Latest / Gunther Fehlinger Podcast / David Vance: Why ANY Iran Deal Is a Mistake | Iran, Hormuz & the West’s Moment of Truth

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David Vance: Why ANY Iran Deal Is a Mistake | Iran, Hormuz & the West’s Moment of Truth · Gunther Fehlinger Podcast

0:00
On all Hello everybody. Welcome to the Gunter filing a
0:05
podcast. After one month of a baby break,
0:08
I became father again. I'm back here online for the
0:11
most important topic of our generation.
0:14
I would say that's the freedom for the Iranians.
0:17
And of course, we're in the middle of at the beginning of
0:21
this week where it will be decided.
0:24
Will we have a continuation of the ceasefire?
0:26
Will the war of liberation continue or will unfortunately,
0:31
there will be some kind of surrender of the Western world
0:34
towards the tyrants of Tehran? And I was able to find a very
0:39
prominent personality in the fight for freedom for the
0:42
Iranians. This is David Wenz.
0:45
He is not related to the American vice president, I
0:48
understand, but he is one of the most prominent voices for regime
0:52
change, for freedom of Iran on X and in the UK media and on the
0:56
global media. I'm very honored that you're
0:58
here, David. Please introduce yourself and we
1:02
will discuss then how to achieve freedom for the Iranians,
1:05
please. Yeah, absolutely.
1:06
But first of all, can I congratulate you on becoming a
1:11
father? Well done.
1:14
And actually, I am vaguely related to JD Vance, believe it
1:19
or not, JD Vance's family. I come from a part of Northern
1:25
Ireland very close to my family. So I think going back about 150
1:31
years, there was some kind of link.
1:33
But I'm not sure I want to be related to him if he's, if he's
1:35
not going to be a hawk enough. Yeah, very quickly, very
1:38
quickly. About me.
1:39
I've been in frontline politics some years ago and then I got
1:44
sick of that and I moved into the commentating space.
1:47
Back in 2009, I saw this platform called Twitter.
1:52
I jumped on it and ever since then going through, I've just
1:56
grown. You know the My X platform, I've
2:00
got more than 300,000 people following me.
2:03
I've got all the other ones, YouTube, Facebook, all the other
2:06
stuff, and I just like to give my insights and takes and, you
2:11
know, and have good debate. Good intelligent debate is what
2:16
I love to have. So I'm still doing it.
2:19
As long as I'm able to, I will continue to do so.
2:22
And thanks for doing it because you are really a strong voice of
2:26
freedom and of regime change for Iran.
2:30
And this is what we have decided to discuss this morning because
2:33
it's a decisive week, the ceasefire.
2:36
Ceasefire going to run out, I think, on Wednesday or Tuesday
2:40
night. And the question is, what's
2:42
going to be happening then? Well, well, I hope that it does
2:46
run out and I hope that there is no deal because.
2:50
Because here's the thing, there should be no, no negotiations
2:55
whatsoever with the Tehran regime.
2:57
I honestly do believe that that we talk about regime change.
3:01
We need absolute regime change because this is an evil, wicked
3:06
regime. And you and I have been talking
3:08
about this since beginning of January when this all, and even
3:12
before that, when this started to happen, Iranian people rose
3:15
up. President Trump encouraged them
3:18
to go out and protest. He told them that help was on
3:21
the way. And about 45,000 maybe more were
3:24
slaughtered in the streets. January the 8th, January 9th.
3:28
And they're still hanging people.
3:29
They're still executing people. So my, my take is, why would I
3:33
want to negotiate with that? What is there to negotiate?
3:37
And this is the problem I've got my biggest single worry is that
3:41
they do negotiate. They come to some sort of
3:44
surrender deal of some sort. And, and actually The thing is
3:48
that the Iranians can play the long game.
3:51
Gunther, you know this. They just have to agree to
3:53
anything that they want for two years.
3:56
Trump will be gone. Whoever succeeds Trump, whether
3:59
it's my namesake or someone else, I don't think they will be
4:03
inclined to enforce whatever Trump agrees.
4:05
So in two years time the Iranians will be able to do what
4:09
they they have been doing. And so so I oppose any deal.
4:13
We can't have a deal. I want their absolute military
4:17
defeat and obliteration. I think David asked.
4:22
I think the Iranians, they know also very much the political
4:25
calendar of the United States of America and they know the
4:29
election was coming up. So they will be probably only
4:32
playing for time to somehow survive the next three months.
4:36
And then they feel safe that the lame duck American president
4:40
without the majority in Congress will be a less lesser enemy for
4:44
them. And so we are ready to concede
4:47
to anything which can buys them the survival for the next three
4:50
months. Yeah, but you're absolutely
4:53
right. And, and I totally agree with
4:55
that. But there is one bit of hope and
4:57
that is that the people in this regime are so demented, so evil
5:04
that they might think that they can walk away from a deal.
5:08
It's a possibility. They might say, no, we are,
5:10
we're, you know, we're so mighty.
5:12
We've defeated you. We've closed the straight of
5:14
Hormuz with collapsed global energy prices.
5:17
And so we don't need to do a deal with you.
5:19
Then they might. I would hope that they do that
5:21
because then Trump should on that basis militarily finish
5:25
them off, you know, because, because here's the thing as
5:27
well, you know, and we're both critical of of the US if it does
5:32
the wrong thing. I think what's happened thus
5:34
far, Gunther, you know, the, the, the killing of the
5:38
Ayatollah, a lot of the senior commanders, a lot of the
5:43
military infrastructure, that's all good.
5:45
I mean, I approve of all of that, but it's not enough.
5:49
And I'm sure you find the same thing.
5:51
I have Iranians contacting me every day saying tell Trump to
5:55
finish the job, you know, finish them.
5:59
Don't let them off. Because I actually think in a
6:02
way, and I don't know if you agree that things might be even
6:06
worse because it seems that the power has shifted to the IRGC
6:10
and they're like the s s, you know, they are dangerous,
6:14
dangerous people and they seem to have gained power.
