Latest / 3 and Out with John Middlekauff / 2026 NFL Kickoff: Patriots-Seahawks Predictions, Baker Mayfield gets PAID, Aaron Donald OUT for Week 1

Transcript

2026 NFL Kickoff: Patriots-Seahawks Predictions, Baker Mayfield gets PAID, Aaron Donald OUT for Week 1 · 3 and Out with John Middlekauff

0:01
Speaker 1: The Volume. What is going on, my people? How are
0:18
Speaker 1: we doing? John Middlecoff, Three and Out podcast. Hopefully you
0:22
Speaker 1: are doing well. The National Football League is back. We
0:26
Speaker 1: have a game tonight. We have a game tomorrow. Hallelujah.
0:31
Speaker 1: No more guessing, hypotheticals, theories of what's going to– put
0:38
Speaker 1: the ball down and play, baby. And we've got Seattle,
0:41
Speaker 1: New England, and then tomorrow on Netflix, obviously the 49ers
0:45
Speaker 1: and Rams. So we're going to talk a lot of
0:48
Speaker 1: football today. Baker Mayfield signed a contract extension. We'll do
0:51
Speaker 1: some mailbag questions at you on Middlecoff. Is the Instagram
0:54
Speaker 1: firing those DMs? Get your questions answered here on the show.
0:57
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill. Appreciate all you guys who
1:02
Speaker 1: have found me through Colin. You subscribe to 3 and Out,
1:04
Speaker 1: separate podcast. You'll never miss an episode. Fire on Netflix.
1:09
Speaker 1: We'll have a bunch of content there. Obviously during football season,
1:12
Speaker 1: hit the alert button, never miss a show. A bunch
1:15
Speaker 1: of content on the YouTube channel as well as football starts.
1:19
Speaker 1: So let's just dive in. I was in the car
1:21
Speaker 1: this morning running errands, and I heard Colin Coward's opening
1:25
Speaker 1: rant about football being back. and the importance of this
1:29
Speaker 1: sport in terms of what we all do. And now
1:33
Speaker 1: the media basically revolves around football season, and then the
1:36
Speaker 1: offseason is getting ready for football season with some big
1:40
Speaker 1: events sprinkled in. And I was thinking about, like, I
1:44
Speaker 1: feel fortunate enough to have grown up in an era
1:47
Speaker 1: without the internet and in a world that was completely
1:49
Speaker 1: different than the world we live in now. And I've
1:52
Speaker 1: always been a diehard sports guy. Obviously, I chose to
1:55
Speaker 1: do this for a living. And when I was a kid,
1:59
Speaker 1: like football was not necessarily bigger than the other sports.
2:03
Speaker 1: Michael Jordan was bigger than any NFL athlete. Baseball was,
2:08
Speaker 1: I would say it was, it wasn't probably what it
2:11
Speaker 1: was in the 50s, 60s, and 70s, but it was massive.
2:15
Speaker 1: The World Series was huge. When the Yankees became a dynasty,
2:19
Speaker 1: like that was the equivalent of like the Chiefs or
2:21
Speaker 1: the Patriots. The home run race was, with everyone doing
2:25
Speaker 1: the steroids was McGuire and Sosa, and then when Bonds
2:28
Speaker 1: did it, it was must-watch TV. And where we're at now,
2:33
Speaker 1: 25 years later, the gap between football, and I would
2:38
Speaker 1: include college football, which is clearly the number two sport
2:40
Speaker 1: in America, and everything else isn't even close. And the
2:45
Speaker 1: thing the NFL, and I would say college football has
2:48
Speaker 1: to a degree, It's got the best of both worlds.
2:51
Speaker 1: In basketball, the Pablo Torre, Uncle Dennis, the scandal with
2:57
Speaker 1: the Clippers is as big of an NBA story as
2:59
Speaker 1: anything that happened on the court beside the Knicks. No
3:03
Speaker 1: one breaks down when the Houston Rockets play the Atlanta Hawks.
3:07
Speaker 1: I've said this forever about baseball. They play 162 games.
3:10
Speaker 1: If the Yankees win or lose today, it doesn't make
3:13
Speaker 1: or break their season. Honestly, it doesn't really matter. It
3:16
Speaker 1: has no impact big picture unless you have a major
3:20
Speaker 1: injury in the game where in football you get such
3:23
Speaker 1: a small number of games that in modern day society
3:27
Speaker 1: our attention spans have never been shorter I mean I
3:31
Speaker 1: don't know how often you do but I catch myself
3:33
Speaker 1: sometimes like John put down the fucking phone just be
3:37
Speaker 1: present in life just try to enjoy whatever you're doing
3:41
Speaker 1: no matter how mundane it may be just sit at
3:44
Speaker 1: breakfast by yourself you don't have to just scroll aimlessly
3:48
Speaker 1: right but we all do And those memes of like
3:53
Speaker 1: the people with all the newspapers back in the 20s
3:55
Speaker 1: or 30s on a bus or a train is now
3:59
Speaker 1: the phone. So you could argue we always did that,
4:01
Speaker 1: but there is definitely a difference in the way our
4:03
Speaker 1: brains are wired because of this phone. Hell, I see
4:06
Speaker 1: it when I just hand jack the phone that is
4:09
Speaker 1: completely off. Not even anything. The guy won't let go
4:12
Speaker 1: of it. I'm like, God, they got something in these things.
4:14
Speaker 1: I mean, it's powerful, and it's rewired our brains, and
4:18
Speaker 1: there's no going back, right, at least in the foreseeable future.
4:22
Speaker 1: And I do think football, with the impact of the
4:24
Speaker 1: importance of every single game, has this unique combination of, like,
4:30
Speaker 1: they got the drama off the field like all these
4:33
Speaker 1: other sports, and honestly, they got it more. I mean,
4:35
Speaker 1: in the last month, we had an owner go to
4:38
Speaker 1: a trailer park to try to get laid with a hooker.
4:41
Speaker 1: One of the star coaches in the league was in
4:43
Speaker 1: a car accident that no one knew about for like
4:45
Speaker 1: 15 days. The coach that led the AFC champions to
4:50
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl last year, Mike Vrabel, who is a,
4:54
Speaker 1: I would say, a prominent player on one of the
4:57
Speaker 1: biggest dynasties in NFL history, multiple-time Super Bowl champion, was
5:02
Speaker 1: basically caught red-handed in a relationship with a reporter where
5:05
Speaker 1: they were clearly banging for time. over half a decade,
5:08
Speaker 1: which again, I don't care. Do whatever you want, right?
5:12
Speaker 1: But like those are things that resonate with everybody. Those
5:15
Speaker 1: are the type stories, if they happen in your town,
5:18
Speaker 1: if they happen in your friend group, like those are
5:20
Speaker 1: the things that move the needle for human beings, like
5:22
Speaker 1: in real life, right? And then when you factor in
5:26
Speaker 1: when the games start and that's the most powerful thing
5:30
Speaker 1: that football has, everything else becomes white noise. Like ultimately
5:35
Speaker 1: on Saturday night, all the Lane Kiffin, all that drama.
5:40
Speaker 1: When the fucking ball was hiked and you watched LSU
5:43
Speaker 1: run around and you watched them play, you weren't thinking
5:45
Speaker 1: about Lane and hot yoga or doing this or doing that.
5:49
Speaker 1: You're just like, God damn, this team's incredible. Think about Michigan.
5:52
Speaker 1: Their head coach went with a butter knife to his
5:57
Speaker 1: assistant's house who he had been banging for a couple years,
6:00
Speaker 1: threatened to kill himself, was arrested. And Michigan played Western Michigan,
6:06
Speaker 1: and all we thought about was like, they're actually going
6:07
Speaker 1: to lose. And then obviously what happened at the end
6:10
Speaker 1: became the biggest story in all of football. And that's
6:13
Speaker 1: what the NFL has, is once the games start, we
6:17
Speaker 1: not only judge the star players, but the coaches are
6:20
Speaker 1: such big players in the reality television show that is
6:24
Speaker 1: the sport of football. And it's the easiest thing to follow.
6:28
Speaker 1: Because you don't have to, I've got to watch them
6:30
Speaker 1: again at night. I've got to watch them again at night.
6:31
Speaker 1: Or even in the NBA, you're playing three or four
6:33
Speaker 1: times a week. It's like a lot of people have
6:35
Speaker 1: real lives. But in football, you've just got to have
6:39
Speaker 1: three hours a week for your squad. And if you
6:42
Speaker 1: can make some more time to watch other games, great.
6:44
Speaker 1: But it's pretty easy to consume. It's pretty easy to follow.
6:50
Speaker 1: Which is ironic because it's by far the most complicated game.
6:54
Speaker 1: When you hear a quarterback or a defensive or offensive
6:56
Speaker 1: play caller start telling you the different coverages or the
7:00
Speaker 1: play call, it sounds like a foreign language. And I
7:04
Speaker 1: think if you would have told someone 30 years ago
7:08
Speaker 1: that in 2026 football would be by far the most
7:11
Speaker 1: popular sport, they would start their season on a Wednesday
7:15
Speaker 1: and that had become tradition with the Super Bowl champ
7:19
Speaker 1: to host the game. In the middle of the week.
