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Market Check And Real-Life Planning · HPK Provident Advisors: The Weekly Bull

• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome to Friday Live.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you're Friday, the partners of HBK Profit get together and discuss what we're seeing going on in the markets, the economy, and tying in some financial planning topics.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: So it's nice to have Mr.
• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Peluso back with us.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's been pretty busy with client meetings the past couple weeks.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: So Brian, welcome.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_01: Well, thanks.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_01: It's great to be back.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_01: I've missed it.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I had a lot of meetings.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: Tax time is crazy.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_01: Of course, we don't prepare taxes, uh, but a lot of the things we uh work on uh have an effect on taxes.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: So that was super busy.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_01: I did take a few trips.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_01: Um what you know, I decided that I'm not taking any weekend trips uh during anymore.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: How was the golf outing in uh Daytona or south of Daytona where you were?
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we were a little south of Daytona.
• 0:50
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we had a really great time.
• 0:52
  SPEAKER_01: Uh there were four of us and um had a lot of fun.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not a great golfer and I never will be, but uh I showed up.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_01: I I felt like I showed up when I needed to, uh when we needed some points for the silly games where we were playing.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um I figured it out.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: And so I got lucky at the right times.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it's the best way to say it.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: And then you uh went to Kentucky and saw your your youngest in college.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 1:18
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I've got one that's a freshman at the university in Kentucky.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we went down there and checked out uh a few places on the bourbon trail and then went to the horse races, uh, which was a lot of fun.
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_01: I I feel like um uh we really experienced Kentucky, which is one, an absolutely beautiful state.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_01: Uh two, the people are wonderful, and uh and we had a lot of fun, and we actually won a little bit, and I mean a very little bit, but we won at at the horse races.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_01: Always good.
• 1:51
  SPEAKER_01: It's a great time uh in uh Lexington.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: There's a track called Keeneland, uh, which just uh has races on the weekends in April and October, and it's it's just a wonderful experience.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_01: Um and like I said, I think my favorite part was ever everybody was just so nice and all parts of our travels and certainly welcoming and and wonderful hosts and hostesses to their beautiful state.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_01: So that that was a great time.
• 2:18
  SPEAKER_00: And did uh did your wife have one of the big hats on?
• 2:21
  SPEAKER_01: No, no, no.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_01: We were with a group um and uh all the ladies did wear dresses, but there were there were no big crazy hats.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_01: Uh things okay.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: Saving them for the Kentucky Derby, I guess.
• 2:34
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I think I think that's more of a derby thing.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, you know, like I said, my daughter's a freshman, so I'm still figuring it out.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_01: But uh we we did see some uh we did see some folks over there at Keeneland that were uh pretty fancied up and uh and and just having a lot of fun.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I heard Lexington's a really cool area.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: It is.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_01: It's uh you know, that's kind of the heart of horse country, a little bit north of there.
• 2:58
  SPEAKER_01: There are some very, very prominent um uh farms, uh actually all around there.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't really know what I'm talking about when it comes to horse racing, but from what I understand, there's uh it's one farm in particular, just a little bit north of Lexington, has produced several of the uh triple crown winners over the years, I guess.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, but it's beautiful.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_01: It it is just such an Americana kind of place, and uh the food is outstanding, and uh um i it it's a neat part of the world, uh Lexington, in my opinion.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_01: So um, and the Bourbon Trail is a lot of fun.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: You know, some of those uh welcome centers are just immaculate and wonderful and beautiful, and uh they're all down all most of these places are down in these little valleys near a creek or a small river, and uh very cool.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I I highly encourage it.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: I I'm probably also seeing uh a lot of the country this week.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: This is my Salt Lake, just outside of Salt Lake City, uh a little west of there.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: So that's where I stayed last night, and I'll be heading to Reno today.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Um, this was the scene coming into the mountains, still snow, same with Colorado at the top of the mountains.
