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Conversation with Andrew Fox -- Iran War, Gaza | Yaron Brook Show · Yaron Brook Show

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: A lot of fundamental principles of aldo national self interest
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: and an individual lots. This is the show. Oh right, everybody,
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: welcome to your own book show on this Monday, March ninth.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Hope everybody had a good weekend. I am super excited
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: today to have Andrew Fox with me. I've been following
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Andrew for a couple of years now, I think, since
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  Speaker 1: I started seeing his reporting on the Middle East and
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: in particular on Gaza. And he's one of the few
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  Speaker 1: people that I know that actually went and went to
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Gaza and went to see how aid was being distributed
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  Speaker 1: and went to see what the Israeli forces were actually
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  Speaker 1: doing that around there. Now. Andrew served in the British
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: Army from twenty five to twenty twenty one, completed three
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  Speaker 1: twos of duty in Afghanistan, including one attached to the
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  Speaker 1: US Special Forces. He was in the Parachute Regiment and
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  Speaker 1: Special for Support Group to US in Bosnia at least
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  Speaker 1: and Northern Ireland's lots of military experience. He is now
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  Speaker 1: more of an academic. He's got a master's and working
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  Speaker 1: on a PhD. Is that right? Yeah, that's right exciting
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  Speaker 1: uh and his is affiliated with the Henry Jackson Society
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  Speaker 1: where I spoke a while back, and yeah, I mean,
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  Speaker 1: it's a it's a real pleasure and it's great to
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: be following you. I find, I find what you do
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  Speaker 1: is incredibly insightful and objective. So we're gonna be talking
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  Speaker 1: today about Iran and in Gaza, So obviously let's start
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  Speaker 1: with Ian. Maybe just if you could give us a
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  Speaker 1: you know, your assessment of where we are right now?
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  Speaker 1: And yeah, where we are right now?
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so the last week been the tempo has
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: been the most striking thing. I think it's that the
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  Speaker 2: ship pace of what of how things are happening in
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: situation is changing on the ground all the time. I
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  Speaker 2: think if we start with ends, that's probably a good
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: place to go. Where's the end state here? And I
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: think there's some lack of clarity over exactly where boat
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  Speaker 2: is around in America want to get to. I think
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  Speaker 2: they've got slightly different aims, but at the moment they
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: are marching in a lockstep towards towards those slightly different aims.
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: The White House is very clear that that their stated
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  Speaker 2: aims are destroying the Navy, destroying the missile capability, and
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  Speaker 2: destroying the nuclear sites. That's going really well. That there's
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: no way about around that. That's you know, that's that's
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  Speaker 2: happening methodically, that the target structures, the way they put
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: the packs together. I've seen that evolving a way I
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  Speaker 2: would expect. So starting with the leadership to decapitate to
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  Speaker 2: you know, smash command and control. Then to move to
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: those launchers to get those launcher rates down. The blistic
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: missiles were the big throat. We've seen those rates declining
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: day on day on day. The drones is a slightly
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  Speaker 2: different problem, but we can talk about that later. I
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  Speaker 2: think the biggest problem for me is how do you
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  Speaker 2: stop At this point? Trump has I think his messaging
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  Speaker 2: has been unhelpful, you know, talking about unconditional surrender, talking
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: about the Iranian people rising up, because that implies a
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  Speaker 2: regime change and state which I don't think we're in
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  Speaker 2: a place to achieve right now. We may be in
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  Speaker 2: a few weeks, but not not today. And of course
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  Speaker 2: Israel is looking about it's trying to find years of
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: years of protection and safety and security, and that's where
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  Speaker 2: Israel wants to go with this, and that's going pretty
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: well from Israeli perspective in terms of things going well,
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: that's good. In terms of things going not so well,
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  Speaker 2: I think we're not seeing yet the circumstances we would
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: need to have the regime collapse or change or change sites.
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  Speaker 2: We haven't reached that point yet. I'm not convinced the
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  Speaker 2: Uranian people are in a position yet to try and
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  Speaker 2: rise up and overthrow their government. That's that's a reasonably
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  Speaker 2: long way off. We've seen some mixed messaging about arming
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  Speaker 2: the Kurds, arming various disparate groups that I think come
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  Speaker 2: with a lot of problems that we can unpack at
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  Speaker 2: the moment. And then, of course, the really big downside
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  Speaker 2: is the oil market price panic that we're seeing at
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  Speaker 2: the moment, where it's cresting well over one hundred dollars
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  Speaker 2: a barrel. That's, you know, at the moment, we're just
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  Speaker 2: in market panic territory. It's not catastrophic, but if it
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  Speaker 2: goes on for weeks or even months, that really could
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  Speaker 2: cause a global inflationary shock, which would be a real disaster.
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  Speaker 2: So there's there's a few variables that aren't going as
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  Speaker 2: well as they might do, but kind of in terms
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  Speaker 2: of the stated aims and where they are with that,
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  Speaker 2: that's ticking along quite nicely.
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  Speaker 1: So let's let's take each one of those separately in
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  Speaker 1: terms of so if we think about resume change, what
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  Speaker 1: would it take. So we're not going to put boots
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  Speaker 1: on the ground, America is not going to invaed you
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  Speaker 1: on is al certainly. I mean people who loosened videos
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: not can invide you on. I think Techer costs and
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: still think is all you know. Once you're Indian territory,
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  Speaker 1: they want to conquer it. He's a little nuts. So
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  Speaker 1: and I agree with you about the cords and so
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  Speaker 1: on for a variety of reasons. I think the cords
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  Speaker 1: are not a viable option. I don't think they want
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  Speaker 1: to be. They don't want to go to Tejuan is
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  Speaker 1: that that would be That would be crazy for them.
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  Speaker 1: So what would it take to actually achieve regime change
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  Speaker 1: in anyone?
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  Speaker 2: Well, well, normally we look for three things. The first
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  Speaker 2: one is a psychological shock, which is where you get
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  Speaker 2: a major leader being killed or defecting, or just stopping
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  Speaker 2: and fleeing, like we saw with a sad in Syria,
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  Speaker 2: great example. Now, we've had a lot of psychological shocks
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  Speaker 2: there last week, and it hasn't proven decisive for the
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  Speaker 2: simple reason that the IOGC and the way they've set
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  Speaker 2: this state up is designed to be spongy. It's not brittle,
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  Speaker 2: it's not going to crack really easily. And we're seeing
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  Speaker 2: the RGC now operating on what you call a mosaic commands,
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  Speaker 2: where they have devolved everything to the lower regional commanders.
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  Speaker 2: I think we're estimating there's about twenty eight of them
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  Speaker 2: around the country. They are able to operate pretty much autonomously,
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  Speaker 2: and they've got their mission sets and they just carry
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  Speaker 2: on with those missions without anyone above them commanding them.
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  Speaker 2: So that makes them very resistant to that psychological shock.
