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The Trump corollary: Venezuela, Monroe Doctrine, & return of hemisphere power politics · Cultural Wars | America Out Loud News

0:12
Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, whatever you're uh listening.
0:15
This is Todd Royal.
0:17
Welcome to jail power energy and real politics.
0:21
I am honored to have my guest today, David Blackman.
0:24
David, 40 plus years in the energy industry is on one of the leading podcasts himself, really in the world right now is Stu Turley.
0:32
Yeah.
0:33
If you're not reading, if you're not reading David and Forbes, if you're not subscribing to his substack, uh I find David right now to be the clearest thinker, meaning he's taking very complex uh topics, and he's making them where all of us can understand that.
0:49
Uh, that is an art.
0:51
And so with that, I welcome my uh my guest David Blackman.
0:55
Good morning.
0:56
Good morning, David.
0:57
Thank you for having me.
0:57
It's always a pleasure.
0:59
Good to be with you, David.
1:00
You wrote an article about Venezuela, which I reached out to you and said I thought is the clearest thing I've read so far.
1:07
You break it down again.
1:09
His energy absurdities is a must thing you should be doing daily on Substack.
1:16
David's volume.
1:17
There's one thing about that.
1:18
I rebranded it to to be energy additions.
1:22
Fantastic.
1:23
Because I just don't think there's an energy transition anymore, and we're we're doing an energy edition, and so I just rebranded it.
1:30
Okay, okay.
1:31
Well, thank you for that.
1:32
Well, let's jump into Venezuela.
1:34
And I'm gonna throw out a big question to you, which is now we've read that that President Trump has told now the vice president, they're now the acting president of Venezuela.
1:44
Not only are we going to take your oil, which I'd say should have been done in the second Iraq war with Bush too, but I want you to get rid of all Cuban intelligent agents.
1:55
I guess it's come out that Delta Force killed 32 of them when they were down there.
1:59
Yeah, um, I want 10,000 Cuban troops out.
2:02
I want the Iranians out.
2:04
Um, I don't care how you pay back China, but we're probably not paying them back.
2:08
Get China out.
2:09
We want Russian weapons.
2:11
We want Cuba to um to basically collapse because they use all that Venezuelan oil that's not going there anymore.
2:20
And then I'll throw this on top of you too.
2:22
Let's throw the other thing where President Trump sent Air Force One.
2:25
I want Greenland, Prime Minister of Denmark goes he'll collapse NATO, and he shrugged his shoulders and said, Okay.
2:32
When you look at all everything I just said to you, and going back to your piece from last week, it feels like the world has changed a lot.
2:41
Tell me your analysis, tell the audience where you see all of this going.
2:47
Well, um, first let me just start at the beginning, you know, with with Venezuela and what's happening there with the oil, because the oil is a big piece of this, it's not all of it, but it's a big focal point of it.
3:01
I don't think, for example, um, if Venezuela's main business was growing dates or bananas or something, we would have done this, okay.
3:12
That that prize is there, it's a 17 trillion dollar prize at current oil prices.
3:17
If you believe the research reserve estimates of more than 300 billion barrels of oil, so that's bigger than every economy on earth except for the United States and China.
3:28
So it's a big deal from a money standpoint.
3:31
Uh, I think we have to talk carefully because the president is being accused, and America is being accused by the international uh media of stealing this oil.
3:42
That's not the plan.
3:43
Uh we're gonna control the the capture of it, the production of it, the export of it, the refining of it, but it isn't gonna go into the United States treasury.
3:56
Um, the current Venezuela law requires that Petavesa get a 50% working interest in every oil project in the country.
4:04
That law still exists.
4:06
I believe the Trump administration's plan is to honor that law.
4:10
They, you know, or revise it maybe for Petavesa, the national oil company is Petavesa to get maybe a smaller percentage than 50%.
4:20
But the Venezuelan people are going to benefit from the additional oil production.
4:24
What's going to be restored, at least if the oil companies want it, is the right to produce down there for Exon Mobile was there before Hugo Chavez nationalized the industry.
4:38
Uh Conaco Phillips had a big presence there.
4:41
Chevron had a bigger presence than it currently does.
4:44
Chevron has maintained its license to operate throughout all of this.
4:47
It's the only big American company that has.
5:06
Today it's around 800,000 barrels a day.
5:09
Most of it produced and exported by Chevron.
5:13
And you're right, you know, I mean, Cuba uh does benefit from a lot of that cheap oil.
5:18
They get heavily discounted oil price from Venezuela that that runs there that people don't know.
5:25
But the most power grids in the Caribbean islands, including Cuba, run on fuel oil, not natural gas or coal or anything else.
5:33
And so communist government has benefited from that very discounted oil from Venezuela.
5:40
Go ahead.
5:40
Sorry.
5:41
David, uh, no, no, no.
5:42
Just so the audience understands what David just said is that when Venezuela gets oil out of the ground, puts it on a storage tanker, takes it over to Cuba, they're burning that oil for electricity.
5:55
Now, the context, Saudi Arabia does the same thing, but yes, that's considered just about the dirtiest way that you can produce electricity.
6:04
And correct me too, David, it's fairly inefficient as well.
6:06
Correct.
6:07
Very inefficient.
6:08
Okay.
6:08
Okay, so please very inefficient.
6:10
Please continue.
6:11
But it's, you know, it's just the the model that was established uh in the early 20th century and it's endured on these island countries.
6:19
So without that oil, Cuba's government's gonna collapse.
6:22
That'll be the first domino to fall if this plan all works as I suspect they want it to work.
6:28
Um, you know, I I think just I'm speculating on a lot of this because you know, I just think the plan is to get China and Russia out of the Western hemisphere.
