Latest / Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News / Elon Musk says jobs will be optional in 10-20 years. Is he right?

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Elon Musk says jobs will be optional in 10-20 years. Is he right? · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

• 0:11
  You're listening to the Hidden Lightness on America Out Loud Talk Radio.
• 0:15
  I'm your host, Jimmy Hinton.
• 0:17
  Recently, Elon Musk kind of doubled down on this idea that there's going to be universal basic income known as UBI.
• 0:28
  And he's he his claim is that AI is going to be so productive and produce so much money in the United States that work is going to be optional, that people will only have to work if they choose to work.
• 0:45
  In other words, there won't be a need for people to work.
• 0:49
  And that's kind of across the board.
• 0:51
  He says that AI is going to take up more jobs than uh what people realize.
• 0:57
  And it's going to replace the workforce as we know it.
• 1:00
  Now there's no doubt that AI is changing the landscape of America and the world, really.
• 1:08
  AI is already integrated into every aspect of our lives, whether we know it or not.
• 1:15
  It's integrated into our banking systems, it's integrated into uh the internet, it's integrated into your smartphones, it's everywhere.
• 1:27
  And if you notice, you get uh even in your email, you get AI summaries of emails, and you get AI assistance to help write emails and check grammar and things like that.
• 1:38
  It's being integrated into every aspect of our lives.
• 1:43
  I uh recently did a show on AI and the the worry of what that's going to look like for churches.
• 1:52
  AI integration into churches and uh sermon prep and uh even whether it's going to replace preachers or not, and you know, it it really is changing the landscape of everything.
• 2:09
  And so the question is is Elon Musk right and what does that look like?
• 2:16
  You know, universal income, universal basic income, UBI.
• 2:21
  I'll explain a little bit about what that is.
• 2:24
  Um, but will there be a universal basic income for everybody within the next 10 years, like Elon Musk claims?
• 2:33
  Now he said a lot of wacky things.
• 2:35
  Uh he believes that we're going to colonize Mars before too long, you know, within his lifetime.
• 2:42
  Uh he plans to die on Mars and uh to live there for for several years before he passes away from old age.
• 2:53
  So he has some very, very lofty ideas, but the question is is he a madman, or is there something to some of his great genius?
• 3:04
  Now there's no denying that Elon Musk is intellectually just super smart.
• 3:10
  He is the richest man on planet Earth, and uh I think he's gonna remain in that top spot probably forever.
• 3:20
  So very clearly a smart man, but he's also erratic.
• 3:26
  We saw that with uh with Doge and uh his exit from the White House, and then he went on this really bizarre uh Twitter fight with President Trump, and it just it looked really childish and very strange.
• 3:42
  So he's he's a genius.
• 3:44
  There's no doubt about that.
• 3:46
  100% he's a genius.
• 3:49
  Uh very, very, very good at structuring his businesses to be successful.
• 3:55
  No doubt about that.
• 3:58
  So he knows what he's talking about, and I think when he says something, we at least need to pay attention because a lot of times he makes predictions and and those predictions are very true, but then he makes other predictions and and you just kind of scratch your head, and you're like, no, this isn't gonna happen.
• 4:20
  Uh yeah, I'll give you an example.
• 4:22
  He routinely predicted that Tesla was going to roll out these vehicles and like their semis, it was gonna it was gonna roll out years before it actually did, and it was just gonna be the best thing in the world, and he didn't say that uh so much as a marketing ploy, but I think he genuinely believed it.
• 4:45
  And the semi-trucks were going to take over, the electric semi-trucks were gonna take over at the entire trucking industry.
• 4:50
  Well, I was in that industry for for decades, and uh I have a great interest in the transportation industry.
• 5:00
  I I absolutely love it, it's in my blood.
• 5:02
  I uh, you know, I I have a love-hate relationship with the trans uh transportation industry, and anybody who drives truck knows what I'm talking about.
• 5:12
  Uh it gets in your blood, you you love to drive, you love to travel, you love heavy machinery.
• 5:18
  Operating an 80,000-pound vehicle is just uh it's it's pretty cool.
• 5:22
  It takes incredible skill, and uh at the same time you hate the regulations and the regulations are just constantly changing and and getting worse and worse and worse and getting harder for the drivers.
• 5:36
  So it's it's an interesting industry, and when Musk made that claim, I paid attention because I was like, you know, there's there's no way it can't happen.
• 5:46
  There's just not there's not the technology to make that happen.
• 5:50
  And well, sure enough, the Tesla semis took forever to roll out, and then you start seeing videos of them being towed, and they're breaking down.
• 6:02
  They're uh I don't know if it's an issue of the batteries dying or or an actual mechanical breakdown, but uh I just don't see it.
• 6:12
  I still don't see it.
• 6:13
  I don't think the batteries are nearly efficient enough.
• 6:16
  I think there are greater, much greater alternatives.
• 6:21
  Um there's uh a logging company up in Canada that uh he makes uh it's really similar to what uh what train engines are, you know.
• 6:33
  It's like the DC motors that are fueled by a diesel engine.
• 6:38
  So you have these powerful, powerful DC battery operated uh engines, but they're fueled by a diesel engine, which is using a fraction of of the diesel that a traditional diesel would use.
