Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Market Crash Update📉🔥
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: A crypto crash is underway today. Let's break down everything
- 0:03Speaker 1: and that's happening to cause this. You don't want to
- 0:05Speaker 1: miss it. Let's just jump right in. I want to
- 0:07Speaker 1: thank our sponsor today, and that is Uphold. We've all
- 0:11Speaker 1: been there. Expenses pop up right when the market's starting
- 0:14Speaker 1: to heat up. It's not the right time to sell.
- 0:17Speaker 1: The last thing you want to do is sell your Bitcoin,
- 0:19Speaker 1: your ethereum, your XRP, or even your stable coin USDC.
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- 0:59Speaker 1: in just a few taps. I want to lead off
- 1:01Speaker 1: with a clip first, because there are two camps right
- 1:05Speaker 1: now in the market. One is pro economy. One is
- 1:08Speaker 1: the economy is being killed. Take a look at this.
- 1:11Speaker 2: One booming ism manufacturing number out today, fifty four point zero.
- 1:16Speaker 2: Nobody wants paying attention to that. Everybody wants to be
- 1:19Speaker 2: barrashed on the economy. They're wrong. Jobs are up, every
- 1:22Speaker 2: darn thing was up. The economy is much healthier than
- 1:25Speaker 2: people think. Everybody's pessimistic. Everybody's pessimistic. Business Arthur, Business has
- 1:30Speaker 2: never been better. Jobs are booming, business, capex, profits, productivity, Arthur.
- 1:36Speaker 2: What the heck is wrong with people? Why don't think
- 1:38Speaker 2: get it?
- 1:38Speaker 3: Stock Mark is doing well. I think the whole economy
- 1:41Speaker 3: is just poised for takeoff, Larry. The world looks really
- 1:44Speaker 3: poised to me. And I think the price of oil
- 1:45Speaker 3: is going to fall by a lot. I couldn't be
- 1:48Speaker 3: more excited than I am.
- 1:49Speaker 2: Yes, it's very very positive. Yes, the rampant pessimism, but
- 1:53Speaker 2: the numbers don't bear that out. Business is in very good,
- 2:00Speaker 2: profitable shape with lower taxes and deregulation. But look at
- 2:03Speaker 2: the numbers, Steve More, That's the point. People don't take
- 2:07Speaker 2: the time to look at the numbers.
- 2:08Speaker 4: Yeah, well we're blowing away the rest of the world too, Larry,
- 2:11Speaker 4: We're growing faster than everybody else. We are winning because
- 2:14Speaker 4: of trumpadomis no question about it. I mean, we've never
- 2:16Speaker 4: seen such an investment boom in this country maybe ever.
- 2:19Speaker 4: So even this affordability crisis, he's kind of overrated. People
- 2:23Speaker 4: have more disposable income today than ever one hundred percent.
- 2:27Speaker 3: Right.
- 2:27Speaker 4: I feel a little bit of pressure though for Kevin Warts.
- 2:30Speaker 4: He's going to have his hands full because these numbers
- 2:32Speaker 4: are just amazing.
- 2:33Speaker 2: Well that's good, you know what good? It is good.
- 2:36Speaker 3: It is good.
- 2:37Speaker 2: We're running out of time.
- 2:39Speaker 1: Okay, so what are these guys watching. Yes, of course, yes,
- 2:43Speaker 1: we're at all time high. But if you look at
- 2:45Speaker 1: this S and P. Five hundred, it is really narrowed
- 2:48Speaker 1: in on just a handful of stocks that's driving this market.
- 2:51Speaker 1: Most of this, of course, has been on the AI
- 2:54Speaker 1: side of things. You look at the risk asset side,
- 2:57Speaker 1: it's a completely different story. And I think as we
- 3:00Speaker 1: start to see energy playing into this, the real concern
- 3:03Speaker 1: is where does this play out with what's going on
- 3:06Speaker 1: in Iran. Now let's go to the other side of
- 3:09Speaker 1: the argument. This clip will get into a little bit
- 3:11Speaker 1: more about are we really close to a recession?
- 3:14Speaker 5: Take a look, so, Mark, how soon is soon? When
- 3:18Speaker 5: do we cross the line?
