Latest / The Fourcast / Is Labour’s problem Starmer or something much deeper?

Transcript

Is Labour’s problem Starmer or something much deeper? · The Fourcast

0:00
You speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the impression
0:02
of Crikey. Kier has not got long left in
0:04
him. However, you need someone to
0:06
wield a knife. It's remarkable now when you go
0:08
out and about how toxic it's become around Starmer, the kind
0:11
of visceral dislike of him inevitably damaging set of local
0:15
elections in May. We'll probably finish him off.
0:17
I mean, there is a world in which Kier Starmer serves out
0:20
the year as Prime Minister because it's so difficult to get
0:23
rid of a sitting Labour leader. After the Burnham thing, who's
0:26
most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most excited to
0:30
be Nigel Farage? Hello and welcome to the
0:36
forecast. It was the political psychodrama
0:39
that finished off the Tories and now Labour look like they're
0:42
heading down the exact same path.
0:44
Can changing a party leader ever lead to electoral success?
0:49
Quite a lot of Labour MPs seem to think so.
0:51
That Andy Burnham won't for the moment be the man to do it for
0:55
them. Keir Starmer has seen off his
0:57
attempt but hasn't given the Prime Minister any more than a
1:00
temporary reprieve from dagger wielding colleagues.
1:03
Can travelling the globe as international statesman avoid
1:06
the blows? China and a meeting with
1:08
President Xi is his latest destination.
1:11
He says that his relentless focus is actually the cost of
1:15
living crisis at home, but other public or his MPs buying it.
1:20
Joining me to discuss it are senior political correspondent
1:23
Paul McNamara, the ipaper's chief political commentator
1:27
Kitty Donaldson and political editor of the Liverpool Echo,
1:31
Liam Thorpe, welcome to all of you.
1:33
Let me start with you, Paul. Does the Labour Party have a
1:38
Starmer problem or is it something bigger?
1:41
I mean, they have. He's one of their problems at
1:45
the moment. I think they would have an issue
1:47
with events, dear boy, events. I think the economy's not on
1:51
their side at the moment. There's a small boat crisis that
1:55
they would argue is going to be a massive factor come the
1:59
election. The biggest problem isn't within
2:02
the party, it's Nigel Farage and Reform Party and how you tackle
2:08
that is shaping all arguments that are coming before.
2:11
OK, and we'll talk about Farage and whether we've reached peak
2:14
populism at the end of the podcast.
2:15
But Kitty, let me ask you the same question.
2:17
Does the Labour Party have a Starmer problem or is it
2:19
something bigger They. Certainly do have a Starmer
2:22
problem. He polls worse than the Labour
2:24
Party as a whole and they'll be looking to replace him at some
2:30
point when that time comes. We're not entirely sure.
2:32
We think probably not till after May.
2:34
But that's what this is all been about, this weekend's
2:36
shenanigans. It's been about what happens
2:38
after May and getting the soft left preferred candidate into
2:42
Parliament. And at the moment, well, until
2:44
recently, that was Andy Burnham. That's why they're having such a
2:47
kind of breakdown about him blink, him being blocked.
2:51
And what's been going on today is chatter amongst Labour MPs
2:55
about, if not Andy, then whom? And I'm hearing that people are
2:59
now trying to convince Ed Miliband, perhaps to make a
3:04
further tilt at the leadership. Liam, it's happened quite a few
3:08
times in recent weeks, said people close to the Labour Party
3:10
or in the Labour Party. They dragged me into a quiet
3:13
corner and they whisper into my ear, you know, upon the promise
3:16
of never to repeat that to anyone else.
3:18
I think Keir Starmer will fight the next election and win,
3:22
right. So they're they're actually, you
3:24
know, enormous saying it is if they belong to some kind of
3:26
underground movement. Can you see him fighting the
3:29
next election for Labour, let alone winning but just being the
3:32
candidate I. Thought you were going to say
3:34
Matt, that they dragged you into a corner and asked you to stand
3:36
as the leader. Let's let's fix it.
3:38
I'm waiting, I'm waiting, Liam. You know, I think you've been
3:42
pulling considerably better than than Keir Starmer.
3:45
I, I, I, I can't see it. I really can't see it.
3:49
I have the advantage up in, in the northwest of, of, you know,
3:52
speaking to people in areas where Labour have historically
3:56
always been successful. But it's remarkable now when you
3:59
go out and about speaking to people, how, how toxic it's
4:03
become around Starmer. Now, now, from my personal
4:06
perspective, I think there's been plenty of disappointment,
4:08
but the, the kind of visceral dislike of him I find quite
4:12
remarkable. And I think you, you can look at
4:14
social media and, and elements of that and some of it is maybe
4:16
a little bit unfair. But I, I really do think we're,
4:18
we're kind of, that's the point of no return now.
4:20
And as Kitty says, a damaging, inevitably damaging set of local
4:24
elections in May. We'll probably finish him off.
4:27
I'm sure we'll come on to talk about Andy Burnham.
