Latest / The President's Daily Brief / The PDB Situation Report | September 26th, 2026: Iran’s Economy Is Starting to Fall Apart

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The PDB Situation Report | September 26th, 2026: Iran’s Economy Is Starting to Fall Apart · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:07
  Welcome to the PDB Situation Report.
• 0:10
  I'm Mike Baker.
• 0:11
  Your eyes and ears on the world stage.
• 0:13
  All right,
• 0:14
  let's get briefed.
• 0:15
  First up,
• 0:15
  Washington is tightening the screws on the Iranian regime
• 0:18
  with new sanctions and of course the continuing blockade of Iranian ports.
• 0:23
  We'll be joined by Miyad Maliki of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
• 0:27
  to examine the sanctions campaign,
• 0:29
  the blockade's effectiveness,
• 0:30
  and what else the US could do as it looks to force change in the Iranian regime.
• 0:36
  Later in the show,
• 0:36
  as Washington increases the economic pressure on Tehran,
• 0:40
  we'll look at the impact that
• 0:41
  that pressure is having on the Iranian people and whether that strain
• 0:45
  could translate into new unrest.
• 0:48
  We'll get an inside look from Alireza Jefferzadeh of
• 0:51
  the National Council of the Resistance of Iran.
• 0:53
  But first,
• 0:54
  today's Situation Report spotlight.
• 0:57
  Washington is turning up the economic pressure on Iran,
• 1:00
  and the latest move is aimed at something very visible
• 1:03
  keeping Iranian aircraft on the ground.
• 1:05
  The Treasury Department is warning foreign airports,
• 1:08
  fuel suppliers,
• 1:09
  ground handlers,
• 1:10
  and ticketing companies
• 1:11
  that servicing sanctioned Iranian carriers could expose them to US penalties.
• 1:16
  Some countries have already begun restricting flights,
• 1:19
  while others,
• 1:20
  including China,
• 1:21
  well,
• 1:21
  there's a surprise,
• 1:22
  are resisting the pressure.
• 1:24
  The question now is how effective this campaign can be,
• 1:27
  how much further Washington can push it,
• 1:29
  and whether Tehran
• 1:30
  can find enough willing partners
• 1:33
  to keep its airlines operating.
• 1:35
  Joining me now is Mia Maliki.
• 1:37
  He's a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
• 1:40
  and a former senior sanctions official at the US Treasury Department.
• 1:44
  And during his time at Treasury,
• 1:45
  Miyad helped oversee sanctions targeting Iran
• 1:48
  and the network of groups that it supports across the Middle East,
• 1:51
  and it's quite the network of groups including Hezbollah,
• 1:54
  Hamas,
• 1:54
  the Houthis,
• 1:55
  and Iraqi militias.
• 1:57
  Miyad,
• 1:57
  thank you very much for taking the time to join us here on The Situation Report.
• 2:02
  Thanks for having me.
• 2:03
  Great to be with you.
• 2:04
  Uh,
• 2:04
  I appreciate that very much.
• 2:06
  And
• 2:06
  let me ask you a question.
• 2:07
  It's gonna sound very simplistic,
• 2:09
  but I think a lot of people probably think the same way that I do.
• 2:12
  I,
• 2:12
  I pride myself on my
• 2:14
  simplistic ways.
• 2:16
  Uh.
• 2:18
  We just,
• 2:19
  uh,
• 2:19
  we,
• 2:19
  we,
• 2:19
  I wanna ask you questions about the airline sanctions that have been put into place,
• 2:23
  that,
• 2:23
  that Treasury Secretary Scott Besson talked about.
• 2:26
  But
• 2:27
  in the world of sanctions,
• 2:29
  And I realize every,
• 2:31
  every situation is somewhat different.
• 2:34
  But with Iranian regime
• 2:36
  sanctions.
• 2:37
  You look at all the,
• 2:38
  the,
• 2:38
  the different things you could do.
• 2:40
  And
• 2:41
  I guess my question is,
• 2:42
  why don't we just do it all at one time?
• 2:44
  It seems like there's a never-ending
• 2:46
  supply of other sanctions that we can layer on
• 2:49
  when perhaps
• 2:51
  when we're talking about an organization like the Iranian regime.
• 2:54
  Maybe we just say,
• 2:55
  let's just
• 2:55
  do them all at once.
• 2:59
  That's actually is not a simple question.
• 3:02
  That's a very nuanced question.
• 3:04
  And um
• 3:05
  and,
• 3:06
  and,
• 3:06
  and here's,
• 3:07
  here's my
• 3:08
  response to that,
• 3:09
  you know,
• 3:09
  sanctions.
• 3:11
  Work
• 3:12
  when they're enforced.
• 3:14
  Uh,
• 3:14
  these aviation sanctions they use as an example,
• 3:18
  these sanctions have been in place
• 3:20
  for a very long time.
• 3:22
  What Secretary Besson is doing is bringing
• 3:26
  the,
• 3:26
  the,
• 3:26
  the operational aspect of sanctions,
• 3:28
  the enforcement.
• 3:30
  Um,
• 3:31
  yes,
• 3:32
  he's expanding the scope of sanctions,
• 3:34
  the new,
• 3:35
  the new sanctions that are being added.
• 3:37
  Um,
• 3:38
  but the most important part of it
• 3:40
  is the enforcement and why it's important?
• 3:42
  Sanctions are not,
• 3:43
  um,
• 3:44
  they don't work
• 3:45
  when you add a name to the list of sanctions.
• 3:48
  Sanctions work
• 3:49
  when compliance officers
• 3:51
  in companies,
• 3:53
  when,
• 3:53
  uh,
• 3:53
  bankers,
• 3:54
  when CEOs,
• 3:56
  uh,
• 3:57
  of,
• 3:57
  of corporations that are involved,
• 3:59
  for example,
• 3:59
  in this case in service providing,
• 4:02
  provi provision of services to aviation companies,
• 4:04
  catering.
• 4:06
  Those companies,
• 4:07
  those individuals,
• 4:08
  they make decisions to stop Iran business,
• 4:11
  and they make those decisions when they see there is a risk of being sanctioned.
• 4:16
  So,
• 4:17
  You create that risk
• 4:19
  by enforcing,
• 4:20
  by showing them
• 4:21
  that there is a high level of risk
• 4:24
  if they get engaged and if they get involved in
• 4:27
  in bypassing those sanctions.
• 4:29
  So what Secretary Passon is doing
• 4:31
  is what,
• 4:32
  for example,
• 4:33
  President Biden
• 4:35
  administration didn't do.
• 4:36
  President
• 4:36
  Biden
• 4:37
  came in,
• 4:38
  wanted to engage with the Iranian regime for a deal.
• 4:41
  He didn't enforce sanctions.
• 4:43
  He didn't remove any sanctions,
• 4:44
  but he did.
• 4:45
  He simply just stopped enforcing,
• 4:47
  and when you stop enforcing,
• 4:49
  you have sanctions kind of not working anymore.
• 4:52
  So Iran went from
• 4:54
  at the end of the Trump administration.
• 4:56
  Uh,
• 4:56
  basically,
• 4:57
  uh,
• 4:57
  exporting around 100,000,
• 5:00
  100,000 barrels a day
• 5:02
  to,
• 5:03
  uh,
• 5:03
  2.5 million barrels a day.
• 5:06
  Um,
• 5:06
  sanctions didn't fall,
• 5:07
  sanctions were in place,
• 5:09
  they were just not being enforced,
• 5:10
  and what Secretary Besson is doing today
• 5:13
  is really enforcing the sanctions and putting the sanctions to work.
• 5:17
  OK,
• 5:17
  well,
• 5:17
  I think that's going to confuse a lot of people who assumed that
• 5:21
  the,
• 5:21
  yeah,
• 5:21
  the only reason to have sanctions
• 5:23
  is if there are consequences,
• 5:25
  right?
• 5:25
  Otherwise,
• 5:26
  otherwise they're not really even sanctions.
• 5:28
  They're just like,
• 5:29
  you know,
• 5:29
  they're suggestions,
• 5:31
  you know,
• 5:31
  hey,
• 5:31
  maybe you don't work with Maha Air,
• 5:34
  um,
• 5:35
  so
• 5:36
  it is,
• 5:36
  it is,
• 5:37
  I think.
• 5:38
  A very interesting point that you raised that probably will
• 5:41
  surprise a lot of people to think that the US is
• 5:43
  engaging in like this paper exercise of saying that we're sanctioning
• 5:47
  and then there are no consequences.
• 5:49
  Uh.
• 5:50
  Now,
• 5:52
  if
• 5:53
  If that's the case,
• 5:54
  and if we're now
• 5:55
  uh engaged in,
• 5:58
  in sort of the,
• 5:58
  the logical
• 5:59
  step here,
• 6:00
  which is to say that we are going to,
• 6:03
  uh,
• 6:03
  you know,
• 6:03
  follow through,
• 6:05
  uh,
• 6:05
  on our,
• 6:06
  on our talk about sanctions.
• 6:09
  This is a very broad question and kind of take it wherever you'd like to,
• 6:12
  but
• 6:15
  They also only work,
• 6:16
  would be my understanding,
• 6:18
  if
• 6:19
  Uh,
• 6:19
  key nations comply.
• 6:22
  And
• 6:23
  the key nation for Iran is,
• 6:24
  of course,
• 6:25
  China.
• 6:26
  And China seems to have no interest
• 6:28
  in
• 6:30
  worrying about US sanctions on Iran,
• 6:32
  at least at the present time.
• 6:35
  And yet we also as a country or as an administration right now,
• 6:38
  we seem to have no interest in
• 6:41
  In making that point known to the Chinese regime.
• 6:44
  It seems like we've been very timid
• 6:46
  in approaching the Chinese Communist Party or Xi Jinping,
• 6:49
  the Chinese government,
• 6:49
  and,
• 6:50
  and
• 6:51
  really,
• 6:53
  Arguing this point or,
• 6:54
  or,
• 6:54
  or even bringing it up.
• 6:56
  It seemed like certainly during the summit,
• 6:58
  um,
• 6:59
  President Trump was like,
• 7:00
  it's a very good meeting.
• 7:02
  Well,
• 7:02
  I don't see how you'd have a very good meeting if we're at war with the country
• 7:05
  and China is the primary supporter of that nation.
• 7:08
  I guess what I'm saying is,
• 7:10
  do you see,
• 7:11
  uh,
• 7:13
  Where these sanctions actually can have
• 7:16
  a serious impact.
• 7:17
  I know the blockade is having a great impact,
• 7:19
  and I apologize for this long rambling question that I'm throwing your way.
