Latest / Da Windy City Sports Podcast / Betting Bears with special guest Michael Bolling

Transcript

Betting Bears with special guest Michael Bolling · Da Windy City Sports Podcast

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_02]: Welcome to the Wendy city podcast.
• 0:02
  [SPEAKER_02]: You see that man right there.
• 0:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: That is Alex Shapiro.
• 0:05
  [SPEAKER_02]: I am kind of Davis.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_02]: And joining us today, fortunate for us.
• 0:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: We have Michael Bowling, follow him at Mike Mike Alex Bowling and apologize, Mike's going to join us to break down some gambling, of course with the bears.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: But of course, with football in general, and for me, being somewhat of a novice, just to kind of educate me on how to get the coin, the coins, it's Alex would say.
• 0:27
  [SPEAKER_02]: My car, you doing a day, man, thank you for joining us.
• 0:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm good, man.
• 0:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is awesome.
• 0:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: I appreciate you guys having me.
• 0:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is going to be a lot of fun.
• 0:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: We've had a lot of change as bear's fans.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is going to be a different kind of year if you're both as a fan and as a better.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I'm happy to join and talk through some of that.
• 0:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so I mean, let's start right there with the change, um, DJ Moore out of town, you know, things like Garrett Bradbury, Drudalman's out of Garrett Bradbury, from some of how you're betting this season, um, and like how do these changes affect your perspective when you're gambling on the bears?
• 1:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, it's going to be very interesting.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, I think the first thing that people should know is because Illinois is illegal sports betting
• 1:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're always going to demand a ton of handle right and handle means the amount of bets the amount of money that's coming in Chicago for better for worse.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think you guys could both attest to this.
• 1:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: We are a Homer city.
• 1:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're always going to root and bet on our teams.
• 1:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think before last year.
• 1:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: the handle on the overwind total was always way above and it had to move the line and the bears didn't hit their wind total.
• 1:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think they only hit their wind total in two of those 10 seasons or something in the last decade.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: So for better or for worse, Chicago will always shell out the cash on their teams.
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: So one thing to consider this year is a lot of these numbers are pretty inflated.
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're not going to allow for something to kind of fly under the radar.
• 2:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: So whereas last year the uncertainty of Ben Johnson in his first and will it mesh with Caleb Williams, what will we see from Roman Dune Zay, how good is Colson Lovelin?
• 2:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like all those questions are pretty much answered at this point.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think the numbers where they are expect that
• 2:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: if the number went total is nine and a half, it's going to be pretty close to that number by the time we get to the end of the season.
• 2:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the bears aren't creeping up on anyone and Vegas is very aware.
• 2:40
  [SPEAKER_02]: Okay, again, me being someone that isn't necessarily the biggest gambler, even though I want to get more proficient at it because I don't like throwing my money away.
• 2:48
  [SPEAKER_02]: When you mentioned the handle, Michael, and you mentioned Chicago or Illinois being a Homer state,
• 2:55
  [SPEAKER_02]: would it be better if I bet against my home team because there's more money since more people here are doing homework types when it comes to their knowledge?
• 3:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, it's certainly not the worst point of view.
• 3:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if you can separate it as a fan, some people can, some people can't.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm someone who's learned over the last handful of years that I can separate it early on.
• 3:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I was like,
• 3:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: over on the cubs, over on the bulls, over on, you know, and it's just like disappointment over and over.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think there is some value if you are betting against, especially with some of the season long props.
• 3:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think on a week-to-week basis, injury reports will matter how well the teams are playing, you know, who's playing well, who's playing bad.
• 3:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can find an edge on a week-to-week basis, but for the most part, the lines for the full
• 3:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: as it stands right now, like those things are gonna be pretty razor sharp.
• 3:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you can separate it, I do think there is value to look in the opposite direction.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now that would entail, you know, if you're putting 10, 15, 20 bucks, maybe not the biggest hit.
• 4:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're making big investments, you gotta think about how you're gonna feel rooting against your team once a week and trying to, trying to wheel in that bet.
