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US vs. Iran - Is the war back on · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: A month-long lull in fighting between Iran and the United
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: States appears to be over after the two countries began
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: trading fire over the weekend. The U.S. hit Iranian rocket
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: launchers on Sunday, saying that Iran planned to use them
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran retaliated by firing
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: missiles at American bases in Jordan, which were all intercepted. Meanwhile,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Iran is accusing the U.S. of war crimes following a
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: deadly missile strike on a wedding reception.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: Overnight, American fighters and drones again took to the skies,
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz.
• 0:40
  Speaker 4: U.S.
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: President Trump confirmed the strikes on social media and threatened
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: more should Iran continue to retaliate in the face of
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: increasing American military pressure. Iranian state media also said several
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: targets were hit in and around the Strait. However, it
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: appears not all of the bombs hit military targets. This
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: is said to be the aftermath of one of the
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: strikes in the Sirik area of southern Iran. Eyewitnesses say
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: five people were killed and dozens more wounded after a
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: fighter jet bombed a wedding gathering. One victim described the scene.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: We were on our way to a wedding. Suddenly we
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: heard the sound of a fighter jet. When we arrived
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: there was an explosion. I went inside and there was
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: a person who had been struck on the head and
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: face by a building block and had lost consciousness. A
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: lot of children and women were horribly injured and everyone
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: there was an ordinary person.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: The US military says it is aware of the bombing
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: but denies it is actively targeting civilians. For its part,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps launched strikes on US targets in
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Jordan overnight. Iranian President Massoud Pesachian said his country was
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: ready to return to June's ceasefire agreement, but he warned
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: Iran would continue to retaliate if the U.S. 's air
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: campaign continues.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: Mbenem Bentablu is a senior fellow and senior Iran program
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He gave
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: me his assessment of whether the latest round will stay
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: limited or whether both sides are gearing up for a
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: larger fight.
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: Great to be with you, Sarah. It's an excellent question
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: because it seemed like Washington was shifting towards a more
• 2:34
  Speaker 4: economic rather than kinetic strategy towards the Islamic Republic. But
• 2:38
  Speaker 4: as the old saying goes, the adversary gets a vote.
• 2:41
  Speaker 4: I think what we'll be seeing in the very short
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: to medium term is a series of limited but continuing
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: military exchanges between the Islamic Republic and the United States.
• 2:52
  Speaker 4: particularly as we get into the midterm season, where if
• 2:54
  Speaker 4: the U.S. has the time to continue to impose sanctions
• 2:58
  Speaker 4: and meaningful costs against the regime, it is almost certain
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: that Tehran is going to respond.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: What do you think each side is trying to achieve
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: at this point?
• 3:08
  Speaker 4: There is actually, I think, a great amount of flexibility
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: in terms of what Washington wants versus what Washington will
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: settle for. But thus far, it seems like the Trump
• 3:17
  Speaker 4: administration seems to have opened or removed at least some
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: of the threats to the freedom of navigation in the
• 3:23
  Speaker 4: Strait of Hormuz by removing mines. So the U.S. certainly
• 3:26
  Speaker 4: wants more economic activity. That's not just a political decision.
• 3:30
  Speaker 4: That's an economic decision that shippers, insurers, and the private
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: sector are going to have to make, and they're going
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: to have to take into account these increasing U.S.-Iranian military
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: exchanges before they do so. But nonetheless, in the strategic sense,
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: America doesn't want the Islamic Republic to have a nuclear weapon.
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: It wants to make sure that its long-range strike programs
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: are curtailed, and its ability to engage in this kind
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: of maritime harassment is also curtailed. In the short term,
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: the Islamic Republic seeks survival, but the way it seeks
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: survival is very different. It's not about engagement. In my view,
• 4:02
  Speaker 4: it's about escalation.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Do you see any window for a credible off-ramp? I mean,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: the U.S. clearly wants to get out of this.
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: The U.S. does want to get out of this and
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: the U.S. does want a deal. But the funny thing is,
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: it's the Islamic Republic's military activity that is trying to
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: force the Trump administration to re-accept the terms that the
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: Islamic Republic itself violated. And those were the terms of
• 4:24
  Speaker 4: the MOU. You know, lest we forget, despite Donald Trump
• 4:27
  Speaker 4: being the architect of these maximum pressure sanctions, he also
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: showed through the MOU, the Memorandum of Understanding Act, just
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: a few months ago this summer, that he was willing
• 4:36
  Speaker 4: to be the undertaker of those sanctions. And even still,
• 4:40
  Speaker 4: the Islamic Republic blinked and fired on vessels, in particular
• 4:43
  Speaker 4: a Qatari vessel that was going through the southern route
• 4:46
  Speaker 4: of the Strait of Hormuz. So I think there is
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: no meaningful, peaceful end state that can be achieved so
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: long as the Islamic Republic is in power. And it
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: will really be coming down to how is the threat
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: managed by both sides and what kind of risks will
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: they run, particularly for the remaining two years that President
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: Trump is in office.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: And we've seen the Gulf states come into the crosshairs
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: now of Iran as a result here. Given that, do
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: you see this flare-up fundamentally changing the security architecture, you know, relationships,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: arrangements that the Gulf states have, especially with the United States?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, they must be reconsidering this as they have
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: become targets in this war.
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: I'm not sure these states are reconsidering, but if we
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: want to understand the way some of the Arab states
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: of the Persian Gulf are positioning themselves... Geostrategically, I might add,
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: it's always to think about the word and rather than or.
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: They're not moving away from the United States as much
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: as they are trying to create new orders within the
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: existing ecosystem of the GCC, for example. There is an
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: extra-regional group that is emerging diplomatically and politically that we
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: should pay attention to, STEP, Saudi, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, all
• 5:57
  Speaker 4: of which are major U.S. partners, but all of which
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: are seeming to take a different stance than towards the
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: Islamic Republic and mediation of the conflict between it and
• 6:06
  Speaker 4: the West. Also, of course, is pay attention to the
• 6:08
  Speaker 4: existing pro-American axis, particularly represented by Israel and the UAE.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: So there's lots of competing forces, even within the pro-American
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: tent of the status quo countries in the region.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: What do you think is the most misunderstood or perhaps
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: underreported aspect of this conflict and the way that it's
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: impacting the region?
• 6:30
  Speaker 4: You know, I really think the word conflict is apt,
• 6:33
  Speaker 4: but the most misunderstood and improperly reported, I would say,
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: is the real war that the Islamic Republic is fighting.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: And that's the war at home. That's the war against
• 6:42
  Speaker 4: its own people. And that's actually what got President Trump
• 6:45
  Speaker 4: to draw not one, but not two, but really between
• 6:48
  Speaker 4: eight or nine red lines in the month of January,
• 6:51
  Speaker 4: depending on how you count, in particular in response to
• 6:54
  Speaker 4: the regime's brutal crackdown against protests. Executions continue. Imprisonment continues.
• 7:00
  Speaker 4: And ultimately, the regime is worried about what the second,
• 7:03
  Speaker 4: third order social and political effects of the economic crunch
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: that it's feeling now, thanks to the U.S. sanctions, as
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: well as to the mismanagement that has long existed. it
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: will face. So the hybrid threat from foreign pressure and
• 7:15
  Speaker 4: domestic pressure is one to watch.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: Ben and Ben Tableau, Senior Fellow and Senior Iran Program
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: Director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Thanks so much.
• 7:26
  Speaker 4: Thank you.