Latest / Best of the NFL Podcast Network / NFL Week 18 Picks with Cynthia Frelund | Capitalizing on Teams Resting Starters
Transcript
- 0:04Speaker 1: Welcome to NFL Daily, where all good things let's come
- 0:08Speaker 1: to an end. I'm Greg Rosenthal here in the Chris
- 0:11Speaker 1: Wesleyan podcast there, and I'm not referring to twenty twenty five.
- 0:15Speaker 2: Happy New Year, by the way to everyone listening.
- 0:18Speaker 1: I'm not talking even about this pick show because we're
- 0:20Speaker 1: going straight through the playoffs.
- 0:22Speaker 2: I'm talking about what was the greatest streak in sports.
- 0:25Speaker 1: I have twelve straight winning weeks on this show, picking
- 0:28Speaker 1: only three games a week against the spread, and it
- 0:30Speaker 1: all came crashing down at the hands of Kirk Cousins
- 0:35Speaker 1: and John Robinson and that Falcons team.
- 0:37Speaker 2: So I went one and too.
- 0:38Speaker 1: I'm still very happy thirty two and nineteen on the season,
- 0:40Speaker 1: and most importantly, Cynthia is coming off an undefeated week.
- 0:45Speaker 3: Here we go.
- 0:46Speaker 1: You're gonna be hot going into the playoffs. Welcome Cynthia Freeland.
- 0:50Speaker 1: Thanks you ready for a final week. This is I
- 0:54Speaker 1: think a weedy trickster week. I think it's a week
- 0:56Speaker 1: of opportunity. I'm glad the NFL does not let us
- 0:59Speaker 1: actually pick these games and put our money behind it,
- 1:04Speaker 1: but I do think it's a week where you kind
- 1:06Speaker 1: of can understand the motivations of different team and take
- 1:09Speaker 1: advantage of some crazy lines. It's a very difficult week
- 1:13Speaker 1: for Vegas to set these lines, wouldn't you agree?
- 1:17Speaker 4: I mean, yeah, but those buildings are much bigger than
- 1:22Speaker 4: anything in my brain. All then anything we have, well,
- 1:24Speaker 4: this building is beautiful, but we don't own it, so
- 1:27Speaker 4: you know, yeah, No, I just think it's it's a
- 1:29Speaker 4: wonky week because even if someone's playing, does that mean
- 1:32Speaker 4: they're playing the full game? Does it mean they're playing
- 1:34Speaker 4: for the first quarter?
- 1:35Speaker 2: Right?
- 1:36Speaker 4: I mean once they see certain things that I don't know.
- 1:38Speaker 4: So you just have to be mindful of what you're doing,
- 1:41Speaker 4: don't be a djon.
- 1:42Speaker 1: So I think at the end, I might even run
- 1:45Speaker 1: through where we're at now, like where I think if
- 1:47Speaker 1: people are curious who's resting, who's not, But why don't
- 1:49Speaker 1: we go through a three pick each because we'll naturally
- 1:53Speaker 1: hit upon some of these situations. Now, last week, if
- 1:56Speaker 1: I was a spiteful man, I could remember that. Remember
- 1:59Speaker 1: I was decided in between two games, and you took
- 2:01Speaker 1: the Patriots away from me, and then then they were
- 2:04Speaker 1: up twenty one nothing in about seven minutes, and I
- 2:06Speaker 1: was thinking, oh, that would have been an easy money.
- 2:08Speaker 1: And then and then I got my ls. So I'm
- 2:10Speaker 1: giving you the first pick here. Hey, Cynthia, despite that
- 2:13Speaker 1: small little problem that I had with you.
- 2:15Speaker 3: Last week, if you could have taken it, I could have.
- 2:18Speaker 2: I regret it.
- 2:19Speaker 3: No, no one's saying that you're not.
- 2:21Speaker 4: We can double up. We can double up if you're right.
- 2:23Speaker 4: I did not say you couldn't take it.
- 2:26Speaker 2: No, I'm I'm blaming.
- 2:27Speaker 1: I'm hitting now and I'm not taking responsibility. That's a
- 2:30Speaker 1: bad job by me. Okay, you go first, all.
