Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / Fantasy Football Deep Dive with Sean Koerner | Part 1

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Fantasy Football Deep Dive with Sean Koerner | Part 1 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites presented by Draft Kings. The crown
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: is yours. We are an Action Network podcast. I'm Brandon Kravitz,
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: your host, back at it with my go to lady
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: here on the pod, Kendri Middleton. And we've got a
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: special guest joining us as well, one of the brightest
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: fantasy and stat minds that are out there, Sean Kerner,
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: is joining the podcast. Evan Abrams lurking in the background
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: as well. We have a lot to get to over
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: the next couple of episodes, the most accurate fantasy football
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: information that we can deliver. Sean an Official, Welcome to
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the podcast. It's a pleasure to chop it up with you.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: And I've noticed that you have brought the proper garb
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: to our podcast as well, donning the Vikings hat.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: Thanks for having me.
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: I had to wear this because you know, I know
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: you guys are super high on them and we can
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: get to him eventually. But Kyler Murray might actually be
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: their quarterback this year, which is going to be exciting.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So I've been playing fantasy football since I graduated high school.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: It's two thousand and three and I will never forget
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  Speaker 1: the first draft I was ever in. I was hooked,
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: like before the season even played itself out. Just the
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: idea as a massive sports fan that I could draft
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: football players was all I needed to know. My very
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  Speaker 1: first pick was Randy Moss when he was on the
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Oakland Raiders. I wound up trading him in the middle
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: of the season. It was also my first fantasy trade.
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  Speaker 1: So Randy Moss is near and dear to my heart
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: for that reason. You get the Vikings hat on. This
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: wasn't in his This is like right in the middle
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: of peak Randy Moss. Or you got Vikings Moss and
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: then Patriots Moss. I got like the middle mid Moss.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Do you remember your very first fantasy football selet When
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: was it? Who was it?
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  Speaker 2: So? It was back in I think it was nineteen
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  Speaker 2: ninety eight.
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  Speaker 3: I was always obsessed with my dad's fancy football league.
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  Speaker 3: He would always have the draft in Vegas, so he
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: would take me to Vegas with him when I was
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  Speaker 3: like ten years old, one around the sports book with
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: just you know, guys, smoking and yelling and cussing, and
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  Speaker 3: I was already obsessed with betting by ten years old,
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  Speaker 3: and my dad finally let me draft a team around
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  Speaker 3: that time, and my first pick was a horrible one.
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  Speaker 3: It was Cordell Stewart, who at the time was like
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  Speaker 3: the new Cheek code, right. He was like a rushing quarterback,
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  Speaker 3: had a really good, like second half of the season.
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  Speaker 3: I kind of forget what happened, but he was my
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: first pick. He was terrible for me that year. But
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  Speaker 3: luckily my last pick of the draft that year was
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: actually Randy Moss his first season.
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  Speaker 2: Nobody really knew who he was at the time, and.
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  Speaker 3: I actually had Chris Carter as well and Randall Cunningham,
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  Speaker 3: so by like week three I was no longer even
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  Speaker 3: using Cordell Stewart my first overall pick. And you know
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  Speaker 3: I had Cunney, Ham, Carter, and Moss that year, so
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  Speaker 3: it worked out just fine.
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  Speaker 1: How about that this a little Randy Moss connection. As
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: we brought it all the way home, Kendrew, do you
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  Speaker 1: have any any recollections of the first draft you were
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  Speaker 1: ever in?
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: Oh? For sure.
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  Speaker 5: So my dad had been playing fantasy football with the
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  Speaker 5: same guy since nineteen eighty nine.
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  Speaker 4: My brother left for freshman year.
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  Speaker 5: Of college the spring of two thousand and six, so
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  Speaker 5: I played with my dad that fall, and my dad
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: had never won out of the entirety of the time
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  Speaker 5: he'd been playing with his friends and he finally let me.
