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NFL Week 16 Gambling Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: The favorite podcast is presented by fan Duel sports Book.
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• 1:26
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Massive Massive Show. Today. It is Tuesday.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: It is the day we go through the full slate,
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: talk about every single game. Me and my bff, my companion,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Michael Padre, Professional Better, Mr Simon Hunter. Hello, Chad. Listen,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: we just had our longest prep meeting ever, our pre
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: show meeting. Matt Mitchell gave us so many notes for
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the rundown, almost all of it prompted by feedback from fans.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: As I have said, feedback is a gift. We love
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: getting it. Reminder, we're going to run through the full slate.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about our Simon says, Bet, We're gonna
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: probably get to a foxhole, will probably do big balls
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: bet on Thursday, when we narrow down the slate, we
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: will do scooch Roulette. A couple of things that people
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: really waited on. I said a couple of weeks ago.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: People said they didn't like having Tina our voice of scheduling.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals are back on their bullshit. I said, if
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: the silent majority speaks up, she'll come back. The silent
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: majority has spoken. Most of you get that. Tina is
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: there to tell you what the next game is. She's
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the traffic cop. People like her, they want her. I've
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: gotten a lot of personal d ms about it. We're
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: bringing Tina back. Let's do this number two. People have
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: asked a lot about the show Convinced Me that we
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: reference on the podcast. Convinced Me is a live show.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: It is not a podcast. It is a live show
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: that we do on the Action Network HQ Twitter handle
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: and on the Action Network YouTube page on Sunday mornings
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: at eleven a m. Eastern. It's me, it's Simon, it's
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: other Action Network experts, Sean Kroner and Chris Raybon. The
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: three of them try to convince me, Chad, what bets
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: I should make that day, what player prop, what side
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I should make, and what total I should make. The
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: three of them compete. I make the choice based on
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: their analysis. It's a really fun show. It's thirty minutes,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: not a podcast. Live show you can only get at
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: eleven am and after you can get it through the
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: rest of the day. That's two. A lot of people
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: were getting tired of the Mike Tomlin drops. What not
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: that they don't like them, they just want a new one.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell has spent hours bringing in new Tomlin drops.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed them. That's right, Chad. I actually
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: spoke to coach Mike Tomlin about this. I told him
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: that our listeners thought that he had lost his edge
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: and that his clips were redundant and weren't fun anymore.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Here's what he had to say about that. So be it.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: We set responsibility for that. We will not go gently.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: We're gonna unleash hell here in December. We're gonna go
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: into a mode because we have to, because that's what's required.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: Let's three, Simon. If I'm missing anything, let me know. Three.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Our final picks. We're getting so many questions about our
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: final picks. What we do like for the five because
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: we'll talk about the full slate today, will narrow down
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: on Thursday Sunday morning, Simon and I choose our five.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: I put those in the Action Network gap on Twitter.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: You can download it for free, you can follow me,
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: you can get them. Simon also puts them out on Twitter,
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: so you can see him on Twitter, you can see
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: him in the app. What we are going to do,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: because clearly we're not doing this right. We're going to
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: create a new handle, a new profile in the Action
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: Network app. Again downloaded for free. It's super easy. When
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: you've downloaded it. There's a little button at the bottom,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: this is follow. We're going to create a handle that
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: says the faves five, the faves five. That's where we
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: will start putting our picks. Matt Mitchell, I blame you
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: bad producing. We should have done that from the very
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: beginning of the year. We'll see you guys in the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: September September. I don't know what the funk you were thinking. Finally,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: let's do a quick review of what happened this past
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: weekend because it was consequential one of your five big
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: bets of the year. Well, Los Angeles Chargers plus three
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: and a half. There wasn't a moment in that game
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: where I didn't think the Chargers were going to cover
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: that game until over time. They were just the better team.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Like the entire game, they were doing better things. I
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: was a little worried after that kickoff when they didn't score.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: It seemed like they're play calling like inside the five.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: They became a different team, and that was frustrating. We
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: haven't talked about it at all. I did not want it.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: We didn't text about it, we didn't slack about it.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: We didn't talk about it on Sunday. We have not
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: discussed it. This town is a make you town is
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: a break you down? Yeah, buddy, holy ship upsetting. I
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: don't even know. I still have to say, like, I
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: wish I didn't bet. I really do. I wish this
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: was a fictional show that I didn't place real money,
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: because that was just a kick kick in the face.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, I've I've had a few times in my
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: life I had other people reach out to me after
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: a bet and make sure I'm okay. I feel like
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: I got flooded with people like I was like on
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: suicide wash and it wasn't even that bad. It was
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: just like stunned. Every time someone says analytics and angel
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: loses its wings. And I'm not a huge social media
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: person in the first place, but there are certain words
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: I'll just blacklist, and I added that to the list.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: That's my mute. I muted the word on Twitter because
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: I just can't take it anymore. I am all about analytics.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: I'm all about the math. Like I think that's the
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: biggest thing they've added to football is that's that's how
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: you win games. The Eagle Super Bowl run with Doug Peterson,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: we won because analytics. He was going from fourth downs,
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: but he wasn't going for it every fourth down. And
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: you can say which you want about that. The Chargers game,
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: there is no analytics in the world you can find that.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: Before halftime. You don't kick a field goal there. You
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: have the ball all the other in the chief's territory.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: If you kick a field goal, you're up seven for
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. That's a key number seven. There is no
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: field position there. It's before halftime. Okay, it's not as
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: if you miss the field goal, it doesn't matter that
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: the half's over. That's why you go for it on
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: fourth down because you're already pinning the team back defensively.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So that means, yeah, if it's the middle of the
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: third quarter, go for it on fourth down. If it's
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: fourth and two at the two, yes, I mean it
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: still makes me sick to my start thinking about it.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: But that's what's being a pro is I chased horribly
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: on Saturday, and I got all the money back, thank god.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: But it was all rage bet Like I told you
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: guys on I think it was Friday, A professional I
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: knew was betting you a B which is some college
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: football game. So I bet that took all the winnings,
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: put it on the Colts, and it was just pure
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: funk the system, funck the public, like these assholes are
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: giving me my money back, and I would just bummed
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: out because again, like you know it is we do
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: this show, I'm giving out the clients. It's just a
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: lot of people are relying on my info and in
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: and this is like that where you're feeling good the
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: entire game. It's it's the worst feeling. Clear. We we
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: bury it. We move on. But no, I'm I'm probably
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: gonna spend another hundred k on therapy trying to get
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: over that game. We did. We we did bury it.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: And I also, like you, look, if if if the
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Chargers had gotten blown out in that game, I would
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: feel bad. But the Chargers were in that game, and
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: we got burned by sort of really outside the lane,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: thinking that even for a game in which we expect
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: outside the lane, thinking it was outside those lanes. I
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: like you. I bet the Colts heavy at two and
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: a half. I bet it. I made my money back.
