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The 5 o' Clock Shadow with Schalk Louw · Strictly Business

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You're listening to Strictly Business Podcast with Lindsay Williams.
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The JFC has closed its doors for another day, so it's time for the 5 o'clock
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shadow.
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And as always on a Wednesday, I speak to Skullclo, Portfolio Manager at PSG Wealth
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Old Oak in Cape Town.
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And so we wait for next week, Skull, because every article you read is, well,
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we've got the Fed next week and everything.
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But there's a couple of things that are influencing it, notably inflation.
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We got the CPI tomorrow, I think, from the States, and we had PPI today.
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Which, strangely, came in below expectations.
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Yeah, and then you've got the worries in Qatar.
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I mean, that you can add to this escalation.
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So, yeah, there's a few uncertainties for sure.
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That's it, yeah.
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So, anyway, that's all going to happen next week, plus a couple of hours.
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And Thursday morning will be the time when you're furiously phoning your clients
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saying, I told you so,
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they've actually raised interest rates, didn't cut them.
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and the market's collapsed 8.3%.
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Where are you coming from, Lindsay?
1:04
It'll never happen.
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So the CME Fed tool as we currently stand, I mean, it's creeping up every day.
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For the listeners out there, we've had this conversation for a few weeks, how
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it's gone from the one moment,
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the probability is as high that we'll see a cut.
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Eventually it came down.
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And now it's...
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It's 100%.
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We know it's 100%
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probability that we'll see the Fed cut rates for the first time this year on the
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17th of September in exactly a week's time.
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But, I mean, the CME Fed tool actually has changed now.
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It's actually now showing us there's a 90% probability that they're going to cut by a
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quarter of a percentage.
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But there's actually a few economists out there stating that, yeah, we're looking at
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a 10%.
1:53
probability now that we're going to see half a percent so that's going to be very
2:00
very interesting no no no not gonna happen it's
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far too drastic um skulk the other thing we need to talk about and it's an
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interesting one is
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anglo-american plc because a couple of days ago i suddenly saw this thing
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flashing up they've done a 50 billion
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dollar deal and
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it's called tech and it's it's it's very much skewed towards one commodity isn't it
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and
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that's copper Yeah, in a successful deal,
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you would always like to see that math calculation, the one where 1 plus 1 equals
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3.
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And when I look through this deal,
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and I've said it today to someone that the proof of the pudding is going to be in the
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eating.
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If this deal goes through,
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we're going to see how the new Anglo and tech combination is going to…
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But as they've already mentioned yesterday in the announcement,
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is that they foresee the combination of the two companies could see these combined
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companies
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mine an extra 175,000 tons of copper per annum.
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Now, that already to me is a one plus one equals three.
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So I think that's going to be an interesting thing to watch.
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Moving the head office to Canada or Vancouver.
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Yeah, that's a really, really interesting move.
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But I think it's going to be a very, very interesting merger.
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I think the biggest thing for me is going to be the effect on the JSE because
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when you look at the JSE and more specifically the weight towards resources,
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this is going to see an increase for the JSE's weight towards resources.
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So.
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Yeah, I think most analysts out there are going to need to know this stuff on recess
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going forward.
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Yeah, there are two hurdles that Anglo-American and tech need to get over,
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and that's the Canadian government and also shareholders.
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But I don't think, bar from a few clauses being changed,
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I don't think there'll be any obstacles to the merger.
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What do you think, Skulk?
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No, I doubt there's going to be any.
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any major major obstacles i i can't see that any competition commission um will
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will say that
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this although this is going to be quite a substantial and a massive massive you know
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company
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i mean in the in the uh
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it's a copper copper site i've already seen some indications that this will be
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one of the top five largest
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copper producers in the world uh but i doubt that this there's going going to
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any individual or company or even country saying that this deal can't go through.
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I think from an African point of view, it's going to be fairly sad.
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But I mean, this is sort of the Anglo-Gold playbook as well.
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We remember a few years ago, and I think this might be already five or six years
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ago, Anglo-Gold,
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and that was previously inside the Anglo-American portfolio or stall.
