Latest / Best of Business / Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on food prices dropping for the first time in six years

Transcript

Liam Dann: NZ Herald business editor at large on food prices dropping for the first time in six years · Best of Business

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: You're listening to a podcast from News Talks Be follow
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: this and our wide range of podcasts now on iHeartRadio.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: Now. Annual food prices have dropped, as I was telling you,
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: for the first time in six years, which is fantastic,
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: and the degree decrease was driven by lower prices for tomatoes,
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: cheese and potatoes. Liam dan is The Herald's Business editor
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: at large and with us now Alim good a header.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: How big is this in terms of the factoring that
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: the decision making for the Reserve Bank this particular set
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: of data.
• 0:38
  Speaker 3: Well, it's a subset, I guess, so it's not as
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: big as what we get next Wednesday. So what we
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: got today, I think we're all learning about.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: You.
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: You know, people know the difference now non tradable and tradable.
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: You've got your your domestic inflation and your stuff that
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: comes in from imported prices and so on, and so
• 0:55
  Speaker 3: the Reserve Bank's worried about the non tradable stuff. There's
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of tradable stuff in here. So we knew
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: it was coming off. We knew, you know, after the
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: cycclones of last year that fruit and veg was going
• 1:04
  Speaker 3: to look a lot better cheese prices are looking pretty
• 1:08
  Speaker 3: good in the supermarket right now, which you know, ironically
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: is not great for the economy because you probably hear
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: a bit later that it's not good for the farmers.
• 1:15
  Speaker 3: But so so you know, we're seeing that stuff. Petrol
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: was down across the year. That's good. But what the
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: Reserve Bank really needs to see is the service sect,
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: the rates, the insurance, all that non tradable stuff, and
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: we get most of that next week in the full
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: CPI inflation data. So that's when we'd you know, possibly
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: get some numbers that might justify that kind of sort
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: of optimistic turn we've seen in the last twenty four
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: hours or so.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: So the reason it's come back largely is fruit and
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: veggies down sixteen percent. But then on the other side,
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: olive oil has it a massive price surge. One leader
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: is up nearly fifty percent to twenty bucks. Has your
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: family switched away? Have you guys got rape seed oil?
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: Yet? Good? Good, good point. I've been talking about the
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: team go with with the missus, go with it yet?
• 2:09
  Speaker 3: Well no, actually I do the cooking so but but
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: but the team at work, you know, go with the
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: cheaper oil. Put a splash of extra virgin and then
• 2:16
  Speaker 3: you've you've kind of got yourself a cheap olive oil substitute. Well,
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: I don't know if it's a fact, I just made
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: it up, but it seems to work. I mean, you know, olive,
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: the extra virgin's got all the flavor and it's price.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: It's slightly more expensive, but you use a tiny bit
• 2:29
  Speaker 3: of that with some cheaper, cheaper oil. But yeah, that's crazy.
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: That's down to you know, that's down to what's what's
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: happened in Spain and Italy and it's it's one of
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: those shocks, and it's an interesting shock because it's one
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: of those things that reminds us that we need to
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: get our own domestic inflation down because we have no
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: control over the stuff that goes on around the world.
• 2:48
  Speaker 3: You know, we could we could see petrol prices spike again.
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: Something bad could or probably will happen in the world
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: in the next year or so. So you know, we
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: can't rely on just you know, global prices going our way.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: We've we've kind of got to get it under control
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: in New Zealand and yeah, hopefully we're nearly there.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, now I know what you're going to say, Liam,
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: you're going to say, hither you always talk smack about
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: Adrian or but Liam, this flip flop is credibility damaging,
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: isn't it.
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: Well, yeah, I thought about this. I mean, look, I
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: was I was a little confused like everyone about the
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: September you know that that September forecast, And I guess
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: it was trying to talk tough to you know, to
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: get get to put the fear of God, I get
• 3:31
  Speaker 3: into the everyone in the economy, and it kind of worked,
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: and maybe it works too well. But look, it's it's
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: it's it's all a bit of a strategic game. All
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: the talking and speculating and what the markets do. In
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: the end, you've got to look at the results. And so, okay,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: there's a fair bit of criticism for inflation going too high,
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: that's that's one thing. But if you can get inflation
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: back in its box by the end of the year,
• 3:55
  Speaker 3: that's that's a result. So yeah, you know why what
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: they played it really tough and then they've softened it.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: No one going to that's the problem, no, no, no one,
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: No one believed it was going to so they didn't
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: have credibility.
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: So you basic you agree with me, they didn't have credibility.
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: Well, I think it's part of the game. I don't
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: know if it's I don't know if that you know,
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: Like again, what what counts is the If you're going
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: to argue the credibility line, I would say.
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: The most important thing is the inflation.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so that is a fair argument. That is around
• 4:25
  Speaker 3: what happened over the last year and a half. I mean,
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: you can talk about the global context and all that
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: sort of stuff, but it was well outside the box,
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: you know. But can they get it back down, that
• 4:35
  Speaker 3: will be there will be I mean, I think that'll
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: be a victory if they can get it back down
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: this year and they can keep unemployment under five something
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: like that, five point three, you know. Yep, but that's
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: that's me.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: You're going to have an opinion. That's that's why it's.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Allowed on opinion, and I appreciate that your opinion is
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: a positive opinion. Liam. Thank you, Liam Dan, the Herald's
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: Business editor at large.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: For more from News talks'd b listen live on air
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: or online and keep our shows with you wherever you
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: go with our podcasts on IR Radio