Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Can’t Defend His Bad Economy + Democrats Have Lost Their “Reformer” Image

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Can’t Defend His Bad Economy + Democrats Have Lost Their “Reformer” Image · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: so use that code. Hello, They're happy Wednesday, and welcome
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. Look, we've got
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: the President headed to China, and I'm gonna have a
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: lot more to say about where it is, where the
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: status of him when it comes to aron world economy.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: What I fear is going to not be a great
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: trip to China, But we'll talk about that again a
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: little bit tomorrow. I've got a terrific guest lineup for
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: tomorrow's episode. But I did want to say, like I said,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna spend a lot more time on Iran, a
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: lot more time on this China trip in general, but
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: sort of the incredibly weak position that the President has
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: put himself in right. This is one of those cases
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: where he put himself into this position with the illegal
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: tariffs which have been struck down now twice by courts,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: and he's got very little leverage going into this meeting.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: He needs more from China than China needs from the
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: United States. Never a good way to go into a
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: incredibly important bilateral meeting. But I'm going to have Mark
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Zandy for the Thursday podcast from Moody's chief economist, who
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I just think is the straightest shooter out there on
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: what's happening, because this massive inflation report that came out
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: today really sort of and you could hear defensiveness with
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: the President. He met with reporters just before he got
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: on to marid One to start start the trek halfway
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: around the world for his China for his China trip,
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: and he was asked a question that really, look, there's
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: a few clips, and there's been one I think that
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: has made more rounds. That is, you know, one of
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: those things where he was answering a longer question about
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: concern about Iran nuclear weapons and then what he said
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: about I don't think about people's financial situations. It's one
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of those where you can clip it out of context
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: and really make it an effective attack on him in
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: a campaign. And I have a feeling most of you
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: have seen that clip, but there was another clip after
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: it that was not out of context, So it is
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: it was the answer. It was the question, frankly, that
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: you could argue every single campaign at ought to be asking,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: every voter ought to be asking every elected official, is
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: Trump's policy is not working? So the reporter did a
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: shouted question about the new inflation report that showed we've
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: hit the highest inflation rate month over a month of
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: month increase year over year, highest level in three years.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And the question was pretty simple, is this mean your
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: policies aren't working? And he got defensive immediately, right, he
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: is clearly not going to be his party's mess messenger
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: on the economy, especially since this economy is in worse
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: shape than when he got it because of the things
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: he's done, the tariffs having contributed to inflation, the War
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: of choice with Iran has had a massive impact on inflation.
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  Speaker 1: And we're not even done yet. This is why it
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: was so important for me to get the Mark Xandy
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: interview on the books. We are only at the beginning
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: of this inflation pain. Unfortunately, it's it's going to get
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: worse before it gets better. Politically, it means we already
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: know that what the November economic outlook looks like, and
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: this president has zero answers for this. He got very
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: defensive with the question. He says, before the war with Iran,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: it was at one point, you know, eight percent, everything
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: was going fine. That wasn't true. As usual, he always
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: It's like when he used to talk about how great
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: his economy was pre COVID, he would always sort of,
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: you know, the fish gets bigger, right, That is the
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: classic Donald Trump ism. You know, if he caught a
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: five inch fish, by the time he tells you the
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: story the first time, it's a foot and a half
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: later it becomes eight feet, ten feet, et cetera. That's
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: you know, him and his really bad math. Right, when
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: you save nine hundred percent on something, which means somehow
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: people would be paying you to get to get whatever
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: it is that's being discounted. But I digress him in
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: the English language. I think there. I think they occasionally
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: meet each other, but I'm not sure. I'm not sure
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: it's his native tongue. But at this point, I think
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: ai slop when he can't sleep is his new language
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: of choice these days. But he gets really defensive and
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: then he starts saying, well, you know, we thought the
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: stock market was going to go down and now it's
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: at its highest levels, which it is not right, it
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: is still not cracked fIF Dow fifty thousand. Again, since
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: that time, Pambondi, who was Attorney General at the time,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: didn't like the question she was getting on the Epstein
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: files and said, you won't ask about Dow fifty thousand. Well,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: we're still have not gotten back over the fifty thousand mark.
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  Speaker 1: We've gotten close right this AI. You know, the essentially
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the AI investments have totally overwhelmed what normally would probably
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: be market setbacks due to this war. And frankly, it's
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: still a bigger possibility that that's going to happen than not. Yes,
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of stimulus money into the into the
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: into the economy. This is a case of it's not
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: stimulus from the public sector. In this case, it is
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: stimulus from the private sector. Just think a couple of
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: weeks ago, three different earnings reports indicated a combined seven
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars of investment investments into AI infrastructure, whether
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: it was Microsoft, Amazon, I think, and Alphabet those three alone.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: I think it was their collective investments in that. And
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: that's you know, any public sector stimulus package. That's about
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: the size of the last one that we did when
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: we got into a recession. So there's no doubt this
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: is keeping us out of recession territory. But the day
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: to day costs and this economy is getting more expensive,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: inflation and now stagflation is more likely. He's not a
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: good messenger, and now we have the economy you're going
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: to have for the election. Right, we've been sort of
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: holding off, but it is pretty clear we're nowhere near
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: this war is this war is not going to end tomorrow.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: We're weeks away at best to having some resolution on
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: what traffic's going to look like in the straight of
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: horm moves, and if for weeks away from that. Even
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: under the best case scenario, the energy supply chain doesn't
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: get back to normal until maybe the end of this calendar,
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: but more likely the early part of twenty seven. So
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: we know this is not going to be a good
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: economy for the elections. That's not good for the incumbent party.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: What we don't know is how big is this floodwall,
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: this redistricting floodwall, how big is it? You know, those
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: are the court and the fact that this Senate map
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: is a map that's being fought more in light red
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: territory than it is in purple or light blue territory.
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: Right it is. There is certainly a higher bar Democrats
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: have to get to to win a governing majority in
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: the House and to win a majority in the Senate.
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  Speaker 1: But essentially they've got they've got plenty of fodder to
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: start using. I mean, you know, you've got the two eight. Now,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that Democrats don't have their own problems, right,
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: It's not exactly breaking news that the Democratic Party has
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: a brand problem. Everybody knows it. Democrats know it, Republicans
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: know it. Republicans are counting on that brand problem to
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: limit their losses in twenty twenty six. Independents certainly know it.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: But we have to remember, no matter what happens in
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, that brand problem is not going to
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: get resolved this year. And in fact, they can have
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: a brand problem, be underwater and unpopular with the public
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: and still win big majorities in the House and get
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: four or five or even six Senate seats. That's how
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: unpopular the president has become. That's how unpopular this economy
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: is likely to be by November. Right, you think this
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: is the beginning of a surging inflation issue, is what
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: point is? We're only at the beginning of this inflation
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: problem in day to day goods. It is only going
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: to get worse, particularly on food, not only in gas. Right,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: it is just the high diesel prices. They're just now
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: being passed into the economy. So we are all we
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: are all not there. So the terrain is what it is.
