Latest / Balance of Power / Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Is Over
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
- 0:10Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
- 0:13Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
- 0:17Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
- 0:20Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
- 0:25Speaker 2: Thank you for being with us on the Friday edition
- 0:27Speaker 2: of Balance of Power Here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
- 0:29Speaker 2: Kaylee Lions has the day off. We begin with the
- 0:32Speaker 2: situation with Iran and a lot of confusion about exactly
- 0:35Speaker 2: what is happening right now, with the President issuing a
- 0:39Speaker 2: mixed message in a single post on truth social writing,
- 0:42Speaker 2: the Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue talks.
- 0:46Speaker 3: We have agreed to do so.
- 0:49Speaker 2: That part taken in isolation, has given the market a
- 0:51Speaker 2: bit of a boost today. And as Charlie was just saying,
- 0:54Speaker 2: it's not only stocks up. Interest rates are largely flat,
- 0:58Speaker 2: and oil prices are lower WTI and Brent down about
- 1:02Speaker 2: one percent each year. As the President goes on to write,
- 1:05Speaker 2: but the United States has stated to them in no
- 1:08Speaker 2: uncertain terms, the cease fire is over talks, continuing cease
- 1:14Speaker 2: fire over similar language to what we heard from the
- 1:18Speaker 2: President at the NATO summit this week in Ancre listen
- 1:22Speaker 2: to me.
- 1:23Speaker 3: I think it's over.
- 1:25Speaker 4: I don't want to deal with them, in with this scum,
- 1:27Speaker 4: so as I'm concerned, it's over.
- 1:28Speaker 5: We just said it very hard.
- 1:30Speaker 4: It did a little something today, but it was really
- 1:33Speaker 4: retribution for last night.
- 1:34Speaker 3: I'm not sure I want to make a deal with them.
- 1:36Speaker 5: We can play games, but.
- 1:38Speaker 3: I'm not sure I want to make a deal.
- 1:39Speaker 4: Let's just finish the job.
- 1:42Speaker 2: We turned to a voice of experience at this time
- 1:45Speaker 2: with a lot of questions as we head into another
- 1:47Speaker 2: weekend about what might happen in the next twenty four
- 1:50Speaker 2: to forty eight hours, although the market seems to be
- 1:53Speaker 2: pretty calm at the moment with the bet that this
- 1:56Speaker 2: president is not looking to re enter all out war.
- 2:00Speaker 2: Ambassador James Jeffrey joins US now Live Distinguished Fellow at
- 2:03Speaker 2: the Washington Institute for Nieri's Policy, who is former US
- 2:06Speaker 2: Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, former Ambassador to Albania, and
- 2:11Speaker 2: former Deputy National Security Advisor. He was Special Envoy for
- 2:14Speaker 2: the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic State ISIS, and
- 2:18Speaker 2: is with US NOW on balance of power. Ambassador, It's
- 2:21Speaker 2: great to see you and welcome back. How do we
- 2:23Speaker 2: describe this moment before we explore how to get out
- 2:26Speaker 2: of it? This rolling back and forth of kinetic activity
- 2:31Speaker 2: preference for talks?
- 2:32Speaker 3: How long can we sustain this split screen?
- 2:37Speaker 6: Welcome to my world. Of many decades of diplomacy in
- 2:43Speaker 6: conflict situations, this is not abnormal. It also isn't good.
- 2:49Speaker 6: Very quickly, the president in Iran back in June agreed
- 2:53Speaker 6: to end the latest range of fighting from February on
- 2:58Speaker 6: with a ceespire and the Iranians would get to ship
- 3:02Speaker 6: their oil out and sell it market prices on the
- 3:08Speaker 6: world market, and in return, the United States would have
- 3:13Speaker 6: all other ships out of the Straits and we would
- 3:16Speaker 6: negotiate a new nuclear deal. It wasn't a bad arrangement
- 3:20Speaker 6: for Iran. Instead, the Iranians decided that they would stop
- 3:24Speaker 6: fooling with it, lawyering as we say, the text of
- 3:28Speaker 6: a somewhat ambiguous agreement, but many agreements are ambiguous to
- 3:32Speaker 6: say they'll really control the Straits from day one. That
- 3:36Speaker 6: led to them firing at ships, breaking the cease file,
- 3:39Speaker 6: and American retaliation. Right now, the MoU may technically be
- 3:45Speaker 6: in effect and not in effect. The point is we
- 3:47Speaker 6: are talking with the Iranians and the United States is
- 3:51Speaker 6: not launching any new attacks, waiting to see what Iran
- 3:55Speaker 6: does for the moment. If Iran doesn't fire any new
- 3:59Speaker 6: missile at targets across the straits at our ships, the
- 4:04Speaker 6: United States probably will not retaliate. But if Iran keeps
- 4:07Speaker 6: the straits closed one way or the other, we will
- 4:10Speaker 6: reinstitute the blockade, and we will take further economic and
- 4:14Speaker 6: potentially military measures to return Irian to the memorandum agreement
- 4:18Speaker 6: we signed in June. I think that's the way we're going.
- 4:21Speaker 3: Okay, Ambassador to speak to the significance.
- 4:24Speaker 2: Realizing that we haven't hit anything today of in the
- 4:27Speaker 2: last twenty four hours, the US choosing to hit two
- 4:31Speaker 2: bridges in eastern provinces along the railway line to the
- 4:34Speaker 2: city of Mashad, Iran's foreign ministry called this a flagrant
- 4:38Speaker 2: violation of articles one in five of the MoU What
- 4:42Speaker 2: were we trying to accomplish by taking down those bridges?
- 4:47Speaker 6: First of all, to get the Iranian hipocritical foreign minister
- 4:51Speaker 6: to rant and rave about what we're doing is violation
- 4:54Speaker 6: of this and that when these are the guys who
- 4:56Speaker 6: violated the animo U in the first place. We launched
- 4:59Speaker 6: one hundred seventy strikes over two days. That's back up
- 5:03Speaker 6: too close to what we were doing a few months ago.
- 5:05Speaker 6: And importantly, as you noted, we hit these railway connections
- 5:09Speaker 6: that Iran is using to get its oil out.
- 5:12Speaker 5: To China by land.
- 5:14Speaker 6: If we put a new blockade on cutting their sea exit,
- 5:19Speaker 6: and we also blow up the railways cutting their land
- 5:22Speaker 6: exit and also limit their ability to move their forces
- 5:26Speaker 6: around Iran, they're facing a very dire situation. I was
- 5:29Speaker 6: in Iraq in two thousand and four when all the
- 5:31Speaker 6: rail lines were cut.
- 5:32Speaker 5: It wasn't happy.
- 5:34Speaker 3: Wow, Well that's fascinating, ambassador.
- 5:37Speaker 2: Should that be the ongoing strategy if we're in fact
- 5:40Speaker 2: going to cripple Iran as much focus as we have
- 5:43Speaker 2: on the straight, eliminating any other avenue for Iran to
- 5:46Speaker 2: get oil to China.