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Yeah.
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They got rid of every single South African gold mine, sold it,
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interesting enough, to Harmony.
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But they got rid of all the South African gold mines and today pretty much got no
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holding within South Africa,
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although still listed in South Africa, or secondary listed in South Africa, don't
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have any South African gold mines.
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This could be interesting for Anglo-American because they're only
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holding this new...
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Massive conglomerates going to be owning, when I say in South Africa,
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is only Kumba iron ore.
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So, yeah, the question begs, will they be keeping it?
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Is it something that they will be focusing on expanding it?
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Because, yeah, I think all the Kumba iron ore shelters could just have a look and
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see what happens to Kumba.
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I hope this goes well and I hope that the copper price goes up.
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because this is the second South African company which is linking its lot to copper
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because Harmony
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Goldmine is acquiring MAC Copper Limited for
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$1.03 billion.
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Okay, it's not a huge deal, but it's a decent one.
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And it gains a copper mine in Australia as well,
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which I mentioned to you last week about Harmony having a look at copper.
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Now Anglo-American, obviously.
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doing more than having a look at copper and yeah everything is everything is
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geared towards the
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electricity production as ai needs more electricity as electric cards needs more
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electricity it's got to be clean energy so copper
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is a major part of that so what we're going to do every time we speak now with
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the numbers is we're going to go
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through the normal one gold platinum palladium of crude oil and then we're
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going to have copper as well we have to have copper
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Do you agree with that, Scott?
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We'll need to have it.
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We've got to have copper.
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Yeah, we'll need to have it.
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Definitely.
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We'll need to have it.
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I actually found us Africans to be really, really funny, Lindsay.
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I mean, something happened, some big event happened, good or bad.
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One of the first things usually happens is, you know,
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us Africans will make some joke about the event.
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And yesterday was no different.
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And I think the tweet of the day.
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Go on.
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And I need to give him props.
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was Pitfall Yoon's tweet on this deal.
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And he just said, I don't have the tweet in front of me, but I'm going to sort of
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guess,
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sort of more or less the tweet.
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He said, this must be sort of the kiss of death for copper.
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Yeah.
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Because Anglo-American has become the Jim Cramer of South African investments,
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getting it wrong consistently.
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See you now.
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I mean, this is out there.
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I mean, we know, I mean, since I think pretty much 2008-ish, I mean, Agner
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American did get it wrong.
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I mean, there was a few times over the past 20 years where this company got so
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close going bankrupt.
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And they got some of these commodities, you know, incorrect.
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But I think this time around...
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They got out of platinum just as the platinum market started to turn, of
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course, didn't they?
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Yeah, exactly.
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Exactly.
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So, I mean, Anglo-American, the dream grammar of South African investments or,
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you know, international mining houses is, I think,
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the tweet of the day.
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Well, let's watch this thing.
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As I said, it's been all over the place with Trump pushing it up 20 percent and
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then down 20
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percent on the COMEX in New York.
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It's settled down now a bit, but we'll come to that later on and have a look at
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the moment on other companies.
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And I know you want to talk about GrowthPoint because you like property,
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don't you?
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Yeah, I love property.
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It's been kind to me over the past few years.
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It's been one of those companies which I also sort of had in my portfolio as one of
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the star
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portfolios, overweight positions that I had.
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Results today, I thought, looked pretty decent.
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I think I had a few comments in my team this morning.
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The one was boring.
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The one was...
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oh, it's just too simple.
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And again, there's another saying that goes, you know, simple is safe.
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This was a solid set of results.
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Revenue up 2.2%.
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Your distributable income, that was up 3.1%.
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Look at the dividend, that was up another 6.1%.
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Things that stood out for me.
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I mean, this company's still got a NAV of 19 rand, 88 per share.
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That's putting it at a, let's call it just sharp, a 28% discount.
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to its next asset value.
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When you look at over the past, let's call it 15 years, and let's exclude that
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period,
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that 2008-2009 period where it was just absurd levels,
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where the likes of
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GrowthPoint traded 120-130% NAV.