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: We had Indian Contest, we had the Chargers the next day.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: We had Denver in Atlanta. That didn't work out for us.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: We did have Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh whom after the show convinced me.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: I already had him at plus one and a half.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: I bet him on the money line before the game,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: and then when they were downten nothing, I bet him
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: at plus two hundred of the money line. So what
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: do you think of that, Simon? I was scared, honestly,
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: when they were down ten, I was like, oh my god,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: I would They finished with a hundred and fifty yards total.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: But we got to cover. That's all that matters. But
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: that's the classic. We didn't deserve it, but Tannehill gave
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: us what was a four turnovers kind of a gift
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: day Tennessee to just really gave away that game. Forget
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: the opponent, the nameless great faces. Yeah it was it
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: was rough. Of course, I gave it all back when
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I bet the Packers minus three and a half, and
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: so that was kind of a kick in the Dick
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: the way they lost that game, so it ended up
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: being a pretty ugly day for me. A couple of
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: quick things to review. We're going to get to the show.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Last week, our foxhold bet was the Colts are Simon says,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: bet was Atlanta. Scoot Roulette for Simon was the Colt
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: was for me? For me, it was the Falcons. So Simon,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: you want Scott. I'm dominating in Scoot like you don't
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: want to know that record yet. Speaking of Scoot Roulette,
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: we may or may not have a special guest for
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: our last show of the calendar year. I'm just saying guests. Yeah,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: and what's the exact day? Is the THIRTI big all right,
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: very quickly, very very quickly. We're going against all the
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: rules that Matt Mitchell told this pre show, which was
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: just be tight before you get to the games. Uh.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: It is Tuesday afternoon. We're recording this. About five people
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: will listen to this show before the Washington football team
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: and the Eagles play, and before the Rams and the
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Seahawks play. Do you have any thoughts on those games
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: right now tonight? YEP. If you for listening to this
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: and you're lucky enough, take Washington Football team first half
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: money line Worlands spread, Eagles coming off not playing any
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: games for over fourteen days now because they've been on
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: a bye week. Then the game I pushed to Tuesday, long,
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: long layout for an Eagles team, and they're getting good
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: value now in Washington football team, they're having a third
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: shrink quarterback coming and play for them, So to me,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: this will be a sloppy first half. I'd either take
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the under or just take the money line with Washington
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: football team trying to get a little lucky. Um. Not
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: a great read on that. Then the Rams Seahawks game, Like,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: deep down, I wanted to just take the Seahawks. I
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: think you're getting a good number divisional matchup. But again
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: we're all talk about it's just so to predict anything
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: with all this crapping on the COVID, so I don't
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: know professional in me, it's like one of these dogs
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: have to cover. I would take the Seahawks here at
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: that number. That's a big number for this divisional matchup
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: and it's still Russell Wilson. Alright, Tina, welcome back from exile.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Who do we go first? San Francisco forty Niners at
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. This can't be right. Forty Niners on the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: road three and a half point favorites against the Titans.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Come on, I know this is like the Chargers all
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: over again. Like, of course we're supposed to take Tennessee here. Yeah,
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: this is ridiculous. Probably one of the tougher teams in
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: all football. They're just a bruising team and they dominate
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: up front. And that's what's been huge for this fourty
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: Niners team. Is there one of the stronger teams on
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: offensive line and d line, and that's how they dominate
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: these teams to impose their will. I hate it. I
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: hate that we have to take Tennessee here. What we
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: do this is a classic. We're buying low in Tennessee.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: I make this line of pick the fact again, three
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: and a half points. It's it's crazy, it's the hype
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: is as as you can get. Atlanta gave away that
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: game slash cover. They were I believe, over sixteen inside
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the five yard line. Like again, let's let's process that
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: they got in there four times, it came away with
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: zero points inside the five yard line. WHOA, that's you
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: can't really depend on those kind of things. Especially with
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: this Tennessee team. They just had arguing one of their
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: worst games of the year against Pittsburgh that was completely
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: meltdown by them. Now they're coming home short weeks, are
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: feeling great. I I don't know, like, of course we
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: have to take Kindnessee. But if I'm gonna am I
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: gonna make this one of our five. I don't know, Chad,
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: but love love Tennessee. Here has to take this number
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: every time immediately. This is bright red siren inflamed. Take this.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: This is crazy. The Titans defense is so much better
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: than we thought they were earlier in the year. The
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Ford Niners are a very physical team that have also
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: been benefiting from having some pretty bad defenses, and this
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: is not a team that you can sort of make
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: mistakes against. The Times are getting a little bit healthier
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: at their skill positions. People say I'm too low in
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: the forty Niners. I get it. They're they're healthy, They're
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: clicking on all the cylinders here. But if you go
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: up by just the math, you're basing off the math
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: offline movement and adjustment and what the public is gonna do.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: You're probably gotta bet in chance of covering this number. Blindly.