6:17
So you don't want to at the end of this have an even more
6:21
dangerous psychopathic regime in in place.
6:25
Haven't taken all the political hits that President Trump has
6:28
taken. So I'm afraid it, it has to be
6:32
no deal and it has to be finished at, you know, throttle
6:35
them. I mean, the, the, the blockade
6:37
of the Strait of Hormuz, I mean that that's proven to be quite
6:40
good because economically they're, they're being
6:42
destroyed. I mean, there's, there's no
6:45
revenue coming in or out. But I still think you have to,
6:48
you basically have to eliminate them and there's no other
6:50
alternative. And you're also great point in,
6:54
in midterms, Trump will probably be as you say.
6:58
I think you're right. He'll be very restricted in what
7:02
he can do, if anything. So if they can get to November,
7:06
they're going to win. We should.
7:10
They shall not win. Let's discuss how everything has
7:13
started, because I see also in the UK, in the US and in the
7:18
European debate, the events of the 8th and 9th of January are
7:22
no longer so reported and somehow the public opinion is
7:26
somehow missing the point. As if we would go for fun in to
7:31
destroy a regime. And if it wouldn't be as evil as
7:35
it is, why have we in Europe and in the UK not been able to
7:41
somehow keep this justification for the war in the forefront of
7:46
the public debate? And everything has turned
7:49
somehow as it's Trump's war. It's not fair.
7:52
What are we doing there? Why did we in a way, lose the
7:56
public debate to some extent? I think it's because the
8:00
mainstream media in European countries, in the UK in
8:04
particular, are just instinctively anti Trump.
8:08
So they take that line. People like you and me who
8:12
operate in independent media online, I mean, we, we are able
8:17
to in a small way counter their propaganda.
8:20
But but you're quite right. I mean, the media narrative is
8:23
Trump woke up 1 morning and he decided to attack Iran.
8:26
That's the media narrative. And the fact that, I mean, I get
8:29
people, I've had people say to me recently like, well, if the
8:32
Iranian people want to get their freedom, why don't they just
8:36
grab it? Why don't they go to the streets
8:38
and, and, and do what needs to be done?
8:40
And my response is they did that and, and 10s of thousands were
8:44
slaughtered. You know, they're, they are, are
8:47
an unarmed people. But these things are not
8:50
understood by the common population.
8:52
I'm afraid. They're not the, the, the, the
8:55
media, the mainstream media is still very dangerous.
8:58
Although one thing I would say, at least the European Union has
9:04
outlawed the IRGC and banned it. Not in the UK.
9:09
The IRGC is still operating. It's still perfectly fine to be
9:14
a member of the IRGC in the UK. So, you know, we are in a very
9:20
bad position in this country in many ways.
9:22
But but you know, how can we not ban an organization that proudly
9:28
slaughters in, in Iran? And yet the media doesn't talk
9:32
about it, which is why people like you and I have to talk
9:35
about it as, as we do. And, and, and hopefully some
9:38
people might hear what we say and then they become a wee bit
9:42
more enlightened. David, let's talk about the
9:46
United Kingdom, because you were always on the forefront of
9:50
freedom. You have been militarily, of
9:52
course, defeating the Nazis. You have been instrumental to
9:55
defeat the Soviet Union. You have been as well
9:59
instrumental and key to defeat Milosevic and his Yugoslavian
10:02
terrorism. And again in Ukraine, you were
10:06
absolutely instrumental to save Ukraine and Kiev in the decisive
10:10
moments of the siege of Kiev in 2022.
10:14
So you were like the rock of NATO.
10:16
And you are basically the one shield of freedom in the world
10:21
history, if we want to say it like this.
10:23
And I see like that. And now, and of course, you have
10:27
liberated Kosovo. I can say continue liberated
10:30
Iraq, which is seem somehow more controversial.
10:33
And now in the case of Iran, Mr. Stammer, who was just elected
10:38
with such a maturity, is somehow very much confused in his policy
10:43
making. And I don't know exactly where
10:46
he stands at the moment. So explain our audience a little
10:49
bit what's going on in the United Kingdom in this decisive
10:53
moment. Well, well, as you say, the UK
10:55
has, you know, has a decent track record of standing up for
10:59
freedom and liberty. Yeah.
11:00
And, and that goes back actually a long time in history.
11:03
And, you know, we, we, we, we have achieved some good things,
11:06
which is which is what we should do.
11:08
But in, in, in recent years, I think the UK made a strategic
11:14
choice. And that was to move away from
11:17
investment in military and spend much more money on social,
11:22
social welfare and stuff like that.
11:24
And once, once Mr. Stormer, Sir, Sir Kerr got into power in 24,
11:29
that went on steroids. So we are now essentially A
11:33
pacifist nation. I mean, that was so obvious
11:36
during the IT was embarrassing for us to watch, for example,
11:42
when I think it was Hezbollah firing missiles at an RAF base
11:47
on Cyprus. They missed, but they could have
11:51
had. And our only response was right,
11:54
well, we'll send one more. The only functioning warship we
11:57
have, we'll send it there. And it took four weeks to get
12:01
there and it didn't quite get that length because the toilet
12:05
stopped working. Now we had a Royal Navy that
12:09
stopped the transatlantic slave trade and, you know, did
12:14
enormous global power. And that's what we're reduced
12:16
to. So, you know, I think as Europe,
12:19
as European peoples, we have a responsibility to defend
12:22
ourselves and, and Britain has let that vanish and, and so
12:27
we're exposed. I mean, there was, there was at
12:30
one point whenever the Iranians fired, you remember, they fired
12:34
a couple of missiles at Diego Garcia and they almost got
12:38
there. But it was several 1000
12:40
kilometers of, you know, of trajectory, which meant that
12:44
not, you know, Berlin, Paris and even London would have been
12:48
theoretically within the arc of attack of the ballistic
12:52
missiles. And do you know the UK has no
12:56
means of defending himself from ballistic missiles?
