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Phillies/Mets MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 8/27/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: wookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. March hate? Is that what it is? I
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man's
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I could
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinus, the slump continues. Somebody
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, It's towed back with you. This is
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: better off dead? Uh Wednesday? What day is it today? Wednesday,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: August twenty seventh. Man, We should potentially end it all, man,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: because after I was on a hot streak here, we
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: should just end the show and you know, my existence
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: whatever after own three yesterday, And to add insult to injury,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota Twins, by the way, after they were losing
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: it think three to nothing or four and nothing at
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: the end of the fifth inning, they wound up winning
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: the game. They scored four runs in the ninth inning,
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: which never should have happened, by the way, but just
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: to just to mess with me, they won a game
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: that they never should have won. So, I mean, the
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: handicap was wrong, I got it wrong, but Minnesota, just
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: to be just to fuck with me, they win it. Anyway.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Anaheim was down at the end of five and lost
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: the game the Cubs. The Cubs took a two to
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: one lead man in the middle of the game and
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: then did nothing else against Vera Lander, and they immediately
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: threw the lead away and then lost the game anyway.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: And yeah, I mean, when you have a play like that,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: you are going up against a good bullpen in San
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Francisco at least. But still, I mean, I thought it
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: was a spot play, thought it was the right play. Terrible.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: You gotta move on, Curtis. What's up man? Thanks for
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: hanging out key. What's up? Man? I mean, I was
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: doing pretty well until this week. But I mean, unless
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: you mean like shitty like as far as my life
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: is concerned, Yeah, it's been pretty bad. Yesterday was terrible
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: on the show. Of course, we'll move on to today.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I will get right into it. Man. I'm gonna have
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: two baseball plays today. That's all I got today. We'll
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: talk about WNBA first, and then I got to figure
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: out what I want to do with college football because
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: unlike previous college football years, Week one has like a
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: million games on Thursday, so college football has a ton
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: of games tomorrow. So I have to figure out what
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: I want to do about that. Like should I do
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: an extra college football show to talk about those games tonight.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I gotta figure it out because I
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: don't really want to talk about that plus baseball tomorrow.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: But with football coming in, I might have to cut
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: down the baseball content. I've been just like talk about
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the big games and my plays and that's it because
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: right now, of course, as you know, I'm massively autistic,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: and I go through every baseball game, which I'm not
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: gonna do for football obviously. I mean, there are way
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: too many football games. I'll do it for the NFL
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: probably maybe it'll help you out and pick them pools
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and whatever. I believe I did that last year. NFL
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: is easier to do. I mean, there aren't that many games.
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: But college football, there's no way. We do have two
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: WNBA games today, Vegas Atlanta, which I started talking about
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: yesterday looking at the wrong day. Atlanta up from one
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half. Seventy one
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: percent tickets, ninety six percent of the cash coming in
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: on Atlanta, So the money is coming in on Atlanta
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: in this game. I'm not sure if there are any
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: injuries to be aware of in this one. I don't
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: really fully understand what's going on with that line move.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Looks like there aren't really any injuries factoring into this thing. Atlanta.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, they took over the number
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: one spot in the East over the Liberty. They just
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: beat the Liberty and beat in Minnesota the game before that,
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: so they're off of a couple of big games in
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: a row. They did lose to Vegas by two on
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: the road not that long ago, but I think, I mean,
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: that's a close game. Man coming within two of Vegas
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: on the road. For me, I think that would pump
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: up Vegas, even though technically it's a revenge spot for Atlanta.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: But this New York game meant way more to Atlanta
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: taking over the first place in the East. Although I
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: think the way the playoffs work, I was wrong. I
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: thought that they were conferenced by conference, but I think
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: the playoffs and the WNBA is just one big field,
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: so it's really just like the top eight teams or
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: whatever all get in. Atlanta's definitely gonna make the playoffs
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: at this point, and Soul will Vegas. I don't know
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: think that's really concern, but it's about playoff seeding at
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: this point, so it is still a big game for
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: both teams. Vegas third straight road game, which makes it
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a difficult spot. But they're coming
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: up in a game where they didn't play well against Chicago,
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: so you would think that they kind of just overlook
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Chicago took the game easily because I think they were
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: looking more ahead to this game against Atlanta, which means more.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: And Vegas is on a huge streak right now. They've
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: won whatever I said yesterday, ten games in a row,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: something like that, So I don't know if you really
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: want to step in front of that train. All the
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: money seems to be going that way. So if you're
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: a market reader, it is. If you're market literate, it is.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: The money is saying at Lanta on that game, but
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I don't fully understand that. And then Connecticut Dallas. Connecticut
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: flipped from a two point two and a half point
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: dogged with three point favorite on the road, with the
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: money coming in on them seventy six percent of the
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: cash on Connecticut, sixty seven percent of tickets on Dallas.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: You gotta think, well, what's going on here? Because I
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: know Dallas isn't a very good team, but Connecticut is
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: the absolute worst team. In the entire league. So how
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: is Connecticut a road favored in this game? So there
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: have to be injuries going on here, and really the
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: issue is Becker's, who is the rookie and basically the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: best player for Dallas, she is seemingly not gonna play tonight.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: She played in the last game, but she has an illness,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: and I'm pretty sure what this line is indicating is
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: that she's not gonna play, So you have to deal
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: with that. As far as what's going on with this
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: line here, it makes it look almost too easy to
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: take Dallas and the money is seemingly coming in on Connecticut.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: But when you have a star player out that first
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: game that they're out, it's the injured player spot basically,
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: or the ill player spot in this case, you gotta
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: think Dallas will actually show up and step it up
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit. So my opinion would be that the
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: line probably moved a little bit too much. I can
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: move five to six points off of that news. It
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: seems to me like the there's just value in taking
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Dallas plus the points at home in this one, although
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: it seems like the public, if they're playing this game,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: kind of think that way too. But again, For me,
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: it's that injured player theory spot where the team knows
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: their star players out they have to step it up
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: in that first game without that player. As far as
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: the scheduling is concerned, Dallas has lost five games in
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: a row. They're staying at home, so it's not really
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: a terrible spot for them to maybe bounce back from
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: all that. Connecticut is particularly terrible on the road, with
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: only three wins on the road, and Connecticut's playing a
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: third straight road game and they just played New York
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: to within two points, man, so that also has been
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: leaning to Dallas here. Connecticut's coming off this big game.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I don't know why ESPN changed their fonts, by the way,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: on these scores, it looks really bizarre. Connecticut. I was
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: a thirteen and a half point underdog in this game,
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: and they were pretty much out of the game by
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: the end of it. But they were winning in the
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: second half. The game wasn't out of reach, and they
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: wound up losing the game by two in the end.
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: So that's gonna be I think that sets up a
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: hangover spot for Connecticut, man, because they know they're not
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: making the playoffs. This is a huge game for them.
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: Where they stepped it up in the Liberty. They were
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: not in a good spot, man. They were coming off
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: that big game against Atlanta that they lost and fell
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: out of first place, so they were I think hungover
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: coming into that game, so you can kind of explain
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: what happened in that game. So really, for me, everything
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: points to Dallas in this game for me pretty much.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: But I'm not gonna recommend it as a play. I mean,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: the money seems to be coming into disagreeing with it,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: but I again, I think it's injured player spot plus
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Connecticut in a hangover spot multiple games in a row
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: on the road. I would say, yeah, you probably want
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: to look towards Dallas and that one. J C. What's up, man,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: Curtis say, I hope you're all right. Man, I don't
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: know if you're referring to your own week or mine.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: I thought you're referring to all my the twitter mayhem
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: that's been going on with me there. Actually, let me
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: look at one thing real quick with that Connecticut here,
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: because I want to see how crowded their schedule has
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: been recently as well, because I decided I'm not going
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: to give out a play, so I don't really look
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: but they're playing. Yeah, they have games off in between
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: all these games. They're playing a third game in five
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: days or whatever, not in four days. But that's still
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: not that easy. We have baseball today. We have a
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: full baseball card today or full baseball board today. I
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: got two plays I'll give out here. We do have
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: after noon games, four afternoon games, because some of these
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: teams are traveling after today. It probably means those teams,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: I would guess, might have tomorrow off because some teams
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: do get Thursday off. One game. The first game up
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: one of five pm Eastern MLB network is Washington and
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: the Yankees. Yankees on the verge of a sweet pier potentially,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: But does that mean they're gonna overlook Washington because they've
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: dominated the first two games of the series a lot.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I said, Yankees team total in the first games of
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: the series, and I think they went over the first
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: game and didn't go over yesterday. Yankees do actually play
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the White Sox tomorrow, though that's not really a look
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: ahead spot. Like if the Yankees are playing a better
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: team tomorrow, you might say they have more of a
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: tendency to overlook Washington here because they have a big
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: game up next. That's not really the case here, but
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: they still might overlook them because it's been a dominant
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: series for the Yankees. However, Washington does have a terrible bullpen,
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: one of the worst bullpens in baseball, so they definitely
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: have the worst of the two bullpens, even though the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: Yankees isn't that good. Yankees fairly rested bullpen yesterday. They
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: used four guys, but the day before that they hardly
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: used anybody. That sucks. Curtis, you gotta try to get
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: some sleep, man. Hopefully you don't have to work that much, man,
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: because stress plus lack of sleep can definitely make you sick. Man.
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: Get better man for the starting pitching matchup here, and
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: obviously the Yankees have the way better offense here as well.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching matchup. You've got to favorite the Yankees in
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: that aspect of this game too. Kde Cavali is pitching
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: for Washington. He's a young guy. I mean, he's been
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: around for a little bit. I think he does have
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: some stats prior to this year in the majors that
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: aren't very good. This year he's been okay two point
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA, although one point three to four whip
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: is not that good. He's been bad on the road
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: five point seven to three arm the road only he
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: has made four starts so far, and if you look
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: at his starts just on the stat lines here there
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: weren't really that bad. He's gone eighteen to six strike
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio overall, which tells you his command is
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: pretty good. One of his starts on the road was
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: at Philly and he still held him to three earned
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: runs at six innings, so that's a pretty good start
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: from him. His worst start was actually against Kansas City
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: walk three guys, give it four and runs against a
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: weak offense in that really a pitcher friendly stadium there,
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: so that's not a great sign. But his starts against
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: Philly were a pretty good sign. And the fact that
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: it was two starts and the start that he did
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: worse and was facing Philly again right away after Philly
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: had just seen him, so Philly was way more familiar
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: than he actually pitched decently in that game. Like I said,
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: so maybe Cavally is not that bad. The Yankees have
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: never seen him before, so he might have a little
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: bit of an extra advantage there facing a lineup that
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: hasn't seen him before. So Cavally might actually do okay
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: in this one. Nax Free is pitching for the Yankees.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Good season for him, three point one four, one point
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: one two whip, two point four to four R at home,
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: so he's good at home. However, the last couple of
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: months he really kind of fell off, with a five
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: point five to four YAR in July and a six
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: point four to three R in August, so not having
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: good months over the past two months. However, his most
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: recent start was a six to eighty shutout against the
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Red Sox, which the Red Sox woun up winning the
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: game anyway, one to nothing, because I think that was
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: Freed against Bao, and Bao actually pretty much just went
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: toe to toe with them in that game. Crazy to
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: think about. Freed did walk three guys in that game,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: but he had seven strikeouts, four hits a lot. It
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: was a good start from him against a good offense
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: in the Red Sox. So maybe that doesn't mean that
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Freed is getting back into form here and maybe for
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: the late stretch, maybe he's gonna be better again, which
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: I hope not as a Red Sox fan, but Freed
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: might pitch well again. One issue with Freed in this game, though,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: is that the Nationals are very familiar with him because
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: he was on the Braves, so he was in their division.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: They got eighty one at bats against him. He doesn't
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: twenty to four strike a walk ratio against them, which
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: is good against them, I should say two seventy two
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed seven oh one ohps, So not bad
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: numbers for free against Washington, but not dominant numbers either.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of interesting. I mean, you could kind
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: of see an argument maybe for taking like a Washington
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: run line in the first five innings. I mean, I
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: would not want anything to do with them. Later in
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the game, the money line went up from my two
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: tofty five to minus two seventy on the Yankees seventy
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets eighty nine percent of the cash
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: on them, So the money's coming in on the Yankees
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: total sixty four percent of tickets on the over, seventy
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over. But it flipped
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half juice to the under. It's interesting, man,
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a very difficult game to handicap. Again,
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could see an argument for a first
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: five inning under as well. Here, don't want to factor
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: in the bullpens. If you want to go under here,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: you want to go first five only. But I could see,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: you know, the unfamiliarity of Cavali against Freed being good,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: and maybe back and form might have this game being
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit low scoring in the first five innings
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: as well, So maybe something like that might be the
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: best approach in that game. Atlanta at Miami another afternoon
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: game here. These teams will split the first two games
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: of this syeries. Miami getting obliterated eleven to two last night,
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: maybe that means they want to bounce back from that.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's kind of an embarrassing loss from Miami there.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: These teams are pretty similar in bullpen and an offense.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: They're both very close. We had three relievers enter the
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: game from Miami yesterday, four for Atlanta. Had a pretty
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: good rest scenario in their bullpen up until then recently,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: so the bullpen scenario pretty much a wash, even including
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: the rest. Starting pitching I think probably got to give
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: the edge to Atlanta, but I don't really trust either
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: of these starters. Joey Wentz pitching for the Braves, and
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: unless he has that woman umpire who thinks he's hot
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: or whatever and gives him all the calls, which screwed
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: me on whatever that play was that I had. I
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: think I had an over in that game and it
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: lost by like one run or something because Wentz was
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: basically unhittable in that game. Unless that's happening again, I
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: don't know if he's gonna do that well here. I mean,
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: his numbers on the season are not good five point
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: two to five VR, one point four to seven WHIP.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: He is better on the road though, three point three
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: to two ROADYRA. Not really a good form right now
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: with a five point eight five VRA this month, and
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: more damning is a thirteen to eight strike a walk
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: ratio and multiple walks in four of his last five outings.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: That's not a good sign. He did pitch against Miami
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: on August tenth, so they're recently familiar with him. Held
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: him to one and run in five in the thirtys,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: but he did walk three guys and only struck out two,
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: So again, not really good command numbers for Wentz here.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's not really a good strikeout pitcher, but
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: his walk numbers are a bit high. His last outing
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: was really rough against the Mets six earned runs allowed.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: This was at home, three and a thirty ings pitched,
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: nine hits, two walks, three strikeouts, so again not a
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: good recent form against Miami. His numbers are are pretty
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: good in twenty seven at bats two twenty two average
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: allowed in five ninety six ops, three to three strike
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: out walk ratio. Again not really that good though not
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: many strikeouts, and again he did just face Miami. He
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: did okay in that start, but because they just saw him,
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: they're more recently familiar with them now, so he might
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: not do as well this time out. Ryan Gusto is
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: pitching for the Marlins, and he's he's so great that Houston,
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: who's in the middle of a playoff run or run
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: probably to get into the playoffs, they got rid of
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: Gusto before the trade deadline. They did not want to
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: go for the Gusto. I mean, he's not very good.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: He's got a five point zero five R one point
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: four whip this year. Not good, really bad. Home number
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: is a six ERA at home, although that includes him
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: being with Houston, it does include one appearance with Miami.
