and a half billion a year later.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 2: So that's pretty good ROI.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: And, you know, I'm sure the Dodgers, despite getting swept
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 2: by Milwaukee, are plenty valuable. And he's got a big
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 2: game there, too. So, you know, I think that's, you know,
• 1:49:03
  Speaker 2: helping to prop up this whatever is going wrong at
• 1:49:06
  Speaker 2: his company now.
• 1:49:07
  Speaker 1: Well, I ask this because as I learned, and you
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: just wrote a book on that, is it fair to
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: say Leon Black is sort of who sort of, it
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: seems like if you're a successful private equity fund, an
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: insurance company is a key part, is a key asset
• 1:49:25
  Speaker 1: in order to have cash to grow. Is that how
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: it works?
• 1:49:33
  Speaker 2: Well, it depends what your goals are as a private
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 2: equity fund. mogul. There are plenty of private equity funds
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 2: that are just private equity funds where people just buy
• 1:49:46
  Speaker 2: companies with their own equity and other people's money and
• 1:49:50
  Speaker 2: then they buy them and they try to fix them
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 2: up and then they sell them and they make a
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 2: lot of money. So a lot of people, private equity
• 1:49:58
  Speaker 2: is like one of the greatest businesses ever created by
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 2: man that's legal. I mean, people, pretty much everybody who's
• 1:50:07
  Speaker 2: been involved in the private equity business, has made a
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 2: shitload of money and are very rich. So there are
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 2: people who just continue to do private equity. Then there
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 2: are the private equity firms that went public, Blackstone, Apollo, TPG, Carlyle, KKR,
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 2: the bigger private equity firms. And as public companies, I
• 1:50:32
  Speaker 2: guess at some point they decided that private equity is
• 1:50:36
  Speaker 2: a a wonderful and profitable but slow growth business. And
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 2: so they needed to get into businesses that were faster growth.
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: And this is what, you know, slowly but surely post
• 1:50:50
  Speaker 2: the 2008 financial crisis created what we call now the
• 1:50:54
  Speaker 2: private credit industry. And depending on which firm you're at,
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 2: having an embedded business Insurance company is key to that
• 1:51:05
  Speaker 2: because it provides you with a huge amount of cash
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 2: that you can then invest in things that can make
• 1:51:14
  Speaker 2: you more money than you have to pay out to
• 1:51:17
  Speaker 2: your insurance claimants or your annuity holders, depending on the
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: kind of insurance company is. But then there's like Blackstone,
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 2: which doesn't have an insurance company, doesn't do it that way.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 2: They just say they just go to their investors and say, hey,
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 2: We made all this money, you know, in private equity.
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 2: Give us your money and we'll make you plenty of
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 2: money in private credit, too. But we don't owe you anything.
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 2: You know, it works out great. It works out. Whereas, say,
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 2: Mark Rowan, what he's created at Apollo, his successor to
• 1:51:48
  Speaker 2: Leon Black as CEO, he created this annuity company called
• 1:51:53
  Speaker 2: Athene and he owns the annuitants, you know, Basically, they
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 2: insure people's retirement. And if you give me, I'll give
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 2: you a million dollars and you give me 5% a year.
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 2: But they owe them that 5% a year. And so
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 2: they have to make more than 5% a year on
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 2: what they invest in to capture that spread. And so far,
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: they've been pretty good at that. Yeah.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: I want you to assume my listeners are not as
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 1: are not as tuned into certain, you know, understanding the
• 1:52:31
  Speaker 1: intricacies of private equity. But as a political story. Private
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: equity is turning into a boogeyman, right? You can see
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: it on the campaign trail. You hear people, exactly. They
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: don't know why they're upset at it, but they're upset.
• 1:52:51
  Speaker 1: I always said data centers are not about the data centers.
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 1: It's about tech. It's about frustrations over 20 years. It's
• 1:53:01
  Speaker 1: sort of a bunch of things in one.
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 1:53:04
  Speaker 1: And private equity feels the same way. It's this whole,
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: who are these people and all this stuff.
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: They're all making too much money. They're all rapacious.
• 1:53:13
  Speaker 1: So if you were advising one of these private equity funds,
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: I do think government's coming for them. The pitchforks are
• 1:53:20
  Speaker 1: being sharpened. And I don't know what that looks like, right?
• 1:53:25
  Speaker 1: There could be, you see that some states want to
• 1:53:27
  Speaker 1: ban private equity from buying up houses or, you know,
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: buying certain, you know, becoming big landlords, things like this.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: They clearly have a PR problem, right? What would you
• 1:53:41
  Speaker 1: do if you were on the PE side? And what
• 1:53:44
  Speaker 1: do you think is fair critiques from the politician side?
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 2: Look, they're low-hanging fruit from politicians, right? You love to
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 2: bash rich people.
• 1:53:57
  Speaker 1: It's always good politics, especially when the country's in a
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 1: populist mood, left and right.
• 1:54:03
  Speaker 2: And the dichotomy between rich and poor has never been greater, right?
• 1:54:07
  Speaker 1: Huge.
• 1:54:10
  Speaker 2: The Bloomberg 500 list, I mean, it's just mind-blowing, right?
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 2: And a bunch of guys on there are private equity guys. Again,
• 1:54:18
  Speaker 2: it's an unbelievable business. They've gotten unbelievably rich. And as
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 2: Tom Wolfe said, insulate, insulate, insulate. They've done that in spades, right?
• 1:54:29
  Speaker 2: They are the most insular, insulated group. They've totally lost
• 1:54:33
  Speaker 2: touch with reality. But nevertheless, we celebrate them. They're fabulous.
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 2: We love them, et cetera. So they have a huge
• 1:54:42
  Speaker 2: PR problem. They should think about correcting some of that.
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 2: Instead of fighting some of the things that politicians go
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 2: after them for, maybe make a concession or two. Instead
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 2: of always fighting carried interest, maybe they wouldn't be that
• 1:55:03
  Speaker 2: worse off if they.
• 1:55:04
  Speaker 1: Had to pay A little bit more taxes. Yeah. Hey,
• 1:55:07
  Speaker 1: Ken Griffin says we cut taxes too much. Ken Griffin
• 1:55:12
  Speaker 1: said this.
• 1:55:13
  Speaker 2: They all say tax me more, knowing that, of course,
• 1:55:16
  Speaker 2: it's never going to happen. Right. And you know that
• 1:55:19
  Speaker 2: better than any. But, you know, so instead of fighting
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: the carried interest boogeyman. Give into it. You're already plenty rich.
• 1:55:29
  Speaker 2: You're still going to be rich. The rest of us
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: pay ordinary income rates, and hopefully we can increase our
• 1:55:36
  Speaker 2: wealth over time. You're just going to be just fine.
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 2: Instead of constantly fighting for lower taxes, which these guys do,
• 1:55:47
  Speaker 2: it's like I've heard them complain so much about Obama, Biden, Harris.
• 1:55:56
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm thinking to myself, look at how much
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 2: your net worths have increased during Obama, Biden, Harris. I mean,
• 1:56:05
  Speaker 2: it's phenomenal. What do you have to complain about? Well,
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 2: you know, they don't like people who make money. They
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: don't like private equity guys. With Trump, at least I
• 1:56:14
  Speaker 2: can get him on the phone. You know, they love
• 1:56:16
  Speaker 2: to say things like that.
• 1:56:26
  Speaker 1: I've heard that. I know with Obama, they got to
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: talk to Ron. With Trump, they get to talk to Trump.
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 1: I've heard this same complaint.
• 1:56:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, what are you complaining about? Your net worth
• 1:56:35
  Speaker 2: has gone from nothing to $ 15 billion. This has all
• 1:56:39
  Speaker 2: been very, very good for you.
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 1: How much of it's ego? They just, you know, hey,
• 1:56:44
  Speaker 1: I should be talking to the president. You know, is
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 1: it ego?
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, I'm sure they believe that. They also
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 2: believe their shit doesn't stink. You know, that they... They
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 2: all believe they should be Treasury Secretary, and they would
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 2: do a much better job than the person who has it,
• 1:57:01
  Speaker 2: even if it's them. Even one of them.
• 1:57:04
  Speaker 1: I was just going to say, how is Besson's reputation
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: right now?
• 1:57:08
  Speaker 2: Terrible. I mean, I think he's a joke. And I
• 1:57:13
  Speaker 2: think most people on Wall Street think he's a joke.
• 1:57:16
  Speaker 1: And I accepted the premise that he could be one
• 1:57:19
  Speaker 1: of the adults in the room, and he's.
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 2: Turned out not to be. I don't know how you
• 1:57:22
  Speaker 2: accepted that premise. I don't know how anybody who agreed to.