- 5:48Speaker 6: Sure it's not just the oil, as I said, the bridges,
- 5:51Speaker 6: the railways, and eventually I would suspect he'll also go
- 5:54Speaker 6: after the electrical systems, or at least the high tension lines,
- 5:58Speaker 6: because if you get a new season, they can easily
- 6:00Speaker 6: be replaced that again cripples the Iranian economy, It cripples
- 6:06Speaker 6: the Iranian ability to wage war, including to close the straits,
- 6:10Speaker 6: and it will provoke one or another very dramatic reaction
- 6:14Speaker 6: sooner or later among the population. Iran knows this, so
- 6:17Speaker 6: this will be encouraging them to come back to the table,
- 6:20Speaker 6: which is why again the Foreign Minister is bitching so
- 6:23Speaker 6: loudly about all the bad things we're doing, because they
- 6:26Speaker 6: realize they're having an impact.
- 6:28Speaker 2: Well, that's pretty fascinating when you talk about the fact
- 6:33Speaker 2: that we are at least talking. These are not formal
- 6:36Speaker 2: talks at a table. We're hearing about back channels and
- 6:39Speaker 2: indirect talks. As a career diplomat ambassador, how does that
- 6:44Speaker 2: work before the phone call gets back to the White
- 6:47Speaker 2: House with news, It works badly.
- 6:51Speaker 6: The best is face to face. We had one round
- 6:53Speaker 6: with the Iranians with Vice President J. D. Vance, but
- 6:56Speaker 6: since then, including the details FA this June a memorandum
- 6:59Speaker 6: of understanding, we're done through intermediaries. There are all kinds
- 7:03Speaker 6: of problems with them. It's just that it's better than
- 7:06Speaker 6: not talking. And right now we can't meet face to face.
- 7:09Speaker 6: We'll go through the cutteries We'll go through the Pakistanis,
- 7:12Speaker 6: the Turks and others, and they'll do a good enough job.
- 7:15Speaker 5: I believe what.
- 7:17Speaker 2: You make of the swap. I know we only have
- 7:18Speaker 2: a minute left, Ambassador. The swap on Air Force One.
- 7:22Speaker 2: This week, there's been some reporting, more specifically from The
- 7:24Speaker 2: New York Times, to suggest that the new gifted Air
- 7:27Speaker 2: Force One from Cutter was not outfitted with aerial defense
- 7:31Speaker 2: systems that would prevent a heat seeking missile potentially from
- 7:35Speaker 2: downing the jet. He took the old Air Force one
- 7:38Speaker 2: home after being threatened by Iran. Should that plane the
- 7:43Speaker 2: new Air Force one be used at all?
- 7:47Speaker 7: No.
- 7:48Speaker 6: I was in the old Air Force one with President Borshwyn,
- 7:51Speaker 6: a certain rogue East Asian state I won't name, which
- 7:57Speaker 6: took some threatening actions launching, and under those circumstances, it's
- 8:03Speaker 6: a life I desk situation involving the president. We cannot
- 8:06Speaker 6: take any risk with an American president being shot down
- 8:10Speaker 6: or destroyed in a combat arena terrorist operation. That things
- 8:14Speaker 6: should be sent to some graveyard.
- 8:17Speaker 5: Wow.
- 8:18Speaker 2: I had a feeling you might have a good answer
- 8:21Speaker 2: for that, James Jeffrey. It's great to see you, sir.
- 8:23Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us. Mister Ambassador and have a
- 8:25Speaker 2: great weekend. Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, Former Special
- 8:29Speaker 2: Envoy the Global Coalition to defeat isis. I'm Joe Matthew
- 8:33Speaker 2: in Washington, as we balance a couple of lead stories
- 8:36Speaker 2: here today on Bloomberg, we turned from geopolitics to Wall
- 8:40Speaker 2: Street and the enormous demand for memory that is culminated
- 8:45Speaker 2: in a new listing in New York today, and Bloomberg's
- 8:48Speaker 2: Ed Ludlow joins us from world headquarters with his eyes
- 8:51Speaker 2: on sk heinez So far as successful debut of ADRs
- 8:55Speaker 2: trading on the Nasdaq, up over sixteen percent from the
- 8:59Speaker 2: sale price. It is with us right now live having
- 9:02Speaker 2: just returned from the Nasdaq market site.
- 9:04Speaker 3: So far so good, Ed, so far so good.
- 9:06Speaker 8: You know, the ticker for now sk hy v the
- 9:10Speaker 8: ve gos on the fourteenth when the full trading starts.
- 9:13Speaker 8: But the other way looking at it is sky high
- 9:17Speaker 8: sk hy sky high, and that that kind of represents
- 9:21Speaker 8: the state of the memory market right now. D RAM
- 9:24Speaker 8: prices are sky high, nan flash memory sky high, and
- 9:29Speaker 8: sk Heinex dominates high bandwidth memory hBN market fifty seven percent.
- 9:35Speaker 8: And you know, in any given financial transaction Joe that
- 9:39Speaker 8: there are numbers, right, but I think for the balance
- 9:42Speaker 8: of power listeners and for the American audience, you know,
- 9:45Speaker 8: SK really believe that America understands what's going on in
- 9:49Speaker 8: AI from the memory perspective, and so from their point
- 9:52Speaker 8: of view, it was not just about the money. It
- 9:54Speaker 8: was about getting in front of Americans and trying to
- 9:57Speaker 8: get their thinking about SK.
- 10:00Speaker 2: Well, and we're told this was seven times over subscribe.
- 10:03Speaker 2: So I guess the road show, to whatever extent there
- 10:06Speaker 2: was one worked. We talk a lot about Micron. They're
- 10:09Speaker 2: in the same business, and help our audience understand what
- 10:13Speaker 2: makes them similar and what makes them different. It has
- 10:16Speaker 2: been to the moon for Micron shares. They're actually down
- 10:18Speaker 2: about six dollars and a half percent right now and
- 10:22Speaker 2: have come down meaningfully from their highs.
- 10:24Speaker 3: Do they make the same stuff.
- 10:25Speaker 8: Yes, they make the same stuff, but there's an interesting distinction.
- 10:29Speaker 8: So a big story this week was Micron boosting its
- 10:32Speaker 8: investment in America to two hundred and fifty billion two
- 10:36Speaker 8: five zero billion from two hundred billion, but to boost
- 10:40Speaker 8: capacity of memory chips. They operate in the same market.
- 10:44Speaker 8: Skhidex has fifty seven cent market share in high bandwidth memory.
- 10:48Speaker 8: Those are the memory chips that correspond to a GPU
- 10:51Speaker 8: and an AI data center, and Micron and Samsung make
- 10:54Speaker 8: up the remainder of that market. But what you need
- 10:56Speaker 8: to know about Micron is that right now it's American
- 11:00Speaker 8: output of memory broadly is a few single digit percent
- 11:03Speaker 8: of its total output. All of what it's doing is
- 11:06Speaker 8: in Asia. So that's really interesting because like the main
- 11:11Speaker 8: news headline out of my interview with the SK chairman
- 11:14Speaker 8: was theyre.