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: So far, with Miami, he's oz and two in his
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: two starts, did go six innings in each of them,
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: which is all right, but he allowed eight earned runs.
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: He has a six ERA over that span. Eight to
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: three strike out walk ratio is not that bad, so
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: he's not walking that many guys, but he's getting he's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: given up hard contact, like he hasn't really allowed that
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: many hits, fewer hits than innings, so you could argue
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: really that he got a little bit unlucky in allowing
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: that amount of runs allowed five last time out in
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: his home outing against Toronto, he did face in Land
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: to the start before that and held them to three
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: on runs and six in He's with eight strikeouts two walks,
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: so he did well in that game. But then he
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: had no strikeouts in the game against Toronto, so that
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: is a bad sign that he wasn't fooling hitters. His
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: command wasn't necessarily that good in that one, so to me,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: I don't think Gusto is going to do that well.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: And again Atlanta just saw him, so now they're recently
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: familiar with him. They only have twenty two at bats
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: against him. Of course, he did well in that start,
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: so he's held him to a one to eighty two
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: average four to seventy seven oh ps eight to two
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio when you're dealing with two pitchers basically
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: their only starts against these two opposing offenses, where the
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: last start, which was only a couple of weeks ago,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the offenses know what these guys are throwing. So I
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: actually thinking over is probably the way to look. I know,
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: it's a wentz over again here where you might get screwed.
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: Hopefully that woman umpire is not out there, but it
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: looks like the money's coming in that way. It's the
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: totals up from eight eight and a half to eight
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: and a half with juice on the over, seventy percent
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: tickets eighty one percent of the cash on the over.
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: That is the way I would lean there. Atlanta, it
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: does have sixty five percent tickets eighty seven percent of
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: the cash, is a road favorite a minus one eighteen,
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: which again them being a road favorite looks bizarre because
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: of course Atlanta has a worse record than Miami does.
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: But the oddsmakers are telling you look at their run differential,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: souff Atlanta is actually the better of these two teams.
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: I do agree with that, but again you gotta take
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: into account what the matchup is. I still think the
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: better way to do this is the over, because I
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: just don't see how you could really put your faith
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: in either of these starters. The bullpens aren't terrific either,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: So that's the way that I would look in that game.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I would probably slightly agree with the lean on Atlanta
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: as well, but not not gonna be anything that I
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: would want to actually do as far as that's concerned.
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: But I would actually trust Wentz over gusso as bad
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: as that sounds, I would not go for the Gusto.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: But again, I think over is the better way to
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: look at that game. Tampa at Cleveland. Cleveland won yesterday
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: after they got so this has been a series of
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: opposing shutouts, as Cleveland had been shut out three games
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: in a row, including the first game of this series.
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Then they returned the favor and shut out Tampa last night.
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: So it's been a wild run for Cleveland here. But
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: their offense is really really struggling right now. Tampa has
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: the better offense of the two. I would say Tampa.
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: Does Tampa even have the better bullpen of them? Now?
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: I don't even know at this point. Where are they
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: at Cleveland's at fourteenth? Oh no, wait, sorry, eer Wise,
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: Actually Cleveland's is good. Cleveland is fourth and bullpending already
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: forgot about that. They're actually the better of these two bullpens,
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: as ridiculous as that sounds, Tampa is eighth, so I
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: guess Cleveland has the bullpen edge, although that included some
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: of their better relievers back before they got suspended for gambling.
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: Cleveland has a lot of rest in their bullpen right
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: now though, so that's a decent sign for Cleveland. Their
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: bullpen is rested. Tampa Bay a lot of rest in
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: their bullpen as well, So the bullpens Inario is pretty
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: good for both teams here. Starting pitchers I actually kind
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: of like the starting pitchers in this one too. Drew
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen is pitching for the Rays really good season. Two
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: point six two ERA, point nine to nine whip sub
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: one whip is excellent. Man, he's slightly worse on the
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: road two point six to eighty ra very similar though.
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: It's kind of crazy to think that that would be
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: the case because at his home stadium, Steinbrunner Field the
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Spring the spring training stadium, it's a very hitter friendly park,
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: so the fact that he pitches well there is interesting.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: With Rasmussen. It's an interesting case man, where he's very
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: efficient with his pitches for the most part, and the
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: Rays they do a lot of like weird bullpen and
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: pitching management. Here, they're actually limiting his pitch count. They're
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: letting him go around eighty or so pitches seventy five
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: or so pitches an outing, and he basically gets them
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: through like six innings fairly consistently, which is pretty good.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: But they did let him go longer than that. He
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: went ninety one pitches last time out in a big
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: game against the Yankees Tampa One, losing the game, although
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: it wasn't Rasmussen's fault. Give up tour and runs to
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: them in six innings pretty good, both on solo home runs,
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, two walks, five hits in that outing. Over
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: all of his outings this month, he's allowed two or
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: fewer earned runs, and that stretch actually goes back through
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: last month. Of the last month he made some really
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: shortened appearances because they were getting him ready to pitch
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: in the All Star Game, I suppose, but two of
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: his last five starts have been against the Yankees, and
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: he held him to two runs in both of them.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Both on the road and at home. So Rasmussen he
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: is the real deal. I mean he's pitching well twenty
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: one to two strikeout walk ratio this month one point
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: one to six ERA, very good stuff. And that includes
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: games at the A's a game against the Dodgers as well,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: So these have not been easy starts for him, and
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: he still pitched well in every single one of them.
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: So yeah, he's good. My one concern maybe is that
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: they let him go nine. He went pitches in a
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: big game against the Yankees last time out, so that
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: could be a little bit of an issue. The last
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: time he faced the Yankees, he pitched pretty well again
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: after that against the Dodgers, but again, he is coming
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: off a big game where he threw more pitches than
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: he usually does. But he is also stepping way down
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: in class to face this very bad Cleveland offense. They
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: only have nine at bats against Rasmussen. They're only two
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: for nine with no extravase hits, three strikeouts, one walk,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: two twenty two average easy math there and five twenty
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: two ops. So Rasmussen, pretty unfamiliar to Cleveland, does have
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: good numbers against himhen he has faced them generally. Yeah,
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: I expect him to do pretty well in this game.
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: I don't really think it's gonna be like a hangover
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: from that Yankees game. Plus, they're limiting his pitch counts
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: so much that they're making sure that they don't wear
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: them out. Although they're not gonna make the playoffs anymore here,
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: so maybe they're just unleaching them a little bit more now.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: But so both of these teams are out of it,
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: by the way, I forgot to mention all that. The Yankees,
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: of course, are playing to try to make sure they
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs and landa Miami or out of it.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Washington's out of it, Tampa Bay, Cleveland all out of it.
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: So then it's like, well, where's the motivation? Lie? You
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: got to try to kind of gauge that although any
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: team is playing the yank is generally gonna still get
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: up for that game, and teams like this, I mean,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: you're still playing for something. I mean you don't want
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: to lose intentionally or anything like that. Cleveland has slayed
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: Chacone pitching. He's a young guy with a pretty good
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: amount of upside. Of those numbers are not terrific this year,
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: but they're not awful. Four point four to one ERA
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: one point two eight whip, which I think has been
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: his first season with Cleveland. I think it's been kind
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: of a shortened season for him. He has a five
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: point four to eight ERA at home, though, which is
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: not particularly good. Obviously, this month he hasn't been good either,
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: with a six point eight six ERA sixteen to four
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: strike a walk race yo is good though, so his
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: command numbers have actually still been good, but he's been
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: getting lit up by the home run ball. He's allowed
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: six home runs this month and failed to go five
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: innings in two starts against the White Sox in Atlanta,
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: which are not good offenses. That's not a great sign.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: He did bounce back a little bit with a good
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: start at Texas last time out. That's a weak offense
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: and a pitcher friendly park, though, so I don't know
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: if you're ready to say that Chaconi is all the
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: way back, Carol, though the Rays have never faced him before,
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: so he does have an unfamiliarity edge here because he's
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: been in the National League for his entire career. Looking
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: at the market here, the money strongly came in on Tampa.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: They're ugh for minus one to fifteen to now minus
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: one fifteen, excuse me, to minus one fifty seven. I
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: don't think there's any way that you can play Tampa
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: at that price now, Although I wouldn't disagree with the
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: Tampa side because I do think Rasmussen is the better
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: of the two pitchers. The bullpens can kind of just
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: compete with each other. Although maybe a first five inning
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: Tampa play would make sense. At this point, you gotta
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: go run line if you want Tampa Bay here, though
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: they have eighty eight percent to take as ninety three
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash. Looks like one of those plays
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: where the public and the professionals are actually in alignment
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: on the Tampa side. But again, I think at this
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: point you've probably lost way too much value to try
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: to play Tampa on the side. I think the under
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: might be worth a look, though, but the total on
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: that is plummeting as well. From eight juice to the
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: over all the way to seven juice to the under.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: There's no way that I would say that you could
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: take a six and a half under here, but seven
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: is a key number in baseball. If you can get
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: the under seven, maybe it's worth a shot on That
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: won't be one of my plays, but sixty six percent
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: of tickets on the over and only fifty nine percent
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over. Again, you got rassed
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: with in very good pitcher. These offenses aren't that prolific.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are well rested and they're pretty good. And uh,
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: you got Chaconi, who's at least unfamiliar to Tampa. So
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: I definitely could see this being an under type of
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: game here. So I would not say no if if
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: you wanted to do that. I mean, that's that would
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: probably be my preferred approach in that game, would be
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: an under in that game, But unfortunately you've lost some
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: value there. Much rather go under seven and a half
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: than seven, and if you can get that up to
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: about minus one twenty, that might be the better way
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: to go. Again. Seven the key number in baseball because
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: it's how the teams break the three to three tie.
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: The last of the afternoon games late afternoon is San
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: Diego at Seattle, which will be in the afternoon Pacific
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Coast time. Seattle and San Diego the first two games
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: of this series, both high scoring games nine to six
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: and seven to six. Seattle's bullpen has actually been struggling
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: a bit recently, even though they're generally a pretty good bullpen,
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: they saw some usage yesterday four relievers. San Diego actually
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: used five, so the bullpen usage is not very good
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: for either side. There's been a lot of bullpen usage.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: San Diego generally does have the better of the two bullpens.
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: Seattle has the better offense, and I think you got
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: to give the pitching starting pitching edge to Seattle in
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: this one. You Darvish was pitching for San Diego. He
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: came back from injury, started this season not too long ago,
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: so at least that means he's not overworked yet. But
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: his numbers, his numbers are a little bit weird man,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: because his ERA is not good five point three six.
