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Why Bermuda Is At The Forefront Of Blockchain Tech (Podcast) · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:02
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penel podcast. I'm Paul Swinge. You
0:05
Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma Waits. Each day
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Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for
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Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or
0:12
Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg penl podcast on Apple
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Speaker 1: Podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as
0:17
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well, Bermuda has become a prominent
0:22
Speaker 1: player in the growing market for blockchain, fintech and virtual currencies.
0:26
Speaker 1: Help us better understand what is going on in Bermuda.
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Speaker 1: We welcome the honorable David Birt. He's Premier of the
0:32
Speaker 1: government in Bermuda. He joins us live here on a
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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio premiere. Thank you so much for
0:38
Speaker 1: being with us. I wonder if you could just get
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Speaker 1: my When I think blockchain, when I think krypto, I
0:42
Speaker 1: don't necessarily think of Bermuda. So tell me what's going
0:44
Speaker 1: on on that beautiful island Bermuda. Thank you very much. Paul. Well,
0:48
Speaker 1: when you think blockchain and crypto in the future, you
0:50
Speaker 1: should think about Bermuda because Bermuda was the first country
0:53
Speaker 1: in the world to actually have a full suite of
0:56
Speaker 1: laws and regulations to govern companies in this space. And
0:59
Speaker 1: we did that because we want to remain on the
1:01
Speaker 1: forefront of innovation in financial services. So now our Bermuda
1:06
Speaker 1: Monetary Authority, who is a world renowned regulator UM has
1:09
Speaker 1: an entire fintech team and we are there now able
1:11
Speaker 1: to license companies in this space to make sure that
1:14
Speaker 1: consumers are protected and that companies can grow and expand
1:18
Speaker 1: their services in a well regulated environment. So, uh, just
1:22
Speaker 1: I'm wondering, premiere, how closely do you watch the price
1:25
Speaker 1: of bitcoin? UM? I actually don't watch the price of bitcoin.
1:28
Speaker 1: I just gave him a quote bitcoin I just popped
1:31
Speaker 1: up on the screen. Well, I guess the reason why
1:33
Speaker 1: I ask is does the price of bitcoin cohere or
1:37
Speaker 1: sort of match the growing or waning demand by institutional
1:41
Speaker 1: investors for blockchain for the services that you're hoping Bermuda
1:46
Speaker 1: will be home to UM. I think that certainly the
1:49
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin as a factor, because a lot of
1:52
Speaker 1: the companies that are backed by persons who did make
1:56
Speaker 1: a lot of money during the run up in the
1:58
Speaker 1: price of bitcoin certainly are able to better deploy that
2:02
Speaker 1: capital but I think on a broader level, we're not
2:05
Speaker 1: looking at it from the short term. We're looking at
2:06
Speaker 1: it from the long term. This is just getting started.
2:09
Speaker 1: So what we want to ensure is that companies that
2:11
Speaker 1: are looking for that regulation have a home where they
2:14
Speaker 1: have a government that understands this. I have a technology background,
2:17
Speaker 1: they have a government that understands this, they have a
2:19
Speaker 1: regulator that's willing to work with them so they can
2:21
Speaker 1: design these new cutting edge products which will not have
2:24
Speaker 1: you know, digital currency is its own asset class, but
2:28
Speaker 1: we're talking about new financial products which heretofore you were
2:31
Speaker 1: not able to create, which you can now create UM
2:34
Speaker 1: with UH with these new UH distributed currencies. So we
2:39
Speaker 1: think about blockchain the technology, what are some of the
2:42
Speaker 1: applications that some of the companies that are coming to
2:44
Speaker 1: Bermuda think that might be some of the initial applications
2:48
Speaker 1: of blockchain or fintech. And broadly speaking, I can give
2:51
Speaker 1: you an example of one company which is called Diamond Standard,
2:54
Speaker 1: which is just announced that they're increasing the amount of
2:56
Speaker 1: jobs which UH. They have UM in Bermuda and are
2:59
Speaker 1: currently in the being regulated by the Muta Monitory Authority.
