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Week 4 2026 College Football Picks for the 10 Best Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Well, we had a successful Week 3, but it is
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: time to jump into Week 4. And we are going
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: over the 10 best games of Week 4 of the
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: 2026 college football season. Welcome in, Winning Cures Everything. This
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: is a college football podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seegers,
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: at GaryWCE on all the different socials. If you have
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: not subscribed, do me that favor. Go ahead and subscribe
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: to the channel and the podcast if you're listening over there.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Like the video, subscribe to the channel. I already said subscribe.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Subscribe everywhere. Subscribe, subscribe, whatever. It's free, and it helps
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: me out tremendously. We had a good week last week.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and show what the record is thus
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: far for last week's show. And that, of course, is
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: the 10 best games and then the 15 more. 16-9
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: against the number, both for the show and for the model.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Underdogs that we picked went 9-4 last week. Not too shabby.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: Not too shabby. Overall on the season, as you can see,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: 41 and 27 for official show picks. The model picks
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: are 42 and 26. And the underdog picks, 19 and 15. So,
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: the show picks and the model picks, both over 60%
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: so far on the season as we get ready for
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: week number four. Let's not waste a bunch of time.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and jump into game number one. The
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: USC Trojans hosting the Oregon Ducks 6.30 p.m. Central Time
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: on NBC. God's time zone, of course. Oregon right now
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: a 1.5 point favorite. Total of 62.5 on this one.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Oregon 2-1 on the season. Number 20 in the country.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: USC is number 12. USC 4-0 already. This is the
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Big Ten opener for both teams. Last time out for
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: both teams. Oregon 84-0. Just walloping of Portland State. The
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: real tape to pay attention to is the 39-31 Week
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: 2 loss at Oklahoma State and then the closer-than-expected call
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: against Boise State. USC last week, 42-35 win at Rutgers.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: One ugly. The fan base melted down. Not good. Lincoln
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Riley now 1-8 against the spread when they make these
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: East Coast road trips. The last meeting between these two
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: teams was last November. Oregon won 42-27. That was at Autzen.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It ended USC's playoff hopes. USC leads the series 38-24-2 all-time,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: but Oregon has won four straight. Lincoln Riley is 0-2
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: against Dan Lanning. As far as storylines for this one, Lanning,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: $ 50 million roster. He's got no title. Stillwater, what happened there?
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: There's zero margin for error now. So they have got
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: to start playing better now. The Portland State game shows
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: me nothing. Uh, Lincoln Riley at USC 35 and 18. Uh,
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: he's got zero CFP trips in four years. Probably should
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: have made it that first year, uh, with Caleb Wilson,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: but okay. The Williams Williams Wilson, either way, either way,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: if he had not gotten hurt against Utah, who knows?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Who knows? Um, of course, everybody talked about the reported
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: tell with Dante Moore, the quarterback for Oregon shotgun foot alignment,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: tipping run and pass, uh, He addressed it publicly. Apparently
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: it worked fine against Portland State. Again, that's Portland State.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: It's not great. Oregon's left guard, Trent Ferguson, is out
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: for the season with a knee injury. The line already
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: couldn't protect more, or at least didn't do a very
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: good job of it. That doesn't mean that they can't
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: going forward. If you look at the numbers here, which
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: you can get over on buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures, you check
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: out these numbers, and that offensive success rate, number four,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: For USC, Oregon's defensive success rate that they give up
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: is number 60. It's not good. USC number 10 in
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: passing success. It's more the rushing success. USC is number
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: 18 in rushing success. Oregon's defense is number 88 in
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: rushing success allowed. That is a huge, huge gap. USC
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: available yards margin number 8 against Oregon number 71. USC's flaw...
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: is their defensive success rate. Number 73, but they are
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: awful against the pass. The issue that you're going to
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: run into is the fact that Oregon has not been
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: great at throwing the football. Number 79 in passing success rate.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: It's not good. Not good. Tempo, Oregon is number one
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: in plays per, or pace, excuse me, in pace, that
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: is plays per minute. They are number one in that,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: and USC is number 107. So, whoever ends up winning
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: this pace battle, probably a good chance to win the game. USC,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: off of a straight-up win, is 8-12 against the spread
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: in their last 20. In that situation, that's 33%. That's
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: not great. They did just win. USC at home, 10-6
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Oregon, as a A road favorite of
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: less than 14 points. They are 1-2 in their last three,
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: over the last three seasons, dating back to 2024. That's
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: just kind of noise. Doesn't really matter. If you look
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: at the overall talent rank, number four for Oregon, number
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: nine for USC on three. You start diving into five factors.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Big difference with Oregon at number 15, but that's mostly talent-based.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: Strength schedule-based, etc. USC hadn't exactly played the toughest schedule here.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Number 92, Oregon number 58. These are based on Sakharin's numbers.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Based on the stats, my power rating has USC by 0.3,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: so basically a pick-em. Based on the stats, though, I
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: would have USC favored by two points. The spread has
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Oregon minus one and a half. Oregon was a double-digit
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: favorite in this game. three weeks ago. So I understand
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: why Oregon is still favored. I don't like USC's defense
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: right now. I don't feel good about it. So the
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: way that I'm going to go on this, I think
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go USC. I haven't seen Oregon necessarily
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: fix anything yet. Maybe they didn't really give a rip
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: about the Oregon, I mean the Oklahoma State game. But
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: at some point, I feel like Lincoln Riley has got
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: to get this thing figured out. I feel like he
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: might have it figured out with the offense right now,
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: and that might be enough to get them this win.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to have a big crowd there.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: I think everybody's going to be excited. So the model
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: likes USC. USC minus 1.98. I'll side with the model.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: Give me USC plus 1.5 to knock off Oregon this Saturday.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: Game number two, 6.30 p.m. Central Time on ABC. The
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: LSU Tigers coming off of that loss against Ole Miss.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: They welcome in to Baton Rouge the Texas A &
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: M Aggies, who are coming off of their own loss
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: at home to Kentucky last week. Both just got punched
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: in the mouth. The LSU's was quite a bit more heartbreaking,
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: it feels like. The Kentucky win, you just, you could
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: feel that one slipping away. The LSU win... Down 24-7,
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: came back to tie it. Just ridiculous. Just ridiculous. The
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: last meeting between these two teams, October 25th of last year,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: A & M won 49-25 in Baton Rouge. LSU led
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: that game 18-14 at halftime. A & M ran off
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: 35 straight points in the second half, and that was
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: the end of the Brian Kelly era. That's the way
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: it goes because A & M fans just took over
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Tiger Stadium. It was embarrassing. Absolutely embarrassing. It was the
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: first win in Tiger Stadium since 1994 for A & M.
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: They have won two straight in the series. A &
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: M has outscored LSU 66-13 in second halves over those
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: two games. That's going to have to change if Lane
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Kiffin wants to keep the playoff push going. Right? Both
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: of these teams had playoff aspirations. They were both top
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: 10 teams coming into the season. Both are top 10
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: as far as roster talent, as far as everything else. Yeah,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: this is Givens' first crossroads at LSU, right? Brought 12
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: assistants from Ole Miss back in late November, early December,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: whatever it was. Just got beat by them. This is
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: a rough spot for both of these teams. Both of
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: these teams. LSU, by the way, favored by 8.5. No,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: favored by 7.5. It opened 8.5. 9 at some places,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: but it is consensus 7.5 across the board. Total is 53.5
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: on this. We do have some injury things that we've
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: got to pay attention to. Trades Green was on crutches
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: post Ole Miss. Their safety is out as well. This
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: is not These are not good things. These are not
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: good things. As far as the numbers, PPA margin, predicted
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: points added margin here. LSU is number 29, and Texas
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: A & M is number 71. Now, Sagarin has the
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule for LSU at number 15. It has
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the current strength of schedule at number 37 for Texas
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: A & M. I don't know what to make of it.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: I don't think A & M has played that tough
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: of a schedule, but either way, either way. You look
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: at some of these numbers, LSU's defense is pretty elite.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: Number four in success rate allowed. They were number two
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: in rushing success allowed. Ole Miss could do nothing. Now
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: part of that is the fact that their running back
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: went out early in that game. But they are number
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: 26 against the pass as well. Something to pay attention to.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: As far as A & M, just not explosive at all.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Marcel Reed not doing great things with the football. They are...