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_00: So that that was pretty cool.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: And then when I was in Colorado, I did a hike at uh Devil's Backbone, which is like northern Colorado, was really cool.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I brought my dog Midas, he had a great time, and then I stayed at a family or I had dinner at a family friend's a couple nights, and this is a view from their backyard.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: They're on five acres, they have two hogs, a bunch of goats, chickens, just really cool, very rural out there.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we actually had elk steak for dinner the last night I was there.
• 4:46
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, the best for me.
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, the night before we had elk and pork tacos.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: So I gotta and he had he had a massive elk in his living room that he shot with a bow like a while back.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_00: This thing was huge, the horns on it.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: Oh my goodness.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_01: They are large animals.
• 5:05
  SPEAKER_01: I wasn't sure if you were showing us a picture of the farm or of your dinner.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_01: I thought maybe that was dinner, but I guess no.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, they're they're so sweet.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: These things are like big dogs, big messy dogs, yes.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: All right, well, should we get to the markets?
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: We probably should.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's what people tune in for.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: Not our uh vacation plans.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: So this is the chart of the SP 500.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: We did briefly get into overbought territory, and now we're just kind of consolidating at those levels.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I view this as overall pretty healthy to consolidate.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: We might even pull back a little at some point.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Um, a logical place would be to around this breakout level, around 6940 to uh around the 7,000 range.
• 5:52
  SPEAKER_00: So that would be a minor pullback, but overall healthy.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: We are going into uh the summer months, which is typically weak and even worse so in election years, uh midterm election years.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll just have to keep an eye on that.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but overall, this chart looks really good.
• 6:07
  SPEAKER_00: Triple Q's breaking out to all-time highs today.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: Um Treasury's kind of just also in a consolidation range around that 430 level.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so if we stay there, go lower, uh, it should be a good thing.
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: Um crude did tick up this week.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think we're trading at about 95 a barrel, um, down a little bit today, but as long as uh you know it stays kind of in this range, um, it's not really anything to be concerned about.
• 6:38
  SPEAKER_00: The I mean, obviously it hits the consumer.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: And we saw that in retail sales uh this week.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: They came in at 1.7 for the month, which is very, very strong.
• 6:49
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm sure you're saying, well, Mike, gas prices are through the roof.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: Like obviously that had a big part, and yeah, it did.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: But if you look at the control group, which excludes energy and um like the large aircrafts and stuff, we were still at 0.7, which is a very strong reading.
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so we're starting, I'm starting to get a little more optimistic about the economy.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, there's a lot of headwinds we're going into this year with somewhat of a stalled out labor market, and it we really haven't gotten too much clarification on that.
• 7:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's been very volatile readings.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: One month was big up, then a huge downward uh reading, and then the last month was another large upside reading.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: So I'd say on a three-month basis, we're around the 50,000 range.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: Historically, that gets revised lower.
• 7:36
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but at least it's positive for now.
• 7:39
  SPEAKER_00: Unemployment remains pretty low.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we ticked down to 4.3 in the last reading.
• 7:43
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of that had to do with uh there's a reduction in the labor force, particularly in that um like baby boomer demographic.
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: So um not really a sense of strength.
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: You rather see hiring reduced unemployment rate, but what's so?
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we will get a Fed meeting next week on Wednesday.
• 8:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's gonna be a non-factor.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, we had the Warsh nomination or thing in front of the Senate and House.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: I I think by May 15th, there's about a 30% chance he gets uh called in.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll have to just see.
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think they're it sounds like uh they're gonna you know back off on the Powell um investigation so Worsh can get in.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_00: Um he he talked a lot and I I caught some of it, but um they they want to like readjust their communication style, give less forward guidance, which um I don't know how I feel about that.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: I feel like forward guidance has really acted like been a mechanism to get what they want interest rates to do priced in immediately, even beforehand.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know.
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_00: I I I kind of I kind of like the communication, but it's not my decision.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: Not yet, Mike.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: I I will never be Fed chair, I don't think I'll ever be picked for Fed share, and I don't think I would ever accept Fed share.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: That sounds like a horrible job.
• 9:18
  SPEAKER_01: Fair enough.
• 9:20
  SPEAKER_01: Fair enough.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_01: Uh have you made um any major adjustments in our portfolios?
