Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 4 Lines and Spreads with Vegas Bookmaker Scooch

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NFL Week 4 Lines and Spreads with Vegas Bookmaker Scooch · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites. I am Chad Millman of the
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: Action Network. This is the Wednesday episode of the Favorite podcast,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: which can only mean I am going to be joined
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: by my favorite person in the world, including possibly many
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: days members of my own family. Well hold on before
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: you can start talking, a buddy. As you know, we
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: have a gift for you. So here we go. That
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: was the new theme music for Bookmaker to the World,
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Mr Bob SCOOCHI how you doing, buddy, I'm doing good.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: I like it. That is incredible walk up music. Listen.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: We put that to a vote on the Twitter uh
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: and people wait in. I got a lot of texts
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: with people's opinions, and then people wait in by a
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: two to one margin. They liked this theme music that
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: we called boom tastic. Um. They liked it better than
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I think the other was called like rock opera or
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: rock drama. What I'm thrilled about is that, Um. Last
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: time we did this at ESPN, we did a vote
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: and we gave people options and they chose the wrong
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: one and I had to overrule them. So I'm glad
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: that the people made the right choice this week. You
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: didn't have to overrule them. You were going to pick
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: this this one anyway. Give the people what they want,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: as they say, and we're giving them boom tastic. I
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: love it. Here's a question for you if you were
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: playing Major League baseball. I know you were a an
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: excellent baseball player when you're growing up, and then you
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: believe you played at usc with Mark McGuire. If I'm
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: not mistaken, if it's not true, don't say it. Let's
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: make that part of the legacy. Um, if you were
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: playing at Yankee Stadium today, what would your walk up
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: music be? I know what mine would be. This came
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: up the other night at dinner. Oh well, I don't know.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: I'd have to I have to think about that one.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Uh you know, I I I think I like that
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: that song from the hang the movie to Hangover, and
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: I think it's by Usher, And uh, I know it
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: might be a little dated, but but I kind of
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: like that one. I know you'd know it if you
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: if you heard it. Are we looking it up? We're
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: looking it up right now. What's it called? Yeah? Yeah,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: it's just called Yeah. You know what mine would be?
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: This came up the other night at dinner with my wife.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: But we'll assume that the people know what it is.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: Mine would be Crazy and Love by Beyonce and jay Z.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: The beginning of that song is so good. When I
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: work out and I'd ride the elliptical in my house
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: or do it at the gym, at the hotel wherever
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: I'm at. UM, I will play Crazy and Love and
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: it will get me going, like I feel like I
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: could ride for hours, climb fifty steps. The beginning is amazing. Yeah,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: it's amazing how some of that that music can get
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: to kind of pumped up and ready to go. Huh.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: You know. It also gets me pumped up winning who'd
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: you have? Well? Last weekend, I had a crazy weekend.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: And I'm gonna start writing about this on Sundays, and
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna put this on Monday mornings on the Action Network.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Going to call it the Red Zone Diaries at Millman's
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Red Zone Diaries. UM, just a preview for people to
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: get excited about. But my Sundays are crazy because I
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: get up super early and I go to Bristol, go
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: to the studios in Bristol for ESPN, and I go
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: in Sports Center and I got to talk about games
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: that I like, our games that are sort of trending
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: in a certain direction based on the market, all this
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: kind of stuff. So this past weekend, I had the
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Niners against the Chiefs. I had the Niners plus six
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: and a half. Then I had the Saints plus three
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: against the Falcons, and I had the Redskins. I forgot
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: what they went off at. Maybe it was plus two
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: and a half plus three against the Packers. So I
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: went two and one. And like, my Sundays are so
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: tense because you go on national television. I get texts
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: from friends after or like get tweeted at after and
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: like you're you're giving an opinion, right, And then I've
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: given an opinion throughout the week either on this podcast,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: we're in the super Contest, I'm playing in a pick
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: up contest against my best friend. Like, over the course
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: of Sunday, I'm in nuts or I'm just taking a nap.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: But like it's a really exhausting day. And like every game,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: like every play, I'm watching red Zone and it's like
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I'm standing in front of the television, um, trying not
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: to be emotional, trying to set a good example for
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: my kids, and uh, it doesn't always go very well.
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: But this weekend it went well boasted by the fact
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: I think I want a little scooch roulette. Well, my
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: team one too. So I don't mean yeah, I don't
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: mean that I beat you. I just mean I mean that.
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: I I mean that I covered like I had the
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: court scoot pick up. I mean you can see the
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: pressure that I'm under. I'm making picks all over the place,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: and like horemendous people are depending on me. Yeah, way more,
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: way more pressure than than me on a Sunday. That
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: you have all this money hanging in the balance for
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: for my job. Wow, you know what I liked about that?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: There's nothing writing on it except you know what I liked, uh,
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: the dead pan delivery. It was like a very hot
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: shiv right to my belly. I didn't even feel it right.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: You do have millions of dollars on the line every
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: single weekend. I'm not gonna deny that you have a
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: very high pressure job for which you are very well
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: compensated and live a fantastic life because for years you
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: have proven that you can beat the market, you can
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: be smarter than everybody else, which is why, by the way,
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: you've been the subject of a best selling book called
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: The Odds, which you may or may not have written,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: and why you have your very own podcast on the
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: same I like several books this week? Did you sign
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: several books this week? Oh? Yeah, every week? It's amazing.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: You know who doesn't sign books? Me? Not a single
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: person who's asked me to sign a books. I've written
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: seven and I haven't asked. You don't have a single
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: person has asked me to sign a book this year.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: That's what this world has come to. That's what this
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: has come to you. I write this freaking book, I
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: come up with this idea, I slave over it, like
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: all of this, all of this, and yet because you've
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: got a name like Scooch and you laugh nicely like
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: people ask you to sign the book. It's weird how
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: it works out. Bullshit. Right now, I want my due,
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: I want my do Maybe you should write another book?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Oh god, I don't have the time. It's too exhausting.
