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Episode 429 - 1/9/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome. To episode 429 of the All
• 0:18
  Systems Go Sports Betting podcast.
• 0:21
  Powered by rhythm, I'm your. Host Josh.
• 0:24
  Applebaum What's going on, everyone?
• 0:30
  Happy Friday our. Work week has come to an end and
• 0:34
  we're about to kick off the. NFL.
• 0:36
  Playoffs. That's right, An epic.
• 0:38
  Stretch of games, we're right in the middle of it.
• 0:40
  We do have, of course, a. Huge cause wall playoff final.
• 0:43
  Four-game tonight. Oregon, Indiana.
• 0:45
  That thing is sharp as a tack man.
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  We got to talk about this one. That'll be my official bet here
• 0:50
  for. Tonight you might know where I'm
• 0:52
  going already on this one, because.
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  We've talked about this game quite a bit, but there's
• 0:55
  further. Movement in the direction that.
• 0:57
  We are happy about South. Full breakdown on that one, but
• 1:00
  of. Course the NFL.
• 1:01
  Postseason one of my favorite. Times of the year.
• 1:04
  Epic weekend coming. Up we got two games.
• 1:06
  Tomorrow we got three games. On Sunday, we got a Monday night
• 1:08
  game, Houston and Pittsburgh. So because it's a Friday,
• 1:11
  because we're finishing up our work week and we're getting
• 1:14
  ready for a huge NFL postseason weekend, I'll give you my.
• 1:17
  Final card best bet on. Every single one of these games.
• 1:20
  So some of these are games or a lot of them are games we
• 1:23
  already. Talked about, but some numbers
• 1:25
  are moving, some rhythm and. Juice Reel System matches and.
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  Sharp Bush edges and AI model predictions are also adjusting
• 1:33
  here as well. So give the updated.
• 1:35
  Numbers in the stats and all the.
• 1:36
  Plays your upcoming for this weekend.
• 1:39
  And then of course, we're going to we're going to remind you all
• 1:42
  that we have an awesome NFL Survivor contest.
• 1:46
  Which it's it's getting. The trains leaving the station.
• 1:48
  Guys, you've heard me say it. Before, but it is officially.
• 1:51
  Quote UN Quote the Applebaum. NFL playoff survivor with Splash
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  Sports. We're up to 60.
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  One entries. So you guys have been?
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  Filing in so I. Appreciate you. 25 bucks an
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  entry. You can do up to 7 entries and
• 2:03
  the winner if they can If they can survive.
• 2:06
  What's that old Akon song? Akon Song.
• 2:09
  Soul Survivor. I was thinking about that.
• 2:11
  When I think of Survivor also, there's a great Curb Your
• 2:13
  Enthusiasm. Where a Holocaust?
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  Survivor gets into an argument at the dinner table with a.
• 2:18
  Contestant on the show the. Survivor, one of the all time
• 2:21
  favorite Curb. Scenes of all time.
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  But anyway, you still have. A day to jump into this thing so
• 2:27
  25 bucks could win you 5 grand. And I hope the.
• 2:29
  Winner comes from someone listening right now, like my guy
• 2:32
  Manny. Davidson, who took.
• 2:34
  Took home the first Survivor contest, but as always guys, you
• 2:37
  can easily sign up just by going to my Twitter page at Josh under
• 2:41
  score Insights and the pinned tweet at the very top of my
• 2:44
  page. It'll have a.
• 2:45
  Tweet there about the survivor. Contest so you get right in,
• 2:49
  come on down, throw, throw your. Hat in the ring.
• 2:51
  Hope you win again. Feel free to.
• 2:54
  You know, spread this link far and wide.
• 2:55
  More people that enter, the bigger the pot for whoever can.
• 2:58
  Take home the win, so. Last call for the NFL.
• 3:02
  Playoff. Survivor contest with Splash
• 3:04
  Sports now before we get to of course.
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  Oregon and Indiana for tonight and then going through.
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  All of the NFL games upcoming this weekend we got to talk
• 3:13
  about last night, guys. I'll look at it one of two ways
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  on the one hand. That Ole Miss.
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  Miami game was one of the best, most intense back and forth
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  games I've seen in a while. Just from a standpoint of.
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  Being a fan, what an awesome, awesome back and forth game
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  competition. I mean, it was incredible.
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  Sadly, we came up. Just short because we got.
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  Ole Miss plus 3 1/2 and they lost by 4.
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  And they gave it up at the. Very end with Carson Beck.
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  Everyone was covered, but he walked.
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  Right into the end zone to to crush us in that one.
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  And believe it or not, there's only like what, 18 seconds left?
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  And Chambliss, who I just saw today that the NCAA denied his
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  sixth year of eligibility when I didn't realize that, Mister
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  Carson. Beck, who beat us last.
