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New year begins with Cubs missing out on Tatsuya Imai · North Side Territory: A Chicago Cubs Podcast

0:05
Speaker 1: Welcome into Northside Territory. Foul Territory Networks Cubs Podcast. I'm
0:08
Speaker 1: Sahadev Sharma with my partner Patrick Mooney. We are your
0:12
Speaker 1: Cubs beat writers over at the Athletic and Patrick Tatsuya
0:17
Speaker 1: and my has signed with the Houston Astros. The Cubs
0:22
Speaker 1: start the new year with some disappointment for Cubs fans.
0:27
Speaker 1: This was a twenty seven year old Japanese star really
0:33
Speaker 1: dominated the past couple of years in the MPB. But
0:39
Speaker 1: everything we got from this, you know, this is a
0:42
Speaker 1: disappointment for fans.
0:43
Speaker 2: Clearly.
0:43
Speaker 1: I saw the reaction on social media. People were upset
0:46
Speaker 1: about it and didn't understand it. I gotta say it basically,
0:52
Speaker 1: since the offseason started and started talking to people around
0:55
Speaker 1: the game, nobody was in love with this guy, and
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Speaker 1: I think the contract that we saw kind of represents that,
1:03
Speaker 1: saying that people weren't interested, or that the Cubs weren't interested.
1:07
Speaker 1: I just didn't get a set that this is a
1:10
Speaker 1: guy that they had to get. That wasn't the feeling
1:14
Speaker 1: I got when talking to people both within the organization
1:18
Speaker 1: and outside.
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Speaker 3: Yes, that is why I'm hesitant to say new year,
1:24
Speaker 3: same old Cubs. But it was kind of a jarring
1:29
Speaker 3: way to start the year if you're a Cubs fan.
1:31
Speaker 3: I don't think this was the player to sort of
1:36
Speaker 3: like make any sweeping statements about the off season, but
1:41
Speaker 3: it does sort of fit into a larger pattern here
1:45
Speaker 3: of the Cubs have their valuations, they want good deals,
1:52
Speaker 3: they want surplus value. They're not all that eager to
2:00
Speaker 3: sort of bend and make certain compromises. We'll learn more
2:06
Speaker 3: as the off season unfolds. I don't think this was
2:12
Speaker 3: the guy they were obsessed over. This wasn't like when
2:14
Speaker 3: Masahiro Tanaka came over a long time ago, but this
2:23
Speaker 3: was sort of the scenario in which you could see
2:26
Speaker 3: him falling to the Cubs of his markets sort of softening,
2:32
Speaker 3: and then making a compelling offer and a good platform
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Speaker 3: for him to transition to Major League Baseball. Obviously, that
2:45
Speaker 3: did not happen.
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Speaker 2: I'm curious.
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Speaker 3: I believe they'll be like a press conference maybe Monday
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Speaker 3: in Houston. I'm curious to hear. I know that Imai
2:56
Speaker 3: had played with Kakuchi over in Japan, and that Kuchi
3:04
Speaker 3: also represented by Scott Boris, and that a lot of
3:08
Speaker 3: kind of what Emi did in MPB was sort of
3:12
Speaker 3: patterned off Kakuchi in terms of like pitch mix, workload
3:18
Speaker 3: preparation routine. And Kuchi was awesome for the Astros after
3:23
Speaker 3: he got traded from Toronto, and he parlayed that into
3:26
Speaker 3: a nice deal with the Angels. So you're talking about,
3:32
Speaker 3: you know, is that maybe AMI's ceiling or floor just
3:40
Speaker 3: as a really quality major league starter for years upon years,
3:45
Speaker 3: we'll see. I think clearly the baseball industry said, we
3:50
Speaker 3: don't value him as a front line, line starter right now,
3:54
Speaker 3: and he's betting on himself to see if he can
3:58
Speaker 3: have a great year in Houston and then cash in
4:02
Speaker 3: either before the CBA expires or under a new economic
4:06
Speaker 3: landscape whenever the next labor deal is finalized.
