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Felix Prehn - This Changes Everything for Stocks + Stock Market News 15 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Winston and Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on a day where a lot of media is sort of shouting panic, and I want to walk you through what's actually happening out there so that in the next few minutes, after you watch at least the first 10 minutes or so of this, you will understand where we're at, where we're going, particularly six key things I want to walk through.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: There is a death cross out there for the NASDAQ, for the S&P, for the Russell.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: There is a death cross out there for the NASDAQ, for the S&P, for the Russell.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: What does it actually mean?
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Should we be afraid?
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: And is this is number two, is an explosive rally possible?
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: And number three what do you do when you are in like the worst sentiment in 30 years, which is happening right now, by the way, we look at number four.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: Very important the biggest buyer of stocks out there is doing something that you're going to want to know about.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: You're going to want to take notes on that one.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: And then, what are the machines doing?
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: What are the algo funds doing?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: What are the computers doing?
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: And then we're going to look at the charts of popular stocks like Palantir, nvidia, tesla, sofi, archer and all the other ones you want to ask me about.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: And actually there's one more bonus piece of information there which I forgot to mention, which is really, really key.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So take notes, take screenshots so you'll remember this, and it's not just sort of entertainment that goes over your head.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Winston, of course, is taking notes for me, so we're good on that front.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: And actually he was a bit miffed when I said that you see that it's curled up now.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: That's the guy who does all the research around here, by the way, in case you were wondering.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: So death cross for the NASDAQ is a rally possible, a big one.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: What do we do with the worst sentiment ever?
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: And what's the biggest buyer doing out there?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: What are the machinees even doing?
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: You see, I'm making them machinees and then we do a proper chart review, because that's really important.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: A lot of changes there, given all the madness that's happening in the real world.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: So we got to start with the death crosses, right?
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's why I write it down, so I remember, all right.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: So what is a death cross?
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: It's a thing you see banded about on social media quite a lot.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Let me grab a little pen and I can illustrate a little bit better, like a yellow one here.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: So you see that yellow line there.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: That's the 50-day moving average.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: The purple line is the 150-day moving average and what it's often going to be using here is trade vision.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: If you want to follow along, grab yourself a free copy.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: There's a free trial for a week.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: And when the yellow line the 50-day crosses below the 150 150 that is generally known rather dramatically as the death cross, and it is an important thing it's a bad thing.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: We saw on the day we gapped down.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: The next day we gapped down.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: So it is one of those things that destroys confidence.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: But it's a little bit old news.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know why everyone's picking up on this.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: This happened like seven trading days ago.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: If you look on, that's also SPY.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: If you look on, that's also spy.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: If you look on the iwm, for example, same story, except we had it in early march.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: If you look at qqq, same story.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: We also have a death cross.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: That happened here again on the fourth.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: So round and round we go on the magnificent seven.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: We also have a death cross here.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: So there's a lot of that kind of bearish sentiment out there With that.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: Is it important?
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: It's just one indicator.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: We have actually recovered since.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: It's not good, but we all know it's not good.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: It's not like oh my God.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: I'm surprised.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: You know what?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: The market went down?
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: Really Nobody told me.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: It's not really happening out there.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a little bit like noise and I'm seeing it a lot at the moment on social media.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: So be aware of it.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: For me, what would be more important is that we're trading above the 150-day moving average again.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: That would actually be way more useful.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: So that purple line there we want to recover that and reclaim that, because at that point these stocks become buyable again and right now they're not.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: Much more important and much more accurate, I think, is the volatility index.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: It's the VIX, the fear index.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Generally speaking, we want to be below 20, right Above 20,.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: I said panic.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: Obviously I didn't mean for you to panic, but that's sort of the indication.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: We're still at 30.
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: We've come down a lot, which is good, right, like a lot, but we're still trading at about 30 here this morning.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So we'd like to drop into the 20s.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: No real consensus on whether that happens or not.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: A lot of people are just saying by people I mean sort of people I deal with on Wall Street, hedge funds and so on.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: They're saying, look, there's so much uncertainty out there and Trump's creating that every three hours that it'll stay really elevated, and others are saying it just can't last.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: The setup is it's going to fall off pretty hard towards the end of this week.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: We'll see, we'll see.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: But as long as it's in the 30s, what do we do?