- 11:14Speaker 3: Going to come big to America.
- 11:16Speaker 8: They're going to invest big, and we can get to that,
- 11:17Speaker 8: I guess in a second, but I would just sort
- 11:19Speaker 8: of set the playing field, like Micron is is really
- 11:22Speaker 8: in the in the news cycle right now. It's a
- 11:23Speaker 8: big American company, but their footprints really outside of America,
- 11:27Speaker 8: and that's the bit they're trying to address.
- 11:30Speaker 2: Let's hear from the SKA chairman, who you spoke with
- 11:33Speaker 2: right before trading began earlier.
- 11:36Speaker 3: He around Bloomberg.
- 11:37Speaker 9: Listen, I have some confident then the demand that will
- 11:40Speaker 9: be growth, and I was apply compesstity, never want to
- 11:43Speaker 9: catch up. That's going to be until that people, our
- 11:47Speaker 9: society humans well said they had set there was some
- 11:49Speaker 9: setlementy with the AGI then well, I guess that the
- 11:54Speaker 9: world that's a kind of normalized that all the the cycles.
- 11:58Speaker 9: But anyhow, that until then, while we need that a
- 12:03Speaker 9: lot of.
- 12:03Speaker 2: Memories, begging the question when will it catch up ed
- 12:09Speaker 2: or will it This is a company, as you've reported today,
- 12:13Speaker 2: that has big investment plans for the US.
- 12:15Speaker 3: Yeah.
- 12:15Speaker 8: I think what's so interesting is everyone has a slightly
- 12:19Speaker 8: different view of how long there's going to be a
- 12:22Speaker 8: shortage of memory chips. And in this context we're specifically
- 12:25Speaker 8: talking about d RAM. A high bandwidth memory chip is
- 12:29Speaker 8: layers of d RAM micro layers twelve in the case
- 12:32Speaker 8: of the one I held up to you earlier in
- 12:34Speaker 8: the earlier edition, a balance of power. And you know,
- 12:38Speaker 8: the high bandwidth memory market is about just under I
- 12:42Speaker 8: don't know, forty percent, let's say, of everything that's being
- 12:44Speaker 8: done in DRAM right now. But from a dollar perspective,
- 12:47Speaker 8: because pricing is so high, it accounts for it. What
- 12:49Speaker 8: the chairman was saying there is very academic. You know,
- 12:52Speaker 8: bear with me, Joe, it's hard to pass this stuff.
- 12:55Speaker 8: He is saying he thinks that the shortage will end
- 12:58Speaker 8: when the human kind reaches artificial general intelligence, which is
- 13:04Speaker 8: the holy grail of AI. For those that aren't aware,
- 13:07Speaker 8: you can't put that on your calendar. That's going to
- 13:09Speaker 8: be exactly. I'm not getting my flip calendar and going okay.
- 13:11Speaker 8: I wanted him to say twenty thirty or twenty thirty two,
- 13:14Speaker 8: and it didn't go like that. I think that because
- 13:17Speaker 8: you know, let's be honest, English is not Chairman Cha's
- 13:20Speaker 8: first language. He has a PhD in economics from Chicago
- 13:23Speaker 8: by the way, University of Chicago. Lived a long time
- 13:25Speaker 8: in Chicago and in New York City. But if you
- 13:28Speaker 8: listen very currefully, he said, the supply is never going
- 13:32Speaker 8: to catch up with the demand. It's about bridging the gap.
- 13:35Speaker 8: And that's why we're pulling this all together. Why are
- 13:37Speaker 8: they raising money through the usadrs. Why is he talking
- 13:41Speaker 8: up his commitment to invest in America. They are massively
- 13:44Speaker 8: committed to ramping up their capacity in career here in
- 13:47Speaker 8: the United States and to continually tap capital markets to
- 13:51Speaker 8: do it.
- 13:53Speaker 3: So this is no longer a cyclical industry.
- 13:55Speaker 2: The big run ups, the boom and bust cycles we've
- 13:57Speaker 2: seen in the past, yes, well not occur again.
- 14:00Speaker 8: So in twenty twelve, when sk bought Heinex. A lot
- 14:05Speaker 8: of people thought that was crazy. The memory industry was
- 14:09Speaker 8: underpinned by a lot of debt, and it was boom
- 14:11Speaker 8: and bust because basically memory chips went into consumer electronics.
- 14:14Speaker 8: You know, it followed the cycle of the global economy.
- 14:16Speaker 8: If people, you know, stopped buying consumer electronics and they'd
- 14:20Speaker 8: built up a lot of memory chips, you just stop
- 14:22Speaker 8: buying the memory chips, you stop buying consumer electronics. Now
- 14:24Speaker 8: it's more linear, you know, it's just linear being there's
- 14:29Speaker 8: a longer field of view for how long the demand
- 14:31Speaker 8: vastly outpaces the supply of memory. But it's being driven
- 14:35Speaker 8: by something completely different, which is again I'm sorry to
- 14:37Speaker 8: go back to basics. A high bandwidth memory chip that
- 14:39Speaker 8: goes into a data center is just layers of d RAM.
- 14:42Speaker 8: So there's a competition between the data center market and
- 14:45Speaker 8: the consumer electronics market for where that d ram's getting funneled.
- 14:50Speaker 8: And that's a new dynamic that didn't exist in twenty twelve.
- 14:55Speaker 2: Incredible, Can I ask you, just because we don't get
- 14:57Speaker 2: to spend that much time together on the air at Ludlow,
- 14:59Speaker 2: We've I've got earnings reporting seasons starting next week.
- 15:02Speaker 3: What are you excited about? What are you worried about?
- 15:04Speaker 3: As we get up to the tech earning cycle.
- 15:06Speaker 8: Yeah, earnings expectations are incredibly high for the mag seven,
- 15:10Speaker 8: the biggest technology companies in America in there for the world.
- 15:14Speaker 8: Capital expenditures from the big cloud computing companies that's Amazon, Microsoft,
- 15:20Speaker 8: Google will be a big, big focus, but probably at
- 15:24Speaker 8: this stage a greater emphasis on evidence proof that out
- 15:28Speaker 8: the other side, companies big and small have worked out
- 15:31Speaker 8: something useful to do with AI and are generating their
- 15:34Speaker 8: own revenues. I think there's going to be a lot
- 15:36Speaker 8: more focus on that going forward. You know, yes, all
- 15:39Speaker 8: these chip companies are going to grow massively top and
- 15:41Speaker 8: bottom line. The cloud computing companies will say the demands there,
- 15:45Speaker 8: but that everyone's looking for that extra third bucket, which
- 15:47Speaker 8: is like, well, hold on, what about all these companies
- 15:49Speaker 8: that you say are your customers? How are they doing?
- 15:51Speaker 3: Yeah?