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: I'll help you write it. Oh god, it's the last
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: thing I need you getting credit for another book that
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: I wrote. Are you ready to do these games? Scooch?
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Are you ready to run through these? Alright? Alright, bro,
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: let's do it. We got a Thursday night game. We
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: got the l a Rams six and a half point
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: favorites against the Minnesota Vikings. If there was ever a
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: time to bet the Vikings, this is the week. That's
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: what I'm saying right now. Yeah, what do you think?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: I couldn't agree more? You know the line. H Initially
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: there were some sevens popping out and we went down
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: the six and a half and after after seeing the Vikings,
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: uh just get destroyed by the Bills. You just have
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: to believe that knowing that they were going to come
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: off of a short week, that they were probably preparing
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: for this game a little bit a little overlooking of
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: the Bills. Uh, they were clearly looking for looking to
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: this game. Uh, and then having lost the way they did, Uh,
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: you can believe that they're going to come out with
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: all cylinders firing. Um. Not saying that they're gonna win
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: the game, but to be getting six and a half points, Uh,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: it seems like this this is gonna be the play.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: You can't take too much into one bad game. And
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: we say it all the time, and we mentioned it
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit last week, where none of the teams
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: that look as bad as they are are really that bad.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: And you know, the the good teams aren't as good
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: as you think. The bad teams aren't as bad as think. Um.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: You know, Week four is kind of where you start
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: to really uh see the true colors of the team.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: So I would definitely favor the Vikings in this one.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: We're definitely gonna need the Vikings in this one. I
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: could tell you we're gonna be rooting for him. The
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: money's already coming in on the Rams. I don't have
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: any any sharp money on the Vikings yet, but I'm
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: sure we will. I don't think that the sharp guys
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: are gonna lay the six and a half, and the
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: ticket counts already at three to one Rams to Vikings.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: How great was last weekend for you? When you've got
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: the Redskins winning out right, you've got the Patriots losing,
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: You've got the Vikings getting killed. Um, like, I think
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: you might have lost a little bit of money on
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: the Rams. You probably lost a little bit of money
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: on um on the Chiefs, but Jesus you raked it
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: in last weekend. Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'll take that weekend.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: If we can have a few more of those the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: rest of the year, that'd be just fine by me.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: You know what, You didn't have to do last weekend.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: You didn't have to last weekend. You didn't have to
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: last weekend. Call anybody up and say, imagine how much
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: worse it couldn't have been. It could have been if
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I didn't make these moves early in the week. Oh
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: that sucks, you know what I mean? I hate having
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: to do that. It's the worst. That's the worst. They
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: hate that hate that for you. Yeah, alright. Chicago Bears
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: three point favorites. Uh over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Boy,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: this is an interesting one. They are at home. Buccaneers
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: lose last night, but they make it a game at
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: the end. Uh. We don't even know is Jamis Winston playing?
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: Is Ryan Fitzpatrick gonna play? Can you depend on the
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Bears after the first fifteen plays like I was on
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: the Cards last weekend and Josh Rose in through a
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: pick six to almost give the Bears a backdoor cover
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: if not for an offside, it's called um. I bet
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Tom Waddle, who was a radio personality in Chicago, played
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: for the Bears. I go on his radio show and
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: I was all over the Cardinals. He was all over
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: the Bears, and the week before I was all over
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks, and he was all over the Bears. So
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: this week I had I owed him, like, I don't know,
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: a case of wine or something, and he was gonna
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: have to send me deep dish pizza. He let me
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: go double or nothing. And before the pick six I
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: texted him and been like, you know few and then
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I knew I made a mistake. And if not for
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: that outside penalty, I'm like, I'm two cases of wine
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: into wild right now. Who's he? Who's he like in
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: this one? Does he like the Bears? We haven't talked
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: about it yet. It's a good question. We're gonna talk
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: about it on Friday. M suspense. Who do you like
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: in this one? Well, you mentioned the Keith you know
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: Ryan Fitzpatrick. I mean, obviously he was having a great
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: time the first couple of weeks. Uh, going into the
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: game against Pittsburgh. They came down to reality a little bit,
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: a couple of turnovers. They did make it a game,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: uh late late in the game. Uh, but I think
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: they got exposed a little bit. Uh. You know, people
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: thought the Steelers weren't as good as they as they
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: really are. So that was actually a big game for
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: the house to that line moved. We we hung the
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Steelers minus three, and it closed the Buccaneers minus one
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: and a half, so four and a half point line
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: moved there. I think this game is gonna be similar
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: to the fourth quarter of of the Steelers uh Buccaneers game,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: where it's gonna come right down to the wire. The
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Bears have been playing all their games really tight. They're
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: all coming down to the y. They played close to
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the vest Um and I favor Chicago in this one.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: The line is three. I would imagine if the sharp
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: guys can't come in on this game, they would probably
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: take the three with the Buccaneers rather than lay the three.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: But I really feel that this is a solid number here.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know if Winston's coming back or not. I mean,
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: he's served this suspension, but how do you not go
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: with Fitzpatrick. So this is gonna be interesting to play
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: out the rest of the week. I think if we
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: see that wins is going to be playing this final
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: go up. So it's kind of one of those situations
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: where we know what we get with Fitzpatrick, we're not
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: we don't know what we're gonna get with with Winston here.
