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Supreme Court Backs Birthright Citizenship in Blow to Trump · Balance of Power

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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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  Speaker 2: It's on this last day of the second quarter, thank
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  Speaker 2: you so much. Of course, that also coincides with the
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  Speaker 2: last day of this Supreme Court term. As usual, the
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  Speaker 2: Court saved a number of blockbuster cases for the very
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  Speaker 2: last day and handed those decisions down this morning, including
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  Speaker 2: of course, one of the big ones on birthright citizenship.
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  Speaker 2: With no surprise. President Trump, given it was his executive
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  Speaker 2: order that the Court shut down in a split ruling,
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  Speaker 2: has reacted to on true social calling the decision or
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  Speaker 2: the decision to hoold birthright citizenship too bad for our country,
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  Speaker 2: but he says it could easily be made up for
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  Speaker 2: in Congress through legislation. No long and un wieldly constitutional
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  Speaker 2: amendment is necessary, though I would imagine that is going
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  Speaker 2: to be the subject of much debate in the days
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  Speaker 2: and months and years ahead.
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  Speaker 3: Joe, Yeah, I'm not sure that the leader is ready
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  Speaker 3: to tackle that right now, as we're still trying to
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  Speaker 3: get the housing bills signed, among other issues. He's right, though,
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  Speaker 3: this would be the way to do it is through Congress,
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  Speaker 3: and it's not a path that this administration has taken.
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  Speaker 3: A lot of the political analysis, though, and we'll talk
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  Speaker 3: to Rick and Doug about this later, is that it
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  Speaker 3: was never really even about winning for this president. It
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  Speaker 3: was about seen trying and being caught in the axe.
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  Speaker 3: And he can certainly talk to his base about that.
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  Speaker 4: Well.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I would imagine we're going to continue to
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  Speaker 2: see him do so knowing that even though the court
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  Speaker 2: didn't rule with him on this case in this instance,
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  Speaker 2: they sure gave him a lot of victories over the
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  Speaker 2: course of this term.
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  Speaker 5: That's right.
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  Speaker 3: We've got a coupleer pick through today, not in tariffs
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  Speaker 3: and not in mail in ballots yesterday.
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  Speaker 5: But let's talk about what we learned today.
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  Speaker 3: With Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent has made her way
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  Speaker 3: to the Supreme Court, where she's been the last couple
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  Speaker 3: of days and back now with what was a more
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  Speaker 3: rambunctious crowd a little bit earlier, Tyler's art with the
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  Speaker 3: birthright citizenship case, the reaction that you saw on the
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  Speaker 3: ground there and the opinions from the court when you
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  Speaker 3: listened to arguments that the President himself attended, a lot
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  Speaker 3: of people thought they knew where this was going.
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  Speaker 6: Right, Joe, This decision was widely expected because we got
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  Speaker 6: those signals from the Supreme Court justices that they were
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  Speaker 6: wary of the Trump administration's executive order seeking to restrict
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  Speaker 6: birthright citizenship. Even at the time of the oral arguments,
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  Speaker 6: we saw the Chief Justice John Roberts call the administration's
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  Speaker 6: a legal position quote quirky. So even you know, President
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  Speaker 6: Frum himself alluded to the fact that he didn't think
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  Speaker 6: that this was going to land in his favor. As
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  Speaker 6: you mentioned, once this decision came down, we did hear
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  Speaker 6: an uproar here on the ground of the Supreme Court
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  Speaker 6: because this had some pretty broad reaching implications when you
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  Speaker 6: think about how this really was a central plank of
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  Speaker 6: President Trump's immigration agenda. But ultimately the Supreme Court upheld
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  Speaker 6: that those key five words in the citizenship clause of
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  Speaker 6: the Fourteenth Amendment that if you were born in the
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  Speaker 6: US and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, you are a
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  Speaker 6: US citizen. The Trump administration didn't want that specific provision
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  Speaker 6: to apply so broadly, but the Supreme Court ultimately pushed
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  Speaker 6: back on it and sided with what has been a
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  Speaker 6: long standing legal precedent.
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  Speaker 2: Well, Tyler, when we consider a new president that the
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  Speaker 2: Court is setting as well, let's talk about the campaign
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  Speaker 2: finance oriented case on partisan or ideological lines. They throw
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  Speaker 2: out long standing limits on how much a political party
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  Speaker 2: is able to coordinate with individual candidates over the course
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  Speaker 2: of a campaign. Walk us through the implications of this
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  Speaker 2: ruling potentially as soon as as immediately as we look
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  Speaker 2: to November.
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  Speaker 7: Right.
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  Speaker 6: In fact, Kelly, there has been reporting that the political
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  Speaker 6: parties have actually held back their spending because they were
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  Speaker 6: waiting to see how this Supreme Court case would come down,
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  Speaker 6: because it's going to dictate their strategy going forward, in
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  Speaker 6: particular when it comes to the advertisements that you typically
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  Speaker 6: see on the airwaves. This is considered to be really
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  Speaker 6: monumental for campaign finance going forward. As we look at
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  Speaker 6: to November, I can see Capitol Hill from where I'm
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  Speaker 6: standing across the street from the Supreme Court, and the
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  Speaker 6: control of Congress is really those razor thin margins. Betweens,
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  Speaker 6: every dollar is ultimately going to count towards these parties. Now,
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  Speaker 6: this was the National Republican Senatorial Committee versus the FEC,
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  Speaker 6: the Federal Election Commission, and Republicans had basically argued that
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  Speaker 6: these caps on coordinating between the candidates and the political
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  Speaker 6: committees was unconstitutional because it restricted their free speech because
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  Speaker 6: they weren't able to essentially coordinate on their political messaging.
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  Speaker 8: And the Supreme Court here ruled in their favor.
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  Speaker 6: And the upshot that you need to know is that
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  Speaker 6: under this law, candidates getting more preferential rate when it
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  Speaker 6: comes to TV advertisement slots. But now these political committees
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  Speaker 6: are going to be able to get that preferential rate,
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  Speaker 6: which essentially means that the fundraising dollars are going to
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  Speaker 6: go even further than they did before. And he bid
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  Speaker 6: to influence voters as we head into them at firms.
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  Speaker 2: All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live outside the Supreme Court
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  Speaker 2: on a scorcher in Washington. But an important day as
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  Speaker 2: well as the Court makes history, Thank you so much.