• 1:57:26
  Speaker 1: Be in the cabinet. You thought he was a joke
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: from the get-go?
• 1:57:30
  Speaker 2: Yes. Anybody who agreed to be in the cabinet, anybody
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 2: who was to be selected to be in the cabinet
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 2: for the second term, who agreed to be into it,
• 1:57:41
  Speaker 2: to me, was a joke. Was a sycophant, had geography,
• 1:57:47
  Speaker 2: yes man, totally lost the plot.
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 1: Well, supposedly there was a group of normies that were
• 1:57:53
  Speaker 1: trying to, you know, force Trump to take Besson. Right.
• 1:57:56
  Speaker 1: That was the that was the way it was sold
• 1:57:58
  Speaker 1: to some in Washington. No, no, no, no, no. Rubio
• 1:58:01
  Speaker 1: and Besson, they're going to make sure that Trump doesn't
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: totally drive into the ditch. And as we've known, Besson
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: has turned out to be the exact opposite.
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 2: Of that.
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: He seems to have loved being a celebrity, a low
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: rent celebrity and things like this. And Rubio's the Homer
• 1:58:17
  Speaker 1: Simpson into the bushes guy pretty much every week.
• 1:58:20
  Speaker 2: But I mean, Besson's pathetic effort to try to, uh,
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 2: buy a long-term debt to, uh, lower interest rates. Treasury
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 2: market trades a trillion dollars of securities a day, and
• 1:58:37
  Speaker 2: he's in there buying $ 4 billion or $ 6 billion. I mean,
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 2: nobody thought that. And it didn't work. Look where interest
• 1:58:44
  Speaker 2: rates were when he started this plan, and look where
• 1:58:47
  Speaker 2: they are now. They've exploded like up nearly 100 basis points.
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 2: So it's a pathetic display by a Treasury secretary.
• 1:58:56
  Speaker 1: One last thing on bad PR for private equity, and frankly,
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: the guy you wrote about, and it's Epstein. How much–
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: and it's interesting, on the campaign trail right now, Bill,
• 1:59:11
  Speaker 1: you're seeing suddenly– Epstein attacks are being essentially like, Hey,
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 1: it's the rich people. It's they're getting away with, right.
• 1:59:19
  Speaker 1: It's not a specific, it's a general and it's all
• 1:59:22
  Speaker 1: being put into, you know, they're living in their own world.
• 1:59:25
  Speaker 1: They get to do whatever the hell they want. Um,
• 1:59:29
  Speaker 1: how much exposure do you think some of these guys
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 1: have in the, in that world and how much of
• 1:59:34
  Speaker 1: it is, it's just sticking to them because Epstein was
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: a part of their world for a while.
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, the people who, um, had interactions with
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 2: epstein never paid the price for that uh is that
• 1:59:51
  Speaker 2: what you're referring to i mean like.
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: Well i mean have that i mean you know i
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 1: mean you i mean you know.
• 1:59:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah leon black is still worth 18 billion dollars but
• 2:00:00
  Speaker 2: he's he's sort of held in.
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: No one's going to do business with him is what
• 2:00:04
  Speaker 1: you're saying well.
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 2: No no but he's in like a purgatory of sorts
• 2:00:08
  Speaker 2: right uh you know he's He's, uh, people like he,
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 2: he told me that, you know, he's got more than
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 2: a billion. This is a perfect example. He's got a billion,
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 2: more than a billion dollars in his foundation. He'd like
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 2: to give away and he can't really, nobody wants it
• 2:00:21
  Speaker 2: away because, you know, it's kind of like he's tainted,
• 2:00:25
  Speaker 2: tainted money because of he's Leon Black and his interactions
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 2: with Jeffrey Epstein. Now that's maybe in the nonprofit world,
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 2: but obviously there are plenty of people who still do business.
• 2:00:37
  Speaker 2: Like he has a family office and he buys and
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 2: sells companies. he's still the largest shareholder at Apollo. He's
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 2: not involved with the company anymore, but he's still the
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 2: largest shareholder. So that gives him plenty of access. I mean,
• 2:00:50
  Speaker 2: he's got one of the best art collections in private
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 2: hands in the world. I mean, he's trying to do
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 2: good things, but I think, you know, he spent a
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 2: lot of time with me, I think, in part to
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 2: try to get his version of events out there and
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 2: to try to, you know, rehabilitate his image. But it's
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 2: not easy. It's not easy. He's not all that sympathetic
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 2: a character and, and he may never be. And then
• 2:01:16
  Speaker 2: there are, there are other people like, you know, Larry,
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 2: Larry Summers. I mean, I mean, I mean, I mean,
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 2: people with, you know, exquisite, you know, professional accomplishments and
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 2: then like unbelievably bad personal judgment.
• 2:01:33
  Speaker 1: It's amazing to me what people will do for a
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: free ride on a private plane.
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 2: Yes. I've discovered that.
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: In politics over the years. It's amazing what these guys
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 1: will do for just a free ride.
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 2: And bankers and journalists and then lots of people. It's
• 2:01:53
  Speaker 2: very seductive. And then there are other things that people
• 2:01:58
  Speaker 2: will do to get access to things they might not
• 2:02:01
  Speaker 2: normally get access to. And then their judgment goes out
• 2:02:05
  Speaker 2: the door. And I can I don't mean to be
• 2:02:10
  Speaker 2: so opaque about that, but I mean, Leon had, you know,
• 2:02:14
  Speaker 2: plenty of affairs with women who were not his wife.
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 1: What are his regrets? Does he wish he would have
• 2:02:20
  Speaker 1: done so that he did, you know, does he feel like,
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, is it, or is it just, he feels
• 2:02:25
  Speaker 1: like there's nothing he can do to get people on?
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 2: Well, I mean, he had, you know, we had many, many,
• 2:02:32
  Speaker 2: on-the-record interviews. And I give him credit for that. He
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 2: was very forthright. I mean, you can imagine what I
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 2: was asking him. And he was answering the questions. Now,
• 2:02:43
  Speaker 2: some of it I still scratch my head about. I
• 2:02:46
  Speaker 2: find I'm still rather incredulous about some of his answers.
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 2: But as he points out, like, for instance, no one
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 2: else who's been involved with Epstein has asked to be investigated. uh,
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 2: about his relationship with Epstein. And he asked the special
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 2: committee of the Apollo board of directors to do this study. Uh,
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 2: and they hired this law firm, Deckard and this guy,
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 2: Andy Lavander to, to do it. And the report came
• 2:03:14
  Speaker 2: out in January of 2021. And it was public. It
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 2: was filed with the sec. Uh, and, uh, you know,
• 2:03:22
  Speaker 2: it basically went through, uh, all of Leon's relationships with
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 2: Epstein and, and, uh, nothing, uh, you know, criminal or
• 2:03:30
  Speaker 2: nefarious or anything related to all that innuendo that we
• 2:03:34
  Speaker 2: still believe he's involved with, you know, was included in that. So,
• 2:03:39
  Speaker 2: and he told me, I said, why did you do that, Leah?
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 2: He said, because I knew I didn't do anything wrong. So,
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 2: you know, but how does he, how does he, so
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 2: there's this report that comes out that is an independent
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 2: report that he was investigated. He turned over all of
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 2: his documents and emails and texts or whatever and you
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 2: know it came out that he had paid uh epstein
• 2:04:05
  Speaker 2: 158 million dollars so so which is like a mind-blowing
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 2: amount so even though it didn't find any wrongdoing or
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 2: criminal activity or nefarious activity people are like stuck with
• 2:04:16
  Speaker 2: how could you pay this guy 158 million dollars he
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 2: didn't even graduate you know high school or whatever.
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah. What was it about Epstein that would sucker in
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 1: all these people? I mean, it can't be just the
• 2:04:30
  Speaker 1: free ride on an airplane or free use of the airplane.
• 2:04:33
  Speaker 2: It was he provided them with things they wanted but
• 2:04:39
  Speaker 2: couldn't otherwise get.
• 2:04:41
  Speaker 1: People are going to use their imagination on that, aren't they?
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: And that's what's happened. And I don't, you know, it's,
• 2:04:48
  Speaker 1: it's almost like the JFK conspiracy. People are always going
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: to believe what they believe on this substance. And there's
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 1: no amount, there might not be any amount of new information.
• 2:04:59
  Speaker 2: Seven years ago that the guy committed suicide. We are
• 2:05:02
  Speaker 2: still talking about him. The, the, You get what's another
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 2: example of a law that was unanimously passed and signed
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 2: by the president, even though he's all over those files,
• 2:05:14
  Speaker 2: requiring that they become public. It's I still can't believe
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 2: that happened. Now, it's great for me as sure. So
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 2: I could go through and I'm still looking for the
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 2: other three million. But it certainly let me see what
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 2: was going on between Leon and Epstein, which I otherwise
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 2: wouldn't know.