4:10
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this, this current deal without I mean
4:14
Speaker 1: even without the opt outs and the escalators potential escalators,
4:18
Speaker 1: it's like eighteen million a year. That's what jameson tyone
4:23
Speaker 1: got three years ago. Yeah, you know, so this is
4:29
Speaker 1: like he got he got four at eighteen per if
4:32
Speaker 1: I'm remembering off the top of my head correctly, I
4:34
Speaker 1: believe that's what tyone got. So, you know, like a
4:37
Speaker 1: mid rotation starter, but he's getting opt outs and some
4:41
Speaker 1: escalators some weird escalators that get like I think trigger
4:45
Speaker 1: at like eighty ninety one hundred innings if I remember
4:48
Speaker 1: going off the top of my head. So that's you know,
4:51
Speaker 1: like he should be able to get that, assuming he's
4:53
Speaker 1: healthy and is a starter.
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Speaker 2: It's an interesting deal.
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Speaker 1: It's one that I think, you know, if the Cubs
5:01
Speaker 1: would assigned you said, this is really interesting. This is
5:03
Speaker 1: you know, this is a type of like you said,
5:05
Speaker 1: it's the type of deal that I thought that they
5:07
Speaker 1: would have been happy to sign.
5:10
Speaker 2: I think it's the opt outs.
5:11
Speaker 1: That probably make it a little questionable for them because
5:16
Speaker 1: if he's staying on that deal, what type of first
5:19
Speaker 1: year did he have? It's risk that maybe they see
5:24
Speaker 1: other options out there that they like, would rather take,
5:27
Speaker 1: you know, spend that money elsewhere and put that risk
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Speaker 1: in a different spot.
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Speaker 2: It's it still has to you know, I think.
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Speaker 1: So let's get back Like for me, I go back
5:43
Speaker 1: to what we've been saying for two months now. I've
5:47
Speaker 1: been hearing questions about his viability as far as his fastball,
5:52
Speaker 1: what type of breaking ball does he actually have? How
5:55
Speaker 1: does that all translate to the big leagues? And I
5:58
Speaker 1: think those are legitimate questions and you bring up Kokuchi,
6:01
Speaker 1: who wasn't like a stuffed monster in either here or
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Speaker 1: in NPB, never dominated, but always a quality starter. And
6:13
Speaker 1: I guess you just have to say, like, what is
6:15
Speaker 1: the valuation of a picture like that? But is that
6:20
Speaker 1: his ceiling? Is that his floor? Those are the types
6:23
Speaker 1: of questions I have. I mean, am I has in
6:26
Speaker 1: theory velocity is better than Kakuchi? You know, so better
6:31
Speaker 1: stuff in that fashion? But does the stuff play up?
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Speaker 1: Is the fastball the type that can actually miss bats?
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Speaker 1: Those are the questions that that people seem to have.
6:43
Speaker 1: And I think it was a like not love type
6:46
Speaker 1: situation for a lot of teams. Obviously this was I
6:50
Speaker 1: mean it seems like teams. There were a lot of
6:53
Speaker 1: teams that people expected to be in the thick of
6:55
Speaker 1: it that were weren't that interested. I just think in
7:01
Speaker 1: the end, the public evaluation, like the outside evaluation, turned
7:07
Speaker 1: out to be much bigger than what was actually going
7:10
Speaker 1: on within organizations.
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Speaker 2: This could also be we're getting more.
7:16
Speaker 1: Data now, you know when it comes to MPB players
7:20
Speaker 1: that they have much more information. They're doing a lot
7:22
Speaker 1: more scouting around the league. Teams are getting much more
7:26
Speaker 1: information on these players and clearly they're just weren't in
7:31
Speaker 1: love with am I. This was not a Yamamoto situation,
7:36
Speaker 1: and I think Yamamoto has proven that, oh, Okay, this
7:40
Speaker 1: guy's worth what he was paid, the crazy amount of
7:43
Speaker 1: money he was paid, and I guess it's kind of
7:45
Speaker 1: like a wait and see.
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Speaker 2: With my I am you know.
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Speaker 1: I think in the end, I think I understand why
7:56
Speaker 1: fans are feeling a level of frustration. I do think
8:01
Speaker 1: it's important to know that they this wasn't a situation
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Speaker 1: where the Cubs were completely like outbid or really wanted
8:09
Speaker 1: the guy and just couldn't get it done. But I
8:12
Speaker 1: think it's fair to question like the way the Cubs
8:14
Speaker 1: behave because ultimately what they do is they're they're always
8:18
Speaker 1: looking for that deal, and that has to be frustrating
8:21
Speaker 1: the fans because at a certain point you.
8:26
Speaker 2: Want to see them extend themselves.