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: The politics of twenty twenty six on a messaging level,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: are just straightforward. Right now, Democrats have the case to
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: make against Trump if simply you broke two of your
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: three basic promises. Right, he promised lower costs. Everything's higher. Like,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: there's nothing that is lower anymore except maybe his gold phone,
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: which I don't know if you can purchase, but if
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: you purchase, you're still not going to get one. The
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: country feels unstable. Donald Trump promised no more wars, no
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: more stupid Middle East wars, his son even as a
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: tweet that's been making the rounds in the fall of
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, bragging about how the only way to
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: stay out of a war with Iran is to elect
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: his father. The Iran conflict has made that promise a
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: lot harder to sell politically, So the opening for Democrats
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: is obvious. They don't have to make a four case
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: and midterms are never four cases, they're against cases. All
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: they have to do is run against the higher costs,
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: the economic anxiety, the global instability, and another oversehas conflict it.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: And by the way, that's a message that can if
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Democrats choose to do this work everywhere. Urban districts, suburban districts,
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: working class districts, ex. Surban districts, rural districts. Now, we
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: don't know whether Democrats will actually have strong enough candidates
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: to execute that strategy competently. That's what the campaigns are for.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: We'll find out in the next six months. There's probably
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: going to be some Democrat none of us have talked
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: about that's going to win in a ruby red area
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: because they're really good at messaging and they really come
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: across trustworthy when they make this message. This isn't a
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: hard message to sell whether you're in Idaho, Iowa, Miami,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: or northern Virginia. What's hard is being a candidate that's
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: credible enough to sell it in some places. So the
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: bigger variable in twenty twenty six may not even be messaging, right,
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: It may simply be what does the political map actually
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: look like by election day? Right? That's the thing that's
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: up that we don't know. Is it that the max?
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: You know we're going to have maybe thirty We may
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: only have thirty competitive house seats total. I saw one
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: estimate that put it at thirty one to travesty, right,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: that is not That is when you're asking yourself, we're
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: not a democracy. We're to cartographers here, and then we're
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: like arguing over the last bits of you know, border
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: disputes between the two parties. With these thirty congressional seats,
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Democrats aren't going to win all thirty. So you're looking at,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you know, can they get to two hundred and thirty
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: house seats and be picked up about fifteen sixteen seventeen seats?
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: You know, but that's a big night for them with
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: a flood wall this high on that front. But here's
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: the thing. Even if Democrats have a good twenty twenty six,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: even if they win the House, even if Trump's numbers
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: deteriorate further, there is a larger issues that is hanging
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: over the party that's not going away. What is the
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party now? What does it actually stand for? What
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: is its identity? That's what I made my substack this week,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's identity crisis, because they still have one,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: and they're going to have one now. I think that question,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: more than any midterm result, is going to become the
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: defining argument of the twenty twenty eight Democratic primary. And honestly,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: that primary effectively begins the moment polls close this November.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: You will have whether it's JB. Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, Rama Manual,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Lissa Slock, and they will all be ready to talk
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: and suddenly talk about running in twenty twenty eight. Immediately,
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: everybody now knows early bird, early bird matters, especially for
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: those that have never run before. The only people that
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: have the luxury of waiting are the ones that have
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: run before. So the ones that have never run before
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: got to jump in early, and they're going to. And
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: while nothing happening this year is necessarily definitional for the
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Democratic Party long term, it's a midterm argument. It's a
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: like I said, it's an against case, not a four case.
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: I will say this, the events of the last few
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: weeks have reminded me of the deeper challenge Democrats face.
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: I think the Virginia issue, I don't know what else
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: to refer to it. At the Virginia remap attempt accidentally
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: exposed this problem because what happened in Virginia was ostensibly
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: about redistricting, but the reaction to it revealed something bigger,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: something deeper, and I think it gets to the core
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: identity crisis now sitting inside the Democratic Party. The controversy
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: started with maps. Obviously, Virginia Democrats pursued a strategy designed
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: a counter Republican jerrymandering elsewhere, and the Virginia Supreme Court,
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: of course, ultimately rejected the process that produced the maps
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: ruling the constitutional procedure itself was flawed, not the maps
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: but the procedure. But what followed was revealing. There was anger,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: not simply at Republicans, but at the court itself. There
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: was complaints about the legitimacy of the ruling, not from
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: every corner of the left, but from quite a few,
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: and there were complaints about process. And then there was
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: that ridiculous idea in some democratic circles that apparently became
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: Jeffries was a part of about some dramatic institutional responses
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: to the court ruling in Virginia, including ideas that would
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: have effectively forced the Virginia Supreme Court into retirement and
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: allowed it to be essentially restructured or reappointed. So let's
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: stop here for a second, because I think the fact
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: that that reaction had made its way into the democratic
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: leadership conversation. I'm not saying Jeffries endorsed the concept, but
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: it was during his apparently these venting sessions. That reaction
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: tells you something not just about Democrats, but about American
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: politics more broadly at the moment, because increasingly both parties
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: sound a lot less like reform movements, which is what
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: a political party should be at its core, right, that's
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: what parties are supposed to be. But these parties now
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: behave more like institutional combatants trying to preserve advantage inside
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: a system that fewer and fewer people trust. And Democrats
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: in particular now seem caught in a contradiction that I
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: don't think they have fully reckoned with. So, for instance,
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: the Democrats, I think do a good job of speaking
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: the language of insurgency, resistance, movement, politics, protecting democracy, fighting
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: for the future. But increasingly the voters see a party
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: deeply intertwined with the country's institutional architecture universities, nonprofits, legacy, media,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: and public sector systems, professional class, governance structures. That sort
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: of management class has become a Democratic party base, and
• 17:36
  Speaker 1: federal agencies. In other words, Democrats often want a sound
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: revolutionary while behaving institutionally, and I think voters can feel
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: that contradiction. Now, to be clear, none of this means
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: Republicans are somehow better actors. They're worse actors in this,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: but they don't pretend to be better actors. In many states,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Republicans remain far more aggressive practitioners of this raw partisan
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: jerrymandering in Texas and Florida. We saw it with the
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: North Carolina Republican controlled state legislature Tennessee, Missouri, just you
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: know straight, you know, it's interesting where there was resistance
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: by the way the South Carolina State Senate, the fact
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: that just enough said no. They made a decision that
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: I think was in the best interests of the Republican party.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: You carve up Cliburn seat. I think you put two
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: districts in play. Now, Democrats may end up with two
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: South Carolina districts anyway. They may win the Charleston seat,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: that's Nancy Mace's open seat. But you try to carve
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: up Cliburn district and you start to distribute it everywhere else.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: South Carolina is not that Republican enough. They could put
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: two or three. I mean, before the majority minority reapportionment
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: deal that the Bush forty one Justice Department cut with
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: the Congressional Black Caucus. South Carolina had a lot more
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: swing districts in it back in the day and had
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: its share of Democratic These were the munch swinginess. But creating,
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: you know, sort of packing a lot of African American
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: Democrats into the Claborate seat has created safer seats around it.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: So I do think it's one of those where and
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: it was really the real argument that the Indiana Republicans
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: were making. They weren't making some sort of they might look,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm not going to question somebody's motive.