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  Speaker 2: And as we consider what Tyler was getting out there,
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  Speaker 2: the actual financial implications of that. Certainly, if you're a
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  Speaker 2: broadcaster selling advertising slots, this may actually have an impact
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  Speaker 2: for you as you're looking ahead to political spending in November.
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  Speaker 2: But then there's the wider of political considerations as well, because,
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  Speaker 2: as we alluded to, Republicans do have the cash advantage
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  Speaker 2: in this cycle at least. So on that note, we
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  Speaker 2: turn now to our political panel. Rick Davis is with
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  Speaker 2: US Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist and stone Court Capital partner,
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  Speaker 2: alongside Democratic strategist Doug Ferrer, principal at Maywood Strategies, and
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  Speaker 2: former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Lena Kahan. Doug, I'll
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  Speaker 2: come to you on just that gap first and foremost.
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  Speaker 2: The RNC, the NRSC in the House affiliated well had
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  Speaker 2: two hundred and fifty six million dollars in the bank.
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  Speaker 2: That's double the amount that Democrats have at the party
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  Speaker 2: level right now. So how concerned does this make you
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  Speaker 2: as a Democrat to have November.
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  Speaker 4: It's definitely concerning. I mean, the Republican cash advantage was
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  Speaker 4: always there, and now it'll be augmented by this ruling.
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  Speaker 4: You know, I think in this upcoming election there's a
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  Speaker 4: lot of wind at the backs of the Democrats because
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  Speaker 4: of the unpopularity of the president, his policies and his
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  Speaker 4: sort of pronouncements and his repainting of the reflecting full
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  Speaker 4: and all these crazy things he does. So I think
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  Speaker 4: it will be muted by that a little bit. But
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  Speaker 4: in the long term, as we saw with Citizens United,
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  Speaker 4: these sort of opening up of opportunities for Republicans who
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  Speaker 4: are always going to have more cash, to use that
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  Speaker 4: cash more effectively in ads and an other coordination is
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  Speaker 4: going to be a problem for the Democrats. It's also
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  Speaker 4: going to change the democratic strategy. You've got an ascendant
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  Speaker 4: left wing worried about corporate powerried about billionaires, and now
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  Speaker 4: you have an incentive for Democrats running for office to
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  Speaker 4: seek out billionaire patrons and make policy concessions to them
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  Speaker 4: to juice their campaigns. So I think the net effect
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  Speaker 4: on the Democrats immediately is a little bit blunted by
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  Speaker 4: the possible blue wave, but over time it'll change our politics,
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  Speaker 4: frankly for the worst.
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  Speaker 3: Well, no, we don't have a lot of surprises in
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  Speaker 3: this ruling, Rick Davis. But as somebody who helped to
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  Speaker 3: draft McCain finegeld as you've mentioned, and has seen this coming,
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  Speaker 3: I wonder your thoughts on what a campaign manager does
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  Speaker 3: differently in light of this ruling than what he or
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  Speaker 3: she might.
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  Speaker 5: Have done yesterday. What does this mean practically?
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  Speaker 9: Yeah, I think it.
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  Speaker 10: Really goes away with independent expenditures, right. I mean, almost
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  Speaker 10: every federal election had a commensurate independent expenditure outside the party,
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  Speaker 10: independent of the campaign that could raise unlimited amounts of
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  Speaker 10: money and spend it. The downside was that you didn't
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  Speaker 10: get unit rate on your TV advertising.
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  Speaker 9: Sometimes four times more.
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  Speaker 10: Money you had to spend on an ad than the
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  Speaker 10: party committee the campaign committee, which is significant. If you're
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  Speaker 10: spending ten million dollars on TV and the outside group
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  Speaker 10: has send forty million.
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  Speaker 9: It's that's why you see so much money going into
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  Speaker 9: these outside groups.
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  Speaker 10: Now you can rationalize all that and streamline the decision
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  Speaker 10: making so outside groups don't have to actually guess as
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  Speaker 10: to what kind of ads you want up.
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  Speaker 9: There to attack. So it does actually give more control.
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  Speaker 10: Probably back to the party committee and the campaign committee.
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  Speaker 10: That being said, it's an explosion of fundraising at this stage.
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  Speaker 6: Right.
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  Speaker 10: We used to worry about the million dollar donation. Now
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  Speaker 10: we worry about the billion dollar donation. In twenty twenty four,
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  Speaker 10: three hundred billionaires gave over three billion dollars to parties
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  Speaker 10: and to campaigns. It's an extremely huge acceleration.
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  Speaker 9: Of money into politics.
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  Speaker 10: And all you got to do is look around and say, hey,
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  Speaker 10: how is that making it better?
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  Speaker 9: No, it's making it worse. At some point all of that.
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  Speaker 10: Will actually will have another round reform, but until then,
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  Speaker 10: this is the new reality.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's just incredible to consider. I was going to
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  Speaker 2: ask you, Doug, if this somehow ignites a fundraising fire
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  Speaker 2: under wealthy democrats, if you will, if they know this
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  Speaker 2: outcome here, knowing that there was the structural gap in
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  Speaker 2: terms of the fundraising capabilities of either party, would you
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  Speaker 2: be surprised to see more billion dollar donations from high
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  Speaker 2: profile democrats.
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  Speaker 4: It's an interesting question because strategically you're right that the
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  Speaker 4: incentive is there. But if you look around at what
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  Speaker 4: happened in New York last week and what may happen
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  Speaker 4: in Colorado and in Michigan, what you have is an
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  Speaker 4: ascendant group of Democrats who have very very strong views
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  Speaker 4: about the rising oligarchy in this country, who are very
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  Speaker 4: concerned about monopolies, who are hoping to have much more
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  Speaker 4: populist economic policies, running into this incentive to raise money
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  Speaker 4: from a handful of billionaires. So the parties at war
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  Speaker 4: with itself over this particular dynamic, and in some ways,
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  Speaker 4: getting a billion dollar donation from a Democratic billionaire in
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  Speaker 4: your campaign may actually harm you with some of the
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  Speaker 4: base who believe, having watched what happened with the Trump administration,
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  Speaker 4: that the billionaires are the ones who are really in charge.