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_00: The the uh no, so I uh I picked up that position in triple Q um right around the turn of the month.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: It ended up being on the the lows of this pullback, and then we're up like four and a half percent in two days, and logically at that point, war wasn't getting any better.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: So I was really expecting us to go into a bear market, that didn't happen.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: So as price dictates, we adjusted.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so we ended up getting back into that position and adding a little more exposure uh last Thursday.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: So we've seen a nice uptick on that.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that'll also be a temporary position.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: Um, I just really it'd be really hard to see a lot of upside in the short term, and the risk are still there, but um, yeah, I don't really see us going into a bear market at this point.
• 10:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, things look pretty healthy, so we're just riding it so far.
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_00: Um, diversified portfolios have done very well this year.
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_00: Fixed income, not that great.
• 10:25
  SPEAKER_00: Um, better so on the muni side than the taxable fixed income.
• 10:29
  SPEAKER_00: So we're seeing better performance overall on the portfolios and the non-retirement side than retirement, which is a flip from last year.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but besides that, international stocks are doing very well.
• 10:41
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so it's really been a year to have a diversified portfolio and actually see those benefits.
• 10:47
  SPEAKER_00: Now we are seeing the Mag 7 start to join the party.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: So that's uh a good from a broadening sense.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: Um, they got pretty cheap on a valuation basis relative to the SP.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: I think a lot of these names were like Microsoft, Alphabet, or maybe not so much Alphabet, but like Microsoft, I think was trading at like, I don't know, 20 times Meta 20 times.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: Like that's very rare.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: You have a company growing 20% a year and trading at that type of multiple with the steady balance sheet.
• 11:20
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so yeah, but I think it's good from a broadening sense.
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um, so we'll just keep adjusting as need be, but overall we're we're having a pretty good year.
• 11:31
  SPEAKER_01: Well, it was a pretty rough year for a while.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_01: Everything was negative uh for a while, uh, except for probably the um the emerging markets.
• 11:42
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but we had a lot of red for uh some period of time.
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_01: Now we got a lot of green.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and underneath the surface, there was actually a ton of stocks that reached bear market territory, um, but other areas kind of held up the overall index level.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_01: Well, certainly is an interesting time.
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_01: You had mentioned that it's a good time to be in diversified portfolios.
• 12:04
  SPEAKER_01: I think our approach, it's always a good time to be in diversified portfolios.
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but different components of it, the the stocks, the bonds, the international, the domestic, large, mid-small, uh um drag, don't do as well, or uh do particularly well at different times.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_01: And you know, that's kind of the point of diversification.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_01: Nobody can accurately predict when any one of those pieces are going to be the best thing to have.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so you have a little bit of all of that and uh hopefully minimize some of the ups and downs, the magnitude of the ups and downs, and uh, you know, over time you participate pretty well.
• 12:45
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, I was talking to uh some folks earlier this week and um primarily stock investors throughout their life, and now they're kind of transitioning to a new phase uh of their life, and their stocks have done very well because they bought them and they held on to them for decades.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: Uh but now as they start uh withdrawing from that as they go into this next phase where the capital that they have built up is what uh pays for their lifestyle as opposed to their intellectual or physical capital.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, we were talking about what, in uh my opinion, and I think Mike, you I think you would agree and probably express it a little bit differently, but the lost art of investment management is the downside, not the upside.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: And when I say that, it's just if you lose less on the downside, you participate on the upside.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_01: You don't have to be number one every year, but you lose less on the downside, you participate on the upside.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_01: Over rolling period, you're probably gonna do better.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: The law of relative returns.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: If you if your portfolio is down 50%, you need a hundred percent return to get back to even.
• 13:50
  SPEAKER_01: No doubt.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: No doubt.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: You know, that that becomes particularly hard when uh the markets, whatever that market might be, are is doing great.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: And all of your neighbors are saying, Well, I picked this up and I'm killing it, and it's great, and oh my gosh, and uh, then I bought this and it and you're like, Well, geez, I got this diversified portfolio, it's doing okay, but I'm not getting that.
