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Shapiroworld by Strictly Business · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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It's Monday, so it's time for Shapiro World with David Shapiro from Sassfin
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Securities, currently in Manhattan.
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David, the end of the quarter and the end of the half year is coming.
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I think tomorrow is the last day, so there'll be some activity.
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But the news flow is fairly sparse and people are waiting for non-farm payrolls,
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I think, on Friday.
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People are going away.
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I was just observing what's been happening here.
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And you can see
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people coming down the elevator with bags and off away.
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They're coming down ready to go.
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All the kids have gone to camp.
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Parents will be following.
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So I think we're in that kind of climate where people don't really care.
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I don't think they're interested in the market.
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The weather's been crazy.
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The World Cup is distractive.
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It's also in the height of the baseball season.
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It's not a sport that I follow very closely.
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But, yeah, it's very difficult to get excited in this kind of weather and
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environment.
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It's December, you know, in the southern hemisphere point of view.
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It's the same way as we would feel in December and say, okay, let's go on
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holiday, take our mind off the market and so on.
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It's been a lot.
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I'm jotting down everything.
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I'm still reading and I'm trying to make a lot of sense about the politics.
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I think just to put it in context, I don't think the market cares about politics, to
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be honest.
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It's more from my own personal understanding.
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But from a broader perspective, I don't think the market doesn't give a damn.
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But you're fearful that the people that are getting elected I did.
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are, they're to the left, they go under the umbrella of the Democrats, but really,
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they're more leaning towards the
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Mamdani type of Democrats, i.e.
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a socialist stroke Marxist in some cases.
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That's, and that's what I'm finding very interesting is, well, how does this play
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out?
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And I'm trying to read as much as I can, in terms of what this means, because
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that When you hear the demonstrators, they're now saying, you know, you're next,
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And that you're
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next is Hakim Jeffries, who's the leader of the Democrats in the House, you know,
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not in the Senate.
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That's Chuck Schumer.
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But I mean, you know, he's also earmarked to go, you know, I mean, from these
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people, although we talk about the House.
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So this whole, you know, it's very worrying.
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And I'll tell you where it's worrying from the...
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From a Democrat's point of view, and I'm trying to get a feel for this, because
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this is very left-leaning.
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You know, this is, there's been, they've, if you're a
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landlord in New York.
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Yes.
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And one of these landlords who's had a rent control building.
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Now, rent control, I can't go into the details of it because I've still got to
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learn myself.
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But what it really means is that each year there'd be a rent control board and they
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would say, okay, you can raise rents by three,
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four, five.
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percent whatever it is you know according to a whole lot of areas and now mangani
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has gone and has won
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um two year freeze on rent now that means and it's more or less a lot of people own
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you know
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smaller units and that which they rent out now it doesn't apply to all rentals but it
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does apply to a
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huge number you know i think over two million odd now if you can't raise rents
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um
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The plumber still charges what he charged.
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You know, all the other costs go up, but you can't recover.
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Now, remember, a lot of landlords have got mortgages against this.
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So you can't, you know, you can't offset any of the increase in costs and increase
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in interest rates against this.
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So there's a massive outcry.
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But, you know, at the bottom end of the market, they see this as a major victory.
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But what happens, Lindsay?
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You don't have to be… a PhD in economics or in business to understand if you can't
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afford
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to keep maintain the lift or the you know the outside or the whatever of course the
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quality
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of the buildings go and and you know things start to fall apart so that's the
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kind of things that that I'm going
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into and worrying do you think it might do you think that when it gets to voting day
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which is 128 days away I think it is.
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Do you think that people will say...
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Well, we've got the Republicans and Trump's gone and it may be J.D.
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Vance or it may be Marco Rubio.
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We don't know.
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But we'd rather have them.
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We'd rather know.
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We'd rather have the devil we know than these.
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What is what they're being portrayed as, i.e.
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left wing radical lunatics.
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That's Trump's words, not mine.
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But when it comes to putting your ex on the ballot paper.
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It's either something you know or these people that you don't really know what
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they're doing.