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: His whip at one point one is good, so his
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: whip is kind of indicating that his ERA should actually
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: probably be better than it is right now. He's been
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: bad on the road seven point six six era on
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: the road, which is in a great signal though San
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: Diego pitcher friendly park, but so is Seattle, So the
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: San Diego pitchers maybe they'll adapt better to this this park,
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: although that hasn't been the case so far in the series.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: The pitching hasn't been good, Darvish, you do have to
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: worry about the fact that two of his last four
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: starts he didn't go past four innings as well, so
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: that's a little bit alarming. Still, his other two starts
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: this month were fairly good against San Francisco week offense,
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: but against the Dodgers as well, good offense sothough that
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: one was at home, but the Dodgers had just seen
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: him the start before that, and he pitched better against
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: them to start after that, although the Dodgers are very
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: familiar with them regardless of whether they've seen him recently
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: or not. But overall, he has a four point zero
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: five YRRA and twenty one to five strike at walk
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: raceier this month. So Darvish, his numbers this month, I mean,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: they're okay. His command numbers are pretty good. Against Seattle,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: his numbers are pretty good and one hundred and four
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: at bats. They've seen a lot of them because I
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: believe he was on Texas for a while, right, so
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Seattle has seen him. But he's got a forty to
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: three strikeout walk ratio against them, very very good strike
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: up walk ratio against them, two thirty one outs average
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: allot in six to sixty six ops allowed, So Darvish
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: has done well against Seattle. He's going up against Brian
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Wu who has been really good throughout his career so far.
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: Two point nine to four ERA point nine to four
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: whip again one of the guys with a sub one whip.
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: He's in the sub one whip club, the club one
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: whip very very good. Two point two eighty R at home.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: He's really good at home. He's been really good this
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: month with a thirty three to five strikeout walk race
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: here in two point eight ra after he had a
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: couple of if he starts last month, but his command
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: numbers remained good throughout the last month as well. He's
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: doing really well right now. I mean he's wu. He
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: rarely doesn't do well, especially at home. His numbers are
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: good against San Diego and forty seven at bats, ten strikeouts,
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: one walk. He's allowed three on runs, which is a
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: little concerning, two of them to Tatis though, so maybe
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: he'll be able to pitch around him. Two thirty four
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: batting average allowed six to seventy six ops. Still good,
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: so you know you're gonna get a low total in
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: this game given what this aren't pitching matchup is, and you.
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Darvish is a name that carries a lot of weight.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: Despite what his era looks like. Total's actually gone up
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit to seven and a half, heavily juiced
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: to the over, fift tickets and sixty six percent of
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over. I mean, I think the
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: argument maybe for the over here would just be that
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: the bullpens are overworked right now, so you might not
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: be able to trust the bullpens. I do think the
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: early portions of this game should probably be low scoring.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I think both starting pitchers might duel their way through
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: the first part of this game. So first five inning
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: under kind of makes sense to me. But if you
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: can't get better than three and a half, I don't
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: think you I don't know. I mean, you know me.
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I don't like that three and a half number at
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: under four. If you can pay not that much for it,
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: maybe you could do that in the first five, because
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: again I would probably not trust the bullpens given how
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: unrested they are right now, and the money seems to
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: be coming in on Seattle up for minus one thirty
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: five to minus one thirty seven, sixty six percent of tickets,
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of the cash coming in on them. Both.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: These teams have a lot to play for. They're both
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: in second place and they're divisions in very close divisional
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: races right now, so they're both gonna show up here.
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, the money seems to coming in on Seattle.
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with that either. I mean, I
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: think WU is the more trustworthy over Darvish right now,
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: but just based on Darvish being a bit erratic right now,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: WU is definitely way more consistent. Again, if you want
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: to go with the Seattle, maybe limited to first five innings,
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: because I do think San Diego still is a bullpen
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: edge all right. Now we get into the evening slate here,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: which one of my plays will be coming up. My
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: plays are both on the evening card. Boston at Baltimore,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: My Red Sox at Baltimore. Red Sox getting a little
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: bit of revenge for getting swept in a two game
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: series in Fenway against Baltimore not too long ago. Baltimore
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: has lost both these games this series. The Red Sox
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: so far the lost five of their last six games.
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Baltimore not playing well right now. By the way, I
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: did give out Baltimore in that one game that they won,
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: so yay to me this series. I mean the market
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: Reid has kind of been on ball Baltimore of the
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: series that they haven't gotten it done, and they got
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: shut out yesterday five nothing. Even though Bradish was really
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: good in his return, I was worried because his triple
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: A numbers weren't that good. Because I said I leaned
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: to the under in that game yesterday, it did wind
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: up going under. Of course, of course one of my leans,
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: which wasn't one of my players, winds up not getting there.
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: How awesome is that? Bullpen wise, Red Sox have the
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: better bullpen, they have the better offense as well, they're
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: the better team obviously bullpen rest wise, the Red Sox
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: actually have more rest as well. They only used Wilson
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: out of the bullpen yesterday, So the Red Sox have
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: a lot of advantages in this game. And I think
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: you gotta givehim a starting pitching edge too, because Baltimore
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: is basically going with a bullpen game here. Red Sox
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: is going with Brian Bao, who he's the guy that
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: I was knocking for basically his entire Red Sox tenure
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: because he was always putting way too many guys on base,
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: but I think they figured out something with his mechanics.
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: I think the fact that his wife and his baby
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: finally were able to enter the US the only pro
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: immigration stands I will ever take help out the Red Sox,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox foreign players since they were able to
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: enter the country. I think that's helped his mental state
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: as well. I mean, he was a guy that really
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: he was just getting in his own head way too much.
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: I think that's not happening anymore either. His numbers are
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: good this year, three point oh seven ERA, and even
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: his whip is not that bad at this point, one
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: point two two, almost the same exact ra home and away.
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: He's been good recently, of course, over the last couple
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: of months, his numbers have been way better, his command
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: numbers way better. His ERA was good the entire season.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: He was like getting getting himself out of jams early
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: in the season, even when he wasn't pitching well. But
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: now he is two point five two ERA this month
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: and four starts nineteen to five strike a walk ratio.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Did have one kind of bad start at San Diego,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: but other than that, he's allowed three or fewer earned
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: runs in every start going all the way back into May,
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: so that does seem like it was more of like
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: a blip on the BAO radar there on the bed ar.
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: But maybe you worry a little bit because he's coming
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: off of a really, really good start against the Yankees,
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: and you know how monumental these games against the Yankees. Are.
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: He shut them out, He dueled Max Freed, shut them
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: out for seven innings. I wound up getting the win
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: in the game. Only give up three hits, one walk,
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: five strikeouts, so his walk numbers have gone way down.
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: Maybe you worry a little bit though, because that was
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: a huge start for him. But they didn't overwork him though.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: He threw ninety two pitches so he was fairly efficient
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: with his pitches in that one. He's thrown over one
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: hundred pitches multiple times this year, so not really concerned
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: about that pitch count there, but just how big of
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: a start that was. Maybe he's in for a little
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: bit of a let down here. His numbers are pretty
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: good against Baltimore though. In his career forty eight at bats,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: fifteen to four strikeout walk ratio, two twenty nine batting
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: average allowed in six eighty four oh ps. He's been
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: pretty good against the Orioles, so maybe he will come
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: out and do well here. Orioles have Dietrich Ends listed
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: as their starter. Ze Jerman, I guess he doesn't have
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: good numbers four point nine to seven ERA, one point
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: five to WHIP. He is better at home four point
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: oh two ERA, but he's basically a relief pitcher man.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: He was with Detroit, and even though Detroit is in
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: the middle of a playoff race and of course Baltimore
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: is out of it, he got traded to Baltimore. So
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: you gotta think that when a guy gets traded to
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: a team that's not a contender from a contender, you
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: gotta think their mental state about that is probably not
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: that great. Although he's pitched alright since then. He has
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: a three point nine to seven ERA in all relief appearances.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: I believe this month o they're all short appearance is
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: the very least with Baltimore, so he is pitching well.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if we really need to handicap
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: him that much here because we pretty much know he's
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: only gonna go probably a couple of innings in this game.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: He'll be an opener and then Baltimore will dip into
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: their bullpen again here, So it's essentially a bullpend game
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: for Baltimore. The Red Sox to at least have more
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: to play for, which is what I was about to say,
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: because they're fighting for playoff positioning and Baltimore is out
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: of it. On the Baltimore they'll still show why because
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: it's the Red Sox, I mean, coming into their place.
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: You know, Baltimore showed will show up for these divisional matchups.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: But I think you got to give the Red Sox
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge still. I mean, it's Bao who's
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: been bitch you well against a bullpen game. So the
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: Red Sox have pretty much every edge here. But is
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: the price too costly? The professional money seems to be
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: saying it is, although as I said, the professional money
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: has been coming in on Baltimore every game in the
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: series and it has not worked out so far. Seventy
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: four percent of tickets, only fifty three percent of the
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: cash on the Red Sox, and they've dropped for minus
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: one to fifty five on the money line to minus
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: one thirty two. So the money has dropped on the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: Red Sox a bit. So I mean there's no way
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: I would recommend a play on the Red Sox. Looking
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: at that market read, there's just no way and Bao
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: could be in a bit of a letdown spot, so
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: you gotta worry about that a little bit. We'll see
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: what happens, though, man. I mean, I don't really want
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: to recommend to play on Baltimore either, because I don't
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: think they really have any matchup edge necessarily in the game.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: The totals at nine fifty percent tickets on the under,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: ninety four percent of the cap the under. It's a
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: high total, though the money looks like it's coming in
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: on the under. But the total's got to be high
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: for a reason, man Beao, even though his numbers are good,
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: seeing a high toll of their seems to kind of
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: indicate the Osbakers do think this will be a higher
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: scoring game, even though Red Sox Baltimore all for of
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: their recent games have gone under the total. I'm pretty sure.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: So it's kind of difficult to actually want to play
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: an over here, though I could see the Red Sox
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: getting to this Baltimore bullpen situation they got going on here.
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is possible that maybe you could go
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Red Sox over their team total in this game. Maybe,
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: but I kind of worry about that because the money's
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: coming in against the Red Sox, so who knows, man Nate,
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? Yes? I did one last week as
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: well for Week zero. The college football show is usually
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: around midnight Friday night, but this week is bizarre because
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: there's a huge board on Thursday, which I hate for
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: college football. That's tomorrow, So I'm like, does that mean
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: I have to do a show tonight because it's like,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: how am I gonna do that? Plus base Baltimore, which
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I handicapped baseball way too thoroughly here and it's not
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: even going well for me. So I think starting tomorrow
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: and maybe I'll just not handicapped baseball as in detail,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: I'll give out baseball plays still and then talk about
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: like the bigger baseball games, maybe something along those lines,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: because this is just it just takes way too much time. Man,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Minnesota Toronto, I'm gonna skip that game. But yeah, college football,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: there's a chance that I do a show tonight and
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: maybe maybe I even cover the entirety of Week one
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: tonight in college football. Don't know, because I haven't really
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: thoroughly handicapped it yet. I do have one play that
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: I probably should have given out already because the money,
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: the line has moved on it, which I mean, you guys,
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: you're watching my show, so I'll tell you what it is.
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: I mean it is Texas plus the points against Ohio State,
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: which is the biggest matchup of the weekend to it.
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: I actually like the Texas side, which I'll break down
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: when I do talk about college football. But you could
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: have gotten a plus three on Texas not that long ago,
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: and now I think the best you can do is
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: like a one and a half. I still think Texas
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: will win the game, but I mean, you'd much rather
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: have the three point you know, cushion there than taking
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: fewer points than that. You know, it's obviously a way
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: better numbers. You've missed a key number in that one.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: But I do like the Texas side in that one. Minnesota, Toronto,
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: actually Philly, New York ause you can see in the title.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: Those are my two plays today. They're both gonna be
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: on sides, so I will skip those for now. Arizona
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: and the Brewers. Yes, Ohio Ohio State. Yeah, you like
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the Milwaukee Bucks. Yeah, I don't know what's gonna happen
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: with the bucks Man and they just they have a
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: super talented team, and I think they won a championship
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: not that long ago, right, But since then, they've just
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: been massively injured the whole time. They don't have Lillard anymore, right,
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: because they traded him back to Portland. But I mean,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: he's an injury prone man at this point, so I
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: don't even know if that's that much of a loss.
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: They still got Yannis there, and they got some pretty
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: good players on the Bucks. Still, they got who's that
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: big guy again? Really good player for the Bucks. I
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: don't know why I have a stroke brain. I can't
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: think of anybody's name anymore. He actually was on Bar
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: Rescue not that long agoing Bar Rescue had a Milwaukee
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: episode where they brought that guy in for recon. I
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: can't remember his name. One of the big guys on
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: the Bucks, one of their better players. Yeah, but anyway, Yes,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: college football. I may have a show tonight, so keep
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: an eye out on that for that. It'll be really
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: late and it'll either be tonight or it'll be Friday night,
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: or it'll be both. So that's what I can tell you.