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  Speaker 4: So I think you'll see a bit of both, but
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  Speaker 4: there'll be big pushback from within the party for candidates
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  Speaker 4: seeking patrons the same way that President Trump has a
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  Speaker 4: patron in Elon Musk, for example.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, wow, Rick, I want to turn to the birthright
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  Speaker 3: citizenship case court upholding the fourteenth Amendment. But this was
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  Speaker 3: not a unanimous ruling. What do you make of what
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  Speaker 3: the court said?
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  Speaker 10: Yeah, it's kind of interesting to me. I'm surprised it
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  Speaker 10: wasn't the unanimous ruling. I didn't think the reading of
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  Speaker 10: the fourteenth Amendment was really that subjective.
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  Speaker 9: The reality is there's politics that play at the.
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  Speaker 10: Spring Court, and I think that the ultimate decision wound
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  Speaker 10: up in the right place. But the fact that you
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  Speaker 10: had three justices to bend themselves into a pretzel to
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  Speaker 10: find an argument to rely on a no vote really
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  Speaker 10: shows you the dynamic that did play inside the court.
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  Speaker 10: So look, at the end of the day, we'll remember
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  Speaker 10: this only as a victory for the Fourteenth Amendment.
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  Speaker 9: And who knows. There's all kinds of rumors about retirement.
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  Speaker 10: I think they're just rumors, but maybe those could actually
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  Speaker 10: ignite a really interesting legacy issue when it comes to
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  Speaker 10: what happens in the last two years of the Trump
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  Speaker 10: presidency when it comes to the Supreme Court.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, Justice Samuel Alito not retiring. That story was retracted
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  Speaker 2: by NPR. But to Rick's point, we very well could
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  Speaker 2: see that that's always a question as we consider a
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  Speaker 2: majority and a president and who may want the.
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  Speaker 5: Power to the hilly yesterday.
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  Speaker 2: Well, yeah, and we all remember RBG in particular, so
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  Speaker 2: the kind of succession question on the court. Aside, Doug,
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  Speaker 2: I would love for you towey in on the birthright
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  Speaker 2: citizenship issue as well, and the president's call specifically for
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  Speaker 2: Congress to address this now to be able to pass
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  Speaker 2: a law. He does have Republican majorities in both the
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  Speaker 2: House and Senate, But is that a politically appetizing endeavor
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  Speaker 2: ahead of the midterms even after them?
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  Speaker 4: Probably not, And I'm sure Rick would agree with this.
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  Speaker 4: But you know, if you're betting on Congress to do something,
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  Speaker 4: you're probably going to lose your money. I think you know, listen,
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  Speaker 4: I didn't go to law school. I'm not smart enough,
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  Speaker 4: but I just read Section one of the fourteenth Amendment
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  Speaker 4: and it said all persons naturalized in the US are
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  Speaker 4: citizens of the United States. So I don't know how
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  Speaker 4: you can wrap yourself around the axle to figure out
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  Speaker 4: a way to say that this isn't clear and plainly
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  Speaker 4: obvious what they intended to do here. And I think
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  Speaker 4: that's the politics at play that Rick talked about on
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  Speaker 4: the Court. And that's a huge hug problem because the
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  Speaker 4: Supreme Court has shown time and time again that they
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  Speaker 4: are willing to undermine the most democratically contested branch of government,
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  Speaker 4: which is Congress. And we're talking about nine unelected people
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  Speaker 4: who really have no responsibility to the voters. And so
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  Speaker 4: I'm very concerned about the credibility of this court following
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  Speaker 4: all of these rulings, but in particular this one. And
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  Speaker 4: so it'll be something to watch, especially if Alito or
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  Speaker 4: someone else retires.
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  Speaker 3: Where this goes pretty interesting to see Justice Breck having
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  Speaker 3: a concur and dissent. I didn't know you could skin
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  Speaker 3: the cat quite like this, Rick. He writes, Congress could,
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  Speaker 3: consistent with the Fourteenth Amendment, amanda or otherwise, that act
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  Speaker 3: new legislation establishing exemptions to birthright citizenship for children born
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  Speaker 3: to foreign citizens unlawfully or temporarily in the country, but
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  Speaker 3: Congress has not yet done so.
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  Speaker 5: So are we done here?
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  Speaker 9: Yeah? I think we're done here.
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  Speaker 10: I mean, I'm especially entertained by the president's admonition of
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  Speaker 10: Congress to act.
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  Speaker 9: Right away when he's told them you can't.
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  Speaker 11: Do anything until the Safe Act past. He told him,
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  Speaker 11: how's that legislation? Why did they just sign that and
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  Speaker 11: get home with it? But now we're going to do
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  Speaker 11: a constitutional amendment. Yeah, good luck with that, buddy. It's
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  Speaker 11: really kind of a mess in Washington.
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  Speaker 10: And that's why in the past, before air conditioning, they'd
• 14:25
  Speaker 10: let everybody.
• 14:25
  Speaker 9: Go home and not try to late sleep.
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  Speaker 11: So I think maybe they pretend that there's no air
• 14:32
  Speaker 11: to say, all go home for a.
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  Speaker 9: While and cool off.
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  Speaker 5: There's some wisdom there at Rick Davis.
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  Speaker 3: I'm still waiting for someone to suggest that it becomes
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  Speaker 3: part of reconciliation. Three point zero. Rick Davis and Doug Farroh.
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  Speaker 3: Great to have you both and our great panel coming up.
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  Speaker 3: As Kaylee mentioned an important conversation with Rebecca Kelly Slaughter,
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  Speaker 3: the namesake yes of the Slaughter case that the Supreme
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: Court ruled on yesterday, She's with us straight ahead here,
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  Speaker 3: stay with.
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  Speaker 5: Us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming
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  Speaker 5: up after this.
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  Speaker 3: We try to distill everything that we have heard from
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: a Supreme Court, not just today but yesterday. It's been
• 15:26
  Speaker 3: two doozies in a row here with birthright citizenship in
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: the four today and a President of the United States
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: taking to truth Social to talk about this ruling, knowing
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: that the Supreme Court, while divided, upheld the fourteenth Amendment.
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: The presidents saying it's too bad for our country, but
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: we can easily make it up in Congress through legislation
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: with the support of the President. He says that has
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: now been determined during this process, no long and unwieldy
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: constitutional amendment is necessary. Congress should start today to work
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: on ending expensive and unfair to our country birthright citizenship.