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 1: Um, let me get you out of here on this.
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 1: So a little bit of a turn, which is, um,
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: one of the, as private equity grows, as private credit grows, um,
• 2:05:43
  Speaker 1: one of the questions, you know, how much insight do
• 2:05:46
  Speaker 1: we really have on the state of, of the economy?
• 2:05:49
  Speaker 1: Is there, is there more stuff hidden than ever or, and,
• 2:05:53
  Speaker 1: and could these hidden things, I mean, you know, um,
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 1: create another economic catastrophe like we went through in 2008, 2009.
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 1: Because it does feel as if they moved a bunch
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 1: of stuff off the books because they didn't like the
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 1: new regulation. And look, money always finds a way. If
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 1: we tighten the rules on banking, fine, they're going to
• 2:06:16
  Speaker 1: go another way and they're going to find regulators that
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 1: are looser, state regulators. To me, the insurance industry makes
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of sense because you don't have to deal
• 2:06:24
  Speaker 1: with the feds.
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 2: There's no federal regulation.
• 2:06:26
  Speaker 1: Right. You get to deal with the states. Now, maybe
• 2:06:28
  Speaker 1: that ends up changing as Washington tries to get their
• 2:06:34
  Speaker 1: arms around this. But as a risk to the economy itself,
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: given there's high, medium, low, where we have so much
• 2:06:47
  Speaker 1: money that's sort of outside of the purview of our
• 2:06:50
  Speaker 1: normal economy. eyeballs when it comes to this, whether it's
• 2:06:55
  Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve, Treasury, et cetera?
• 2:06:57
  Speaker 2: Well, you're talking to the broken clock of economic prognosticators,
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 2: because I'm like a broken clock. I'm right twice a day.
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, so I believe that Look, I'm a- What
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 2: was it?
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: Was it Harry Truman that wanted a one-armed economist, right?
• 2:07:17
  Speaker 1: Because he was tired of hearing them on both, you know,
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 1: on the one hand, on the other hand.
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 2: So, I mean, I've become a, you know, a historian
• 2:07:25
  Speaker 2: of Wall Street, not intentionally, but as a result of
• 2:07:29
  Speaker 2: my books. And so I learned that, you know, we
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 2: have a financial crisis on average once every 20 years.
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 2: And and the last one.
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at my clock here. Right.
• 2:07:43
  Speaker 2: And so we're kind of overdue. You know, after the
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 2: 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve and Congress decided that
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 2: they didn't want the Wall Street banks, the ones that survived.
• 2:07:59
  Speaker 2: To be the cause. of the next financial crisis. So
• 2:08:02
  Speaker 2: they pushed a lot of what they deemed to be
• 2:08:07
  Speaker 2: risky assets out of the Wall Street banks, off the
• 2:08:12
  Speaker 2: balance sheets of the Wall Street banks. They've said you
• 2:08:15
  Speaker 2: can't have as much leverage, you can't hold on to
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 2: these risky assets, you have to You have to distribute them.
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 2: You have to syndicate them. You can't write as many
• 2:08:23
  Speaker 2: of them. And this is why this whole– this is
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 2: the new Wall Street part of the book. This whole
• 2:08:29
  Speaker 2: new Wall Street that's created this sort of alternative asset management,
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 2: the Apollos, the KKRs, the Sixth Street, the Aries, this
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 2: whole what we also call shadow banking, they're not regulated
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 2: by the Fed. As you point out, I mean.
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 1: Almost all by state, right? Basically, they have entities.
• 2:08:47
  Speaker 2: Within them- That's if they have an insurance company, right?
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 1: That they get some oversight.
• 2:08:51
  Speaker 2: If they're public, they're regulated by the SEC. So I
• 2:08:54
  Speaker 2: say they're lightly regulated. The Apollo guys don't like when
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 2: I say that because they say, well, our insurance company,
• 2:09:00
  Speaker 2: which is a big part of our business, is regulated
• 2:09:02
  Speaker 2: by the states. Okay, but that's not quite the same
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 2: as being regulated by the Federal Reserve. So- So that
• 2:09:08
  Speaker 2: is growing like a weed. So like Apollo has a
• 2:09:11
  Speaker 2: trillion dollars of assets under management now. $ 150 billion is
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 2: the same $ 150 billion of private equity they've had for years.
• 2:09:20
  Speaker 2: Now they have $ 850 billion of their trillion is private credit.
• 2:09:25
  Speaker 2: And that's all grown since 2008. It was nothing, zero
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 2: in 2008. Now it's $ 850 billion. OK, so that has
• 2:09:33
  Speaker 2: grown like a week and that's their growth area. And
• 2:09:36
  Speaker 2: that's the same thing that's happened across this sort of
• 2:09:39
  Speaker 2: unregulated landscape. OK, and now it's like a 40 trillion
• 2:09:43
  Speaker 2: dollar market for private.
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, I kind of think we know what's going
• 2:09:47
  Speaker 1: to happen. We're going to have a problem. And then
• 2:09:49
  Speaker 1: suddenly Wall Street or Washington is going to say, hey,
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 1: how come we're not regulating this?
• 2:09:53
  Speaker 2: Well, why aren't they already regulating it?
• 2:09:57
  Speaker 1: We always wait for the crisis. You know this.
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 2: OK, but. you'd think we would learn this lesson. So
• 2:10:03
  Speaker 2: we don't, we never learned the lesson. We never learned
• 2:10:05
  Speaker 2: the lesson. It's like, I think that, you know, you
• 2:10:09
  Speaker 2: have to understand if you look in a fractional banking system,
• 2:10:12
  Speaker 2: which is what we have, which means that people put
• 2:10:15
  Speaker 2: deposits in banks and the deposits aren't there, or they put, they, they,
• 2:10:21
  Speaker 2: or they buy an annuity from Apollo. That money is
• 2:10:24
  Speaker 2: not in the bank. If it, if we're ever in
• 2:10:27
  Speaker 2: the bank, the bank couldn't make any money. The money,
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 2: The banks take that money and they lend it out.
• 2:10:31
  Speaker 2: And it's fine as long as everybody doesn't want their
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 2: money at the same time. But when they do, it's
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 2: a disaster. So we're basically willing to put up with
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 2: the fact that once every 20 years, people are going
• 2:10:42
  Speaker 2: to freak out and want their money at the same time.
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 2: And that's what happened in 2008. That's what always happens.
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 2: It's always the same. This might be a little different
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 2: because at least like Apollo, they believed that they have
• 2:10:55
  Speaker 2: matched the duration, not to get too technical with your audience,
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 2: they've matched the duration of their assets and their liabilities.
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 2: The liability, what they owe the annuity holders is like
• 2:11:05
  Speaker 2: five or seven or 10 years. And their assets, the
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 2: senior secure debt that they're invested in is also seven
• 2:11:13
  Speaker 2: or 10 years. So you can't, it's a little harder
• 2:11:16
  Speaker 2: than being able to go to your ATM machine and
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 2: taking your money out that same day and having your
• 2:11:22
  Speaker 2: assets being 10-year treasuries like what happened in Silicon Valley Bank,
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 2: which blew people's mind. Bank disappeared in a day.
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 1: I could keep going. I really appreciate this. I feel
• 2:11:35
  Speaker 1: like I learn a ton. And I do think it's
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: like we know, you know, how much. And, you know,
• 2:11:42
  Speaker 1: my fear is many politicians who are about to get
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 1: elected don't understand this world. And yet we're asking them
• 2:11:48
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to regulate it. Hell, I hope
• 2:11:51
  Speaker 1: they at least read your book. Speaking of which, where
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 1: can people find all your stuff? Where should they go
• 2:11:55
  Speaker 1: find more Bill Cohen?
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 2: Well, there's there's Puck, which, you know, is. like an octopus.
• 2:12:00
  Speaker 2: It's everywhere.
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 1: We're all at once.
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 2: I have a website, uh, William Cohen.com and eight books.
• 2:12:07
  Speaker 2: So they're all, it's all out there, baby.
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 1: Look, they're very readable. Business books aren't always readable, like
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 1: financial books like this. Um, you're, you're a terrific writer. Uh,
• 2:12:16
  Speaker 1: you make it very accessible. So I appreciate it.
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 2: So have you enjoyed, uh, becoming a podcaster? I, uh, I've,
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 2: I love it. I, the, the last three or the
• 2:12:26
  Speaker 2: last three or four years, uh, was very frustrating because
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 2: we just kept shrinking the interview slots.