- 2:32Speaker 4: Right, great, I want to look at I think that
- 2:36Speaker 4: the uh, the Denver and the Chargers. I think Denver
- 2:43Speaker 4: it's a it's a lofty number at twelve and a half.
- 2:45Speaker 4: But the Broncos they want to secure the one. I'm
- 2:49Speaker 4: looking for people who have something to play for, and
- 2:51Speaker 4: Denver has. The thing to play for is the fact
- 2:54Speaker 4: that they get the one seed if they win, period
- 2:56Speaker 4: full stop.
- 2:57Speaker 2: Yep.
- 2:58Speaker 4: I mean they also get it if like other teams lose,
- 3:00Speaker 4: like if the the Jags and the Page. But like,
- 3:03Speaker 4: let's not rely on that, especially now that we know
- 3:06Speaker 4: that the Chargers they are not playing their starters.
- 3:09Speaker 3: It's going to be Trey Lance.
- 3:10Speaker 4: No shade on Trey Lance, But I believe that this
- 3:12Speaker 4: is a Denver defense and a Denver offense that's going
- 3:15Speaker 4: to be looking ahead and saying, all right, we need
- 3:17Speaker 4: to get on track really show like get good reps
- 3:20Speaker 4: because conceivably next.
- 3:21Speaker 3: Week would be their rest.
- 3:23Speaker 4: So I don't think it's two weeks of rest for
- 3:25Speaker 4: these guys. You know, the rust starts to come in there.
- 3:28Speaker 1: I think it could be a three hour celebration. I'm
- 3:32Speaker 1: totally with you. I like a lot of games this week,
- 3:36Speaker 1: so I might throw an extra one in at the end,
- 3:38Speaker 1: but I think, learning my lesson from last week, I'm
- 3:40Speaker 1: just gonna go with you on Denver and Chargers too,
- 3:43Speaker 1: because that is definitely one of my top two I
- 3:46Speaker 1: have two I really like.
- 3:47Speaker 2: Yeah, it's similar that I really like.
- 3:49Speaker 1: It's similar in terms of motivation, and we had a
- 3:52Speaker 1: situation last season that was almost identical this Now. Denver
- 3:57Speaker 1: needed to win in Week eighteen to get into the playoffs.
- 4:00Speaker 1: But do you remember who they faced off against in
- 4:02Speaker 1: Week eighteen? It was the Kings City Chiefs who were resting.
- 4:06Speaker 1: The final score was thirty eight to nothing, and I
- 4:10Speaker 1: just think Sean Payton, coming off of a couple wonky weeks,
- 4:14Speaker 1: to use the word that you used on this week's
- 4:16Speaker 1: game debut. Everyone check us out on NFL Network's going
- 4:20Speaker 1: to be playing all week Friday night Saturday morning. You
- 4:24Speaker 1: can also find that on YouTube. They just call it
- 4:26Speaker 1: game Picks. You can also find Cynthia Frielan on YouTube.
- 4:30Speaker 1: I always say go subscribe to her channel and check
- 4:33Speaker 1: out numbers game. I just think this is a team
- 4:37Speaker 1: in Denver that is going to swarm. This was going
- 4:40Speaker 1: to be a difficult matchup for the Chargers anyways, because
- 4:43Speaker 1: of their offensive line, and the Broncos are looking for
- 4:47Speaker 1: that team sack record. They're wanting to pad their numbers.
- 4:50Speaker 1: There's incentives. I think teams just love a situation like this,
- 4:54Speaker 1: and I think it could be incredibly one way traffic
- 4:58Speaker 1: where it's like twenty four to nothing at halftime or
- 5:00Speaker 1: something like that. All Right, so we agree on Denver,
- 5:02Speaker 1: we have the same first pick. We haven't done that
- 5:05Speaker 1: a lot this season, but in this weird week, I
- 5:07Speaker 1: don't want to get too cute. What is your second pick?
- 5:10Speaker 4: I'll let you go first because I can't remember. I mean,
- 5:13Speaker 4: I remember your who you have winning. I know where
- 5:15Speaker 4: we're different, but I can't remember which one you kind
- 5:17Speaker 4: of like the most.
- 5:18Speaker 1: Okay, the other one that I like the most. As
- 5:20Speaker 1: we're taping this, we're not confirmed. But logically, again, I
- 5:24Speaker 1: think the Viking Packers are a situation that people who
- 5:29Speaker 1: are into this sort of thing can take advantage of.
