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خلاصه کتاب ظهور و افول قدرتهای بزرگ، نوشته: پل کندی · دانشگاه صوتی چکیده ماندگار | کتاب تاریخی سیاسی

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The Rise and Fall of.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: Great Powers, Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Paul Kennedy.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: How do the great powers emerge and why do they
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: disappear after a few generations? Spain was the largest power
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: in Europe in the 16th century. The Habsburg dynasty was
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: built with marriage and wealth from.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: The mountain and the desert.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: To the Mediterranean. The core and the core of the
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: newly discovered U.S. continent reached its treasury and its army
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: simultaneously in the Netherlands, Italy, North Africa and the Mediterranean
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: were fighting. But a hundred years later, Spain was no
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: longer a power of one degree. Why? Because the wars
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: of Payape were so great that even the core of
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: the Bolivian-American Potosi mine did not give up and the.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Defeats of Payape arrived.
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: Only for the war in the Netherlands, Spain sent a
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: total of 218 million ducats. More than the entire government's
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: income from the.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: United States, which was 121 million ducats.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: The military agreements took its economic power forward and the
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: Spaniards were defeated.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Why did.
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: The Netherlands, which was the most prosperous country in Europe,
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: go out of the ranks of great powers? And why
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: did Britain, who was said to be the sun in
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: its empire, not fall, its share of world production has
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: reached less than 3% today? Paul Kennedy in this book
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: takes us on a journey in 500 years of history.
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: From the year 1500 to the beginning of the 21st century,
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: until we find the secrets of these uprisings and falls.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: If we want to say the main message of the
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: book in just one sentence, it is this.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Wealth is the backbone of the military power.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: But when the military agreements and the direction of a
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: power go beyond its economic power, that power.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Is slowly torn apart and goes away.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: Kennedy calls this situation the imperial over-stretch. And in long-term wars,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: usually someone wins who has more powerful production. Kennedy asked
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: this question in 1987 about the United States. Does the
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: heavy burden of global agreements and military treasures lead the
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: United States to the same path of great powers? And
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: today we can ask the same question about the future
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: of global balance and China's position. Hello, I am Esfandiar Khudai.
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: In the days when our Iran is more than ever
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: in need of knowledge and imagination, at the Soti University
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: of Chekideh Mandegar, every week we summarize an important book
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: on history and politics in the shortest possible time. Books
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: that you may not have the opportunity to read. This
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: is the 41st book of this journey. The appearance and
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: fall of great powers is written by Paul Kennedy. Let's
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: go to the author of the book.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Paul Kennedy, British historian in 1945 in England.
• 4:18
  Speaker 2: Von Zbeck, a small town in northern England, came to
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: the world. He studied at Newcastle University and then at
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: Oxford University and since 1983 he has been a professor
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: of Yale University in the United States.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: He wrote two important books.
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: About Britain before this book. One is about the emergence
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: and fall of the British sea and the other is
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: about the enemy's ties between England and Germany. That is,
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: it has a power that has taken over the sea
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: and a resistance that has led to world war. The
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: story of this book starts from a short article. In 1833,
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: about 200 years ago, Leopold von Ranke Mubarikh Bozorg Perusi
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: wrote the article with the title of Great Powers and
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: refuted the power of the Spaniards.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Kennedy wanted to.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Take the same approach and write a short book. But
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: when he presented the first chapter for the audience and
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: in the speeches, most of the readers and listeners asked
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: for more details.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: The reason was clear.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: The economic diplomats had well-equipped this square and the military
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: diplomats did not.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Kennedy filled this gap.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: The book was published in 1987 and a year later,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: a wide discussion was held about America's success.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: The time also helped.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: America, which was the world's largest investor, has now become
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: the world's largest investor. The competition with Japan was high
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: and the council was still in place. In a summary
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: of this book, Michael Howard, a British historian and professor
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: at Oxford University, writes in the New York Times that
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: This book has a very high scope and when the accurate,
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: precise and accurate revelation of the issues of the day
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: reflects the history of the past, its result is our
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: understanding of history. James Joule in the New York Review
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: of Books read it as an important, global and clear
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: book that covered the problems of today Christopher Hitchens wrote
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: in his time of publication that this book should be
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: seen in the shelves of Washington's positions to learn from
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: the history of the emergence of great powers. The book
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: of the emergence and emergence of great powers For a
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: long time, it remained among the most popular non-fiction books.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: The first season was the beginning of Europe in 1420.
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: During the Ming Dynasty, China had a fleet of 1,350 warships.