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  Night. He's in his seventh.
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  Year of college, so. Explain that one to me.
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  But anyway, 18 seconds left they made.
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  It interesting and there's also. You know, I don't think you can,
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  you know, bank on a pass interference.
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  Call when you throw a. Hail Mary pass here but.
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  Hey, it looked like maybe he was held, but maybe that's me just
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  being annoyed that. We had a + 3 1/2 and lost by 4.
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  But what's really annoying is that Ole.
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  Miss in the fourth quarter, they were up. 2019 they were up 27 to
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  20. Four.
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  And I was actually D Ming, one of my one of my friends, my wise
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  guys on Twitter. And he said, don't we?
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  Wish that they missed that two point conversion.
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  I'm like, Yep, we do because. The fact that Ole Miss.
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  Made a two point. Conversion to make it 2724.
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  We hope that they didn't. Make it so it'll be 2520.
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  Four and then you know all Miami.
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  Would have to do is go down the other way and kick a field goal.
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  Now, there were some missed kicks, so who knows what that
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  happens there, but the fact that they did make that and make it a
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  three-point game, then it's like.
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  OK, go for. The win instead of the tide.
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  So it's kind of weird how you're like, oh, nice two point.
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  Conversion. What a huge conversion.
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  It's like, oh, actually we I kind of hope that he didn't.
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  Make it that way. Maybe they would have been.
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  It would have been a walk off field.
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  Goal the other way and we would have covered the 3 1/2 so either
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  way. Guys, just a great.
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  Game that came up just short, so we'll see if we can get it.
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  Back here tonight with Oregon. And Indiana now without further.
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  ADO. Let's talk about this matchup
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  because this is one of those games that you know, if you
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  believe in data-driven sharp contrain betting, this one gets
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  you. Very, very excited.
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  So let's set the stage. Talk betting splits, talk system
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  matches, talk sharp mush and juice, real edges as well as
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  rhythm. And I'll give you my play here
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  for this one. So.
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  Of course, this is the. Second-half of the Final four
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  we've already had. Miami punch their ticket.
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  To the Championship. Game This game tonight is 7:30
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  PM Eastern Time and it is the. Couchwall playoff semi final at
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  the Chick-fil-A. Peach Bowl.
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  It'll be played at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in
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  Atlanta, GA, home of the Falcons.
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  Winner plays Miami in the championship.
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  That's on Monday the 19th, and that'll be at Hard Rock Stadium
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  in Miami, FL, which technically is a home.
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  Game. De facto home game there for EU
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  anyway. Little background on these
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  teams. Oregon comes in 13.
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  And one, they are the five seed. They just shut out Texas Tech 23
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  to nothing in the quarterfinals. Technically they did close.
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  As a 1 1/2 point. Neutral site dog.
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  So that was a dog. That did bark.
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  In the in the last round. Meanwhile, Indiana 14 and O
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  number one seed just dominated Bama 38 to 3 in the
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  quarterfinals, easily covered as A7.
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  And a half point. Neutral site favorite.
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  Now what are we seeing across the board?
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  Well, this thing's been all over the place.
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  It opens with Indiana listed as a four point neutral site
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  favorite and early in the week. We saw that -4 get up to -4 1/2
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  and at the time. I'm saying, OK, we have a #1A
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  very, very contrarian spot because.
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  Big issue for me and big you know.
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  Part of the cap why I'm on. Oregon, which you heard me talk
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  about before. Is that right off the bat?
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  I notice how contrarian Oregon was right now the updated
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  numbers. 74. Percent of spread bets at DK are
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  going with Indiana Indiana's undefeated number one seed
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  Mendoza on the Heisman Signetti. You know is the new, you know
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  the. New Belichick, the new Lombardi,
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  I guess. So all this love for Indiana?
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  Automatically, you know, it's been lopsided from beginning to
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  end, really. So I'm thinking, OK,
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  championship game, regardless of the line movement, I want to
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  take the points. I want to be on the 26% side as
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  a contrarian, not the 74% herd mentality.
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  Every drunk guy at the bar in America.
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  Going with the Hoosiers. So when I got to 4 1/2, I'm
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  like. OK, this looks to be.
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  The best number? So I did jump on Oregon at +4
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  and 1/2 at -112. Well, this line is now down to 3
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  1/2. And not only is it down to 3
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  1/2. But if you guys paid attention
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  to the movement on game day, always respect game day movement
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  and you know, it was kind of frustrating.
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  Too, because we talked. About it on the Rhythm Rundown
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  last. Night thank you all for.
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  Tuning in but there was mentioned on the pod yesterday,
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  but there was that late steam on the over yesterday.