3:02
Speaker 1: And these are things that which you can do which
3:04
Speaker 1: you weren't able to do before. Their commoditizing diamonds. So
3:07
Speaker 1: before diamonds are one of those things you can't cut
3:09
Speaker 1: it because it loves its value. But that value is there,
3:12
Speaker 1: that value exists, So you can have secure custody those uh,
3:16
Speaker 1: those diamonds while at the same points in time leveraging
3:18
Speaker 1: those uh leveraging that asset and making use of it
3:23
Speaker 1: from that perspective, and you can do that with blockchain.
3:25
Speaker 1: You couldn't do that before. So Premiere, I'm just wondering.
3:28
Speaker 1: We talk about blockchain, we talked about virtual currencies. Blockchain
3:31
Speaker 1: increasingly is becoming sort of the state domain of back
3:35
Speaker 1: office operations. Virtual currencies still have a certain sexiness to them,
3:40
Speaker 1: but what is the primary business that you expect to
3:44
Speaker 1: fuel the industry in Bermuda? Is it blockchain? Is the
3:47
Speaker 1: back office sort of operations and tracking, or is it
3:51
Speaker 1: sort of this idea of virtual gold um I would
3:54
Speaker 1: say that it's more blockchain generally distributed leisure technologies, but
3:58
Speaker 1: they're but they're hard to divide because when we talk
4:01
Speaker 1: about you here bitcoin, which is a digital currency in
4:04
Speaker 1: its effect, but there are so many other types of
4:07
Speaker 1: digital currencies of which can be deployed to incentivize certain
4:12
Speaker 1: types of behavior. So when you're talking about the data,
4:14
Speaker 1: the data which you own, how do you get paid
4:16
Speaker 1: for the data which you own? In many different aspects.
4:19
Speaker 1: These are just two new structures which are able to
4:21
Speaker 1: be brought in place by distributed leisure technology. So it's
4:25
Speaker 1: the entire gamut right now. As I say, we're just
4:27
Speaker 1: at lead cutting edge, we're just at the beginning. So
4:30
Speaker 1: we're now beginning to see companies that are thinking. So
4:32
Speaker 1: in Bermuda right now, you can have a Bermuda company
4:35
Speaker 1: that can tokenize a real estate asset here in New
4:38
Speaker 1: York City and divide that amongst investors into multiple intantestimal divisions.
4:43
Speaker 1: These are things of which you can do efficiently now
4:46
Speaker 1: through blockchain that you were not able to do previously
4:49
Speaker 1: through traditional financial sector. We're speaking with the Honorable David Bird,
4:53
Speaker 1: the Premier of the Government of Bermuda, talking about all
4:55
Speaker 1: things crypto and fintech on the island of Bermuda. So
5:00
Speaker 1: a mirror wondering you know, Bermuda has always had a
5:03
Speaker 1: very strong regulatory framework. As you mentioned, I'm guessing from
5:06
Speaker 1: the insurance industry that that that's been home to the
5:09
Speaker 1: NFER for a long time. Who does Bermuda compete against
5:12
Speaker 1: in these early stages of trying to be the a
5:16
Speaker 1: home or a trust at home for UH blockchain type
5:19
Speaker 1: technology companies. Bermuda is not in composition with anyone. And
5:23
Speaker 1: there's a reason why I say that there's a lot
5:25
Speaker 1: of other countries around the world that will be engaged
5:28
Speaker 1: in the hype cycle. The fact is that as this
5:31
Speaker 1: early stages, there's going to be a lot of companies
5:33
Speaker 1: that pop up and a lot of companies that don't.
5:35
Speaker 1: In Bermuda, we started our licensing regime in September and
5:39
Speaker 1: today we've only had one company that's passed our licensing process.
5:43
Speaker 1: And there's a reason why we want quality and not quantity.
5:46
Speaker 1: We want to have those large institutional back companies that
5:50
Speaker 1: can actually pass those large hurdles because we don't want
5:53
Speaker 1: to have as a jurisdiction that protects its reputation consumers
5:57
Speaker 1: that would have lost a lot of money due to
5:58
Speaker 1: a cybersecurity era and the wrest. We have strict custody rules,
6:02
Speaker 1: strict cybersecurity rules and all those things which is necessary
6:05
Speaker 1: for adoption of this industry. So what I would say
6:08
Speaker 1: is that from that perspective we compete with no one.
