Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 28: Big 10 & Big 12 Betting Preview

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Episode 28: Big 10 & Big 12 Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages. It's time.
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It's time to pull out the crazy sheet. It's time to download it.
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Get it in your car, get it into your earphones, take you
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a little walk, and get ready talking about some college football. I'm marking.
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I'm here in the college football podcasting studio and Scottie obviously is never at
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home. He's on the road. But brother, how the hell are you?
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Man? I'm good. You got to have us a little dinner last
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night, little Mexican food, little tequila, little couple of cold beers.
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It was good. Good to catch up. We almost recorded live to day,
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but my schedule was kind of kind of a mess, so we'll get
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it back to the way we always do it. That's absolutely great, Scotti.
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Tonight we're gonna do something we haven't done in a long time. We're
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gonna do two podcasts at the same time. We're gonna cover the big conferences.
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We're gonna go to the Big ten and we're gonna go to the Big
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twelve. We're gonna try to knock this out and under an hour, give
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you some information, hopefully, just get you through your commute. Scotty,
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I want to start with the Big Ten. When you're looking at the Big
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Ten, the obviously it's top loaded. You've got some Michigan, You've got
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some Ohio States, you've got some Penn State. This is the last year
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I believe that the Big Ten is playing in two different divisions. Is that
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correct? That's correct. Thanks to the SEC they both go go go one.
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You know, just top two will play in the championship. So that
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should be a lot of fun. We'll obviously get a rematch probably a couple
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of times with Michigan and Ohio State, or Michigan Penn State, Ohio State
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Penn State. However that deal works out. But and then some years,
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you know, obviously we'll have another thing jump up there and be good.
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Could be USC, the UCLA or somebody like that. I'm fast thinking about
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the Big Pen this year. I mean, you've got a complete disaster at
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Northwestern, UM. They're going to be terrible. The best players gone.
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I think getting out the data linebacker is going to afford to State. So
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if he's gone, I can't imagine there's not going to be more of them.
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Why in the world would you go deal with that when you can just
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go play football? Sir. A lot of big news today in college football.
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The Northwestern annouced they weren't going to pick ten media day. Um,
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so that and don't blame them that were supposed to say, you know,
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and that's just got disasterate and all every but big news. Simmy Tuberville and
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Joe Manson introducing legislation for nil. One caveat in that bill today is you
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will no longer be able to transfer unless you've been into school for three years,
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except for specific reasons coach leaving, death in the family, etcum.
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Highly recommend that part of the bill. It will make coaches really recruit kids
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that they really want. U there's too much you hit the road as well
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as the player hitting the road. There's there's both sides of that street.
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As we talked about on previous podcasts. So that day in college football,
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Big ten gonna do wild this year. I think Wisconsin is the team I'm
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the most fascinated to see. That offense looked fickle, but that team is
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still good. They're gonna play I think, pretty good defense, and what
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I'm expecting out of that offense is for them to be different, to kind
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of light it up a little bit. But I think they're also going to
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lay a couple of just eggs. Because they throw the football so much,
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it's gonna be interesting to see how well they can run the football. Wanting
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to throw the football that much, it's gonna be fascinating to see how it
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goes. I mean, remember, well, I'm going to some guys to
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put up some big rushing yards at North Carolina too. So, like I
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said, there's to me, they're the team that I'm the most excited to
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watch. You know, obviously Ten State, Michigan and a lot of State
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are obviously, you know, just just big time. So it's gonna be
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a lot of fun. Big Ten, as always, is a great league,
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gonna be really fun to watch. Now, I totally agree with you
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with the Big Ten. I think it's gonna be one of the more interesting
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conferences this season. I honestly, I think Michigan's probably the cream of the
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crop. Ohio States receiving corps is sick, and I actually think their defense
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could be really good. I'm super interested to see what it's gonna be like
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with Jim Noles having a whole season underneath them. They've got a pretty solid
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defensive line. They've changed up a couple of things, and I look forward
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to seeing how that's gonna affect him. Wisconsin's obviously interesting. People don't realize,
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though, Phil long ago when he was coaching at the same Houston State
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as the offensive coordinator, they were the leading rushing team in the country that
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year, And so he knows what he has there. He's got some road
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grader lineman that he hasn't coached in several years. He's probably got a better
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offensive line even than when he coached it Old miss that one year, one
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or two years is there and so I look for him to Braylon Edwins to
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still have a big season, And so I am interesting the Big Ten.
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That being said, Scotty, my favorite team in the Big Ten this year,
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Let's go Iowa Hawkeyes. Baby. Anytime you've a head coach whose sons
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the offensive coordinator, who has a reperendum that he has to score twenty five
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points a game to keep his job and get a two year extension is really
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interesting to me, especially the fact that he's got a transfer quarterback from Kaye
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McNamara coming in there. And so I'm looking forward. I'm looking forward to
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watching some Iowa this may be an Iowa podcast this season because Phil Parker,
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to me is the best defensive coordinator in the country and he does so much
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with Iowa And we're gonna dig more into that later. But man, the
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Big Ten to me is super interesting. Scotty, first bet you want to
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make in the Big Ten? When you're looking at these numbers, Michigan,
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who do you think is gonna win the Big Ten? Do you think there's
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any value in trying to but these teams here? You know, I really
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don't. I think I think I think Penn State, you know, may
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get they may get the best you know part of the schedule. I really
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like. You know, Penn State is at of Hose State, Illinois,
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Northwestern in Maryland. Man, they all be able to navigate that. I
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mean, look obviously out of Hoe State, probably in l I don't,
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man, I don't think any of those teams at the high end are are
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worth it because I think any of those teams, I think any of those
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teams can get it done. Um, you know you're talking ten and a
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half for Michigan. You know it's there's big numbers up there. I find
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it hard to believe. As good as this roster is for Michigan that they're
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not gonna win eleven games. I can't imagine they're gonna lose two games.
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But you know what, you just don't know. This is a really good
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league. Look, there's some books this is down, but if you still
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get three and a half on Northwestern, there's no way you don't go under.
