Latest / THE DAILY BRIEF / What has driven Erdogan to step back into the center of diplomacy
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Ukrainian President Voladimir Lensky has traveled to Turkey to meet
- 0:03Speaker 1: with President Regiptaie of Edowon in a bid to revive
- 0:06Speaker 1: peace efforts. Istan bull has already hosted three rounds of
- 0:10Speaker 1: talks between the two countries, and now Edwan is urging
- 0:12Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia to return to the negotiating table. Wednesday's
- 0:16Speaker 1: meeting took place as word emerged that Washington was discussing
- 0:19Speaker 1: a possible conditions for peace with Moscow, as Zelenski said
- 0:23Speaker 1: he hoped to resume prisoner swaps with Russia by the
- 0:26Speaker 1: end of the year. Sinan Chitty is director of the
- 0:32Speaker 1: Turkish Turkey Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
- 0:37Speaker 2: Good to have you with us Hi Good BVD.
- 0:42Speaker 1: Edwan called for Ukraine and Russia to return to talks
- 0:45Speaker 1: in Istanbul. So what is driving Arewan to step back
- 0:49Speaker 1: into the center of diplomacy now and what could Turkey
- 0:52Speaker 1: actually gain from this?
- 0:55Speaker 2: In a word, it's prestige for Erdowan.
- 0:57Speaker 3: He would like to be in the limelight of positioning
- 1:01Speaker 3: Turkey as the solution to the Ukraine conflict. He is
- 1:06Speaker 3: the arbiter or he would like to position Turkey is
- 1:08Speaker 3: the obbosite of the ultimate threadbearer to see the conflict end,
- 1:13Speaker 3: the war end in Ukraine, and he has been positioning
- 1:15Speaker 3: Turkey or Anchora in front of the United States and
- 1:19Speaker 3: in front of NATO, saying, look, I have the ability
- 1:22Speaker 3: to communicate both with Moscow as well as Kiev as
- 1:26Speaker 3: the central interlocutor to be able to resolve this conflict,
- 1:30Speaker 3: because he claims to have a meaningful relationship with both
- 1:33Speaker 3: parties that can end this conflict.
- 1:35Speaker 2: Whether he does or not is to be seen is
- 1:38Speaker 2: to be determined.
- 1:39Speaker 3: But he certainly does have the sort of voice that
- 1:42Speaker 3: he likes to project, and when he does, both sides
- 1:45Speaker 3: and the Transatlantic partners listen.
- 1:48Speaker 1: Well, what is your assessment of his claims in neutrality?
- 1:50Speaker 1: Because it is interesting here. Turkey is one of the
- 1:53Speaker 1: largest members of NATO, which Putin has said the expansion
- 1:58Speaker 1: of NATO was one of the reasons why invaded Ukraine
- 2:00Speaker 1: begin with. So how does Turkey manage position itself in
- 2:03Speaker 1: between NATO and Russia to start these negotiations.
- 2:09Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a really good question.
- 2:10Speaker 3: I think Turkey has a very complicated relationship inside of NATO.
- 2:13Speaker 3: It's you know, Turkey is in reality, it is a Hedger.
- 2:18Speaker 3: You know, Araduwan and his governments have said repeatedly in
- 2:22Speaker 3: you know, conversations and when they sort of typify the West,
- 2:25Speaker 3: saying that both Europe and the United States are in
- 2:28Speaker 3: decline and that Turkey should not have all of its
- 2:32Speaker 3: eggs in one basket, as in, they're not bedding entirely
- 2:35Speaker 3: on NATO and Europe as their sort of traditional allies
- 2:39Speaker 3: in front of in front of Russia, and therefore Turkey
- 2:43Speaker 3: has built up this relationship with Russia over time and
- 2:47Speaker 3: in the Ukraine theater, what we have seen is Turkey
- 2:49Speaker 3: has both constrained Russia's military action inside of Ukraine by
- 2:53Speaker 3: closing off these Turkey straits that has blocked Russian shipping.