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I mean, let's exclude that.
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If we look at the past, let's call it seven, eight years,
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this company has come from a 2000...
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and 2018,
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2017 levels of just over trading at NAV to now still trading 28%
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discount.
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I don't think it's expensive.
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It's still trading at a forward dividend multiple of
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9.5%.
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That's a great return.
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I mean, that's giving you very similar interest than...
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than the current long bond rate.
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So that's always a, it's called a big plus for me.
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They mentioned that things are looking good.
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They specifically highlighted the fact that the V&A waterfront is expected to
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deliver
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double digit growth within the financial year in 2026.
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Despite these renovations that they've got, and we know looking beyond that, this
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is still one of the best, one of the best, I would say,
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one of the best.
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properties in the world.
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So, I mean, if you're a holder of GrowthPoint, I would definitely not be in
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a rush to sell it.
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I mean, not at a 9.5% dividend yield.
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And if you're not holding it, just watch it.
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If you want something simple or boring in your portfolio that's just going to juggle
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around, I would definitely be looking to increase my holding.
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Old Mutual also came out with results today and the share price is actually
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doing quite nicely, up about two and three quarters percent.
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Are you a fan?
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Did it do well?
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Tell us more.
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Yeah, it was good.
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I mean, today, that's another thing.
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I mean, it's just to me that this is not a company that I'm owning.
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And I'm struggling to see a massive investment case.
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So the results were pretty good.
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I mean, I thought it was not too bad.
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But I struggle to find where they're going to be seeing their growth.
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I mean, I know they're trading at fairly low multiples.
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If you're looking for a company that's because the company is trading at, let's
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call it, 6%, 6.5% dividend yield,
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that's a big plus.
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But at ROE, return on equity of over 13%, I mean,
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it's just such a low-growth company.
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And besides buying it for the dividend and just some capital growth, well
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This is the company that I would say is a little bit too boring for me currently.
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I prefer Sunlum. Sunlum's set of results came out, I think, last week or two weeks
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ago, if I'm not mistaken.
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And there they've shown a sort of a stronger migration towards financial and
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investment services.
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That I did like.
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So, yeah, not a bad set of results coming from Mutual, but I still prefer
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Sunlum at current levels.
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Okay, that's a couple out the way.
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But the one that didn't do so well was Metair because the share price down nearly
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10%.
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Metair fell off the radar, didn't it?
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It was the darling with the battery business and Turkey and everything.
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What happened?
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No, I don't follow the company at all.
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I can't give any comments.
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I've got a similar view.
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I know the company wasn't.
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you know consistently and constantly in in in the media and the newspapers on on you
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know these
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let's call it the you mentioned the battery side um but yeah i just saw this
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morning the results
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didn't look too good didn't look too good at all okay well we didn't get to the
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bottom of that one but uh yeah just to let you know if you are a
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shareholder watch out because uh there's some fallout from those results 10 today
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so well so far the market is
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closed What else have we got to look at, Scalp?
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If you have to look at gold, it got close to $3,700.
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Yeah, just like it.
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No, it's, I mean, we've got a few things playing, you know, absolutely towards
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gold.
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I mean, the one moment you sorted off the show stating that all eyes are now on the
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17th of September.
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I mean, we've seen Trump, President Trump come out.
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I think it was yesterday or the day before.
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And when I say come out, it was again, it was a tweet he brought out.
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Where he absolutely pummeled it, Powell again, went into him and said,
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well, you were late increasing rates back in 2021.
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Now you're absolutely behind the curve and late reducing rates.
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What does he know?
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Come on now.
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I know, I know.
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And he's putting so much pressure on the Fed.
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And I don't say that Powell and Neshe succumb to that.
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to the pressures but you can see it's it's definitely having an effect mr market is
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telling us since that tweet
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You could see, and that's where this probability suddenly increased from the
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quarter of a percent to even a half a percent.
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Nobody entertained the half a percent.
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You and I had this conversation, I think exactly two weeks ago, where I said, this
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will be, I think,
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the most interesting play.