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: 400 of them were shipwrecks. Dariusalar, Chenghu, Between 1405 and 1433,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: he made seven great sea trips, sometimes with hundreds of
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: boats and tens of thousands of people, to Ceylon, India,
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: the mouth of the Red Sea and the eastern coast
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: of Africa. From Africa, they brought shipments for the Chinese Empire.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Kennedy writes that China could travel around Africa But the
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: journey of 1433 was the last mission of Cheng Hu.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: The emperor, with one order, prevented the construction of Ogyanus
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Pima and buried the Chinese ship in Bandar. The reason
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: was obviously reasonable. The danger of the Mughals in the
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: north and the war of Porehazine in Vietnam. However, these
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: matters had other aspects as well. The Confucius's New Year's
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: Eve was preferable for the future and was bad for
• 8:57
  Speaker 2: trade and private capital. In China, every important project, from
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: the Great Wall to the Sea Wall, began with the
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: government's order and ended without the government's attention.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: China was not left behind.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: In the 11th century, it produced about 125,000 tons of iron,
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: more than the British produced at the beginning of the
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: Industrial Revolution of the 7th century AD.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: However, in 1736, when the.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: Iron factories of England were in decline, the high prices
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: of the northern part of China became obsolete forever. In
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: the year 1500, no one yet believed that Europe would
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: be annexed to the world in the future. China's population
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: was 100 to 130 million people and Europe was 50
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: to 55 million people. Constantinople was in the hands of
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: the Ottomans since 1453 and the popes were afraid of
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: a similar fate for the Romans. In the 16th century,
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: the fastest power in the world was the Muslims. Sultan
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: Osmani ruled over 14 million people, Spain had 5 million
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: and England had 2.5 million people. The Ottomans had captured
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: Hungary and had besieged Vienna in 1529. In Iran, the Safavids,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: especially during the time of Shah Ismail and Shah Abbas,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: had reached the peak of power and culture.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: In India, Babur founded the Burkhani Empire. So what happened?
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: The Ottomans found more than their power. The army of
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: this government in Central Europe, in the Mediterranean, the troops
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: in North Africa, the Shia and Sunni struggle was always
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: open and Shah Abbas was even ready to unite with
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: the Europeans.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Against the Ottomans.
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: But Kennedy says the Ottoman regime was more important than
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: all of them. It was a centralized government that was
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: hostile to entrepreneurship and trade. The printing house was banned
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: because it was possible to spread dangerous Western trends. In 1580,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: the central government of the Yenichiris in Constantinople was defeated
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: by the Tauan. In the Gurkhani India, Maliyat Setani was
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: such a tyrant that they called him a glutton. Japan
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: in 1636 banned the construction of the ship Iguianus Pema
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: because the government was afraid of the power of trade,
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: so it limited trade with Europe to a Dutch ship.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Now why did Europe go the other way?
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: The Canadian answer is one thing, a few hills, mountains,
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: The forests, rivers and lakes had divided Europe into separate
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: units and no one could separate them. Europe's trade was
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: mostly heavy goods such as wood, coal, wine and coal
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: that were transported from water. This trade brought trust and
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: trust and sovereignty. Since there was no single center, in Europe,
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: if a region of merchants received heavy taxes, trade would
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: be transferred to the neighboring and neighboring countries. And if
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: a king did not sell his property to a trader,
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: he would face a difficult future war. The constant competition
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: between European governments also led to a military rivalry. The
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Italians made new reforms that reduced the impact of the bomb.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: As a result, the cities became more resistant and no
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: power was able to conquer all of Europe. In the sea,
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: bomb-powered boats arrived and destroyed most of Europe's military. Three
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: things created the European miracle together. A relatively free economy,
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: the existence of several rival governments instead of a single
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: central power and.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: More freedom of thought.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: Why in Europe, for example, if a scientist felt insecure
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: in a region, he could easily go to the neighboring
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: region and write in peace. The greatest advantage of Europe
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: was that it had fewer conditions for development, especially since
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: it was not a central power, which stops everything with
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: one command, like the Chinese ship that stopped with one
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: command of the emperor. The message of this century was
• 14:16
  Speaker 2: not because Europe was more advanced than the beginning, but
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: because it was not a united government that defeated the enemy.
• 14:28
  Speaker 2: The forces that gathered power in one center, such as China, Ottoman, Indian, Gurkhani,
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: Iran and Japan preferred unity over division, competition and rebellion.
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: If you.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: Ask a European, the most powerful man in the world
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: is who? Everyone says the same name. Charles V of
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: the Spanish Habsburg family. He had four crowns on the
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: way of marriage and marriage. Spain, Holland and the Austrian lands. Later,
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Hungary and Bohemia were added to them. His pen was
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: drawn from Jabal al-Tariq to Hungary and from Sicily to Amsterdam.
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: And about a quarter of the people of Europe were
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: under the command of this family. Nugre and the American
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: army were his treasures, and the Spanish army was the
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: best army in Europe. His battalions were united under the
• 15:44
  Speaker 2: name of Tersio, an army of up to 3,000 men
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: from Neyzedar, Shamshirzan and Tofanchi. Until the middle of the
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: 30-year war, Tersio was the most effective one of the
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: battlefields of Europe. With all this, Approximately 150 years later,
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: in 1659, the Spaniards were defeated and defeated, and the
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: will of the authority over Europe was forever lost.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: But why were they all at war?
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: There were two main reasons. First, religious rivalries that had
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: divided Europe after the Protestant reforms.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Second, the fear of the Habsburgs' authority.