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Number 75 in giveaways per game, but the defense has
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: done a good job of taking the ball back from
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: other teams. They are number 123 in net explosiveness. LSU
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: is number 31 in net explosiveness. A & M not
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: only can't generate explosive plays, they also can't seem to
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: stop them. So, something to pay attention to here because
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: LSU is fairly good at generating, but they're also really
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: good at stopping them. So I don't expect A &
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: M to get any huge chunk plays in this. This
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: is a A scary, scary spot for LSU. LSU tends
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: to beat themselves. They're number 117 in giveaways per game.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Some of those turnovers, maybe not the most important, but
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: either way. LSU's red zone touchdown rate is number 94.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: Right there. They've got to get better in the red zone.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Got to get better in the red zone. 61% of
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: their red zone trips in touchdowns. A & M is
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: significantly better at that, but their defense is number 40
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: in red zone touchdown rate allowed, 50%. And they're number
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: 20 in defensive red zone appearances per game. They only
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: give up two per game. Now I would expect that
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: to change here because they're playing a much better offense,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: I believe. LSU is number seven in plays per game.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: A & M is number 79. It's pretty wild. Defense
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: doesn't give up a lot of plays. It's very interesting.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Very interesting to see here. A & M second half margin.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: There we go. Number two in the country in second
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: half point margin. LSU is number six. So both of
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: these teams pretty good as far as the second half
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: is concerned. Some trends to pay attention to. Mike Oko
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: off of a straight up loss is 0-5 against the spread.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Kiffin as a less than 14 point home favorite. 5-1
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: against the spread. A & M Road Games. Go to
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: the over, 8-1, so 8 overs and only 1 under.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Kiffin in SEC games, this is where it gets tricky, 6-11,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: so 6 overs. That's 35%. A lot of contradiction here.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: A lot of contradiction. The model has LSU minus 7.98.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: The power rating has LSU minus 6.3, but the model
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: has them by almost 8 points. This thing is at 7.5 now.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: I believe that's right. My total on this is 63.58.
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: If there's one thing that you take away from this,
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: let it be this. All 10 of these are going
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: to show that my projected total is over based on stats.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: That's still baking in a lot of these, you know,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: A & M scored 50 points against Missouri State. LSU
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: scored 51 points against a hapless Clemson team. Scored 45
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: against Louisiana Tech. That kind of stuff. It's I'm still
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: working on that formula. Don't put a ton of stock
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: into the totals just yet. As we get later in
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: the season, that'll work itself out. But a lot of
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: money coming in on A & M thus far. Even
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: at 7.5, I'm going to go LSU. I don't trust
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: this A & M team. I don't think they're very
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: good at the line of scrimmage. I think LSU is
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: a lot better. And coming off of that loss, I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: think they're going to be fired up. And I think
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: that Tiger Stadium will be a huge factor in this.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: So give me LSU minus 7.5. College game day is
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: making their way to Knoxville this Saturday for a noon Eastern,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. God's time zone kickoff against Tennessee and Texas,
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: or between Tennessee and Texas. Texas opened 5.5. The line
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: hasn't moved yet. Total is 57.5. Texas 3-0, number one
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: in the country. Tennessee is number 14, also 3-0. It's
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the SEC opener for both. Texas' first road game and
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: their first ever game in Knoxville. The cheapest ticket is
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: like $ 350 right now. It's pretty crazy. They are checkering
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Neyland from what I understand. The last time out for
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: both of these teams, Texas 30-6 over UTSA. They were
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: kind of sluggish in that one. Manning was 16 out
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: of 32 for 161 yards. He took some pretty big hits.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: But week two was the big game. They beat Ohio
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: State 24-23. It was a 21-point fourth quarter comeback to
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: win that one. Tennessee, 42-9 over Kennesaw State. 29th straight
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: sellout in that one. In Week 2, their big game,
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: they won 45-24 at Georgia Tech, who turns out is
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: not all that great. But either way, the last time
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: that these two teams met was 1969. January 1st, it
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: was in the Cotton Bowl. Texas won 36-13. Doubt any
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: of the players know anything about that game. Just a guess.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: It is the fourth meeting ever. Texas leads 2-1. All
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: three of them were in Dallas. It's the first conference
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: game between them ever. And this is, I mean, the
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: storyline writes itself, right? Manning walks into Neyland. This is
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: Peyton's house from 94 to 97. Arch Manning is going in.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Both of these teams claim UT. That wasn't the last
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two. I feel like there was another one.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Maybe I'm crazy. Maybe it wasn't. I don't know. I
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: looked back and found that. Either way, if that's wrong,
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: correct me in the comments. Let me know. It's two
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: orange teams. Both of them claim MUT. Here's what it is.
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: Faison Brandon, true freshman, five-star, has looked awesome. Seven total
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: touchdowns in two games. Already has a P4 road win.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: This is a slightly different situation. Texas is not allowed
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: a touchdown in six straight quarters. This is pretty wild.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: This is going to be Pretty wild. Tennessee running back
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Deshaun Bishop was dinged up in the second quarter last week.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Morris took over, had 116 yards against Kennesaw, is what
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: it is. If you're paying attention to the numbers, the
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: current strength of schedule, Texas number 26 in their current
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, Tennessee number 116 per Sagarin. That's big.
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: That's really big. Texas pass explosiveness allowed number 128. Let's see.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: where am I looking for the, oh, there we go.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Their offense is, yeah, Texas's offense, number 128 in passing explosiveness.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: So they, they aren't big as far as huge passing gains,
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: but we'll see. The offensive numbers have not been, they've
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: not been great. We'll say that outside of garbage time
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: or before garbage time. Um, number 87 in PPA per
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: drive on offense, number 91 in PPA per play on offense.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Their numbers have just not been great by any stretch,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: to say the least. They're pretty good at stopping the
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: run on defense. Passing defense has not been great, but again,
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: they've played Ohio State, so got to pay attention to that.
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Special teams is pretty good, both of these teams inside
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: the top 35. Overall talent, Texas is number one, Tennessee
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: is number 11. This is an interesting spot. This offense
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: for Texas, better at throwing the football even though they
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: don't do a bunch of chunk plays. They have not
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: ran it great, but against this Tennessee defense, who is
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: number 95 in PPA allowed per rush, might be able
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: to have a little more success there. Rushing success rate
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: for Texas is number 28. Tennessee's defense is number 75.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: offensive line yards allowed, etc. Another one of these teams
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: good on either side of the ball as far as
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: that is concerned. I take that back. Tennessee's really good
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: running the ball, but I do think Texas is going
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: to be able to slow them down. This is interesting.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: Very interesting. Texas, right now, number 3 in second half
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: point margin, number 52 in first half point margin. Tennessee
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: kind of comes out of the gate fine. And they
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: do well in the second half as well. As far
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: as five factors, as far as talent is concerned, and
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, etc., it bumps Texas from number 34
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: up to number 6. Tennessee, it bumps from number 12
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: up to number 23. So, are down to number 23
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: when you pay attention to strength of schedule, etc. Tennessee,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: 74 penalty yards per game. That's number 119. Hypel has
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: already made a big deal about the penalties and whatnot,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: especially against Georgia Tech. So that's something to pay attention to.