- 2:57Speaker 3: But on the other hand, it is all so proven
- 3:01Speaker 3: to be selling and enabling Russia's war effort, especially earlier
- 3:05Speaker 3: on when facilitated Russian illicit financing, but also sold dual
- 3:12Speaker 3: use goods that ended up in the Russian military, in
- 3:15Speaker 3: effect aiding Russia's war effort. So Turkey can be was
- 3:18Speaker 3: essentially seen to be playing both sides.
- 3:20Speaker 1: And what is Turkey aiming to deliver in terms of negotiations?
- 3:24Speaker 1: Are we talking about humanitarian corridors and prisoner swaps, or
- 3:27Speaker 1: is Arewine really shooting for the idea of being able
- 3:30Speaker 1: to negotiate a full cease fire here?
- 3:34Speaker 2: I think this is unclear at this point.
- 3:36Speaker 3: What he has intimated at in the past is basically
- 3:39Speaker 3: to position himself in front of the Trump administration in
- 3:43Speaker 3: you since January twenty twenty five, when Trump came to
- 3:46Speaker 3: power for the second time and said, look, I am
- 3:49Speaker 3: a pivotal country as far as Washington is concerned, because
- 3:53Speaker 3: based on his relationship with both Moscow and Kiev, that
- 3:56Speaker 3: he has this ability to speak to both sides and
- 3:59Speaker 3: trumpsually or Washington wants to really see this war ended
- 4:03Speaker 3: because it was a key campaign promise of Trump said
- 4:05Speaker 3: he could resolve this conflict on day one when he
- 4:07Speaker 3: came to office, and Ardouan basically has been saying to Trump, look,
- 4:11Speaker 3: I can help deliver this for you.
- 4:14Speaker 2: And what he's meant.
- 4:15Speaker 3: By in how he's being able to deliver that for
- 4:18Speaker 3: Trump is unclear. He has volunteered Turkish peacekeepers after a
- 4:23Speaker 3: ceasefire has been signed. How that's going to happen is
- 4:27Speaker 3: always been unclear, but he's basically trying to position Turkey
- 4:31Speaker 3: as a problem solver for Washington, but in return for that,
- 4:36Speaker 3: as part of a wider deal with Washington, Turkey has
- 4:39Speaker 3: been seeking to essentially purchase high end weapons from the
- 4:43Speaker 3: United States in return for basically solving problems for Washington.
- 4:46Speaker 2: And so far Anka has not been able to manage
- 4:49Speaker 2: any of that.
- 4:50Speaker 1: And we've seen reports that there's a peace plan potentially
- 4:53Speaker 1: being drafted by US and Russian officials. Is Aedowan being
- 4:57Speaker 1: cut out of this, then.
- 5:00Speaker 3: It's not altogether clear if he's actually been included. We
- 5:03Speaker 3: haven't seen any formal statements to suggest that Turkey's actually
- 5:06Speaker 3: been included. We've seen Turkey's foreign minister, other Turkish officials
- 5:10Speaker 3: and Aradowan essentially say that he would like to be included,
- 5:14Speaker 3: and you know that without Turkey that there can be
- 5:17Speaker 3: no lasting peace. But again, I've not seen anything to
- 5:20Speaker 3: suggest that Turkey is an integral part of any sort
- 5:23Speaker 3: of you know, substantive deal that would come through. But
- 5:26Speaker 3: you know, Turkey has always been, you know, since the
- 5:28Speaker 3: conflict began, and volunteered you know, its services as an interlocative, apiece,
- 5:33Speaker 3: a staging ground for negotiations, but none of these has
- 5:36Speaker 3: ever resulted in substantive results.
- 5:40Speaker 2: But again, Adan likes.
- 5:42Speaker 3: To position himself as a central player and we you know,
- 5:48Speaker 3: and the Trump administration does like to sort of lean
- 5:50Speaker 3: on that to the extent that Araduwan is willing to
- 5:52Speaker 3: offer his free services.
- 5:54Speaker 1: It's a non chitty from the Foundation for Defensive Democracies.
- 5:57Speaker 2: Thanks, thank you,