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: So uh, I think three is a good number though,
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: you mean it'll go up the Bears will be favored
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: by more. Yeah, yeah, interesting. Yeah. I don't have an
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: opinion on this game yet. I don't really know what
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: to say about it. Um. The Colts Texans game is
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: really interesting to me. Uh, what did you open at
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: and what are you at now? We opened three on
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: the Colts and we're at one and a half now,
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: so you've had money coming in on the Texans. Yeah,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: and and this one I did not understand. I really
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: like this Colts team. Um, we talked about it last week.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: You actually played him even in your Scooch forholepic against
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the Eagles that they actually looked pretty good. Um. I've
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: been kind of uh uh impressed with the games, even
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: in their losses. I said last week that they were
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than than people thought. And give
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Andrew Lucka some some time to come back after missing
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: so much time the last couple of years. Um, So
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: coming into this game, I was really I thought, if
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: anything in the line would go up, the Colts minus three.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: So the sharp guys are seeing something here that that
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: we're just not picking up on. We're not seeing. Um,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: maybe they feel that this is the game that Houston's
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: defense uh shuts down luck. But uh, I don't mind
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: needing the Colts in this one. It looks like the
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: public is on the Colt So the ticket accounts about
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: three to one Colts to Texans. But again that that
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: sharp money, um, which last week, there's a lot of
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: games the sharp guys were on. They won more games
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: than they lost, so, uh, they might be on a
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: roll here and they're on the Texans. This really doesn't
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: make any sense to me. I saw this game when
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: I saw it on Sunday night. I saw the Colts
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: is two and a half point favorites, and I will
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: say that I bet it immediately, um, because I thought
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: it was going to go up. And I'm getting to
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: me what has looked like the significantly better team, uh
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: that has played better teams in closer games. And it
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: doesn't make sense to me that this line has moved
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: in the other direction. What could the professionals possibly be
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: seeing in the Texans right now? Did they feel like
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: their defense started to come around. J. J. Watts started
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: to get some pressure on the ball, They felt like, uh,
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: maybe Deshaun Watson started to get some of the rustoff
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: from his knee injury against the Giants, but they were
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: out of that game the whole time. They were not
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: in that game. Whereas the Colts, like their defense is
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: just better than people think. You know, their middle of
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: the pack, but that's so much better than where they
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: were going to be, which was historically bad. They have
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: really good young linebackers and who fly to the ball
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: and they're fast. And I've seen this team play the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: Bengals where I think they could have won if not
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: for that fumble in the first game. Uh, they beat
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: up on the Redskins, who then beat up on the Packers,
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: and they had a chance to beat the Eagles, um
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: if not for sort of an eleven minute drive by
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: the Eagles that included a couple of bad penalties, some
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: of those roughing the pastor penalties, and they were threatening,
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: like at the end of the game, in the last
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: in the final seconds. I don't see it. Of course,
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: I'm on the Colts in this game, absolutely I I
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: and I couldn't agree with you more. And I don't
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: mind needing needing the Colts here. It's always different when
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: you when you get an interdivisional game like like this
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: that the team step it up and play a little bit, uh,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit harder. They take the game a little
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: They know that it's the um, it means a little
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: bit more, so they amp it up a little bit.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: But I don't I I just don't see it, and
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't see it. So um, maybe you and
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: I just became part of the public. Or maybe the
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: sharps are getting stupid. I don't know. It's not like
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: you to lay a bad number. I'll tell you that way.
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: I don't lay bad numbers. Uh, that's what they've always
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: said about me. Don't lay bad numbers. Dallas minus three
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: over the Detroit Lions, the resurgent Detroit Lions who beat
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: up on the Patriots. This was a game. There were
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: a couple of lines last weekend where I was just
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: so disappointed in myself because I like just didn't follow
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: sort of the basic principles that I always follow, which
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: are I didn't I didn't take the big number in
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: the Bills Vikings. I just didn't bet the game, and
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: I didn't take the big home dog in the Lions.
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: I didn't bet the game. And like I always preach,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: you gotta do it every time, right, like, because then
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: you missed the time when you know it wins because
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: you're nervous and you're not playing sort of what you
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: believe and didn't play what I believed and I didn't
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: bet the lines and that was a mistake. And if
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: you remember we talked about that, that that separates a
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: lot of the professional betters from the recreational betters in
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: that they take a team like the Lions and never
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: bat an eye. It's an it's an automatic take. Maybe
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: they don't even watch the game. They just it's just
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: an automatic. Same thing with the Bills. Uh, anytime you
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: get close to a seven team point underdog, you just
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: take it. I think the fact that the Lions were
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: playing the Patriots was the thing. Hadn't been any other
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: team for you, and you probably would have been the
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: same where you just take that that six and a
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: half at home. But just because it's the Patriots and
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: they still have that legacy and that that you know,
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: that thing about them that it's hard to bet against them.