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Tennessee pretty efficient thus far this year. Net points per
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: drive is number 11. Offensive points per drive is number 8.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Red zone conversion percentage is number 1. Red zone touchdown
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: rate number 7. Defensive red zone touchdown rate is number 8.
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Now again, a lot of this has to do with
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule. So, as far as trends, Tennessee at
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: home 6-10 against the spread in their last 16 games.
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: That's not great. Texas on the road 2-7 against the spread.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: That's 22% over the last 9 games. One of these
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: trends is going to have to break. Somebody has to
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: cover this game. is what it is. The model has
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: Texas minus 8.22. Power rating has Texas minus 6. But
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: the model, Texas minus 8.22, I don't trust the freshman quarterback,
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: even at home. I don't trust him against a team
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: that is this stacked. I know the numbers aren't great
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: right now. It's only a three-game sample size. I'm going
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: to go with Texas to cover this. Minus 5.5. I
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: think there's going to be some mistakes made. We'll see.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Turnover margin, number 68 for Tennessee, number 35 for Texas.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go Texas. Minus 5.5. I'm going with
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: another favorite. This one a road favorite. But Tennessee's going
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: to have to prove it to me. I need to
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: see them do something against somebody that's not weaker quality
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: because Georgia Tech, that ain't going to do it. Texas
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: found a way to come back against Ohio State. I
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: feel a lot better about that. So give me the Longhorns.
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: Minus five and a half. Want extra Winning Cures Everything
• 21:22
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• 21:25
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• 21:29
  Speaker 1: community today. Are you tired of sore knees or joints
• 21:35
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• 21:39
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• 21:43
  Speaker 1: Use code WCE for 15% off over at ghostleaves.com. Game
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: number four, 2.30 p.m. Central Time, God's Time Zone in Athens, Georgia.
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: The Georgia Bulldogs are hosting the Oklahoma Sooners in a
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: game that not that long ago everybody was really hyping up.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: It is the second ever meeting between these two. Oklahoma's
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: first trip to Athens. But Oklahoma is now 2-1. Didn't
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: look great last week against New Mexico. Only scored 14 points.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: Only put up 10 points on the board against Michigan
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: in the big house two weeks ago as a 5.5
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: point favorite. Last time these two teams were out, Georgia
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: 45-17 at Arkansas. Had 254 rushing yards. It was such
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: a mess that Kirby and the staff were running drills
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: during TV timeouts. They didn't feel like they were getting
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: enough work in. Oklahoma, 14-6. At home against New Mexico,
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: Mateer was 17 out of 33 for 189 yards, one touchdown,
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: one pick. They lost at Michigan in Week 2. Week
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: 1 against UTEP, 51-0. The defense is phenomenal. The offense
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: is awful. The last meeting between these two was in
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl 2018. Georgia won that one 54-48 in
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: two overtimes. That was Jake Fromm over Baker Mayfield. Insane ballgame.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Absolutely insane ballgame. Storylines here are pretty wild. Quarterbacks going
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: in opposite directions. Stockton, 28 out of 32, 436 with
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: eight touchdowns, zero turnovers. Mestier is still broken post-thumb surgery.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: Their offensive success rate is number 113 in the country,
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: number 63 passing, but rushing is just awful. I mean,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: just bad. If you look at their offensive numbers running
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: the football, number 120 in offensive line yards, 127 in
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness, 112 in rushing success rate, number 125 in
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: PPA per rush. I mean, there ain't nothing you can
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: do with that. It's all just terrible. Venables has been
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: publicly frustrated about it. He called the New Mexico game ugly.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: The offense coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, who was like when they
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: started last year, it looked like he was going to
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: answer some offensive questions for them. And he claims that
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: it's execution and not scheme. But, whew. I mean, this
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: is rough. Oklahoma's defense can't keep this thing close. The
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: question is going to be whether or not the offense
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: scores at all. I mean, if you only put up
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: 10 points on Michigan, you only put up 14 on
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, what is this Georgia defense going to do?
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: Georgia's defense is... I mean, other world, number one against
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: the run, so you were not going to be able
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: to do anything against them running. Passing, number 43, success
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Overall, Georgia's defense, number seven in defensive success
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. I mean, it's terrifying. Absolutely terrifying. Oklahoma is
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: number 116 in PPA per drive. That's predicted points added
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: per drive. Oklahoma's Kip Lewis, the linebacker, Went down in
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: the first quarter against Michigan. Defense missed him pretty badly.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: These numbers are just other world. I mean, it's so
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: crazy to think about. Georgia number one in PPA margin,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: offensive success, net points per drive, points per play margin,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: points per game margin, etc. Points per drive, net explosiveness,
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: rushing success, defensive explosiveness allowed, all that kind of stuff.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: But the asterisk that you've got to put on it is...
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: Their current strength of schedule is number 171. They have
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: not exactly played a murderer's row, to say the least.
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma's defense is real. They're number three in defensive success allowed.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: They are number six in per drive PPA. They are
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: number two in defensive red zone touchdown rate. But the
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: offense is just a disaster as I've gone over. Oklahoma's
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: turnover margin? Number 126. They are number 117 in giveaways
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: per game. If you give the ball away in Athens,
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: this could be a bludgeoning. Absolute bludgeoning. First half margin,
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: Georgia is number one in the country. Something to pay
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: attention to. Oklahoma is number 41. You look at five
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: factors plus strength of schedule plus talent rank. That strength
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: of schedule drops Georgia pretty significantly. But it boosts Oklahoma
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: because they are No. 41 in current strength of schedule.
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: As far as team talent, overall talent, Georgia is No. 2,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma is No. 14. Raw five factors, Georgia is No. 5,
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: and Oklahoma No. 46. So we'll see how this all
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: balances out as we go. Georgia as a 10-plus point
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: home favorite. 3-8 against the spread, 27% in 11 games.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma as a road dog is 4-1 against the spread.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: That is 80%, but it's only five games, small sample size.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: This thing was, it opened 14, and it's down to 13.5. Again,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: total is 45.5. The model has Georgia minus 16.94. Power
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: rating only has Georgia minus 6.2. But Georgia is, I mean,
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: they are playing awesome. They are playing awesome. The offense
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: looks good. But they're not having to really do much.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: They're just kind of overpowering teams. With Oklahoma, it's going
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: to be a lot more difficult to overpower them. Offensive
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: line yards allowed, standard downs, PPA, yards per rush, etc.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma can hang in this. It's already moved from 14
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: down to 13.5. I know that that trend about Georgia
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: not covering as a double-digit home favorite is pretty significant,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: 3-8 in the last 11. But I don't know how
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma scores. And if they can't score, I think Georgia
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: can score. So I don't think this is going to
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: be a close ballgame. 21-6 gets me a cover here.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: I think that's about what we're looking at. I mean,
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: 21-7 gets me a cover. Even if Oklahoma puts up
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: 10 points, I think I could see 27-10. And that
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: wouldn't feel totally blowout-ish. But that's the way that I'm looking.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: I'm going to go with another favorite. This one, a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: home favorite. But I feel pretty good about this. Give
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: me Georgia, minus 13.5. Again, the model has Georgia minus 16.94.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: I'm going to trust the model. I'm going to say
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: that Georgia covers the 13.5. Game number five, 2.30 p.m.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: Central Time on ABC. Florida, a two-and-a-half point favorite at
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: home against Ole Miss, who just had a big win
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: against LSU. Total of 59.5 on this one. Both teams 3-0.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Two first-year head coaches. Both have really big statement wins.