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  You know we saw that over for Miami and Ole Miss go from 51
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  1/2 up to 52 1/2 and even closed as high as 5353 1/2.
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  So that game day movement was ticking up and it ended up going
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  over. In this case, all this game day
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  movement is. Further toward the ducks, Ducks
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  are down to 3 1/2. Not only are they down to 3 1/2,
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  but all the three. And a halfs are juiced toward
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  the ducks plus. 3 1/2 minus. 115 -, 120 and I'm now seeing two
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  books. Get down to three DraftKings and
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  the score. So again, open -4.
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  Indy got up to minus. 4 1/2 Now it's down to. 3 1/2 and it's
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  getting down to three, so huge, huge movement back toward Oregon
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  and. Why is that movement so
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  important one? Game day movement important
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  because. Limits are raised, biggest bets
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  come in, but secondly. It is moving in the direction of
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  the contrarian side. So if everyone and their mother
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  is on. Mendoza and the Hoosiers.
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  Why does line keep? Falling toward Oregon, you know,
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  if the public. 'S Hammering, Indiana at -4 -, 4
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  1/2. Why are the odds makers now
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  saying? Oh, here come, come only get -3
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  and half now hey get a three. Why are they handing out an?
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  Even better price to the public when the public's on Indiana
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  regardless tells me you have a classic reverse line move play.
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  RLM is when the betting. Line goes.
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  Away from the popular side. Indiana toward the unpopular
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  side. Oregon so super contrarian play
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  in a heavily bet prime time game.
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  Sharp reverse line movement. Ducks are a dog who?
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  Can score system match averaging 36.4 points per game.
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  So keep pace or back to our cover.
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  Oregon also is a conference dog. You know Oregon was in the PAC
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  12. Forever, but I think it's in
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  there now, their third year in the Big 10, so.
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  Technically, that would be a. Conference dog built in
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  familiarity levels the playing field rivalry.
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  Aspect. Benefits the team getting
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  points. Also Oregon.
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  May be a motivational edge here because if you guys remember,
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  it's a revenge game Oregon played Indiana at.
• 9:50
  Home. Back in early October, I think
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  it was week five, week 6, they were a 7 point favorite.
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  They lost outright, 30 to 20. So as if.
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  Oregon and Dan Laning. Needed more motivation.
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  You could of course tell your team, hey, we're a dog, no one
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  believes in us. But then also.
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  You got revenge against a team that beat you in your own
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  building, so maybe that's another added.
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  Piece of motivation, even though we had.
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  Ole Miss failed. To cover for us last night, I
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  still can't get over that 3 1/2 and you lose by 4.
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  But we have dogs in the postseason.
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  In the playoff, six and three against the spread.
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  Five and four straight up make matters even more exciting.
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  Let's go to rhythm. Rhythm has.
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  Two recommended models on Oregon. 1 is actually Oregon
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  -1.3. Another one is Oregon -0.4.
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  So if you can still get that 3 1/2 which you.
• 10:38
  Should be able to do, although again a lot of books are getting
• 10:41
  down to three. I love the.
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  Fact that it keeps. Going back toward the contrarian
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  Oregon side, that tells me you have a very, very sharp game day
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  move continuing in our direction.
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  But rhythms got Oregon favored to win this game.
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  So if you haven't gotten the four and a half.
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  Again, you got to get that 3 1/2.
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  Which you should be able to get. But then also I popped.
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  Open Juice Reel 2. Things I like about this. 113%
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  sharp mush edge. On Oregon from Juice reel so.
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  Majority of the sharper winning. Players also going with Oregon.
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  Who have synced up their. Books and and downloaded the
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  app, but also one of the two robo.
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  Jackson best bet picks today is Oregon in the points so add it
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  all up here guys. I've loved this from.
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  The start Anytime you give me a super unpopular team with a line
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  move in a playoff heavily bet game, that's an auto bet for me.
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  So hopefully you guys. Listening jumped on the 4 1/2
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  with me. If you sign up to get the all
• 11:36
  systems go best bet picks. I did put it in the four and a
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  half a while ago, but I'm loving the fact it's down to 3 1/2 or
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  even 3 and we're in an epic, epic bet against the public.
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  Spot here tonight. So go docs 4 1/2 again.
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  Now 3 1/2. But at least get the 3 1/2.
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  Because some books are getting down to. 3.
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  I would mention there was that late steam toward the over
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  yesterday. There's steam toward the over.
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  Here today guys that. Opened 40. 6 1/2.
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  When I wrote the Sharp report for visa.com was 48 1/2.
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  I'm seeing some 40 nines right? Now you do have. 67% bets, 72%
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  dollars at DK on the over. At Circa it's almost 80% of bets
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  in dollars on the over and we are an indoors.
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  Game, you know. Inside a Dome.