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  Speaker 2: The second factor we look for run regime change is
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  Speaker 2: the military shock, where the military is either destroyed, deterred,
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  Speaker 2: or changes sites. And we're seeing that degradation. We're seeing
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  Speaker 2: the attrition of their capabilities, but we're not seeing them
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  Speaker 2: being deterred because they're still firing, and we're not seeing
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  Speaker 2: them yet switch sides, and I think switching sides is
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  Speaker 2: unlikely due to, frankly, the fanatic nature of the IGC.
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  Speaker 2: There's a gentleman called Casera Arabi in London. He's done
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  Speaker 2: some incredible work on the IGC. He managed to get
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  Speaker 2: hold of their training manuals and forty percent of their
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  Speaker 2: training is dedicated to indoctrination.
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  Speaker 1: Yep.
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  Speaker 2: So these guys are fanatics who'll fight to the death
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  Speaker 2: is the likely likely course of action for them. So
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  Speaker 2: we've not seen the military shock yet. And then you
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  Speaker 2: need the public shock, which is the third factor of
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  Speaker 2: regime change, where people can rise up, overthrow, start toppling statues,
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  Speaker 2: start storming palaces, you know, that kind of thing that
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  Speaker 2: we've seen around the Middle East in a number of
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  Speaker 2: different variations over the last twenty years. So we're not
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  Speaker 2: there yet for a regime change, and whether we'll get
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  Speaker 2: there is another question, because you know, we don't know
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  Speaker 2: who's going to do the overthrowing, and that's that's the
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  Speaker 2: really big unknown right now.
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  Speaker 1: So any chairs that the Uranian military separate from the
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  Speaker 1: Islamic Revolutionary God, would challenge the AREGC for dominance or
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  Speaker 1: side with the Urinian people in order to overthrow the regime.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, potentially, but that comes with its own set of
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  Speaker 2: problems that then looks very much like a civil war.
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  Speaker 2: I think I don't think the IOLOGYC go quietly into
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  Speaker 2: that good night. I suspect they hang around and try
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  Speaker 2: and take their power back. So you up in that
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  Speaker 2: kind of real nasty civil war situation that we saw
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  Speaker 2: in kind of Iraq and Libya. So it's a possibility,
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  Speaker 2: but it's not a great one. And I don't think
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  Speaker 2: I think we should be honest here, and I don't
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  Speaker 2: think there are any clean, meat good solutions here. There
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  Speaker 2: is not going to be a simple answer to this.
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  Speaker 2: It's going to be messy. It's going to be drawn
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  Speaker 2: out and complicated and probably quite bloody. And the big
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  Speaker 2: question is, at the end of that horrible long process,
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  Speaker 2: is what's left better than what was before? And can
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  Speaker 2: you justify the amount of suffering that it would take
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  Speaker 2: to get there to justify that end state. So these
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  Speaker 2: are the kind of moral and ethical questions I think
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  Speaker 2: underpin this, above and beyond the straight up strategical military questions.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think Israel would probably say yes,
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  Speaker 1: and particularly if those other three goals have been achieved
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  Speaker 1: in terms of nuclear missiles and navy, that these really
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  Speaker 1: should probably see yes. I mean, there was talk about
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  Speaker 1: using the chords. I mean, surprised if the Kurds we're
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  Speaker 1: willing to team up with with with Trump given that
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  Speaker 1: he's he's now betrayed them at least twice in Syria
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  Speaker 1: and in New York. So you know why they would
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  Speaker 1: trust him this time? Is is hard to emerge.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, and look and arming those regional ethnic groups, it
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  Speaker 2: comes with its own problem saying, because if you look
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  Speaker 2: at the if you're on the Kurds, you're going to
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  Speaker 2: upset the Turkish and you don't know how they're going
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  Speaker 2: to react. If you're on the Azaris, then you're drawing
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  Speaker 2: in Azerbaijan, who have a very vested interest in that
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  Speaker 2: ethnic group. If you on the Bilochis, you're going to
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  Speaker 2: upset Pakistan because they've already sent division to the Pakistani
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  Speaker 2: Iranian border because they're worried about the you know, the
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: long term insurgency that they've been suffering in that border
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  Speaker 2: region for a long time. So you're causing a whole
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  Speaker 2: other problem. So if you if you do that, I suspect.
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  Speaker 1: So what do you think? So the three goals that
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  Speaker 1: are not resume change or nuclear missiles, in nuclear missiles
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  Speaker 1: and navy. So the navy's much gone that that's a
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  Speaker 1: pretty seems like a pretty straightforward kind of target. But
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  Speaker 1: nuclear we've got all this uranium out there. It's not
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  Speaker 1: clear that anybody knows where it is. There's no clear
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  Speaker 1: signals that is really US intelligence know where it is?
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  Speaker 2: What is?
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  Speaker 1: What is you know, what is achieving the goal look
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  Speaker 1: like when it comes to the nuclear.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's it's a case that if you
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: don't completely eradicate it, they will start rebuilding in secret, yep,
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  Speaker 2: and slowly. And I think we have to understand the
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: mentality here. They don't need to rebuild it tomorrow. They
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: don't need to do it at a sprint. You know,
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  Speaker 2: they could conceivably even wait out till twenty twenty eight
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  Speaker 2: and there's a new president and then slowly start again
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: in secret.
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  Speaker 1: You know.
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  Speaker 2: There's I think our enemies think in decades. They think
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: in generations. They don't think in electoral cycles or quick wins.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: I think there's an israela that there isla leader in
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: an israela quote of of we think narrations, you in
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the West thinking years, and that's why we will inevitably
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: re win, which is a pretty depressing quote. Yeah.
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  Speaker 2: And the Taliban always said, you have the watches, but
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: we have the time, you know. So this is this
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: is a common theme across across various countries where you
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: see this kind of hardcore Islamic fundamentalism, And you know,
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  Speaker 2: this is a difficult problem set because we don't know
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: whether the uranium is I'm sure they have an idea.
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: I'd be very surprised if they didn't. But how do
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: you get to it if it's underground? I mean you
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: can seal it in, but then they can always just
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: dig it out. Again that you send a Special Forces
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: team on the mission from hell to go and try
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: and secure this huge amount of highly radioactive material, Like,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: that's not a job I'd want. No, Doing an s
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: F mission in full has matter for hours on end
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: with huge amounts of fissile material. Not great. So yeah, again,
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: another really tricky problem set. I mean, look, I think
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: if you can frame it in terms of how much
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: time are you buying, that might be a good way
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: of looking at it. Are you setting this back one
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: to three years like they did last summer?
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: Oh? Are you setting it back ten to twenty years,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: which buys you ten to twenty years to do something
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: a little bit more long term in slow time? And
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: I think that latter option is probably the best at
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: this point.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that's why at least Israel
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: would like regime change and would would like to do
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: anything it can, even if it's messy, because that's the
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  Speaker 1: only way to set it back kind of permanently in
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: any kind of permanent sense. As long as the Islamists ruling,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: it's just amount of time before they develop a bomb
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: or develop other capabilities. What's your sense of the missile capabilities?