• 2:12:33
  Speaker 1: And in fact, I think the more you shrink an
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: interview slot on legacy television, the more, the more unintentionally
• 2:12:41
  Speaker 1: antagonistic you make the interview because everybody's in a hurry.
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 1: And when you're in a hurry to make a point,
• 2:12:46
  Speaker 1: when you're in a hurry to ask a question, when
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 1: you're in a hurry to get to the next, you
• 2:12:49
  Speaker 1: remember everything. And so my theory was that everybody had
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 1: hacked the, the legacy TV interviewed timing. Everybody knew, well,
• 2:13:00
  Speaker 1: they're not going to go more than eight to 10
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 1: minutes and I can filibuster here and I can do this,
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 1: the beauty of this environment. And I think why more
• 2:13:06
  Speaker 1: people gravitate to it is we can do what we
• 2:13:09
  Speaker 1: just had. And you can't do, you can't do your topic.
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: In a five-minute segment on Meet the Press. As much
• 2:13:17
  Speaker 1: as I, and I don't know if I could have
• 2:13:18
  Speaker 1: done it in a 10. And you're not going to
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 1: do it in a five-minute interview on Squawk Box either,
• 2:13:23
  Speaker 1: even though the audience knows the stuff.
• 2:13:25
  Speaker 2: I know. I know. But that's what you're forced into.
• 2:13:28
  Speaker 2: That's why I like it.
• 2:13:30
  Speaker 1: I view it as this is sort of 21st century magazines, right?
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 1: We don't do the 10,000 word magazine piece anymore. You know, I,
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 1: I would, I just started getting some gigs writing on
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 1: that in the late nineties, early aughts. And then suddenly
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 1: there was no money to be made as a freelancer
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: doing those pieces because you realize people were moving, you know,
• 2:13:48
  Speaker 1: they were moving online. That's what I feel like the
• 2:13:50
  Speaker 1: podcast space has become. It's sort of, where can I
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 1: get You know, just like you would sit down with
• 2:13:55
  Speaker 1: a big magazine piece to understand an idea or a
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 1: person without maybe reading the whole book.
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 1: Without doing a full on book. I think that's the space.
• 2:14:05
  Speaker 1: I'd like to think that's the space we're all we're
• 2:14:07
  Speaker 1: filling here a little bit.
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 2: Good. Well, you're very good at it. So thank you
• 2:14:11
  Speaker 2: for having me.
• 2:14:12
  Speaker 1: All right, Bill.
• 2:14:13
  Speaker 2: Good luck.
• 2:14:14
  Speaker 1: And I'm a huge Puck fan. I mean, first of all,
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 1: I love John Oron. Yeah. old sports business daily guy.
• 2:14:22
  Speaker 1: So I'm always going to promote that. Leanne Caldwell worked
• 2:14:24
  Speaker 1: with me forever. So to think that you have a
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 1: good team, at least as far.
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 2: As I'm concerned. Yes, we do.
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 1: Yes.
• 2:14:34
  Speaker 2: Well, now Jerry Cardinal is the team owner.
• 2:14:38
  Speaker 1: There you go. And he's the type of person that
• 2:14:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of people want to be owned by these days.
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 1: And I'll just leave it at that.
• 2:14:44
  Speaker 2: Anyway. All right.
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 1: Thanks, brother.
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 2: Bye.
• 2:14:51
  Speaker 1: Ash Chuck. All right, let's do a little Ash Chuck.
• 2:14:57
  Speaker 1: This is where I guess I start doing my Trump dance.
• 2:15:00
  Speaker 1: I know some of you don't want me to do that. Oh,
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 1: I got a glue tag. Oh, it's not a glue tag.
• 2:15:07
  Speaker 1: It's a Mizzou tiger. So I can't can't do my
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 1: head around here. Anyway, Shane here still proudly hailing from
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: Missouri's original. and controversial fifth congressional district. With the mess
• 2:15:21
  Speaker 1: surrounding our congressional map, you mentioned the upcoming election could
• 2:15:23
  Speaker 1: potentially be thrown out and or ruled void. But what
• 2:15:26
  Speaker 1: would that actually mean for voters? Would we have to
• 2:15:29
  Speaker 1: hold another primary in a special election? Or would the
• 2:15:31
  Speaker 1: process look different? Seems like following Texas's approach a few
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 1: years back could have saved everyone a lot of headaches. Yes.
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: On another note, I knew Ole Miss would be tough
• 2:15:40
  Speaker 1: for Mizzou, but that loss really stung. Thankfully, we got
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: a bye week to recover before Arkansas go Tigers M-I-Z. Listen,
• 2:15:48
  Speaker 1: Missouri needs to win a road game, right? I mean,
• 2:15:50
  Speaker 1: we've seen that. What is it? It's a, man, I'm sure,
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 1: and I know you've seen it. It's like one in
• 2:15:55
  Speaker 1: 18 against ranked teams on the road or something like that.
• 2:15:57
  Speaker 1: All right, now to the serious part of your question.
• 2:16:01
  Speaker 1: Like I said, gotta win a road game. Come on, Mizzou.
• 2:16:05
  Speaker 1: And I have family who went to Mizzou, multiple family members.
• 2:16:08
  Speaker 1: So they're part of my larger orbit of schools I
• 2:16:11
  Speaker 1: would like to see succeed. So just know, that, uh,
• 2:16:18
  Speaker 1: this is, this is criticism that comes from a, from a,
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 1: from a loving place. Um, but as for what you're
• 2:16:25
  Speaker 1: talking about, look, it will be a revote of some sort, right? And,
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: and I look, all of this depends. It would be
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: up to a voter to sue. It could be up
• 2:16:35
  Speaker 1: to a candidate to sue. It's not clear who would
• 2:16:38
  Speaker 1: have standing. Um, a voter would have standing, you know,
• 2:16:42
  Speaker 1: but a candidate would have standing because the primary was
• 2:16:45
  Speaker 1: a different, um, congressional, literally different math than what was
• 2:16:51
  Speaker 1: used for the general. You know the Texas model, it
• 2:16:54
  Speaker 1: sounds like, which was when they went through this before,
• 2:16:57
  Speaker 1: they essentially were able to do it in time so
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 1: that the November election was everybody on the same ballot,
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: sort of an all-party primary, and if nobody got 50%,
• 2:17:06
  Speaker 1: the top two met in a runoff in December. So look,
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 1: but by the way, that election schedule was dictated by
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: a federal judge. It was not something that was done
• 2:17:19
  Speaker 1: by the state of Texas. A federal judge said, this
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 1: is how you're going to do it. So it would take,
• 2:17:24
  Speaker 1: my guess is if this happens, it will be a
• 2:17:27
  Speaker 1: literally court-ordered election and a court-ordered process of how said
• 2:17:33
  Speaker 1: election was going. The best precedent we have to look
• 2:17:37
  Speaker 1: back on to potentially use as a model is that
• 2:17:41
  Speaker 1: Texas precedent from the mid-' 90s. But, you know, to have it,
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 1: it's possible to try to avoid this mess because that
• 2:17:51
  Speaker 1: they will go with, you know, where the courts might not.
• 2:17:56
  Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see who would have standing to
• 2:17:59
  Speaker 1: file a suit on this, whether it's a candidate who
• 2:18:02
  Speaker 1: lost in the other primary, didn't get a chance to
• 2:18:05
  Speaker 1: run on this one. I mean, just look at your
• 2:18:07
  Speaker 1: fifth congressional district, who would have, you know, who would
• 2:18:10
  Speaker 1: have run and who wouldn't have run depending on right where,
• 2:18:14
  Speaker 1: where things were. So, but I do think that that
• 2:18:20
  Speaker 1: suit would have to be filed before certification for what
• 2:18:23
  Speaker 1: it's worth on that front. All right. Next question comes
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 1: from Reggie and he says, Hey, going back to your
• 2:18:30
  Speaker 1: NBC days, you've always been great at identifying key counties
• 2:18:33
  Speaker 1: to watch on election night. So Which bellwether counties are
• 2:18:36
  Speaker 1: on your radar this year? There's an Austin city slicker
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 1: in Texas, House District 48, and Texas' 27th congressional district.
• 2:18:44
  Speaker 1: I'm particularly curious about rural farming counties across West Texas, Kansas, Nebraska,
• 2:18:48
  Speaker 1: and Iowa, where even narrowing Trump's previous three-to-one or four-to-one
• 2:18:53
  Speaker 1: margin to two-to-one could signal serious trouble for Republicans. Are
• 2:18:57
  Speaker 1: you watching places like Midland, Lubbock, Amarillo, Dodge City for signs?
• 2:19:00
  Speaker 1: The shift towards purple historically do major electoral waves affect
• 2:19:03
  Speaker 1: federal and statewide races equally, or can the impact be
• 2:19:07
  Speaker 1: concentrated at one level? Thanks for the great program. Well, look,
• 2:19:10
  Speaker 1: you are.