8:28
Speaker 1: I guess they did that with in the in the
8:30
Speaker 1: sense that they did that with Kyle Tucker, right, They
8:33
Speaker 1: they went into a comfortable place to do that. I
8:36
Speaker 1: think fans want to see it more often because how
8:39
Speaker 1: else are you supposed to improve your team If you're
8:40
Speaker 1: constantly sticking within this you have to get surplus value.
8:45
Speaker 1: You have to stick to the model type behavior. It
8:49
Speaker 1: can lead to what's the famous Andrew Freeman quote, like
8:52
Speaker 1: basically like you'll you'll always end up their place for
8:55
Speaker 1: a guy, right, So yeah, if.
8:57
Speaker 3: You're always rational, Yeah, yeah about free agency always finished
9:02
Speaker 3: in third place or something.
9:03
Speaker 2: Yeah.
9:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I think that ultimately that's where fans are
9:06
Speaker 1: are left. I know, I got I got a lot
9:08
Speaker 1: of messages from fans like tech like buddies, like what
9:12
Speaker 1: are the Cubs doing? Why? Like why do they always
9:14
Speaker 1: disappoint in free agency? And I think it's I understand
9:18
Speaker 1: the feeling. Like it again, the Cubs weren't in love
9:20
Speaker 1: with this guy, but I cannot deny that, like fans
9:24
Speaker 1: have a right to feel a certain way about this
9:26
Speaker 1: because it seems it is a trend with them.
9:30
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I mean, mis twenty seven years old. So
9:33
Speaker 3: he checks the box for age. He throws in the
9:38
Speaker 3: upper nineties. You know, has like a velocity component as
9:42
Speaker 3: well as that sort of like starter kit to be
9:45
Speaker 3: a major league starter given his long track record of
9:50
Speaker 3: pitchability in NPB, and the Cubs just aren't exactly teeming
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Speaker 3: with like prime age young starter who could be had
10:02
Speaker 3: for a significant amount of time. And you see tie
10:10
Speaker 3: On Boyd showed a all potentially all potential free agents
10:17
Speaker 3: after the twenty twenty six season. Justin Steele is under
10:22
Speaker 3: club control for multiple seasons, but he's obviously coming off
10:25
Speaker 3: a second major surgery in his career. Kate Harton was awesome,
10:32
Speaker 3: but you know, he hasn't he doesn't have the track
10:37
Speaker 3: record of you know, he's just young in his career.
10:39
Speaker 3: There's a lot of unknowns there. He could get way better.
10:42
Speaker 3: I mean, he could become that ace and the pitching
10:47
Speaker 3: ken still sort itself out. But you look at it
10:51
Speaker 3: comes like Dylan Ceas because of that swing and miss
10:53
Speaker 3: stuff the upside, get him into your pitching infrastructure. See
10:57
Speaker 3: what happens. And then as the bidding got went past
11:01
Speaker 3: two hundred million dollars of clubs were good with that.
11:03
Speaker 3: And I think you can understand, like, you know, Dylan
11:07
Speaker 3: Ceese did not exactly have like John Lester's resume when
11:12
Speaker 3: he hit free agency. He didn't even have a really
11:14
Speaker 3: good season in his walk year. And then it's like, Okay,
11:20
Speaker 3: Michael King's interesting too, you know, for all these reasons,
11:23
Speaker 3: and what if we got him at Wrigley Field and
11:26
Speaker 3: what could be done there, and well he got the
11:29
Speaker 3: opt out as well after year one, and you can say, well,
11:34
Speaker 3: he has what one full good season as a major
11:38
Speaker 3: league starter essentially. Okay, maybe you don't want to go
11:42
Speaker 3: on on that, and then it's my the you know,
11:46
Speaker 3: questions that we've spent this episode sort of outlining. Okay,
11:51
Speaker 3: so I think in isolation, all of this makes sense,
11:53
Speaker 3: but when you start to add it up, you know,
11:56
Speaker 3: the onus is going to be on the front office,
11:59
Speaker 3: on ownership, on the business side to make that big move,
12:03
Speaker 3: and there are still lots of interesting free agents out there,
12:06
Speaker 3: both on the hitting side and the pitching side. The
12:09
Speaker 3: trade market has not really heat it up. Outside of
12:13
Speaker 3: that Kyle Tucker trade. The Cubs have not really used
12:16
Speaker 3: their prospect capital in a significant way. Maybe I'm missing
12:21
Speaker 3: another deal off the top of my head, but they've
12:23
Speaker 3: been pretty conservative in that regard as well, So there
12:30
Speaker 3: will be a pivot here. Maybe it is Zach Gallon,
12:34
Speaker 3: who's also represented by Scott Boris and has been repeatedly
12:37
Speaker 3: linked to the Cubs throughout this off season. But in
12:42
Speaker 3: the moment, yeah, I think the frustration is totally understandable,
12:45
Speaker 3: and I was walking past Wrigley Field the other day
12:48
Speaker 3: and the you know, the DraftKings sports bar looked pretty
12:52
Speaker 3: packed for the Rose Bowl. I did not go in,
12:55
Speaker 3: so I did not see the full scope of it,
12:58
Speaker 3: but it looked like a pretty lively business going on.