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And it's very un-American to do the things that you've just described that the mayor
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of New York is doing.
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Yeah, exactly.
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Now, where the worry comes, the New York Democrats, what they call the socialists,
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social Democrats, Bernie Sanders, you've mentioned Corbyn, the Labour Party, that
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very extreme left, screw the rich.
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It's really an anti-rich party.
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And it's made up of a lot of immigrants or families of immigrants and they're people
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who are battling
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at the low end of the market.
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I don't mean they're tramps or they're not working, but affordability is a big issue.
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But where are the warriors now?
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Where do the Democrats, against the background that you said, you've got a
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weakened Trump, almost could be
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a lame duck president.
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Where you've got that, where will the middle vote?
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And there's a massive middle ground, and that's where the Democrats or the more
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centre
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Democrats are worried about.
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People vote with their pocket, David.
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We know that.
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They like a personality.
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They like a white chap with lots of hair and that sort of thing because they think
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that's very American,
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and they go for that sort of figure.
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But at the end of the day, it's their pocket that people...
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vote with.
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And there's a fund manager, a person, I won't say friend, somebody that I've
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interviewed over a period
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of 15 years now lives in Manhattan.
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He said, New York doesn't give a stuff about this or about that.
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They vote with money.
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If they're making money, they don't care.
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And New York is that sort of city.
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So if there's money being taken away from them.
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by some of the activities that you've just described earlier on, then they'll say
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stuff, it will vote for someone else.
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Yeah, that's where the worry is.
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I think while they're celebrating at the moment, and I promise you, the quality of
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the people coming in is
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just unbelievable.
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You know, this is your high school, you know, they have the same kind of dogma.
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or talk as the leader of the student union or something like that.
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Yes, exactly.
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That's what I was looking for, something like this, you know.
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brother, brother, you know, tax the rich and all of those kind of things.
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But that's where the worry is with the Democratic Party that the middle voter
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might start
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shifting towards the right and against them.
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In other words, putting the chance of the Democrats getting the House which is a
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very marginal
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four or five seats only, you know, they only have to swing that, then they will
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lose the house.
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And the concern is in those, you know, the swing states, I think, you know, which
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could be Michigan,
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and I don't know which swing states they are, Pennsylvania, so there are a few
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outside of New York.
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So that's where their concern is.
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How do they temper this down?
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How do you really think that Bernie Sanders is...
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Is the right kind of person to lead America?
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You know, I don't think so.
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So that's where I find the politics very interesting.
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While Mandani is walking around with his Colgate smile and basking in the sun and
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people are
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kumbaya-ing down in Washington Square, I think deep down
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there are concerns about where this movement's going.
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But anyway, as you say, the markets don't seem to worry too much about it.
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But worry they might.
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If it gets too extreme, David, if it becomes too extreme, then suddenly the
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companies that are making the market what it is
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today suddenly have a look and say, well, this is not… You must follow Bill Ackman.
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Bill Ackman, I follow him on X now and that, and he always gives a sensible
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scenario.
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He paints the pictures of what this means.
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He's not a fan of Mondawney.
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And he's quite level-headed.
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I would have always called him a Democrat.
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But the last few years, because of the policies and that he's swung,
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I would say he's still the centrist.
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But at this stage, he's probably more of a Trump fan than he is of a Mondani fan.
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Gosh, what a choice to make, actually.
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I mean, you've got some lunatic.
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You know, he talks about Trump derangement syndrome, and he criticizes people.
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because they obsess over him.
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But he's got Obama derangement syndrome.
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He is tweeting at 3 o'clock this morning about, and now he calls him Obama.
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He's replaced the A with the U, just like he's gone for Democrats instead of
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Democrats.
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He's completely obsessed.
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He said, Obama couldn't have done this, and look what I've done, et cetera.
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He's under enormous pressure.
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He's lashing out because he's under pressure.
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because his own party is forsaking him.
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And they're not quite sure whether to associate with him as they go into the
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midterms because they're not sure how long he's going to
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last and what comes after that.
