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ESPN's College Football Playoff Projections · The Craig Way Show

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  Speaker 1: Craig Wade, joined by the producer Cameron Parker. We're with
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  Speaker 1: you up until five o'clock and a reminder Longhorn Weekly
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  Speaker 1: with coach Sark. We record that program at six o'clock
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  Speaker 1: from six to seven at Plucker's the West Campus location
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  Speaker 1: at twenty two to twenty two Rio Grand So we
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  Speaker 1: look forward to seeing you out there tonight to hear
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  Speaker 1: from the coach. Also, Derek Dockery will be with us
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  Speaker 1: out there. Derek one of the outstanding offensive lineman in
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  Speaker 1: the University of Texas system from nineteen ninety nine to
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  Speaker 1: two thousand and two. He was He's a Texas Athletics
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  Speaker 1: Hall of Honor member and he was part of background's
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  Speaker 1: first full signing class in nineteen ninety nine, which was
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  Speaker 1: the nation's number one ranked class. Matt called him the
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  Speaker 1: best true freshman offensive lineman he ever coached, and of
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  Speaker 1: course he played then. He was drafted in the third round.
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  Speaker 1: Play ten seasons in the NFL, mainly with Washington and
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  Speaker 1: also a Buffalo briefly with the Cowboy as well. Played
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  Speaker 1: in one hundred and forty one games of one hundred
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  Speaker 1: and fifteen starts. Native Texan too, he was a Lake
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  Speaker 1: new Centennial Patriot from Garland as well, so he will
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  Speaker 1: be our special guest during the portion tonight. And if
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  Speaker 1: you have questions that you would like to have asked,
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  Speaker 1: all you have to do is write that down. We
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  Speaker 1: have the question cards and we get the questions as
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  Speaker 1: well the program. Sark Undoubtedly we'll discuss the team's efforts
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  Speaker 1: and intentions to rebound from the loss to Georgia and
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  Speaker 1: to get ready to go back on the road for
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  Speaker 1: a true road game to play Vanderbilt. And that'll be
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  Speaker 1: this Saturday afternoon in Nashville.
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  Speaker 2: Our coverage begins at noon from Twin Peaks.
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  Speaker 1: They're I thirty five in Stassny, the South location as
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  Speaker 1: Cameron Parker, Mike Hardballharg and Mark Henry will set the
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  Speaker 1: scene for you there with long Worn's game day starting
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  Speaker 1: at noon and then at two o'clock had to go
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  Speaker 1: to the network coverage with a kickoff. I'm told it's
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  Speaker 1: probably gonna be around three twenty by the time it
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  Speaker 1: kicks off there Texas against Vanderbilt. We're gonna hear more
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  Speaker 1: from Longhorn's head coach, Steve Sarkishan coming up during this
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  Speaker 1: hour from the SEC teleconference. So we'll have that, but
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  Speaker 1: before we get to that, and we're also gonna hear
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  Speaker 1: from Will Matthews as he sits down with long worn players,
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  Speaker 1: and we'll hear from Will a couple of those conversations
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  Speaker 1: that he has. Right in the four o'clock hour, we
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  Speaker 1: will here will have a chance to visit with Jayde Blue,
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  Speaker 1: so he'll do that, and later on this hour we'll
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  Speaker 1: hear his conversation with David Benda, so that's coming up
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  Speaker 1: a little bit later on this hour. But again we'll
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  Speaker 1: hear from Sark as well. Before we get to all
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  Speaker 1: of that, though, we've been doing this and that is
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  Speaker 1: to update the projected. The key word there after all
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  Speaker 1: is projected, isn't it Since we're talking about teams that
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  Speaker 1: are no more than seven or eight games into their season.
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  Speaker 1: Most of them are six or seven games into their seasons,
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  Speaker 1: so it's still projections. We haven't gotten to the College
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  Speaker 1: Football Playoff Committee's first set of CFP rankings that comes
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  Speaker 1: I think November fifth, I think is the first one
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  Speaker 1: there on that, so.
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  Speaker 2: You know, we're still a little bit of ways away
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  Speaker 2: from that.
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  Speaker 1: We do have poll rankings obviously that are going on
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  Speaker 1: BOTE with the AP and the coaches. But right now,
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  Speaker 1: the best that folks who do these things can do
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  Speaker 1: is to project the bracket. It is kind of interesting,
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  Speaker 1: kind of different. It kind of has that feel cam
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  Speaker 1: of when we do the bracketological prognostications for the NCAA
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  Speaker 1: men's and women's basketball tournaments, when we're going through that
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  Speaker 1: in February into March, and this kind of has that.