6:42
I mean, I think that's the overarching plan.
6:44
I believe the White House uh believes that uh China and Russia are both preparing for a widened war effort uh beyond Ukraine, beyond Taiwan, and are going about securing America's national and energy security in advance of that, and not just America, but for the Western Hemisphere, and that'll include Greenland at some point.
7:07
Uh, I believe it's going to be a business deal made for Greenland, not an invasion, like some are speculating.
7:13
Had an argument with Domberg about all this on a podcast yesterday.
7:17
Uh, he believes they're we're going to invade.
7:19
And you know, uh, Domberg's really smart guy, and uh he may be right, but I just believe there'll be a business deal made on that regard.
7:28
But anyway, back to Venezuela.
7:30
The one of the big questions, and I just read a Texas Tribune article about it, you know.
7:36
And there's articles at every major news outlet.
7:39
All the oil companies, they're reluctant to go in.
7:42
They don't want to go back in to Venezuela.
7:44
It's too uncertain.
7:45
Yada yada yada, blah, blah, blah.
7:48
Listen, you don't put the president of the United States out there in that press conference last Saturday to say all this stuff about it and keep saying all of this stuff about it that he's continued to say for the last four days, unless advanced discussions with these very oil companies have already taken place.
8:04
Okay.
8:04
There's going to be a meeting with the CEOs on Friday at the White House with the president, Marco Rubio and the vice president, everybody else.
8:12
But I believe the outcome of that meeting is predetermined.
8:16
I mean, the the immensity of the prize in Venezuela is well worth the risk.
8:22
And yeah, it's going to be a lot of billions of dollars are going to have to be invested to revitalize that industry to fix the infrastructure that Petavesa and the and the Chinese and the Russians have allowed to deteriorate.
8:36
Um, so it's going to be big investments, but this is what companies like Chevron and Exon Mobile do.
8:44
Look what what they've done.
8:46
It's just in the the country next door in Guyana over the last seven or eight years.
8:50
Exon Mobile has invested 60 billion dollars of capital in eight years of its own capital funds, 45% interest in that Guyana offshore operation.
9:04
They're producing almost a million barrels a day now.
9:06
They're gonna ramp that up to two and a half to three million barrels a day in this tiny little country with 800,000 people.
9:13
This is what those companies do.
9:16
It's the kind of project they do.
9:19
And yes, they're gonna be willing to go do this.
9:22
I mean, the government of the United States is going to most likely provide them with zero interest loans to reduce the cost of capital.
9:31
They're gonna force the Venezuelan government to rapidly expedite any permitting delays that are you know parts of their their internal loss to reduce the cost of permitting and getting in to rebuild the infrastructure.
9:45
But this is going to happen, okay.
9:47
The all these articles that are out there, so oh, experts are claiming Exxon and Chevron don't want to do this.
9:53
Hell, ex look at what Chevron's persevered in that country for the last 17 years.
9:59
Well, so haven't they?
10:00
Of course they want to do it.
10:00
Everyone's been there since like what 23?
10:02
Since like they've been there over 100 years now, correct?
10:05
Oh, yeah.
10:06
I mean, they've been there forever.
10:08
And if of course they want the leases back that were stolen from them by the Hugo Chavez regime.
10:14
Of course they do.
10:16
And so what's going to happen is you're going to revitalize that oil sector.
10:20
You're going to be sending, you know, you're going to add, I believe they'll be able to add half a million to a million barrels of oil a day to Venezuela's production just in the next couple of years.
10:32
And that's going to put further downward pressure on oil prices.
10:35
And yeah, prices are pretty low already.
10:38
And it's hard to make a profit, but but these companies also have to plan for the long term.
10:44
Yeah.
10:44
And in the oil business, what people need to understand, and I'll I'll stop after this.
10:49
No, no, no, understand.
10:50
I wouldn't you say that what you're going to say, please.
10:52
Okay.
10:53
When you're in the oil business, if you're if you're a corporation producer in the oil business, if you're not increasing your production and your inventory of potential drilling locations, you're going out of business.
11:07
If your production's going down and your number of drilling locations is diminishing, you're essentially going out of business.
11:13
And this is what corporations strive to avoid.
11:16
Because when investors see that happening within your company, the your stock price begins to suffer, and you have a harder time securing capital for your projects, and it becomes a vicious cycle.
11:28
So of course, Exon Mobile wants to have its leases restored that it owned prior to Chavez in Venezuela with the billions of barrels of additional reserves that represents and the thousands of new drilling locations to add to their inventory internationally.
11:46
And these are companies that don't believe that demand for oil is about to peak before 2030, like some of these lunatics on the far left believe.
11:56
They believe robust demand is gonna continue for decades to come.
12:01
So of course they want those reserves in their their company's inventory.
12:06
Yeah, of course.
12:07
So you know, I I just I look at these studies saying, Oh, it's gonna cost 183 billion dollars, and that's too much.
12:15
Well, that's over 15 years.
12:16
That's a you know, it's a big bite, but it's not undoable for these countries look companies like this.
12:22
So anyway, it's I'm a lot more optimistic about this than some people are.
12:27
Yeah, and I would I would probably follow your route as well, and probably um I damn near worship Doomberg, but even on the the Yeah, I do too.
12:36
Yeah, I mean questioning the prognostications that guy makes and that team of his and you know it it's it's fairly stunning.
12:46
I mean, he called this a year ago on Venezuela, you know, he called the Mark Carney thing, he called the peak the peak cheap oil thing, which yeah, I I don't I I think people don't realize on the whole peak cheap oil that oil's an everything.
13:01
I mean, I I think that's where I go with you know uh you know Ron Stein who you know talks so much about the 6,000 products, and people don't realize we've got to have this stuff.