• 4:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is a gift in a curse, but I do think there are some ways that there is some value in some of these season long crops as it pertains to the bears.
• 4:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: Are there any season long crops or futures that you really like for the bears or maybe the NFL at large?
• 4:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I'll start with the bears.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think the really interesting thing and what people probably don't, I don't want to say people don't realize because I don't want to like, you know,
• 4:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that people aren't smart enough to notice this, but as people like you guys as hosts and people will cover the team closely, you know what Ben Johnson wants to do.
• 4:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: He wants to run the ball first.
• 4:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think everyone loves to see the points on the board and the touchdowns to love Lynn and hopefully Roma Dune's day comes back healthy and
• 4:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: The emergence of Luther Verdun has been something that is talked about on a national level at this point, but one of the things that I really like in terms of season long is DeAndre Swift to go over 799 and a half rushing yards.
• 5:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he's going to get the ball a lot.
• 5:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think we will probably see a little more menunga than we did last year, so that's a little bit of a consideration.
• 5:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: But DeAndre Swift proved a question that came into last year, why did
• 5:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: you know Ben Johnson kind of shy away from him in Detroit.
• 5:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that I think that was a little overblown and we noticed that throughout the season.
• 5:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: He handed the ball to DeAndre Swift consistently every game.
• 5:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: He put him in the screen game.
• 5:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I like him to go over that 799 and a half because I think now given Caleb's second year on this system, this the run game I think is going to be even more important than it was last year, right?
• 5:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: The concepts that they run may not be all the same, but
• 5:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: you know, how multiple are they right like Ben Johnson talks about last year we had to run the routes that we had now there's routes on top of those routes and I think that's the same with the run game right like how can he scheme up the run to make sure that the bearers down schedule that Caleb is comfortable and I think DeAndre's with is going to be even bigger part of the offense in this year.
• 6:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: and look at the offseason again.
• 6:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: They two offseason in a row have not replaced the Andre Swift.
• 6:18
  [SPEAKER_01]: They haven't really had a real competition.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: And they had that third tight end where it's like, okay, you're gonna be in 13.
• 6:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: That indicates me like, oh yeah, sure you're gonna be multiple and like, run routes off of that.
• 6:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: But like, you got three guys.
• 6:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let's be a lot of jump-up packages.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm kind of with you and you don't think of the Andre Swift is one of like the premier playmakers on this offense because there's so many pass catchers.
• 6:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: But in terms of bread and butter, I think we agree, like they're gonna run the football,
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_01]: I kind of love the deand race with eight undergrushing cars.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, and I think another thing to think about in terms of just like how the bears want to operate, I think it's just very different for people like us, people of our age who, you know, we are, we've been taught that defense wins championships, and that's still true, but the the ethos of the bears forever is like have a really strong defense and have
• 7:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is completely flipped, right?
• 7:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like I think the defense is very solid, but I don't know that like they're the leaders of the clubhouse anymore.
• 7:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like this is a, let's race to 35, 40 points and see who can catch us situation.
• 7:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's really exciting.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the way that the league is gone with all of the touchdowns and all of the offense and the points scoring, like it felt like we were in the 20th century a couple years ago, and now we have very much moved into the 21st century, right?
• 7:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think about the bear's Niners game, a ton, right?
• 7:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like that was one of the most satisfying losses I've watched as a fan, because I was like, we have a guy that can take us there.
• 7:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, if we need to score 40 points, like we have a coach who's scheming it up and we have a quarterback that is gonna really put it on the line.
• 7:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I do think there's some value in Caleb Williams this year.
• 7:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think maybe there's a little bit of a sophomore, I know he's not a sophomore, but like sophomore year of Ben Johnson system.
• 8:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, and I think he's just going to take his game to the next level.
• 8:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he hears everything.
• 8:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's super hyper aware and, you know, we can talk about the elusive 4,000 yards if we want.
• 8:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think if you come down to it, I think his overall total is around 3600 and 50 yards, like, I would look at that over as well for passing.