• 7:22
  The blockade is having an obvious impact,
• 7:24
  but the sanctions themselves,
• 7:26
  if the key trading partner for
• 7:28
  Iran is not engaged in that with the US.
• 7:32
  I suppose the question is very cynical,
• 7:33
  but what's the point?
• 7:37
  No,
• 7:37
  that's a really great question and a great point.
• 7:39
  So yes,
• 7:40
  China has been always a problem,
• 7:43
  uh,
• 7:43
  when it comes to our worst adversaries.
• 7:45
  Uh,
• 7:46
  China was a problem
• 7:47
  when Biden administration was trying to,
• 7:50
  um,
• 7:50
  uh,
• 7:50
  put pressure on,
• 7:51
  on Russians,
• 7:53
  and China has always been a problem with Iranians.
• 7:55
  Matter of fact,
• 7:56
  um,
• 7:57
  the only
• 7:59
  Um,
• 7:59
  uh,
• 8:00
  so our,
• 8:01
  for example,
• 8:01
  like our F-15
• 8:04
  that,
• 8:04
  that was targeted in over Iranian airspace and,
• 8:07
  and
• 8:08
  went down,
• 8:09
  it was targeted by,
• 8:11
  uh,
• 8:11
  Iranian used,
• 8:12
  um,
• 8:13
  a shoulder launcher,
• 8:14
  the surface to air missile
• 8:16
  that is made in China and was given to the Iranians.
• 8:20
  So
• 8:20
  it,
• 8:20
  it,
• 8:21
  it,
• 8:21
  it is,
• 8:22
  uh,
• 8:22
  it is a problem
• 8:23
  and I got to tell you.
• 8:25
  Uh,
• 8:25
  it's also very tricky to deal with China.
• 8:28
  US-China trade is somewhere between
• 8:31
  $500 to $600 billion.
• 8:33
  Remember,
• 8:34
  after Mexico and Canada,
• 8:36
  um,
• 8:37
  uh,
• 8:37
  China is
• 8:39
  our closest
• 8:40
  trade partner.
• 8:42
  It's a close,
• 8:43
  I mean,
• 8:43
  you look at those numbers and you think we're close friends,
• 8:46
  we're buddies.
• 8:47
  We're the best friends,
• 8:48
  you're looking at the numbers,
• 8:49
  right?
• 8:49
  But the reality is China has leveraging,
• 8:52
  um,
• 8:53
  that,
• 8:53
  that trade partnership
• 8:55
  to make things painful and difficult for us on a national security front.
• 8:59
  So I think we do need to look into opportunities to,
• 9:03
  to,
• 9:03
  um,
• 9:03
  to also leverage
• 9:05
  the,
• 9:05
  the level that the Chinese rely
• 9:08
  on US dollar and US financial system
• 9:11
  to,
• 9:11
  to compel them.
• 9:13
  Uh,
• 9:13
  to stop being a,
• 9:14
  a,
• 9:15
  a,
• 9:15
  um,
• 9:16
  a problem for us
• 9:17
  on a,
• 9:17
  on a national and foreign policy perspective,
• 9:19
  national security perspective.
• 9:22
  Now,
• 9:22
  I think,
• 9:23
  um,
• 9:23
  70 to 80% of Chinese trade still goes through US dollar
• 9:27
  and,
• 9:27
  and US financial system,
• 9:29
  um,
• 9:29
  and or,
• 9:30
  or is done or transactions are settled using US dollars.
• 9:33
  So there's a lot of opportunities there for us to put the,
• 9:35
  push the Chinese
• 9:37
  to,
• 9:37
  to,
• 9:38
  um,
• 9:39
  To be more aligned or at least not
• 9:41
  throwing roadblocks where we're trying to address certain issues.
• 9:44
  Now,
• 9:45
  um,
• 9:45
  Iran and China trade is somewhere between $10 to $12 billion a year,
• 9:50
  um,
• 9:51
  If you add oil to it,
• 9:53
  Iran's
• 9:54
  main
• 9:55
  purchaser of oil is the Chinese.
• 9:57
  However,
• 9:58
  the Chinese are not buying Iranian oil as Iranian oil.
• 10:02
  It goes to China as Malaysian,
• 10:04
  as Iraqi oil,
• 10:06
  but,
• 10:06
  but the trade with Iran
• 10:08
  is
• 10:09
  about $10 to $20 billion a year.
• 10:11
  The trade with the US is $500 to $600 billion a year.
• 10:15
  So
• 10:16
  the Chinese understand
• 10:18
  that
• 10:18
  they can't risk their US trade.
• 10:21
  Uh,
• 10:22
  over the Iran trade,
• 10:23
  and
• 10:24
  I've heard from Chinese officials
• 10:26
  that they view Iran's trade more of a liability
• 10:29
  and problems opposed to a partnership.
• 10:32
  So,
• 10:33
  um,
• 10:33
  I think we haven't pushed them hard enough.
• 10:35
  I think there are opportunities to push the Chinese to,
• 10:38
  to,
• 10:38
  to at least in this case,
• 10:40
  um,
• 10:40
  uh,
• 10:41
  not being as
• 10:42
  problematic as they've been,
• 10:44
  um,
• 10:45
  but also
• 10:45
  Iran's decision to close the Strata Formos.
• 10:49
  It has been a major annoyance.
• 10:51
  It's really has annoyed the Chinese.
• 10:53
  So
• 10:54
  we also have a diplomatic opportunities with the Chinese right now,
• 10:58
  um,
• 10:59
  to,
• 10:59
  to convince them
• 11:00
  that there would be consequences if they continue to
• 11:03
  use Iran as a leverage to pressure us,
• 11:06
  um,
• 11:07
  and that we are serious about the issue of Iran.
• 11:09
  I heard that President Trump actually raised this issue,
• 11:12
  um,
• 11:12
  in the meetings yesterday,
• 11:14
  um,
• 11:15
  and,
• 11:15
  and I.
• 11:16
  I think there are
• 11:17
  probably,
• 11:17
  and I,
• 11:18
  what I'm hearing is a lot of behind the scenes engagements with the Chinese,
• 11:22
  the Chinese private sector,
• 11:24
  putting aside
• 11:25
  the,
• 11:25
  the slogan that comes out of the Chinese government,
• 11:28
  the Chinese private sector really care about their access to US dollars.
• 11:32
  They really care about the US trade,
• 11:34
  and I think
• 11:35
  we have the engagement with the government,
• 11:37
  but the engagement with the private sector in China
• 11:40
  can be very fruitful
• 11:41
  and helpful in this case.
• 11:44
  Yeah,
• 11:44
  I would worry that,
• 11:46
  you know,
• 11:46
  when you say private sector,
• 11:47
  there's really not a private sector in China.
• 11:49
  Uh,
• 11:50
  ultimately
• 11:51
  they're not going to act,
• 11:52
  you,
• 11:52
  you're not gonna find it.
• 11:53
  It's like when we talk about,
• 11:54
  um,
• 11:55
  the concern that,
• 11:56
  you know,
• 11:57
  that some Chinese companies are providing satellite imagery
• 12:00
  that's helping the Iranian regime target American assets.
• 12:03
  It's not as if those companies are rogue.
• 12:05
  They're not acting unilaterally without the tacit understanding or approval
• 12:10
  of the Chinese government.
• 12:11
  You know,
• 12:12
  that's just,
• 12:12
  it,
• 12:12
  it's,
• 12:12
  it's not that sort of system.
• 12:15
  And so I,
• 12:16
  I worry about
• 12:17
  this notion
• 12:18
  that,
• 12:19
  uh,
• 12:19
  you know,
• 12:20
  perhaps we can,
• 12:21
  we can be pragmatic with the Chinese government,
• 12:23
  you know,
• 12:24
  talk to them about their support to Iran and do that,
• 12:26
  and then still do business with the private sector and,
• 12:28
  and one doesn't affect the other.
• 12:31
  But
• 12:31
  going back to your earlier point,
• 12:32
  you're absolutely correct and you,
• 12:34
  you,
• 12:35
  you put it very succinctly.
• 12:36
  It's very complex,
• 12:38
  uh,
• 12:38
  dealing with China.
• 12:39
  Now,
• 12:40
  I want to jump back into that,
• 12:41
  um,
• 12:42
  Miyad,
• 12:42
  in just a second,
• 12:43
  but first,
• 12:44
  if you'll stay right where you are,
• 12:46
  we do have to take a quick break
• 12:48
  and then we'll be back with more from Miyad Malekki of the Defense for Democracies.
• 12:55
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• 12:55
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  Joining me once again
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  is senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies,
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  Miyad Mawlaki.
• 14:16
  Miyad,
• 14:16
  thank you very much for sticking with us.
• 14:19
  Um,
• 14:19
  we're talking all things sanctions in the Iranian regime.
• 14:22
  And,
• 14:23
  uh,
• 14:24
  talk to me about,
• 14:25
  without,
• 14:25
  I,
• 14:25
  I,
• 14:26
  without going too far into the weeds,
• 14:27
  I think it's probably a very technical subject,
• 14:29
  but talk to me about the difficulty
• 14:31
  of enforcing sanctions
• 14:34
  in today's world.
• 14:37
  Sure,
• 14:37
  that's again,
• 14:38
  another great question.
• 14:39
  I think here's,
• 14:39
  here's a challenge.
• 14:40
  When you get to
• 14:42
  When rubber hit the road and you're actually going after
• 14:46
  enforcement of secondary sanctions,
• 14:48
  and secondary sanctions means when you go and tell
• 14:52
  foreign countries,
• 14:54
  foreign partners,
• 14:55
  foreign governments,
• 14:56
  meaning
• 14:57
  non-Iranian,
• 14:57
  non-Russian,
• 14:58
  but
• 14:59
  enablers,
• 15:00
  facilitators,
• 15:01
  those who help our adversaries bypass sanctions.
• 15:04
  Those who have
• 15:06
  touch points with US businesses and US financial system,
• 15:09
  that's where the sanctions work.
• 15:11
  And when you go after those type of targets
• 15:14
  with tools like sanctions,
• 15:16
  there are a couple of things that you got to think about.
• 15:18
  One,
• 15:19
  what is,
• 15:20
  are you going to achieve the goal you want to get out of sanctioning that entity?
• 15:26
  Um,
• 15:26
  in a way that it would
• 15:28
  pressure,
• 15:28
  put pressure on your adversary,
• 15:30
  and how much of that pressure is going to be on the US business
• 15:34
  because remember every time you use sanctions you're giving away US business,
• 15:39
  right,
• 15:40
  in the interest for the benefit of our national security interest.