12:58
None. London could be bombed and we
13:02
couldn't do a damn thing about it.
13:04
We would have to rely on the US. Now that's negligence as well.
13:08
And it didn't happen overnight. It's happened over years.
13:12
And it's deplorable because I believe the first, you know,
13:16
responsibility of any government is to protect its own people.
13:19
When a government fails to do that, then it doesn't deserve to
13:24
be in, in power. And that's where Britain is.
13:27
We are a weak nation led by weak politicians who have no moral
13:33
compass at all and who, who seem like, like you said earlier,
13:38
the, the, the, the political class in, in Westminster, in
13:41
London. They seem indifferent to what
13:43
happened in Iran in January 8th, January 9th.
13:47
Do you know like that's like 10-9 elevens happened in 2 days
13:52
and and it's like no one talks about it.
13:54
No one talks about it here apart from people like me and you.
13:58
It's really very shocking because remember Tiananmen when
14:03
the Chinese basically killed the students, it was 4000 people.
14:07
So killing 30 or 40,000 people, the exact numbers to be
14:11
confirmed is an end atrocity. And when you really think what
14:16
is the reason for losing legitimacy, there can be no
14:19
bigger one than that. And it's absolutely justified to
14:23
intervene. And we have done it in history
14:26
often. And the Iranians should be
14:29
regime changed until basically complete surrender.
14:33
Trump has announced it, but he seemingly has other pressures.
14:37
I don't know the oil price or JD Vance's kind of links to Qatar.
14:42
What is exactly the hesitation here?
14:45
Yeah, Well, I mean, Trump says the right things, surrender or
14:49
die, that was the right thing to say.
14:52
And, and, and and obviously Trump is, I mean, he is pretty,
14:56
I think he understands that the only thing the Iranians
14:59
understand is force, power, that violence is basically what they
15:03
understand. Trump gets that.
15:05
But if you said he's operating in a political regime as well
15:09
where you know, some within his own regime, like JD Vance, I
15:13
think are not that keen on the the intervention.
15:20
And then he's got AUS media which is very hostile to him,
15:24
generally speaking anyway. So I do understand the
15:28
limitations, but it's also the point you made.
15:31
Trump has got between now and November, he needs to do the
15:35
thing, do it now. Nobody can stop him.
15:37
Do the thing now and the regime because as as this goes on, that
15:43
will become more and more unlikely.
15:45
And what worries me is, as I said, the fact that there may be
15:47
talks in Pakistan, which is a problematical state, to put it
15:51
mildly. Talks in Pakistan, what are they
15:55
going to talk about? And do you know?
15:57
I mean, I don't understand. Any talks would end up with the
16:01
regime staying in situ with or without maybe uranium, enriched
16:07
uranium for a couple of years. But but is that what this has
16:09
all been about just to stop them having it for a couple of years?
16:13
Is that what you know? You know, it's it's not it's not
16:16
good enough. I think President Trump does he
16:19
does understand the sweep of history and he's think I hope
16:22
he's thinking beyond just, you know, the next couple of months
16:26
because if if and this is another reason that I fully
16:29
supported this war. If we could bring proper regime
16:33
change in Iran and put in place a a return to constitutional
16:39
monarchy or whatever, it's for the Iranians to decide.
16:42
If it was Reza Pahlavi or whoever, and you would have a
16:47
big country like Iran right in the heart of the Middle East,
16:50
pro Western, pro Israel, pro American, and you would have a
16:55
bulwark against China potentially.
16:58
And so geopolitically, this is the right thing to do.
17:02
That's why I support it so much. I don't see any downside to it
17:05
unless we do the surrender and come up with a stupid deal that
17:10
keeps the thing intact and that sells out 90 million Iranians.
17:14
And honestly, that's that would be moral.
17:16
That's a moral hazard to me. Let's talk about these nuclear
17:21
aspects, because what exactly would stop the Iranian regime
17:25
after they have sent such a deal?
17:27
They will not really do a nuclear weapon, but they could
17:32
secretly continue and there's many elements there.
17:35
They will probably underground in some of their facility
17:38
continue and we will maybe, maybe they will delay it for
17:41
three months. But now then America will
17:44
withdraw the aircraft carriers. The whole 4th mobilisation will
17:49
be gone by summer, by September. And then they will reignite the
17:54
nuclear program and basically they will get a nuclear bomb
17:58
within the next two years, even before 2028.
18:02
And then we are looking, and not just not, it's not about just
18:06
looking like losers, but we will have lost, basically.
18:09
And they will have nuclear weapons and they will continue
18:12
to spread Islamist terrorism globally under the guise and
18:16
protection of their own nuclear umbrella.
18:18
And that will be the result of Trump's presidency.
18:22
Well, that's right. You're absolutely spot on.
18:25
That's exactly how this could end.
18:28
They, they want to become like North Korea.
18:31
They want to, once they've got the nuclear weapon, then
18:35
everything's changed, you know, and, and the only thing is
18:38
Israel cannot allow it. I mean, whatever Trump wants is
18:42
one thing, but Israel cannot. It's existential.
18:45
They've made it clear that if they get nuclear weapon, Israel
18:48
is a target. I mean, anywhere else could be
18:51
as well, but Israel is a target for them.
18:53
So I don't think Netanyahu will can afford and would let them
18:59
get that. But but with Trump, it's
19:02
different. It's like as long as they assign
19:04
some stupid deal that says, oh, we will not touch, we will not
19:08
pursue this for 15 years, something like that, 10-15
19:11
years. That seems to be some of the
19:12
things that's coming out of these talks.
19:15
But but as you say, that means nothing.