• 8:27
  [SPEAKER_02]: Were there any, are there any other Caleb bets that you for or against?
• 8:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the touchdown number is at 24 and a half on draft Kings.
• 8:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's one that I'm like really digging deep on.
• 8:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think last year I was a little bit punch drunk in the fact that like he finally has a coach that's going to like wrap his arms around him and I went a little overboard last year.
• 8:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I was like he's going to throw over 30 touchdowns and 4,000 yards.
• 8:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think realistically.
• 8:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: 24 or 25 touchdowns feels very much like within the realm of possibility.
• 9:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's going to have to have a game where he has three or four or a couple games like that to kind of really set the pace form.
• 9:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that the value on Caleb is on the passing yards more than the touchdowns because I don't think people realize how tough the schedule is and I'm not sure they're going to
• 9:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they win and win late, like they did a lot last year, Caleb's going to be dropping back and throwing quite a bit late in games.
• 9:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he's got the weapons, right?
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: We saw the emergence of Colson Lovelin, despite what people may have said on draft night.
• 9:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: You could say the same about Luther Burton, who everyone was very surprised at the pick in the second round.
• 9:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: But those guys should be here for the next five to seven years, you know, all things considered.
• 9:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: It seems like they have this nucleus in place that everyone in the building is really proud of.
• 10:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: So whereas last year was a lot of throwing new faces, the familiarity I think is gonna be a big deal.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Caleb going over that 3650, I think is gonna be something that maybe seems fairly easy by the time we get to like week 15, week 16, we could be talking about, yeah, he's already there.
• 10:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And now we're chasing the ghost of Johnny Lou Jack
• 10:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: and throw over four pounds of yarn, so we'll see.
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: But those are the two props I think for Caleb that feel most aligned with success, right?
• 10:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if you wanna have something that you tire, you hit your wagon to for the full season, those are the two that I would identify.
• 10:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: You mentioned like picking these lines out and, you know, you, you like this one on draft kings.
• 10:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Can you just like take us behind the curtain when you're putting together your future props and shopping around what's your process like of, of shopping for these futures and also shopping for these lines?
• 10:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: 100%.
• 10:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think that's a very key thing, right?
• 11:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, if you don't price shop, you're just doing yourself a disservice because Fandle might
• 11:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: and draft kings might have it at plus 100, right?
• 11:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that's it.
• 11:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: It may not seem like a lot, but you're talking about spending $110 to win 100 versus spending 100 bucks to win 100 even, and you end up with 200.
• 11:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: So those things are super important.
• 11:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I use a website called Vegas Insider.
• 11:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: It basically gives you all of the lines from draft kings to fan dual, surca, fanatics.
• 11:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's tons of sites now.
• 11:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: They aggregate all those things.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Some of the futures props are hard to find on there, but on a week to week basis, if you're looking for lines for games, they'll even have different numbers, right?
• 11:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, draftings could have minus three, fan dual could have minus two and a half, you know, fanatics could have plus three and a half, they do that strategically, so people, you know, use their books versus others.
• 11:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, definitely price shopping is a huge deal, and especially for these futures lines, I haven't done a deep dive on
• 12:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: the line shopping yet, but they may have different numbers, right?
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So coals the mother and right now on draft Kings is receiving total is 799 and a half.
• 12:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I specifically remember this one, it was 749 and a half at Fandle.
• 12:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's where you could get some value, right?
• 12:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you end up in the middle of that and you have the 749, you're going to win on Fandle and on draft Kings, you would be extremely upset if you knew that fact.
• 12:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think shopping around is super important.
• 12:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: The last thing I'll say just as like advice, like don't rush, right?
• 12:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you see a number you like, take a look at the other sports books just in case, because more often than not, they are going to be very close.
• 12:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: But if you do find some value right, you don't have to get that extra 50 yards, that's always going to be something you'd prefer as a better.
• 12:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the value, the numbers are important and just line shopping in general is a great rule of thumb.
• 12:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you're a novice or you're just getting into it, like it takes a little bit of more effort.