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  Speaker 2: A little bit of feel to it.
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  Speaker 1: Although we're talking about twelve total, twelve teams, but the
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  Speaker 1: machinations that are going on about who could get in,
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  Speaker 1: who might get in. Remembering that at the five highest
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  Speaker 1: ranked conference champions, of the ones who get automatic bids
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  Speaker 1: into the playoff, the four of the five who are
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  Speaker 1: ranked the highest will receive first round by is the
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  Speaker 1: four highest ranked conference champions. It is a reasonable assumption
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  Speaker 1: that those four will be from the Power forward conferences.
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  Speaker 1: That the conference champions from the SEC, the Big Ten,
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  Speaker 1: the ACC, and the Big twelve would all draw first
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  Speaker 1: round buys. They're just going to be higher ranked than
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  Speaker 1: that fifth conference champion, which would be a G five school,
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  Speaker 1: a group of five, whether it's the American Athletic Conference
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  Speaker 1: or the Mountain West. Even if it was the Sun
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  Speaker 1: Belt or Conference USA or you know whatever that whichever
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  Speaker 1: team emerges from from those conferences as the highest ranked
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  Speaker 1: G five, they might on ranking alone, crack the top twelve,
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  Speaker 1: but probably not.
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  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter.
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  Speaker 1: They would automatically be slotted into the number twelve position.
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  Speaker 2: The number twelve.
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  Speaker 1: I saw projection today that had Boise State in as
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  Speaker 1: the G five represented the highest ranked.
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  Speaker 2: Conference champion.
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  Speaker 1: That wasn't a powerful school and you were the you
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  Speaker 1: know where they were ranked as a D seventeenth, but
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  Speaker 1: they get automatically slotted into the twelve slot. That's how
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  Speaker 1: that works on that So it can mess with your
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  Speaker 1: mind if you're watching these projections on the bracket for ESPN,
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  Speaker 1: because there's two sets of numbers. There's the current ranking,
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  Speaker 1: don't let that throw you off, and then there is
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  Speaker 1: what would be the playoff ranking. That's what counts, that's
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  Speaker 1: what matters, and we'll find that out starting November fifth,
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  Speaker 1: what the committee.
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  Speaker 2: Thinks of these teams.
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  Speaker 1: But in the meantime, folks can have a lot of
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  Speaker 1: fun with the projection of the bracket. And I look
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  Speaker 1: at I think, like with basketball, I look at three
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  Speaker 1: or four different sets of projections and one of the
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  Speaker 1: most trustworthy is the one from ESPN, and it's Heather
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  Speaker 1: Dinitch who puts it together because she does a deep
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  Speaker 1: dive on that all the time and is into it.
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  Speaker 1: So here's what she has right now. Her project to
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  Speaker 1: twelve team bracket first round bys number one seed Oregon,
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  Speaker 1: number two seed Georgia. They said Georgia would earn the
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  Speaker 1: number two seed is the Committee's second highest rank conference champion.
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  Speaker 1: With its win at Texas, Georgia now has the top
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  Speaker 1: resume in the FBS. According to ESPN's strength of Record metric,
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  Speaker 1: the average playoff contender would have a fifteen percent chance
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  Speaker 1: to go six and one against Georgia's schedule. Georgia's convincing
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  Speaker 1: season opening win against Clemson is a big reason for that,
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  Speaker 1: as the Bulldogs now have two of the best wins
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  Speaker 1: in the country. Number three seed, which would draw by
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  Speaker 1: ACC champion Miami and number four Are you ready for this?
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  Speaker 1: The number four seed, who would draw by ladies and gentlemen.