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but this is a great year to take a look at to Mike's point of diversified portfolio.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, beginning of the year was rough, a lot of negative out there.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_01: And if you know, if you're you know, your portfolio might be a little bit negative, but not terribly, now you start to participate in over time periods, and that's that's important.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_01: We always talk about having appropriate time period for your buckets of money.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_01: But if you got an appropriate time period over time, you lose less and you participate.
• 14:42
  SPEAKER_01: There's a pretty good chance that when you look back, you say, Wow, I I did better than the alternative of just trying to pick the winner all the time.
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_01: And that's kind of the simplified version of diversification.
• 14:54
  SPEAKER_01: And to your point, it is working this year.
• 14:56
  SPEAKER_00: And this yeah, I mean, I think that our best uh individual stocks in the last 12 months are probably industrials.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we have two positions that have really just continued to go gangbusters, and then uh we picked up a steel manufacturer kind of in the start of uh this drawdown, and just as an inflation hedge, we did that in a oil refinery, and the steel manufacturer is doing much better than the oil refiner.
• 15:22
  SPEAKER_00: We had the oil refiner did really well initially, but then gave back most of it.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: But yeah, it's it it's it's nice that we're seeing broad participation this year.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_01: Well, and that ties into some of the other conversations that we had.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, what do you think this thing in the Middle East is gonna do?
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_01: What do you think oil is gonna do?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_01: By the way, should it surprise any of us that going into the summer months the price of gas is going up?
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_01: Hmm.
• 15:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's always something.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_01: It's always something.
• 15:50
  SPEAKER_01: Price of gas goes up anyway.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: Always something seems to happen during midterm years.
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_01: So we we've got a lot of you're you're absolutely right.
• 15:58
  SPEAKER_01: So we've got a lot of things coming together coming together and saying, wow, isn't this interesting?
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_01: Wow, isn't life interesting all the time?
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, maybe particularly interesting in the in the moment.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_01: But uh, so what do you do?
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_01: And that goes back to the diversification.
• 16:15
  SPEAKER_01: Um so we we don't know what the future holds.
• 16:19
  SPEAKER_01: Uh obviously Mike's looking at all of these things on a on every day, all day, and and trying to interpret the signals of what's coming out from the Fed and what the bond market is doing and um what the you know, what the president is trying to accomplish and all those other things.
• 16:37
  SPEAKER_01: But we don't know.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_01: So what do we do?
• 16:39
  SPEAKER_01: Uh we diversify and and we feel pretty strongly about that.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_01: Mike, I like that.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, could you imagine if we came out and said we invest in industrials?
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_01: That's what we do.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_01: I I don't know if anybody would listen or pay attention.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, you might have some bad years.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: Some years you probably lose a lot of clients.
• 16:58
  SPEAKER_01: Anyway, so you know, one of the things we do here on uh, well, kind of primarily we do on Friday Live is we put social posts out.
• 17:05
  SPEAKER_01: This is uh LinkedIn and Facebook and uh Instagram, things along those lines.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_01: We put posts out during the week.
• 17:12
  SPEAKER_01: Mike always does uh Monday.
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_01: That's it's uh our market Monday.
• 17:16
  SPEAKER_00: We tried to use I swear I I wrote one up, but uh it's it seemed to not have gone out.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: I checked our uh compliance thing and it wasn't submitted.
• 17:25
  SPEAKER_00: And so I I don't know.
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: I apologize for that.
• 17:28
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there's a little bit of a process.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we uh we send things through compliance so that they can take a look at it and uh make sure that it's not promissory and that it's not uh that it's appropriate according to the guidelines, and we do everything we can to fit within those guidelines, but sometimes that process takes a little bit.
• 17:47
  SPEAKER_01: And uh, you know, that compliance process is a an investor protection process, and so we're good with that.
• 17:54
  SPEAKER_01: You know, we're good with investor protection measures.
• 17:57
  SPEAKER_01: Uh, but sometimes it takes a little time, uh, a little while to get those through and have folks read them and say, yeah, this is good.