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I think that they may go oh and twelve. I mean that team's
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a mess. And like they played Duke and then on conference, that's a
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gigantic game for Duke Um. You know what was shaping up to be a
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really good ball game. So I think when you're looking at over under win
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totals in this league, I think you want to look more down the board.
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I think I think Penn State's intriguing it nine and a half because candidly
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quarterback play. It was like you were waiting on him last year to make
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a big mistake, and a lot of their losses that happened. You know,
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the team's there, they got a chance to win. It's like Clifford
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was always I just never felt like that guy had great control and when the
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ball game was on the line, that he was going to close it down.
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Uh and and and he did a lot that that's my interpretation. That
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is not what he did. He was a good quarterback, but I just
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feel like they can get more out of that position, especially with those two
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great youngbacks. So I think they've got a little bit of value. I
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find it hard to believe that with that schedule they're gonna lose more than two.
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So on the top end, I would take Penn State. Hmm.
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Interesting looking at Michigan, you're talking about their ten and a half over under
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win total shaded towards the over to minus one thirty five to the over under
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his plus one oh five. When you look at this Michigan schedule, I
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think it's very manageable. East Carolina UNLV Bowling Green, Rutgers at Nebraska at
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Many, Indiana, Michigan State by Perdue, Penn State, Maryland, Ohio
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State. So in reality, if you're looking at Michigan betting the over here
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and you're shading it to minus one thirty five, you're having to lay some
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cheese down. But until they get to the last three weeks of the season
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where they're at Penn State and they get to get in Ohio State at home,
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if you're looking at that one, I don't necessarily think it's bad value
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because I don't think they're gonna slip up and lose an earlier game this year
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hardball. It's so funny to me that this guy has done what he's done
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because I always thought he was a good coach, and a lot of people
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three years ago were to roll him out and COVID hits. You kind of
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have to sit around and figure out what's going on, and he gets this
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thing on the rails. He's got some dogs up there. Man offense is
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performing well. They've got some new coaching in there, which I think could
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be interesting. I would not be scared to lay a ten and a half.
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I haven't done it yet on Michigan, but I think they could get
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there. Now. On the flip side, let's go to the other school
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in the state, in Michigan State. I have no fucking idea what Meltucker
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is doing at Michigan State this team. If you can find an over under
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at Michigan State, it's six, I would say take it, and you're
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gonna have to pay some juice because a lot of places now and minus five
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and a half is up to one eighty two hundred on this team. This
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team loses their quarterback, they lose their best wide receiver, they lost their
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tight end of the NFL Draft, their best defensive players are gone. The
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defense on this team has not been in the top one hundred the last two
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years. Kenth Walker came in and made him different couple of years ago,
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but the box that they have coming in this year, they're not even on
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the field for other teams. And so if you're looking at this from a
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value standpoint, I think Michigan State is a fade team almost all season long.
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Yeah, I don't disagree with that. UM, A couple of a
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couple of other teams you talked about your your IWA Hawk as I think that.
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I definitely think they're going over seven and a half. Um. I
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just like the way their schedule shapes up. They got Utah State, Iowa
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State, UM Western, Michigan, Michigan State at home, Illinois, Purdue
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Minnesota, Northwestern Rudgers. Those are those are all games that I think they
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win. UM. You know, so that's my that's my gut. I
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like them over seven and a half. I'm gonna give you one down at
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the bottom as well. UM. I kind of like, look, I
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think Nebraska is also gonna go over six. I think Rules doing a good
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job. I can't figure out how they were that bad. He's a good
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football coach, especially in college. It may not be smooth sailing, but
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I think there's some weakness in the middle of this league. Um So I
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think they've got a chance to get it done. Again. Love their non
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conference schedule Colorado, Northern Illinois, Louisiana Tech. That you make some hay
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right there that gets you halfway home. So then they've got a Maryland,
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Northwestern Purdue. Those are games they can certainly win. At Illinois m you
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know, those are games that they've at least got a chance. And so
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I think they've got a chance to go over. And also, like you're
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gonna love this boy, I like me a little Rudgers. I think Rudgers
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gonna get Bowl eligible and and I think a lot a lot of that feel
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for me is in Look, I know there's you know, there's a lot
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of there's a lot of guys that probably still think he should probably still beat
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the Tennessee coach. But I just think they're at this point in that rebuild
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where he is. I think this is probably a year that Greciano steps forward.
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So I'm looking for those guys to get But they won five games,
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went back to four games last year. I think this year they get it.
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I think they got a chance to really get ball eligible. But look
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to get over this number. At at four and a half, you only
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need five wins, so I think they get boll eligible. But I think
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I think they go over that number. I think they at least get five.
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So next thing, I've gotten this ones I've actually got money on.
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I bet Indiana. I've bet Indiana at four under four and I bet them
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at minus one twenty and I actually came back and bet Indiana again under three
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and a half at plus one forty. If you look at Indiana, since
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Calin Debor has left, this program has not been good. They had a
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really good peak in twenty nineteen where they only lost four games, where they
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lost to Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, and Ohio State, COVID
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HIT, they lost to Old Miss in the Bowl, they lost to Ohio
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State, and then Dubor leaves. He takes a job at Fresno, you
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know during that season, then he goes on to Washington. Obviously, the
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following year they won two games. They'd beat Western Kentucky and Idaho in twenty
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twenty one, and then last year they'd beat a bad Michigan State team,
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Western Kentucky, Idaho, and Illinois. I do think Illinois is gonna be
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down. But when you're looking at this schedule and you're trying to find four
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wins in it, they got Ohio State, Indiana State, Louisville, Akron
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at Maryland, at Michigan, Rutgers, Penn State, Whiskey Illinois, and
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Michigan State, and Purdue. I think Indiana State, Akron, Illinois,
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and Michigan are coin flips, and Rutgers. I think under three and a
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half if you can get plus one forty, which is you can see that
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in some of the books. I don't necessarily think that's a bad beat.
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I think Tom Allen gets fired at the end of October, if not in
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the middle of October. By this point he once killing the board left.