• 13:05
  [SPEAKER_02]: What was that website again, please, for the novices?
• 13:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Vegas Insider, yeah, they've been around a while.
• 13:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Another one is like, VsNVSIN, they have a lot of lines listed.
• 13:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: I have a colleague that used to work there that they kind of upgraded their website recently to showcase all the many sports books and the value of the odds.
• 13:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: So those are the two that I use.
• 13:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think to that point, Vegas is just so, like, I remember 10 years ago, you could bet like Kyle Schwabber to hit a home run at like plus 500 and now it's like plus 210.
• 13:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like everything is so sharp these days.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you think you have an edge, please call me, please text me, because I'm like, no, please.
• 13:50
  [SPEAKER_02]: You mentioned coast and lovelin and loop of burden and when it comes to the bear's past catchers, what do you think is the best number or which way would you lean?
• 13:58
  [SPEAKER_02]: Because one of the discussions that Alex and I always have, is it going to be where you finally see Rome, even though coast and is the guy, or is it a situation where a young loop of burden may you serve him
• 14:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: with the balls that are be available since DJ Moore is no longer with the team.
• 14:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I mean, I think Luther is going to step into a role that he will fit pretty well.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was the number one at Mizzou.
• 14:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think he worked really hard to earn the trust of Ben Johnson and the offensive coordinators and the offensive side of the ball.
• 14:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: because early on, you know, Alex, you and I were working together and we're like, he made just not know the place, right?
• 14:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, he did not know the place.
• 14:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he didn't show me about it and he showed over time, like, okay, I got to get him my playbook and I love the the press conference when Ben Johnson talked about, you know, no block, no rock, like that I forget which game it was, but there was a game where he took
• 14:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: a block into the end zone and it sprung someone for a touchdown, right?
• 14:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: So like he's listening, he gets it.
• 14:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a little maturity that people may have thought he didn't have.
• 15:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: That I'm seeing just like as a fan that he's grown over the last couple years, right?
• 15:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like he's engaged now and he's in a different part of his life, right?
• 15:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like so the interesting thing about Luther and Colston specifically, and I'm not sure if, you know,
• 15:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not sure who Rome is after this injury.
• 15:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: I hope he's who we thought he would, who we could be a couple of years ago when we drafted him, but Colston and Rome have the same number on draft games.
• 15:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: They both have a receiving yards total of 799 and a half.
• 15:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: That is extremely interesting.
• 15:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just says like a fan, you know, some tie-dens do supersede.
• 15:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: the wide receivers on their team.
• 15:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Traimic Bride, unbelievable.
• 15:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: He was the leading receiver in Arizona.
• 15:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: George Kittles, a guy of East Health, he's probably going to have more yards, Travis Kelsey, right?
• 15:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like those guys, this is telling me that Vegas looks at Colson, Lovelin, as a top five, may be top three tight end in the entire league.
• 16:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if he has the same over undertotal as presumably your number one red receiver in Chicago, that's telling me a lot.
• 16:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Vegas expects the ball to go to 84 quite a bit.
• 16:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: We hope that players like Rome come back healthy and strong.
• 16:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Some of the things I've seen in training camp don't give me any reason to believe he won't be.
• 16:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: He had a little bit of a drops problem.
• 16:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: I know that was very much talked about by Ben Johnson.
• 16:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: We got to catch the ball.
• 16:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: But Luther didn't show any reason to not believe in his abilities.
• 16:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think Luther emerges this year as someone who's reliable.
• 16:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: out, but also give you the deep ball.
• 16:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Cole's in love with him.
• 16:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: If he has a similar season to what he had last year from the beginning, he's going to be talked about as a top five tight end in the league.
• 16:51
  [SPEAKER_02]: What round and fancy football would you draft?
• 16:53
  [SPEAKER_02]: Cole's in love with you there.
• 16:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Who?
• 16:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: As a, as a, I got to take off my bear's fan hat because bears fan hat is like man, I'm taking one in the second or third round.
• 17:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
• 17:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: I like having, I like having a tight end.
• 17:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's reliable and going to catch touchdowns that way.