4:29
But I think that there is a, there is a big difference there.
4:31
And when, when I speak to people out and about, I went there
4:34
yesterday into Andy Burnham's birthplace in, in Aintree and
4:37
Merseyside, people absolutely love him.
4:39
They really do. He's he's, he seems to tick some
4:42
of the same boxes remarkably as Nigel Farage does, even though
4:45
they are sort of polar opposites in terms of politics.
4:48
But it's for many people, it's just in terms of relatability,
4:51
who they think is on their side. And I don't think they feel that
4:53
from Kier Starmer. Just for the for the purposes of
4:57
the fact that you are a king of the North for this podcast,
5:01
Yeah, our very own King of the North.
5:03
How does the visceral dislike or hatred against Starmer compared
5:07
to the visceral like or hatred against Corbyn when he ran just
5:11
briefly? Well, well, very different.
5:14
So in Liverpool, where I am now, and Jeremy Corbyn was actually
5:16
pretty popular, he would have big rallies here, but then you
5:19
would go to areas sort of on the outskirts, more kind of red wall
5:22
areas. And it was very much the
5:23
opposite, I'm afraid to say, for Keir Starmer across the board,
5:27
where I speak to people now, it is a very, very strong and, and
5:31
as I say, almost emotional dislike of him and what he
5:35
stands for and, and that I'm afraid is going to do for him, I
5:39
think. Liam, I've got a question for
5:41
you. When you're talking to people,
5:43
is that annoyance and anger squarely on Keir Starmer or is
5:50
there for the wider Labour Party in general?
5:52
Have they had not, have they had enough the last 18 months, all
5:55
the utiles or is it all just all on, all on Keir?
5:59
Good question. Rachel Reeves is very unpopular
6:01
as well. And both of them, you know, I
6:04
find it remarkable that I speak to people and they say I'm never
6:07
voting for Labour again because of Starmer.
6:09
I'm voting for reform. And then I say, what about Andy
6:12
Burnham? And they say, OK, if he came
6:14
back, I'd vote for Labour. So I find it really strange that
6:16
people are potentially at this sort of crossroads between a
6:19
soft left progressive mayor of Greater Manchester who believed
6:23
in a green industrial revolution and the hard right politics of
6:26
Nigel Farage. And I think that's why so much
6:28
of it comes back to the cult of personality as well.
6:30
And Keir Starmer's inability to to connect with people, connect
6:34
with voters. You know, I had a guy saying, I
6:36
mean, this isn't his fault. A guy yesterday said to me, I
6:38
can't vote for a Labour leader who's a knight of the realm.
6:40
And that that's where politics has got to in some ways, that's
6:43
not in any way Keir Starmer's fault, but it's another thing
6:45
that's counting against him as a kind of figure of the
6:47
establishment that doesn't believe or doesn't kind of
6:50
connect with working class voters.
6:52
Let me ask you, Kitty, about the man not yet called Sir Ed
6:55
Miliband. Are you really saying that Ed
6:57
Miliband, you know, who lost the previous Labour election, who,
7:01
you know, had AI mean he's been on a journey, right?
7:03
He's been on a journey from his very awkward sandwich to having
7:06
some very, you know, very, very clear views about, you know, the
7:10
environment. And, you know, when you hear him
7:12
in interviews, he seems to have, you know, improved with age and
7:15
experience, I have to say. But do you really, seriously
7:19
think that he might be in a position to replace Keir
7:21
Starmer? No, I don't.
7:23
I think this is an expression of the Labour left casting around
7:29
trying to find an alternative to where streeting.
7:31
This is what this is the current expression of with they would
7:36
rather have Angela Rayner, but she's currently on the bench for
7:38
reasons we know all too well. And therefore if they're saying,
7:42
they're saying if we can't have Angela, then who do we want
7:45
instead? And in the absence of someone
7:47
else presenting themselves, I don't know Louise Haig or Lucy
7:52
Powell or or one of these figures, who is there that we
7:55
could have, who is an alternative to West routing in
7:58
May? And Ed Miliband's name keeps
8:00
coming up. As you say, he's ruled himself
8:02
out. I, I tell you what I find
8:05
astonishing about this discussion.
8:06
We're only three minutes in or so.
8:07
Is that we, we, you know you, and I'm not even saying we, but
8:10
you seem to have all written off Keir Starmer.
8:12
And I'm not, I'm not advocating, I'm not a member of the Starmer
8:15
family. I'm not Morgan McSweeney in
8:16
disguise. I'm just wondering.
8:18
So this is my question. Let me start with you, Paul.
8:20
Is there any way that Keir Starmer can save his political
8:23
skin? I think that if you talk to
8:26
Labour MPs, pretty much all of them off the record and talking
8:31
to you quietly and like, well, you know, he's done for.
8:35
It's the machinations of, of of, of how we move on.