19:18
All that matters is to get to November and then they can
19:21
resume straight away. And actual fact, there's been
19:23
some video footage shown of the last during the ceasefire in the
19:28
last couple of weeks where you could see at some of the nuclear
19:31
sites that they have, they were starting to go in to uncover
19:35
and, and and, you know, repair the damage.
19:39
You cannot trust these people at all.
19:42
I don't think you cannot trust the regime.
19:44
I think Iranian people are some of the nicest people, most
19:47
intelligent, erudite, educated people, and they have to live
19:52
under this Islamic tyranny. And President Trump should get
19:58
that. But I don't know.
20:00
I don't know. Let's talk about the street of
20:03
Hormuz. As long as the Iranians
20:05
controlled an orphan passage through this Hormuz, and it's
20:10
such a small passageway straight that can be easily somehow
20:14
closed by rockets and Shahid Thrones based in Iran.
20:19
So as long as they do that, I think the whole global economy
20:25
is at the stranglehold that the chokehold of this Iranian
20:29
regime. And what makes Mr. Trump think
20:32
that under some kind of deal and they would be a reliable partner
20:36
not to close the Strait at their goodwill or bad will any moment.
20:42
Let's say 2 weeks before the November elections and the
20:47
October Surprise, which is not really a surprise.
20:50
But they will certainly be bent on revenge towards Trump for
20:54
bombing them now for six weeks. And they could easily block the
20:58
whole thing then and track it as the one big kind of hostage
21:02
taking of the global economy back in October.
21:06
Yeah, you're absolutely right. I mean, there's a fundamental
21:09
premise here. Those are international waters.
21:11
The Strait of Hormuz is it doesn't belong to Iran.
21:14
They don't own it. And the fact that they have
21:16
asserted this notion that they somehow own it, if that in any
21:21
way was to be recognized, that means, I mean, the England could
21:24
claim, we could claim we we own the English Channel, we're going
21:28
to put a toll on the English Channel.
21:30
It's insane. I mean, no, these are
21:31
international waters. Free, trans free movement is
21:35
required. So, so the question is the, the
21:39
fact that the Iranians have closed it is is kind of an act
21:43
of desperation because it's the final card that they have.
21:46
But I would like to see the US, I mean Israel go in really hard
21:52
and wipe out all along that bit of land on the coast where they
21:56
have the small boats or the fire that owns from.
22:00
Take effective comprehensive military action if necessary,
22:05
put boots on the ground, clear it out and and then they're done
22:09
because that's their last card. Once the straits are open, you
22:12
know that you know the story, Intern International Energy
22:15
prices will drop and the world will receive will return to
22:19
normal very quickly. But you can't have them.
22:22
You cannot allow them to maintain that threat.
22:25
It's a sort of Damocles over the world and and you know, even
22:31
China, it's a it's a, it's a sort of Damocles over them as
22:34
well. So yeah, we have to keep the
22:36
Strait has to be opened, it's international waters and Iran do
22:40
not get the say who goes through it.
22:43
The last days now the US Navy has blockaded the straits in
22:48
terms of the Iranian shipping very successfully.
22:50
They have held I think one or two vessels and they have
22:53
blocked it for the rest. And my question is also, David,
22:57
you know, why was this not part of the war planning from the
23:00
beginning? Why was there some kind of
23:04
leeway towards the Iranians to continue oil export during the
23:08
status of war? This should have been done from
23:10
the beginning. Yeah, it's a great question.
23:13
It's a it's a very obvious point that, you know, for all those
23:17
weeks of war, they were still being allowed to export oil and
23:21
get because as you know, the the Iranian economy is basically
23:26
bankrupt, but they can get revenue from the export of oil.
23:30
And for all those weeks they were allowed to export it.
23:33
Like you. I couldn't understand that that
23:35
would have said like step one, you know, basically blockade
23:39
their ports. Now that's working well at the
23:41
moment. So it's the blockade of a
23:44
blockade, so to speak. But you got to ask some
23:48
questions. Maybe America felt they had to
23:51
degrade the military, you know, the the military competence of
23:56
the Iranian regime before they did that on the basis if the US
24:00
had done the blockade and the the IRGC and stuff had had
24:04
enough ballistic missiles, they could have taken out some ships.
24:07
Maybe that's it. But listen, I'm very glad that
24:09
they've done it. I am glad that they've done it.
24:12
But I'm starving them is economically is good.
24:15
That's good politics and good military tactic.
24:18
But I still think you have to wipe out any capability that
24:21
they have militarily. And that should be the number
24:24
one focus. So they cannot exercise that
24:28
threat against the world. Already, David, already a month
24:33
ago I published an article about the liberation of Kag Island and
24:39
Chesham Islands. That's one of the big islands in
24:41
the great of Hormuz. And I recommended that the
24:44
Americans for the minimum. This is a kind of ground
24:48
invasion, but the very limited is basically to occupy and
24:53
liberate these two islands in order to control the oil export,
24:58
but also to make it very clear that they are here to stay and
25:02
they are serious. And also the to open the Strait
25:06
of Hormuz, because these islands are decisive for the control of
25:09
the straits. And you can also shoot back
25:12
towards the Iranian continental territory and you basically need
25:18
these islands. But still today the American
25:21
leadership has somehow been reluctant to use the marines and
25:25
to take these islands. Why is exactly this hesitation?
25:29
It's very strange because you will remember that they did bomb
25:35
the military structures on Karg Island, but then they did
25:39
nothing. They did nothing.
25:41
And, and I think that it would be symbolic and a strategic
25:44
asset to control those islands. And in particular, once you grab
25:49
control of Karg Island, you've got control of that, you've got
25:53
control of Iranian oil. That's it 90% going through
25:56
there. So some of the military
25:58
decisions I don't like you fully understand.