• 2:19:12
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 1: And in fact, that I'm going to have in the
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: next week. What do I have? How many more episodes
• 2:19:19
  Speaker 1: of the podcast and Super Tuesday? I think I'm going
• 2:19:21
  Speaker 1: to have at least four more. Look, Chris and I
• 2:19:23
  Speaker 1: are going to do an interesting voters guide. I'm going
• 2:19:26
  Speaker 1: to do a viewer's guide a week from now going
• 2:19:29
  Speaker 1: into election time. election day so that you have that
• 2:19:33
  Speaker 1: sort of how to watch the night hour by hour.
• 2:19:36
  Speaker 1: But next Wednesday, I do plan to get deeper into counties. But,
• 2:19:39
  Speaker 1: you know, this is the first competitive election in Texas
• 2:19:43
  Speaker 1: that we knew was going to happen in advance, right?
• 2:19:45
  Speaker 1: The Beto, Ted Cruz, the fact that that ended up close,
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 1: nobody believed it was close. You know, many of us didn't,
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 1: you know, but ultimately you're correct in what you're identifying
• 2:19:57
  Speaker 1: that it isn't necessarily swing counties, but there, look, I'm fascinated.
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 1: North Texas is what I'm obsessed with. Part of it
• 2:20:04
  Speaker 1: is I spend more time in North Texas because my
• 2:20:05
  Speaker 1: son goes to school in Dallas, but Tarrant County in particular, right?
• 2:20:10
  Speaker 1: We've been watching this County slowly move from red to purple.
• 2:20:17
  Speaker 1: What happens in Tarrant County, right? That's, I do think margins, though,
• 2:20:24
  Speaker 1: will matter, right? Tarrant could be swinging. Tarrant could be
• 2:20:26
  Speaker 1: one where I think Biden carried Tarrant in 2020. If
• 2:20:32
  Speaker 1: he didn't, he came awfully close. But those, you know,
• 2:20:36
  Speaker 1: that's one quickie, you know, I could tell you. But
• 2:20:39
  Speaker 1: it's more about margins, right? What's the margin in Harris?
• 2:20:42
  Speaker 1: What's the margin of Bayer? What's the margin in Travis?
• 2:20:45
  Speaker 1: And then going, you know, it's also the raw turnout, right?
• 2:20:51
  Speaker 1: Paxton could have a four or five to one advantage
• 2:20:53
  Speaker 1: in some of these counties, but if turnout is down 10%, well,
• 2:20:56
  Speaker 1: suddenly that's a hollow, right? Those are hollow advantages too. So, right,
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 1: there's different ways to look at it. It's not just
• 2:21:03
  Speaker 1: what are the margins in these rural areas? What is
• 2:21:06
  Speaker 1: the raw turnout in these rural areas? And then obviously
• 2:21:09
  Speaker 1: it's all the South Texas counties, right? All of those
• 2:21:13
  Speaker 1: counties that swung towards Trump, not all of them ended
• 2:21:16
  Speaker 1: up being carried by Trump, but they certainly swung towards him.
• 2:21:19
  Speaker 1: what is the snapback and how big is the snapback?
• 2:21:21
  Speaker 1: So look, I'm giving you that general overview, but there's
• 2:21:25
  Speaker 1: basically five or six watch counties that I have in
• 2:21:29
  Speaker 1: all of these key Senate races, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Texas.
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 1: And you have reminded me that I need, that is,
• 2:21:38
  Speaker 1: we are going to have, that is going to be
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 1: part of the, particularly the Wednesday, next Wednesday's episode of
• 2:21:45
  Speaker 1: the Toddcast. We will spend a lot of time on, Essentially,
• 2:21:49
  Speaker 1: the the six states, because I would you know, one
• 2:21:53
  Speaker 1: of the things I didn't. One of the things that's
• 2:21:58
  Speaker 1: clear to me right now is Senate Democrats do not
• 2:22:02
  Speaker 1: believe that they're not they're not counting on winning Kansas.
• 2:22:07
  Speaker 1: They're not counting on winning Nebraska. They're not counting on
• 2:22:09
  Speaker 1: winning South Carolina. The path to the Senate majority goes
• 2:22:14
  Speaker 1: through six states, I think, as far as Senate Democrats
• 2:22:16
  Speaker 1: are concerned. Maine and Michigan on one side, two states
• 2:22:20
  Speaker 1: that they're even or maybe slightly behind in. And then
• 2:22:25
  Speaker 1: North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas. So seven, excuse me.
• 2:22:31
  Speaker 1: So it's seven states that the assumption is that's where
• 2:22:37
  Speaker 1: the Senate is going to be decided. Now, If Kansas
• 2:22:40
  Speaker 1: ends up flipping, South Carolina ends up flipping, that's how
• 2:22:42
  Speaker 1: Democrats go from 51 Senate seats to 52, 53, 54.
• 2:22:47
  Speaker 1: But that gets into the tsunami territory, right? That gets
• 2:22:50
  Speaker 1: into Republicans actually leaving the party and voting for Democrats.
• 2:22:56
  Speaker 1: That's what it takes for them to win in South Carolina,
• 2:22:59
  Speaker 1: win in Nebraska, and win in Kansas. Another question. from
• 2:23:08
  Speaker 1: Missouri's 5th District. We have Shane, who was earlier, right? Well,
• 2:23:11
  Speaker 1: now I got Matt writing in from Missouri's 5th. Man,
• 2:23:14
  Speaker 1: we are killing it in the Kansas City market. See,
• 2:23:17
  Speaker 1: this is what happened. I visit Kansas City, and we
• 2:23:20
  Speaker 1: just add more and more great listeners and viewers. So anyway,
• 2:23:24
  Speaker 1: Matt in Missouri's 5th writes, hey, I avoid social media religiously,
• 2:23:28
  Speaker 1: so I've missed the YMCA speculation and Trump's newfound admiration
• 2:23:32
  Speaker 1: for the male physique. But hearing you and Chris discuss
• 2:23:34
  Speaker 1: how Pete Hegseth always seems to get the benefit of
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 1: the doubt reminded me of Trump's treatment of Vladimir Putin.
• 2:23:40
  Speaker 1: As ridiculous as it sounds, could Trump's Russia-friendly foreign policy
• 2:23:43
  Speaker 1: simply come down to a man crush? Those shirtless horseback
• 2:23:47
  Speaker 1: photos certainly made an impression. And speaking of your October
• 2:23:51
  Speaker 1: 19th episode, you asked how much Trump cares about the
• 2:23:54
  Speaker 1: future of the Republican Party, but perhaps the bigger question is,
• 2:23:56
  Speaker 1: how much does he care about the future of the
• 2:23:58
  Speaker 1: United States?
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 2: Ouch.
• 2:24:00
  Speaker 1: Look, Donald Trump cares about Donald Trump. And Donald Trump's
• 2:24:05
  Speaker 1: success can come at the expense of anybody, as long
• 2:24:08
  Speaker 1: as it comes with Donald Trump's success. And in fact,
• 2:24:13
  Speaker 1: when he would say, if I win, the country wins, right?
• 2:24:17
  Speaker 1: That's his mindset. So in his own way, if he's
• 2:24:21
  Speaker 1: doing well, then he thinks the country's doing well. And
• 2:24:24
  Speaker 1: I am convinced why he doesn't fully appreciate this affordability
• 2:24:27
  Speaker 1: issue is because he does not interact with anybody that
• 2:24:32
  Speaker 1: has a mortgage. or has to have a mortgage. He
• 2:24:36
  Speaker 1: might have a staffer or two that has a mortgage,
• 2:24:39
  Speaker 1: but he may not, I don't think he considers them peers.
• 2:24:42
  Speaker 1: When he thinks about the peers, the people he hangs
• 2:24:45
  Speaker 1: out with, I think he's incredibly out of touch. Look,
• 2:24:51
  Speaker 1: I think you're, my guess is Putin's too short for
• 2:24:55
  Speaker 1: Trump on this front. But honestly, it is the I
• 2:25:01
  Speaker 1: probably get more questions now about this than anything else
• 2:25:04
  Speaker 1: in the, in my, from friends and family, right. Is
• 2:25:08
  Speaker 1: what is going on? Is grandpa coming out of the closet?
• 2:25:11
  Speaker 1: It's the, is sort of like, I don't know. None
• 2:25:14
  Speaker 1: of us know. Um, but if you wanted to read
• 2:25:19
  Speaker 1: the tea leaves of, of Trump, right. You YMCA, he
• 2:25:23
  Speaker 1: brags about that. You know, he knows that it's the
• 2:25:25
  Speaker 1: gay Anthem. He's always been, he's always been a gay friendly, um,
• 2:25:30
  Speaker 1: candidate or boss or however you want to do it.