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Right now, I gotta decide what I want to do.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, I just make up my schedule as I go, man,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: and I will be on Jose's show tonight, although it'll
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: be Patreon only at first. We're doing another live reading series.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be reading Chaos there with Bob Murphy, So
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: I'm doing plugs in the middle of the show here,
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: let's just do plugs now, why not at least that
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: plug so in no way, Jose, you can be on
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: the lookout for that as well. Because people seem to
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: like our hopa series that we finished up with Democracy
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: the Guy that failed last week. We're doing a shorter
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: book this time Bob Murphy Chaos Theory. That'll start tonight
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: for Patreons of Jose's. But if you want to wait,
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: you can wait on that. And I think he puts
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: it out like maybe within the next week or so
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: Arizona at Milwaukee, but we will record that tonight. I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: don't think it's live for anybody now, but I think
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: he puts it out to Patreons like immediately. Milwaukee is
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: won of the first two games of the series, so
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee is on the verge of a sweep here. Well,
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: they overlook Arizona because Arizona is out of it. I
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: don't know, but they actually play tomorrow too, so it's
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: not sweep scenario yet here for Milwaukee. But Milwaukee has
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: something to play for because they're trying to maintain their
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: stranglehold on the division and the one seed, while Arizona
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: is definitely out of it. But Arizona, I mean, you
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: got to figure the show up. They've lost both games
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: in the series. They're facing a good Milwaukee team here.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: You know they're gonna show up. Milwaukee has the better bullpen,
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: though Arizona used a lot of their bullpen yesterday as well,
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: so the bullpen used to just heavier on Arizona side
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: as well. Milwaukee definitely the better bullpen shape here. Arizona
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: has the better offense, but Milwaukee's is not that far behind.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee just slightly worse at home though offensively. Ryan Nelson
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: pitching for Arizona interesting man, because to me, you know,
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: if you watch my show, I've been talking about how
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: Ryan Nelson I don't understand how his numbers look like
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: this this year three point six three era one point
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: oh seven whip at the age of twenty seven. How
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: is that possible when his era has been in the
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: fives in the fours. In his previous couple of seasons,
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: his whip has been basically one point three something throughout
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: that span, so how could he possibly be that significantly better?
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: It never made any sense to me, So you know me, man,
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to gauge this stuff, and I'm not gonna
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: make any accusations or am I. But if you watched
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: his last start, he had this huge spot on his visor.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: They kept touching and people are like, oh, it's just
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: like liquid, man, Like, well, what liquid? Like? Are you
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: supposed to have any substance on your visor like that
• 41:57
  Speaker 1: at all? But it was brown, Like to me, it
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: looked like pine And you know, if you watch baseball,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: there's usually like one pine tar incident every year, Like
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: last year it was Renelle Blanco on Houston and he
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: was pitching really really, like inexplicably well, and then he
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: got caught with the pine tar. And where is he now?
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: Who the hell knows. I don't even know where he is.
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: Maybe he's out of baseball and I think he's injured.
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: But that was He's one of Houston's pitchers. But to me,
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: it looked like Ryan Nelson had pine tar and his hat. Man,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: it would kind of explain why his numbers have been
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: skewed so much this year to him being way better
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: and why his numbers are inexplicably way better at home,
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: specifically because maybe he's doing it at home more than
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: he's doing it on the road, because maybe he think
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: he can get away. He thinks he can get away
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: with it more, because why the hell would his numbers
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: be way better at home? Think about this. He pitches
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: in a very hitter friendly stadium at home, at Chase Field.
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: Why would his home era be that much better than
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: it is on the road when look at the teams
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: that he plays on the road in his division San Francisco,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: terrible offense, really, pitch at Friendly Park. San Diego not
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: a good offense, really Pitcher Friendly Park. So when he's
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: facing those teams on the road, why would he do
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: that much worse in those parks on the road. It
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: makes absolutely zero sense. Although yeah, I mean course Field okay, fine,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: but Rocky's offense isn't good, So again, it doesn't make
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: any sense unless there's some hidden variable there. So that's
• 43:18
  Speaker 1: what I'll say about Ryan Nelson. Yes, he's bad on
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: the road. Like I said, five point oh one ERA
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: on the road, so if you want to fade him,
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: you're gonna probably do better if you fade him on
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: the road, which he is today this month, twenty four
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: to four strike a walkers. You're really good command numbers.
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: But Arizona lost three of his four starts. He has
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: a five point four ERA this month, so his ERA
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: has been pretty elevated this month. So he hasn't really
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: been in the greatest form. And yes, a couple of
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: those are on the road against Texas. Again, pitcher friendly park,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: bad offense, and he did terribly in that start against Texas,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: So again what is going on here? And he didn't
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: do particularly well in course field either. The last time out.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: Nelson against the Brewers has really good numbers, only twenty
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: seven at bats. It's not a huge sample size nine
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: zero strike out, walk ratio one forty eight average allowed
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: three thirty three oh ps. He's been good against the
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: Brewers again. He faced the Brewers this year at home
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: only in a three inning stint though in that game,
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: but he pitched well in that one as well. He
• 44:19
  Speaker 1: allowed one and run had three strikeouts of no walk
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: So again, was he doing something back then? I don't know.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: Man but again, he's on the road here. I'm not
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: sure that I expect him to do particularly well in
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: this particular outing. He's going up against Quinn Priester, who,
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: just based on his numbers, like the analytics guys will
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: tell you he's worse than Ryan Nelson a three point
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: four to four ERA one point twenty six whip. I mean, yeah,
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: his whip is definitely worse. I agree with that. Normally,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: when I look at stats, I'm looking at the whip.
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: Watch me whip and watch me say nay nay to
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: a guy who has a high whip. Yeah. But Quinn Priester, yes,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: I mean I think he is overperforming. But he's young,
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: so with him, it's more likely that he actually, like
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: has an improvement in his career, you know what I mean,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: Because we haven't seen the best of him yet. Ryan Nelson,
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: I think you've already seen basically his peak, which is
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: what makes it more bizarre. Quinn Priester three point seven
• 45:10
  Speaker 1: to ninety RA at home, so he's been a little
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: bit worse at home. But of course the talk about
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: Quinn Priester is that the Brewers have now won fifteen
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: straight outings of his I accidentally say, fifteen starts. Sometimes
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: in a couple of the outings he actually came in
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: in relief. I'm pretty sure, Priester, I think they had
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: an opener pitch in front of him in a couple
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: of these outings. But they've mostly been full starts for him.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: But in the games where there was an opener in
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: front of him, he came out and still pitched like
• 45:36
  Speaker 1: four or five innings immediately after that out of the bullpen.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: He's pitching well, though, though a little bit worse this month.
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: Four point twenty ninety ra fifteen to nine strike a
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. That's concerning the most concerning stuff that we've
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: seen this month. That he gave up six earned runs
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: to the Mets and they still wound up coming back
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: and winning that game. And then he walked five guys.
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Last outing at the Cobs at Wrigley only went four
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: and third. They held them to one ear and run,
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: so he somehow got out of some jams in that game. Man, again,
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: he's just been he's difficult to beat. I mean, that's
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: just the way that it is. Although Arizona's good numbers
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: off him, it's only in ten at bats though four
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: hundred batting average eight to fifty five OPS, two strikeouts,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: one walk. So it's such a small sample size. I
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: don't even know if you can really pay attention really
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: for both of these pitchers. So I don't know what
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: you would want to even do with this game. I mean,
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: I saw some market indicators on Arizona as the line
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: initially dropped for minus one forty five to minus one
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: thirty eight on the Brewers money line, but seventy two
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: percent to take. It's eighty nine percent of the cash
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: on the Brewers, so the money seasonally coming in on
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: the Brewers again. I think the thought with that is
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: that even though Nelson has the better matchup numbers, he's
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: bad on the road. So that's you got to factor
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: then into the handicap man. But it's tough to do
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: that because it's conflicting factors. I try to see. I
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: try to find factors that all kind of line up.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: Although my baseball season, I know, hasn't been that good.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: It's been a losing baseball season for me, I'm pretty sure,
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: and I'm as far as the year is concerned, I'm
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: like slightly below a break even point, which I know
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: is bad, and mostly because March was unbelievably bad though,
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: fifty tickets on the under, seventy percent of the cash
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: on the over, even though the total is now down
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: to eight and a half juice to the under, but
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: we see cash percentage on the over. I mean, I
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: could kind of see an argument for that too, just
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: that Nelson bad on the road, two good offenses, don't
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: trust Arizona's bullpen at all, Priesters probably overperforming. Those would
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: probably be the arguments for the over in this one,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: but that's not gonna be a game. I'll touch Kansas
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: City at the White Sox. These teams have split the
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: first two games of this series. We're dealing with two
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: pretty bad offenses. Year, we're dealing with Kansas City having
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: a bullpen edge, and they actually have an offensive edge
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: even though both offenses are bad. But Kansas City us
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: four relief pitchers yesterday I think it was four. That
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: sometimes I miss it because it's not shaded in a
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: deeper blue when the pitcher only throws like a single
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: digit pitch comp But the White Sox used a similar
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: amount of their bullpen yesterday, four relief pitchers, So Kansas
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: City gets the bullpen edge here. Starting pitching. I think
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Kansas City actually gets the starting pitching edge. Two. Kansas City,
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: I guess, technically still fighting to stay alive in the
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: playoff race. Two. Ryan Burgeier is pitching for the Royals.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: They got him from San Diego right before the trade deadline,
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: so San Diego actually was willing to deal him away
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: even though they're trying to make sure they make the playoffs.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: Bjerer having a pretty good season, though, two point seven
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: to ninety RA one point zero nine whip between his
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: two teams, even better on the road two point four
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: to eighty RA, which is interesting because the two teams
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: he's been on have pitcher friendly ballparks. He's been pretty
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: good since coming over to Kansas City, even though Kansas
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: City's offense is so bad that they're one to three
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: in his four starts, but not really his fault. He's
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer earned runs and all of them
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: twenty two to six strike a walk ratio two point
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: eight two ERA, so he's been pretty good in those starts,
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: although he hasn't gone more than five to two thirds
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: innings in any of them, so he's not going deep
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: into the starts. Did have one start against the White Sox,
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: so the White Socks are now recently familiar with him
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: because of that, so he did well. He give up
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: one on and run five and a third, seven strikeouts,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: two walks, but and six hits a lot. Isn't that terrific?
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: But because the White Soce just saw him, they might
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: do better against him this time out, of though, of course,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: because he did well that time out, it means his
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against him. They're only four for twenty
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: off him seven to two strike at walker race year
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: two hundred average six seventy three oh ps. But again,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: because the White Sox just saw him, and I think
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: that was the first time they saw him. Now they
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: know what he throws, the familiar rhythm, So you got
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: to expect Breger may not do as well this time out.
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: He's going up against Aaron Savali, who did not get
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: dealt by the White Sox at the trade deadline. He's
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: not having a good season though, five point oh two ERA,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: one point three to eight whip. He's been really bad
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: at home six point three eighty RA at home not
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: good this month either, six point nine to seventy RA,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: twenty two to nine strike a walk ratio it's a
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: lot of strikeouts, but it's a pretty high number of
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: walks as well. He also pitched against Kansas City a
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: couple of starts ago, and he did pretty well in
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: that one, give it three on runs at six innings.
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: That game was at Kansas City, so he did do
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: well in that particular start. His numbers are good against
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: Kansas City and one hundred and thirty one at Bass,
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: so they are really familiar with him. Twenty five to
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: eight strike a walk ratio two pH six, batting average allowed,
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: six to fifty six o ps, so Savali does have
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: good matchup members. The two pitchers have good matchup numbers,
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: but because they both were recently seen by the opposing offenses,
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: I actually worry a little bit about the pitchers doing
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: well this time. Kansas City is a very public road favorite.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: Up for minus one twenty minus one twenty seven ninety percent,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: takes ninety percent of the cash on them, so the
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: cash percentage seems to be fading them. It seems like
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: the professional money sees a little bit of value taking
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: the White Sox. I'm not really sure I would agree
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: with that. In Berjere, even though he might regress a
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: little bit off of his last start. He's still probably
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: the better pitcher than Savales in better form right now
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: at least, but the money coming in on the over
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: sixty four percent of tickets on the over ninety seven
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the over total kind of
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: just sitting eight and a half juice to the over.