13:11
Um, I'm curious what what's been a little curious to me about all of this is why did the David, what's your thoughts on why did the Russians and the Chinese, but particularly the Chinese, because if I understand correctly, don't they have a 50% or 25% stake with either Chevron or Exxon Mobile and Guyana next door?
13:31
Why do they all 20% okay?
13:33
20%.
13:34
Why did the Chinese and the Russians allow that oil infrastructure to deteriorate so badly?
13:42
Well, because I mean they have to go, they have to deal with Petavisa and Petavasa's uh expertise on staff has been greatly diminished because of all the outflow of people.
13:52
I mean, the out migration has robbed that company of internal expertise, and you know, they don't.
13:59
I mean, China and Russia, those companies are also in the business of making profits, and and they don't haven't wanted to incur the cost of trying to upgrade the rest of that infrastructure.
14:11
So they've been they haven't been trying to revitalize the industry, they've just been trying to suck all the oil out of it they can at the cheapest way they can and and work within Petavisa's structure.
14:24
So, you know, it's a different thing that they've been doing there.
14:27
They've been but basically raping and pillaging the economy of Venezuela, okay.
14:31
That's what they've been doing.
14:33
Yeah, the United States, that's not the plan.
14:37
As much as the media wants it to be and wants to think Trump's a monster and wants to, you know, believe the worst things about him.
14:44
That's not what the United States has planned here.
14:47
The plan is to revitalize that industry for the benefit of the Western Hemisphere and the people of Venezuela, and the security of the Western Hemisphere and the people of Venezuela.
14:58
And I'm not saying we're we're just this altruistic country, it's in the United States' benefit to do it that way in the long term, and so that's what is going to happen here.
15:09
And these companies like Exxon and Chevron, the other side of that too, is you have to realize from their own reputational perspective, they can't be seen as companies to be a part of any plan that is going to do to that country what the Chinese and Russians have been doing, okay, because it will destroy their company reputation and further damage their ability to again you you have to be able to raise capital, and and that capital comes from big banks and big investment firms that are very concerned about corporate reputations, and so they exon and and Chevron and Conaco can't be seen to be a part of any operation that would do that to Venezuela.
15:57
So that's not the plan, regardless of what the media and all these quote experts say.
16:02
Yeah, it's it's a little stunning.
16:04
Okay, let me uh uh because you know, David, I've read you for years, I've seen you on many podcasts, got an interview you previously.
16:12
So let me be I'll be your critic right now because I know you're you're fine with you know, I'll be the critic and and no, that's good.
16:19
I need okay, I'll be I'll be I'll be the other side for you to critic.
16:24
So if we say the Venezuela's oil reserves, because we get critics on this show, good lord, some things people say crack me up.
16:32
Um so we say Venezuela's oil reserves are worth let's call them around 17 trillion dollars is based on because they've got about 300 billion barrels of oil at today's prices come to about 17 trillion.
16:46
Um obviously I'm using approximations.
16:49
How realistic is the evaluation though in practice?
16:53
Because obviously we have the degrade of all the the state of their assets, right?
16:58
Along with these technical barriers, we've you know, bezida that we we have folks like you have left the country and left and and left the um the company.
17:08
So how realistic is that valuation that in practice?
17:12
It's probably not you know, it's but because of exactly what you said, there's been a lot of deterioration.
17:19
I mean, one of the first thing that's gonna have to be done is to go back into hundreds and hundreds of wells to to rework them and and you know, and and fix the the equipment on them uh to make them run more efficiently and produce properly, and uh so there's gonna be a big upfront investment in just restoring some of those fields to working order, and um, so yeah, there's a lot of that, and the reserve estimates to begin with, you know, were based on a lot of assumptions.
17:49
I mean, I mean, when we do reserve estimates in the United States, they're they're based on strict rules set by the securities and exchange commission, and and they're based on what's producible today, proven reserves that have been demonstrated by drilling projects, um, that that can be produced with current technology.
18:10
Now, those rules at the SEC don't govern those the estimate processes in Venezuela, yeah.
18:17
So likely that 33 billion barrels of uh producible reserves at current prices and current technology, um, is an overstatement.
18:28
Okay, still there's a buttload of oil in the ground underneath Venezuela.
18:34
Okay, no one should doubt that.
18:35
Yeah, maybe it's 200 billion barrels, okay.
18:38
But that's still a hell of a lot of oil.
18:41
That's that's that is a yeah, that's a buttload of oil, and uh and it's a big big prize, and it's what these big companies are in business to recover and produce and and refine and sell, and um and so I just think this is uh an opportunity that those companies aren't gonna be able, you know, they're just not gonna have the ability to walk away, regardless of any internal or investor pressures to avoid it.
19:08
I just don't think for long-term considerations related to reserves and drilling opportunities.
19:16
I I just I don't see how they walk away from it.
19:19
Okay, I'm gonna continue to be your critic, okay?
19:22
So you you dad gun you you answered the question honestly, you know, you're supposed to be uh I try you're supposed to be a remember, you're supposed to be a crazy mago right winger.
19:32
So well, that's me, yeah.
19:34
Yeah, you you you sounded like someone who's been in the industry for 40 plus years.
19:38
Damn you, David Blackman.
19:41
Um, I'm a boomer too, so that makes me oh good lord, we're we're done with you.
19:46
This interview is over.
19:49
Okay, so your critics, David, of your article, and and just so we know I'm with David Blackman.
19:55
Read him on Forbes, read his Substack.
19:58
This is the clearest thinker.
20:00
You're going to find on this where it's e we can all actually understand what's being said and being written.