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  Speaker 5: He U was an auction draft and we auctioned the
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: team and it was the first year he won, was
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  Speaker 5: the team that I helped him manage it. So it's
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  Speaker 5: still my favorite trump card to my brother, and I
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: would like to say to Casey Middleton, suck it.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Perfect introduction to the fantasy football world. Coming up, Sean
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  Speaker 1: Kerner is going to impart his fantasy wisdom on all
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: of us. But first a knowledge drop as we chat
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: about the best sports app in the land. The cup
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• 4:32
  Speaker 1: The crown is yours Sean Kerner is one of the
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, twenty plus years
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of experience, and he is here to help guide us
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  Speaker 1: through some what will hopefully be good decisions along our
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  Speaker 1: journey to fantasy football excellence in twenty twenty six. Sean,
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  Speaker 1: let's start at the top of the board. We're gonna
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  Speaker 1: get into the top ten moves that were made in
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: the offseason draft stuff, how it impacts those players and
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  Speaker 1: the players around them. But the thing all of us
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  Speaker 1: need to know first and foremost is who's the top
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  Speaker 1: guy this year in fantasy And is it format dependent?
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  Speaker 2: I mean number one overall?
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  Speaker 3: Number one over Yeah, I'd say it's really a toss
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  Speaker 3: up right now between Jamier Gibbs and Bijon Robinson, and
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  Speaker 3: currently have I have Gibbs just beating out Bijon, and
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  Speaker 3: I'll get to that in a bit, But you know,
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: David Montgomery leaving four of the Texans really opens things
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  Speaker 3: up for Gibbs. So I think, you know, gibbs touchdown
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  Speaker 3: upside is a little bit higher than Bijon, So that's
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  Speaker 3: why I give him the edge. But you really can't
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  Speaker 3: go wrong with either. Back to kick off your draft
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  Speaker 3: really in any format, whether it's you know, standard half PPR, PPR,
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  Speaker 3: doesn't matter. Both those guys are going to be beasts,
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  Speaker 3: all right.
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  Speaker 1: Let's get to it. The top ten moves this offseason.
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  Speaker 1: How it impacts fantasy values again, not only for those players,
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  Speaker 1: but for the guys that are around them, somebody that
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: has been brought up numerous times on this podcast already
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: and will be in the future as well.
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  Speaker 4: Having Ni Kasher bets early.
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  Speaker 1: Tua go into the Atlanta Falcons right now, he's in
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  Speaker 1: the driver's seat to be the starting quarterback for Atlanta.
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  Speaker 1: I doubt that he finishes that way. But what does
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  Speaker 1: he do for the pass catchers involved in this offense?
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  Speaker 1: We love Drake London, I think we like Kyle Pitts,
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  Speaker 1: and as frustrating as Tua is from a real life perspective,
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  Speaker 1: I know as a Dolphins fan he did help create
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  Speaker 1: some monster seasons from Tyreek Hill, Jalen watt All, even
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  Speaker 1: John hu Smith had a breakout year with Tua as
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: his quarterback. So what does this do as far as
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: our assessment of the Atlanta pass catchers?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, so this.
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  Speaker 3: Doesn't move of a needle too too much for the
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  Speaker 3: falcons or for TOAs specifically. I mean, he's not really
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: a guy that you're targeting in one quarterback leagues, but
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: he's essential getting the keys to like a Lamborghini when
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: it comes to the fancy community, because this offense has
• 7:05
  Speaker 3: b Jean Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts, So realistically,
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: we just want him to not crash the car. And
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: with you know, Michael Pennock's coming back from an ACL tear,
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  Speaker 3: it's unclear if he's gonna be ready for week one.
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  Speaker 3: This at least gives them stability, So I think this
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  Speaker 3: actually helps raise the floor of you know, Drake London,
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  Speaker 3: Kyle Pitts, because it really doesn't matter which quarterbacks in there.
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  Speaker 3: You're gonna have a mediocre left handed quarterback who doesn't
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  Speaker 3: run at all. But what happens is if if one
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: of the quarterbacks get gets hurt, there's really not much
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: of a drop off, so that kind of helps their
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: upside a ton. You know, someone like DJ Moore, if
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen gets hurt, you know his fancy value is
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  Speaker 3: gonna take.