• 2:25:33
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's not been a hypocrite on these issues.
• 2:25:38
  Speaker 1: In fact, there was a time it was his being
• 2:25:41
  Speaker 1: friendly to the gay community, all that was seen as
• 2:25:45
  Speaker 1: proof that he was some liberal back in the day. Look,
• 2:25:54
  Speaker 1: I think this is a guy in his 80s who
• 2:25:56
  Speaker 1: no longer has a filter. And I think it means
• 2:26:00
  Speaker 1: that grandma and grandpa say the damnedest things. And you're like, whoa,
• 2:26:05
  Speaker 1: I didn't know that. Well, you know, now you do
• 2:26:09
  Speaker 1: type of thing. Look, so many things of the Trump
• 2:26:19
  Speaker 1: era are predictable. It's kind of nice to have something
• 2:26:21
  Speaker 1: unpredictable happen in the Trump era lately. And this certainly
• 2:26:26
  Speaker 1: was a plot twist that nobody saw coming here in
• 2:26:30
  Speaker 1: Are we in the penultimate episode of the Trump era?
• 2:26:34
  Speaker 1: So in theory, this is the type of plot twist
• 2:26:38
  Speaker 1: you get in the second to last episode. If we
• 2:26:43
  Speaker 1: assume this is the penultimate and then we get the
• 2:26:48
  Speaker 1: end state and the last episode for the last two years.
• 2:26:51
  Speaker 2: Anyway.
• 2:26:54
  Speaker 1: All right. I got Jonathan W. in Northampton, Massachusetts, the
• 2:26:57
  Speaker 1: second district there in Massachusetts in the Bay State. He goes, hey,
• 2:27:02
  Speaker 1: I just heard that the Republican lieutenant governor nominee in Massachusetts,
• 2:27:04
  Speaker 1: a New Bedford City counselor who ran unopposed, suspended his
• 2:27:07
  Speaker 1: campaign after repeatedly being arrested following a after reportedly excuse me,
• 2:27:12
  Speaker 1: I said repeatedly my blurry eyes here, reportedly being arrested
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 1: following a drunk driving crash over the weekend. Massachusetts law
• 2:27:18
  Speaker 1: say about replacing a nominee who withdraws. This close to
• 2:27:21
  Speaker 1: election day, does a Republican gubernatorial nominee get to choose
• 2:27:24
  Speaker 1: a replacement or is there another process? Just curious. Jonathan W. Well, Jonathan, well, look,
• 2:27:32
  Speaker 1: he can drop out, but there's no right. They're still
• 2:27:36
  Speaker 1: elected together as a ticket. Obviously, they're not going to win.
• 2:27:40
  Speaker 1: but he can get out of the race, but they
• 2:27:43
  Speaker 1: can't take his name off the ballot. Had it happened
• 2:27:46
  Speaker 1: sooner before the printing of ballots, the party could have
• 2:27:48
  Speaker 1: put on a replacement. But, you know, had he won,
• 2:27:53
  Speaker 1: maybe he declines the oath and then there's something else.
• 2:27:55
  Speaker 1: But the bottom line is his name has to stay
• 2:27:58
  Speaker 1: on the ballot. They cannot take his name off the ballot.
• 2:28:01
  Speaker 1: It is too late to do a replacement, any of
• 2:28:03
  Speaker 1: that business. So obviously, if there's a victory, then then
• 2:28:08
  Speaker 1: there's then there's a scenario here. But me thinks Maura
• 2:28:13
  Speaker 1: Healey and her lieutenant governor are going to are going
• 2:28:16
  Speaker 1: to end up victorious here. And we won't have to
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 1: figure figure this out post Election Day. But bottom line is,
• 2:28:22
  Speaker 1: it is if you're at a certain point once they
• 2:28:24
  Speaker 1: printed the ballots. I can think of a few circumstances
• 2:28:29
  Speaker 1: where literally you'd see a sticker over somebody's name, you know,
• 2:28:34
  Speaker 1: if a court ordered a person's name off the ballot.
• 2:28:36
  Speaker 1: But that usually only happens after ballot printing if, you know,
• 2:28:42
  Speaker 1: if there was somebody that was on there that shouldn't
• 2:28:44
  Speaker 1: have been on there or something like that.
• 2:28:47
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:28:48
  Speaker 1: Nate in Pennsylvania's 3rd District comes in with the last
• 2:28:50
  Speaker 1: question of the show. Nate here from Pennsylvania 3, longtime
• 2:28:53
  Speaker 1: listener and aspiring First Time Question Club member. Well, welcome.
• 2:28:57
  Speaker 1: You made it. Good job, Nate. If Democrats win the
• 2:29:00
  Speaker 1: Senate this year, do you think eliminating the filibuster is inevitable,
• 2:29:03
  Speaker 1: especially with Manchin and Sinema no longer around to oppose it?
• 2:29:06
  Speaker 1: Did any current or incoming Democratic senators stand in the way?
• 2:29:10
  Speaker 1: And how would eliminating it shape Trump's final two years
• 2:29:12
  Speaker 1: and beyond? Also, love the college football talk. The Matt
• 2:29:15
  Speaker 1: Campbell era hasn't started quite as well as we'd hoped.
• 2:29:19
  Speaker 1: but we're still dreaming of another 87-fistable moment. Thank you,
• 2:29:22
  Speaker 1: and we are. Yeah, really? You want to bring up
• 2:29:24
  Speaker 1: that Penn State moment? You know, if Vinny Testaverde hands
• 2:29:28
  Speaker 1: the ball off to Alonzo Highsmith instead of trying to
• 2:29:31
  Speaker 1: throw the ball there, Miami wins that game on the
• 2:29:34
  Speaker 1: last play. Anyway, to say that... You know, it's funny.
• 2:29:39
  Speaker 1: Miami's won five national titles, and the two games that
• 2:29:42
  Speaker 1: I think about the most in Miami is the two losses.
• 2:29:47
  Speaker 1: The Terry Porter flag that was thrown against Ohio State
• 2:29:49
  Speaker 1: in the 2002 season, 2003 Fiesta Bowl, and the 87,
• 2:29:56
  Speaker 1: the unofficial first BCS national title game. I say unofficial
• 2:30:00
  Speaker 1: because there was no BCS then, but the Fiesta Bowl,
• 2:30:02
  Speaker 1: all on their own, decided to offer Miami and Penn
• 2:30:06
  Speaker 1: State a chance to play for the national title. And really...
• 2:30:09
  Speaker 1: What both Miami and Penn State did was made the
• 2:30:11
  Speaker 1: Fiesta Bowl a major bowl. They weren't considered a major
• 2:30:14
  Speaker 1: bowl until they pulled that off. So it's one of
• 2:30:20
  Speaker 1: those that I think is, I mean, it's historically relevant.
• 2:30:24
  Speaker 1: I think Vinny is still throwing interceptions from that game.
• 2:30:26
  Speaker 1: But those two titles, it's probably the way Pats fans
• 2:30:30
  Speaker 1: feel about the two Eli Manning losses, right? I think
• 2:30:33
  Speaker 1: about those two losses because arguably the two of the
• 2:30:38
  Speaker 1: greatest collections of talent miami ever had that didn't win
• 2:30:42
  Speaker 1: titles is that 86 miami team which was better than
• 2:30:46
  Speaker 1: the 87 team that went did win a title and
• 2:30:49
  Speaker 1: the oh look the o2 team was as good as
• 2:30:52
  Speaker 1: the o1 team you know with maybe the exception we
• 2:30:56
  Speaker 1: didn't have andre johnson uh and we didn't have uh
• 2:30:59
  Speaker 1: ed reed on the o2 team we only had sean
• 2:31:02
  Speaker 1: taylor on the o2 team um Anyway, about the filibuster,
• 2:31:07
  Speaker 1: I'm not convinced it goes. Because guess what? There's a
• 2:31:11
  Speaker 1: lot of Democratic senators who've been in the minority who
• 2:31:13
  Speaker 1: were probably happy that the filibuster was still there. So,
• 2:31:18
  Speaker 1: you know, one of the things that I've learned over
• 2:31:20
  Speaker 1: the years in the Senate with this filibuster issue.
• 2:31:22
  Speaker 2: Is that.