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Sumrall got the win at Auburn last week, 44-39. Jaden Ball,
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: 26 carries, 162 yards, 3 touchdowns. That included a 53-yard
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: touchdown on 4th and 1, 497 total yards for the offense.
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: The hire of Buster Faulkner was brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Ole Miss,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: 32-24 over LSU. Chambliss, 363, 2 passing touchdowns. The go-ahead
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: rushing touchdown, 8 of 8 on 3rd downs in the
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: first half was phenomenal. Give him the Heisman at this point.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: Just awesome. Just awesome. Uh, last meeting between Ole Miss
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: and Florida Ole Miss won 34, 24 in Oxford last season.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Of course, the last time that they, the last time
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: that they met in Gainesville, Florida upset Ole Miss and yeah,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: knocked him out of the playoff. Kevin's second to last
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: year in Oxford, Florida won the three meetings before last
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: year and they've won the last two in Gainesville. Um, Storylines. Like,
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Chambliss is the Heisman favorite, but what kind of a
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: letdown do you get off of that big win over Kiffin?
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: Last-minute win in the biggest game in Oxford in forever. Wild.
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Chambliss leads the SEC in completions, in attempts, in yards.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: He was the Sugar Bowl Most Outstanding Player last year.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: Florida is 3-0 for the first time since Dan Mullen
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: was around back in 2019. Jaden Ball, arguably the best
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: running back in the country, so that's going to be interesting.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: We've got to see if Kawhi Lacey suits up here.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss has two wins in AP Top 10 games
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: in the last 60 years. Golding has both of them,
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: so he knows how to coach in these situations, I
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: would believe. But the biggest question is the hangover. The
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: biggest revenge game in Ole Miss history, and They turn
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: around out of that, they get a big win, and
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: now they're a road dog against Florida. I was hoping
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: I could get Florida plus points. Instead, now Florida is
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: a favorite. Numbers to pay attention to. Florida's offense is
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: just kicking it. Now, strength of schedule is a big
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: difference here. Ole Miss has played two top 25 teams already.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: They beat Louisville late. They beat LSU late. Neither of
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: those was on the road. Florida, number 10 in PPA margin,
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: number 7 in PPA per drive on offense. Defense is
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: number 33, so they can get got. But this offense
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: is legit. They are serious. And that running back is
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: something else. Ole Miss defense, number 105 in defensive success
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: rate allowed. Now part of this is because they've played
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: Louisville and LSU. When you go up against Jeff Brom
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: and Lane Kiffin in two of your three games, yeah.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: That thing's going to happen. So I think the defense
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: is probably a little bit better than this, but they
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: are number 117 in PPA allowed per drive on defense.
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: Florida's defense, not great either, but they've certainly looked better.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: What you're hoping if you're Ole Miss is that Lacey
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: is healthy and totally fine, but that offensive line needs
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: to do better. Number 119 in offensive line yards. Florida's
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: number 125 in offensive line yards allowed. So if you
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: were ever going to get right, this might be the spot.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Florida is number 134 in stuff rate. That's not good.
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: That's just not great in the slightest. Passing defense, though,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Florida is number 19 in yards allowed per attempt. They
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: are number 31 in passing explosiveness allowed, number 15 in
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: havoc rate. So they might be able to get after Chambliss.
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: The issue that you run into there is if you
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: get him out of the pocket, that guy can create,
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: absolutely create. Turnovers favor Florida. They're number 14 in takeaways.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss is number 107. Yeah, number 107 in takeaways.
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss number 75 in giveaways per game. Florida also
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: number 75 in giveaways per game. The issue for Ole
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: Miss is that they don't do a good job of
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: taking away the ball. Florida is number 123 in penalties
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: per game. You give Chambliss free yards, and that's going
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: to kill you. Florida faces 17.3 third downs per game.
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: That is number one. They convert 42%. That's number 100.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: So that's not great. Second half margin, Ole Miss number 71.
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: Right there. And Florida is number 16. Now again, strength
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: of schedule plays a lot of this. Both teams are
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: number one in red zone conversion percentage. Something to pay
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: attention to. As far as trends, we've only got tiny
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: ones here. It's two first-year head coaches. Ole Miss, since 2024,
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: as a dog, they are 4-2 against the spread. Sumrall,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: as a less-than-7-point home favorite, since 2024, they are 3-0.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: And that dates back to him being at Tulane. So
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: he tends to cover smaller spreads at home. This one
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: has a case for going over the total. Now, again,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: my stats projected total, which I've mentioned before, don't take
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: this at face value because there's a lot. This is stats-based.
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: Right now, we don't have great stats because we've only
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: got three games on both of these teams. So it
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: thinks there's going to be like 75 points in this game.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: The total is 59.5. Has it moved? No, still sitting
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: at 59.5. I mean, I might look at it over
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: because I don't trust either one of these defenses against
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: these quarterbacks and whatnot, but it's something to pay attention
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: to is just how real is this Ole Miss hangover. Florida,
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: minus 4.81 is what the model says. The power rating
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: has Ole Miss minus 3.3, but the stats have Florida
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: minus 4.81. That is over the 2.5 point spread, and
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I believe in the hangover. I think Summerall is going
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: to I think he's going to be ready for this one.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: This is going to be a huge, huge game. Probably
• 35:53
  Speaker 1: the biggest game in the Swamp in I don't even
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: know how long. And the Swamp is real when the
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: fans are fired up and they think they've got a
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: real coach. They think they've got a real team. The
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: schedule aligns for them to make a playoff push. You
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: get a win over Ole Miss at home, things are
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: looking good. So I am going to go with Florida
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: to cover here. It's under a field goal. Anything under
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: a field goal, I would feel good about. Florida, minus
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: two and a half. I think they beat Ole Miss
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: this weekend. It wouldn't be an upset. It would be
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: as far as rankings go because Ole Miss is in
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: the top five now. But the last time that Ole
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: Miss came in here as a top five team, they
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: got shellacked. 38-10, I think it was, under Hugh Freeze
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: way back in the day with Chad Kelly and whatnot. Yeah,
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: give me Florida, minus two and a half. Game number six,
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: we go to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, 6 p.m. Central Time on
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: ESPN Alabama, a 12.5-point home favorite over the South Carolina Gamecocks.
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: This one has already moved up a point. It opened 11.5,
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: a total of 53.5 here. Alabama won last week 50-36
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: over Florida State. There were two lightning delays. This team
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: seems to do better after a break for whatever reason.
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: They were down... with like 240 left in the second quarter.
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: They were down 21-6. Came back out from a second
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: lightning delay, and they were up 26-21 at halftime, which
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: they didn't really have a halftime. The halftime was the
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: lightning delay, is what it is. South Carolina lost at
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: home 41-34 to Mississippi State last week. Whew. Shane Beamer
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: is in some hot water. Absolute hot water. Uh, the
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: last meeting between these two teams, uh, 2025 last year,
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: October 25th, Alabama 29 to 22 winners in Columbia pick
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: six and a forced fumble set up the game winner. Um,
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Alabama 27 to 25 winners over South Carolina in 2024.
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: That one was sealed by a pick as time expired
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: after a botched on side recovery, uh, I mean, Bama
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: leads the series 13-4, but the last two were decided
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: by two points and by seven points. Not great. Strength
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: of schedule, South Carolina number 185 at Sagarin, Alabama number
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: 19 at Sagarin. And yet the stats still have Alabama
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: covering this. Model has Alabama minus 14.31. Power rating has
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: Bama minus 12.2. Again, this spread is up to 12.5 now.
