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What Happens Next in Trump’s War · Real Patriotism

0:00
It's week three of the USIsrael war
0:02
against Iran. When is it going to end?
0:05
What will the impact of this war be?
0:07
What will the world look like after?
0:09
These are huge questions because this is
0:11
a huge world event. And to answer those
0:14
questions, I couldn't think of a better
0:15
person than Ian Bremer. He's a political
0:17
scientist and founder of Eurasia Group,
0:19
which is one of the world's leading
0:21
global risk consulting firms. And
0:23
there's a lot of risk going on right
0:25
now. Uh Ian has really traveled the
0:28
world. He's got great sources around the
0:31
world, and he knows the Middle East
0:33
really, really deeply. And so I wanted
0:34
to talk to him about where the war is,
0:38
what the likely scenarios are going
0:40
forward, and then even most importantly,
0:42
what the world looks like after. It
0:45
feels like a break to me. It feels like
0:47
Donald Trump's decision to take this
0:49
country to war against Iran and the way
0:51
it's gone against his expectations
0:54
is a significant moment in our history.
0:58
and in the history of the world. So,
1:00
let's talk with Ian Bremer. Now, if you
1:02
like this conversation, hit subscribe,
1:05
hit like. We can use those. And without
1:07
further ado, my conversation with Ian
1:09
Bremer.
1:15
Ian Bremer, welcome. Great to see you.
1:17
>> Thank you, Terry.
1:19
So uh we talk now in the third week of
1:22
this war and there's a lot to talk about
1:26
but I want to begin with the beginnings
1:28
and how it began. I've read that I'm I
1:31
the thing that has troubled me the most
1:33
frankly is the complete lack of
1:37
democratic discussion of leadership from
1:41
the president not in going to war but in
1:44
talking to us to the American people
1:46
about war.
1:48
No one was asked, literally no one in
1:50
the country was asked whether or not we
1:52
wanted to go to war against Iran. And it
1:55
is such a gigantic
1:57
national effort. This is not, you know,
1:59
bombing Libya. I was I was there and
2:01
that probably should have been
2:02
authorized by Congress or at least had a
2:04
debate somehow somewhere. This is the
2:07
biggest national commitment since the
2:10
Iraq war and it belongs to one man. He
2:14
started it and he owns it as you've
2:16
pointed out. What what are the impacts
2:19
of that for us but also for the
2:22
prosecution of this war and its ultimate
2:24
end?
2:25
>> Um well I mean it's not new as you say
2:28
uh that uh the Americans are engaging in
2:31
war fighting um that uh is not going to
2:35
Congress is not following a process.
2:37
Democrats and Republicans in Congress
2:38
have given up on uh the constitutional
2:42
authority vested in them um to have the
2:45
powers over war. Uh, and that's been
2:47
true for many administrations now. We're
2:49
not about to change it. So, um, and
2:52
let's keep in mind, this isn't Trump's
2:54
first rodeo in Iran. He ordered the
2:57
assassination of Kasumsulammani at the
3:00
end of his first term. There was no
3:02
discussion of that. And while the
3:04
Israelis were the ones that started the
3:06
12-day war last year, the United States
3:10
was happy to help finish it. Again, no
3:13
discussion uh, here in the United
3:15
States. But you're right, Terry, this is
3:17
a much bigger war. Um, and you know,
3:21
it's not clear why it's a bigger war. It
3:24
doesn't need to be a bigger war, right?