7:22
Speaker 1: But it typically happened on Thursday. But the reason it's
7:24
Speaker 1: not happening on Thursday. Because there's another game going on.
7:28
Speaker 1: With two awesome teams. But that game is going on
7:30
Speaker 1: in Australia. And that game in Australia is actually taking place.
7:34
Speaker 1: Friday morning. You'd be like. What are you talking about?
7:40
Speaker 1: And now it doesn't even feel that abnormal. So I
7:44
Speaker 1: think the explosion of football, the popularity of the sport,
7:48
Speaker 1: we've talked about over the years all the different variables.
7:51
Speaker 1: We all know them. But no one can argue that
7:54
Speaker 1: when these games are on, for all the stuff that
7:57
Speaker 1: goes off the field, all the different people guessing and
8:01
Speaker 1: talking about who's going to win this, who's going to
8:02
Speaker 1: lose that, none of it matters once the ball's snapped.
8:05
Speaker 1: And there's just nothing like it, right? There's just nothing
8:08
Speaker 1: like it. We judge the quarterbacks. We judge the coaches.
8:11
Speaker 1: We judge the franchises. And it just emotionally moves us.
8:15
Speaker 1: So congrats to football because it's a little like life.
8:21
Speaker 1: When it's like the middle of summer, you're like, God,
8:23
Speaker 1: it feels so far away. I remember when just I
8:27
Speaker 1: think about this a lot now because having the baby
8:30
Speaker 1: who's not that far away from a year. And all
8:33
Speaker 1: of a sudden you're like, we're just looking. I thought
8:35
Speaker 1: you were tiny. And now you're almost nine months old.
8:38
Speaker 1: Like how fast does life go? and you start looking back,
8:41
Speaker 1: all of a sudden you get a little older. You're like, God,
8:43
Speaker 1: time flies, even though individual days might feel slow. Uh,
8:48
Speaker 1: the overall time, like I remember when training camps and
8:50
Speaker 1: guys just first reported and then boom, now we're hiking
8:54
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9:00
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9:09
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9:20
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9:24
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9:35
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10:27
Speaker 1: speaking of this game, this franchise, which was just sold,
10:33
Speaker 1: I saw Mike McDonald talking about the transition from And
10:37
Speaker 1: he's like, you know, John's dealt with it more than me.
10:39
Speaker 1: You know, I think the head coach is, the general
10:43
Speaker 1: manager is in more of an administrative role. So dealing
10:46
Speaker 1: with this new family coming in, I think I saw
10:49
Speaker 1: a list. They have a bunch of investors as well.
10:51
Speaker 1: They're the majority stakeholder. But this is a franchise now
10:55
Speaker 1: that has been, I would say over the course of
10:57
Speaker 1: the 21st century, you know, from Mike Holmgren, to the
11:01
Speaker 1: transition to Pete Carroll and John. And then once John,
11:04
Speaker 1: you know, they got Pete out and John really took
11:06
Speaker 1: over hired Mike. It's been a pretty consistent, good franchise.
11:09
Speaker 1: And definitely since Pete showed up, they, they have just
11:12
Speaker 1: been a high level operation and they, they are a team.
11:17
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be really good. I believe
11:19
Speaker 1: in this head coach. I believe in the mentality that
11:23
Speaker 1: this franchise has that, to me, is led by John,
11:26
Speaker 1: the type of players that they acquire, that they draft.
11:29
Speaker 1: There's just a violent nature, I would say, inherently to
11:33
Speaker 1: the way they have operated now for almost 15 years.
11:38
Speaker 1: And tonight, it's one of the rare places, you know,
11:41
Speaker 1: Kansas City is like this. Buffalo, we'll see in the
11:46
Speaker 1: new stadium, it used to be like this. I think Lambeau.
11:50
Speaker 1: I don't say Lambeau has an edge, but there's a
11:53
Speaker 1: collegiate aspect to it. There is something kind of just
11:57
Speaker 1: electric about this environment. Oregon, when it's rolling, I've never
12:03
Speaker 1: been there in terms of to a game, but Fresno
12:06
Speaker 1: State used to play there all the time. I remember
12:09
Speaker 1: hearing stories like you couldn't even talk to the guy
12:11
Speaker 1: standing next to you. People in the Pacific Northwest love football.
12:15
Speaker 1: Oregon Ducks and Seattle Seahawks. And I think tonight's a
12:19
Speaker 1: good example of I expect Seattle to win, and we'll
12:22
Speaker 1: get into the predictions here in a second. But if
12:25
Speaker 1: the game looks somewhat similar to last week, it's kind
12:28
Speaker 1: of a muscle flex. Because Colin and I talked about
12:31
Speaker 1: this a couple days ago, that if you just took
12:34
Speaker 1: the other two teams in the division, the 49ers and
12:37
Speaker 1: the Rams, if they had just won the Super Bowl,
12:39
Speaker 1: had gone 14-3, and brought back the nucleus of guys,
12:43
Speaker 1: their coach, their GM, the majority of the operation, I
12:46
Speaker 1: know they lost some players, that's football. Everyone would be
12:50
Speaker 1: picking them. This team gets to fly under the radar.
12:54
Speaker 1: I do believe it's a little bit of the market.
12:57
Speaker 1: I mean, Mike McDonald was just the first ever head
12:59
Speaker 1: coach who was also the defensive play caller in the
13:01
Speaker 1: history of the NFL. It happens a lot with these
13:04
Speaker 1: offensive guys, and they get all this credit, yet with
13:06
Speaker 1: the defensive guys, they just really don't. You almost get
13:09
Speaker 1: more credit as a defensive guy if you're like the
13:11
Speaker 1: CEO type, like Tomlin or... you know, kind of under
13:15
Speaker 1: that umbrella. Pete Carroll, you're like the grand poobah, the
13:20
Speaker 1: patriarch of the operation. But when you're the genius on defense,
13:25
Speaker 1: and maybe it's partly Mike's personality, but tonight's a big
13:30
Speaker 1: moment to be kind of show the NFL, like we
13:33
Speaker 1: are going nowhere. And Sam Darnold's going nowhere. I was
13:36
Speaker 1: listening to Albert Brewer. I think he's writing something on this,
13:38
Speaker 1: which it's probably out on Wednesday. I think Sam's been
13:43
Speaker 1: pretty open internally. I don't know how much he's talked
13:46
Speaker 1: about this publicly. He feels he played, because he didn't.
13:49
Speaker 1: He wasn't that good in the Super Bowl. If he was,
13:52
Speaker 1: that game could have easily been a 40-point blowout. If
13:56
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold had played like he had two weeks before
13:58
Speaker 1: against the Rams, against that Patriot team, that would have
14:01
Speaker 1: been one of the uglier Super Bowls in the history
14:03
Speaker 1: of the league. And you could argue, just in terms
14:06
Speaker 1: of the eye test, it was not a great watch.
14:08
Speaker 1: Because Seattle put their foot on their throat and just
14:11
Speaker 1: kept stomping them. And I think this is a big moment.
14:15
Speaker 1: There's still a lot of doubters. I think sometimes that
14:18
Speaker 1: perception when we think something about you and it's over
14:22
Speaker 1: a multiple year period, it's really hard to ever shake that.
14:25
Speaker 1: And I think Sam Darnold now has two years of evidence,
14:29
Speaker 1: but it's like, I didn't play that well in the
14:30
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. You know, he had some games last year.
14:33
Speaker 1: I think he led the league in turnovers. It's easy
14:35
Speaker 1: to nitpick him. It's like, I don't know. I've watched
14:36
Speaker 1: him for two years. He's pretty fucking good. Is he Mahomes, Brady,
14:39
Speaker 1: or Peyton Manning? No. But it's like, would you want
14:43
Speaker 1: him as a starting quarterback of your team over, I
14:47
Speaker 1: don't know, 20-plus guys? Without a doubt. And if you
14:51
Speaker 1: had to replace all the guys 6 through 12 with him,
14:55
Speaker 1: would those teams be that much worse off? At this
14:58
Speaker 1: point in time, I don't think so. I'm a believer.
15:01
Speaker 1: I like betting on people. And every time you watch
15:05
Speaker 1: this guy interviewed, the way he conducts himself, the way
15:07
Speaker 1: he handles himself, I'm just blown away. And I think
15:11
Speaker 1: that's why he's able. Alex Smith had a lot of this.
15:16
Speaker 1: Alex Smith was a joke for years. Do you know
15:18
Speaker 1: what turned out? It was the Niners with Mike Nolan
15:21
Speaker 1: and Mike Singletary, and just the operation was an embarrassment. Now,
15:25
Speaker 1: Alex didn't have the physical, definitely not the arm strength
15:29
Speaker 1: of Sam Darnold, could not spin it like that. But
15:32
Speaker 1: once he had people that knew what they were doing
15:34
Speaker 1: around him, he became a really solid player. And it
15:37
Speaker 1: took a while, but you forgot about those first four
15:39
Speaker 1: or five years. At one point in time in his career,
15:42
Speaker 1: the candlestick chanted for David Carr. How would that have
15:47
Speaker 1: aged in 2016 when he was winning double digits every
15:50
Speaker 1: single year with the Chiefs? Even the year before his
15:53
Speaker 1: leg snapped in Washington, I think they were like 7-2,
15:56
Speaker 1: he looked awesome. So I think tonight's a big night
16:00
Speaker 1: for Seattle as just... We ain't going anywhere. And I
16:04
Speaker 1: think on the flip side, I don't expect this game.