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: this is a big-time spot for Shane Beamer. They have
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: to put up some kind of a fight. They have to. DeBoer,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: Alabama has won the last two games, didn't cover, but
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: won the last two games ugly. Defense looked great in
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: the second half against Kentucky. Looked Better in the second
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: half against Florida State as well. That offense, I mean,
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: it's the thing that has been keeping them going. Keeping
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: them going. As far as numbers are concerned, South Carolina
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: looks elite at some things. They're number one in available
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: yards margin, which I think that might be a week
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: behind South I've got to double check if I pulled
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: the right numbers from BCF Toys. But either way, the
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: number four South Carolina that might travel, they are pretty
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: good at running the football, which makes sense. It's Kendall Briles.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. 6.99 yards per carry. That's number four
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: in the country. Alabama is pretty good at stopping the run.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Number four in yards allowed per rush, 1.79. But Florida
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: State was able to run the football on them. So
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: that's something to pay attention to. You start looking at
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Alabama's defensive line is number 35 compared to number 19
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: offensive line for South Carolina. On the other side, Alabama's
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: offensive line number 42 and South Carolina's defensive line number 25.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Just something to pay attention to. Just something to pay
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: attention to. Uh, South Carolina's defensive red zone conversion percentage
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: allowed is number, it's 100%, number 109. So they allow
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: a score every time somebody gets into the red zone.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Their turnover margin is number 106. So that's not great, right? Um,
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: Bama is number 23. South Carolina number 75 in giveaways
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: per game. Alabama is number 7 in takeaways per game.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: Certainly getting three picks off of Ashton Daniels helped. Getting
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: three turnovers from Kentucky helped. That was a big thing.
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: As far as South Carolina's special teams, number 13. Alabama
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: number 104. Thus far on the year. There you go.
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: You can see it now. Right there. Bama's flaw is
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: their explosiveness. They're number 80 in defensive explosiveness allowed. The
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: defense has been giving up chunk plays. So far, South
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Carolina number 45 in offensive explosiveness. They are number 71
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: passing it, but rushing explosiveness. They're number 29. I think
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: that's something Alabama can combat. Alabama is number 11 in
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness allowed. So I would pay attention to this,
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: see if South Carolina tries to throw some deep passes
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. Alabama, again, number 132 in passing explosiveness allowed.
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: So that is something that South Carolina will probably try
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: and take advantage of. Special teams, I already brought that up. That's,
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, three to four points hidden in a one-score series.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: That's something to pay attention to. Number 104 in special
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: teams efficiency. Trends on this one. There's a lot of
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: trends here. South Carolina off of a straight up loss.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: They are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: They did just lose that game to Mississippi State. South
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: Carolina as a dog in the last 12. They are 8-4.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: That's 67%. Alabama on the other side off of a
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: spread loss. They are 7-2 against the spread in their
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: last 9. That's 78%. Alabama laying short. between 10 and 13.5
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: points at home. 3-0 against the spread in the last
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: three years. Bama is a 10-plus point home favorite. They
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: are 10-3. That's 77%. Both sides have real trends here.
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: Like both sides. The spread is 12.5 now. My total
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: has got it 72.21. This is all strength schedule distorted.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't worry about that. But this line has already
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: moved up one. It is the first dog that I'm
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: going to take. I have taken the dog against Alabama
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: every week because Alabama is really, really young. This is
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: a desperate South Carolina team, and I think the name
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: of the game is to just get out of Dodge
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: and hope that you don't lose, right? Twelve and a half.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: Do I think Bama can win by 14? Yes, absolutely.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, the model has it. Bama minus 14.31. But
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: I just told you the last two years, Alabama has
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: beaten South Carolina by two and by seven. I can
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: see backdoor covers. I can see all kinds of things
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: happening here. I'm going to take South Carolina plus 12.5.
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: Shane Beamer is fighting for his life right here because
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: they need something big to happen. Dylan Stewart, last game
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: was his first game back. Peek is back on the
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: offensive line. They got some real dudes. Let's just see
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: what happens from there. I'm curious to see what this
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: is going to look like. But yeah, I will take
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: the Gamecocks, plus 12.5. Game number 7, 2.30 p.m. Central
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: Time on CBS. And this one is Michigan hosting Iowa
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: this week. Michigan opened a 4.5-point favorite. They are up
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: to 5.5-point favorites at home. The total... is at 38.5,
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: and there's already money on the under because it opened
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: at 39.5. Just wow. Both of these teams are 3-0.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: It is the lowest total on the board for this week.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: The last time out, Michigan won 52-17 over UTEP. They
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: trailed 14-7. They led 17-14 at the half, and then
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: 28 unanswered points in the third quarter. It was Underwood's
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: best game, 19 out of 25 passing, 230-ish yards, two touchdowns.
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: seven sacks, 11 tackles for loss, a pick six for
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: the defense. Week two, the game that everybody should pay
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: attention to, they beat number 11 Oklahoma 17-10. I don't
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: know if that's even really a super impressive win or
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: not because I don't like that Oklahoma offense. But either way,
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: Iowa has three wins. They're 3-0. They beat Northern Illinois.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: They beat Northern Iowa. And they beat Iowa State. They
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: have allowed 27 total points all year. They won last
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: week 55-0. So, something to pay attention to. The last
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: meeting between these two teams, Michigan won 26-0 in the
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: 2023 Big Ten Championship game. Both programs completely different since 2023. Storylines,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: this is Whittingham's first Big Ten game at Michigan. Whittingham
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: just ripped the UTEP first half. I mean, they lacked passion,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: they lacked energy, all that kind of stuff. They got
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: it fixed in the second half, certainly. Underwood's development is
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: going to be the story of the season. He is
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: now facing the best passing defense that he's going to see.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Iowa is number six nationally in pass defense. Yeah, I mean,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: this is going to be wild. It's going to be
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: a wild game. Michigan has allowed 39 points. In three games,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: Iowa has allowed 27. I mean, do you trust either
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: one of these teams to score here? I don't know
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: that I do. The running back Jordan Marshall got banged
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: up against UTEP. He was already hurt from the Oklahoma game.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: He was seen limping. You know, we'll see what that
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: ends up meaning. Reports say that three key Michigan players
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: got dinged up. I mean, the Big Ten is... Big
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Ten ain't going to post anything until just before kickoff. So,
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: looking at the numbers, the model has Michigan minus 2.7. Now,
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: my power rating has Michigan minus 7.6, but the stats,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: the stats don't like Michigan's offense at all. Number 83
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: in offensive success rate, number 110 in rushing success rate,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: number 68 in PPA per drive. But, Number 63 in
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule because Western Michigan is a legit team.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: Iowa is number 149 in current strength of schedule at Sagarin.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: Excuse me. Iowa's defense against that week's schedule. Number one
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: in defensive success allowed. Number three in rushing success. Number
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: three in passing success. Number one in standard down success allowed.
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: Where is it? There we go. Standard down success. Number
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: eight in standard down PPA allowed. allowed. Michigan, number 82
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: in standard down PPA. It's going to be hard for
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: them to stay ahead of the chains here. And what else?
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: Red zone trips allowed. Iowa's number one. Points per drive allowed.
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: Iowa's number one. Points per game. Iowa number one. Yeah. Yeah.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: And the fact that Michigan's offense is just bad, I
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: don't even know where to go with that. Iowa's average
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: starting field position is number five in the country. Now again,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: They have played awful teams. Strength of schedule is number 149.
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: Like there are five factors, like the raw five factors.
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: Iowa is number four, but adjusted for talent and strength
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: of schedule, number 46. Michigan's jumps from number 54 up
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: to number 26. There's a lot going on there. Michigan
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: number 106 in penalties per game. Michigan's turnover margin, Also
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: number 106, you cannot turn the ball over against Iowa.