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He's kind of lost everything in this deal. And so I like Indiana under
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three and a half, under four. If you find a four, I
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like Indiana under four for sure. Yeah, I don't disagree with that.
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I think I think much like Northwestern they're gonna be I think they're gonna be
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a mess. You know, the quarterbacks coming over from Tennessee. Obviously you're
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looking at a third team QB last year coming over getting I think it's Tavern
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Tavin Jackson. I thinks kid's name. You got a guy who doesn't have
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a lot of experience, you know, Walt Bells the offensive coordinator. Tom
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Allen's a defensive guy, you know. So I'm with you. I'm not
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real fired up on this Illinois team. So I'm with you. Under is
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the play they're specially getting the number? What do you think about Bert Biela
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mutt it's six with Illinois. Give an opinion on that team, because you
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know what I think, I cannot. I don't. But how are they
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gonna score any less points on offense than they did last year? I mean,
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and they and they had better quarterbacks. I mean, they had a
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really good quarterback and they still couldn't score. I mean, and I find
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it hard to believe losing those two dvs, they're gonna They're not gonna take
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a little bit of step back on the defensive side of the football. I
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mean, they could really cloud to crowd the line of scrimmage because they could
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get up in your face. I mean, they can get up in anybody's
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face on defense, and um, I think they're gonna struggle with that.
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I like bilamug You knows that. Who's the quarterback there? Luke Altimat.
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Yeah, this for the kid from old Ministers from Starkville, so uh interesting
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to see how that works out. I do think he's do think he's you
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know, got a little bit of talent, so be interesting to see how
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they use him. Um. But like I said, I find it hard
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to believe that that team is going to be as good as they were last
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year because that was a you know, that was a pretty good football team.
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I think I think they take a step back. But you know,
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in that West, a lot depends on what you get, you know.
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I mean you look at this schedule. I think they lose to Toledo right
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out of the box, and I think that's what Spirals is still sideways.
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I think they got a chance. They played Toledo at home, and they're
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at in and and then they then they're tens stayed at home. Where does
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this season go? You know, if they're owing three inner hosting FAU,
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I mean where where does that go? They obviously probably win that, But
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then they got a chance to kind of write the ship at Doue, their
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north their brasketting home. They started playing teams that are in that wheelhouse.
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You know, they still got Indiana, they got Northwestern end of the year,
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I colligible cannot imagine they got above that. I certainly can't see you
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guys one of eight games again. Fuck no, another interest one of me.
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Purdue coaching change, complete coaching change. You go from Jeff Bram to
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a defensive coach that's coming in here wants to be a defensive coordinator. Hudson
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card playing quarterback. I don't think it is a bad downgrade from Aidan O'Connell
17:27
last year. The differences you don't have Bram calling the plays, and I
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don't know how wide opened the offense is going to be. Where I look
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to Purdue this year, they're one of the worst Power of five teams in
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the country in my opinion, based on what the roster is this year,
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I look for Purdue to shade to being an under football team most of the
17:45
season. I think this team's gonna rely on us defense. I don't look
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for it to be very explosive. They're over underwent totals sitting around six to
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five, and it's mainly down at five and a half now, and you've
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got to lay a ton of juice to get down under five and a half,
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and so I don't know that there's any value left in that. But
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one thing I will tell you is first week of the season, they play
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Fresno State in West Lafayette, and I'm gonna wait and see where that line
18:11
settles for the over under total, and I'm probably going to be on the
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under in that one because I look for Brdue to play a lot more defense.
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Obviously at Fresno State. Tedford's still there, but you lose Hainter,
18:23
the quarterback at Fresno State. He says, everything's gonna keep running the way
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it's supposed to. I don't know how explosive they're gonna be at Fresno State,
18:32
but I look for for Due to play a kind of a buttoned up
18:33
style offense and then play a hard defense. And I think there's gonna be
18:37
a lot of unders in Purdue games, whereas their defense in the last couple
18:41
of years hasn't been that important. As you know, once Karloft just left
18:45
then they've been able to score. It will a lot of teams having some
18:48
big upsets there. But I look for Purdue to be a team that we
18:52
can look to the under every single week, at least in the first few
18:53
weeks until they make some adjustments, and I think you could get it done
18:57
there. So that's one thing I've been looking at, trying to look further
19:00
into the season with this big ten. So it's I don't know, it's
19:03
interesting to me, but that's what I've dealt with this, and I agree
19:07
with you with Wisconsin. I think Wisconsin is going to be fabulous. Mordecai.
19:14
I'm fascina think how the Graham Harold offensive coordinator that it works out for
19:17
Purdue because it was very less than expected in West Virginia last year. I
19:25
didn't think it was good at all. I thought it was awful, I
19:29
mean, and so I am fascinated to see. You know, Harold had
19:33
a lot, you know, he was a popular guy, but they weren't
19:34
very good at USC when he was out there eater I mean, so I'm
19:38
interested to see how that all shakes how that all shakes out, So that
19:42
that's an interesting part of this. I agree with you. Purdue would probably
19:45
be my pick for the seller if not for the Northwestern debuccle and you know
19:52
here it is. So that's the thing is, I think most of these
19:55
teams that have got got both of them on their schedule get too win.
20:00
So when you start talking about in Nebraska guys like that that are in this
20:03
middling level, you know they've got a chain. You know, the Illinois
20:07
guys like that, they start playing both these teams and all of a sudden
20:11
boom, you got a chance get ball elible. If you want your non
20:15
conference, you need one more win. If you get both these, he
20:18
win your three nine conference. And when beat these two guys, you need
20:22
one more win to get bowl eligible. So and you mix in if you
20:26
had Indiana on the schedule, I ain't here in really good shape. So
20:30
when you're looking at Northwestern current book, I'm looking at its Northwestern under three
20:33
and a half is minus two hundred, which that's heavy juice, bro.
20:38
But at Rutgers game, first game, they're already laying seven, and I
20:42
mean Rutgers is laying seven, and that one they host UTEP, which you
20:48
know UTEP's gonna come with everything they got in that one they're at Duke,
20:51
which I think they're gonna be out coached, out played many Penn State.