• 15:43
  So
• 15:44
  we,
• 15:44
  we discussed,
• 15:46
  we discussed the Chinese entities,
• 15:48
  right?
• 15:48
  So
• 15:49
  remember we have an
• 15:51
  extreme
• 15:51
  large interest in the Chinese market manufacturing
• 15:55
  um uh industry in China.
• 15:57
  So when we use these tools,
• 15:59
  how much of that is going to hurt
• 16:01
  US businesses and US interests versus how much of
• 16:04
  that is going to be pressure on our adversaries,
• 16:07
  right?
• 16:07
  So
• 16:08
  I think it's,
• 16:08
  it's appropriate to use sanctions to go after bad actors.
• 16:12
  Um,
• 16:13
  but we also,
• 16:14
  the difficulty here is to measure the effectiveness
• 16:18
  to see how much of that is going to really pressure our adversaries
• 16:21
  versus how much of that is going to really,
• 16:23
  uh,
• 16:24
  deprive US business interests,
• 16:26
  right?
• 16:26
  Um,
• 16:27
  so that's,
• 16:28
  um,
• 16:28
  that,
• 16:28
  that's kind of the complexity of,
• 16:30
  of using sanctions when it comes to going after very effective targets.
• 16:35
  And then I guess you have the,
• 16:37
  all the difficulties involved in the investigative process,
• 16:40
  right?
• 16:40
  Because it really is an investigative process
• 16:43
  to identify
• 16:44
  how
• 16:45
  a country is getting around sanctions,
• 16:48
  right?
• 16:48
  Because in part that's it,
• 16:49
  it all goes hand in hand,
• 16:50
  right?
• 16:51
  You lay out the sanctions,
• 16:52
  you explain the consequences and the secondary sanctions for countries that
• 16:55
  or groups or companies that decide to work with that sanctioned country,
• 16:59
  uh,
• 17:00
  but you've got to be able to gather the evidence that's involved.
• 17:04
  Right,
• 17:04
  and then sanctions evaders have become very smart
• 17:08
  in how they're evading sanctions,
• 17:10
  uh,
• 17:10
  whether it's counterfeiting documents,
• 17:13
  using
• 17:14
  series of front companies,
• 17:15
  for example,
• 17:17
  it does create a cost
• 17:19
  when sanctions evaders,
• 17:21
  when Iranians.
• 17:21
  Russians,
• 17:23
  instead of putting oil on a tanker,
• 17:25
  going from
• 17:26
  the oil terminal to the buyer,
• 17:29
  they have to do 4 or 5 rounds of ship to ship transfers.
• 17:32
  They have to counterfeit documents,
• 17:34
  they have to go through layers of intermediaries that are corrupt,
• 17:37
  that are charging commission.
• 17:38
  It's black market.
• 17:40
  So they lose a lot of profit
• 17:42
  and that's really a part of the goal of the sanctions,
• 17:44
  right?
• 17:45
  It makes those cargoes,
• 17:46
  those exports less profitable
• 17:49
  for adversaries,
• 17:50
  but also going after those intermediaries is very challenging
• 17:54
  because they're really good at hiding
• 17:56
  their identities.
• 17:57
  They're really good at
• 17:59
  evading our sanctions.
• 18:00
  So
• 18:01
  you're absolutely right.
• 18:02
  And also remember,
• 18:03
  Sanctions are legal tools.
• 18:05
  You have to establish some,
• 18:07
  uh,
• 18:07
  you need to meet some legal threshold
• 18:10
  that certain entity has in fact engaged in bypassing sanctions.
• 18:13
  You've got to have evidence,
• 18:15
  you know,
• 18:15
  we're,
• 18:15
  we're a country of justice,
• 18:17
  um,
• 18:18
  a very strong judiciary,
• 18:19
  like
• 18:20
  we've got to establish some evidence before you can sanction an entity
• 18:24
  and,
• 18:24
  and it takes time and in most cases.
• 18:27
  That activity should have happened already,
• 18:30
  meaning someone had done something wrong and then you go after them with sanctions.
• 18:34
  So sometimes
• 18:35
  the effectiveness comes after the conduct has already taken place,
• 18:39
  yet
• 18:40
  it,
• 18:40
  it cut them off from the,
• 18:41
  from the financial institutions and it has some serious effects.
• 18:45
  Yeah,
• 18:46
  no,
• 18:46
  and you,
• 18:46
  you,
• 18:47
  you raised a very good point which is that look,
• 18:48
  they've been,
• 18:49
  the Iranians certainly have been doing this for a
• 18:50
  long time in terms of understanding how to get around
• 18:54
  US sanctions,
• 18:55
  right?
• 18:55
  And they've become
• 18:57
  relatively sophisticated.
• 18:59
  Uh,
• 18:59
  the Russians,
• 19:00
  uh,
• 19:01
  likewise,
• 19:02
  uh,
• 19:02
  particularly since Putin's invasion
• 19:04
  in 2022,
• 19:05
  and the relationship between the Iranians and the
• 19:07
  Russians is such that they're sharing that knowledge,
• 19:10
  right?
• 19:11
  It's like one fraudster helping another,
• 19:13
  you know,
• 19:14
  and to commit.
• 19:16
  More fraud,
• 19:17
  and it is,
• 19:18
  it's from an investigative
• 19:20
  point of view,
• 19:20
  it's a very tough thing to do
• 19:22
  because they're constantly shifting and adjusting.
• 19:24
  We've talked on the PDB before about
• 19:26
  the sort of the Russian networks
• 19:28
  and how they
• 19:29
  evade.
• 19:30
  The sanctions and obviously the,
• 19:32
  the Iranians have been engaged in the same thing.
• 19:34
  Let me take just a little bit of a turn.
• 19:35
  Talk to me about your,
• 19:37
  your thoughts,
• 19:38
  um,
• 19:38
  how you view the blockade,
• 19:40
  the US blockade of,
• 19:41
  uh,
• 19:41
  Iranian ports.
• 19:43
  Talk to me about,
• 19:43
  you know,
• 19:44
  your perspective on that,
• 19:45
  how effective it's been,
• 19:46
  um,
• 19:47
  and,
• 19:48
  you know,
• 19:48
  whether
• 19:49
  that may be the one thing
• 19:51
  that,
• 19:52
  um,
• 19:53
  Has
• 19:54
  maybe gotten to the Iranian regime,
• 19:56
  maybe getting them to the point where they're thinking
• 19:58
  we probably do need to negotiate something.
• 20:02
  Absolutely,
• 20:03
  so I think blockade is something we've never had with the Iranian regime.
• 20:06
  We always had robust set of sanctions,
• 20:09
  some other foreign policy tools that we have
• 20:11
  deployed to degrade the Iranian regime's ability to,
• 20:14
  to generate revenue and,
• 20:16
  and procure weapons systems and
• 20:18
  uh and,
• 20:19
  and,
• 20:20
  and boost its nuclear program,
• 20:21
  but the blockade is very unique in a way
• 20:23
  that we've never had such a physical disruptive tool.
• 20:27
  Being deployed against his adversary.
• 20:30
  Now,
• 20:31
  um,
• 20:31
  a couple of things,
• 20:32
  so one,
• 20:34
  At the beginning of the,
• 20:35
  the,
• 20:35
  um,
• 20:36
  when,
• 20:36
  when there were talks about the naval blockade,
• 20:38
  you know,
• 20:39
  um,
• 20:39
  my thoughts were the blockade is going to
• 20:42
  be in somewhere in the Persian Gulf,
• 20:44
  um,
• 20:45
  and it's going to really block off Iran's oil terminals.
• 20:48
  What happened,
• 20:49
  um,
• 20:49
  the blockade line
• 20:51
  was
• 20:51
  placed outside the Strait of Hormuz,
• 20:54
  uh,
• 20:54
  which makes sense,
• 20:55
  makes sense,
• 20:56
  um.
• 20:57
  But,
• 20:57
  but it gave Iranians some time
• 20:59
  to,
• 21:00
  to use their assets in the Persian Gulf freely
• 21:03
  to not have to drop the oil extraction
• 21:06
  because the naval blockade goes in place,
• 21:08
  it doesn't allow Iranians to send oil out of the Strait of Hormuz,
• 21:12
  and it wouldn't allow them to bring imports
• 21:15
  through the Strait of Hormuz,
• 21:17
  and that's about $435 million a day in trade
• 21:20
  that is gone.
• 21:21
  Um,
• 21:22
  with oil extraction,
• 21:23
  it took some time,
• 21:25
  but now they have dropped the oil extraction
• 21:28
  to
• 21:28
  probably somewhere between 1.2,
• 21:30
  1.3 million barrels a day,
• 21:32
  and that is the amount they can refine domestically.
• 21:35
  Otherwise they have probably shut in their wells
• 21:38
  and the extraction level has been dropped to a point that if they want to
• 21:41
  take it back up
• 21:42
  to 4 million barrels a day.
• 21:44
  Um,
• 21:45
  it's gonna probably take months if,
• 21:46
  if not years.
• 21:47
  So that has caused a serious damage in the long term.
• 21:51
  But in the day to day
• 21:53
  economic activities,
• 21:55
  they're,
• 21:55
  they're losing $435 million in trade,
• 21:58
  and it has accelerated the effect of sanctions.
• 22:01
  Now,
• 22:02
  and
• 22:03
  the reason that I'm saying it's gonna keep
• 22:04
  getting worse for them every day is because,
• 22:07
  um,
• 22:07
  you know,
• 22:07
  during the
• 22:08
  last year or two years of the Biden administration,
• 22:12
  And then when the blockade,
• 22:14
  before the blockade was
• 22:15
  imposed and when there was a
• 22:17
  pause in the blockade,
• 22:18
  Iranians managed to get a lot of oil out of the Shred of Hormoz,
• 22:21
  so they had around 130 million,
• 22:23
  160 million
• 22:25
  barrels of oil
• 22:26
  sitting in international waters outside the blockade
• 22:29
  that has now been dropped.
• 22:32
  To somewhere close to 20 to 25 million barrels,
• 22:35
  and that's because Chinese keeps buying some of that oil.
• 22:38
  Now the Chinese are only buying close to like 300,000 to 400,000
• 22:42
  barrels a day,
• 22:43
  so they're
• 22:44
  buying less and the only
• 22:46
  buyers in China are the already sanctioned
• 22:48
  refineries that are buying Iranian oil.
• 22:51
  We talk about,
• 22:52
  we,
• 22:52
  we,
• 22:53
  we talk about this a lot.