16:06
Speaker 1: I think it might just be a bad matchup. I
16:09
Speaker 1: still got a lot of questions with New England. They're
16:13
Speaker 1: exposed to running backs out, like the left tackle. I
16:15
Speaker 1: know he was injured last year, but this is not
16:19
Speaker 1: an easy matchup. This is a team with dogs up front.
16:23
Speaker 1: And we saw last year that guy just struggled in
16:26
Speaker 1: a one-on-one situation against to handle elite pass rushers at
16:29
Speaker 1: the end of the season. You'd be like, well, this
16:30
Speaker 1: is neat. I don't know. There were a lot of
16:32
Speaker 1: people that questioned him. Some guys go really high at tackle,
16:35
Speaker 1: like Joe Alt, Lane Johnson, Trent Williams. We haven't had
16:39
Speaker 1: that many of late, guys that go in the top
16:42
Speaker 1: three or four picks. But usually it's like, this guy's
16:44
Speaker 1: a dude. This guy's un-elite. A lot of people thought,
16:48
Speaker 1: Will Campbell, is he going to play guard? Is he
16:50
Speaker 1: an elite player? And clearly the Patriots, either they thought
16:54
Speaker 1: he was the best guy on their board or had
16:55
Speaker 1: the upside to be elite. We've got to find out.
16:58
Speaker 1: And some people have backed, I think Andrew Whitworth and
17:01
Speaker 1: some other offensive line guys have said, he'll be fine.
17:06
Speaker 1: His game is going to be all about technique. like
17:09
Speaker 1: Jonathan Ogden or Jason Peters or Trent Williams can misstep,
17:15
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. They are more talented and truly like
17:20
Speaker 1: dancing grizzly bears. This guy is not. So he has
17:24
Speaker 1: to be like, this guy is one of the best
17:25
Speaker 1: technicians in the league. Can he become that? You know,
17:28
Speaker 1: Jason Kelsey, Jason Kelsey didn't weigh 330 pounds. Jason Kelsey
17:32
Speaker 1: was an undersized center. You know how he became a
17:36
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame level player? One, with grit, toughness, and
17:40
Speaker 1: just instincts. He was a talent in terms of his mind.
17:45
Speaker 1: But speed, technique, using his angles. And it's different playing
17:50
Speaker 1: at center where you have help with the guards than tackle,
17:52
Speaker 1: but not everyone's the elite of the elite. Puka Nakua
17:57
Speaker 1: is not as physically gifted as Jamar Chase. But you
18:00
Speaker 1: put their numbers next to each other, it's like A
18:03
Speaker 1: lot of things come in different shapes and sizes in football, which, again,
18:06
Speaker 1: gets back to what I talked about at the start.
18:08
Speaker 1: It's what makes football great. You've got fifth-round picks becoming stars.
18:11
Speaker 1: You've got number one overall picks becoming stars. You've got
18:15
Speaker 1: coaches that play in the league becoming stars. You've got
18:17
Speaker 1: guys that never played a down-to-football star head coaches. So
18:21
Speaker 1: I think tonight is a big night for New England.
18:23
Speaker 1: I'm not picking them to make the playoffs, not because
18:25
Speaker 1: I don't think they're going to be a good team.
18:26
Speaker 1: I expect them to be in that 9-10 win range
18:29
Speaker 1: with a bunch of other teams. And I'm just giving
18:31
Speaker 1: another team the nod. But if you tell me that
18:34
Speaker 1: they go into Seattle and win, even though their schedule
18:38
Speaker 1: is more difficult, I'll be like, I'm probably wrong on that.
18:40
Speaker 1: This is probably an 11-12 win team. I mean, it
18:44
Speaker 1: would be an enormous win. And it's different. But remember
18:50
Speaker 1: several years back when the Lions beat the Chiefs on
18:53
Speaker 1: opening night? It's like, okay, the Lions are just kind of,
18:55
Speaker 1: this is real. And I think a lot of people,
18:58
Speaker 1: you go back to last year, they had the schedule,
19:01
Speaker 1: how they looked in the playoffs, and then what happened
19:05
Speaker 1: once because Denver had a backup quarterback who I know
19:08
Speaker 1: Sean Payton thinks good. I don't know how good he is.
19:11
Speaker 1: Tough position to play in in a win snowstorm. But still,
19:16
Speaker 1: it's like they don't win if Bo Nix is playing quarterback.
19:20
Speaker 1: So I'm fascinated to watch New England. That's why... I
19:24
Speaker 1: wanted to make some, we'll do this today and tomorrow
19:27
Speaker 1: leading into these two games, a little prediction segment brought
19:30
Speaker 1: to you by my friends at Polymarket. I'll tell you this,
19:34
Speaker 1: the Polymarket app, I've used a lot of these different apps.
19:37
Speaker 1: The Polymarket app, and I'm not just saying this because
19:39
Speaker 1: they are compensating our podcast. It is elite. I'm a
19:43
Speaker 1: big believer. I don't care what you do, what your
19:46
Speaker 1: app is, whether it's Amazon, whether it's a grocery store,
19:51
Speaker 1: whether it's a pizza joint. If your app is elite,
19:55
Speaker 1: I can buy into it. If it's user-friendly, if it's
19:57
Speaker 1: easy to figure out, Polymark's app is fantastic. And for
20:01
Speaker 1: some of you, if you've never used it, I highly
20:03
Speaker 1: recommend downloading it. But everything's in percentage, right? You're playing predictions,
20:07
Speaker 1: you're playing It's not that much different than what you're doing.
20:10
Speaker 1: I promise you that. For example, if you just want
20:14
Speaker 1: to take Seattle to win, 62% of people think Seattle's
20:18
Speaker 1: going to win. If you put $ 100 on that, it
20:20
Speaker 1: pays $ 157 total. So you'd win $ 57. I think Seattle.
20:27
Speaker 1: I don't know if the game looks exactly like last year.
20:29
Speaker 1: I don't expect. It's week one. Josh is going to
20:32
Speaker 1: have some tricks up his sleeve. Mike Vrabel is going
20:34
Speaker 1: to have some tricks up his sleeve. I definitely believe
20:36
Speaker 1: it's a little closer. But to me, this is a
20:39
Speaker 1: 10-point game by Seattle. So went to Polymarket, scrolled around
20:42
Speaker 1: the app, found Seattle minus 3.5. You either choose yes
20:47
Speaker 1: or no. I'm choosing yes. And $ 100 on yes pays $ 206.
20:53
Speaker 1: So you can win $ 106. I'm just using that math, $ 100, easy.
20:57
Speaker 1: Maybe you bet less, maybe you bet more. I like
21:00
Speaker 1: Seattle minus 3.5. That's an auto yes for me. The
21:04
Speaker 1: other is the total. The total is 44.5. To me,
21:09
Speaker 1: this game feels like week one, adrenaline through the roof,
21:14
Speaker 1: the crowd going absolutely bananas. Could see it look a
21:18
Speaker 1: little weird, I would say, for the first quarter, quarter
21:21
Speaker 1: and a half. The other thing is, think of who
21:23
Speaker 1: the two head coaches are. Mike McDonald, best defensive coordinator,
21:27
Speaker 1: I would say, definitely head coach, maybe ever, that actually
21:31
Speaker 1: calls the plays well. Most defensive coordinators, once they become
21:33
Speaker 1: head coaches, they become like the C.E.O., And, you know,
21:37
Speaker 1: Vrabel is a defensive guy. I know he's, again, a
21:39
Speaker 1: CEO guy, but, like, defense is a baby. And it's why,
21:43
Speaker 1: for the most part, like, when they've had good players,
21:44
Speaker 1: his defense has been pretty good. I mean, there's a
21:47
Speaker 1: reason he won a lot of games with Ryan Tannehill, right?
21:50
Speaker 1: He's not like this guy. Drake May, by far, is
21:52
Speaker 1: the best quarterback he's ever had. And, to me, I
21:57
Speaker 1: could see, like, 23-15, 21-13 kind of range, uh, That
22:05
Speaker 1: is less than $ 44. 5. So if you look on the prediction, 49%
22:10
Speaker 1: say that this game is not going to go over $ 44. 5,
22:14
Speaker 1: and $ 100 pays $ 186. So you can win $ 186. Very easy. Again,
22:21
Speaker 1: I'm not just saying this. I've used a lot of
22:23
Speaker 1: apps in my life. I'm sure many of you have.