20:55
They've got Howard coming in. Well, I know we're gonna get to Acco.
20:59
It's gonna be better. I don't know if their record's gonna be better.
21:02
That football team's gonna be better than it was last year. I mean,
21:04
they had a lot of close wins, but that's some really close losses
21:07
too, not a single one their losses more as course. So I think
21:11
they go to Poundtown in that game. I think they get killed it too.
21:14
Yeah. I think if you're looking, you're gonna have to look at
21:17
Northwestern each week to see what's going on up there. I think it's gonna
21:21
be a mess. Dude, It's gonna be an absolute mess. I mean,
21:23
the last time I followed a team that lost their coach like this was
21:27
the Baylor Bears when they fired Art Brows and they brought in Algrove to come
21:33
in and try to our gym Grove excuse me, to help them kind of
21:34
help out get through that, and they came out hot. Now, that
21:37
Baylor roster was in much better shape than the Northwestern roster was because people couldn't
21:42
be ejac off right in the middle of the summer like they're doing now.
21:47
And so this Northwestern roster is not good. It's coming off of two terrible
21:52
seasons where last year they only beat Nebraska. The year before they beat Rutgers
21:56
in Indiana State. It could be really rough for the Purple Cats. Those
22:03
dudes hadn't one in on us soul since Rutgers of twenty one, which was
22:12
in October. I mean, do you know how long man, that is?
22:17
Almost two years well that I went, and they may go this whole
22:21
year. I mean, I'm telling this team could be an utter disaster.
22:25
And you can't tell me there's not a section of that team that I don't
22:30
care what was going on. There's clearly guys that didn't like it. So
22:33
you've got a fraction of the team that didn't like the hazing, didn't like
22:37
what was going on, didn't like coaching staff. And then I guarantee you
22:41
you've got a section of the team that's pissed Fitz has gone. That team's
22:45
not gonna have a lot of unity. They're pissed at the guys that it
22:48
got out because it's blowing up their season. I just think this. I
22:53
think northwesterns of debacle on it's heavy juice, but man, this recipe for
23:00
disaster. Three favorite bets that I've got in this conference. I like Illinois
23:06
under six and a half wins minus one fifty. I like Indiana under three
23:11
and a half wins at plus one forty, and I like Iowa over eight
23:15
wins at minus one thirty five. Are the three lines that are probably my
23:19
favorite so far. Yeah, I told you, I think Ia is my
23:25
favorite. I need to get that place before that number, before that number
23:29
goes up. And then I told you I think I'm going with my nine
23:33
and a half. I think the game at West Virginia, I think they
23:37
win that ball game at home against West Virginia Delaware, They're at Illinois,
23:44
Iowa at home at Northwestern. It's this road schedule. I mean, they're
23:48
all manageable. They could win. I think all these games except Ohio stating,
23:53
look, depending on how the season's going and how good or bad this
23:59
team is, Marvin Harrison get hurt again for because look they're play they win
24:03
the Natty last year. If Harrison didn't get hurt against Georgia, they win
24:07
that ball game. I think we both agree on that. Hell, I
24:11
think anybody with eyes has got to agree on that until he got hurt.
24:15
So if he's not playing Ken, Fenn State win that game, you bet
24:18
you. I mean, there's just a I dislike this schedule. I like
24:22
who they get at home, like an Iowa game. If they were on
24:25
the road, I would think they lose that ball game. But I think
24:26
lay an Iowa home, that's a big win. So anyway, I like
24:30
Fenn State schedule. I think it's worth the nine and a half for me,
24:34
Scotty. Let's move over to the Big Twelve. The last year of
24:38
the Big Twelve with the two big names in it, Texas and Oklahoma obviously
24:42
will be moving on to the SEC next year. Interesting conference. I think
24:48
there is a tremendous amoun the toss ups in this conference. Texas Tech is
24:52
catching the most hype of any team if you follow him out of media Big
24:57
Twelve media days, they got to ton of h a lot of chess beating
25:00
going on over under win total for Texas Tech. I have looked and it
25:04
was seven and a half. Eight. Let me get two right now.
25:10
Yeah, still seven and a half for Texas Tech over seven and a half,
25:15
Texas Tech is plus one ten. The reason I bring that up is
25:19
it's real interesting because Texas Tech's catching a lot of hight. A lot of
25:22
people think they're dark horse chance to make a run. Now, keep in
25:26
mind, this same conference last year had TCU in it and their over underwind
25:32
total was six and a half and it was one of you and I's biggest
25:36
bets of the season. We thought TCU would be better with Sunny Dice coming
25:40
in, with Gillespie coming in and run the defense. We took them.
25:42
They ended up in the National Championship. Texas Tech their roster is much better
25:48
than it has been. If you go look at their roster, the amount
25:52
of three hundred pounders on their rosters more than they've ever had. They're right
25:56
up there with some of the top fifteen teams in the tree as far as
26:00
having a bigger roster for that standpoint. So I do think he's doing a
26:03
good job. But seven and a half wins maybe a reach. But where
26:07
my first bet that I've made in the Big twelve. As I took Texas
26:12
plus one and a half plus one oh five to win the conference. I
26:17
think when you look at Texas schedule. I think it's extremely manageable for what
26:21
they've got. I like the fact that what you're seeing out of Texas.
26:25
I'm a Sark fan. Are you a Sark fan? I do like Sark,
26:33
you know, and I think they're doing a good job. Texas gott
26:37
to quit losing ball games at the end of the year. About I'll tell
26:41
you what Texas can't be. They can't fire their coach this year. I
26:45
think that if they go eight and four, I think I gotta let Sark
26:49
keep growing this this this program. If they go eight and four, I
26:52
think they fire Sark. I think they will two because they're Texas and they
26:56
can't help but do it. But I stupid if they do it. I
27:02
really do think that's a poor decision. If the long Horns do that,
27:07
they have got to let a coach stick with it. And I do Lighthart,
27:12
you know, I was as this is. I am glad State did
27:17
not hire him the year before he went to Texas, just because I thought
27:19
that I didn't think that was a good A good fit. Man off the
27:22
sc job will drive you to drink. I can't imagine what the Mississippi State
27:26
job would do. And look at the better job for him where he is.
