Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / ⚠️Massive Short Squeeze Warning as FED Flips [Stock Market Live] + Stock Market News 09 February 2024

Transcript

⚠️Massive Short Squeeze Warning as FED Flips [Stock Market Live] + Stock Market News 09 February 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Thanks and welcome to this Friday morning short squeeze, extra ganza bonanza.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you exactly what squeezing and why, how we make money out of it.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: I might even show you a trade or two.
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: So let this old invest and banker entertain you for the next 30 minutes or so.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Ask me questions, I'll answer them all.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Just pop them in the live chat.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: If you're watching this on replay, pop them in the comments.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I do read and answer them all.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Well, unless they're really silly, unless they're entertaining, in which case I shall and let's walk through it.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Shall we, before we do one thing you can do in four days, and that is make 2020 for the best year of your life.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: How?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: By actually understanding how you can make money from your money and build a passive income stream in a couple of hours a week.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Come and join me on Tuesday, felix Franzler or slash webinar, for about 90 minutes and I'll show you how.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you my structure, my system.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: You can walk away with that knowledge completely free, felix, friends at org slash webinar, so check it out.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Shall we have a look.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, let's look at a couple of things before we get to the short squeeze, because it's you need to understand a little bit of backdrop here.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: So the expectations of rate cuts have once again plummeted and are basically now, well, we're not expecting at all, and we're now expecting interest rate cuts in the range of 1.2% for the whole year.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: That was 1.5% for the whole year only five days ago, so that two rate cuts less.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Also, rate cuts are a scarce thing, apparently, and it's a weird thing because normally the stock market has been moving in tandem with rate cut expectations, but rate cut expectations are now plummeting and at the same time the SMP is going to the moon.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I'm going to need to understand why, so that we figure out which one is going to fill the massive whopping gap between the two.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Is the SMP going to rally further above 5,000 over the glory, or rate cut expectations going to go up because Papa Biden will remember his own name?
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: You see that.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You see that it's other people allegedly running.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: Does anybody actually believe he runs the country?
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I see, I see, I see territory.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: I know you always piss off half the audience when you talk about politics, but yeah, the SMP actually broke through 5,000 yesterday and, as I was checking earlier, the SMP futures currently at 5,028 glorious points.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: So that's pretty good, isn't it?
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: It's pretty good, as most people are probably bullish.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: The gap between the SMP showing on my chart in green that's the SPX and the red thing here which is the Russell or the IWM, is massive, but it is shrinking because we've got a short squeeze on that.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I'll explain to you in just a few moments.
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: After a few hundred more of you have destroyed the like button Out of sheer frustration, the bank that you all want to be banking with NYCB they are trustworthy, honest, all good.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: Well, it wasn't doing so well yesterday.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: It did come down a fair bit, but it's very volatile and that's obviously one thing.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: To look at.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: The whole regional banking index KBW is sort of wobbling sideways at pretty low levels and something to watch out for and to wonder when the bailout is going to hit us, because there will be a bailout.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Mark my words.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: The NASDAQ compared to small caps.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: It peaked in November and it's peaking again now.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: So there might be a bit of a reallocation towards small caps once again, and I'll show you why in just a moment.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: But at the moment we're playing yo-yo between the NASDAQ and the Russell, which is kind of entertaining and making lots of traders lots of money and it's relieving everybody else wondering what the freak is going on.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: We have the chip lot, amazon is invested and so on absolutely freaking exploding yesterday from below 80 to, at one point, $126, I think absolute insanity up about 50% in a day.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Because, well, they probably used the word AI.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It seems to be the latest craze.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: They basically make cheap versions of what NVIDIA does, just not quite the high caliber.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: That's what they're up to.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: And then, woke, mickey Mouse is also celebrating and now identifies as a bullish stock and is quite nice.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Actually, that is almost bringing them up, mickey and its cross-dressing crew, to February 2022 levels just sort of the last high.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: So I would probably say we might have peaked here for a bit and we might be interesting to see if that's going to keep going up.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: I do actually think Disney as a company can really only get better.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: I think he sings with a hard hat on and wearing a frock.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, I actually think Disney's numbers are getting better.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: As a stock investment, it's probably not such a bad thing, but whenever you mention that, you get hit over the head by all the anti-wokers and everybody who identifies as a mouse.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: The Magnificent Seven are losing a little bit of steam.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Well, we are at very elevated levels, but this morning looks good and optimistic.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: But you're still wondering, felix, where is my squeeze?