22:25
Speaker 1: Check out the app. I've enjoyed it, and I'm going
22:27
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24:16
Speaker 1: Valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions apply. One
24:24
Speaker 1: thing hit me today, I mean, one of the big
24:25
Speaker 1: stories of the day is that Aaron Donald, who, let's
24:28
Speaker 1: face it, missed the entire training camp. Who knows? I mean,
24:32
Speaker 1: we'll find more when he talks. Like, did he have
24:35
Speaker 1: planned on coming back? Was it something that he truly
24:38
Speaker 1: didn't know? Was it truly like, listen, I'm going to
24:41
Speaker 1: come back. I'll train on my own. I'm not going
24:43
Speaker 1: to training camp with half the team of guys that
24:46
Speaker 1: I'll never see again. Just I'll see you week one.
24:49
Speaker 1: The problem is week one is a 17-hour flight. And
24:54
Speaker 1: the Rams are going the day before. You're flying in
24:58
Speaker 1: a 60-hour period, 35 hours. Like, I'm 35. I don't
25:02
Speaker 1: blame him. Like, unless you were going to Australia for
25:06
Speaker 1: vacation or New Zealand to go hang out there for
25:08
Speaker 1: a while, avoiding a plane flight of that length, I
25:12
Speaker 1: don't care how great the seats are, is something all
25:15
Speaker 1: of us would do. And I do wonder if part
25:17
Speaker 1: of the conversation when he was signed of like, I'm
25:20
Speaker 1: not going to be part of this game. And Sean
25:22
Speaker 1: McVay's like, that's fine. You don't need to come with us.
25:26
Speaker 1: And let's face it, if Aaron Donald had not come back,
25:29
Speaker 1: I don't think we would discuss this team that differently. Football,
25:32
Speaker 1: this isn't like, you know, Michael Jordan just showed up,
25:34
Speaker 1: even though this guy kind of was like a Michael
25:36
Speaker 1: Jordan of defense in his prime. It's a little different
25:38
Speaker 1: at 35. To me, there's still some questions. I know
25:41
Speaker 1: physically he looks great, but how your body holds up,
25:45
Speaker 1: how you recover from, you know, kind of, bruises and
25:49
Speaker 1: injuries throughout the course of a season. How many plays
25:52
Speaker 1: is he going to get? Is he ready to just
25:53
Speaker 1: hit the ground running? How they're going to handle it
25:54
Speaker 1: is still yet to be known. He's inactive this week.
25:57
Speaker 1: I would imagine week two, which I think they play
25:59
Speaker 1: on Monday Night Football. This is just out of memory.
26:02
Speaker 1: The Giants, if I remember correctly. Will he be active?
26:05
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, we'll have to just play this.
26:07
Speaker 1: It's like a fluid situation. I would bet he would be, but...
26:12
Speaker 1: You know, it's pretty big news just because like Aaron Donald,
26:15
Speaker 1: Miles Garrett, week one, Australia. No, no Aaron Donald, not
26:18
Speaker 1: even making the trip. So he's one of their inactives
26:21
Speaker 1: this week. You know, there's been a lot of conversation.
26:25
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about it here, about these international
26:27
Speaker 1: games and about growing or dying. And, you know, you're
26:32
Speaker 1: either trying to make more money. You're never trying to
26:34
Speaker 1: stay stagnant. That's just how people in business think, whether
26:36
Speaker 1: it drives you nuts or not. and the NFL is
26:39
Speaker 1: clearly quadrupling down internationally. The London thing is not that crazy.
26:46
Speaker 1: I've never been to London, but it's what? It's a
26:49
Speaker 1: five-hour flight from New York City to London? Five-and-a-half-hour flight?
26:52
Speaker 1: Essentially Seattle or Los Angeles to New York City or Boston?
26:56
Speaker 1: It's a cross-country flight. So on the Eastern Seaboard, it's
26:58
Speaker 1: not that crazy. Now, once you start going to Germany, Brazil,
27:03
Speaker 1: depending on where you're coming from, Mexico City, obviously Australia.
27:10
Speaker 1: I do think these events, if the 49ers win on
27:15
Speaker 1: Thursday night, Friday morning their time in Australia, I think
27:20
Speaker 1: we better get very used to some of these crazy destinations.
27:24
Speaker 1: And my guess will be, and I'm saying this, whoever
27:27
Speaker 1: wins or loses this game, I would expect, because Australia
27:31
Speaker 1: loves sports, it's a really cool place, would not shock
27:35
Speaker 1: me if Australia becomes something they do every single year,
27:38
Speaker 1: year one. But the 49ers and the Rams, this has
27:41
Speaker 1: been a story that a million people have talked about, right?
27:43
Speaker 1: The way they're handling the travel. 49ers went out way early,
27:47
Speaker 1: the Rams are going right before. And some people think
27:50
Speaker 1: a lot of it has to do with recovering after
27:52
Speaker 1: the fact, how the 49ers, it'll be more difficult for
27:55
Speaker 1: them to get back their bodies in tune to like
27:58
Speaker 1: Pacific Standard Time in America, where the Rams, it's like
28:01
Speaker 1: they never even got on Australia time. I personally think
28:04
Speaker 1: it's pretty crazy to go that far the day before.
28:09
Speaker 1: But again, it'll be a major talking point whoever wins
28:12
Speaker 1: and loses. If the 49ers win though, Everyone moving forward,
28:17
Speaker 1: these crazy flights, whether you're going to Brazil, which I
28:19
Speaker 1: think I remember someone with the Chiefs told me was
28:21
Speaker 1: like 12 hours. You know, Germany, which if you're a
28:24
Speaker 1: West Coast or Midwest team could be farther. And obviously Australia.
28:29
Speaker 1: Every team in the league is going to go way early.
28:31
Speaker 1: They will just it's football is a copycat sport. They
28:34
Speaker 1: copy your draft philosophies. They copy your plays. They copy
28:38
Speaker 1: your hiring practices. Whatever works, people just copy you. And
28:43
Speaker 1: it's been like that my entire life, and it doesn't
28:46
Speaker 1: look like it's going to change anytime soon. It's like,
28:49
Speaker 1: Saban hired you, you became a head coach. If Shanahan
28:52
Speaker 1: or McVay hired you, you became a head coach. Hell,
28:54
Speaker 1: even after Belichick's guys stopped working, people kept hiring them.
28:58
Speaker 1: It's like, well, they're having success. Pull the trigger. You know,
29:01
Speaker 1: and if the 49ers win this game, because... These, like Brazil,
29:07
Speaker 1: Mexico City, Australia, I would put Germany in there. I
29:09
Speaker 1: think they're playing a game this year in France. It's
29:12
Speaker 1: essentially like a barnstorming tour, right? It's like a circus
29:16
Speaker 1: going around. And it's trying to get there, promote it,
29:20
Speaker 1: market it, like a fight. Now, the thing is, if
29:23
Speaker 1: both teams aren't showing up, there's not a huge buildup
29:27
Speaker 1: beside the day the game happens. But the 49ers, their
29:31
Speaker 1: media people, Grant Cohen, anyone that follows him online... He's
29:35
Speaker 1: been going to these AFL games, which is not rugby.
29:40
Speaker 1: it's not soccer, it's somewhere in the middle, and making
29:43
Speaker 1: polarizing statements about their star players and going on Good
29:47
Speaker 1: Morning Australia, and it's kind of become a thing. Obviously,
29:50
Speaker 1: the players got a day off over there. They went
29:53
Speaker 1: to different games. They've gone to different events. They have
29:55
Speaker 1: basically been the marketing arm for the NFL. I would
30:00
Speaker 1: expect this game to be a heavy 49er presence just
30:03
Speaker 1: because for the last week, if you're just indifferent over there,
30:06
Speaker 1: a lot of people are just like, ah, these guys
30:07
Speaker 1: seem cool. They're just around. And they've been a huge
30:09
Speaker 1: part of the community now for like a week. And
30:13
Speaker 1: if you're the NFL and this works, well, everyone's just
30:16
Speaker 1: going to copy them. And then moving forward, if you
30:18
Speaker 1: get a game next year in Australia... You'll have both
30:21
Speaker 1: teams go there and just be free marketing for the league.
30:24
Speaker 1: No one is going to copy, especially if the Rams
30:27
Speaker 1: were to not look great or in the second half
30:29
Speaker 1: be heavy-legged or look exhausted. People are going to blame
30:34
Speaker 1: it on the travel, which I don't blame them. The
30:37
Speaker 1: longest flight I've ever made is New Zealand. I was 12,
30:39
Speaker 1: 13 years old. I do not remember it at all
30:42
Speaker 1: besides it being really, really long. My dad was already
30:45
Speaker 1: over there. I went by myself. And I remember I
30:49
Speaker 1: had a CD case with, like, Hootie and the Blowfish.
30:53
Speaker 1: I had Boyz II Men. I had quite, I think,
30:55
Speaker 1: a Smashing Pumpkins CD in, like, Snoop Dogg doggie style.
31:00
Speaker 1: And a CD player. I mean, that's all I had.
31:03
Speaker 1: I don't even think I had a book, a magazine.