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: But recently it's, uh, you know, we're starting to see
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: all those chinks in the armor, so it's getting easier
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: and easier to to to bet against them. Yeah. Right,
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: So what do you think of this game we got
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: the Cowboys is three point favorites. Well, the only thing
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: in this one so so these teams were kind of
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: evenly matched in all of the metrics that that we've
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: been using. And the thing about the Cowboys is the
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: lack of public appeal now that we're seeing and here's
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: a team that just a lot of the linemaking is
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: just based on the fact that we know a lot
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: of the public is gonna bet them, and they have
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: really gotten off of this team after Week one. Uh.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: They saw a kind of a lackluster performance against the Giants. UH.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: They saw a lackluster offense to offensive, could not move
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: the ball against Seattle so uh. Even though the Lions
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: came up with that big win against the uh um
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: the Patriots. I think the public doesn't like either one
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: of these teams, and we're seeing it in the ticket account.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: It's one of the least bad games and it's just
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: not it's not likely for it's not typical for a
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Cowboys game to just not have a lot of action
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: on so UM. The public has the sharp guys haven't
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: weighed in on it yet. Ticket count is dead even
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: although you know the volume is very low on it. Uh.
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: I think the Cowboys is probably the play here at
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: at home, uh, laying the three points. Uh, you know,
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: if you had to put the gun into my head,
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: I'd probably lay the Cowboys more than take the take
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the Lions. What are the metrics you're using? All the
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: typical ones you mentioned them that. I mean, I'm not
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: going to go into all of what goes into our
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: power rankings. It's a it's a it's a formula that
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: just takes a lot of the statistics. Uh. You know,
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: we throw it into We throw the numbers in. We
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: throw the uh numbers in after each game each week,
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: and it's sometimes it adjusts their offense and defense of
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: power rankings and overall power rankings. Uh, and sometimes it doesn't.
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: But uh, you know it. You know, we just throw
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: those numbers in and it comes spits out a number
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: for us. Is it possible that the Cowboys and Lions
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: could end up being the corner TV game? Looking at
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: the board, I'm thinking it is, Well, Texans and Colts
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: is pretty yea. Not Texans and Colts and Cowboys and
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: Lines are probably the the ones that are going to
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: be on the corners. Right now, I'm showing in the
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: Action network gap uh four times as many bets on
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: the Texans and Colts as I'm seeing on the Cowboys
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: and lines. That's true. I mean, that's what I'm saying
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that you would not expect this. I'm looking at to
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: see what how much action we have, and by far
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: that the Dolphins and Patriots have have the most um
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: and uh, followed up by Jets, Jaguars, but Lions and
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Cowboys is far far down the line. All right, speaking
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: of Dolphins and Patriots, Uh, Patriots seven point favorites over
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: the three No Dolphins. That's a tough one. Tell me
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: how you come to that decision. Yeah, it's kind of
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: the same, close to the same number that that we
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: would have used, and I know that doesn't probably doesn't
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: make a whole lot of sense. In other words, the
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: line would have been right around uh seven and a
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: half eight prior to the Patriots losing against the Lions
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: and the Dolphins beaten the Raiders. So we haven't adjusted
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: either team too much. And this may be a mistake,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: but again, this goes back to what we think the
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: public is going to be betting more so than what
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the true line should be. So that means that the
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: line should really be lower, and the sharp guys are
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: gonna pick up on that, and they're gonna bet the Dolphins,
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: and uh, the public is still gonna lay the big
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: number with New England even though Miami's three oh and
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: New England coming off two losses. We know there's gonna
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: be a lot of money on New England. So we're
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: gonna be on the high side here and go into
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: it knowing that the sharp guys will be on the
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Dolphins and the public will be on the Patriots. And
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: you're happy to be uh on to be taking the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: side here. Yeah, I already know that, uh that the
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: sharp guys are gonna take this number. They're not gonna
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: lay this number. Um, But I'm okay with that because uh,
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: I know that the volume on the Patriots is gonna
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: be tremendous and we're gonna need the Dolphins regardless. So
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: uh uh, you know, I don't like I don't like
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: going to the lower numbers so early in the week
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: because then you're allowing the public to get a good
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: number as well. We're trying so we're trying to let
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: the public lay a worst number early in the week,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: knowing that it possibly could come down to six and
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: a half late in the week from the wise guys
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: taking the Dolphins, and then suddenly the the public is
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: getting to lay six and a half instead of seven.