27:30
I just think the I think Texas doesn't understand that some of their problems
27:38
aren't just on the football fit. You know, there's a culture problem there.
27:44
And I don't mean in the program, I mean at that campus.
27:48
And it's pretty clear because they keep churning through coaches that are have got great
27:53
resumes and have done good jobs other places, and they can get it done.
27:57
And I know there's the art can't win but eight games, he's seven
28:00
and five, eight and four, Sart or whatever it is, going all
28:03
the way back to Washington. But I also think some of this Texas has
28:08
got they got to bear through. I mean it. It is like that
28:14
cussin that Davis gave on that bus from the defensive lineman. Sark's first year
28:18
needed to happen. They are soft, and they had some soft guys,
28:22
and last year they showed signs of coming through that. Then they got the
28:26
injury bug late in the year and they couldn't finish and they lost some games
28:30
they shouldn't have. So I do like Sark, but I do think they're
28:34
gonna win this league because I don't know how in the world if you were
28:37
stays healthy. Man, that kid's put in the work. That guy's transformed
28:41
his body, and he looks like he's committed. The kids talented, you
28:47
know, I think he's got a lot to prove. That roster's really talented.
28:51
So I think it's going to be interesting. Man. You look at
28:52
that offensive roster. Man, they got talent everywhere. I mean, it
28:56
is stick of I mean, it's as good as anybody you know. Now,
29:00
they got some places on defense. I think I've got question mark.
29:04
They say one of the strengths of the team is a defensive lineman. Do
29:07
you look at some of those guys are gonna be starting some of the older
29:11
guys that's the worst, that's the lowest rated guys and signing classes coming out
29:15
of anywhere on this team, and you compare it to the upper end Powered
29:18
five schools, they're name close where some of those guys were rated. So
29:22
I know they think it's it's gonna be good. I'll be interested to see
29:26
how that holds up, because at the end of the day, offensive line
29:29
and the defensive line determines are you a really really good football team throughout the
29:33
year. So two bets I have on Texas currently is I took Texas minus
29:37
four against Oklahoma in Game of the Year lines, I took Texas plus one
29:41
oh five to win the conference. I mean, this is a Texas team
29:45
last year that was banged up with yours, had some issues, had some
29:51
injuries, they lost the kids that the kid the transferred it from Wyowen's big
29:55
receiver. I think they're gonna be much better. Every loss Texas had last
29:59
year, including the bull game against Washington, were all one score games.
30:02
They lost five one score games last season, and so I think this team
30:07
right now I could definitely put themselves in the Big Twelve Championship. I like
30:11
it to take it in the Big Twelve Championship at plus you can still get
30:17
it at either minus one oh five or plus one oh five, whereas the
30:21
alternative is trying to bet Texas is over under win totals nine and a half
30:25
in your land between minus one thirty and minus one forty five. I think
30:29
the value there is to bet Texas to win the conference. And That's where
30:33
I'm gonna go with it. Next one, I want to go to Scottie.
30:37
Let's stay in the Red River Shootout. I'm going to Oklahoma. I
30:41
took Oklahoma over nine and a half wins, which almost sounds counterintuitive based on
30:45
how it's going. I got Oklahoma minus one ten at over nine and a
30:49
half wins. This is a team that's gonna have to have a major bounce
30:53
bake. This team lost to Texas Tech West Virginia Baylor, Texas TCU in
30:59
Kansas State last year. Dylan Gabriel was hurt for a good part of the
31:02
season, but more importantly, the defense was fucking terrible under Britain Vinables,
31:07
and I think their roster's pretty good now. Granted you're gonna have a lot
31:12
of no names. I think you're gonna have to. I mean, most
31:15
people can't name more than two receivers on this team. You got Faruke and
31:19
the Stoops Kid, and the Stoops kid Frankly wouldn't be starting anywhere if he
31:23
wasn't in Oklahoma. But I think this rosters better. I like what they've
31:27
done in the trench. I think their offensive line's improved with the transfers that
31:32
have come in there. The defensive line, I think is improved. I
31:36
also think Vinables was interesting at Big twelve media days. He was talking a
31:40
little smack, giving Dion some hack given some invinables does not strike me as
31:45
a guy that likes to run his mouth, and I think he may think
31:48
he's onto something here at the University of Oklahoma. I think on their way
31:52
out the door, if I'm gonna bet Oklahoma over nine and a half,
31:55
I would bet it up to one twenty. I think this is a team
31:59
that's got a great show. I have a good season because their their schedule.
32:02
His marshmallow soft when you look at it. They've got Arkansas S and
32:07
you at home. SMU might be interesting, but I doubt it. At
32:09
Tulsa at sinc Iowa State, who's gonna be really bad? UM Texas at
32:15
a neutral UCF comes to Norman at Kansas at Oklahoma State, West Virginia BYU
32:22
and TCU. It's hard for me to find three losses in that in that
32:27
schedule right there, especially if you can get Dylan Gabriel to stay healthy.
32:30
But last year when he was hurt, they didn't really have a good alternative
32:34
to backup. This year, they've got Jackson Arnold in there. If Jackson
32:37
Arnold gets on the field and he gets this thing rolling, I don't know
32:42
that we'll see dealing Gabriel again, because that kid, I think is gonna
32:45
be legit. Yeah, I like Oklahoma over nine and a half. Yeah,
32:51
I'm not. I'm not gonna go there. I think Gabriel's legit.
32:53
I mean, look, they last year they put up in the in the
32:58
eleven games he started, they put up over five hundred yards offense and scored
33:01
thirty seven points the two games he did in two seventy five. He's an
33:07
athlete, he can run, he gets it in his face. That's a
33:10
bit hig difference. I think Gabriel is a good player, man with you.
33:15
What I like the most about this team is the schedule. I do
33:20
think it sets up well for him. They just kind of showed me they
33:23
were so bad on defense last year. But I don't know if there's enough
33:30
teams on this schedule that can capitalize on it. I mean, I really
33:32
don't. And I think they get I think they. I mean you look,
33:37
I mean two which say did no favors to the school stepping up,
33:42
which we'll get up get into it in a minute. But I mean you
33:45
look at last year and how many teams on this schedule weren't Power five.