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: Obviously the shooting fewer missiles are you know, is the
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: sense that the missiles are trapped underground or that and
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: they have no launchers or are they really actually destroying the.
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: Missile stockpiles that they have. Well, it sounds like a
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: bit of both. I think they've hit the ones they can.
• 13:00
  Speaker 2: And then of course we've got the big missile cities.
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: You've probably read about those, the underground manufacturing and storage sites.
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: The best option is to seal those in for now,
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: and that sounds like what they're doing. I mean, they
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: don't release this kind of operational detail in huge crannularity,
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: but that's there's certainly enough reporting to suggest that's what's happening.
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: And then of course the launches are being degraded slowly
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: as well, which has we're seeing the proof in the pudding,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Like fewer ballistic missiles are being fired at Israel and
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: fewer are being fired at the Golf States, and that
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: tells you the story, I think. But the other thing
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: with launchers is actually they're not that difficult to make.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: They're a truck with a bit of scaffolding on. You know,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: it's this isn't you know, this isn't the most high
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: tech thing in the world. So they will be able
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: to keep that low grade development of you know, building
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: new ones, and it's just a matter of keep hitting
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: them until they until they until they run out. Whether
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: that will ever happen again, hard to say. But if
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: you can reduce the missile far to a nuisance rather
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: than a threat, then that's a win.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: And again it buys, it buys maybe some time, but
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: it doesn't solve the problem.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly that.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Okay, so all prices obviously, you know, if this
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: goes on for weeks, if they're basically if the straight
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: of homemoes is closed for weeks, yeah, it has devastating
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: economic consequences on a global on a global scale, A
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: lot of countries are involved, I mean Japan and South Korea,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: have almost no petroleum reserves. China has I think I
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: read somewhere quite extensive reserves, but so they can probably
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: survive this, but the Japanese and South Koreans are in trouble.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: America's in trouble because of high prices, not because lack
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: of oil. Oil will be there, but it's it's just
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: they don't have to pay much higher price for this.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: Is there a way to open the streets of home
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: woes short of obviously total total victory, that is a
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: still way to open them up, you know, while this
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: is going on, there is, but.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: It's costly and militarily not the easiest task in the world.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, China has about one hundred days of reserves apparently,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: so they've got a bit more than as you say, Japan,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: South Korea, but it still not a huge amount. The
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: the straight upall moves are big, and I think people
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: don't realize that it's not just that tiny strait. You know,
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: this goes on for a very long way, all along
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: the coastline, and securing that entire thing is a big task,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: and it's you know, you have to make sure the
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: mines aren't laid. Iran has a very capable attack boat
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: capability where you know, almost like the drones that we've
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: seen in the Black Seats.
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: He's a small ones. It's it's hard to hit them,
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: it's hard to destroy them all in advance. And I
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: like the big navy.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: Ships exactly, and you can pack them full of explosives
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: and drive them into the side of an oil tanker,
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: and then you've got a real problem. Likewise, all the
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: way along that coastline you can get someone sneaking up
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: and firing a missile and then running away again. So
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: that's really hard to do. So it looks at the
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: moment like forcing it with an escort, and of course
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: the volume that goes through there on a normal day
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: you can't escort every ship, so it isn't really tricky
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: task and really tricky military task. Here there is talk
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: of short circuiting it by going through I think it's
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: Bahrain and Saudi They can't carry the twenty million vales
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: that normally go through there. They can do three to five.
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: So it's not a solution. It's a mitigation at best,
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: but it is a real problem, and there is an
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: extent to which you might make the case that the
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: regime does have does have really big leverage, and that
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: is the main one is the stroke of four movies
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: because if this global inflationary shock happens, I mean, look
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: for viewers, for viewers out there who aren't you keen
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: on reading oil prices. Just think of it this way.
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: We live in a petrochemical world. Everything we do is
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: petrochemical bit. You know, even your server in a restaurant,
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: driving to work in the morning is part of that
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: petrochemical world. Your clothes manufactured in factories that run on
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: petro chemicals take away twenty percent of the supply globally.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: And again you don't have to be an economist to
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: work out what happens if you take away twenty percent
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: of what you need. So Iran that's its strongest card.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: And if they can keep the strength of home is
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: closed for a significant amount of time, the inflationary pressure
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: worldwide is going to be enormous. The Gulf States will
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: be pressure in Washington, Europe will be pressurre in Washington,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: you name it, and that could bring this war to
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: a premature clothes if that doesn't get resolved.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: So supposedly there's a French armada. The French are coming
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: to the rescue heading towards the area that is supposed
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: to maybe escort the ships out. It seems like it
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: seems they'll need more than that. Can you imagine a
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: world in which China, maybe even Japan join in and
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: to escort these ships out, given that they all aligned
• 17:59
  Speaker 1: in terms of the interests, Yeah, potentially.
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: I don't think that would suit mister Trump because I
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: think there is that unspoken and state for this war
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: that they want enough control over Iran's oil that they
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: can then leverage that over the Chinese. China does have
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a very long standing non intervention policy as well, so
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: I would be genuinely surprised to see to see the
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Chinese involved. But you know, the French do have an
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: aircraft carrier, and an aircraft carrier comes with a group,
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: and that is a force multiplier. As I said, the
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: Straights Orpore music huge and even America's two aircraft carrier
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: groups aren't enough to secure the whole thing. So they
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: you know, America is going to need allies if they
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: want this opening. So and if the French are willing
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: to step up out of national self interest, who cares
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: what their motivation are. At least they're there and at
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: least they're doing something.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, absolutely, there's rumors about taking the island. I
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: can pronounce the name of Yah.
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll call it dark Ye.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: How viable is that? It seems like it's a self
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: contained entity that one could control militarily, particularly if the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Unions are not motivated to bomit given all the all
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: facilities are there. Is that a viable and is that
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: leverage over the Unians in terms of maybe opening up
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: the street.
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, potentially it does cut their cut their income,
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: but that's been heavily cut anyway. It's not as if
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: the Uranians are shipping oil out during the war. But
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: it does give long term control over it, which might
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: be a leverage factor militarily. It's feasible in any normal times,
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: it wouldn't be because it's quite well defended and overlooked
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: from the coast as well, so you can fire at
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: it from the coast. But obviously they've been so degraded
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: the Iranians that actually this might be a window opportunity,
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: especially if you've still got that whole air package flying
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: over the top of it to give you that depth
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: protection as the infantry on the ground. So it conceivable.
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: Whether it be decisive, I'm not sure, but it would
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: certainly be a step forward. Whether you could sell that
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: to the American peace people, I think is a bigger question.