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: I think we've established this hour that that's probably unlikely,
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  Speaker 3: certainly in this session of Congress, for lawmakers to get
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  Speaker 3: their arms around such a massive issue. And so we
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  Speaker 3: start our conversation ahead of our talk with Rebecca Kelly Slaughter,
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  Speaker 3: who of course is the namesake of one of the
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  Speaker 3: most important with the President says is the most important
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  Speaker 3: case of this term, with his ability and power to
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  Speaker 3: hire and fire. Eric Larson is Bloomberg News legal reporter
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  Speaker 3: has been watching all this perch from his perch in
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  Speaker 3: New York. It's great to have you back, Eric. If
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  Speaker 3: we can start with the fourteenth Amendment here, you could
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  Speaker 3: argue that this or the tariff ruling, or probably the
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  Speaker 3: most important for this term the Supreme Court. Many are surprised, however,
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  Speaker 3: that birthright did not bring a unanimous ruling.
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  Speaker 5: What are you looking at today?
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  Speaker 12: Well, you know, I hadn't heard from too many experts
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  Speaker 12: saying that they were predicting a unanimous ruling. What we
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  Speaker 12: did here was predictions about what we got, which was six'
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  Speaker 12: to three, decision which obviously is not What trump. Wanted
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  Speaker 12: he wanted those two, conservatives there are the three other
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  Speaker 12: conservatives to rule against birthright. Citizenship but these justices asked
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  Speaker 12: pretty hard questions during these oral, arguments and this is
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  Speaker 12: kind of what we were. Expecting The Fourteenth, amendment the
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  Speaker 12: citizenship claus to it has been challenged, before but it's
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  Speaker 12: been over one hundred and twenty years that this precedent
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  Speaker 12: has been in. Place And Chief Justice John roberts wrote
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  Speaker 12: for the majority that this case was not going to
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  Speaker 12: overturn that, president that there were no arguments had been
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  Speaker 12: presented to justify doing.
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  Speaker 2: That, well so president obviously was not overturned in this.
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  Speaker 2: Case it was though in the case, yesterday The slaughter,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: case the ninety one year, president The humphreys executive executor
• 17:50
  Speaker 2: rule now effectively out the. Window, eric how should we
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: consider the long term implications of what this actually means
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: for presidential power in acies that have operated at least
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: to this point.
• 18:02
  Speaker 12: Independently, yeah it's a really good point about, that That
• 18:05
  Speaker 12: humphreys executor president being. Overturned it was another old. One
• 18:09
  Speaker 12: it shows that the conservative majority on This court doesn't
• 18:12
  Speaker 12: shy away from overturning precedents and expanding presidential.
• 18:15
  Speaker 5: POWER i think in the.
• 18:17
  Speaker 12: Case of The slaughter, case they have this was something
• 18:21
  Speaker 12: that That republicans And conservatives have been trying to do
• 18:24
  Speaker 12: for a long time to get rid of this. PRESIDENT
• 18:27
  Speaker 12: i think arguably what we would see here is that
• 18:30
  Speaker 12: that presidents of starting With, trump will now be able
• 18:34
  Speaker 12: to have a firmer you, know control over the, ideology
• 18:38
  Speaker 12: of the political ideology of all of these dozens of regulatory.
• 18:43
  Speaker 12: AGENCIES i think it's too early to know, exactly you,
• 18:46
  Speaker 12: know how that will pan, out what that will mean for,
• 18:48
  Speaker 12: sure but or even if every future president will take
• 18:52
  Speaker 12: advantage of, that some may of course want to have
• 18:55
  Speaker 12: some bipartisan cooperation in the in these. Agencies all.
• 19:00
  Speaker 2: Right Eric, Larsen Bloomberg News legal, reporter joining us From New,
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: York thank you so much and joining us now for
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: more on The slaughter case, specifically is its, Namesake Rebecca Kelly,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: slaughter the FIRED ftc commissioner By President, trump who of
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: course fought that and took it all the way to
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: The Supreme, court a challenge that of course ended with this. Ruling,
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: Yesterday welcome back To BLOOMBERG tv And Radio. Commissioner when
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: we Consider President trump's words about your case and The court's,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: ruling he called it the biggest and most consequential decision
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: issued by The, court which he says gives tremendous additional
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: power back to the. Presidency is that the right.
• 19:41
  Speaker 7: Characterization, YES i think that's exactly the right, characterization and
• 19:46
  Speaker 7: it's exactly WHY i think the ruling is so. Disturbing
• 19:49
  Speaker 7: it is a massive transfer of power From congress to the,
• 19:54
  Speaker 7: president and it's a transfer that transforms these agencies That
• 19:58
  Speaker 7: congress set up to work for and be accountable to
• 20:02
  Speaker 7: the people into instruments of the powerful and of the.
• 20:06
  Speaker 3: Executive, well kind of interesting to hear you agree With
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: Donald trump in a live. Conversation, rebecca thank you for
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: coming back to talk to us here On. Bloomberg what's
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: the result of This the door keeps swinging every four
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: to eight. Years it's not just the administration that, changes
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: but the entire administrative.
• 20:26
  Speaker 5: State.
• 20:28
  Speaker 8: YEAH i think that's exactly.
• 20:29
  Speaker 7: Right AND i think it's important to go back to
• 20:31
  Speaker 7: the history and understand that this is not a partisan,
• 20:35
  Speaker 7: issue and it certainly shouldn't be a partisan. Issue the
• 20:38
  Speaker 7: case that was overturned Yesterday humphrey's executor was the case
• 20:42
  Speaker 7: of a, conservative pro Business republican WHO fdr tried to
• 20:47
  Speaker 7: fire from THE ftc Because Commissioner humphrey was running around
• 20:51
  Speaker 7: calling The New deal socialist AND fdr didn't like, that
• 20:55
  Speaker 7: and so the, precedent the ninety one year old unanimous,
• 20:59
  Speaker 7: precedent actually originally protected a pro Business republican's ability to
• 21:04
  Speaker 7: provide transparency and accountability at THE. Ftc the other WAY
• 21:09
  Speaker 7: i think about, it it's not about whether a president
• 21:12
  Speaker 7: can set policy or pick people to work at. AGENCIES
• 21:16
  Speaker 7: i think about it a little bit like corporate. Boards
• 21:19
  Speaker 7: we have a requirement that publicly traded companies have independent
• 21:22
  Speaker 7: boards of, directors not so that THE ceo can't be in,
• 21:25
  Speaker 7: charge but the decisions that THE ceo makes are really
• 21:29
  Speaker 7: in the best interests of the shareholders of the company
• 21:32
  Speaker 7: and not just a way to do favors for his
• 21:34
  Speaker 7: pals or enrich. Himself these boards and, commissions like THE
• 21:38
  Speaker 7: ftc or The Federal Communications, commission were set up By
• 21:42
  Speaker 7: congress with a similar structure to make sure that their
• 21:45
  Speaker 7: decisions were in the best interests of the shareholders of
• 21:48
  Speaker 7: The american, government the, taxpayers and not just to benefit the.