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: If you want the over, I mean, I just worried
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: that the offense is stink and that Kansas City's bullpen
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: is at least pretty capable. You gotta kind of I mean,
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: if you want the over, you're gonna need both starting
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: pitchers to actually do badly in this game, and I'm
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: not quite sure that that's gonna happen. So I would say, well, though,
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: the argument for that would be that both offenses just
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: saw these starting pitchers. Pittsburgh is at Saint Louis. Saint Louis,
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: these two teams split the first two ends of the series,
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: and Contreras for the Cardinals now is facing a six
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: game suspension because he got angry, he got ejected from
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: I think last night's game, and the suspension is because
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: he threw his bat and the bat I guess hit
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: the Saint Louis pitching coach. So he threw his bat.
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think he did that, and I don't think
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: he was trying to anybody intentionally with the bat throw,
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: but obviously he got really angry and reckless. It just
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: chucked his bat, and I think it either hit or
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: almost hit his own pitching coach or something like that.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: In well, actually pitching coach wouldn't make any sense, right,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Why would the pitching coach be in the dugout it
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: hit one of their coaches, maybe the hitting coach, I
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: don't know, or it almost hit him, whatever it was,
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: that's the reason why he's facing a suspension, although I
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: think he will still be there tonight because he's appealing it.
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if that means he's gonna be
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: out of the lineup tonight, I'm not sure. So that's
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: part of the handicap here. At least he's he factors
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: into Saint Louis's offense, although how much does he factor in,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know, And I guess he also threw chewing gum,
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: which I guess he can't do, which makes no sense, right,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: I mean in baseball picture, guys spinning seeds and tobacco,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: some flower or seeds whatever, and spinning gum out in
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: the dugout and whatever. So that just seems normal to me.
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: So I don't know what the thing with the gum was.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: I think it was mostly the bat. As far as
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: this game, though both offenses are bad. Saint Louis does
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: have the better offense, but they've been struggling a bit recently.
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis has the better bullpen, although yeah, I mean
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh their bullpen's fairly rested here. The bullpen's not awful.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's really bad offensively though, but Saint Louis's offensive contraras
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: isn't in the lineup, will take a little bit of
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: a step back. Pittsburgh has Carmen Molodzinsky listed as a starter.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's basically a converted reliever. He's not great.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: Three point eight nine e RA is pretty good, but
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: one point three whip getting a little bit on the
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: high side. He's pretty bad on the road, five point
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: one ERA on the road. Again, He's not going deep
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: into any of these outings, though his numbers this month
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: are actually good one point eight four ERA eighteen to
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk ratio, but he's not making deep
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: out like outings right, like, he's going two three, four innings.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Hard to gauge what you're gonna get out of him,
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: and then on average you're probably gonna get about three
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: or so innings maybe out of him in this start
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: would be my guess. He does have good numbers against
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis, though they're only six for forty three off
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: them with sixteen strikeouts two walks, so he's held them
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: down when he's faced them one forty average allowed three
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: eighty seven oh ps. Some load. Zinsky might be good
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: while he's in there, but he's probably not gonna be
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: in there that long, like I said, so you gotta
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: worry about Pittsburgh's bullpend coming in after that. Contreras is
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: still listed as being in their lineup, but he is
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: only one for seven off Loadzinsky. But again, Pittsburgh will
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: be going with their bullpen after that, and Saint Louis
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: has their more consistent starter on the mound of lead. Well,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say he's consistent, but he's at least the
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: more proven starter. Let's say. Let's put it that way,
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: with Sonny Gray on the mound four point three to
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: three era, though I mean he's been getting worse. He's
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: wearing down. I think he's kind of an older dude now.
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: He's been good throughout his career, but I think he's
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: just not as good now as he was earlier in
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: the season because he's tiring out. Four point three three ERA,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: even though he's a veteran. You think he'd be used
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: to it, but its ERA has gone way up one
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: point two. Whip is not really that good at this
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: point either. His numbers have been getting worse, although he
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: is better at home three point seven six ERA at
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: home this month. I mean, his numbers really aren't actually
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: that bad this month, twenty eight to five strike at
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. Again, he continues to have a good strike
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: at walk ratio, but he gets bombed by a bunch
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: of home runs. Last month, he was allowing a ton
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: of hits, although that's not really happening this month. Hera's
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: four point one to three this month, and really his
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: only bad start was against the Yankees, so maybe you
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: give him a pass for that because he's allowed three
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: or fewer earned runs and the other three starts, and
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: they were at the Dodgers, against the Cubs and at Tampa,
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: which is a hitter friendly ballpark, so he is actually
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: pitching a little bit better this month than prior to that.
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: So maybe he's not wearing out and he's facing a
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: weak offense in Pittsburgh. Here, they got one hundred and
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: fourteen at bats against him, but they don't have a
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: good track record against him thirty six to seven strike
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, two twenty eight average allowed, six seventy
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: six to ozh ps allowed. So Gray does have good
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: numbers against Pittsburgh. I mean, I would I don't know, man,
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think Gray does have the upper hand
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: in the starting pitching matchup, but I think maybe the
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: un or is the better way to look early in
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: this game. I mean, the money's coming in against Saint
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: Louis down for minus one ninety to minus one sixty five,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets, only sixty three percent of
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: the cash, So I don't think there's any way you
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: can play Saint Louis on a money line that's this substantial.
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: I do think they have the edge and basically all
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: the aspects of this game, but the under is taking
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: money fifty five percent tickets on the over, eighty four
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. Total is sitting
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: at a very low seven and a half juice to
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: the under, so you do have to worry about that.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: I worry about the bullpens a little bit, although at
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: least Pittsburgh's rested and they're not that bad, So if
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: you wanted to go full game under, maybe that is
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: still the best way to go with this game. And
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: even though Pittsburgh's bullpend will be in the game, which
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: does definitely worry me, he's certainly not gonna give it
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: out as a play, but again, that might be the
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: way to go. Oddspeakers are telling you something with the
• 56:47
  Speaker 1: total this low, and there's no way you're gonna find
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: better than like a three and a half in the
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: first five innings here. The Bullpens aren't like bullpens that
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: you totally want to fade just every single game. So
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: maybe that's the way to look at that game. Anaheim
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: in Texas, of course, Anaheim let me down. Yesterday Texas
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: lost the first game of this series. Won yesterday, of course,
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: so the teams have split this series. By the way,
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Saint Louis both completely out of the race there,
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: so something to take into account. Texas, I think is
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: still technically fighting to try to do something this season,
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: but they're like on the verge of basically being eliminated
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: and losing two games ago might not have helped, but
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: they did win last night. Anaheim is definitely out of
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: an Anaheim actually has a worse run differential than Texas does,
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: even though Anaheim has a better offense. Texas offense very weak,
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: especially at home, but Texas has maybe the best pitching
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: in all baseball, which is keeping them afloat, and they
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: actually have a better run differential than Anaheim significantly. Even
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: though anaheim The record isn't that much worse than Texas's,
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: Anaheim has allowed a lot more runs and they've then
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: they've scored this season compared to what Texas has done.
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: The bullpens in aaria. Texas only used one guy in
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: relief yesterday, so Texas bullpen big advantage here. Even though
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: Texas is at an offensive disadvantage. Pitching matters more in
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: my opinion, Anaheim's bullpen is less rested and their bullpen
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: is worst. The starting pitching matchup in this game is
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: just atrocious. Though Jack Kolhanowitz is coming back for Anaheim here,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: I think he's been up and down between the majors
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: and the miners. I mean, his numbers are not cutting
• 58:24
  Speaker 1: it at the major league level Man. Six point one
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: to nine ERA, one point six to nine whip that's
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: not good. ERA is almost exactly the same both home
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: and away. He did make two starts earlier this month,
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: and they sent him back down after he had an
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: eleven ERA across those two starts, three strikeouts, four walks,
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: really really bad numbers. Last time it only lasted three
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: innings against Detroit and still through eighty four pitches. So
• 58:49
  Speaker 1: he's inefficient with his pitches as well. He's not even
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: a strikeout guy. He walks too many guys. Not a
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: lot of Not anything good to say about kohanowitz Man.
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: The best thing I could say about him is that
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: he tall. That's the only thing I could give you
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: against Well, I'll give you one other thing. He's actually
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: good against Texas for the most part. In sixty five
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: at bats, two thirty one average, A lots six seventy
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: eight ops. Not bad numbers for him against them. Five
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: to nine strike out walk ratio is not good though,
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: so again, not not a good strike at walk ratio Man.
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Not enough strikeouts, a few too many walks, I don't
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: know what we're gonna get out of him in this
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: game man, to be honest, but at least it's not
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: the worst matchup for him. He's going up against Jacob
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Lats for the Rangers. Lots Lats three point zero five
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: Yarra one point two to nine whip for them. His
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: whip is a little bit too high, but he's basically
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: a relief pitcher. He is better at home two point
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: five two ERA. He's pretty much made just shortened appearances
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: almost every time this season, but he's He did make
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: one five inning appearance against Detroit Ne only give up
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: one eared run in that outing, so that was actually
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: almost a full start for him, and he did well there.
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: And he actually went six innings against Baltimore in what
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: was basically a full start at one point, only gave
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: up two hour and runs in that outing, so he
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: actually did fairly well in the two like full starts
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: that he's made. I don't know if he's gonna do
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: it here though or not. He actually missed about a
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: month's time and then he came back, went three and
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: a third innings against the Royals and shut them out
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: over that span, so he did well in that outing
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: as well, four strikeouts, one walk in that outing is
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: only outing this month so far, and gave up one hit.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: So he's in pretty good form right now, at least.
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: Difficult to gauge what you're gonna get out of him,
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: like how long he's gonna last in this game, I
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: guess would be maybe about four innings is maybe what
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: you can expect out of him in this game. And
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: then Texas bullpen is rested and they are pretty good,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: so maybe it's not that bad of a thing. He's
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: been good against Anaheim. It's only fourteen at batsworth but
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: one hit against them that he's allowed al though it's
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: a home run from Darnault. But he also has eight
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: strikeouts against them in one walk, seventy one average, four
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: nineteen obs. So lats is basically dominated. Maybe he has
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: nice lats man, maybe he works those things out, but
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: he's basically dominated Anaheim. Uh So, I think you probably
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: have to lean to Texas in this game. I think
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: they have the better of the matchup, the pitching matchup,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: basically across the boarder, though they've dropped from out this
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: one to sixty one fifty one ninety two percent tickets
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash coming into them, so
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 1: they're public, but it does look like the cash coming
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: in on their side as well. I mean, if you
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: want Texas, you I mean that means you probably have
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: to go with like a oh my god, you'd have
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: to maybe go with the run line on them. But
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: it's so difficult to go with the Texas run line
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: at home or they might not baden the night. Then
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: they're notoriously low scoring at home, so it's very difficult
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: to do that. Although the total is pretty high, it's
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: gone down from nine and a half to nine sixty
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: percent tickets seventy two percent of the cash in the over,
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: so the money even it does actually seem like it's
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: coming in slightly on the over though, I mean that
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: moved downward on the total wasn't really that significant. If
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: you do like the over, you got to make sure
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 1: you go over nine and not nine and a half though,
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: because nine is the key number there. I mean, I
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: could definitely see Cohana it's given up runs here. So
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: maybe the way to do it, because Kohanowitz is bad,
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: Anaheim's bullpen is bad, maybe you go Texas over their
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: team total in this game. But still Texas is so
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: low scoring at home that's really a difficult proposition as well.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: So this is a very difficult game to actually want
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: to actually put your money on, man, because it seems
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: like the way that the game will work out is
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: something that's against you know, what's been happening most of
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: the season. Colorado at Houston. My opinion on this is
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 1: that Houston provi shad bounce back. I mean, they returned
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: home yesterday from a road trip, and you know, returning
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip is not a good situation.