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  Speaker 2: A big, big hit.
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  Speaker 3: But when it comes to these guys, you know, it
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  Speaker 3: really doesn't matter which guy's under center, It's gonna be
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  Speaker 3: pretty much even across the board. Plus, I think just
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  Speaker 3: having both quarterbacks be left handed helps Kevin Stefanski, you know,
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  Speaker 3: plan the offense where you know the pass protection is
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  Speaker 3: going to be the same for both quarterbacks. But I
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  Speaker 3: think this just helps raise the floor of you know,
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  Speaker 3: Drake London and Kyle Pitts specifically.
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  Speaker 5: So Kyle Pitts right now, according to ESPN for fantasy
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  Speaker 5: stuff this year, is ranked right at six, Harold Fannon
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  Speaker 5: sitting above him, and Sam Laporta is sitting below him.
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  Speaker 5: Do you think that he has a higher ceiling this
• 8:30
  Speaker 5: season in comparison to probably some of these guys that
• 8:33
  Speaker 5: are lumped in right with him, just for maybe like
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  Speaker 5: a change of pace, a change of scenery with Tua
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  Speaker 5: or do you not really look into those things as
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  Speaker 5: far as fantasy goes.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I have him as my tight end five, So
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  Speaker 3: I think he's a great pick there, kind of what
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  Speaker 3: I was saying that, you know, he has such a
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  Speaker 3: high floor in this offense. They're probably going to run
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  Speaker 3: a ton of two tight end sets with Stefanski, so
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  Speaker 3: just a lot of the targets are going to get
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  Speaker 3: funneled to London Pits and even Vjon Robbins, and you know,
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  Speaker 3: you have like Tucker Craft, George Kittle. They're coming back
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  Speaker 3: from injuries where we don't even know if they're gonna
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  Speaker 3: be ready for Week one, so that kind of helps,
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  Speaker 3: you know, Pits out. Plus, it seems like Pitts has
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  Speaker 3: been around for a decade now, but he's he's still
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  Speaker 3: only twenty five years old, so he's like in his
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  Speaker 3: literal prime right now, so he might as we might
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  Speaker 3: see his best seasons, you know, the next couple of years.
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  Speaker 3: So I'm still pretty high on Kyle Pitts. And again
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  Speaker 3: it really doesn't matter if it's Tua or Pennix under center.
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  Speaker 3: You know, I have him as my tight end five regardless.
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  Speaker 1: Seeing him go off the board at tight end seven
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  Speaker 1: right now, So it seems like, uh, I think, at
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  Speaker 1: least as of right now, we even gotten into the
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  Speaker 1: meat of draft season yet, but it seems like fantasy
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  Speaker 1: managers have been properly burned. I think everybody's been burned
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  Speaker 1: by Kyle Pitts at this point. So it's his performance
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  Speaker 1: last year isn't driven up the value too much. Isaiah
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: likely is an interesting one. He's gonna be our move
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: number nine that we're going to cover here. He goes
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: to the New York Giants in free agency. Does this
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  Speaker 1: make him a potential fantasy stud? We saw glimpses of
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: this in Baltimore. Always wanted more out of him, and
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: it seemed like all he really did was drive down
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: the value of Mark Andrews for the last couple of years.
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  Speaker 1: So I guess I want to tackle this from two perspectives. One,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: do we like Isaiah Likely as a viable draft eligible
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  Speaker 1: fantasy tight end? And does this now bring Mark Andrews
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  Speaker 1: relevancy back with the Ravens.