3:25
I mean, the the threat to the United
3:27
States is roughly identical to what the
3:31
threat to the United States was during
3:33
the 12-day war. And and you know, Trump
3:36
said famously, infamously that the
3:38
nuclear capabilities were obliterated at
3:41
that point. That's an exaggeration. They
3:43
were significantly damaged. push back,
3:45
but the Iranians worked very hard to
3:47
rebuild them, and therefore there is a
3:49
clear interest in the United States in
3:52
in taking that out. Um, so I I I don't
3:56
think that there was a problem if Trump
3:59
had decided we're going to engage once
4:02
again in direct strikes against Iran's
4:06
military and even ballistic missile
4:08
capabilities. And most of that would
4:11
have been from the air. Some of that
4:13
could have been special forces, but what
4:15
what we are seeing instead is a regime
4:19
change operation. So far, a failed
4:22
regime change operation, but nonetheless
4:24
decapitation and those initial
4:26
decapitation strikes continuing just in
4:30
the last 24 hours with Ali Larani
4:33
nominally running the show uh on an
4:36
operational basis day-to-day uh over the
4:39
last uh three weeks. uh also uh the head
4:43
of the basge forces, the paramilitary
4:46
forces that are actually responsible for
4:49
all of the internal headbreaking uh that
4:51
we've seen in the country over the past
4:53
months and years. So the assassination
4:56
efforts continue. They also have seen
5:00
expansive attacks on on energy
5:02
infrastructure initially by Israel which
5:06
the Americans were not happy with. today
5:08
against South Par the largest gas fields
5:11
in the world uh which apparently the
5:14
United States uh authorized that it was
5:17
done the Israelis say it was done in
5:19
advanced coordination with the
5:21
Americans. So you are right Terry this
5:23
is an expansive war. We have 5,000
5:27
American troops that are heading over to
5:29
the region likely expected in some way
5:32
to be involved in ground action. um this
5:36
is this is going to affect it's already
5:38
affecting the global economy. It's
5:39
already affecting um the countries uh on
5:42
the ground in the region with well with
5:45
with u thousands and thousands of
5:47
casualties. Um and of course it's going
5:51
to affect our own servicemen and women.
5:53
So yeah, I I would say that this is uh
5:56
100% on the president. It's not on
5:59
Israel. It's not on the Congress. It's
6:02
not on the adviserss. is not even on the
6:04
American people that voted for him
6:05
because they weren't voting for forever
6:07
wars. They were voting on staying out of
6:09
this stuff. Trump individually decided
6:12
to do it and now he doesn't have anyone
6:15
to blame and he doesn't have an offramp
6:17
and as a consequence he's getting pretty
6:19
angry about this.
6:21
>> Yeah, he seems to be flailing. We're in
6:22
it now. He obviously had a thought that
6:25
it would be quick, relatively quick,
6:27
relatively easy. And as you just
6:29
outlined, this is this is it's not a
6:32
quagmire yet, but it's feeling a little
6:34
damp underfoot. Uh but but let me let me
6:36
challenge you on one thing because a lot
6:38
of people feel this. The notion that
6:42
yes, Trump started this war. Israel
6:44
would not have gone to war without the
6:46
United States. Not like this anyway.
6:47
Strikes maybe, but not like this.
6:49
>> And so there is a sense
6:53
Well, what do you think? Do you think
6:54
that Trump was bamboozled into this war
6:57
there? Tony Blinken, the former
6:59
Secretary of State, has said that while
7:02
he was Secretary of State uh under
7:05
President Biden, the Israelis made the
7:07
same kind of rush. We're going to go
7:08
strike Iran. You come with us or or you
7:11
know the war's going to start without
7:12
you. And they didn't take they thought
7:13
it was a bluff and they didn't buy into
7:15
it. Did Trump buy into a bluff? Was he
7:18
was he essentially kind of bamboozled
7:20
into this war? So I I don't f first of
7:23
all we don't have definitive evidence
7:25
either way. So Terry, your question is a
7:27
perfectly legitimate one and I think
7:29
reasonable minds can disagree. I don't
7:32
think so for a few reasons. First, Trump
7:36
has shown frankly better than Biden that
7:39
he's capable of saying no to the
7:41
Israelis. Um we saw that uh with the
7:44
phase one uh peace deal um which let's
7:48
face it um the Israelis did not want and
7:51
and Trump basically you know sort of
7:53
shouldered them into it uh and and we've
7:56
also saw that that when the Israelis
7:59
initially went in last year uh with
8:01
their strikes the United States didn't
8:04
engage chose to after it was successful
8:07
when there weren't many strikes back by
8:09
the Iranians but but let the Israelis go
8:12
by themselves. Um, so and I now I I I
8:17
think that Trump suffers from false