- 15:52Speaker 2: Wow, Well it's going to be fascinating and we'd love
- 15:54Speaker 2: your help to get through it. Of course you can
- 15:56Speaker 2: find and to that end as the host of Bloomberg
- 15:59Speaker 2: Tech every day here on Bloomberg and I appreciate it, ed.
- 16:02Speaker 2: We'll be watching, of course, sk heinez, it's up about
- 16:05Speaker 2: sixteen percent at the moment. We'll have the latest with
- 16:09Speaker 2: our political panel next. President Trump says he will not
- 16:12Speaker 2: sign the bill. Stay with us on Balance of Power.
- 16:14Speaker 2: We'll have much more coming up after this.
- 16:19Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
- 16:23Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on
- 16:26Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
- 16:29Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
- 16:32Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty.
- 16:38Speaker 2: As we inch our way towards four pm, and of
- 16:41Speaker 2: course this program followed by Bloomberg BusinessWeek Daily. We'll keep
- 16:45Speaker 2: tabs on the sk trade straight through the afternoon. Thanks
- 16:48Speaker 2: for joining us here on the Friday edition of Balance
- 16:51Speaker 2: of Power. Kaylee's off today and the President has made
- 16:55Speaker 2: it very clear he's not signing the bill. We've not
- 16:58Speaker 2: actually heard from him on this book on truth social
- 17:01Speaker 2: This is the BIPARTI is a housing bill that's been
- 17:04Speaker 2: knocking around the White House for the better part of
- 17:06Speaker 2: a week. Even more than that, he's got ten days
- 17:09Speaker 2: to sign it, and the President has decided that he
- 17:11Speaker 2: doesn't want you as we go back to last month,
- 17:13Speaker 2: remembering there was a signing ceremony that was to take
- 17:16Speaker 2: place on Capitol Hill in Statuary Hall. The chairs were set,
- 17:21Speaker 2: the table with the Presidential seal, the sharpies were there,
- 17:24Speaker 2: cameras lights were lit when he announced on truth Social
- 17:30Speaker 2: that he was not going to the signing ceremony because
- 17:34Speaker 2: he was not able to get enough support for the
- 17:36Speaker 2: Save America Act within his own conference. And today the
- 17:40Speaker 2: President continues to seemingly punish his own party. Going back
- 17:44Speaker 2: to truth Social to write, quote, I will not sign
- 17:47Speaker 2: the housing bill, which has been fully approved by Congress
- 17:50Speaker 2: and sent to the White House. In protest, he says,
- 17:52Speaker 2: there it is on your screen over the fact that
- 17:55Speaker 2: the US Senate is not capable of passing the Save
- 17:58Speaker 2: America Act, which he says is pulling at ninety seven
- 18:01Speaker 2: percent with the Republican Party and very high with the
- 18:05Speaker 2: non politician Democrats.
- 18:08Speaker 3: As he refers to the other party.
- 18:11Speaker 2: President's been pretty clear about this, and listen, this was
- 18:14Speaker 2: an achievement that both Republicans and Democrats were hoping to
- 18:18Speaker 2: carry with them on the midterm trail. Many will continue
- 18:21Speaker 2: to do so, just without the love and support of
- 18:25Speaker 2: President Trump. Who doesn't seem to think that this bill
- 18:28Speaker 2: does much anyway. This is what he said about at
- 18:30Speaker 2: the end of last month, June twenty ninth.
- 18:32Speaker 4: Here's what I would like to say, much more than
- 18:35Speaker 4: a bill that a big deal fits a yawn some
- 18:39Speaker 4: it was as wonderful to me compared to the Save
- 18:43Speaker 4: America Act.
- 18:45Speaker 3: Just about everything is a big yawn, A yawn, he said,
- 18:50Speaker 3: a big yawn.
- 18:51Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent, is at the White House
- 18:54Speaker 2: right now, where there will not be a signing ceremony.
- 18:57Speaker 2: But the law tells us. The way this works, Tyler,
- 19:00Speaker 2: is it will be on the books after midnight. If
- 19:03Speaker 2: the President chooses not to veto the bill, and he's
- 19:06Speaker 2: not going to do that, right right, Joe.
- 19:09Speaker 7: It's expected to become a law Saturday at midnight. There's
- 19:13Speaker 7: a few different important pieces of context that we can
- 19:16Speaker 7: provide here. One in regard to what you've just heard
- 19:18Speaker 7: from President Trump. Industry experts do tell us here at
- 19:21Speaker 7: Bloomberg News that the bill is actually expected to have
- 19:23Speaker 7: a limited immediate impact because it takes so much time
- 19:26Speaker 7: to build up housing supply, and it also doesn't include
- 19:29Speaker 7: any new federal funding, so there's no appropriations backing this
- 19:34Speaker 7: bill that could make a tangible difference immediately, but it
- 19:37Speaker 7: does have forty seven different provisions. This is considered to
- 19:41Speaker 7: be the most bided, bipartisan and widest ranging housing bill
- 19:45Speaker 7: in really decades for the US Congress, and it includes
- 19:48Speaker 7: things like encouraging localities to streamline some of the rules
- 19:53Speaker 7: making other rules around factory built housing, and then also
- 19:57Speaker 7: importantly includes that provision related to institutional and investers with
- 20:01Speaker 7: more than three hundred and fifty homes from purchasing additional
- 20:04Speaker 7: single family properties. That band was really critical to getting
- 20:09Speaker 7: this White House's support. So there are provisions in here
- 20:12Speaker 7: that we know both sides of the aisle would like
- 20:14Speaker 7: to talt moving forward. You mentioned it passed on a
- 20:16Speaker 7: bipartisan basis, just to put some context there, we're talking
- 20:19Speaker 7: very bipartisan. In the Senate it was eighty five to five,
- 20:22Speaker 7: and then the House it was five hundred and thirty
- 20:24Speaker 7: eight to thirty two. The thing is President Trump, as
- 20:28Speaker 7: you've heard, says that this is essentially a protest vote
- 20:30Speaker 7: when it comes to the Save America Act, that voter
- 20:33Speaker 7: ID requirement law. But Joe, the thing is Senate Republicans
- 20:37Speaker 7: have repeatedly told this White House the math just isn't
- 20:40Speaker 7: there to pass it as it stands. The math also
- 20:43Speaker 7: isn't there to change the procedure. You'll often hear President
- 20:45Speaker 7: Trump talking about the filibuster, trying to get around that
- 20:48Speaker 7: sixty vote threshold, but at this point, there doesn't really
- 20:52Speaker 7: seem to be a tangible path, at least before November,
- 20:54Speaker 7: for the Senate to get this done.
- 20:57Speaker 2: Yeah, he's calling for two things, Tyler in this very
- 20:59Speaker 2: same post, as he said, if the Democrats, or as
- 21:02Speaker 2: he writes, Democrats are not working with Republicans, do not
- 21:05Speaker 2: allow a positive vote on Save America, then terminate the filibuster,
- 21:09Speaker 2: he writes in all caps, and pass this and every
- 21:12Speaker 2: other bill that true Republicans have ever dreamt of. So
- 21:17Speaker 2: he wants the Save America Act to be passed. John
- 21:21Speaker 2: Thune has made clear they don't have the votes to
- 21:23Speaker 2: do that, so as a result, he says, kill the filibuster.