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: You have admitted that you're looking to take advantage of
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: the public. What is that about? Ok, Well, we just
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: you know, so if we could. I mean, you think
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: about it. Like professional betters are always trying to middle
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: a game, It's possible for a bookmaker to middle the
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: public too. I mean, if you're able to get somebody
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: to lay minus seven and early in the week and
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: then get the sharp guys to take plus six and
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: a half later in a week, then you've set yourself
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: up in a pretty good position. Listen, you're in the
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: money making business. We know that. Yeah, that's the name
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: of the game, all right. Cincinnati, uh is a six
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: point favorite over the Atlanta Falcons. I'm sorry the Falcons
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: explained favorites over the Bengals. Um interesting game. That's at
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: that actually is a really interesting game. It's a weird
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: number to make. I feel like you're right in the
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: middle there. It was tough number to make, too, because
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: we were probably a lot higher on the Bengals than
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: we were after after last week. But but we still
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: kind of like this Bengals team, just not as much
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: as we like the Falcons team. And we know, um
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: the Falcons similar to the Patriots, that the public is
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: always on this team, even though even though the Falcons
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: let one up and lost against the Saints last week,
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: and maybe maybe that'll slow down some of the betting
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: on the Falcons, but we do know that the money
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: is going to be there, so we want to be
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: a little on the high side. This number is actually
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: coming down as we speak, and I'm actually changing this
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: from six to five and a half. Were moving through
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: this line change yep, And I'll tell you the tell
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: you what what hit on this game more than anything
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: is the total. We just got rocked on this total. Uh.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: And it came in in like a matter of thirty seconds. Uh.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: You know, we have a screen that that shows all
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: the betting coming in from all the properties, and uh,
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: we were kind of managing a situation on the other
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: side of the room and when I turned around, the
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: entire screen was just lit up with bets from every property.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: All wise, guys, but just you know, five thousand dollar
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: bets just like coming through one after another. On the
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: over on the Bengals Falcons, we open forty eight and
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: this thing just ran and we're up to fifty one now.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: So we dropped the ball on the total for sure
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: on this one. Well, you know you didn't. Uh the
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: Falcons safety was injured in the game and he's out
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: for the year. Hold on, we're gonna look it up
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: right now. Uh, so you didn't drop the ball the
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: wise guys, we're paying more attention than you like. So
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: now the Falcon's safety, Ricardo Allen is out for the
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: season with a torn achilles. So now they're without Keanuno,
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Dion Jones, and Ricardo Allen. So like they were already
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: getting lit up, right, Like the Panthers lit him up.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: The Saints lit him up. Uh, look at what Christian
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: Caffrey did against them in week two. Look at what
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: Alvin Kamara and Drew Brees did in we three. Like
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: Andy Dawland's not that good, but you know, like they've
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: got a good a good enough passing game that this
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: team is is missing. It's starting like it's three best
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: defensive players and they're still betting it right now. And
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: I'm going down to five as we speak. So I
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: just went from five and a half down to five
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: another line change. So it's almost like they're listening to you.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: It's it's almost like, yeah, exactly asking as I'm speaking.
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: We'll look like the Bengals defense is still pretty good. Um.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: They didn't play great this past week. They gave up
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: some big plays, especially in the Russian game, which is
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: not which is something that usually don't do. But the
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: Falcon secondary isn't bad shape, and so I can see
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: why that total is flying. Um, and I can see
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: why guys are coming in on the Bengals. Yep. Yeah,
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: like I said, we dropped the ball. Dropped the ball happens.
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: It happens to the best of you, Scooch. We're gonna
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: get to our next game in a second, but first,
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: anyone who listens to the podcast knows that we want
• 27:52
  Speaker 1: to spend our time researching our bets, and we want
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: to spend our money making those bets. That's why everybody
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: is listening to me in Scooch right now. That means
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: we need help feeding ourselves and feeding our families. That's
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• 29:15
  Speaker 1: favorites sixty. To get all this goodness, let's get back
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: to Scooch. Speaking of goodness, the Green Bay Packers minus
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: ten over the Buffalo Bills. This is a strange line. So, uh,
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: it's a It's a tough one, and especially coming off
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: of that Bill's big, big win, you wonder if they
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: can put two two in a row together and uh,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: we're we're not gonna get caught where we're gonna just
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: over adjust all of the one game. We we still know,
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: um who the public is gonna bet. I actually feel
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: pretty good knowing that. Uh, maybe the betting public is
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: gonna slow down a little bit on I mean, just
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: think of how they would just pound the Packers in
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: this one had the Bills gotten destroyed again three weeks
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: in a row. Uh So, Uh, I think I think
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: ten is probably a solid number. I'm looking at the
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: ticketcount and it looks pretty even. So I think we
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: we may have hit it kind of right on the
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: nose on this one. I don't think that. I don't
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: think the public knows what to do on this one. Uh,
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: they're probably afraid to lay such a big number, seeing
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: that the Bills just beat another NFC contender last week,
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: you know decisively, So um, I think that it may
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: have just slowed them down to where they're not quite
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: sure what to do here. Have the wise guys come
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: in at all on the bills because it's such a
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: big number. Nobody's touched this one yet and most I
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: mean it's all small stuff parlays and teasers and you know,
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: a few small straight bets, but none of the big
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: bets have come in on either side on this one.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: What about the Jags and got them confused? They're not? Yeah,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: you do, you completely haven't confused. I don't know what
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: to in this game. I look at that number, I'm like,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Like the problem is Aaron Rodgers really
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: can't move and his offensive line really can't protect him. Yeah.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: I mean, so that everyone's looking at the same thing
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: and they haven't seen quite enough yet. And so a
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: couple of teams that have just been like so completely
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: up and down that they really can't get any consistency
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: out of these teams yet. What about the Jags and
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the Jets seven and a half point favorites the Jags
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: at home there were seven and a half point favorites
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: last weekend at home against the Titans. Did not cover
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: that Titans team really interesting, Um, why do you make
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: the number seven and a half? Where are the wise
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: guys at this point? Well, we actually made the line
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: nine and the white guys were all over the Jets.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: They went went down to eight and a half. They
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: took the eight and a half. We skipped eight, went
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: straight from eight and a half down to seven and
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: a half, which is where we are now. Um, we
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: tried not to over adjust after uh last week when
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: when the jag lost, you know, they had the Jacks
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: had the big win against New England. And then I'll
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: tell you there was someone who tweeted during the podcast
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: last week, do you think the Jags are going to
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: be in for a letdown after the Patriot game? And
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: I remember saying, no, I don't think at this level
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: that they that they would And it wasn't really in
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: the linemaking that there would be a letdown. So I
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: kept thinking of that tweet last week when I'm watching
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars lose to the to the Titans. But we don't.