- 3:20Speaker 6: Well, Kayley, how about today? That would be nice. You know,
- 3:23Speaker 6: in the next few days, a couple three weeks. If
- 3:26Speaker 6: it goes on much longer than that, I suspect that
- 3:29Speaker 6: we'll see much higher oil prices than our current today.
- 3:33Speaker 6: There's we're drawing down inventory and the strategic patrolum reserve
- 3:37Speaker 6: is starting to fade, and that would be I think
- 3:40Speaker 6: enough to push the already tenuous economy into a recession.
- 3:44Speaker 6: So it's got to happen here very quickly, in the
- 3:47Speaker 6: next day, two days, three days, next week, or so
- 3:50Speaker 6: beyond that, I think we got a real problem. You know,
- 3:53Speaker 6: right now we're closer to today, we're down closer to
- 3:57Speaker 6: ninety ninety five bucks a barrow. But if we're at
- 3:58Speaker 6: one twenty five and we stay there for two three months,
- 4:02Speaker 6: that would be pretty consistent. I think by did the
- 4:04Speaker 6: arithmetic correct about five dollars scaln maybe a little bit over,
- 4:08Speaker 6: and that would at that point be enough to push
- 4:10Speaker 6: the fragile commune de recissions.
- 4:12Speaker 5: What's the thad to do if this is once again
- 4:14Speaker 5: a supply driven inflation problem that could weigh on growth.
- 4:18Speaker 6: Yeah, good point, k I don't think anyone comes to
- 4:20Speaker 6: the rescue.
- 4:21Speaker 1: Here, all right, So what they're getting at really is
- 4:24Speaker 1: all energy based. If you look at what Exxon is
- 4:27Speaker 1: now warning that oil prices could go as high as
- 4:29Speaker 1: one hundred and sixty a barrel in the coming weeks.
- 4:32Speaker 1: That's if reserves are depleted.
- 4:33Speaker 3: Now.
- 4:34Speaker 1: I don't know if that is the case, but you know,
- 4:37Speaker 1: the interesting point is is that we're going to find
- 4:39Speaker 1: out very soon. If Trump doesn't come to an agreement
- 4:42Speaker 1: at some point where the straighthor moves is freed and
- 4:45Speaker 1: we start to see something aligned in the Middle East,
- 4:48Speaker 1: do we see impact here in the US, maybe for
- 4:51Speaker 1: the first time around energy. That's the question mark, because
- 4:55Speaker 1: if that does get heavier, especially in the summer months,
- 4:58Speaker 1: this could put the US in a very precarious situation
- 5:01Speaker 1: going forward. Scott Besson, though, is kind of going the
- 5:06Speaker 1: other direction. This is the ping pong match that we're
- 5:09Speaker 1: playing with right now, both from analysts but also from
- 5:13Speaker 1: the bureaucracy inside our government. Take a look at what
- 5:16Speaker 1: Besson said.
- 5:17Speaker 7: I believe that we will get through this challenging period
- 5:22Speaker 7: now on higher prices on the other side of this,
- 5:26Speaker 7: I've said publicly that I think we'll be back to
- 5:29Speaker 7: substantial dissemplation. But most importantly, I think we've got the
- 5:34Speaker 7: worsh FED now. And look at the economy that it
- 5:38Speaker 7: is challenging now, but unemployment is still low, tax refunds
- 5:45Speaker 7: were high, and consumer spending is still quite high. So
- 5:50Speaker 7: in my private business over the years, I always looked
- 5:53Speaker 7: at what we're consumers doing, not what they were saying.
- 5:56Speaker 5: We've got the worsh FED now. Mark Zandy is what
- 5:59Speaker 5: he said, Do you believe the warsh Fed will really
- 6:01Speaker 5: treat this potential situation in differently than a power fed would?
- 6:05Speaker 2: Uh?
- 6:05Speaker 8: No.
- 6:06Speaker 6: I mean potentially a chair Walsh would vote for a
- 6:10Speaker 6: cut in that kind of scenario where things are going
- 6:13Speaker 6: south and the economy is going into recession. But I
- 6:15Speaker 6: doubt the rest of the Federal Reserve, the other folks
- 6:18Speaker 6: that are making the decision would follow suit.