• 22:54
  Uh,
• 22:54
  we,
• 22:54
  we talk about how much is moving through the strait,
• 22:57
  how much has gotten through,
• 22:58
  uh,
• 22:59
  what the Chinese are buying,
• 23:00
  what they're not able to do,
• 23:01
  what the Russians are.
• 23:02
  How accurate
• 23:03
  from your perspective and your experience,
• 23:06
  how accurate,
• 23:06
  how credible are these numbers that we're throwing out there when we talk about,
• 23:10
  uh,
• 23:10
  levels of production and,
• 23:12
  you know,
• 23:13
  what's getting moved.
• 23:15
  So the level of production are um
• 23:19
  pretty accurate.
• 23:20
  The reason is for that is because we,
• 23:22
  we,
• 23:22
  we see the contracts,
• 23:23
  you know,
• 23:23
  like how much you're actually
• 23:25
  promising to buyers
• 23:27
  and,
• 23:27
  and the satellite images or companies are monitoring the movement
• 23:31
  of tankers out of the solar from months but also
• 23:33
  uh the tankers are getting filled.
• 23:35
  Um,
• 23:36
  filled up
• 23:36
  at Iran's Khark Island,
• 23:38
  the main oil terminal.
• 23:39
  So those numbers are accurate.
• 23:41
  The,
• 23:41
  the,
• 23:41
  the numbers when it comes to export import,
• 23:43
  those numbers are,
• 23:44
  we rely on Central Bank of Iran own own numbers,
• 23:48
  but these are not numbers that they would mess around with.
• 23:50
  These are numbers that,
• 23:51
  that we can probably take us closer to the reality.
• 23:54
  But at the end of the day,
• 23:55
  it's The dictatorship
• 23:56
  they control the information,
• 23:58
  uh,
• 23:58
  they own the information.
• 24:00
  We just work with what we can get,
• 24:01
  um,
• 24:02
  out of,
• 24:03
  out of the central bank,
• 24:04
  uh,
• 24:05
  and also we're talking,
• 24:06
  we're talking about China as the,
• 24:08
  the key partner and,
• 24:09
  and there of course there's a significant lack of transparency there
• 24:13
  in terms of,
• 24:14
  of what they're doing,
• 24:15
  um.
• 24:17
  Last question,
• 24:18
  are you,
• 24:21
  where I,
• 24:21
  I don't wanna
• 24:23
  have you,
• 24:23
  well,
• 24:23
  of course I do wanna have you speculate.
• 24:25
  Do you,
• 24:26
  do you,
• 24:27
  um,
• 24:28
  are you hopeful
• 24:29
  about
• 24:30
  where this is going?
• 24:31
  Uh,
• 24:32
  do you think that
• 24:34
  Uh,
• 24:34
  there is the potential for a,
• 24:37
  uh,
• 24:37
  whatever you wanna call it,
• 24:38
  regime change because of unrest in,
• 24:41
  in the country.
• 24:42
  Do you think we're gonna end up with the same regime
• 24:44
  and just concessions given in order to get this straight open,
• 24:47
  so,
• 24:48
  you know,
• 24:48
  the gas prices drop and people forget about it before the US elections.
• 24:52
  Where are you on,
• 24:53
  on all of this from your own personal perspective?
• 24:57
  Sure,
• 24:57
  I mean that's a,
• 24:58
  a million-dollar question,
• 24:59
  but here's,
• 24:59
  here's the way I'm looking at it.
• 25:01
  If you look at the economic
• 25:02
  um situation in Iran,
• 25:05
  um,
• 25:06
  The current situation the Iranian regime is in right now,
• 25:09
  you have a naval blockade.
• 25:11
  You don't have an ongoing conflict or war,
• 25:13
  meaning the economy is up and running,
• 25:15
  so you have a market demand that is going up.
• 25:18
  The inflation rate is going up
• 25:20
  significantly,
• 25:21
  80%,
• 25:21
  90% inflation rate,
• 25:23
  food inflation rate of 300%.
• 25:25
  No oil being exported,
• 25:27
  no
• 25:28
  imports are coming through.
• 25:30
  Um,
• 25:30
  and,
• 25:31
  and,
• 25:31
  and,
• 25:31
  and the,
• 25:32
  um,
• 25:32
  domestic manufacturing has,
• 25:34
  has,
• 25:35
  um,
• 25:35
  been
• 25:36
  targeted.
• 25:37
  During the war and it's been on the decline.
• 25:40
  So if you look at those economic
• 25:42
  numbers,
• 25:42
  it's
• 25:43
  it's a collapsed economy.
• 25:45
  It's an economy that
• 25:47
  is like a ticking bomb.
• 25:48
  So
• 25:49
  any minute something could trigger an uprising in Iran,
• 25:53
  but look at
• 25:55
  very quickly,
• 25:56
  Iran had this regime had to deal with the eight year war
• 25:59
  in the 80s,
• 26:00
  Iran-Iraq war.
• 26:01
  They've learned how to manage the economy that is dealing with a war on its Under
• 26:06
  a lot of pressure.
• 26:07
  These guys are also revolutionaries.
• 26:09
  They know how to avoid or deter a revolution.
• 26:11
  They came out of the revolution.
• 26:13
  They're thugs.
• 26:14
  They're terrorist militias.
• 26:15
  That's these guys are good at avoiding a revolution.
• 26:18
  So it's going to be very challenging
• 26:20
  for the Iranians to topple this regime.
• 26:23
  But at the same time,
• 26:25
  every year,
• 26:26
  every 2 years we have uprisings in Iran
• 26:28
  that that come very close
• 26:31
  to starting a political transition there.
• 26:34
  So.
• 26:35
  Putting all of that together and the gap
• 26:37
  that exists between the regime and its people,
• 26:39
  it's hard to believe that this regime is going to be in place for much longer,
• 26:43
  but it's probably going to take some time
• 26:45
  before the Iranians can
• 26:47
  be united in a way to actually take over
• 26:51
  the government.
• 26:52
  I think the pressure by the US government right now today is working very well.
• 26:56
  I think it's really has crippled the government's ability to
• 26:59
  collect taxes that is need,
• 27:01
  revenue from oil that it needs.
• 27:03
  It's
• 27:03
  printing a lot of real,
• 27:05
  uh,
• 27:05
  Iranian currency
• 27:07
  so it can continue to pay salaries,
• 27:09
  so it doesn't have to cut salaries,
• 27:11
  so it doesn't have to trigger uprising,
• 27:14
  but it can print gasoline.
• 27:15
  It's gonna run out of gasoline very soon.
• 27:18
  That might be a triggering factor for significant pressure domestically.
• 27:23
  And,
• 27:23
  and also the reality is,
• 27:24
  is almost worthless at this point,
• 27:26
  but,
• 27:27
  uh,
• 27:27
  and,
• 27:28
  and if they get to the point where they can't pay the security
• 27:31
  personnel,
• 27:32
  uh,
• 27:32
  and the militia,
• 27:33
  and the besieged militia and,
• 27:35
  and IRGC,
• 27:36
  uh,
• 27:37
  low-level,
• 27:37
  mid-level,
• 27:38
  you know,
• 27:38
  that's when you could start to see,
• 27:40
  you know,
• 27:41
  some
• 27:42
  opportunity.
• 27:42
  But you're right,
• 27:43
  it is a,
• 27:43
  it's an enormously heavy lift to ask people who don't have the guns.
• 27:48
  To go back out on the streets against a
• 27:50
  very repressive regime that just finished slaughtering thousands of citizens
• 27:55
  earlier in the year.
• 27:56
  Uh,
• 27:57
  so,
• 27:57
  I,
• 27:57
  I do worry,
• 27:58
  it's a little bit like the,
• 27:59
  the Michigan candidate,
• 28:01
  uh,
• 28:01
  for,
• 28:02
  uh,
• 28:02
  Senate,
• 28:02
  uh,
• 28:03
  Syed,
• 28:04
  um,
• 28:04
  was asked about.
• 28:06
  You know,
• 28:07
  do you,
• 28:08
  do you denounce the IRGC or do you,
• 28:10
  you know,
• 28:11
  how do you,
• 28:12
  you know,
• 28:12
  how do you respond to,
• 28:13
  you know,
• 28:14
  concerns about what the Iranian people are going through?
• 28:16
  And,
• 28:16
  and his point was,
• 28:17
  well,
• 28:17
  I support democracies everywhere.
• 28:19
  I don't think the US had any right to get involved.
• 28:22
  You know,
• 28:22
  what happens to the Iranian people should be left to the Iranian people.
• 28:25
  I'm thinking,
• 28:25
  well,
• 28:26
  yeah,
• 28:26
  that's a,
• 28:26
  that's a great,
• 28:27
  you know,
• 28:28
  say nothing statement
• 28:29
  when you're talking about a people
• 28:31
  that have been under the,
• 28:32
  the,
• 28:33
  the,
• 28:33
  you know,
• 28:33
  the regime there,
• 28:35
  uh,
• 28:35
  and have seen what they're willing to do to,
• 28:37
  to people when they come out in the streets and protest.
• 28:40
  Uh,
• 28:41
  didn't mean to disappear down that rabbit hole,
• 28:42
  me.
• 28:43
  I do wanna say thank you very,
• 28:45
  very much for taking time.
• 28:46
  I hope you'll come back again because I got,
• 28:48
  I got 7 more pages of questions I was gonna throw your way,
• 28:51
  but we are out of time.
• 28:54
  Would love to be back.
• 28:55
  Great to be with you.
• 28:56
  Excellent.
• 28:57
  Thank you very much,
• 28:57
  sir.
• 28:57
  I really appreciate it.
• 28:58
  I look forward to the next time.
• 28:59
  Mia Maliki of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
• 29:03
  Well,
• 29:03
  all right,
• 29:03
  coming up next,
• 29:04
  while Iran
• 29:05
  is under growing economic pressure from abroad,
• 29:08
  the bigger question,
• 29:09
  as we just alluded to,
• 29:10
  maybe what happens inside the country
• 29:13
  as inflation,
• 29:14
  unemployment,
• 29:15
  and public frustration
• 29:16
  continue to build.
• 29:17
  We'll be joined by Alireza Jaffazadeh.
• 29:20
  He's with the National Council of Resistance of Iran
• 29:23
  for more on that.
• 29:24
  So please
• 29:25
  stick around.
• 29:28
  Hey,
• 29:28
  Mike Baker here.
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• 30:31
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 30:34
  As sanctions continue to squeeze Iran from the outside,
• 30:37
  the pressure inside the country is building.