8:38
Now, have you met any backbenchers who think that
8:40
he'll survive? Well, there's a few loyalists
8:42
and maybe they're not backbenchers, maybe they are
8:44
paid up members of the government who are, who are
8:46
still. Back soldiers here, not people
8:48
who, yeah, like for their jobs. Even even a lot of you know,
8:51
during the election they were all called the storm troopers,
8:54
like the, the young, predominantly young men who all
8:57
look very similar to Keir Starmer.
8:58
The TV's not that dissimilar from him and even a lot of them
9:02
now pretty annoyed about how the weekends panned out for him.
9:07
So, so you, you speak to Labour MPs and you're left with the
9:10
impression of crikey, Keira's not got long left in him.
9:14
However, the thing that always comes back in my mind is that
9:19
Labour aren't quite as good at decapitating the party.
9:24
Procedures not there, it's not as easy.
9:26
Yeah, and as the Tories were, you know, everyone always
9:28
thought, you know, for years we've had one to show a million
9:31
times, David Miliband. And everyone always talks about
9:33
David Miliband. Oh, God.
9:34
You know, the the leader that could have been.
9:36
Well, he bowled it twice in 2008.
9:39
He didn't go for it. And so in the back of my mind, I
9:41
keep on thinking, yeah, you know, you talked to all these
9:43
MPs. You think Keir Simon hasn't got
9:45
long for it. However, you need someone to
9:48
wield the knife. Kitty, I guess timing is really
9:51
bad for Keir Starmer, isn't it? Because the May elections are in
9:53
May. We are now at the end of
9:54
January. He's only got a couple of months
9:57
for people to feel any improvement or for growth to
10:00
actually manifest itself, et cetera, et cetera.
10:03
But I but I'm also looking at the polls and I noticed that
10:05
there's been a slight uptick in Labour's favour, A slight down
10:09
tick, if you like, for reform or for the Greens.
10:12
And then we're going to talk about peak populism if that's
10:14
what we've reached later on in the podcast.
10:16
But I just wonder whether maybe we're seeing the beginnings of
10:20
some kind of partial recovery. And if they pitch it right ahead
10:25
of the May elections, could they game their failure and turn it
10:29
into a success in the way that Corbyn did, you know, in the
10:32
2017 general election, which he lost.
10:35
But for him, it was a kind of great personal victory, Kitty.
10:40
There's quite a lot in that question.
10:42
Sorry, yeah, it was a so it was a long one.
10:44
I keep them short of 1. I get paid by I get paid by the
10:47
word per question. That's why it's a new.
10:50
Thing that's a great gig that's a great gig I think several
10:54
things going on one is yes the polls are moving around a little
10:59
bit at the moment and strategies both in Labour and the Tories
11:05
I've spoken to think that the reform lead is very very soft
11:08
and that actually we've reached the high watermark of where
11:11
reform we're going to get to and the only way is downhill from
11:14
here. I mean of course the only that
11:16
really matters is is in May is where it's the first proper data
11:20
point we've got of what people are really thinking about
11:24
reform. And but equally May is a chance
11:27
for people to give the government a kicking.
11:29
That is why the kind of Gordon and Dent thing is so interesting
11:32
is that it would have provided another data point.
11:35
But also Andy Burnham polls above the the Labour national
11:41
average and therefore probably probably could have probably the
11:44
only person who could have held onto that seat for them.
11:46
And I've forgotten the rest of your questions, Matt, but I
11:49
think you kind of. You've why don't we just say
11:51
you've? That was a brilliant answer,
11:52
Kitty. I've forgotten the rest of my
11:54
questions too, so let me move on to Liam.
11:56
Liam, do you think that Andy Burnham could have saved Labour
11:59
in the May elections had he been elected leader?
12:02
I mean MP first and then leader. Yeah, you were jumping ahead of
12:06
yourself there, but I think that's, we all know that's where
12:07
it was going. Yeah, I, I've written a column
12:10
on this. I've my, my sort of colours are
12:12
nailed to the mast. I, I do believe from, from my
12:14
experience of, of speaking to people and and the general kind
12:17
of consensus I've gathered that Ivandy Burnham, as Kitty says,
12:20
if he had stood in Gordon and Denton, I think he's probably
12:23
the only candidate who could win that for Labour.
12:25
You look at the, the individual polling of Labour with or
12:28
without Burnham up against reform in that, in that by
12:31
election and it's, it's, it's about four or five percentage
12:33
points different either way. So I feel sorry for who whoever
12:37
Labour selected as their candidate.
12:39
I think that they're in a really difficult position because I
12:41
think if you were in Gorton and Denton, you have you, you were
12:44
hoping to vote for the very successful mayor of the city
12:47
region that you live in. Who, who, I think across the
12:50
board has to be regarded as the most successful city region
12:53
mayor that we've probably seen in the, the, the devolved world,
12:56
that devolved country that we live in.
12:57
And then you've suddenly seen that his party have blocked him
13:00
from standing. I think that people who were
13:02
even on the fence about Labour would go the other way and that
13:04
people who are, who are already going the other way will be even
13:07
more entrenched in their vote for reform.