31:05
Speaker 1: I was 12. I can't imagine I had much money
31:08
Speaker 1: besides maybe 20 bucks or 40 bucks my mom gave me,
31:11
Speaker 1: which back then would have gone a long way. I
31:16
Speaker 1: just know that the time zone is going to be
31:20
Speaker 1: something that can really work in the NFL's benefit if
31:23
Speaker 1: the 49ers win because they can double down on this
31:25
Speaker 1: and everyone will copy them. The other big story today,
31:29
Speaker 1: I think Baker Mayfield deserves a lot of credit because 40,
31:35
Speaker 1: 45 days ago when training camp started and he wasn't
31:39
Speaker 1: getting offered a contract that he thought was worth it,
31:42
Speaker 1: he kind of went on a long rant, which I
31:43
Speaker 1: said at the time, listen, I respect it. So often
31:46
Speaker 1: these quarterbacks, because they're agent and they're marketing team. Like,
31:51
Speaker 1: have you ever heard like a Matt Stafford interview? There
31:53
Speaker 1: is no way he talks like that when the cameras
31:56
Speaker 1: are off and he's just having a beer with his buddies.
31:58
Speaker 1: No fucking chance. But he's become so robotic. about, and
32:02
Speaker 1: I don't even blame them, Mahomes, a lot of these
32:04
Speaker 1: guys are terrible interviews. They're not good because it's not
32:08
Speaker 1: worth it for them to say anything. Aaron Rodgers is
32:12
Speaker 1: an outlier, not only because of the subjects he'll talk about,
32:14
Speaker 1: just because at this point in time, he does not
32:16
Speaker 1: give a shit about anything. And he can just speak
32:19
Speaker 1: whether you agree or disagree. That's how normal humans speak.
32:21
Speaker 1: They just say their opinions. If you're just having dinner
32:23
Speaker 1: with a couple dudes, having a cocktail, you're just going
32:27
Speaker 1: to hear some crazy things. And that's kind of the
32:29
Speaker 1: way the real world works. And you watch Baker Mayfield
32:32
Speaker 1: and you're like, you know what? I've always appreciated his authenticity.
32:36
Speaker 1: And let's face it, some of us are immature. I
32:38
Speaker 1: know I really was when I was 21, 22, 23
32:39
Speaker 1: years old. I can't imagine being in a position where
32:44
Speaker 1: you're the face of the franchise, not everyone's ready to
32:46
Speaker 1: handle it. Not everyone can just hit the ground running
32:49
Speaker 1: and be unfazed by the pressure and everything that comes
32:52
Speaker 1: along with it, especially if, like, I'm not quite good
32:55
Speaker 1: enough yet. But I know this. After he went on
33:00
Speaker 1: that rant, he basically ended it with, like, I'm not
33:02
Speaker 1: talking about this anymore. We're on to football, we're focused,
33:05
Speaker 1: and I'm going to be a great teammate, and I'm
33:06
Speaker 1: going to grind. And clearly over the course of August
33:09
Speaker 1: leading into early September... He has not only proven, I'm
33:13
Speaker 1: sure in practice, has been really, really good to make
33:17
Speaker 1: them feel confident, and then just the way his character
33:20
Speaker 1: and operated as a team leader, as the face of
33:23
Speaker 1: the franchise, clearly checked all those boxes for Jason Light.
33:27
Speaker 1: Because if you sign a contract, they gave him a three-year,
33:29
Speaker 1: $ 165 million contract extension. I think if you factor in
33:33
Speaker 1: this year, I saw Florio wrote it averages out to
33:35
Speaker 1: like $ 54, $ 55 million a year. And we'll see the
33:38
Speaker 1: guaranteed money. But the reality is if he's just solid,
33:41
Speaker 1: he's going to see every penny. Why? Because quarterbacks, unless
33:44
Speaker 1: you're Tua or Kyler and become a disaster, you see
33:47
Speaker 1: every penny of the contract. Like the guaranteed money has
33:49
Speaker 1: never affected Dak. Why? He plays out every contract. Jared Goff,
33:53
Speaker 1: all these guys, they see it all. And Baker just
33:56
Speaker 1: was a pro. And I think sometimes just be a pro,
33:59
Speaker 1: it's easy to say. It almost feels hollow when you
34:02
Speaker 1: say that out loud. I think what that means is
34:06
Speaker 1: just handle shit. To me, that's being a professional. It's
34:10
Speaker 1: like you never know what's going to happen. Some days
34:14
Speaker 1: things are going to piss you off. You can't just
34:16
Speaker 1: go into the tank. You can't just quit. This is
34:19
Speaker 1: the real world. And you've got to keep your head
34:21
Speaker 1: up and you've got to keep moving forward because a
34:23
Speaker 1: lot of people are depending on you and are still
34:25
Speaker 1: paying you. You'd like more money, but it's not like
34:27
Speaker 1: you're making $ 10. You're making $ 27, $ 30 million, and he did.
34:32
Speaker 1: And clearly by the end of training camp, they went,
34:35
Speaker 1: you know what? There's got to be some sort of
34:37
Speaker 1: middle ground here. We're not going to give you a
34:39
Speaker 1: six-year contract, but we're going to get to a number
34:42
Speaker 1: that's going to be pretty difficult for you to say
34:44
Speaker 1: no because we want you here. We appreciate you. We
34:48
Speaker 1: love what you represent in this franchise, and we think
34:50
Speaker 1: you're a good player. And Baker knows, like, I'm going
34:53
Speaker 1: to prove it to you where you're not going to
34:55
Speaker 1: be able to find better than me. And I can
34:57
Speaker 1: imagine throughout training camp, they're looking like, well, everyone's saying
35:00
Speaker 1: this quarterback, this quarterback, we're not going to be shitty
35:02
Speaker 1: enough to draft any of those guys. And the likelihood
35:05
Speaker 1: we see these guys hit or miss all the time,
35:06
Speaker 1: there's no guarantee that it's ever going to become that.
35:08
Speaker 1: And I also thought like, the Cleveland Browns have not
35:12
Speaker 1: had the opportunity to draft quarterbacks very high, very often.
35:17
Speaker 1: And several years ago in a draft with Lamar Jackson,
35:20
Speaker 1: Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, they chose Baker Mayfield. And By
35:26
Speaker 1: the end of his tenure there, essentially, at least I
35:29
Speaker 1: could be wrong on all the details. Some of you
35:30
Speaker 1: Browns fans might push back against this. They clearly leaned
35:34
Speaker 1: with Stefanski over Baker, which maybe at the time didn't
35:39
Speaker 1: feel that crazy. Here's the problem. Stefanski might be one
35:42
Speaker 1: of the worst quarterback evaluators in the history of the
35:45
Speaker 1: league that's also like viewed as a good offensive coach,
35:47
Speaker 1: which again, I can't even go that far because he
35:50
Speaker 1: had like a historically bad offense. And if you don't
35:52
Speaker 1: know quarterbacks, if you can't evaluate the quarterback, I can't
35:56
Speaker 1: take you seriously as a top flight offensive mind. It
36:00
Speaker 1: doesn't mean you can't miss on a quarterback, but he
36:03
Speaker 1: has now a long resume of like, I don't think
36:05
Speaker 1: this guy has any fucking clue. I mean, relative to
36:08
Speaker 1: everyone else in the league, I don't think he has
36:10
Speaker 1: a clue. And they chose him over Baker. And now
36:14
Speaker 1: Baker is at a place where Jason Light is considered,
36:17
Speaker 1: I don't know, top five general manager in the NFL.
36:21
Speaker 1: I mean, last year he'd won the division three straight
36:23
Speaker 1: years and like 50 or 46 of the 53 guys
36:26
Speaker 1: that made the roster were all draft picks. Like he's
36:28
Speaker 1: really good at his job. Does the coach survive? Time
36:32
Speaker 1: will tell. But Jason Light went, this guy's good enough
36:35
Speaker 1: to give a second contract extension to. If you want
36:39
Speaker 1: to say they got a little lucky, giving them the
36:41
Speaker 1: one-year $ 4 million to come compete with Kyle Trask, the
36:45
Speaker 1: quarterback from Florida, and then Baker beat him out, and
36:47
Speaker 1: the rest is history. But they invested in him once,
36:50
Speaker 1: and they've invested in him again. If you're a Browns fan,
36:52
Speaker 1: you're like, it wasn't that long ago we drafted this
36:55
Speaker 1: guy number one overall. Now he's someplace else signing his
36:58
Speaker 1: second big contract extension, and Deshaun Watson's the team captain
37:03
Speaker 1: on our team. How is this real life? So congrats
37:07
Speaker 1: to Baker. So true success story. I mean, Sam gets
37:11
Speaker 1: a lot of credit, and rightfully so. To me, Baker deserves,
37:16
Speaker 1: I mean, right there with him. One interesting story is
37:20
Speaker 1: this SEC versus LSU and how they might kick him out.
37:25
Speaker 1: I don't know about you guys, but I got in
37:27
Speaker 1: a lot of trouble as a kid. I just, if
37:30
Speaker 1: there was a button, I pushed it. If there was
37:32
Speaker 1: a line, I crossed it. And a lot of my
37:34
Speaker 1: friends were the same way. Not like I wasn't going
37:37
Speaker 1: to jail trouble, but I just found myself just in
37:42
Speaker 1: situations looking back that not ideal. That if I was
37:46
Speaker 1: my own parents, I would have been very, very angry.