• 30:39
  Iranian officials
• 30:40
  have acknowledged serious economic problems.
• 30:43
  Well,
• 30:43
  how gracious of them,
• 30:44
  including currency instability,
• 30:46
  inflation,
• 30:47
  and unemployment.
• 30:49
  The government has also moved to raise fuel prices for the heavier users.
• 30:53
  And that's a politically sensitive step in a
• 30:55
  country where previous gas increases have
• 30:58
  helped trigger unrest.
• 30:59
  For more on this,
• 31:01
  I want to turn to a great friend of the show,
• 31:03
  Alireza Jeffrizadeh,
• 31:04
  deputy director of the Washington Office
• 31:06
  of the National Council of Resistance of Iran.
• 31:09
  Alireza,
• 31:10
  great to see you again.
• 31:12
  Always a pleasure,
• 31:12
  Mark.
• 31:13
  Great to be on your show.
• 31:15
  Uh,
• 31:15
  thank you.
• 31:16
  Thank you very much.
• 31:16
  You've been busy.
• 31:17
  I understand you've been traveling.
• 31:20
  Yes,
• 31:20
  I was actually,
• 31:21
  I just came back from New York
• 31:24
  and we had a very eventful two day
• 31:29
  major
• 31:31
  rally across from the United Nations.
• 31:34
  The first rally was on the first day of the General Assembly
• 31:39
  just to coincide with the beginning of it where all the world leaders were there.
• 31:44
  The message was very clear,
• 31:46
  telling the world leaders
• 31:48
  that Iran
• 31:50
  is not recognized by its regime
• 31:53
  rather by its people,
• 31:55
  that Poshkian and the regime do not represent
• 31:59
  the people of Iran.
• 32:00
  They represent a repressive regime
• 32:03
  that kills its own people,
• 32:05
  massacres,
• 32:06
  supports terrorism in the region,
• 32:08
  spends all the money and resources of the country.
• 32:11
  On developing nuclear weapons and missile program
• 32:15
  that undermines not only the interests of the people
• 32:18
  of Iran but the rest of the world,
• 32:20
  and that
• 32:22
  it shouldn't be like that.
• 32:23
  There is an alternative,
• 32:25
  and that alternative is actually the people of Iran and the organized resistance
• 32:30
  fighting for freedom
• 32:32
  for 4 decades,
• 32:33
  over 4 decades.
• 32:35
  And it has a very clear leadership.
• 32:37
  Mrs.
• 32:37
  Rajavi introduced a 10 point platform
• 32:40
  for the future of Iran that corroborates with all the international norms,
• 32:45
  a clear roadmap
• 32:47
  for change in Iran.
• 32:49
  There's a
• 32:49
  powerful network inside Iran.
• 32:51
  All the world needs to do
• 32:53
  is to look at Iran through the prism of its people,
• 32:56
  not the regime.
• 32:58
  Yeah,
• 32:59
  yeah,
• 32:59
  it's easier said than done since people really don't get much of a voice.
• 33:03
  Um,
• 33:04
  now,
• 33:04
  it is,
• 33:05
  it is remarkable when you think about we're in this direct conflict with Iran
• 33:09
  and
• 33:10
  here
• 33:11
  in UN
• 33:12
  General Assembly Week,
• 33:13
  which by the way,
• 33:14
  is the worst time to be in New York,
• 33:16
  um,
• 33:17
  is,
• 33:19
  is Mossud Bazeskian,
• 33:20
  right,
• 33:20
  is the
• 33:21
  president of this country that we're in a direct conflict with.
• 33:25
  And here he comes,
• 33:27
  allowed to address
• 33:28
  the uh
• 33:29
  the assembly,
• 33:30
  and everyone dutifully,
• 33:32
  you know,
• 33:32
  sits and listens.
• 33:33
  Uh,
• 33:34
  they also have a framed picture of Qasem Soleimani,
• 33:37
  um,
• 33:38
  on their uh desk there in the General Assembly and talk
• 33:41
  about someone who had a lot of blood on his hands.
• 33:44
  Um,
• 33:44
  so it's,
• 33:45
  it is
• 33:46
  a,
• 33:46
  a very bizarre dynamic.
• 33:51
  Absolutely it's really bizarre because you know United Nations as the name says
• 33:57
  it has to be about the nations,
• 34:00
  not just regimes.
• 34:01
  It's not about united regimes or united governments
• 34:05
  and then yet you have
• 34:07
  the consistently over the past few decades
• 34:10
  you have the leaders of the Iranian regime
• 34:13
  coming to the UN while they have presided over
• 34:16
  massacre and killings and threatening the rest of the world.
• 34:20
  And then they get at the podium they start,
• 34:23
  you know,
• 34:23
  giving lessons
• 34:25
  preaching to the rest of the world about human rights,
• 34:27
  about,
• 34:28
  you know,
• 34:29
  peace and all of that and that's why,
• 34:32
  you know,
• 34:33
  we felt it very important.
• 34:36
  To once again gather in front of the UN as Pezekian was speaking,
• 34:40
  you know,
• 34:41
  there were thousands of Iranian resistance supporters
• 34:46
  right across the UN chanting,
• 34:49
  you know,
• 34:49
  Down with terrorist regime
• 34:51
  of ruling Iran.
• 34:54
  And
• 34:55
  calling change change change regime change
• 34:58
  in Iran by the people of Iran.
• 35:00
  So
• 35:00
  they were
• 35:01
  do any of those images,
• 35:02
  Ali Reza,
• 35:02
  do any of those images get into Iran?
• 35:05
  Do
• 35:05
  the
• 35:06
  people of Iran,
• 35:07
  they have the opportunity to see what's happening
• 35:09
  as an example?
• 35:10
  I know they can't turn on the TV and watch it,
• 35:12
  but still.
• 35:13
  Right,
• 35:13
  yes,
• 35:14
  you know
• 35:15
  what we did
• 35:16
  on both days
• 35:18
  we had the live feed into Iran
• 35:21
  on
• 35:21
  there's a satellite TV.
• 35:23
  It's called Iranian TV
• 35:25
  and they beam into Iran
• 35:27
  extensively and people can watch it,
• 35:30
  of course you know it's banned,
• 35:31
  but a lot of people.
• 35:34
  Watch banned programs,
• 35:35
  but also it was available live on social media.
• 35:39
  A lot of media covered it like Fox had several reports about this.
• 35:43
  CBS News had it,
• 35:45
  and you know some of those gets into Iran
• 35:48
  and so people find ways of getting that message
• 35:52
  that,
• 35:53
  you know,
• 35:53
  position
• 35:54
  is not what he says,
• 35:56
  that he was rejected.
• 35:57
  By the people that people are talking about the alternative about the future,
• 36:02
  not about the current theocracy or the past dictatorship of the Shah,
• 36:07
  and that message was very delivered very,
• 36:10
  very clearly,
• 36:11
  but it's not enough because you know so long as the mullahs are in power
• 36:15
  they would try to use every means available to them.
• 36:18
  That's why our effort
• 36:20
  has to be doubled and everything
• 36:22
  you know we do on social media and other places
• 36:25
  we need to spread the word.
• 36:27
  Yeah,
• 36:28
  I wanna talk to you about the,
• 36:29
  the economic
• 36:30
  conditions inside the country,
• 36:31
  but,
• 36:32
  uh,
• 36:32
  you know,
• 36:32
  I just,
• 36:33
  as we wrap up the kind of look at what happened to the UN,
• 36:36
  I,
• 36:37
  uh,
• 36:38
  my,
• 36:38
  my personal feeling is that the UN is a fairly feckless organization.
• 36:42
  It takes up a lot of space and
• 36:44
  rarely actually at the end of the day accomplishes.
• 36:47
  Uh,
• 36:47
  a lot of meaningful activity.
• 36:49
  You do need people talking,
• 36:50
  you need diplomatic channels,
• 36:51
  all of that.
• 36:52
  I get it.
• 36:53
  But the UN as an organization has always
• 36:55
  just struck me as this enormously immovable,
• 36:57
  feckless organization.
• 36:59
  It would have a little more credibility,
• 37:00
  I think,
• 37:01
  if,
• 37:02
  uh,
• 37:02
  all those same people who self-righteously stormed out when Netanyahu was
• 37:06
  about to speak would have done the same thing with possession,
• 37:09
  you know,
• 37:09
  in protest of,
• 37:10
  of the regime slaughter of thousands and thousands
• 37:13
  of their own citizens earlier in the year.
• 37:16
  Well,
• 37:17
  interestingly,
• 37:18
  Mark,
• 37:18
  you know,
• 37:18
  the
• 37:20
  UN has different organizations,
• 37:22
  bodies.
• 37:22
  They have fact finding missions,
• 37:25
  some of their own
• 37:27
  reports as recent as just this past month,
• 37:32
  plus so many other reports came out by the United Nations saying that
• 37:37
  The Iran regime was involved in the massacre
• 37:40
  of
• 37:41
  thousands upon thousands of political prisoners in 1988.
• 37:46
  Not only that,
• 37:47
  they said it amounted to crimes against humanity and even genocide.
• 37:51
  They also talked about the massacre this year in 2026 in January.
• 37:58
  All of that.
• 37:59
  Yet you know when it comes to those reports that are there,
• 38:02
  but when it comes to the whole
• 38:04
  Organization or the member states,
• 38:07
  they just go their own way.
• 38:08
  That's why I think
• 38:10
  it's so important to get the voices out,
• 38:12
  to have the voices of the people
• 38:15
  to be heard,
• 38:15
  because if you just leave it
• 38:17
  to those countries or the institutions,
• 38:20
  it will not go anywhere.
• 38:22
  And that's why I think those two days
• 38:25
  were extremely important
• 38:27
  to get the message out and we got very good coverage,
• 38:30
  but it's never enough.
• 38:33
  Did you get any sense that there was uh
• 38:36
  Any
• 38:38
  Um
• 38:39
  Feedback?
• 38:40
  Have you heard any feedback?
• 38:41
  Has it,
• 38:42
  I don't necessarily mean direct feedback,
• 38:43
  but
• 38:44
  have there been any statements from the Iranian regime,
• 38:47
  uh,
• 38:48
  over,
• 38:48
  you know,
• 38:48
  the,
• 38:49
  the two days,
• 38:50
  uh,
• 38:50
  that you were there?
