Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Banks Just told Big Clients to SELL… [short squeeze warning] + Stock Market News 23 April 2024

Transcript

Banks Just told Big Clients to SELL… [short squeeze warning] + Stock Market News 23 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: just turned green and the news around apple really isn't good, but momentum pulling us back up and I want to explain that to you.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: So you're the smartest investor out there.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You understand why we actually up, because it isn't necessarily for the reasons you might think.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Now, for some reason, youtube creator studio is having a bit of a fit.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Uh, okay, no, we, we're back, we're back.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: I can see you now as well.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I can see your comments, which is brilliant With an eye on trading, absolutely, and in fact, remind me when the market opens, I need to take profits on a trade.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you about that as well.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Definitely need to do that this morning.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Some things just are so good you just got to close them when they come.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Come and join me also in 11 hours, where we will do a live trading session, and I'm not just going to teach you everything I know and how I make money and the three simple steps to do that, so you could possibly do the same thing, but I'll also teach you for free at the end, in addition, how you can ensure your portfolio so when the market does tank and it will tank again you don't lose money and you can do that free of charge.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: It's a really cool thing to understand, so I'll teach you that as well.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: So just head over to phoenixfrontsorg webinar, grab yourself a free seat and we're gonna have some, and having a funny no whiteboard.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Today Microsoft's on strike, but I'll put a few charts in the Google doc for you here.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, if you just want to see our return on capital employed the last two years, there you are under 26, 105%, and I'm not promising you those outcomes, no, but I can promise to show you how I do it and what my rules are.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: My systems are.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Now, what really happened yesterday is is this that can we?
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, brilliant.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: The most shorted stocks got squeezed hard and people seem to be acting knowing that the buyback window is.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: The blackout window for buybacks is about to expire.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: So what happens?
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: When companies report earnings for the seven days before approximately, they're not allowed to buy their own stocks, and we're in the midst of earning seasons.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: You hadn't noticed.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: To Tesla today, yay, and we know that from the end of the week, or certainly from the beginning of May onwards, the buybacks are going to come back in full force and that will be a positive, positive impetus.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Why do I keep doing this with my fist I don't really know why, and it sounds great.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Today, oh yeah, I appreciate that.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: I'm trying a different mic today, which is my, my travel mic, which is this little gizmo here which I've just clipped onto this mic which isn't plugged in, but it's the only stand I have and I figured it might actually solve the sound issues that we have sometimes the high pitch, whining noise and all of that because this thing is just better.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: So I just got another one of these.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: They're kind of podcast mics.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: They're brilliant, at least if you ever want to record something.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Rode Wireless Go 2 is what it's called.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: I'm not getting anything for this, but, honestly, best mic out there and I see everybody using these.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: Once you spot them, everybody's using them.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Everybody using this.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Once you spot them, everybody's using them.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: They're just absolutely freaking brilliant.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So that's the mic and sound issue.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Now what happens after this?
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: So what we got is that the that's basically the chart here on the right the buyback blackouts have gone up to pretty much 100%.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: So no companies allowed to buy back their own stocks within the S&P 500.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: 97% of S&P corporates have entered their blackout window, assuming entry four to six weeks prior to earnings.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So four to six weeks.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: I said seven days, didn't I?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Four to six weeks.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: So that is going to start to become better again from next week, but really from beginning of May onwards.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: So that's going to be helpful.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: And Goldman Sachs this is where this data comes from are saying that buyback activity this year, the authorized levels for 2024, are already higher than everything we had in 2023.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: And the executed trade, so the amount bought back is also more $930 billion.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: It's about as much as Biden spends every five minutes.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Last year was $830 billion for the whole year.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: We're only in April.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I'm going to say we're in April.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: $930 billion buybacks already.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: So buybacks this year should be a bonanza and therefore being in these blackout windows is ugly, but the market now expecting that to change, so that's actually quite a good thing right Now.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Have we had some good earnings out today?
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: Have we had some good earnings out today?
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: We have had Raytheon beating earnings, lockheed Martin beating by a wide margin.
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: It does seem that war pays.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, when you send 63 billion, or whatever they're sending, to Ukraine's leadership's private bank account right now, the Swiss bankers must be very thrilled right.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Then, yeah, you make a lot more money.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: They're trying to convince at the moment, greece and Spain to give up their anti-missile defences and send it to the Ukraine.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I think Spain will probably go for it.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I think the Greeks will tell them to go and stick it, because they're actually worried about their own country, I would imagine.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: But yeah, there we are.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: So we have big earnings today Tesla, visa, aftermarkets I will put out a Tesla video after this one and walk you through everything you need to know, Even if you're not a Tesla investor.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: If you are interested in the EV sector generally, or just generally, ai, robotics, whatever check out that video later on.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Pepsi beating by a wide margin.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: The sugar addicted are still drinking, even at higher prices.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: They hiked their prices like 17% this year, something like that Inflation, they said, just making more money for shareholders.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Then tomorrow we're going to get Meta and IBM and AT&T and Boeing, and we're expecting Boeing to just probably not make it and the sound will probably fail on the earnings call and that kind of thing.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: That's usually what they're known for Ford as well.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow Hilton and then Thursday Microsoft and Alphabet and Hermès, who will make all the analysts queue outside in a line and ask them to come in one at a time and then if they ask a question, they will tell them I'm not going to answer that question.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going to answer a different question, because that's how MS makes their money.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: And economic data today.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Nothing major, honestly.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: A bit of PMI data coming out today, but I wouldn't worry about that too much.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Building permits flattish, really not a huge surprise.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: But we are getting tomorrow durable goods orders, which is, you know, durable goods like cars and that kind of thing, and Thursday the big GDP growth and core PC.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: So Thursday morning 8.30 am, sit on the edge of your seat and look very, very worried.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: That's what the Fed lot is going to be doing.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Excuse my slurping here.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I had a weird protein urge today.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: Sometimes it happens when you exercise a little bit more.