13:08
So I think that Burnham could have, could have, could
13:11
definitely have won that for Labour and that would have been
13:12
a massive boost for Starmer as well.
13:15
I think it I think this only hastens his his dissent really.
13:18
Right, Paul, do you think that if he had been elected, if if,
13:21
if, if had he been elected and got the Benton, do you think he
13:23
could have turned things round naturally actually had he then
13:26
been elected leader of the party?
13:27
I, I don't know, I think Liam will have a better still on this
13:32
than me, but I think the jury is still out on Andy Burnham.
13:35
Like he's benefited massively by being the King of the North, not
13:39
just because he gets to be the king of the North and bowl about
13:41
Manchester and looking great. Could he be the king of
13:43
everywhere? Well, and when you're the king
13:45
of the North, you're not facing questions about everywhere else.
13:48
You're not. You're not daily or at least
13:50
weekly, put on a platform where you have to answer for yourself.
13:54
We have to answer difficult questions.
13:55
He's not out doing morning rounds and, and, you know, being
13:58
made to look a mug on, on, on the Today programme or, or on
14:01
Channel 4 News or anywhere. So he's benefited by, not by not
14:05
having that national presence, really.
14:08
Kitty, have we projected things onto Andy Burnham, you know, or
14:12
some people not not us necessarily, but have people
14:14
projected stuff onto Andy Burnham that Andy Burnham
14:17
doesn't have? Is he like a sort of Christmas
14:19
wish list of political talent that we will never see whether
14:22
it actually, you know, holds up under fire?
14:25
Yes, yes, I think so. And also this weekend's done
14:28
nothing to, to do to dissipate that impression, has it?
14:31
He's now a martyr in the eyes of, you know, of the Labour left
14:35
and, and will continue to be so until he gets his chance to
14:37
shine. I mean, the other thing is, you
14:40
know, Andy Burnham's been on quite a political journey.
14:43
You know, I looked up some of his contributions to a Treasury
14:46
Select Committee the other day, you know, because I have nothing
14:49
better to do. And he he was, he sounded almost
14:53
George Osborne like in his, in his sort of appreciation for,
14:57
for sound fiscal prudence to, you know, to quote Gordon Brown.
15:01
And, and it's extraordinary that now, you know, now he's talking
15:05
about not being in hop to the bond market.
15:07
I mean, the idea that this guy could come in and basically
15:10
borrow how much he wants to build more council houses and,
15:16
and the bond markets wouldn't react.
15:17
It's just nonsense. So in fact, the bond markets
15:20
were even reacting to the idea that he might get Gorton and
15:23
Denton. So so, you know, and this is
15:26
before we've even got onto the idea that he's going to stand up
15:29
next to Donald Trump and, you know, be the saviour of the left
15:33
and sort of, you know, do have their Love Actually moment or
15:36
whatever people trying to project onto him.
15:37
It's just, I think it's just nonsense.
15:39
Would he have picked up Donald Trump's papers from the trade
15:41
deal that Trump dropped to the ground?
15:43
That's a key question. You know, Keir Starmer picked
15:46
them up, you know, like the good supplicant that he is.
15:49
And would Andy Burnham have done that?
15:50
I don't know. Liam, let me ask you, just a
15:52
quick one. I'm just fascinated by this.
15:53
So Andy Burnham has been mulling this idea, you know, of standing
15:57
in this, you know, in the by election that's coming up.
15:59
He must have known that there was a very good chance that Keir
16:02
Starmer would and his people would block him.
16:05
So why did he do it anyway? Is it because he once martyrdom
16:07
status or because he thought there was a chance that they
16:10
wouldn't block him? What's going on in his mind?
16:13
I mean, you're right, you know, you would assess, assess that
16:15
he's done his homework and realised the make up of that NEC
16:18
was, was absolutely not in his favour.
16:19
Including the Prime Minister himself, of course, who I was a
16:22
little bit surprised to see cast a vote in a what many would see
16:25
as a slightly petty move. But I think that it's both
16:28
things. I think that he did think that
16:30
there was possibly a chance that he would appeal to hear
16:33
Starmer's vulnerabilities and that that Starmer would look and
16:36
say, look, I'm going to look incredibly weak if I block Andy
16:39
Burnham from coming in. I'm going to look like I'm
16:41
scared of people within my own party.
16:43
And, and it will, I will write the opposition's attacks for
16:45
themselves for the next few months, which I think is what
16:47
has happened. And I think Burnham thought I'll
16:50
take my chances on that and, and the net result if they block me
16:53
and I get to go back to my successful job as Great
16:55
Manchester mayor. OK, a few people might have
16:57
their noses put out a joint, but I think most people in Great
16:59
Manchester will welcome him back.
17:00
And he gets to look like a martyr.
17:02
And I think only probably, Yeah. Hastings, the demise of Keir
17:06
Starmer. So I think, yeah.
17:08
But Burnham had it win, win. Starmer had it lose, lose.