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: So that means you're already slanted towards taking this Tennessee team,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: and we look at the data, it's probably gonna even
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: bumped that number up even more. So it's hard to
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: pass on this one. But I just don't know if
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: I can make it one of our five right now.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers. This line is escalated
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: a bit. Packers minus seven. Browns made a show last
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: night against the against the Las Vegas Raiders. Nick mullins,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: he really looked, you know, serviceable and showed some heart
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: with that team exactly. It's I mean, there's no there's
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: nothing we can really do. That's that's the problem with
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: this season. It's like all this COVID stuff. I mean,
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: the worst one to me, my biggest miss last week
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: had to have been that Saints one. We always love
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: taking the Saints. We love fading Brady and the Sean Bred.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: The Champagne being out was what just spooked me completely.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: And it's like once again I got due by COVID.
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: It was it did not matter, not nothing mattered. Again.
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: The reason we should have taken that game was just
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: the defensive matchup, how they match up against Stampus. So
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: that's what's hard with the reading these ones. It's like
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: those are big misses, this Browns one. If it was
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: a normal year, I'd be all over the Browns, but
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: because of everything going with COVID, it makes me want
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: to go towards Green Bay. They're the healthier team. They've
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: been practicing the last couple of weeks together. That's the thing.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: People again, these Brown's players haven't been practicing, They've just
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: been sitting out. They can't come into the facility. So yeah,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: it's like, maybe I'll change once we maybe next show.
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: But as we sit here on Tuesday with limited information
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: we have and I don't really know, like if it's
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Nick Mullins, Aaron Rodgers or case key members Aaron Rodgers
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: and Lambeau. Yeah, I'm I'm taking Aaron Rodgers. And it's
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: funny we're sitting here late December. We we joked off
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: somewhere about it, Chad one. That's what the Green Bay
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: was to win the Super Bowl one, and that was
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: all because of rumors about Rogers leaving. Now I think
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: they're what plus four fifty to win the Super Bowl,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: So that's that's probably one of the few bets. I'm
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: gonna end up making good money on being able to
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: head you that out because we know they're gonna lose
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: the NFC Championship game. That's what Green Bay does. But
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: right now you have to feel great if you have
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: one for this Green Bay team. Actually, I thought about
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: this the other night when they were up seventeen and
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: I was feeling really good, and they had the ball
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: on the thirty yard line of the Ravens, and I
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: had bet minus three and a half live, thinking I
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: m a live betting genius, and I had already in
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: my head reprogrammed how I'm betting going forward, which was
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: instead of feeling like I have to bet every game,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: betting the game I feel most comfortable about with bigger
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: numbers and then adjusting those games live, especially if I
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: feel like the team that is better ends up down early,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: because then all of a sudden, I'm just getting a
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: better number, and then the Packers regressed and all of
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: a sudden, for the first time all season, didn't cover
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: against the team with the backup quarterback and no defensive backs.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: Now it's the never ending back doors Chad. Whatever side
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: we're on, I'm just assuming we're gonna get back door
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: now you can Alwa's coming. Doesn't it feel like we've
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: been playing from behind all year? Yeah, things just haven't
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: bounced our way. That's just gambling. I mean, you can
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: put all the work and all the all the time,
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: and you still need the ball to bounce your way.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: And that's that's been It's been very humbling, humbling these
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: last couple of weeks where we're on the wrong side
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: of a lot of these ones, and a lot of
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: these ones that come down the final play um brutal,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: especially like last night that bears they should have covered
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: that seven and they don't kick the extra point because
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: that rule and it's just like typical, typical of typical,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: they don't push on that sudding. I do think it's
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: brought us closer. Yeah, this is when you say, I agree.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I agree. We've been in the foxhole. We haven't killed
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: each other, we haven't blamed each other, we haven't gotten
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: angry about it. We've made choices collectively individually, and it's
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: worked out like we're still buddies. No, it's the best.