20:06
But your critics would look at you and I'm your critic right now, and I'd go, well, wait a minute, David.
20:11
Isn't this 21st century resource imperialism?
20:14
Like my left ring left wing word there.
20:16
So then where do we draw if we're this 21st century resource imperialism?
20:23
Where do we draw the ethical line between US strategic interest and neo-imperialism?
20:29
For our listeners, Neo is just Greek for new.
20:32
So it's my it's it's basically me going, hey, isn't the United States now an imperial power similar to the Japanese of World War II, which was you know the imperial Japanese Empire?
20:43
Can't we say, oh my god, we're like imperial Japanese Empire that just goes in and steals and rapes and pillages uh versus U.S.
20:53
strategic interests.
20:54
How would you answer my inflammatory questions?
20:57
Well, that's certainly you know an allegation that's being made.
21:00
Um, I have um mixed feelings about it all any time we send our military personnel into harm's way.
21:07
Yeah, I have very mixed feelings, and you know, uh my knee-jerk reaction is always to think, oh geez, are we going back to 2001 and Iraq and Afghanistan and more forever wars and regime change and all this nonsense that the Bush people did?
21:22
And uh, I think that's a very legitimate concern.
21:25
So I don't want to downplay that.
21:27
What I try to do on energy though is analyze, you know, what the thought presses uh processes in the White House must be and and and what our objectives clearly are, and I think the objectives are pretty clear, and um, you know, will it work?
21:43
And so, you know, I I understand the imperialism claim, and um what I would say to that is this isn't Japan going into the Philippines or China uh prior to World War II to just confiscate all their natural resources for their own uses, it's not Germany invading uh Kazakhstan and and other and other ventures they engaged in prior to their invasion of Poland to secure supplies of oil to run their military machines, okay, for their own pure imperialist uses.
22:17
Yep.
22:17
This is a deposition of a criminal regime, okay, Maduro, who was indicted by a federal grand jury in Manhattan of all places uh in 2020 for crimes under US law, uh a guy who has clung to power despite clearly having lost two consecutive election campaigns, uh, and just remain refused to leave office under a military junta, basically, and um it is then you know, uh restoring the assets that had been owned by these US companies prior to the previous president Hugo Chavez confiscating their assets and and then later selling them off to the Chinese and the Russians, uh, so it's a different thing, and it's a revitalization of plan to revitalize an industry for the benefit of both the United States, yes.
23:14
I mean, it's not as I said earlier, it's not completely altruistic, but also with a plan for it to benefit and revitalize the economy and the people of Venezuela, and so is it imperialism?
23:29
I guess maybe under a certain definition, but I'm not a diplomat and I'm not an expert on all that.
23:35
I'm just kind of trying to look at is the energy plan gonna work, and I think it probably can.
23:40
Yeah, yes.
23:44
Gosh, it's such a great it's it's just so complicated, but it's not, but it is it is it's no, it is, it's totally complicated, it's very, very complicated.
23:56
It is, and so uh, as a reminder, David also has 40 plus years of experience in the oil in the oil energy markets.
24:06
I mean, his his experience is vast.
24:09
So let's ask an even bigger question, and let's be non-complicated.
24:13
So you talk about in the piece what the White House calls, uh, and for our listeners, I'm doing this in quotes, Trump corollary.
24:22
It's similar to the Monroe Doctrine.
24:25
Um, we now know that Teddy Roosevelt had talked about the Monroe Doctrine, and so now people are even calling it the Don Roe, the Donro Doctrine, yeah.
24:34
Taking obviously the Don of Donald Trump with the row of Monroe and saying, okay, it's it's a new one.
24:40
Um, so in your view, this kind of Trump corollary, this Donro Doctrine.
24:46
How does this differ from traditional US foreign policy?
24:52
And what does it mean for U.S.
24:53
influence in the Western Hemisphere?
24:55
Yeah, so I mean, I you know, and and this language was all contained in the strategic plan, the updated strategic plan.
25:02
It was released in late November of last year, and uh, I think a lot of people didn't go read that plan because it was all plainly spelled out.
25:10
But that was one of the most plain national security document I have ever read, right?
25:16
Exactly.
25:16
Yeah, it was all very, I mean, it was actually kind of what I would have written, you know.
25:21
I mean, to try to put it in words that everyone can understand, yeah.
25:24
Um, and not engage in a lot of legal ease.
25:28
And that's what Teddy Roosevelt did in his corollary too, which was essentially just restating the mon the principles in the Monroe Doctrine, which is that the United States was not gonna allow hostile foreign actors to gain a foothold in the Western hemisphere hemisphere.
25:44
Uh, you know, Roosevelt was worried about the Germans back then, the United States today is worried about China and Russia.
25:52
Uh, but it's the same basic principles that were laid out in the Monroe Doctrine in what was it, uh 1825, I think.
26:00
Yeah, I think so when that was laid out, and that is that we're not going to just sit back and allow China and Russia to make all these inroads and to secure all these natural resources in the Western hemisphere and to dominate these governments, like is happened in Venezuela and happened in Cuba.
26:20
And and we're also at the same time gonna uh exercise the principles of the Monroe Doctrine to clean out all the drug runners and the human traffickers.
26:29
Well, what's wrong with that?
26:31
I mean, I look at that and I think, well, isn't that a positive thing?
26:35
I mean, we've lost a hundred thousand people every year, the fentanyl and other illegal narcotics coming into this country.
26:42
That's twice as many people as we lost in the Vietnam War every year that's been happening.
26:49
So don't we have a right to defend our population?
26:54
I mean, and that's essentially the the emphasis that was put on this corollary to the Monroe Doctrine in that strategic plan.