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: France and other powers feared that Charles V would take
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: over the whole empire. These reunions eventually led to the wars.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Of the 30s, 1618 to 1648.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: Kennedy did not pursue personal affairs such as the error
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: of such and such king or the incompetence of such
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: and such king. His answer is simple, the cost of
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: wars had taken advantage of their income. These changes were
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: found very quickly. Charles V, when he took over, placed
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: about 20 million ducats in debt for his son Philip II.
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: Until 1543, close to two-thirds of the Spanish government's average
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: income was only spent on debt. In 1557, the Spanish
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: emperor declared defeat. In the same year, France, its main rival,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: was also defeated. On both sides, not because of fatigue,
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: but because of the absence of a treasury, in 1559,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: they sat at the bottom of the Cateau Camberzi table.
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: But Philip II did not have the opportunity to breathe.
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: Since the Habsburgs had several big goals at the same time,
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: such as preserving and expanding Qalamrov, defending the Catholic religion
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: against the Protestants and fighting the Ottomans. The result was
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: that they were captured in several places. Ottoman in the east,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: German Protestants, Dutch rebels, England and France. Every time they
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: fought with one, another was ready to fight. It was
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: the worst part of the Netherlands. One of the Spanish
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: negotiators wrote that the Netherlands war was the reason for
• 18:34
  Speaker 2: the complete destruction of this kingdom. Because between the years
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: 1566 to 1654, the Spaniards sent 118 million ducats only
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: for their army in the Netherlands. More than all the
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: money that was taken from the United States at that time.
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: The Spanish economy was small for this heavy bar. The
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: main war bar was on the coast of the Castile region,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: in the center of Spain, with about 6 million people.
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: The United States only made one-fourth to one-third of the
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: cost of the Castile. The government weakened this bar. The
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: Jews and then the Moriscos, that is, the Muslims of Christ,
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: who were the pioneers of the industrialists, were expelled.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: The defeat.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Of the Habsburgs was partial. We said that France was
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: also defeated. The Soviets also attacked Germany to secure its
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: army budget. Because of the 30-year wars, all the powers
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: had advanced to the front line. The Netherlands was better
• 19:46
  Speaker 2: than the rest of the world. Because Amsterdam is the
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: financial center of Europe. capital and a state that was
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: in danger at the time was getting more and more valuable.
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: In the end, in 1648, the Westphalian peace ended the
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: three-year war and a few years later the Spaniards defeated them.
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: The importance of the Westphalian peace was that for the
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: first time the origin of the sovereignty of the countries
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: on their own land was officially recognized. Europe remained a
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: few levels and no other nation could be armed on
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: all sides. Long and expensive wars forced the governments to
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: build more organized and wealthy colonies. The main map of
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: money and geography in the European wars.
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: 1660 to 1815. In the previous century, we saw how
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: Spain got tired of war.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Now it was the turn of the Netherlands. The Netherlands,
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: with all its wealth, was under pressure from both sides.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: From the sea and from the drought. When Louis XIV,
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: the French emperor, attacked from Khushki, the Netherlands was defeated
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: and an army of 93,000 people was formed. About three-fourths
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: of its budget was spent on the ground army and
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: its ship was unnoticed. It was this opportunity that Britain
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: gained wealth and took the place of the Netherlands in
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: the sea. Now two powers, namely Spain and the Netherlands,
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: left the first level.
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: There were five powers.
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: Left on the scene France, Britain, Russia, Austria and Prussia
• 22:08
  Speaker 2: or Germany The great war between France and Britain went
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: on from 1689 to 1815 Kennedy called them the straight
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: wars That is, the winner was the one who brought
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: more progress But what made progress? Kennedy says two things
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: Money and Geography First, money. Britain had a hidden rival, trust.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: In 1694, the Bank of England was established and the
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: parliament guaranteed that the government's debts would be repaid. This
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: led to investors thinking that they could easily lend money
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: to the British government and keep the sea level low. France, however,
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: was exactly the opposite and did not make a good
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: impression on the waves and went up the waves. In
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: the year 1780, the national debt of the two countries
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: was almost equal, about 215 million pounds. But France paid
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: 14 million pounds annually, almost two times that of Britain.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: In addition, because in France they collected taxes on average,
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: Britain had so much confidence that it could win the.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: War of others.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: Frederick the Great, the king of Prussia, took 675,000 pounds
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: from Britain every year from 1757 to 1760 and only
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: in 1813 did Britain 11 million pounds was given to
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: its allies to fight with France instead.
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: Now the second geography. But money was not everything. Why?
• 24:09
  Speaker 2: Because, for example, Amsterdam was the largest financial center and
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: with its existence, the Netherlands collapsed. So here the geography
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: comes in. Britain and Russia were the neighboring powers. They
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: were far from the heart of Europe and were not
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: always in the attack. But France was caught in that
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: middle and was forced to have both a large army
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: and a navy. For this reason, in the early 18th
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: century wars, France spent less than 10% of its budget
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: on the navy, while Britain allocated 35% to the navy.