17:10
And Starmer really lost. Liam, I've got a question for
17:13
you. So a hefty chunk of Keir's
17:16
argument was, look, it would cause a mayoral by election that
17:22
cost four and a half, £1,000,000 of taxpayer money.
17:25
That is almost offensive for us to ask taxpayers to dip into
17:29
their pocket. What are the people of Great
17:31
Manchester think though? Do they think, yeah, thanks Keir
17:34
for saving us Four and a half, £1,000,000 I think.
17:36
No, no, no, this is just poppycock.
17:38
I don't, I mean it's a fairpoint, but I don't, I mean I
17:41
think everyone sees through it. Nobody believes that's the
17:43
reason why they stopped it. Nobody thinks that if it if it
17:46
was in their advantage that they wouldn't happily fold in that
17:49
£5,000,000. There's no thanks to Kier
17:51
posters going up all over the place.
17:52
No, no, cheers for that 5 minutes.
17:55
I've seen loads by the way. This is how we're going to spend
17:58
it. You know, I just don't think
17:59
anyone buys it. That's the problem.
18:00
And also, I think you could, you could make the argument that
18:02
they can fold it in with local elections, they can work it
18:05
around and, and ultimately people won't know where that 5
18:08
million has gone. So I don't think that really
18:09
watches. I think what they do see in
18:11
Great Manchester is the threat of reform.
18:13
And I think that they, they will have thought that reform, we're
18:15
going to now win this by election.
18:16
And Andy Burnham was the only person who who could beat them.
18:18
I, I, I, you know, I've got family who live in Great
18:20
Manchester. They're very, very fond of him
18:22
as a mayor. They think he's done great
18:24
things on transport. But it's not like he's just
18:26
started. He's, he's into his third term,
18:29
so I don't think he could, he could be accused of abandoning
18:31
Grey Manchester. He's, he's done 8-9 years and he
18:34
would be set leaving them in a very decent position.
18:37
So I, I, I, I don't think that argument works either.
18:39
I think they just, they, you know, Starmer and Co knew that
18:41
he was a massive threat. Katie, I just want to get back
18:43
to this point because I don't think any of you really answer
18:45
the question. Is there any result in May other
18:49
than victory, which is highly unlikely, that saves Keir
18:51
Starmer's skin? I mean, there is a world in
18:53
which Keir Starmer serves out the year as Prime Minister
18:57
because it's so difficult to get rid of a sitting Labour leader.
19:03
You need 80 Labour MPs to to gather behind a challenger.
19:08
And then even if there's a challenge Keir Starmer could
19:12
could win, win any election. And that there is a world in
19:15
which Labour left doesn't get itself, doesn't get his act
19:18
together, doesn't come up with a verbal candidate to to where
19:21
streeting and therefore Keir beats Wes in a in a leadership
19:27
contest. I mean, I think that's quite
19:28
unlikely if you ever got to that point, because I think even even
19:32
those in the party who support care and who are, you know, even
19:37
vaguely grateful that he won them their seats.
19:39
Think that take one look at his poll ratings.
19:41
I think actually this guy is not going to lead into the next
19:43
general election And and we need to change, change front man.
19:48
And if that's if that's Wes, then OK, maybe we'll grit our
19:50
teeth And and even if we don't like his politics, particularly,
19:53
although Wes has tacked the left little bit in recent months,
19:58
even if we don't like his politics, we will, we will, we
20:00
will grit our teeth and get on with it because we think that
20:02
words perhaps is the is the better chance of of, you know,
20:06
seeing off reform of seeing off the Greens and the Lib Dems.
20:11
Liam, what about you? I mean, I think that Nigel
20:14
Farage, Mr. Mr. Farage once said that he fears Angela Rayner more
20:18
than any other candidate. I'm not sure whether he was just
20:20
playing with us, but she's got the populist touch.
20:22
You know, she's she's a great communicator who is most likely
20:26
in your book and in it's early days and, you know, things
20:29
always moving. But after the Burnham thing,
20:31
who's most likely to be the heir to Kier and who's most likely to
20:35
be Nigel Farage? Well, I, I agree with with, with
20:40
Kissy that when you take Burnham out of the equation, it's a,
20:44
it's a bit of a mess. And I was speaking to MPs in
20:46
Merseyside after the Burnham situation and they said that it
20:50
could well be Angela versus Wes. But of course Angela is, has
20:54
this very recent baggage. And however, whatever you think
20:57
of it, whether you think it was a little bit unfair that she
20:59
lost her job over it, it's just red meat to the, to the right
21:02
wing newspapers who would just go after her relentlessly.
21:05
And I think it's kind of, it's maybe a little bit unfeasible
21:07
that someone who resigned as a Deputy Prime Minister over a
21:10
situation like that so recently is then going to stand for
21:12
leader. I do think that without that she
21:15
would be the the obvious candidate.
21:18
I can't against where Streeting, who is obviously that certainly
21:22
we know about his leadership ambition.