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: Thank you for the olive oil. You're bet Indianapolis Cults
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: at Arizona Cardinals let's see, the Colts are one and
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: a half point underdogs on the road Arizona. Maybe their pick.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Cardinals are pick. This is an interesting one.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: This is an interesting one. Do you have a strong
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: opinion on this already? Of course it's the Colts. Tell
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: me why you think that? Well? Actually, surprisingly I love
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: the Arizona here, Cold Steam. It's inflated that the Cults
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: were plus three plus three and a half. Yeah, I'd
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: be all over them. But the fact that it's moved
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: down this number, it's the books are laying a trap. This.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: This feels incredibly trappy, just like the Patriots felt against
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: this Cold Steam last week. Um, right now your book
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: you have one and a half, which means you can
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: tease us up to seven and a half. I just
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: can't see why they would be doing that. Same with
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: I felt with the Patriots last week. It kind of
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: felt like they knew people would be tasing these standalone games,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: and they're giving you a number to get you across
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: a square number that like they know like someone especially
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: to me, if I see seven a half, I love
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: that number. The public even more so so when I
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: saw this line initially, I immediately saw trap Um, when
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: looked at the numbers, I made this line minus three
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: for the Cardinals. So I'm getting a point and a
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: half for the Cardinals. I'll take the value. But I
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: hate going against my cold steam because I don't know
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: if you remember, this is like my all end team
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: of this season. So I I'm just playing the position
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: the spots. The bookmakers had the Colts win in ten
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: wins before the season started and went all the way
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: down to eight seven and a half once Carson Wentz
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: got hurt to start the year. They lose this game,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: they win there next to they'll finish the year tenant seven,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: right where the bookmakers had. This just feels like a
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: scheduled boss for this Colts team, this kind of match up,
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: Arizona get embarrassed against the lines. I know Matt Mitchell
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: wants us to fade fade hard Kingsbury, but I can't
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: can't do in this position. Um, I'll either stay away,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: I'll just take the Cardinals. Cliff Kingsbury, Well, it's interesting
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: because when I was first asked me the question and
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: you said the Colts, and then you said, actually I
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: love the Cardinals. Here this to me, purely thinking about
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: market logic was Cardinals, Cardinals, Cardinals. You got the Colts
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: beating the super hot everyone believes they're going to the
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl Patriots in prime time and holding them off
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: with a spectacular Jonathan Taylor run to really close the door,
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: and you got the Cardinals losing to the Lions. Like,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: of course the Cardinals are going to be deflated. Of
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: course the Colts are going to be inflated. Of course
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: you're gonna go with the Cardinals in this game. Forget
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: about Cliff Kingsbury, forgot forget about DeAndre Hopkins dizzy playing
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: or not. You've got a team that all of a
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: sudden feels like it's season, might be spiraling, a really
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: good defense, and they're playing at home. They've actually been
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: bad at home. That's again, so there's a bunch of
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: little thing that's great about the Cardinal team there two
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: and four at home against the spread. Um, the biggest
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: things they might be broken. That's the biggest fear right
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: now is like they didn't look good against the Bears.
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: We were all on that. We said they got lucky
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: because all the short field Danny Dollon game to him.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: They got dominated by the Rams again that game looks
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: closer on paper because they got that last touchdown the
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: very end of the game to make it was there.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: They didn't look right in that game, and the Lions
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: game was wild. The Lions didn't have Swift or their
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: number one tight end, and they absolutely dominated this Cardinals team.
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: So for me, if if this wasn't such bad usual
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: with the Cardinals, this is no doubt would be either
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: my Simon says or foxhold bet Like I immediately this
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: one jumped off the paper to me. But the years
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: they're broken and we already don't like their head coach.
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is what we do. We fade this guy.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what to think. Here is just
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: on Tuesday, but I just know that, I mean, they're
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the Cardinals or I'm just gonna pass
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: on this one. I know there's no chance I'll have
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: money on the Colts. It's funny when you say a
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: team is broken that that ascribes such an emotional element
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: to it. When I think of something that's broken like
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: the way you're describing it to me, it feels like
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: something that is broken emotionally. Yeah, that's what these analytic
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: little nerds don't get. This half of football is mental.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: That's why these teams, like you just talked about that
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Green Bay, they turned it off and they couldn't turn
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: it back on, so the Ravens were easily able to
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: come back on them. So we've seen the time and
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: time again with these football teams. These teams get these
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: big leads and they let them teams come back because
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: football is such a mental game. Momentum can flip so
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: easily in this kind of this sport, the way it's played.
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: So it's just bad juju taking the Cardinals right now?
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Do you feel it too? Are you? Just like, No,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I'm not worried. I'm not worried. I think it's the
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: exact right spots. Take the Cardinals. Yeah, that's what I mean.
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: We have to either take it or pass. It's like
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: it's yeah, you can't take the Colts here. I'm taking
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: the emotion out of it, out of my decision making.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree it's an emotional game players are playing it.
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: But for me, overrated, underrated, over inflated, under inflated, bad performance,
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: good performance, public loves it, public against it. That's checking
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: all the boxes. Matt Mitchell has reminded us in slack
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: that he he You know, he's the original fade Cliff Kingsbury.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: He did a very funny video last year about how
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: much he hated Cliff Kingsbury the second half of the
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: year because he couldn't even win when he had Patrick
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: Mahomes of Texas Tech. Week ten of this year, Cliff
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: Kingsbury was beaten by Cam Newton, who has turned out
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: to be not so much resurgent. In week eleven, they
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: defeated Russell Wilson and his mangled finger. In Week thirteen,
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: they beat the Bears and Andy Dalton with thing but
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: short fields. In week fourteen, they were Matt Stafford's first
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: big win ever, the first time that Matt Stafford ever
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: beat a team five games plus over five hundred and
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: then in week fifteen they were destroyed by Jared goff
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: So two and three with wins over Andy Dalton and
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: a mangled Russell Wilson. That's why we're on the Cardinals
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: this week, folks. Right, Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons. The
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: Lions are say, five and a half point underdogs right now.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Oh God, I hate taking chalk like these lines have
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: been so good to us, but we have to at
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: this point, this Lines kind of moved to move too
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: far at this point. Jared Goffs on the COVID list,
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: I saw yesterday Atlanta. They're bad. Like, I'm not gonna
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna defend it anymore. Like people keep saying
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: they beat they beat a bunch of nobody teams. That's fair.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: This is a nobody team. Like again the Lines that
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: was incredible win last week, they're bad again. They've been
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: good against the spread, They're just not a team that
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: knows how to win. So them coming off a big
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: win like they just did. We saw what happened and
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: they went to go play Denver, they had a complete
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: letdown the following week. I guess we have to bank
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: on it again. But the fact that Atlanta is coming
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: off a bad loss, the one that they gave away
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: so many opportunity to score points, I just can't see
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: Atlanta having such a bad week. They got the veteran
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: quarterback and Matt Ryan, who statistically has actually been really
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: good this year. I know you don't think that because
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: we saw him go over sixteen inside the five yard line,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: but Matt's been good this year, especially on throws downfield.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: So against a team like Detroit that their biggest weakness
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: is that secondary. This is just a nice matchup for
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: this Atlanta team and I would take it. But again,
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: it's already feel confident about it, you know what I mean, Chadd,
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: It's like we just got burned so bad by Atlanta.