- 6:21Speaker 1: All right, So not a definitely not a rate cut,
- 6:24Speaker 1: I think is where people are standing right now. The
- 6:27Speaker 1: real question is do we see a rate hike. One
- 6:28Speaker 1: thing that Besson did say, and this is the thing
- 6:31Speaker 1: that kind of confuses me, is the retail side of it.
- 6:35Speaker 1: He is right in the sense that retail has not
- 6:38Speaker 1: necessarily shown any impetus to really slow down. And I
- 6:43Speaker 1: think that if retail continues to do spending at the
- 6:47Speaker 1: rate in which they are, even with rising energy prices,
- 6:50Speaker 1: this is the thing that is a little conflated here,
- 6:52Speaker 1: I think, in how the market may play out. The
- 6:55Speaker 1: other thing that plays into this is inflation. Is this
- 6:57Speaker 1: a long term thing. Do we continue to see press
- 7:00Speaker 1: showing this because of energy or is this all related
- 7:03Speaker 1: to what's going on strictly in Iran, which I believe
- 7:05Speaker 1: it is. The real question is is that how long
- 7:08Speaker 1: does the remember supply chain shock starts to last as
- 7:12Speaker 1: it trickles down after the event is already over. That's
- 7:14Speaker 1: the more I think the bigger concern. It's exactly what
- 7:17Speaker 1: happened during the pandemic. It was the same kind of
- 7:19Speaker 1: supply chain shocks that we saw rising prices. So that
- 7:23Speaker 1: is still the issue. Right now. The SNP erases losses
- 7:27Speaker 1: and surges now to its highest level on record, sixty
- 7:30Speaker 1: nine trillion. Man sixty nine trillion. We are on the
- 7:34Speaker 1: and again this goes back into a very few number
- 7:38Speaker 1: of stocks that are driving this. Obviously we will see
- 7:41Speaker 1: the anthropic IPO coming soon. Likelihood is SpaceX right on
- 7:45Speaker 1: its heels, then you have chat or excuse me, open AI.
- 7:48Speaker 1: That of course starts to put pressure into the market.
- 7:50Speaker 1: I just wonder how much liquidity is actually there for
- 7:53Speaker 1: some of this stock market ripping off higher after a
- 7:56Speaker 1: new high. Yet more than half of the S and
- 7:58Speaker 1: P five hundred stocks are trading low. They're one hundred
- 8:01Speaker 1: day moving average. So that's my point. Most of the
- 8:04Speaker 1: socks that we're dealing with are below there one hundred
- 8:08Speaker 1: moving day average. So think about that right now. What
- 8:10Speaker 1: are you trading? Are you trading primarily at the top
- 8:13Speaker 1: of this, are you foam owing in or are you
- 8:16Speaker 1: buying dips in the crypto market? As we continue to
- 8:19Speaker 1: see these markets adjust down, including ethereum, XRP, Bitcoin, let
- 8:24Speaker 1: me know down below other things I want to hit
- 8:26Speaker 1: on right here, because bitcoin just broke below sixty nine.
- 8:29Speaker 1: It's now thirteen thousand down in the last nineteen days.
- 8:31Speaker 1: That's wiping out two hundred and twenty billion from its
- 8:34Speaker 1: market cap, and wallets around the world seven hundred and
- 8:38Speaker 1: thirty million worth of positions have been liquidated just in
- 8:42Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours, so Where does this bleeding
- 8:44Speaker 1: stop is the real question. Bitcoin, of course is being
- 8:48Speaker 1: challenged here by Peter Schiff simply saying Bitcoin continues to
- 8:51Speaker 1: melt down now breaking the sixty seven pressure will build
- 8:55Speaker 1: into Trump's bitcoin donors. Obviously, he's hitting on Trump saying
- 8:58Speaker 1: the only way out is through the strategic That is
- 9:01Speaker 1: going to be a question Republicans now must join the
- 9:03Speaker 1: Democrats in opposition to what's happening right now. I think
- 9:07Speaker 1: the real challenge that we were dealing with around bitcoin
- 9:12Speaker 1: is the issue of the liquidity drain that has been
- 9:15Speaker 1: coming out into the S and P. I do think
- 9:17Speaker 1: most market makers are in that when you talk about
- 9:20Speaker 1: new capital coming in, that's typically what drives risk markets
- 9:24Speaker 1: is new capital coming in, and that capital has of
- 9:26Speaker 1: course been displaced into what we see in the stock market.