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: and this was the symbol of the success of the
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: rest of England. Britain used this advantage wisely. It never
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: fought only by sea. Its way was to move the
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: French with money and ships to France, so that France
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: would remain busy and busy. With this policy, it won
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: the Seven Years' War, and was annexed to India and
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: North America. But in the war of independence of America,
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: he did not have an alliance with Britain and was
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: defeated there.
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: And finally, Napoleon. He tried to bind the European capital
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: with the British system.
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: This policy hit Britain, but Britain found new markets in
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: the heart of its industrial revolution. and its exports reached
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: a record of 48 million pounds in 1810. But the
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: French Napoleon himself became more and more occupied. Until 1811,
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: about 353,000 French soldiers were occupied in Spain during the
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: Fourth World War. When it attacked Russia in 1812, its
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: large army was more than 600,000 people. But less than
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: half of them were French and the majority of their
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: forces were still in Spain. The Russian capital, the Moscow resistance,
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: finished the operation with the attack of the Cossacks. Approximately 270,000
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: were killed and 200,000 prisoners from the Napoleon army. When
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: the heart of the Napoleon army was destroyed in Russia, Russia, Persia,
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: Sweden and Austria.
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: United with each other.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: But this union did not continue without the money of Britain.
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: Britain only spent 11 million pounds on its allies in
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: 1813 to.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Prepare their armies against France.
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: They defeated France in Leipzig in 1813. And in 1815,
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: Naplon in Waterloo, Belgium, lost forever.
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: The message of the century.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: In long wars, the winner is the one who takes
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: the most valuable and sustainable win and allows his geographies
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: to limit his military agreements. And Britain had both, both
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: geographies and money. Fasle Chaharom Sanati Shodan Wa Taghir Muvazenaha
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Jehani Sale 1851 Dar Landan Nemayeshgahi Dar Sagtamani Azeem Wa
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: Shisheyi Be Name Kristal Palas Pishraft Sanati Britania Ro Be
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: Nemayesh Gozashd Charles Kingsley Keshish Wa Nevisande Englisi Az Didanash
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: Az Gurur Ashk Miricht Hak Dashd Britain's industrial production reached
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: from 1.9% in 1760 to nearly 20% in 1860, that is,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: a year later. In the same year, Britain produced 53%
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: of the world's coal and 50% of the world's coal,
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: with only 2% of the world's population. After the defeat
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: of Napoleon in the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, more
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: than half a century of equality between European powers was
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: in place. But the war between Europeans and Americans became
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: more intense against the less advanced youth. Those youths were
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: weak because they could not compete with Western industrial weapons
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: and could not fight with Western military forces. It is
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: interesting that the British army was not built with a
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: large army. The British army and the British navy only
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: took 2-3% of the national production. Adam Smith, a well-known economist,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: says that the army and the navy are necessary for defense,
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: but they do not serve as a workshop or farm. Therefore,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: it is necessary to build a large army and the British,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: like any civilization, had a place in the U.S. 1853-56,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Russia defeated Britain, France and the Ottomans. The south of
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: Moscow was not a road and the Arabian Peninsula.
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: They hit the Russian border. The United Forces arrived with.
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: A boat in three weeks, but the Russian forces were
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: sometimes three months on the way. In the war in America,
• 30:10
  Speaker 2: the north had 22,000 miles of road and the south
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: only 9,000 miles. And the north made about 1.7 million guns.
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: In all these wars, the result was the same. In
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: industrial wars, the production of more wins. But the most
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: important story of this century is the German Union.
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: Germany was in a mess. Pruss, led by.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: Bismarck, the great president, wanted to unite the German rebels
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: under one banner. Pruss had the whole state. that is,
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: officers who played a role before the war. The rule
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: of this state was with Helmut von Moltke. Moltke was
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: a man who was called the brain of the Prussian army.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: In 1866, Bismarck worked with diplomacy that did not involve
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: any great power. Moltke defeated three armies from three routes
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: to Bohemerson and Austria. In 1870, Bismarck took France to
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: war and the French army was surrendered in Sedan. Napoleon III,
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: the French emperor, was captured and his government collapsed.
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: Germany was united.
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: According to the famous saying of that day, Europe gave
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: up love, and found new slaves. Diplomats said that all
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: roads to Berlin were closed. Kennedy said that in all
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: these wars there was someone who had not been defeated
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: by the 19th century's military revolution. Fresh weapons, larger armies,
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: telegraph and artificial infrastructure to secure all of these. Britain
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: reached its peak in 1860. But the point is that
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: San'at reached its goal. 4. San'at brought.
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Britain to the top.
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: But San'at did not remain in the control of any country,
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: including Britain. Any nation that had the will and ability
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: could take it. And Britain's goals were getting closer one
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: by one. Like Germany, Japan, America and today China.
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: Fifth season. The emergence.
• 33:01
  Speaker 2: Of a two-dimensional world and the emergence of middle powers.
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: I mean the.