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: Some of them may have been principled about it, others,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: but there was a pragmatic reason for it too. They
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: might actually make more congressional seats vulnerable, not fewer. Well.
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• 21:37
  Speaker 1: com use the code toodcast. The question I have in
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: all of these places where they've done this remap where
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: I do think they've made it least some places where
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: if Democrats found the right candidate, now, maybe it's too
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: late in this cycle by twenty eight day money. I
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: just wouldn't write off this. There's this brat assumption in
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: legacy media that the all of the voting rights it is. Look,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: this is not good for African American representation in the
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: South in Congress at the moment but I think this
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: is not going It's sort of one of those when
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: when everybody actually sees the numbers and realizes you may
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: have to shift your messaging a little bit, you may
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: have to shift your candidate recruitment a little bit. But
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: I think you're going to see in some of these
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: states more competition in some of these places. I think,
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: not everywhere, somewhere. But of course, the real representation problem
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: with Congress is the it needs to be right sized
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: with the country. But I'm not going to go down
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: that rabbit hole. It's one of those Maybe your listeners
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: can start creating me uncapped the House as a drinking game.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: How many episodes in a row can I can? I
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: talk about it? But the real question isn't simply who
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: abuses this system more aggressively. The deeper question is why
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: do both parties seem so unwilling to rethink a system
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: where manipulating a handful of district lines can fundamentally distort
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: national representation In the first place, That's a reform question,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: and increasingly Democrats seem less comfortable asking reform questions than
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: preservation once and that may be the real identity crisis
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: facing the party, not whether Democrats are too progressive or
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: too moderate, not whether they need younger leaders or better messaging,
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: but whether the party is slowly transformed from a reform
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: movement into a preservation movement. And honestly, once you start
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: looking at the current American political landscape through that lens,
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: a bunch of things suddenly make a bit more sense.
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: Because the redistricting wars are not really about maps, they're
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: about incentives. Think about what the current system actually requires.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: A country of more than three hundred and forty million
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: people still electing only forty five members of the House
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: of Representatives. I gave you another shot, the exact same
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: number it added when the country's population was barely a
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: third of its size. So our congressional districts are massive,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: they're less personal, less local, more abstract. And then you
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: put that in a stew of hyperpartisan primaries rewarding ideological
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: intensity over broad representation. Then we layer in modern data analytics,
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: polarized media ecosystems, and we've nationalized all of our politics,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: and you end up with a system where drawing a
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: handful of district lines can dramatically alter the balance of
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: power in Washington. Right, the fact that you can change
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: six seats alters the powers kind of that's that's a problem.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: And yet most political debate stops at who's abusing this
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: system more aggressively. That's not reform thinking, that's preservation thinking.
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: A reformer asks why are the incentives broken? To begin with?
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: And for most of modern American history twentieth century forward,
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party actually did ask reform questions. Franklin Roosevelt's
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Democrats sought to reform capitalism. After economic collapse post Watergate,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: Democrats positioned themselves as reformers of government ethics and executive accountability.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: The new Democrats of the nineties promised modernization and reinvention.
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama's coalition was fueled by reform language as well
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: opposition to the Iraq War, changing Washington, rebuilding trust, updating institutions,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: essentially bringing the government into the twenty first century. Now,
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: obviously those movements were ideologically different from each other, but
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: they shared a common premise the system was failing ordinary
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: Americans and needed structural change. But over the last decade
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: something shifted, and in part it's Trump right, Democrats sound
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: less like the party seeking to redesign institutions, and they're
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: more like a party trying to defend institutional legitimacy itself. Now,
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: some of this transformation is simply understandable Donald Trump. The
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: Trump errors pushed Democrats into becoming defenders of democratic norms, institutions,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: election courts, alliances, procedural stability, constitutional guardrails. It's a very
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: rational response to Trump. Please, it's what we need. Still
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: what we need. But politically for the Democratic Party brand wise,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: there was a trade off party that once defined itself
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: through reform, where every new Democratic presidency was bringing a
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: new movement with them. That stopped with Joe Biden because
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden ran on preservation, and that becomes dangerous at
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: a moment when public trust in the institutions that you're
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: trying to preserve is collapsing. Almost everywhere Congress, media, universities.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: During COVID, it was public health officials, corporate leadership, both
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: political parties, and once voters lose trust and institutions, generally,
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: the party most associated with defending those institutions eventually has
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: to absorb the frustration with them. That's the trap that
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Democrats increasingly find themselves in, and that's in some ways
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: it animates these divides, right because I do think the
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: leadership is I think at times thinking about like, look
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: we've got to bring some rationality of things, so we
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: just need to get stability, very rational thing to do.
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Others in the progressive movement are going Jesus crime and
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: look he's now made it worse. We really got to
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: hurry up and do this bigger change. But it doesn't
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: come across as change. It just comes across the reactionary politics.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: And even when Democrats are right about this on the
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: substance and about the Republican abuses, their response sounds reactive
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: rather than transformational. Right, protect maps or protect the norms,
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: protect the procedures, protect the institutions. But what is the
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: larger reform vision? That's the question voters increasingly seem to
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: be asking. And there's another warning sign here that I
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: honestly think both parties, but especially Democrats, are underestimating, and
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: that is why is there a rise of independence? Why
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: is there a rise? People need to ask this question
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: more of independent voters, why do you choose not to
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: identify with one the two major parties? And I think
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: one of the answers we're going to get is the
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: rise of voters registering with no party association at all,
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: that these are that these are voters who are trying
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: to send a message to the two parties and this
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: is their only form of protests that's available to them.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: I think too many political professionals misunderstand this rise of independence.
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: They think it just simply means that's part of the polarization.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: They're just turned off by it. And I think these
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: are people exhausted from institutions. So if you look at
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: this rise of new independent voters, and especially when you
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: see young people, why are they making decisions to not
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: register with either party? I mean, look at all the
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: institutions that failed them, beginning with COVID. So I think
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: registering as an independent as a protest against institutionalized partisanship.