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  Speaker 2: I give you b yu now those googars. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Now, BYU and Iowa State do not meet during the
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  Speaker 1: regular season, but there is an ever increasing set of
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  Speaker 1: odds that are showing those two on a collision course
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  Speaker 1: for Arlington to meet in the Big twelve championship, both
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  Speaker 1: as unbeaten teams we'll see and Iowa State's best win
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  Speaker 1: is against Iowa and they're now four and three, so
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  Speaker 1: they don't have a strong strength of schedule. And BYU
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  Speaker 1: has that head to head a home win against Kansas State,
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  Speaker 1: and remember they have a road win at SMU, so
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  Speaker 1: that's impressive there. So those four would get buys. Then
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  Speaker 1: first round matchups on campus. You ready, Long Horns five
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  Speaker 1: versus twelve Texas against Boise State because remember the G
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  Speaker 1: five schools can to be locked into the twelve the
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  Speaker 1: fifth highest ranked conference champion, which is projected by Heather
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  Speaker 1: Dinich in ESPN to be Boise State. Of course, they
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  Speaker 1: ranked below the committee's top twelve, but the seating would
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  Speaker 1: match the ranking. Said this also illustrates how Texas could
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  Speaker 1: finish as the number three team in the country, but
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  Speaker 1: they can't seed at any higher than number five because
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  Speaker 1: the first four seeds are reserved for conference champions. So
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  Speaker 1: they said, the Long Ranges just did just slid behind
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  Speaker 1: George and the SEC race. The nine versus eight matchup
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  Speaker 1: Tennessee LSU, and they don't play during the regular season,
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  Speaker 1: and the winner would then play Oregon. The eleven versus
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  Speaker 1: six matchup, it's the Big Ten Invitational, it's Indiana Ohio State.
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  Speaker 2: That game would be at Ohio State.
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  Speaker 1: Obviously, the Texas Boise State game would be in Austin,
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  Speaker 1: so the winner to play number three seed Miami. Now,
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  Speaker 1: remember Indiana's playing Ohio State on November twenty third, so
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  Speaker 1: they don't recede to avoid.
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  Speaker 2: Rematches, So that's how that could happen again.
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  Speaker 1: The seven versus the ten would be Penn State against Clemson.
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  Speaker 1: The last two in according to ESPN Athletic Analytics, would
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  Speaker 1: be Indiana and Boise. The first four out noted Iowa State,
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  Speaker 1: Kansas State, and Illinois. The next four out Texas A
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  Speaker 1: and m Ole, Miss, Alabama, and pitt So there's some
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  Speaker 1: interesting things to two on a little bit to think
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  Speaker 1: about that.
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  Speaker 3: So it's gonna just like with college of basketball, it's
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  Speaker 3: gonna change so much. But sure, you know we're getting
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  Speaker 3: this point in the season, Craig, where we're gonna learn
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  Speaker 3: a lot more each and every week and we'll have
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  Speaker 3: a pretty good idea going into the conference championship. Now,
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  Speaker 3: of course, a big difference between the top four in
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  Speaker 3: college football playoff in the top the number one four seats,
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  Speaker 3: and march Man is that you can lose your conference
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  Speaker 3: championship champions championship game but still be a number one seed.
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  Speaker 2: In march Men, that's right, that's right.
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  Speaker 1: Because of the strength to schedule all the way through
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  Speaker 1: the course of the regular season, that won't happen. In
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  Speaker 1: college football. We are all, after all, talking about just
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  Speaker 1: twelve teams and only five automatic bids as opposed to
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  Speaker 1: thirty four with the NCAA basketball tournament. And so there's
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  Speaker 1: only five automatic and only four will receive first round byes. Now,
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  Speaker 1: it's important to point out that even though Texas has
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  Speaker 1: a loss, and of course Georgia has a loss, and
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  Speaker 1: Tennessee has a loss, LSU in Texas, A and M
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  Speaker 1: do not. They play this week in college station. So
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  Speaker 1: the loser that will have a loss a one loss
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  Speaker 1: wouldn't necessarily a keep you out of your conference championship
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  Speaker 1: game and b keep you from getting a first round
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  Speaker 1: by whoever wins the conference championship is getting a first
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  Speaker 1: round by so Texas or Georgia or Tennessee or you know,
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  Speaker 1: the loser of LSU in Texas A and m Missouri.
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  Speaker 2: All those one loss teas.
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  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt has one loss, right now, Ole Miss has one loss,
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  Speaker 1: so no Ole Miss hays two. So the one loss teams, yeah,
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  Speaker 1: you'd still have a shot to get into the conference championship.
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  Speaker 2: Even the two loss teams have a shot to get
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  Speaker 2: into the game.
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  Speaker 1: So that's how a two loss team also can wind
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  Speaker 1: up in the playoff team that could get a bye
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  Speaker 1: if they got into the playoff, into the conference championship
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  Speaker 1: with two losses and then one their conference championship. The
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  Speaker 1: odds are stacked against it happening, but it could happen,
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  Speaker 1: all right. Coming up, we're gonna hear more from Longhorts
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  Speaker 1: head coach Steve Sarkisian here on sports Radio AM thirteen
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  Speaker 1: under the zone of the iHeartRadio app.