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: They will absolutely take advantage. Iowa is number 70 in
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: fourth downs attempted per game. 1.67 attempts per game. for
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Iowa's offense. Ferentz likes to punt. He likes to play
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: field position. As far as trends go, there's not a
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: ton that fit here. Not with Kyle Whittingham being a
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: first-year head coach here, etc. Whittingham, as a 10-point or
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: less home favorite, 1-3 since 2024. That's 25%. Those are
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: Utah numbers. Iowa as a road dog, 1-2 against the
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: spread in the last three years, well, since 2024. Michigan
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: as a less than 14-point home favorite, 3-1 against the spread.
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: Only four-game sample size. I mean, we're not talking about much.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: The best sample that we've got on the board is
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: Iowa against Big Ten teams. Since 2024, they are 12-5-1
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: against the spread. That's 71% over 18 games. Best sample
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: we got out of all of this. And I will
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: tell you, I kind of trust the model here. I'm
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: going to go with Iowa to cover. I don't trust
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: this Michigan offense. I don't think Underwood is going to
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: magically perform better against a better defense. I don't believe
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: that Iowa's defense is necessarily better than Oklahoma's, but I
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: don't think they're going to let him run the ball
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: on them. Like the number three in rushing success rate allowed,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: number 17 in offensive line yards allowed, number three in
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: rushing explosiveness allowed, and that Michigan offense is number 119
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness. If Marshall is dinged up, I mean,
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: that's rough. They do have the freshmen back there. But
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: either way, I will take. I mean, this thing is
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: still sitting five and a half. It opened four and
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: a half, so there's been some Michigan money come in. And,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: you know, you look at overall talent, Michigan number 13,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: Iowa number 34. I don't think Iowa wins the game,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: but this feels very field goal-ish. This feels like the
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: Cy Hawk trophy, right? You know, it's always a three-point game.
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: One direction or the other. I think Michigan can win
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: this by a field goal. I feel pretty good about that,
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: and that's what the model says. Model has Michigan minus 2.7.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: I'm going to side with the model. Give me Iowa
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: plus 5.5 in the big house. I think this is
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: going to be a very, very tight game. Very tight game. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 52:00
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• 52:03
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• 52:07
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• 52:12
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• 52:16
  Speaker 1: and never miss an episode. Of course, make sure that
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: you leave a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: everywhere you get podcasts. Game number eight, 3.15 p.m. Central
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: Time on the SEC Network. Vanderbilt travels to the Plains
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: to take on the Auburn Tigers. Auburn opened a 9.5-point favorite.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: That is where it sits right now. A total of 52.5
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: on it. Vanderbilt, 3-0. Neither team ranked, but it is
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: the SEC opener for Vandy last week. I mean, Vandy
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: should almost feel ashamed. That was ridiculous. NC State had
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: that ballgame win. Vanderbilt was down 17 points in the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: second half, and Miles Capers... forced a fumble in the
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: end zone. Vandy recovered the fumble in the end zone
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: to win the game. They were down by three when
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: it happened. They never led until the final second of
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: the game. Just nuts. And saved Jared Curtis because he
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: threw an interception with like a minute two left at
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: the two-yard line as they were trying to go down
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: and win the ball game, but Either way, Vandy wins
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: 35-31 over NC State. Auburn, on the other hand, lost
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: at home 44-39 to Florida. Now, Florida, I think, is
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: a significantly better team than NC State, but regardless, you
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: look at the current strength of schedule for both of
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: these teams, Vandy No. 77, Auburn No. 25. Auburn has
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: played Baylor and Florida already. Golish called the first three
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: drives abysmal by his offense. Three straight three and outs.
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: Byron Brown was 20 of 35, 271 yards, three touchdowns,
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: one pick, 65 rushing yards. The offensive line gave up
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: seven sacks. Now, Vanderbilt's defense, number 18 in Havoc Rate.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: Clark Lee likes to get after the passer. We'll see
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: if running Brown out of the pocket is going to
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: change anything for this. The last meeting between these two
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: was in Nashville last year. D.J. Durkin took over as
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: the interim head coach. 45-38 overtime win for Diego Pavia
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: and company. 2024, Vandy won 17-7 on the Plains, so
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: Vandy has won the last two meetings here. It's so
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: hard to believe that Vanderbilt would beat this team twice,
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: but Auburn finds ways to lose ballgames routinely. Just the
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: way it goes. Auburn number 16 in overall team talent.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: Vandy is number 43. Vandy number eight in special teams efficiency,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: doing really well there. You start looking into some of
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: the storylines. Jared Curtis, this is his first SEC road start.
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: That's not good. Auburn, it feels like a crisis already.
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, the whole thing's just bonkers, just bonkers. Byron Brown,
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: five touchdowns, four interceptions in three games already. He does
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: lead the SEC in career quarterback starts, so that's something
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Auburn had five touchdown drives against Florida.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: That is something that the last staff managed twice in
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: two SEC seasons. So there are improvements, but when you
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: lose at home and you give up 44 points, it's
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: kind of rough. Kind of rough. The local coverage has
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: kind of been all over them. Injuries, Aaron Bryant is
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: out for the season for Vanderbilt. Jamison Curtis, Jalen Lackey,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: both week to week. Tight end Cole Spence may return
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: this week. Auburn, the edges, Deshaun Womack and Chris Murray
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: are back. Womack had a pick against Florida. Something to
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: pay attention to there. As far as the numbers go,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: Auburn number one in plays per game. They were number
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: two in pace, but they were number 137 in defensive
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: plays faced. The tempo, it feels like, could be drowning
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: their own defense. Like, that's... Just a guess. Defense is
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: number 79 in PPA allowed per drive. Number 53 in
• 56:19
  Speaker 1: success rate allowed, but they're number 93 against the pass.
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: Luckily for them, Vanderbilt is number 97 in passing success rate.
• 56:27
  Speaker 1: They're only number 73 in offensive success rate, number 69
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: in PPA per drive on offense. So not great. Auburn,
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: their defensive red zone conversion percentage, it's 90%. It's number
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: 94 in the country. Come down here and take a
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: look at that. That's not good, but Vanderbilt is only
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: number 81. They are 84.62% offensive red zone conversion percentage,
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: but they are number 56 in red zone touchdown rate.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: Pretty even, pretty average, and Auburn's defense is just about
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: the same. Auburn, net points per drive, number 73. Their
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: PPA margin is number 82. And their offensive red zone
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: conversion percentage is number 113. Some of that can be
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: explained by number 99 in giveaways per game, so their
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: turnover margin is actually number 68. Vandy doesn't turn it
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: over as much as Auburn. As far as finishing drives,
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity for Vanderbilt, number 110, but Auburn's
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: defense is number 96 on that. On the other side,
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Auburn's offense... Number 68 in points per scoring opportunity. Vandy's
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: defense is number 25. So Auburn, not great at finishing drives.
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: We're going to see if that continues because obviously we're
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: only three games into the season. Um, Vandy QBR number
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: three nationally. Uh, Curtis has been pretty efficient. Vanderbilt's been
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: pretty sloppy. Number 128 in penalties per game. Uh, Auburn
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: is number 93 in penalties per game, but they are
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: number one in opponent penalties per game. So that's something
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to. Vandy's first half, number 78 in
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: first half point margin. So not great in the first half,
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: but in the second half, they are plus 12, number
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: 23 in the country. Auburn starts out at number 30,
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: and then they fade back to number 33. So something
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: to pay attention to Uh, as far as trends, Vandy
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: as an underdog, 12 and three against the spread in
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: the last 15, uh, since 2024, Clark Lee as a
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: road dog, eight and one against the spread and Golesh
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: as a home favorite, seven and one against the spread. Now,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: some of that goes all the way back to South Florida. Um,
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: actually all of that goes back to South Florida. Interesting.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: 88% over eight games. Uh, So head-on collision as far
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: as Clark Lee being able to cover as a road dog. etc.