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: They lost a win streak in the previous game, so
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: they lost yesterday. Teams when they return home from a
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: road trip sometimes they get caught in distracted spot. They
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: I don't think they took Colorado seriously, but when you
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: get embarrassed in your first game back, the second game
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: usually do a lot better because you realize, oh shit,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: we need to refocus here. You're basically done with doing
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: whatever you had to do back at home, so you
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: tend to refocus. And Houston, of course, unlike Colorado, Houston
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: is really in a heated battle here. They're trying to
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: maintain their leading the Al West. They're trying to make
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: sure they get the best playoff scenario that they can here.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: So I think Houston is in a situation will bounce
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: back here. But looking at the matchup and looking at
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: the market, it seems well, the market seems to disagree
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: with it. The matchup doesn't really seem to indicate otherwise,
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: so the market seems to disagree with this. Houston. I mean,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: we know they have the better offense because Colorado's offense
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: is pathetic. Houston has the better bullpen as well, very
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: rested bullpen because they didn't play yesterday. I don't think
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: either of these teams did. But Houston only these two
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: relief pitchers yesterday and two three days ago. Colorado also
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: didn't play on Monday, but they used three relief pitchers yesterday.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: Houston obviously has a bullpen edge here. Actually, let me
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: see if is kimberl there with Houston now? He is
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: he actually pitched? Apparently he pitched on Sunday. Hilarious that
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: they picked him up, man, because they got some injuries. Man,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: Ruiney is injured now and then they have hater or
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: it might not even come back. Man, I don't know
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 1: if he's gonna be ready for the playoffs or not,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: but he was their closer. So but still, Houston's bullpen
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. Colorado has Chase Dollander on the mount,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: who is a talented young arm but hasn't worked out
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 1: for him. They basically threw him right into the fire man.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: You got to pitching course field as a young pitcher.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: That's difficult. His numbers are bad this year though, six
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: point nine one ERA, one point six to three WHIP.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: He's been good on the road though, three point nine
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: to five R on the road, so when you get
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: him away from Courtsefield, he does pitch significantly better. He's
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: been bad this month though, eight point one ERA, sixteen
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: to seven strike out walk ratio. He was bad in
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: both home starts though, so again he had one road
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: start where you only give him one on and run
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: against Saint Louis. So again, he is significantly better on
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 1: the road, so maybe you got to look at it
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: that way. His home road splits so crazy against Houston,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: those numbers are bad, and twelve at bats they're eight
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: for twelve off him, a home run from Kroteni, one walk,
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: no strikeout, six sixty six batting average allowed one thousand
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: and six ZO nine ops, so really bad numbers. But
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: that start was of course in course field when he
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: faced them, But that doesn't mean the Houston is familiar
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: with him now, so Houston might be able to unload
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: on him in this game as well. Uh, Houston has
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: the more trustworthy pitcher here with fromber Valdez three point
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 1: three to two ERA one point two to one whip.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: I know he's been worse recently though. He's in bad
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: recent form, although he's much better at home one point
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: eight five yr at home. Recent form, like I said,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: has been bad this month, really bad actually, seven point
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: three to three ERA, twelve to ten strike a walk
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: ratio that's atrocious. But the three bad starts were road
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: starts against the Red Sox of the Yankees in Detroit,
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: So I mean, yeah, if you're a good pitcher, you
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: should be able to do better in those starts than
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: he did. But I mean, he was facing some really
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: good offenses all on the road there, and now he's
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: coming back home to face a much much weaker offense,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: so he should do better here. Valdez. Remember, Houston won
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: about twelve starts in a row of his up into
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: late July, and then once he got knocked off off
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: in a good start against Washington, but his team gave
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: him no run support and they lost the game despite
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: him only a lying one on runs. Since then, they've
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: lost every one of his starts and he's just been
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: thrown off a bit. But at some point, I think
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: he's gonna bounce back. Maybe it'll happen here. Fourteen at
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: bats against Colorado, so they've only seen him once. Four strikeouts,
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: no walks, two fourteen average, six to forty three ohps,
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: a home run from Farmer. But Valdez has done pretty
• 1:06:26
  Speaker 1: well against Colorado. The only time he faced them looks
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: like it wasn't even this year, so Colorado's not recently
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: familiar with them. I guess he didn't pitch in that
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: course field series. It looks like so interesting, so I
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: think Valdez does have some matchup edges in this game.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: But the money's coming in against Houston, although maybe some
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: of that is a function of how heavy a favorite
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: they are. Down for minus three twenty five to minus
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: two to eighty five eighty two percent, take a sixty
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on them. I still expect
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: Houston bounces back and wins this game. But if you
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: like Houston, and you're laying way too much of a
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: price here. Interesting. I actually think the under may be
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: worth a look in this game, maybe just in the
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: first five innings, but eighty six percent of tickets ninety
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash in the over total has dropped
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: off from eight to eight. Juice to the under again
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: if you think Valdez is gonna pitch a little bit better,
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: because Dollander is just so much better on the road,
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: even though Houston. I worry because Houston is recently familiar
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: with them now, so that is a strike against him,
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: and his overall numbers are bad, but he's so much
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: better on the road. I could see this game being
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: a bit low scoring earlier in the game. So maybe
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: first five under is actually the way to look at
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: that game. And they just don't include Colorado's bullpen in
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: that equation. Cincinnati at the Dodgers, Man, I gotta get
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: throw all these games. Dodgers on the verge of maybe
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: sweeping Cincinnati here. I don't know who they have up next,
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: or is this game of four games series? Now? They
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: have Arizona next after they get tomorrow off, so that
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: is the divisional series? Does that mean it's gonna be
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: a look ahead for the Dodgers. I'm not so sure.
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Although the Dodgers Dodgers are fighting to maintain the lead
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: in the NL West, Cincinnati's fighting to try to even
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: make the last one cards. The Reds are like right
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: on the mets heels as far as the last wildcard,
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: so those two teams have to show up and play
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: as well. Cincinnati has the better of these two bullpens,
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: but the rest scenario isn't that great for them. I
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: they've used a little bit more of their bullpen recently,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: or actually the Dodgers us more yesterday, though the Dodgers
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: were rested up until yesterday. Cincinnati actually used fewer relievers yesterday,
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: so maybe that kind of evens it out. So Cincinnati
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 1: maybe has the bullpen edge once again. Here. Dodgers have
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: the offensive edge, that's pretty obvious. Cincinnati's got Nick Lodolo pitching,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: the guy talked about yesterday because he got a blister
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: on his finger when he was facing the Cubs and
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: he hasn't been back since then, so he was on
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: the injured list with that, and now he's finally coming back. Interestingly,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: because I mentioned him yesterday, because Nick Martinez came in
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 1: in relief in that start where he had to leave
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: with the blister. He's got a three point oh five
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: VRA one point oh three whip this season, so Lodolo
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: has been good, and he's been even better on the
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: road away from Great American, which is a hitter friendly park,
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: has two point one eighty round the road. Again, he
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: was off to a good start in that Cubs start too,
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: had shut them out for one to two thirds and
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: then had to leave the game with that blister on
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: his finger. Very unfortunate for him. He's now coming back.
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 1: His numbers against the Dodgers are mediocre. In twenty seven
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: at bats, he has a pretty good twelve three strikeout
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: walk ratio. They have good contact numbers against him two
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: ninety six average, but they have not in for power
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: a six sixty three ohps. So Lodolo does have decent numbers.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: I would say against the Dodgers, he's going up against
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: shoe Otani, who actually hasn't been pitching that well this month.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: He started off well. I mean, he's been a good
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: pitcher throughout his career, but remember he hasn't pitched for
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: multiple seasons now because he had that I think he
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: had an arm injury or something, and is based on
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: what his rehab was. He was able to come back
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: and hit way sooner than he was able to pitch,
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: and the Dodgers have been trying to ramp up his
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 1: pitching again to where he's a full fledged starter again,
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: but he started to struggle recently. He was pitching well
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: for a while, but now his era's up to four
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: point six one point two eight whip that's not that great,
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: and home he's been better two point five to four ERA,
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: but again, his last two starts, he's got nine and
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: a third in he's combined, both on the road though
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim and Colorado, so yeah, it was course field,
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: but he gave up nine earned runs in that span,
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 1: which wasn't good. However, he didn't walk anybody. He's still
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: had ten strikeouts in that span as well, so his
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: command numbers is still good. So this month it's like
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: what's going on here. He's got a seven point three
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: ERA but an eighteen to zero strikeout walk ratio, so
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: his strikeout rate is still really high. He's not walking anybody,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: but he gave up too many hits and maybe he
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 1: got a little bit unlucky too, because he's only given
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: him one o run over that span, So maybe he
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: will bounce back and do better here. I mean, there
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: are some indicators, mostly his command numbers remaining really excellent,
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: that he should pitch better again here. He does have
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: good numbers. When he's faced Cincinnati in the past, He's
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: held into a seven to thirty two clip, twelve strikeouts,
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: three walks, two nineteen batting average allowed, and five thirty
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: six ops allowed, So Tody has done well against them.
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: I lean towards him, actually, yeah, bouncing back in this game,
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: So I think maybe an under is worth a look
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: early in this one. The Dodgers are down for minus
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: two hundred to minus one ninety three on the money line.
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: Of course, you know they're gonna be a heavy favorite.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 1: Seventy four percent tickets eighty seven percent of the cash
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: coming in on them. Probably not the way that I
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: really want to look here. I think first five under
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: is actually the way to look at. Cincinnati still does
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: have the better bulpe and seventy six percent tickets ninety
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: two percent of the cash on the over, but the
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: total did drop a little from eight and a half
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: to eight juice to the over. I know the cash
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: she's coming in on the over, but I think isolate
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: the starting pitchers. Otani he hasn't gone five innings yet
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: in any of his starts, but he's gone more than
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: four in he's a couple of times. So Toni should
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: probably get you almost to the five inning mark in
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: this game, and Lodolo, I would guess, may very well
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: get you to five. Lodolo, I mean, he's a bit
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: of a veteran at this point too, so coming back
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 1: from a quick DL stint or whatever shouldn't really affect him.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: I think he should be ready to go, and he
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: should be pumped actually to rejoin the starting rotation. When
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: that happens, especially when it's a veteran, sometimes the team
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: rallies around them and they know they have to play. Well.
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: I'll get pumped up for their starter coming back. So
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: I think Cincinnati is in that spot. So I mean
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: I would actually slightly lean to Cincinnati on the run
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: line here, but again I think under first five innings
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: is probably the better way to look at that game.
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Cubs at San Francisco. I know we lost this one
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: too yesterday San Francisco. I thought they were in a
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: bad spot returning home from a road trip. They've won
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: three games in a row, big games, you know, though
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 1: San Francisco pretty much knows they're out of it now.
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: The Cubs need to win games. Man. The Cubs are
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: trying to make sure they make the playoffs here. They're
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: in a wildcard spot right now, but they want to
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: at least keep it that way, if not try to
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: contend for the division again here. Cubs may want to,
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: they may be trying. I mean, they're going to be
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: trying to bounce back here, but I don't know that
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 1: I love the matchup for the Cubs in this one, man.
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 1: San Francisco does have the better of the two bullpens.
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 1: They didn't use too much within the last two days.
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: The bullpen used to just pretty low for them. Cubs
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: really had very low usage as well the last two days.
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: Though both bullpends are pretty intact. They're both pretty good.
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: The Cubs have Colin Ray pitching, and he's at least
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: the more established of the two pitchers, and he's had
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: a decent season three point nine to sixty RA, one
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: point twenty nine whip. He has an older dude, though,
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: who isn't really a guy that comes out of blows
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: people away. More of a command pitcher. He's a little
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: bit better on the road. Three point eight to one
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: roady RA this month is numbers, some of his numbers
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: worrying me this month, even though he has a two
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: point five to three RA. The Cubs have won three
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: of his four starts, but he has an eighteen to
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: ten strike a walk ratio, so his walk rate has
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: gone up, which is a little bit alarming. You don't
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: want a guy coming out and walking that many guys, man,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: you just can't do it. So he is walking too
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: many guys, but he hasn't allowed too many hits, so
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: there is that aspect of it. So he's pitching it's
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 1: hard to say, and he's pitching mediocre. I guess this
• 1:13:50
  Speaker 1: month his numbers against the Giants are actually pretty bad
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: and thirty at bats. I know it's not a big
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: sample size, but five point five strike a walk ratio
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: is not good. Four hundred batting average, one thousand and
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: eighty six ops, so that's actually not good obviously. So
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: Ray actually has not been very good against the Giants
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: throughout his career. He's going up against Carson wizen Hunt,
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: who was a very young dude twenty four years old.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: I think this is his first season where he's been
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: in the majors and he hasn't been that great so far.
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: Four point nine one point four to two whip. I
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: know he's a guy that doesn't have a hard fastball,
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 1: but in baseball, major league baseball, it's not all about
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 1: the hard fastball. I mean, the better hitters can all
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: hit hard fastballs. You gotta be able to locate, you
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: gotta be able to mask your pitches. You gotta be
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: able to fool hitters. And the thing about wizen Hunt
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: is he has like a really really good change up,
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: but I think he's got to figure out how to
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: use it and how to blend it with his other pitches.