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: And I actually should concern the Democrats more than even
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: more so than the Republicans, because of the Democrats truly
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: occupied the reform space in American politics, you would expect
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: at least some portion of those disaffected voters to migrate
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: towards the party as an agent of structural change. Many
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: of those folks are simply opting out a partisan identity altogether,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: and to me, that suggests something deeper is happening. It
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: suggests millions of voters increasingly see both parties not as
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: competing reform movements, but as competing management teams for a
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: political system they no longer trust. And this is where
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: I think the redistricting wars become much bigger than the mats,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: because they point toward what a genuine reform identity could
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: actually look like. Move democratic power closer to the public.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: That's the connective tissue. That's the north star. Not left
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: versus right, progressive versus moderate versus conservative, not institutional destruction
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: versus institutional defense. Democratic small the responsiveness politics built around
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: reducing the distance between institutions and the people they represent.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: That's how you rebuild trust is people seeing these institutions
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: being rebuilt their are built anew That means asking structural
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: questions open primaries, for instance, that's not just a procedural tweak.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: That's an attempt to force candidates compete for a broader
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: public support instead of only appealing to the most ideologically
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: intense voters inside party primaries. Expanding the House of Representatives
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: is another example. Drink the House was capped in nineteen
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: twenty nine, when the country was dramatically smaller and much
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: less diverse. Now, congressional districts are so large the representation
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: itself feels abstract and nationalized. People don't know who their
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: congressmen are is anymore. Now, a larger house isn't going
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: to magically fix polarization, but it would reduce the concentration
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: of political power and make representation feel more local and responsive. Again,
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: that same logic applies to nonpartisan redistricting commissions, congressional modernization,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: and reforms designed to make government feel less distant and
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: less procedural. And I know none of this is sexy
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: enough for some people. I've just been in some rooms
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: where people they're looking for the great individual. You will
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: hope to fix this system. One person can make a
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: house from collapsing. Okay, we have an infrastructure problem. And
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: these ideas are not ideological in the traditional sense. They
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: are structural. They are rooted in a very old American
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: small d democratic instinct. Institutions survive only if the public
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: continues believing they are responsive, accountable, and close enough to
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: ordinary life to deserve trust. And right now, millions of
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Americans no longer believe that to be the case for
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: each political party, and that's why I think the democratic
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: parties problem may not ultimately be ideological at all. It
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: may be existential because the party that once asked how
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: do we reform broken institutions increasingly is asking, and in
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: some ways Trump is baiting them to do this, how
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: do we protect institutions from collapse? There's a whole bunch
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: of people on the left that wanted to see these
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: institutions collapse that maybe not the same ones that Trump,
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: but some of them. Those are not the same missions
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: for a party, and the redissericting wars to me exposed
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: that tension perfectly. Democrats are correct to object to the
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: partisan map manipulation, but if their answer stops at preserving
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: the existing structure, rather than asking how do we redesign
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: a failing, small D democratic system itself, then they risk
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: becoming something reform movements often become if they stay in
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: power long enough, custodians of a system voters no longer trust,
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: and in American politics, parties that become too closely associated
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: with maintaining a distrusted system eventually discover something dangerous. Voters
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: stop hearing them as agents have change, no matter how
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: urgent their warnings about the alternative may be. So look,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: I know some of this is to some of you
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: is repetitive. But you know, the one thing I've learned
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: you can't just say something than once. And there are
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: different moments where I'm trying to use the new moment
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: to reinforce the argument, the larger argument that I hope
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: people come away with. Here. We've got a lot of issues,
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: but small D democratic reform, and the opening is there.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: And this is why I think the Democratic Party not
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: being the party change in reform that needs that. In theory,
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: was the identity they always strove for. I'm not saying
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: they always had it, but they always strove for it,
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: which you would expect from the liberal party, right. The
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Conservative Party, by definition in theory is the one that's
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: supposed to be the protector of the institutions. So we're
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: sort of got discombobulated by Trump. The question is, did
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: it make Democrats so take their eye off their old balls? There? No,
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: I made myself laugh and I did not. I have
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: no idea why I was going, but essentially taking their
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: eye off the ball of what they used to be.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: All Right, the musk Altman trial has become something far
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: bigger than a billionaire grudge match. It's turned into a
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: public autopsy of the values, motives, and personalities behind the
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: AI revolution itself. And if you're wondering why the public
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: feels skeptical about AI saving humanity, I think this trial
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: is basically exhibit a think about what we've heard under
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: oath over the last few days. Ilia should Skiver, not
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: a critic from the outside, but one of the actual
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: architects of the modern AI and open AI's former chief scientists,
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: testified that Sam Altman demonstrated what he described as a
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: quote consistent pattern of lyne undermineing executives and pitting people
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: against each other. Internally, the former seat Mira Muradi, described
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: an atmosphere of chaos where executives were hearing different stories
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: from the same CEO depending on who was in the room.
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: Even Microsoft's current CEO, Satya Nadella, whose company has poured
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: tens of billions of dollars into open AI, testify that
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the infamous twenty twenty three boardroom coup the temporarily ousted
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: Altman was quote amateur city. He admitted that even Microsoft
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: never got a straight answer about why Altman was fired
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: in the first place, and then there are the internal
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: documents now surfacing in discovery. Private notes from open ai
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: president Greg Brockman reportedly included lines like financially, what will
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: it take me to get a billion dollars? Another internal
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: note acknowledge that publicly presenting open ai is fully committed
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: to a nonprofit structure, while privately discussing a future for
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: profit pivot was quote a lie. Meanwhile, Mosque is accusing
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Altman of effectively stealing a nonprofit built to protect humanity
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: and turning into a trillion dollar corporate empire. And what's
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: Altman's response? That Musk himself tried to seize control years
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: ago and become hostile when he couldn't get it. So
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: there's a ton of tech ego here and we're like,
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: you two are going to design the technology for the
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: rest of us. Great, we know there's money, there's pettiness,
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: courtroom theater, but see, this is the issue underneath all
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: of that is something much more important. Trust. We spend
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: a lot of time talking about AI alignment, whether the
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: machines will align with human values, but what this trials
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: is exposing is something arguably more immediate. What if the
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: humans running the AI revolution aren't aligned with each other
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: or even with the public. Because here's the problem. The
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: average American already feels burned by the last generation of technology.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Search engines became polluted with ads and algorithmic gaming. Social
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: media promised connection and delivered polarization, loneliness, and rage. Online platforms,
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: at once felt consumer friendly, increasingly feel manipulative and extractive.
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: Gone on Amazon lately, there's all these before you get
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: to the product you're searching for. So when the same
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: ecosystem now says trust us with AI, skepticism starts to
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: feel less paranoid and poor rational. This episode of the
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  Speaker 1: candy at you. This is this is some sugar. It's
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: all twenty twenty eight stuff. And I've been in and
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: around a bunch of people who are thinking about running
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: for president, who've done it before, who've helped you know,
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: people run before. So I thought I do. I'm actually
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: going to do two top five lists on the Democratic
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: side of the aisle because there's that many candidates, and
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: I want to split it into two separate fields. Field
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: one are candidates that have never run for president before.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to I want to give you my
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: current top five who are most likely, in my view,
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: most likely could get the nomination. I'm not saying they should. Okay.
