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Is Trump blowing smoke on wildfire tariff threats · THE DAILY BRIEF

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Trump is renewing threats to impose a tariff on Canada
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: because of the wildfire smoke traveling south of the border.
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: I think what we're is we're going to put a
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: major tariff on Texas, on Mexico because of the lettuce,
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: and we're going to put a big tariff on Canada
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  Speaker 2: because of the smoke. I've told Canada they have to
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: do something about it. You know, We've never had this problem.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: All of a sudden, we have this problem with Canada.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: So we'll have to talk to them about that later.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: This comes after the White House announced new plans to
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  Speaker 1: hate Canada with a fifty percent tariff on a number
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: of goods earlier this week. In response to those threats,
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  Speaker 1: Prime Minister Mark Karney told reporters retaliation is among the
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: strategies Canada is considering.
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  Speaker 3: What kinds of trade retaliation measures are you willing to
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  Speaker 3: consider now, if any? And is everything on the table?
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  Speaker 3: If there's no agreement before August nineteenth, everything's on the table.
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  Speaker 3: If there's no agreement, depending on the outcome of the negotiations,
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  Speaker 3: there's a full range of things that we can do
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  Speaker 3: in that regard. We don't need to respond in advance.
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  Speaker 3: In fact, either think it would be counterproductive at this
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  Speaker 3: stage to respond to the advans.
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  Speaker 1: Joining me now is the executive director of the Future
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  Speaker 1: Borders Coalition, Laura Dawson. Nice to see you, Laura, Thanks
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: for coming on. Nice to see you, Ja, Laura. Just
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  Speaker 1: as we were coming on the air, President Donald Trump
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  Speaker 1: was again threatening new tariffs, big tariffs, he says, on
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  Speaker 1: Canada over the wildfires. Pardon the bad pun, but do
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  Speaker 1: you think he's blowing smoke or is there a chance
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  Speaker 1: for a hit again with new tariffs over this natural disaster.
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  Speaker 4: Well, there's nothing that the President likes more than getting
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  Speaker 4: an impact, and this is definitely a line that's getting
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  Speaker 4: a rise out of people. A lot of Americans are
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: experiencing the Canadian wild fire smoke. Most of the Americans
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  Speaker 4: I know are being very understanding. It's a natural disaster,
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  Speaker 4: So it's a thing we share. The thing about tariffs
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  Speaker 4: is they have to be somehow based in their national tradeline.
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  Speaker 4: You can stretch it and you can pull it, as
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: they've done before, but there's absolutely no basis in trade
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: law for wildfire smoke.
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  Speaker 2: So while he's getting an impact from it, I don't.
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  Speaker 4: See even the most peculiar gymnastics by jambis soon figuring
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  Speaker 4: out out a way to translate those into cross border
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  Speaker 4: trade tariffs.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about the other terroffs, because it's hard to
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  Speaker 1: keep tracks sometimes there's just so many coming at us potentially,
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  Speaker 1: and that's the other fifty percent tariffs that were threatened
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  Speaker 1: earlier this week on hundreds of Canadian goods, billions of
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  Speaker 1: dollars worth of products. Why do you think that Trump
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: is going that direction?
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  Speaker 2: Now?
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  Speaker 1: Do you think it's to further punish this country? Is
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  Speaker 1: it to jolt Canada into action and the KUSMA talks?
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  Speaker 1: In your view, what do you think was the motivation
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  Speaker 1: for levying new tariffs on more goods at this juncture?
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Sure, so we've had two sets of tariffs this week.
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  Speaker 4: Let's talk about what they call the three thirty eighths first,
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  Speaker 4: and those to me seem to be a more targeted
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  Speaker 4: tariff which are designed to galvanize action from Canada.
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  Speaker 2: There are fifty percent tariff.
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  Speaker 4: They're targeted towards auto sector. No, they're targeted towards many products,
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  Speaker 4: but they're intended to galvanize action in auto sector, dairy
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  Speaker 4: and the alcohol ban and so I think that is
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  Speaker 4: fairly specific towards Canada saying, hey, guys.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Get the letout.
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  Speaker 4: We've got a USMCA Cousma conversation going on. We want
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  Speaker 4: to see you bend a little bit to that. At
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  Speaker 4: the same time, when you look at the actual numbers,
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  Speaker 4: it's not a great deal of trade that is covered.