26:01
I mean, it's hard when you're not in the same situation to
26:05
under. There may have reasons, but that
26:08
would have been, that was a very good point you made that those
26:11
islands should have been occupied very quickly and put
26:14
the choke on them, you know, because they only can hold out
26:17
so long. And in Iran, this is the thing
26:20
as well. They're not this powerful nation
26:23
that they talk about. I'm sure like me, you see the
26:25
statements that they make every day on social media and it's
26:29
quite pathetic. I see them as a pathetic bunch
26:32
of monsters. And so America should just do
26:37
the right thing. Somehow.
26:38
I think that Israel has probably got more of a better take on it
26:43
than than than America because Israel has not held back.
26:48
But then President Trump told Israel to stop bombing
26:51
Hezbollah, which I think is a mistake.
26:54
Hezbollah should be wiped out. So yeah, look, it's, it's it's
26:59
difficult. Maybe they should put put you
27:01
and me in charge of the war for a week and let's see if you and
27:04
I could make a difference because I think things would
27:06
definitely shift. I tend to agree on that one.
27:09
Yeah, I was very much in favour of the liberation of Iraq
27:13
already 23 years ago. And you remember by April the
27:18
American troops were liberating Baghdad.
27:21
Yeah. But you can always make an
27:22
argument how it worked later. But yeah, yes, it was militarily
27:28
a major success and it would be totally possible to liberate as
27:32
well. Tehran militarily giving, I
27:34
agree. Whelming differential between
27:38
the forces, but Trump wants to do regime change on the OR.
27:43
Exactly what he wants to do is still not really clear.
27:46
He has a lack of direction and then he goes half in, half out
27:51
and it's simply not conclusive. It's strange.
27:55
Like if you look what he did in Venezuela, in Venezuela, he
28:00
changed the leader. But it's not exactly regime
28:03
change, is it? I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's
28:06
just that the new regime in Venezuela is well, the, the
28:10
continuity regime is more sympathetic to the US.
28:14
But I don't see how like Trump has posted on social media
28:18
several times, we've brought about regime change in Iran.
28:22
And I'm sorry, I cannot agree with that.
28:24
You have not brought regime change.
28:26
You know, you've swapped 1 Ayatollah for another one who's
28:29
in a coma but able to tweet apparently, which is quite a
28:32
skill. You know, you've done, that's
28:35
about you've done that and you've degraded their military a
28:38
bit, but it's the same people in charge.
28:40
I mean, look, we know that the generals running the running the
28:45
show are still psychopaths who merrily slaughter their people.
28:49
And you see, that's why ultimately, and from beginning
28:53
of January, we've said this, you know, you've got to think of
28:56
those 90 million Iranians who would be such powerful allies of
29:00
all our countries if we allowed, if we provided them with the
29:03
space to take the regime, arm them, send in arms, which
29:09
apparently they did and the Kurds took them for themselves,
29:12
send arm the Iranian people, they'll finish the job, you
29:16
know, but I don't know, like you, I've, I have, I, I'm
29:20
conscious of what I say in social media.
29:22
I don't want to depress my Iranian friends, but I worry,
29:26
probably like you do, that we're going to end up with something
29:30
that's not what you and I or they want to say.
29:33
I fear any compromise is unacceptable.
29:38
It's a grave danger and that's basically the war of liberation
29:42
is lost and Trump will retreat and the Iranian regime has won.
29:47
It's a danger at the moment and let's see how the outcome is.
29:51
One way would of course have been that there is a revolution
29:55
in Iran basically after combined with the military strikes, which
30:00
were technically I think very successfully.
30:03
But what was missing was the political component of a public
30:07
uprising in Iran, which unfortunately has not
30:10
materialized, probably under the threat of executions and the
30:16
tyranny. Yeah, yeah, you're absolutely,
30:19
you're absolutely right. The, the, the, the political
30:22
element is the problematical one.
30:24
But isn't it strange that in the last 6 to 8 weeks you've got the
30:28
likes of Prince Reza Palava, the son of the late child?
30:32
And I don't really think there's much contact between him and the
30:36
Trump regime, or I'm not aware of it, if there has been.
30:39
It's like the Trump regime is kind of distancing, distancing
30:43
itself from him. And that worries me because
30:45
that. Is it?
30:47
I don't know why, but I think that's the case.
30:50
And so, so then that means that you don't get the political
30:54
element that you're talking about.
30:55
The political element is being not pursued.
30:59
So I think there's a lot of support in Iran for the return
31:07
of the Shah's song. I do think I think he's a
31:09
popular charismatic figure who at least as an interim, would be
31:15
OK, but I don't get the impression Trump's very
31:18
interested in that and I don't know why.
31:22
Lindsey Graham was meeting with the Reza Baklavi several times
31:27
and, you know, he is the only available crystallizing figure
31:31
for a democratic pro Western Iran.
31:34
So I'm also supporting Reza Baklavi and but it has not
31:38
really worked out. And I think the core of the
31:41
problem is that President Trump has never endorsed yes,
31:45
government in extra exile because it would have been easy.
31:48
We have many government in exiles from Nepal, from East
31:51
Turkestan, from some Russian republics.
31:55
Yeah. So it would have been easily to
31:56
reform institution and then by the US to extend recognition to
32:01
that. And you already use military
32:03
violence against the country. As you know, this kind of
32:06
political combination of military and political, that's
32:11
right, would have helped the case.
32:14
But Trump was not ready for that.
32:15
Why? Yeah, it's I, I don't
32:18
understand. I unless he's trying to
32:20
replicate what he did in Venezuela.
32:23
In other words, you remove the Ayatollah and some of his, some
32:27
of his associates, and you hope that within the same regime
32:31
there are other people who are more reasonable.
32:34
That's the only thing I can think of.
32:36
And of course, that's foolish. It's absolutely foolish because
32:39
there's no one in the regime we should be doing business with.
32:42
But, but Riza Pallavi, I think is the figure and he's gone out
32:47
of his way to, I mean, he's done all these kind of, I saw him in
32:51
Sweden, in many countries trying to get support.
32:55
But the one place where he needs his support is in Washington.