- 21:27Speaker 3: John Thune's not prepared to do that either, right, Joe.
- 21:30Speaker 7: As you well know, this is something that Senate leadership,
- 21:33Speaker 7: including the Senate Majority leader John Thune, has repeatedly said,
- 21:37Speaker 7: is not something that he's going to be on the
- 21:38Speaker 7: table because it's going to need some broader support to
- 21:43Speaker 7: get through the finish line, and many Republicans have pointed
- 21:46Speaker 7: out the fact that if they do this now, then
- 21:47Speaker 7: that could hurt their hand if they lose control of
- 21:50Speaker 7: the chamber, whether that's this November or down the line,
- 21:53Speaker 7: it sets that precedent for other governing parties. The Senate
- 21:57Speaker 7: is a very proceduraln body, and they like to have
- 22:02Speaker 7: those rules that have really been in place, and that
- 22:04Speaker 7: I think factors really largely into what has been this
- 22:07Speaker 7: pushback to the President when it comes to this bill. Now,
- 22:10Speaker 7: we've previously spoken about in weeks prior maybe some provisions
- 22:13Speaker 7: of it could be wrapped up into another reconciliation package,
- 22:16Speaker 7: but at this point in time we haven't really seen
- 22:18Speaker 7: movement around that because that opens the door to budgetary
- 22:21Speaker 7: concerns from even some conservatives on the House side, and
- 22:25Speaker 7: the process just gets really complicated. So we'll be interesting
- 22:28Speaker 7: to watch what else could potentially be stalled or not
- 22:30Speaker 7: have the president's sign of approval if the Save America
- 22:33Speaker 7: Act doesn't actually advance in a more meaningful way without
- 22:36Speaker 7: that path clearly laid out at this point, all right.
- 22:39Speaker 3: Tyler, thanks for being out there for us.
- 22:41Speaker 2: Tyler Kendall on the North Lawn on this Friday, as
- 22:43Speaker 2: we assemble our political panel for their take on this
- 22:46Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano join now.
- 22:50Speaker 2: Rick is our Republican strategistic partner at Stone Court Capital.
- 22:53Speaker 2: Genie is our Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at
- 22:56Speaker 2: Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. How do we chalk this up, Rick,
- 23:01Speaker 2: if anything other than the President simply punishing his own
- 23:05Speaker 2: party over a personal preference here, And I have to
- 23:08Speaker 2: admit I'm almost surprised in retrospect that he canceled that
- 23:11Speaker 2: signing ceremony. Doesn't the president love taking credit for stuff?
- 23:14Speaker 2: That's what everyone wanted here?
- 23:17Speaker 10: Well, you would think this president loves taking credit for stuff.
- 23:20Speaker 10: He usually takes credit for just about everything. Sun comes
- 23:23Speaker 10: up in the morning and goes down in the evening,
- 23:24Speaker 10: and that's probably all because of him. The reality is
- 23:28Speaker 10: that he tried to leverage this very popular bipartisan bill
- 23:33Speaker 10: that addresses the affordability concerns of millions of Americans to
- 23:38Speaker 10: get a very unpopular bill to Save America Act. You
- 23:41Speaker 10: were just talking to Tyler about, you know, to pass through.
- 23:44Speaker 10: And I think he's just grumpy by the fact that
- 23:47Speaker 10: he's been demanding this bill Save of America to get
- 23:52Speaker 10: passed for quite some time and he couldn't even get
- 23:55Speaker 10: this incredibly popular bill that he held hostage to do
- 23:59Speaker 10: the trick for him. So at the end of the day,
- 24:01Speaker 10: I think he's just grumpy about this. It is a
- 24:03Speaker 10: positive thing. No president would not want to sign a
- 24:07Speaker 10: bipartisan bill where eighty percent of the House and Senate
- 24:10Speaker 10: supported it, and it comes at a time when voters
- 24:14Speaker 10: really want something done in Washington around the issues of affordability,
- 24:18Speaker 10: especially housing. So you know, just chalk this one up
- 24:21Speaker 10: is Donald Trump's having a bad day. Didn't get what
- 24:25Speaker 10: he wanted. This is his temp this is his temper tantrum.
- 24:29Speaker 2: Well, and I guess as maybe he was intending, he
- 24:31Speaker 2: gave a lot of other people a bad day. Genie,
- 24:32Speaker 2: it's not just ours, it's D's who wanted to have
- 24:35Speaker 2: that signing ceremony and let everybody know what they got done.
- 24:38Speaker 2: Look no further than Elizabeth Warren, who helped to draft
- 24:41Speaker 2: big components of this housing bill. What a Democrats do
- 24:46Speaker 2: with this on the campaign trail. Is this still promotable
- 24:49Speaker 2: or we moving on to the next thing.
- 24:52Speaker 11: It's promotable, and I think what they're going to do
- 24:55Speaker 11: on the campaign trail is speak the truth about the president.
- 24:58Speaker 11: It's not just that he's had a bad, bad day.
- 25:01Speaker 11: It's not just that he's grumpy. He is not signing
- 25:04Speaker 11: this bill, the first housing bill in thirty years, because
- 25:08Speaker 11: it is not a priority. Issues of affordability and housing
- 25:12Speaker 11: are simply not an priority for this president.
- 25:16Speaker 3: That's why his approval.
- 25:18Speaker 11: Rating is at about sixty percent disapproval when it comes
- 25:21Speaker 11: to the economy. And the other part of this is
- 25:25Speaker 11: why is the president so bent on this Save America
- 25:29Speaker 11: Act with at which experts from both sides say will
- 25:32Speaker 11: disenfranchise millions of voters going to the polls in a
- 25:36Speaker 11: few months. It's part of a long term quest on
- 25:39Speaker 11: the part of the president to take on the election
- 25:43Speaker 11: administration in this country and to ensure that what happens
- 25:48Speaker 11: in November he controls the rules. He's you know, started
- 25:52Speaker 11: with mid decade redistricting. He's attacked absentee ballots, he fired
- 25:57Speaker 11: the election commissioners yesterday. He's bully states into the voter roles.
- 26:02Speaker 11: This is about him controlling what happens in November because
- 26:06Speaker 11: he knows he cannot win in a fair and square election.
- 26:10Speaker 11: That's what's happening, not just because he's having a bad
- 26:13Speaker 11: day or grumpy.
- 26:15Speaker 3: Well, i'll tell you, Rick.