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  So fast track here so. If you like the over.
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  You are getting game day movement.
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  Toward a higher scoring game, but man.
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  I cannot wait to sweat the Ducks tonight.
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  Ducks fly together flying V. Let's go Oregon now.
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  Let's take a. Look toward the weekend.
• 12:30
  Because we have an epic weekend of football and you know.
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  What I told the wife. I was like, hey.
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  It's she's like, what are you up to this weekend?
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  I'm like, well. It's the playoffs, and I did.
• 12:38
  Want to see Marty Supreme? It's the new Timothy Chalamet
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  movie where he's the. Ping pong player.
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  So I was like, hey babe, you know, would you do?
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  Like a matinee, Like a 1:00. You know, not knowing.
• 12:49
  Or not telling her that hey, at the whole point is I want to be
• 12:51
  able to see LA Rams. Carolina at 4:30 and she's like,
• 12:54
  oh, I'd love to. And I was like can.
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  We get lunch too, and she's like, yeah, I'd.
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  Love to so we'll be. Watching Marty Supreme in the
• 12:59
  movie theater. Getting lunch and then.
• 13:01
  All football rest of the night for me, so I'm very much
• 13:03
  looking. Forward to that, but anyway.
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  Let's talk about all these games, aforementioned Rams,
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  Carolina. I'm taking the.
• 13:10
  Points here guys with the Carolina Panthers.
• 13:12
  Couple things here number one. There's kind of a battle.
• 13:15
  Here, between the 10 1/2 and the 10 open basically -10 Rams.
• 13:20
  You're up to 10 1/2 at most shops.
• 13:21
  But a lot of these shops are juicing up the Carolina side.
• 13:25
  Plus 10 1/2 minus. 115 you're also in a spot.
• 13:29
  Where Bryce Young has covered a lot.
• 13:31
  Of these numbers, Bryce Young in his career when he's a home dog.
• 13:34
  I believe he is. I had it the other day I think.
• 13:36
  He's 13 and 6. ATS or 12:00 and 7:00 ATS,
• 13:40
  something like that. But he's been really good
• 13:42
  covering numbers at home as a dog.
• 13:44
  You look at circa only 40. 3% of spread bets.
• 13:48
  But 90? Percent of spread dollars.
• 13:50
  Are on Carolina. Carolina would match as a.
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  Wild card dog. 64% against the spread since 2017.
• 13:57
  A playoff. Dog 61.
• 13:59
  Percent ATS since 2017, but here's a really good system.
• 14:02
  A wild card dog missed the postseason the previous year.
• 14:05
  Buying law on these teams has been smart bet historically.
• 14:08
  That's a 70% against the spread system.
• 14:11
  Also, it's a bit of a. I'm not going to call it a low
• 14:14
  total, it's like 40. Five and a half 46.
• 14:16
  But you are double. Digit Dog.
• 14:18
  Getting 10 1/2 here with the. Hook Hook is.
• 14:20
  Important you should. Be able to get it is available.
• 14:22
  Pretty much everywhere but. It's a little bit of relative
• 14:26
  dog, low total or dog. Medium total.
• 14:29
  So harder for the big favorite to cover there.
• 14:31
  And then lastly, rhythm. Rhythm is saying we should take
• 14:34
  Carolina three models. Here we have Carolina Plus. 6.9
• 14:39
  Carolina plus 3.5. Carolina plus 6.4.
• 14:43
  And our friends at Juice. Field also have a 7.
• 14:45
  Percent sharp mush edge on Carolina.
• 14:48
  So again, a lot of. People are saying Carolina
• 14:50
  doesn't deserve to be here. Rams are going to blow them out.
• 14:53
  I'm going to lean on these dog system matches.
• 14:55
  Here guys, I took Carolina Plus. 10 1/2.
• 14:58
  Late game Green Bay and. Chicago.
• 15:01
  Now this line has moved toward Green Bay.
• 15:03
  Lot of books. For pick them.
• 15:04
  Or Green Bay -1 now you're up. To Green Bay around minus. 1
• 15:08
  1/2. But I'm going to take the 1 1/2
• 15:10
  with. Chicago Bears here.
• 15:11
  On the one hand. You do have a good split.
• 15:14
  At Circa 72% bets 80% dollars on Chicago.
• 15:18
  So you might say, oh, that's public, but remember Circa is
• 15:21
  caters more to wise guys, sharps out in Vegas.
• 15:24
  But aside from the split. There at.
• 15:27
  At Circa you have Chicago as a divisional dog, so again, built
• 15:31
  in familiarity. Levels the playing field.
• 15:33
  Benefits the team getting points.
• 15:35
  We also have Chicago. Playing well at home.
• 15:38
  Six and two, Green Bay 4. Four and one on the road.