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: We're more careful.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: So I'm nibbling a little bit, but I'm nibbling carefully.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: So I'm doing smaller positions, for example, and that's what I would recommend people do is just be a little bit more cautious.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Now we also have just in I thought I'd mentioned it import prices just came in, as Winston seems to be going off screen here.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Winston, what are you doing there he is?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: He doesn't look too worried about import prices, does he?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Well, import prices just came in at minus 0.1.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: So, hang on, I thought we have tariffs and it's going to make everything really expensive.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Well, so far that's not happening.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Now, of course, tariffs are going to take a few weeks or months to trickle through, but it's a good thing.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of causing disinflation, if that's a word.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Is that a word?
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: I think that's a word.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So that's what we had to start with right.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be too worried about the death cross, because you already know I would be much more focused on watching the VIX as an indicator like is the market returning to normal?
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: Is the rally therefore going to be more long lasting?
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So right now I'm looking at short term, kind of okay, and I'm looking at longer term, or actually medium term probably.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I'm looking at, I'm a little bit worried about it because we don't really know how.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Good morning everybody, if you are.
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: What did the polls say out here?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Half half Half of you are worried about losing money.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: The other half are worried about missing the next big stock.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: It's interesting, isn't it?
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: No real consensus on that one.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: So Is an explosive rally possible?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: I saw a few of you guys in the chat here saying, hey, we could go up 10%.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So one of the things I look at is market positioning, and I don't mean you and me market positioning, I mean the big funds.
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: So the big long short funds, the big funds out there, are they really bullish?
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Are they board loads or are they really really cautious right now?
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: And basically we're at a super low level somewhere down here where we haven't been in at least more than five years, and it means they own very few shares or they might be very short.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: So what happens if you get a bit of good news and you go up?
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Well, these guys are going to be chasing that rally, like Winston chases a squirrel.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: You should see him.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: He gets very, very, very motivated when he chases a squirrel.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: You should see him.
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: He gets very, very, very motivated when he chases a squirrel, don't you Winston?
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: Yes, there he is.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: So I would therefore say yes on good news.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: Say we get a big trade deal or a couple of big trade deals in, we could be in for the monster of all rallies.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: So would I be shorting this market?
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: No, why not?
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Too risky, too risky, too uncertain?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Bobby says every rally is being sold.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and that's what institutions do, that's what experienced investors do.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: They use rallies to sell out of positions to reduce risk, because there's a lot of risk out there, there's a lot of uncertainty out there, but the medium and longer term it's a smart thing to do, actually, but retail doesn't usually follow suit.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: Now we also have, according to Bank of America, the worst sentiment in 30 years.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: Can you believe that Terrible things happened in the last 30 years.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: We had COVID, we had 9-11, we had the financial crisis I don't know what else we had in the last 30 years but a lot of bad stuff happened in the last 30 years.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Is it that bad?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Is it really?
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: Is the economy falling apart?
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Do we have massive bankruptcies?
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Like, not really right.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: Just they're rejigging the tariff structure.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: So the way I look at that and I'm actually putting out a video on that a little bit later on inflation and what the Fed is doing and so on I'm looking at you know they use the words these are maximum tariffs right now and they're using these to negotiate.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: This is the Trump style of negotiation.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: So therefore, these tariffs are going to come down.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: So if we've priced in the worst, it's likely going to get better.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: And again, it makes me feel optimistic because everybody else is bearish.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Right, being a little bit of a contrarian can be quite useful.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a good one, and you're going to want to take a screenshot of this or notes of this.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: The biggest buyer of stocks out there is who Anybody know.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Anybody knows who's the biggest buyer of stocks out there is who Anybody know?
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Anybody knows who's the biggest buyer of stocks out there Winston, do you know?
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I think Winston probably knows, don't you think?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: He looks confident?
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: I would say Anybody know who the biggest buyer of stocks is out there?
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: Put it in the chat.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Scott, my friend, I know you're always paying attention, he knows.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: Yes, scott, of course, is correct, not me.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: It's companies themselves.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: So it's basically the stocks themselves.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: They do buybacks, they buy back their own shares and we are in this blackout window.
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: So just before earnings kick off, they're not allowed to buy their own shares and it's sort of this slightly depressing sentiment on the market.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: And the open window to buy again is going to begin on the 25th of April.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: So 25th of April they're going to be allowed to buy again and that'll be about 30% of it.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: So typically they buy about depends a bit on seasonality.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: It's about a trillion a year, isn't it?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: With the blackouts, it's probably five, six billion a year.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: So you're going to get about two billion a day in buying and then that's going to ramp up to probably about six billion a day in just stock buying, which, of course, is pretty, pretty useful, right?