27:05
And um, so you could see this coming, and it was obvious Venezuela would be the first target, I think.
27:11
You know, after this, uh you you're likely to have in some form, I don't know what form it'll take, but it's obvious that Colombia's got a problem with the United States big time because they're another very big center of both human trafficking and narcotics trafficking.
27:29
Mexico is going to have a problem at some point, you know.
27:34
Um, and and so the the targets for this are obvious, and you can like it or not.
27:43
I'm I'm not trying to make value judgments on it.
27:47
I'm just saying this is what the administration's plan is.
27:50
Can it work?
27:51
How does it benefit us as a country?
27:54
Does it enhance our energy security?
27:56
Does it enhance our national security?
27:59
Are we really entering a time when China and Russia are planning to open larger wars on different fronts?
28:06
Uh, I mean, I think all of that is in play here.
28:09
And you know, I I don't think it does us any good to kind of ignore the clear signs that are being sent here.
28:17
Uh, I think we we all need to recognize what the signals are and make value judgments of our own and you know, start kind of preparing our own lives uh for a potential period of uh international conflict that I hope and pray doesn't arrive, but it sure seems like the White House is pretty concerned about it.
28:39
Yeah, you know, I I personally don't think that Russia is gonna open up a wider war, Putin even said last week.
28:47
I don't want to invade, but God, the Germans and the Poles and the Lithuanians and the Estonians, and they make these moves that you go, you guys don't have the energy for it.
29:00
You not even not the physical, but you don't even have the exigules that are needed to put together these war machines.
29:07
What is the Germans said they want to spend 400 billion dollars?
29:10
Yeah, but they can't do that, they can't afford that, they don't have the the money to do that.
29:15
What what fantasy land are you guys living in?
29:17
Let me uh this is I want to take it back back to energy though again, because I've I've talked about this publicly, I've written about it myself before, and saying, if it were me, if I were president or I'll make myself king Todd on the energy front, I would go to the Indians, kind of taking along this this energy, let's use energy as a soft power.
29:41
I'd go to the Indians and go, I want to give you US nuclear technology.
29:46
What can we do to build SMRs or all around the country to desalinate your water?
29:51
And then I would go to the Chinese and go, tell me what would it take for you guys to sign a 50.
30:00
Year agreement, we'll give you natural gas at this price.
30:04
We will set a 50 year price for you to try to lower the temperature.
30:08
Meaning, you know, energy is a soft power.
30:10
Yeah.
30:10
My own critics had pushed back on me and said I'm grossly naive and trying to cut a deal with the the Chinese communist party, which I think I've heard him said, you know, the greatest crime syndicate in the history of mankind is the Chinese Communist Party.
30:25
Um what do you think about that?
30:28
Because when I think of the Trump corollary and this doctrine, I think of it from an energy standpoint.
30:34
But to broaden this discussion a little bit, and because yeah, it feels like Venezuela's the first of many dominoes, and then we'll take a break here in just a few minutes.
30:44
What do you think about my piece of India, my piece of China, and me saying it sounds like we're in agreement?
30:52
We don't think Russia wants to go past where they are currently.
30:56
What are your thoughts on all that?
30:57
Well, Russia, you know, concerns about Russia and and uh its Navy mainly is a big driver of of Trump's interest in Greenland, okay?
31:08
Because when you look at it at where Greenland really is situated, not on the Mercator map, but on a map with you know a downward view on the Arctic.
31:17
Yeah, it's in the most strategic position to you know put your anti-missile uh arrays, you know, you know, and and have military bases to patrol that part of the waters where that's where all the Russian submarines come down to get into the Atlantic.
31:32
And and so strategically, you know, that is a key military objective, you know.
31:38
The United States needs to have a presence on the island for sure.
31:42
Yeah, does that mean we have to invade that island to obtain that presence?
31:46
We already have a base there, a U.S.
31:48
Space Force base.
31:49
Uh no, we don't.
31:50
We need to make a business deal.
31:52
We don't have to invade and take the island by force.
31:55
Uh where China's concerned, I don't think you can do a deal with the Chinese government like that.
31:59
I I do I mean, I wish you could, but I I just uh you your your description of them is the biggest crime syndicate in world history is pretty good, I think.
32:10
And uh I so it's just hard to enter into any kind of a contract with them and expect them to honor it.
32:16
They just don't do that.
32:18
And uh but India, on the other hand, I think it's a great idea.
32:22
Yeah, we we should be doing all sorts of business with India.
32:25
Uh and and and if for no other reason that to try to get them out of the Chinese sphere of influence, because you know, they're all part of the BRICS organization.
32:36
I mean, that's a problem with Brazil in our own hemispheres is Brazil's one of the founding members of BRICS, which is the rival organization is trying to to take leverage, geopolitical leverage away from the United States and Europe.
32:50
Um so yeah, I mean, I think we should be doing as much business as possible with India, and the same thing is true of Brazil, but you know, the the president Brazil's got its own illegitimate president in office who stole the election in 2020.
33:04
And uh I mean it's just obvious by now, I think everyone understands that that was a stolen election, just as as Maduro's elections were stolen.
33:16
Um so it's hard to deal with Brazil right now because of Lula da Silva being in office, just like it's hard to deal with Mexico because the cartels run the government of Mexico.
33:27
And it's a failed state, and everyone knows that too.
33:31
So I I think Trump is a lot like I I keep going back to the comparison to Teddy Roosevelt because the reason Roosevelt's bust is on Mount Rushmore, and the reason why he's considered one of the great presidents in American history is the same reason the others are on there, because they were willing to take on the hard issues facing our country while they were in office, and not every president is willing to do that.
34:00
I mean, and you're not it you're not necessarily a popular figure while you're in office for taking on those hard issues.