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: His last two starts, after his first two starts he
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: went five five plus innings of both of them. His
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: last two starts, he only went four innings in each.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: But he's allowed three or four earned runs in the
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: last three, which is in two battle. Those thirteen to
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: nine strike a walk ratio is not that good. Again,
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: he's not really a huge strikeout picture, I guess, but
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: the walk numbers a little bit high and really concerning.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: He's allowed five home runs, so the long ball has
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: been a big problem for him so far, so he's
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: got to figure some things out, man. So I don't
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: never ready to trust wizen Hunt, although I think he
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: is better than his numbers look so far. He's a
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 1: lefty and sometimes hitters can have difficulty trying to figure
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: out left handed pitchers against the Cubs. The Cubs the
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: Cubs have of course never seen him before, so he
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: does have a little bit of an unfamiliarity edge against
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: the Cubs here. So wizen Hunt might actually pitch okay
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: in this game. As far as the money line, that's
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 1: dropped for minus one twenty eight tons one to twenty
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: six on the Cubs, they got eighty eight percent of
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 1: the tickets and cash on them. They're very public road
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 1: favorite though, so it looks like probably the professional money
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: is saying fad the Cubs here and take San Francisco.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could see the argument for that, because
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 1: Ray has bad in that matchup numbers. If you buy
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 1: into wizen Hunt being unfamiliar to the Cubs, and then
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: you get San Francisco's bullpend behind them, though, of course,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: the Cubs have a way better off fence in the
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: Cubs at least have something to play for. But if
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: you buy into the matchup numbers, it does make sense
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 1: to maybe look towards San Francisco as an underdog on
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: the money line. And the totals actually gotten up from
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: eight to eight and a half, sixty eight percent takes
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: nine percent of the catch on the over. I'm not
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 1: sure that I love that move there. I don't know
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: if I necessarily agree with that, although again I don't
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: know if we trust Ray based on his matchup numbers
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: and his fact the fact that he has too many
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: walks recently. I don't know if we trust Wizard Honte
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: either though, So maybe that's the reasoning for the over,
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: is just that the starting pitchers are just a bit
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: untrustworthy in this one. It's a little bit of a
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: higher total than a lot of times you see in
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: San Francisco because it is a pitcher of Friendly Park,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: and then to finish it off, not a pitcher of
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: friendly Park. Detroit. At the A's, Detroit not playing great
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: right now. The A's have won the first two games
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: of the series Detroit. They need to make sure that
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: they maintain their lead in the Al Central. Here, the
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: A's do have a divisional matchup up next against Texas
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: last night was an extra innings win for them. Does
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 1: that mean they're gonna overlook Detroit? Probably not, But I
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: mean Detroit might take the A's as seriously as possible
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: coming into this game because they've lost both games in
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: the series so far, including the Scoobawl game, So Detroit
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: kind of needs to step it up and play better here.
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: But I don't know that Detroit's gonna be able to
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: avoid the sweep here man, even though the A's they
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: do have a big divisional series up next, so the
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: A's are pretty much out of it. So really a
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: game where the A's will show up might be a
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 1: game at home against a good team like this, although
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: of course this really hit or friendly Triple A ballpark
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: they're playing in is ugly. The A's use a lot
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: of their bullpen yesterday, so their bullpend you want to
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: take them out of the equation unless you're going over
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: because this is a bad bullpen that used a lot
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: of their arms last night, so that's not good. Detroit
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: used fewer theirs, so Detroit their bullpen's in much better
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: rest shape. Detroit as the better bullpen the A's have
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: the better offense out of the two. I mean, I'm
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: pretty sure the A's are fifth actually now in offense.
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: Detroit's down at tenth in ops at least, So that's
• 1:17:56
  Speaker 1: somebody to keep in mind there starting pitching. I almost
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: want to say that the starting pitching edge actually goes
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: to the A's here Detroit is Casey mys pitching. You know,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: I'm not a huge fan of him. I think he's
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: not as good as his numbers look based on his
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: career stats. This season does have pretty good numbers, though,
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: three point six to eighty RA, one point two to
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: seven WHIP. He's a little bit worse on the road
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: three point seven to five year round. This is a
• 1:18:21
  Speaker 1: difficult park to pitch him man the as Stadium here
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: very hit or friendly. Mis has been alright over the
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: last month. I mean, his team has won his last
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: five outings. Four point seventy RA not great this month,
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: but nineteen to four strike a walk ratio is pretty good,
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 1: so his ray actually should probably be a little bit lower.
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: And he's allowed fewer than one hit er inning over
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 1: that span too, so he's actually pitched better than his
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: RA would suggest this month. Although he's faced Minnesota twice
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: Anaheim was the best offense he faced, and then Kansas
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: City three of those games at home, so he's had
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 1: some fairly weak offenses for the most part that he's faced.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: The A's only rooker has ever faced in the MONE
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: He's over four to two strikeouts, so the A's are
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: pretty unfamiliar with Myz. So Mice has a pretty u
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: decent unfamiliarity edge coming into this game at least, but
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: so not sure that I totally trust him. But I'm
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: not really sure I want to completely fade him here either.
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: Uh Luis morale As is gonna be getting to start
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: for the A's. He's a young guy twenty two, so
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: I haven't really handicapped like I haven't like I think
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: I looked at his scouting right before he made his
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: first start, But I don't really know too much about
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: this guy. He's got a one point seven two ERA
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: one point one to five whip, but he doesn't he
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: still doesn't even have his head shot up on ESPN,
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: but his numbers are good so far this year. He's
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 1: been a little bit worse at home two point five
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: to seven ERA, but obviously that's explainable by the fact
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: that this is a ridiculously hitter friendly park. But he's
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: made four appearances. Two of them are only two two
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: plus innings to get kind of you know, to get
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: his feet wet, I guess. But then his last two
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 1: starts he made full fledged starts, and he went five
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: and six innings and each of them and gave up
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: two hour runs combined over that span within eleven to
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratios. Even though he walked five
• 1:20:04
  Speaker 1: guys against Baltimore, his command seemingly has settled down. His
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: last two outings are basically full fledged starts, where he
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: did well in both of them against Anaheim and Seattle.
• 1:20:13
  Speaker 1: Seattle on the road. I know it's a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: so this is a different animal here. But he pitched
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: well in this stadium at home against Anaheim too, so
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: that's a decent sign for Morales. And Detroit has of
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: course never faced him before, so he has an unfamiliarity
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: edge here too, So interesting game. The total, you know,
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 1: is gonna be high because it's at the A Stadium.
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: It's at ten and a half, but under money kind
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: of coming in, you're juicing it to the under fifty
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: seven percent of tickets on the over seventy percent of
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: the cash on the over, but the under I mean
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 1: to me, it makes some sense, although I would not
• 1:20:44
  Speaker 1: want to factor in the bullpens into that. I think
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers with their unfamiliarity edge maybe could keep
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: this thing under in the first five. But I'm not
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: sure that I actually I'm not sure if I trust Mice.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: I think Morales might be the more trustworthy starter here.
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: Detroit's down for minus one twenty five to minus one
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: twenty on the money line. Their road favorite here because
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 1: of course they pretty much have to be because they're Detroit,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent of tickets eighty five percent of the
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: cash coming in on them, but they're very public road
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: favorite here. I think I would lean to first five
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: inning A's just with Morales in there for the early
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 1: part of the game. A's first five money line as
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: the underdog is probably the way that I would lean
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: in that game, man, and then just avoid the a's bullpen,
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 1: because the a's bullpen might might get you there. Let's
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 1: go to the best bets and then I'll get out
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: of here. Man, another long show for me? What can
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: you do? Hopefully these bets get there this time? And
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: first one up. We're going back to the well sort
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: of with a Toronto Blue Jays run line play minus
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: one and a half. You can find it at plus
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: one twenty right now. I mean, you can play the
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: money line, but the money lines up to about minus
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: one fifty something, maybe bigger than that, so it's a
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: little bit more expensive than i'd like to I'd like
• 1:21:51
  Speaker 1: to play there. Sometimes I say find a minus one
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: run line or split the minus one and a half
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 1: half and half between the minus one and a half
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 1: run line and the money line, but it's a little
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: bit pricey to do that here, and the minus one
• 1:22:03
  Speaker 1: and a half is really close to basically just being
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 1: a spread bet. And yes, I know Toronto's at home,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 1: so they won't get the ninth inning to bat if
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: they are already ahead, So I know you worry about
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: that a little bit because they want to have that
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: extra inning to pad their lead here. But Toronto has
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: the better offense. I mean, Minnesota's offense fairly weak, and
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: they did trade Correa away Toronto. I know their bullpen
• 1:22:26
  Speaker 1: usage was bad yesterday, I get it, but three of
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: the relief pitchers the pitch only made single digit pitch
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: counts there, so although they're mostly long relief guys, and
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: hilariously one of them is Louis Varland pitching against his
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 1: former team here in Minnesota, I believe. But Minnesota's bullpen
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 1: isn't very good either, and they used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: so the bullpen situation it's still not really that great
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 1: on either side of the Minnesota I guess it is
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit more rested because of the prior days,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 1: but not by a whole lot. But when you go
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: run line that this a lot of times you have
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: to go full game on it. Anyway, I think Minnesota's
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: bullpen might have to get into the game earlier than
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: Toronto's does. That's part of the whole pier is that
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: we get deeper into the game from Toronto's starting pitcher. Here.
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: You could look to maybe go first five inning Toronto
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: run line here if you really want to. I mean,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: the price might be a little bit better on that. Actually,
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 1: the price than that's probably worse because they have a
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 1: pretty big starting pitching edge year. Minnesota's got Simeon Woods
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: Richardson returning, and he's been either injured or in the
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: minors or both. I'm not sure, but his numbers are
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 1: a lot worse this year than they were in the past.
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: He's still a young guy, but he doesn't really have
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: excellent stuff. I mean, he's he's a decent guy to
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 1: kind of fill out your rotation, but four point two
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: to four ERA and one point four whip. That whip
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: is way too high. He's significantly worse on the road
• 1:23:42
  Speaker 1: five point three RRA on the road, so his road
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: splits are against him here. He pitched in the month
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 1: of July last and throughout that month his ERA was
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: good three point two two, but his strikeout walk issue
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: was terrible. I don't know if you can hear that
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: out there, but people drive by and they red their
• 1:23:57
  Speaker 1: engines so loud. It's un believable, dude, Like, I think
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: people like that, those specific people should be arrested for that. Man,
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 1: Like you're on a civilian street here. I mean, give
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: me a fucking break. It's so ridiculous. Doing it late
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: at night is even more ridiculous. But Woods Richardson had
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 1: a seventeen to thirteen strike a walk ratio of July,
• 1:24:17
  Speaker 1: and he failed to even make it five innings in
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: his last three outings, although granted two of them are
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: against Dodgers, Red Sox, not easy teams to face on
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: the Minnesota won both of those games. But his numbers
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: were bad, man. I mean, his walk rate was way
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: too high over that span. So again he puts way
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: too many guys on base, so I don't find him
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: to be very trustworthy. And his numbers against Toronto raffel.
• 1:24:38
  Speaker 1: I know it's a small twenty five at bat sample size.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: They got a couple homers off him, Schneider and Pashett
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: four hundred batting average, one thousand and one sixty ops
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: although three strikeouts and no walk so somehow he hasn't
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: walked any of them. But their numbers are good. They
• 1:24:53
  Speaker 1: hit him hard. So I don't think Woods Richardson is
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: gonna give us much here, and that I know he's
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: a guy who might be pumped to come back from injury.
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: But Toronto, I think Toronto's gonna be motivated for a
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: couple of reasons. They want to maintain their lead in
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: the AL Ease, which is slipping. They lost embarrassingly to
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: this Minnesota team yesterday. Minute Toronto had the lead. Like
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 1: I said, I thought that it was a better at
• 1:25:13
  Speaker 1: first five inning play on. I'm looking at the wrong
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: Uh wait, I'm looking at the wrong game. It was
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 1: seven to five yesterday. Yeah, so Toronto won the first
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 1: game of the series. But yesterday, I mean I thought
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: the first five inning was the way to look for Minnesota,
• 1:25:29
  Speaker 1: but Toronto had the lead after the first five and
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: then their bullpend completely blew it, even though Toronto o
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: wout hit Minnesota fourteen to nine. So Toronto was better
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 1: in the game, and they gave up four runs in
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: the ninth inning and that's the reason why they lost.
• 1:25:40
  Speaker 1: They had the lead all game, including it to the
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 1: ninth inning and then blew it. So very misleading result
• 1:25:46
  Speaker 1: there too, and I think Toronto's gonna be a little
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: bit pissed off of that. So I think it's a
• 1:25:49
  Speaker 1: little bit of a motivational edge for Toronto off of
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 1: that too. And of course Toronto has the better starter
• 1:25:55
  Speaker 1: on the Mount who might be their best starter, Eric Lauer,
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 1: having a really good season for them two point seven
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 1: to six ERA one point away whim And you know me,
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 1: I've played some Toronto run lines, at least one recently
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: with lower on the Mount and it was an easy winner.
• 1:26:08
  Speaker 1: So let's hope that that happens again. He has a
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: two point four or five ERA at home, so that's
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: good as well. I think the one that I did
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: play which was the easy winner was it was last
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: time out actually against Texas, so that was at home
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: as well, and we got there easily, so hopefully that
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: happens again. Lower is a three point two one ERA
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: this month. I am a little bit worried about the walks,
• 1:26:27
  Speaker 1: though not gonna lie twelve to eight strike a walk
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 1: issue this month. That's a bit concerning. Although the worst
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: game that he had was against the Dodgers on the road,
• 1:26:36
  Speaker 1: and this is certainly not that this is a much
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: weaker line up here. He's back at home, so I
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 1: think that Dodger outing that wasn't very good was a
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: little bit of a blip and they still won that game. Hilariously.