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: Executive, well when we consider the setup of these independent,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: commissioners there is ually a partisan, split if you, Will
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: you can't have a clean tie on a lot of
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: these boards as you put, Them. Rebecca so what would
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: be lost if a president is able to effectively just
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: get rid of anyone who was appointed by a predecessor
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: of a different? Party is it not the case that
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: usually you would still see things swing the way the
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: administration wants it to swing given the majority that would
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: be there on the.
• 22:24
  Speaker 8: Commission, YEAH i think it has.
• 22:26
  Speaker 7: Lost it's a lot of the quality of the debate
• 22:28
  Speaker 7: and the discussion and the work that the agency. PRODUCES
• 22:31
  Speaker 7: i started at THE ftc as A trump, appointee as
• 22:34
  Speaker 7: a minority commissioner in the First trump, ADMINISTRATION i was
• 22:38
  Speaker 7: in the majority during The biden administration back to the.
• 22:41
  Speaker 7: Minority So i've seen all sides of, it and WHAT
• 22:44
  Speaker 7: i learned from experience is that there is enormous benefit
• 22:48
  Speaker 7: to the agency and to the public from having a
• 22:51
  Speaker 7: leadership structure that requires you to engage with people from
• 22:55
  Speaker 7: different political, perspectives understand their point of, view try to find.
• 23:00
  Speaker 7: Consensus there's an incentive to find consensus where you, can
• 23:03
  Speaker 7: so that decisions will have darability and stability throughout, administrations
• 23:08
  Speaker 7: and then to air for the public respectful disagreements when
• 23:11
  Speaker 7: you can't reach that, consensus and that quality of debate
• 23:15
  Speaker 7: and discussion and consideration is absolutely lost if we move
• 23:19
  Speaker 7: to agencies that are just going to swing wildly one
• 23:22
  Speaker 7: way or the. Other AND i think the downstream consequences
• 23:26
  Speaker 7: are not just at the leadership level of these, agencies
• 23:30
  Speaker 7: but if the principle that the court articulated in my case,
• 23:34
  Speaker 7: holds it also decimates the civil, service for, example or
• 23:39
  Speaker 7: any of the sort of career expertise that we have
• 23:42
  Speaker 7: over centuries work to build up in our government so
• 23:45
  Speaker 7: that it can really do its best work on behalf
• 23:47
  Speaker 7: of The american.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: People of, course your Case rebecca was delivered in its
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: decision alongside a separate and more narrow ruling On Lisa
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: cook's case on The Federal. RESERVE i don't want to turn.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: YOU i went to a legal. Analyst we're not going
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: to run through all the decisions. Here but knowing that
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: this is about her potential hiring or, Firing i'm wondering
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: what you thought of this very narrow ruling that to
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: the extent THAT i read it here still allows for
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: her potential firing if the administration can prove allegations of mortgage.
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: Fraud did they move the needle on this case or?
• 24:21
  Speaker 6: Not?
• 24:22
  Speaker 7: WELL i think it is actually a really important. Distinction
• 24:25
  Speaker 7: The president attempted to fire, me or successfully now fired
• 24:29
  Speaker 7: me for no cause at, all just at, well he tried.
• 24:32
  Speaker 8: To Fire Lisa cook for a.
• 24:34
  Speaker 7: CAUSE i think it is a pretty clearly pretextual. Cause
• 24:38
  Speaker 7: but that is consistent with what the statute that enabled
• 24:41
  Speaker 7: The Federal reserve in nineteen thirteen and the statute that
• 24:44
  Speaker 7: enabled THE ftc in nineteen fourteen. Allow it allows commissioners
• 24:48
  Speaker 7: to be removed for. Cause and so what The Supreme
• 24:51
  Speaker 7: court has done has, said, yes that rule is valid
• 24:55
  Speaker 7: and applies to The, fed but it doesn't apply to
• 24:58
  Speaker 7: THE ftc or the other independent, agencies for reasons that
• 25:04
  Speaker 7: are very difficult for me to pin down in any
• 25:08
  Speaker 7: kind of intellectually coherent. MANNER i think it's important to
• 25:11
  Speaker 7: recognize that there were only two justices who took the
• 25:15
  Speaker 7: position THAT i could be fired And Lisa cook could not.
• 25:20
  Speaker 7: Be it is The Chief justice And Justice, kavanaugh the
• 25:23
  Speaker 7: other conservative, justice said all of us could be, fired
• 25:27
  Speaker 7: and the liberal justices said none but the two who switched.
• 25:33
  Speaker 7: POSITIONS i find those decisions very difficult to reconcile from
• 25:37
  Speaker 7: any sort of intelligible constitutional law. PRINCIPLE i think they're
• 25:42
  Speaker 7: pretty more easily understood as sort of outcome. Oriented we
• 25:46
  Speaker 7: want to protect THE fed because we're worried about its
• 25:48
  Speaker 7: effect on the, Economy but for the agencies that are
• 25:50
  Speaker 7: supposed to be watchdogs for The american consumer and honest,
• 25:55
  Speaker 7: businesses we're not so worried about.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: It we're almost out of, Time, rebecca less than a minute.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Left we obviously know what This republican president has wanted
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: to be able to do in terms of exercising power
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: to get rid of people that he doesn't want in these.
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Positions what would your advice be if A democrat is
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: in The White house, next should they take advantage of?
• 26:14
  Speaker 7: It, well, LISTEN i think the first thing that needs
• 26:17
  Speaker 7: to happen is That congress needs to reassert its authority
• 26:20
  Speaker 7: and its constitutional responsibility to check an out of control.