13:01
Speaker 3: And when you just kind of see the neighborhood, you
13:04
Speaker 3: you know, the passion of this fan base, you see
13:09
Speaker 3: how other big market teams operate. It's just hard to
13:15
Speaker 3: separate sometimes how much of this is a baseball component, Yes,
13:19
Speaker 3: for sure, like this is a pretty extremely rational, conservative
13:24
Speaker 3: front office. But then there's also the business side of
13:28
Speaker 3: this organization that you know, simply does not extend the
13:35
Speaker 3: way certain peer markets peer big market franchises do.
13:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, and ultimately that's where that's where fans are going
13:45
Speaker 1: to get stuck on, Like they won't get past that idea,
13:50
Speaker 1: you know, that that concept, the fact that they just
13:53
Speaker 1: don't behave in a manner that fans would like them to.
13:58
Speaker 1: It's it's something that we talk about semi frequently but
14:02
Speaker 1: also have to kind of put to the side at
14:04
Speaker 1: times because it's like, how are we supposed to analyze
14:06
Speaker 1: this team and constantly bring that up, Like at a
14:10
Speaker 1: certain point we have to just kind of move on
14:13
Speaker 1: and say, like this is.
14:13
Speaker 2: How they behave Now let's analyze how.
14:16
Speaker 1: Do they get better? And I think that's that's kind
14:19
Speaker 1: of how where we have to go. You have to say,
14:22
Speaker 1: like what are the steps to get better? Okay, there's
14:25
Speaker 1: a lot left in free agency, there are options on
14:29
Speaker 1: the trade market.
14:30
Speaker 2: What can they do? What will they do? And come
14:34
Speaker 2: what is it.
14:35
Speaker 1: February eleventh or twelfth, whenever they report for pitchers and catchers?
14:42
Speaker 1: You know, what will this team look like? And maybe
14:45
Speaker 1: even after that, what will they look like? Because are
14:48
Speaker 1: we heading to another spring training where we're talking about
14:52
Speaker 1: some player or somebody that's lingering on the market that
14:56
Speaker 1: the Cubs are interested in, because that seems to happen
15:00
Speaker 1: every year, and the Cubs are one of those teams
15:02
Speaker 1: that are that are going to kind of sit there
15:04
Speaker 1: and like try and pounce on the you know the
15:08
Speaker 1: guy that is lingering because he's he's now his value
15:12
Speaker 1: is as far as what they may get him at,
15:15
Speaker 1: Like that's how you get surplus value. There are quite
15:18
Speaker 1: a few players like that right now. There are a
15:21
Speaker 1: lot of players out on the market. There's a really
15:24
Speaker 1: it's you look at the top free agents. You know,
15:28
Speaker 1: if you if you that started the off season to now,
15:31
Speaker 1: what is it like, maybe six of ten, six of
15:34
Speaker 1: twelve are still available.
15:36
Speaker 3: I think it was on the Athletic Big Board, six
15:39
Speaker 3: of the top nine are una signed.
15:42
Speaker 2: Okay.
15:42
Speaker 3: I think my I believe was ten.
15:45
Speaker 2: Okay, So I mean you're talking about some really high end.
15:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, you're a luster of premium talent still out there,
15:54
Speaker 3: and I think that's what will open into in our
15:58
Speaker 3: next episode. But it felt relevant to give everyone sort
16:01
Speaker 3: of an an Ami explainer here and stress yeah, like
16:05
Speaker 3: obviously the off season isn't over yet, Like this is
16:08
Speaker 3: not a you know, uh, it's not Panic City. I
16:14
Speaker 3: may not be the player to obsess over, but he
16:17
Speaker 3: could also it could be awesome for the Astros too.