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  Speaker 3: Yes, yes to both, because you know, I have Likely
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  Speaker 3: as my tight end fifteen right now, so I think
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  Speaker 3: he's worth drafting as like a high upside flyer. But specifically,
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: like in the beginning of the season, you know, it
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: looks like Malik Neighbors won't be ready for week one,
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: and who knows when he'll be, you know, one hundred percent,
• 10:49
  Speaker 3: because he had that you know, ACL tear. Then he
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: had to have a follow up procedure, you know, where
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: they clean up scar tissue. And he was recently in
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: that celeb softball where he was limping around so that
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: is not a good sign. So they might be leaning
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: on Likely from day one. And you know, they got
• 11:07
  Speaker 3: rid of one Dale Robinson, so there's plenty of targets
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  Speaker 3: to go too Likely to start, So I think, you know,
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  Speaker 3: he'll be Dart's top target early in the season, and
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  Speaker 3: depending on how long Neighbors is out, you know that
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  Speaker 3: that'll be you know, potentially multiple weeks to start the season.
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  Speaker 3: And then you know, Mark Andrews obviously, I think he's
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  Speaker 3: back to being the clear top tight end in Baltimore now.
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  Speaker 3: Plus we saw, you know, they despite having Derek Henry,
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: one of the best short yards backs in the history
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  Speaker 3: of the league, they started giving Mark Andrews, you know,
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  Speaker 3: those tush push plays and they had that wrinkle where
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: he kind of faked it and he bounced it outside
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: and he had a thirty five yard rushing score. So
• 11:47
  Speaker 3: if they keep giving him those tush push plays, like
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: even at the goal line, you know, that's kind of
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: a sneaky way to boost his upside even more. So, Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: he's back inside my top twelve and right now he's
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  Speaker 3: my tight end eleven to open.
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: Up the season.
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  Speaker 5: I want to piggyback off of this for a second.
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  Speaker 5: Does this do anything to move the needle for you
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  Speaker 5: with Jackson Dart?
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  Speaker 3: Uh? No, not really because if if Milake Neighbors is out,
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: that's not good for his value. And the thing with
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: Dart is, you know, he just has massive upside because
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: of his rushing ability. But if he doesn't figure out,
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: you know, how to slide or avoid taking you know,
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: big hits that knock him out of the games, nothing's
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: going to matter.
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  Speaker 2: You know.
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  Speaker 3: That's why Josh Allen has been so good for so
• 12:29
  Speaker 3: long as you know, he uses his legs a ton.
• 12:32
  Speaker 3: He takes a ton of big hits, but he doesn't
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: get hurt because he does know how to kind of
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: avoid taking those big hits. So ultimately, you know, Dart's
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: value is going to come down to just preserving his
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: own health.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: I I can't get over getting burned by Mark Andrews
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: with one of my big keepers in the Dynasty League.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: So we have a little bit of beef right now.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Let's move on to number eight. Is David Montgomery to
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the Texans. He already alluded to this moments ago, and
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: what this could mean for Jamiir Gibbs, who, for a
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: lot of people is gonna be the top pick in fantasy.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: So Montgomery's gone not in Detroit anymore, and Jahmiir Gibbs
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: has a little bit more of a runway to have
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: some massive belt cal usage. The same could be said
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: for Montgomery. I was looking at the depth chart. Not
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: a lot of competition unless you're a Woody Marks guy.
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: But is Montgomery a one trick pony with all of
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: the short yardage stuff right now RB twenty three going
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  Speaker 1: off the board. Is he's somebody that we should like
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: given his situation with the Houston Texans, he's the guy.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: Uh No, I love taking Montgomery. When he was, you know,
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: the backup in Detroit. I always thought he was overlooked
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: because he had you know, double digit touch on upside
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: and if Jamior Gibbs were to ever miss time, you know,
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: he'd be a top five back in my projection. So
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: when he goes to Houston, like, obviously he's going to
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: be the lead back, but the offensive line isn't as good.
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: They're not going to create as many goal line chances
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: overall for them. Last year he wasn't that great at
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: the goal line. He only had five touchdowns on sixteen
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: Russia attempts. So I think he might be just an
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: average guy in Houston, where you know he's going to
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: see a ton of work. But I don't love his
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: upside here. But on the flip side, I mean Jamiir Gibbs.