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: Emergence of America and Russia and the emergence of European
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: powers such as Britain, Germany and France.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Winter of 1885.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: In Berlin, the great European powers gathered together to agree
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: on the division of Africa. Japan has no presence and
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: the United States has only come there for commercial purposes.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: Kennedy considers this conference to be a symbol of the
• 33:40
  Speaker 2: old Europe. Thirty years later, this part of Europe betrayed
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: itself in the First World War. And 30 years after that,
• 33:52
  Speaker 2: the world's capital was in Washington and Moscow, not.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: In Europe, in London, Paris or Berlin.
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: Apparently, Europe was still dependent on the world, but in fact,
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: the balance of power was fast changing. The British government,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: from the production of the world's industry, from 23% in
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: the year 1880 to 13% in the year 1913. Its
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: share of global trade also decreased from 23% to 14%. Britain,
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: which was once called the world's factory, not because its
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: industry stopped, but because others grew faster, fell short. Germany
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: made more of this change. Germany's share of the world's
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: industrial production increased by 14.8%, more than Britain's and 2.5%
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: of France's. Germany's production in 1914 was more than the
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: total production of Britain, France and Russia. The level of
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: production also had a noticeable difference. Az har hezar sarbaz
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: tazevare dar Alman fagat yek nafar bisawad boud. Dar hali
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: ke dar Italia 330 nafar wa dar Otrish Majaristan 220 nafar.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Ama mohemtarin tahawol zuhure do ghoul gharai boud.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: Amerika wa Rusiye.
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: Amerika tagrivan hameye mazayai ro ke digaran naqis dastan yek
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: ja dast. It had only about 3 million workers, i.e. 1.7%
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: of its population. In 1900, Britain still had the largest
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: empire in history. But the protection of this empire became
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: more and more difficult and costly every day. In such
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: an atmosphere, fixed and competitive alliances caused the.
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: First World War.
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: They all waited for a short war. But the existence
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: of unions made the war a struggle.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Because every country, in the hope of the help of
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: its allies, even by emptying the treasury, continued the war.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: The war turned into a challenge of resources and independence.
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: Germany was able to defeat Russia.
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: Then, in 1918, German General Ludendorff Hamalat-e-Nahai was launched towards Paris,
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: but the same Gourouramiz attack completely defeated the German army
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: and left no trace for it. The entry of the
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: United States returned the balance to.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: A certain degree.
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: Kennedy's numbers are clear. The Allies, that is, Britain, France,
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: Russia spent about $ 57 billion and 40 million people were besieged.
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: But the United States, that is, Germany and Austria, only
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: $ 24 billion and 25 million people. Kennedy does not say
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: that the result was predetermined. Courage and skill were present
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: on both sides, but the overall path of the war was.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: With production facilities on all sides.
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: In the end, only two countries emerged stronger from the war,
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: the United States and Japan. The message of the 5th century,
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: the middle powers of Europe, together with two bitter words,
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: the United States and Russia became smaller day by day
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: and the First World War revealed this reality. Season 6
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: This is the continuation of the 5th season of the
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: emergence of a two-stage world and the emergence of the
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: Middle Powers from 1919 to 1942. The first world war
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: that ended, the European map fell apart. Three great empires
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: of Austria-Hungary, Germany.
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: And the Russian Empire fell apart. Europe had nearly 12,500
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: miles of fresh land and instead of 14 national dollars,
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: 27 different dollars. The economy was divided.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: There was a factory in one country and a coal
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: mine in another country. The world order was not in
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: place either. The United States was one of the and
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: the collapse of its core in another country. The world
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: order was also not in its present form. The United
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: States had withdrawn from the national community and the Soviet
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: Union was also at a disadvantage due to the communist
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: revolution and fear of confrontation with the liberal West. But
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: these two countries quickly became stronger. Kennedy says that the
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: real power and political role هیچ وقت تا این حد
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: از هم دور نبوده. دو قول کنار گود استاده بودن
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: و قدرتهای میانی داخل گود با هم می جنگیدن. Kennedy
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: قدرتها رو به دو بخش تقسیم می کنه. اول اونایی
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: که وزع موجود رو قبول نداشتن. ایتالیا اقتصاد زعيفی داشت.
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: از وزع موجود ناراضی بود. جاپون از سال 1931 It
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: had become so serious that by the end of 1930,
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: 70% of its budget was spent on the army.
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: The Japanese Navy estimated.
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: That its fleet in 1941 was about 70% of the
• 40:31
  Speaker 2: American fleet. But with the attention to the speed of
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: the American ship's growth, as this distance increased every year,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: So Japan had to fight faster. When the United States
• 40:52
  Speaker 2: seized Japan's deposits in 1941 and cut off Japan's oil exports,
• 40:56
  Speaker 2: this country either surrendered or used South Asian oil, which
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: means hitting Pearl Harbor. Hitler's Germany also had a large army. However,
• 41:15
  Speaker 2: there were few agricultural and motor vehicles and its economy
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: needed to continue the fresh conquest. The second group of
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: countries were those who wanted to preserve the current situation.