• 15:41
  I have three models on. The bears lighting up here from
• 15:44
  Rhythm. Rhythm says they should be.
• 15:46
  Plus 0.1. I have another model -0.3.
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  I have another model -0.7. So all.
• 15:55
  Three of my models. Are saying to take the bears.
• 15:58
  Bears would also be a. System match of a dog who missed
• 16:02
  the postseason the previous year.
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  Which would be that same system that is lighting up here in
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  favor of. Carolina.
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  Also a prime time. Dog.
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  So prime time dog. Could be also a weather.
• 16:14
  Type game because I am looking at a lot of wind could be cold,
• 16:18
  you could. Get some snow wild.
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  Card weekend unders are 60. Percent.
• 16:21
  Historically we have seen that total drop.
• 16:24
  I think it was like 4645. Now it's 44 1/2.
• 16:28
  And another. Really good system lighting up
• 16:30
  on the bears is that? Short Playoff Dog +3 or.
• 16:33
  Less that system is 26 and 10 against the spread 72% with a
• 16:38
  40% ROI since 2017. Lastly, our friends at Juice
• 16:43
  Reel 3% sharp mush Edge. So rhythm is saying.
• 16:46
  It should be a pick em game or even bears slightly favored.
• 16:50
  Dogs have barked this round. So I'm taking the dog bears.
• 16:52
  Plus 1 1/2 next one for you I think.
• 16:55
  If you like. The the Bears.
• 16:57
  You like the Jags? Give me the.
• 16:58
  Jags here guys. This is your Sunday one O clock
• 17:01
  game. Very similar.
• 17:03
  Where we were basically a pick em.
• 17:05
  Or a -1 Buffalo, it got to Buffalo -1 1/2.
• 17:09
  But I'm seeing these one and a halfs now.
• 17:10
  Get back down guys. If you look at the.
• 17:12
  Updated numbers across the. Board as we get closer and
• 17:15
  closer to. Kick off, you're now seeing.
• 17:17
  Some books creep down to. Jags plus one.
• 17:21
  I'm seeing one. Book, that is.
• 17:22
  Basically a pick em so. It might be your last chance to
• 17:25
  get that plus 1 1/2. I'm see still seeing.
• 17:27
  Plus one and a. Half at DraftKings and FanDuel.
• 17:31
  Around -120. I'm actually seeing the score.
• 17:33
  I'm in Massachusetts. The score.
• 17:35
  Is now -1. And a half Jacksonville.
• 17:38
  So that 1 1/2. With Jacksonville looks to be
• 17:39
  your best price here, but a few things to like about the Jags
• 17:43
  dog who can score system match averaging 28 points per game.
• 17:46
  They've been really good at home.
• 17:47
  Seven and two, Josh. Allen AS.
• 17:49
  Great as he is. I might ruin my.
• 17:52
  Words here because he's awesome, but he's had a bit.
• 17:54
  Of a foot issue. Let's see how.
• 17:56
  How good? He can be and how?
• 17:57
  Effective he can be. You also have a.
• 18:00
  Let's see. Short playoff dog three or less
• 18:03
  playoff dog wild card dog wild card dog miss playoffs previous.
• 18:06
  Season all these systems are lighting up with Jacksonville.
• 18:09
  Also the Jags rhythm has them favored -0.2 minus. 1.7 and oh
• 18:15
  by the way. An 8% sharp mush edge on the
• 18:18
  Jags from our friends at Juice Rail.
• 18:19
  So I did take the plus 1 1/2 with.
• 18:21
  Jacksonville feeling good about. A lot of these bets we've made,
• 18:25
  but. I'm a little worried about.
• 18:26
  This one San Fran and Philly. This one opened up Philly. -3
• 18:31
  1/2. Got up to Philly -4 1/2.
• 18:33
  I'm thinking. OK, this thing might start to
• 18:35
  come back down. But that didn't happen.
• 18:37
  It's gotten now up to -5 1/2 with Philly so.
• 18:41
  I am in a bad. Spot here I got. +4.
• 18:44
  And 1/2 with San Fran. If you're like me and you got a
• 18:47
  bad San Fran, it's up to you what you want to do.
• 18:49
  You're the final arbiter of your bankroll.
• 18:51
  But I'm one of those dance with. The one who brung you better.
• 18:53
  So I'm just going to stick with my bad. 4 1/2 and try to get.
• 18:56
  Lucky and cover this number. But yeah, a lot of these books
• 18:59
  are now at 5 1/2, so we have seen this line.
• 19:02
  Tick up further toward Philly. I'm wondering I mentioned this.
• 19:05
  In the rhythm rundown. Last night on the Live.
• 19:07
  Stream like is this true? Smart money hitting Philly or is
• 19:09
  this injury report? Because Trent Williams and
• 19:12
  Pearsall are banged up and I don't think they practice.