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: Those are sixteen Russia attempts that he might have around
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: the goal line with Al Montgomery because they brought in
• 14:24
  Speaker 3: Isaiah Pacheco, which you know he's not really a goal
• 14:27
  Speaker 3: line back. So I just think Jamiir Gibbs his value
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: goes to the moon. And you know, right now I
• 14:34
  Speaker 3: have him ranked number one overall, So I think this
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: move it kind of looks nice for Montgomery, but in reality,
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: I think this just unleashes Jamiir gibbs upside.
• 14:43
  Speaker 4: So I'm one of these people.
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: Sometimes it works out really well for me and sometimes
• 14:47
  Speaker 5: it's a detriment.
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: But I like to take in a running back when
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: they fall into my lap.
• 14:51
  Speaker 5: I like to take someone early, as everyone does, maybe
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: David Montgomery second round, early third. I like to kind
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: of pick up guys back just because of how injury
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: prone running backs can be. Is Woody marks one of
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: those guys you could see if you if a guy
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: like David Montgomery falls into your lap, should you pick
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: up what he Marx later or should you avoid doing that?
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I think Mars makes sense as a
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: high upside backup, and I kind of have the same
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: strategy where I just take studs early on and then
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: I kind of in general avoid these kind of like
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: RB twenty guys. I call it the frozen pondier because
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: the running back position is such, you know, a shit
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: show that you're gonna have backups be League winners at
• 15:34
  Speaker 3: the end of the year. So I like just having
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: you know, five or six however many I can have
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: sitting on my bench, and Woody Marks would be one
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: of those guys because I don't really see anybody else
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: behind him on the depth chart that would really step
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: up if Montgomery were to miss time. And you know, Marks,
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: he struggled as a rookie last year, but I think
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: a lot of that had to do with the offensive line.
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: So you know, if Montgomery struggles as well, you know Marx,
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: could you know more of a committee with him. So
• 16:01
  Speaker 3: I think Marx is one of those guys that's being
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: drafted low enough where he's definitely, you know, one of
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: the backups I would consider stashing on your bench to
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: start the season.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: You seem pretty dismissive when it came to the outlook
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: on Isaiah Pacheco. That number two running back for Detroit
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: has been pretty valuable. Even if he's not going to
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: get goal line work Gibbs, there's going to be a
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: ceiling on how much he's used because he's so efficient
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: with his touches, he can still be the top back
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: in fantasy with another guy that's involved. Maybe we don't
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: expect Montgomery production, but is he somebody that we should
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: be taking a look at that people have kind of
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: forgotten about.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's it's unfair to dismiss, you know,
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: the backup running back for the Lions, because you're right,
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: this is an offense we definitely want to invest in.
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: But I really don't see him eating into you know,
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: gibbs goal line work that much or his passing game work.
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: If anything, he might give him some breathers to like
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: start a drive, which are the least valuable touches in fantasy.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: So I think he's probably going to have to regain
• 17:05
  Speaker 3: his you know, pre injury form and break off. You know,
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: long touchdowns really offer value, and that's that's not something
• 17:11
  Speaker 3: you can really bank on. So I think with Pachecko
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: you would just kind of with Woody Marks, you just
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: kind of roster him, and if Gibbs miss his time,
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: obviously his value is going to take off. So you know,
• 17:23
  Speaker 3: I would certainly consider Pachecko a high upside backup, but
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: not like Montgomery where you're drafting him in the top
• 17:29
  Speaker 3: twenty five. But certainly you know where Pachecko is going.