- 9:30Speaker 1: Bitcoin ETFs also hit their lowest and longest selling streak
- 9:34Speaker 1: on record. Now, what this has recorded in the past
- 9:37Speaker 1: is most of the time when you see that kind
- 9:39Speaker 1: of movement, right there a lot of down days on
- 9:42Speaker 1: the ets for bitcoin, is it marks a bottom? So
- 9:46Speaker 1: that's the question. Is sixty seven sixty five the bottom
- 9:50Speaker 1: for bitcoin currently or do we see it slip under
- 9:54Speaker 1: a sixty K mark. We are now in the sixties.
- 9:56Speaker 1: How long does that last through June? Heavan was talking
- 9:59Speaker 1: about the when he was on last week. He sees
- 10:02Speaker 1: maybe a fifty three k down the road. The real
- 10:05Speaker 1: question is what would that do to fear and greed? Well,
- 10:07Speaker 1: right now, fear is holding and greed is holding it
- 10:09Speaker 1: twenty seven when it comes to crypto. And when you
- 10:12Speaker 1: look at that, remember, guys, we have been in the
- 10:15Speaker 1: depths of fear and greed in the past. Back in February,
- 10:20Speaker 1: that is the last time we started to see real
- 10:22Speaker 1: devastating action. And I think are we headed for that
- 10:26Speaker 1: right now? Is the question. Other things you got to consider,
- 10:29Speaker 1: is this right here, eighty eight bill erased from the
- 10:32Speaker 1: total crypto market today? Have you, guys ever seen a
- 10:35Speaker 1: red chart like that? I don't know that we've ever
- 10:39Speaker 1: seen one quite like that outside of ten ten. Malgox, though,
- 10:44Speaker 1: transferred another seven and thirty one mil and bitcoin to
- 10:46Speaker 1: a new wallet. So here we go. Bud's coming back in.
- 10:50Speaker 1: I've got a clip here and I want to go
- 10:51Speaker 1: into two things, And one, of course, is the issue
- 10:56Speaker 1: of when Sailor Strategy made their sale. Now they've done
- 11:01Speaker 1: this most recent one wasn't that much. And there's a
- 11:05Speaker 1: couple of people that I think had interesting takes on this,
- 11:08Speaker 1: because sentiment, I think is what that action drives the most.
- 11:13Speaker 1: Listen to what threat guy had to say.
- 11:15Speaker 9: It feels like the worst of both worlds, where it's
- 11:18Speaker 9: like Sailor sells and so in one hand you rip
- 11:22Speaker 9: that band aid off, but his cell is so insignificant
- 11:27Speaker 9: that you don't really get to see.
- 11:29Speaker 10: If the mark, like you don't really get to test
- 11:31Speaker 10: liquidity in the market, like he didn't sell a billion
- 11:33Speaker 10: dollars with a BTC, and so you don't really know
- 11:36Speaker 10: what's going to happen if he does sell a massive amount.
- 11:38Speaker 10: He he sold nothing, He sold like a he sold
- 11:42Speaker 10: a complete rounding error worth a bitcoin. But we're dumping
- 11:45Speaker 10: because people are like, oh my god, Saylor was selling,
- 11:47Speaker 10: And so you still have the overhang of what happens
- 11:52Speaker 10: when he sells a billion dollars and you don't actually
- 11:55Speaker 10: know nothing was accomplished. But then what happens when he
- 11:58Speaker 10: really sells I don't know, Like I feel like we
- 11:59Speaker 10: don't know what happens when he really sells Omega nuke.