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: I bet this one, I think Monday night. I'll bet
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: it again a couple of times this week as long
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: as it keeps moving my way. Um, I just know
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: the publics can be coming on Detroit and I hate
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: I hate public dogs. You should hate public dogs when
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: they're connect to the Detroit lines. Yeah, that's I mean,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: we've we've swerved on that each time they've been the
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: public dog, and it's worked out for us. I think
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: it was what the Eagles and then against Denver both times.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers, this is interesting. The
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: Panthers are eleven point home dogs to me when where
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: When I saw this, I knew this is gonna be
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: one of my bets. I'll do it as a foxhole.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: Let's clide down into the foxhole. There's no no one
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: else is gonna joining us, Chad. Only a few people
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: will bet this number. But with all the injuries that
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: the Buccaneers have had, this plays right into the strength
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: of this Carolina team. Carolina has a really good secondary.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Now I'll have to do is double a B double grounk.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: They don't have four nets. They are Ronald Jones in
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: that backfield. God wins out for the season. No one's
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: real sure if Evan's gonna play in this game. I
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: love I would love to take rading this bounce back position.
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: But the fact that this line was six and a
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: half seven and now it's bloomed all up to eleven
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: just because again Killen didn have a kicker in that
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: game against Buffalo. They would have covered that number if
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: they had a kicker. They had plenty opportunities to cover
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: that number, and they simply couldn't because they had to
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: go for it all fourth down. I think we're gonna
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: get the value here. I they would have covered last
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: week Carolina. I can see this number being eight, maybe
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: eight and a half, just because the Teasers, trying to
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: keep Tampa Bay out of that value zone. Got no
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: doubt Tampa bounced back here. That's just too many points
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: for such a banged up Tampa team. So if you're
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: a fan of this show. You bet these ugly games
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: with us. You have to bet this one. This is
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: an ugly number. It's divisional, they're at home. You have
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: to take this number. If you're listening to this show
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: and you don't bet this game and you like to bet,
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: If you're deciding on Sunday, I'm gonna put some money
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: on NFL football and this isn't a game you bet,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: then you've learned nothing. Let me give you some context.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: Right now, two of the bets are coming in in
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: the bucks, nearly fifty of the money coming in on
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: the Panthers. This is going to be the Pro Joe
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: game of the week. Overvalued, undervalued, home dog of more
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: than a touchdown, of the bets coming in on the
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: road favorite. All of these things singles in the noise
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: for the underdone Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets. Is
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: this the week that we bet on the Jets less
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: than a field goal favorite? Oh God? This Jaguars team
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: man so so bad. Luckily I was on the number,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: but I faded them in our money Lyne round Robin,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I just said, Houston's up the plus two hundred. At
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: that point, we had to take Houston. So I don't
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: know what to make of the Jaguar team. Just looking
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: at on paper again, I've got to my head if
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: it gets the plus three, I'm it's the Jets and Jaguars.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: I'll take the Jaguars plus three. It's just, how do
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: you have any confidence? But the quarterback Zack Wilson, he's
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: good for a quarter, he's terrible for three quarters. Lawrence
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: might be an absolute bust. His regression has been alarming.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: He's gotten worse every game this year on. His full
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: work has gotten terrible. His reads are terrible. So yeah,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: we can we can move on. I'm not betting this game.
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: I'll either take the plus through. I just won't touch it.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I think that's an incendiary hot take Steven a statement
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: to say Trevor Lawrence is a bust. Certainly he's regressed,
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: but that team is a fucking dumpster fire. He's got
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: a coach who doesn't know how to coach anyone over
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: twenty one years old, has no support whatsoever, and is
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: basically having to tell the coach, hey, you might want
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: to put the best players on the field. Give this
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: guy a chance to get right with a coach who
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: they believe will be there for a while with a
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: guy who understands how to create coherence, who understands how
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: to create an offense that he can learn. I'm not
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: ready to throw it all the way. And Trevor Lawren again,
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: you don't get the mental part of football, Chad, you're
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: a nerd. But in all the seriousness, he's wilted. He's
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: only the biggest loser franchise in the history of football.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Everything about him just screams Boston and even come of
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: the year, I didn't really trust him. I was just like,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: you know what, I'll get benefit of the doubts of
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: these scouts are saying this kid the next Peyton, like
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: he's one of the best prospects coming out. He's big,
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: he's tall, he's strong, he's fast, good arm. His mental
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: is so bad, like he's just fucking stupid. So, yeah,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: you're right, if they get the right coach in there,
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: maybe you can fix them. But to me, fading the
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: Jags it's easy to do. They've just never produced a
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: good quarterback. I mean, what Mark Brunel, when, when the
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: hell was that? So I don't know, just I just
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: don't have faith in the franchise. And their decision making.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe you're right he'll be able to bounce back from it,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: but I've seen it with Sam Donald. I've just seen
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: these quarterbacks lose it. They lose that step, they lose
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: that confidence. It's over. Well, look, it's no different than
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: the scouts saying he's the next Peyton Manning. You know,
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: you can be as wrong if you're being hyperbolic about
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: how great he can be as you are about how
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: bad he is after seeing no games. He's Peyton Manning
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: after seeing thirteen games, fourteen games, whatever it is, he's
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: a bust, could be somewhere in between. But just look
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: at your boy. Fields. Fields is being get slaughtered and
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: every path, every time he drops back, he's getting hit.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: No matter what. He was making big throws last night,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: pig throws downfield. That that's resilience. He's coming back. He
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: was fighting. He put that touch on end. That was
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: your rulling at the end of the game. That's what
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: you're looking for for these rookies. New York Giants at
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are playing at night. Their ten
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: point favorites in this game. Obviously a lot can change.