6:11
Speaker 1: But I just want to say where Bermuda stands, there's
6:13
Speaker 1: only two countries in the world that have regulatory equivalents
6:16
Speaker 1: when it comes to risk, with both United States and
6:18
Speaker 1: the European Union, and that's Bermuda in Switzerland. And that's
6:21
Speaker 1: the class in which Bermuda plays in premiere. There is
6:24
Speaker 1: a little bit of a complication recently which has to
6:26
Speaker 1: do with Britain and Brexit. We do know that you
6:30
Speaker 1: guys are self governed, but you are a British territory
6:32
Speaker 1: and I'm just wondering how this sort of escalating debate
6:36
Speaker 1: in Parliament and and the likelihood of the increasing likelihood
6:40
Speaker 1: of potentially even a heartbreak affects your your your your
6:44
Speaker 1: territories economy. The only thing that I can say is
6:47
Speaker 1: the uncertainty is not helpful and we hope that someone
6:50
Speaker 1: would make a decision at some point in time um
6:53
Speaker 1: and it's very unfortunate. Ber Bermuda has its own relationships
6:56
Speaker 1: with the European Union and those relations as will continue.
6:59
Speaker 1: We have solvency to equivalents in insurance that was not
7:02
Speaker 1: through the United Kingdom that was through Bermuda and Bermuda
7:05
Speaker 1: Monitor Authority, direct liaise with the European Union, and those
7:08
Speaker 1: things will continue. We just hope that they can have
7:10
Speaker 1: some clarity as the nature the relationships so that we
7:13
Speaker 1: can actually plan our future engagement. But we expect minimal
7:16
Speaker 1: impact Bermuda from Brexit. Do you actually watch any of
7:19
Speaker 1: the Parliament debates? I woke up this morning watching Premier
7:23
Speaker 1: Prime Minister's question time, so I do. Actually. My wife
7:26
Speaker 1: laughs at me. She says that I'm addicted to Brexit
7:28
Speaker 1: and I can't get enough of the Brexit news. Well
7:31
Speaker 1: then you can. You'd be right at home up Bloomberg,
7:32
Speaker 1: cause we cover it very closely. Unfortunately, people have to
7:36
Speaker 1: be addicted because the outcome could potentially have pretty big
7:40
Speaker 1: ramifications on Britain and the territories. The Honorable David Burt,
7:43
Speaker 1: thank you so much for being with us. The Honorable
7:45
Speaker 1: David Burt, Premiere of the Government of Bermuda, joining us
7:49
Speaker 1: from our interactive broker studios in New York. Well. As
8:08
Speaker 1: the US and China trade tensions continue to simmer, markets
8:11
Speaker 1: are understandably nervous and our next guest is eminently qualified
8:15
Speaker 1: to a pine on these ongoing trade negotiations. Christopher Smartest,
8:18
Speaker 1: head of Bearings Investment Institute UH, and from he served
8:23
Speaker 1: US Special Assistant to the President at the National Economic
8:27
Speaker 1: Council and the National Security Council, where he was principal
8:29
Speaker 1: advisor on trade, investment and a wide range of global
8:33
Speaker 1: economic issues. Christopher, thank you so much for being with us.
8:37
Speaker 1: You just want to get your sense for the last
8:39
Speaker 1: ten days of really seeing these trade negotiations and the
8:43
Speaker 1: tensions between US and China really make a significant turn.
8:47
Speaker 1: Where do you think we are right now? I think
8:49
Speaker 1: right now we're still in kind of late stage throws
8:54
Speaker 1: of closing in on a deal. Of course, you get
8:57
Speaker 1: different messages from the White House in different days, but
8:59
Speaker 1: I think that seems to be where we're still headed.
9:02
Speaker 1: I think those who have done the long term negotiations
9:05
Speaker 1: with China this is relatively typical as we get closer
9:07
Speaker 1: to the end, where the bureaucracy back home may pull
9:10
Speaker 1: back from one or two agreed principles UH. And that's
9:14
Speaker 1: not unusual. I think it's not unusual for an American side,
9:17
Speaker 1: a political leader too threatened to walk away from the
9:20
Speaker 1: deal to sort of try and secure as much as
9:23
Speaker 1: as he can at the end of the day, but
9:24
Speaker 1: I think that's where we're still headed. I think the
9:26
Speaker 1: broader issue, though, is that looking out over the next
9:29
Speaker 1: few years or even decades, UH tariffs are going to
9:32
Speaker 1: be very much a part of our relationship with China.