- 12:02Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, so you can kind of consider what
- 12:05Speaker 1: thread guy is saying there in the sense of what
- 12:07Speaker 1: would happen if Saylor really got crazy on a drop
- 12:12Speaker 1: in terms of selling bitcoin? Valshness hits on it right here, says,
- 12:16Speaker 1: one hand, they only selled point zero zero four percent
- 12:19Speaker 1: literally of their bitcoin, so it's pretty histeronic framing, say
- 12:23Speaker 1: a U turn and I would agree. I don't know
- 12:25Speaker 1: that that was nearest case. And you can't really assume
- 12:27Speaker 1: that it was a test because it's just too small, right.
- 12:30Speaker 1: So was it just a situation where they needed a
- 12:33Speaker 1: liquidity and for whatever reason, needed it in a bitcoin
- 12:36Speaker 1: wallet to where they needed to move something around. I
- 12:39Speaker 1: don't know. But what happens if he were to actually
- 12:42Speaker 1: sell a quarter of a billion in bitcoin? What would
- 12:46Speaker 1: the market do? Is that the mega nuke that could
- 12:49Speaker 1: potentially take bitcoin down dramatically. Let me know what you
- 12:52Speaker 1: guys think is are we in for a very unusual summer,
- 12:56Speaker 1: especially with strategy at the Helm? Speaking of strategy at
- 13:00Speaker 1: the Helm, let me go to this right here, and
- 13:02Speaker 1: that is the final week to vote for their twice
- 13:05Speaker 1: weekly dividends. This is the make or break moment I
- 13:08Speaker 1: think for Stretch, which is the kind of winner take
- 13:12Speaker 1: all asset I think for master right now, and this
- 13:16Speaker 1: is going to happen. If you haven't voted already and
- 13:18Speaker 1: you want to get you know, twice monthly dividends, this
- 13:21Speaker 1: is the thing to do because River Stretch has only
- 13:23Speaker 1: been issuing dividends once monthly. If this goes through twice monthly,
- 13:27Speaker 1: I'll give you some additional trade volume. I think we
- 13:30Speaker 1: might see some more action as well on Bitcoin because
- 13:33Speaker 1: traders of course going in and out of Bitcoin on
- 13:35Speaker 1: top of this, Looking at Stretch in the market right
- 13:38Speaker 1: now with that news, and I think also with bitcoin
- 13:40Speaker 1: dropping is we've seen it dip down to ninety five,
- 13:44Speaker 1: but it's currently holding at ninety seven. We have seen
- 13:47Speaker 1: it close out at ninety three. So is that a
- 13:50Speaker 1: possibility to get a candle like this on Stretch and
- 13:54Speaker 1: see the rebound back into it. That would be nice,
- 13:58Speaker 1: a nice performance, I think in terms of getting the
- 14:00Speaker 1: dividend and also a potential value on Stretch. Are you
- 14:03Speaker 1: guys buying Stretch? Let me know in the comments if
- 14:05Speaker 1: you are. I'm kind of curious because we've had the
- 14:08Speaker 1: Stretch CEOs on before. Do you buy what they are doing?
- 14:11Speaker 1: Do you like the strategy of where this particular asset
- 14:16Speaker 1: is heading, especially around the dividends that is essentially it's paying.
- 14:20Speaker 1: Remember that's a tax free essentially tax free dividends, so
- 14:23Speaker 1: big difference there on that. Hoffman says this right here,
- 14:29Speaker 1: contrast between Bitmind and Strategy is very large. Bitmind has
- 14:33Speaker 1: no debt, no dividend obligations, positive flows on east staking.