- 26:16Speaker 2: Some of the analysis that we've heard from Bloomberg Intelligence,
- 26:20Speaker 2: for instance, in our colleague Nathan Dean here in Washington,
- 26:23Speaker 2: is that he took a lot of the teeth out
- 26:24Speaker 2: of this bill. They took bier rent out of this bill,
- 26:27Speaker 2: a lot of the components that might have actually kept
- 26:29Speaker 2: institutional buyers out of the market, and some of the
- 26:32Speaker 2: other things that Democrats and Republicans were looking for. Does
- 26:36Speaker 2: the president, while not popular to make this point, have
- 26:40Speaker 2: one when he says it's a big yawn, Yeah, I
- 26:44Speaker 2: think if.
- 26:44Speaker 10: You'd fill in the blanks and said the kinds of
- 26:47Speaker 10: things you just repeated, I think he'd have a shot
- 26:49Speaker 10: on goal saying you haven't done enough. But basically what
- 26:54Speaker 10: he's saying is I'm okay to sign this bill. You
- 26:56Speaker 10: just got to send me what I want in addition
- 26:58Speaker 10: to it. And that's a different argument, and he just
- 27:02Speaker 10: can't get out of his own political way to do that.
- 27:04Speaker 10: I would say if the Democrats spend all their time
- 27:06Speaker 10: talking about Donald Trump on this bill, It's going to
- 27:08Speaker 10: be a total waste of a perfectly good bill for them.
- 27:10Speaker 10: I mean, you're right, it's more optics than it is teeth.
- 27:14Speaker 10: But both Republicans and Democrats will make as much political
- 27:19Speaker 10: value out of it as they can. But there's absolutely
- 27:22Speaker 10: no value to spending a lot of time talking about
- 27:25Speaker 10: how Donald Trump didn't sign the bill. Americans don't really
- 27:28Speaker 10: care how bill comes into effect. No, this is going
- 27:32Speaker 10: to be a win regardless of what happens at the
- 27:34Speaker 10: White House.
- 27:36Speaker 2: I don't remember this on the Schoolhouse Rock Genie the
- 27:39Speaker 2: whole ten day rule.
- 27:39Speaker 3: But you know, we're learning as we go here. Great panel,
- 27:42Speaker 3: and here's good news.
- 27:43Speaker 2: Rick and Jeanie will be back for the late edition
- 27:45Speaker 2: of Balance of Power that starts at five pm Eastern.
- 27:48Speaker 2: I'll see you both back here at that time. Bloomberg
- 27:51Speaker 2: Politics contributors Geenie Schanzano and Rick Davis. Great panel. Thank
- 27:54Speaker 2: you both. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll
- 27:56Speaker 2: have much more coming up after this.
- 28:02Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
- 28:06Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on
- 28:09Speaker 1: Applecarchlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen
- 28:13Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us
- 28:16Speaker 1: live on YouTube.
- 28:19Speaker 2: More on the Friday trade that suddenly gets a lot
- 28:22Speaker 2: more interesting. The S and P five hundred Nasdaq one
- 28:25Speaker 2: hundred both now at session highs and memory stocks just
- 28:29Speaker 2: took another leg up. And when I say that, I
- 28:31Speaker 2: mean Micron also has turned positive, which had been lower
- 28:36Speaker 2: until a short time ago. This is all because of
- 28:38Speaker 2: the CEO at the aforementioned SK. Heinez in its first
- 28:42Speaker 2: day of trading, went further than the chair did. Chair Shay,
- 28:46Speaker 2: in conversation with Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow, as we were just
- 28:50Speaker 2: discussing a short time ago, trying to get our arms
- 28:53Speaker 2: around how long the memory shortage might last, how long
- 28:58Speaker 2: until this is a cyclical story again, Chairman Shay didn't
- 29:02Speaker 2: venture to guess or offer a date, but the CEO
- 29:06Speaker 2: of SK just telling Bloomberg News the memory chip shortage
- 29:11Speaker 2: may persist beyond twenty thirty, a red headline on the
- 29:15Speaker 2: terminal beyond twenty thirty. And of course SK is doing
- 29:20Speaker 2: quite nicely at the moment. It's up about fifteen percent.
- 29:23Speaker 2: Micron again turning positive, up a half percent, approaching one
- 29:26Speaker 2: thousand dollars. We're at nine ninety seven right now. Sand
- 29:30Speaker 2: Disc higher by almost five percent, Samsung is up one
- 29:33Speaker 2: and a half percent, and even in Vidia catches a
- 29:36Speaker 2: bid today. It was higher before this headline, and it's
- 29:39Speaker 2: finding a new altitude, up about seven dollars or four
- 29:44Speaker 2: percent to two hundred and ten dollars for Nvidia. Let's
- 29:48Speaker 2: bring in normal, Linda, I want to hold onto this
- 29:50Speaker 2: moment for some time if we can, because this is
- 29:53Speaker 2: a slightly different market than we had when we even
- 29:55Speaker 2: started the show. Bloomberg Markets Correspondent with us live from
- 29:59Speaker 2: New York. That's incredible, Nora, how one headline can change
- 30:03Speaker 2: an entire session.
- 30:05Speaker 12: Absolutely, it's interesting as we're seeing major indexes hitting session highs.
- 30:09Speaker 12: But just broadly, this isn't just another IPO. This is
- 30:12Speaker 12: also just assign that investors are pouring money into the
- 30:16Speaker 12: companies building AI infrastructure, not just the companies that are
- 30:19Speaker 12: making the AI software. And so as you see the
- 30:21Speaker 12: double digit gains that we're seeing on sk Heinachs, and
- 30:24Speaker 12: we're seeing the broad based rally across chip makers, tech
- 30:27Speaker 12: and the market more holistically, it really just shows you
- 30:31Speaker 12: that the market is really looking toward the tech industry
- 30:33Speaker 12: to essentially chart the next steps forward. We know that
- 30:37Speaker 12: sk Heinis is already investing about thirty five billion dollars
- 30:40Speaker 12: in the United States, but we heard from the chairman
- 30:43Speaker 12: that he says, quote much much bigger plan. He has
- 30:46Speaker 12: a much much bigger plan to invest more money in
- 30:49Speaker 12: the United States. And of course we know this kind
- 30:51Speaker 12: of sits squarely with Washington's goal. We know President Trump
- 30:54Speaker 12: has been wanting a lot of these foreign manufacturers to
- 30:56Speaker 12: pour more money and do more manufacturing in the United States.
- 31:00Speaker 12: So if you take a look at just Micron earlier
- 31:02Speaker 12: in the week saying that they were going to up
- 31:04Speaker 12: their investment to two hundred and fifty billion dollars from
- 31:07Speaker 12: two hundred billion dollars, This of course is just adding
- 31:09Speaker 12: to the optimism that we are seeing with s k
- 31:12Speaker 12: Heinez today as we think about what it could look
- 31:14Speaker 12: like the future here in the United States as it
- 31:16Speaker 12: relates to artificial intelligence and chip infrastructure more broadly.
- 31:21Speaker 2: Chip trade gets a nice boost here. You know who's lower,
- 31:24Speaker 2: of course, those who need to buy these chips. Nora
- 31:27Speaker 2: Dell right now is suddenly lower down about one percent.