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: But we didn't over adjust after the Titans game, and
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: we didn't. We didn't adjust the Jaguars down any and
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: uh so that's why we hung the nine, and the
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: sharp guys took it right away, went down to eight
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: and a half. Down the seven and a half now, um,
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: it maybe a little on the high side obviously, but
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: we we think the public will still lay the Jaguars
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: in this one. Yeah. I think they will too, and
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: especially if they're seeing it at seven, Like, what do
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: you think it is? By Sunday, it'll it'll go back up.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I think that the sharp guys have taken all the
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: value out of it by now. Um, I don't see
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: it continuing to drop down. I think the public will
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: start to slowly drive it back up and it'll be
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: it'll be right around eight eight and a half by
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: game time. I want to talk about the Titans because
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: the next game, you know, they're three and a half
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: point home dogs against the Eagles. I gotta tell you, man,
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: I feel like I feel like you're hanging a bad
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: line there, a really bad line. Did you open it
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: three and did that get bet up? Or where are
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: you right now? We open three and a half. I
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: know some places are actually at four or went up
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: to four. So when you say a bad line, you
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: think that it should be lower. Right. It just feels
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: like you like the Titans. Like, who's betting it up
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: right now? Is it the public or the wise guys?
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: All public? I mean, I'm showing ten to one. I
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: don't know if you're showing something similar. I'm not. I'm
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: showing uh yeah about that. So this is gonna be
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: one of those games like last week where the like
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: the Packers if you remember the Packers Redskins, where the
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: sharp guys were on the Redskins and the public was
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: on the Packers at minus two and a half on
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: the road, or the Patriots Lions where the public was
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: all over the Patriots minus six and a half the
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: wise guys were on the Lions at home. This is
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: going to be the same scenario where the public is
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: going to see that this is kind of just the
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: easy automatic win on their parlays and and everything else that. Uh,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: the Eagles should cover this easy Tennessee. As good as
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: they are, they're a team that doesn't get a lot
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: of public attention. They don't they don't get a lot
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: of uh you know, national airtime, and they kind of
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: fly under the radar. There not a publicly kind of
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: followed team. Uh so this this sets up as a
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: as a perfect game for the Sharp guys to take
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: the points at home and and the public to to
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: be a little disappointed. Uh betting the Eagles, I will
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: tell you right now, I am going to bet that's
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: items in this game. And I think we know the
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: reason they haven't gotten sort of any national attention is
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: because of their logo. But I do think that I
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: do think they've done a really nice job upgrading their helmets.
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: I think we've talked about this, huge fan of what
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: they've done, huge, huge fan of the new color scheme.
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: I think that's great. I also think that do I
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: wait on this, like I want to bet the Titans,
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: But do I wait on it because you think it's
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: going to go even higher than three and a half?
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Can I get it at four? I think so, because
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I think if the Sharp guys were going to take
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: three and a half, in other words, if they thought
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: it was way too high, they would have already taken it.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I think the the Sharp guys know also that it's
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: going to be such a public game that they can
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: probably get a much better number later in the week.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: So I see the number going up. You could probably
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: easily get plus four later, maybe even four and a
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: half when you watch the Titans like it's astonishing to
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: me that they've won any games because they don't seem
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: to be very good. Yeah, no, I I know they're
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: kind of a tough team to watch. I remember watching
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: them in the first week against Miami, and uh they
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: impressed me. I mean, Miami came away with the with
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: the win, but uh uh, they came out pretty a
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: lot stronger than I than I thought in that game.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: That's an interesting one. Really, they're in tough time. I
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: don't want I don't watch them. Ahola. Alright, let's next game.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: Everybody's favorite team, the Cleveland Browns traveling to Oakland. Oakland
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: is a two point favorite. This is another one. I've
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: got an opinion on this game. But tell me where
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: you're at and tell me what's been happening, because there's
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: been some some pretty significant movement in this line already. Yeah,
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: we're at the Raiders are minus two and a half
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: and we took some Raiders money. We're at two and
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: a half minus twenty. We're probably gonna end up at three.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: And we thought we opened high I know someplace as
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: we're at one and a half when we opened a
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: two and a half. So um, we Uh, we're definitely
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: seeing some Raiders money, both sharp and public, both on
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: the same time. It's uh, both on the same side.
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: And not a lot of action on the Browns at all. Um.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: You know, Baker Mayfield is going to get the start here. Uh.