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: I don't think the American people are super keen on
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: seeing casualties for this war.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: Trump did make promises about no new wars, and obviously,
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: once you commit ground forces, at what point do you
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: withdraw them? That's another question is could turn into a
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: slightly more open ended task that I think perhaps was
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: intended when they started. What's the domestic appetite for that,
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: especially with those midterms looming later in the year, which
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: could you know, if they go the wrong way for Trump,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: could render him almost a lame duck for the rest
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: of his the rest of his term and obviously probably
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: dogged by more impeachments and that sort of thing. You know,
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: that's inevitable. I think so, yeah, it's it's politically tricky
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: on the US side.
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: To do that. I would say, yeah. I mean, I'm
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: not sure he has much to lose, given given the
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: poor show that he's going to lose those midterm elections
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: by a big margin right now, and maybe even the Senate,
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: which which might be up for grabs, which nobody expected,
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: given how unpopularly is just might be. I mean, the
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: whole war my be a kind of a hill Mary
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: to try to, you know, lift his profile or improve
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: his the view within the American people. But he has
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: ever real win for that to happen.
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's that's a really big political factor
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: because you know, we go back to clouds of its
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: war is the continuation of politics with the ad mixture
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: of other means. You know that old cliche, but it's
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: truer than ever. And I think a constraint on this
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: war is that Donald Trump doesn't need to turn around
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: and say I won, I delivered this, I've done this
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: and nobody else could have done it. You know that
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: messaging is really important to him politically, So that is
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: going to factor into strategic planning where I don't think
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: it normally would with most normal presidencies, But he psychologically
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: needs that win more than more than most.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: How impressed are you with just the sheer ability of
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the US and Israeli militaries to dominate this. I mean,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: we saw Israel doing doing it on its own in
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: the Twelve Day War, but it seems quite impressive from
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: a layman, if you will, But you know, what's your
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: evaluation of the capabilities?
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: I'm not having layman. You were telling me all about
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Lebanon just before we came on.
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: It was a long time ago.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: That's me too. No, it's incredibly impressive, but that we
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: knew America had the strongest military in the world. This
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: was never in doubt. And I never quite understood the
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: kind of Hexath talking the military down as if they
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: were in a terrible state before they took over. I've
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: worked with the American Army many times, including on operations,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: and they are fantastic. And the resources and assets of
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: the US can bring to the game. Nobody else in
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: the world could do that. Never mind since Nonald Trump.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: Even before that, it was an incredible military apparatus. And
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: we saw Israel taking the Iranians apart on their own
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: last summer, and I spoke at the start about how
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: the pace of things have moved, And that's really what happens.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: When you take and already dominant is really air force,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: and you inject the might of the world's only military superpower,
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: things are going to move fast that the amounts of
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: hef they can bring to this is huge and I
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: think the only real constraint they're going to face his ammunition.
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: You know, they've got complete freedom in the skies. They
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: can keep this tempo up for as long as the
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: missiles are there in the stocks. Washington's obviously conscious of this.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: They've had meetings with the arms factories and the arms
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: providers to make sure they they up their production. But
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: it does take longer to make a bomb than it
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: takes to fire and bomb, and that will be one
• 23:34
  Speaker 2: of the calculuses that comes into this is how long
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: can you can maintain this tempo of bombing because they're
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: not going to run out of targets. You know, there's
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: a lot of things to hit and Iran. How long
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: can you keep hitting them for is the question. So
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: that's another calculus factor that we need to consider.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: To what extent do you think the Chinese are looking
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: at this and maybe this is causing them to be
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: more reluctant vis a Villa taking Taijuan given the shit
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: dominance of let's call it Western tech over at least
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Western tech and maybe some Chinese tech.
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's an interesting one because the Chinese tech haven't
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: got huge amounts of examples of it being used. What
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: we do have is last year with the India Pakistan fight,
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: where the Pakistanis gave the Indian Air Force as spanking
• 24:22
  Speaker 2: that they really weren't expecting, and that was the Chinese
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: anti anti aircraft missiles that did the job there. So
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: there is some really good Chinese kit that we know of.
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: You're certainly looking at the power projection and you're realizing
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: that the US really can get stuff around the world
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: and then use it really effectively. My concern, I suppose,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: is that that might then make them believe that they're
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: in a closing window, because right now ammunition stocks are low, worldwide,
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: missile into step steps of stocks are low, America is
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: heavily committed with two carriers and the rest of it
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: in the Gulf. Like maybe they might be looking at
• 24:58
  Speaker 2: this and saying, is this old last week before we
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: can actually do anything regarding Taiwan. The only counterpoint to that,
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: I think is that they are undergoing significant internal disruption
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: at the moment, having costackt huge numbers of their generals,
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: and they're doing one of those traditional communist purges which
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: puts their military in probably a less high state of
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: readiness and preparedness, so they might not be able to
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: take the opportunity presented by this window by American arms stocks,
• 25:24
  Speaker 2: depletion and attention elsewhere. But I'd certainly be concerned. I'd
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: also be concerned if I'm China about the fact that
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: potentially twenty percent of my inbound oil might now be
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: under American influence, and I can see them accelerating a
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: rush towards other forms of energy as a result, because again,
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: China is one of those enemies that thinks in generations
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: and they'll take a short term pain, but they'll always
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: have a counterleak, so it won't be lasting, but it'll
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: be be effective if it happens in the well.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: Well, the West is shutting off its nuclear power plans,
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: the Chinese are building them like crazy. So the plenty
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: of nuclear pop plants being built in China right now,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: and uh, and yeah, I mean they have to worry.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: The Chinese have to worry about any economy that relies
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: so totally on exports. And the world will now respond
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: well to uh, to an invasion of Taiwan. So it's
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: you know, they're not an easy place in terms of
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: in terms of going to go into war right now.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: But but I agree America is probably not going to
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: be this week in terms of their ability to to
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: bring projectiles into play. Maybe ever again, we'll see for
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: a while. So if we can go back to Israel
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: for a second's not fighting on a second front. It's
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: it's engaged in Lebanon right now. It is uh, you know,
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: bombing extensively throughout leb And it's pretty amazing that It's
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: air force is dealing with both of these issues. Uh,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: and I think they did they bombed one hundred targets
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: yesterday just in Lebanon, and then I don't know how
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: many they did Yuan yesterday. It's it is pretty amazing
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: just just the capabilities that they have. When does have
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: to worry about ammunitions running out, there's a there's a
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: I guess there's a constant flow of supplier planes coming
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: into Israel with with ammunition, you know, twenty four to
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: seven right now. But you know, Isbela is obviously open
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the second front. Do you see a path to victory there?
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: You know, Yuan has its own problems, but but you know,
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: Lebanon seems to be more more contained.