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I mean, if we see a half a percent on the 17th of September,
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I would not be calling tops in this market anytime soon.
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And here we're sitting, it's a 10% probability.
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There's still a week to go.
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But there's two ways to look at that, Skulk.
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If you say, well, 50 basis points, they've never done that.
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Or the last time they did it was in 1932 or something like that.
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I don't know what the number is, but I've never seen a 50 basis point cut.
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But then my memory is going.
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25 basis points is all we've dealt in over the last few years.
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There's two ways to look at it.
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Yes, that is absolutely fantastic cheap money, and it's great for growth stocks
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historically.
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Yes, it is.
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but if he did that it would shock the market and it's a wait a second what do
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you see do
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you see that 911 000 jobs that is going to be taken off the payrolls data that we've
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already got by
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the bureau of labor statistics so that means 76
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000 jobs a month less than the ones that were reported they're looking at that and
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seeing a deep deep problem in the labor
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market so if they are then people say that's not good for that's not good for
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corporate profits let's sell so there's two ways of
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looking at it.
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the pessimistic way, which is in the minority, or the optimistic way, which
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undoubtedly would win, I think.
16:58
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
17:00
But I think it wasn't that this comment you mentioned, I've never seen this and
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I've never seen this.
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I mean, I can just tell you, I mean, President Trump entered his second term,
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you know,
17:12
on the 21st of January this year.
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And since then, I've had a few things which I've never seen in my life before.
17:19
So, I mean, and one of them, him being quite vocal on how bad,
17:27
you know, his chairman of the Federal Reserve, you know, is.
17:33
I mean, anything can happen.
17:35
I don't necessarily say that that is going to happen or, you know,
17:41
will be good because I don't think it will be good.
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at all.
17:45
But I think this is one of the reasons why we've seen gold react over the past few
17:49
days,
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because we can clearly see there's going to be pressure on reducing interest rates
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and reducing it quicker than
17:58
let's call it expected.
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Then secondly, I mean, we've mentioned it as well.
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I mean, Israel now going against Hamas in Qatar,
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that's also a big one.
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And I think everybody is worried that that could
18:13
again escalate you know further so um yeah gold price there we go three three
18:19
thousand seven
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hundred i'm just putting into i'm just putting into a microsoft while you chat
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away i'm just putting into microsoft
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co-pilot when did the fed last cut
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rates by 50 basis points see what this thing comes up with incidentally while i'm
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doing that i put in two
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new ai apps on my phone today one is called perplexity and the other which is
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american
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And the other one is Chinese called Deep Seeker.
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Do you use either of those?
18:47
Yeah, I use the usual suspects.
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But don't disregard grok.
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No, I've got grok.
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I love grok.
18:57
Yeah, so grok, I love using grok as well.
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But yeah, all those that you just mentioned, I do use them.
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The most recent 50 basis point cut half a percent by the U.S.
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Federal Reserve occurred in September.
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and...
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September the 18th, 2024.
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I told you my memory was going.
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September the 18th, 2024. This was the Fed's first rate cut in four years,
19:23
bringing the federal funds target rate down to a range of 475 to 5 percent.
19:30
Oh, OK.
19:34
So that was it.
19:35
Oh, of course, you know, that was probably politically motivated because that would
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have been Biden's last
19:43
Fed.
19:45
meeting is that correct yeah yeah that that is correct yes yes
19:50
almost or this or the penultimate one yeah yeah okay so that was it politics but just
19:56
again while you were you were going into i
19:59
did the same i mean here's also a few things which which um
20:04
which Trump actually said over the past, let's call it, year.
20:10
You mean lied about.
20:11
You're talking about his lies now, aren't you?
20:13
No, no, no.
20:14
I'm just having things where you just can't believe he will actually say this.
20:19
For instance, I looked at Powell.
20:21
I mean, in May, he said, too late,
20:25
Jerome Powell is a fool who doesn't have a clue.
20:28
Now, this is one of the things.
20:29
So then he got branded as Jerome Too Late Powell.