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So I think you've got it on both sides.
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You know what I mean?
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You've got both sides under a lot of pressure trying to forge their way forward
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and kind of reposition
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themselves.
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But it's politics.
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And it makes news.
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Yeah, and you're going into it deeply.
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I mean, I always ask the question of you on a Monday, what did you read over the
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weekend?
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And you've already indicated it's probably politics rather than this spreadsheet of
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an AI company.
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Well, it's been football as well, but I mean, it's beside the point.
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We'll come to that.
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It's interesting, yeah.
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We're a couple of days away from July, which will be the beginning of the second
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half of the year.
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Every time we get to that point, everyone says, oh, goodness me, didn't it go
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quickly?
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It hasn't gone quickly.
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It's gone the same.
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And it's been an eventful one.
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This is going to be a very interesting six months ahead of us, David.
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Is the bubble going to burst?
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I mean, people like me, I sent you that picture, didn't I, of my Starlink
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satellite that's arrived.
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And I've stuck that on the roof.
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And I'm now part of the AI bubble.
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I'm funding this thing by buying.
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by buying Elon Musk's Starlink service, which is very good.
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But seriously, do you think it can go on?
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The bubble.
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What we've seen.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Oh, yeah.
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Oh, yes, no doubt.
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We saw a sell-off in the last week, which I thought was positioning ahead of the
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holiday season more than
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abandoning the strategy or the theme.
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I still think it's going to grow, and more and more companies are going to be keen.
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doing deals and positioning themselves, making sure that they're securing the
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future.
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So it'll continue to be the driving theme.
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I don't see any slowdown.
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If you go to companies like ASML and NVIDIA and TSM and all of those, they're
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not slowing
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down in any kind of way.
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Their shares are not expensive.
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Their shares have come back quite dramatically as...
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as investors have, when I say repositioned themselves, whatever, however you want to
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put it.
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So the concern about whether this is, you know,
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whether they can continue sustainable, there's no suggestion that it can't
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continue for a good number
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of years.
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And I think, therefore, you will see another bout of buying coming in soon.
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I see the markets are up, picking up today after last week's sell-off.
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So yes.
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You know, Lindsay, I like to keep open-minded and I keep saying, okay,
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if I sell, what do I buy?
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You know, what else is there for me to buy?
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You know, outside of this theme, and I can't find anything that's really
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compelling.
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You know, don't send me to Asia, don't send me to Europe, you know what I mean?
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Don't send me to Africa or South America or anything, you know.
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I haven't got an appetite for those, but I'm saying where else can I become
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involved?
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And another factor as well, which is quite interesting for us to try and deliberate
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and understand, is that the safe
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havens have gone south.
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Yes, well, that's what I was coming to.
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And I had a chat this morning with a chap in London, a fund manager, and we were
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talking about the dollar.
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Now, the dollar last year was everyone's favorite asset class.
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They said the dollar is going to do this.
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It's going to be debased.
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The debasement trade will become a serious option for fund managers.
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And now I look at the dollar index and it's trading at 101.
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And it's actually up in the last 52 weeks.
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It's up four and a quarter percent, the dollar.
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And what will be the impact?
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Well, we know what the impact will be.
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Gold's back down at nearly 4,000 again.
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We've got Sir...
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Bitcoin below 60,000 and the low of the year was just above 58,000.
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So these are being the dollar is going strong and it's the dollar-based assets
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that are being debased.
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I fear for gold and for Bitcoin.
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Me too.
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You said it.
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You said it a couple of months ago.
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And I think that's only going to continue.
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So meaning that I think there's There's no reason to buy, you know what I mean?
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There's no reason to buy gold or platinum or anything like that.
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Oil has been the big story, but look where oil prices are.
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You know, they've come all the way back.
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If anything, they're only at a slight premium to where they were before.
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the war started.
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Yes.
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And I think that's been the big story.
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And it's been a volatile story and may continue now with a few skirmishes.
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But, I mean, to a large extent, that story's been broken.
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So where do you go?
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You know, you still want to buy gold?