• 26:25
  Speaker 7: Executive and that means, Oversight that means using the power
• 26:29
  Speaker 7: of the purse that means using its own role in
• 26:31
  Speaker 7: the nominations, process AND i think that means electing members
• 26:35
  Speaker 7: Of congress from both parties who are willing to do,
• 26:38
  Speaker 7: that and that is the first step to getting the
• 26:41
  Speaker 7: system back on.
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: Track she's a former commissioner on THE ftc and central
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: to our conversations these past forty eight. Hours, rebecca it's
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: great to have you. Back we thank you for joining us.
• 26:51
  Speaker 3: Here as always On, bloomberg stay with.
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: Us On balance Of. Power we'll have much more coming
• 26:56
  Speaker 5: up after.
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: This you're listening to The Bloomberg balance Of power podcasts
• 27:03
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• 27:06
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• 27:10
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• 27:13
  Speaker 1: Flagship New york. Station just Say alexa Play bloomberg eleven
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: Thirty stocks.
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: Up As charlie, mentioned to end the second, quarter the
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: best quarter we've seen FOR us equity benchmarks going back
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: to twenty twenty when we were coming out of THE covid.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: Pandemic pretty remarkable to consider that in the run we've
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: seen in certain stocks in particular Like semiconductors heading for
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: a record quarter despite all the volatility we've. Seen we've
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: seen a lot of volatility as well in other areas
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: of the. Market, oil As charlie, mentioned is lower. Today
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: we're back below seventy dollars a barrel ON wti as
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: we look for progress in, talks although they're indirect talks
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: today between THE us And iran In cutter and the
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: question as to whether or not that will mean oil
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: prices continue their. Declines we Heard President trump talk about
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: that in the office, yesterday going to.
• 28:01
  Speaker 9: GUITAR i think they've already left.
• 28:03
  Speaker 11: Her they're just about getting ready to.
• 28:04
  Speaker 9: Leave so we'll see how that. Goes but we're doing
• 28:06
  Speaker 9: very well on that.
• 28:07
  Speaker 10: Front but the meeting In doha is going to be.
• 28:14
  Speaker 5: Perhaps, important perhaps. Not let's get to it With Jeff.
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: Mason Bloomberg White house correspondent joins us now from The
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: north lawna The White house as we wait for some
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: news on this round of talks. Indirect, jeff is how
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: they're being, Described what, Then Ore kushner And witkoff doing In?
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: Doha aron, says it's in, town but not at the.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: Table who are these two gentlemen talking to if you.
• 28:37
  Speaker 13: Just played perhaps, important perhaps?
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: Not how do you interpret.
• 28:41
  Speaker 4: THAT i don't.
• 28:42
  Speaker 13: Know it sounds like for now, anyway The president and
• 28:46
  Speaker 13: the administration are happy that any kind of talks are going.
• 28:49
  Speaker 13: On this is part of what was laid out in
• 28:51
  Speaker 13: The memorandum Of understanding to stop the. War it's sixty
• 28:57
  Speaker 13: days of negotiations on the nuclear. Program your question is,
• 29:00
  Speaker 13: good what Are witkoff And Jared kushner specifically, doing certainly
• 29:06
  Speaker 13: overseeing the technical level talks that could include everything from
• 29:11
  Speaker 13: additional details on the strait of horror moves to the
• 29:14
  Speaker 13: nitty gritty on the nuclear, program WHICH i might remind
• 29:17
  Speaker 13: our listeners and, viewers was the reason that The president
• 29:20
  Speaker 13: And israel went into this war in the first.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: Place, well, yes the nuclear program was what they initially
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: wanted to, Address. Jeff pretty, quickly of, course they were
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: chased with the, challenge faced with the challenge of trying
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: to reopen the straight of horror, moves Which schamemorandum Of
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: understanding was supposed to. Do but obviously that has been
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: the subject of much contention in the day since it was.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: Signed what is the status right now in the street
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: and does What iran is saying about it matched with
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: what The White house is telling you and everyone, Else,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: WELL i.
• 29:50
  Speaker 13: Think that's a good question. Too, certainly The president has
• 29:53
  Speaker 13: said repeatedly that he does not want there to be
• 29:56
  Speaker 13: any sort of a fine system By iran or other
• 29:59
  Speaker 13: countries for that, matter that would tax or tariff or
• 30:03
  Speaker 13: put any kind of levees on ships going through The.
• 30:06
  Speaker 13: Strait but that has been one of his biggest political
• 30:09
  Speaker 13: and economic, challenges is essentially putting the genie back in
• 30:13
  Speaker 13: the bottle that came as a result of this. War
• 30:16
  Speaker 13: and by THAT i Mean iran was not controlling the
• 30:19
  Speaker 13: ship that were passaging through the waterway before this. War
• 30:24
  Speaker 13: then they learned something that they must have known all
• 30:27
  Speaker 13: of these, years which is that they can and that's
• 30:30
  Speaker 13: what they've shown since the war came. Out and that
• 30:33
  Speaker 13: is exactly what the two sides are negotiating over right.
• 30:36
  Speaker 13: Now you ask what is the exact. STATUS i don't
• 30:38
  Speaker 13: have an update on that other than to just remind
• 30:41
  Speaker 13: us all that over the weekend there were additional tax
• 30:44
  Speaker 13: attacks between the two. Sides so this ceasefire and the
• 30:48
  Speaker 13: state of The strait as it, were are all very.
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: Fragile wa will there be a third round of? Talks
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: if we can refer to these in that. FASHION i
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: don't know if they're all, Equal, jeff but it took
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: us some time following the first negotiations With jdvans to
• 31:05
  Speaker 3: learn if there would be a second round where and
• 31:08
  Speaker 3: when we're still trying to qualify that. Today will there
• 31:11
  Speaker 3: be at some point a TikTok or a more predictable
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: path for, negotiations.