34:10
Oh gosh, oh, I want to come back.
34:12
Okay, I gotta stop there enforcing because I gotta take a break, but okay, sorry.
34:16
Oh my goodness, I think I need you for another 10 hours.
34:19
Um we're gonna come back and then we're gonna lead off here.
34:23
I want to ask you about U.S.
34:24
presidents.
34:24
I think you just brought up an amazing point.
34:26
So I'm here with David Blackman.
34:29
I'm your host Todd Royal of Um Geop, you know, Geopower, Energy, and real politics.
34:35
We will be right back.
34:36
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37:34
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38:03
Uh in the energy industry, oil markets.
38:07
David is a prolific writer, forms his own substack.
38:11
David is what I will tell my listeners, the clearest thinker, meaning he can take the complex and make it for all of us to understand it of anyone I I see in the market right now, the marketplace of uh ideas and analysis.
38:26
David, you said something uh first half of our show.
38:31
You ended you're talking about U.S.
38:32
presidents doing hard things, and I think that's great.
38:35
Why do you think gosh?
38:38
I feel like I'm well, I'm going back to graduate school right now, but why do you think if I take the last I don't know, let's call it since um maybe LBJ, Jimmy Carter, maybe a little bit even let's go, you know.
38:53
Let's go with Gerald Ford.
38:55
Gerald Ford until right now.
38:58
Why is it that seemingly all of these US presidents do not want to do hard things?
39:04
And I would I would counter in many ways I could see it with Republican presidents as much as these left wing democratic presidents, Carter's left wing, Obama's left wing, uh Clinton's left wing, the flirted being, you know, kind of a Truman Democrat.
39:22
Carter was just incompetent, yeah.
39:24
Yeah, Carter, yeah.
39:26
Well, he was left wing too.
39:27
Yeah, he was left wing.
39:28
Um kind of that Christian merciful left wing thing that he had going on.
39:34
Why do you think these guys um sorry for all my church going folks who listen who listen to me?
39:43
It drives me nuts.
39:44
The you don't understand the gospels, you act like that's another show.
39:49
Sorry, that's for another time.
39:51
Why do you think these U.S.
39:52
presidents?
39:53
I'm gonna say from Ford to Joe Biden.
39:58
Would you believe Joe Biden was the president?
40:00
Or not legitimately, he was there for four years.
40:03
Joe Biden in his auto pen, yeah.
40:04
Joe Biden is auto pin, but he was there.
40:08
God help us, and the Lord was merciful to us.
40:10
He was there.
40:11
Why does it seem we've had, let's just call it 40 four almost 50 years now of we don't want to look at anything, we don't want to do anything hard.
40:22
What why do you think that took place?
40:24
I'm just curious.
40:26
Well, first, just one exception.
40:27
I think Reagan did take on the he killed the Soviet Union.
40:32
You're right.
40:32
So I mean, I think we have to give him credit for yes, sir.
40:35
We do, we do.
40:36
But I think otherwise, I mean, that's absolutely right.
40:40
Um, you know, and I there's a lot of factors in that just half having mainly to do with stupid political considerations because they can't see past their own polling data, right?
40:51
And uh, and they all use the same consultants and they all use the same polling firms, and and uh, you know, and they all get the same advice from the same stupid bad people, yeah, like you know, Bush got his advice from the Donald Rumsfelds and the Dick Cheney neocons who who thought we could just you know waltz into Iraq and we'd be welcome to zeroes and everything would be you know coming up roses, and it would be just like after the American revolution here in the colonies in the late 18th century.
41:21
I mean, just the most naive, stupid people who could possibly have been running the U.S.
41:25
government at the time.
41:27
Um so there's a reluctance, I think, just because you get told, well, if you say this or you do this, it's gonna cost you two points in your public opinion polls, and oh my goodness, we might lose three seats in the midterms.
41:40
And Trump hears that, and he thinks, who the hell are you, and why am I paying you to do anything for me?
41:46
I don't care about that.
41:47
Just get out of my office.
41:49
And I I believe this is what he wanted to do in his first presidency, but then he was had this onslaught of a slow rolling coup d'etat effort mounted by the Democrats and the corrupt people at the Justice Department during his presidency, and and he just got paralyzed.
42:06
Now, so he's doing what he wanted to do eight years ago.
42:10
Um but I do believe, you know, plus we we just don't elect good people to the presidency.
42:18
Let's face it.
42:19
I mean, Bill Clinton is one of the most awful individuals who ever inhabited the United States of America, and he's really, when you look at it, probably the most successful president since Reagan, really.
42:31
Oh, sure.
42:31
I mean, mainly because mainly because the Republicans won the House in '94 and forced him to balance the budget and do all that stuff, but still, you know.
42:41
But Poppy Bush, look at how long it took Poppy Bush to take out one guy in Iraq.
42:48
I mean, you you know, we we invaded we we did desert storm, and what was that '92.
42:55
91, 92, yeah.
42:56
And we had 300,000 soldiers on the ground and the air force and the marines and you know, Navy, and you know, all this stuff going on for a couple of weeks.
43:06
Uh, and and still didn't take the government out of power, yeah.
43:10
Um, just ineffectual, feckless individuals, most of whom are hopelessly corrupt when they come into office.
43:18
Uh, some of whose background is a complete mystery to this day, like Barack Obama.
43:24
Um, yeah, you know, and Bush was an old CIA guy, so you know, I mean it just there's all these different factors, but it mainly just comes down to being too timid and not willing to take on big things because you might lose three seats in the house in the midterms, and uh Trump in his second presidency isn't at all worried about that.
43:46
Well, I think he's worried about it.