37:49
Speaker 1: And I got in trouble. I wouldn't say I was
37:51
Speaker 1: like a troublemaker, but I definitely was a pain in
37:55
Speaker 1: the ass to parent. And every once in a while,
37:58
Speaker 1: you needed to come in to my room and fucking
38:01
Speaker 1: draw a line in the sand. And I had to
38:03
Speaker 1: be parented hard. I needed it. And I do think
38:07
Speaker 1: looking back, it's been very beneficial to my life. And
38:12
Speaker 1: I think sometimes when all you hear is yes, whether
38:15
Speaker 1: you're a star athlete, a star singer, a star coach,
38:18
Speaker 1: you can start kind of feeling yourself a little too much.
38:23
Speaker 1: And I think Belichick, let's face it, has battled this.
38:26
Speaker 1: You know, for 20 years, no one could really beat him.
38:29
Speaker 1: Even when he got in trouble, he still won. Most
38:32
Speaker 1: personnel moves he made just kind of worked. Everything he
38:35
Speaker 1: did kind of worked. Guys would leave. They would fail.
38:38
Speaker 1: He would keep winning. And look at him now. I mean,
38:40
Speaker 1: he's kind of turned into an embarrassment in North Carolina.
38:44
Speaker 1: You know, I think Lane is in the peak of
38:46
Speaker 1: his powers as a coach. Lane is really good. It's
38:50
Speaker 1: impossible to argue. But in the last decade, how many
38:53
Speaker 1: people have told him no? Ole Miss was on their
38:57
Speaker 1: hands and knees begging him to stay last year. Nick Saban,
39:00
Speaker 1: who fired him, the week of the national championship game,
39:05
Speaker 1: which they ended up losing, was kissing his ass on
39:09
Speaker 1: game day the other day. Kissing his ass. Jimmy Sexton,
39:14
Speaker 1: you know, if you're a major agent for coaches, there's
39:18
Speaker 1: usually a kingmaker. And when I worked for Andy Reid...
39:24
Speaker 1: It was Bob Lamont represented everyone under the Mike Holmgren tree.
39:31
Speaker 1: John Gruden Steve Mariucci and then as Andy started putting
39:35
Speaker 1: all these guys out the Ron Rivera's Harbaugh's I'm charming
39:39
Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure he had a lot of those guys
39:40
Speaker 1: as well but at the top of the food chain
39:43
Speaker 1: forever it was Mike Holmgren why because he was the
39:46
Speaker 1: kingmaker and forever with Jimmy Sexton and It was Nick Saban.
39:51
Speaker 1: Everyone under Nick Saban, regardless how much money you made,
39:55
Speaker 1: whether you're Kirby Smart or Sark or Dan Lanning or whoever, DeBoer,
40:02
Speaker 1: Nick came first. Well, then Nick retired. Mike Holmgren retired.
40:06
Speaker 1: So someone bumps up into that spot who essentially becomes
40:10
Speaker 1: client number one. If you were a manager in Hollywood,
40:13
Speaker 1: if you had Leonardo DiCaprio or Denzel, it would be
40:16
Speaker 1: impossible to have a bigger client than that guy. And
40:18
Speaker 1: he would get the majority of your attention. And you
40:21
Speaker 1: do whatever it takes because that guy's your cash cow.
40:24
Speaker 1: And that to me is Lane Kiffin now. So you
40:28
Speaker 1: got from Jimmy Sexton to Nick Saban to Ole Miss
40:31
Speaker 1: to LSU, he doesn't hear no at all. His off-the-field
40:37
Speaker 1: antics are well-documented. Clearly, co-eds ain't saying no. Listen, Lane's
40:40
Speaker 1: a good-looking guy. And Lane's clearly got some game. Because,
40:44
Speaker 1: I mean, even his ex-wife, babe. Like, Lane's pulling left
40:49
Speaker 1: and right. And he's not even shy about it. Not
40:52
Speaker 1: shy about it at all. Well... I think it got
40:55
Speaker 1: to the point where it's like, I'm going to bring
40:57
Speaker 1: college players. It's like, Lane, you don't even need these guys. Well, yeah,
40:59
Speaker 1: I just want him. These guys were with me at
41:02
Speaker 1: Ole Miss. I want him here. Like, Lane, don't do this.
41:05
Speaker 1: No one was telling him that in his inner circle.
41:08
Speaker 1: And clearly he didn't listen if they did. And eventually
41:11
Speaker 1: someone said, you know what, Lane? We need to give
41:14
Speaker 1: you a little humble pie here. If you go through
41:17
Speaker 1: with this, we plan on kicking LSU out of the conference.
41:21
Speaker 1: Do I think the SEC wants to kick LSU out
41:23
Speaker 1: of the conference? Of course not. Because there are certain
41:26
Speaker 1: conferences like the Big Ten. I think Ohio State's bigger
41:30
Speaker 1: than everybody. Ohio State is just more important. If Ohio
41:35
Speaker 1: State ever went to the Big Ten like, yeah, we're
41:37
Speaker 1: thinking about going independent, it would be a problem. I
41:40
Speaker 1: would say if you look at some of the basketball
41:42
Speaker 1: conferences like the ACC or the Big 12, you kind
41:46
Speaker 1: of like having the Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, those brands.
41:50
Speaker 1: They're a little more important than some of the other brands.
41:53
Speaker 1: And the SEC, while it's the most profitable football conference,
41:58
Speaker 1: they're a little like the NFL. If you just look
42:02
Speaker 1: at the NFC, are the Eagles more important than the Packers?
42:06
Speaker 1: Are they more important than the 49ers? More important than
42:08
Speaker 1: the Cowboys? They all kind of work in unison to dominate.
42:13
Speaker 1: And that's kind of the SEC. Is Alabama bigger than LSU?
42:16
Speaker 1: Bigger than Georgia? Bigger than Texas? Even Texas is kind
42:20
Speaker 1: of the newcomer. You know, now Oklahoma, like they all
42:24
Speaker 1: kind of work together to print money for each other.
42:28
Speaker 1: And it's like, listen, Lane, we'll kick you out so
42:31
Speaker 1: fast your head will spin. We don't want to do it.
42:33
Speaker 1: And it's clearly a bluff, but like it's also kind
42:37
Speaker 1: of not. If you do this, there's going to be
42:39
Speaker 1: hell to pay. And we'll just grab Miami. We'll just
42:44
Speaker 1: fill that spot with you. You are not bigger in
42:46
Speaker 1: this conference because your university is not bigger in this
42:49
Speaker 1: conference because no university, Bama, Georgia, whatever, is bigger in
42:52
Speaker 1: this conference. We are unified here. That's how we print
42:56
Speaker 1: the money, which is now paying you $ 12 million a year.
42:59
Speaker 1: And I do believe for the first time in a long,
43:02
Speaker 1: long time, someone told Lane no around LSU to like,
43:07
Speaker 1: call off the dogs. You're not doing this. Because the
43:09
Speaker 1: last time really Lane heard no was when Saban retired
43:12
Speaker 1: and he desperately wanted the Alabama job. And they wouldn't
43:15
Speaker 1: even give him the time of day because everything he
43:17
Speaker 1: did when he was in Tuscaloosa, which is now just
43:19
Speaker 1: completely forgotten about by Saban, which no chance it actually is,
43:22
Speaker 1: but he's going to play the part when the cameras
43:23
Speaker 1: are on. You know, the underrated part about Saban for
43:27
Speaker 1: being like this hard-ass, maniacal general kind of can turn
43:32
Speaker 1: into a politician when the cameras are on, especially now.
43:35
Speaker 1: And maybe you get retired, you're 74, you don't have
43:39
Speaker 1: the energy to battle it. But like the Saban you
43:42
Speaker 1: see on TV is not really the Saban that we,
43:46
Speaker 1: whether you, I always liked Bama that I fell in
43:48
Speaker 1: love with, like Roof of the Program. It's like a
43:50
Speaker 1: different guy. And it's a little bit more like putting
43:53
Speaker 1: on a show. You know, the cameras are off, he's
43:55
Speaker 1: completely different. Like to me, Herbstreet and McAfee are just
43:59
Speaker 1: two examples on that show that just, that's just how
44:01
Speaker 1: they act. Whether the cameras are on or off, like
44:03
Speaker 1: that's just who they've been. I mean, Pat McAfee once
44:06
Speaker 1: got arrested when he was a punter for being wasted
44:08
Speaker 1: like jumping in a river. You know, it's like, Some guy,
44:12
Speaker 1: Saban to me is a different person, which again, he
44:15
Speaker 1: doesn't want to fight. He can't just be a hard-ass 24-7, 365.
44:19
Speaker 1: But bro, you couldn't fucking stand Lane. And the Florida State,
44:24
Speaker 1: I had the game on mute. Jack was crying. We
44:28
Speaker 1: had a lot going on in the house. And I
44:30
Speaker 1: just kept, I was like, what is, you see the
44:32
Speaker 1: game delayed. And then I get a text from a buddy, Chris.
44:36
Speaker 1: He's like, bro, are you seeing this? They're not going
44:38
Speaker 1: to have a play clock. They're not going to have headsets.