9:35
Speaker 1: Whether they come off in the near term, I think
9:37
Speaker 1: they will always be looming in the background as a
9:39
Speaker 1: potential threat. And that's a new thing that investors in
9:42
Speaker 1: business UM managers are gonna have to deal with. Well
9:45
Speaker 1: and Christopher, we have seen money coming out of emerging
9:48
Speaker 1: markets funds over the past week or so as the
9:52
Speaker 1: rhetoric has gotten increasingly heated between China and the US.
9:55
Speaker 1: If the threat of tariffs does hang over China and
9:59
Speaker 1: the relationship between China the US in the years to come,
10:02
Speaker 1: what does that do for UM. Well, it's not great,
10:05
Speaker 1: since EM always depends on vibrant and growing UH international trade.
10:10
Speaker 1: But I think as investors learned to understand what the
10:14
Speaker 1: new framework is. I mean, tariffs are principally on the
10:17
Speaker 1: US China trade relationship. That creates opportunities for other emerging markets,
10:22
Speaker 1: particularly in South Asia. We've already seen that over the
10:24
Speaker 1: last few years, where costs in China have been rising
10:27
Speaker 1: and so people are looking for expanding their supply chains
10:31
Speaker 1: to UM, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and other other countries, so
10:36
Speaker 1: that will continue as well. One of the concerns Christopher
10:39
Speaker 1: is as to the extent that this trade tension goes
10:43
Speaker 1: on longer than people expect and the tariffs remain in place,
10:48
Speaker 1: it may prompt China to sell uh U S treasuries
10:51
Speaker 1: their holdings of US treasuries. What is do you think
10:55
Speaker 1: that could occur will occur? And topic of a deal
10:57
Speaker 1: is that, well, if if they did, it would be
11:00
Speaker 1: a big deal. I think the chances of them doing
11:02
Speaker 1: that in this sudden, reactive, punitive way or next to
11:07
Speaker 1: nil uh it would be a tremendously self self damaging
11:12
Speaker 1: act to undertake. China uses those reserves in order to
11:15
Speaker 1: help manage the movements of its own currency uh and
11:19
Speaker 1: you know, a quick sell off would um would lower
11:23
Speaker 1: the value of those um of those treasuries it continues
11:28
Speaker 1: to own, as well as raising interest rates and all
11:30
Speaker 1: the consequences of the global economy on which China ultimately depends.
11:34
Speaker 1: So I think that's a very you know, there will
11:36
Speaker 1: be times where they buy slightly less or they buy
11:38
Speaker 1: slightly more. But I think looking to that as the
11:41
Speaker 1: way they would react is the wrong place to look.
11:43
Speaker 1: More likely than not, they will react by imposing new
11:47
Speaker 1: restrictions on American companies doing business in China. Um something
11:50
Speaker 1: they've been very good at, something they've been trying to
11:52
Speaker 1: loosen up on. But it's very easy to reimpose those
11:55
Speaker 1: restrictions making it more difficult for American firms already in China.
11:59
Speaker 1: So Chris, President Trump has talked about how he now
12:02
Speaker 1: has to deal with this because previous presidents have not,
12:05
Speaker 1: and that the just the relationship between the U. S
12:08
Speaker 1: and China has been incredibly complicated in China's been taking
12:10
Speaker 1: advantage of US companies for years. As a former member
12:14
Speaker 1: of the Obama administration, what's your response, Well, we have
12:18
Speaker 1: been as a country dealing with the rise of China
12:21
Speaker 1: for years, for decades, and to be you know, honest,
12:25
Speaker 1: I think what President Trump is trying to achieve is
12:27
Speaker 1: very much in line with what previous presidents in both
12:30
Speaker 1: parties have been trying to achieve, which is to recognize
12:34
Speaker 1: that China is a very big and growing part of
12:37
Speaker 1: the global economy that we needed to be more integrated
12:40
Speaker 1: and more um in line with global trade and investment practices.