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: Mike Glennon is playing quarterback for the Giants. We don't
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: know enough yet to really dig in on this game.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: My suggestion is what we reevaluate this game on Thursday? Yeah,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: my suggestions. If you get ten and a half, I
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: grab it and then you can just buy out of
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: it later. Um, just in case the Eagles look like
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: ship and lose, this number will drop by like three points.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: So to me, I would just take that number real quick,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: because that's a that's a big, big number for a
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: divisional matchup between these two. They I used, I used
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: Simon saying no, I can't do that because, like you
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: just said, we don't really know what the canna happened
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: with this Eagles matchup, And because of I don't know,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I don't want to go against my Eagles best bet
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: of the week, and because of COVID a little bit,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: because who knows. Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans. So
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: the Chargers break our heart, they strike a lightning boat
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: through the core of our beings. Talk about emotional. They're
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: on the road now against the Texans nine and a
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: half point favorites and weight on it. It's one of
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: those games. I just wait, you'll bet you hopefully you'll
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: be able to get a ten or something with Houston.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: But Chargers team they usually beat up on these bad teams.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: So um, I'm a little scary taking Houston team off
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: a win. But I've seen it time and time again.
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: The Houston team plays, they play well at home, and
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: we've seen Davis Mills say what you want about them.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: He might have been the second or third best rookie
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: this season. I mean, the kid is again he's only
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: beating the Jaguars. I get that he's not that that's
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: nothing to really ho hum about, but a lot of
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: these games he keeps them in close, he makes big
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: throw So I don't know. I feel like the value
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: right now is technically on the Chargers because at the
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: key number of ten, but I just couldn't. I just
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: don't feel comfortable taking that that big of a number,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: so I probably wait and hopefully take Houston here. I
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: agree with you. I think Texan is going to be
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: the right side when it all comes down to it,
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: and the money and the picks are coming in on
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. But if we're gonna be willing to take
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the Panthers in similar situations against a much better team
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: in the box, I can't not take the Texans, who
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: I think have shown the ability to keep these games close,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: and like you said, with Davis Mills perform much better
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: than we expected against the Charger scene. That is just
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: doing consistent and I think, like you talk about emotion,
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: it's hard to come back from what they lost on Thursday.
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: It isn't. It isn't though they didn't think they're in
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: the wrong. They thought they did everything right. So to me,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: they're they're probably just thinking, you know what, that's what
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: we do, that's how why we are we we are
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: this year, so I don't seem affecting that much. But
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: everything you said, it's true. If you're willing to take Carolina,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: you kind of have to take the Texans for the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: same exact reason. It's just way too big of a
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: number for a team that deserve all that respect. Buffalo
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Bills at New England Patriots. The Bills anywhere from one
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: and a half to two and a half point dogs
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: against the Patriots on the road. Is this the week,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: my friend, were you buy into Mac Jones um again?
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: I would love to keep crushing Mac Jones because Patriots
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: fans are like the worst fan base in the world.
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: But he's good man. Like that was unbelievable what he
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: did in that Colds matchup, Like everything I thought was
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: gonna happen did happen. He was looked like a rookie.
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: He got dominated scheme wise, he just could not figot
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: that Colts defense, and then he figured it out and
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: he was very cool, common collective. Even the fact that
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: he was getting punched in the mouth on multiple plays,
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: like he was really getting hit, popping right back up,
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: making big throws. I fucking hate it, man, It's like
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: crazy the Patriots go from Tom Brady to fucking mac
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: Jones and honestly really pisces me off. But he's by
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: far the best rookie, Like I can't there's no denying
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: that this kid is toughest ship, he's smart, and he
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: makes big throws and like that of me is one
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: of the most important things in football. It's like, can
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: you get hit in the mouth, throw a bad pick,
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: they come out, throw a touchdown, Like that's that's how
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: that's how you know you can be in this league.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: You just get over and move on the next play.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: What the funk? This number is too too much? Like
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be It's about to be plus three? What
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: are we doing here? I had to take the bills.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: I have to put bills and teasers. I don't know.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: To me, this is like the bills, not super Bowl.