44:40
Speaker 1: They're not going to have replays. I'm like, Florida State,
44:42
Speaker 1: it's so funny. You know, some people, I had Derek Ray,
44:46
Speaker 1: who was the general manager of Florida State for years,
44:49
Speaker 1: who just left, he's now with Bob Chesney at UCLA.
44:53
Speaker 1: And he came on the podcast a couple years ago,
44:55
Speaker 1: the year after they went, you know, they had been
44:57
Speaker 1: undefeated and they got left out because their quarterback was hurt.
45:00
Speaker 1: And then they had a couple bad years. Well, after 2000, whatever, 22,
45:04
Speaker 1: 23 range, think of what's happened the last couple years
45:07
Speaker 1: in college football. the payments to players has grown dramatically.
45:12
Speaker 1: Three or four years ago, you could land a player
45:13
Speaker 1: for 100 grand. Some guys won't even call you back
45:17
Speaker 1: for like $ 900, 000. The numbers haven't doubled. They've like five,
45:21
Speaker 1: six X'd in a two or three year period. And
45:24
Speaker 1: you know, I just heard some things like Florida State
45:27
Speaker 1: has no money. And all these people are like, Mike
45:29
Speaker 1: Norvell's gonna get fired. Someone's gonna stroke a check for
45:31
Speaker 1: 50 plus million dollars to Mike Norvell. They can't even
45:33
Speaker 1: pay the power bill. Florida State, you're watching a program
45:37
Speaker 1: that is broken. Like, to me, Clemson is poorly run
45:41
Speaker 1: with Dabo, with the transfer portal and some of his
45:43
Speaker 1: ideals of loyalty with players he recruits that can't play
45:47
Speaker 1: dead in the Western. Florida State looks like a program
45:49
Speaker 1: with no money. And last night was the most symbolic
45:53
Speaker 1: moment of there's a two-hour delay because they can't get
45:57
Speaker 1: the lights on. They couldn't get the power turned on.
46:02
Speaker 1: I'm not trying to overreact here. That's as embarrassing of
46:05
Speaker 1: a moment in the NIL era. that also symbolizes the
46:08
Speaker 1: state of a program is I can remember. I think
46:13
Speaker 1: everyone thinks Mike Norvell is the village idiot. I mean,
46:15
Speaker 1: a couple years ago, they were undefeated with like three
46:18
Speaker 1: different quarterbacks and a bunch of NFL players. They don't
46:20
Speaker 1: have NFL players now, it looks like. Why? They don't
46:23
Speaker 1: have any money. If you don't have any money, you
46:25
Speaker 1: don't have a shot. You have no shot. Florida State
46:29
Speaker 1: now is much closer to Fresno State than it is Miami.
46:32
Speaker 1: And those are just the financial times we're living in. Okay,
46:41
Speaker 1: let's do a couple mailbag questions and then get you
46:43
Speaker 1: out of here, get you ready for this football game. Okay,
46:48
Speaker 1: let's bang out some questions. Just heard the pod this morning,
46:52
Speaker 1: and you had the Steelers to make the playoffs over
46:53
Speaker 1: the Ravens and the Pats. Could you go a little deeper?
46:57
Speaker 1: You kind of did the coward thing where you look
46:59
Speaker 1: at the coach-quarterback duo, but then talked yourself into taking
47:02
Speaker 1: the worst duo of the three options. You said yourself
47:05
Speaker 1: Rodgers is the worst of the three quarterbacks present day.
47:08
Speaker 1: I'd agree. Lamar, Drake, May, Rodgers. If you were a team,
47:14
Speaker 1: Rodgers would be the third pick of the bunch. So
47:16
Speaker 1: you're saying McCarthy is so much better than Vrabel and
47:18
Speaker 1: Minter that he is going to drag a corpse of
47:21
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers over the line. You also said the Ravens
47:24
Speaker 1: have a first-time play caller. Things can get weird. What
47:27
Speaker 1: has Lamar done in his first year with a new
47:29
Speaker 1: OC both times it's happened in his career? He won
47:32
Speaker 1: the MVP. Here's the problem with that argument. Greg Roman
47:38
Speaker 1: had been Harbaugh's offensive coordinator for for multiple years in
47:43
Speaker 1: San Francisco where they won with Alex Smith, NFC Championship game.
47:48
Speaker 1: They changed the entire offense to Kaepernick in the middle
47:51
Speaker 1: of 2012 and then was able to morph. So he
47:54
Speaker 1: had an experience with that type of offense with Lamar Jackson.
47:58
Speaker 1: And I'm pretty sure Todd Munkin had called some plays
48:00
Speaker 1: before he showed up to coach Lamar Jackson. So you
48:03
Speaker 1: had two guys with a lot of experience. Now we
48:05
Speaker 1: can nitpick both of them. Roman, obviously, is a guy
48:09
Speaker 1: that's pretty polarizing. And Munkin... shit the bed against the
48:13
Speaker 1: Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. But to compare those
48:16
Speaker 1: guys to 30-year-old Declan Doyle, to me, is not a parallel.
48:21
Speaker 1: McCarthy is as accomplished as Mike Tomlin or John Harbaugh.
48:26
Speaker 1: I think his resume, actually, I heard someone say, is
48:28
Speaker 1: not that much different from Sean Payton either. McCarthy, his
48:32
Speaker 1: resume is way longer than Mike Vrabel. And I'm pro-Mike Vrabel.
48:37
Speaker 1: So I would rank those McCarthy, Vrabel, and then Minter's
48:42
Speaker 1: just an unknown with a major unknown at play caller.
48:46
Speaker 1: I also said this. The Ravens won eight games last year.
48:51
Speaker 1: It's not like the Ravens, like, you know, fired their,
48:53
Speaker 1: like the Bills. Like they fired their coach. They were
48:56
Speaker 1: a player or two away from being in the AFC
48:57
Speaker 1: championship game. It was just time. The Ravens were kind
49:00
Speaker 1: of in shambles last year. Had some major, major issues
49:03
Speaker 1: on defense. And now they've had some turnovers with players. I...
49:07
Speaker 1: There's just some unknown with the franchise. Historically, 18 years
49:10
Speaker 1: of John, they transition. They transition. I don't know. It's
49:13
Speaker 1: fair to say I just don't know. And I think
49:16
Speaker 1: the schedule is a lot harder with New England. Do
49:19
Speaker 1: I think New England? could easily take that spot? 100%.
49:21
Speaker 1: I think the Steelers, one of their issues, they had
49:25
Speaker 1: one wide receiver last year. They had DK Metcalf, who,
49:28
Speaker 1: let's face it, a number two. So they had a
49:30
Speaker 1: sweet number two wide receiver. Now they have multiple number
49:34
Speaker 1: two wide receivers with him and Pittman. Their offense, they
49:37
Speaker 1: have a bunch of tight ends. Their offense is going
49:38
Speaker 1: to be better. And I think defensively, though, can't be
49:42
Speaker 1: any worse. Again, I just picked one out of three.
49:47
Speaker 1: I think all three have question marks. Rodgers last year
49:50
Speaker 1: played pretty well. The other thing is, we're ranking Rodgers
49:56
Speaker 1: while he's the third-ranked guy of the three. We're acting
50:01
Speaker 1: like he's Tua. I mean, Rodgers is pretty solid. To me,
50:07
Speaker 1: it comes down to, can they run the ball? I
50:10
Speaker 1: think McCarthy's resume is pretty good. I would probably rank it,
50:17
Speaker 1: if you told me the Pats are a playoff team,
50:20
Speaker 1: I could totally see that. I think there's just a
50:22
Speaker 1: lot of question with the Ravens. I see some people
50:24
Speaker 1: picking them to win like 13 games. I'd be a
50:26
Speaker 1: little surprised. I heard you and Colin pick in Seattle
50:29
Speaker 1: to make Super Bowl. I'm fading Seattle. Losing Kubiak is
50:32
Speaker 1: a big deal. Think about the Eagles and the Lions
50:35
Speaker 1: both in recent examples. I got the Bills, Chargers, AFC champ, Rams, Cowboys,
50:40
Speaker 1: NFC champ. What do you think? I think the Chargers
50:46
Speaker 1: could be really good. I think defensively, their front is
50:50
Speaker 1: going to be excellent. I think Mesidor is going to
50:53
Speaker 1: be a guy in the mix for defensive rookie of
50:56
Speaker 1: the year. I think offensively, I saw Dana Jeremiah had
51:01
Speaker 1: on Joe Ortiz, and they were talking about Jamal Lewis,
51:04
Speaker 1: who they were both around with the Ravens back in
51:06
Speaker 1: the day with Ozzie Newsome. And they compared Omari and
51:09
Speaker 1: Hampton to him, like this physical back. They got a
51:13
Speaker 1: big-time offensive line with the two tackles. Quarterback's good. Yeah,
51:17
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the Chargers could be pretty good.
51:19
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are going to be good. I mean,
51:21
Speaker 1: I think a lot of people, like, I don't know.