• 38:52
  Well,
• 38:52
  you know,
• 38:53
  Pozhkin himself addressed the UN saying that
• 38:57
  Iran is being attacked by terrorists,
• 38:59
  and
• 39:00
  of course you know they're referring to
• 39:03
  those who are fighting the Iranian regime over the years
• 39:07
  and every time they attack it,
• 39:09
  the Iranian media attacked us saying that,
• 39:11
  you know,
• 39:12
  the terrorists and
• 39:15
  Agents of other countries
• 39:18
  were demonstrating across from the UN.
• 39:19
  These are not agents of other countries or terrorists.
• 39:22
  I remember the very first rally that I participated across from the UN.
• 39:27
  I was much younger at the time.
• 39:28
  That was 46 years ago in 1981
• 39:32
  that we had the first rally in front of the UN
• 39:36
  when the killings had
• 39:37
  started,
• 39:38
  and every single year
• 39:40
  all throughout this period,
• 39:41
  with the exception of one year because of COVID.
• 39:44
  The people gathered in front of the UN,
• 39:47
  you know,
• 39:47
  our movement
• 39:48
  was involved
• 39:50
  in galvanizing everybody,
• 39:52
  just keeping the voice,
• 39:54
  you know,
• 39:54
  repeating about the killings in Iran,
• 39:57
  but also the desire of the people
• 39:59
  for change.
• 40:00
  When you have that level of continuity.
• 40:02
  Over different administrations,
• 40:04
  different circumstances,
• 40:06
  continuing,
• 40:08
  you know,
• 40:08
  protesting and calling for change and democracy,
• 40:12
  this is the true voice of the people of Iran,
• 40:15
  not those ruthless mullahs,
• 40:17
  and the real terrorists are those who are
• 40:20
  ruling the country.
• 40:23
  Yeah,
• 40:23
  no,
• 40:23
  it is,
• 40:24
  it is the,
• 40:24
  the,
• 40:25
  the lack of,
• 40:26
  of self-awareness and of irony of,
• 40:27
  of,
• 40:28
  of the
• 40:28
  Iranian regime complaining and
• 40:30
  calling,
• 40:31
  calling the resistance terrorists
• 40:33
  is,
• 40:33
  is really,
• 40:34
  uh,
• 40:34
  you know,
• 40:35
  it's just again another indication of they,
• 40:37
  they are living in an alternative world.
• 40:39
  Um,
• 40:40
  Alireza,
• 40:41
  I wanna talk,
• 40:42
  I wanna pivot over to the economy and
• 40:44
  what it's doing internally inside the country and,
• 40:46
  and its impact on the population,
• 40:48
  but,
• 40:48
  but first,
• 40:50
  we do have to take a quick break.
• 40:52
  So,
• 40:52
  stick around and we'll be back with more from Alireza Jaffazadeh and the
• 40:57
  National Council of Resistance of Iran.
• 40:59
  Stick with us.
• 41:01
  Welcome back to the PDB Situation Report.
• 41:04
  Joining us once again is Alireza,
• 41:05
  Jefferzadeh.
• 41:06
  He's the deputy director of the National Council
• 41:08
  of Resistance of Iran.
• 41:11
  Um,
• 41:11
  Alireza,
• 41:12
  let's,
• 41:13
  let's talk about the economic conditions inside Iran.
• 41:16
  We've touched on it before in the past,
• 41:18
  but now,
• 41:20
  Since we last talked,
• 41:21
  obviously the blockade of Iranian ports
• 41:24
  has been in place for quite some time.
• 41:27
  We're getting all sorts of reports on,
• 41:30
  you know,
• 41:30
  the impact it's having.
• 41:32
  The
• 41:32
  Uh,
• 41:33
  the inflation rate,
• 41:34
  food prices increasing,
• 41:36
  uh,
• 41:36
  you know,
• 41:37
  shortages of fuel.
• 41:39
  But
• 41:39
  sometimes you do wonder whether
• 41:41
  the numbers we're hearing,
• 41:42
  the things we're hearing
• 41:44
  out in the West,
• 41:45
  just how accurate they are.
• 41:47
  So give us your impressions of,
• 41:49
  of what's happening inside the country from an economic perspective and how it's,
• 41:53
  how it's really impacting the people.
• 41:57
  Well,
• 41:58
  you know,
• 41:58
  economy has been one of the most
• 42:00
  important elements that has really galvanized the protests
• 42:05
  in Iran since at least the past decade.
• 42:09
  And it's astonishing that a country
• 42:12
  so rich,
• 42:14
  so powerful,
• 42:15
  so resourceful
• 42:16
  like Iran,
• 42:17
  you have 80% of the Iranian population
• 42:21
  living
• 42:21
  below the poverty line.
• 42:23
  It's not that we don't have money and resources,
• 42:25
  we have
• 42:25
  the second largest oil and gas reserves combined in the world.
• 42:29
  Any resource you can think of,
• 42:31
  we have it in Iran,
• 42:32
  but because of the corruption,
• 42:34
  because of the mismanagement.
• 42:37
  Because the money is the priority of the regime
• 42:40
  is not its own people.
• 42:42
  The priority is the IRGC and
• 42:45
  sponsoring their nuclear program,
• 42:47
  their missile program.
• 42:49
  The regime has over 38 missile cities they built.
• 42:53
  I mean,
• 42:54
  think about it,
• 42:55
  cities under underground
• 42:57
  tunnels,
• 42:58
  what they call missile cities.
• 43:01
  You know how much that costs that drains the entire.
• 43:04
  Really wealth of a nation.
• 43:06
  The whole nuclear weapons program of Iran has called
• 43:09
  some $2 trillion
• 43:12
  and everything else that they're,
• 43:14
  I mean,
• 43:15
  can I interrupt you there $2 trillion over the years for their nuclear program.
• 43:20
  Yes,
• 43:21
  and you know,
• 43:22
  the
• 43:23
  just think about that number,
• 43:25
  the whole Iran-Iraq war that lasted for eight years
• 43:28
  that we had so many cities destroyed and all of that.
• 43:32
  The official estimate was that it cost Iran
• 43:36
  $1 trillion
• 43:38
  and then this whole nuclear program has cost the
• 43:42
  nation $2
• 43:45
  trillion so
• 43:46
  that's a very,
• 43:47
  very
• 43:48
  this is more than all the
• 43:50
  oil revenue that Iran has generated since the mullahs came to power.
• 43:55
  I added all of the numbers based on
• 43:58
  OPEC and all of that.
• 44:00
  The value of the oil revenue all of the time was about $1.5 trillion.
• 44:06
  So that's why the country is going squeezed.
• 44:11
  That's why the people feel
• 44:13
  like,
• 44:13
  you know,
• 44:14
  they're under tremendous pressure.
• 44:16
  And you know,
• 44:17
  so it's not just about the sanctions or anything like that.
• 44:20
  Even before the sanctions
• 44:22
  or when there were sanctions relief,
• 44:24
  the people
• 44:26
  condition didn't improve.
• 44:28
  So that's why I think
• 44:30
  and that has become the foundation.
• 44:33
  For the protests in Iran
• 44:36
  and things are getting worse.
• 44:38
  I'll give you one example.
• 44:39
  One of the indications is the value of the
• 44:41
  Iranian currency.
• 44:43
  You know,
• 44:43
  the Iranian currency is riyal,
• 44:45
  and 10 riyal is the equivalent of 1 to 1.
• 44:48
  And I remember when the mullahs came to power at the time,
• 44:52
  you could
• 44:53
  buy,
• 44:54
  you know,
• 44:55
  it
• 44:55
  was,
• 44:56
  you would only need 7 to 1
• 44:58
  to buy $1.
• 45:00
  Now it's over 200,000
• 45:03
  for $1.
• 45:05
  I mean $200,000 actually went as high as $230,000.
• 45:10
  So that's really,
• 45:11
  that's really,
• 45:12
  that's really
• 45:14
  over $2 million
• 45:15
  real.
• 45:17
  Right,
• 45:18
  yes,
• 45:19
  uh,
• 45:20
  and over 2.2 million dial,
• 45:22
  so,
• 45:22
  uh,
• 45:23
  that's a clear indication how bad the situation is now.
• 45:27
  The toll is on the population,
• 45:29
  and that's why you had all these protests,
• 45:31
  uh,
• 45:31
  shaping up the foundation of that.
• 45:34
  was always
• 45:35
  economic.
• 45:36
  Adding to it was the political freedoms,
• 45:39
  and that's why we are facing a very explosive society
• 45:44
  right now.
• 45:44
  The regime is so
• 45:47
  paranoid about the prospect
• 45:50
  of the revival of the uprisings.
• 45:53
  That explains why they have been stepping up execution
• 45:57
  of political prisoners.
• 45:58
  In Iran,
• 45:59
  they started in March
• 46:01
  executing 9
• 46:03
  political prisoners belonging to the MEK,
• 46:05
  the main opposition that exposed the nuclear sites and
• 46:08
  acts as an engine for change in Iran,
• 46:10
  but they also expanded it to the rest of the
• 46:13
  young people who were pursuing
• 46:15
  the same strategy as the MEK.
• 46:17
  The MEK's strategy is to confront the Revolutionary Guards,
• 46:21
  to push back against them,
• 46:22
  to fight them.
• 46:23
  In order to win,
• 46:27
  and the younger generations are picking up that strategy
• 46:30
  as so many others were executed in the past few weeks,
• 46:33
  and these were young people
• 46:35
  who were either confronting the revolutionary guards or trying to disarm
• 46:39
  the revolutionary guards.
• 46:40
  There are over 100
• 46:42
  political prisoners who are on death row right now.
• 46:45
  That's a clear indication of the vulnerability of
• 46:47
  the regime and how paranoid they are.
• 46:51
  Well,
• 46:51
  yes,
• 46:52
  um,
• 46:53
  we've,
• 46:53
  uh,
• 46:53
  we've talked about,
• 46:54
  I'm glad you raised that,
• 46:55
  that whole issue.
• 46:55
  We've talked about on the PDB in the past is,
• 46:58
  you know,
• 46:58
  while everybody's focused on the Strait of Hormuz and,
• 47:01
  you know,
• 47:02
  what,
• 47:02
  what the gas price is doing,
• 47:04
  um,
• 47:05
  under that cover,
• 47:06
  the regime has accelerated.
• 47:08
  Uh,
• 47:08
  the arrests,
• 47:09
  the detentions,
• 47:11
  the executions,
• 47:12
  um,
• 47:13
  really of anyone they,
• 47:14
  they consider a threat.
• 47:15
  I mean,
• 47:15
  you can kind of throw out a net that broad and say it's really anyone that they,
• 47:19
  they view as a threat.
• 47:21
  Um,
• 47:22
  the
• 47:23
  The prices,
• 47:24
  talk to me,
• 47:25
  what is the,
• 47:26
  let me ask you this,
• 47:26
  what is the um average monthly wage for an Iranian?