- 14:38Speaker 1: That is true, and then Strategy is perpetually balancing capital
- 14:42Speaker 1: between stretched dividends and bitcoin purchase. So they're having to
- 14:45Speaker 1: sell a little bit to pay this guy. Maybe would say, Paul,
- 14:48Speaker 1: that sounds like a bonzie to me if you look
- 14:50Speaker 1: at it in just the bare basis of it. This
- 14:54Speaker 1: has been the question. Go back and watch our interview
- 14:56Speaker 1: with their CEO, because we asked him that heads. You know,
- 15:00Speaker 1: that's right up. You know, it looks to me like
- 15:01Speaker 1: you're barring from Peter to pay Paul here. So isn't that,
- 15:05Speaker 1: in its own right called a ponzi? I'm just kind
- 15:08Speaker 1: of curious where you guys think. But Tom Lee's next
- 15:11Speaker 1: move after buying five percent of ETH is the question
- 15:15Speaker 1: that everybody's asking. What happens after eth? He has five
- 15:19Speaker 1: percent of eth? Does he just set on it and
- 15:21Speaker 1: earn out that staking dividends or does he go into
- 15:24Speaker 1: an active mode of selling on the upside If eith
- 15:29Speaker 1: does get a wind under it and start to move,
- 15:33Speaker 1: tom Ley hits on it right here. Strategies bitcoins sale
- 15:35Speaker 1: is a classic bottom behavior. That's kind of the thing
- 15:37Speaker 1: that we were talking about with the ETF side. He says,
- 15:40Speaker 1: fears over strategies sale and record ETF outflows are not
- 15:44Speaker 1: structural threats, but signs that investors are selling during a
- 15:48Speaker 1: market reset. So there you go, guys. These guys are
- 15:51Speaker 1: saying no, but I think the market is saying we
- 15:55Speaker 1: don't know right now. Two crypto deadlines very very important.
- 16:01Speaker 1: They land in the next forty eight hours. June second,
- 16:03Speaker 1: Genius Acts stable cooin comment periods close at the Treasury,
- 16:06Speaker 1: this is the ftic and Fence end. And then June third,
- 16:10Speaker 1: the Senate floor reopens to potentially push Clarity Act forward.
- 16:14Speaker 1: So these are very critical days. Tomorrow we'll know on
- 16:18Speaker 1: Clarity if this is going to get placed in or not.
- 16:20Speaker 1: And today we'll have much more insights as to al
- 16:23Speaker 1: Genius Act is going to be laid into law going forward.
- 16:27Speaker 1: Senator Lumbus has one thing to say, We're closer to
- 16:30Speaker 1: a functioning digital ASHT market structure than ever before, So
- 16:35Speaker 1: don't flinch. Here we go. Last clip I want to
- 16:38Speaker 1: play for you, guys, is Kevin O'Leary, and he's talking
- 16:42Speaker 1: about a game changer for crypto. Take a look.
- 16:45Speaker 8: You talk to any S and P five hundred company,
- 16:48Speaker 8: Are you planning to use blockchain technology to manage inventory,
- 16:51Speaker 8: provide logistics, contract management, et cetera, et cetera, And they
- 16:54Speaker 8: all say hundred percent, say yes.
- 16:58Speaker 9: I say, really, which one? Well, we haven't.
- 17:01Speaker 8: Decided yet, And I said why have you decided? Well,
- 17:04Speaker 8: there seems to be no standard. So I think the
- 17:08Speaker 8: next big thing in crypto is which of these chains
- 17:13Speaker 8: is going to get at least one company in all
- 17:16Speaker 8: eleven sectors of the SMP, because the minute that occurs,
- 17:21Speaker 8: you want to go long that token, and so far
- 17:25Speaker 8: I haven't found it yet.
- 17:28Speaker 1: Let me end off with some breaking news here, guys,
- 17:30Speaker 1: and that of course, is that the Crypto Clarity Act
- 17:33Speaker 1: now is being added to the Senate Legislative calendar, making
- 17:37Speaker 1: it eligible keyword here is eligible for full Senate consideration
- 17:42Speaker 1: going to the floor, So doesn't mean it goes to
- 17:44Speaker 1: the floor automatically. On a certain day. It means that
- 17:46Speaker 1: it's now eligible to make its transition into the centate floor.
- 17:49Speaker 1: Still more to go. I know how this is crazy,
- 17:53Speaker 1: but this is how politics work. They have meetings about
- 17:55Speaker 1: meetings to do meetings before they do something, actually to
- 17:59Speaker 1: vote on it. So we're gonna cover this. We'll probably
- 18:01Speaker 1: hear something this week on it, so make sure it
- 18:04Speaker 1: stay tuned right here. If you like this video, hit
- 18:13Speaker 1: like and subscribe, drop a comment down below, and also
- 18:16Speaker 1: join our free private member group the links in the
- 18:19Speaker 1: description