• 18:03
  SPEAKER_01: We very rarely get denied on things.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_01: Um, but that's an investor protection measure.
• 18:08
  SPEAKER_01: So sometimes it takes a little bit.
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um so we do market Monday, we try to stay faithful to Tax Tuesday.
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: Uh we do And I think your campaign just ended on that, so we'll have to get some new material for Tuesdays.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I had created a uh almost four-month program uh around taxes uh a while ago and um had them running as a series.
• 18:32
  SPEAKER_01: So I gotta kind of pay.
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we everybody's taking a breath after tax season.
• 18:36
  SPEAKER_01: Um, so we do wealth management Wednesday, think ahead Thursday, and then we wrap it up on Fridays and kind of talk about some of those pieces that are out there, some of those uh different articles that we would we've had out there.
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, so the main shows this week was talking about your first week in retirement.
• 18:53
  SPEAKER_00: Just kind of, you know, you spent your whole life working, so that that time like that's a big time consumption.
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_00: So this is kind of talking about like once you hit retirement, it's gonna feel a little weird.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna have all this free time.
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: Um, maybe you need to find some new hobbies and and and make travel is a great option if you have the means to do it.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um, but it it just saying, take a breath, you know, it'll be okay.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: And this happens to everyone, everyone's a little freaked out at first.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, there's no doubt.
• 19:26
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it was interesting.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_01: I was talking to somebody yesterday that um um had discovered by the end of the year they will be retired, and and that's um that that's not that wasn't their original plan.
• 19:40
  SPEAKER_01: Uh as of the fourth quarter of last year, they had planned to work for several other years.
• 19:45
  SPEAKER_01: Some circumstances came together.
• 19:46
  SPEAKER_01: They called yesterday and said they called yesterday and said, I'm I'm gonna retire at the end of the year.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and there's a there's a lot of practical things that go into that.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_01: You know, where's the cash flow gonna come from?
• 19:57
  SPEAKER_01: I'm gonna take the capital that I've built, that's what's gonna pay for my lifestyle.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_01: It's no longer to be my intellectual physical capital.
• 20:03
  SPEAKER_01: How do we do that?
• 20:04
  SPEAKER_01: But the bigger question is exactly this what what do you do with your time?
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_01: What is your purpose?
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_01: Um and a lot of folks, uh it it is kind of like, I don't want to make it perfectly analogous, but it's kind of like, you know, vacation.
• 20:21
  SPEAKER_01: You get to vacation, the first thing you want to do is go to your favorite ice cream spot.
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_01: Well, the first thing I do is go out to the beach, check it out if I'm at a beach, and say, Oh, here it is, the ocean.
• 20:30
  SPEAKER_01: I don't live on the ocean, I'm about six hours away.
• 20:33
  SPEAKER_01: Uh you say, Oh, this is the ocean.
• 20:35
  SPEAKER_01: I had a sight, the sound.
• 20:36
  SPEAKER_01: That's great.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_01: So you ran out to the ocean, then you come back, you unpack, you go to your favorite restaurant, you go to your favorite ice cream shop, and then let's say you start your vacation on a Saturday.
• 20:45
  SPEAKER_01: By Tuesday, you're saying, okay, what do I do now?
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: You rushed into it, you said, I want to do all these things.
• 20:50
  SPEAKER_01: You check them off the list, and you're like, okay, now what?
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_01: Um, you know, am I just gonna sit on the beach and and read a book?
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: And and for a lot of folks, retirement is like that.
• 21:00
  SPEAKER_01: And so um you know it takes a lot of thought.
• 21:04
  SPEAKER_01: You know, what it what will be your purpose?
• 21:06
  SPEAKER_01: What will be your hobbies?
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_01: It's retirement is not, in my opinion, my view, my observation, uh, it is not a just a lack of work.
• 21:16
  SPEAKER_01: It it is a whole new phase of your life.
• 21:18
  SPEAKER_01: And for many people, it's a very long phase, hopefully.
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: Um, and so it's a whole new phase of life.
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_01: And what does that phase look like for you?