20:34
So he's referred numerous times,
20:36
he's referred to too late Jerome Powell.
20:41
And then he'll go off.
20:42
And then, I mean, what was it, August last month, and this one I remember,
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in a truth on his social post, he slammed Powell and says that
20:53
Powell is one of the dumbest and most destructive people.
20:56
Huh?
20:57
Are you kidding?
20:59
You can't say that.
21:00
That's just rude.
21:01
It's ignorant.
21:02
It's piggish.
21:03
It's actually a disgraceful display of disrespect by Donald Trump.
21:09
Yeah.
21:09
OK.
21:10
Let's have a look at some markets now, Scott, because I like the RAND.
21:14
I like the RAND below 1750 against the US dollar.
21:17
That's a 1.3% fall for the dollar against the mighty local currency.
21:22
Well done to the RAND.
21:23
British pound against the RAND, 2368.
21:26
That's the pound down a quarter of a percent.
21:28
and the euro round.
21:30
It's 20.49, down nearly half a percent for the euro.
21:33
Well done, the Rand.
21:35
Euro-dollar, 117.25.
21:37
That is a euro that's gained 0.8% against the US dollar.
21:42
British pound, 135.40.
21:45
I'm surprised it's so high, especially with the political machinations going on
21:50
over there.
21:50
The gold price, 36.48 which is gosh
21:57
Up 21 it says here, I hope that's right.
21:59
Platinum is up $24 an ounce to $13.95, that's 1.7%.
22:04
The star performer of the white metals is palladium, up nearly 7%,
22:08
$79 an ounce to $12.21,
22:12
only $170 away from parity with its larger trading cousin, platinum.
22:19
Okay, I promised you that we would add copper to our list, so let's start with
22:25
copper today.
22:27
Copper is $4.55 per pound in US dollars.
22:32
As I said, it's traded on the Commodity Exchange in New York rather than the
22:37
London Metal Exchange.
22:39
1.1% higher today.
22:40
Brent crude oil is $67.37, 1.5% up.
22:45
And West Texas is $63.63, up 1.6% on the day.
22:50
So commodities doing...
22:52
Very nicely.
22:53
South African 10-year bond yield is 9.48%.
22:56
You know, early April, it was 11.08% scale.
23:00
I mean, what a move.
23:02
150, 160 basis points for the South African 10-year, the yield to the
23:08
downside.
23:10
US 10-year also doing very well indeed.
23:12
406, 4.06%.
23:15
That was in the 440s only, what, six weeks ago.
23:18
And then the S&P 500.
23:20
Let's go to the stock market now.
23:22
It's chugging along as it tends to do, up 0.4%.
23:26
The S&P futures 6,547.
23:31
They're almost the spot month now.
23:33
And finally, Bitcoin is also doing well, up 2.6%
23:38
to 113,813.
23:43
So, nice day, Skulk.
23:44
What have been the movers on the JSC individual stocks-wise, please?
23:49
so we heard We had Anglo-American move again today, another 2.6%.
23:54
I'm not going to look at top performers for now, but we had Anglo-American move
24:00
2.6% again today.
24:02
And also Rimgrove.
24:02
Rimgrove brought out a trading statement.
24:06
This is one of my darlings as well.
24:08
Really great guidance, great, great upside.
24:12
It seems like they're going to see the heaps grow quite substantially.
24:16
And that move with Rimgrove also up.
24:19
2.3%.
24:21
Yeah, I mean, I think the things have stood out.
24:24
You mentioned the likes of the PGMs, which naturally help the likes of the Impalas,
24:31
Volterras, those companies move up slightly.
24:35
But, I mean, it's been dominated by gold, as you mentioned, with the gold price
24:39
running.
24:40
Yeah, look at the golds.
24:40
I've got the top four.
24:41
Sorry to interrupt.
24:42
I've got the top four and the top five gold diggers.
24:45
DRD up 4.5%, Anglo Gold up 4.3%, Harmony up 4.25%,
24:51
Goldfields up 3.8%, and then coming in fifth, another one that you like, Growth
24:57
Point up
24:59
3.1%. We'll come to that in a second, but let me give you the downside first.