• 2:31:24
  Speaker 1: Just when you think you've got the vote, somebody new
• 2:31:26
  Speaker 1: has decided maybe there's something to this filibuster. Do I
• 2:31:30
  Speaker 1: think they may change some of the rules of the
• 2:31:32
  Speaker 1: filibuster and how you do? Yes, I do. maybe forcing
• 2:31:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit more talking, forcing, um, you know, creating
• 2:31:40
  Speaker 1: a different time limit or something like that. I could
• 2:31:43
  Speaker 1: see some changes. And remember, this is a, just a,
• 2:31:47
  Speaker 1: this is just a rules that the, that the Senate
• 2:31:50
  Speaker 1: will vote on when there is a new Senate and
• 2:31:53
  Speaker 1: they do these things. So, but I am not, um,
• 2:31:58
  Speaker 1: I am not convinced that the filibuster is, is definitely
• 2:32:02
  Speaker 1: gone here. Um, Because if there was no filibuster, there
• 2:32:06
  Speaker 1: might have been a safe act. And I wonder how
• 2:32:08
  Speaker 1: Democrats would have felt about that. So I'm still a skeptic.
• 2:32:18
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to think. Let's say they win 52 Senate seats.
• 2:32:22
  Speaker 1: Is there 51 votes for ending the filibuster in that
• 2:32:26
  Speaker 1: new Senate? Is Maria Cantwell going to be against filibuster?
• 2:32:31
  Speaker 1: Is Patty Murray? It's Alyssa Slotkin. Sherrod Brown. I don't know.
• 2:32:41
  Speaker 1: Adam Hamilton. We don't know, right? Who are the new
• 2:32:44
  Speaker 1: senators going to be? Are they going to be anti-filibuster?
• 2:32:46
  Speaker 1: Josh Turek. Everybody's so sure, right? And there's really no
• 2:32:53
  Speaker 1: need to get rid of it in the last two
• 2:32:55
  Speaker 1: years of Trump. And I don't know why you would
• 2:32:58
  Speaker 1: do that and tempt fate on that. So I'm, you know,
• 2:33:05
  Speaker 1: Like I said, I could see some changes to the
• 2:33:08
  Speaker 1: filibuster happening before I see a total elimination. Look, you know,
• 2:33:15
  Speaker 1: and you've heard me rant about this. I don't think
• 2:33:19
  Speaker 1: the filibuster is the problem. I think what has destroyed
• 2:33:23
  Speaker 1: what the U.S. Senate has done is destroyed is when
• 2:33:26
  Speaker 1: they got rid of the filibuster for judicial nominees. That
• 2:33:32
  Speaker 1: has destroyed the credibility of the judiciary branch. We now
• 2:33:35
  Speaker 1: have red and blue robes because of that decision. So
• 2:33:41
  Speaker 1: I'm somebody who thinks that what was done with the
• 2:33:46
  Speaker 1: judiciary has only made us more polarized and has only
• 2:33:49
  Speaker 1: made us more distrustful of the judiciary. We'd be a
• 2:33:52
  Speaker 1: lot better off if it took 60 or, frankly, 75 votes.
• 2:33:56
  Speaker 1: It should be 60 votes to confirm federal judges and
• 2:34:00
  Speaker 1: circuit judges, and I think it should be 75 votes
• 2:34:02
  Speaker 1: to confirm a Supreme Court justice. And I promise you,
• 2:34:06
  Speaker 1: you're going to get Supreme Court justices who are not politicians.
• 2:34:10
  Speaker 1: And isn't that what we actually want? It's what Alexander
• 2:34:15
  Speaker 1: Hamilton wanted. It was the argument he made in Federalist,
• 2:34:17
  Speaker 1: I believe, in 78. All right. With that, let's talk
• 2:34:28
  Speaker 1: a little college football. Look, I don't know if we
• 2:34:31
  Speaker 1: can top what happened last week. But here's what I
• 2:34:34
  Speaker 1: do know. whenever you think, um, Oh, this is not
• 2:34:39
  Speaker 1: going to be that good of a week. That's the week,
• 2:34:43
  Speaker 1: even more crazy stuff happens, but I'll start with my, uh, hurricanes.
• 2:34:49
  Speaker 1: First of all, I'll give you a little bit of,
• 2:34:50
  Speaker 1: I know some of you want to keep track of
• 2:34:52
  Speaker 1: my comings and goings when it comes to, uh, college football.
• 2:34:56
  Speaker 1: So last week we, uh, We saw one of our
• 2:35:00
  Speaker 1: children in Miami and saw the Miami-Florida State game. Well,
• 2:35:04
  Speaker 1: this week, we're going to go to Dallas and see
• 2:35:07
  Speaker 1: our other child at an SMU game. And SMU is
• 2:35:11
  Speaker 1: playing Cal. Now, unfortunately, the good folks at the Four
• 2:35:18
  Speaker 1: Letter Network have decided that all SMU games apparently have
• 2:35:22
  Speaker 1: to be at noon Eastern, 11 a.m. Central time. Well,
• 2:35:29
  Speaker 1: guess when the Miami-Pitt game is? The Miami-Pitt game is
• 2:35:35
  Speaker 1: at noon Eastern as well. Pitt travels to Miami. Pat
• 2:35:43
  Speaker 1: Narduzzi has already been whining and complaining that Miami has
• 2:35:47
  Speaker 1: a bigger budget for players than he does. He is
• 2:35:52
  Speaker 1: a serial complainer. You know, look, you're a really good coach.
• 2:35:57
  Speaker 1: You've put together good programs. Why don't you just strap
• 2:36:00
  Speaker 1: it up and, you know, say what you have to
• 2:36:04
  Speaker 1: say on the field and don't behave the way you're behaving.
• 2:36:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just, it's a bad look, the whining
• 2:36:14
  Speaker 1: and complaining. Oh, people try to sign our quarterback. Well,
• 2:36:19
  Speaker 1: go raise more money. None of this is illegal. It
• 2:36:24
  Speaker 1: is all legal. Don't complain that it's not. But anyway,
• 2:36:28
  Speaker 1: the point being, is I'm going to be live watching
• 2:36:32
  Speaker 1: SMU and Cal, and I'm going to be doing this
• 2:36:36
  Speaker 1: while I perhaps have one ear. I don't know if I'm,
• 2:36:40
  Speaker 1: I'm about to confess something that my son might not
• 2:36:42
  Speaker 1: be realized. So my son's high school football games were
• 2:36:47
  Speaker 1: at noon quite a bit. And when he was playing
• 2:36:50
  Speaker 1: high school football, Miami always ended up in the noon
• 2:36:53
  Speaker 1: slot because they were not the number one team in
• 2:36:55
  Speaker 1: the ACC, which, you know, on any given week. So
• 2:36:58
  Speaker 1: they were rarely getting the the 330 or the 730 games.
• 2:37:02
  Speaker 1: They're now getting a lot more of the 330 and
• 2:37:04
  Speaker 1: the 730 games, but Pitt's not a big draw this week.
• 2:37:06
  Speaker 1: So I think that they gave us the nude game,
• 2:37:10
  Speaker 1: which frankly is a bigger, the irony is that I
• 2:37:12
  Speaker 1: think it's harder to play Miami when the sun is
• 2:37:15
  Speaker 1: out in Miami than it is when the sun is down, humidity,
• 2:37:20
  Speaker 1: all that stuff, especially for these boys up north. But, man,
• 2:37:24
  Speaker 1: I've got to literally have one eye on the Miami
• 2:37:26
  Speaker 1: Pitt game. I'm going to be watching SMU Cal, and
• 2:37:29
  Speaker 1: it could be a shootout. or something like that. So anyway, I'm,
• 2:37:34
  Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to seeing my son. I'm looking forward
• 2:37:37
  Speaker 1: to seeing SMU beat Cal. Cal's been a real disappointment.
• 2:37:41
  Speaker 1: I thought they were going to be a real sleeper,
• 2:37:43
  Speaker 1: a sleeper team in the ACC this year, and they
• 2:37:46
  Speaker 1: were not. I think they've messed up the quarterback that
• 2:37:51
  Speaker 1: we all now refer to as initials because none of
• 2:37:53
  Speaker 1: us want to mispronounce his name. But other games, look,
• 2:37:57
  Speaker 1: I think the biggest game of the week is Ole Miss-Texas.
• 2:38:03
  Speaker 1: And it really is a playoff game, I think here,
• 2:38:06
  Speaker 1: probably more so for Texas, believe it or not. I mean, yes,
• 2:38:10
  Speaker 1: Texas has a great win against Ohio State, but now
• 2:38:12
  Speaker 1: they've got two losses. They really shouldn't have won that
• 2:38:16
  Speaker 1: Ohio State game, right? That was kind of Ryan Day
• 2:38:19
  Speaker 1: turtled the team, and that's why Texas, and if Ole Miss,
• 2:38:24
  Speaker 1: you know, Ole Miss only has one loss. We kind
• 2:38:26
  Speaker 1: of forgot about Ole Miss, right? They beat LSU, then
• 2:38:30
  Speaker 1: they go and get swamp stomped by the Gators in Gainesville.