21:24
I personally don't think that Streeting is the man to beat
21:26
reform. I think he's he's way too
21:28
connected to the the the current administration.
21:31
I think he's he he won't be seen as the the thing that Andy
21:34
Burnham's got on his side. I know I keep going back to him
21:36
is that he's not seen as this. I know, I know it's interesting
21:39
because he certainly very much was part of this kind of
21:42
government elite, you know, he was cabinet secretary and and
21:45
things like that. But since he's moved out of
21:46
Westminster to the great Manchester area, he's seen as
21:49
kind of outside the bubble looking in, talking about the
21:51
things that are wrong with the country in the way that he can.
21:54
Now, he won't be able to do that, of course, back in
21:56
Parliament, but from the outside he can.
21:58
So I think it's, yeah, Angela and Wes.
22:00
I can't really think of anyone else.
22:02
I was surprised to hear Ed Miliband fancying another Tilt
22:04
tattoo. It's a bit of a bit of a retro
22:06
throwback, but I can't see that myself.
22:08
Kitty, I've got a question for both of you actually on this
22:10
one, because this you make a really good point there about
22:14
where's, you know, being from the same wing of the party and
22:17
he's going to be seen as too linked to care to to whatever
22:20
people. But then when it comes to
22:22
reform, there's a completely different argument because you
22:25
look at the main, the big faces now that are popping up all over
22:29
reform and it's former members of Boris Johnson's government.
22:34
And you've got 2 arguments here, which are, which are sort of
22:36
going head to head where you're like, well, if the biggest, if
22:39
the biggest challenge is reform and yet the biggest faces in
22:42
reform are people from Boris Johnson's government.
22:44
So people either have it in their head that no, they're 2
22:47
links so I can't vote for them. Or actually, the general public
22:50
just isn't as quite politically savvy and don't really see the
22:53
inner machinations that all of us see, so I don't.
22:56
I'm interested in a pair of you, how you think.
22:58
It's a really long question by the way, sorry, but.
23:00
There was only one point. That was longer than you said it
23:02
was. Longer than mine.
23:03
I timed it. It was like 2 1/2 minutes.
23:05
OK. If if you can hear a question
23:07
that would do, please answer Liam. 111 response I would say
23:12
to that, which is that no, I mean, I agree.
23:15
I think that the, the influx of, of Tories from the sort of
23:19
particularly the chaotic final years of, of their
23:21
administrations is, is becoming a mistake and a problem for
23:24
reform. I think it's very hard for you
23:26
to continue to market yourselves as the kind of insurgents coming
23:29
from the outside the establishment, even though we
23:31
all know that's nonsense anyway. But it is something they've
23:34
successfully branded themselves as if you have, you know, you
23:37
are truck full of cabinet ministers who were part of the
23:40
Tory administrations that left the country in such a poor
23:43
state. I think I'm finding it it's sort
23:45
of continual. You know, the Spider man meme
23:48
where everyone's looking at each other.
23:49
It's like, well, hold on. I keep saying Robert Genrick
23:52
talk about how the Tories broke Britain and Suella Bravaman
23:55
talking about how these other parties failed.
23:57
And it's like, I I don't know how stupid you think people are.
23:59
Like we all know that you were prominent members of these
24:02
governments. I don't know whether that
24:03
translates across the board to the general public.
24:06
So far, Reform have managed to hold that off.
24:07
But I think the more people that they add to from, from those
24:10
various failed administrations, the bigger problem is going to
24:13
be for them. So have we reached peak populism
24:16
Kitty? Hard to say.
24:22
I mean I think, well, I think May will just be everyone
24:26
kicking everyone or everyone kicking the government, everyone
24:29
kicking the Tories and that and that will be the high point.
24:33
And then I think Liam's right, people will start to take a
24:36
closer look at Reform in the run up to the next general election.
24:40
And I mean Reform is still trying to get Tories over.
24:43
Not too much councillors or, you know, lower ranking ex MPs, but
24:49
I think they still want to get as many sitting Tories as they
24:52
possibly can just to bolster the numbers in Parliament.
24:55
But you're but Liam's right. Like the more, the more of them
24:57
you get, the more you look like a retirement home for failed
24:59
Tories and the more you can't present yourself as as the kind
25:03
of outsiders. But we've got quite a long time
25:07
until the next election. I mean, I don't want to sound
25:10
like a Labour Party spokesperson, but things might
25:12
improve. In fact, what Labour's sort of
25:15
putting their hopes on is that I think in Iraq to May is that in
25:19
April the leaseholders reform bill gets gets enacted and
25:24
therefore renters rights will improve.
25:27
And they can start pointing to that if the economy starts
25:30
improving. I mean, that's very slow.
25:32
You know, if inflation keeps keeps coming down, people have.
25:35
To feel it, though, don't they? I mean, you know, it's one thing
25:37
to talk about growth numbers. You've got to actually feel it.