25:02
It's Altile down tip.
25:04
10.6%.
25:06
Alphamyn down 7.25%.
25:08
Wilson Bailey down 6.5%.
25:11
Nepi Rockcastle down 5%.
25:13
And ABSA down 4.5%.
25:15
Any ex-divs there?
25:17
Because it looks suspiciously like there should be.
25:22
It's been a very bad day for the banks.
25:27
It's just been...
25:29
But I'm into your question.
25:29
Yeah, Standard Bank was one.
25:32
APSA is one as well.
25:34
ItalTal, I don't know if you mentioned ItalTal.
25:36
Yes, I did.
25:38
10.6% down.
25:39
Why is that?
25:40
No, that's also, that was a 1.20 dividend.
25:44
It's just an ex-div story.
25:45
Good.
25:46
And just by the way, here's an interesting factoid.
25:50
I mean, I think you mentioned Goldfields is one of the top performers, if I'm not
25:54
mistaken.
25:54
Yes, I did, up 3.8%. Yes.
25:58
But you need to add another seven rand because that's also been an ex-dev story.
26:05
Oh, no, sorry.
26:06
You know what?
26:06
It's not.
26:07
It's not an ex-dev story.
26:08
I just thought for a second.
26:10
This is great.
26:11
No, it is.
26:12
Here we go.
26:12
I can see it.
26:13
Last day to trade.
26:15
It's a seven rand today.
26:16
It was yesterday.
26:17
Last day to trade was.
26:19
So it knocked off a seven rand.
26:22
dividend yesterday and then still managed to increase by 4%.
26:26
But here's where I want to get to.
26:27
I mean, this is just crazy stuff.
26:29
It's absolutely bonkers.
26:32
You've had Deben Riddipo did, which was up 4.5%.
26:36
Year-to-date performance with currency, it's 135%.
26:41
You had Anglo Gold second, was 4.4% up today.
26:46
Year-to-date performance now sitting at 172%.
26:51
How many?
26:52
Up today, 4.3%.
26:55
Year-to-date, that's a lag, but still, that's up 80%.
26:59
Goldfields, which we mentioned, traded extra, still up 4%.
27:03
That is trading up currently 163% year-to-date.
27:10
And what was it?
27:11
Pan-African Resources.
27:12
Pan-African Resources, they're sitting at 122% for year-to-date.
27:18
This is just...
27:19
crazy crazy performances you know coming from from our gold diggers just absolutely
27:26
dominating
27:28
dominating the market this year i remember the late dr clive roffy talking to me
27:33
about drd gold and he used to bang
27:35
on about it i think it's about five round a share at the time of gold shares were
27:40
you couldn't give them away and he always said it's going to 50 round a share
27:42
lindsey well
27:44
that was 20 years ago so i mean yeah and he's dead now shame poor thing um but uh
27:48
He actually passed away just prior to the gold run actually started.
27:54
It was actually so sad.
27:55
It was, because he was the ultimate gold bull.
27:59
I don't know what his charts would be telling him that it would go to now, but
28:06
I'm sure it would be something very, very glamorous, Skulk.
28:08
Okay, I think that's it, apart from you giving us the closing indices on the JSC
28:14
Securities Exchange, please.
28:16
So the JSE today closed slightly up 35 basis points at 103,588 points,
28:23
dominated by the resource index and most probably dominated by the diggers, you
28:29
know, up 2.75%.
28:31
Industrials, they were down 32 basis points, while financials, they were down
28:36
70 basis points.
28:38
Essay property, a little out from growth point, that was up a quarter of a
28:42
percentage.
28:42
When we look at the value traded going through the market today, Well, 24 billion
28:47
traded today.
28:49
Not a bad day at all.
28:51
Very good.
28:53
And not a bad analysis from Skullclaw, who's a portfolio manager at PSG Wealth
28:56
Old Oak in Cape Town.
28:58
And that was the five o'clock shadow.
29:00
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29:05
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