• 2:38:37
  Speaker 1: And then we kind of sort of, you know, The
• 2:38:39
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss story is kind of quietly going, well, they're
• 2:38:41
  Speaker 1: still 5-1. They still got Trinidad Chambliss. I don't know
• 2:38:46
  Speaker 1: how Texas keeps up with Ole Miss. Ole Miss has
• 2:38:48
  Speaker 1: proven they can score on anybody. I know Texas has
• 2:38:51
  Speaker 1: a great defense, but I promise you, I think Ole
• 2:38:53
  Speaker 1: Miss will score more than 24 points against Texas. And
• 2:38:58
  Speaker 1: if Ole Miss scores 24 points, can Texas keep up?
• 2:39:03
  Speaker 1: Either way. Game of the day and most important one
• 2:39:07
  Speaker 1: for SEC playoff implications. It's the primetime game. It's easily
• 2:39:15
  Speaker 1: the best game of the night and the one that
• 2:39:17
  Speaker 1: I think will have the most impact on what we're
• 2:39:20
  Speaker 1: talking about. A few other games on my radar. Indiana
• 2:39:23
  Speaker 1: goes to Michigan, right? This is a chance we're now
• 2:39:27
  Speaker 1: not going to have. Indiana's got to face C.J. Carr's
• 2:39:30
  Speaker 1: little brother, who is another grandchild of Lloyd Carr. He is,
• 2:39:34
  Speaker 1: I guess, the new quarterback, the starting quarterback at Michigan,
• 2:39:37
  Speaker 1: which means Bryce Underwood is going to go into the portal.
• 2:39:40
  Speaker 1: Where does Bryce Underwood go? One of my favorite college
• 2:39:44
  Speaker 1: football gambling podcasts speculates it's going to be Florida State.
• 2:39:48
  Speaker 1: That'd be interesting if they end up with him. I'll
• 2:39:51
  Speaker 1: be curious of that. But either way, Indiana at Michigan.
• 2:39:55
  Speaker 1: Is there a little bit of a hangover for Indiana?
• 2:39:57
  Speaker 1: I think this is I know Indiana lost by literally
• 2:40:01
  Speaker 1: a foot, less than a foot on a foot, if
• 2:40:05
  Speaker 1: you can do that with that. But Indiana's not going
• 2:40:11
  Speaker 1: to score a lot of points. Michigan's not going to
• 2:40:13
  Speaker 1: score a lot of points. It's going to be kind
• 2:40:15
  Speaker 1: of a messy game, I'm guessing, sloppy game. I don't know.
• 2:40:23
  Speaker 1: I mean, I wouldn't want to have to go to
• 2:40:25
  Speaker 1: Michigan after losing a heartbreaker at home to Ohio State.
• 2:40:28
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a big game for Indiana here
• 2:40:32
  Speaker 1: to sort of make sure they don't let Ohio State
• 2:40:35
  Speaker 1: beat them twice. LSU goes to Auburn. I think Auburn, right?
• 2:40:44
  Speaker 1: That's a tough one. You pull the upset and then
• 2:40:46
  Speaker 1: you go home to face LSU. I worry. I'm always–
• 2:40:51
  Speaker 1: I got a lot of family members. Pro Auburn. I
• 2:40:53
  Speaker 1: want to be pro Auburn. I'm a little nervous about
• 2:40:55
  Speaker 1: this one. I don't feel good about it. Sorry, guys.
• 2:40:58
  Speaker 1: I just don't. On that one, just because it feels
• 2:41:01
  Speaker 1: like LSU, they're in, they can't lose mode. They can't lose. And,
• 2:41:06
  Speaker 1: you know, Kiffin with his back against the wall. It's
• 2:41:10
  Speaker 1: not always a team I want to be on the
• 2:41:11
  Speaker 1: other side of. And then the other big sort of
• 2:41:15
  Speaker 1: letdown spot is BYU after their big win over Notre
• 2:41:17
  Speaker 1: Dame has to go to Orlando. So they go from Elevation,
• 2:41:22
  Speaker 1: and cool air to sea level and humid air, although
• 2:41:26
  Speaker 1: not as humid as it normally is. It is October,
• 2:41:28
  Speaker 1: so it's starting to turn a little bit there in Orlando.
• 2:41:38
  Speaker 1: We've seen these teams, they pull a big upset, and
• 2:41:41
  Speaker 1: then literally the next week, lay an egg. We've seen
• 2:41:44
  Speaker 1: it all over the SEC, who's to say this doesn't
• 2:41:46
  Speaker 1: happen to a Big 12 team as well. And in fact,
• 2:41:50
  Speaker 1: Keep an eye on Tennessee having to travel to South Carolina.
• 2:41:53
  Speaker 1: They got their big win over Alabama. They really celebrated
• 2:41:56
  Speaker 1: that big win over Alabama. And now they got to
• 2:41:58
  Speaker 1: go into Columbia, South Carolina. I know what my Vegas
• 2:42:04
  Speaker 1: friends would be doing on this one. That's for sure.
• 2:42:09
  Speaker 1: And then after that, I can't tell you that I've got,
• 2:42:13
  Speaker 1: you know, I may have some interesting financial plays in
• 2:42:18
  Speaker 1: some of these things. And I will be watching at
• 2:42:20
  Speaker 1: Clemson hosting Virginia Tech here. I'm just curious of which
• 2:42:26
  Speaker 1: Clemson team shows up. I think Tech can beat them handily.
• 2:42:31
  Speaker 1: They have the capability. But it's big game James, right?
• 2:42:37
  Speaker 1: So who knows on this front? I just don't know
• 2:42:42
  Speaker 1: if I buy that Clemson can keep up on that front. Uh,
• 2:42:48
  Speaker 1: and all right. I think that's what I got. I
• 2:42:51
  Speaker 1: think that's the best Houston, Utah. It's another rank on rank, uh,
• 2:42:54
  Speaker 1: rank match up there. Um, it's probably a more important
• 2:42:59
  Speaker 1: game for Houston because Utah has got an opportunity to
• 2:43:01
  Speaker 1: play BYU and they can make a college football playoff
• 2:43:04
  Speaker 1: statement by defeating BYU, even if they lose this game.
• 2:43:08
  Speaker 1: But man, Utah is a tough place to play a
• 2:43:10
  Speaker 1: tough place to play. Houston's on the road, but this
• 2:43:13
  Speaker 1: is a pretty important game of the big 12. Um,
• 2:43:16
  Speaker 1: and my own, My own producer's a big Utah Ute. So,
• 2:43:19
  Speaker 1: you know, I give, A, I got to give some respect.
• 2:43:23
  Speaker 1: And B, they deserve, they have earned this respect. And
• 2:43:28
  Speaker 1: then I'll be keeping a small eye on USC traveling
• 2:43:30
  Speaker 1: to Wisconsin. This is two time zones, not three. Can
• 2:43:34
  Speaker 1: USC win a ball game when they travel multiple time zones? Well,
• 2:43:39
  Speaker 1: they can win. The question is, can they ever cover
• 2:43:41
  Speaker 1: a spread when they go more than two time zones
• 2:43:43
  Speaker 1: on this front? But look, USC is going to be
• 2:43:46
  Speaker 1: hosting Ohio State without Julian Sane in a couple of weeks.
• 2:43:50
  Speaker 1: So if they play their cards right and don't lose
• 2:43:52
  Speaker 1: any games before then, then suddenly USC might be able
• 2:43:55
  Speaker 1: to play their way back in to the college football
• 2:43:58
  Speaker 1: playoff conversation. So there you have it. I'm going to
• 2:44:01
  Speaker 1: be having literally an AirPod ear in one game, my
• 2:44:06
  Speaker 1: eyes and half of my attention uh, live and in
• 2:44:10
  Speaker 1: person watching, uh, uh, Kevin Jennings, I hope tear the
• 2:44:15
  Speaker 1: Cal secondary apart. Uh, and, uh, I look forward to
• 2:44:18
  Speaker 1: seeing most importantly, I look forward to seeing my son
• 2:44:21
  Speaker 1: after having a great weekend with my daughter last weekend.
• 2:44:23
  Speaker 1: So with that, uh, enjoy the weekend, uh, appreciate everything, um,
• 2:44:29
  Speaker 1: that everybody's been doing to support all of my efforts
• 2:44:32
  Speaker 1: here on this podcast and some other places we've really, uh,
• 2:44:35
  Speaker 1: seen the increased interest, increased traffic and, uh, It's all
• 2:44:39
  Speaker 1: thanks to you. So thank you very much. And until
• 2:44:42
  Speaker 1: we upload again.