- 31:30Speaker 2: Apple is lower by almost one percent, and frankly most
- 31:34Speaker 2: of the mag seven lower. Now, these are the companies
- 31:37Speaker 2: spending the money on this hard to find memory.
- 31:40Speaker 12: Absolutely, so you are seeing a bit of divergence in
- 31:42Speaker 12: the market. As you mentioned, the companies that are having
- 31:44Speaker 12: to spend tons of money on these chips. We know
- 31:48Speaker 12: we're dealing with this shortage, and of course as headlines
- 31:51Speaker 12: just crossing the wire really boosting the market when we
- 31:53Speaker 12: think about memory chip makers in particular, But when you
- 31:56Speaker 12: think about the companies that actually have to buy the chips,
- 31:58Speaker 12: it's no surprise that you would start seeing people in
- 32:00Speaker 12: the market, investors selling off on Wall Street. Is there
- 32:04Speaker 12: a bit apprehensive as to whether or not these companies
- 32:06Speaker 12: are actually able to support the amount of money needed
- 32:09Speaker 12: to get these chips brought into their companies to continue
- 32:13Speaker 12: work efficiently.
- 32:15Speaker 3: Great, Nora, thank you, I appreciate the insights.
- 32:18Speaker 2: On a busy Friday, live from New York, normal Linda
- 32:20Speaker 2: here reporting live on Bloomberg. Pretty interesting moment. We'll update
- 32:25Speaker 2: the markets for you again at the top of the hour,
- 32:27Speaker 2: As I mentioned, two pm Eastern, when we hear once
- 32:30Speaker 2: again from Charlie Pellett, the other big story beyond sk
- 32:33Speaker 2: that we've been following this hour and throughout the day
- 32:35Speaker 2: is what is happening with Iran. With the President of
- 32:39Speaker 2: the United States issuing a mixed message in a single
- 32:41Speaker 2: post against today, very similar to what he said out
- 32:44Speaker 2: loud at the NATO summit. Now in writing as he
- 32:48Speaker 2: talks about the Islamic Republic of Iran, asking asking he
- 32:52Speaker 2: says the US to continue talks. We have agreed to
- 32:54Speaker 2: do so there's the good news, at least in the
- 32:57Speaker 2: eyes of the market. But he says the US has
- 32:59Speaker 2: stated to them in no uncertain terms that the cease
- 33:03Speaker 2: fire is over. Both of these he indicated he said
- 33:07Speaker 2: cease fire over and said he was open allowing talks
- 33:09Speaker 2: at least to continue well in Ankara, and since then,
- 33:13Speaker 2: of course, we've seen two straight days of strikes. Things
- 33:17Speaker 2: are pretty quiet right now, the President holding his fire
- 33:20Speaker 2: for apparently the next leg in this whole fight. And
- 33:23Speaker 2: I've been looking forward to talking with Treta. Treta Parsi,
- 33:26Speaker 2: executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft,
- 33:30Speaker 2: an important voice in this conversation beyond some of the
- 33:33Speaker 2: experts that we talked to, because for Trida it's personal
- 33:37Speaker 2: in a lot of ways. He was born in Iran,
- 33:39Speaker 2: but moved with his family here at the young age
- 33:42Speaker 2: of four, moved to Sweden in order to escape political
- 33:45Speaker 2: repression in Iran. His dad was an outspoken academic who
- 33:49Speaker 2: was jailed by the Shah and then by the Ayatola,
- 33:52Speaker 2: So consider his point of view ahead of this conversation. Treta,
- 33:56Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Welcome back to bloom Ion.
- 34:00Speaker 2: Your thoughts on the way the president is offering this
- 34:02Speaker 2: sort of split screen message which manifests itself on a
- 34:06Speaker 2: day to day basis. Sometimes we are talking, sometimes we
- 34:09Speaker 2: are shooting.
- 34:10Speaker 13: What do we call this, Well, it's starting to become
- 34:13Speaker 13: a Swiss cheese of a ceasefire, and at some point
- 34:17Speaker 13: it's going to fall apart if it continues this way.
- 34:20Speaker 13: I frankly think that both sides have overreacted. I think
- 34:23Speaker 13: it was obviously wrong of the Aarnians to shoot at
- 34:25Speaker 13: the ships. They're very worried that the US was trying
- 34:28Speaker 13: to set up a sudden corridor that would be outside
- 34:32Speaker 13: of Yvonne's control. So if the US were to restart
- 34:34Speaker 13: the war, which of course the Vannians are very suspicious
- 34:37Speaker 13: that he might the Varnians would no longer have the
- 34:40Speaker 13: strait as a weapon and as a leverage, and given
- 34:43Speaker 13: the fact that it was crucial for them, it's understandable
- 34:46Speaker 13: that they're going to be protective of it.
- 34:48Speaker 5: But shooting at the ships was an overreaction.
- 34:51Speaker 13: And then you know, the manner in which the United
- 34:53Speaker 13: States responded here was also, in my view, unnecessary. Some
- 34:57Speaker 13: response was warranted, but this went beyond that. And it's
- 35:01Speaker 13: not that there is an impossibility to get back to talks.
- 35:04Speaker 13: There already seems to be some significant efforts. It's that
- 35:08Speaker 13: this memorandum period was supposed to be used to actually
- 35:12Speaker 13: help build some confidence between the two sides so they
- 35:15Speaker 13: could strike a final deal. But so far it seems
- 35:19Speaker 13: that this effort has been a confidence depleting effort rather
- 35:22Speaker 13: than a confidence building period, and that's very problematic because
- 35:27Speaker 13: ultimately that makes it more difficult to get a lasting deal.
- 35:31Speaker 5: At the end of this.
- 35:33Speaker 2: President called the regime scum this week, among other interesting names. Clearly,
- 35:39Speaker 2: there's no trust on our side of things, and that's
- 35:42Speaker 2: probably deserved. Do you believe or expect that Iran will
- 35:46Speaker 2: trust Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff enough to make a deal.
- 35:50Speaker 13: No, I don't think either side is going to trust
- 35:53Speaker 13: the other. And as you mentioned, the US has now
- 35:55Speaker 13: attacked Iran twice in the midst of negotiations, including killing
- 36:00Speaker 13: Supreme leader. So trust is beyond what we can expect.
- 36:03Speaker 13: But one can trust the incentive and interest of the
- 36:07Speaker 13: other side to be a guide of how they will act.
- 36:10Speaker 13: And if there is a deal that actually is good
- 36:12Speaker 13: for both sides and it's better than the alternative, then
- 36:15Speaker 13: you can trust that they will follow their own self
- 36:18Speaker 13: interest in a rational way and stick to it. That's
- 36:21Speaker 13: the sweet spot that the two countries have to find.