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You know, that's a story that does exactly.
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And historically, it's always done exactly as it did now.
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Everybody gets very excited about it.
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They push it all the way up to over 5,000.
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And then you abandon it because you need more and more people to keep buying it.
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And it doesn't work that way because there's no earnings.
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And also the background changes.
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So I think this can reverse all the way back.
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Where's Bitcoin now having been?
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59,200.
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Gold is just about to break 4,000 as we speak.
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It's 4,002.
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It looks like some selling coming in.
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4,001 now.
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It's all over the place.
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David, what was I going to ask you?
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this is on a personal level, a user of AI level.
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Do you find that almost every day when you use AI, artificial intelligence, whichever
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platform you use, does it astound you
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still?
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Because every day when I ask a question, I try and ask a more difficult question, and
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it comes up with the most extraordinary answers.
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And if I don't get it on the one, if I don't get it on Claude, I'll go to Grok.
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If I don't get it on Grok, I'll go to ChatGPT and then to DeepSeek.
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It's just incredible, the detail.
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Yeah.
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You've got to be in a position to know how to drive it.
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You can't put a five-year-old in a motor car and drive.
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You've got to know the basics in it.
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And I think if you are like that, if you know the right questions and to
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deliberate, for example,
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now that's where I'm going to go and I'm going to start interrogating the various
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AI.
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platforms and I start asking, okay, you know, where does this go?
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What are people thinking?
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What's the thinking on, you know, and from all of it, rather than going into Google
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or trying to find a
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McKinsey report or something like that, I'm saying, no, I don't want to hear them.
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Let's see, let's let you interrogate the entire internet system, you know,
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internet, and you give me the answers and
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that around that.
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I'm asking the questions.
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Let me see your answers.
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And from that, I think you will begin to shape an understanding of what's
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happening.
17:56
And that's where I find it intriguing and compelling.
18:03
Compelling.
18:03
If I want to know about a company, yes, you've got to keep at it all the time.
18:09
And I'm using it at a very basic level.
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But for other people that are far more accomplished than I am and know how to use
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it, I mean,
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they put in...
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They put reports in there.
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As I mentioned to you before, I have an advocate friend who says that it saved him
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days in terms of putting all the information that he gets on a case into a
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coherent
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report that he can present or a statement.
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Opinion, sorry, that's what I'm thinking about.
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Yes.
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And that makes sense because it gets rid of the rubbish or the… or the repetition,
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you know, and
18:50
then it also phrases it.
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Yes, you go back and edit it, you know, so I don't like the way you use certain words
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and everything.
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But, you know, from his point of view, he's got an editor, which is the same as
19:01
having a and so these are the kind
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of things at our very low level.
19:05
But if you're a scientist or anything else, I can imagine what you do or you
19:09
want to code something.
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I'm still trying to do that, you know.
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I still want to say, okay, let me get into my client.
19:15
Did you just use the free service or have you got a subscription to each other?
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In fact, the free service I like quite a lot is Copilot.
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I don't know if it is free.
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I find that quite interesting, but I do subscribe to AI Pro, which is ChatGPT up
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there.
19:32
I find them a bit long-winded and flouncy and everything, but you can get where you
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want to
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get.
19:39
What I want to do is see if I can load client accounts.
19:44
And from that point of view, I'm able to, you know what I mean, analyze them in a
19:51
much
19:51
greater way.
19:52
At the moment, I go through a client's account one by one saying, oh, they've got
19:55
too much of this or too much.
19:57
You know, in other words, I need some of this.
19:59
So I want to, that's where I want to start going to now, which I don't think is going
20:03
to be a big ask, you know, and say,
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okay, here are a couple of portfolios.
20:10
Tell me.
20:12
where they're out of context, what I should do, or something like that, you
20:14
know.
20:15
Do you have to give them guidelines and say that you mustn't have more than 10% of
20:18
one particular security or 20% of one
20:22
whole asset class?
20:23
You have to give them those guidelines, don't you?