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: Among them was Britain, which had a ten-year rule until 1932,
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: which meant that the war would not be great until
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: the next ten years. When Japan attacked Manchuria, this rule
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: was abolished, but the treasury also took advantage of the
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: defense budget. As a result, in 1929, Britain had a
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: fourth of the world's GDP, but only 9 to 10
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: percent of the world's industrial power. Its markets were bigger
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: than its economic power. the same more extensive theory that
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: the whole book talks about. France also had a two-part
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: economy and a two-part society, because the long economic recession
• 42:27
  Speaker 2: of 1930 and the civil war between the left and
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the right-wing government had defeated the government. And precisely these
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: weaknesses caused Germany and Japan to be brave. Hitler defeated
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: each and every country in Europe, and Japan also advanced.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: In Asia.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: The point of attack was December 1941. The Soviet attack
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: near Moscow stopped Hitler's rapid victory. At the same time,
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Japan attacked Pearl Harbor and the United States entered the war.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: Tocqueville's advance....
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: When America entered World War II, Churchill became happy. He
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: said that Hitler, Mussolini and Japan had died and the
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: rest was just to get the right of this great force.
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: In 1942, these beliefs came to light. Because Japan was
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: armed with Aram and Rommel was a German general up
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: to 55 miles from Alexandria. But Churchill was right. In
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: the battle of Al-Al-Main in the desert of Egypt, the
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: British commander had six pairs of German tanks and three
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: pairs of armored forces. Kennedy says he once again took
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: a side in a long and controversial war that had
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: the most valuable.
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: Piece of money.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: After the war, the U.S. military program wrote that the
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: world is changing so much that this change is only
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: comparable to the fall of Rome. Germany and Italy had
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: been defeated. France had gone to the side. Britain was
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: destroyed and only the U.S. and the Soviet Union remained.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: But Kennedy noticed that the power of the U.S. in
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: 1945 was extremely high. either in the liberal American bloc
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: or in the communist conservative bloc.
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: Nakhistin Rouyaroui fled from Europe to Iran.
• 46:14
  Speaker 2: Iran was occupied by the Allies in 1941 and Reza
• 46:17
  Speaker 2: Shah had fallen. When Moscow did not expel its troops
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: from Iran in 1946 and supported the separation of Azerbaijan,
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: The Tehran government strongly objected. The Shoravi forces finally left
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: Iran and the Iranian army, apart from the Taliban of
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: Azerbaijan and the Tudeh party, was suppressed. Washington was satisfied
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: and the belief of the Tehran to speak harshly to
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: Shoravi was strengthened. This incident, according to a journalist, showed
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: Mahar before the official announcement of Dr.
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: Mahar.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: Iran later became a part of Baghdad in 1955, a
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: part of which the United States supported and its goal
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: was to confront the influence of communism.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Now, what happened to Europe?
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: In the eyes of the regime, it was a two-tiered world.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: In 1974, the Soviet Union defended 109 billion dollars and
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: the United States defended 85 billion dollars. China defended 26
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: billion dollars and Britain and France each less than.
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: $ 14 billion.
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: But from a political point of view, progress has been made.
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: The most important of them was the separation of China
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: and the Soviet Union, which Kennedy calls the most important
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: milestone of the path of the post-1945. Two communist countries
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: that were united until yesterday are now on top of
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: each other. De Gaulle said, The French leader also strongly
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: opposed the US government and pulled France out of NATO's
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: control to show the independence of Europe. The third world
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: countries also had their own special situations. For example, in 1972, Sadat,
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: the president of Egypt, expelled 21,000 military commanders from his
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: country and separated from the Soviet Union. And Shouravi himself,
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: with his entry to Czechoslovakia, Lahti and Afghanistan, took control
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: of it near the third world countries. Behind these changes
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: was economic change. Nixon said in 1971 that five powers
• 48:43
  Speaker 2: determine the world's economic center. Western Europe, Japan, China, Shouravi
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: and the United States. Kennedy shows that the world's industrial
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: production between 1952 to 1975 rose by about 6% every year.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: Japan and China have been able to survive. The share
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: of the European Union has decreased, the share of the
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: Soviet Union remained stable and then fell, and the share
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: of the United States came down faster. came down faster,
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: although it was still the largest.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: Until 1980, the world's economy had become several levels.
• 49:29
  Speaker 2: The message of the seventh century. From the point of
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: view of the regime, the world was two levels after
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: World War II, but from the point of view of
• 49:37
  Speaker 2: the economy, it had become several levels. and to the
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: Canadian expression, the unbalanced rise of economies soon or soon
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: replaces the political and military balance.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: The book's author's.
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: Line shows that he is waiting for the emergence of
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: a world of several levels in 1980, while we went
• 49:53
  Speaker 2: to a one-level world with Shouravi's prophecy.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: EIGHTH SEASON, THE END OF THE TWENTY-ONE CENTURY.
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: Kennedy from that beginning says that this era is not history.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: It is a preview and it is possible that an
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: unexpected accident will come out of the water.
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: He assumes that.