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: He's he's certainly worth a flyer because of this offense overall.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Before we move on to number seven, I want to
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: touch on that philosophy that Kendra was talking about taking
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: those stud running backs early. I have sort of shifted
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: over the last several years and being much more aggressive
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: with drafting a stud wide receiver early in a draft
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: because of the volatility at the running back position. Yet
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: it seems like we're starting to It's like, you know,
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: everything is cyclical with the stuff that we do, and
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: it feels like the running back position is almost becoming
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: more reliable than even or at least as reliable as
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: the top wide receivers. I mean, look, Pukainakua is one
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: of the top rated wide receivers going into the year
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: in fantasy. Is trustworthy really a label that I would
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: throw his way if I want to get these running
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: backs early and I want to avoid that frozen pond.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: Do you tend to push some guys, not the obvious
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: ones at the very top, but I'm talking like a
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor, James Cook ashtinent. Do you tend to slide
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: them up past some of those stud wide receivers when
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: you're going into your drafts.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: I think it depends, and I personally do like to
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: get a stud early on, so I'm all for that,
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: but I still think the smart play is still to
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: take one or two legit, you know, top.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: Ten wide receivers early on.
• 18:54
  Speaker 3: I think I have noticed that trend in the past
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: couple of years of running backs being more stable, but
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: I think part of that is to we really haven't
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: seen any you know, as many significant injuries to the
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: position the last few years, which probably isn't sustainable. I mean,
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: running backs, you know, the really good ones take twenty
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: twenty five plus hits a game. They're more injury prone,
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: which when you're taking somebody that early in the draft,
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: that really, you know, kills your team if they go down.
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: So I think we've just been fortunate with stud running
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: back health the past couple of years, but it's still
• 19:27
  Speaker 3: a very, very volatile, risky position. So I still like
• 19:31
  Speaker 3: getting you know, stud wide receivers early on as well.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: Plus you know, just some of that, we've had some
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: of the receivers kind of deal with quarterback injuries that
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: kind of kill their value. So it's just been kind
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: of a fluky last couple of years where I still think,
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: you know, wide receivers are the safer bet early on.
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: Anyway, Well, this next guy that we're going to talk
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: about might not be in that elite tier of wide receiver,
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: but he has a chance to get back there. That
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: is DJ Moore going to the Buffalo Bill got to
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: love what this does for Josh Allen, and Allen has
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: been If you're somebody I don't know that Sean is
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be one of those that advises this. If you're
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: somebody that takes quarterbacks early, Josh Allen would be the
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: guy that you'd want to go after. He's been a
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: lock for top five at the position every year since
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: the pandemic. Ironically, you have DJ Moore here falling in
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: the range where you kind of have to choose between
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: him and the Chicago guys Luther Burden and Roma Dunza.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Where do you land on Dj Moore Now with an
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: elite quarterback like Josh Allen tossing him the rock.
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: It's certainly gonna help him because he was kind of
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: an afterthought in Chicago last year. He was just kind
• 20:38
  Speaker 3: of running low percentage deep routes to open things up
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: for Burden and Loveland, especially at the end of the season.
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: So I think it's gonna help his value. But just
• 20:47
  Speaker 3: the way that Bills have operated ever since moving on
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: from Stefan Diggs has just been spreading the ball around,
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: so maybe they kind of returned to having a true
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: alpha in DJ Moore, which certainly help him out. And
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: I think ultimately this just helps out Josh Allen even more.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: Not that he needed help. He's been you know, the
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: QB one now for six plus years in my rankings,
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: so he didn't need much help. But this certainly helps
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen having a you know, true number one target.
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: But if anything, this just helps unleash Luthor Burden the
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: third heading in the year two. He was one of
• 21:23
  Speaker 3: my favorite rookies last year. I was obsessed with him
• 21:27
  Speaker 3: towards the end of the year. I was just betting
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: on his props all the time. So I think just
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: Dj Moore being gone is going to help unleash Luthor Burden,
• 21:35
  Speaker 3: who I just think has a ton of upside. So
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: he's going to be one of the wide receivers I'm
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: targeting the most in this range. DJ Moore, you know,
• 21:45
  Speaker 3: I have him right around that wide receiver thirty range,
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: so I think makes sense to take flowers on him.
• 21:49
  Speaker 3: But if anything, this just makes me more excited about
• 21:52
  Speaker 3: Burden heading into his year two season.