- 5:31Speaker 1: We have it at six and a half right now
- 5:34Speaker 1: for the Vikings. They are favored by that much because
- 5:37Speaker 1: the line is assuming that the Packers are not going
- 5:40Speaker 1: to play their starters. Matt Lafleur has set it without saying.
- 5:44Speaker 3: I believe what he said was he's not going to tell.
- 5:47Speaker 4: Yes, he's been close to the vest, but early in
- 5:49Speaker 4: the week it means yeah, not playing.
- 5:52Speaker 3: Yes, they're locked into the seventh seed. Why why they can't?
- 5:55Speaker 4: They can't do anything but harm their chances by getting
- 5:58Speaker 4: someone hurt.
- 5:59Speaker 1: And they have a lot of banged up important players
- 6:01Speaker 1: Yosh Jacobs, Jordan Love certainly some of the key defenders
- 6:04Speaker 1: on defense. You can only sit so many. I get
- 6:06Speaker 1: all that. The big thing for me is we might
- 6:10Speaker 1: not know until game time who's starting at quarterback, but
- 6:14Speaker 1: I feel pretty good that it's gonna be Clayton Tune,
- 6:16Speaker 1: not Malik Willis, Because to me, if you're putting out
- 6:19Speaker 1: your backups and not really trying to win this game,
- 6:22Speaker 1: you might as well go whole hog and keep your
- 6:25Speaker 1: backup quarterback healthy because you don't know what's up with
- 6:28Speaker 1: Jordan Love. He's coming off of a concussion. Malik Willis
- 6:31Speaker 1: also has an injury right now.
- 6:33Speaker 3: Yep, his is a shoulder, not a concussion.
- 6:34Speaker 1: And Minnesota's defense, let's be real, it's playing better than
- 6:38Speaker 1: any defense in the entire league. If the Packers were
- 6:41Speaker 1: playing all their starters, and it sounds like JJ McCarthy
- 6:44Speaker 1: might come back, which I think is an upgrade for
- 6:46Speaker 1: them over Max Brosber, don't you think Minnesota would have
- 6:48Speaker 1: a chance to win this game straight up?
- 6:51Speaker 2: Anyways?
- 6:51Speaker 1: At home the home field advantage, like against the Packers' starters.
- 6:54Speaker 1: I kind of think I would take the Vikings in
- 6:56Speaker 1: this game the way these two teams are playing. So
- 6:58Speaker 1: all of that is to say I love just six
- 7:01Speaker 1: and a half points. I think they went by a lot.
- 7:03Speaker 4: I mean, I feel like this one could be six
- 7:05Speaker 4: to one half a dozen of another. I agree with
- 7:08Speaker 4: everything that you said, but I feel like something stupid
- 7:11Speaker 4: could happen too, because none of this stuff matters, So
- 7:14Speaker 4: like something stupid where like Packers pick six with some
- 7:17Speaker 4: yeah corner that hasn't played it.
- 7:20Speaker 3: Whatever. I just feel like something I don't know. A
- 7:23Speaker 3: lot of these games. I feel like a lot of
- 7:24Speaker 3: stupid stuff could happen.
- 7:25Speaker 1: Obviously, I'm influenced by the Christmas Day game, but the
- 7:29Speaker 1: crowd was so amped for that game, and it's a
- 7:33Speaker 1: division matchup, and what really is selling me is some
- 7:37Speaker 1: of the soft stuff you can't put into the model.
- 7:39Speaker 1: It was Harrison Smith after the game saying I've never
- 7:43Speaker 1: been a part of a better performance than this, And
- 7:46Speaker 1: if you go look at what they've done in the
- 7:48Speaker 1: last eight weeks something like that, they haven't given up
- 7:50Speaker 1: a passing touchdown.
- 7:51Speaker 2: He said.
- 7:51Speaker 1: This defense, which is an older group, maybe Brian Flores
- 7:55Speaker 1: is leaving, maybe Harrison Smith is leaving. It's a lot
- 7:59Speaker 1: of guys who have been there together and they're having
- 8:01Speaker 1: fun playing ball right now. This feels kind of like
- 8:03Speaker 1: a last fun Like what could be more fun than
- 8:06Speaker 1: just beating down on an overmatch Packers team.