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: And then Golash as a home favorite. Something to look
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: at there. Again, this number sitting at Auburn minus 9.5.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: It hadn't moved in a total of 52.5. The model
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: has Auburn minus 5.36. I think after losing last week
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: and the way that Vanderbilt was able to win that game,
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: I think Auburn takes it out on them. Power rating
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: only has Auburn minus 7.9. Stats and whatnot. Now again,
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: Vandy number 77 strength of schedule, Auburn number 25. I
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: think Auburn wins this going away. I think the talent
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: difference is too stark. Is that the right word? Y'all
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: tell me in the comments. On three talent range, Auburn
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: number 16, Vandy number 43. I think Auburn is waiting
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: to take it out on somebody. I'm going against the trend.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: I'm going against the model. I'm going against everything. I'm
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: going against all of it. Give me Auburn minus 9.5.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: I think they win this one going away pretty easily.
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: So I will take the Auburn Tigers minus 9.5 at home.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Game number nine, we move to the Big Ten. And
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: this one, you're going to need your streamer for this one.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: This is a Peacock streaming only game between Wisconsin and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 1: Penn state in happy Valley, Penn state, a nine and
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: a half point home favorite total of 44 and a
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: half on this one. So not a lot of points
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: expected here. Wisconsin comes in at two and one. Obviously
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: they lost the opener to Notre Dame, but it looked
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: great since then. Penn state number 13 in the country
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: in the latest AP poll, they are three and oh,
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: this is Matt, uh, Matt Campbell's first big 10 game
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: in the first homecoming game at Penn state. Uh, Don't
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: hunt for this on TV. You gotta have Peacock for
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: this one. The last time out for both of these teams,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Penn State 55-13, winners over Buffalo. Buffalo is awful. Awful.
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: They also beat Marshall 45-0. They beat Temple 27-9. Three
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: G6 blowouts. We got zero information about this team. Wisconsin
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: 54-10 over Eastern Michigan their last time out. They're the
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: only team that's been tested here. And they played Notre
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 1: Dame well for a while. But, you know, Even still,
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: even with that Notre Dame game, number 134 in current
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, Penn State number 125. That's wild. That's
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: so wild. Anyway, the last meeting between these two was
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: in 2024. Penn State won 28-13 at Camp Randall. Penn
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: State leads the series 12-9. They have won six straight
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: against Wisconsin. Campbell never faced Wisconsin at Iowa State. As
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: far as storylines... we still don't really know about the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: happy Valley cyclones, right? Like it 24 Iowa state players
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: are on this roster. That includes the quarterback. Um, you know,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: Beck has been pretty good. Like in his first two games,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: five 39 yards, seven touchdowns, 76%, uh, completion percentage fickle, um,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: is 17 and 21 in Madison, like a two year
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: postseason drought. Colton Joseph is the old dominion transfer at quarterback.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: He's done pretty well. Uh, And he's healthy. So they're
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: this far in the season. They haven't lost him yet.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: That's a good thing. The path for Penn State to
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: make it to the playoff is pretty wide open. Ohio
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: State has already lost. Oregon has already lost. Penn State's
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: got a soft schedule. You've got to win the games, though.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: And it's games like this that matter. Looking at the numbers, again,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: Penn State a 9.5 point home favorite. My power rating
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: has Penn State minus 14. The stats projected spread has
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: Penn State minus 20. But again, Wisconsin has played an
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: actual team and Penn State has not. Penn State is
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: number 7 in PPA margin, number 13 in PPA per
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: drive on offense, 24th on defense. They have walloped really
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: bad teams. I mean, just destroyed them. And the offense
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: still hasn't really been able to run the ball. Number
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: 105 in rushing success rate against those kind of teams?
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think that's very good. However, Wisconsin, number 47
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: in rushing success rate allowed, but they are number 87
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per rush, number 135 in stuff rate,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: number 116 in standard downs, predictive points added. This is
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: an interesting spot. Wisconsin, number 91 in special teams efficiency.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: Penn State is number 10. Penn State, way more overall talent,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: number 18 in overall talent rank. Wisconsin is number 49.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: And this Wisconsin offense... is not exactly the most efficient.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: They're number 94 in offensive success rate, number 128 in
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: rushing success. I mean, it's just not good. Penn State's
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: defense is top five basically everywhere. Number two in success,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: number four in passing success allowed, number four in points
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: allowed per drive, number three in points allowed per game.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: Penn State has not turned the ball over a single time.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: They're number one nationally. Pretty wild. Pretty wild there. They
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: are number 9 in turnover margin because they're only number
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: 29 in takeaways per game. Wisconsin is 68th in turnover margin,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 1: number 48 in giveaways per game, number 79 in takeaways
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: per game. So that is something to pay attention to.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: Penn State's only real flaw is their red zone touchdown
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: rate is number 112. They get down into the red zone,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: and they have to kick. You've got to be able
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: to finish drives. But against Wisconsin, it may not matter
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: because they can't move it. Number 94 in success rate,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: number 128 rushing. I mean, I told you all that.
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: Their red zone touchdown rate is number 127. Yeah, right there.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: Just bleh. But they also kick field goals. So, like,
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: their number one in offensive red zone conversion percentage, 100%,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 1: because they haven't missed a field goal down there. Penn
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: State is number 111 in offensive red zone conversion percentage
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: because their number 112 in red zone touchdown rate But also,
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 1: they miss kicks. Is what it is. As far as
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: points per scoring opportunity, they're number 58. That Wisconsin defense
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: is number 94. Wisconsin on the other side, number 117
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity. Not great. This is not
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: great stuff. The second half point margin is just ridiculous.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Looking at, I mean, 9.5 is pretty crazy. Wisconsin is
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: a 7-plus point road dog, 3-2. Campbell is a less
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: than 14-point home favorite, 7-4, that's 64%. Looking at the total,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: this is an interesting total, sitting at 44.5. Right now,
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: my stats projected total is 58. Again, take it with
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: a grain of salt. No face value here because we
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: don't know what these teams are yet. Wisconsin with a
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: total under 45. Six overs and 13 unders. So 32%.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: That is a real under trend. If this thing goes
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: down a little further, I might be tempted to play
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: the over. But not a whole lot. My model has
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: Penn State minus 19.74%. I don't feel great about it.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: Like at all. Um, but even my power rating has
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: Penn state by 14. I do think Wisconsin is greatly improved.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: This is the first real test for Penn state. So
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: that number being way off from my power rating makes
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: me real wary. I don't feel great about that. So, uh,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: But knowing that, I'm going to side with the model
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: in this. I think Penn State finds a way to
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: win this by double digits. I think they are the
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: better overall team. I think they've got way more talent.
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 1: I think they're more experienced. And that defense, Denton Lynn,
• 1:07:39
  Speaker 1: I think is going to be able to draw up
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: ways to stop. I mean, they're number two in the
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: country in defensive success rate allowed. I don't think Colton
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: Joseph is a great thrower. Yeah. Number 102 in passing
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: success rate. Number 69 in QBR. Or QBR allowed, excuse me. Yeah,
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: here we go. Number 126 in yards per attempt passing
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 1: the ball. Number 128 in QBR for Wisconsin. So, I
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about it. These numbers, by the way,
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: are before we get to garbage time. So that's why
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: Wisconsin's numbers look kind of blah, even though they've blown
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: out a couple of teams. I'm going to go Penn
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: State here. Another favorite, another home favorite. But it's less
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: than 10, so I'm going to roll with it. Give
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: me Penn State minus 9.5. Again, the model is 10
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: points off of that. Penn State minus 19.74. But I
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: will take Penn State to cover. I'll side with the model.