• 17:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if you can have production from that spot, that's a bonus, right?
• 17:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like there's only a handful of guys in the league that you can rely on score touchdowns with that volume.
• 17:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: That was the thing about Tray
• 17:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: but he wasn't scoring touchdowns and then boom, last year was in the end zone of time, right?
• 17:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's interesting to me as a fantasy football fan, that's probably early, but as a meatball bear fan, like, I kind of wish he's on my team.
• 17:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, I might take him early.
• 17:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: I might reach for 84.
• 17:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
• 17:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, we've talked about like all of this, rational, reasonable, well thought out stuff.
• 17:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Do you got like a super nuke for me that you're just like whatever let's put a little sprinkle and pray yeah it's not like the craziest value But I was digging on the draft king site this morning and there's a bet how many wins will the bears have in their first five games so I went look at the schedule They open with the panthers on the road.
• 18:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: They play the Vikings at home.
• 18:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: They play the Eagles at home.
• 18:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: They play the Jets at home, and then they hit the road to play the Packers
• 18:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's three wins in there.
• 18:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think they win the opener.
• 18:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you coin flip, I mean, I think they beat the jets, the jets are, you know, the jets, right?
• 18:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, who knows?
• 18:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: But Vikings, Eagles, and Panthers, if they could win one of those games, I don't think they win them all, obviously.
• 18:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: But it's plus 160.
• 18:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if you have, let's say you've been a good citizen and you saved your tax return and you had some extra cash, and you want to put it on something like that.
• 18:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: is what I would put it on.
• 18:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't see a situation unless there's a crazy injury, which you have to, you know, you have to bake that in your decision process, right?
• 18:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if somebody gets hurt, you know, they're not going to give you any grace on the sportsbook.
• 18:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: Your money is already spent, but if all things are level, I think they start this season at least three and two.
• 19:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: And
• 19:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: For that market specifically, if they win four games, you're kind of screwed too.
• 19:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: So if there is better than you expect, you don't get the win because you have to hand it exactly.
• 19:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I do think that's an exact three, three wins and five games.
• 19:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Three wins and five games and yeah, if they surprise, great.
• 19:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that the most important thing is like a bear's fan specifically is, and Alex, you and I talked about this a lot in the newsroom, right?
• 19:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like there were days where I was like,
• 19:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well over my skis like there go out of the zipper bowl and then I needed someone like you to be like, well, I just not totally sure and the schedule scares me more than anything, right?
• 19:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think this is a season where they could have a worse record, but be a better football team and it's like it pains me to say it, but they're going to play so many very, very good playoff ready teams that
• 19:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, the the the one I go back to is the game in Vegas like I was in the building and you know was to straw right like I'm like I don't think they're going to win and then they get a block field goal Josh Blackwell saves the day right you can't count on that the following season right like that's not something you can hang your head on you love to see them you know bow up when when the rubber meets the road and pull out some of those wins that we hadn't in years pass but that doesn't mean
• 20:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: The cardiac bears aren't going to pull off seven last minute wins again, right?
• 20:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like you just can't put your, you can't put all your stock in that.
• 20:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I do think they revert a little bit closer to the mean, but that might mean their win 10 games and still make the playoffs, right?
• 20:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like there's a lot of ways to have success this season and I do think they will have success, but it may not necessarily translate to wins and losses.
• 20:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I would be very careful with the win total.
• 20:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I've looked at it.
• 20:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's nine and a half at even money.
• 20:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Vegas invitation for them to win nine games and take everybody's cash.
• 21:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like we've seen it so many years.
• 21:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: So be very careful.
• 21:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the more prudent bet over eight and a half, let them get to nine wins.
• 21:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: Not have to get to that 10.
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's only minus 175.
• 21:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: So 175 bucks bet wins you a hundred bucks.
• 21:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I think everybody would be happy with that.
• 21:17
  [SPEAKER_02]: I don't know if you've checked it out yet, but if you have any thoughts on the wins and lost us for the rest of the teams,
• 21:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, I have actually it's it's really interesting.