- 8:08Speaker 2: I just it just makes a lot of thunse.
- 8:10Speaker 3: I'm with you, I'm with you, but it's just not
- 8:12Speaker 3: one of my favorite ones.
- 8:13Speaker 2: Okay, what's your second pick?
- 8:14Speaker 3: The Rams?
- 8:15Speaker 4: Okay, Sean McVay says that the starters will at least play.
- 8:19Speaker 3: I think he was a little I'm not mad.
- 8:22Speaker 4: I'm just disappointed right about what happened on Monday night
- 8:25Speaker 4: against Atlanta. I think, you know, I don't care. It
- 8:29Speaker 4: was it seven and a half. I understand that there's
- 8:31Speaker 4: like a hook involved.
- 8:33Speaker 3: I don't care.
- 8:34Speaker 4: The Arizona Cardinals are so banged up their defense. I
- 8:38Speaker 4: feel like it might be easier to make a list
- 8:39Speaker 4: of who's playing than who's not playing. From who the
- 8:42Speaker 4: projected starters were the head ahead of the season.
- 8:44Speaker 3: I don't think Marvin.
- 8:45Speaker 4: Harrison Junior's playing, like yeah, I think there's a lot
- 8:47Speaker 4: of missing pieces, and I think the Cardinals are kind
- 8:49Speaker 4: of like, okay, next, I mean Jacoby Brissett, notwithstanding he's
- 8:53Speaker 4: been great, saying with Trey McBride, like, there's a lot
- 8:55Speaker 4: of great things. But I'm not saying that they are
- 8:57Speaker 4: punting on the whole season. I'm just saying that I
- 8:59Speaker 4: don't thinking this matchup. I think that the Rams need
- 9:02Speaker 4: to dial in. They're not getting a buye. You know,
- 9:04Speaker 4: they're not gonna get They're not getting home field. They
- 9:07Speaker 4: got to dial in. That was not the loss they
- 9:09Speaker 4: wanted Matthew Stafford has not. He's thrown like seven interceptions
- 9:12Speaker 4: all season long, so these are weird stuff.
- 9:14Speaker 3: They need to get the weirds out.
- 9:15Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think they want Stafford to go into
- 9:18Speaker 1: the playoffs with the positive drives.
- 9:21Speaker 2: And I think the defense.
- 9:22Speaker 1: Again, there's only so many players you can sit anyways,
- 9:25Speaker 1: but I think they want to get the defense, yep,
- 9:27Speaker 1: on track and this Cardinals team has been phoning it
- 9:29Speaker 1: in for a while. Okay, now we're to the third pick,
- 9:32Speaker 1: and I really I love those first two picks, and
- 9:37Speaker 1: I like a lot of others, but I just don't
- 9:39Speaker 1: love them.
- 9:40Speaker 2: So maybe I'll just go through some of the options.
- 9:42Speaker 1: Yeah, I think my top options and I'll give my
- 9:45Speaker 1: like extra picks at the end. My top options would
- 9:48Speaker 1: be the Bills favored only by a touchdown in the
- 9:52Speaker 1: final game at Ralph Wilson Stadium, despite the fact we
- 9:55Speaker 1: would expect to see Mitchell Trubisky and some of the
- 9:57Speaker 1: backups and then Josh Allen will be starting. But they're
- 9:59Speaker 1: playing the yet the emotions and the way that I
- 10:03Speaker 1: think they're.
- 10:03Speaker 2: Gonna want to start with Josh Allen, that's one.
- 10:05Speaker 3: I would go with.
- 10:05Speaker 2: That one.
- 10:06Speaker 1: Okay, the other two are the two and AFC South teams. Again,
- 10:09Speaker 1: we're taking clear motivations, yep, and I'm taking you know,
- 10:13Speaker 1: I kind of like the Jags and Texans as heavy
- 10:17Speaker 1: favorites to cover their numbers.
- 10:19Speaker 2: Now. Are the Texans a team that you can trust
- 10:23Speaker 2: to cover ten and a half at home against Riley Leonard?
- 10:26Speaker 2: I think they are.
- 10:27Speaker 1: The Jaguars are playing for their division championship against a
- 10:31Speaker 1: really bad Titans one. I like that a lot too.