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: Game number 10, this one 6.45 p.m. Central Time on
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: the SEC Network, Mississippi State. A three-and-a-half point home favorite
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: over the Missouri Tigers. This is a top 25 game.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: Night game in Starkville. Sneaky good late game. Both of
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: these teams are undefeated. Feeling good. Total is 58-and-a-half on
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 1: this one. Missouri looked good against Kansas. Did not look
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: good against Troy last week. Mississippi State has looked good
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: against everybody because that Camario Taylor kid is outrageous. But
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: we got an Austin Simmons versus Camario Taylor game, and
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: I'm excited about it. The model hates my allergies is
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: what it does. Good gracious. Trying to record this is
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 1: just a nightmare sometimes. The model has Mississippi State minus 6.5.
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: My power rating has State minus 3.7, so it's almost
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: right on the spread range. This thing opened at 3.5.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: It is still sitting at 3.5. The total, again, 58.5
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: on this. Last time out for both of these teams,
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State won 41-34 at South Carolina last week. They
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: also beat Louisiana Monroe 62-13. They had 762 yards in
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: that one, and they won at Minnesota 38-13. Missouri 27-17
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: over Troy last week. They also blew out Arkansas Pine
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: Bluff and they beat Kansas on the road. Uh, so
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: last week against Troy might've been a little bit of
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: a hangover from the rivalry game, but alas is what
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: it is. These two teams met last year and Missouri
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: won 49 to 27 in Columbia. Uh, the last time
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: they played in Starkville was 2024. Missouri won that one
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: 39 to 20. So they have won the last two
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: by 19 points and by 22 points. Um, Camario is
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: the breakout of the season. Everybody loves this guy, and
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: he's fantastic. He's a sophomore, leads the SEC in passing yards.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: Last season, he was mostly a runner, about 500 rushing yards,
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: had 28 missed tackles, forced on 74 carries. That's crazy.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: This is the start of a gauntlet for Missouri. It
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: is the first of five straight ranked SEC opponents. Like, crazy.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Excuse me. I wrote that down. I put M-I-S-S. It's
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State. So Missouri is the first of five straight
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: ranked SEC opponents for Mississippi State. They play Missouri. They
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: host Alabama. They play LSU, Oklahoma, and Texas all in
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: a row. That's rough. Lebby, 2-10, then 5-7. One SEC
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: win in two years before they beat South Carolina last week. State,
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: 1-21 in their last 22 SEC games when trailing at halftime.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: pretty wild. Missouri's quarterback, I told you about Austin Simmons.
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: He was named QB1 out of the spring. Garrett Riley
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: is the new quarterback's coach. That is an App State
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: reunion with Drinkwits. Garrett Riley went from TCU where he
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: played for a national championship, etc. Goes to Clemson as
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 1: the offensive coordinator and doesn't really get to run his offense.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: Now he's back as a quarterback's coach and is doing
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 1: wonderful things with Austin Simmons. So I don't really like
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Chip Lindsey, the offensive coordinator, but I like Garrett Riley.
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: Zach Arnett, the former Bulldogs head coach and the defensive
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: coordinator under Mike Leach, he is back as the defensive
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: coordinator at Mississippi State now. I like the hire. The
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: defense has been pretty good. Number 34 in PPA allowed
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: per drive. They were number 37 in success rate allowed.
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: That ain't bad. That's a significant improvement. Their strength of
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: schedule is number 14. Missouri is number 128. These are
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: both per Sagarin. I think that the state one, like
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: Minnesota and South Carolina, okay. I don't know that that's
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: the number 14 best strength of schedule, but regardless. As
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 1: far as some of the numbers here, again, we've only
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: got three sets of data from both of these teams.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: So we can talk about some of the biggest discrepancies
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. State's offense is elite. I mean, the success
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: rate is number six, as you see there. Passing success
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: number five, rushing success number five, available yards on offense
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: number six. Yeah. I mean, this offense is awesome. Missouri's defense, though,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: is really good. Number nine in success allowed. Number eight
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: in passing success allowed. Number five in havoc rate. Yeah.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: PPA allowed per drive. Number 12. They are really good.
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: The question for Missouri is the offense. I mean, you
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: get down here and there's all kinds of questions. PPA
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: per rush, number 111. Their success rate is number 91 overall.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: Rushing success, number 127. Like, these are not great. Red
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: zone conversion, they're number 111. Red zone touchdown rate is
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: number 112. These are not good things. These are not
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: good things. Mississippi State's defense is the other part of this,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: and some of this might have to do with tempo
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 1: and whatnot, because they're number 111 in plays faced on defense.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: And part of that might be because of the pace
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: of play. They're number 10 in plays per minute. So
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: they run... 2.47 plays per minute. That's wild. That's really wild.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: Turnovers tend to favor Missouri here. Missouri number 23 in
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: turnover margin. They're number 29 in takeaways per game. Mississippi
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: State only number 107 in takeaways per game. So if
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: anybody's going to generate a turnover, it's probably Missouri. Penalty
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: circus here. State 9.3 per game. That's number 128. Number
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: 106 for Missouri on that The first half is, I think,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: the most interesting here because Mississippi State is number two
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 1: in first half point margin. Missouri is number 61. If
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State doesn't get a good lead early, Missouri is
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: number 11 in second half point margin. Mississippi State is
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: only number 33. So getting a fast start is pretty
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: important for Mississippi State I think they're probably going to
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 1: do that. Missouri as a road dog is 1-4 against
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: the spread since 2024. Mississippi State as a 3-plus point
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 1: home favorite, 5-1 since 2024. That is 83%. Both super small,
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: both just basic noise. But when one is 5-1 and
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: the other is 1-4, you kind of pay attention to
• 1:16:07
  Speaker 1: it a little bit. Again, the model has state minus 6.5.
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: The spread is state minus 3.5. My power rating is
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: State minus 3.7, but the stats projected model has Mississippi
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: State minus 6.5. Night game in Starkville, and they are
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: going to be bananas because both of the last two
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: games have been on the road, and they have looked outstanding.
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: This thing's going to be sold out. They are going
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: to be loud. The cowbells will be ringing. I think
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: they're going to cover the number. I'm going to side
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 1: with the model. Model again, Mississippi State minus 6.5. I
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: will side with that. Give me Mississippi State minus three
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: and a half. I think they will be undefeated when
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: Alabama comes to town in week number five. All right,
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: and the recap will go up along with some notes
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: and whatnot. The recap will go up on buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 1: If you're not already a member, you can support the
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: show that way. It's five bucks a month, 50 bucks
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: for the year. I post official plays over there. So
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: far on the season, I am up, and I will
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: tell you The actual number. I went 9-2 against the
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: spread last week. So that is something to pay attention to.
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: Here we go. Alright, so for this season, I'm already
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: up 8.5 units. That is 30.78% ROI. So if you
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: want those plays and whatnot, go to buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: and sign on up. All of these sheets that you
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: have seen, you will get those as well. I post
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: those early in the week so that you can also
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: dive into them, check them out for yourself. With that said,
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: it's time to get out of here. We will do
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: the 15 next ones, 15 more games, on the next video. So,
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: hopefully I'll see you there. Like the video, jump in
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: the comments, tell me what you think about these plays,
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: tell me who you're taking, etc. I would love to
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: hear from you. With that said, take care of yourself,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: take care of each other, God bless college football, and
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: hopefully all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a review or comment,
• 1:18:29
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