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: You know, my friend over at the Bullwark, Jonathan Last,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: wrote a piece about Graham Platner, and people thought he
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: was endorsing Grand Platner for president. He was not endorsing
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: Grand Platner for president. He was just laying out, don't
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: underestimate somebody Graham Platner or somebody like him who connects
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: with people in twenty twenty six could easily, you know,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: show up and become a bull in the China shop
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: in the primary and shock the world. Right, It's not
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: the craziest thought. It was funny to me, how it.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: You know, Look, I love my friends at the bull work,
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: and they get a little too reactionary and resistancy sometimes,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: but that's sometimes in the you know, that's there's still
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: a lot of really smart stuff that they do every
• 41:23
  Speaker 1: day in their newsletters and all these things. And I
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: thought the Grand Platinum Point was a really shrewd point
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: by Jonathan and I'm gonna get to that in a minute.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: It actually inspired this. So my first list of top
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: five is top five who've never run for president before
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: who I think right now are best position to potentially
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: get the nomination. And then the other one is top
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: five candidates who have run before who are best positioned
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: to get the nomination. And again, just because I rank
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: you number one doesn't mean that's who I want or
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: I believe well I think should be. It's just simply
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: my political analysis in this moment where I think I
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: think I know where things stand. Okay, So getting those
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: caveats out of the way, But before I get to
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: my lists, I want to remind you of an interesting
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: statistic about democratic presidents starting in nineteen sixty and I'm
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: just going to go through this history lesson because then
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: you can absorb these top five lists well with a
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: little more strategicy in your head when you listen to him.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: John Kennedy wins to the President's in sixties, first time
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: he ever ran for president. Sixty four is the reelect
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: sitting vice president that there was no primary, so the
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: Johnson thing rules out. Humphrey's a nominee in sixty eight.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: He ran for president in sixty Democrats lose McGovern First
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: time he ran was in seventy two. He lost card.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: First time he ran was seventy six, and he won,
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: loses reelection Mondale. It's hard to say. It was the
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: first time he ran since he was the sitting vice president,
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: so it's he never technically ran for president before, so
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: you put him in. First time he runs, he gets
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: the nomination, but he loses. Michael Ducacas. First time he runs,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: he wins the nomination. Nineteen ninety two, Bill Clinton, first
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: time he runs, he wins the nomination. Two thousand, Al Gore.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: That was actually the second time he ran. He ran
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: in eighty eight. In two thousand and he gets the nomination.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: He loses. Two thousand and four. First time John Kerrey
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: ran wins the nomination, He loses two thousand and eight.
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama first time nomination wins twenty sixteen. Hillary Clinton
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: second time gets nomination, loses twenty twenty. Joe Biden third
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: time it's the nomination wins twenty twenty four. Kamala Harris
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: technically second time, yes, convoluted way, but she had run once.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: Didn't get it in theory, essentially got it kind of
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: sort of second time. Did you pick up on something there? Kennedy, Carter, Clinton, Obama.
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: Up until Joe Biden, the previous four successful Democratic presidential
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: nominees won the presidency the first time they ever ran
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: for president, the only one since nineteen six the only
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: ones since FDR an FDR technically first time he ran
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: for president. Now he was the way vice president of the
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: way conventions worked. I guess you could say, with technically
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: on the ticket so and is loss so, but even
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: you could even throw FDR in there. Joe Biden did
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: something that hadn't hadn't been done in the Democratic side,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: and I think over one hundred years, which is when
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: the presidency the second time they ran for president. I'm
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: just saying on the Democratic side, we can get in there.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: There's some the Republican rules are slightly different. But I
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: say this in that I'd rather be I in my assumption,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: in my you know, if you were to do your
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: financial handicapping, it's more likely, you know, if put it
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: this way, if you if you matched up, will the
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: Democratic nominee be somebody who's never run for president before
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight or who did run for president before
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. I'd rather be on the had never
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: run before. And my guess is that that should price
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: at the moment like fifty eight to forty two, fifty
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: eight cents to forty two cents if you were playing
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: the Coushi game, or I guess that's you know, but
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: it would be I would be somewhere in the I
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: think there's a better greater than fifty to fifty chance.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: You're just going to have more candidates who didn't run
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: before run. You'll have fewer candidates running that have run before.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: So I throw that I just wanted to give you
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: that little history lesson so that you can absorb these
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: lists a little bit better. So my right now five
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: most likely candidates who've never run for president before. So
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: it perhaps I'm going to name people that have never run,
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: which means I'm going to update this list as we
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: go over now. And then in my number five slot
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: is I'm going to call it twenty twenty six TBD.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: The point being is there is going to be a
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: major candidate for president that fits one of the following
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: two criteria. One is they ran in twenty twenty six
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: and captured the imagination because they won, won in a
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: unique way, did something we hadn't seen before. Think Better
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: or Rourke twenty eighteen. He didn't even win, but his
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: run was so impressive it made people think, hey, maybe
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: that guy ought to run for president. So he jumped
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: in and was like a front runner for about three days.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Somebody's going to be in that is that Grand Platiner.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: I'm more skeptical of that. I don't think the Democrats
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: are going to go down a Platiner road, you know,
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: suddenly go down that road. And he's still got a
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: tough race to win. But maybe Rob saying if he
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: wins the governorship in Iowa, would he suddenly you know,
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: when you see what he does at his rallies, Rob saying,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: gets everybody at his rallies, he does this interesting thing
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: he raises. He he does these town halls and he
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: wants to emphasize how diverse, politically diverse his coalition is.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: And they'll say, how many of you are are are
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: Republicans here for the you know, coming to see me?
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: People raise their hands. Great. He goes, let's clap and
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: does the same to Independence, the same to Democrats. And
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: he goes and he goes, let's start out with something
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: I think we all can agree on, and he says,
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: in America the Beautiful one of the best tunes we
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: got going on here. It's anybody know how to sing?
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: All right, get us started, And he just gets everybody
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: to sing America the Beautiful. And you can sit here
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: and say, oh that's shticky, participate and then tell me
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: whether it's shticky. It He did it in this room
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: of very cynical people that I was in, and it
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: didn't feel sticky, and yet it did. At the start
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: I thought, oh, you know, my eyes were going to
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: begin to roll, and it just clicked. So the point is,
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: you don't know, could be Talla Rica could be Stephen Colbert,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: right that the second he's you know, this is his
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: you know, swan Song month, and then all of a sudden,
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: you know he's you know, pivoting something. You know. The
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: point is in my five slot right now is TBD,
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: because it's going to be somebody none of us are
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: talking about. It's quite possibly Mallory mcmorrow's another one i'd
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: put in there is a nominee in this certain place.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: So so number five for me is the cop out
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: is twenty twenty six TBD. It is somebody who sort
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: of comes out of nowhere this year and becomes this
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: sort of sticky person kind of the way. Remember how
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Intriguedlks were about Fetterman on the left. Now it's the
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: right that's obsessed with Fetterment in a positive way these days.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: But remember early on there was a lot of talk
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: with maybe Fetterman ought to run for president anyway. Let
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: me just realight, So that's in my five side. In
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: my four slot at this point, I'm going to put
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro. He's raising a ton of money. I know
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: there's some question, you know, how are Jewish Democrats going
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: to do in a Democratic primary? I'm there's going to
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: be three or four Jewish Democrats running. I kind of
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: think that it's just because there's going to be multiple
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Jewish Democrats running, well, the subject is going to be
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: brought up. I think it gets I think this becomes
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: the story people think is going to be a story
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: that isn't. Or maybe I'm just being wishful thinking there.