51:23
Speaker 1: Something about Joe Brady. Listen, I'm not claiming I'm right,
51:26
Speaker 1: but you meet a guy, you're like, I kind of
51:28
Speaker 1: feel his aura. I kind of feel his swag. Like,
51:29
Speaker 1: that feels like a head coach. You see Jesse Minter,
51:32
Speaker 1: you're like, doesn't really feel like a head coach to me. Now,
51:35
Speaker 1: I think Jesse Minter's been a really good defensive coordinator.
51:37
Speaker 1: Kind of has some Mike McDaniel vibes to me. But again,
51:40
Speaker 1: maybe I'm off. And I'm not even trying to be
51:42
Speaker 1: a hater. I believe in the Harbaughs and the guys
51:45
Speaker 1: they hire. But you're just telling me he's going to
51:48
Speaker 1: be the next Mike McDonald? I don't know. Rams, Cowboys.
51:53
Speaker 1: You guys know I love the Cowboys. I think the
51:57
Speaker 1: cool part about this season is you could make the
51:59
Speaker 1: case for like six, seven teams in each conference being
52:03
Speaker 1: in the Final Four. I think the NFC is... a
52:06
Speaker 1: ton of teams in the mix. Some teams that won't
52:10
Speaker 1: end up being in the mix, you could sell me
52:11
Speaker 1: on right now. Like, I don't believe, hell, I don't
52:14
Speaker 1: even have the Packers in the playoffs, but like, if
52:17
Speaker 1: they're able to like, stabilize everything, Josh Jacobs' case just
52:21
Speaker 1: goes away, like it happens a lot with rich people,
52:24
Speaker 1: and all of a sudden, Micah comes back fully healthy,
52:26
Speaker 1: Tucker Craft, Matt Golden takes a step, LaFleur's dialed in,
52:31
Speaker 1: they're an 11-win team, and boom, they're competing to win
52:33
Speaker 1: the division. Like, I can see it. Uh, question for
52:36
Speaker 1: the pod. This guy's from Santa Barbara. Can you talk
52:40
Speaker 1: about Trent Mosley? I know you're not the biggest SC
52:43
Speaker 1: guy fight on for all the sea. I'm not anti-SC.
52:47
Speaker 1: He was grossly underrated coming out of high school, considering
52:50
Speaker 1: the run he went on in the CIF and then
52:52
Speaker 1: looking like an all American in his first two games,
52:54
Speaker 1: breaking tackles. You know, I've obviously watched because they played
52:58
Speaker 1: on Friday nights, watch both their games. He, to me,
53:04
Speaker 1: he's the wide receiver at USC number four. He's got
53:08
Speaker 1: a little, I'm not saying he's going to be this good,
53:10
Speaker 1: but last year, Tony, you know, assuming USC's a 9-10
53:14
Speaker 1: win team, Tony just was a true freshman, and by
53:18
Speaker 1: the end of the year, like, this guy's elite. I
53:20
Speaker 1: think Mosley's got a chance to be, like, I'm the
53:22
Speaker 1: best freshman wide receiver in the league. They played San
53:25
Speaker 1: Jose State. They played Fresno State. Hard to judge. He's
53:28
Speaker 1: a Southern California guy. What's it going to look like
53:30
Speaker 1: when he plays in some of these colder weather games?
53:32
Speaker 1: Still a lot of question marks, but just his play
53:36
Speaker 1: speed is pretty elite. I mean, his movement in the
53:38
Speaker 1: open field when they just show some of the isos
53:40
Speaker 1: after some of his touchdowns or routes. Guys got some ability.
53:46
Speaker 1: Hammer the Iowa Hawkeyes to make the playoffs. Look at
53:50
Speaker 1: the schedule. They could honestly make it with two losses potentially.
53:53
Speaker 1: But after what we just watched with Michigan and Bryce
53:56
Speaker 1: Underwood and Washington, I could definitely see them going 11-1.
54:00
Speaker 1: I'm not even sure losing to Ohio State is a
54:01
Speaker 1: lock either. Could be a night game in Iowa. Google
54:06
Speaker 1: what happened the last time they came. Trust me on this. John, source, quote,
54:11
Speaker 1: trust me, bro. I think we'll see how good Ohio
54:13
Speaker 1: State is this week when them and Texas play. I mean,
54:15
Speaker 1: those two teams played, I mean, what a joke week
54:18
Speaker 1: one is for those two guys. I mean, they'd be
54:20
Speaker 1: sitting at halftime. It's like, what are we doing? You know,
54:24
Speaker 1: I think you and Penn State have opportunities with the schedule.
54:27
Speaker 1: I think they're really trying to stay away from that.
54:31
Speaker 1: You know, it's like a 10-2 team. I feel like
54:34
Speaker 1: a 9-3 team is eventually going to make it over
54:36
Speaker 1: a 10-2 team that plays a way harder schedule and
54:39
Speaker 1: proves themselves. And I wonder if that's on the table
54:42
Speaker 1: this year. I think this year, for the first time,
54:44
Speaker 1: it's going to get really weird. I mean, last year
54:46
Speaker 1: was Miami and Notre Dame, that conversation. But Miami beat
54:49
Speaker 1: Notre Dame. Like, they played. Miami won. This year, I
54:53
Speaker 1: think there's going to be a lot of like, especially
54:54
Speaker 1: some of these Big Ten schedules. Okay, a couple more questions.
54:58
Speaker 1: Love your work. You've been my gardening soundtrack now for years. Question.
55:02
Speaker 1: We struggle in Australia to get people in the NFL
55:04
Speaker 1: largely due to the pace of the game. Our games, rugby,
55:07
Speaker 1: Aussie rules, all move fast, no ad breaks, 80 minutes,
55:12
Speaker 1: end to end. The biggest objection we get as NFL
55:15
Speaker 1: fans when recruiting mates, quote, friends, and I know what
55:18
Speaker 1: mates are, is but it is too slow and takes
55:21
Speaker 1: forever it's crazy a game takes three hours and there's
55:24
Speaker 1: like 12 minutes of game time I have the NFL
55:26
Speaker 1: app and can watch games on their ad-free sped up
55:28
Speaker 1: mode if we watch them delayed, which is usually not drama.
55:32
Speaker 1: But my question is, what do you all do during
55:35
Speaker 1: all the ad breaks in games when you watch games live?
55:39
Speaker 1: Any tips? Do you all have red zone on separate TVs,
55:43
Speaker 1: multiple games? I get watching with a large crew and
55:45
Speaker 1: making a real event of it. But what about just
55:48
Speaker 1: chilling at home on the couch? How do you keep
55:50
Speaker 1: up the vibe when watching live? Well, I think, I
55:55
Speaker 1: don't know. We just, Watch the game, and when the
55:58
Speaker 1: commercials hit, we plan our phone, we eat a snack,
56:02
Speaker 1: we take a leak. I mean, maybe our vibes, you know,
56:06
Speaker 1: I think a lot of us watch the game either
56:08
Speaker 1: by ourselves or with other friends that are fans of
56:12
Speaker 1: those teams. So if you're like a fan of the
56:16
Speaker 1: Cowboys or the Giants or the Eagles or whatever, you're
56:18
Speaker 1: watching the game with your buddies that are all the
56:21
Speaker 1: same fan of those teams, you... You're excited or complained
56:26
Speaker 1: that you just talk about the game during the break.
56:30
Speaker 1: I don't even think about it. I don't know. We're
56:32
Speaker 1: so used to the flow of those. It's a great question.
56:37
Speaker 1: Maybe we're not into vibes. We're just into the next play.
56:40
Speaker 1: We just have a next play mentality. So we just
56:42
Speaker 1: start talking about what's going to happen the next play.
56:45
Speaker 1: We'll end on this. Ari Aaron Donald. On some level,
56:48
Speaker 1: could this move disrupt the Rams locker room? Especially Miles
56:52
Speaker 1: and Fisk. The players would never admit it, but Garrett
56:55
Speaker 1: was supposed to be the final piece, top dog, the
56:58
Speaker 1: alpha of the defense, sack leader, first ballot hall of famer,
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Speaker 1: et cetera. And now all anyone's talking about is Aaron Donald.
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Speaker 1: And for Fisk, playing next to Garrett was his chance
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Speaker 1: to really break out, where now he's sharing time with Donald.
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Speaker 1: Maybe Donald subs in on passing downs on occasion. How
57:13
Speaker 1: is this playing in on the locker room? I can't
57:15
Speaker 1: imagine as the type to stay quiet in the corner.
57:19
Speaker 1: I can't imagine Donald the type to... I think this
57:22
Speaker 1: would be a bigger issue in basketball. I think in football,
57:28
Speaker 1: I bet everyone in that locker room was excited. Miles
57:31
Speaker 1: Garrett is paid like the alpha. And he's an edge guy.
57:37
Speaker 1: And even Fisk. Honestly, you play less reps, you're more
57:42
Speaker 1: equipped on a down-in-down basis to make more plays. I
57:46
Speaker 1: think it's more of an issue on offense. It's like, well,
57:50
Speaker 1: this guy's taken away because they're only... There's only one
57:52
Speaker 1: ball to go around. On defense, you rotate everyone no
57:56
Speaker 1: matter what. I think the one position group that just
58:04
Speaker 1: doesn't matter is truly the defensive linemen. I don't think
58:07
Speaker 1: they care at all. The Volume