20:25
Well, I might ask them first, what do you think, you know, relative to the market,
20:30
and then, but
20:32
I've got to work out that.
20:33
You know what I mean?
20:34
I've got to work out those things.
20:36
But it's compelling.
20:39
I'm a big advocate.
20:43
I think that I'm not scared of it.
20:45
I'm not scared of it in any way.
20:46
I think that it's going to save us
20:52
a lot of time, a lot of people.
20:54
Yes, the problem now is if you're a young person, you've got to be aware of this.
20:59
You can't say, yeah, I'm going to varsity.
21:02
I'm going to get a BSc degree.
21:04
Forget about it.
21:06
you've got to be very sharp.
21:09
You can get a degree as much as you like.
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It's what you do with it afterwards.
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I mean, it's the job.
21:14
You've got to choose a career that is not going to be stuffed up at certain levels
21:18
by AI.
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In other words, the job that you think you want to go to is going to be redundant by
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the time you've passed your degree in three, four years' time,
21:26
whatever it is.
21:27
That is the problem that young people have.
21:29
I'm so glad I'm not young in some ways.
21:31
No, no.
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I don't know.
21:35
David, nothing's changed, in other words.
21:39
Every week, it's just hold on to what you've got, which is great.
21:43
That's my view.
21:44
That's my view.
21:45
I think we've spoken about the issues, the oil price, AI, gold and platinum and all
21:51
those.
21:53
I still think the inflation, WASH, we've discussed that.
21:56
There's no response.
21:58
I mean, at the moment, I think the US economy is holding well.
22:00
So against that background, I don't think you have to do anything dramatic.
22:05
Okay, so stay with it until otherwise advised.
22:11
Football now.
22:12
I was so disappointed last night when Bafana Bafana lost in the 92nd minute, two
22:18
minutes into
22:19
stoppage time, because I thought that eventually Canada will get frustrated
22:26
because
22:27
they were like tigers in defence, Bafana Bafana.
22:30
They did very well indeed.
22:32
And on the break, occasionally they looked...
22:35
They look dangerous, but then that last really thing, I was really deflated last
22:39
night, I have to tell you.
22:42
No, I wished for them.
22:45
I had a long chat and I sent you the articles that my son, who's a big analyst
22:51
on, he loves his
22:52
football, he loves his soccer.
22:53
You know what I mean?
22:55
He loves his sport.
22:56
And I had a discussion with him and he said he wrote the article Why England
23:02
Won't Win.
23:03
the World Cup.
23:04
Well, that's easy.
23:04
And he made a point.
23:06
Yeah, I know.
23:06
But he made a very good point about the fact that, you know, in England
23:13
you've got six or what, seven cups, you know, I mean, sorry, big clubs.
23:18
Yes.
23:18
And therefore the people at each of the clubs never play with each other.
23:22
And the one strength that we saw in Bafana was that a lot of people are from
23:28
Sundance.
23:29
So they know each other.
23:31
They can think in sync.
23:32
Yes.
23:33
And he says, you know, according to, as I saw my son's theories, and I've
23:39
forgotten his background, Darwin, you know, who's got this theory that you need
23:44
in order to win, he wants to bring back the glory
23:46
days for Australia.
23:48
And he says, but you've got to get a team that's played together, that understand
23:51
each other.
23:52
And he says one of the reasons England, you know, won't win is that they're all
23:55
over the place.
23:56
You know, Lindsay, to give you an example, I looked at Saka, you know.
24:01
Saka works together with Ben White.
24:03
The Arsenal winger, for anyone that doesn't know.
24:05
Bukaya Saka, yes.
24:06
And Odegaard, yeah.
24:07
Bukaya Saka works with Odegaard.
24:10
He works with Ben White, you know, all around him.
24:12
They understand his movements, and therefore that brings out the best in him.
24:16
The English team had Konsa as the right back, who's a centre-back, way back there.
24:23
And also the midfield wasn't there to help Saka.
24:26
So when he got the ball, he looked around and he had three.
24:30
three people coming for him.