8:18
confidence. I think he believes that his
8:22
judgment is the right judgment on every
8:24
issue and therefore downplays uh
8:27
concerns by his own adviserss who have
8:30
far more expertise. I also think those
8:32
adviserss don't necessarily give him as
8:35
direct advice when it is contrary to his
8:38
own gut as they should. Um but but you
8:42
know this is a president who came off of
8:45
an incredibly successful Venezuela
8:47
operation on pretty much every front and
8:50
so was feeling very confident about
8:52
that. Also a president who had
8:54
experience directly engaging in strikes
8:57
against Iran on two occasions in both
8:59
cases the Iranian rhetoric and how they
9:02
were going to rain fire and brimstone
9:04
upon the American aggressors death to
9:06
America and it never came right. So you
9:10
know he clearly thought I can go bigger
9:13
this time and as and also he had been
9:17
told and I think accurately that the
9:20
86year-old supreme leader who the
9:22
Israelis assassinated was the principle
9:26
reason why you couldn't actually have
9:28
any meaningful conversations because
9:30
this guy was going to stop the Lara
9:33
Johnny's and the rest from really giving
9:37
anything on ballistic missiles. from
9:39
having a deal that would stop them from
9:42
stockpiling enriched uranium, all of the
9:45
rest. So, I I you put those things
9:47
together, yes, there's no question that
9:48
the is that the Israelis wanted the
9:50
Americans to go, but I I think Trump's a
9:52
big boy. I think he can make that
9:54
decision. And and I think that he said,
9:58
"We we gave them a shot. They went
10:00
nowhere. These negotiations are going
10:02
nowhere. I know if I get rid of this guy
10:05
and I show them the incredible might of
10:08
the American uh military force, um
10:12
they're then going to really do a deal
10:13
with me and I'm going to be a huge
10:15
winner. And that that is that is what I
10:17
think was Trump's decisionm. I don't
10:20
think that it was BB secretly pull
10:21
pushing the button. Absolutely not.
10:23
>> Yeah, that makes sense. On Iran though,
10:27
the killing of
10:29
Ayatollah Ham seems to have stiffened
10:32
the spine not just of the regime but of
10:35
major portions of the population as
10:37
well. And understandably they killed
10:40
their religious leader and and you know
10:42
the first several levels of a
10:44
desperately unpopular government
10:45
although you know it's probably got what
10:47
a third support in Iran and that seems
10:50
to have taken both the United States and
10:53
Israel by surprise. They expected that
10:56
there would be some kind of rising up,
11:00
right? That there'd be some kind of
11:01
regime change protest or whatever, and
11:04
there isn't. And so, how do you assess
11:08
Iran's
11:10
war plan here? And how much can it be
11:13
answered by the United States and Israel
11:16
in a way that brings this to a
11:17
successful conclusion?
11:19
>> Well, again, I don't see an offramp
11:21
anytime soon. Um and uh you know if
11:25
Trump can't you know blame anyone and he
11:29
can't declare victory escalation becomes
11:32
the most likely outcome even if it is a
11:35
very unwise outcome over the long term
11:38
for all um involved. Um I look I I don't
11:42
know how many Iranian people support the
11:44
regime. It's clearly a a minority. Um,
11:47
and the brutality of this regime against
11:50
its own people, um, is continuing to be
11:52
front of mind for most everybody. Um,
11:55
but but there's no question that when
11:58
you blow up their own capability to have
12:02
an economy, um, they're not blaming the
12:05
regime in toto for that. They're also
12:08
blaming the Israelis. They're also
12:09
blaming the Americans. And I mean the
12:11
one prediction that we can make quite
12:13
confidently is that the people that will
12:15
suffer the most at the end of this war
12:16
will have been the Iranian people.
12:17
>> Yeah.
12:18
>> Um before the war, during the war, after
12:20
the war. I mean I I wish that weren't
12:22
the case. I want this regime to fall.
12:24
Wanting it to fall is not a strategy. Um
12:26
and they don't have a strategy for
12:28
having it fall because there's no the
12:30
number of American troops on the ground
12:31
that would be required to make that
12:33
happen will not be provided in my view.
12:35
Um and also um the ability of the
12:38
Iranian people um to coalesce to
12:42
coordinate into an opposition that
12:44
presently doesn't exist. Um and also to
12:46
arm themselves to train themselves given
12:49
the capacity and the brutality yes of a
12:51
very damaged Iranian regime. But most of
12:55
that damage is about their conventional
12:58
military capabilities to project force
13:00
outside the country. Most of the damage
13:02
is not about what they can do to repress
13:04
inside the country, at least thus far.