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: Squeeze me, squeeze me, squeeze me hard.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: And here it is.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: Goldman Sachs' most shorted stocks have done a pretty tremendous thing.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: They have rallied very, very significantly.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Now what's most shorted?
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: It's generally anything sort of considered me-me, non-profitable tech, all that kind of good stuff, which is why you've seen some of your portfolio, if you are in that rally yesterday.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: At the same time, government yields are back up massively in February, which should, in theory, have tanked the market, but it hasn't slightly baffling.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: And then we've got the Bitcoin ETF.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: We must talk about the Bitcoin ETF.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: I was actually thinking about making a video actually explaining what the Bitcoin ETFs really do and if it's a good idea and so on.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Anybody who would be interested in that let me know in the comments.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin ETF do you want to dive deeper into that?
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I know a lot of you guys are not necessarily into crypto.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: I'm a kryptonite doubter myself but it might be an interesting thing to look at.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: And what can you see?
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: You can see the amount of inflows is declining.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I think JP Morgan's saying that all of this is disappointing.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: There's all these ETFs have been launched, but the money isn't actually flowing into them as quickly anymore as people had previously thought.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: There was a bit of a bonanza on the first two days and now it's sort of slowing down a bit.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Fidelity and pro shares do seem to be mopping up most of it.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Can't actually tell you why, but I'll be happy to look into it for you if you want S&P.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: What does SPX aggregate dealer gamma out six months mean?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Does it mean I've lost the plot and I'm trying to scare away all viewers?
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: No, let me show it to you.
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: It's actually quite nicely color coordinated Above 5,000 on the S&P up to 5,100.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: So 5,000 to 5,100.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Dealers the drug dealers at the corner, sell the S&P.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: No, not the drug dealers at the corner, the crazy guys on the trading floor wafting pieces of paper.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: They are selling and then they're buying again from 5,100 upwards.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: So if we manage to jump 100 points up over the dealer moat with the crocodiles, then they're buying.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: They are also buying if we drop.
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: So 4,900 to 5,000.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: They're also buyers.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: So you do get some stability if you go down.
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: But it just gets a little bit dicey here.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: The next 100 points also.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: So that's something that's kind of useful to understand, I would say.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: And then the real I'm basically bullish.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: The market can maybe tell I'm excited.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: But there is one thing that will turn me non bullish and for that I need to find an orange pen.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: The orange line on this is meme, basically the crap that the reddit lot likes.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: And when meme peaks, as it did in July, can't spell July, apparently too much for a banker.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: And as it did in, I want to say, november.
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: When meme peaks, the market peaks.
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: The S&P typically peaks, not always, but typically.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: So I am waiting for the meme to go up and then come down again and at that point I think I will pull my bullish trades back a fair bit.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: At the moment we're doing quite nicely.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: You want to see what we got?
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Not a lot $45,000.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: So we're going to be doing quite nicely.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: When the market opens, a lot of these numbers will peak up.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: We took quite a bit of profits yesterday.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: So we're up $1,500 so far in February, something like that.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Something spent, I'd say, an hour on this, which is not a terrible hourly rate, is it?
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: You zoom out a little bit and you're thinking more like what's happening in six months or 12 months more like 12 months the credit card delinquencies people not paying their credit cards are going up to levels that are a little bit worrisome.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: In the 2009 recession, we had fairly elevated levels of credit card delinquency and we are kind of approaching those levels again right here right now.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: And that kind of goes against the government myth of this full employment and everyone's happy and everybody will vote for the senile old man in the White House, because we feel a little bit sorry for him.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: That's the key thing I would look at this morning, and then I would look at the live market, which we shall, but I'd also highly, highly encourage you to actually learn how to make money, no matter what the market does, because that's really where the fun is at right.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I actually like the down market.
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: We just haven't seen one in a while but when we do, we'll make money out of it.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So come and join me.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Even on that side, I'm doing my best.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Biden impression, wandering off in the wrong direction.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Felix friends, the locks webinar, come and learn from an old investment banker how I make money in maybe two or three hours a week.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: A little decent money.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Felix friends, the locks webinar, check it out.