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: What does what does victory look like I mean, I
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: think that's the big question. We're going to get rid
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: of Hisaballa completely unlikely. You know, they are entrenched like
• 27:42
  Speaker 2: a virus in Lebanon. They've got those bases in the
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: beck are the underground facilities where they make their own weapons.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: But they can be heavily degraded to the point where
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: they're not a direct threat to Israel at the moment.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: And that's really the key thing I think is, oh,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: those northern communities in Israel safe or not. And I
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: think that's what victory looks like right now, is it
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: is safety for those northern communities. And you know, I
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: was up in the Galilee Panhandle earlier this January. I
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: was looking at the ground laid out. You can see, unfortunately,
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: how that the terrain doesn't flatter Israel. When it comes
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: to Lebanon. You always have that looking down into Israel
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: ability if your has bala, which means your rockets can
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: be much more impactive from a military perspective. So I
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: think this move here we're seeing is forward defense. It's
• 28:29
  Speaker 2: not it's not really offense in the sense that they're
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: trying to season take ground permanently. It's a forward defensive
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: buffer zone, driving his Balla back beyond the Latani which
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: is direct fire range. And if they can come to
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: some sort of political solution with the Lebanese government that
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: might degrade has balloped further at the political level. That's
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: a big success as well. Are we going to eradicate
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: his Balla completely right now? No, but you can certainly
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: take away their teeth and then you can start working
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: at the policeticle, in the economic level to grind them
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: down and by economics something they're funding, yep, attack their
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: crime networks around the world, you can attack the Iranian state,
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: get that that card, and you can just degrade them
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: and shrink them over time to the point where they're
• 29:15
  Speaker 2: not not viable any longer. And I think that's not
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: a short win, that's a years long thing. But it's
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: a clear path at this point. And this is the
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: best opportunity in years to really make an impact on
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: what is Bala can and can't do.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: And it does look like the political class in Lebanon
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: has has shifted as as you know, the even the
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: even the Shiate, even the Shis who allied with Risbola
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: and moving away from Risbolla. And I think it's very
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: is the is the head of the Amal the the
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: the Shia political party. So there seemed to be some
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: consensus among the elites within within Lebanon that they need
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: to control Risbela and distance themselves and maybe even come
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: to peace deal with Israel. That would be a huge
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: deal if they could. If they could pull that off,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: we can visible enough so that Lebanon is confident enough
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: to take control.
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. And it's it's been a decades long, decades
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: long kind of degradation of the of the Lebanese state.
• 30:19
  Speaker 2: And I think people don't realize just how much Hesbala
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: has acted as a sort of political power within the power.
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: You know, they've used assassination against their political opponents. It's
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: not just Israel that they're bad for, it's actually the
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: people of Lebanon as well. So any result against them
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: that would reduce that political internal power would be a
• 30:37
  Speaker 2: huge result.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: So you know, so you you of you on Lebanon
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: generally is we can buy time and hopefully hopefully their
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: time is measured in a decade or longer rather than
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: in one to three years. But unlikely that we can
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: do more than that.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, never write, never write this stuff off, I
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: think is the golden solution here. But look, I look
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: around the Seventh Front War and I don't see permanent stability.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: You know, Iraq start there. You know, there are huge
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: tensions with those Shia militias that are a significant security
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: threat to the Iraqi state. They didn't get involved in
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: this war, but they're they're there, and because they didn't
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: get involved, they're still intact. Look at Syria, we don't
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: know which way our Sharah is going to go. It
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: increases Turkish influence in the region. Turkey has Ottoman kind
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: of reclamation goals, so that's not great. Gaza and Judaeo Samaria,
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: there's still no permanent, long term solution to this at all.
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: If we look at Lebanon, we can degrade Hasbala, but
• 31:45
  Speaker 2: actually removing them completely is a much harder, longer task
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: than just degrading them and making as well as more
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: than border safe. We haven't got a clear end state
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: in Aran yet. We can buy time there as well.
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: And the Huthis have been pretty quiet during this war.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: They've been degraded, they're facing pressure on the ground from
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: the Government of Yemen forces. But again, no permanent solutions.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: But this is the Middle East one. Has there ever
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: been a permanent solution?
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah? And I you know, I think I think the
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: the the fact that religion plays such a big role
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: here is crucial because it gives them the long term perspective.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: It gives them that fanaticism they're willing to they're willing
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: to day for and it's hard to it's hard to
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: eradicate a committed religionist.
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, and you know they're willing to die
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: for it, and Israel is happy to help them on
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: that mission. But look, I think that that sounded quite negative.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: But look, is Israel in a better place than it
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: was on sick of October twenty twenty three? Yeah, I agree,
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: you know, and that's that's a good thing. Is Israel
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: more secure and safe?
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Yes?
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: It is. Has Israel just proven the extent to which
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: it will offend itself? Is that going to be a deterrent?
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: I think it certainly is certain certain grouping. So this
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: is all good positive stuff. But I just don't think
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: we should be naive that we think that this is
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: permanent peace.
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: Yep. To what extent do you think that the hostility
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: now of the Gulf state towards Yuan, given that they've
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: just bombed them, is going to play it is going
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: to play a positive role moving forward. I mean, is
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: the likelihood for more of them to join the Airbraham
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: Accords increased? As you know, it's then another positive outcome
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: that may come of others.
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: I think that's a really interesting one because I think
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: we have to look at this levels. I think if
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: you look at government, state level, there is certainly irritation
• 33:49
  Speaker 2: against against the Rains for what they've done. I mean,
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: they must have expected it. They knew if they if
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: America attacked and they had American bases on their soil,
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: they were going to get they were going to catch
• 33:58
  Speaker 2: straight should we say that they must have known that
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: was coming? But even today Kato, we're talking about their
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: sense of betrayal with Iran. Of course they've been quite
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: pally with with the Uranians. So you know, that's a
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: big public statement to make. The flip side is how
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: much is that the public in those countries going to
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: blame Israel and America for bringing this on their heads.
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: We know that those publics and places like Saudi particularly
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: were highly anti Israel. They've been heavily influenced by that
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: propaganda coming out of Gaza for the last two years.
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: Those images of destruction have really put put their kind
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: of kibosh, I think on street level support for normalization
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: with Israel. So I think if it does happen, it
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: will be a slow process. I think if this was
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: just Israel, it would be better or worse. It's tough
• 34:51
  Speaker 2: to say, but certainly you know they might share some credit,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: but by the same token they might share some blame.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: It's a difficult one to judge, and I don't have
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: a concrete answer, but there are factors that we can
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: see that sits at the governmental level very differently to
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: the way they sit at the street level. And street
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: level is important, not because they've got elections to win,
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: because obviously they don't. They're all authoritarian states. But there
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: is always that danger of overthrow, absolutely yeah, and that's
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: what will be in the backs of their minds.
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: And I think people realize the extent to which there
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: is a gap between the street and the and the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: people in the top of the regime. And whilst Dad
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: learned that the hard way in the early eighties. Let's see,
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: we've got a couple of questions here, and then maybe
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: we can talk about Gaza. Many asks Hi. There seems
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: to be an influenced campaign and acts against the UK
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: by Arab and some Israeli influencers. I noticed Andrew got
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: mildly annoyed by them. What do you make of it?