12:46
Speaker 1: How do you achieve that? That's the big question. The
12:48
Speaker 1: President has chosen to be much more forthcoming on the
12:51
Speaker 1: punitive tariff side of things. Uh, it may work. Uh,
12:56
Speaker 1: you know, time will tell. I think the issue is
12:59
Speaker 1: that there is a single agreement that will solve the
13:01
Speaker 1: problem anything that is done or agreed over the next
13:04
Speaker 1: few months. These are long term issues that will be
13:07
Speaker 1: coming back to and talking to China with for years
13:10
Speaker 1: and years ahead. And it's really much more about the
13:13
Speaker 1: kind of relationship you're able to develop with China to
13:16
Speaker 1: manage these issues, I think, much more than any particular
13:19
Speaker 1: deal that you may sign. Christopher Smart, thank you so
13:23
Speaker 1: much for being with us. Christopher Smart, head of Bearings
13:25
Speaker 1: Investment Institute Bearings Overseas more than three hundred billion dollars
13:29
Speaker 1: coming to us from Boston. Christopher really raises some interesting points,
13:33
Speaker 1: which is this is not that big of a departure
13:36
Speaker 1: from previous administrations in terms of trying to address the U. S.
13:40
Speaker 1: China relationship when it comes to trade. It is just
13:43
Speaker 1: a different approach and the question is will tariffs work?
13:46
Speaker 1: And only time will tell. Well, we did get those
14:06
Speaker 1: weaker than expected retail sales data figures out of the
14:10
Speaker 1: US this morning. There is a question of what this
14:13
Speaker 1: means for the consumer joining us now. Craig Johnson, president
14:16
Speaker 1: of Customer Growth Partners, joining us in our eleven three
14:19
Speaker 1: oh studios. Craig, thank you so much for being with us.
14:21
Speaker 1: When you joined us back in February, you said that
14:24
Speaker 1: the dismal, the dismal retail sales print that we saw
14:28
Speaker 1: earlier in the year was calculated wrong and the you
14:31
Speaker 1: expect five percent retail sales growth for this year. Do
14:34
Speaker 1: you still see that to be the case after April's report? Well,
14:37
Speaker 1: we were actually very encouraged by the April report because
14:41
Speaker 1: we look at things on a year of year unadjusted basis,
14:45
Speaker 1: and April sales ex autos, Excasole and X rests was
14:49
Speaker 1: up five pe a touch above our forecast for the
14:53
Speaker 1: year um and that shows very strong growth. The nominal
14:57
Speaker 1: sequential zero point to growth, we think to fall to
15:00
Speaker 1: the way to look fall the way to look at
15:01
Speaker 1: things because the adjustment factors two to ten full points
15:05
Speaker 1: in any given month, you know more than an order
15:07
Speaker 1: of magnitude. So the question is as a point to
15:10
Speaker 1: represent actual sales growth or the accuracy of the adjustment factor.
15:15
Speaker 1: So but apples and apples the year of the year,
15:17
Speaker 1: it's five point one up. So, Craig, we had Macy's report,
15:21
Speaker 1: and we're gonna have a bunch of the big retailers
15:23
Speaker 1: report their earnings coming up better than expected results out
15:26
Speaker 1: of macy Today stocks trading up modestly. What did you
15:29
Speaker 1: take out of the Macy's numbers, Well, the department store
15:33
Speaker 1: sector is is very troubled now. And the zero point
15:37
Speaker 1: seven percent comp they posted, it's like the old line
15:41
Speaker 1: in the Land of the Blind and one eyed man
15:43
Speaker 1: is king, and so of a sorry bunch um the
15:48
Speaker 1: zero point seven it was a very credible thing, uh performance.
15:52
Speaker 1: And the other aspect of it is the quarters started
15:55
Speaker 1: out very slow. The first six or seven weeks of
15:57
Speaker 1: the quarter were very slow, almost abysmal. Allen sharply and
16:01
Speaker 1: so Mazie's ended up on a on a high note
16:04
Speaker 1: entering May and we think it's that may well be
16:06
Speaker 1: nicely positioned for um for summer and back to school.
16:10
Speaker 1: Not that the point seven is going to be a pin,
16:12
Speaker 1: you know, five percent, but it should creep up from
16:14
Speaker 1: that point. So Greig I want to go back to
16:17
Speaker 1: what you were just talking about with the fact that
16:19
Speaker 1: you still are optimistic that the retail sales aut it
16:21
Speaker 1: that we saw this morning was actually much more positive
16:24
Speaker 1: than the market is reading it to be. What's the
16:27
Speaker 1: market getting wrong because you saw so off deep end
16:29
Speaker 1: after this data come out and you saw yields plunge
16:33
Speaker 1: on on US treasury is given the fact that people
16:35
Speaker 1: are pricing in slower growth without consumer support. Um, well,
16:39
Speaker 1: I think there's a There's a couple of factors at play. UM.