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: But you got Pritzker, Shapiro, rom Emmanuel all are going
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: to be running. But right now, that's why I'm I
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: think Shapiro put him in the four slot. I think
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: he's sort of structurally has thought about this that matters.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton was planning his ninety two presidential
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: campaign in nineteen eighty two, you know, and that frankly
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: that that that's a you know, those candidates do better,
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: do better than you think. In the three slot for
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: me is is Gavin news. Look, he's had a he
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: had a great twenty twenty five. In to some corners
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party, He's going to be seen as
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: the only guy that was able to successfully push back
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: at the jerry mandery. That's going to matter to some
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: voters and it gives him something. I the reason I'm
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: not putting him in the one slot is I just
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: think the California gubernatorial campaign has not served him well.
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: It is not people nobody is running on. Isn't everything
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: going great? That's not great for the Gavin Newsom record
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: that he's got to start to have to sell when
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: he starts running for president about why you, Okay, you
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: were in charge of America's large estate, but did you
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: do a good job. So I think the fact that
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: this campaign is, you know, whether it's the nobody's running
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: on the Gavin's Newsome slate. So I think that that's
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: why I put him at three. But I can't sit
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: here and say he has built a huge online army.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: He has built a huge online following, So I think
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: that he's done quite a bit. Number two for me
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: right now is Wes Moore. I know he's technically said,
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm not running for president and you know,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: but he's been parted those statements. He seems to leave
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: himself just enough wiggle room. And for a guy who's
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: not thinking about running for president, he does show up
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: at every place you should be showing up, whether it's
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, whether it's certain spots. So and he's another
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: one that I just think structurally is you know he's
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: going to be where he's going to run a very
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: competent campaign, but number one right now, because I think
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: you know, I'm I'm you know, if you're asked made
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: a bet and the choice is sort of somebody from
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: the pragmatic wing of the party like Wes Moore or Joshapiro,
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: or somebody from the more resistance or progressive wing of
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: the party Gavin Newsom or my number one person right
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: over here, AOSI I'm not even sure she runs. In fact,
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: I think if you actually track her carefully, she seems
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: to be getting to know the state of New York
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: in a lot of detail, and has even said, you
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: know the fact that when she gets asked about running
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: about twenty twenty eight, she's the one that offers up.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of ways she can exert influence. It
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: feels like she's almost trying to steer people away from
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: the idea. But I don't think if she decides to run,
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: I think she starts, you know, she will inherit the Bernie,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: a lot of the Bernie support, and that's a big
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: base to start from, and nobody else of these newcomers.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: I just said will be close to her early in
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: this campaign. I'm not saying one of them doesn't end
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: up eventually become the candidate surpass them, but they don't
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: start out. She's going to start out, you know, in
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: the top tier, which for a first time candidate, you know,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: and I'm not even sure Gavin does. They may financially
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: start out in the quote unquote top tier, and Gavin
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: in the polling may show up in the top tier.
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: But Alsi's going to have a little bit of both
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: on that. But she may not run. In fact, I
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: think it's more likely she runs her Senate. She's behaving
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: as somebody that's thinking about not being in a hurry
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: and not being one hundred percent sure this is the
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: moment for her politics. And I think, you know, one
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: thing that I've come to admire is that I do
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: feel like she is she picks her spots really well.
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: But so there you go, AOC, Wes Moore, Gavin Newsom,
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro, TBD, we'll call it, Stephen Colbert, Platner, Graham.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: But the twenty twenty six wild card, that's my five
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: most likely who have never run. Now I'm gonna go
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: quicker here in the top five who have run who
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: right now I think are in the best position to
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: be the nominee. And let's start at five. At five,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: I'm putting Amy klobe Shark. I think if she becomes governor,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: I think she's tempted. James Carville has this great line
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: about running for president. It's kind of like sex. You
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: don't just do it once unless you succeed the first time.
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: And so I'm pretty confident if Amy Klobishar wins the governorship,
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: she's going to run for president again. I'm less confidence
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty eight because it's, you know, tough to
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: run for a new office and then immediately turn around
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: and start running for president. But she's so established in
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: the state she could pull that off. But I only
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: think she does it if she really thinks she can win,
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: and I'm not sure she's got the path. There was
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: arguably a better path for her last time. I'm not
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: sure it's there this time. But governor's a better title
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: to run for president front than senator. So she's coming again.
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: Number four on my list is Corey Booker. He's clearly
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: wants to run again, and you know he is somebody
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: that I never understood why he didn't get more traction.
• 56:44
  Speaker 1: I thought I thought he did a better job of
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: running on Biden's message than Biden did. He was a
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: better version of the Joe Biden sort of candidacy with
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: a you know, with like slightly more change rhetoric to it.
• 57:01
  Speaker 1: But I thought he was sort of he would at times,
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: he would do a better job defending Biden's stances on
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: certain things during those debates than Biden himself. But it
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: never connected. You know, people in and around Booker have
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: a theory that you know, that he was just seen
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: as you know, you know, because he wasn't historic. They
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: weren't ready to make history twice. I don't know. I
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: don't know why Corey Booker didn't do as I thought
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: as far as a political performer, athlete. Now, maybe maybe
• 57:37
  Speaker 1: it was behind the scenes, Maybe it was the blocking
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: and tackling. Maybe it was a campaign structure that wasn't
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: as good as it could have been. He didn't raise
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: the money. I think that he thought he was going
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: to raise and that maybe maybe the donor community just
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: viewed him as sort of, well, we've already done Obama,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: let's do this, or they were more namored with Pete
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: or they were more namored with some other candidates. So
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: I think Booker just feels like it was a campaign
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: that was unfinished. So he's a guy that I definitely
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: think is going to run again, and frankly not twenty
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: eight win. So and I'd put him in the four slot,
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: number three. Uh, Pete Boodagic, He's another one that his
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: look he was you could argue, I think if you
• 58:19
  Speaker 1: take COVID away, I'm not as convinced. You know, there's
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: no COVID, it's not happening. If there wasn't this like
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: quick consolidation, there's another world where that it is. It
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: is Bernie and Pete that are the final two going
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: to the convention. This is a world without COVID. I
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: will always believe that it was COVID plus Kai Cliburn
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: that sort of and then everybody just decided to drop
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: consolidate and it was this stop burning movement essentially, and
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: the Biden you know Biden folks, it was Cliburn in
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: some ways in the institutionalists of the Democratic Party that
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: sort of rallied this because they knew it was going
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: to go all the way to the convention and they
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: knew the only candidate that all the younger ones would
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: drop out for was Biden, but Pete was going to
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: be the you know, I think if we the the
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: what if? For me, I think it's Pete's versus Bernie
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: going into that twenty convention without COVID. My guess is
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: Pete narrowly wins it just because there would have been
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: a pretty strong anti Bernie faction in the party that
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: would have would have would have succeeded. That's been my
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: theory in that. But I think anyway, so look, Pete's
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: going to have there's the old Obama team is still
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: sort of the Pete inner circle, and they'll be formidable.