32:58
It's in the White House. And I, I don't detect it.
33:02
I do not detect it. So I that's why I have my
33:06
concerns about how this would end up.
33:08
Does Trump just basically cobbled together a deal?
33:12
Oil prices drop, everyone says great job, he walks away and 90
33:17
million Iranians are still hostage to a tyranny?
33:20
Is that how this is going to end?
33:22
Because if it is, I can assure you I will not support that in
33:26
any way. It's not David.
33:28
It's not just 90 million Iranians.
33:29
Of course they are physically hostage of the regime, but the
33:33
whole world economy is hostage of the regime via the Strait of
33:36
Hormuz. And of course while the extent
33:39
of terrorism from Hezbollah to the Houthis and whatever they
33:42
else have planned, because leaving them wounded in in power
33:47
will make them extremely angry for sure.
33:50
And they support the means of this powerful economy and they
33:54
will be basically spreading their women globally and great
34:00
regrets if they survive 2026. You're right.
34:04
I mean, they need to be destroyed so that they're
34:07
proxies in Hezbollah, the hoodies, Hamas, they all.
34:12
You know, once you've cut the head of the snake, then then the
34:16
rest of it dies. But this way we're leaving the
34:19
head of the snake may be injured but not cut off because changing
34:24
1 Ayatollah for another doesn't do it.
34:27
It's not good enough. I mean, the other thing is like
34:30
this is an Islamic regime we're talking about here.
34:34
And, and, but it wasn't an Islamic regime back in 1978.
34:38
I remember it well. Iran was a pretty pluralistic
34:43
Western facing kind of country. And and whenever the Ayatollah
34:48
came back from France and and turned it into this Islamic hell
34:51
hole, like after 47 years it's only appropriate that it become
34:59
UN Islamic. But such is the grip of Islam
35:02
across the world that is that a fear.
35:04
I never hear anyone talk about that.
35:06
But I think Iran would be better if it returned to this pre
35:09
Islamic State. I think most Iranians would
35:12
agree with that. Why doesn't Trump, why doesn't
35:15
the world also say that? Are they scared, I wonder?
35:19
Absolutely, David. Let's talk about the minorities
35:23
in Iran, because we have about half of the population.
35:27
They are Turkmens, they are Baluch, they are Kurds, they are
35:31
series. Yeah, they are.
35:33
That's the main groups. And of course the Akwas Arabs in
35:36
the South. Yeah, we live in the periphery
35:38
basically at the Gulf, at the Caspian, at the border to
35:42
Pakistan, at the border to Iraq. And they've all been getting a
35:46
very bad deal for 50 years in the Islamic Republic.
35:51
But they're all, they're all Muslims.
35:53
Yeah, you know, they're obviously all true, but they are
35:56
mistreated and suppressed. And I made many interviews with
36:00
the representatives of the of the regional minorities like the
36:05
Aquas and Baluch. And they are all saying they are
36:08
extremely upset with the regime. They want to get rid and they
36:12
are ready for regime change. They all endorse that.
36:15
And they want to have the end of that terrible regime.
36:19
But the question is always how to work with them because Reza
36:23
Pahlavi did not make them a really an offer.
36:26
They appreciate it. Yeah.
36:28
President Trump said one day he wants to work with the Kurds,
36:32
one day not. There was a lot of speculation.
36:35
And you know, these people, they interview, they interviewed,
36:39
they always tell me, you know, the moment we move, we will be
36:43
the first one who get chopped the heads.
36:46
Yeah. As long as there is not enough
36:47
support, that's right, and they support, we will all rise.
36:52
And we have weapons. The Kurds have a lot of weapons
36:54
in the. Cashier.
36:56
Yeah, and. They are ready and they
36:57
experience in fighting, but we have not given them the signal
37:00
that really we want them to fight.
37:03
And so the only one that they're really fighting are the Israelis
37:06
and the Americans for four weeks or six weeks.
37:09
And you know, that's that's also not a coherent strategy at the
37:13
moment, which we need for victory and liberation.
37:18
Yeah, I mean, I, I've spoken to quite a few Bellucci people as
37:21
well over the many over the years.
37:23
And I'm, I'm well aware of how badly treated, how horrible life
37:28
is. It is for those and some of the
37:30
other minorities that you mentioned.
37:32
I totally get that. And so that you're right,
37:35
there's a lack of coherence and there is a, a lack of, of
37:40
strategy here. And the other thing is President
37:43
Trump has bet begging this one. I mean, this has been the
37:46
biggest thing, but Tibet's so big and not to have a clear end
37:53
to my mind is very odd. I don't, I, I don't understand
37:58
it. You know, I think, I think the
38:01
US should have been in there fermenting civil war.
38:04
They should have been in there arming the Iranians way back,
38:07
way back in January. They should have been, you know,
38:09
if in fact they should have armed, armed them before that so
38:12
that when they did rise up in the 8th and 9th, 7th, 8th and
38:15
9th of January that they could have actually taken out the the
38:19
regime. But you know, but if you have an
38:22
unarmed civilian citizenry, how can you from within effect
38:29
change? The answer is going through you
38:30
can't, you cannot do it, especially when it's a regime
38:34
like this one in Tehran, which is murderous.
38:37
So it's the situation is very complex and it's not going to be
38:42
sorted out by a deal in Pakistan today or tomorrow or whatever.
38:47
But but see, the other thing is international oil prices have
38:51
such a big impact. If we're honest about this, the
38:53
whole, the whole economic consequences of this are so kind
38:57
of significant. And I'm sure you find it where
38:59
you live. And here where I live, you know,
39:02
petrol prices have gone up, oil has gone up dramatically
39:05
actually. But I'm happy for that.
39:08
I'm happy to endure all of that if we can get freedom for Iran.
39:12
So, you know, if I, if I, if it's a bit expensive for a
39:16
couple of months to fill my car up or whatever, OK, that's OK as
39:21
long as they get a result. But it's, I'm not, I don't, I
39:24
will not be happy if I've had to go through all that.