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: He looked really good in the second half against the
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: Jets and uh, but that that may be one of
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: the deciding factors. But Oakland at three and oh uh
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: at home against what is one of the worst teams. Uh.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: I could understand some of the money, but this was
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: a tough one. It's a tough one to make. And
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: but the public and then the sharves both are on
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: the same side. And it's the volume on this one
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: is actually pretty good for for not having uh, you know,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: uh a whole lot of money on the game. There's
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: a lot of tickets written on it. It is so
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: like they're they're an interesting team, the Raiders, because the
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: wise guys were all over them against the Dolphins, and
• 38:02
  Speaker 1: I couldn't figure out why. Like the Dolphins to me,
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: were clearly the better team, they were a short number
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: at home. It just didn't make sense to me that
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: people were coming in on the Raiders. But I am
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: definitely in about the Raiders this week. In factually, I
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: actually just bet them at UH minus two and a
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: half minus one oh five. But why do you think
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: people were coming in on the Raiders just last week
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: and like what do you what are you seeing? Like,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: what's what's happening? Yeah, well, the Raiders are actually just
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: they're just giving it up in the fourth quarter. There's nothing,
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: there's nothing in the in the games that show that
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: they're they they're not playing at the level that they
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: should be playing. It's just that they're they're not finishing
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: out the games. They're they're playing really well in the
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: first half. I think they've been up in almost in
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: all three of the UH their games where they were
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: either up or tied in the after the first half
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: and even after the third quarter, and then they're just
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: not finishing out the games. And that maybe just some
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: some adjustments that need to be made on the coaching side.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: But but I think the tools are there. UH. And
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: you know, you look at this team from basically the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: same team from last year with with some really key
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: additions and obviously Khalil Mack and UH, they should be
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: playing much better. They're they're not living up to their
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: potential and the wise guys, like you said, run them
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: last week. And it's usually a few weeks of the
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: wise guys being on them and losing before they finally
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: get off a team. They usually ride them a few
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: weeks in a row. You can kind of see a
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: trend when you start seeing which teams the sharp guys
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: are betting each week. So they're they're certainly on them
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: again this week. And uh uh, I think it's just
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: a short number. Short that's another kind of a play.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: If you're laying less than a field goal at home,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: that's usually a a pretty good play too. Yeah, I agree, Um,
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: that's why I bet it. Just did it. I just
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: did it on my phone. Uh see on the Raiders.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: I'm on the Raiders minus two and I got him
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: at minus two and a half of my minus one
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: oh five. It's a pretty good number and a pretty
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: good price for me. Okay, feel good about I think
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: so that's you know, it goes right back to you
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: being that that. Yeah, listen, Scooch exactly. You gotta take that.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: You gotta get the best the number. That's how you
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: keep money in your pocket. You know what I'm saying.
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: I hear you don't laugh at me. What game are
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: we on? Yeah, I got that time for you. See,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: we're on Seattle as a three point favorite on the
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: road in Arizona. Yeah, and this was I'm not crazy
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: about this line. I understand the money coming in on
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: the Cardinals here. We opened Seattle three and a half,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: got some early money on the Cardinals at home plus
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: three and a half. Uh, we went to three minus
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: twenty on Seattle. Actually, we're at three minus twenties still
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: right now. The public is on Seattle. So so that's
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: a good sign. It'll be another game where the publics
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: on one side and the sharp guys are on the other.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: Anytime you get the short road favorites. Uh, we know,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: we've talked about so many times that the the general
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: betting public loves to see just short numbers on on
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: these teams on the road, uh, not realizing that the
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: home field advantage is kind of built in there. Um.
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: But the sharp guys are all over the Cardinals in
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: this one. Um, not a whole lot of I mean, yeah,
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: this is a this is a tough one. I don't
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: know what's your take on this one. Well, you have
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: to bet the Cardinals because all the money is going
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: to be on the road favorite. Like, if I'm gonna
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: live believe in my philosophy, I have to do that
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: with the Cardinals. I gotta do it with the Giants.
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: I gotta do it with the Broncos. Like there's a
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: whole host of games that I gotta do it with. Um,
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to do it with Tennessee. Uh you know,
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: I got to I got to go. I gotta be
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: who I am. Yeah, yeah, you know what I'm saying.
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: It's for no other reason. Like I'm not even looking
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: at the teams. I'm just looking at the number. I
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: see the home team is a three point dog, and
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I see all the money coming in on the road favorite,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: Like I'm going with the Cardinals. Next up, Saints three
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: and a half against the Giants on the road. Another one.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: This is another one, And this one, this one scares
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: me a little bit because the public just loves the
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Saints team now after just one win. Uh you know,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: I mean they've got a couple of wins, but they
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: didn't look good in the covers. But uh man, this
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: this one might be our biggest uh difference in terms
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: of ratio of of tickets bet Saints to two Giants.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's crazy right now. The everybody's just
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: is on this uh Saints team against the Giants. I
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: don't mind needing the Giants. And in this one, it's
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: just one of those games. It's gonna be tough. It's
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: an afternoon game, which means the volume is going to
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: be heavier because there's only a few afternoon games and
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: this looks like it's going to be our biggest afternoon game.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: And boy, I'm just uh, We've got a couple of
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: big bets on the Giants, but just not enough to
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: offset all the parlay's and all the um teaser money
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: and everything on the Saints in this one. Where are
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: you right now? Saints minus three and a half and
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: we're we're kind of right there at the opener um
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: haven't haven't moved it yet. I mean, even if the
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: sharp guys take the three and a half, I don't
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: think I can move go to three on this one.
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: This might actually be another one that closes for just
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: off of public money and then the sharp guys can
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: take the plus four later in the week. So you
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: tell me to hold off. That would have bet the
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: Giants hold off. If if you're if you're gonna bet
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: the Giants, you hold off. And this Giants team we
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: just can't get a really good read on. Uh. Had
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: some real high expectations on them. Uh going into the season.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: First couple of games were a bit of a disappointment. Uh,
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: they've finally win win last week. But now they're going
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: up against the Saints team that was picked to be
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: among the top in the NFC. So, uh, this is
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: gonna be a real test for them, obviously. All Right,
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers are ten and a half point
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: favorites over the San Francisco forty Niners. Yeah, so what
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: was Jimmy Garoppolo worth? Four points? Uh? Four and a half,
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: five and a half right around there. I mean it's
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: a pretty big drop down. Um not not a lot
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: of action. I think most people know he's not playing.