13:07
So, right now, it is hard to see how the
13:10
Iranian people would overturn that
13:12
regime. And by the way, in the last 48
13:13
hours, Trump said that himself again
13:16
changing what he said at the beginning
13:17
of the war, rise up. It's going to be
13:20
time. I'm going to give you your
13:21
government back. Take it. And then now
13:23
it's no, I completely understand why
13:25
these people aren't rising up. You know,
13:27
I mean, again, he's flailing. He doesn't
13:29
the me the lack of a message for a guy
13:32
who like you know is is understands how
13:34
messages land how headlines are made
13:36
what his brand is made of that's the one
13:38
of the things that's most surprised
13:40
foreign leaders that have been watching
13:42
Trump over the last few weeks talking
13:44
with them in their conversations with me
13:45
they they really it it's been quite
13:47
something to see that they believe that
13:50
he's really like detached from reality
13:53
that he's in denial on this American
13:55
allies um around the world and you see
13:58
why they're not providing support. So
14:00
look, if you can't end the regime, then
14:03
the question is, well, you you already
14:05
have done a lot of damage. You have
14:07
destroyed their conventional navy.
14:10
You've blown up much of their ballistic
14:12
missile capability. You can't take out
14:15
their drones anytime soon, which is why
14:17
Marco Rubio didn't mention that the
14:19
drone capacity in his new war aims. So
14:23
then the core thing is how do you open
14:25
the straight? How do you at least
14:27
because you say, "Well, we blew them up.
14:29
We killed the leadership. We blew up
14:31
their military conventional capacity and
14:33
and now we've got the oil and gas and
14:35
the food and fertilizer and all the rest
14:37
is all trans is all getting out." But
14:39
that's not happening. And there as of
14:42
right now, there isn't a mechanism. I
14:45
mean, one of the aircraft carriers that
14:47
was sent to the region is now being sent
14:50
back to the Med because of a very
14:52
serious fire that did a lot of damage,
14:54
and it's going to have to be repaired,
14:56
and we don't know how long that'll take,
14:57
and it's going to have to come back.
14:59
>> Um, some of the literal ships that are
15:02
meant to be doing the escorting are
15:05
going to Malaysia for repairs. That's
15:07
going to take and that and the repair
15:09
minimum of 3 weeks, maybe longer. So,
15:13
um, you know, and, um, the briefings
15:17
that I've heard on on the escort, uh,
15:20
ships has been much more risky in terms
15:25
of the danger to the crews on the ships
15:28
escorting, not the tankers, the US
15:31
military. And so that that feels like a
15:34
more dangerous decision to make for the
15:38
United States. And again, I'm sure Trump
15:39
is enormously frustrated and angry about
15:41
this, but right now they do not have a
15:45
plan to get the ships out. Meanwhile, uh
15:49
the Iranians are not they're not sending
15:51
anywhere near the drones and missiles
15:52
they did in the first few days. But
15:54
Terry, the last nine days of strikes
15:57
from Iran have been almost consistent
16:01
every day. Same number of missiles every
16:03
day. And um and and the drone numbers
16:06
have actually ticked up a bit. I
16:08
wouldn't call it a pattern. It's too
16:09
early the last two three days, but
16:11
certainly the capacity to do that
16:12
consistently and you know it's not the
16:15
Iranians can continue to build drones um
16:18
during wartime and they can continue to
16:20
launch them. So what we've now seen this
16:23
morning is an attack a major attack on
16:27
South Par the the gas fields and and and
16:30
all of the infrastructure around that.
16:32
And the Iranians have said in return,
16:34
and they've actually announced, "Here
16:35
are all of the energy facilities that
16:37
we're going to attack around the Gulf."
16:39
The cutteries have said, "This was a
16:42
really bad idea. Why did you guys do
16:44
this?" No response yet as as of you and
16:47
I talking for uh from the United States.