• 21:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think what we're talking about here is is a division that I think is going to be very competitive and it has been for the last couple years.
• 21:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's nice that the bears have kind of stepped into it, but.
• 21:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: person went a ton of division games, actually, you know, like it wasn't like they set the kind of signal with on fire.
• 21:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: They beat the teams that they were supposed to beat.
• 21:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: They snuck out a couple wins and they ended up winning the division, but like they lost two to the lines.
• 21:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: They happened to beat the packers, right?
• 21:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like the Vikings, they lost the first game of the season and everyone was like, here we go again.
• 22:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: I could see a scenario where like,
• 22:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: If they lose to the Vikings and the Packers and that first stretch, they're going to be a pretty sizable hole in the division right off the back, right?
• 22:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like I think it is, it is going to be very competitive.
• 22:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know who the Minnesota Vikings are.
• 22:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: They have two quarterbacks, which means they have none.
• 22:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the lions are in transition, right?
• 22:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like they Jared Goff is a little longer in the tooth.
• 22:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: such a weapon, but he does, you know, it's not Sonic and Knuckles anymore, like Sonic is on an island by himself.
• 22:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, is he going to be the bell cow?
• 22:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, they're going to project that way, but will he have the same production?
• 22:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, when he can't stand over on the sideline and, you know, catches breath.
• 22:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he needs to take another rep, right?
• 22:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like so, I think the division might be a little more competitive than it had been in years past.
• 22:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Honestly with the packers right like I don't have normally good things to say about them and I won't start now but the fact that Michael Parsons isn't going to be healthy to start the season as a huge blow to them right like.
• 23:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: They brought them in to be the disruptor and you know obviously if he's on the field they always have a chance to dominate the defensive side of the ball just because how prolific he is on that in that in their defense.
• 23:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: but with him not being ready to potentially disember, that, you know, the packers could end up in a hole early too.
• 23:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think the division is going to be a little more competitive.
• 23:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if they'll be like the best division in football.
• 23:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obviously the NFC West is loaded at this point.
• 23:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: I can't even believe there's like rumors of Aaron Donald coming out of retirement.
• 23:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like as soon as we get something nice, it's like everybody wanna come back and tell him like, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
• 23:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's got years of nugget on Aaron Donald, he has the third best odds to win come back player of the year.
• 23:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: He hasn't even signed a contract yet.
• 24:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's like this is crazy talk.
• 24:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, the NFC is going to be a really interesting watch this year.
• 24:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think there's a lot of really, really good teams.
• 24:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think we noticed in the playoffs against the Rams, like there were one play away from winning that game and who knows, right?
• 24:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: So they're close.
• 24:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: However, everyone that was good last year was gonna be good again, and they bloated up.
• 24:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it's gonna be an interesting watch.
• 24:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: I hope that my best case scenario the bears figure out a way to win the division.
• 24:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: With 10 wins would be fine.
• 24:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even if it's nine wins, I don't care.
• 24:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like I think they need to feel good about taking a stranglehold on this division.
• 24:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like Ryan Polset, like we want to take the North and not give it back.
• 24:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: You took it now you got to keep it right like I think that's got to be their main driving force and the thing about Ben Johnson to me is is fascinating right like he is such a on task person he is so detail oriented I think the thing I've loved most about the off season is everyone to a man and maybe they were beat over the head with it, but they're like we're not talking about last season anymore that's over
• 25:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like that is such an important quality to kind of permeate throughout that locker room.
• 25:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like we haven't done anything yet.
• 25:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: We won the division, we set a goal, we hit it, we did not win the Super Bowl, and that was our second goal.
• 25:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: And they are back to the drawing board, and I think there are good things in store for this team going forward.
• 25:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't necessarily believe that it has to be another 11, 12 plus one season to have a good year for bare fans.
• 25:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: amazing.
• 25:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: All right, last one from me bowling.
• 25:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Do you have any just like general getting into betting and vice in case any of our listeners out there are like you know what that the Andre Swift probably sounds real good.