• 6:52
  And so this trucking company, this logging company up in up in Canada, the guy builds all of his own trucks, and it's the Edison trucks, and if you haven't looked it up, it's really fascinating.
• 7:03
  But this guy also is a genius, uh, just a very, very bright, intelligent guy, and he talks about how it's just the infrastructure is not here and it never will be to support fully electric trucks, and uh he does all the calculations and uh a lot of science goes into that, but he says the Edison trucks will uh they'll be around forever, and this technology's been around for a really long time, so it's not new technology, but he's harnessing this technology, and he's building these really rugged electric, semi-electric trucks that are just absolutely incredible.
• 7:46
  I mean, they're they're awesome, and he's got a whole fleet of them, and it's really incredible.
• 7:51
  So, you know, the the the question is will universal basic income UBI will that be the thing here in America.
• 8:01
  Well, you might be surprised to know that we're actually trying it out, we're experimenting with UBI.
• 8:08
  There are a hundred US cities where we've tried or are actively trying UBI, universal basic income.
• 8:16
  They're experimenting with this all over the world.
• 8:19
  Finland tried it for um what a year solid with 2,000 people, 2,000 subjects.
• 8:28
  Uh that was from 2017 to 18, and now they're doing kind of micro experiments with UBI.
• 8:37
  And South Korea tried it.
• 8:40
  Um Kenya.
• 8:43
  So it there are experiments all over the place, and we'll look at some of the findings of of those experiments, but I think it's really fascinating.
• 8:51
  And by the way, those experiments are the the experiments are privately funded, at least here in the United States.
• 8:57
  So it's private donors who big businesses give a pretty large amount of money, and they basically fund these experiments to to do a trial and error and gather all kinds of data to see if it could actually work.
• 9:17
  So it's definitely an interesting idea.
• 9:20
  And I don't know, uh, you know, uh I'll I'll talk about whether I'm pro or con towards the end of the show.
• 9:30
  Right now, that's not the point.
• 9:31
  Right now, the point is, is it possible?
• 9:34
  Can it happen?
• 9:36
  And specifically, can it happen within Elon Musk's 10 year time frame?
• 9:43
  I he's pretty confident about it.
• 9:46
  And he doesn't say that this can happen, he says it will happen.
• 9:52
  So that's kind of scary if you think about that.
• 9:55
  If this is true, and this is if in all capitals,
• 10:00
  If this is true, that means that every single living breathing person here in the United States will be receiving a universal basic income.
• 10:13
  Everybody.
• 10:14
  And there's a difference between UBI and guaranteed basic income, GBI, I think is what it's called.
• 10:24
  Guaranteed basic income means that you're guaranteed a certain amount, but there are conditions.
• 10:31
  So you have to actively be looking for employment and there's a certain age requirement.
• 10:37
  There are certain conditions that come with it.
• 10:39
  With UBI, which is what Elon Musk is proposing, there are zero conditions.
• 10:46
  There are no conditions.
• 10:48
  And I want you to think about the implications of this for a second before we judge whether it's right, wrong, or indifferent.
• 10:55
  I want to talk about the vulnerable people in the United States and really across the world.
• 11:01
  But we have a lot of vulnerable people.
• 11:03
  Think about people on disability.
• 11:05
  Now I know personally know a very good friend of mine.
• 11:10
  He's he's actually homeless.
• 11:12
  And he he's struggling.
• 11:18
  His wife recently died.
• 11:22
  She got uh she got cancer and passed away.
• 11:26
  And he's literally living by himself, severely disabled.
• 11:31
  And he's struggling.
• 11:35
  He's on disability.
• 11:37
  I know what his checks are, he tells me.
• 11:40
  And I sit back and I think that it's impossible.
• 11:44
  It's literally impossible for somebody to live on the disability that's handed out.
• 11:50
  It's it's impossible.
• 11:52
  It's not that it's difficult, it's not that they're just gonna have a hard time.
• 11:56
  It is impossible.
• 12:00
  It's not keeping up with inflation at all.
• 12:04
  It's impossible.
• 12:06
  And I feel absolutely horrible for him.
• 12:10
  You know, I I help him out the to the best of my ability.
• 12:14
  And I and I do so happily.
• 12:17
  And it's just it's it's a struggle.
• 12:20
  There are a lot of people in that position that are disabled.
• 12:24
  Or you have grandparents who are taking care of children.
• 12:29
  My daughter just last night went and visited a friend whose parent passed away.
• 12:38
  And I don't know what the situation is, but uh, I I know it's not the greatest, but my best guess is that grandma's gonna be taking in a whole mess of kids right now, and maybe even permanently.
• 12:54
  And this is happening all over the United States.
• 12:57
  These are a vulnerable, uh, a vulnerable group.
• 13:02
  You have elderly people who are often on a fixed income, and they're taking care of kids full time.
• 13:09
  I don't know if any of you have ever taken care of kids, but it ain't cheap.
• 13:13
  It is not cheap.
• 13:16
  All the running around that you do, the extra gas that you burn, uh, if if you're involved in any capacity with your children, which uh prayerfully you are, you realize that you go and you visit your kids uh tonight.