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: So the people that would normally bet the Niners or
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: just want no part of the game, and everyone else
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: just feels like laying ten and a half with the
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Chargers just isn't. This will be the afternoon corner game.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: There's hardly any any action, any volume on this game whatsoever.
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: It's hard enough to lay double digits even with teams
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: like the Packers and the Vikings, but when you're laying
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: double digits on the Chargers, it just that's a tough
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: one to take. God, that's a it's horrible. But it's
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: probably the right number though, Yeah, I mean, if anything,
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: that will probably get uh some sharp plays on the
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: plus ten and a half, like you said, just on principle,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: but uh uh, you know, tens tenans right around the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: right number. I think Sunday night game Pittsburgh Steelers minus
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: three against the Baltimore Ravens seems exactly right there. I
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: can't think of a reason why the bit it does. Yeah,
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: nothing to say there. Yeah, well, you know, I really
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: felt that Pittsburgh would bounce back last week. That's why
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: you know I threw them in on my my scoots
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: for let pick. I really really liked him against Tampa
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: bay Um. I felt that the line move wasn't as
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: warranted as you know all that. Maybe we opened it
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: a half point higher last week the Pittsburgh against Tampa
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: we opened three, probably should have opened two and a half.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: But to see that four and a half five point
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: line move was just a little a little much, I know,
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's in a little disarray and still reeling from not
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: having Lady on Bell. But uh, it just took some
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: time for this this team to kind of start get clicking.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: And again that divisional game. Uh, they're both going to
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: be up for this game. We're pretty high on the
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: Baltimore team too, So, like you said, we're this line
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: was three even before Pittsburgh one last night. So the
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: only adjustment is now we're at three minus twenties, so
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: very little adjustment off of last night's game. What are
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: we gonna do about the Kansas City Chiefs is five
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: point favorites on the road at a very good Denver
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: Broncos defense, very good. Yeah, I really like the Broncos
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: here and I don't mind needing them, and we're gonna
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: need them for our lungs need for and that's saying
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: something we Yeah, we we are. This is gonna be
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: such a big game. Uh. They've been on the Chiefs
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. We we've we did well
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: on the Chiefs against the wise guys the first first
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: couple of weeks, and we talked about it last week.
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: We have the Chiefs rated pretty high. Uh, you know,
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: going into the season. We like there and Mahomes is
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: just phenomenal. He's playing so well and the public is
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: just enamored with it. Um. But there's got to be
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: some regression now and uh, this is the perfect opportunity
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: going on the road, Uh into Denver. The public is
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: going to be all over the Chiefs. I think the
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: wise guys are gonna take the Broncos. We're trying not
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: to go too high and get carried away on this one,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: so that's why we're only seeing four and a half.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: But this is just the perfect spot for the Broncos. Well,
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: I will tell you something. I just bet the Broncos
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: at plus five and a half minus one oh five.
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: I did it while you were talking. Wow, Scooch, listen,
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: it's time to play a little game that we like
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: to call scooch roulette. Talk to Dee. Tell me what
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: you think. Oh, I go first, Yeah, you go first.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: I do love the Broncos. I do love the Broncos,
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to go with the Colts against the Texans. You.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Oh no, mother Forker. I asked you if you wanted
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: to go first. Now you didn't. You said I get
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: to go first. I said, I said you can go first.
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: I get to go first. You didn't say would you
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: like to go first? Yeah, you're right, damn it. I
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: wanted that Colts game so bad. Wo wow, Because now
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking, like, am I on the Raiders? At what
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: is the Orleans posting it at right now? The famous
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Orleans minus two and a half? The Broncos are at
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: plus four and a half? Oh no, oh no, what
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: I will not bet that when I know there are
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: five and a half's available around the world. So here's
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna do. Okay, you're a three and a
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: half on the Giants. Yes, I'm not betting the Giants.
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: I will not put my lette, my life on the
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: line for the Giants. I don't want to believe you
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: took the culture. I'm taking the Raiders. Give me the
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Raiders minus two and a half book at dan O
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: two and a half? Okay, all right, nice that Listen.
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: This is a strange week. It's it you look at
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: the slate and it doesn't feel like there's a lot
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: of opportunities, and then you go through it in real
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: detail and there are a lot of opportunities here. This
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: is a this is a week for the sharps. That's
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: what this is. Well and and I know a lot
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: of dogs have covered the last couple of weeks and uh,
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: but there's a lot of home dogs that are looked
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: like to be pretty live home dogs. So um, if
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: we if we lose them all, if the favorites all win.
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: Here these short favorites mainly the uh you know the Sea,
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: the Seahawks to all the Patriots, some of these teams
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: that the Chiefs. Uh. As much as we won the
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: last two weeks, we can give it all back in
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: one week. If all these short favorites cover the Saints,
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: that's another. That's the big one. Saints against the Giants, SATs.
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be big giants for you are gonna be
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: praying get it Saints. Oh yeah, praying praying against the Saints,
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: praying against sts. Uh. Scooch, thanks for coming on your podcast.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: As everybody knows, this is the favorites from the Action Network.
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment. We will be back on Friday,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: black Jack Fletcher and I will go through the five
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: games that we are gonna pick for the Super Contest.
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: We had a winning week last week, were in two.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Thank you for listening. Rate subscribe, review unsubscribed, resubscribe and
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: join us