• 21:55
  Speaker 5: I want to talk about you mentioning that the Bills
• 21:58
  Speaker 5: will probably be spreading the ball out more. I was
• 22:01
  Speaker 5: dumb enough to drink the keyon Coleman kool aid before
• 22:04
  Speaker 5: the season started last year, and he was one of
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: those guys that I got really late and kept on
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: my bench and eventually just had f it. This is
• 22:10
  Speaker 5: not working out. Khalil Shakir though, a guy who's very
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: hot and cold. Do you see this helping his production
• 22:16
  Speaker 5: and maybe him getting back on tracto version of him
• 22:19
  Speaker 5: we saw two seasons ago, or do you think that
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: this is just going to kind of stick the fork
• 22:23
  Speaker 5: in him and he's going to be a role player
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: in this offense.
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean it's probably gonna stick the fork
• 22:29
  Speaker 3: and in because DJ Moore is kind of a similar
• 22:31
  Speaker 3: skill set where he's you know, he's going to command
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: a ton of targets. It could open things up for
• 22:37
  Speaker 3: Shakir though, because he's still you know, excellent after the catch,
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: so I still think he's going to be solid when
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: he does see targets. But again, if anything, this just
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: helps out Josh Shallon if anything. But you know, they
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: still have Dalton Kincaid who can command a ton of
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: targets at tight end, so I still think they're going
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: to spread it around, which ultimately is going to hurt
• 23:00
  Speaker 3: Shakier's value.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: As long as everybody's healthy.
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Let's wrap with number six. This is part one, by
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: the way, We've got the top five coming up in
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: a following episode. Carnell Tate drafted to the Tennessee Titans
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: first wide receiver off the board in the real NFL
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: draft in April. He instantly becomes what we presume to
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: be the top target for cam Ward Wandeale Robinson is
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: there as well last year, and it was rookie season
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: for cam Ward, so you don't want to judge him
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: too harshly, but his top wide receiver was tight end Chigakonkwu,
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: who only tallied five hundred and sixty yards and two touchdowns.
• 23:37
  Speaker 1: So what's the outlook for Carneal Tait and for these
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: Titans pass catchers?
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah?
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: I love Carnel Tit. I wasn't shocked that he was
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: the first wide receiver selected in the draft, although I
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: don't know if the Titans would have drafted Jeremiah Love
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: if he was there. I know that was like the
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: most likely landing spot. But I think this this should
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: help cam Ward as you alluded to, like, he had
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: such a disappointing rookie season, it's hard to really tell
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: how much of it was him just being bad or
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: just lack of weapons around him. So now that they
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: have very polished rookie and Carnel Tate there, and then
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: they brought in Wandel Robinson, which should help him have
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: more layup, easy targets to keep the chains moving, it's
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: really now or ever for Ward to kind of show
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: that he has some upside in year two. So I'm
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: not sure how you guys thought about wardheading the last year.
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: I was super high on him, very disappointed in his
• 24:35
  Speaker 3: rookie season, so I think this should help him out.
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: But again it's up to a board to start proving
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: that this year.
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: I'm going in a completely opposite direction, and you can
• 24:45
  Speaker 5: tell me if I'm stupid for doing this.
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: I love to take a defense too early.
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: Because if you get a good defense, that's automatic points
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: that are added that you get to keep and you
• 24:54
  Speaker 5: don't have to worry about. Does the current construction of
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: the AFC sou make you want to take the Jags
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: or the Texans defense higher because of the shit show
• 25:05
  Speaker 5: that's going to be going on at quarterback in Indy,
• 25:07
  Speaker 5: the potential growing pains that cam Ward is going to
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: continue to have, especially with a rookie wide receiver as
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: his number one, the instability of c J. Stroud, and
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: then Jacksonville fans like myself hoping to see consistency from
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: Trevor Lawrence. Do you think that that's a good look
• 25:22
  Speaker 5: in a division like that to potentially go for a
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: defense earlier rather than later.