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: The Blue Jays have won five of his last six starts,
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 1: and the start they didn't win was actually still a
• 1:26:50
  Speaker 1: pretty good start against Baltimore. And before his last start
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 1: he had four straight roads starts as well, so again
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 1: he's trying to come back into form here. Yes, again
• 1:27:00
  Speaker 1: worried about the walks in the recent couple of starts,
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 1: but I still think he's pitching well overall, and his
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: numbers are good against the Twins, although it's like thirteen
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: at bats so they're pretty unfamiliar with them. But three
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 1: to two strike a walk ratio both Walks or Buckston.
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: But I mean, if you can pitch around Buckston, the
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 1: rest of this lineup is not that threatening. He's held
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 1: them to a two thirty one batting average and six
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: to forty one oh ps, So I think Lauer has
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: a pretty significant match up edge here. In my opinion,
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 1: he's the better pitcher. Again, it is a public side here,
• 1:27:28
  Speaker 1: but we'll go with it. In this one, we got
• 1:27:30
  Speaker 1: eighty four percent. It takes ninety five percent of the
• 1:27:32
  Speaker 1: cash on Toronto, with the money line sitting at minus
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: one to eighty, it seems to be the way we're
• 1:27:36
  Speaker 1: going in this one. The total is high as well,
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: nine with money coming in on the over as well.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: So I think that indicates that the oddsmakers are thinking
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: that Woods Richardson might not pitch well here, and if
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: it's maybe neither pitcher will, but I think more likely
• 1:27:50
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be the worst of the two pitchers not
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: pitching well. And if it's a higher scoring game, that
• 1:27:54
  Speaker 1: makes it easier to cover a run line like this,
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: So let's go with it Toronto run line. And then
• 1:28:00
  Speaker 1: finally we're gonna go with the Mets. But the Mets
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 1: are up to about minus one fifty here, so Toronto's
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 1: up to minus one eighty. So my mistake on that
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: one when I thought it was around minus one fifty
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: and minus one eighty this game, we will do a
• 1:28:12
  Speaker 1: split better. If you want to do a minus one
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 1: run line, that's fine as well with the Mets. If
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 1: you want to go with the money line and pay
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 1: more for it, you could do that too, But minus
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 1: one fifty. I tend to not go that high on
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 1: the money line. So I'm gonna say we're gonna split
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: the bet. Basically, make your own minus one run line,
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 1: because if they win by one, you'll still at least
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: win a slight amount on this, whereas if you win
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 1: the minus one run line bet, it will actually push
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 1: if they win by one. I mean it'll push your
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 1: bet the Mets minus one and a half. You get
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: it at plus one forty around there right now, along
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: with the minus one fifty run line. So I split
• 1:28:44
  Speaker 1: the bet to win the same amount on both halves
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: of the bet. I think the Mets have a big
• 1:28:49
  Speaker 1: advantage here, man. Yes, I know the Phillies are gonna
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: want to try to fix this thing, right, because the
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 1: Phillies are letting the Mets clow their way back here.
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: But the Mets have huge motivation in this series, man,
• 1:29:00
  Speaker 1: because Philly at least has padding in the division still,
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 1: even though they don't want the Mets to catch up
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: to them. But the Mets they're hosts in the Phillies.
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 1: He man, The Phillies have had the edge stints early
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: in the season when the Mets were on top of
• 1:29:12
  Speaker 1: the division. The Mets are still better than the record looks.
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 1: They had a really bad slide for a while, but
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: they're playing better baseball again, recently winning four of the
• 1:29:19
  Speaker 1: last five games. Yes, Philly is gonna want to try
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 1: to avoid a sweep peer. I don't know if this
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 1: is a four or three game series. Here, it's a
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: three game series, so yes, Philly will come out and
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: try to avoid a sweet Peer. But there's no way
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 1: the Mets overlooked this. And the Mets have more motivation
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 1: because the Reds are close behind them, so the Mets
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 1: need to make sure that they're staying ahead in the
• 1:29:39
  Speaker 1: Wildcard race too, because right now they're in the last
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 1: wildcard spot. Believe it or not as well as they
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: started the season, but the Mets again are They're not
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: as good as they looked at the beginning of the season,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 1: but they're not as bad as they looked over the
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 1: past month or so. So the Mets, they could definitely
• 1:29:52
  Speaker 1: do this. And this is all about the pitching matchup. Man,
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 1: I think this is a bad pitching matchup for Philadelphia here.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has the worst of the two bullpends too, and yes,
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia has the better offense, but the Mets can hit
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: as well. Philadelphia used all but one of their relief
• 1:30:06
  Speaker 1: pitchers right now, basically just David Robertson, who I don't
• 1:30:09
  Speaker 1: even know. He might be a long relief man because
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: Romano's on the injured list here. So this Philly bullpen
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: that's already not that good, is very overworked right now.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: Mets did use four relievers as well yesterday, actually five,
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 1: but the Mets have a few guys they didn't use yesterday.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 1: So the Mets their bullpend resting here is a little
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 1: bit better, and they do have the better bullpend in general,
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: so I think it was an extra inning game yesterday.
• 1:30:30
  Speaker 1: I know, I guess it wasn't It looked like it
• 1:30:32
  Speaker 1: was an extra innings game. I hate this new font
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: from ESPN, by the way, But anyway, Yeah, the Mets won,
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 1: and again it was a huge win for the Mets.
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 1: So yeah, you'd think maybe they'll be in a letdown
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 1: spot after that because they won in dramatic fashion on
• 1:30:44
  Speaker 1: the walk off, but they were winning most of the
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 1: game and then they blew the lead late and then
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 1: we're able to hang off for the wins. So I
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 1: think in this case, again, the Mets are obviously going
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: to be completely motivated here still, so I don't think
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 1: it'll be a letdown spot. And the starting pitching matchup,
• 1:30:57
  Speaker 1: to me, I think it's very in favor of the Mets.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: Taiwan Walker pitching for the Phillies. He's not that good man.
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's not a guy that gives you a
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 1: lot of innings at this point in his career, a
• 1:31:07
  Speaker 1: three point four to four ERA, one point two eight whip.
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 1: I know his numbers are are right. He is better
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: on the road two point six three eras were fading
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 1: that aspect of this, but this month, even though he
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 1: is a two point two eighty RA. He's faced Baltimore
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: Washington twice and it seemed lost both those games. And
• 1:31:24
  Speaker 1: he faced Cincinnati, yeah, on the road, so he did
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: well in that start. That's impressive. He hasn't allowed more
• 1:31:28
  Speaker 1: of the three and runs in any of these starts,
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 1: but he's got a fourteen to six strike a walk ratio,
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 1: so his walk rate is too high. Walker does occasionally
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 1: live up to his name, so I wouldn't say he's
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 1: in the greatest form here, and the Mets are a
• 1:31:40
  Speaker 1: step up offensively from the last like four or five
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: opponents that he faced. Basically the last time he faced
• 1:31:46
  Speaker 1: a lineup anywhere near as good as this, he struggled
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 1: a bit against the Yankees, even he got a ton
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 1: of run support behind him, and they still won the game.
• 1:31:53
  Speaker 1: But I just don't think you could trust Walker here.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: His numbers against the Mets are mediocre, but a lot
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: of this handicap has to do with the fact that
• 1:31:59
  Speaker 1: the Mets are very familiar with Walker. They've faced him
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: a lot one hundred and thirty one at bats. They
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: have twenty two strike us in fifteen walks against him
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: in seven home runs, and three of them are Alonzo
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: two for Nimo, So they've hit him for power. Man,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: that's the thing. They haven't hit him for average. Two
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: forty four batting average is low, but all the other
• 1:32:18
  Speaker 1: offensive stats they have off a Walker are good. Like
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 1: it's way too many walks. Again, Walker is a walker,
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: and seven to seventy seven ops is actually considerably high
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: considering that the batting average is so low. So Walker
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: gets hit for power by the Mets. So that's not good.
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: And the Mets have our guy, Nolan McLain, Bye bye
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: Miss American Pie Don McClain. Nolan McClain, the youngster for
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: the Mets here who has good scouting reports on him.
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: He was a highly touted draft pick. He's a highly
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: touted prospect here. He's entered the rotation and he might
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: be there to stay man for this stretch run because
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: he's been good so far. One point four to sixty
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: ira point eight one whip. He has a z the
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: euro Eer at home so far. One home start was
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 1: a shutout against Seattle. He had some nerves in that game,
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: but I gave out I believe I gave out an
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: under in that game. If I'm not mistaken, it was
• 1:33:09
  Speaker 1: the first five under. I think for me in that
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: one and it got there. The full game did as well,
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: even though McClain walk for guys. I think some of
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 1: that was due to nerves. He was nervous maybe a bit.
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 1: First start at home, walked some guys, but he only
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: allowed two hits. He didn't even allow a run, went
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 1: five and a third innings. He's already going ninety pitches
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 1: and each started so far, so that's good as well.
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 1: He came out and he went seven innings in his
• 1:33:31
  Speaker 1: next start on the road against the Braves, held them
• 1:33:33
  Speaker 1: to two earn runs, seven strikeouts, no walk, so his
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: command became much better in that next start. His strikeout
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 1: rate is really good so far. He's allowed only six
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 1: hits in twelve and a third innings so far, only
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: two runs fifteen to four strikeout walk ratio, so his
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 1: numbers are looking pretty good so far early on in
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: his career man, and he's also thriving on the fact
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 1: that he's unfamiliar. So even though he's facing a good
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 1: pilly line up here, Wich will be the best offense
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 1: that he's faced so far, so he's got to step
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 1: it up. He's been good so far, he's shown that
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: he could do this at the major league level, and
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: the Phillies have never seen him before, so he has
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an extra built in advantage there
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: because the Phillies might struggle to try to figure him
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: out early. Man. So Nolan McLain, we're gonna go with
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: the Mets here, and the public seems to not really
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 1: agree with that and think there's no way Philly can
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 1: get swept here. Man. Philly is the better team. They
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 1: got the better record, they got this good offense. Everybody
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 1: likes Philly now. I was shocked that Philly didn't win
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 1: the Christopher Sanchez game. I'm pretty sure it was the
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: first game of the series that shocked me. Yesterday, they
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: had Lozarto on the mountain. I thought they were gonna
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: have the lead after five because of that, and they
• 1:34:37
  Speaker 1: had the lead into the fifth inning, but Lozaro loaded
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: the bases and then he got thrown out of the
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: game for argument with the home played umpire. Lozardo is
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: just losing his mind, man, But the fact that he
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: loaded the basses, even if he stayed in the game,
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 1: he was probably gonna give up that lead. So I'm
• 1:34:52
  Speaker 1: not too mad about predicting the first five Inna Philly,
• 1:34:58
  Speaker 1: Philly covering the Philly money line, I mean was my
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 1: lean in the first five innings yesterday, and that probably
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 1: was gonna lose anyway because he loaded the bases. But
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 1: still Philly they got some mental issues right now. I
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: think that happening to Lozardo yesterday. So I think the
• 1:35:12
  Speaker 1: mental state actually may not be that great for Philly
• 1:35:15
  Speaker 1: right now. The Mets, it seems like it's actually pretty
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: good on their side, so I think it might continue
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 1: for the Mets here for that momentum. We got fifty
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 1: six percent of tickets, seventy nine percent of the cash
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: coming on the Mets. The Mets are getting the money
• 1:35:27
  Speaker 1: here as well, so we're gonna go with the Mets.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: Like I said, seventy one percent of tickets, ninety one
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming on the overach is sitting
• 1:35:33
  Speaker 1: at eight and a half. I mean, I suppose the
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 1: argument for that would be include the bullpens, because the
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 1: bullpens are kind of overworked, and Phillies isn't that good.
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 1: Walker is that good. So basically everything except for McClain
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: kind of leads you to believe that the game is
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: gonna be a bit high scoring as well, so I
• 1:35:48
  Speaker 1: could see that argument, but I think the Mets side
• 1:35:51
  Speaker 1: is the way to go in that one, and that's
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Man. The two plays today trying to
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 1: be selective Toronto run line and Mets split bet House
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 1: on the run line half on the money line. There, Sorry,
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Learn it Toad on Twitter, learn
• 1:36:04
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• 1:36:07
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• 1:36:10
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• 1:36:13
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• 1:36:18
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• 1:36:20
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• 1:36:22
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• 1:36:26
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• 1:36:28
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• 1:36:31
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• 1:36:34
  Speaker 1: you just want to throw me some support that I
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 1: love that as well. And you know, the money that
• 1:36:38
  Speaker 1: I make from that will help me either survive or
• 1:36:41
  Speaker 1: put it back into the show or whatever. I got
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: to figure out what I'm doing right now how to survive.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: But that's gonna do it. Thanks to everybody for hanging out.
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 1: I appreciate it, or whoever was hanging out. Not too
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: many people, but thanks everyone, and peace for now.