39:27
And at the end of it, they're not really any better off.
39:30
There's a regime in place which could still threaten, as you
39:33
rightly observed, not just its own people, but the world.
39:36
Because if could you imagine if they had got nukes, what would
39:40
have happened by now had they got to the final stage?
39:45
Exactly, David. The problem I see is when we now
39:47
have a deal, yeah, then we have a very dangerous regime.
39:52
We got all the costs of the global economic shock and of
39:56
course of the criticism of military intervention, which is
40:00
also very much against America and Israel.
40:03
And we have all the negative parts of the activity, but we
40:07
have no good results. That's.
40:10
Right. And it was very expensive.
40:12
You know, the whole thing was damaging politically,
40:16
economically and financially. And then the end result is to
40:21
leave them in control of the nuclear weapons of the Strait of
40:25
Hormuz and of 90 million people and all the resources.
40:29
I think it would be really a disaster and a complete defeat.
40:33
Which is why whenever President Trump the other day said the
40:37
Strait of Hormuz is now open, as if, well, yeah, well, that's
40:40
good. But it was open six weeks or
40:42
several weeks ago. You know what?
40:44
Before this started, the Strait was open.
40:46
And now the Iranians have figured, oh, we can put a
40:49
tollbooth on the Strait of Hormuz.
40:52
So, you know, there's no way this ends well unless the regime
40:57
is collapsed and destroyed, eviscerated, turn to rubble,
41:02
kill them all. That's what needs to happen.
41:04
And a real military leader would understand that.
41:06
I'm not sure what advice President Trump is getting from
41:09
whom, I don't know. But I think his instincts are
41:13
probably OK. At least he did something unlike
41:16
his predecessors. I mean, Obama sent crate loads
41:21
of cash to the mullahs, so at least Trump's done something.
41:25
But you're right, unless he gets to the right end, the end
41:30
result, which is complete regime change, this will not have been
41:34
worth it. And I hate to say that, but
41:36
that's what I'm being honest. That's what I think.
41:39
I remind myself, you know, with historical analogies, you have
41:43
to be always careful. But I'm broadcasting here from
41:46
Vienna, and I want to remind my British listeners here that the
41:51
British were not so keen on the army streets in 1918 and 1919,
41:56
and the French even less. But the Americans imposed in a
42:00
ceasefire from Europe. And the French General Fosch
42:05
famously said that will be only lasting for 20 years because
42:10
ultimately you had to come back and you had to defeat Germany a
42:14
second time in the Second World War.
42:17
And if you don't really cut off the head of the snake and change
42:21
the system and then you come back again.
42:24
And now we have been already in the summer in July with the 12
42:28
day war. We had already war with Iran
42:32
last year. Now we have it war with Iran
42:34
this year. And I don't know what is the
42:36
plan of JD Vanzia. He wants to keep it for his own
42:39
presidency and have war every year with Iran.
42:45
Yeah, but, but, but, but, but you're right.
42:47
You have to finish the job. You really do.
42:50
And at the moment, I don't get a sense that I think we've
42:53
militarily degraded them. I think there's been good work
42:57
done there. But that's only that's not
43:00
enough. It's not enough to say we just,
43:02
you know, we killed one Ayatollah and then we wiped out
43:06
some generals and some leaders. We need to wipe out the whole
43:09
regime. You're right.
43:10
It's all or nothing. And unfortunately, if it's not
43:13
complete, if it's not full regime this year, then you're
43:15
right. They'll be coming back next
43:18
year, 2028, whenever. But Iran will be stronger.
43:23
Who wants that? We don't need a strong.
43:26
The worst thing in the world would be a strong Islamic
43:30
Republic of Iran, which knows that actually it can beat
43:34
America because it would have. I mean, that's the truth.
43:37
It would have beaten America if it survives.
43:39
Survival is victory. That's why I want them wiped
43:43
out. David, let's talk shortly as
43:46
well about his polar as well and about the hoodies because they
43:49
are projecting power everywhere in the region and hurting Israel
43:53
and America, Europe as well internationally and they have
43:57
these proxies. If they stay in power, do you
44:00
think they will rearm his polar and even make more problems with
44:04
the hoodies and or to build the be now a kind of more peaceful
44:11
regime and withdraw within the boundaries and reconstruct
44:15
peacefully their country now? What do you think they will?
44:19
No, that none of that will happen if they survive,
44:23
Hezbollah will become stronger, the hoodies will.
44:27
The hoodies actually could work out well.
44:29
Iran has been successful by blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
44:33
Maybe we could get become even more successful if we interfere
44:37
even more at the entrance to the Red Sea there.
44:40
So the, you know, you, we need to weaken their proxies and you
44:47
weaken their proxies by destroying Tehran.
44:50
That's how you do it. I don't, you know, Israel
44:53
understands this only too well what needs to be done, which is
44:58
why I was annoyed at President Trump when he put out a post
45:01
there last week to say he'd told Israel to stop the bombing.
45:06
You know itself well. And I'm sure Netanyahu wasn't
45:10
too happy about that because, you know, it's the same
45:13
principle everywhere. You've got to destroy Hezbollah.
45:16
I mean, I know it's difficult in Lebanon.
45:18
I understand there's complexities because they are,
45:20
they're also a political organization very similar to
45:25
what we have in Northern Ireland.
45:27
I live in Northern Ireland going through, we have, we had IRA and
45:31
Sinn Fein similar. One was a terror organization,
45:36
the other one's a political wing.
45:37
And I understand Hezbollah and I know it's in the Lebanese
45:41
parliament and all that. But you know, I don't think you
45:45
can compromise with terrorism. I think you have to wipe it out.
45:48
And I think Hezbollah should be wiped out as best as possible.
45:52
The hoodies are dependent on Iran.