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really serial because I've spent kind of two
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: years trying to argue for Ukraine against a really strong
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: disinformation campaign against Israel for the disinformation campaign, and I
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: found it deeply frustrating that they've turned turned on the UK.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: And look, I don't know if this is a chance
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: for them to kind of certainly on the Israeli side,
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: to show how pissed off they were about recognizing Palestine,
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: and frankly I share that annoyance. I think I think
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: it was a terrible decision. You know, people don't like
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: Britain around the world because of the ex colonial thing.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: I just found it very strange that they set their
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: state back to actors on the UK. But I think
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: it's a shame. I wrote about it on my subsec
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: Actually you can you can go there and have a
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: look at the article I wrote about the information and
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: I think it's because they're trying to shame the UK
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: into doing something. I think that's I think that's what
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: it is. They can't make a persuasive political argument, so
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: that they're going for the kind of shame option. But yes,
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: I did get irritated, as as I do. But yeah,
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: it's I think it was unfair. And look, I don't
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: take lectures from authoritarian shurier states about my democracy.
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: Kidding. Yeah, yeah, even when it disagrees with our leaders
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: who democratically elected. Those guys don't have a wait.
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: To speak exactly. Yeah, you told me he voted for
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: in the last election. We can have a conversation until then.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: I'm not listening to a wad they.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Have to say. Andrew listening to you think that the
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: war will continue longer so that the US can try
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: out new boots, underground toys, Parma, Lucky helmets, et cetera.
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: The long term economic gains testing new tech? Is this feasible?
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: So I guess he's arguing that, You know, I would
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: expect kind of a conspiracy theory. We're going to prolong
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: the wars so we can test Parmeerlucky's toys.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: You care. I'd be surprised if that were the case.
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: I mean, what would be the motivation for that. I mean,
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: there's already a political risk here, I think in the
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: way they've gone about this and the way the goals
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: achieved going. I mean, they need an off ramp here
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: at some point or it could turn into a political disaster,
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: it could turn into a military quaglie. I suspect they
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: will focus on that above any kind of need to
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: test kit out. I think I think that's probably more likely.
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know your take on UK government and
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: Starmer's response, how would you advise given the chance.
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: Well, look, I think Starmer has done the most Starmer
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: thing imaginable, which is making kind of the right decision
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: but just absolutely mess up the messaging around it. Yeah,
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: I've got no issue with us lending them their basic lending,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: letting the bases be used personally, I mean, I don't
• 38:57
  Speaker 2: think that makes real odd one way or the other.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: And likewise, you know, if it's an offense or defense
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: they're using it for, there's such a thin line between
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: those two things that that really is the most lawyer's
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: solution that he's come up with and imaginable. Do I
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: think the UK should be involved beyond defense? No, I don't,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: for two reasons.
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: Really.
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: First of all, I don't think we offer anything particularly
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: like the Israeli Air Force and the US carrier groups
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: have got this, you know, they don't need British involvement,
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: So we'd be sending our men and women into harms
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: way to send a message, which I'm you know, as
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: a former soldier who's been sent into harms away, I'm
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: not keen on that idea particularly. But secondly, you know,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: America spent twelve months telling us that Europe is our business.
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: Now our security is is Europe's, and so we're quite
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: right rightly focusing on that. And if we start sending
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: assets away to the Middle East, that weakens us visibly. Russia,
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: who've done very well out of this war, you know,
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: they've they've had a huge financial boost from there where
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: oil has gone to price wise, we can't be you know,
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: taking our eyes off an emboldened Russia to go and
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: focus on the Middle East when we're not really necessarily
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: needed there. You know, you have to strategically prioritize, and
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: our priority right now, as the White House spent twelve
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: months demanding, is Europe. So we're going to focus on that,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: and that makes sense to me.
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: Well, demanding it in a particularly unpleasant way, which could
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: not have, you know, promoted friendship or anything like that.
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: Dan asks, were there any Chinese defense systems in Yuan?
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: How did they do during the Twelve Day War? Now,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: if there were any, if I'm honest, I don't know,
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We did see, we did see planeloads
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: arriving in China.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: What was on those planes?
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: We don't know.
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: We can assume it was some kind of defensive capability.
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: Before the war, Iranian air defense was at fifteen percent
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: effectiveness fifteen percent, that's before the war. So frankly, any
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: system didn't stand a chance, whether it was Chinese or not.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: But the bottom run is, I don't know, I mean,
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: but the proofs in the pudding, Like if there was
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Chinese air defense, it didn't work because nobody's lost the jet.
• 41:10
  Speaker 2: Apart from that Bahraini incident that we don't talk about,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: but that aside, the air defense hasn't landed a punch.
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: Yeah, pretty amazing. In the Bahamonium paylot shut down three
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: American planes three, I mean one one is forgivable, I
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: mean three. I don't know what was going on. It's embarrassing.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: Let's see Phil says Andrew, we are where we are,
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: but with a doctrine of if you want peace, prepare
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: for war. And in your opinion, was is all just
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: too complacent to a spine to seventh of October and
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: why we're here now?
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, look on some October mistakes were clearly made.
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Israelis are very open about that,
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: and I don't think I've had a briefing from the
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: IDEF in the last two years that hasn't started with
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: we failed on seventh of October. You know, they feel
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: it hard. The mistakes were primarily in intelligence, secondarily not
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: having enough troops down in the perihreeka is they're all
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: home for the holidays. I don't think they'll make that
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: mistake again. But the reaction I think was remarkable. If
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: if you look at how fast they mobilized that many troops.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: It took the US six months to get ready for
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: the First Golf War to get all the stuff into theater.
• 42:32
  Speaker 2: The Israelis managed this in three weeks. Okay, there a
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: much shortter distance to go, but still mobilizing that many
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: troops in such a short amount of time and then
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: bringing off a successful ground maneuver operation that ended up
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: let us not forget with all of the hostages home,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: which nobody including me thought was ever going to happen.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: You know, there was political stuff at the American level
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: that led to that. But the bottom line is the
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: idea for performed incredibly well over the last two and
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: a half years, especially given that they're not fighting a
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: war that can end decisively. Just like in Iran right now,
• 43:03
  Speaker 2: there's no decisive thing, one thing that you can do
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: that guarantees that you win. It's the same in Ghaza,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: it's the same in the West Band, it's the same
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: in Lebanon. Managing those indefinite wars is really really difficult,
• 43:16
  Speaker 2: especially when you've got seven of them. Really impressive performance
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: in my opinion.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: So shal had occupied the entire guys of Strip, if
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: it did, if the cease fire had never happened and
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: they'd occupied the entire guys of Strip, could they bought
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: any into this or would have then just turned into
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: more of a kind of a gorilla kind of warfare
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: long term?