• 25:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think if you're targeting a defense from that division,
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: definitely the Texans. I think, you know, taking the Seahawks
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: rams or Texans defense early on if you don't want
• 25:37
  Speaker 3: to deal with streaming the position like I do in season.
• 25:39
  Speaker 3: Makes a ton of sense. You don't have to worry
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: about them. You know, their kind of matchup proof they're
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: going to rack up a ton of sacks, which is,
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: you know, the best thing when it comes to defense.
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: But I personally, I never draft a kicker or defense
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: in a draft if the league doesn't allow, you know,
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: it doesn't force you.
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: That's kind of a thing that I do.
• 26:00
  Speaker 3: So instead of drafting a kicker or defense of the draft,
• 26:03
  Speaker 3: I just draft two extra backup running backs, just sort
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: of as you know, lotto flyers heading into Week one,
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: because you know, shit happens and you can end up
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: with having a really good running back. I did that
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: with le James Connor back in the day when Le'Veon
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: Bell was dealing with like some suspension potential. I just
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: drafted James Connor with my last pick, and then Leveon
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: Bell was suspended for six games or whatever, and I
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: had an RB one instead of drafting a kicker defense
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: at the end of the draft. So I've always been
• 26:35
  Speaker 3: a fan of skipping drafting a kicker defense and just
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: adding more backup running backs until until Week one when
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: you're when by week one, Okay, yeah, I'm gonna drop
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: the two backup running backs and add a kicker defense.
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: But at least you can buy some time from your
• 26:52
  Speaker 3: draft to the start of the season to kind of
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: have a lottery ticket.
• 26:55
  Speaker 5: You're gonna have to pry my defense in my kicker
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: from my cold dead hands.
• 26:59
  Speaker 4: I'm sorry.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Kendra drafted a defense in round seven just so she
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: doesn't have to deal with the stress of the season.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: Sound strategy, by the way, I really like that. And
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: if you have a couple of weeks left, if you
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: do this mid preseason, you can kind of scout play
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: scout with your It's like having a scout team and
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: then you have to and then you come in and
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: you kind of act like the coach. He goes, all right, guys,
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: it's cut day. You know, we got to get rid
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: of two of you bozo's.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Thanks so much. That's exactly how I operate.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Yes time for our DraftKings plant the flag segment of
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: the day.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck. We
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: are going to nominate a fantasy boom, the man who
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: will smash his average draft position. Kendra, who do you
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: like as your fantasy boom this year?
• 27:50
  Speaker 5: I think we have to go with Kyler Murray because
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: we are now a Vikings podcast, and I very much
• 27:55
  Speaker 5: agree with the angle that I think he's probably going
• 27:58
  Speaker 5: to be able to rock up some yards with his legs.
• 28:01
  Speaker 4: So I'm going to go Kyler Murray.
• 28:02
  Speaker 5: He's got weapons, he's got KOC second chance at a career.
• 28:05
  Speaker 5: I think that that's probably going to have a little
• 28:07
  Speaker 5: bit of a fire under his ass.
• 28:08
  Speaker 4: So that's where I'm.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: Going to go. Well, I was going to go there too,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: but I figured you might so I left it on
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: the table, and I'm going to go in the direction
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: of a running back who is far too underrated at
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: this point. Tony Pollard, only two running backs have rushed
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: for one thousand yards and four straight seasons. It's Derrick Henry,
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: who is never on my fantasy team for whatever reason.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: And Tony hollered the Titans were in the market for
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: Jeremiah Love, they didn't take him. They didn't address the
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: running back position. This should be an improved offense. He's
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: going his running back thirty two right now. One of
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: the steals of the draft. Make sure that you place
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: all of your future bets over on Draft Kings with
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: a crown is yours and that'll do it for today's
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: episode of special Thanks to our producers David Payne and
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Gifford Gold, Statsound Evan Abrams, and our guests Sean Kerner
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: the Favorites. We'll be back right here on the Action
• 29:03
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• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Our show has been presented by DraftKings. The Crown is Yours.
• 29:21
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• 29:25
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• 29:28
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