45:54
I mean, they just are. So if you wipe out Iran, you
45:58
wipe and validate the hoodies and Hamas have gone very quiet,
46:03
haven't they? I wonder why that is.
46:04
Because they're pay masters in Tehran have a few other problems
46:09
to think about these days. So cut off the head of the
46:13
snake. All your problems go away if you
46:15
don't. They will.
46:17
They will. They will come back.
46:19
They will come back and they'll be even worse.
46:20
I honestly think that. And when we see that we are in a
46:24
kind of a global struggle between democracy and
46:27
authoritarianism and that Iran and Russia are basically very
46:32
close allies, have technology partnership, financial,
46:35
logistical, military partnership, and of course both
46:38
of them are backed by China. But correct the consequences if
46:43
we have, for example, a re emerging Iranian regime which
46:48
survives now and they of course in Moscow and in Beijing, we'll
46:52
see is a strong sign of Western leadership or as a defeat.
46:57
Well, see, that's exactly right. China and Russia will see this
47:01
as it is, as you see it. And as I say it, it would be a
47:04
victory if Iran survives. I mean, it's very much there.
47:09
Is that axis of kind of axis of evil really between Moscow and
47:14
Tehran and Beijing? And everyone's got a vested
47:18
interest in Iran continuing. But what, what is it?
47:22
The only thing that's encouraged me is that, you know, despite
47:25
the, the language used, China has kept, has been relatively
47:31
keeping itself out of the situation.
47:33
You know, so I think like a strong America will ward off the
47:40
the threat from Russia, the threat from from from China, as
47:44
long as it's a strong America. And under President Trump, we,
47:47
we have an America that's stronger than what it has been
47:50
in the past for definite. So it's strategically for the
47:54
world, for the world's benefit that the US does end this regime
47:59
in Tehran so that China does not become even more aggressive.
48:05
And Russia sees again that that the West is weak because that's
48:09
it. I mean, it's about projection of
48:11
strength. But, but you don't project
48:13
strength by just sending your, you know, your Navy vessels and
48:16
all your military and the into the Middle East as has happened.
48:20
You project strength by finishing it off.
48:24
You know, you have to do that. You talked about 1918.
48:28
You have to finish the job, otherwise it'll come back.
48:32
David, when it comes now to the moment that Trump is deciding to
48:36
restart the war and basically go full in and really regime change
48:41
and be the Liberator of Iran, the Liberator of Iran, who is
48:46
really ending this regime and establishes new democratic free
48:50
Iran. What will be his legacy?
48:52
Will this be his most important achievement in his second term?
48:56
And will he be able also to lead the the Republican Party to
49:01
victory in November with a victory in Iran?
49:04
That's a great question. And, and, and, and I think the
49:07
answer is it depends who you ask the question to.
49:10
For maybe you and I, his legacy would be to remove the Iranian
49:16
regime. That would be great.
49:17
But I think a lot of American voters don't say it like that.
49:21
I think they vote very much on a domestic basis.
49:23
So, for example, Trump's success in sealing the border, the
49:27
southern border, the US economy, these are the things that
49:32
actually people go out to, to, to vote on and, and, and they
49:36
will determine who the next president is on that basis as
49:40
well. And indeed, the new Congress
49:42
come the end of this year. So I don't know if, if I'm sure
49:47
you talk to American people like, like I do.
49:49
And, and they they do, they look at within America, it's within
49:55
the boundaries of the United States that where their focus
49:58
is. So you could stop foreign wars.
50:01
You could, you know, as Trump has tried to do and you could do
50:04
all that. And ultimately they'll say,
50:07
yeah, but the price of, you know, I'm, I'm having to pay, I
50:10
don't know, 4 or $5 to fill up my car or whatever.
50:13
That's more important to me. So I, I don't know, I think a
50:17
lot of the America first people, they would want Trump to be much
50:23
more focused on internal matters.
50:25
But but I think that if I look at history beyond just two
50:31
years, four years, look at it broader, what President Trump
50:35
can achieve is monumental if he can do this.
50:39
So it could be its greatest success, but ironically, it
50:43
could end up creating massive failure at home.
50:47
And that's life. You know, it's like there's the
50:50
good bet and there's the bad bet.
50:53
But I, I, I actually think history judges things in the
50:57
long term, not in the short term.
50:59
So, so the long term is regime change in Tehran.
51:03
But I know Trump has to look after the domestic agenda and
51:08
but I think, you know, there's been a lot of support for this
51:12
war in America. But Americans love success.
51:17
That's what they like. They don't, they don't mind war.
51:19
They don't like wars until they win the war, then they really
51:23
like the war, right? So, you know, the wars in
51:26
Vietnam and other things they've got involved in, they didn't
51:28
win, didn't like it. If it's a clear win, that'll be
51:32
good for Trump and that'll help him domestically.
51:35
So for all the reasons you and I have talked about here, it's in
51:39
his best interest to finish it and remove the regime.
51:45
And even domestically, it's in his interest to do so.
51:48
But you know, I'm not sure. Let's see the coming days.
51:53
We will. Yeah.
51:55
Very much in the coming days. I think the talks are ongoing
51:59
now on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday is the end of the
52:03
deadline. So we discussed all the possible
52:06
scenarios and I think it's clear that we both are absolutely for
52:11
regime change and for end of this terrible 47 years of
52:15
dictatorship and tyranny in Iran, which has brought only
52:19
terrible results to the Iranian people and of course to the
52:24
world, to the neighbors, to anybody.
52:26
And the free Iran would be definitely much better for the
52:30
world economy and for the Iranians and for President
52:33
Trump. So he better finish that regime.
52:37
OK. Thanks a lot, David.
52:40
Thank you very much. Thank you.
52:42
Thanks for joining this show. And let's see and keep in touch
52:46
on ICS in the coming days and see the results of the Pakistan
52:50
discussions. Thank you very much.
52:52
Best regards to the OK. And to you, bye bye.
52:56
Thanks.