• 19:14
  So you know, again, what's what's going on there.
• 19:17
  But still you do have. San Fran playoff dog.
• 19:19
  Wild card dog. Dog missed the postseason the
• 19:21
  previous year and we actually have rhythm with.
• 19:24
  Three models, one is plus. 5.3 which isn't great with a four
• 19:29
  and a half. Another is plus 4.8.
• 19:30
  Not great with a 4 1/2, but there's a third model.
• 19:32
  That says Niners. Should be plus 2.1.
• 19:35
  So I'm going to hopefully cross my fingers and see if we can
• 19:38
  cover this number and get a again, a bad number for me with
• 19:41
  the 4 1/2. If you haven't played it yet,
• 19:42
  you can get that 5 1/2 so. Obviously an advantage there.
• 19:46
  But then I'm actually seeing one book go to six, so really not
• 19:50
  feeling great about this one. I might have.
• 19:52
  I might have played San Fran too.
• 19:53
  Early, but we'll see if I can get.
• 19:55
  Lucky on that one last one. Sunday night.
• 19:59
  Chargers, Patriots again. This is a spot for me where I'm
• 20:03
  going to fan tax. Emotional hedge, Whatever.
• 20:05
  You want to call. It because I am a Pats fan, die
• 20:07
  hard born and raised. I remember watching the Super.
• 20:11
  Bowl. Where Pats beat the greatest.
• 20:13
  Show on turf. I was 13 years old.
• 20:15
  Next to my dad. Always remember that, that game
• 20:18
  and then the Red Sox. Breaking the Curse 2 greatest
• 20:20
  games I ever watched. With my dad.
• 20:21
  But anyway, I'm taking Chargers plus 3 1/2.
• 20:25
  What I like about this is a. Really good contrarian play
• 20:28
  because right now if you. Look at the splits here.
• 20:32
  When it comes to the Patriots game, public is all over New
• 20:35
  England 60. 5% of spread bets, however, Pat's open -4 they're
• 20:39
  down to 3 1/2 if you look at the 3 1/2 guys I mentioned.
• 20:43
  This earlier I wanted to wait and say.
• 20:44
  OK, can I wait and get a four? Again.
• 20:46
  Well, no the juice. Is on the charger side.
• 20:48
  A lot of these books are plus 3 1/2 - 110 - 1. 15 toward the
• 20:53
  Chargers. So further.
• 20:55
  Liability on the Chargers. They would be a prime time dog.
• 20:58
  They'd be a dog. Playoff dog.
• 21:00
  Wild card dog. And this is your crazy 16 and
• 21:03
  one. System which sounds insane but
• 21:04
  it's real. I checked it.
• 21:06
  Wild card dog playing an opponent who missed.
• 21:08
  The playoffs the previous season. 94% against the spread
• 21:11
  since 2017. You'd also be with a decent.
• 21:16
  Rhythm Edge chargers plus 3.8 + 3.3 + 3.2.
• 21:21
  So not huge, but you know, 3 1/2 here.
• 21:25
  You'd also have a six. Percent sharp mush edge from our
• 21:27
  friends at Juice Reel on the Chargers.
• 21:29
  So I'm I'm taking Chargers 3 1/2 here seeing if they can a
• 21:33
  perfect outcome for me. Pats win by three.
• 21:35
  My team advances. Chargers cover the 3 1/2.
• 21:38
  And then? The game that I'm most excited
• 21:41
  about. Maybe I can't.
• 21:43
  I can't wait to sweat all these games.
• 21:44
  But Monday Night Football guys, raise your hand if you got.
• 21:47
  Pittsburgh Plus 3 1/2. I hope everyone's raising their
• 21:50
  hand. Guess what, guys?
• 21:51
  They're down to three. And I'm seeing the juice on the
• 21:55
  Steelers. Plus 3 -, 115.
• 21:57
  Like it may get down to. 2 1/2. So this is just an awesome sharp
• 22:02
  reverse line move. Because.
• 22:04
  Public does not believe in Pittsburgh right now.
• 22:06
  You're getting 60% of spread bets.
• 22:07
  On the Texans. But Texans fell -3 1/2 to 3.
• 22:11
  And the juices toward Pittsburgh again, like.
• 22:13
  It gets down to 2. And a half so very.
• 22:15
  Clearly we're getting public Houston, but line going to the
• 22:18
  Steelers. Steelers match.
• 22:20
  Wild card dog playoff dog short playoff dog three or less prime
• 22:24
  time dog dog low total total. Is 38 here it's.
• 22:27
  It's falling and then also Mike Tomlin has a dog. 70 and 42
• 22:32
  against the spread. 62% in his career, all lighting up here
• 22:37
  with Pittsburgh. 2%. Sharp mush edge, nothing crazy.