16:50
But I mean, clearly um the Gulf States
16:53
are deeply concerned about what might
16:56
happen if their own energy
16:59
infrastructure goes boom. I mean, right
17:02
now, a lot of the energy is still
17:04
getting out. There's a major pipeline
17:06
across Saudi Arabia, 7 million barrels a
17:09
day. The UAE has a pipeline, too. About
17:12
another 2 million. The Iranians are
17:13
still getting their oil out because
17:15
nobody's hitting Iran's tankers, sending
17:18
it to China. That's another million
17:19
million plus. So, you know, let's say
17:22
half of the oil is getting out. They're
17:24
big natural gas problems, big fertilizer
17:27
problems, um big prochem, which is
17:30
plastic. So I mean that's going to
17:31
affect every consumer good in the wood
17:33
world. So it's not like again this is a
17:35
huge problem for months and months but
17:38
this it's not just the knock-on effects.
17:40
It's also that right now Terry we are
17:42
still in an escalatory environment. It's
17:46
not like you had this massive first day
17:48
of okay we tried the regime change but
17:50
now we're now we're kind of figuring out
17:52
how to end it. The the the plan for now
17:56
appears to continue to be escalation.
17:58
So, the the logic of the war as you see
18:00
it developing is that we're going to be
18:03
in it for a while and it's going to get
18:04
worse.
18:05
>> Uh I have a very hard time seeing us out
18:08
of it in the next few weeks.
18:10
>> Um and and it appears to me uh both
18:14
imminently because the Iranians are
18:16
going to try to respond to the Southpar
18:19
strikes and also in the medium term
18:22
because the Americans will engage with
18:24
some form of ground forces. Uh there are
18:27
two three places that I think ground
18:29
forces are actively being considered. Um
18:32
the first is because Iran has these
18:36
major enriched uranium stockpiles all in
18:40
enough for some 10 11 nuclear weapons.
18:42
That is a core component of the concerns
18:45
which America rightly has in my view and
18:48
taking those out would require a
18:52
significant commando force on the
18:54
ground. So that's one. Number two is
18:57
that if you can't get rid of the regime,
18:59
um it's very hard to stop them from
19:01
making money. And if they're making huge
19:04
amounts of money, we know what that
19:05
money is being spent on. So that's why
19:07
the Americans are considering occupying
19:10
Car Island, which is where 90% of
19:14
Iranian oil is actually exported from.
19:18
That's those are the terminals. That's
19:19
where the tankers come in. It's also
19:22
right off of the Iranian coast. So their
19:25
potential to make strikes at the
19:27
American soldiers there would be very
19:29
significant, quite dangerous thing to
19:30
do. There'd be a lot of casualties
19:32
probably. And then finally, the
19:34
potential of the United States to take
19:36
and hold some territory along the
19:40
southern Iranian coast that would help
19:42
to protect the strait from drone
19:45
strikes, right, and from artillery and
19:47
and th that is also again those things.
19:51
The president's been briefed on all of
19:53
these things. It is his decision. You
19:56
asked me at the beginning. No one else
19:58
is making this decision. President's
20:00
making the decision. You saw it from Heg
20:02
Seth. He's got his hand on the throttle.
20:04
He will decide when the war goals are
20:06
met. There is no one else making the
20:08
decision. Not the vice president, not
20:10
the secretary of state, not the national
20:12
security adviser, who happens to be the
20:13
same person as the secretary of state,
20:15
not the head of national intelligence,
20:17
not the secretary of defense or war.
20:19
Pick your poison. you know, none of
20:21
those people. It is Trump. It is Trump.
20:24
And uh and I I I mean, I wish this
20:27
weren't the case, but I I fear this is
20:30
the worst foreign policy decision he has
20:33
made as president. Uh and it is going to
20:36
be consequential for him for the
20:38
remainder of his time in office. I think
20:41
it will be a legacy issue. Venezuela was
20:43
such a success.
20:45
>> The Abraham Accords were such a
20:47
staggering success. and um and the
20:50
12-day war was a success in Iran and and
20:52
and this to me uh feels very very uh
20:57
unsuccess. It is still early uh but in
21:00
my view the likelihood is it can still
21:03
get worse. It is not that we're going to
21:05
pull a rabbit out of the hat here. It
21:07
does feel like that was that was
21:10
completely what it feels like when you
21:11
see Trump and this is something that's
21:15
bigger than all of his all of his
21:18
capacity to kind of BS his way out of
21:20
trouble, right? You can't BS a war,
21:22
right? The the forces that have been
21:24
unleashed uh within the United States
21:27
military and our own national interests
21:28
and in the interests of other countries
21:30
and the enemy obviously has a say, you
21:33
can't kind of flimflam your way out of
21:34
it. There's no
21:36
>> there's no slogan.