43:47
He's worried about losing that house majority because he knows then we're gonna have two years of nothing but a fake impeachments like we did eight years ago, yeah.
43:56
Um, but be that as it may, he's trying to do what he wanted to do in his first term and get China and Russia out of this hemisphere.
44:05
And um he's he's a unique individual.
44:10
He's obviously um what Doomberg likes to say is that everything everyone says about Trump is true, okay, both the good and the bad his critics and his uh and his admirers, yeah, right.
44:23
Right.
44:24
But you know, he's the closest thing we've had to Teddy Roosevelt in the White House since Teddy Roosevelt.
44:29
He really is.
44:30
I mean, I would agree.
44:31
I I urge everyone, there's a great two-part bio uh documentary on Teddy Roosevelt's presidency, uh, or his life really, uh, that was recorded by the history channel in 2023.
44:46
It's fantastic, and just spend four hours watching that, you'll have a great understanding of why I compare Trump to Roosevelt.
44:54
They're both wild men, they both say a lot of stuff, they're not afraid to say what's on their mind, and they hold these wide, you know, do these 90-minute speeches, meandering speeches, and say a lot of stuff that they're talking points, monkeys standing behind them, cringe and think, oh my god, what are you saying?
45:10
And sure, and uh, but it all works out in the end, and uh so it's it's very Rooseveltian thing that we're going through now.
45:18
And Roosevelt, you know, was popular with a lot of people, but he was also hated during his presidency by a big portion of his own political party, and of course, the Democrats in Congress hated him.
45:31
Uh, and the truly great presidents, when you really look at US history, the truly great presidents while they're in office, are broadly not just opposed, but hated by major factions of the American public, even George Washington, even Thomas Jefferson, the the other others on Mount Rushmore with Roosevelt were all broadly not just opposed, but hated, yeah, while they were in office.
46:03
So, but that's the price you pay for dealing directly and bluntly with the truly big threats to our country while you're in that office, and so it's it it becomes a kind of a mixed bag for these individuals.
46:19
And by and large, through our history, we've elected people who don't have the courage to do that.
46:26
And I think that really explains that that would have been the short answer to your question.
46:31
No, no, no.
46:31
I it okay.
46:33
Then I want to stand this political route and bring it back to Venezuela as well, and bear with me here in the audience as well.
46:40
I've always been mystified by Dick Cheney.
46:43
Um, from his price controls that he tried in the Nixon administration that you know, he had a background in one of the most influential political figures in American history, and and had a background in knowing that would never work, yeah.
46:59
Um, take a basic economics course, and you'll you'll realize that.
47:05
But he was outside of probably Rubio, in my view, probably the clearest thinker on Iran that we've ever had.
47:13
Sure, we wanted to go to Wartham, but go read some of his work, some of his op-eds for the Wall Street Journal.
47:18
And it is a it is a master class in foreign and the understanding of foreign policy, national security, uh, real politics, which is what's the show's called real politics, the politics of reality.
47:31
What I don't and I'd like your comments on this too.
47:34
What I don't understand Cheney is, or do you know, did he ever connect the Iranian influence in Venezuela together?
47:44
Because I know he hated Trump and Liz Cheney and all of her nonsense and January 6th commissions and all that.
47:52
Putting all that aside, the former vice president, the former congressman, the former Ford chief of staff, the former secretary of defense.
48:02
What else was he the former?
48:04
I mean, he did a lot.
48:05
He was defense, he was uh I think he's office of management budget budget.
48:10
OMB at one point, but he was commerce.
48:14
What else was he?
48:15
Um he was secretary of defense.
48:19
But what was his position with Nixon?
48:22
He was uh his chief of staff, I believe.
48:24
Yeah, he was chief of staff, and then he was no, he was Ford's chief of staff with Nixon's chief of staff.
48:30
Was he OMB?
48:31
OMB, okay, and then yeah, Secretary of Defense, then vice president.
48:35
I mean, it's probably the most influential political figure of the 20th century who didn't serve in the presidency.
48:42
Absolutely.
48:44
Did you ever see any commentary from and I didn't do any pre-prep on this or written about this?
48:52
It just came to me.
48:54
He was so clear on his Iranian thinking.
48:58
Did he ever put the Iranian Hezbollah influence into any kind of Venezuelan con uh context that you would assume he he would have had to, you know, he because in the latter days of the Bush presidency was when Iran started making inroads into that part of South America, so I would assume he he would have been fully aware of it, but I mean, what do you do about it when it's the last year of your year in office and you know, it's about to be handed over to either McCain or or Barack Obama.
49:30
Um you know, a big part of our problems with U.S.
49:34
presidents, too, is uh the opposition party hasn't exactly elected uh the the greatest luminaries to oppose them, and so you know, you end up with with uh people winning those elections who who shouldn't win those elections, but anyway, that's just all past history.
49:53
Let's do a little domestic politics then.
49:56
Um because I think it's very
50:00
I think the two are pieced together in regards to your piece on Venezuela and your understanding.
50:04
We've certainly seen that Maduro is now in New York City.
50:08
Madero's being indicted at federal uh federal courthouse in Manhattan.
50:12
But we've also seen very coordinated efforts from people like Nell Singham, the traitorous American who now lives in Beijing and is Code Pink, uh co-founder wife, those two those two scumbags.
50:26
Um pictures with Code Pink, the Chinese funded uh protest group.
50:33
Oh, okay.
50:34
Oh my what okay, just so you know, I have a I have a kind of a you know what's that thing that's seven seven things of Kevin Bacon, you know, that's and uh where I attend church church services, the pastor knows her, and um what's happened to Marjorie Taylor Green, first off, and I know they she got mad because they wouldn't let her run for senator in Georgia, but then secondly, is there any connection between I don't even know that's this question to you of what's going on in Venezuela with all these supposedly sporadic protests now that are happening in New York City and around the nation, and now you know mom dami's a part of them and making commentary.