• 25:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: Let me get in.
• 25:48
  [SPEAKER_01]: So just like some intro beginner stuff for people who were just trying to get their toes wet.
• 25:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, for sure.
• 25:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think the biggest most important thing is just like don't bet outside of your means, right?
• 25:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like there's so much
• 26:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: social media ads, every other commercial during the World Cup has been calcium polymarked, and draft kings, and prize picks, right, like it's everywhere, and we know it.
• 26:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the most important thing is just stay within your means, right, like this is not a long-term strategy.
• 26:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: No one has ever made a living, you know, betting on sports and gambling.
• 26:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, the reason why Vegas is so bright and beautiful is because people have just been giving their money away for 70, 80, 90 years, right?
• 26:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: long-term strategies.
• 26:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: I always tell people like, my unit size is 10, 15 bucks.
• 26:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Max is usually $50.
• 26:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't really go outside of that because the system is rigged for you to lose.
• 26:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think the games are rigged.
• 26:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think any.
• 26:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm not a conspiracy theorist, but
• 26:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: Vegas is extremely smart, they know more about what they're doing than you do at home with, you know, then we do at home with, you know, just our computers and what we think up here.
• 27:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, but within your means and make sure it's something you're doing for fun, right?
• 27:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, there's so much out there that can put you in a really dark and deep hole in a place you don't want to be and, you know, everyone has someone who has heard of someone who has gotten way too deep in
• 27:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: The thing that I like most about it is everything's above board, right?
• 27:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like if you're putting your money into draft gangs, like it's linked to your bank account, you're making those decisions, you're long gone other days.
• 27:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I don't want to say long gone because they may not be.
• 27:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: But very much, very less than before because before you were betting with people and bookies and you know, that gets dangerous.
• 27:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: So,
• 27:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: A lot of danger involved with this, you know, got to be rational, got to know when to quit.
• 27:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: And if you're doing it for fun, just trying to win a couple bucks with your buddies, like I'll always encourage people to do stuff like that.
• 27:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: But when you start to try and pay the rent with your, uh, with your bets, that's when you get in trouble, right?
• 28:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, so be conscious of, you know, staying consistent, betting what you can afford to play with, right?
• 28:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, you know, it's buying a lottery ticket at the grocery store,
• 28:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: you know, a pick five or whatever it is, right?
• 28:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like everyone has their vices, so to say, but as long as you're being responsible and and betting within your means, I think it's something that you can use to just have some fun and watch the games.
• 28:28
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's just keep it taken everything from the mob.
• 28:30
  [SPEAKER_02]: First of all, it's Vegas, as you mentioned.
• 28:32
  [SPEAKER_02]: Now that's gamble, alcohol, your prohibition.
• 28:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: Um, real quick, I love the fact that you ended with a really good morning about the perils of betting because that's perfectly why I don't do it because these people know what they're doing and I don't want to donate my money to them.
• 28:49
  [SPEAKER_02]: My son last year, he's 17 now, his friends are betting and he wanted to bet and I told him no because this can be worse than drugs.
• 28:57
  [SPEAKER_02]: And the last thing I want you to do is to get addicted to this while you're a high school or whatever.
• 29:03
  [SPEAKER_02]: On a better note though, I want to get to know you a little bit of friend of this show.
• 29:07
  [SPEAKER_02]: I was with him.
• 29:09
  [SPEAKER_02]: ESPN's Jay Hood, Radio and Warner Jay Hood.
• 29:11
  [SPEAKER_02]: You always talk to me about getting into sports betting.
• 29:14
  [SPEAKER_02]: Because there's not a lot of us as far as brothers or black people.
• 29:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: It's a challenge, this is too.
• 29:20
  [SPEAKER_02]: What got you into?
• 29:21
  [SPEAKER_02]: How did you get into betting?
• 29:23
  [SPEAKER_02]: And how did you grow in proficiency when it comes to betting?
• 29:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, so I obviously, I mean, I guess not obviously, but I grew up in a in a household where my dad liked to bet on horses.