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: So Spotify, I listened to it, that's your question, but it was untouched as well.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Robert says unbiased law.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Oh, nobody's unbiased.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Everybody has some sort of inbuilt bias, don't they?
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I think that's the way we all operate.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: I try to at least tell you when I am, or why I might be biased.
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Jimmy, you want a live trading training for Europe?
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: I will do one at some point later this year, for sure, but tomorrow, or today rather, is 8pm Eastern Time.
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: It's a touch late for you in Europe, I appreciate that.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: So come and join me in 11 hours and I'll teach you how I make money, the three-step system that I follow you.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: You could follow it.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: You walk away with the whole thing, the whole structure, the whole knowledge, the handouts and private groups and everything else, and I will also teach you how you can protect your portfolio from the next crash.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: And it'll cost you zero to learn.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: It'll cost you zero to do it.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So come and join me seriously in just 11 hours.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: We'll have some fun.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Take about 90 minutes or thereabouts, um.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: So Come and join me seriously in just 11 hours.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: We'll have some fun.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Take about 90 minutes or thereabouts.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Crocs says Philco.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Hi, philco, nice to have you on.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: I haven't seen you in a while.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Crocs is an interesting business indeed.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: Very, very high margin, insanely high margin for something that is so incredibly hideous that it should be banned and people who wear them should be lined up and shot.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: It's the German coming out again, isn't it?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: Can we be more inappropriate today, actually?
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, here's the most inappropriate remark I heard last week on an island.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: I was in a cafe which was owned by an Israeli chap, and I think it might have been him the owner.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: He was talking to some other Israeli friends in German and he said he had injured himself surfing.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: He went to hospital on this little island and they told him that if he wanted bandages and he was bleeding profusely from the head he had to go out and go and buy them and bring them back.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: So he described the hospital as worse than hospitals in the Gaza Strip, which I thought was quite funny and incredibly inappropriate.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, there we are.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Crocs.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, looking a little bit more bullish here.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: You've got the 150 and 200-day moving average almost crossing, but not a lot of support.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: From an options point of view, it's not really a big stock.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: It's traded a lot, so I wouldn't.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really know.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: I've never felt the urge to buy either the stock or the hideous sandals, which I'm sure some people are now going to tell me they're incredibly comfortable.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Danzo, I knew you would wear Crocs.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: I think you've told me this before.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Crocs last longer than sandals.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Welcome home, is the spy correction done?
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Can we go to 4,800?
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's look at that as well.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick look also at Okay, let's start actually here with QQQ.
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: Okay, and if it loads.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: When it loads, I'll tell you more about it.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: If you look at yesterday's institutional moves and this is all on options watchio.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: By the way, if you haven't got a free account of that yet or a premium account of that yet, there's a one month free trial.
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: So overall the consensus was fairly bearish because the buys are way below the current share price of the S&P at 4,000, 5,000.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So pretty much everything here is pretty bearish, like positioning themselves way bearish.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Okay, here is one 4975 call $30 million.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: That's going into April.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: That's a little bit more bullish, but most of these.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: And here's another one, $5,300 call $25 million.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: So there is a bit of that.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: There's a bit of Tesla profit taking on people's insurance, but mostly Tesla profit-taking on people's insurance, but mostly NVIDIA.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: People are buying puts, which is a bearish thing to do, and so overall, you can scroll through this and see the biggest trades and you could obviously also filter this by your favorite stocks, and I find it very useful, but overall that's looking somewhat brilliant.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Bionisos says Rode is a brilliant brand.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, the Shure thing.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: Isos says Rode is a brilliant brand.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, the Shure thing is rubbish.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Rode actually makes really good mics insanely good mics I'm really, really impressed by this little monster here, one of these.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: You can literally be standing like in a rainstorm, get blown away and the audio is still pretty bloody great.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: So here is the QQQ right.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: So we broke through the 50-day moving average line, here, the yellow line, and where did we stop?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Well, have a look at where is the support.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: You see the red zone, the biggest red bars, is where the support really kicks in.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: So we put a line here 416 is support.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Next one below that would be 410.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: These are your.
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: I can write that in, even I'll click on that.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Click on that.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Support is at 416 and 410.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: This is on the QQQ.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Now you can see very nicely that the 416 kind of held up the last two days.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: So we got a higher low, which is positive, and we moved up somewhat.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Now, where is the resistance then, on the way up?
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: Well, it's also at 420.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: So see that here that green bar is the resistance 420, 422.
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: So we're kind of slightly pinned to the mast here at about 420.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: It's like someone's put a nail in your back and you can't really go very much further.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: So we have this is just for today, by the way we have resistance at 420.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: And it just kind of puts us into a fairly narrow range.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I would expect us to stay in that because we're not getting big earnings today.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Tesla will not be positive.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: It'll be after the market.
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: I think the meta and the Microsoft could be very, very positive, but we have to wait till Thursday for those.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the story for today.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: If you look at the end of the week, yeah, support still sits at 415.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: You look at the end of the month, support moves from 415 down to about 410.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So 410 becomes a little bit more of a stronger line there for you.