25:39
Just want to ask you about something else and start with
25:41
you, Paul. We haven't talked about Trump
25:42
yet. I mean, Trump is such an
25:43
extraordinary presence on the global stage that he kind of
25:47
washes up on your domestic doorstep as well.
25:50
Does Farage have a Trump problem?
25:52
Has Kia dealt with Trump well enough to be rewarded for it by
25:54
the voters? What do you?
25:55
Think, I think the government certainly thinks that they've
25:57
handled Trump very well. I I don't want to make a big
26:01
deal of it, but I'm a pretty big deal and I was in Davos last
26:04
week. You mixing it?
26:05
Yeah, mixing it with the with the really is.
26:08
Yeah, I'm a, I'm a, I'm a big. Deal.
26:09
But why didn't we don't remember your speech?
26:11
Did you give a speech? I did gave many speeches.
26:14
He was after Mark Carney. They were big and beautiful.
26:17
Because people, they remember Mark Carney's speech, but not.
26:20
Anyway, listen there I. Buddy.
26:21
Oh, Matt. Jesus.
26:21
No, no. Anyway, I didn't know.
26:23
I'm just jealous that you were there.
26:25
But look, they Labour, the Labour Party think they handled
26:29
Trump over last week really, really well and like speaking to
26:33
Rachel Reeves team. But is he being rewarded for it,
26:35
do you think, by the voters, by the in the opinion polls?
26:37
It doesn't appear so at the at the moment and I think it is a
26:43
common thing that prime ministers really, I mean, Kerry
26:49
is over in China at the moment. He does really well on a foreign
26:54
stage, looking like a world leader.
26:57
Does he get appreciated for that at home?
26:59
No and no, no, no prime, no Prime Minister does on the
27:03
ground. Boris Johnson loved being in
27:05
Ukraine. You know, David Cameron, he was
27:08
all about Libya. But do you vote?
27:11
Does that really ring true with the electorate, especially when
27:14
you're in the middle of a cost of living crisis?
27:16
I think there was killed by too much presence, the fatal
27:19
attraction to George Bush, you know, too much presence on the
27:22
global stage. Liam, do you think Trump helps
27:25
Starmer and hurts Farage because of Trump's Farage?
27:29
You know Trump and Farage's friendship.
27:31
Yeah, I mean, well, Farage is definitely finding it more and
27:34
more awkward. He's having to give fairly kind
27:36
of mediocre admonishments to Trump over things like
27:40
Greenland, which he clearly finds difficult.
27:42
I think that, you know, we know that Trump, Trump doesn't pull
27:45
well in the UK, so I think Labour should keep pushing that
27:47
one. I agree with Paul.
27:49
I think that Starmer's best, greatest successes in his time
27:52
in office have been on the world stage.
27:53
But I also agree with you, Matt. I just don't think it translates
27:56
again to go back out to, you know, where I was in Saint
27:59
Helen's the other week at a council that's been run by
28:01
Labour since largely since 1974, that I fully expect to Labour to
28:05
lose in May and for reform to be at least the largest party.
28:09
No one was talking about Donald Trump.
28:10
Everyone was talking about the cost of living, about the state
28:13
of the town centre, about the fact that they can't afford food
28:16
in the shops. It's it's all anyone's talking
28:18
about. And the stuff with Trump is
28:19
seen. I think there's a bit of a
28:20
distraction on the side, even though, as you say, it has an
28:23
effect on all of that. But I don't think that Starmer's
28:25
presence on the world stage is is translating to the domestic
28:28
agenda. Katie, the the one moment I
28:30
thought that Reform might actually be in trouble because
28:33
of Trump's friendship with Farage was when he made that
28:35
comment about British troops, you know, not really getting
28:38
involved and staying away from the front line in Afghanistan.
28:41
I mean, then you're really, really, you know, touching a
28:44
neuralgic nerve, you know, in the kind of in the kind of at
28:47
the heart of the reform movement or indeed, you know, the old
28:50
labour movement. I mean, being dissing British
28:54
troops after 457 of them have been killed in Afghanistan and
28:58
thousands more had life changing injuries was a really bad idea.
29:03
And I could just see Nigel Farage squirm when that was
29:06
being said. And there will be many, many
29:08
more moments about that, you know, coming from Trump in the
29:11
future, I'm sure. So, Kitty, you know, again, is
29:13
that a problem that Farage faces?
29:16
Or is is the populist headman so strong that it doesn't really
29:19
matter? Well, Nigel Farage has done a
29:23
fairly good job of distancing himself from from Trump, I think
29:26
in the last few months and weeks.
29:31
And I was fascinated by by what the kind of chain of events that
29:34
led up to Trump sort of semi backing down.
29:36
You know, he, he got up in the on the, I think it was the
29:39
Monday morning and said, oh, I didn't really mean it.
29:42
And that was after the king and the Prime Minister had basically
29:46
the king had sent a note over the weekend expressing his
29:48
displeasure and, and Sir Keir Stamer spoke to him on the
29:51
Sunday. And I think that showed the kind
29:54
of you wonder which had the most impact.