16:20
Speaker 3: I mean people were sort of down on shoulda right,
16:22
Speaker 3: like when you have to sign that deal with the Cubs,
16:24
Speaker 3: and really, for what eighty percent eighty five percent of
16:30
Speaker 3: his time with the Cubs, he's been awesome. And so
16:35
Speaker 3: I think to just part of it, the Cubs have
16:38
Speaker 3: made such concerted effort to become players in Japan, and
16:42
Speaker 3: I think a MA is a little bit different, you know,
16:46
Speaker 3: in terms of you know, being represented by Scott Boris.
16:50
Speaker 3: Like that's kind of a different sort of network when
16:53
Speaker 3: you're talking about some of these relationships and how negotiations on,
17:00
Speaker 3: it's not the same as kind of like you know,
17:04
Speaker 3: you Darvish giving Saya Suzuki his blessing on Chicago or
17:09
Speaker 3: you know, showed at Managa having you know, an agency
17:13
Speaker 3: based in Chicago and just kind of hanging around the
17:16
Speaker 3: neighborhood and it comes together that way.
17:19
Speaker 2: But you know, I do.
17:21
Speaker 3: Think there's value in continuing that and really maintaining that foothold.
17:29
Speaker 3: And you see Suzuki and showed up both you know,
17:34
Speaker 3: eligible to become free agents after the twenty twenty sixth season.
17:37
Speaker 3: It just also makes you wonder what direction the Cubs
17:41
Speaker 3: are heading. Is that something that they're going to really
17:44
Speaker 3: continue to work at, or they may be going to
17:48
Speaker 3: recede and you know, other organizations like the Astros are
17:54
Speaker 3: going to swoop in and maybe dull that competitive edge
17:58
Speaker 3: that the Cubs had worked to establish.
18:01
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, if it comes fall take a step
18:03
Speaker 1: back after twenty six I think it would be specifically
18:08
Speaker 1: against what they what they have told us is coming
18:13
Speaker 1: and what they expect and what they hope to do
18:15
Speaker 1: like this is this would be that would be hugely disappointing,
18:19
Speaker 1: I think for fans, and it would all that frustration
18:23
Speaker 1: and anger I think would be completely justified. I think
18:26
Speaker 1: right now it makes sense to be patient because there
18:29
Speaker 1: is so much, you know, still available and potential moves
18:33
Speaker 1: to be made. Even though it is you know, the
18:37
Speaker 1: new year, and you would think a lot of the
18:39
Speaker 1: work would be done. That's just not how it works anymore, apparently,
18:42
Speaker 1: because there's plenty of work to do for them and
18:46
Speaker 1: options that remain. I'm fascinated to see what Amaa does.
18:50
Speaker 2: I really am.
18:50
Speaker 1: I think it would be, you know, like, let's see
18:53
Speaker 1: what this guy can do in Houston. It's gonna be
18:55
Speaker 1: a tough place to pitch for him, but also a
18:58
Speaker 1: place where you know, there's been a ton of success
19:01
Speaker 1: recently for for pictures.
19:04
Speaker 2: So we'll see how they how they looked, how he looks,
19:06
Speaker 2: and and what happens uh with that contract in the end?
19:10
Speaker 1: Uh? And and if the Cubs should have extended themselves
19:14
Speaker 1: and been more aggressive, We'll we'll see if this was
19:17
Speaker 1: a mistake or not.
19:18
Speaker 3: Uh.
19:18
Speaker 2: And what's next for the Cubs. Well, let's uh wrap
19:22
Speaker 2: it up here.
19:22
Speaker 1: We'll come back and talk more about what's what's left
19:26
Speaker 1: for the Cubs on our next episode and and what
19:28
Speaker 1: direction they could go. Thanks so much for listening. This
19:31
Speaker 1: is Northside Territory. Make sure to rate, review, subscribe, subscribe
19:34
Speaker 1: to the YouTube channel, and subscribe to The Athletic where
19:36
Speaker 1: Patrick and I a on top of all things Cubs.
19:38
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to everyone, Take.
19:39
Speaker 1: Care, do
20:03
Speaker 2: Day able