• 22:40
  But a little bit. From our friends at Juice.
• 22:41
  Reel. And then our friends at Rhythm
• 22:44
  get a load of this three recommended models on the
• 22:46
  Steelers plus 1.6. 0.5. And -1.2.
• 22:53
  So basically a pick em game or even Pittsburgh favorite.
• 22:55
  So I'm loving and again, hopefully you got the hook.
• 22:58
  Plus 3 1/2. Because a lot of these books are
• 23:00
  getting down to three. Even if you haven't played it,
• 23:02
  you probably. Want to grab the three now
• 23:03
  because it. Might get down to 2 1/2 by the
• 23:06
  time we get back on the pot on Monday.
• 23:09
  So that about does it. Running through all the
• 23:12
  postseason games, pro and college here.
• 23:14
  On on a big. Friday wrapping it up here.
• 23:16
  As always, I want to start by saying #1.
• 23:19
  Thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 23:20
  you for tuning in, thank you for grinding with me in the arena.
• 23:23
  Every single day through the UPS and the.
• 23:25
  Downs, the winning days, the losing days, the days were
• 23:27
  grinding, making 0.1 units or losing -1.2 units.
• 23:32
  Again, just like in life, sports betting, there's ups and downs.
• 23:35
  So the fact that you guys. Show up TuneIn.
• 23:38
  Have a positive attitude. Despite maybe a bad beat the
• 23:40
  previous night. It means a lot to me.
• 23:42
  So thank you. Thank.
• 23:43
  You for taking the time out of your day to sweat these sharp.
• 23:46
  Contrarian plays with me. If you do enjoy the pod you want
• 23:48
  to help me grow the podcast, please would you give it a five
• 23:51
  star review? On Spotify or.
• 23:53
  ITunes leave a nice comment under the review section if you
• 23:56
  feel so inclined. Those are important.
• 23:58
  Recommend the pod to a friend. Retweet the pod when I tweet it
• 24:01
  out. Or of course, you know, click
• 24:03
  the follow. Button.
• 24:04
  That way you get alert as soon as it.
• 24:05
  Pops up each day. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 24:08
  betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting.
• 24:11
  Focusing on line movement, bet split system matches, taking a
• 24:15
  contrarian approach. Betting games based on what the
• 24:17
  date of the numbers are saying. Not what our heart and our.
• 24:19
  Bias is telling us because you listen to your heart and your
• 24:22
  bias and your. Gut everyone.
• 24:23
  Says go with your gut. Nope.
• 24:25
  Maybe in life, in certain situations.
• 24:27
  But not in sports betting. Go with what the numbers are
• 24:29
  saying. You're going to do much better
• 24:31
  long term, but if you do, enjoy. This style of betting and you
• 24:34
  want to learn more about data-driven betting?
• 24:36
  Or maybe you have a friend. Or family member or somebody who
• 24:39
  wants to get into betting or, you know, loves betting but
• 24:42
  doesn't win a lot and makes a lot of these mistakes, you know?
• 24:44
  Partly is every favorite and takes every public play.
• 24:47
  And there's Loosey Goosey with her bankroll.
• 24:49
  Well, you should go to Amazon.com.
• 24:51
  Type in the NFL sharp betting playbook.
• 24:53
  Or the Everything guide to sports betting the two books
• 24:55
  that. I've written very proud of both
• 24:56
  IF. You want to grab.
• 24:57
  One or the other. Bring them the sports book.
• 24:59
  I'll sign them for you, I'll buy you a beer and we'll.
• 25:01
  We'll sweat. Well, we'll flying.
• 25:03
  V the Ducks here tonight. Next, have you downloaded Rhythm
• 25:06
  and Juice? Reel yet my 2.
• 25:07
  Favorite sports betting apps? They help me win.
• 25:09
  They're going to help. You win whether it's.
• 25:11
  Rhythm with their AI backed models and.
• 25:12
  Predictions for game bets. And player props or.
• 25:15
  Juice Reel with the Robo. Jackson best bet.
• 25:16
  Picks the sharp mush indicators. The arbitrage plays.
• 25:19
  The shop for the best line features or.
• 25:22
  If you'd like to support. The pod and Tip your podcast
• 25:24
  host. You can get the ASG.
• 25:26
  POD official best bets. From the Juice Reel app it
• 25:29
  costs. $4.99 a week, 5 bucks tip jar.
• 25:33
  Again, this pot is free if you. Want to let me know you
• 25:35
  appreciate it? Pay for those those best bets.
• 25:38
  It would make me happy. And my buddy Ricky Gold, who
• 25:40
  runs Juice Reel, make him happy as well.