21:37
>> He said that, you know, it was
21:38
unacceptable to have this supreme
21:40
leader. He he said Mushtaba is no good.
21:43
Got to go. Now he's not saying that.
21:45
Said he's got to be person that
21:47
ultimately picks who the leader is going
21:48
to be. Now he's not saying that. Said he
21:50
had to have the allies in. Then
21:52
yesterday he said, "No, he doesn't need
21:54
the allies. We can do it himself." Then
21:56
today he just posted on Truth Social an
21:58
article that says the allies need to
22:00
join. I mean, you know, it was one thing
22:02
when he said he could end the war
22:04
between Russia and Ukraine in 24 hours.
22:06
And to be fair, he did not say 24
22:08
consecutive hours. So, I mean, you never
22:09
know, right? You never know. But, but
22:11
but he took a lot of heat for that,
22:13
right? Because it was obvious that he
22:15
couldn't get it done. So, he couldn't
22:17
flim flam his way out of the fact that
22:18
he has failed to end the war between
22:21
Russia and Ukraine. But he has succeeded
22:24
on Israel Gaza beyond Biden and he had
22:27
some success in India Pakistan and
22:29
Armenia Azarbaijan. So I mean you know
22:31
there there's a story there. He could go
22:33
around and say I'm the peace president
22:35
here. There is no story. There is no
22:38
story. It is only you sir. You
22:41
singularly have made it worse.
22:44
>> It is on you my friend. And and and he
22:47
right now he has no way to spin that.
22:50
None. and and you can feel that and it's
22:53
alarming. But I want to get to the Gulf
22:55
States which you raised. This seems to
22:57
me like an extinction event for the
23:00
dream that has been building in that
23:03
part of the world for decades. The
23:05
astonishment of of Dubai and of UAE and
23:09
and the way that they became major world
23:13
players because of energy but not alone
23:16
of energy. There was, you know, they
23:18
Formula 1, the World Cup. They had
23:21
cultural reach. They had a stature in
23:24
the world that came from their vast
23:27
resources, but also from how they
23:30
>> built up their countries to be players
23:34
to and for post uh carbon a post
23:38
petroleum future. And
23:40
>> and it feels like that's dead. Well,
23:44
that that feels exaggerated.
23:47
>> All right. Well, would you would you
23:48
invest money would you invest money in
23:50
the Persian Gulf right now?
23:51
>> Depends on the thing. Depends on the
23:52
thing, but it's not it's not dead. I
23:54
mean, first of all, the the the there
23:56
are some things that I would invest it.
23:58
So, for example, I I believe that the
24:01
Saudi uh kingdom um is now I mean, I was
24:06
just there a few months ago. It is
24:08
astonishing to see how they are bringing
24:09
women into the economy. 50% of the
24:11
economy they couldn't even be bothered
24:13
with 10 years ago, right? And I mean now
24:15
they are and they were getting educated.
24:17
They just weren't in the workforce. Now
24:18
they're in the workforce
24:19
>> and and you know this is a real economy.
24:22
It's over 30 million people. Um and and
24:24
that that is something they're not going
24:26
anywhere. They're staying in Saudi
24:27
Arabia. Um that is something to bet on.