51:22
That's all being organized by Soros and his bunch.
51:25
Yeah, so that's all being organized.
51:27
Let's go to what is going on with Marjorie Taylor Green.
51:32
Well, I think she became bitter because she wanted to be either governor or senator in Georgia, and uh Trump wouldn't support her efforts in that regard.
51:40
And uh, you know, I think she was always putting on an act, you know, being a conservative to begin with.
51:47
Uh, I think she came into office thinking that would be the most productive way to get elected to Congress to begin with, but it wasn't really what she really believed.
51:55
And like so many, especially Republican members of the House, uh, and the Senate, you know, they're not really conservatives um in their beliefs, and uh, but they feel like that's the fastest way and the best way to get elected to office.
52:11
So we got this whole rhino contingent in both houses, uh, that are really just Democrats with an R next to their name, and I think she was one of them.
52:20
And what we're been seeing most recently is who she really is, and uh, you know, I I don't I never did like her much, couldn't couldn't never have a lot of uh affection for her, but uh you know, the stuff she's done over the last month.
52:36
I think she's gonna have a nice landing spot, either as one of the co-hosts on the view or a paid contributor at MS Now.
52:44
And that's stunning.
52:46
You know, I I look at it with her and I just go, man, Congresswoman, and and I and I know a little bit of her religious journey, let's just say, boy, I'd look at her and go, madam, you are about to gain the world and lose your soul.
53:03
If yeah, you if you go down that route with these people, then that is on.
53:09
I I look at wash my hands of you and go, that's that's gonna be on you for doing that.
53:14
Whether you hate Donald Trump and they wouldn't support you or not.
53:18
If she ever hears this, madam, please don't go down that route.
53:21
I told a buddy the other day that's don't go down that route.
53:24
Yeah, she's the Nicole Wallace of her time.
53:26
Oh, that is so completely sold her soul.
53:29
Yeah, sold your soul.
53:30
I hope I hey.
53:31
I hope being on the cocktail party circuit on the on the west coast and east coast is worth it for you.
53:36
I hope it is.
53:37
Um, I got okay.
53:39
I've only got you for about three minutes here.
53:42
And I just want to end with Venezuela and China, and you know, China has deep ties to Venezuela, the oil, uh, the infrastructure.
53:51
Yeah, the belt and road stuff, yeah.
53:52
Yeah, how do you interpret China's position in all this?
53:56
And do you think this embolds Beijing to push it, you know, to push it to make strategic counter moves?
54:03
Like, would they go invade Taiwan right now?
54:06
Well, they could.
54:07
Um, you know, um, some believe that uh what we did on Saturday kind of increases the odds of China going into Taiwan, you know, looking at that and thinking, well, you know, the the gloves are off now, we'll just go do this, won't be a problem.
54:24
I'm not sure of that.
54:27
I think what we did when you combine the incredible effectiveness and efficiency, and the way the United States military pulled that operation off with the bombing run take that took out Iran's nuclear facilities last June.
54:48
I believe China looks at that and thinks, oh crap.
54:53
We really aren't close to having an a military that can really be competitive with the United States in a kinetic war.
55:04
I think it actually makes it less likely that China will do anything in Taiwan or mount any real international military ventures uh because of that.
55:15
I mean I think people get tied up in uh people by people I mean the experts on television that you know appear on CNN and MS Now panels.
55:27
Um they get so tied up with the fact that China has grown so much over the last 20 years in a very short term, they become this powerful economy.
55:37
They have built up a lot of military assets, and and people begin to think, well, that means they can, you know, we'd have a hard time beating them in a in a shooting war.
55:48
I mean, we're just not even close to that, okay.
55:51
And I think China, I I believe, you know, if you're Xi Jinping watching what the military pull that off without losing a single person, not a single casualty in a highly complex, dangerous operation that it was.
56:09
Um, I just think it makes you take uh a step back and rethink your whole strategy related to Taiwan and what you really want to do there.
56:17
And now we could see them try to enforce a blockade on Taiwan.
56:21
Yeah, um, similar to what we've done with Venezuela.
56:25
That wouldn't surprise me, but I I'd be really surprised if it made them more reluctant or or more likely and not less likely to to actually invade that island.
56:36
Yeah, David, I could stay with you literally for hours at a time because we didn't we didn't even get to more.
56:43
Oh, we're just getting started, man.
56:44
Yeah, what what you just said about Brazil, what you said talk about Mexico, we've talked about uh Greenland.
56:51
But let me just say thank you.
56:53
Unfortunately, my time is up.
56:54
Oh, thank you.
56:55
Yeah, thank you.
56:56
Um, certainly have you on consistently.
56:59
Uh just to tell everyone in the audience, please go read David.
57:03
Uh, listen to his podcast.
57:05
He's on other podcasts, he gets interviewed uh many times, different news stations uh around the world.
57:12
And David Blackman, his substack uh energy edition.
57:18
It's it's something that should be read every day.
57:20
The volume of work he's putting out is unbelievable as someone who's been a content creator, David.
57:27
The volume you're putting out.
57:28
Nothing else, yeah.
57:29
Yeah, the volume you're putting out is is very impressive.
57:32
So with that, uh again, thank you very much for being on the show.
57:35
Thank you.
57:35
Appreciate it, man.
57:36
Always great to talk to you.
57:38
Yeah, you too.
57:38
I'm Todd Royal.
57:40
I am the host of uh Geopower, Energy, and Real Politics, and uh God bless you.