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So we're going to go into a period that's going to give us a little bit more support from companies buying their own shares?
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: And what about machines?
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Why do I keep writing machinies?
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So the machinies, the algo funds, the algos.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: The red pen is a bit bit menacing, isn't it?
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: So use a blue one.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: They're going to buy well over the next week.
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: If the market is flat.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: On the s&p, that is, they're going to buy 5 billion.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: If the market goes up, they're going to buy 7 billion on the s&p.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: If the market goes down, they're still going to buy 3 billion.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: So they're going to go and buy no matter what.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: And over the next month flat market they buy 11 billion.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: If the market goes up, they're going to go and buy no matter what.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: And over the next month flat market they buy 11 billion.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: If the market goes up, they're going to buy 23 billion.
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: If the market goes down, they're going to buy 8.5 billion.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: Is that useful for you?
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: Is that information that will actually make you go?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Okay, interesting, we might be getting a little bit of a floor under this market right, which is why I'm, short-term, somewhat optimistic that we're not going to make lower lows.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm saying.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So that's useful to you.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: Put a one in the chat and I'll see that this is actually useful information for you.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: Winston seems to have entirely tuned out.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: There he is, he seems.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Oh no, he's awake, winston.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: Hey, winston, winston, okay, he's just like can we go and play with the ball now, please?
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Um, so yeah, I'm seeing some bonds running in there.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: I've seen that.
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Um, gme.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: Actually, that looked quite promising, I thought, yesterday.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So your question then, of course, is like what are you going to buy?
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Right, if the markets, if the buybacks are there, the cta's are there, maybe we, over the worst of the whole in you know the tariff and trump thing, maybe maybe not, who knows?
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: How do you actually pick winning stocks right now?
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: Gme was actually on my list today, which was interesting.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Well, you need to understand the rules.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: Following the news, following people on YouTube or Twitter or TikTok or wherever you get your news, isn't going to make you into a great investor.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: It just isn't.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Unless you actually understand the rules, rather than just throwing darts at the board because you're buying whatever the latest thing is, it's going to be pretty tough for you to avoid what people are saying in the poll here.
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Avoid losing money and you don't want to miss out on the next big stock.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: My whole mission here is to actually teach you those rules.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: So if you wish to learn them, I'll put in the chat for you where you can learn them at felixfrenzorg slash, get free, I'll pin it to the chat as well.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: It's a 15 minute lesson.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: It'll teach you literally what 99.9% of people don't know, and you'll then go and you'll watch other YouTube videos and you go.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: They don't know it, do they?
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: And it's a nice feeling.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: It's a nice feeling.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: It gives you confidence.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: It makes you sleep better at night.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: You know what you're doing, you know where you should be selling, you know where you might want to be buying.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So, felixvanzeloxcom, get free, check it out.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Now, this is a bonus chart, because so many of you put ones in the chat there, and this is telling me what's coming next.
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: This is from Bloomberg.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: It's the Financial Condition Index, and financial conditions are either loose I know what you're thinking, it's not what that means or they are tight.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: And what happens if they're tight?
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: Well, the economy shrinks right.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: It it's hard to borrow, money isn't so easy.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: So when conditions get tighter, what does it mean?
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: It means the fed is raising interest rates, possibly, but they're not right yet.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: They still have massively gotten tighter.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: We're at levels like we've last seen during the COVID crash Very, very, very tight financial conditions and it's got a lot to do with the bond market imploding and so on and it means that the Fed should do something, and by do something, they have two ways that they can do something.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: One, they can cut rates right, that's number one.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: And two, they can print money.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: They are basically the tools that the Fed has.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: They should be doing one of those two and they know it.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: Everybody knows it, every fund manager, every hedge fund, everybody out there is talking about it.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Besant was talking about it yesterday, saying if the Fed doesn't do anything, we're going to do something, which means buying, actually back their own debt to pump some liquidity in there.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: So I think we are going to get some of that.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I think we are going to get some sort of form of stimulus for the market here, which, of course, is going to be tremendous.
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Do I know when?
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: No, I don't.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: The Fed seems to be a little bit stubborn at the moment.