- 10:34Speaker 1: But you said to go with the Bills. I think
- 10:36Speaker 1: I will. I think you helped get over the top.
- 10:38Speaker 4: I mean, look, I'm with you on all three. I
- 10:41Speaker 4: agree with your logic on all three. But I just
- 10:44Speaker 4: don't think like the Bills, this is it at an
- 10:47Speaker 4: iconic stadium, Like they're moving to their parking lot. Their
- 10:50Speaker 4: whole new stadium is ready next season, but this is it.
- 10:53Speaker 4: So you're telling me that they don't have some like
- 10:57Speaker 4: I don't know you said Ray Davis on game rebut
- 10:59Speaker 4: I'm with you on that some crazy play that's stupid
- 11:03Speaker 4: to alignment, like maybe Dion Dawkins scores a touchdown for goodness,
- 11:07Speaker 4: something like that that like means something to them against
- 11:10Speaker 4: a Jets team where has been totally deflated since like
- 11:14Speaker 4: a while back.
- 11:15Speaker 3: I just feel like, I'm totally with you.
- 11:18Speaker 4: I don't and I think that number is very achievable
- 11:20Speaker 4: to Like, if that number we're twelve and a half,
- 11:22Speaker 4: I might feel different because maybe they just kind of
- 11:26Speaker 4: cover at the end, But the number is tasty enough
- 11:29Speaker 4: where I just think the Bill they want to go
- 11:32Speaker 4: out on that high note there.
- 11:33Speaker 3: They also really want to get.
- 11:35Speaker 4: Everyone wants the coveted five seed, both AFC NFC. That
- 11:40Speaker 4: five seed is like such an advantage because both of
- 11:43Speaker 4: the four seeds seem very lackluster this year in the
- 11:46Speaker 4: NFC South and of course the AFC North. So the
- 11:49Speaker 4: Bills are like, we want that five seed, so they're
- 11:51Speaker 4: really motivated to it. They're not gonna in any way
- 11:53Speaker 4: leave this one to chance. That's my I agree.
- 11:57Speaker 1: The only thing that's tricky there is just the slight
- 12:00Speaker 1: hesitation about motivation and going all out. Whereas you know,
- 12:04Speaker 1: the Jaguars are doing everything that they need to do
- 12:08Speaker 1: to go beat the Titans.
- 12:09Speaker 3: But like, do they beat them by twelve and a half.
- 12:11Speaker 1: I think they will, and that's why I like them all.
- 12:14Speaker 1: I will go with the Bills. I mean, I don't know.
- 12:15Speaker 3: Don't let me talk you into it.
- 12:17Speaker 2: What do you like as your third pick?
- 12:19Speaker 3: I mean I like all of those. Yeah, I like.
- 12:22Speaker 3: I mean, I'll go with whichever one you don't like.
- 12:23Speaker 4: I think the Houston number against Indianapolis where Philip Rivers
- 12:27Speaker 4: is like in the building helping out.
- 12:30Speaker 2: Yeah, he's the best.
- 12:31Speaker 4: Ley Leonard like like, I mean, it just feels like
- 12:35Speaker 4: perhaps you're conceding the like ten and a half in
- 12:38Speaker 4: that situation, feels pretty solid.
- 12:42Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 12:43Speaker 1: Everyone gave Riley Leonard a nice pat on the back
- 12:45Speaker 1: for coming in a few weeks back and looking Okay,
- 12:49Speaker 1: I think it's a little different starting the game against
- 12:52Speaker 1: Housy in the Houston talk about a game that's gonna
- 12:56Speaker 1: be a party. All right, You want to pick the
- 12:57Speaker 1: Texans as your third one? Yeah, okay, I mean unless
- 13:00Speaker 1: you really want to. I like all of them. I'll
- 13:01Speaker 1: take everyone.
- 13:03Speaker 2: I like them all too. I gotta say in the end, the.
- 13:06Speaker 4: Only other one that I think it's worth considering to
- 13:08Speaker 4: be on the list would be Philadelphia to cover three
- 13:10Speaker 4: and a half points.
- 13:11Speaker 2: Interesting, okay, with their backup. I agree with you. That's
- 13:14Speaker 2: what I had.
- 13:14Speaker 1: I think Tanner McKee and their backups are good enough.