• 21:27
  SPEAKER_01: Uh I would submit to you the folks that are um that I've worked with, that I've talked to, that are uh most disappointed, if you will, with uh retirement.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: Oftentimes they'll go back to some other type of work, maybe it's part time work or whatever.
• 21:43
  SPEAKER_01: It's because of boredom.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_01: And um I think a lot of folks are kind of like me, you know, a bored brian's a a a bad Brian.
• 21:51
  SPEAKER_01: Uh a bored brian gets into things that are aren't healthy.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_01: Um you know, watching TV and and doing things that um aren't productive, don't move my life forward.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_01: And so the folks that are most kind of disappointed, disillusioned with retirement are the folks that are that are bored.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_01: And so it does take a lot of time to think about one, you set the stage, okay, can I do this?
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about the practical things.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_01: What do I have?
• 22:22
  SPEAKER_01: Where am I going to go?
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_01: How much can I spend?
• 22:25
  SPEAKER_01: Things along those lines.
• 22:26
  SPEAKER_01: That's where we come in.
• 22:27
  SPEAKER_01: We come in and say, okay, this is how you fund this.
• 22:31
  SPEAKER_01: These are the pitfalls that that might come along the way, whether it be taxes or downturns in the market and things along those lines.
• 22:38
  SPEAKER_01: And we solve that.
• 22:39
  SPEAKER_01: And that's a big project in the beginning.
• 22:42
  SPEAKER_01: And again, it's no, you know, it's not a whole lot different, not perfectly perfect analogy, but it's not a whole lot different for planning for you know a vacation.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_01: You know, can I run to the beach for a few days or am I going to go on a cruise for a month?
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_01: You know, can I afford that?
• 22:57
  SPEAKER_01: So you figure that out.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_01: But then you're going to have a lot of years of saying hey what what is my purpose?
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: So how do people fill those things in?
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: Number one's family.
• 23:06
  SPEAKER_01: Spend a lot more time with family, children, grandchildren, nieces, uh nephews, whatever that might be.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_01: Some people fill that with travel, which is going to be my personal preference, uh see the world and that kind of thing.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_00: And and it's important like money is always a concern, especially for new retirees, making sure they don't outlive their money, but travel while you can because there's going to be a certain point where you either can't travel or you just don't want to anymore.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_01: That's right.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: So it's important to check off those things in the early years.
• 23:38
  SPEAKER_01: It it absolutely is.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_01: And um you know there's a lot of folks that do volunteering they get back to the community and say now I have the time I have the resources to be a more integrated member of my community.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_01: I love that concept as well.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_01: But you know I'll pontificate on this you know just a little bit more health.
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_01: Health you know we tell people all the time what ruins a retirement plan?
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_01: Most people will say well it's the market it's interest rates the price of gas.
• 24:06
  SPEAKER_01: I would disagree I uh what I would say to you is really ultimately what ruins a retirement plan has nothing to do with the market or inflation or things along that certainly affects certainly affects it.
• 24:18
  SPEAKER_01: Don't get me wrong but really what are the big things um the biggest thing is really um healthcare events major healthcare events and you know and we've seen that uh from an economic standpoint major uncovered healthcare events right you don't have health coverage to cover those will ruin the whole thing not only financially but then won't change your plans moving forward uh but health events and so I would submit to people that as you're contemplating retirement when to do it um that you be very mindful of your health and Mike you bring up a great point you've seen some beautiful places and and you've done some hiking and a lot of people want to do those kind of things but I've talked to so many people in my career that say you know I wanted to do that I just don't feel like it some people say you know I can't walk around Rome for uh six hours straight you know I can't walk around the Parthenon in Greece you know or those kind of things I just can't do it.
• 25:20
  SPEAKER_01: And uh some people just reach a point it's like I just don't feel like it anyway.
• 25:24
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe I could I just don't feel like it.