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: Number two in the list is Bernie Sammers. I don't
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: know if he's running, but if he runs, he's a
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: front runner, and it's very possible that, you know, this
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: is the one that breaks through. I think we all
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: should be skeptical that somehow the party's going to go
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: to an eighty year old, right, That seems nonsensical. It
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: seems nonsensical. But if AOC doesn't run, I don't know
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: if Bernie is going to want to hand the Batonda
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: anybody else. I think he's willing to set this one
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: out for her. I don't know if he is for Rocanna.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he is for JB. Pritzker. Kritzker
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: is somebody that is in four point five on my list,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: by the way, I think he's I think he's going
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: to be a pretty formidable candidate. I do, but he
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: would I think he's more formidable if there's no AOC
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: and no Bernie, because I think he wants to claim
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: that lane, and I think he can buy that lane
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: if he had to. But number one on my list
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: of those that have run before, who who's I think
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: best position to get the nomination. It's Kamala Harris. I
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: think she's got more institutional support than people realize. I
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: think the I think the African American community is I
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: think certainly in the Democratic Party would stick by her
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: at the start, and if she could show strength, it
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: becomes I think there's a lot of women in general
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: feel like she was She didn't get her real shot,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: and she deserves a fresh shot at this. I think
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: her I told you so messaging might be quite effective
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: in a primary. Right. She made all of these predictions
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: about Trump, and they all look very prescient today when
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: you replay them. So tactically, her campaign didn't age well
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: at all, but some of the lines she did are
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: aging really well. Right, some of the attack lines on Trump,
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: her debate performances are going to are aging well. So
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: it's another reason I wanted to do this. Lest I
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: think people are underestimating the strength of Kamala Harrison a
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: presidential primary big time. I'm not saying there isn't a
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: faction that of donors who definitely want to turn the
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: page do something new. Anybody's associate with, and I personally,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: I still think it's more likely to be somebody who
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: didn't run before this gonna be a nominate, But underestimate
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris said your own per ask Chuck, all Right,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: we're gonna just it's been a long episode, so I'm
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: going to do four questions here, So we'll start with
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Joe b. He goes first time riding in Big Fan,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: going back to your NBC days, and the podcast has
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: been a great companion during commutes and even a recent
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: hospital stay. Well, I'm glad to know you're out of
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: the hospital. After reading The Power Broker, I couldn't help
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: but notice parallels between Robert Moses' tactics and some of
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: Trump's approach to power. You've mentioned we maybe do for
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: a reform era. What do you see as today's equivalent
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: of the good government groups that helped drive reform in
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: the early twentieth century. Thank you, Joe B. You know,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: that's an interesting condundrum because I think that's it goes
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: to sort of the point I was making at the
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: top of this podcast about the Democratic Party's identity. I
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: kind of think they, you know, I think there needs
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: to be some new reform groups. I think we need.
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: I think we don't trust the old right. You can't
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: go back and hope that Common Cause and the NAACP
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: can pick up the mantle here, the ACLU or the
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: Southern Poverty Law Center, Right, they're fairly or unfairly I
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: think these and especially among millennials and Gen Z and
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: particularly whether they're they're highly engaged members of that generation
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: or low engagement voters of that generation. I think those
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: groups mean nothing to them, and so I think you're
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: better off going with new ones, right. I'm and and
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: I kind of think we you know, I know there's
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: some fledgling groups because they've contacted me about uncapping the House.
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: I think it's called no cap and I want to
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: engage with them. I've just been overextended, so I haven't
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: been able to give them the give them my attention
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 1: the way I want. I'm doing some other political reform
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: efforts that I do that I am engaged in open primaries,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: Unite America. There's a few of these tactical groups that
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: are trying to get at the infrastructure, and there's more
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: partisan leading ones, you know, but there's some different ones. Look,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: I think within each party there's some different think tanks
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: that are trying to, you know, say hey, maybe we
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: should try a project twenty twenty nine, or maybe we
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: should try so like you have the the former Harry
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: Reid staffer Adam Gentilsen, who I interviewed here search Light Institute.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: He wants to be I think, a place to you know,
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: help Democrats talk to more voters that they don't normally
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: talk to. I don't know if that's a reform movement.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: That's a reform movement inside the Democratic Party. You know,
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: you do have the Pete Peterson Foundation who's trying to
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: get people more engaged on the debt, and they're trying
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: to do some different things it, but I I go,
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: there aren't. I think the problem is, you know, these
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: some of these institutions atrophied a little bit. Some of
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: them went super Trump resistance and then sort of lost
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: their own way a little bit. Some of them just
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: got are overwhelmed with having to deal with Trump, Trump
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: reactors and stuff. See the acou that they're not really
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: focused on sort of reform stuff. So I kind of
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: think that, you know, I would you know, I'm waiting
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: to see the presidential candidate. Maybe it's an independent candidate
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: that sort of runs on a reform movement and runs
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: on an almost on an specific idea. When Andrew Yang
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: was sort of trying to differentiate his candidacy, we're talking
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: about universal basic income. Well, I don't think that issue
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: ended up with the traction. It was a big idea,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: and it was a reform response. It was response to
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 1: what's coming with AI and stuff. But it's you know,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: he sort of in some ways organized his candidacy around
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: the idea. That's what I think could be an effective
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: reform movement is to run run on that. And Citizens
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: United is started as a campaign finance group. I feel
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: like they've drifted a bit into the more partisan lane
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit. I think we are due for a
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: for a truly either by cross partisan, which is the
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: phrasing I like to use better now than bipartisan, because
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: there are plenty of independence who fit into the cross
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: partisan mindset. We need a cross partisan reform entity on
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: money right. I think right now you have some of
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: the older campaign finance reform groups are all sort of
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: more associated with the left. But I think there's there
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: there is real support on the right now for this,
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: and I think you in some ways need to rebrand
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: those movements too. Anyway, it's a good question. You a
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: bit challenging, Joe, I'll admit I want to think that
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: through even more. Next question comes from Mike, who's also
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: a Tony Kornheiser listener. I can tell by the way
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: he said it gave me a little lichies ory. He goes, Hey,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: I enjoy your conversations with Chris Elizabe, but I was
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: struck by what felt like a tension in a recent episode.