- 13:16Speaker 1: I gotta say, I gotta go with my gut. My
- 13:19Speaker 1: gut likes the Jags even more than the Bills.
- 13:21Speaker 3: So that's I'll go with the I'll switch to the Bills.
- 13:24Speaker 1: Okay, So everyone keeping track, you can look, you can
- 13:27Speaker 1: like them all. We're giving them, we're giving away. You
- 13:29Speaker 1: don't have to just pick three games at home. You
- 13:31Speaker 1: can choose whatever you want. But for my official picks,
- 13:35Speaker 1: we're gonna both go in on the Broncos minus twelve
- 13:39Speaker 1: and a half to beat the Chargers backups. I'm taking
- 13:42Speaker 1: the Vikings minus six and a half. And in the end,
- 13:45Speaker 1: I kind of just my gut, I like the Jags
- 13:47Speaker 1: minus twelve and a half a little more than the Bills,
- 13:50Speaker 1: but I really like the Bills.
- 13:52Speaker 3: Two, I'm doing the Bills.
- 13:53Speaker 1: You have the Bills minus seven, you have the Rams,
- 13:55Speaker 1: and then you have the Broncos. What a great twenty
- 13:59Speaker 1: twenty five we showing.
- 14:01Speaker 3: For having me?
- 14:01Speaker 2: Oh, I mean, look, we got we got the playoffs
- 14:04Speaker 2: to go.
- 14:04Speaker 4: I know, but I still am grateful for twenty twenty five.
- 14:07Speaker 4: Though you're you're people. I always say this, like you
- 14:11Speaker 4: are the hardest person, working person, in the building. You're
- 14:13Speaker 4: here every freaking day, and it's this is a tough year,
- 14:17Speaker 4: as a challenging year around here, and you've been crushing it.
- 14:18Speaker 1: So only only because you're back at the at the
- 14:21Speaker 1: house running your computer models. You're not here, but you're
- 14:25Speaker 1: doing that in numbers game and everything else. But yeah,
- 14:27Speaker 1: we're gonna keep it going. And I like that Cynthia's
- 14:30Speaker 1: coming off an undefeated three and zero week, and uh,
- 14:33Speaker 1: I kind of like uh in the normal games too,
- 14:36Speaker 1: kind of like the Bears. I kind of like the
- 14:37Speaker 1: Dolphins that cover ten and a half, kind of like
- 14:39Speaker 1: the Browns, but those are those are just.
- 14:41Speaker 2: I feel little, I feel as we.
- 14:43Speaker 4: I like like sure, but like also unsure, you know
- 14:49Speaker 4: what I mean, Like just because stupid stuff happens in
- 14:53Speaker 4: games and characters, like does Miles Garrett get the record?
- 14:57Speaker 3: Gosh?
- 14:57Speaker 4: I hope so yes, Like I hope they sell out
- 15:00Speaker 4: to make sure he gets that right. No, I don't
- 15:01Speaker 4: want Joe Burder get hit, don't get me wrong, but like,
- 15:03Speaker 4: just give him the dang record.
- 15:05Speaker 1: I saw that line and I was like, do I
- 15:07Speaker 1: trust the Cincinna. I know they've been playing well lately?
- 15:10Speaker 1: Do I trust the Cincinnati Bengals.
- 15:12Speaker 2: In the twenty five season.
- 15:13Speaker 1: To be favored by seven and a half when you're
- 15:15Speaker 1: going up against one of the best defense league, I
- 15:17Speaker 1: really don't. So the Browns are just one a little extra.
- 15:20Speaker 1: But we have our three official picks locked in. We
- 15:23Speaker 1: locked splowdact.
- 15:24Speaker 4: Next week sounds good and the best week of all
- 15:27Speaker 4: of the season.
- 15:28Speaker 3: I feel like WOWD Week.
- 15:30Speaker 2: I do too, because it's over three days.
- 15:32Speaker 1: You get that Monday night little extra, you get the
- 15:35Speaker 1: three games on Sunday and an underdog could win. But
- 15:38Speaker 1: you know what, we got a great weekend of football ahead.
- 15:41Speaker 1: The Saturday games. Will be recapping it all live on
- 15:44Speaker 1: YouTube on Sunday night.
- 15:46Speaker 2: Join us there.