• 25:26
  SPEAKER_01: So uh health uh both physical and mental health are absolutely key to this next phase in in my opinion that's part of the preparation certainly part of the preparation is save as much as you can as often as you can diversify.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_01: So that's certainly part of the preparation but it you know it that gets front page um that that gets the front page on retirement planning uh I would say the bottom of the front page should also be uh mental and physical health for sure and if you need some ideas we do have a relationship with a hobby specialist our for former partner Colin Harper he's got plenty of hobbies to give you ideas yes yes uh he has dabbled in many things um and there there's no doubt about that there there are a lot of different things that uh he has experienced enough to to uh have a a well guided opinion on many different things for sure and I want to get a mountain bike when I when I get out west and I was consulting with Colin which one I should get well he he would be you would be the person you would be the person for that for sure.
• 26:41
  SPEAKER_01: You know I'm gonna wrap up you know we talked a little bit about tax season it's madness around here we don't give tax advice uh we we do a lot of tax planning it might be a nuance to some people but it's a big difference we don't prepare taxes but during tax season we help folks gather the information this is more of their tax preparation phase hey what form do I need what do I have you know resend it to me and those kind of things um what I would say nobody likes taxes all right everybody has an aversion to taxes nobody wants to pay taxes I haven't figured that out yet so don't call us about how do I not pay taxes but we can help to plan more um uh more clearly um somewhat how much you pay not on a percentage basis the IRS details what percentage you pay on different things but how much you pay uh for it uh different parts of your tax life and when so we can't help people control if you pay taxes we can certainly help influence when you pay those taxes and who in your life pays those taxes.
• 27:49
  SPEAKER_01: Those taxes might be paid by a beneficiary when you're not here those taxes might be paid to a person that you gift money or shares to so um you know kind of wrapping up this tax season uh what I would say is uh in our tax planning we'd like to do as much as we can to avoid the surprises not saying you're gonna avoid taxes can't claim that and we'll never never will but we do whatever we can so that there are no surprises there are a lot of people that we work with and say well they want to have to pay that right now but through the planning it made a lot of sense all factors considered kind of bums me out but at least it wasn't a surprise.
• 28:31
  SPEAKER_01: So if you've had any of those tax surprises in in your world and you say geez I did not see this coming I did not recognize the magnitude of it I did not recognize how it might affect things like Medicare premiums and that kind of thing.
• 28:47
  SPEAKER_01: If you've had those surprises uh reach out to us and we might be able to help you to at least avoid the surprises and just have more control on deciding when you pay those taxes and in some scenarios if you have to pay those taxes on that pot of money at all might be pushed off to somebody else maybe there's charity that you don't have to pay those taxes.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_01: So um long story long is we really want to help uh folks avoid those tax surprises.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_01: Those are the most painful anyway that's my little dissertation on the taxes I like it.
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_00: All right so before we go next week we'll have a lot of the Mag 7 earnings reports we'll get a Fed meeting Wednesday should be a non-event um and then we'll get preliminary quarter one GDP on Thursday as well as the Fed's preferred measure of inflation the core PC deflator so we'll talk about all that uh next Friday's Friday live you're gonna have more pictures for us Mike I thought those were outstanding although I can send a picture of the desert when I get to it.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: All right let's do it all right well thanks everybody for tuning in have a great weekend we'll be back uh 1230 p.m Eastern Standard Time on Facebook to kind of wrap up uh some of those things that Mike had talked about talk a little bit about more more about financial planning and uh our life's purpose all right we'll see you next week security is offered through LPL Financial LLC member FINRA and SIPC.org advisory service is offered through LPL Financial LLC a registered investment advisor Brian Peluso Michael Kutch and David Harper are registered representatives of LPL Financial LLC content discussed is for informational purposes only and not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment strategy.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_01: Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial or its affiliates all investments involve risk including the possible loss of principal.
• 30:55
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• 30:58
  SPEAKER_01: These links are provided as a convenience only LPL Financial and its representatives are not responsible for the accuracy or content of such sites.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_01: Brian, Mike and David and HBK Provident advisors may only transact business in states where they are properly registered or exempt from registration.
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• 31:21
  SPEAKER_01: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_01: You should consult with your financial advisor, tax professional andor attorney regarding your specific situation before making any investment decisions.