16:43
Speaker 1: One is the accuracy of the adjustment factor, and the
16:47
Speaker 1: Census Bureau has been changing their methodology uh for calculating
16:51
Speaker 1: the figure. And we believe that the adjustment factors retail
16:55
Speaker 1: is changing so quickly um with the rise of the
16:58
Speaker 1: Internet that um uh that the statistics generated by the
17:04
Speaker 1: Censors Bureau, we think are faulty unless you look at
17:07
Speaker 1: things on an unadjusted year of a year basis and
17:10
Speaker 1: take online Online is by far the fastest growing sector
17:14
Speaker 1: in December they showed since BREL showed like a one
17:18
Speaker 1: percent growth for the Internet. That's that hasn't happened like
17:21
Speaker 1: ever to have just a one percent growth, And then
17:24
Speaker 1: now this month in April, year of a year, Uh,
17:27
Speaker 1: it was aleven point nine. Um, so they're they're the
17:31
Speaker 1: numbers are gradually improving on a accuracy basis, but we
17:35
Speaker 1: think there are some questions about the methodology that over time,
17:39
Speaker 1: hopeully'll get cleared up. So so Craig. When I look
17:42
Speaker 1: at the Macy's release, I see a lot of talk
17:45
Speaker 1: about from management by cutting costs. And I can understand
17:48
Speaker 1: the need to cut costs in a in an environment,
17:50
Speaker 1: in a business where there's not a lot of top
17:52
Speaker 1: line growth. But at the same time, you feel like
17:54
Speaker 1: the traditional retailers that department stores ought to be investing
17:58
Speaker 1: in there maybe in their business trying to come but
18:00
Speaker 1: new models, new ways to reach perhaps the the the
18:03
Speaker 1: new consumer. How do you come out on balancing the
18:06
Speaker 1: cost cuts to make your numbers versus spending to try
18:10
Speaker 1: to drive top line growth. Well, I think your poll
18:13
Speaker 1: your point is well taken. And Macy's and other smart
18:17
Speaker 1: department stores, first of all, they they're beginning to recognize
18:20
Speaker 1: that they they work in a declining sector. Um it's
18:24
Speaker 1: department stares. Traditional department store is only comprised about one
18:27
Speaker 1: point three percent of over our retail sales, So it's
18:30
Speaker 1: a declining size of the pie. And so a store
18:34
Speaker 1: like Macy's, which has six D eight unit fleet, needs
18:36
Speaker 1: to trim the fleet on the one hand, but ramp
18:39
Speaker 1: up what they call their growth fifty, which is growth
18:42
Speaker 1: one fifty, which is the premier stores that are actually
18:45
Speaker 1: you know, pulling the train there, and they need to
18:49
Speaker 1: dump about another hundred stores that are just not pulling
18:54
Speaker 1: their weight. So I wanted to sort of broaden out
18:58
Speaker 1: here with respect to retailers because we talked about sort
19:01
Speaker 1: of the weakening consumer. You think is is a data issue,
19:04
Speaker 1: but what about tariffs? I mean, how much can these
19:06
Speaker 1: retailers absorb the costs? How much can they pass it along?
19:09
Speaker 1: And what are you expecting there? Well, um, we did
19:12
Speaker 1: a study that shows about everything that's been enacted now,
19:16
Speaker 1: in other words, through I think it was May ten um,
19:19
Speaker 1: the households would have an incremental um uh burden of
19:26
Speaker 1: about five and sixty dollars per household. And to put
19:29
Speaker 1: that in perspective, collectively across retail, that represents about zero
19:33
Speaker 1: point nine of total sales, which is not nothing, but
19:38
Speaker 1: it's not zero, but it's not some huge burden. And
19:42
Speaker 1: what happens is is that UM retailers UH or brands
19:47
Speaker 1: that try to raise prices are going to meet a
19:49
Speaker 1: lot of price resistance from the consumer. And if the
19:53
Speaker 1: retailer or the brand is smart, they will take that
19:56
Speaker 1: pressure from consumers and work it right back up the
19:59
Speaker 1: supply chain. UM. So example, number one known branded consumer
20:05
Speaker 1: product coming out of China's chin Dao. Let's say the
20:08
Speaker 1: landed cost of a six packs four bucks, and they
20:12
Speaker 1: try to raise that up UH, and after wholesale and
20:16
Speaker 1: retail margins, they're going to get something around the webbin
20:18
Speaker 1: dollars well from what might be now about nine and
20:22
Speaker 1: a half or ten dollars. Consumers will flock out of that,
20:26
Speaker 1: they'll bail out of chin Dao, and if they want
20:28
Speaker 1: to keep the business, they're going to have to eat
20:30
Speaker 1: eat some of you. That's it would be interesting to see.