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  Speaker 4: It's about ten percent five percent of Canada US trade,
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  Speaker 4: So it's a large percentage terms, but the actual amount
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  Speaker 4: of trade is not that large. I think it is
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  Speaker 4: more focused and it's more focused on getting progress in
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  Speaker 4: these Cosma conversations. The other tariffs, however, that's a different
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  Speaker 4: thing entirely.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean on those tariffs that are designed to,
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  Speaker 1: in your opinion, spur action on Kuzma, do you think
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  Speaker 1: that they're there's a chance that they're lifted like that
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  Speaker 1: they don't go into effect because it's really the timeline
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  Speaker 1: is thirty days right before these are due to take effect.
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  Speaker 1: Jamis Ngrier suggests that what you're saying here is that
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  Speaker 1: we want to get Canada talking about some of these issues.
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  Speaker 1: Do you think there's a chance we avoid them entirely?
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  Speaker 1: Like can we get some tear relief in thirty days?
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  Speaker 1: It seems like a short timeline.
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  Speaker 2: I think there's a pathway to do that.
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  Speaker 4: I think the three sectors or areas that they've targeted,
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  Speaker 4: we've heard from experts that there is a reconcilable solution
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  Speaker 4: in all three of those sectors.
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  Speaker 2: They're not no go zones for anybody.
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  Speaker 4: It's just a matter of getting the negotiators to the
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  Speaker 4: table and figuring something else out. Also, those what they
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  Speaker 4: call three thirty eighths, and I'm a trade policy professor,
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  Speaker 4: I had never heard about three thirty eight. They've never
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  Speaker 4: been used before. They're one of those presidential instruments. They
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  Speaker 4: don't have to have oversight from commerce, but they can
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  Speaker 4: be overturned by the courts.
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  Speaker 2: We don't want to go through that process.
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  Speaker 4: That's what have but with those IEP of FETANL tariffs
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  Speaker 4: that took a full year to get overturned by the courts.
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  Speaker 4: But these are one of those discretionary presidential instruments that
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  Speaker 4: he can throw on quickly but hopefully can be removed
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  Speaker 4: quickly if he sees progress.
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  Speaker 2: And what do we mean by progress?
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  Speaker 4: This president wants things he can announce as good news
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  Speaker 4: stories that come directly from his actions and interventions. So
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  Speaker 4: I think we're on a road that these tariffs could
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  Speaker 4: be preempted, but there'll have to be some progress in
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  Speaker 4: in Kuzma USMCA.
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  Speaker 1: You might have heard Ontario Premier Doug Ford. He says,
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  Speaker 1: if these new tariffs do take effect, the fifty percent tariffs,
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  Speaker 1: the three thirty eight terariffs as you call them, if
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: they do take effect, we should hit back at the Americans.
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  Speaker 1: You know he wants to see an escalation. Not only
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: in the rhetoric, he also wants us to pull some
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  Speaker 1: trade levers to make the US pay hit back dollar
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  Speaker 1: for dollar. Do you think that that's an effective strategy.
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  Speaker 4: I think the premiere four does what he thinks is
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  Speaker 4: in Atario's best interest. I'm not going to take that
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  Speaker 4: away from him. But when I'm talking to my members,
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  Speaker 4: folks whose livelihoods depend on a functional cross border trade,
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  Speaker 4: some of whom you know, their major customer is the
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  Speaker 4: United States, escalation and ratcheting things up just makes things
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  Speaker 4: more expensive and more difficult for them. I think, in
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  Speaker 4: my opinion, we follow a path of trying to make
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  Speaker 4: progress incrementally, not to make waves, not to escalate, because
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  Speaker 4: we know this is a guy who hits back and
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  Speaker 4: he doesn't necessarily respond to market signals.
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  Speaker 2: In the United States. Americans that I talk to, they.
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  Speaker 4: All know tariffs are costing them money, but they don't
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  Speaker 4: feel like they're being heard in this issue either. So
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  Speaker 4: I am really hesitant about advice to to escalate, to
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  Speaker 4: ratchet it up, to hit America's heart. It feels like,
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  Speaker 4: you know, so it reacting in anger feels like the
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  Speaker 4: natural thing to do, but it's not necessarily the strategy.