• 13:31
  We're going to a concert.
• 13:33
  We're gonna go to a concert for uh for my daughter, and uh, and we do so happily.
• 13:41
  Sports.
• 13:43
  Kids want to play sports, you're not you're not gonna tell them no.
• 13:47
  You're gonna try to make ends meet, and you're gonna try to make it happen, you know, within reason.
• 13:54
  And on and on it goes.
• 13:56
  We have piano lessons for for my daughter.
• 13:58
  We do that very happily.
• 14:01
  Uh, she's an incredible pianist.
• 14:03
  So on and on and on, you get the point.
• 14:06
  It's very costly to take care of kids, and you have single parents who are taking care of kids, and you look at what child care costs, it is absolutely atrocious what it costs for child care.
• 14:20
  My wife is the director at a child care center.
• 14:23
  I know what it costs here in rural Pennsylvania, out in the middle of nowhere, it's expensive.
• 14:29
  You get into the cities, it is absolutely over the top expensive to where it's not even worth working.
• 14:38
  I mean, you're you're literally working four days out of five to pay for child care.
• 14:46
  And that's not an exaggeration.
• 14:48
  I know here it's um easily for two kids over a thousand dollars, and that's cheap.
• 14:57
  I've looked around at different places, that's cheap.
• 15:00
  So the idea of of vulnerable people being taken care of, I think is on on the minds of all of us.
• 15:08
  Look at what the the uh the snap benefits that stopped.
• 15:12
  Look at what that did for 42 million Americans.
• 15:15
  I witnessed it myself.
• 15:16
  I told the story of the woman in front of me who was trying to build for Thanksgiving, and she pulled her card out and didn't know it had been disabled.
• 15:27
  So, you know, she was embarrassed, she broke down crying.
• 15:31
  She she was uh very clearly physically disabled.
• 15:37
  She cannot work, and it's not that she doesn't want to work, she physically cannot work.
• 15:44
  She was elderly.
• 15:46
  There are a lot of people here who are in vulnerable situations, both young and old.
• 15:55
  And and we have to ask ourselves honestly, what are we doing about it?
• 16:01
  You know, I don't see a whole lot of people stepping up right now.
• 16:04
  Now, I do share stories all the time where sporadically we have people helping out, and that's fantastic.
• 16:11
  You know, we have the GoFundMe's, and we have churches that step in and they do these big drives, but that's sporadic.
• 16:18
  That's not a routine regular care for people who are the most vulnerable among us.
• 16:25
  People living in poverty.
• 16:27
  And the amount of stress that that puts on people.
• 16:31
  If you've ever been around people for an extended period of time who are living in poverty, you know exactly what I'm talking about.
• 16:38
  It's very, very stressful.
• 16:41
  It's tough.
• 16:43
  So we'll answer some of these questions.
• 16:45
  We'll describe UBI a little bit more after the break.
• 16:47
  We are coming up on a break here.
• 16:49
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• 19:21
  Elon Musk made a claim that we're going to be on universal basic income, and work is going to be optional within the next 10 years.
• 19:31
  I think he said something like five to 10 years, which, if you think about that, that's uh that's a little bit frightening.
• 19:39
  And so the question is is it possible?
• 19:41
  What is UBI?
• 19:42
  What is universal basic income?
• 19:44
  And is this possible?
• 19:47
  Will AI actually take off?
• 19:50
  And will it take over so many jobs that it produces so much income?
• 19:55
  And that's his claim.
• 19:56
  It's going to produce so much GDP that.
• 20:00
  It's uh people are not going to have to work.
• 20:02
  Work is going to be optional.
• 20:04
  If you want to work, great, but you don't have to.
• 20:07
  It's going to be optional.
• 20:09
  And that's assuming a pretty high rate of income.
• 20:14
  You know, typically universal basic income, UBI, the basic part of that is it provides a basic uh kind of a low number, like, you know, numbers have been thrown around about 12,000 per individual.
• 20:28
  Well, I don't know about you, but my wife and I can't live off of 12,000, a combined income of 24,000.
• 20:37
  We just can't.
• 20:39
  I know my finances and I know what our bills are, and we just can't do it.
• 20:44
  We can't live off of 24,000.
• 20:46
  But that's not the claim by Elon Musk.
• 20:48
  He says that work is going to be optional.
• 20:51
  The income is going to be so great that we're just not going to have to work.
• 20:56
  And that's everybody.
• 20:57
  There are no exceptions.
• 20:58
  That's every American.
• 21:00
  Well, that's a whole lot of money.
• 21:03
  I mean, that is a whole lot of money.
• 21:06
  So what his view is is called an accelerationist hypothesis.
• 21:12
  And that means that AI is going to accelerate so quickly, so rapidly that we can't help but to put universal basic income into place.
• 21:22
  That's going to be how we fund things like Social Security, which is, you know, my thoughts on that.
• 21:28
  It is a Ponzi scheme.
• 21:29
  Elon Musk famously dubbed it as a Ponzi scheme.
• 21:34
  I agree with him.
• 21:35
  I think he's right.
• 21:37
  Uh, and it's not because I think it's scammy and spammy and things like that.