24:30
The fact that they are actually
24:32
investing in health care, they are
24:35
investing um in you know sort of
24:37
education. and they're investing and
24:39
they're trying to create
24:39
entrepreneurship in technology. These
24:42
are local things that matter. Um, and
24:44
also they still have immense energy
24:46
wealth and once energy can come out
24:48
again and that that 7 million a barrel
24:51
pipeline uh a day matters a lot more um
24:55
for the Saudis, the cutteries, the
24:56
Kuwaitis are getting hit very hard. So
24:58
Saudi in this environment feels better
25:00
for me. Dubai. I think that there's a
25:03
lot of the investment in Dubai that
25:05
they've done which looks I mean they've
25:07
got the highest AI diffusion rate in the
25:09
world in the UAE right now. Singapore is
25:12
number two. I would bet a lot on that. I
25:14
bet a lot on you know uh the uh the
25:16
ability of the Emiratis um to act as a
25:20
technology hub for countries they have
25:22
much better relations with than the
25:24
United States does and cooperate and
25:26
partner with the Americans. But um as a
25:29
place that is safe to go for you know a
25:32
jaunt you know for whether it's F1 or
25:35
whether you want to like you know sort
25:36
of have a great you're a Brit you want
25:38
to have a great like warm beach house or
25:40
whatever it is like that that is real
25:43
trouble. Desalination
25:45
is is real trouble. I mean these many of
25:47
these countries are relying for 90% of
25:50
their water on these plants that are
25:52
actually very vulnerable. They're going
25:54
to have to spend a lot of money in
25:56
making sure they have alternative water
25:58
plans. Uh they need redundancy there.
26:01
They're going to need to spend. That's a
26:02
really hard thing to do. It's going to
26:04
take time. They're not going to be able
26:05
to invest in all of these big, you know,
26:07
high feature things like the line that
26:10
you saw from the Saudis. The rest that's
26:12
going to be a lot harder. So I I think
26:14
that um at the end of the day, the em
26:17
the the Gulf States are facing very
26:19
significant troubles, but it's not it's
26:20
not everything. It's part of the story.
26:23
So, let's look ahead to the the day
26:25
after this war ends, which hopefully
26:27
will be soon. What the world looks like,
26:29
it it feels to me like it like something
26:32
big is happening because of this war
26:35
already in place maybe, but accelerated
26:37
and maybe this marks a break with US
26:41
allies and maybe even with the the role
26:44
of of China in the world. There's talk
26:46
about the the Chinese currency replacing
26:49
the dollar in trading some of the oil
26:50
that's stuck in the Persian Gulf. So,
26:52
how do you read the impact, long-term
26:54
impact on on the US place in the world
26:57
and what the world looks like?
26:59
>> I mean, it's obviously an important data
27:01
point. Uh, Terry, I I don't know that I
27:04
would consider the world has changed
27:06
because of what the US is doing in Iran,
27:08
per se. I think it's one of a number of
27:11
things. US trade policy, uh,
27:14
post-liberation day, um, US demands of
27:18
capitulation from the Ukrainians, not as
27:21
much pressure on Russia pulling out
27:23
their direct support for Ukraine that
27:25
they'd been providing to such a great
27:27
degree. Uh, the Greenland kurfuffle,
27:30
right? I mean, whether or not uh,
27:32
foreign tourists are welcome in the
27:34
United States and are their phones going
27:36
to be checked for their social media? um
27:38
you know, how do we think about, you
27:40
know, the future of major American
27:42
universities and uh whether or not there
27:44
continue to be attractive places for
27:46
foreigners to go? All of those things
27:48
are questions that that make the
27:51
Americans and the United States seem
27:53
more unpredictable, less reliable for
27:56
allies. And I think Iran is a very big
27:58
piece of that. And it's no surprise that
28:01
none of the allies are are coming on
28:03
board to support Trump when he says we
28:06
want you to participate because you know
28:08
they weren't asked in advance for their
28:10
opinion. They weren't even given a heads
28:11
up that the US was going to make this
28:13
decision. So again all of this is it
28:15
fits in the pattern right? I mean it's
28:17
an additional data point. What I think
28:19
is not happening is that American
28:22
adversaries are not suddenly taking
28:24
advantage of this environment. What I
28:26
mean by that is while it is true uh that
28:31
China benefits from all of this lack of
28:35
belief and trust in the United States,
28:37
the likelihood that the Chinese would
28:39
suddenly invade Taiwan is near zero
28:43
because the reality is it's a massive
28:45
military risk for China for an untested
28:48
Chinese military and an untested Chinese
28:51
military leadership that's been purged a
28:54
lot recently. That reality is very
28:57
different than how you feel about the
28:59
United States. The reality is the US
29:01
market is still bigger. The economy is
29:03
still bigger than China's. And you can
29:06
you can do more uh trading in R&B, but
29:09
it's not actually uh a convertible
29:12
currency. You don't have rule of law.
29:14
You don't have an independent judiciary.