• 25:43
  But give both Juice Reel and Rhythm a five star review in the
• 25:46
  App Store. Next you have a live odds page.
• 25:49
  If you don't, you need. One or will you have one but
• 25:51
  it's too expensive and or maybe. It's free, but it's.
• 25:54
  Slow and you don't know where the data is coming from and it
• 25:56
  never updates in time. It doesn't have live in game
• 25:58
  wagering well. You should switch over to.
• 26:00
  Odds logic just go to. Oddslogic.com/josh. 123 make
• 26:06
  sure it's slash, Josh. One 2-3 at the.
• 26:08
  End you get. A7 day free trial. 50% off your
• 26:11
  first month of service. Next, do you have Novig?
• 26:16
  Novig is a sports betting. Exchange.
• 26:17
  It's not a sports betting app. So it's not a sports book.
• 26:21
  Instead, you're going to get. Way better juice prices.
• 26:23
  So for example, I'm popping up Novig right now for the the
• 26:27
  Ducks. In the Hoosiers you can get
• 26:29
  Oregon. Plus 3 1/2 -. 121 or Indiana -3
• 26:34
  1/2. Plus 113 over. 48 1/2 - 1 O 4
• 26:38
  under 48 1/2 + 100 you're getting.
• 26:40
  Better juice prices. Because you're going up against.
• 26:43
  Other sports. Betters and not the house, so
• 26:45
  download Novig and. When you fund your account,
• 26:49
  there's a little promo code. There, put in Josh 123, you'll
• 26:52
  get an extra 25 bucks. And then of course, last call,
• 26:55
  last call, 22 trains leaving the station, last call for the
• 26:58
  Applebaum survivor. Contest again.
• 27:01
  We're going to have some fun here between now and the Super
• 27:03
  Bowl. If you can pick winners and
• 27:05
  survive, you could. Turn 25 bucks into. 5600 so
• 27:10
  please sign up. You can click that link on the
• 27:12
  top of my profile at Josh under Score Insights and I'd love for
• 27:15
  one of you guys. To make some cheddar here as we
• 27:18
  as we steam into the new year. So that about does it everybody,
• 27:22
  of course, two final thoughts, one whether.
• 27:23
  I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City Twin.
• 27:26
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire
• 27:28
  Foxwoods. Or Mohegan Sun down in.
• 27:29
  Connecticut The Encore in Boston Plain Ridge Park.
• 27:32
  Casino MGM Springfield and Nash. And my neck of the.
• 27:35
  Woods on the border of Massachusetts and Nashua, NH or
• 27:38
  of course. Out in the desert where the true
• 27:40
  grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners
• 27:43
  with lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
• 27:45
  Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays, jumping in the stadium
• 27:48
  swim pool when he cash a big ticket at Circa, wherever it may
• 27:51
  be. You're going to show me?
• 27:52
  That Ole Miss ticket, again, they had it in their hands and
• 27:55
  just just lost it at the end. Man up 20 to 19.
• 28:00
  Up 2724 only to. Lose by 4.
• 28:03
  When you have a 3 1/2, so frustrating.
• 28:06
  Pour one out, but man, hell of a game.
• 28:08
  If you can get to a point where you lose your bet and you're
• 28:10
  mad, but you are able to. Admit wow, what a what a great
• 28:13
  sporting event like that's why you love sports.
• 28:15
  That's why you love. Football, it was one of.
• 28:16
  Those games last night, it just would have been a little bit
• 28:18
  better if Ole Miss could have. Could have lost by three.
• 28:21
  Anyway, coming off an O and one or A1 and OA winning.
• 28:24
  Night a losing night, a hot streak, a cold streak, somewhere
• 28:27
  in the middle. We're always grinding.
• 28:28
  Guys never get. Too high or too low?
• 28:30
  When things are good, don't expect.
• 28:32
  Betting to be easy. When things are are not going
• 28:34
  your way, don't get down on yourself.
• 28:36
  Stay even keeled. Play the long term approach,
• 28:39
  which of course. Means we're looking for those.
• 28:41
  System matches against the public with.
• 28:43
  The House with the Pros flat bat.
• 28:45
  Avoid parlays and get that CLV. If we can do that.
• 28:48
  We're going to be successful. Sports bettors, so have a great
• 28:51
  Friday night everybody have an even better weekend.
• 28:53
  Hope you enjoyed the NFL. Playoffs here.
• 28:56
  Let's get these dogs to. Bark.
• 28:57
  Knock on wood. And of course, I'll be right
• 29:00
  back at it on Monday for Episode 4. 30 of the all systems go
• 29:04
  sports betting podcast. Powered by rhythm.
• 29:07
  Good luck everybody and enjoy the sweats.
• 29:10
  Good luck.