• 31:17
  Speaker 13: You know if past his, Prologue, JOE i think it's
• 31:20
  Speaker 13: hard to say that there's going to be anything predictable
• 31:22
  Speaker 13: related to these talks or this. Conflict but the MoU
• 31:26
  Speaker 13: as we were discussing does lay out this time, period
• 31:29
  Speaker 13: and that raises another question THAT i would just, add
• 31:32
  Speaker 13: which is will they have a deal to a broader
• 31:36
  Speaker 13: peace deal on the nuclear program on the straight at
• 31:39
  Speaker 13: the end of that sixty day. Period to get back
• 31:41
  Speaker 13: to your, question the only way to do that is
• 31:43
  Speaker 13: to continue talking and then to come up with some
• 31:46
  Speaker 13: sort of agreement that both sides agree. To and the
• 31:48
  Speaker 13: timing of that is not uninteresting from a political, perspective
• 31:52
  Speaker 13: because if it's, Successful President trump would have something to
• 31:56
  Speaker 13: flag when he goes out on the campaign trail this
• 31:59
  Speaker 13: fall ahead of the. Midterm if it is not, successful
• 32:01
  Speaker 13: then it will no doubt be another albatross over his
• 32:04
  Speaker 13: neck as he tries to make the case For republicans
• 32:07
  Speaker 13: to maintain control In.
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: Congress let us know what you're, Hearing, jeff as Always
• 32:11
  Speaker 3: Jeff mason with a slive from The White, house and
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: with gas prices in, mind we can give you the
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: latest here at three dollars and eighty four cents the
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: national average according To TRIPLE. A but that is not
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: low enough according to The President, kayley who is back
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: out on truth social once again last, evening ACCUSING i
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: guess refiners presumably of.
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: Gouging, yeah he has suggested previously that it's the big oil.
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: Companies he's Named exon And chevron and said that they
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: aren't lowering prices at the pump.
• 32:40
  Speaker 8: Enough of, course it doesn't actually work like.
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: That with retail gas, Stations but The president has maintained
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: two dollars and fifty cents on average for a gallon
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: of gas is what he thinks is commensurate with what
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: is currently happening in the street and where crude prices have.
• 32:52
  Speaker 2: Gone so let's ask an energy and geopolitics expert about.
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: That Michelle brohart is back WITH, us head Of police
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: and Geopolitical risk At. Kepler welcome, Back michelle To BLOOMBERG
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: tv And. Radio it is true that we have seen
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: oil prices come. Down AS i, mentioned we're below seventy
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: dollars a barrel ON wti once, again south of seventy
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: three dollars On. Brent how quickly in terms of pace and,
• 33:18
  Speaker 2: trajectory could we see that reaching levels that would bring
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: gasoline down to something like two point fifty a gallon once?
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: Again is there any path to that being?
• 33:27
  Speaker 8: Realistic you, Know, kaylee thanks for having me.
• 33:31
  Speaker 14: Again and it's really difficult to get to that, price
• 33:35
  Speaker 14: especially because we need all of the refineries in The
• 33:38
  Speaker 14: Middle east to start exporting. Gasoline we drew down a
• 33:41
  Speaker 14: significant amount of gasoline on the water as well.
• 33:43
  Speaker 8: As jet fuel and, diesel and so product prices remain really.
• 33:47
  Speaker 14: High This, statistically the gasoline prices as a percentage Of
• 33:52
  Speaker 14: brent are the highest that we've ever seen.
• 33:55
  Speaker 8: THEM i think that's, true maybe around the.
• 33:58
  Speaker 14: Highs, certainly cracks relative to crude are as high as
• 34:02
  Speaker 14: they were in twenty twenty two during The rush Of Ukraine.
• 34:05
  Speaker 14: War and what we really need to see is refining
• 34:08
  Speaker 14: capacity coming back online in The Middle, east exports of products,
• 34:12
  Speaker 14: resuming because it doesn't matter how much crude you, have
• 34:15
  Speaker 14: you need to.
• 34:15
  Speaker 8: Refine it to make.
• 34:16
  Speaker 14: Gasoline and last night's upset of the refinery In pennsylvania
• 34:21
  Speaker 14: certainly doesn't help the gasoline situation in The.
• 34:23
  Speaker 8: Northeast and so.
• 34:24
  Speaker 14: Gasoline prices are going to continue to remain high as
• 34:27
  Speaker 14: demand remains high and production just continues to be lagging
• 34:32
  Speaker 14: the demand.
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: Response so does The president not display knowledge of how this,
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: Works knowing that there's gas already in the ground paid
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: for at higher, prices knowing that integrated oil companies don't
• 34:46
  Speaker 3: set the price he's referring, To retailers in this case
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: must quickly react to this statement and do what they
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: know is. Right are we going to see maybe he
• 34:54
  Speaker 3: believes pressure is in fact potentially effective. Here could we
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: see retailers and refiners cut some short term deals here
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: to target two dollars and fifty?
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: Cents or is that simply not? Realistic you?
• 35:08
  Speaker 14: Know the only thing that would be even remotely possible
• 35:11
  Speaker 14: to get gasoline prices down would be to implement some
• 35:16
  Speaker 14: sort of gasoline export restrictions out of THE. US i find,
• 35:20
  Speaker 14: AGAIN i find that UNLIKELY i think we've talked about it,
• 35:22
  Speaker 14: before and it certainly has been a topic of conversation
• 35:26
  Speaker 14: since the war, began that export controls out of THE
• 35:30
  Speaker 14: us are very difficult to. Implement it certainly is possible
• 35:35
  Speaker 14: constraining gasoline inside of THE us will bring down prices
• 35:39
  Speaker 14: maybe in The midwest and Around, texas but still The
• 35:42
  Speaker 14: northeast is going to remain relatively high until we can
• 35:45
  Speaker 14: get tankers moving that gasoline to The. Northeast so it
• 35:49
  Speaker 14: is a Difficult it is. Difficult, obviously we all know
• 35:52
  Speaker 14: that gasoline is not. Control gasoline prices are not controlled
• 35:55
  Speaker 14: by the, majors but it's controlled by the, market which
• 35:59
  Speaker 14: is the market that we. Have we of course gasoline
• 36:02
  Speaker 14: prices are. High you can have refiners switching from making
• 36:05
  Speaker 14: jet fuel and diesel to, gasoline but then you're going
• 36:07
  Speaker 14: to have even higher jet fuel and diesel, prices which
• 36:10
  Speaker 14: we already have really high prices. There what we really
• 36:12
  Speaker 14: need are the refineries in The Middle east restarting their
• 36:15
  Speaker 14: refineries and being able to export their product out of
• 36:19
  Speaker 14: the straight up.