• 47:32
  Well,
• 47:32
  it fluctuates.
• 47:33
  I don't know the exact numbers right now.
• 47:36
  I can give you the official numbers and then there are others,
• 47:39
  but you know,
• 47:41
  whatever it is,
• 47:42
  it's way below the actual,
• 47:46
  you know,
• 47:47
  the cost of living.
• 47:49
  Sometimes families
• 47:50
  run out of the money,
• 47:53
  even the second.
• 47:54
  Week of the month
• 47:56
  and whatever the salaries are,
• 47:58
  especially for workers,
• 48:00
  they're not being paid for it,
• 48:02
  you know,
• 48:03
  for instance,
• 48:03
  some
• 48:04
  some companies
• 48:06
  they are like
• 48:07
  6 months,
• 48:07
  8 months,
• 48:08
  10 months behind.
• 48:10
  They haven't paid their workers for 10 months
• 48:12
  and when you are like paycheck to paycheck
• 48:15
  and you don't even survive with a paycheck.
• 48:17
  Imagine how
• 48:19
  vulnerable the population will be,
• 48:22
  you know,
• 48:22
  when this economic situation is really
• 48:27
  deteriorating,
• 48:28
  impacting the whole population,
• 48:30
  and you know,
• 48:31
  for instance,
• 48:32
  one of the companies,
• 48:33
  I'll give you one example.
• 48:35
  That was making steel mills.
• 48:39
  It was a steel mill company making steel rods,
• 48:41
  and it went off the production.
• 48:45
  It's been for several months.
• 48:47
  It had over 1000 workers,
• 48:49
  so they're not being paid.
• 48:51
  So what do the workers do?
• 48:53
  They come to the street and protest.
• 48:54
  You see a lot of protests are now shaping up
• 48:57
  by people who were laid off or lost their job,
• 49:00
  who haven't been paid,
• 49:01
  retirees who are not being paid.
• 49:04
  There's a lot of sectors of the population
• 49:08
  that now,
• 49:09
  even in the middle of an uncertain war situation,
• 49:13
  they're protesting.
• 49:15
  But now when you say protesting,
• 49:16
  are they grumbling,
• 49:18
  meaning they're sitting and they're,
• 49:19
  they're complaining or they're complaining to maybe
• 49:21
  relatives they have outside of the country,
• 49:23
  but they're not taking to the street,
• 49:24
  or do you mean they're actually taking to the streets?
• 49:27
  They are,
• 49:27
  they're taking to the streets,
• 49:29
  but their,
• 49:29
  their demands are,
• 49:30
  you know,
• 49:30
  they're peacefully coming to the streets
• 49:32
  with their banners,
• 49:33
  with their posters saying that,
• 49:35
  you know,
• 49:35
  we need our wages to be paid,
• 49:37
  um,
• 49:37
  you know,
• 49:38
  our,
• 49:38
  our condition,
• 49:39
  you know,
• 49:39
  is specifically demanding.
• 49:42
  They pay for
• 49:44
  whatever
• 49:45
  company it is
• 49:46
  and you know it's not limited to a certain city or a certain company
• 49:51
  and it's expanding.
• 49:52
  That's an indication of the deteriorating
• 49:56
  economic situation.
• 49:58
  And what the regime is afraid of
• 50:01
  is that what if,
• 50:02
  and it's not what if when
• 50:04
  this whole thing is going to turn into
• 50:06
  a major uprising the way we saw for instance in January
• 50:11
  of this year that people
• 50:13
  didn't just settle for
• 50:14
  They started
• 50:16
  getting confrontational with the Revolutionary Guard,
• 50:18
  chanting slogans
• 50:20
  day and night against the regime,
• 50:22
  not just about their wages,
• 50:23
  not about economic demands.
• 50:25
  Quickly all of that could turn
• 50:27
  into major political demands,
• 50:29
  which is regime change.
• 50:31
  Uh,
• 50:32
  but,
• 50:33
  you know,
• 50:33
  let me interrupt,
• 50:34
  let me interrupt you there,
• 50:34
  Ali Razor,
• 50:35
  because I think it's um.
• 50:37
  I,
• 50:37
  I,
• 50:38
  I agree with you.
• 50:38
  I mean,
• 50:39
  in,
• 50:39
  in theory,
• 50:40
  right?
• 50:40
  Yes,
• 50:40
  all of this pressure building and building and building,
• 50:43
  right?
• 50:43
  We saw it earlier in the year,
• 50:45
  of course,
• 50:45
  we also saw the,
• 50:46
  the regime's response.
• 50:48
  Um,
• 50:48
  and in that time,
• 50:50
  you know,
• 50:51
  the situation has gotten worse.
• 50:53
  So,
• 50:53
  in theory,
• 50:54
  you'd say,
• 50:54
  OK,
• 50:54
  fine,
• 50:55
  the people are going to at a certain point,
• 50:58
  just lose it and get back on the streets regardless of what they know will likely be
• 51:02
  the response from the regime.
• 51:04
  Uh,
• 51:04
  are you worried that
• 51:06
  That could be
• 51:09
  Off in the future,
• 51:10
  and yet it seems like
• 51:12
  the closer we get,
• 51:13
  and I know President Trump has said repeatedly,
• 51:15
  he doesn't care about the midterm elections.
• 51:17
  And that's fine,
• 51:17
  you know,
• 51:18
  you can say that
• 51:19
  all you want.
• 51:20
  Voters care about
• 51:21
  what the,
• 51:22
  the price of gas is,
• 51:23
  right?
• 51:24
  And so,
• 51:25
  and there's a lot of,
• 51:26
  you know,
• 51:26
  politicians who are concerned.
• 51:27
  And President Trump understands if he loses in the midterm elections.
• 51:32
  This whole dynamic changes,
• 51:34
  right?
• 51:34
  He's,
• 51:35
  he's gonna be facing two years of impeachment attempts by,
• 51:38
  by the Democrats.
• 51:39
  It's gonna be much harder for him to engage in any sort of unilateral military
• 51:44
  uh
• 51:44
  activity.
• 51:45
  And so,
• 51:46
  you know,
• 51:47
  it's fine to say that you
• 51:48
  don't care about the elections.
• 51:52
  you know,
• 51:52
  I think that's,
• 51:53
  I think the reality is different.
• 51:54
  So,
• 51:55
  are you worried because there's all this talk now about,
• 51:57
  oh,
• 51:57
  we've restarted negotiations,
• 52:00
  um,
• 52:01
  and
• 52:02
  it feels like
• 52:04
  there's a,
• 52:05
  uh,
• 52:06
  a real desire,
• 52:08
  right,
• 52:08
  on the part of the White House
• 52:09
  to get this over with.
• 52:11
  And the Iranians are talking about,
• 52:13
  fine,
• 52:14
  we can open the Strait of Hormuz,
• 52:16
  and it would only take us a few days to do that.
• 52:19
  Uh,
• 52:19
  but we're gonna need you to lift the blockade on the Iranian imports,
• 52:24
  uh,
• 52:24
  provide access to some frozen assets,
• 52:27
  you know,
• 52:28
  and so suddenly we might find ourselves in,
• 52:31
  and,
• 52:31
  and then of course they're gonna crow at the end of that and say,
• 52:34
  look,
• 52:35
  we defeated America.
• 52:38
  Well,
• 52:39
  exactly as you said,
• 52:40
  you know,
• 52:41
  the mullahs are masters
• 52:43
  of portraying their weakness as their strength.
• 52:47
  They're
• 52:48
  going around boasting that,
• 52:49
  you know,
• 52:49
  look,
• 52:50
  we haven't been overthrown.
• 52:53
  Therefore,
• 52:54
  you know,
• 52:54
  we managed to resist the United States,
• 52:57
  to resist
• 52:59
  the attacks and all of that.
• 53:01
  But the one thing that they cannot hide and they cannot boast about
• 53:05
  is their internal situation.
• 53:07
  That's why
• 53:07
  I keep coming back to this point.
• 53:10
  The Achilles' heel of the Iranian regime
• 53:13
  is inside Iran.
• 53:15
  You know
• 53:16
  they can.
• 53:17
  that we fire missiles and
• 53:20
  attacking ships,
• 53:21
  but none of that is going to improve the economy.
• 53:24
  None of that is going to improve
• 53:26
  the condition of the people.
• 53:27
  None of that is going to
• 53:29
  make the people of Iran friends of the mullahs.
• 53:32
  That's why no matter what they do,
• 53:34
  the internal situation
• 53:36
  is increasingly getting worse,
• 53:38
  and I think that's what needs to be understood whether
• 53:42
  it's the White House or the capitals in Europe,
• 53:45
  that this regime is vulnerable internally.
• 53:49
  If anyone wants to
• 53:51
  have leverage
• 53:53
  against the Iran regime,
• 53:54
  the leverage is inside the Iran and the
• 53:57
  vulnerability of the regime and on the other side those who are trying
• 54:02
  to overthrow this regime.
• 54:03
  That's why the regime constantly demands foreign capitals
• 54:07
  don't get close to the organized opposition.
• 54:10
  Don't even get close to the MEK.
• 54:12
  That's actually MEK how
• 54:14
  it was designated
• 54:16
  decades ago.
• 54:16
  They had to fight for 15 years to get off the list.
• 54:19
  You know all of the pressure
• 54:21
  that is built
• 54:23
  on the organized opposition
• 54:25
  as a result of the regime using that and leveraging and all of that,
• 54:30
  you need to reverse that.
• 54:32
  You need to show the Iranian regime
• 54:34
  that the outside world are not going to be intimidated by their terrorism,
• 54:38
  by their promise.
• 54:40
  all of that because they have violated all of that
• 54:44
  in the past.
• 54:45
  So if they want to sit down and negotiate,
• 54:47
  that's fine.
• 54:48
  What are the terms of
• 54:49
  the negotiations?
• 54:50
  What is it that they're holding the regime accountable?
• 54:54
  That's why I think it's so important
• 54:56
  for the outside world,
• 54:58
  especially the White House,
• 54:59
  to
• 55:00
  Realize the one leverage
• 55:02
  that needs to be
• 55:04
  taken into consideration
• 55:06
  is the people of Iran,
• 55:07
  the
• 55:08
  vulnerability of the regime inside Iran,
• 55:11
  and the desire,
• 55:12
  strong desire of the people
• 55:14
  to bring about change.
• 55:15
  You know,
• 55:15
  we have never asked for arms or
• 55:17
  boots on the ground or money,
• 55:19
  none of that.