- 36:25Speaker 2: Remember, help is on its way. President Trump posted that
- 36:29Speaker 2: untruth social to the people of Iran long before the
- 36:31Speaker 2: shooting started. That was before thousands were killed by the
- 36:36Speaker 2: regime and Treda. I wonder if you can tell us
- 36:39Speaker 2: anything about the people. We never hear about those who
- 36:41Speaker 2: actually live in Iran. We saw the video of people
- 36:43Speaker 2: chanting death to America at the Iatola's funeral last weekend,
- 36:47Speaker 2: But what is their feeling about the regime and this
- 36:50Speaker 2: stalemate that we seem to be in.
- 36:54Speaker 13: I think, Franklly, this war has galvanized the supporters of
- 36:59Speaker 13: the regime with in Ivan significantly. In some ways, this
- 37:03Speaker 13: war has actually saved the Islamic Republic because it was
- 37:06Speaker 13: undoubtedly facing a significant legitimacy crisis back in December and January.
- 37:13Speaker 13: But just as Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran back in
- 37:16Speaker 13: nineteen eighty actually helped save the Islamic republicas back then
- 37:19Speaker 13: they had not fully consolidated their power, but an external
- 37:23Speaker 13: enemy enabled them to do so. I think the US attack,
- 37:27Speaker 13: completely contrary to what Trump thought, ended up doing pretty
- 37:30Speaker 13: much to say, do they have the majority support of
- 37:33Speaker 13: the population.
- 37:34Speaker 5: I do not believe so.
- 37:36Speaker 13: I think their support levels prior to this war was
- 37:38Speaker 13: probably no more than fifteen to twenty percent, and after
- 37:42Speaker 13: the war it may have gone up. But more importantly,
- 37:44Speaker 13: those fifteen to twenty percent or twenty five percent are
- 37:47Speaker 13: now much more intense in their level of support for
- 37:50Speaker 13: the regime because, in their view, believe.
- 37:54Speaker 3: Sorry, go ahead, go ahead, finish your answer.
- 37:57Speaker 13: Yeah, because from their view formed it protected the country
- 38:02Speaker 13: against two countries that have nuclear weapons, and nationalism sentiments
- 38:06Speaker 13: always tend to take over in moments like this.
- 38:09Speaker 5: Whether they last or not is a different story.
- 38:12Speaker 3: I understand.
- 38:13Speaker 2: Do you believe that a popular uprising is the only
- 38:15Speaker 2: way to topple this regime, with or without the help
- 38:17Speaker 2: of the US.
- 38:19Speaker 13: Well, I think external help is actually extremely unhelpful. I
- 38:22Speaker 13: don't think help ever was on its way, regardless of
- 38:25Speaker 13: what Trump was saying. This is something that only the
- 38:28Speaker 13: Iranians can handle at the end of the day. Now,
- 38:30Speaker 13: there was a lot of belief in that before. The
- 38:33Speaker 13: belief in it completely dwindled in the last couple of years,
- 38:36Speaker 13: and there was a sentiment, at least amongst the majority,
- 38:39Speaker 13: that nothing could happen unless there was help from the outside. Well,
- 38:42Speaker 13: now we saw that, we saw the war, we saw
- 38:44Speaker 13: what that did, and it certainly didn't help.
- 38:46Speaker 5: It was counterproductive.
- 38:47Speaker 13: So I do think that this system is going to change,
- 38:51Speaker 13: but it's going to have to be because of change
- 38:53Speaker 13: agents from inside Iranians themselves doing it. It may take
- 38:57Speaker 13: a very long time. It may not move in a
- 39:00Speaker 13: straight direction. In fact, I think it's been moving backwards
- 39:03Speaker 13: for at least the last ten or so years.
- 39:05Speaker 5: But I don't see any other pathway.
- 39:08Speaker 2: Well so do Iranians. The people of Iran believe that
- 39:12Speaker 2: the US abandoned them. Is this some sort of Middle
- 39:14Speaker 2: Eastern bay of pigs.
- 39:16Speaker 13: Well for those who actually believed that the US would
- 39:20Speaker 13: come to their aid, yes, I think there is a
- 39:23Speaker 13: sense of betrayal that they have. I don't think that
- 39:26Speaker 13: was the majority. I think a majority had a variety
- 39:30Speaker 13: of opinions, ranging from never believing the US, never believing
- 39:33Speaker 13: that the US actually would act in the interests of
- 39:35Speaker 13: the Ivanian people, but it would act in its own interest.
- 39:40Speaker 13: So having a more cynaple view of countries, which I
- 39:42Speaker 13: personally think is healthy because it's more accurate.
- 39:44Speaker 5: To be frank, it's not just the US, it's all states.
- 39:47Speaker 13: But also those who, because of looking at what happened
- 39:51Speaker 13: in Libya, in Syria, in Iraq, in Afghanistan, believe that
- 39:55Speaker 13: even if the intentions of the US were good, the
- 39:57Speaker 13: capacity to actually follow go through and make sure that
- 40:01Speaker 13: it's a success was simply not there. We're very skeptical
- 40:04Speaker 13: of this in the first place, because the track cricket
- 40:06Speaker 13: of the US in the region, particularly in terms of
- 40:09Speaker 13: democratizing countries, is abyssmal. So I think the majority fell
- 40:13Speaker 13: in that camp, and a very small minority out of
- 40:16Speaker 13: desperation because of the repression of the government. We're hoping
- 40:20Speaker 13: that a war potentially could bring down the regime, and
- 40:23Speaker 13: it did the opposite.
- 40:25Speaker 2: Really something, Treeta, I've only got about a minute left.
- 40:29Speaker 2: If the ceasefire is over, like the President says, we'll
- 40:32Speaker 2: take him out his word.
- 40:33Speaker 3: Are we starting from scratch.
- 40:36Speaker 13: If the ceasefire is truly over and the MoU is over.
- 40:39Speaker 13: Because the ceasefire can be over and the MU is
- 40:41Speaker 13: still standing. Not only are we starting from scratch, we're
- 40:44Speaker 13: starting from a worse situation because the war.
- 40:48Speaker 5: So if you take a look at all.
- 40:49Speaker 13: Inventories right now, are the strategic preserve is much lower
- 40:52Speaker 13: than it was in February, So the war would restart
- 40:55Speaker 13: at a much worse position. Economically, the runway the US
- 40:59Speaker 13: would have would be much shorter, and we're also closer
- 41:02Speaker 13: to the midterms, so.
- 41:03Speaker 5: It would be a much worse situation.
- 41:04Speaker 13: On top of that, any trust or confidence and going
- 41:08Speaker 13: for a ceasefire would be far less than it was before,
- 41:11Speaker 13: and it was very difficult in the first time.
- 41:14Speaker 3: I want to keep talking with you, Treta. Thank you
- 41:16Speaker 3: for coming on the program today.
- 41:17Speaker 2: Treta parsis Executive VP at the Quincy Institute for Responsible
- 41:21Speaker 2: Statecraft and we appreciate your insight. Thanks for listening to
- 41:27Speaker 2: the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if
- 41:30Speaker 2: you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get
- 41:33Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday
- 41:36Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at New Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.