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: Promost, well so let's talk about that export capability for
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: These Middle eastern. Countries, michelle and whether or not they're
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: going to be able to do so freely without.
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: Paying tolls To iran Or.
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: Ohman ron consistently suggests that there are going to be
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: fees or whatever you want to call them associated with
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: the administration of The street OF. Formus what realistically will
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: that mean for the global energy market if they are
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: able to implement, it knowing that THE us says that's
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: a non.
• 36:45
  Speaker 14: Starter you, know, fee the new fee structure that has
• 36:50
  Speaker 14: been at your previous guest said let the genie out
• 36:53
  Speaker 14: of the, bottle and.
• 36:54
  Speaker 8: That is exactly what has.
• 36:55
  Speaker 14: Happened and it's very very hard to put that genie
• 36:58
  Speaker 14: back into the, bottle and not just With iran And.
• 37:00
  Speaker 14: Oman it's going to raise prices obviously to get that.
• 37:04
  Speaker 14: Out and obviously The saudis and The amorats have already
• 37:06
  Speaker 14: talked about creating pipelines that are.
• 37:08
  Speaker 8: Going to move product and crude away from The strait Of.
• 37:12
  Speaker 14: Hormones so there is going to be some things that
• 37:15
  Speaker 14: are going to logistically change inside of The. Gulf BUT
• 37:18
  Speaker 14: i think the bigger question is is what do tolls
• 37:21
  Speaker 14: mean for other, straits The straight Jib, altar The strait Of.
• 37:24
  Speaker 14: Malacca right, like once you introduce that you have control
• 37:29
  Speaker 14: over these natural straits and that it can be really
• 37:31
  Speaker 14: be a revenue stream that takes on a whole new
• 37:34
  Speaker 14: meaning for some of these.
• 37:35
  Speaker 8: Countries Like morocco And.
• 37:37
  Speaker 14: Spain for, Example morocco could receive fees for ships going.
• 37:41
  Speaker 8: Through The strait Of.
• 37:42
  Speaker 14: Gibulture that changes What europe looks. Like SO i think
• 37:44
  Speaker 14: that it's so much. More the fee structure is so
• 37:47
  Speaker 14: much more than Just iran And. Oman it is applicable
• 37:51
  Speaker 14: to many mini straits in the world that currently you
• 37:53
  Speaker 14: can pass through that are.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: Free, wow that's terrifying the idea of a new global tolling.
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: Regime in the, Meantime, michelle we heard that we were
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: on the precipice repeatedly of physical. Shortages you mentioned jet
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: fuels start right there In, europe in THE, uk In.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Asia was that about to happen or did we dodge
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: a bullet?
• 38:15
  Speaker 8: Somehow you, know it's such a great.
• 38:18
  Speaker 14: Question at the very beginning of this, WAR i created
• 38:23
  Speaker 14: this war.
• 38:24
  Speaker 8: Endurance, model like how long can the world?
• 38:26
  Speaker 14: Last and WHAT i, found of, course which we have
• 38:29
  Speaker 14: found over, time is that some countries just ran out of,
• 38:32
  Speaker 14: fuel right Like East africa ran out of.
• 38:35
  Speaker 8: Fuel some of The asian countries just ran out.
• 38:37
  Speaker 14: Of, fuel, right and then measures started getting, implemented so
• 38:40
  Speaker 14: you started to look at demand in these three. Buckets
• 38:43
  Speaker 14: bucket number one was just demand response relative to, price
• 38:47
  Speaker 14: which is a normal demand. Response the second was a
• 38:50
  Speaker 14: demand response relative to. Policies so countries were putting into
• 38:53
  Speaker 14: place these policy measures to curtail demand so that they
• 38:56
  Speaker 14: didn't run out of, product because running out of gasoline
• 38:59
  Speaker 14: or diesel in a country that needs it for emergency
• 39:03
  Speaker 14: uses such as emergency.
• 39:05
  Speaker 8: Vehicles or hospitals really needed to make sure that they
• 39:08
  Speaker 8: kept their.
• 39:08
  Speaker 14: Product and then you had a demand response for just
• 39:11
  Speaker 14: countries that just ran. Out and so while the rich
• 39:13
  Speaker 14: countries were able to buy more fuel from the global,
• 39:18
  Speaker 14: market they were able to stay relatively, balanced while the
• 39:21
  Speaker 14: poorer country.
• 39:22
  Speaker 8: Suffered and that's really what we.
• 39:23
  Speaker 14: Saw so did we run out of, Fuels, yes some countries, did.
• 39:27
  Speaker 8: But when you look at The United states And, europe
• 39:29
  Speaker 8: obviously we had. Plenty so were we on the. Precipice it's.
• 39:34
  Speaker 14: Possible it's just possible that the richer countries would have
• 39:39
  Speaker 14: maintained while we would have continued to see the poorer
• 39:42
  Speaker 14: countries diminish in supply of.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Products, michelle we're almost out of. Time but given everything
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: that you have just been describing around what has been
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: the genie that has been out of this? Bottle with
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: the fees in The strait Of, hormus with the difficulty
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: of getting refining capacity back up and, running what's a
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: realistic price of a gallon of gas By november in your?
• 40:06
  Speaker 14: Mind you, know because of The strait Of, hormus the
• 40:13
  Speaker 14: traffic through The strait Of hormoves has still been relatively.
• 40:15
  Speaker 14: CONSTRAINED i think it's still down at least eighty five
• 40:17
  Speaker 14: percent from the peaks that we had prior to the.
• 40:21
  Speaker 14: War you need to get the traffic backup and moving
• 40:24
  Speaker 14: and the refineries back up and. Running AND i think
• 40:27
  Speaker 14: we all know that there are theoretically some minds in the,
• 40:30
  Speaker 14: streets so those need to get. Cleared so By, november
• 40:33
  Speaker 14: gasoline prices could still be well above three dollars a.
• 40:36
  Speaker 10: Gallon all.
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: Right as far as oil, goes we're still looking at
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: sixty nine sixty nine dollars a BARREL wti seventy three
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: almost For, Brent Michelle. Brohard great, Conversation, kepler thanks for
• 40:51
  Speaker 3: listening To The balance Of Power. Podcast make sure to
• 40:54
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• 40:57
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• 40:59
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• 41:02
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