• 55:21
  Well,
• 55:21
  let me ask you this.
• 55:22
  So I would assume you're in favor of maintaining the blockade.
• 55:26
  Um,
• 55:27
  and maintaining the sanctions
• 55:28
  and the economic pressure.
• 55:31
  Uh,
• 55:31
  as opposed to
• 55:33
  what appears to be this,
• 55:34
  this.
• 55:35
  Potential effort or this.
• 55:37
  It's always,
• 55:37
  it's sort of a false start.
• 55:38
  We've seen a lot of false starts with the negotiations over the many months.
• 55:42
  But
• 55:43
  Um
• 55:44
  So I,
• 55:45
  I,
• 55:45
  it,
• 55:45
  it,
• 55:45
  it,
• 55:46
  it sounds like what you're saying is just give the,
• 55:48
  the economic pressure time
• 55:50
  and
• 55:52
  you may then get that result that you're talking about in terms of the civil unrest.
• 55:57
  Well,
• 55:57
  you know,
• 55:58
  certainly the building pressure on the regime is important
• 56:03
  economic pressure,
• 56:04
  because
• 56:04
  at the end of the day it's the pressure on the IRGC
• 56:07
  limiting their resources,
• 56:09
  but that's not enough because at the same time
• 56:12
  you need to recognize the right of the people of Iran
• 56:15
  to
• 56:16
  overthrow this regime.
• 56:17
  You need to recognize the right.
• 56:18
  What does that mean,
• 56:19
  Ali Raisa?
• 56:20
  What does that mean when you say you need to recognize the rights of the people,
• 56:23
  because I think a lot of nations have said we'd love to see.
• 56:27
  You know,
• 56:27
  the,
• 56:27
  the,
• 56:27
  the,
• 56:28
  the,
• 56:28
  the people.
• 56:29
  Have a better opportunity,
• 56:30
  you know,
• 56:31
  to be self-determining and all that,
• 56:32
  but
• 56:33
  when you say it,
• 56:33
  what does that mean?
• 56:35
  Well,
• 56:35
  it means that when the regime starts executing
• 56:39
  the very same freedom fighters who are
• 56:41
  fighting and confronting the revolutionary Guards,
• 56:43
  you need to speak up.
• 56:45
  You need to have outrage.
• 56:46
  You need to hold the regime accountable.
• 56:49
  You need to tell the Iranian regime that even if for every single
• 56:53
  freedom fighter that they have
• 56:54
  executed
• 56:56
  since at least since March.
• 56:57
  Of this year
• 56:59
  there is a price that Tehran has to pay.
• 57:01
  That's how you defend
• 57:02
  those who are fighting the regime.
• 57:04
  You stand on their side.
• 57:05
  You hold the regime accountable
• 57:07
  for hurting them,
• 57:08
  for imprisoning them,
• 57:10
  for executing them.
• 57:12
  That hasn't been there.
• 57:13
  You know how many times you have seen
• 57:16
  condemnation
• 57:17
  of the execution of political prisoners.
• 57:19
  Iran
• 57:20
  or the other means of repression executing the rest of the population,
• 57:25
  there has to be a lot of
• 57:27
  pressure built on it.
• 57:28
  What is the accountability?
• 57:30
  The UN report came out saying that Iran was involved
• 57:33
  in the suppression and the massacre of people in January.
• 57:39
  What price did Tehran pay for it?
• 57:41
  Nothing.
• 57:42
  You know what price they're paying for their terrorism?
• 57:44
  Nothing.
• 57:45
  That's why I think it's important.
• 57:47
  Accountability is the other side
• 57:50
  of,
• 57:50
  you know,
• 57:51
  recognizing the right of the people
• 57:53
  to resist and stand up against the Iran regime.
• 57:57
  Let,
• 57:58
  let me ask you one last question,
• 57:59
  uh,
• 57:59
  being mindful of time,
• 58:00
  Alorez,
• 58:01
  um,
• 58:02
  it's,
• 58:02
  it's,
• 58:02
  it's a bit of a pivot,
• 58:03
  I admit,
• 58:04
  uh,
• 58:05
  but I'm very,
• 58:06
  uh,
• 58:06
  keen to get your perspective.
• 58:08
  Um.
• 58:10
  The Houthis
• 58:12
  and their escalation,
• 58:14
  you know,
• 58:15
  they kind of kicked off this renewed aggression
• 58:17
  offensive
• 58:18
  uh against the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
• 58:21
  What's your perspective on the relationship between the Iranians and the Houthis?
• 58:27
  Well,
• 58:27
  the Houthis are really the product of the years of cultivation and work
• 58:34
  and development of the Iran regime.
• 58:38
  The whole
• 58:39
  movement,
• 58:40
  the way it is now,
• 58:42
  the organization,
• 58:43
  the whole
• 58:44
  funding,
• 58:44
  the structure.
• 58:46
  were basically created by the Iranian regime
• 58:49
  when they had the founders in Iran like almost 30 years ago
• 58:54
  training them
• 58:56
  and then eventually funding them
• 58:58
  helping creating their units
• 59:01
  whether it was like naval units we put out
• 59:04
  a detailed press conference right here in Washington about 5 years ago
• 59:10
  about how the regime
• 59:12
  Had created
• 59:14
  naval,
• 59:15
  you know,
• 59:16
  force naval units
• 59:18
  by the Houthis that they can operate on their own and
• 59:23
  in the in the region in the in the in the waterways and
• 59:27
  All of those things we predicted all of
• 59:28
  that we showed like where they were being trained
• 59:31
  in Iran,
• 59:33
  specific location they were being trained,
• 59:35
  what kind of training they were going through,
• 59:37
  all of that
• 59:38
  and now it's not a surprise
• 59:40
  for us.
• 59:40
  So
• 59:41
  if you want to really
• 59:43
  curb the activities of the Houthis,
• 59:46
  you have to curb
• 59:48
  the Iranian regime.
• 59:49
  And that's why I think it all boils down that
• 59:52
  if you want to see peace in the region.
• 59:54
  We have to see
• 59:56
  a change by the people of Iran in Iran.
• 59:58
  There's no other shortcut.
• 1:00:00
  There's no other way.
• 1:00:01
  At the end of the day,
• 1:00:02
  that's what it boils down to.
• 1:00:05
  Yeah,
• 1:00:05
  no,
• 1:00:05
  I could,
• 1:00:05
  I could agree with you more.
• 1:00:06
  I think you want,
• 1:00:07
  you want short,
• 1:00:08
  mid,
• 1:00:08
  long-term stability
• 1:00:09
  in the region.
• 1:00:10
  You want a better opportunity for the Iranian people,
• 1:00:12
  you want,
• 1:00:13
  you know,
• 1:00:13
  a more prosperous region.
• 1:00:15
  Um,
• 1:00:17
  that all means you,
• 1:00:18
  this regime at some point has to disappear,
• 1:00:21
  uh,
• 1:00:22
  because,
• 1:00:23
  you know,
• 1:00:23
  otherwise,
• 1:00:24
  they're not gonna change their stripes,
• 1:00:26
  I would argue.
• 1:00:27
  Um,
• 1:00:28
  and,
• 1:00:29
  uh,
• 1:00:29
  uh,
• 1:00:29
  listen,
• 1:00:29
  Ali Raza,
• 1:00:30
  I,
• 1:00:30
  I wish we had more time,
• 1:00:32
  but we don't,
• 1:00:33
  uh,
• 1:00:34
  so that means you gotta come back next time.
• 1:00:37
  Absolutely,
• 1:00:37
  I'm always very happy to be on your show.
• 1:00:40
  Really appreciate the opportunity.
• 1:00:41
  Thank you so much.
• 1:00:42
  That's great.
• 1:00:43
  Listen,
• 1:00:44
  have a very good weekend,
• 1:00:45
  Ali Raza.
• 1:00:45
  We'll talk soon.
• 1:00:47
  Sure,
• 1:00:47
  thank you.
• 1:00:48
  Take care.
• 1:00:50
  Well,
• 1:00:51
  that is all the time
• 1:00:53
  we have for this week's PDB situation report.
• 1:00:55
  I know,
• 1:00:56
  I know.
• 1:00:56
  Somewhere out there in the distance,
• 1:00:57
  you can hear a sad trombone.
• 1:00:59
  If you have any questions or comments,
• 1:01:00
  just reach out to me at PDB@firstv.com.
• 1:01:03
  You know
• 1:01:04
  what happens every week.
• 1:01:06
  Carl Lamelman drops off another sack of your mail,
• 1:01:09
  postcards and your Western Union Telegrams.
• 1:01:12
  Actually,
• 1:01:12
  the little guy with the hat shows up with the telegrams.
• 1:01:15
  That's an old reference,
• 1:01:16
  isn't it?
• 1:01:17
  Uh,
• 1:01:17
  and,
• 1:01:18
  uh,
• 1:01:18
  you know,
• 1:01:18
  we sit down,
• 1:01:20
  we dump all those cards onto the rich mahogany conference table.
• 1:01:24
  And the entire team,
• 1:01:25
  including our above-average interns,
• 1:01:27
  we select the best questions and comments,
• 1:01:29
  put them together in an Ask Me Anything episode,
• 1:01:32
  and
• 1:01:33
  we,
• 1:01:33
  uh,
• 1:01:34
  put that on
• 1:01:35
  the internets,
• 1:01:37
  the webs thing,
• 1:01:38
  whatever it is that Al Gore created.
• 1:01:41
  So,
• 1:01:41
  what all that means is keep your cards and letters coming.
• 1:01:44
  That was a long way to get to that point,
• 1:01:45
  wasn't it?
• 1:01:46
  It's like
• 1:01:46
  taking forever to get to the punchline of a joke.
• 1:01:49
  All right.
• 1:01:49
  Finally,
• 1:01:50
  listen to the podcast ad-free.
• 1:01:52
  You can do that.
• 1:01:52
  I've talked about this before.
• 1:01:53
  It's very,
• 1:01:54
  very simple.
• 1:01:54
  Just become a premium member
• 1:01:56
  of the President's Daily Brief by visiting PDBpremium.com.
• 1:02:00
  And by doing that,
• 1:02:01
  you also get access to the Ask Me Anything episodes.
• 1:02:04
  See how I brought it all around.
• 1:02:05
  It's like the circle of life.
• 1:02:07
  I'm Mike Baker.
• 1:02:08
  And until next time,
• 1:02:09
  yeah,
• 1:02:10
  stay informed.
• 1:02:11
  Stay safe.
• 1:02:12
  Stay cool.