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: But like this is what they've been thinking about for
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: two weeks, Like they just want to get back at
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: this Patriots team so bad they got embarrassed at home.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: It's it's scaring me that it's moving this much because
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: that means a lot of professional money is coming on
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the Patriots, and they obviously have a read on this.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: But the few games this week where it's a no brainer,
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: too easier. It's this bill is number this this number
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: great for teasing. You can tease it up to eight
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: and a half right now if you have a two
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: and a half line in your book. Um, I like
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: this bills number a lot, especially if it reaches three.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: What what did you power rated at pick? I just
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I honestly didn't know what to really do with it.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Like I gave a little bit of a home field
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: advantage of this Patriots team, so that's why I I
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: almost made them minus one. But based off matchups, what
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: what each team can do? They were they think it's
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: gonna be good weather in the on the East coast.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: Is this upcoming? How it's like, you know, Christmas is Saturday,
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: they play Sunday, e supposing it supposed to be a
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: nice day. Everything points to me taking the bills. But
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: it's so hard to do on a Tuesday, That's what
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: I mean. Like if there was no COVID, I'd be
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: all over this number right now. But to me, it's
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: kind of one of you have to wait, just because
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: both these teams it's it's so it's so close. It
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: really is a pick, like both these teams are just
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: so equal. Um, I just can't give it out right now.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: The Patriots have been one of your blind spots all season.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: We just fucking won on the Colts against the Patriots.
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah once once, all right. We won Week one with
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Miami against them. We won with the Saints against them twice,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: three times. Somebody slam child at Chad. I feel like
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I was on the Colts as much as anybody. I
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: might have swayed you onto the Colts. You were becoming
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: like a mac Jones sycophant. That's not true, anyone. We
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: want on the Patriots against the Tennessee Titans, which I
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: had to beg you to take the New England minus
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: six against the Tennessee Titans. So I'm I'm all right
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: with this Patriots team. I haven't done terrible with them.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: I like the Bills in the spot too. The Holidays
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• 38:36
  Speaker 1: we want to hold off on this till Thursday. Los
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings Rams are two and a
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: half point favorites. Right now, take the Rams like this,
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: this is my Simons says bet. But the problem, I
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: know the problem is COVID. I would love for people
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: to take this number now before the Rams do play,
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: just in case they do blow out the Seattle team.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: But I don't know what to do, just because it's
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: just there's so much unknowns, so much can change. But
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: from now until Sunday, so it's tough to say, but
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: we can mark it down. As my Simon says, be
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: very cowardly. I'm going to give you the opportunity to
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: change your mind on Thursday. Thank you. It's a lot
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: going on. It's gonna be a big public side too.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: Like I sorry to cut you off, but I know
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: the Rams are gonna be a huge public side. But
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: to me, it's just crazy that numbers under three. Baltimore
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals. The Ravens now two and a
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: half point dogs on the road against the Bengals, who
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: if you recall the last time the Ravens played the Bengals,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: we said, bet the Bengals future as to win the
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: a f C North now because they're gonna change, And
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: sure enough they beat the Ravens. The odds changed now
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: their first place team. Yeah, there were plus a thousand
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: when we said that. So it's if you've been waiting
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: to hedge, you can hedge now. You can let it
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: ride if you believe in the Bengals of this matchup.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: But again, you're gonna see a pattern here people. If
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: if this hits plus three, we take the Ravens every
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: single time, and this in a late December matchup, not
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: even going off the head coach discrepancy like hardball. Is
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: that much better of a head coach than well, we
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: have what we have with the Bengals. But to me,
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: this Ravens team, if they lose, they lose clothes. Okay,
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: and you're getting a plus three number. We've been burned
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: by them with these numbers. Okay, the numbers matter in
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: each matchup they've had. Even though they've lost these games,
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: they've been covering. So maybe I'll finally get burned by
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: finally going against the going with the Ravens team, but
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: I have to do it. If it's plus three in
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: this divisional matchup, I have to take it completely. Agree,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: it's hard. It's hard, Like you look at this and think, like,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: what's from our Jackson's status. They're losing all these defensive backs.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: But when you talk about analytics, we talked about it
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: earlier in the show, Hardball plays it differently than say,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Brandon Staley does. We're Brandon Staley seems to be running
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: some kind of meta experiment about analytics. Hardball is actually
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: playing the game of analytics. Soe he even even Hardball
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: sucked it up though, Like the first touchdown he got
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: when they were down fourteen, that's when you go for two,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: not not the second touchdown, You go for it on
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: the first touchdown, because then if you missed the first touchdown,
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: then you go from the second touchdown and make it
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: a fourteen point game. So again, that's that's what I'm saying, Like,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: it's it's so hard on handicap these games because these
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: coaches are smart, but they're fucking idiots at the same time.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: It's it's just tough where it's like, yeah, hardball gets
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the analytics, but he funked it up where it's like, no,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: the first touchdown, you go for two, not the second touchdown.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: But again, whatever, I like how I try to make
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: a point and then you tell me how I'm completely wrong,
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: but you're what you're saying is true though, like they're
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: more accepting of it, but it's just horriball in that instance,
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: messed it up. Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks Bears plus
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: seven at Seattle, keep it moving. Well, I'll take the
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Bears and I'll lose money again because Matt Maggie is
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: an awful head coach. But the Bears are the worst
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: underdog team statistically ever under Matt Naggie. Like there's never
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: been a worst team at covering as an underdog than
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: they have been with Matt Maaggie. So I don't bet
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: this game. People. Yeah, there was some stat today like
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: three and twenty two was a dog of more than
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: three and a half. He's a fucking easy disaster. I
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: feel so bad for Bears fans. Denver Broncos at Las
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders. Teddy's got a concussion. They broke our heart
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: on Sunday. God, I know, I know Teddy is not
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: coming back in such a great time to take Teddy.