33:51
And I'm gonna talk about this again with with Oklahoma State, because it's the
33:55
same thing. But on this schedule, teams that were non Power five teams
34:01
last year Arkansas State, SMU, Tulsa, Cincinnati. You see if BYU
34:12
and how many is that six? That's how you put up a good record
34:16
right there. You start playing teams that just simply and this is not a
34:22
shot at those programs. They don't have the talent Power five guys. Do
34:24
you catch I say this all the time about Mississippi State. You go look
34:30
at Missisippi State. They finished in the top twenty in recruiting every year.
34:32
It doesn't make it down that they would have been one of the five best
34:36
teams in the Big ten. They'll play in the Big ten. They finished
34:40
tenth in the SEC every year. That's who they play every week. The
34:44
same thing is now true for all these teams coming in. They don't recruit
34:47
on the same level that these kids do. And look, that goes for
34:52
Power five, that goes for transfers too. These big schools get who they
34:55
want in the transfer portal too. I mean it's the same thing. There's
35:00
recruiting a kid. I mean that's it's the same thing. So when I'm
35:02
talking about recruiting. I'm talking about portal as well. It's a different world
35:07
for these guys and a different roster. They're no longer playing AAC schedules.
35:10
They're no longer playing independent schedules. It's a different gig. When they start
35:16
rolling in and playing Texas and Oklahoma back to back. Oh, and then
35:21
they got to go to Texas Tech, you know that deal starts adding up
35:24
on you. They got to play Baylor. These teams are all teams that
35:28
are better and more talented than they are. I like Oklahoma schedule here.
35:31
I don't know if they get it all the way to nine. They certain
35:35
I mean all the way ten, but they certainly could. I think everybody
35:38
has got Texas and Oklahoma marked as the top two teams in this league.
35:43
And let me tell you that's the worst possible thing that can happen to the
35:46
Big to the Big twelve. They do not need these two teams to play
35:51
in the championship game and then sail off to the SEC. Well, I
35:54
think they may see it. We'll see um looking at some other teams in
36:00
the Big Twelve. Kansas State, a team that won the Big Twelve last
36:02
year, This is an interesting squad to me. Uh, they over underwent
36:08
love Chris. I love Chris. I like Will Howard the quarterback. To
36:13
be honest with you, um you know they run. They started with Adrian
36:16
Martinez last season, ended up benching him as he got nicked up throughout the
36:22
season. Brought in Will Howard. He's had great numbers this kid has played
36:25
in the last three years that he's been there. Obviously took Kansas State to
36:30
the Big Twelve Championship Game where they won that before they rolled into the bowl
36:35
game and played a super pissed off Alabama and just got absolutely crushed in that
36:38
one. But this Kansas State team's interesting over underwin totals at eight uh and
36:45
even money. I don't think this is a bad buy either. Southeast Missouri
36:49
Troy Miszoo that's think is getting in the Big twelve Championship over Oklahoma. I
36:55
will say, you didn't mean to cut you off. No, no,
36:58
you're good. I think their schedules set kind of interestingly. Southeast Missouri Troy.
37:01
I don't think they'll pose much of a problem there. Then they have
37:04
at Missoo, which could be an interesting game because I think Missoo's probably better
37:07
than a lot of people think they got uc up at home. They gotta
37:10
buy at Oak State, at Tech, TCU, Houston, Texas, Baylor,
37:15
Kansas and Iowa State. It's hard to bet against Kansas State. I
37:21
mean we talked about this other than when Ron Prince was at Kansas State.
37:23
Kansas State has been one of the biggest bets that we've played since we started
37:28
this podcast thirteen years ago. They're consistent, this team works hard. I
37:31
think Cleman has a great understanding of what he has in the offense. The
37:36
biggest thing to me is is they lose Deuce Fallen and they did bring in
37:40
a transfer portal guy to help them with this one, but I don't know
37:45
that you can replace Deuce. Vaughan rout the bat. I like well Howard
37:49
a Ton, But I think eight wins at even money, I think is
37:53
a pretty good bet because then you get your set a chance to hedge out
37:58
towards the end if you think you're in a spot. But I think Kansas
38:01
stated eight wins is a good spot. Yeah. Their scheduled look, they
38:07
miss out on some of the weird teams in the league, so I think
38:10
that's where their difficulty is. But this was by far the most physical team
38:15
in the Big twelve last year. It was not clubs. They got their
38:17
top eight offensive linemen back. Yep. Well, you think they're just they
38:22
forgot how to be physical. They're gonna come out and punt people in the
38:25
mouth again. And I just and they look. I don't think their defense
38:30
will be quite as good. Kind of gets the most out of those guys.
38:32
He's a gritty, hard nosed guy. I really like this offense.
38:36
I think they're gonna be really, really physical. How do you get a
38:38
physical defense as you got a physical offensive line and you can pound on each
38:42
other when you put the pads on. And I think they're gonna be really
38:45
good. I think they'll be physical. I think they're gonna surprise some people.
38:47
Again, I agree with you. You can get it eight even money.
38:51
That's a good bet. Scott's up with the other team for Kansas,
38:53
Lance Leopold in the Kansas Jayhawks. This is a fun team. Over under
39:00
on. This team is somewhere between five and a half and six. You
39:04
can fight a five and a half and you can lay some juice on this
39:07
at minus one sixty five. Kansas is very interesting to me. You know,
39:12
they had some games last year They've played basically without a quarterback and had
39:15
to roll through and do what they could. But Leopold has done a great
39:19
job. They returned more starters than any team in Division one football this year.
39:22
Kansas does now. Granted, their defense last year was hell atrocious and
39:28
they gave up points in bunches. I don't even have the numbers in front
39:30
of you, but I can tell you they gave up over thirty five points
39:34
a game, and they're gonna have to put those numbers up. I'm not
39:37
leaning on Kansas to get over six. I'm gonna be cheering for them.
39:40
But what I like about this Kansas team, I think there's gonna be a
39:44
lot of over under totals in this one, and I'm gonna be betting on
39:46
the over in some Kansas games in this one, agreed. I think that's
39:50
where the value on this team is is in the over under. I mean,
39:53
look, man, it's still I mean they're still Kansas. I mean
39:57
they still got a I mean, look how I said I think they got
39:59
a chance when we were talking about Illinois to win this game. I still
40:02
think they do. Because anybody think that's a logging gonna be surprised Illinois goes
40:06
on the one road and wins this ball game. Hack note. So I
40:08
mean it's a you know, that's a that's a tough one. They go
40:13
to Nevada, Um, you know, then then they start sinking into the
40:16
schedule. Um. And I just think some of the games that they would
40:21
have a chance to win, they're playing on the road. Um. The
40:24
bottom line is this job is one of the most difficult jobs in the country.
40:31
And at any time that you can get near six wins, you've done
40:37
a great Let's take them to score some points. Let's stay away from this
40:43
over under total. Yeah, any other win totals you like in this conference.
40:47
I do not like Baylor. I think TCU's got some regression. They're
40:51
over run to win totals at seven and a half. I'm kind of gonna
40:53
wait and see point because they've got a lot of new moving parts on that
40:57
team. Uh. And so I haven't quite bought into that one up.
41:01
Do same thing on my six that I said before they get a Oklahoma State.
41:09
I like their I like their schedule. Um, you know, playing
41:14
the sixth the six non Power five teams again gives you a chance to get
41:19
there. I mean, look, this is this is this is the Central
41:22
Arkansas, South Alabama, Cincinnati. You see a Houston and byu hell,
41:30
you're at over underwent total if you beat a bunch of guys who are non
41:34
power five essentially, So I think there's some value in this line time.
41:40
Everybody's asleep on gonna he figures out a way to do it. I'm interesting
41:45
how Bubba plays in the offense, stunted Spencer Sanders. I think he just
41:53
felt like, you know, this wasn't a good fit for producing, you
41:57
know, quarterbacks. So I'm interested to see what Homan does coming over from
42:01
Michigan, to see how he excels. But at the end of the day,
42:06
I just like this schedule. I think there's value in it. To
42:08
go over six wins could get there. Texas Tech, you got an opinion
42:14
on them at seven and a half. I think they're gonna be better.
42:19
But I agree with you, I'm not a schedule's tough, so it'll be
42:22
interesting to see how they shake out. They're fun, though, man.
42:25
Everybody you talked to, and I know you know a few high school coaches
42:30
in Texas, Man, they all love McGuire. I mean love him and
42:34
just think he's got the deal churning. I think he's getting I think he's
42:37
gonna keep getting guys that are off the grid, and that really is a
42:45
little prograb good. You gotta have some help funding those guys that are off
42:50
the grid. And when high school coaches love you because you're an old high
42:52
school coach. Look, Art Rowse was doing it. He's going to getting
42:55
dudes nobody's heard of. And boom. It was because all these other Texas
43:00
coaches were calling, hey, man, and he's son. This guy,
43:01
he's fast, he can run. They'd get a guy on campus are like,
43:05
Hi, nobody miss that guy's past his lightning. You know it's because
43:07
you know he's from some middle of nowhere school in Texas and high school coach
43:12
called him. And allegedly McGuire is getting a lot of that. It's gonna
43:15
be interesting to see how they continue to progress. So I think it's a
43:20
great story watching a guy like that. So you know, I hope he
43:23
gets right on him. Yeah, Texas tough job. It's a tough job.
43:30
And you know it's hard to look at a great home of badge because
43:35
it will get rowdy and rock us out there, but it's still a really
43:38
tough job, hard to hard to get tough bunch guys that aren't from West
43:43
Texas in there because it's a long way from home only. But I have
43:46
currently on Texas Tech is I have Texas Tech minus thirteen and a half out
43:52
Wyoming week one. I don't have a lot of faith in Wyoming this season.
43:57
They weren't great last year, and I think Texas Tech goes up there
44:00
and takes care of business. They've got Oregon on deck the week after.
44:05
If Tech somehow can get to the first three weeks of their season three and
44:08
Ozero, it's gonna be real interesting because after that, I think their schedule
44:14
gets very manageable. At West Virginia, who I think is going to be
44:19
terrible, I think not very good. I agree with you. I think
44:22
Neil Brown's done, Dana Hologram and at Houston has to come up there,
44:28
and these teams have played each other quite a bit recently. Houston I've got
44:31
in a little bit upgraded from last year, but I'm still not sure they're
44:36
gonna be very good. Baylor to me is a six and six team at
44:38
best. A lot of people think Baylor can go over the number. I'm
44:42
not seeing it. I don't like Blake shaping at all. I think at
44:45
Kansas State at BYUTCU, Kansas UC up in Texas so tech schedule, if
44:51
you know all you need to know about Texas Tech Week two, Mark Well,
44:57
I will be there. They get Oregon at home in a rowdy environment.
45:02
I mean that man, Tech is gonna be zoosed up for that game.
45:07
And you know, let's face it, Bownicks ain't been real damn good
45:10
on the road in rough environments throughout his career. So let's you know,
45:15
let's see what he gets in two down there as a you know, finally
45:19
as a as a senior, and see what he does. They win that
45:22
ball game, and who, man, the hype wagon will really get role,
45:28
I mean really get role. It could be true. Yeah, but
45:30
I agree with you, it'd be interesting to see what bow Nicks does on
45:34
the road because he was terrible at USC. I mean, excuse me,
45:37
an Auburn on the road. And of course last year they got ran by
45:40
Georgia at that neutral got be by Washington by three. Oregon State beat him
45:46
by four. I mean Oregon had a great season. Oregan's got one of
45:50
the top fifteen rosters in the country in my personal opinion, but getting bow
45:54
Nicks on the road, this will probably the roughest road game he will have
45:58
had to have played since he was in the SEC. It's a night game
46:01
in Love. It Saturday night, second week of the season. It's sold
46:06
out. It's gonna be rocking in there. It'll be really interesting to see
46:09
if we get good bow Nicks that we saw most of last year at Oregon,
46:14
or we get bad bow Nicks on the road Auburn. Because when he
46:16
was at Auburn his last year, you and I was almost a blind bet.
46:21
If bow Knicks was on the road, we were going the other way.
46:24
Yeah, it really was. So I think that's gonna be a fascinating
46:28
game for the Red Raiders. They get grilled at home, and I think
46:34
our concerns are warranted. I think that is, you know, I think
46:37
it just you know, I get messed up close game, they win or
46:40
lose either way, then hey man, you know, the tech could be
46:45
as good as people think they are. There are a lot of teams in
46:49
this in this league that are in the middle. It feels like a really
46:52
middle heavy or like a fifty year old dude. They got a lot of
46:55
weight around the belt line. There's just a couple of teams up top that
47:00
are really good, that are not very good at the bottom, and then
47:07
there's a lot in the middle that can go either way. I mean,
47:09
candidly, Marcher, you're gonna be surprised if you see it has got a
47:15
way to win seven eight games in this league. I'm not. I'm also
47:19
not gonna be suned if they go five and seven. I will I would
47:22
go five and seven more than I wouldn see him go seven and five.
47:28
Another one I like to go unders by U. Um, I don't like
47:31
by U at all. I think BYU comes out high and they win two
47:35
and oh they go Sam Houston State South Utah. Then they've got at Archy
47:40
at Kansas since at TCU, Texas Tech at Texas at West Virginia. Do
47:46
you know how long of a trip it's gonna be from Provo, Utah to
47:51
Morgantown, West Virginia. I mean, dude, you are literally flying across
47:55
the country in this game. Um YEA. So I don't like BYU at
48:00
all. This season under five and a half would not surprise me at all.
48:04
I do not think this team goes bowling. If you look at their
48:07
roster, their composite rosters got like ranked sixty ninth in the country. They're
48:13
ranked at one of the lowest recruiting schools in the country. Obviously, they've
48:15
got a lot of kids that go on missions. But the other thing that
48:19
makes me not like them more is Keaton Slovs is the quarterback there, and
48:23
that guy could make it at USC, didn't do well at pitt and somehow
48:28
he's at BYU and his sixty year. The only person that's more mind boggling
48:32
to him than him is JT. Daniels, who's the starting quarterback for Rice
48:37
this season. I mean literally, the USC locker room is all over the
48:42
country at this point, Yeah, all over the country. I mark one
48:45
thing I want to point out, and he gets. I know, I
48:47
feel like I'm beating a dead horse. But I can't. I can't say
48:52
this enough for everybody's listing and looking at schedules and betting these teams are going
48:54
to struggle with the upgrade and talent. It is different when you're rolling off
49:00
USF and then you play Baylor and you win and double over time and then
49:06
you play another Power five team right behind it last year and get boat raced
49:10
forty one twenty by Oregon. They do the exact same thing. Playing this
49:17
game. Arkansas pounds them and that ball game was not a fifty two thirty
49:24
five game. Arkansas beat the dog out of them. They scored some points
49:28
leaked to make that ball game look better than it was. They got a
49:31
hammer in that ball game. They're doing that every week now, and there's
49:37
no room to breathe. And that fair death your roster comes in is it's
49:44
not just the twenty two you roll out there, it is the forty four
49:49
or even the fifty you got to play with every week. And they just
49:52
these teams simply do not have the depth yet to compete. And I can't
49:58
say enough. Keep that in mind when you're betting on these guys this year.
50:01
Yeah, I agree with you. I mean, look at UCF,
50:05
they had the best recruiting class they have had ever this season. That recruiting
50:09
class ranked ninth in the Big Twelve of what they would have had ninth.
50:15
And to exactly, it's just like it's like I say about Missisiptate all the
50:22
time, but he's laying you know, you finished last in the SEC West
50:29
every year, I guess where you're gonna finish. Here's the bottom. That's
50:31
the deal. And it's the same thing with with with those guys this year.
50:36
The other thing that I think you got to look at with a lot
50:37
of these teams is we talk about this a lot, but man, these
50:42
these teams making the jump when they've got to when they've got to play a
50:46
lot of ball games in a row, I think it's really gonna hurt them
50:51
with the with the upgrade and talent. And I think, I mean,
50:54
you look, most of these teams that are making the jump, Houston,
51:00
Cincinnati or both, October seventh is their off day. Same thing for Byu.
51:06
I mean, man, you're gonna have a lot of all games in
51:09
October and November with no off you start these guys start playing this kind of
51:14
talent six and seven weeks and they're gonna be getting gas ten and I just
51:19
think there's gonna be a chance to come November to make some money. No,
51:22
I would agree with you, Scotty. That's the Big ten, that's
51:27
the Big twelve. We've got some plays, we'll put them out there.
51:30
We'll put those all in the play notes give us a review, give us
51:31
the thumbs up, give us the thumbs down, tell us what's going on.
51:36
We're trying to get you through these best. We can put these podcasts
51:38
together in less than an hour, so you can enjoy these. If you
51:42
got comments on your team, hit us up on Twitter, leave them in
51:45
the notes. We'd love to hear from you. I think both these conferences
51:49
are gonna be a lot of fun. I think it's gonna be a lot
51:51
of fun and different ways. Next week, Scotty, we'll knock down the
51:54
ACC and we'll knock down the Pack twelve, and then we'll dive into the
51:59
group of five. We are only a few weeks away from Week zero and
52:04
getting college football back market. You go, Los, I think that I
52:13
think that league may be a lot of fun this year. I think there
52:16
are some I think there's some really good teams at the top of that league.
52:20
I think from each other ug yes during for week I'm just I ain't
52:28
that league back twelve is gonna be fun. I'm looking forward to it as
52:32
much as you are. It's gonna be a good time. That being said,
52:35
folks, when we signing off, we'll talk to you next week.
52:37
Give us some ratings. We look forward to hearing from you. Talk to
52:39
you soon.