24:33
And that's the difference, you know, that where you understand who you're playing
24:37
with, where you understand each other, you're more likely to be successful.
24:40
Sometimes I thought England looked a little bit lost.
24:42
I mean, I love Rashford.
24:43
He plays for Barcelona.
24:44
Hopefully he'll stay again for another season.
24:46
He thrived there because they have a freedom, a freedom of movement at
24:51
Barcelona.
24:52
It's a fantastic team.
24:55
Beautiful to watch.
24:56
And you see Rashford coming into England.
24:58
He looks a bit lost.
24:59
He's just whacking the ball in.
25:01
Hopefully Harry Kane will pop a header in or something.
25:05
But they don't look as though they are a unit, don't you think?
25:09
No.
25:10
That's the point that my son Jonathan wrote the article in saying that you need
25:16
I don't know which
25:17
is the most coherent team.
25:18
I don't know who's got the France, without a doubt.
25:21
France, yeah, yeah.
25:23
I looked at them play, who did they play, Norway.
25:26
And you were looking forward to that game I saw on LinkedIn.
25:30
You were talking about it.
25:31
I was wanting to see a battle between Mbappe and Haaland on the night to see who
25:36
got the most goals.
25:37
And then Ousmane Dembele took over and scored a hat-trick in the first half.
25:42
But I said, people ask me, do you think England will win?
25:45
I said, any team that wins the World Cup has got to beat France.
25:48
And I can't see anyone beating them at the moment.
25:50
No.
25:51
We've got the good one now, which is Brazil-Japan.
25:54
Yeah, that'll be fun in a couple of hours.
25:58
I know, but you can't take anything for granted.
26:02
So anyway, I've enjoyed it.
26:06
I think it's been an enormous success.
26:08
I was walking around New York yesterday.
26:10
It was boiling hot.
26:12
The streets are packed and there's not a word of English being spoken.
26:16
I went into the...
26:19
Looking for stuff for my grandchildren because I've got them spread all over the
26:22
world, you know, like a diaspora.
26:25
And, you know, looking for smaller jerseys for team jerseys.
26:31
So I went in both the Adidas and the Nike stores.
26:37
They were packed.
26:38
You know, when I say packed, just hundreds of people in there, you know, buying
26:42
whatever's in there, whatever they could put their hands on.
26:45
All different nationalities depending.
26:48
You know, look, you've still got Reebok and you've still got Puma, you know,
26:52
everybody.
26:52
But, I mean, both those, Adidas and Nike, sponsor the big teams in that.
26:57
But it was just crazy, you know, just can't get enough of it.
27:01
And how much are they charging, $70, $80 a shirt?
27:04
$85, $80.
27:09
It's robbery, you know what I mean?
27:12
It goes to the clubs or to the nation.
27:15
But, I mean, it's for a piece of… What is nothing more than polyester?
27:21
Made in Vietnam, costs $5 to make.
27:27
But you're paying for a kid, and I'm talking a youngster, I think this was $85.
27:34
Yeah.
27:35
Man.
27:36
Well, there's the knuckles.
27:37
You can find the knuckles.
27:39
If you go down to Times Square, you'll find something there.
27:45
You sound as though you're having fun, David.
27:48
The more I speak to you, the more I realize you are a New Yorker and you will
27:51
end up there.
27:52
I'm convinced you're going to end up in New York.
27:55
It's the right time.
27:56
You know what I mean?
27:57
It's summer.
27:58
It's warm.
27:58
And you've got this competition.
28:01
You've got the World Cup.
28:02
And I think that's adding to the fun of meeting people, talking to people,
28:07
watching the games, and seeing them all
28:09
gather in pubs and so on.
28:11
I think that's where the fun is.
28:13
And credit to America.
28:15
We've criticized them.
28:17
We've gone at them.
28:18
But it's been an incredible competition.
28:21
It has.
28:22
And on that note, we'll leave it.
28:23
David, thank you very much for your ramblings.
28:25
It was great fun.
28:26
David Shapiro is from Sasson Securities speaking to us from Manhattan.
28:30
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28:34
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