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: Those forces that have been taking power up and down
• 50:22
  Speaker 2: for 500 years are still working. The rise of unequal
• 50:26
  Speaker 2: economies and the daily cost of arms. The example of
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: light is Asia. The share of Asian countries has increased
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: from 7% in 1960 to 16% in 1982, and until 2000,
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: it will probably increase by 20%. After that, the question
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: of the whole book is asked by every power.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Can it defend Shouravi, Vietnam, Israel, Iran and Iraq in
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: its long war.
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: According to Kennedy, these countries are seeing a lot of
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: these developments from the production of solomons. China is closer
• 51:46
  Speaker 2: to the trade route. The army's share of China's national
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: production reached 17% in 1971.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: And 7.5% in 1985.
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: Which, according to Kennedy, is the most important sign of
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: China's complete agreement on economic growth. Economist has calculated that
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: if China's annual growth remains 8%, it will move forward
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: from Britain and Italy before 2000. But Kennedy is aware
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: that China does not have enough money to always remain
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: a strong and profitable trader. The bigger its economy gets,
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: the bigger its political and military events will be. Japan
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: was the largest country in the world in 1985, but
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: its security is dependent on the United States. Tokyo is
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: trying to keep the defense budget to a place where
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: it has nothing to do with Washington. This is the
• 52:51
  Speaker 2: same Japanese conspiracy. Serwat-e-Azim, without the support of the independent
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: regime and Europe, is the largest trade bloc in the world.
• 53:05
  Speaker 2: But it is only a bloc that is not a
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: single state. Therefore, its wealth will not be easily converted
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: to the power of the way.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Shoravi is the opposite of Japan. A great army and
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: an economy that remains behind. Gurbachev?
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: In 1986, he confessed in the Congress of the Party
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: that since 1970, the economic growth of Shoravi has been clear.
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: A Russian economist says that the policy of top, bottom
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: and growth is no longer possible. That is, Shoravi cannot
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: have a large army at the same time and ensure
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: the well-being of the people and increase their economy. And
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: Shouravi is like the Austrian-Majoristan before 1914, with the nationalities
• 54:01
  Speaker 2: also on the front line. However, Kennedy says that this
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: does not mean.
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: The proximity of Shouravi.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: He reminds us that none of the multi-national empires of
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: this book, that is, Ottoman, Spanish, French, Napoleon and Britain,
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: Kennedy writes, The map of the U.S. military bases in
• 55:18
  Speaker 2: the world is on the verge of expansion for a century,
• 55:22
  Speaker 2: similar to the network of British bases and fighters.
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Economic signs were also unpleasant. The Reagan administration in.
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: The first round gave more than 75% of the Carter
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: administration for 9-pool airplanes, but only 9% of the airplanes
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: were delivered. And the United States, in the course of
• 55:50
  Speaker 2: a few years, has turned from the world's largest carrier
• 55:54
  Speaker 2: to the world's largest carrier. With this, Kennedy is likely
• 55:58
  Speaker 2: to increase the number of problems in the United States
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: from Spain or Britain. And the light of the world
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: is not working for the United States. Rahal is seen
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: in the sentence of Walter Liebman, an American journalist, that
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: agreements and agreements.
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: Must be balanced.
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: The last message of the last century is that any
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: great power, whether it is a trader or a warlord,
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: must eventually establish a balance between today's security and tomorrow's
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: economic end. And America is not separate from this rule.
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: But the criticism is about the book of the emergence
• 56:47
  Speaker 2: and emergence of great powers. The book of Paul Kennedy
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: was published in the same year and was discussed. Here
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: we will review three important criticisms and answer each one
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: of them with the attention of the book. The first
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: criticism is that the emergence.
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: Of the United States is a failure.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: Joseph Nye, Harvard University professor, in his book, The Commandment
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: of the Leader, 1990, He wrote that the U.S. share
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: of world production is about 15 years, which is 23% remaining,
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: and in his interpretation, the U.S. is a corrupt country
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: that acts poor. Susan Strange also said in 1987 that
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: the U.S. still has the power of construction. It determines
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: the rules of play in security, production, finance and science.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: And Samuel Huntington in 1988 reminded that this is the
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: fifth wave of superstition since the 1950s. Sputnik, that first
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: council meeting that was held, some say the American superstition
• 57:52
  Speaker 2: has reached. After that, Vietnam, after the oil crisis and
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: Arab sanctions, and now Japan. Every time they say America
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: is in a state of superstition and we saw that
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: it was not. In response, Kennedy never said that the
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: United States was falling. In the book, it was written
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: that the United States was in the midst of a
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: major danger, and not necessarily. The United States is also
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: called a player. Kennedy wrote in 1990 that this danger
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: would only happen if the United States did not replace
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: its priorities.
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: And two years later, it is known how many ups
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: and downs have taken place. Despite all these disputes, if
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: we look.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: At the situation in the United States today, it seems
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: that Kennedy's achievements in 1987 were not in vain. Although
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: the Soviet monopoly a decade later and the collapse of
• 58:50
  Speaker 2: the world and the collapse of a universal power for
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: the United.
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: States did not place this superpower before this threat. Kennedy.