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 1: Oh tension. On one hand, you said Democrats shouldn't betray
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: their priciples when elections. On the other, you discussed the
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: need to move away from certain positions to appeal to
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: swing voters. How do you draw that line when is
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: it a strategic adjustment versus compromising core values. I'm genuinely
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: curious how you think about that balance. I don't think
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: you compromise your values, but I think you accept the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: premise that some things, some change is slower than others.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: And I go back to a phrase, I like, I'm
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: probably over using incrementalism. I think we you know, I
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: think when you're trying to make big chains, incrementalism sounds
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: too small ball on this or that. But you know
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: this is sort of your classic tortoise hair right if
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: you if you, if you approach takes those security I
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: would argue, we did that via incrementalism and started just
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: with widows, right, you know, women over sixty five, and
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 1: then slowly it expanded. It was you. Had you come
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: out and said we were going to go from no
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: social security to what it is today, that program would
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: have been extraordinarily unpopular. Might not have ever made. It
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: might not have ever But if you want to test
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: out a premise, you start small and you move incrementally,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: and suddenly you can make a big change. I mean
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: what we did with poverty amongst seniors was transformational and
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: it was necessary. So so it's about what issues are
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: you going to emphasize and which ones aren't you going
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: to emphasize? Which ones are in your under your purview.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: You don't have to when you're running the country as president.
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: You don't have to engage in every cultural issue. And
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: I can't wait for the and and for whatever reasons,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: presidents can't bring themselves to do this. But someday a
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: president's going to say, I got a strong opinion about that,
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: but I don't want to insert myself into this because
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: whatever I say is going to get overinterpreted. So it's
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: a no win and I don't want to do It's
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: not fair to insert right, But every president feels like,
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: well it makes me more human. Right, I have an
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: opinion too, But in some ways it actually, you know
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: you can. I think that you know you could do it.
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: It's in some ways it's a better way to appeal
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: to some in the middle. So that's the line. It's
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: to me, it's values, and you don't it in its emphasis.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: It's not about throwing entities under the bus. It's not
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: sister soldiers, you know, we talk about that such a
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: Soldier moment, which was a Bill Clinton thing in nineteen
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: ninety two where he was and he sort of picked
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: on one artist. That isn't the way I would do it.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: That means it wasn't effective, but that isn't the way
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: you'd probably wish you wouldn't do it. Next question comes
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 1: from Mark h Allen, Texas, and he's hopeful that this
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: is number five that he has made it into the
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: five timers club. Hey goes love to hear in your
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: conversation with Kevin Williamson. It felt like a true crossover
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: episode for me. I recently heard the argument that socially
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: liberal fiscally conservative voters actually are the smallest political group,
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: which surprised me since it feels common in my own circles. Ah,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: it's your bubble, right brother. Anyway? Is that kind of
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: platform a political dead end or could it actually serve
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: as a bridge between parties and help reset some of
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: today's polarization? Mark h Alan Texas. I look, I think
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: it could serve as a bridge. I really want to
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: see I think the old look, we're not going to
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 1: get rid of the two parties. I would like to
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: create the conditions to make it easier for third and
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 1: fourth parties and independent candidates to compete in the free
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: market marketplace of ideas. But we are not a free
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 1: market system when it comes to the two ideas, and
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: we're not. We're dooptly and I am more. The movements
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: I'm involved in are about opening ballots up and opening
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: primaries up. Right. I am biased towards voters. I think
• 1:11:24
  Speaker 1: more voters should be involved in more races. Hard stop
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: call me biased. I am. I have this bias towards
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: the small de democracy. Anyway, I really hope there's an
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: independent candidate that basically goes that. That is this candidate
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: socially liberal, you know, in some form of this fiscally
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: conservative incrementalism sort of like let's you know, little Eisenhower
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: ish little maybe it's a military veteran something like that,
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: to sort of recalibrate the other two parties. The only
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 1: way you're going to get the two parties reform themselves
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: is that they're threatened by a third. That's the lesson
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: I've always taken away from the pro campaign is that
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: the a independent campaign doesn't have to win to be successful.
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: Ross Boro didn't have to win, and he was quite successful.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: I think it's at a minimum a model I like
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: to see attempted in twenty eight So Mark, is that
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: you are you going to be that candidate? Maybe it's
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: a maybe, it's it's Kevin's got to smile more? Right,
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: we could, we could, We could talk Kevin Williams and
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: he's a new old young father right. Next question, Last question.
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: I recently saw the idea of turning a company like
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: Spirit Airlines into a co op, and it made me
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: think about how communities use co ops to fill gaps
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: when corporations or government fall short. Do you think co
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: ops could be a viable solution to some of today's
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: economic challenges or are there limits to how far that
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: model can go? And if not, what alternatives do you
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: see for addressing these guys apps. Thanks Sarah, kay Lansing, Michigan. Oh, Sarah,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: I love me a good co op. I think, in fact,
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: my favorite football team is, in theory a co op.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: Right Green Bay Packers owned by the community. I think
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: there are certain things I think the answer on local
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: news is co ops, local co ops where it's owned
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: by the community. It was one of the ideas spitballed
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: that I think Karri Swisher and I spitballed this during
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: a news Fair episode. The community of Washington is still
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: today feels like it owns the Washington Post. So let
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: the community own it, community owned board and stuff like this.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: I think for certain institutions that are like essentially private
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: institutions that are really important to the public world, which
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: is local news organizations, think as a co op. And
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: it could be that that's the better model for an
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: MPR is that. I don't think it works everywhere, but
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: I think it can work in media. I think it.
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: I think it absolutely should be how the sports world works,
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: right it. It really bugs me. And obviously, being a
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: Packer fan, I can stand on ceremony on this. I
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: don't think the value, you know, the owner's value, you know,
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: the sports owner team is only valuable because of the
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: league and the city and the value of that league
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: in city. Right it is. It is There's only so
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: much you can do as an individual team. So and
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: in some ways the city matters more to the to
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: the value of the team in time than anything else.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: The community. I mean, you know, I I know that
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: you know we could have Manute, we could we could
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: still be angry at the GM we Packer fans can
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: get angry at our gm we packer fans can get
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: angry at the president. Right, there's still people to get
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: mad at if you don't like how the team's been run.
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: But I'm a non football stuff. You know, the community
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: auto ought to be in charge of the teams too,
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 1: So I guess it's it's the private institutions that are
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: part of the civic world, right, professional sports or that
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: news organizations. I think could be that. I'm not sure,
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: you know, I actually think a co op could work
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: with an airline because an airline, right, you need it's
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: not fully a private entity. I mean, obviously each airline
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: is a private entity, but there they can't function without government, right.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: They can't function without air traffic controllers. They can't function
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: without airports, which are run by local governments. So I
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: think it actually could work in the airline space. But
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: to me, that's the space that it works best. It's
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: the space where it's a private enterprise, where nonprofit isn't
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: quite the answer. You don't know if you want a
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: single individual or private equity doing it right. You want
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: sort of this feeling that they're looking out for the
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: best interest of the community and That's where I think
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: co op starts to make the most sense. It's not
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: for every entity, but I could argue that airlines would
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: fit my definition. Curious your feedback on that answer, Sarah,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: So I'd love to hear back from you. Hey, thanks
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: everybody for listening. I will put a pin in this episode.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: Good news is we'll be coming back to you in
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours. Don't forget to like and subscribe and
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: I'll see that