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you end up with Basra or Baghdad.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: If you do that. You know, her mass still have tunnels,
• 43:45
  Speaker 2: they still they're still digging tunnels, you know, on the
• 43:48
  Speaker 2: Yellow Line they're finding new tunnels pop up and people
• 43:50
  Speaker 2: shooting them out of them. You know, her mass is
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: still doing all that stuff. And of course you have
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: to think about what her mass was. They're not just
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: an insurgent force. They were the government, and they ruthlessly
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: purged people in the government who didn't support them. So
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: when people say things like, oh, the Ministry of Health
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: are just neutral civil servants, risible, stupid thing to say,
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: but I've heard people say it. You know, these are
• 44:15
  Speaker 2: all mass loyalists. And so not only do you have
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: to hold and occupy the whole of the guy's a strip,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: which would take probably the entirety of the idea that
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: oh do you have mobilized all the time, incredibly expensive,
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: but you also have to find a replacement governance. You
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: have to find a replacement judiciary, a replacement police force,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: replacement dudes to collect the garbage. You know, this is
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: an incredibly challenging thing to do. And it's not Nazi Germany.
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: Yes we did it in Germany in nineteen forty five.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: This is not Nazi Germany. They were political adherents or
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: many people would just shang hide into the Nazi Party's
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: membership because you couldn't get a job without it, whereas
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: these are true believer religious fanatics, and that's a very
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: different beast. So I think occupying the Shrip in its
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: entirety would have been a big mistake, and I think
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: it's a good thing that they didn't do it.
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: And do you agree that much of the so called
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: civilian population in Gaza buys into that religious fanaticism and
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: that that commitment.
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: Well, even if they don't, they still hate Israel, you know,
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: and that's that's really all you need is to recruit people.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: And look, I don't also don't buy the idea that
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: bombing for two years has suddenly turned the gardens against Israel,
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: where actually they have been fine beforehand. Of course, now
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: they already hated Israel to one hundred percent. You can't
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: take them beyond one hundred percent. So that's not an
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: argument I buy. I think it's a lazy one. But
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: you know, they don't have to be Hamass fanatics to
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: still hate Israel and still you know, be willing to
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: take a chance to drop an ID and let a
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: soldier walk over it. An insurgency of two million people
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: would be a hell of a thing to try and
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: manage if you're all I think that's a bit of
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: a nightmare scenario.
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: Franky ye Roman asked, what do you criticize the idea
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: of in Gods Are for?
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: What I criticized them for. Look, I didn't think Gideon's
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: Chariots was a great campaign. I thought it didn't achieve
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: particular amounts and it went heavier than it needed to.
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: I'd also criticize them for uh. I think the Humanitarian
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Foundation I was there last summer, and I think the
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: bottom line is if you're using live fire for crowd control,
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: get a new plan. Look, you can't. You can't guide
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: civilians around the battlefield with bullets. It just it's just
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: a stupid thing to do.
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: It was an own goal.
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: It gave so much ammunition to the other side because
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: people did. The people did unfortunately get shot by DF troops.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: That was bad.
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: And then I think the the cessation of aid was
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: an own goal just from an optical perspective, Like we
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: know there was enough aid in Gaza. There was always
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: an FAI throughout the war, three thousand cameters per day
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: per person on average, But by assuming that that was
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: reaching the people who needed it and saying right, we're
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: going to put a siege in as they did last year.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: I just think optically it was it was an own goal.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: And then finally, I think it's more of a wider
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: Israeli criticism than is an IDF criticism, Like they just
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: didn't fight the information war. They didn't even try, and
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: I think that was a terrible mistake. And now we're
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: seeing real strategic implications of that. Look at the fact
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: Europe won't come and help out.
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: You know they're giving legalistic excuses, but the reason is
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: because Israel polls in single digits in most European countries
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: in terms of support the help amongst Democrat voters. In
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: the US, they're polling single digits in the under twenty fives.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: Well among young Republicans the same way. I mean, there's
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: significant numbers of young Republicans now anti Israel for the
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: first time.
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's that's going to cause strategic problems a
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: long way down of the line. And you know, Israel's
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: going to need to find strategical autonomy before those those
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: young Republicans and young Democrats start being wielding the leaders
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: of power. Unfortunately, so I think no matter what security
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: they buy now, I think by not fighting the information
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: or they've stored up a real problem for sort of ten, fifteen,
• 48:19
  Speaker 2: twenty years time.
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Yep. Then ask I feel like the Ranian people haven't
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: unleashed on the regime yet they went out and accust
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: of the regime back when the regime was strong. Won't
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: they greatly weakened regime have enormous difficulties stopping them now?
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: Hopefully, I think is the answer. You have to remember
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: they're not armed, which and that the security forces are,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: and that you can hold up a pretty big crowd
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: with one machine gun. You know, you don't need to
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: have parity in terms of TRUP numbers to suppress a
• 48:52
  Speaker 2: crowd if you're willing to just open fire on them
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: and slaughter them on mass so that will be tricky,
• 48:57
  Speaker 2: and I think so my kind of I've floated it
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: a few times today in interviews. I think it holds up.
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: What I would be trying to do if I wanted
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: this to be successful, is to just focus on one
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: area's security forces, one or two, just degrade them as
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: much as you can and give the people in that
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: area the chance to season and the hold More importantly,
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: once you've got one or two areas, you can then
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: start to move to the next area and the next
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: area in the next area, rather than try and get
• 49:26
  Speaker 2: the whole country to rise up at once. The downside
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: of that plan, of course, is it takes a lot
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: of time, a lot of ammunition, and a lot of
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: political will. And I'm not convinced that all three of
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: those things are present right now, So it's very very tricky.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, looking at the targets that have been that
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: have been bombed in Tehran, it looks like the going
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: after those kind of target targets that would weaken resume response.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Is that your impression?
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. And you know, I spoke at
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: the top about the progression of targets where they move
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: from the leadership to the missiles, which were the big
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: you know, they had to get those missile rates of
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: fire down otherwise the Gulf States would run out of
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: missile defenses, so that was a really key priority. Now
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: that missile rate date is down, they can move on
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: to hitting the security sites and start degrading them and
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: hopefully creating that space for people to actually rise up
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: and take over. We're not there yet, but they're going
• 50:19
  Speaker 2: to keep doing that, and then i'd imagine the nuclear
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: sites that they're coming up with all sorts of crazy
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: plans for that stuff, and we spoke about that already. Yeah,
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: but it's very very clear. It's a very clear progression
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: of targets.
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Jimmy asks, is it a failure if we don't
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: kill Jamini's son? Apple doesn't seem to be far from
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: the tree. He actually seems more radical even than his father.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: How likely is Israel to find him in the near future?
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: And what is the most likely conclusion to this war?
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: So that's a light day.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a difficult one. And I think I think
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: we have to say President Possession as an example that
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: he's still alive, he's still broadcasting. He's obviously in a
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: bunker some where that can't be reached, but from the air, however,
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: he's losing control, and I think the election of ham
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: and a junior shows that there is a hard line
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: element that are in control here right now, which actually
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: I think makes the chance of them being deleted less
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: because they are, you know, they are clearly motivated hardliners,
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: and to have elected an even more hard line Ayatoller,
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: I'd imagine that Iotoler is now underground as well and
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: will be hard to hear. I mean there's talk that
• 51:28
  Speaker 2: he was wounded on day one potentially as well.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: I saw that that he might have lost a leg. Yeah,
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: and so we just we just don't know. I don't
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: know what in mine.
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: But what is clear is that the IOGDC are in charge.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: And I think that's that's the bigger takeaway from from
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: who they just elected.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: Yea. And in terms of how would you think the
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: leged conclusion.
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: Of this all is. It's a great question.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: And I don't know.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to stake my reputation. Yeah, I'm not
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: gonna I'm not going to go there. I can tell
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: you the factors that play into it. But there's so
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: many variables here that I'm not a batting man, and
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and we've got we've got a president who is
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: completely unpredictable and could could flip sides any day now,
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: who knows what he's what he's going to do. What
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: do you let's see, I have no idea if there's
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: a serious question. Okay. Thoughts on the movie adaptation Tom
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: Cruise and Top Gun Operation Epic fury Cruis is getting old.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I know, yeah, I'm no Trump fan,
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: but love watching the Ranian regime getting hammered. Wait. I
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: think that's that's it, and let's see. Super happy for
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: this crossover. Thanks you wanting Andrew for making it happened.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: Thank you, Leon, I appreciate that. So you've got this,
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: you've got a paper coming out or or sorry, it's
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: out already on kind of lessons urban warfare, Lessons from
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: what Israel did? I mean obviously you know, I'm not
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: going to ask you to say everything in it, but
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: maybe top level kind of conclusions of how Israel handled
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: the urban warfare landscape and particularly with regard to their
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: acquisitions against it in terms of not caring about civilian
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: casualties and things like that. How does this, how does
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: this compare to other urban warfare battles.
• 53:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, So the paper is called Lessons from Gaza and
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: it's through the Henry Jackson Society. You can find it
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: on their website if you google it, and it's twenty
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: thousand words and I think it's the first paper anyone's
• 53:41
  Speaker 2: written about how the idea of actually fought on the
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: ground in Gaza because there's a perception that all Israel
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: did was for Tiyeas just throwing missiles in and you know, indiscriminately,
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: and most people don't realize that most of the dampade
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: you see in Gaza was done by ground maneuver not
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: by airstrikes. And it's important that we understand how that
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: battle was forced. And the top line one for me,
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: I think, was the adaptation in conflict and how they
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: transformed the way they operated from the start of the
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: war to the end of it. They weren't ready for this,
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: of course, they weren't ready for it, and they had
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: to sort of mobilize, you know, hundreds of thousands of reservists,
• 54:16
  Speaker 2: give them a month and a half of training, and
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: then throw them into Gaza to effectively do on the
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: job training in some cases. And that quote is from
• 54:24
  Speaker 2: the IDF, not from me, tax saying that, you know,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: they admit on the job training and it did lead
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: to some mistakes early on, you know, discipline amongst reserves
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: wasn't good enough, and they let themselves down in their
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: country down by giving their enemies ammunition to use on
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: social media. They lost soldiers early because they weren't battle
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: harder than battle ready and this is this adaptation to
• 54:49
  Speaker 2: be this incredibly effective slick fighting force at the end
• 54:53
  Speaker 2: of the war is a great lesson and you can
• 54:55
  Speaker 2: look at how the IDF did that, and I've got
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: into detail and that in my paper and the other
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: i'll draw out for you before we run out of time.
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: I've got about five minutes later. That's okay. Is the
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: medical lessons, Like, the changes they've made to medical procedures
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: are incredible, and they've worked out that there are six
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: hundred IDF soldiers alive today who would have died from
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: the injuries they sustained in previous wards. But the changes
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: they've made, all data driven, really really impressive. And I'd
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: recommend you go look at the medical annex because if
• 55:24
  Speaker 2: there's one lesson we in the West can take from
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: the IDF, it's the medical side of things to keep
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: our troops alive when they go into harms.
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Way. Sure, that's pretty amazing. Wait, literally two quick questions here.
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: Christian says any states from Andrew concerning Hueza Paulavi and
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: a possible upraising in the future, does he believe in
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: regime regime change done by the unions themselves?
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's always the best way. It's far
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: better than an outside imposed reim change. Is Palavi the guy,
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: that's the question. I mean, he's popular amongst the day
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: aspro He's got a really good pr campaign in the
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: West behind him. Do the Iranian people share that? And
• 56:03
  Speaker 2: that's really the question, And we don't know. We can't
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: pull them, We can't get a sense for what the
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: average Iranian on the street feels for very obvious reasons.
• 56:12
  Speaker 2: So it's going to be a really tricky one. I
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: mean there's talk that people on the ground don't like
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: him because they remember his father, who wasn't particularly pleasant.
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: On the flip side, they might be really attracted by
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: anything that's better than what they've got there.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: And a lot of them are young and don't remember
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: his father, Yeah, exactly, So it's hard to say, but hopefully,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: you know, the real failure of.
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: Protesting around in previous years have been no main figure
• 56:38
  Speaker 2: to rally around. Yeah, you know that's a competing interest.
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: If they could provide it through parlavidn great, and that's
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: the dream, the dreams end state. I think it.
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: Seems like a real failure, and they have on behalf
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: of the Trump administration not having you know, at least
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: a plan something, But there's no sense that they have
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: a plan. It could have gone behind Paula V one
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: way or the other. They could have gotten behind somebody else,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: but it doesn't seem It seems like they're winging it
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: in terms of just expecting it to happen, the upraising.
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: Just throwing it out there and seeing what flies. It's
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: one way of doing it.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: I guess it will meet. This a final question because
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: I know if to want what percentage of guys and
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: support Hamas. I've heard different numbers from different sources, but
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think anybody knows definitively so, but.
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: Any sense you get the PCPSR polls they show declining
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: support over the war, but still at like thirty forty percent,
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: which is not bad.
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: And that's in Guards and in the West Bank it's
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: actually higher.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: Much higher. Yeah, if there was an election in the
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: West Bank tomorrow, the mass would win, which is really concerning.
• 57:46
  Speaker 2: You can also look on Guards and telegram groups on
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: on a number of them, and they tend to be
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: very mixed bags. Some people support them, others are very
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: very critical. But it's impossible to say.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Good well Thank you Andrew. I really appreciate this, very
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: super insightful. Hopefully we can do this again sometime. I
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: mean it's a bit calmer and I've got a bit
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: more time there you go, or if there's peaceful time,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe we don't need to, but but I have
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: a feeling that they'll we need so it'll be fun
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: if things ever slow down, it'll be fun to catch
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: up and do this again. Yeah.
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: Absolutely, well, thanks for having me. I already appreciate it
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: absolutely my pleasure.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: Thanks Andrew, Thanks guys, Thanks to all the super chatters.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: I will see you actually later today. By everybody, Okay,