29:56
I wonder whether it was the King's note that had had more of
29:59
an impact perhaps than Starmer kind of lecturing, lecturing
30:03
Trump on the phone. But I mean, aren't we talking
30:07
about a life post Trump though? Because by the time the general
30:10
election comes round, we're going to be looking at who's
30:12
next, aren't we? We're going to be looking at is
30:14
it JD Vance, Is it Marco Rubio? Who is who is the person in in
30:17
the White House? Democrat?
30:18
Do you remember the Democrat? Yeah, I'd like to say.
30:21
No, I'd like to say. Assuming that.
30:23
Biden. Obama.
30:25
You know Clinton. This is Channel 4.
30:26
This is Channel 4. Absolutely.
30:28
Of course, there might be a new West Wing.
30:30
Don't start profiling us, Kitty. Like that we're.
30:33
Slavishly neutral. Let me, let me finish on, let me
30:37
finish on. A very quick question to all of
30:38
you is, you know, again, if it comes to push comes to shove, is
30:46
the fact that the reformers absorbing all these Tories, even
30:49
if they're husbands, does it make them more clubbable?
30:52
You know, to people in the middle who still find the idea
30:55
of voting for reform a little bit, you know, out, you know,
30:59
off of Broadway that they'll vote for them because of all
31:02
these former Tories there. And therefore, in a contest
31:05
between Reform and Labour, does Reform win it quickly?
31:10
First you, Liam, then Kitty, then Paul I think.
31:16
The more Tories that enter, particularly from who were a
31:20
Tory government that was so roundly beaten for its failures
31:24
over 14 years, becomes a bigger problem for reform.
31:27
I think Zia Youssef has actually said they're going to stop,
31:29
they're going to have a deadline for when they stop inviting them
31:31
all in, so they're getting their applications in.
31:33
You can no longer sell us any second hand clothes after this
31:36
day. We will not accept your pre
31:39
loved items in this shop. OK, what about you?
31:41
Kitty, I mean so, so and I just think that that will become a
31:44
bigger problem for them the more they come in here.
31:46
All right, Kitty, what do you think?
31:48
Is Reform unacceptable still for so many people that they even if
31:51
they don't like the Labour Party, they can't quite bring
31:53
themselves to see Nigel Farage and #10?
31:56
I think actually it's the economics that's the problem, is
31:58
that they're so all over the place and they're slightly hazy
32:02
economic plans. It's like you never quite know
32:04
which way they're going to jump. Are they?
32:07
Are they, you know, I, I for ages thought that Nigel Farage
32:10
was a Thatcherite. And then you look at some of
32:12
these state control of, of coal industry and you think, hang on
32:16
a second, this isn't very Thatcherite and and welfare
32:19
payments as well, and which is, is an odd place to land.
32:23
I thought for, for reform. So I think we need to drill down
32:27
and more into what they actually think.
32:29
But I think actually people are projecting on to reform at the
32:32
moment the same way that perhaps they're projecting onto Andy
32:34
Burnham. You know, these are outsiders
32:36
and that they will come in and they will do what I think I want
32:39
them to do rather than necessarily what they what
32:42
they're saying. So, Paul, maybe Keir Starmer's
32:44
the pot plant of British politics, sort of maligned,
32:47
ignored, not watered enough, you know, written off, and suddenly
32:50
he's still there. Have you just got a call or a
32:53
text from Morgan McSweeney? I'm sure that Morgan would use
32:57
slightly more flattering language about his boss, but
33:01
you're writing him off too, right?
33:03
Hey, Stammer. Versus Stammer versus Farage,
33:06
who becomes Prime Minister. I'm not right, I know.
33:08
It's a parliamentary system. I'm not writing him off that
33:11
fence. His, his own and many of his own
33:13
MPs have already written him off.
33:17
I think ultimately what it what it comes down to.
33:19
Back to what Kitty was saying earlier on, the mechanism is far
33:23
from simple and what we know from history, the Labour
33:27
backbenches and the people who would be challenging are not
33:31
happy or not overly keen on wielding the knife.
33:34
And those two things may be the thing that makes Keir Starmer
33:37
stay in post for as long as possible.
33:38
I've just had a brilliant idea turn the podcast on.
33:40
I want from each of you a single word that sums up the last, you
33:43
know, year and a half of Labour government.
33:44
One word ball, one word. Disappointing, disappointing
33:48
Kitty. Phonetically disappointing. 2
33:53
words. OK, Liam.
33:55
If it's got a dash in the middle, I think it's one word
33:57
U-turn. OK, all right, OK, that's it.
34:01
Very encouraging stuff from all of you.
34:03
None of you are going to be on Morgan Mcsweeney's Christmas
34:06
card list next year, I fear. Anyway, who knows?
34:09
Liam Thorpe, Kitty Donaldson, Poor Mike Namara.
34:12
Thank you very much to all of you.
34:13
That was the forecast. Hope you enjoyed it.
34:15
See you next time.