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: In 1987 warned that America is in the midst of
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: the empire's expansion and today these signs are brighter. I
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: say these from myself, God's Spaniard. While China is a
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: few decades away from a high economic growth, the U.S.
• 59:34
  Speaker 2: has been in the middle of many ups and downs.
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: From September 11 to the Afghanistan and especially Iraq War,
• 59:43
  Speaker 2: to the military interventions in Syria and Libya, the Palestinian-Israeli war,
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: the last war with Iran and the long-term war with Ukraine,
• 59:55
  Speaker 2: Even the war of introduction with Europe, Canada, India, Japan
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: and others that caused the United States to distance itself
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: from it, in contrast to China, has become a peaceful
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: and focused policy on the principles of free market and
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: economic growth. The cost of all this military presence of
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: the United States in different places and different locations and
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: different interventions for the United States is overwhelming. $ 8 trillion
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: for the post-September and annual war and $ 1.
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 1: Trillion for the US defense budget.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: This situation has made the world's public opinion against the US.
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: Kennedy has made an important factor in the US policy
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: in his book. The pressure of the lobbyists, as well
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: as the lobbyists of Israel and the lobbyists of the
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: nuclear industry, which are establishing full-fledged agreements for the United States,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: none of the powers that this book has been addressing
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 2: in the last 500 years have faced the issue of
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: the lobbyists. However, we, like Kennedy, do not know the
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: fate of the United States, but the rise of economic
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: growth of powers such as China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: and the European Union and countries such as BRICS and
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: Shanghai are in the process of changing the one-party system.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: If the U.S.
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: Cannot create a balance between its agreements and its economic
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: power and the U.S. debt that today has exceeded $ 41 trillion,
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: it cannot continue for a long time. And if the
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: United States fails to reach a balance, the fate of
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: Spain and Britain will not be the same. Second, the
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: progress did not come out of thin air. Critics say
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 2: that Kennedy did not advance the speed of the Soviet revolution,
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: nor did he advance the United States in the 1990s
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: after the Soviet revolution. Some also said that his vision
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: is weak, that is, Kennedy takes the choice and chance less.
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 2: In return, some of the criticism is true, Kennedy saw
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: the promotion of Shoravi, but did not prevent the promotion
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: of Nagahani. But in the book it was written clearly
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: that it should not result in Shoravi not continuing much
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: and the last season itself is not ahead of him.
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: The third point is that the book is European and single-minded.
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: Jeremy Black, a British historian, says in a book in 2008,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: that the book of Kennedy is European and Anglo-American. China,
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: the Ottomans, the Iranians and the Indians have remained great
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 2: powers for centuries and the expansion is not the only
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: cause of their fall. Britannia, in the French wars, may
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: have been more powerful than any other power, but at.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: That time, why didn't it sell?
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: In return, Kennedy admits in the preface that his book
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: in the Middle Ages was Europe's best. And in 1990,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: he explained his view on the difference between resources and agreements,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: not just the military budget. The United States and its
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: army were at the same time fighting on several fronts.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: Only for the war in the Netherlands, the Spaniards spent
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: close to two-thirds of their total income from the United States.
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: A few decades later, this power was exhausted. Not because
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: it was weak, but because its agreement was ahead of
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: its economic power. Kennedy summarizes 500 years in one sentence.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: The economic growth of countries is not one-sided and power
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 2: is always relative. If your rivals grow faster, even with
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: your own growth, you will still be behind. In long-term
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: conflict wars, the winner is usually someone who has a
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: more powerful production base, not just braver. and the power
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: that his rivals have more.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: To defend and have less security. Spain in 1630 and
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Britain in 1910. The book's summary is this.
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: Being a great power requires a corrupt economy, but spending
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: more than the limit for the army and global commitments
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: For us Iranians, there is another lesson in this book.
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: The great Muslim emperors such as the Ottomans, the Gurkhanians
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: of India and the Safavids of Iran If you find
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 2: the summary of the book of Zuhur and the fall
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: of great powers useful, I also recommend reading the original book,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: because it is full of historical details, documents and theories
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: that are not included in a summary. The summary of
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: each book, from reading and reading the text, to reading,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: editing and publishing, takes at least one or two weeks.
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: You can help this journey in two ways. One, by signing.
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: The monthly right of participation to any amount you want.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: The link to sign the financial support and the bank
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: card number is in the description of this post and
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: also in the bio of the channel. Two, in every
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 2: platform that hears this summary, by liking and commenting and
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: especially by sending this content to your groups and friends,
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 2: support us and introduce us.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: Here we must thank all.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: The friends who supported us with the promotion of the
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: monthly participation award and also the introduction of Chekideh Mandegar.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: The Chekideh Mandegar Sound University in internal and external media.
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: In Balay, Telegram, ETA.
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: And if you use podcast applications such as CastBox, Spotify
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: or Apple Podcasts and similar devices, it is enough to
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: use the word Chekideh Mandegar.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: The audio files and the written text of the podcasts
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: are also available on the website www.khodai.wordpress.com. Thank you and goodbye.