• 29:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: We would go to Hawthorne racetrack all the time.
• 29:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like, I tell people I knew how to, you know, pick a track effective before I knew my multiplication tables.
• 29:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's like not necessarily a great thing, but I ended up OK.
• 29:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: But no, I, you know, I was kind of around it early.
• 29:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think my dad did a really good job of like,
• 29:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, cautioning us to the perils of it.
• 29:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: It wasn't something that was like pushed upon us.
• 29:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: But when you're around it, you start to like, you know, I loved it that on horses around the Kentucky Derby around the Belmont Stakes, like that's something.
• 30:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: That was a bond that I shared with my dad.
• 30:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I think I got into it because as a fan, I always love like adding a little extra excitement.
• 30:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Not even necessarily to like our hometown teams, but
• 30:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, I was working as a PA at, you know, a place like stadium and then I worked at Bleacher Report, which was much more like bedding focused, but it always gave me a little reason to like get a little more excited on the stuff I was covering, right?
• 30:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like it, you know, add a $5 bet to someone to hit a home run in a game, that's out of town.
• 30:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, watching, you know, I got to cover the pirates and the diamond backs and like who even cares about that game.
• 30:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: But if I have five bucks on,
• 30:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Someone in that game to potentially hit a home run four times in that game, I'm going to get a little out of excitement, right?
• 30:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, and I'm very glad you mentioned, you know, they're not being a ton of people that look like you and I in this industry.
• 30:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because I do think there's a little bit of there's just a little more risk in peril involved and I don't know that
• 31:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: A ton of people are aware of how strong the bad side of this could be.
• 31:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I think any time I hop on a podcast or I get to talk to folks a little younger than me, you know, I do think there's a lot of fun that can be had, but I think it's so important to just discuss the elephant in the room, right?
• 31:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't get addicted to this stuff, you know, try and continue to bet within your means because at the end of the day, like you're going to end up on an island alone and you
• 31:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: family members, significant others, friends, like it could lead to some pretty bad stuff.
• 31:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: So as long as it's something that, a clear-minded, we're just doing this to have a little fun.
• 31:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think that that's the perspective you have to have.
• 31:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I've honestly been super proud of being someone who's worked in this industry and been kind of for lack of better word, like a leader in the space with some of the roles I'd done in the past, because I want to be able to talk to people who look like you and I and anyone, really,
• 32:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: about about this subject very seriously, right?
• 32:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like this isn't a game.
• 32:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: This isn't something that people aren't going to, you may get lucky and hit something huge.
• 32:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: And even then, like you almost have to be more cautious after you win, right?
• 32:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: One of the things that I try and tell people all the time is like, just because you won 200 bucks doesn't mean you need to start betting a hundred dollars on stuff, right?
• 32:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: You got to stay consistent because that's how people lose and they dig themselves into holes.
• 32:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I appreciate you bringing that up because it is really important to kind of just give people a sense of why.
• 32:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: And my wise directly linked to the relationship by I don't my father, right?
• 32:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like we would go to the horse track and I would watch him sometimes win and maybe get a new bat at sports authority back in the day and then sometimes he would lose.
• 32:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: And it was like, yeah, you can't really get it.
• 32:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: This time around, but we'll see him on next time.
• 33:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's kind of the mindset that I've always operated in and, you know, I think when you start to look at the thing like, yeah, if I win, you know, $1,400, I could cover half of the rent like then it gets a little scary right you're depending on it where as you should be thinking about it as like if I went in extra couple bucks, it's a it's a good story that I can kind of celebrate with my friends and keep a pushing.
• 33:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: All right, everybody, make sure you please make sure you follow him at Mike Alex Bowling Mike you got to come back We got to do this some more Alex thanks for bringing him on this was great to meet him Got to meet you face to face on place.
• 33:36
  [SPEAKER_02]: We got we got to get together to three of us and do something I love to you Go ahead.
• 33:43
  [SPEAKER_02]: He's back doing his thing.
• 33:44
  [SPEAKER_02]: All right, so follow him to get your numbers.