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: Teddy covers as a dog on the road, so we'll
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: we'll pass. I'm almost positive they said, no matter what,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be Drew lock Um this Sunday. But yeah,
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: after squeaking by with a Raiders money line, I don't
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: want to bet them again. I agree. These teams are
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: both the past for me right now. Pittsburgh Steelers at
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. The Steelers are now ten point underdogs
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: either way. The Chiefs, Baby, I know, I knew that.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: You would think I would be on Pittsburgh, but I'm not.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: I love you, Mike Tomlin. I know it's December, but
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not sucking down it. It's a fine line between,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: you know, drinking wine and squashing grades. This is the
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: This is the ra Rob Mike Tomlin spot drop it,
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Mitchell ra ra Mike Tomlin spot get them ready to
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: take the fail every series. This is when you fade
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin off the home win as a dog. This
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: will buy you by far my favorite unders of the week.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I love this under so much. I always bet the
• 43:43
  Speaker 1: unders anyway. With the Chiefs at home. But this Chief's
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: defense they again that Chargers game, they the Chargers doing
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: ever they want. They're going up and down the field.
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: That wasn't indoor game, the controlled environment. The Chiefs team
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: outdoors as just for some reason, really held offenses down.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: So to me, this is a nice, nice spot taking
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: under in a favor, which is rare, usually like taking
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: the dog in an under position. But to me, it's
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: such a big total, big spread. What is I think
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: I have to check. I think it was and a
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: half ten points. It's not worth as much when if
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: it was forty, maybe I'd be leaning more towards Pittsburgh.
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: But there's enough wiggle room there that I like the
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: Chiefs in this position. I am shocked. It's a big,
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: big number for a team that has a really good
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: defense in the Steelers, and I think the Chiefs are overrated.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean the Chiefs don't cover numbers like this.
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: It goes against everything we've said all year about the Chiefs.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: It's gonna burn me chat. But I made the number
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: twelve and a half. It's ten. I think I'm getting
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: two and a half points of value. It's total on
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: this game right now is h fourty and a half
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: yea wow. This is the opposite of every single thing
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: we've talked about on this game, on this podcast all
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: season long. Not at all. There's times we take big favorites.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: It's just very rare. It's stunning. It's stunning to me.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: I know, you don't think the books. You know what
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: they're doing. They're fucking sucking you in, buddy. Why wouldn't
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: they make this seven and a half eight and a half.
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: They would just get the same amount of money on
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh team as they would on the Chiefs. But
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: they're putting it all up there because they need people
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: coming on Pittsburgh. Washington football team at Dallas Cowboys. Dallas
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: Cowboys ten and a half point favorites. This not knowing
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: about tonight, assuming Taylor Heinek is playing, this should be
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: Simon says, get on the fucking Washington football team right now.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: How can we though we don't know who's gonna be
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: back from COVID, So yeah, I'm with you. Their whole
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: defense is back healthy, their practice all week, and their
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks come back and they practice too. Love love Washington.
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: We don't Dallas has not looked right. Ever, since Dacks
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: come back from that injury, it just has not. I mean,
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: they barely beat the Giants huste. What was that one
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: to six and one of them was a defensive touch on?
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: Maybe I don't even remember, but I just remember thinking
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: that whole time. Giants should be winning this game, or
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: at least covering. They just couldn't do it. Dallas's defense
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: is for real. They're all healthy right now. This is
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: another game where if I can't figure out a side
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: or to pick a side, I'll probably send up taking
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the under in this game. Last game Monday Night Football,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints. Miami is a three
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: point underdog. Dude, dude, give me the fucking Dolphins. Here
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: the love right there with you. Love love this number.
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: I took it a three and a half. The fact
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: of the money and the tickets are coming in on
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: the Saints and the numbers moved down to three. That's
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: that's best casing. That means other pro groups have hit
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: Miami as well. So I love this number as long
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: as stays above one and a half, to which again
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: I talked all the time too, is a key number.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: I love Miami and I can see this being one
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: of our five. This makes no sense to me. No,
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: it's an overreaction to a Saints team that put up
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: nine points. Yeah, exactly what it is. We've got an
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: interesting little lineup coming on here, because I mean we're
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: talking about potentially the Cards, maybe maybe the Line, maybe
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: the Falcons, maybe the Panthers, maybe the Bills. We'll see
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: what happens with the Rams tonight. We might like that.
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: Maybe the Chiefs, which you love, like your enthusiasm was
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: a little overwhelming Miami. Wow, that's a lot. That's a lot.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Our foxhole is going to be the Panthers mine plus
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: eleven against the Bucks. Scoot Row. Let it for me, buddy.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all that's left is relief.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Let's play roulette. You're clearly killing me, so talk to me.
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: Screwch roulette. No brainer. We just talked about in Miami
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: plus Fuck you. I want to take the Dolphins, God
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: damn it, gotta gotta do it. I'll take the Chiefs. Wow,
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: look at you coming to a dark side. Yeah I was.
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: I was almost going to take the Cardinals. I Ll
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: just say that's that's probably the most pro line this week.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: Honestly the Cardinals line. That's what I think too, all right,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: I think we've covered it all. I think we've done
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: a whole show. We got in all the notes that
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell wanted us to get in about where to
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: find things and what we're doing for the rest of
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: the year. We got in our full slate, we got
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: in our foxel, we got in our assignment says Thursday.
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: We'll narrow it down. We'll do the money line parlay,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: We'll do the big balls better the week. That's all
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: she wrote. This has been the favorites for the Volume
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: podcast network. I am Chad Mellman. He is Simon Hunter.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Download us on Apple Podcast and Spotify, wherever you get
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: your podcast, rate reviews, subscribe five star reviews, feedback as
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: a gift. We don't care what you say in there.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: We are reading all of them. Also, please rate us
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: on Spotify. Spotify came up with a big update. Rate
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: us on Spotify until Thursday. I Love you