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  Speaker 2: You want to follow.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: On Kuzma, you might have heard US Trade Representative Jamison
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  Speaker 1: Greer this week told Congress that he wants to have
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  Speaker 1: something between Canada and the US and then separately Mexico
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  Speaker 1: by the end of the year. And he's saying that
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  Speaker 1: there's actually a chance some of these more sensitive discussions,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: like on the rules of origin around autos, that could
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: extend into twenty twenty seven. Are you concerned when you
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: hear Greer talk about these relatively long timelines, saying that
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  Speaker 1: really it could be December or even twenty twenty seven
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  Speaker 1: before something comes together.
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  Speaker 4: Now, that's really what I expect for an incredibly complex agreement,
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  Speaker 4: hundreds thousands of pages of texts, really technical issues that
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  Speaker 4: you need to be speaking to industry with you need
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  Speaker 4: to be getting the technical input from sectors, from experts
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  Speaker 4: from all three countries. What worries me a lot more
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  Speaker 4: are people who say, oh, yeah, we'll have a deal
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  Speaker 4: by next week. You know, it's simply a matter of
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  Speaker 4: scratching from things down in the back of an envelope.
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  Speaker 4: I want to see them take the time that it
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  Speaker 4: requires to do a deal that is technically correct, that
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  Speaker 4: responds to the needs of business, and really does what
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  Speaker 4: we need in a comprehensive tripartheid agreement. And I think
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  Speaker 4: talking about it being a Canada US deal and US
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  Speaker 4: Mexico deal, that doesn't surprise me either.
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  Speaker 2: I don't think we have to get rid of the.
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  Speaker 4: Whole kusma in order to make progress in bilateral areas.
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  Speaker 4: But the trade issues for Mexico and the trade issues
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  Speaker 4: for Canada are different. There are different areas of focus
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  Speaker 4: and challenge and sensitivity.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah. On that note, in terms of the bilateral relationship,
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  Speaker 1: we see that the Mexicans just had another round negotiations
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  Speaker 1: with the USTR with Career this week. In fact, he
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  Speaker 1: personally met with the Mexican President, Claudia Shinbaum, and they've
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  Speaker 1: scheduled more talks for September, and yet nothing formal between
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  Speaker 1: Canada and the US to this point. What do you
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  Speaker 1: think is going on here? How do you interpret the
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: limited FaceTime between our two countries to this point.
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  Speaker 4: Okay, so the optimistic self says that the issues between
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  Speaker 4: US and Canada are not actually that great because they
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  Speaker 4: have very similar commercial and trade practices and economies, both
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  Speaker 4: advanced industrial economies. There aren't a ton of things that
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  Speaker 4: need to be reconciled, whereas between US and Mexico there's
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  Speaker 4: much more. So that's the optimistic side. It says, it's
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  Speaker 4: a smaller conversation. The less optimistic side says, maybe Canada
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  Speaker 4: is pushing too much.
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  Speaker 2: Stuff down the field.
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  Speaker 4: Maybe they are taking an old or outdated negotiating strategy
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  Speaker 4: where you know, nothing is decided until everything's decided, or
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  Speaker 4: delaying to.
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  Speaker 2: Soften up the US. This is not, in my opinion,
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  Speaker 2: a strong.
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  Speaker 4: Strategy for Canada to be taking right now. So I
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  Speaker 4: hope that they are engaged in productive conversations on whatever and.
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  Speaker 2: Wherever they can be talking.
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  Speaker 4: And again, our members coming from all parts of Canada,
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  Speaker 4: all sorts of sectors, are saying, hey, we'd like to
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  Speaker 4: be a part of the conversation when it comes to
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  Speaker 4: technical issues on construction and building products.
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  Speaker 2: And food products and.
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  Speaker 4: Agriculture and various types of services and manufacturers. They want
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  Speaker 4: to be part of that conversation and they want Ottawa
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  Speaker 4: to hear what they're saying.
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  Speaker 1: Well, let's see it there. Thank you so much to
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Laura Dawson from the Future Border's Coalition. Appreciate you coming on, Laura,
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  Speaker 1: You're very welcome.