29:15
They stop capital flight from China. So
29:18
you don't suddenly say, "Oh, I'm gonna
29:20
make the Chinese currency my reserve
29:23
currency, even though I don't like the
29:24
Americans so much right now." So I I
29:27
wouldn't I wouldn't go too far down that
29:30
path. What I what I would say is we
29:32
don't yet know how big and longlasting
29:36
the consequences of this war are going
29:38
to be. And I mean there are tail risk
29:41
scenarios where the world is in a major
29:44
recession as a consequence of American
29:47
decisions. If that were to happen, if we
29:49
end up with oil, god forbid, at 150 or
29:53
200 and real demand destruction on the
29:56
back of that and countries really taking
29:59
it in the teeth, then I think you would
30:02
see an acceleration
30:04
of the hedging away from America that
30:07
long-term is going to matter a lot.
30:10
>> And it it does get that that's very
30:12
clear and it still worrisome though. And
30:15
it gets to this concept that that you've
30:17
developed that I'm curious about because
30:19
it is future oriented, the G0ero, right,
30:22
which is very clever having been to
30:24
plenty of G8s, G9s, G whatevers over the
30:28
years with various American presidents.
30:30
Uh the notion that there isn't a
30:34
hedgeimon or there there isn't a country
30:37
around which the world's major decisions
30:41
must circle.
30:43
what does the world look like? Uh Trump
30:45
is really the the break then, not
30:48
necessarily the war. Uh and so what what
30:51
does that mean for us and and for the
30:53
world? So there are three reasons why
30:56
the G0ero came about, an absence of
30:59
global leadership, right? Uh the first
31:01
is that back when the Soviet Union
31:04
collapsed, Russia was not integrated
31:06
into the West. And they're very angry
31:07
about it. So they're super adversarial.
31:09
They're invading Ukraine. They're
31:12
closest friends with like the North
31:13
Koreans and the Chinese. None of that is
31:15
good, right? They're helping the
31:16
Iranians. That's one reason. A second
31:19
reason, more important than that, is
31:21
that the Chinese were brought into the
31:24
global economy on the presumption that
31:26
as they got wealthier, they would become
31:28
more American. They would become more
31:30
open politically. They would become more
31:32
open economically. They have gotten much
31:34
more powerful. They've gotten much
31:36
stronger, much wealthier. they are not
31:38
actually reforming their political and
31:41
economic system to look like the west
31:43
and and the United States and the
31:45
Europeans and others are deeply
31:47
discomforted by that. That causes a lot
31:49
of conflict. But then the most important
31:51
reason we have a G0ero is that
31:54
increasingly Americans, everyday
31:57
Americans don't believe
32:00
>> in the things that their leaders have
32:02
been telling them for decades we should
32:04
promote like being the global sheriff,
32:07
like promoting free trade, like having
32:09
comparatively open borders. All of those
32:12
things, those are structural things that
32:15
Obama had to deal with, Biden had to
32:17
deal with, Trump had to deal with. We
32:19
kept seeing those things happen. No
32:21
matter who you elect president in 2029,
32:23
the American people will still be
32:25
feeling that way. The difference is that
32:28
Trump has become a very serious
32:31
accelerant of that. And also in addition
32:34
to all those structural changes, there
32:37
have been a number of occasions where he
32:39
promotes policies in his own personal
32:41
interest for his own ego, for his own
32:44
brand, for his own pocketbook as opposed
32:47
to the interest of the country. Now
32:49
that's new. and and those are things
32:52
that when they happen they they deeply
32:56
antagonize allies because there is just
33:00
there's no set of common interest there.
33:03
Um and and they also make the
33:06
adversaries of the United States feel
33:08
like this is something we can really
33:09
take advantage of. So that that's what
33:11
we need to see go away is is is having a
33:14
leader, a a commanderin-chief
33:18
who is occasionally making decisions for
33:21
the country that are actually not in the
33:23
country's interests. They're in his
33:24
personal interest. And and when we when
33:26
we see those things happen, that that
33:28
that's the no moment.
33:32
>> A different America, a different world,
33:35
and one that is worrisome, as I say, in
33:38
Bremer, thank you very much. It's been
33:40
fascinating.
33:40
>> Enjoy talking to you, T.