20:32
Speaker 1: It's a very good point about, you know, how much
20:34
Speaker 1: will be passed along the consumers or will be taken
20:37
Speaker 1: by the supply chain. Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners,
20:41
Speaker 1: joining us here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio talking
20:44
Speaker 1: about Macy's talking about the retail sales number UH Craig says,
20:49
Speaker 1: you know, a year of a year better than the
20:51
Speaker 1: headline looks, and also talking about tariffs and the impact
20:54
Speaker 1: on the consumer end on retail spending. Well, two of
21:13
Speaker 1: the tech giants out of China reported earnings, Ali Baba,
21:16
Speaker 1: Intense Cent. Both stocks are up about one to two today.
21:20
Speaker 1: So to dig deeper into those earnings, so what it
21:22
Speaker 1: might mean about the underlying Chinese economy the Chinese consumer,
21:26
Speaker 1: we turned to Lulu Chen. Lulu is a reporter for
21:29
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News based in Hong Kong. Lulu, thanks for staying
21:33
Speaker 1: up late to be with us. Let's start with Ali
21:35
Speaker 1: Baba first. What are the takeaways the highlights for you
21:39
Speaker 1: from the Ali Baba earnings? So for Ali Baba, it
21:42
Speaker 1: proved to be really resilient, especially given how the economy
21:46
Speaker 1: has not been doing that great in China. Um, if
21:48
Speaker 1: you look at their core e commerce business, social really
21:51
Speaker 1: strong growth there. And then also the key metric that
21:55
Speaker 1: people are looking at is their customer management revenue and
21:59
Speaker 1: that's where advertising is included. That posted a thirty one
22:03
Speaker 1: percent growth, definitely a pickup and showing the fact that
22:07
Speaker 1: the company is able to monetize what it has been
22:12
Speaker 1: trying to push out a new initiative called recommendation feed
22:16
Speaker 1: and based on what consumers like their past shopping experiences,
22:21
Speaker 1: and and that has able been able to help the
22:23
Speaker 1: company leare more consumers to buy products on the on
22:27
Speaker 1: the site, and and returns also get advertisers to spend
22:32
Speaker 1: more money as well. So Lulu, the fact that Ali
22:35
Speaker 1: Baba posted sales and earnings that both topped estimates, is
22:39
Speaker 1: this a sign that the Chinese consumer is stronger than
22:42
Speaker 1: some people are giving them credit for, or is this
22:44
Speaker 1: a sign that Ali Baba is simply consolidating the market share.
22:48
Speaker 1: I think if you look at the total transaction figures,
22:51
Speaker 1: the growth was not that strong. So I don't think
22:54
Speaker 1: that Chinese e commerce as a whole is immune to
22:58
Speaker 1: the slowdown and macro economy. But Ali Baba has been
23:02
Speaker 1: managing to do really well as um introduced this thing
23:07
Speaker 1: called recommendations based feeds, and it's really using the eye
23:11
Speaker 1: and algorithms to show different people different user interfaces and
23:16
Speaker 1: product fees and that and return generates more shopping h
23:21
Speaker 1: churn from users, and for advertisers, what they want is
23:25
Speaker 1: to make sure that there are a lot their their
23:28
Speaker 1: dollar is spent in the right places and so for them, uh,
23:33
Speaker 1: it's also great to know that they're targeting the right
23:36
Speaker 1: users when they spent those advertising dollars. So Ali Baba
23:39
Speaker 1: has really been hunting in on that. So let's switch
23:42
Speaker 1: gears to ten Cent, another large Chinese technology company. They
23:48
Speaker 1: reported as well, what were your takeaways there? That stock
23:51
Speaker 1: has not been as strong a performer, you know over
23:53
Speaker 1: the its recent past as Ali Baba has been. Yeah,
23:57
Speaker 1: it's a it's a next picture for a ten Cent,
23:59
Speaker 1: I guess. They also showed signs of recovery definitely. Analysts
24:03
Speaker 1: are saying that the worst is behind us, given how
24:06
Speaker 1: brutal the past year has been, especially with the regulatary crackdowns.