• 21:43
  It's because by definition, a Ponzi scheme is where you have younger people funding the older people.
• 21:50
  So that in other words, those of us who are paying into it right now are not paying for our future selves.
• 21:57
  We're funding, actively funding the older people who are on Social Security right now.
• 22:03
  That is the definition of a Ponzi scheme.
• 22:07
  So at any rate, Social Security is bankrupt.
• 22:12
  And in the meantime, we have vulnerable people.
• 22:16
  A lot of vulnerable people.
• 22:18
  We have a lot of people living in poverty.
• 22:20
  So this idea of universal basic income, UBI, it really has been hotly debated in recent years, and so much so that we've been experimenting with economists by we, I mean economists, have been experimenting with this for uh several years now, and we're currently experimenting with it here in the United States in a lot of different places, actually.
• 22:46
  So there are a lot of struggles.
• 22:48
  There are a lot of hurdles.
• 22:50
  We have current structures in place, there are a lot of things to factor into this, and point blank.
• 23:04
  First of all, I was recently talking to a friend, and we were kind of laughing about this.
• 23:08
  We were talking about conspiracy theories because you know, there's the flat earth conspiracy theory, and uh, you have all these different conspiracy theories, and we're like, you know, do you realize the level of coordination that it would take to keep people in the dark, that the earth is actually flat, and the amount of coordination and lies, like intricate lies to keep this idea going for for years and years and years for decades, all the fake videos and photos and narratives and all that stuff.
• 23:44
  And so we're kind of laughing about this because we're like, you know, the government can't even pass a budget.
• 23:51
  Literally, the government can't even agree to pass a budget.
• 23:56
  And look at all the stuff that leaks out.
• 23:58
  Look at the emails that got leaked out.
• 24:01
  The the uh Epstein emails.
• 24:04
  Yeah, you can't like politicians can't keep their mouths shut.
• 24:10
  They can't keep a secret.
• 24:13
  They're they're um absolutely terrible at working with each other.
• 24:19
  Look at what look at Trump.
• 24:20
  He couldn't keep his mouth shut when Marjorie Taylor Green said that she was going to resign, he just he ran his mouth, and he can't help himself.
• 24:29
  It's it's like it's so predictable, right?
• 24:32
  So politicians, they can't keep themselves from running their mouths.
• 24:38
  And they can't keep secrets to stay their life.
• 24:43
  Not that that's a bad thing, as or there really shouldn't be secrets, but except when it comes to classified information, right?
• 24:51
  But even with classified information, they can't they can't keep it classified.
• 24:56
  People always leak stuff out.
• 24:59
  So the amount of coordination that it would take to maintain a conspiracy is absolutely incredible.
• 25:07
  Now, we're not talking about a conspiracy here.
• 25:09
  We're talking about passing legisl legislation, completely rewriting the tax code.
• 25:16
  I mean, it would 100% need to be overhauled and really probably dismantled and started from scratch.
• 25:24
  You think that's gonna happen in 10 years?
• 25:27
  You think Congress is gonna come together and they're actually gonna make this happen within 10 years?
• 25:33
  I am not gonna hold my breath.
• 25:36
  I'm just not I've seen enough and I've interacted enough with the government to know it is the most inefficient, embarrassingly inefficient organization that I've ever seen in my life.
• 25:50
  It's embarrassing.
• 25:53
  And I've talked about the government websites.
• 25:56
  Name a government website that actually works.
• 25:59
  They can't even build a website that functions.
• 26:02
  Like that's a basic, it's such a basic skill, and they can't do it to save their lives.
• 26:10
  So at any rate, I think for those reasons alone, it's just not gonna happen.
• 26:16
  Uh maybe down the line in in small doses, it could happen.
• 26:21
  And that's not even getting into the the whole debate about freedom and capitalism versus socialism, and like how do you define this?
• 26:34
  Where does this fall into place?
• 26:36
  What category do you put this in?
• 26:38
  Is this communism?
• 26:40
  Is it socialism?
• 26:41
  If so, I don't want anything to do with it.
• 26:45
  Or is this a form of capitalism that's more set up like dividends?
• 26:52
  Where there's an investment, you know, and so the way that they structure this really is is gonna matter.
• 26:58
  And I'm not talking about the way that they frame it, the the way that they describe it.
• 27:03
  I'm talking about the way they actually structure it.
• 27:07
  They would have to structure it in a way that keeps the constitution at the forefront of every single bill that they write.
• 27:19
  They can't circumvent the constitution, they can't go around it.
• 27:25
  They can't foo foo the constitution and then just put this in place.
• 27:30
  So it's very, very complex.
• 27:33
  I think the Supreme Court, they're gonna have their hands full for sure.
• 27:38
  And this is it's gonna be lengthy.
• 27:40
  There are gonna be just tons and tons and tons and tons of lawsuits, and they're they're gonna sue to have the Supreme, you know, to kick it back to the Supreme Court, the Supreme Court's gonna have to make a bunch of decisions.
• 27:53
  They can't seem to agree on a whole lot of things, and so it's it's it's complicated.
• 27:59
  So here are the five core characteristics and conceptual clarity that we have to really come to grips with to make universal basic income work.
• 28:12
  So the first is that the payment must be periodic.
• 28:17
  It's got to be delivered as a recurrent transfer.
• 28:22
  That would be monthly uh rather than a one-off grant.
• 28:27
  So think stimulus packages.
• 28:29
  They do they dish out or del out the stimulus, which I I can't stand because it's inflationary and it's our tax money that they're basically giving our money back to us and acting like it's a big gift with a big bow on it coming from the government.
• 28:47
  It is not, it's inflationary, it's our money, and it's just always a terrible idea.
• 28:55
  But anyway, I digress.
• 28:57
  So the payments have to be periodic.
• 28:59
  They have to be at least monthly.
• 29:03
  They would have to be guaranteed.
• 29:06
  Uh so number two, it would have to be a cash payment.
• 29:10
  You would have to grant all recipients, recipients full autonomy to convert their benefits into whatever goods or services they deem necessary.
• 29:19
  Number three, UBI must be universal.
• 29:23
  It must be paid to all members of the population without targeting specific demographics based on income, race, religion, wealth, sexual orientation, any of that.
• 29:38
  It has to be universal.
• 29:40
  Number four, UBI payment has to go to the individual, not a household.
• 29:50
  So it's allocated allocated per person rather than household.
• 29:57
  And finally, it must be uncomfortable.
• 30:00
  Conditional.
• 30:01
  Number five, unconditional.
• 30:03
  That means recipients are not subject to a means test.
• 30:07
  They can't do a drug test.
• 30:09
  They can't be, you know, none of that.
• 30:11
  It has to be 100% universal.
• 30:16
  They can't be required to perform work to qualify.
• 30:20
  It has to be unconditional.
• 30:23
  So those, according to true UBI, those are the five conditions.
• 30:30
  All right.
• 30:30
  Again, the payment must be periodic.
• 30:33
  It must be delivered as a recurrent transfer.
• 30:38
  Number two, it has to be a cash payment.
• 30:41
  Can't come in the form of gift cards or tax credits or anything like that.
• 30:46
  It's got to be a cash payment.
• 30:49
  Number three, it's got to be universal, paid to all members of the population without targeting specific demographics.
• 31:00
  Number four, it has to be paid to the individual, not to households.
• 31:06
  Every individual, every person must receive it.
• 31:10
  And number five, it has to be unconditional.
• 31:14
  That means there are no drug tests.
• 31:23
  All right, so the sufficiency level of UBI is a crucial classification criterion.
• 31:31
  A UBI set at a level high enough to meet a person's basic needs, or which is at or above the poverty line is designated a full basic income.
• 31:44
  That's FBI.
• 31:47
  Um conversely, a payment set below the threshold is classified as a partial basic income.
• 31:55
  So historically, no country on planet Earth has implemented a full UBI system.
• 32:02
  Now, the full UBI system is what Elon Musk is talking about.
• 32:07
  Where work becomes optional, you don't have to work.
• 32:11
  That would be a full UBI system.
• 32:13
  That's never been implemented or experimented with anywhere in the world.
• 32:19
  Partial systems have existed.
• 32:23
  Like in Mongolia, Iran.
• 32:27
  They've tried these partial systems.
• 32:31
  And many countries operate a quasi UBI program.
• 32:37
  And that demonstrates the concept of unconditional income.
• 32:42
  And that's uh things like universal child benefits, social pensions, which is restricted by age.
• 32:50
  So there are like these hybrid models, but no full basic income system.
• 32:59
  Not a full UBI system.
• 33:02
  So keep that in mind.
• 33:05
  So the question is, can we do it?
• 33:09
  Well, you're gonna run into a lot of problems.
• 33:12
  And first and and foremost, the biggest one of these is there is a major funding issue.
• 33:19
  And that's because of taxes.
• 33:21
  Under the current tax code, labor is the biggest taxed resource, quote unquote.
• 33:32
  We are taxed to work.
• 33:34
  Workers are taxed.
• 33:36
  It's the individual tax.
• 33:40
  That's where most of the tax money comes from.
• 33:43
  It's you literally pay money to work.
• 33:46
  They tax us to work.
• 33:50
  So what do you do with AI robots?
• 33:54
  They're not laborers.
• 33:57
  That's more of a commodity.
• 34:00
  And so that creates a gray area.
• 34:06
  And it's not just it's not necessarily a gray area.
• 34:09
  It's just it's an area that we don't have a tax code right now to tax the AI bots.
• 34:16
  And we have them.
• 34:17
  I mean, lots of companies have them.
• 34:20
  Look at what Tesla's doing with the AI bots.
• 34:24
  I mean, it's Elon Musk has put AI bots on steroids.
• 34:29
  Well, they're not taxed like we are.
• 34:32
  There's not an income tax, a federal income, state income tax.
• 34:38
  They're not paying an income tax.
• 34:42
  So there's a revenue problem right off the bat.
• 34:46
  Elon Musk claims that AI is gonna, they're they're gonna fund our economy.
• 34:52
  They're gonna add trillions of dollars.
• 34:56
  So for example, the uh there's that this is an argument against UBI, a major argument.
• 35:03
  And, you know, I uh I agree with this.
• 35:08
  It's the funding, fiscal impossibility and uh the status quo funding.
• 35:15
  It's the most immediate practical barrier to national UBI implementation.
• 35:21
  Uh conservative estimates indicate that a modest 12,000 dollars per year for UBI, which is not much.
• 35:30
  Again, I mean, not much for middle class people or upper middle class.
• 35:35
  Uh, for people living in poverty, this would be a huge boost.
• 35:39
  But for most people in the middle class, 12,000 a year, that it's not, you're not gonna live off of 12,000 a year.
• 35:47
  All right.
• 35:48
  So 12,000 per year UBI for US adults would cost about 2.4 trillion dollars annually.
• 35:57
  The fiscal demand is nearly equivalent to the size of an entire existing U.S.
• 36:02
  safety net.
• 36:04
  Funding this program would require either extreme tax increases across the board or massive cuts like Doge on steroids, massive cuts to other public spending, which is impossible politically to achieve.
• 36:22
  What doge look at the outcry at what Doge did.
• 36:27
  Look at what they cut and how people absolutely lost their minds.
• 36:34
  So how are they gonna cut?
• 36:36
  How are they gonna cut much much more?
• 36:39
  I mean, what Doge did was a drop in the bucket, an absolute drop in the bucket for what they would have to do in order to fund 2.4 trillion dollars annually.
• 36:48
  And again, that's just for 12,000.
• 36:53
  All right, we're coming up on a break.
• 36:54
  We will finish breaking this all down and by the numbers and all that after the break.
• 37:00
  In the meantime, all of our shows do go to podcasts the next day after the broadcasts heard on talk radio.
• 37:06
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• 37:09
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• 37:13
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• 37:14
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• 37:19
  Visit AmericaOutloud.news, visit the store, use the code out loud, and when we come back, we'll talk more about UBI.
• 37:27
  And is this a reality or is this a pipe dream?
• 37:31
  We'll be right back.
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• 39:50
  We're talking about Elon Musk's claim that within the next 10 years, work is going to be optional for all Americans.
• 40:00
  Work is going to be completely optional.
• 40:02
  We won't have to work because AI is so efficient and so productive, and it's going to generate so much money in the economy that we don't have to work.
• 40:15
  If we want to work, that's great, that's fine, but work is going to be optional for people.
• 40:22
  That's a lot of income.
• 40:24
  Think about what the average income is.
• 40:27
  You can look it up.
• 40:28
  You can look up the numbers.
• 40:29
  It varies by state for sure.
• 40:32
  But look at what the average income is in America, and then say, okay, that would have to be replaced to then some.
• 40:40
  Is that possible?
• 40:43
  Is this a possibility or is he delusional?
• 40:47
  Is he dreaming?
• 40:49
  Well, we will summarize at the end of the show here and talk about that.
• 40:54
  But right now, I want to talk about the experiments where we are actually actively trying this out.
• 41:01
  And one of those places is in Stockton, California.
• 41:05
  There is a guaranteed income program.
• 41:10
  And what would you think?
• 41:12
  Because I can tell you, I can share my thoughts.
• 41:15
  Here are my thoughts.
• 41:17
  I think that if you have universal basic income, if everybody gets the same amount, you know, whatever that amount is, everybody gets it.
• 41:28
  It deincentivizes people to work.
• 41:33
  People will no longer want to work if they don't have to work.
• 41:37
  And even if they're getting a supplemental income, they're just going to blow it.
• 41:42
  Right?
• 41:43
  The statistics show that people are not good with budgets.
• 41:46
  I talk about this often.
• 41:48
  People are not good with their budgets.
• 41:50
  U.S.
• 41:51
  debt is at an all-time, excuse me, all-time high.
• 41:55
  The number of cars being repossessed, it's at a high.
• 42:00
  It's spiking dramatically.
• 42:04
  The number of houses being foreclosed on going up.
• 42:09
  The number of people living in uh debt or poverty going up, homelessness going up.
• 42:18
  These numbers are creeping up, and it kind of indicates that people are not getting a grip on their budget.
• 42:25
  Look at what happens with lottery winnings when people win the lottery.
• 42:28
  There are no conditions except that you purchase a ticket.
• 42:33
  People win the lottery, the vast majority of people, it does not matter how many millions or hundreds of millions you put into the hand of somebody, the vast majority of people blow it and eventually wind up homeless or close to it.
• 42:49
  They end up living in poverty.
• 42:52
  Look at what happens with people who are professional wall players.
• 42:58
  Or people in Hollywood.
• 43:01
  A lot of them, especially in professional sports.
• 43:05
  A lot of them wind up living in poverty.
• 43:09
  They wind up bankrupt, literally filing for bankruptcy.
• 43:13
  You're like, wait, how can you make 150 million dollars in a contract season and you're living in poverty?
• 43:23
  Like you're you're you're literally having your home repo'd and your cars repo'd.
• 43:28
  How does that happen?
• 43:30
  Well, I don't know how.
• 43:31
  Well, I do, but um, but it's happening.
• 43:34
  That's the point.
• 43:35
  It's happening.
• 43:36
  So that would be my theory is that if you do UBI, universal basic income, no matter what the amount is, people are just going to blow the money, and it's going to lead to uh people, more people on drugs and et cetera, et cetera.
• 43:50
  Well, it turns out that I could not be more wrong.
• 43:56
  In Stockton, California, the guaranteed income program saw recipients increase their rate of full-time employment from 28% to 40% over one year.
• 44:09
  That's a 12 percentage point increase.
• 44:13
  That observation directly contradicts the theoretical critique that UBI removes the incentive to work.
• 44:20
  Recipients leverage the financial cushion to stabilize their lives, allowing them to exit unstable, low quality jobs and invest time in searching for better full-time employment, or pursuing certification programs for new career paths.
• 44:40
  In other words, when you're not living literally paycheck to paycheck, where that line is basically a thread.
• 44:55
  Where people come in and they have a literally a $5 bill, and they're like, I can't pay it.
• 45:02
  I'll just take the $20, they'll take the $20 late fee.
• 45:09
  And they'll try to pay that off because they can't come up with $5.
• 45:16
  And I don't think they're being irresponsible.
• 45:18
  I don't think they're, you know, I don't think they're being ridiculous.
• 45:21
  I think it's just what it's like to live in poverty.
• 45:23
  And so my heart bleeds for those people.
• 45:27
  And my wife even said, Can you imagine?
• 45:30
  Can you imagine what that's like to not be able to pay a $5 bill?
• 45:36
  And my honest answer is no.
• 45:39
  I can't imagine because I've never been there.
• 45:43
  I mean, I could guess what that would be like, but but I just can't comprehend it.
• 45:49
  Emotionally, I can't comprehend the stress and how challenging that is.
• 45:54
  Yet millions of people are living in that position.
• 45:56
  They're that vulnerable.
• 45:59
  So what's interesting is this experiment in Stockton, they gave an I think it was like $500 a month or something like that.
• 46:09
  It wasn't this huge amount.
• 46:11
  But just that little bit.
• 46:14
  What happened was it freed people up to be able to quit their low quality jobs and start searching for better full-time employment.
• 46:25
  And they did exactly that.
• 46:29
  They pursued different certification programs and new career paths.
• 46:34
  Recipients also experienced enhanced well-being and less depression.
• 46:41
  Well, I get it.
• 46:44
  I mean, if you're getting an extra $500 a month, that's a huge deal for people living in extreme poverty.
• 46:52
  And 99% of the cash transfers were spent on essential needs such as food, utilities, and autocare.
• 47:03
  Less than 1% was spent on things like tobacco, alcohol, you know, things that uh they were just wasting away.
• 47:12
  Less than 1%.
• 47:14
  99% was spent on essential needs.
• 47:19
  That's actually really encouraging.
• 47:21
  All right, so Kenya also piloted, and people are like, oh, well, that's just one place.
• 47:27
  Well, Kenya piloted a UBI program as well.
• 47:32
  And data indicated that the treated households were not working less.
• 47:36
  Instead, there was quote, substantial effects on occupational choice, with recipients shifting away from low productivity, precarious wage work, like agricultural labor toward non-agricultural self-employment and entrepreneurial activities.
• 47:57
  In other words, they're starting their own businesses.
• 48:02
  That's interesting.
• 48:03
  How about in Finland?
• 48:06
  The Finnish experiment, again, that was 2017 to 18.
• 48:11
  They selected 2,000 recipients.
• 48:13
  It was designated to test UBI's effect on employment, and it yielded mixed but generally neutral results.
• 48:24
  The UBI neither significantly increased nor reduced employment rate compared to the control group of those receiving the standard conditional employment benefits.
• 48:45
  Then the unconditional benefit.
• 48:48
  So it demonstrates that the bureaucracy and condition conditionality of traditional welfare systems offer no inherent advantage in driving labor participation.
• 49:01
  So recipients reported greater life satisfaction, improved cognitive skills.
• 49:08
  Here's where the benefits came into play.
• 49:11
  And they reported enhanced confidence in their ability to manage their financial situation.
• 49:18
  So it's kind of interesting.
• 49:21
  You know, their mental health increased, it got better.
• 49:24
  It didn't get worse.
• 49:27
  But in places where poor people are receiving universal basic income, the employment rate skyrocketed.
• 49:38
  The full time employment rate.
• 49:40
  They sought full time work, good full time work.
• 49:43
  And I think part of that is the confidence boost.
• 49:48
  So again, I can have my opinions all day long, but I'm just reading the facts.
• 49:59
  So
• 50:00
  So, yeah, uh long-term commitment is absolutely crucial if you're actually going to implement UBI, especially when you have this massive structural shift like AI automation.
• 50:15
  The commitment period has to be long term.
• 50:19
  The policy has to be a permanent foundation, not a temporary aid.
• 50:26
  Um the Kenyan pilots highlighted very different outcomes between a 12-year UBI commitment and a two-year short-term UBI commitment.
• 50:39
  You know, both groups received the same total amount of capital within the first two years, but the long-term UBI significantly outperformed a short-term model on every single economic measure.
• 50:55
  So I don't know, take that for what it for what it is, for what it's worth.
• 51:00
  But the UBI pilot programs, they actually increase mental health.
• 51:07
  They make it better.
• 51:09
  They actually increase productivity among people.
• 51:12
  It makes it better.
• 51:14
  Full-time employment makes it better.
• 51:18
  So I don't know.
• 51:19
  I I don't, I really don't know what to make of this, except that number one, I don't think that it's going to happen, at least not the way that Elon Musk describes it.
• 51:30
  I just don't think that we have the tax code, the infrastructure, or the unity within Washington, D.C.
• 51:37
  to make this happen.
• 51:40
  Now, will it happen in increments?
• 51:43
  Actually, probably.
• 51:46
  And again, I think there's there's an uphill battle to get to that place because you have the constitution.
• 51:54
  There's this thing called the Constitution, and you can't roll it up and use it as tissue paper.
• 52:03
  All right, you have to adhere to the United States Constitution.
• 52:09
  And so the question is, how do we care for the most vulnerable people?
• 52:13
  Because, and it's a valid question because we're not doing a good job of it right now.
• 52:19
  We're just not.
• 52:20
  I see too much poverty, and I see the effects of it.
• 52:23
  I literally literally see people bury their loved ones because they die from stress.
• 52:32
  They die from the stress of living in poverty.
• 52:34
  It's extremely stressful.
• 52:38
  It's a hard life.
• 52:41
  And we have millions of people living in poverty right here in the United States.
• 52:47
  We have lots and lots of people who are disabled.
• 52:54
  Who are getting tiny little crumbs thrown to them by the government?
• 53:01
  Oftentimes it's it's barely enough to even buy food, let alone to pay for rent and utilities and you know, all the things.
• 53:12
  It's not enough.
• 53:15
  So the question is, what are we going to do about it?
• 53:21
  You know, and that's where you and I come into play, and we can do what we can.
• 53:25
  I mean, we can help to the best of our ability, but at some point, there has to be a restructuring here in the United States.
• 53:33
  The income gap keeps getting bigger and big.
• 53:38
  The difference, the chasm between the rich and the poor, it keeps getting bigger and bigger.
• 53:45
  And, you know, I firmly believe that we can be on the side of wealth building and should be.
• 53:54
  Those of us who have uh good full-time, steady jobs.
• 53:59
  And I thank God that we're blessed to be in that position.
• 54:05
  But a lot of people aren't.
• 54:08
  They're just not.
• 54:11
  And what do we do for the people who are struggling?
• 54:15
  What do we do for them?
• 54:18
  And I think we need to be having these conversations.
• 54:20
  So while this sounds like a wacky idea by Elon Musk, the reality is that we need to do something in this country.
• 54:28
  There are too many people losing their lives.
• 54:30
  Too many people losing their lives to suicide because they can't handle the stress of living in extreme poverty.
• 54:40
  Too many people living with chronic illnesses because they're living with the stress of living in poverty.
• 54:49
  Too many people drinking themselves or drugging themselves to death, overdoses and whatnot because of the stress of living in poverty.
• 55:00
  It's a major problem here in the United States and across the world.
• 55:08
  The question is, what can we do about it?
• 55:13
  Individually, it goes back to what I talk about all the time.
• 55:17
  We are the hidden lightness, and we have the ability to minister to the person who's in front of us.
• 55:24
  I believe I firmly believe that that's what the Bible command.
• 55:28
  I think there are no exceptions.
• 55:29
  There are no that there's no option to help people.
• 55:35
  It is a mandate.
• 55:37
  It's a Christian mandate to the point where Jesus says, this is what divides the sheep from the goats.
• 55:43
  This is what divides people from going to heaven or hell.
• 55:48
  Whether you take care of people living in poverty or not, individually, we have tremendous power to help people.
• 55:56
  Now we're not gonna, we're not gonna solve the poverty issue by doing that individually.
• 56:02
  But what we can do is we can spark a grassroots um effort to help people and to be kind and to step in and pay people's bills when we can.
• 56:15
  I am 100% for it.
• 56:18
  But at some point, the government's gonna need to step in and they're gonna need to do a better job because right now they are failing on every single level.
• 56:27
  The government does a terrible job of taking care of the most vulnerable.
• 56:34
  And uh I think we can do better.
• 56:38
  Is universal basic income the answer?
• 56:41
  I don't know.
• 56:42
  All I know is that we're already seeing signs that this is going to be coming in some shape or form, it's gonna be coming to you, the American people.
• 56:53
  So what that looks like, I don't know.
• 56:56
  I'm not a prophet.
• 56:57
  I can't even begin to guess.
• 57:00
  But it will be interesting.
• 57:03
  But for us, let's be the hidden lightness and let's care for our neighbors who are in need.
• 57:07
  Let's bless them.
• 57:08
  Uh, let's pray for them.
• 57:10
  Let's not look down on people living in poverty ever.
• 57:14
  They've got a tough life.
• 57:16
  You can find more out about my show and get all the latest podcasts if you go to the menu navigation bar at America Outloud.news under our shows or schedule.
• 57:23
  You'll be in the know.
• 57:24
  There is a hidden likeness that shines inside of all of us.
• 57:27
  When there's so much darkness that envelops the world, remember that it doesn't take much light to expose that darkness and to ultimately inspire other people.
• 57:35
  Join me in being a lot.