24:10
Speaker 1: At least for now, their their game approval. The pipelines
24:14
Speaker 1: are back on UM. The company is rolling out this
24:18
Speaker 1: new game called a Peacekeeper Leak, and it's sort of
24:23
Speaker 1: in the same drama as Battle Royale, UM in the
24:27
Speaker 1: same vein as pup G and also Fortnite. So a
24:31
Speaker 1: good game breaks in twenty million dollars within the first
24:34
Speaker 1: five days that there is. Also, user reviews are kind
24:38
Speaker 1: of a mixed bag as well, so we still need
24:42
Speaker 1: some more time to see whether Tencent can really get
24:44
Speaker 1: back to its glory days where they were just posting
24:48
Speaker 1: so much revenue growth UM based on share gaming demand.
24:52
Speaker 1: You know, there was a stunning statistic in ten cents
24:55
Speaker 1: earnings that the cash the company spent on investing in
24:58
Speaker 1: other companies was at from the year before. How barished
25:03
Speaker 1: is that for the entire tech sector in China. UM
25:07
Speaker 1: that statistic is is based on I think what the
25:10
Speaker 1: company really said was that the amount that they spent
25:14
Speaker 1: on cash for investing and its investing as a whole
25:19
Speaker 1: has actually dropped in UH. Investing in Portofolio companies is
25:24
Speaker 1: definitely part of that UM for Tencent. UM management has
25:29
Speaker 1: always been very adamant and since that they said, they
25:32
Speaker 1: say that they're going to keep investing. The company has
25:35
Speaker 1: invested in more than seven companies globally. I don't think
25:39
Speaker 1: they're backtracking from that strategy as of now. So the
25:42
Speaker 1: Legitio briefly did either company, how any commentary what they
25:46
Speaker 1: thought or how they thought trade negotiations would go. Yeah,
25:49
Speaker 1: Ali Baba um Joe's Hive vice chairman for Ali Baba
25:53
Speaker 1: was very vocal about this. UM. He tried to obviously
25:57
Speaker 1: put a positive spin on it and say that as
26:00
Speaker 1: part of the negotiation for the trade wars, China will
26:04
Speaker 1: become a net import country. And Ali Baba has been
26:08
Speaker 1: positioning for this for a very long period of time.
26:11
Speaker 1: They really want to leverage their cross border transaction UH
26:15
Speaker 1: infrastructure UH to fully help OTHERIR exporters outside of China
26:20
Speaker 1: to sell to train consumers. And it's all part of
26:24
Speaker 1: the whole consumption upgrade narrative that they've been talking for
26:27
Speaker 1: many years. Very good, Lulu Chen, Thank you so much.
26:29
Speaker 1: Lulu's reporter for Bloomberg News in Hong Kong, staying up
26:33
Speaker 1: late to cover the Ali Baba intencent earnings and to
26:36
Speaker 1: share her thoughts with us. We appreciate that. Again, Ali
26:39
Speaker 1: Bab inten sent to Chinese tech giants reporting earnings. I
26:42
Speaker 1: think Ali Baba people really look at the Alibaba story
26:45
Speaker 1: really as a call on or a view into the
26:48
Speaker 1: Chinese consumer and consumer spending. And you know, good numbers, Lisa,
26:52
Speaker 1: and I think you know, at least in the short term, um,
26:55
Speaker 1: you know, not much of an impact from the trade uncertainty,
26:57
Speaker 1: but obviously it'll be quarters to come to see how
27:00
Speaker 1: the Chinese consumer really responds to trade uncertainty. Thanks for
27:04
Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can
27:07
Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever
27:10
Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter
27:13
Speaker 1: at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa abram Woyits I'm on Twitter
27:15
Speaker 1: at Lisa abram Woits One. Before the podcast, you can
27:18
Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio